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10 Fantasy Football Injury Updates To Know Ahead of NFL Training Camps (Ep. 2090)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

38 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 15, 2026
Published
Wed, July 15, 2026
42
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonPatrick MahomesMalik NabersGeorge KittleTucker KraftBucky IrvingChris GodwinEmeka EgbukaJonathon BrooksZach CharbonnetAlec PierceChuba HubbardIsaiah LikelyJadarian Price
Player analysis

Player insights

42

Alec Pierce

PositiveProjection20:54

Analyst believes Pierce could easily replicate or exceed his massive year from last season.

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Bucky Irving

PositiveInjury27:57

Analyst is 'strongly in' on Irving; shoulder injury was the main issue holding him back, with 70% drop-offs in targets and yards after contact post-injury.

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PositiveProjection28:48

Labrum surgery projects to return at pre-injury level with recurrence rate around 15%, supporting optimism for Irving's bounce back.

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PositiveProjection29:08

Analyst is 'in' on Irving, noting he has repeatedly proven doubters wrong throughout his career despite size and speed concerns.

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Chris Godwin

PositiveInjury22:52

Analyst is 'in' on Godwin, noting the data says he should look better than last year and he finished strong (WR21 in last 5-6 weeks).

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PositiveRole23:03

With Mike Evans gone and Mecca Agbuka hitting the rookie wall, Godwin is rumored to be the number one wide receiver for the Buccaneers.

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Christian Watson

PositiveInjury0:18

Fully healthy coming into the season for the first time, which is great news. Dr. Chona views Watson positively, noting that his recurrent hamstring strains were due to a biomechanical asymmetry that was corrected, and his ACL tear was clean and unlikely to cause major problems.

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PositiveProjection0:19

Most players look better in their second year back from ACL injury. With a full offseason behind him, expect Watson to perform better than last year and not be at high risk compared to other players.

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NegativeValue0:20

Boggs is not comfortable pushing chips in the middle rounds for Watson, citing his injury-prone history and the fact that Green Bay is a run-first team that limits his reception volume.

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NegativeProjection0:20

Watson has never exceeded 50 receptions in a season in PPR leagues, limiting his ceiling despite having the talent. Boggs remains one of the lower rankers on Watson and wants to see more evidence of increased passing volume before investing.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Watson had a great season last year with a pace of wide receiver 19 and 13.2 points per game, but questions remain about whether he can sustain that production.

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PositiveProjection21:01

Analyst remains one of the lower rankers on Watson despite his great season last year (WR19, 13.2 PPG), citing cautious approach in early rounds.

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PositiveValue22:01

Watson could be a value pick, with all signs pointing towards a potential breakout from a physical health standpoint.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveValue33:12

Analyst is one of the few remaining Chuba Hubbard supporters, noting almost no one else is sold on him.

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Emeka Egbuka

NegativeInjury23:40

Agbuka suffered a hamstring injury around week six and likely had lingering effects throughout the season, contributing to his rookie wall decline.

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NegativeProjection24:00

Agbuka's decline correlates with Baker Mayfield's injuries starting week two and compounding through weeks 7 and 13, suggesting his early-season performance is what to project going forward.

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George Kittle

PositiveInjury0:13

Expected to play week one after tearing his Achilles in the wildcard weekend. Modern Achilles constructs show return timelines of 5-10 months, and at 8 months post-injury, Kittle is within that window.

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NegativeProjection0:13

Expect a major dip in production, explosiveness, and ability to stay on the field after Achilles injury. At age 32, recovery may be slower. Do not expect the same George Kittle this season; production should improve in the following season.

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PositiveValue0:14

At tight end 10 and 108 overall, Kittle offers good value outside the top 100 picks. The ideal strategy is pairing him with a younger tight end like Isaiah Likely who has upside and a favorable early schedule.

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PositiveValue0:15

Willingness to draft Kittle depends heavily on bench depth and IR spots. With deeper benches (12 teams), pairing him with a backup tight end is viable. With short benches (5-6 spots), better to leave him on the board.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveRole0:06

With Malik Nabors sidelined, Boggs moved Isaiah Likely up in his rankings as someone needs to catch the ball in the Giants offense lacking elite pass catchers.

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Jadarian Price

PositiveProjection25:25

Analyst is a 'Jadarian Price truther' with him ranked at RB21, preferring him over Charbonnet due to recent backfield investment.

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Jonathon Brooks

PositiveInjury33:12

Analyst is optimistic on Brooks in the short term; repeat ACL tear data shows half of players don't return to pre-injury level, but Brooks' draft pedigree and young age work in his favor.

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PositiveValue34:33

Analyst moved Brooks up to early 40s (ECR 41, 130 overall) in redraft, believing it's reasonable to take a swing on him despite dynasty concerns.

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Malik Nabers

NegativeInjury0:02

Suffered a season-ending torn ACL and meniscus in 2025, then underwent a cleanup procedure in May. Only 1-3% of NFL players need this follow-up surgery, suggesting his recovery has not been smooth.

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NegativeValue0:03

At wide receiver 18 and 39 overall (third-to-fourth round price), the risk is too high given the injury uncertainty and recovery timeline. Dr. Chona recommends avoiding him at this price.

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PositiveProjection0:03

Expected to miss at least the first few weeks of the season and likely start on the PUP list, with 4-6 weeks needed to ramp up target volume even after returning.

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NegativeValue0:05

Boggs moved Nabors down to wide receiver 22 in his rankings and stated he is not willing to invest in a player who is injured going into the season due to uncertainty around return timeline.

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NegativeProjection0:06

Rumors suggest Nabors could miss the first 4-5 weeks of the season, making him a risky early-round investment.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveInjury0:08

Trending towards full 11-on-11 clearance by training camp opens after tearing his ACL and MCL in week 15. Surgery was performed the day after injury, putting him on track for a 9-month return timeline that aligns with week one availability.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Quarterbacks do not see a dip in passing production in their first year back from ACL/MCL injury, though they do see reduced rushing attempts and efficiency for the first 12 months until around December.

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PositiveValue0:09

At QB 13 and 97 overall, Mahomes represents the biggest discount since his rookie season. A viable strategy is pairing him with another QB like Jared Goff early in the season until Mahomes is back to 100%.

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NegativeProjection0:10

Before last year, Mahomes had become replacement-level in fantasy football, raising questions about whether he will regress back to that level post-injury.

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NegativeValue0:10

In Super Flex leagues, Boggs does not want Mahomes because he is questionable for the beginning of the season, making him a risky investment in that format.

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NegativeProjection0:12

Boggs expresses concern about Mahomes' overall situation, citing that the injury is getting older, Travis Kelce is aging, Rasheed Rice is coming off injury, and Ken Walker's status adds uncertainty—'death by a thousand cuts.'

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveValue0:17

Boggs prefers Sam Laporta over George Kittle as a tight end option, rating him more favorably despite both coming off injuries.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveInjury26:03

Analyst believes Kraft will be a full go by week one after torn ACL in week nine, with data suggesting 4-6 weeks to normal volume.

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PositiveProjection26:43

Kraft is a 95th percentile athlete entering his peak performance; analyst expects a good strong year, especially in the second half.

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PositiveValue27:11

Analyst is 'in' on Kraft at tight end five (66 overall), noting the cost is about where he would have him.

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PositiveMatchup27:26

Kraft 'shredded' the Steelers last season and got hurt early enough to make his recovery full for week one.

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Zach Charbonnet

NegativeInjury24:24

Analyst is 'out' on Charbonnet due to torn ACL with surgery on February 20th; expects return in October/November at earliest with likely performance dip.

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NegativeDepth Chart25:05

Analyst prefers Jadarian Price (ranked RB21) over Charbonnet due to recent backfield investment and doesn't want to hold an injured player until late November.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

451
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. You get the products you need, same or next day.
0:05Helping you stay in the game. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or stop by.
0:09Grainger. For the ones who get it done. All right and welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:15With the first rookies reporting to camp this week, there's no better time to dive into the latest injuries surrounding the top
0:22players in 2026 fantasy football drafts than today. We'll break down everything you need to know and whether or not these players are worth the risk or not.
0:31I'm your host Seth Woolcock. Still slightly unsure how we made it to this point in the NFL calendar.
0:37And of course, back with me are a couple of the boys of summer, including a man who is a Harvard and Stanford trained orthopedic sports surgeon.
0:46He's a CJ Stroud truther and the founder of Sports Med Analytics.
0:49He's Dr. Deepak Chona. Doc, great to be back with you.
0:53How's the summer been? And have you got a chance to take a break from all the life saving you've been doing?
1:00Yeah, summer's been good. We're hosting the World Cup right now and hopefully we will soon be the attendance of the Super Bowl.
1:07So we're making moves. Let's go. Let's go. I appreciate that.
1:10And also joining us is a man who is not Harvard or Stanford trained, either one of them.
1:16But we love him anyways. He's a man of the people.
1:19It's in the streets. Absolutely. It's Scott, big time, Bogman, Boggs.
1:23Long time no see. Excited for everything we have coming down the pipeline.
1:27BP College Football Channel, that's going to debut here in just a couple of weeks.
1:32I just published my latest top 300 Debbie rankings earlier today at FantasyPros.com.
1:36But today it's all about the pros, my friend.
1:39That's right, man. I can't believe we haven't done a show in so long.
1:43So glad to be back on the mic with you two boys and talk about some of these injuries.
1:49This is the part of the season where we're not upset about the injuries.
1:53We already know that they happen. Yeah. So Deepak isn't making us depressed here.
1:58He's just giving us the information. So giving us hope, if anything.
2:01Yeah. Hope. Yeah. Who do we want? Who do we want to avoid?
2:06Exactly. Absolutely. And before we jump into it all, big shout out to everyone making time for us, either on the Fantasy
2:12Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. We see you.
2:16We appreciate you. Please do us a quick favor.
2:18300,000 followers, subscribers. That is right within reach. We need to get there.
2:22Being subscribed to the channel if you're new. We'd appreciate that.
2:26And also smash that like button. That will certainly help as well.
2:30And guys, let's start here with Malik Nabors, wide receiver for the New York Giants.
2:34Wide receiver 18 currently in the ECR. 39 overall.
2:37He has certainly tumbled down rounds as of late.
2:40The former LSU Tiger, of course, that brilliant 2024 rookie season wide receiver six finish.
2:45Then he already had a nine catch 167 yard two touchdown day in 2025.
2:49But then he suffered that season entering torn ACL and meniscus.
2:53It was then reported in May that Nabors had undergone a cleanup procedure earlier this offseason.
2:58So, Doc, what does this tell you about Nabors projected availability for week one?
3:02And are you willing to buy that dip? As I mentioned, wide receiver 18 and ECR 39 overall.
3:08So third, fourth round price tag. Yeah, it's a pretty pricey tag for a guy who is leaning towards missing week one, according to most data.
3:16So if you look at where he was, he had ACL and reportedly meniscus repair as well.
3:21So that would have put him at an average of about 11 months to return.
3:26Would have been right around September, given a late October surgery.
3:29Now, he's under 25. He has 90 plus percentile athleticism and was drafted in the top 10 of picks.
3:35So with all of that, those factors do predict a faster return both to the field and also to his pre-injury performance level.
3:43However, this extra surgery tells you, one, that it hasn't really been a smooth recovery.
3:47Only about one to three percent of patients need that second sort of cleanup surgery.
3:52Yeah, so it's not that common, especially at the NFL levels where you think the rehab starts day after surgery and is super monitored.
3:59So relatively uncommon. With that being said, you know, the data on this suggests that for most athletes, there's not really a
4:06delay in their return to the field, but there is a delay in them regaining 100 percent strength.
4:12Malik Nabors has also made some interesting comments, and I think they're very reasonable comments that he stated earlier in the offseason.
4:19I won't be out there if I don't feel like myself or if I don't feel like I'm close to 100 percent.
4:26So all of that suggests, you know, in combination with him just entering really his career, that you're probably going to see them slow play this a bit.
4:35I wouldn't be surprised if he starts the season on the pup or at least with some limitations.
4:40And then now with an ACL plus meniscus repair, most wide receivers, even once they do come back to the field, are
4:47going to take four to six weeks to ramp up their target volume.
4:51So all of this together, you're saying, OK, if he's going to miss some portion of the season, potentially.
4:57And even if he starts week one, I wouldn't expect him to look like himself until probably week four to six anyway.
5:04But if he's going to miss some time on top of that, then I would expect him to be pretty solid the last third of the year.
5:13But it's a pretty heavy price tag for me to pay.
5:16So I'm going to avoid him at round three to four.
5:19But you could see the kind of high risk, high reward nature of this one.
5:24It's just that's a little too much for me.
5:27Bogman, where do you stand currently on taking neighbors in drafts?
5:30I mean, when he's healthy, there's a chance he does give you wide receiver one production in an offense that is really lacking elite pass catchers right now.
5:39Yeah, I mean, there is no one else in this offense that you really trust unconditionally outside of Malik neighbors.
5:46So it is really tough. I moved him down to 22, which at this point right now means I'm not going to be the guy investing in him.
5:54I just I really don't like taking a guy that is hurt going into the season because you just don't know.
6:01So like Deepak said initially, how much time is it going to be?
6:05Is it going to be two weeks? Is he going to go on the pup?
6:10Is he going to be eased in after he's off the pup?
6:13Right. So there's so many of those questions. Very interesting to hear that only one to three percent of players have this follow up surgery.
6:21That does not make me feel real good. And, you know, the rumors right now are the first four to five weeks.
6:28So I'm probably just out on Malik neighbors as a whole this year.
6:32But I have moved Isaiah likely up because someone needs to catch the ball here.
6:37It's Darnell Mooney. It's Malachi Fields. Obviously, Wendell Robinson has gone to Tennessee.
6:41So it's just there's not a lot of, you know, veteran pass catchers that we trust for fantasy there.
6:47So somebody's got to move up. And I moved Isaiah likely up.
6:51Yeah, I feel like with all the fading, though, there could be a potential time in your draft where he becomes a value.
6:58I don't know where that line of demarcation is right now.
7:01I mean, if you're talking about moving him down Boggs to wide receiver 22, you're starting to get into that.
7:08Like, at least for me, like that Jalen Waddell, Devontae Adams, Carnell Tate type of tier.
7:13All those players over Malik neighbors for you right now.
7:16Is that kind of like where you stand? Because give me Malik neighbors over like 35 year old Devontae Adams personally.
7:23Like, I know the upside is probably they're stronger to begin the season with Adams.
7:27But I don't mind taking it. Like, I like Jackson Dart here really as a quarterback compared to what they've been dealing with in New York.
7:35Yeah, I mean, I have Devontae ahead of him, but I haven't drafted Devontae once.
7:40So my answer is probably neither. But I do have Waddell ahead of him.
7:44Yeah, I still have him ahead of guys like Tate and Tyson.
7:48I have him ahead of the rookie still. So he's at the bottom of my tier.
7:53I think I would want him as a wide receiver three if I can get him there.
7:59If he goes beyond wide receiver number 24, that's where I want to pick him up.
8:04Because you don't have to trust those guys blindly.
8:06And I probably, he's still conditional. I'm probably also taking another player pretty quick.
8:11Another wide receiver pretty quick after just to give me some floor for those early weeks.
8:16Certainly. Let's go to Patrick Mahomes. QB 13, currently 97 overall in the ECR.
8:202025 really looked like it was going to be that bounce back season for Mahomes, right?
8:25Pacing as the quarterback too before tearing his ACL and MCL in week 15.
8:30The dude's always been a bit of an alien.
8:32We've seen him back on the golf course, allegedly also on the dance floor at Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift's wedding.
8:39So Deepak, we got the report earlier last month from Sports Illustrated Albert Breer saying that Mahomes is trending towards full 11-on-11 clearance by Camp Opens.
8:47Is that what the data is telling you as well?
8:50Yeah. So this one I'm pretty optimistic on. So Mahomes, he had surgery the very next day after his injury.
8:57So that was December, mid-December. A nine-month return is pretty much the average for a quarterback.
9:02So that would put him around September, close to week one in order to be back on the field.
9:08With everything that's been happening so far, and as you said, the dance floor, the golf, the reason those are important is because there's rotation to those activities.
9:16And therefore, that's where kind of if there's going to be residual instability or you're not going to trust the knee yet,
9:23that's where you're going to see it. So I would say I'm pretty optimistic about Mahomes getting back here pretty quick.
9:30Like, quarterbacks don't see a dip in their passing production in that first year back.
9:35They do, however, see a dip in both rushing efficiency and rushing number of attempts in the first 12 months.
9:41So that would put him until about December. So playoffs onwards, you would expect that normal rushing to kind of be back.
9:48But early on, I think you're going to see a little less there, but still very high production.
9:53Boggs, what do you think here about Mahomes? Is he someone you're excited to go out and draft here?
9:59I mean, the biggest discount we've gotten on this guy since really he was a rookie, right?
10:05But there is the question, like before last year, he kind of became like a replacement level fancy quarterback.
10:11So do you think he regresses back to that?
10:14Are you drafting him and pairing him with another quarterback?
10:17What's your approach to KCQB1 this year? Yeah, if I'm in one QB league, I don't have any issues with taking Mahomes
10:24and taking somebody else for the beginning of the season because he is going solo, right?
10:29But if I'm in super flex, I don't really want Mahomes.
10:32Really? Another guy, I just don't want to go into the season with a dude that is questionable for the beginning of the season.
10:40And I think you're hearing a lot of Pollyanna.
10:42I didn't know that the electric slide mattered that much for his recovery here, but we know now, right?
10:48But Deepak, if he misses week one, how bad of an indicator is that?
10:53Is that anything or is that just like, eh, they're being extra careful.
10:57We'll see him week three or week four and he'll be okay.
11:01Yeah, really all indications are that one, he probably will play week one.
11:05But then secondly, you know, if he does have some sort of setback between now and then, that's the thing I would be worried about.
11:13Otherwise, I would just think they're slow playing it a little bit.
11:16The other thing, if you look at Mahomes' history, he's played through MCL sprains and high ankle sprains.
11:22And actually, his kneecap dislocated at one point and he came back, I believe it was two weeks later.
11:28So he's kind of been on that high level of, yeah, durability, you could call it, where players play through injuries and still play very well.
11:36So I would say, again, I would be very surprised if he's not out there week one.
11:41I just feel like he's a value where he's kind of going.
11:45Like, it's not sexy and it doesn't, like, make me super excited to take him.
11:50But, like, if you can get him and, like, Jared Goff, who opens up the season with the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals.
11:57Like, that's a great run for Jared Goff. A lot of those games indoors as well.
12:02So, like, that's kind of been my strategy here in best ball, at least, Boggs, has been grab Mahomes and then grab
12:09some, like, Jared Goff that I can plug in at least for the first couple of weeks until he's maybe back to 100%.
12:16Although I'm with Deepak, I think we do see him as early as week one.
12:21Yeah, I'm just not there. Like, I understand it.
12:24It's a valid strategy. I just, I do worry about him not just regressing before, but also this injury getting a little bit older.
12:31Kelsey's getting older. Rasheed Rice is coming off an injury.
12:34That's fair. Ken Walker. You know, it's like death by a thousand cuts here, which makes me a little queasy about Patrick Mahomes.
12:42Very fair. Let's move on to George Kittle. Right now going off as tight end 10 in the ECR rankings, 108 overall.
12:49Despite missing five games from week two to week six with that hamstring injury, Kittle had a really strong tight end two pace the rest of the way.
12:57However, he did tear his Achilles in the wildcard weekend against the Eagles.
13:01Deepak, what's the latest on Kittle in his recovery timeline from your perspective?
13:06Yeah, Kittle looks like he's going to play week one.
13:09I would also be pretty surprised if he does not.
13:12The common return timelines that we're now seeing with the modern Achilles constructs is somewhere in that five to about 10 months range.
13:19So he has a very good shot to be within that window at eight months for week one.
13:25The thing, though, with the Achilles is that you're usually and I would say usually, but really like very, very commonly seeing
13:32a major dip in production, explosiveness and overall kind of ability to stay on the field the whole time.
13:38You saw Jason Tatum, for example, come back. I would compare them as elite athletes.
13:42Kittle is 94 and 98th percentile in his 40 yard dash and his broad jump, which are kind of the explosive metrics that we're looking at.
13:50But with that being said, he's also age 32.
13:53So that may slow him down a bit. The reason I bring up Jason Tatum is as an elite performer in his
14:00sport, Jason Tatum's shot selection, I think, is telling of how the Achilles really goes in that he was taking a lot
14:07more perimeter shots, a lot more jump shots. Less towards the rim.
14:11So his average kind of distance from the hoop was much greater.
14:15And then he also wasn't quite able to hold up to the like intensity of playoff basketball for the whole series.
14:21So George Kittle, I think, is probably a little bit of a wild card that way.
14:26I don't know that you can expect the same George Kittle that we've been seeing.
14:31I would expect the following season him to look much more like that.
14:35But this season, I think you'll see him out there.
14:38I just don't think you'll see him at A plus production.
14:42OK, I really like that analogy there with the NBA coming into play there.
14:46With Jason Tatum Boggs. And to me, George Kittle, maybe the upside is not as high as what it's been.
14:52But at the same time, it's a really low price outside the top 100 picks.
14:57Are you in on him at current ECR ranking?
15:00And also, does having an IR slot at all change your approach to how high you're willing to take a swing on
15:07Kittle just in case he isn't ready to go week one?
15:10Yeah, I mean, I think the deeper the IR spots, the more and also the deeper the bench spots.
15:16Because I think the perfect thing to do to draft a guy like George Kittle is to, like you just said, taking Jared Goff with Patrick Mahomes.
15:25I think taking Isaiah Likely, a guy that has a lot of upside.
15:29He's going late. You can get for free kind of at the end of most 12-man drafts.
15:34To begin the season. Yeah, exactly. Like that's the perfect pairing to me is Kittle and Likely.
15:39So the deeper my bench is, the more likely I am to take a tight end.
15:44You know, if you have a short bench, six, five, something like that, kind of crazy short, then I'm not taking a backup tight end in that scenario.
15:53There's going to be too many good ones on the wire.
15:57So I'm probably leaving Kittle on the draft board at that point.
16:00I am at 12, so still a tight end one.
16:03But yeah, I'm just not, I won't have many shares of Kittle, but if I do, I will absolutely be pairing him
16:10with a younger tight end that has a nice schedule in the beginning.
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17:51Kittle or Sam Laporta right now also coming off an injury from last season, Boggs.
17:55Who would you rather take? Sam Laporta. Not particularly close.
17:59Okay. I got Kittle. I just recently moved Kittle above him with kind of some of positive news.
18:04My answer's really none of them. Neither of them.
18:07I get it. I'm kind of in the same ballpark pretty much where if I don't get Harold Fannin or Tucker Craft,
18:14like any of those top six guys before that too, I'm kind of just waiting.
18:19Um, George Kittle is not a bad one to wait around for, right?
18:23Especially if, you know, you start creeping into the double digit rounds.
18:27It's going to be really hard to pass up on a guy like that who's giving us good production off injuries in the past.
18:34Let's go to Christian Watson next. Wide receiver 27, 57 overall currently in the ECR.
18:39Fully healthy coming into his season for once, which is great news.
18:43Um, but this is a guy who's missed 20 games across four seasons.
18:47So Deepak, how should we approach players like this?
18:49Like Christian Watson, who they carry that term injury prone around quite a bit.
18:54However, at the same time, now their price is also creeping up there.
18:58Can you make that type of investment and what type of advice can you give to fancy managers?
19:04Yeah, I actually think highly of Christian Watson coming into this year.
19:07I think the injury prone tag is probably used a lot for guys who miss time and maybe rightfully so.
19:14But if you want to look at it as projecting forward, you really have to look at what those injuries were.
19:20And with Christian Watson, he had recurrent hamstring strains, but they seem to have identified kind of a biomechanical asymmetry that predisposed him to this.
19:28And they corrected it before. I think it was two years ago.
19:32So that to me may not be as relevant anymore because they got to the underlying cause.
19:37Now, the ACL tear he had was a clean ACL.
19:40That's not likely to cause major problems for him going forward.
19:44And if you look at him from here, I would expect him to actually look better than what he did last year
19:51in that most players, when they come back from the ACL, that second year is when they really hit their stride.
19:57So with a full offseason behind him as well, I would anticipate relatively clean slate for Christian Watson.
20:03Now, you got to keep in mind, most players will miss time at some point.
20:08So you're not saying banking on him for every game, but I would say I don't really have a strong reason to
20:15say that he's at high risk compared to anybody else.
20:18Boggs, is this the year that you're comfortable pushing those chips in in the middle rounds for someone like Watson?
20:24No. Well, Fitzy and I have gone back and forth on Watson, and I just do think he's injury prone.
20:30And I'm willing to be wrong on that. This is also a run first team most of the time.
20:36And in a PPR league, if you're in PPR, this dude has never had more than like, I think it's 43 receptions, definitely not more than 50.
20:45So never hit 50 receptions in a season. I get frustrated with guys like this because the ceiling is real.
20:51Like the talent is there. You can see it.
20:54You know, the massive year that Alec Pierce had last year, he could easily have that type of year or even better.
21:01Right. I just I don't know if we get to it now.
21:04You know, if Josh Jacobs had to miss time and, you know, we were seeing more trust in in Jordan Love and
21:11then throwing the ball a little bit more like Andrew Erickson has talked about many times.
21:16Right. I want to get to that point. We just haven't seen it yet.
21:21So I'm probably going to remain one of the lower rankers on Christian Watson.
21:25I unfortunately think I will be as well. Like it was a great season for Watson a year ago.
21:31Pace is the wide receiver 19, 13.2 points per game.
21:34So you love what you saw. But but just in general, like maybe the past have cleared a bit like Moses is part of the C's here.
21:43They've gotten rid of some of these secondary wide receivers, the the wicks and the dobs of the world.
21:49Right. So I think things do set up nicely.
21:51But I am also kind of a cautious rafter in my first, you know, six to seven rounds where I'm going to
21:58prefer safer options, even though the ceiling isn't there with players like Jameson Williams, maybe or DJ Moore, Cortland Sutton, those types of receivers.
22:06I'm kind of interested in targeting a little bit more.
22:09But I think Watson could be a value. And, you know, at least Deepak is telling us all signs are pointing towards
22:16a potential breakout as far as his physical health goes.
22:19So let's go on to a little rapid fire.
22:22We're going to give some more injury updates. And we just want to know if you're in or out at current ECR.
22:29Chris Godwin currently another healthy season for him coming into one.
22:32But this is a guy who has missed 30 games, Deepak, across nine seasons, including that terrible fractured ankle back in 2024.
22:39Caused him to slow play it last year. Start a couple weeks after the season began wide receiver 36, 86 overall.
22:46What's your injury update here? Aaron, are you in or out, Dr.
22:50Deepak Jonah? Yeah, the data says he should look better than last year.
22:54And he finished last year pretty strong. The wide receiver 21 in the last about five to six weeks.
23:00So I would say in. Bogman, what do you think here?
23:03It's the same rationale that I have. He finished well last year.
23:07You get rid of Mike Evans. Mecca Agbuka kind of hit the rookie wall.
23:11It felt like at the end of the season.
23:14There's rumors about him being a number one wide receiver for this team.
23:18So absolutely. Did you see anything down the stretch with Emeka Agbuka that told you that guy was injured or anything like that?
23:25Because obviously we saw him pop up on the report multiple times.
23:29Did miss a little bit of time. But he was a guy who, as Bog said, the rookie wall was real for him a year ago.
23:37Yeah. You know, he actually came out one time with a hamstring.
23:41I think it was around week six. And then he came back the next week and didn't really miss any time.
23:48But very rare for a hamstring to really be that mild that it doesn't cause really any lingering impact.
23:54But then you also have to look. And there was a report, I think it was from the Netflix quarterback special on
24:00the number of injuries that Baker Mayfield had starting in week two, but then kind of compounding week seven, I believe week 13 and so on.
24:09And that decline correlates a lot with Agbuka's, in my opinion, in combination with his week six hamstring that was probably lingering for most of the year.
24:17So I think the first few weeks of Agbuka is probably what you should project going into this coming year.
24:23Love to hear it there. Zach Charbonnet currently RB 44, 132 overall, torn ACL, had surgery on February 20th.
24:29Doc, in or out here on Charbonnet? And when do you think we see him back?
24:34Yeah, probably out. I mean, it's a pretty low cost.
24:38But at the same time, week one would be eight months.
24:41And most players are not coming back that fast.
24:44So I would anticipate more likely October, November is when you really see him.
24:48And then if you're really going to see him at that point, you're probably also going to see a performance dip.
24:55So given they just invested in the backfield, my leaning would be that you'd see effective Charbonnet probably more like late November, December.
25:02Boggs, is that worth a RB 44 price tag though?
25:05Because I do like having those difference makers. We get to that third quarter mark where I need running backs and I need them badly.
25:13And here comes Zach Charbonnet. So maybe he's not a league winner, but maybe he's a pinch and, you know, fill in flex type of option.
25:21Yeah, maybe. But I don't want to have to hold a guy until Thanksgiving.
25:26Best case scenario, probably Halloween, you know, to get him back and playing.
25:30And they invested in Jadarian Price. I'm a Jadarian Price truther.
25:33So I have him at 21 in my ranking.
25:36So I'm, I'm more, much more likely to invest in price than I am to mess with Charbonnet at all.
25:42We already mentioned Tucker Craft briefly, uh, tight end there for the Green Bay Packers currently coming in, in the ECR tight end five 66 overall though.
25:51So the price tag is certainly getting expensive. Deepak for a guy coming off a torn ACL suffered in week nine.
25:57Are you in or out on craft? And do you think he's a full go by week one?
26:03Yeah, I think he probably is playing week one now full go.
26:07The data would say would probably take him another four to six weeks to get up to that, that normal volume.
26:13The average would be about four for the tight end.
26:16The, uh, the main thing though is with him, he's a young player.
26:20He was seemingly entering kind of his peak performance and he's a 95th percentile athlete at the position.
26:26So I would anticipate him having a good strong year, especially the second half of this year.
26:31That cost is about where I would have him.
26:34So just depends on my kind of draft layout.
26:37I would say you could take, you could call that in.
26:41Okay. Boggs, what are you, what about you? Are you in or out on, uh, Tucker craft?
26:46I'm in man. Uh, probably because he shredded our Steelers so holy last, uh, last season.
26:51We always get struck by tight ends dude. Every year we do, but he was great and he got hurt early enough
26:58in this season to make his recovery full for week one.
27:01So I'm, I'm in on Tucker craft. I have him at five, right?
27:05Where's he CR is man. Pour one out for all the dynasty managers that took Luke Musgraves over Tucker craft a couple of years.
27:13I was a big Musgrave truth. I thought it was told you not to D bro.
27:18Told you not to God. Listen to the one and only Derek Brown on those tight ends.
27:23Let's go to Bucky Irving. I'm going to tell you guys right now, RB 21, 54 overall.
27:29I am completely out on Bucky Irving. I know Fitz has different feelings.
27:33I'm going to hear from him later in the week.
27:36What his opinion is on maybe on, on a Bucky Irving bounce back.
27:40Deepak though underwent off season surgery, repaired some lingering shoulder.
27:43But he also had foot and ankle injuries causing him to miss seven games.
27:47Are you in or out? And what do you think the impact of this off season surgery should be to drafters?
27:54Yeah, I'm actually pretty strongly in. And the reason is Bucky Irving.
27:58They said the shoulder was really what was holding him up.
28:01And that's if you look at his first four weeks compared to the rest of the season, that's when he sustained the shoulder injury in week five.
28:10Comparing those periods, he had major drop offs of about 70% even in his number of targets and his yards after contact
28:17and then his recept, his receiving yards. So his rushing numbers basically held, but his receiving yards or receiving output basically tanked.
28:23And that's what you would expect with an injured shoulder.
28:27Now, the rest of going forward, the labrum surgery that he had generally projects to return at pre-injury level of performance and
28:34recurrence rate is, is, it does exist, but it's not huge.
28:37It's somewhere around 15%. So with that all in mind, I would be in.
28:41What about you Boggs? It's one 15. I agree on, uh, every single time that we have doubted Bucky Irving, he has made, made us shut up, right?
28:50Coming out of the draft process, the combine, everyone, he's too small.
28:54He's too slow. It didn't look like it did on the field.
28:58Uh, they buried him. Awesome running back coming out.
29:01Uh, last year when he was hurt, just like Deepak said, right?
29:04Like, uh, I was like, they're probably going to ease him in, baby him in.
29:09I said it too, guilty. Threw him right back in and he was the main guy.
29:14So, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm not going to doubt Bucky Irving again, cause it's already bit me twice.
29:20So, uh, I'm, I'm in. Okay. Yeah. Uh, what is the famous George Bush line Boggs about?
29:25Fool me once. Fool me. It fully can't get fooled again.
29:28There you go. Yeah, there you go. I figured you might have a good impression in your bag there.
29:34Um, Cam Scadaboo here running back for the New York Giants.
29:38We'll get out of here on him. RB 1950 overall right now.
29:42So another one where the ranking and the ADP is coincidingly going up right ankle dislocation, fractured tibia and a ruptured deltoidicament,
29:49uh, that he suffered in week eight, but already seen doing some backflips at some charity, uh, softball games here, Deepak.
29:55So what's your analysis on Cam Scadaboo? I would say, first off, this guy's not normal.
30:00And second, and I mean that in the most respectful way possible, but he's very likely playing week one, no limitations.
30:07However, with these big ankle fractures and dislocations, you do typically see a 12 month dip in efficiency.
30:12Now, my thought is without having a lot of data to back it up, that that short yardage roll probably still upholds.
30:19And those are very valuable potential touches, especially if you're trying to get Jackson Dart, right?
30:24Not injured. So I would, I would think that he still has good value, but, uh, yes, also not going to probably
30:31see the peak level of performance until late October.
30:34So. Yeah. Also a great pass catcher. So hopefully can remain, uh, steady in that role Boggs.
30:39That's what I think a lot of people missed on Scadaboo and his profile coming in a season ago, because he was a great pass catcher.
30:48Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you and I followed this kid pretty much from the beginning, uh, of that, you know, just great
30:54Heisman like campaign, uh, in 2024 there. So what's your opinion on Scadaboo RB 19 currently in ECR.
31:00I'm right in a lot in the line with consensus at RB 19 in my ranks.
31:05I'm at 23, but I haven't been the same tier.
31:08Oh man. I think it's like 19 to 16.
31:11Okay. So I have him in that same tier.
31:14He can move up the better he looks in camp and things like that, in my opinion.
31:19But Deepak, I want to know with a smaller running back like Bucky, like Cam, these guys that have gotten hurt recently long-term for dynasty leagues.
31:27Are we more worried about the size profile for these guys getting hurt?
31:31Cause I mean, Cam took massive workload at ASU and then, you know, one season with the giants, he gets hurt.
31:38Yeah. I think it's a fair point. It's one that I, I can't say that there's really convincing data to say that this is a trend.
31:46I mean, you look at Devon H. And as well as a workhorse guy who's upheld.
31:51So I wouldn't really buy into the size argument.
31:54I think they have kind of been that size their whole life and have modified their playing style.
32:00The guys where I do get worried are ones who are like tank Dell, Xavier worthy, who are frame.
32:06Yes. Is. So it's a little bit more of a like qualitative assessment.
32:10And again, not one I can tell you has data, but those are the ones where I get a little nervous.
32:16I have to ask you about one more guy before we leave it, because I've been in arguments with, with Fitzy on it.
32:24Jonathan Brooks with the knee, right? He had the knee surgery when he let his knee in Texas late November, 2024 goes in the draft in 2025.
32:32Uh, obviously the surgery didn't work. He had to redo the surgery.
32:36Uh, are we concerned at all about him? He's looked great in camp.
32:40He looks pretty healthy. I have a lot of love for, for, uh, JB hook him of course, but, uh, I'm not
32:47going to I'm worried because he's coming off this knee injury.
32:50We saw Javante go through like the multiple, multiple surgeries and it took him a couple seasons to get back up to full speed.
32:58There's an opportunity there, uh, for him for sure, because you know, almost no one sold on Chuba.
33:03I feel like I'm the only one Chuba supporter left, uh, around here.
33:07But, uh, what do we think about JB's knee?
33:10Are we, if he's not successful, is it the knee or is it probably just something else?
33:16Well, I think in the short term, I am optimistic.
33:19And if you look at the repeat ACL tears in the NFL, about half of players don't make it back to their pre-injury level.
33:26Now we don't have a clear answer on what his pre-injury level really is because he never really played.
33:32But with that being said, he was drafted. He was highly touted coming into college, also highly touted and highly productive.
33:39So I would have every reason to think that if his pre-injury level, if he gets back, there should be very high.
33:46Now the half that don't make it back, the things that predict them not making it back are late round draft picks
33:53and lower level athletes, not the case with Jonathan Brooks.
33:56And then young age also works in his favor where I would be definitely selling his dynasty because that second ACL tends
34:03to cause accumulating damage to meniscus and cartilage, which are kind of the protective structures that keep the knee feeling good long-term
34:10and, and therefore kind of keep the production good long-term.
34:13So I'd be selling in dynasty, especially if he has, has a good year here, but, uh, I think it's reasonable to take a swing on him.
34:21Okay. I just moved them up. I think I have them exactly at ECR because I was a little low.
34:28Uh, so, but I moved him up into the early forties, which I believe is ECR is what is it?
34:34Uh, Sethi 41. Yep. 41 right now. Yep. One third.
34:37I think I have him at 42, 130 overall currently.
34:40So, okay. Not a bad swing. If you want to take it.
34:44Yeah. You want them in redraft. Don't really want them in dynasty.
34:48I like it. And guys, if you also want to test out what happens when you take an injured player at a
34:55discount, use the fancy pros draft simulator with the draft simulator.
34:58You can run mock drafts in just minutes to see how your roster looks.
35:02When you take one of these guys or pass and pivot to a safer option, go to fancy pros.com slash mock, use
35:09the draft simulator and practice those risk reward decisions before draft day kicks off.
35:14And all right, guys, that is going to do it for us right here on this episode of the fancy pros, fancy football podcast.
35:21Let us know down in the comments below who you're in or out on when it comes to these injured players and
35:28be sure give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it.
35:32And don't forget subscribe. If you're new and download the fancy pros, my playbook app today for Dr.
35:37Deepak Chona and Scott, big time Bogman. I'm Seth Woolcock.
35:41Take care, y'all. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
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