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0:21Welcome, everybody, to the Fantasy Pros Podcast. I am your host, Chris Welsh.
0:24I am joined by Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice.
0:27Today, we're talking about 7 players who could lose your fantasy football league.
0:31And whenever I think about winning and losing, I like to quote Trent Dilfer, you can't lose football games and still win in the NFL.
0:38I think that applies to fantasy as well. So today, we're talking about players to avoid.
0:43Erickson's got 3. Pat's got 3. I'll have 1 at the end.
0:46And then at the very end, we'll talk about the one you guys are most scared of being wrong about.
0:52Nice, quick 15 or so minute episodes. We'll get right into it.
0:56Erickson, we'll start with you. Who are you? I'm not necessarily scared to draft.
1:00What do you think could lose your fantasy football league?
1:03Your pick number 1. Christian McCaffrey. Coming off a 450-touch season that led all players in 2025.
1:08The last 13 years, only one running back was a top 5 fantasy football running back the next year after seeing at least 400 plus touches.
1:16Christian McCaffrey will already turn 30 years old. Running backs age 27 or older who led the NFL in touches.
1:21That's happened 6 times. 0 of them have finished as top 5 the following year.
1:26Only 2 running backs finished as fantasy football RB1s, just top 12, the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013.
1:33Ezekiel Elliott, it's the only one to do that to actually finish inside the top 5 the following season.
1:38The other 10 busts, injuries, regression, volume drop-offs, etc.
1:41They did not deliver the high ADP cost to acquire them.
1:44And we've done this same old song and dance with Christian McCaffrey before.
1:48He has led the NFL in touches twice already in his career.
1:51The following seasons, he finished 53rd and 72nd at running back.
1:55So I get that the upside case for CMC is, well, he could be the number 1 scoring player.
2:00Then why doesn't he go number 1 overall in drafts?
2:03Because there's a fear with him of a risk factor with Christian McCaffrey, who is already dealing with tightness.
2:09Right? It's already begun. So for me, he is a player that yes, the upside, I get it.
2:14I get why people want to draft him and I get why he goes so high.
2:19But for me, there's a process with fading the guy that has the most touches the year before.
2:24And it's worked time and time again. And specifically with CMC, it's worked successfully to fade this particular player.
2:30So based on where he goes, I would much rather have James Cook, a player that is in his prime, plays in
2:36a high power offense and is way less likely to miss games in 2026.
2:40So McCaffrey showed signs of decline in terms of rushing fourth lowest rushing yards over expectation per attempt last year, career low yards per attempt at 3.8.
2:48And the 49ers overall feel like a very fragile bet in 2026.
2:52They have one of the most oldest offensive lines in the NFL.
2:55Every single day, it seems like another guy is pulling up limp with a hamstring injury or tightness or whatever.
3:01And it's just an offense that I mean, I think it's going to be more disappointing than rewarding in 2026 for fantasy football.
3:08And that starts at the top with CMC. Yeah, starting hot.
3:11The RB3 going eighth or eighth overall. Pat, what do you think?
3:15I totally get it. The historical precedents are scary and McCaffrey could absolutely lose your league as like a mid first round pick.
3:21But, you know, you're quoting Trent Dilfer, Matt. I'm going to quote Ricky Bobby.
3:25We're going to quote all the greats of sports.
3:28If you ain't first, you're last. And we know that if Christian McCaffrey does stay healthy, he's going to score a lot of fantasy points.
3:35So I'm I'm still willing to make that bet, especially if I'm in a league against tough competition.
3:41Less so maybe in a home league where I feel a little bit better about my chances and I don't need to take that risk.
3:48But against sharks. Yeah, I'll still make that bet in the mid first round.
3:52Yeah, that makes sense. So who's your first one?
3:55It's for she rice whose ADP has been falling a little bit, but it's still in the third round.
4:00Everyone knows there's injury risk and character risk here.
4:03Rishi Rice had cleanup surgery on his knee in the spring and had to do his rehab in a Texas jail because
4:10he violated his probation for smoking pot and was on probation for fleeing the scene of a multi car accident that he caused, resulting in injuries to others.
4:18Here's the other thing. Chiefs offense has been pretty average over the last three years since Rishi Rice came into the league.
4:24I'm not saying that's the fault of Rishi Rice.
4:27It isn't. But why continue to run your offense the same way when it isn't working?
4:32Like Patrick Mahomes averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt over his first five seasons.
4:36He averaged just shy of forty eight hundred passing yards per season over that stretch over the last three years.
4:42Seven point oh yards per attempt more than a yard fewer.
4:45He's averaged about a thousand fewer passing yards per season.
4:48I think Kenneth Walker is going to play a role in the chief screen game this year, and that could reduce the
4:54hefty volume of screen passes Rice has been getting.
4:57I think a healthy Xavier Worthy could cut into Rice's target share and maybe Cyrus Allen becomes a thing.
5:02I just think it's risky to assume Rishi Rice is going to keep up this PPR scam that he's been running in Kansas City the last few years.
5:11Yeah, going as the wide receiver 12 27th overall and it feels like every day there's a clip of him in training camp looking not good.
5:18So Erickson, are you are you in on this?
5:21Are you in on not necessarily fading, but being scared of Rishi Rice?
5:25Definitely scared of Rishi Rice. I don't think anybody clicks Rishi Rice and thinks man feels so great about that pick right?
5:31He's just like like no qualms about it like you never feel good about the click.
5:36Now, I think the price is pretty palatable where it goes, where he's being drafted, especially as he kind of continues to
5:42fall because of him not looking great on post routes.
5:45Well, if he's running post routes, then you've already lost the bet because that's not what you want Rishi Rice doing.
5:51And I think that the risk concern with Rice comes down to he's a player that we like upside for because of his role in the chiefs offense.
6:00But like Fitz outlined, if that role changes similar to when we see running backs busts because we over project their roles
6:06and end up just not being that good. I don't think there's a debate about Rice being like a top 12 real life wide receiver.
6:14The reason he's in this conversation with his ADP is because he gets peppered with targets, especially in the red zone where
6:20he was top five in red zone targets per game last year.
6:24And that's one of the easiest ways to access a extremely high ceiling and fantasy football.
6:28So I still think that he is going to be the red zone guy when they throw if it's not a handoff to Kenneth Walker.
6:36So I think there is still upside with him.
6:38And I think that he's palatable where he goes around that three, four turn.
6:42However, you do get the stomach aches whenever you draft Rashi Rice.
6:46And he's not someone that I feel like I need to go out of my way to draft, but it's rather OK, Rossi Rice fell to me.
6:54I'll take my I'll scoop him up. Yeah, I like to call it like a Pepto pick where you should have it
7:00like a shot of Pepto when you're drafting some of these guys, which I do think applies to your next one, even
7:07though I do kind of like this running back.
7:09I was talking about him last week. But Erickson, who's your third one or sorry, third one for before we go to break.
7:16Quinchot Judkins running back for the Cleveland Browns. So I want to preface it with just the fact that he's coming off a fibula fracture.
7:23Ryan Heath has done a lot of great job over at fancy boys just identifying players that come off of this injury.
7:30Average negative six point fantasy points per game the following season.
7:33So blindly fading these guys off of these massive leg injuries, whether the reports say they look great, whether they look up to speed.
7:40Just you blindly fade these guys and you usually come out in the green.
7:44So that's kind of like the number one part when it comes to Judkins or my opening statement.
7:50But then you look at the optics of the situation.
7:53The Cleveland Browns could be the arguably the worst offense in the NFL in 2026.
7:57And that would surprise nobody based on the quarterback battle they have going on between Deshaun Watson and Shader Sanders.
8:03You have a brand new offensive line where there's optimism that, OK, this can be better than last year, but it still
8:09it still takes time for the unit to gel.
8:12And we look at the two opening matchups. They're both on the road against fierce run defenses last year.
8:18Jaguars were one of the best run defenses. That's who they're facing in week one at Jacksonville and a Vita Bay is suiting up for Tampa Bay.
8:25That's the next matchup in Tampa Bay in week two bad offensive lines don't travel on the road very well.
8:31And a brand new starting five that has never played an NFL game before being thrown to the wolves like that behind bad shoddy quarterback play.
8:39I mean, Judkins can get as many carries as he want.
8:42I mean, that's what he did last year and he could barely crack the top 24.
8:47So I think that there's a chance that yeah, he can meet his ADP, but he feels like a player that you're
8:53going to put in your lineup and he's not going to scream any points, but you're going to feel obligated to keep
9:00starting him every single week because well, he got 15 carries.
9:03Like I got to keep playing this guy, but he's not scoring touchdowns.
9:07He's not ripping off big runs. He's not playing as many passing downs because Dylan Sampson, I think is a great pass
9:13catching running back in his own right. Todd Munkin took Derek Henry off the field to play justice.
9:19Hill people and you don't think that he'll take off Quinchot Judkins after we saw Dylan Sampson, the electricity of catching passes in that preseason game.
9:26Oh, baby, I would rather have Dylan Sampson 100 picks later than Quinchot Judkins.
9:30I think that he's facing a massive uphill battle out of the gates and he wasn't even efficient last year.
9:36Again, RB 26 of fantasy points per game. He ranked 38th in juke rate, 55th in yards per touch, 52nd in yards
9:43created per touch, 27th in breakaway runs, 40th in explosive run rate.
9:46So yeah, they can give him as many carries as he wants.
9:50I just don't think it's going to result in that many fantasy points.
9:54I think it's going to end up hurting fantasy managers more than helping them.
9:58Yeah, and I get it. Even though I like I said, I talked about liking him last week.
10:03It makes total sense. And Pat, you were the low man on him.
10:07So I'm guessing you're in agreement here. Fading him for all the same reasons Erickson is.
10:12I've not drafted him any league. Don't anticipate drafting him in any of my remaining drafts.
10:16And every time I see him go in a draft, I'm in, I just think, oh, good.
10:21I like it. Well, before we get to the next, the next pick here, I'm talking about players that can lose your league.
10:28One way to kind of figure out where you think they're going to go in your draft, aside from just looking at
10:35ADP, use the draft simulator and practice makes perfect.
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10:52And Pat, let's get your this is your second one.
10:55What do you got? It's Cam Scadaboo. And I have to admit, I feel like kind of a sap for being worried
11:01about what the signing of Najee Harris might mean for Cam Scadaboo.
11:05But I'm worried about what the signing of Najee Harris might mean for Cam Scadaboo.
11:09Maybe the Najee signing is more about Tyrone Tracy, who blew a blocking assignment in the Giants preseason opener and almost got Jackson Dart hospitalized as a result.
11:17Or it might be the Giants way of expressing concern about Scadaboo's ability to stay healthy.
11:22The injury that he sustained last season was no joke.
11:25An open dislocation, a tibia fracture, significant ligament damage that required emergency surgery.
11:29Maybe he's not quite as quick this year post-surgery.
11:32And Scadaboo's game was more about toughness than quickness to begin with.
11:35This isn't really a guy who can afford to lose a step.
11:39I just worry that anyone who buys Scadaboo based on the hope that he's going to be a true workhorse who's going
11:45to play all three downs and be the goal linebacker and get passing down work.
11:49Maybe that's just a little too aspirational coming off the injury he had.
11:53Yeah, it makes sense. And I thought it was a similar injury to Judkins.
11:57Erickson, correct me if I'm wrong, so I'm sure that same stat would apply to him.
12:02Yep. Yeah, it applies to both guys. So you blindly fade those players that come off these major leg injuries and usually
12:09you end up being more right than wrong. I think it does open the conversation to about there may be a chance
12:15to buy these talented second year running backs at a point.
12:18But I think that we're looking at weeks one, two, three, four, where you're going to get underwhelming performances and frustrated fantasy managers.
12:25And that's where starting out of the gates is so important.
12:28You want to start winning your fantasy matchups. And when you identify players that it's a uphill battle, like those are players
12:35that cause you to lose very, very often. Yeah, it makes sense.
12:38And the game, the hot start point, 100 percent with your next one.
12:42I think you're going to make a lot of people mad because he's actually a popular sleeper.
12:47But who do you have for your for your last one?
12:50Well, that's why, because he's a player that I don't hate, but I just hate his price.
12:55I hate the ADP of Luther Burden. And this is something that I've gone back and looked at all my players to
13:02avoid articles because I don't need to sell the positive spin on Luther Burden.
13:06His head coach literally said, I want to buy stock in this player.
13:10Well, if you guys know anything about stock market, as I push my glasses up, anything about the stock market, it doesn't always hit right away.
13:17Like sometimes this takes time for you to actually see the return on your investment.
13:22And I think that's the case with Luther Burden.
13:24I think that out of the gates, it's not going to be wheels up.
13:28Oh, my God, I'm on Ross St. Brown 2.0, especially with now that he's dealing with a soft tissue injury like he did last offseason.
13:36He has a groin injury. He's missing the rest of the preseason.
13:39He's not practicing in full. He's expected to be back for week one.
13:43But in his absence, what's been happening in Bears camp?
13:46A lot of Colson Loveland, a lot of positive about Roman Duns.
13:50I end the foot. It's good to go. So I think that his ADP also hasn't moved enough when I know I've
13:56talked about him as a player to avoid or bus player.
13:59Player in recent episodes or episodes recorded earlier this offseason before his injury.
14:03I think the injury does make it that much more scary to draft a player like Luther Burden, expecting him to immediately
14:10return as a top 24 wide receiver. It's basically where he's going at the back end of fantasy wide receiver two, because he's got elite target competition.
14:18Roman Duns is a former top 10 pick and Burden was nowhere to be found last year when Odunzay was healthy.
14:24It wasn't until Odunzay went down, was playing with an injured foot when we started Luther Burden to see more offensive playing time in the offense.
14:31He only played over 60% of the snaps in three games last season.
14:35So what if he's in a role where he's only playing in 11 personnel?
14:39He's not on the field in two wide receiver sets.
14:42Now, that's not what I would necessarily project. But I do know that the Bears want to use a lot of these heavy tight end sets.
14:50We saw that a little bit in the preseason game where, yeah, we want to be able to run the football effectively.
14:56We want to be able to establish dominance at the line of scrimmage with these big formations.
15:01And what if it's Odunzay? That's that isolated wide receiver and not Luther Burden.
15:05So for me, going back to ADP data that I've looked at, wide receivers that are really expensive, the highest projected players without an actual true breakout.
15:13Because last year, I mean, the way you talk about Luther Burden, you'd think that he would have finished like top 30.
15:20He was wide receiver 48 last year as a rookie, not a top 30 receiver.
15:24And it's all based on his per route efficiency, not actually fantasy points.
15:28Like that's what we're citing. Not anything that's about the game we're playing here with fantasy points.
15:33He was wide receiver 48 and he finished the season with four red zone targets.
15:38So ultimately, even if he continues to be super efficient on a per route basis, if he doesn't score those touchdowns and
15:44it's actually Odunzay and Loveland, who I think profile as more of a red zone presence, then I think I'm going to
15:50be okay fading Luther Burden here as the wide receiver 24.
15:54Maybe he'll be a player I look to buy low on later in the season.
15:58But for me, I can't get another price, especially when he's going around other players.
16:02I really like Parker Washington, Christian Watson, Odunzay, Jameson Williams.
16:05Aren't we just hoping that he could be Jameson Williams?
16:08Like, or you could just draft Jameson Williams, another player that I think is also a very rating ADP, someone that I
16:15wasn't as high on earlier in the offseason. But his price has kind of come down and I've kind of been more
16:21open to taking him as a high end wide receiver three.
16:25Yeah, it makes sense. It's kind of like the he could be a boat joke from from family guy.
16:30It's like, well, we already have these boats that you can draft at this position anyways.
16:35So, Pat, what do you think about Burden? I can't go with Erickson here.
16:39I'm only about at ADP with Burden and I do have Jameson Williams ranked higher.
16:43I'm in the minority there. But they kind of slow rolled Burden last year.
16:47But now I think the genie's out of the bottle.
16:50I believe in the player. Like, I think he's just so quick that he's such a hard cover for NFL cornerbacks.
16:57And I think it's a skinny target tree in Chicago.
17:00I trust the play caller Ben Johnson. And I think with the Bears defense, they're going to be involved in a lot of shootouts.
17:07So I'm OK with drafting Burden where he's going.
17:09Well, for your last one, we got a former Bear.
17:12So what do you have to say for your last one?
17:15DJ Moore. And I know we look good in the Bills' first preseason game.
17:19I get that it's appealing to have the guy who's probably going to be Josh Allen's number one receiver.
17:25But I think it's a mistake to think DJ Moore is going to be what Stefan Diggs was for Buffalo a few years ago.
17:32DJ Moore hasn't been good the last two years.
17:35He's averaged 1.44 and 1.24 yards per route run in Chicago the last two seasons.
17:39And by the way, DJ Moore hasn't really ever been a prolific touchdown scorer.
17:43He's had 41 touchdowns in 131 career games, 5.1 per season.
17:47And Josh Allen might not really help with DJ Moore's touchdown count.
17:50Josh Allen had two fewer TD passes than Caleb Williams last year and has thrown fewer than 30 TD passes each of the last three seasons.
17:58I just worry we're paying for what DJ Moore used to be when he was regularly pumping out 1,000-yard seasons.
18:04He hasn't had one since 2023, but I am a little scared to fade DJ Moore because I used to love him.
18:10And we've seen him click in a Joe Brady offense.
18:13So, yeah, it's a bit of a scary fade.
18:16I'm just not ready to pay up for him at what the ADP is right now.
18:20Yeah, it makes sense. And he's going wide receiver 22, 58 overall.
18:24He looks pretty close to Luther Burden. So, Erickson, what do you think about DJ Moore?
18:29Any time you have a wide receiver with a new quarterback, it always invites a big bust potential.
18:34Even when you think about, oh, it's an upgrade.
18:36You thought Trevor Lawrence was an upgrade for Brian Thomas Jr.
18:40How'd that work out, right? So, I understand that the bust risk with DJ Moore, I think he's more of a floor play to me just in general.
18:48I mean, that's kind of what his body work of his career, you just look at everything.
18:53And if that fall off with Chicago the last couple of years is real and not about him being disinterested or them
18:59phasing him out of the offense, then you do invite a lot of risk.
19:04So, DJ Moore is not a player that I've actually been like fading, but not a player that I've been going out
19:10of my way to draft in any capacity. So, I think I'm kind of lockstep here with Fitzy.
19:15Yeah, that makes sense. I feel like the last two years we've gotten bamboozled thinking that, like, of course, Josh Allen's going
19:22to support a high-end wide receiver when he just hasn't.
19:25And so, yeah, I'll be quick with mine. And Jeremiah Love is the guy that I'm kind of scared to draft going
19:31as the running back 12, 38th overall. I was kind of already out on him even before the injury, and that was
19:38just kind of icing on the cake. Now, he has gone down a little bit since the injury, so ADP's taken that into account.
19:45But a high ankle is scary for a rookie.
19:47That's scary. But the biggest thing for me was just, like, Tyler Algier.
19:51We've seen him do this with a highly-drafted rookie before, just take away all the touchdowns and stuff.
19:56Not that Tyler Algier obviously is as good as Bijan Robinson.
20:00Obviously, he's not as good as Jeremiah Love, but he's a good short yardage back.
20:04Last year, he had 10 carries inside the 10.
20:07Bijan Robinson had 11, and he converted more of those.
20:10He converted five. Bijan converted three. Obviously, different player, but he's good in that role.
20:14We're not expecting the Cardinals to have a good offense.
20:17They're going to throw the ball a ton. And while Love is a fantastic pass-catching back, they have a lot of mouths
20:23to feed with Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and then, obviously, Trey McBride.
20:27And then you talked about getting to a hot start.
20:30The thing with me, he's got a brutal schedule.
20:33He starts with the Chargers week one, then the Seahawks, 49ers, Giants, Lions, Rams, and Broncos.
20:38That's his first seven weeks. That's like five brutal matchups.
20:41You can keep reading the entire Cardinals schedule. It doesn't get better, dude.
20:44Yeah. Yeah, I mean, and you're right. But that first seven weeks, I mean, that's like, when are you starting this guy?
20:51So, yeah, I'm scared about Love. I feel like he's going to win you with leagues in the future.
20:56He's awesome. I just don't think it's going to be this year.
21:00So that's who I thought for mine. In terms of your guys' three picks, Erickson, we'll start with you.
21:05Who are you the most concerned about being wrong on?
21:08I'm trusting the process. But fading CMC. So he is initially the player I thought I was going to bring up here.
21:15But it's actually Luther Burton. Because I agree that the talent is so there.
21:19The upside with him in a Ben Johnson offense is so there.
21:23But going back to trusting the process of something that has worked.
21:26When you fade the most expensive wide receiver without a true season-long breakout, it works out for you.
21:31Because those are the players that bust at the highest rate.
21:35And players like Rashi Rice. Technically, he has not had a true breakout.
21:38So he would qualify as one of those players.
21:41Obviously, on a per-game basis, it's a little bit different.
21:44Christian Watts is another player. That popular breakout. But hasn't really put it together.
21:48When these guys get really expensive, they have a very high bust rate.
21:52And for me, Luther Burton kind of checks off most of those boxes of, hey, this is a player that just doesn't
21:58really meet their expectations because it's so high. So I'm going to say Luther Burton.
22:03And hopefully that he doesn't destroy me in the first half of the season.
22:07Acknowledging that he could have a really strong second half of the season when he's fully healthy.
22:12Yeah, I get it. Pat, what about you? DJ Moore, because he could have the season.
22:17Stefan Diggs was having for the Bills three, four, five years ago where he has 100 catches, 1,400 yards.
22:22And I faded that. Yeah, it always feels better to talk about people you're high on than people that you're low on
22:29because it just feels a lot worse when you get those wrong.
22:32But before we get out of here, I want to talk to you guys about Fantasy Fest.
22:37Get ready for your fantasy draft with Fantasy Fest on Wednesday, August 26th, 3 p.m.
22:42Eastern. Plus League Winners, a mock draft giveaway, tons of stuff going on.
22:45It's four hours of live draft prep followed by our Twitch after party.
22:49Don't miss the Fantasy Fest on Fantasy Pros. Gentlemen, this was fun.
22:53Appreciate you for joining me on this one. Hopefully these seven players don't do well.
22:57We all can victory lap. But everybody make sure to like, comment, subscribe, all that good stuff.
23:02And have a good one. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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23:58I'm Nick Turturro. You probably know me from NYPD Blue, The Longest Yard, or Spike Lee's Black Klansman.
24:04And on my new podcast, Delivering Happiness with Nick Turturro, I deliver pizza to a new guest.
24:09I've shared a slice with everyone, from Seth Rollins.
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24:29And listen now. I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
24:34You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
24:37Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
24:43You're not hired just to fill time and space.
24:45You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:53I'm Mange Shachikular, and I'm back with a new season of my podcast, Skyline Drive.
24:58This time, I talk to scientists, biopunks, curmudgeons, blues owners, super seniors, and Goa's top cryotherapy lab to try to understand this
25:04obsession with living forever and what it means for all of us.
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25:11I'd say probably start bone smashing. That doesn't work.
25:14Make it look more defined. They say it works.
25:16I don't know. Listen to Skyline Drive, How to Live Forever on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
25:23This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.