Week 4 NFL Storylines: Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas, Drake Maye’s Rebound & Bold Calls (Ep. 2235)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 2, 2026
Published
Fri, October 2, 2026
25
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock PurdyDrake MayeBrandon AiyukKirk CousinsBaker MayfieldBo NixBrock BowersBryce YoungCase KeenumChristian McCaffreyFernando MendozaGeorge PickensJalon DanielsJoe Burrow
Player analysis
Player insights
Baker Mayfield
NegativeRole57:52
With Jalen Daniels starting, there is speculation about whether he will play well enough to make Buccaneers fans question the team's financial commitment to Baker Mayfield.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection45:55
Bo Nix is described as a roller coaster quarterback who plays poorly when leading or under pressure, but performs significantly better when trailing and playing off-script.
Insight pageBrandon Aiyuk
NegativeUsage31:49
The hosts discuss Brandon Aiyuk's absence from the 49ers' offense, noting that Kyle Shanahan is finding success with other receivers like Jordan Watkins while Aiyuk remains out of the picture.
Insight pageNegativeUsage33:01
The source expresses confusion and concern regarding Brandon Aiyuk's lack of public engagement or reaction to team news, noting he has been absent from the conversation while the 49ers deal with wide receiver injuries.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveUsage39:51
The Raiders offense has been humming since getting Brock Bowers back last week; he is described as a tough cover for opposing defenses.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveProjection29:06
Brock Purdy was named NFC Player of the Month and is currently second in MVP odds. Andrew Erickson notes that since Week 15 of last year, Purdy has scored more fantasy points than any other quarterback. Despite a tougher matchup against the Broncos, Purdy is expected to remain a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Insight pagePositiveProjection35:31
The source praises Brock Purdy as a remarkable success story and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, highlighting his resourcefulness and ability to succeed in Kyle Shanahan's system despite the 49ers' ongoing wide receiver injury issues.
Insight pagePositiveProjection45:50
Brock Purdy has been fantastic and is considered to have a wide margin of advantage in the quarterback battle against Bo Nix.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeMatchup52:26
Bryce Young faces a challenge against the Lions' pass rush, specifically Aiden Hutchinson, while dealing with a banged-up offensive line.
Insight pageCase Keenum
NegativeRole20:25
Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson discuss the Bears' quarterback situation, with Fitzmaurice betting on Case Keenum to start in Week 4 despite Erickson's belief that Tyson Bagent is the better long-term option. Fitzmaurice notes Keenum played mistake-free football against the Eagles but warns that repeating that performance may be difficult.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage45:33
Christian McCaffrey's usage has been described as weird so far this season for the 49ers.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection12:21
Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice agree that Drake Maye is currently playing poor football, with Erickson dismissing the shoulder injury as an excuse for his struggles. While Maye faces tough defenses, Erickson expects him to look better in upcoming matchups against the Dolphins and Jets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection46:51
The source maintains a positive outlook on Drake Maye, suggesting that fantasy managers should remain patient as he is expected to demonstrate his high-level quarterback talent in an upcoming game, potentially serving as a 'circle the wagons' moment for the Patriots.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout55:36
The source expects a 'get right' game for Drake Maye against the Bills, citing the Bills' poor coverage grades against wide receivers and running backs.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
NegativeRole43:34
The Raiders' season is focused on the cultural reset and the eventual transition to Fernando Mendoza as the starting quarterback.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveBreakout3:27
Andrew Erickson highlights that George Pickens 'absolutely smashed' last season after being traded from the Steelers to the Cowboys, suggesting that the Cowboys' willingness to acquire talented players from Pittsburgh has been a successful strategy.
Insight pageJalon Daniels
NegativeProjection57:17
Undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels is set to make his first NFL start against the Packers, becoming the first of his rookie class to start a game.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection59:00
Joe Burrow is coming off a game where the Bengals' offense looked significantly better and is heating up for a potential shootout against the Jaguars.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveRole60:40
Fitzmaurice suggests that Jeremiah Smith and Ladd McConkey would form a strong receiving duo for Justin Herbert to throw to in the future.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeDepth Chart42:02
There are unsubstantiated rumors floating around that Justin Jefferson is quietly asking to be traded, which the source speculates could be a splash move for a team like the Raiders.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeProjection43:43
The source criticizes Kirk Cousins for his tendency to throw short of the chains on third-and-long situations.
Insight pagePositiveProjection63:53
The source admits to being wrong about Kirk Cousins being 'washed,' noting that Cousins is currently on pace for 51 passing touchdowns and is consistently making plays for the Raiders.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveInjury53:53
Puka Nacua appears to be trending toward playing in the upcoming game against the Eagles, which the source views as a positive development for the Rams' offense.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveUsage60:52
Saquon Barkley is identified as the only player on the Eagles offense currently showing 'juice' and the ability to rip off big plays, though his production is being hampered by a declining offensive line.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
PositiveRole20:25
Andrew Erickson argues that Tyson Bagent should be the Bears' starter because he is the better quarterback and has a full week of preparation. Chris Welsh suggests that the Bears should consider trading Bagent for equity given his contract status through 2027 and the team's depth at the position.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. I've been hearing for decades that the markets can solve climate change.
0:06Today we have more incentives for market solutions than ever and emissions are rising.
0:10On this season of Drilled Carbon Cowboys, the story of three market solutions colliding in one multinational boondoggle.
0:15You gotta give Bruce and the guys credit. They're Republicans.
0:18They don't give a s*** about any of these stuff.
0:21Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:25What's up friends and welcome in to the tailgate.
0:28I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, and a chock full of week four and NFL news to get to.
0:34We are going to be making some big calls.
0:37We're going to be breaking down some big games and there's some big news that's floating around.
0:42Thank you guys for hanging out with us as always.
0:45If you enjoy the tailgate, make sure you are subscribed on YouTube where we have crossed the threshold.
0:50We're going to be doing our giveaway here in just a tiny bit and then announcing the next one.
0:56So make sure you guys are locked in with us.
0:59We have a ton of fun here. You guys do a fantastic job.
1:03And you two fine gentlemen, I love seeing your faces.
1:06Erickson, I told you before, Erickson's got a very like billionaire, maybe villain vibe where he's like, yes, bring me all of it.
1:13I don't want just a meal from the restaurant.
1:15Buy the restaurant. That's what you have a look for.
1:18I love the hair. I love the look. But let's not talk about your billionaire villainy ways.
1:23Let's talk about a big trade that went down in the NFL just last night.
1:28The Joey Porter saga has continued. Apparently, all it takes, this is a great thing for the NFL to know, all it
1:34takes for your back to heal is a trade.
1:37That's it. And Joey Porter Jr. has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
1:41Cowboys are sending a second round pick and a conditional sixth round pick to the Steelers.
1:46And I will go through the big, crazy trades that these two teams have put together.
1:50But Erickson, we'll start with you. Why do the Steelers hate paying their players?
1:55Because they just continuously ship up. If you want money, you got to get out of here.
2:00So why bad organizations stay bad? Not to say the Steelers have been a bad organization.
2:04Obviously, a lot of success for Pittsburgh over the years.
2:07But more recently, yeah, that has really been the case where you have super talented players like a George Pickens that doesn't
2:14necessarily see eye to eye with the head coach, has some antics in terms of he's not the greatest teammate, etc., effort issues.
2:21And then he goes to Dallas and absolutely smashes last season.
2:24So I think that this is another opportunity where the Dallas Cowboys are thinking, well, last time we traded with the Steelers, it worked out.
2:32Let's just keep doing it. Let's just roll the dice one more time and see what happens.
2:37So I think it's a good move by the Dallas Cowboys.
2:40Obviously, their secondary has been bad and also dealing with a ton of injuries.
2:44We knew Joey Porter Jr. was going to get dealt at some point.
2:48And I think that Dallas was smart because they knew that there was a market for him.
2:53The Lions were potentially in the market for a Joey Porter Jr.
2:57based on how their secondary has played this season.
2:59So I think it was smart by Dallas to get ahead of this, get a cornerback that they can immediately throw in there, be part of their defense.
3:08So, yeah, dude, back injuries, man. Just got to get traded.
3:11Get a new contract. It's amazing what a new contract will do to your back.
3:15I mean, tell me about it. My back's hurting right now, so I'm with you.
3:20Fitzy, what does this mean for the Cowboys defense overall?
3:23And also, what does this mean for the Cowboys and how they approach this?
3:27Because they didn't want to pay Micah Parsons and they shipped him off.
3:31And now they've got just a collection of players that want these deals.
3:35They've got like 20-something plus unrestricted free agents coming up at the end of the year.
3:39So, I mean, I guess it's a little forward thinking.
3:42But, you know, where do they go from there?
3:45And then what does this actually mean for this defense and them as contenders?
3:49Yeah, you could question the Cowboys' long-term approach to how they handle the contracts of their players and the renewal.
3:55And they put themselves in a lot of bad spots.
3:58But I have to respect how they went out and got what they needed.
4:02They are not shy about addressing needs in season.
4:05And we saw that last year with the Quinn and Williams deal on defense.
4:09And now, I mean, they were hurting in the secondary.
4:12Kobe Durant with a hamstring injury. I think Savone Revell, second-year player, not practicing this week.
4:17So, two cornerbacks potentially out. Malik Hooker also, I think, not available this week.
4:21So, their secondary was just decimated. And I don't know how quickly Porter is going to be able to get ready if
4:28he plays this week, plays a limited number of snaps.
4:31But they needed him in a big way. And he's going to make this defense better.
4:35Like, he is a quality cover man. And, like, bravo to the Cowboys for going and doing this.
4:41Compare that to my Packers who are trying to patch up their offensive line by signing three street free agents in one
4:47week to try to fix the guard position. I mean, I would rather get a player of Joey Porter Jr.'s caliber than, you know, 36-year-old retired guards.
4:55Was Joey Porter Jr. the – because he was the 33rd overall pick.
4:59So, the first pick in the second round, I believe.
5:02That was the pick that the Steelers got from the Bears from Chase Claypool, right?
5:07That was that pick? Oh, wow. I think it was.
5:10Dude. Like, I don't know where the connection is to it.
5:13But I just think about, like, Steelers fans and they're inundated with – all the Steelers fans right now are just inundated
5:19not with just trades but just Minecraft worlds and, like, what their team could have been.
5:24And then, like, they're all just sitting there and they're just thinking, like, you know, how can our team be better?
5:30And then the organization is, you know, going through new coaching.
5:34It's how can we be better? And it's like the Tim – I don't know if you guys don't watch – I think you should leave or whatever.
5:42But Tim Robinson wears in the banana suit and he's just like, we got to find who did this.
5:48And it's a banana – or the hot dog car.
5:51It's a hot dog, not the banana that breaks through the building.
5:54We got to find who did this. And it's like the Steelers.
5:58They continuously trade off all the players and it's like, why are we just mediocre?
6:02And it's like, because you do not make an investment into your players.
6:06And Ari Marove, My Sports Update, put this tweet out.
6:09This is – just the Steelers and the Cowboys alone have traded.
6:13The Cowboys have received George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr., Broderick Jones, and a 2027 fourth round pick from the Steelers.
6:19Here's what the Steelers have received from the Cowboys for all those players.
6:23A third, which was Drew Aller this year. A third next year, a five, and a six, all in 2027.
6:28That's bad trading. Like, Madden's not going to accept those trades.
6:32Those are bad trades overall. All it is is at the cost of saving a few bucks.
6:37But you're going to make a few more of those bucks if you're a highly competitive team.
6:42So I guess I just – I can't understand a team that – it's not even like a tiny bit.
6:48It's a full refusal to pay any stars whatsoever.
6:51And you're going to have to probably change that up a little bit.
6:54You know? So it's a crazy week for this.
6:57It's a bad week for Steelers fans. Lev Bell is out there being like, we're trying to win a Super Bowl, and Mike Tomlin's building the Minecraft world.
7:05They're trading off another player for absolutely nothing. It's a bad week for the Steelers.
7:10And it's going to be bad for that defense moving forward.
7:13It's going to be bad after they lose on Thursday night to the Cleveland Browns.
7:18That's happening. I know – I don't know when this is being released, but Browns money line.
7:23Lock. Denzel Boston. Lock. Denzel Boston over receiving yards.
7:25Lock of all locks. DK Metcalf under all receiving props.
7:28Lock, lock, lock. Lock. Denzel Boston was like 37.5.
7:31Dude, that was ludicrous. Ludicrous line. What are we talking about?
7:34I know. Absolutely ridiculous. Ridiculous. All right. A couple other news and notes, and then we're going to be breaking down some
7:41of the big games that are going to matter for this week.
7:44I thought this was interesting. I have a couple questions to get to you guys.
7:49But quarterback Drake May said on Wednesday that the physical condition of his right shoulder hasn't affected his throwing ability.
7:55Instead, this is like a direct quote from the article.
7:58I believe this is on ESPN. That he had highlighted he needs to make better decisions to reverse his early season struggles
8:04with the Patriots and their one and two starts.
8:07So my question is, Fitzy, is May's shoulder to blame for these struggles or is and did we overhype him?
8:13You were the biggest Drake May fan. You were celebrating in the streets last year because you were the most right.
8:19But he looks so lost. So is he lost or is it the shoulder?
8:23I would have to. Erickson has probably watched Patriots games with a more keen eye than I have this season.
8:29But if there has been like a noticeable dip in velocity with Drake May throwing the ball, I haven't really seen it.
8:36So I tend to, when a young quarterback struggles like this, I always tend to look at the ecosystem.
8:42And it seems like Patriots haven't really significantly improved along the offensive line, which was a huge problem for them last year in the playoffs.
8:49When Drake May also kind of struggled, they were winning games largely thanks to the offensive failings of their opponents in the AFC side of the bracket.
8:57Obviously, with no A.J. Brown, the guy they brought in to be the big play guy for Drake May, not having him around has hurt.
9:04And you also don't have Kayshaun Booty, who is making big plays for the Patriots.
9:09So I feel like it's more about the supporting cast.
9:12And obviously, Drake May just hasn't played good football so far.
9:15But if there is a shoulder issue, I haven't been able to detect it with the way he's playing.
9:21This is the villain arc. I've been staring at Erickson on here and you were so locked into this.
9:27And I can just tell this is where you're going to turn from the good guy in the meeting to the bad guy.
9:33The fingers are going to come out and this is going to be a problem.
9:38Is Drake May not good or is his shoulder not good, Erickson?
9:41I wish his shoulder was not good. And that could be the excuse that we could use for him not being good.
9:48But I agree with Fitz, where I think it's just he's just not playing good football.
9:53And this shoulder thing is, I think, a way that we're trying to make excuses for Drake May and trying to, well, he was so good last year.
10:01Like, why is he being so bad? And it goes back to all the things that we talked about in terms of the schedule.
10:08Playing much tougher defenses is going to make it a lot harder to play the quarterback position at a high level.
10:14Like, they haven't had any cupcake matchups to start the year against pretty solid defenses across the board between Seattle and Pittsburgh.
10:21And the Jacksonville Jaguars, like, watch him play Miami, okay?
10:24And then his shoulder is going to look absolutely fantastic because he's facing the Miami Dolphins.
10:29And when he faces the New York Jets. So he's going to look like the Drake May from 2025 in those particular games.
10:36So the supporting cast, they tried to upgrade. But AJ Brown got hurt.
10:39Michael Wenu got hurt. One of their offensive guards.
10:42He was one of their best guys in the interior.
10:45So, yeah. When you have guys that you expected to step up, Romeo Dobbs has been downgrade so far between players like Akeishon Booty and Stephon Diggs.
10:53So can that change? I think so. But I don't really know what the point of putting him on the injury report
11:00when he practiced in full for this shoulder injury.
11:02When the entire offseason, I did not hear a single peep or word about anything about his shoulder.
11:08And that he looks great in practice. It's just a matter of translating those things to the field with his new teammates,
11:14his new receivers that he's not necessarily so comfortable throwing to.
11:18Like a Romeo Dobbs, which is apparent, right? The connection's not there.
11:21His best connection's with Matt Collins. And, unfortunately, Matt Collins is a journeyman special teamer whose upside is capped because he's not
11:28this overly talented player, but he has the trust of his quarterback.
11:31So that's why we've seen a lot of the issues.
11:34And he's been making poor decisions. Like when you're turning the ball over in the red zone.
11:39Again, we can talk about this in the Patriots Bills preview, but they had seven possessions in Jaguars territory last week.
11:46They scored zero touchdowns on those seven possessions because of turnovers, because of drops, because of penalties.
11:51Everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Patriots last week.
11:54And that includes Drake May just playing bad. So I don't think that the shoulder thing is an issue.
12:00I wish it was. And if he gets surgery at some point, then OK, then this obviously is not going to be a take that ages well.
12:08But I can at least rest easier and be like, OK, well, his shoulder was just messed up all year.
12:14And that's why he was so bad. Like, OK, a healthy shoulder means a good Drake May.
12:19So I wish it was true, but I'm smelling some BS here, guys.
12:23All right. A couple other things we'll jump into.
12:25Another quarterback talk, at least. Ben Johnson has said that they know the direction that they want to go in week four
12:32on the quarterback call, but they didn't want to announce it.
12:35Do you think it matters? And who are you going with and who should be the Bears quarterback?
12:41Erickson Keenum or Bajant for week four? Keenum was solid.
12:44Bajant has been the backup. Where do you think they go?
12:47And do you think it's going to be a big, important piece to the offensive weapons around as Loveland started to, like, you know, get back involved?
12:55Luther Burden was back. I think it's going to be Bajant.
12:58And I don't know if that's the consensus take, just considering how good Case Keenum looked.
13:03But Ben Johnson, man, this guy loves him some him, right?
13:06He's like, I did it with Keenum. Now watch me do it with Bajant.
13:10Like, come on, baby, let's go. And I think that he's playing coy because why should he give any advantage or intel
13:17to Aaron Glenn, the head coach of the New York Jets, who is also very familiar with Ben Johnson and his offense
13:23from the time that they overlapped in Detroit? So I think there's some gamesmanship going here with Ben Johnson where he's like,
13:30yeah, we know he's going to be a quarterback, but the Jets don't know.
13:34And that's why I'm going to keep it under wraps.
13:37So I think Case Keenum ran so pure against Philadelphia Eagles.
13:40And I think that betting on him to do that two weeks in a row, I think it's kind of betting on
13:47like lightning to strike in the same place twice.
13:50I wouldn't do that. I think they know that Bajant's the better quarterback.
13:54And with a full week of preparation, I think that he gives them the best chance to win.
13:59Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe they want to ride the coattails of a Case Keenum game.
14:03But I feel like you should just kind of cash out with Case Keenum and be like, it was sick.
14:09We got the W. He was excellent. This is probably not repeatable in any way, shape or form.
14:15Let's go with Bajant, who we viewed as the best quarterback option.
14:18Some of the Ben Johnson was talking up all offsees as, oh, yeah, he should be a starter in the NFL.
14:25He was not saying that about Case Keenum. So that's at least what I think.
14:29But I'm interested to see what Fitz thinks and what actually happens.
14:33Well, a couple side notes before I jump into Fitz.
14:36A, I tried to search this and I couldn't find it.
14:39I wanted to see how many or what was the most amount of quarterbacks that got a win in a season with a team?
14:46Does that make sense what I'm saying? Like what team has had the most wins with different quarterbacks in a single season?
14:52Because then if they can get Bajant and they have, but they need to pick someone else off the street to do that.
14:59If it's like four. The other thing I've been thinking about, and Fitz, I'd be curious about this with you.
15:05Because obviously the question is going to be, who do you think it should be, Bajant or Keenum?
15:11But I'd been thinking about this with the quarterback market kind of opened up.
15:15And you've seen teams talking about trying, obviously McCarthy was traded, trying to trade for like a Mac Jones and whatever.
15:21I wonder if the Bears, it would behoove them to put Bajant out on the market because they've got a third quarterback
15:28that can get them wins if something happens with Caleb.
15:31Because Case Keenum doesn't have any like inherent trade value.
15:34But Bajant would if a team thought they could bring him in and they could get some really good equity.
15:40Because at the end of the day, he doesn't have a future with the team unless he's a backup.
15:45And if you've got a guy like that, they could probably bring a big haul.
15:50So I don't think they'll do it. But when you got three quarterbacks, I feel like you should go and trade from strength.
15:56And maybe if there are teams looking, you could move Bajant.
16:00What are your thoughts on that? And then who do you think is going to be our week four quarterback, Keenum or Bajant?
16:07I have wondered what the market might be for Bajant.
16:10And I don't have a very good handle on what his perception is around the league.
16:14I know he's well regarded by the Bears organization.
16:17I just don't know if there's that same enthusiasm for him as a possible solution to some other teams starting quarterback woes.
16:24So I kind of feel like it would probably be a day three pick if you're trading for Tyson Bajant.
16:30And I don't know if the Bears would be willing to do that.
16:33But as for who's going to start, I think with any other team, it would be 95% Case Keenum.
16:39And they just roll with the guy who played, for the most part, mistake-free football.
16:44I can remember maybe like one turnover-worthy throw that Keenum made.
16:47But for the most part, he played well. The Bears offense looked completely buttoned up in a game where they just, you
16:53know, the Eagles were so inept on offense that all you had to do was turn in a credible game.
16:59And Case Keenum did that more. But Erickson is right.
17:02I could totally see Ben Johnson turning to Tyson Bajant for this one.
17:06So right now, my guess, if I had to bet, you know, $20 on it, I'm going with Case Keenum.
17:12Wouldn't feel confident in that bet at all. Okay.
17:15I would say with Bajant, by the way, he's still got another year on a deal.
17:20So if a team did trade for him, he signed through the 2027 season.
17:24So even more, I think he's a bit attractive.
17:26I think the problem with trading, it might be as I don't think it takes a day three pick.
17:32I think it's a little bit more as someone you could implant as a starter.
17:37But, you know, maybe I'm wrong. Last little note.
17:39We got the because I know everybody's been, you know, patiently waiting for this.
17:43We got the AFC and NFC Players of the Month.
17:46Ken Walker named AFC Player of the Month and Brock Purdy named NFC Player of the Month.
17:51Ken Walker absolutely deserved it, has been a beast.
17:54And Brock Purdy really been the conversation piece for a lot of people when you see any of these quarterbacks struggle going
18:01like, we don't appreciate Brock Purdy enough. Erickson, I would just like one quick sentence or two on why we don't appreciate Brock Purdy enough.
18:08And should we? We should appreciate him more. We should.
18:11We talked about on the first tailgate show this week about how he's second in the MVP odds behind only Josh Allen
18:18because he's playing at an MVP level. Dating back to week 15 of last year, nobody has more fantasy points at quarterback than Brock Purdy does.
18:25So the dude has been absolutely balling. Now, the matchups have been good for him.
18:30Hungover Rams, Cardinals, Dolphins. That does help boost your numbers.
18:33So a little bit taller task this week against the Denver Broncos, but still like we talked about on the rank show, which was great.
18:40Fitz, Tara filled in admirably for you Welsh. Brock Purdy is still going to be like a top 10 fantasy quarterback this
18:47week, even in a tougher matchup against the Denver Broncos, just because he's doing it and he's doing it as the pieces fall around him.
18:54I think that's the biggest thing to take away with Purdy is the support system, the receivers.
18:59It's a different guy every week, right? One week it's what's his name?
19:03Jordan Watkins is now stepping up because he's got to do it.
19:07And it's like, it's just everybody except Brandon Ayuk.
19:09And I just, I just think it's so funny every time the reporters ask Kyle Shannon, like, Hey, so like, Ayuk.
19:16And he's like, draw seven. Right. It's like that meme where it's like, bring Brandon Ayuk back to the team or draw 15 cards.
19:23And Kyle Shannon just doesn't, he has every card in his hand.
19:26Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, I wonder what he's doing right now.
19:30I would actually like, if they're, if that guy needed to make money, like reality show, like YouTube reality show or something,
19:37just like, what are you doing right now? Watching all these wide receivers go down.
19:41Cause also doesn't it feel like with how he acted in the off season, this should be the stuff he should be live reacting to at every moment.
19:50It should be like, he hasn't reacted to his boy.
19:53Daniel's dislocating his elbow. But they had the, they're on the outs that he hasn't reacted to every wide receiver going down.
19:59Like, is he okay? Wellness check. I have no idea what's going on with him, but Brock Purdy is my boy.
20:05Do you think about Ayuk? Just like, do you think he could like apologize?
20:10And he'd be like, look, I was way out of line.
20:13I mean, like if it was like from a mental ward, you know what I'm saying?
20:18Like, like if he had, if he was like with a psychiatrist or something, because it would feel, and I'm not trying to be like awful about it.
20:26It would feel disingenuous. Like he's been crazy. It's not just little stuff.
20:30Guys driving like a hundred miles per hour everywhere.
20:32He's like throwing money. He's just, he's going on nonsensical Instagram stories.
20:36So one thing would feel disingenuous, but also, and sorry, do you Fitzy, if you have any comment on that, like how
20:43we got here, it feels weird that we've heard nothing from him whatsoever.
20:46So I don't know what the deal with that is, but that definitely has to die.
20:51I understand why reporters are asking that because they're literally going to be, they might be starting Jacob Cowing and Jordan Watkins,
20:58but like, is he playing in the NFL actually on the roster?
21:01Yeah. He's just on the IR. He'll be back next week.
21:05Yeah. He'll be back next week. Fitzy, that was a lot of Brandon Iyuk and all that.
21:10Do you have any fun takes as we lament?
21:12Brandon Iyuk's agent might have him tied up and gagged somewhere.
21:16Yeah. Well, you want no fun fact? For all we know, Willie Bergson.
21:19No agent because they dropped him. Oh, that's right.
21:22I forgot about that. Oh my goodness. Yeah. The story continues on, you know, it's crazy.
21:27The only person that can make AB not look as crazy as he is.
21:31Yeah. I just wanted to muse on Brock Purdy and what a remarkable success story that is from Mr.
21:37Irrelevant to this. Like now one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
21:41Just a great to have Kyle Shanahan as his muse and just be Shanahan's point guard.
21:45And he does so well at that job. And even though we've got this curse hanging over the 49ers with the wide
21:52receivers at this point, I mean, we're in October now.
21:55I'm thinking of horror movies. It's like the Final Destination series with the substation claiming stalking 49ers wide receivers.
22:01I mean, Kaderil Hodge is hurt now. If Evans can't play, and I think there's a chance he will.
22:06I thought I heard that he's not on the injury report but didn't practice Wednesday.
22:11So that's kind of strange. 46% on the, are they playing tool on fantasy pros?
22:15A nice little plug for that. If you guys go check it out under 50% right now, but that, you know, there's
22:22still a line that he could go. Are they?
22:24Again? Yeah. Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowling. We are down to the bottom of the depth chart for the 49ers.
22:30I don't know what else they have on the practice squad.
22:33And yet Purdy is somehow going to make it work because he always does.
22:37Dante Pettis and Brandon Cooks, by the way. Yeah, they signed Pettis.
22:41That's right. But like Purdy is the most resourceful quarterback in the league.
22:45They got to trade for Brian Thomas Jr. They got to reunite him with Matt Jones.
22:50I completely agree with that. It makes too much sense.
22:53Day three pick. Get a day three pick or something like that.
22:56Go trade for him. But I will say this is the last thing.
23:00As a 49er fan, I had thought for years it was so weird when this team was sitting on George Kittle, Debo
23:07and Brandon Ayuk, and then they just kept acquiring wide receivers in the draft.
23:11And I think everyone was like, what is Shanahan doing?
23:14Like, okay, Ricky Pearsall. And then last year they're getting Dejan Stribbling.
23:17What is it that they knew? Is it truly, all jokes aside, the station?
23:22They have just kept acquiring and acquiring wide receivers and they just keep all getting hurt.
23:26So they're just either really bad at picking them or, you know, there is something in that water or in the air because they just, they draft them.
23:35They get hurt. They can never have enough of them.
23:38But yeah, go trade for Brian Thomas, please. All right.
23:41Enough 49er talk. That's the news. We got to talk about the big games that are going to matter.
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24:20That's FPPOD to get $25 free after you deposit just 10 bucks.
24:23I'm Britt Coleman. And I'm Trevor Sykema. Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score?
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25:29The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.
25:36Last year, we had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold on the field after the game, but that was last year.
25:41If you're a football sicko like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show.
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25:55Big time trades that shake up the NFL. A.J.
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26:15The World Cup is over, but if you caught the soccer bug and aren't sure what to do now, check out our podcast, Big Kick Energy.
26:23I'm Cameron Dicker, the kicker from the Los Angeles Chargers, most accurate kicker in NFL history, but I was raised on the soccer pitches of Shanghai.
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26:46Each week, we'll tackle things like, who's winning the Premier League this year?
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27:22Gentlemen, let's look at some of the games that matter.
27:25We actually got four games that we're going to lock into this week.
27:29And you guys teased it earlier. New England at Buffalo.
27:32I'm going to hold some thoughts back on this because I'm going to talk about it a little bit later.
27:38New England has got to get right. That's the number one takeaway out of this.
27:42Drake May has got to get right. Erickson. Can New England get right against Buffalo?
27:47Buffalo's offense is obviously a powerhouse, but are they going to be able to make some strides and make this one of those big offensive output games?
27:55Or is this going to be another like 0 for 9 in scoring opportunities or whatever you said?
28:000 for 12 it was. What do you think is the breakdown for this game?
28:05New England at Buffalo? Well, this is a place in Buffalo where the Patriots have had success and they have well exceeded expectations.
28:11You look at the last two times that Drake May and the Patriots have gone to Buffalo last year.
28:17They were nine point underdogs, one outright upset the Buffalo Bills two years ago.
28:21There were 14 point underdogs in the Gerard Mayo led Patriots, which was an even worse disaster than what we're seeing the last couple of weeks.
28:29And they almost won that game outright too. So the Patriots are 2-0 against the spread when they've gone to Buffalo.
28:35They've actually covered against the Bills in five of the last six matchups.
28:39So this is the first division game for both of these teams so far this season.
28:44We know that divisional games are a different animal.
28:47It's a different type of beast. And Mike Vrabel has that kind of Mike Tomlin voodoo magic to him where it's like
28:53the guy wins games when he's counted out the most.
28:56And his team shows up and bounces back after terrible losses.
28:59Last week's loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars falls into that category.
29:03Just getting your, the doors blown off entirely. I mean, they got totally destroyed.
29:07Your what? Doors blown off. Say it again. Your what?
29:10The doors blown off? What did I say? Gotcha.
29:13The roof blown off? No, no, no. You look like you wanted to go.
29:17So Fitz knows what I'm talking about. You definitely wanted to say something else here, but hey, it's family friendly show.
29:23You keep going. It's Patriots. Doors blown off. Gotta respect the kids.
29:27You're doing a great job. Kids that listen. You're doing so.
29:30I do think that this is like kids love Patriots.
29:33It boils breakdown. I think that this is an interesting bounce back spot for the Patriots because the negativity around the team, the Drake may shoulder injury.
29:41Now Gonzalez is on the injury report. It's all gloom and doom for this team.
29:45And it feels similar to how we were talking about the Steelers.
29:49And then what do they do the next week?
29:52They have a good matchup in a divisional game against Cincinnati Bengals.
29:55And they put up a 30 burger on that defense.
29:58So given that the Patriots were able to at least move the ball against Jacksonville, if they just find a easier way
30:05to take care of the football a little bit better than they did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, then I do think they can keep this much closer.
30:13And I think I actually like them to cover the touchdown spread, to be totally honest, because that's just what's happened when
30:19these teams have faced off against each other. So it's going to require them to use their best players like Travion Henderson.
30:26Remember that they have him on the roster. He blew up the last time they played the Buffalo Bills at Gillette.
30:32And I think if they're going to have a chance of winning this game and keeping it close, they need to feature
30:39their best players like Henderson and trying to get some of these wide receivers more involved.
30:43So just less mistakes. And look, last week, Buffalo, they turned the ball over five times and still were able to cover, which is just crazy.
30:51And it's just, I think more about just the LA Chargers just not being able to get out of the wrong way and take advantage.
30:59I don't think the bills will be that lucky two weeks in a row if they also turn the ball over like the Patriots did in week three.
31:07Yeah, Fitzy, this is a really big divisional matchup here that we kind of got to lock into.
31:12And I think it's a critical, critical game for the Patriots in Drake May.
31:16So what are your thoughts on this breakdown here?
31:19It is. And I've heard people wonder how the Patriots can be favored or how the bills could be favored by only a touchdown.
31:26Like it should be more. That's not giving a lot of credit to the reigning AFC champions.
31:31And I feel like this could be, as Erickson is kind of alluding to, a circle the wagons game for the Patriots.
31:38They need it. And Drake May, one of these weeks, we're going to be reminded of how good a quarterback Drake May is.
31:45And, you know, I know fantasy managers who have Drake May on their teams are probably sick of hearing that, but it's going to happen.
31:52And I'd feel better about the Patriots spot if they had a healthy Christian Gonzalez, because that's going to be a problem.
31:59And I think Christian Barmore is banged up too.
32:01I don't know if he's going to play. So just two key defensive pieces missing.
32:06Not the easiest thing to have going when you're trying to stop Josh Allen.
32:10But I think we probably will get a better effort from the Patriots this week than we've seen over the first three weeks.
32:17More on Drake May later. Second game, I mean, on paper, looks bigger.
32:21Eagles have been odd. But you've got the Rams that are going to be traveling to Philly.
32:26Fitzy, why don't you break this one down for us?
32:29Obviously, I don't know. Defensively, I think we've had higher expectations of the Rams.
32:33Pukunakua does look like, I guess that's part of the update range.
32:36We could have talked about it from earlier this week, though.
32:40But Pukunakua looks like he's lining up that he might be able to play in this one, I think, which is good for the Rams.
32:47On the Eagles side, we want to see that offense kind of just get rolling again.
32:52Obviously, Devonta Smith, what's your breakdown? How do you think this is going to play out with Rams and Eagles?
32:58Yeah, has there been a more disappointing team than the Eagles so far?
33:02I mean, we talk about the Patriots being disappointing.
33:04But the Eagles, I mean, with their personnel to just barely scrape by and wins over the Commanders and Titans and then
33:11go into Chicago and get your doors blown off by a team that's being quarterbacked by a third stringer that is thought to have a bottom five defense.
33:19And you score seven points on that bottom five defense.
33:22It's the same stuff that we've had the last couple of years.
33:26That was what the bill of goods we were sold coming into this year, by the way, is like that offense is not innovative.
33:33It's stinky. It's boring. And they play it safe and they don't have any innovation whatsoever.
33:38And then they're just like, well, guess what? We'll get rid of A.J.
33:42Brown and we're going to fix it. No, they're back to the same boring, dumb stuff where it's do they not trust Jalen Hurts?
33:49I didn't mean to like go into that, but it's like I can't.
33:53I don't know what to do with that because this is the same thing that we bitch about with the Eagles all the time.
34:00It's their offense is it's stale and it's continuously stale.
34:03And it seems like this is the time it can't be stale, which we thought was going to be better this year
34:09after Eagles fans went with their torches and pitchforks to Kevin Petillo's house.
34:13And now it's Sean Mannion and the offense looks no better.
34:16And I know I think a big part of it is this Eagles offensive line is just not what it used to
34:23be back in the Jason Kelsey days and when some of these guys were younger and it just they don't have the
34:30sort of bully ball offensive line they used to have.
34:33And that seems like it's a major problem. And the defense isn't really playing up to expectations either.
34:38Erickson, I got a little naughty there for the children.
34:41What say you about this one? I complain we complain about this team in that the thing they continuously tell us they
34:47need to be better at they're not. And it seems like they've got the personnel where you could be.
34:53Taequann Barkley is pretty good. Jalen Hurts in theory should be pretty good.
34:57Devontae Smith pretty good. Why are they as stale as any offense in the NFL continuously?
35:02I think having a new offensive coordinator these things always take time to gel into place.
35:06I think we've seen that in a lot of different offenses.
35:10The Chargers are also one that comes to mind.
35:12A new offensive coordinator that you're looking for optimism from.
35:15And it's just been bleh to start the season.
35:18And you're hoping that, OK, with more reps, with more time, with more games, that you can finally start to hit the ground running.
35:25The Eagles, obviously, after two weeks where they let the commanders hang around, they do they win the game.
35:31They let the Titans hang around. They end up winning the game.
35:34This is such a telltale sign when teams win but don't cover that, OK, like they are approaching danger territory and they
35:41got curb stomped against a third string quarterback and against a bad Bears defense.
35:45So I like to think that that's what just would continue here and they would just continue to get curb stomped, especially
35:52when you look at a team like the Rams coming off a pretty sour loss to the Denver Broncos where they're blowing
35:58out the Broncos in the first half and then Denver gets back into it and they end up losing that game.
36:05I mean, through the last two weeks or just the entire season, you kind of throw out that Rams first game where
36:11they just took totally out of sorts. I mean, the Rams have looked so much better than the Philadelphia Eagles, even in
36:18a loss last week against the Denver Broncos. They still put way more out there that you're excited about this Rams team.
36:24So they are short favorites here on the road.
36:27They're playing at the link. I mean, how many three and outs is going to take for the link to just completely
36:33turn on the Eagles and be rooting for the Rams to win this game?
36:38So, I mean, I like the Rams here. I think the Rams are going to win bounce back after a big loss
36:44to the Denver Broncos in prime time. And I don't know why the Eagles would change.
36:49The only way I can see it is Saquon save us, right?
36:52Because he was the only guy that looked like he had any type of juice.
36:57It was in the first half, mostly against the Chicago Bears.
37:00Like he can still rip off big plays, but the supporting cast talking about this on the rank show, the supporting cast,
37:07the offensive line is not creating as many holes as it's done in the past years because it's just not as good.
37:13Guys are getting older, guys are getting banged up, and that's having a trickle down effect on the entire offense.
37:19There's only one thing that or at least one team is guaranteed to go into week five undefeated, and that is going
37:26to come out of the Chiefs and Raiders game.
37:28One of those teams will be, which is insane to say, by the way, think about my grandfather.
37:34My grandfather, rest in peace, many years ago was the biggest Raiders fan on the planet.
37:39And he passed away in a long, long time ago, like in the Jamarcus Russell, you know, year.
37:44So it's like that was the Raiders he had.
37:47And now you look at this Raiders team and you're like, wow, they're three and oh, they could potentially go in four
37:53and oh, but that is the only guarantee one of these teams or at least be one undefeated team, the Chiefs and the Raiders into next week.
38:01And that has made this a locked in game for us, Erickson.
38:05We've got to pay attention to it. Ken Walker, player of the month.
38:09They found a rhythm, even though the passing game still seems a little bit odd.
38:13And, you know, Rasheed Rice hasn't got going and the Raiders are just inevitable.
38:17Doug Cousins, he just makes it happen right now.
38:20We aren't we aren't on the precipice of seeing Mendoza.
38:23So what do you think? Do the Raiders stand a chance to be able to walk into week five as an undefeated team?
38:30I'd like to say no, especially as a Kirk Cousins fader.
38:33And he's making me eat it every single week as he throws another three touchdowns because that's what he's on pace for.
38:4051 passing touchdowns for Kirk Cousins through three weeks.
38:42That's his pace over a 17 game season. So definitely taking the L on Kirk Cousins being washed.
38:48Now, I'd like to think that the Chiefs can just take care of business before.
38:52No, I get another team. I was wrong about being on the Chargers and the AFC West was not a good take.
38:59For me in the offseason. And I can already see the headlines, though, where you like that Raiders 4-0 on the newspaper.
39:05In the Las Vegas Inquirer. What is it? Do they have news?
39:09Are they trying to be like the New York Post or whatever the one is?
39:13Las Vegas Review. Las Vegas Review. Yeah. How do you know the main paper in Vegas?
39:18I think it's Las Vegas Review. I'm an old school newspaper guy.
39:22Yeah, you are. But I can already see the headlines.
39:25Monday morning. It's you like that. And it's Kirk Cousins 4-0.
39:28Review Journal. Sorry. Hey, no one's perfect. Get it right.
39:31No one's perfect. Get it right. Get off the screen.
39:34What are you doing? Come on. You don't know the Las Vegas Journal?
39:38Everybody. Review Journal? Everybody knows that. All right, go ahead.
39:41These divisional games, it's never as easy as it is on paper.
39:44When you look at the Chiefs. Hey, yeah, they're the better team.
39:48They should win. But I mean, Raiders offense has been humming.
39:51They got Brock Bowers back last week. He is such a tough cover.
39:55Maybe if the Chiefs can find a way to take him away, make it a scenario where Ashton Gentry and these other
40:01pieces of the Raiders offense have to beat their defense.
40:04But those guys have stepped up and eventually Gentry's going to pop one of these big ones.
40:10I don't think that he's going to average under three yards per carry every single week.
40:14Like it's been a struggle over the last two games.
40:17So the system, Clint Kubiak, the guys are buying into it.
40:21And Kubiak is showing how effective and how much of an impact he makes as an offensive play caller and so far as a head coach.
40:28So the team is buying in. So it's not just as easy as, well, the Raiders, we thought were going to be bad.
40:35Chiefs, we thought maybe would be slaughtered at the gates.
40:38Both of those end up not being correct. These are divisional games and the Raiders don't look at the Chiefs as, oh, we're massive underdog.
40:46I mean, obviously they're embracing like the underdog mentality because got mad Max Crosby did like that guy is absolutely balling out.
40:52And the Raiders must be like thanking their lucky stars.
40:55They're like, thank God the Ravens didn't check this guy.
40:58Like we are reaping the benefits of them not wanting to sign him and be worried about his knee in the long
41:05term, which is still a possibility about what he looks like in 2027, 2028.
41:09But right now he just looks like one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.
41:14You know, I think about the Raiders in the trade market.
41:17I don't know if they, I mean, everybody has a dream of being, you know, three and O going into week four and stuff.
41:24I don't know if they really have that expectation or an expectation that they would be this high of contenders.
41:30And you look at the trade market and all I consider is think about is the low hanging fruit.
41:36They've done this obviously with Bowers even missing time and a subpar wide receiver core of guys like Naylor and Tucker that
41:42they could do the low hanging fruit of trying to go and acquire a Brian Thomas, who we've talked about that could
41:49help that wide receiver core Marvin Harrison. Or, I mean, I'll just throw this out here.
41:53I don't know how substantiated any of it is, but there are those rumors that were floating around Fitzy that Justin Jefferson is quietly asking to be traded.
42:02That feels like a Tom Brady Raiders type of move to splash and go and trade your first round pick after you
42:08got your franchise quarterback to go and get a big receiver.
42:12I don't think that happens or anything like that, but obviously I want you to break down this game, but just wanted
42:18to throw out that it's like this three and O team that could go into four and O you'd love to see
42:25them go all in, just go all in with this team and this core and maybe make some big moves.
42:31Cause it seems like the trade market in the NFL is a little bit more vibrant than it's been in some years.
42:37So I threw a lot at you. Obviously you've got your breakdown and any thoughts you want to throw on the, maybe
42:44making a move for some more pieces. Boy, that would be fun for them to get Justin Jefferson and give their eventual
42:50franchise quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, a weapon because he doesn't really have one.
42:54A wide receiver, at least Brock Bowers, obviously an incredible pass catching weapon and quickly the Raiders are playing themselves out of
43:00position to be able to think about drafting Jeremiah Smith next year.
43:04So it's just, it's fun that the Raiders are three and O like the NFL is more interesting when the Raiders are credible.
43:11And I know Raiders fans, uh, you know, like your, your grandpa, like they take pride in being menacing and fearsome and
43:17having the Raiders mean something and kind of stinks when they're a doormat.
43:21And this year, could they make the playoffs? Could they sneak in as a wild card?
43:26Could they even make a run at the AFC West?
43:29Like probably not. I mean, this year, I think for the Raiders has always been more about making the transition to Fernando
43:36Mendoza starting that era, which will eventually happen. And I, I love that Erickson is trying to like, uh, outflank me as the primary Kirk Cousins fader.
43:44Cause I don't know how many times I have talked about, uh, Kirk Cousins and his penchant for throwing short of the
43:50chains on third and long on fantasy pros and betting pro shows.
43:54Eventually it's going to be Fernando Mendoza. And this season is about Mendoza and about just a cultural reset for the Raiders
44:00after the debacle of the Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly year.
44:03And so far, so good on that front, man.
44:06Like they look like a real football team here.
44:09And how nice would it be for Raiders fans if they punched the chiefs in the mouth this week?
44:14I was about to say, it sounds a little though, like you're kind of like, this is very cute what they're doing,
44:21but you know, let, you know, let dad step in.
44:24Like, it seems like, are you prepared that the chiefs are going to put a smack down on the radar?
44:30Cause it seems a little bit like what I think it would be fun, but you don't, I don't know if you
44:36believe that the Raiders are going to be competitive in this one.
44:40I think I know Matt Peralt, our prime betting pros host thinks the chiefs are going to drill the Raiders.
44:46I wouldn't put a penny on this game. Okay.
44:48Ooh. Okay. I like that. Final one here, the Denver Broncos and my San Francisco 49ers.
44:53Big matchup. 49ers have a chance to walk into week five undefeated.
44:57They have no wide receivers whatsoever. They'd love to probably take one of those Denver Broncos on.
45:02The Broncos haven't quite found their footing, especially in the wide receiver core.
45:06Jalen Waddle was a little bit banged up this week.
45:09And this is like Erickson, you had alluded to.
45:11This is like the test. This is like a real big test here for the 49ers in this season.
45:17I mean, we shouldn't discount the Rams being a big test in Australia, but to your point, the last two weeks after
45:24have been, uh, you know, a little bit more cakewalk fitzy.
45:27Are the 49ers going to be able to bounce off of all of these injuries and be able to get McCaffrey has
45:33been kind of weird to this season. Kalon Black disappeared last week.
45:37Like how does the 40, how do the 49ers offense continue to be efficient?
45:41Because I think they're a little bit still overrated defensively, but how do they match up against the Denver Broncos?
45:47And how do you see this one playing out?
45:50Match up pretty well, because I think they win the quarterback battle by a wide margin.
45:55Like Brock Purdy has been fantastic and Bo Nix has not been fantastic.
45:58And I think the Broncos, I want to say they're 29th in yardage right now.
46:03And they are averaging fewer yards per play than the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets.
46:07Like those three AFC teams, which, you know, Jets offense hasn't been, maybe that wouldn't shock people, but I think it would
46:14shock people to realize the Dolphins have averaged more yards per play than the Denver Broncos.
46:18That is sure. This offense that we were supposed to be getting excited about once they signed Jalen Waddell, like, oh, this is going to be great.
46:26And Sean Payton's offenses do sometimes take time to find their footing, get it together in October.
46:31Man, they have not gotten it together yet. And in fairness, they have not faced a bad defense yet.
46:37And the 49ers are not a bad defense. They do have their problems up front.
46:42It'll be interesting to see if the Broncos running game, which has been pretty comatose so far, can get it going against the 49ers.
46:49But I don't know. I mean, this could be, this feels like a game that could be a 17-13 rock fight.
46:55I don't know how you guys feel about that.
46:58Yeah. Erickson, what do you think about this? I mean, the 49ers don't really have a pass rush.
47:03You can run on them. But at the same time, if Denver Broncos defense doesn't get stable, the problem with the 49ers,
47:10regardless of not having maybe the big core of wide receivers, is Kittle is a matchup discrepancy.
47:15Christian McCaffrey is a problem. Kalon Black is a problem.
47:18And Brock Purdy just makes stuff happen. They've got these guys.
47:21So to me, this is really solely about the 49ers offense against the Denver Broncos defense.
47:26And if the Denver Broncos bend a little bit, the 49ers are going to break them.
47:30Yeah, I think that the game script for this game kind of plays favorably to the Denver Broncos, where Denver is at
47:37its best when they're down in the second half, right?
47:40Because they cut things loose and Bo Nix plays significantly better when he's trailing in games.
47:45Like you look at his passer rating when they're leading in the first half.
47:49It's terrible. Like he plays tight. He does not play well at all.
47:53But then the minute that they're like, all right, got to start making off script plays.
47:58Bo Nix starts like balling out a lot more.
48:00And when you look at how the 49ers operate, they are a front runner.
48:04They are a team that operates. We want the lead.
48:07That's how we operate. We don't want to be playing with a negative game script.
48:12We want to dictate the pace and flow of this game.
48:15So it kind of works favorably for Denver in that capacity.
48:18They do have, I think, the best defense that the 49ers have faced thus far.
48:23So I think that does work into their favor.
48:25And Bo Nix is a lot different too when he's not under pressure.
48:29So if the 49ers really aren't putting a lot of heat on Bo Nix, he has shown that, okay, I can operate from a clean pocket.
48:37It's when he gets rattled when you get the bad version of Bo Nix.
48:41I mean, he's a roller coaster type of quarterback.
48:44Like it's really hard to like bank on, okay, like what kind of performance are you going to get from Bo Nix this week?
48:51And it changes in game where it looks like this guy's never played quarterback before in his life.
48:56And then the next half comes and, oh, he looks like, why is this guy not talking about an MVP type of player?
49:03So one thing that's always fun when it talks to Sean Payton and his career in week four specifically, this is one
49:10of the betting trends that like really fun. He is 13 and four against the spread in week four all time.
49:16Because to Fitz's point, it takes time for his teams to gel at the beginning of the season.
49:21Like in week two, he's like an auto fade.
49:24Week three, he gets a little bit better. Then week four, it's like Sean Payton's lights out.
49:29Because that's when the team finally starts to buy into the new offense or whatever is kind of Sean Payton's selling point for his team.
49:37So I think Denver's kind of sneaky here, especially with the 49ers tending to be a little bit overrated at home.
49:43And when they covered, they failed to cover the spread 18 in the last 25 home games.
49:48They didn't cover last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
49:51Cardinals kind of came back out the backdoor cover.
49:53So, but a game I'm definitely really interested to watch for sure.
49:57All right. Those are big four games that we're breaking down.
50:00You guys can drop in the comments below. What games are you locked into?
50:04If there isn't one, which one should we have?
50:07We got a couple more things here to jump into, but I told you guys about the giveaway.
50:12It is time that we crown a winner for the Todd Gurley autographed jersey.
50:17And then we tell you about the next thing.
50:19The winner of the Todd Gurley autographed jersey giveaway is Mr.
50:22Sean IO. Mr. Sean IO, please get in touch with our customer support agents at mailbagatfantasypros.com with your mailing address and a
50:29screenshot of your YouTube page, account page, while you're logged in.
50:32And then once we confirm, we're going to take care of you.
50:36You're going to be locked in. So again, congrats to Mr.
50:39Sean IO for winning that Todd Gurley autographed jersey.
50:42But we ain't done. Ladies and gentlemen, this is your chance because next up, we're going to be giving one of the
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51:23And you're entered in. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel.
51:27So turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim a prize or one of these great videos.
51:33All right, let's make a call here. Each one of us are going to make a call for this coming week.
51:39Fitzy, you get to jump in here. I don't think my call was very good last week.
51:44I think you might have been locked in here.
51:47But what is your big call for week four?
51:50I will say that on Sunday night, the Lions and Panthers combined for 60 or more points in a game that I
51:56think is going to be a thriller. And I'll say the Panthers win a close one.
52:01These two teams have been much better offensively than defensively early in the season.
52:05And I don't know why that would change. The Lions have given up almost a thousand passing yards through the first three weeks.
52:12They're really hurting without Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph.
52:15They're two starting safeties. I guess the only thing that would concern me, at least from the Panthers end of things, would
52:21be their offensive line did not look very good against the Browns in week three.
52:26And I do worry about Aiden Hutchinson being able to disrupt what Bryce Young wants to do, especially with the Panthers kind of banged up.
52:33Their rookie first round right tackle, Monroe Freeling, he's got a concussion.
52:37Don't know if he's going to play. Damian Lewis, one of their starting guards, I believe is out for this week.
52:43So that would be the only issue. But man, if that Lions pass rush can't get to Bryce Young, they have been just completely defenseless in the secondary.
52:51That would have been if this was like a year or so ago, we would have been like, oh, cool.
52:5760 points is the 50 of them coming from the Lions, but not with how the Panthers are player.
53:03The Lions defense is played. So it's totally in.
53:06So 60 plus points Sunday night. Love that. Erickson, big call for week four.
53:10I do want to add one thing to Fitz because I love Fitz's call here about this being a shootout.
53:16This is from NextGenStats. Five of the Panthers' seven most targeted players are 6'3 or taller.
53:21TMAC, 6'5". Jalen Coker, 6'3". Darren Waller, 6'6". The Lions do not have a single defensive back taller than six feet.
53:27Don't do it. Their top quarterback, DJ Reed, is 5'9".
53:30And I don't know how this is a stat that's even tracked.
53:33I don't know how this is a stat that's even tracked.
53:37So apparently the average height discrepancy between the Panthers receivers and tight ends, the Lions defensive backs, 5.2 inches.
53:42They somehow have this tracked third largest in a game in the last decade.
53:46Go figure. Wow. I don't know who's... That's incredible.
53:49Like, incredible. Panthers GM Dan Morgan loves these giant pass catchers.
53:52It is going to be like, what was it?
53:55Lord of the Ring with the ants? The big trees?
53:58Yeah. Yeah. Like, that's what it's going to be like, deploying the ants against the Lions.
54:03The Panthers are like modern dating. It's just like hinge.
54:06They're just like, 6'3". And then swipe anything under.
54:08And then you have the fact that Bryce Dung is like the smallest quarterback.
54:13And he's just thrown into these frigging trees on the outside.
54:16Love it. I love it. That's actually the best stat I've ever heard.
54:20All right. Mine... All right. Did you... No. I was just co-signing on Fitz's make the call.
54:25My make the call. We got distracted in the short kings and the big guys.
54:29Short kings, short king, October, et cetera. Mine is not as fun.
54:33Mine is about the Dolphins and Vikings. And the Dolphins are going to get shut out on the road this week in
54:39a Brian Flores revenge game against his old team that he used to coach for.
54:44I'm sure there's no bad blood between, you know, Brian Flores and the Miami Dolphins.
54:48So I'm sure he's not going to want to pummel them as humanly possible.
54:52I'm actually going to extend this prediction because the Dolphins aren't going to score any points.
54:57The Vikings defense is going to score more points than the Dolphins offense in week four.
55:02Okay. I like that. That's fun. It does feel like an Andrew Van Ginkle touchdown week.
55:07Hmm. Okay. I'm with that one. And maybe, by the way, this curbs some of this, like, whatever this nonsense is about
55:13Justin Jefferson quietly asking for trades and stuff like that.
55:16If Kyler Murray just is, like, throwing backwards to, you know, Jefferson and he's just two touchdown, two touchdown game for Jefferson.
55:23Or if it's nothing but Jordan Addison making big plays, then that fire is still even bigger.
55:28So I like that one. For mine, LOL just kidding about last week.
55:32Remember last week I said that was the Drake May get right situation?
55:36Just joshing you. Yeah. It's this week that it's the Drake May get right situation.
55:40Yeah. This'll be the game where it's 200 plus, two, three touchdowns.
55:44It's interesting. I was looking over at PFF. Match grading.
55:47This doesn't look good on paper, but that's built around Drake May also being bad.
55:51They rank, the Bills rank 25th out of 32 in wide receiver coverage grade and 27 out of 32 in running back coverage grade.
55:58So, and this is for running back receiving. Travion Henderson and Ramondre getting more involved.
56:03Romeo Dobbs being competent. And if anything, this is that spot where Drake May has, they've got to let it fly.
56:09They've got, and I think they're going to be playing from behind.
56:13They've got to be more efficient. And I think this is the spot where we get a more vintage Drake May.
56:19I mean, you were even playing in Erickson that this is an opportunity.
56:23If the Patriots are going to cover, if this is a spot where they play well, it will almost solely be because of Drake May.
56:30So just kidding about last week. It's this week where Drake May is going to get right.
56:35And what could go wrong? What's going to go wrong?
56:38Um, he'll be good and we're totally not going to do this dance again next week.
56:43Uh, if you guys enjoy the tailgate, like we mentioned before, make sure that, uh, you are subscribed on YouTube, leave your,
56:49uh, your favorite calls in the comments, hit the like button, subscribe youtube.com slash tailgate NFL really helps to find, uh, and
56:56get more NFL fans coming and hanging with us.
56:59And we want to continue to grow this channel big and you guys can help us.
57:03And that leaves us to one final thing to watch for week four.
57:07Pat Fitzmaurice, please give us your big, one big thing to watch.
57:11I am fascinated, uh, to see what rookie undrafted rookie free agent quarterback Jalen Daniels is going to do in his first
57:17NFL start against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
57:20Jalen Daniels actually becomes the first quarterback from this rookie class to start a game ahead of Fernando Mendoza and the rest.
57:27So yeah, I mean, I thought it was interesting when two weeks before the start of the season, the Buccaneers made the
57:33decision to go into the year with Jalen Daniels as the lone backup to Baker Mayfield.
57:38Now here it is in week four and he's trying to get them, uh, in the win column for the first time all year.
57:45And like, is this going to be a total disaster where he is just completely overmatched or does he get that first
57:52win for the Buccaneers and play well and have Buccaneers fans wondering why the team gave all that money to Baker Mayfield.
57:58So this is going to be really interesting to watch Packers have their own problems.
58:03So I can't wait to see what's going to happen.
58:06I think you meant, will he be the thermostat and not the, or what was it?
58:10Now I forgot the thermostat, not the thermometer. That's what it was.
58:14Didn't you hear that line? All timeline. And I was staring at it and I was like, oh, cause he means turn it up.
58:21I want to turn it up. Don't be the thermostat.
58:24Be the thermostat. Dude, is it fool me once shame on.
58:27Thank you, Jalen. I don't know which way it's going to go.
58:31Erickson, what are you watching for this week? Bengals Jaguars.
58:34I think that this is going to be the most fun game in the early slate one o'clock window Eastern time.
58:40We saw these teams play last year and we got a shootout and Joe Burrow got hurt in that game.
58:46Usually when Joe Burrow goes down in a game, it ruins all the fun that you get watching the Cincinnati Bengals.
58:52But Jake Browning against Trevor Lawrence brought fireworks last year.
58:55We have Joe Burrow coming off a game where the offense looked significantly better.
59:00They're starting to heat up. Trevor Lawrence has not been pushed.
59:03The Jaguars have not been pushed at all the season.
59:06They played in two blowout games and then in a weird Denver game where they basically stopped scoring points in the second half, 20 to 13.
59:14So I think that this total 51 points, I don't think it's high enough.
59:18I think we're going to see a shootout here in Cincinnati between two teams that are AFC frontrunners, two teams that have MVP caliber quarterbacks.
59:25And I think the defenses are just going to be praying to get some turnovers because I think the offenses are going to rule today.
59:33So this game I'm really excited about. I'm watching the Chargers as kind of I've had multiple weeks, but the reason is
59:39they're the Owen three Chargers are going into Seattle.
59:42A little bit of a tough place to play.
59:45Thought this is interesting though. And you guys can tell me what you think, but the Chargers going Owen for the last
59:51time this happened to them was in 2017. If they are to lose last time was 2017.
59:56Did you know that they ended up that Owen for team rallied and made the playoffs?
60:01And as long as this wasn't fooled by me from this data collection, apparently the only team in NFL history to start
60:07Owen for and then make the playoffs remains the 1992 San Diego.
60:11Chargers who started Owen for and then they finished 11 and five to win the AFC West.
60:16That didn't sound correct to me, but that's what was outputted to me.
60:20Do you think the Chargers, if they go Owen for can make a bounce back like some of their previous iterations Erickson?
60:27No, because this is just the beginning of the end when it comes to their schedule.
60:31It's just a murderer's row of matchups. When you can't hit the layups, man, I just, yeah.
60:36I like your Patriots one, but I like the Patriots bounce back more.
60:40Fitzy, how's Jeremiah Smith going to look in the Chargers uniform next year?
60:44Oh, Jeremiah Smith and Ladd McConkie. That'd be a nice two-some for Justin Herbert to throw to.
60:49Okay. By the way, doesn't that stat not feel correct?
60:52The only Owen 4 team to make the playoffs is the 1992 Chargers.
60:56Well, see, that doesn't sound correct because the other one, the 2017 one.
61:00So I don't know what it was trying to tell me there because 2017 they did it.
61:05Data collection is such a problem. I was very, it was very thermometer and not thermostat for me.
61:10Of course, it's the Chargers though because anything that's like one in 500 teams have not been able to do this.
61:17And the one exception was the Chargers. It's always the Chargers.
61:20Like any team that gets five turnovers wins except the Chargers.
61:23I got to go back and look. Like maybe I just read that wrong, but I'll turn up the thermostat and I'll get going with it.
61:31But there you go. That is going to do it for us.
61:34We are breaking through everything week four. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the channel so you don't miss any of this stuff.
61:42And you want to make sure that you guys are hanging with us because we've got some of those live offerings right here on the channel.
61:49And we want you guys to be able to check out the Betting Pros podcast where we've got some of our best bets for the week.
61:57Erickson and I are going to be doing the prop show as well.
62:01You're going to want to check that out. And we've got some of the singular game breakdowns that Bogman and I do on Betting Pros.
62:08So make sure to go check out our other site, Betting Pros, on the YouTube side and get all your bets in.
62:15That's going to do it for us. For Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice, I'm Chris Welsh.
62:20Thank you for hanging out. We'll talk to you next time on the Tailgate.
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