Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Strategy: WRs & TEs to Buy, Sell and Hold (Ep. 2229)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
46 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 30, 2026
Published
Wed, September 30, 2026
15
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
Jameson WilliamsLadd McConkeyRashee RiceCarnell TateDenzel BostonEmeka EgbukaJordan AddisonJustin JeffersonKyle PittsParker WashingtonPuka NacuaTravis Kelce
Player analysis
Player insights
Carnell Tate
PositiveValue70:09
The source advises holding Carnell Tate, citing his top-five talent profile and consistent 25% target share over the last two weeks, despite the lack of immediate fantasy production.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveBreakout67:09
The source views Denzel Boston as a buy, noting he has been the more productive of the two Cleveland Browns rookie receivers. His recent stat line was impacted by a penalty that wiped out a catch, masking his true production level.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeBust30:08
Egbuka is a sell candidate due to the disastrous state of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. The team ranks last in EPA per play and is now starting undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels at quarterback. Egbuka has failed to command elite target volume and has been underwhelming, functioning as a low-end WR3 rather than the ascending player expected.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveProjection26:47
Despite inconsistent production and target dips when Sam LaPorta is healthy, the source prefers Jameson Williams over Emeka Ibuka. The reasoning is the high-upside nature of the Lions' offense, which plays in a dome and frequently engages in shootouts.
Insight pagePositiveValue65:36
The source identifies Jameson Williams as a strong buy-low target, emphasizing that he is part of a high-upside Lions offense and capable of explosive performances similar to his second-half production last year.
Insight pageJordan Addison
NegativeValue72:00
The source suggests trading away Jordan Addison, noting he is ranked behind several rookie receivers (Boston, Tate, Concepcion) in consensus rest-of-season rankings.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection26:52
While Jefferson is ranked higher than Parker Washington, there is a degree of uncertainty regarding his production due to his ankle injury and the lack of established chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray. The source notes it is a realistic possibility that Washington outscores Jefferson for the remainder of the season.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeValue33:58
The source is divided on Kyle Pitts. One the source suggests buying him because he is 'dirt cheap' and likely to be dropped in many leagues, arguing that his poor performance is tied to specific quarterback situations (Cooper Rush/Michael Penix Jr.). The other the source strongly disagrees, citing data that Pitts' fantasy production is cut in half when playing with Penix.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue25:19
The source prefers Ladd McConkey over Emeka Ibuka, noting that McConkey showed flashes of chemistry with Herbert in the first game of the season. While McConkey has struggled with a rib injury and two poor fantasy weeks, the source views him as a better long-term asset than Ibuka.
Insight pageNegativeValue66:41
The source suggests selling Ladd McConkey, clarifying that previous positive comments were only relative to Emeka Egbuka and not a strong endorsement of McConkey himself.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue14:17
Washington is a high-upside target who is currently only showing his floor. Despite being a consensus top-12 receiver, the source believes his ceiling is even higher and he is worth spending up for. He is a preferred trade target over players with injury concerns like Puka Nakua or Justin Jefferson, and the source suggests trading running backs to acquire him to improve roster balance.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeValue0:44
Nakua carries significant risk due to his ongoing injury situation. The source suggests that managers looking for immediate, reliable production might consider trading him for a more stable asset like Parker Washington to avoid the uncertainty surrounding his return and future performance.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveUsage26:23
The source views Rashee Rice as a clear buy/hold, noting that his usage improved significantly in week three. Rice is preferred over both Emeka Ibuka and Jameson Williams due to his positive trajectory in the Chiefs' offense.
Insight pagePositiveUsage65:21
The source recommends holding Rashee Rice, noting a positive trend in his usage that became more apparent following his performance in Miami.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveUsage30:30
The source advises selling Travis Kelce, citing unsustainable reliance on yards after the catch and a significant drop in target share (from 23.4% to 11.5%) as Rashee Rice's involvement has increased. At age 37, Kelce's production is expected to decline as Rice continues to command targets.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Grainger.com or stop by.
0:04Grainger, for the ones who get it done. Overarching, high-level, just general trade strategy advice.
0:08How you're approaching the trade market in Week 4.
0:11If you're 0-3 right now, hope is not a strategy, right?
0:14It's time to make a move. So although you may like the depth on your roster, maybe you've been eviscerated by injuries,
0:21either way, it doesn't matter how you got to 0-3, it's a matter of digging out of your 0-3.
0:26And I think that making trades right now is integral because you got nothing to lose, right?
0:31At this point, I am willing to be a little bit more aggressive in terms of going after some players that you
0:38could see are maybe more boom or bust. A lot of that ties back to guys that are coming off of injuries, right?
0:44Where, how does the Puka Nakua manager feel about Puka right now?
0:48Done absolutely nothing. Maybe you're only three and you have Puka.
0:51Now, we obviously know that some players are attached to teams that have losing records versus players that have winning records.
0:57But I think right now, if you are sitting at 0-3, it's just, you got to be active on the trade streets
1:04this week, specifically going after big upside type of players or also looking just to find ways to stack wins.
1:09So if that's taking one of your stud players and breaking them down into multiple starting assets, you got to find ways
1:16to push the needle in your favor to try to stack up some wins.
1:20Because we all know at the end of the day with fantasy, it's, you just got to make the playoffs, right?
1:26You find a way to get into the postseason and then anybody can make some noise.
1:31So that's what I would echo this week for those looking to make trades.
1:35If you're 0-3, you can't just sit on the sidelines and watch other people make trades.
1:39You got to make some moves. Last year was a really great year for like the five or six seed in your playoffs, making the championship and winning.
1:48A lot of teams, like the ones and two seeds last year, it was, we have the data from the Sinked Leagues at fantasypros.com.
1:54And it was like remarkable how few of the best teams across the regular season won.
1:59And I say that to say, you just got to make the dance, right?
2:03So like do whatever you can to get into the playoffs.
2:06And, you know, you can't take the long-term view.
2:09You can't be looking at, oh, what's this guy's schedule look like in December?
2:13Because then I can kind of build for the future.
2:16Like if you're one and two or especially 0-3, you can't go to 0-4.
2:20And you can't go to one and three. It's really got to be the goal.
2:25So yeah, like you have to take the win now approach and then figure out the league will change.
2:30Defenses and matchups will change. Like the players will change between now and December.
2:34You got to take the short-term view. So I'm with you on this one.
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3:17All right, Eric, let's start with the wide receivers.
3:20Who is your receiver to buy? Ted Roa McMillan, wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers.
3:24Now, Worm, you did mention on our other running backs show that Bryce Young is going through some imaging on his ankle.
3:30So that's something that you just wanted to be, you know, aware of before you send out any godfather deals for T-Mac
3:37because quarterback is a little bit banged up. But that being said, what does the process usually say when it comes to buying receivers?
3:44Once the quarterback goes down, you go scoop him up.
3:47So not to say Bryce Young is going to miss any time, but I think that just what T-Mac has done throughout
3:53the first three weeks of the season, I think that he's being undervalued versus the market.
3:58So he is top of the NFL in terms of total end zone targets without a touchdown yet this season.
4:04So every other player that has as many end zone targets as T-Mac does so far this year has at least three touchdowns.
4:10So I think that he's a strong positive touchdown regression candidate.
4:13You factor in the fact that Jalen Coker is probably going to miss one or two weeks with his quad injury that he's dealing with.
4:21And T-Mac is facing the Lions this week. This is the most smashed spot for a player like him who's clear cut
4:27alpha number one wide receiver on his team, especially if Coker is going to miss some time.
4:32Even when Coker is available in the offense, they had both basically been splitting as the number one receiver in terms of
4:39just raw target volume coming their way. So he's coming off his worst game of the year against the Cleveland Browns, which
4:45was a tougher matchup just based on how they defend perimeter cornerbacks.
4:48Two catches for 17 yards on five targets. But like I said, a lot of two more end zone targets did not score.
4:55Leads all wide receivers and end zone targets without a touchdown yet this season.
4:59So I think that he's just a screaming positive regression candidate across multiple facets and you get the Lions this week.
5:05So that's why he's going to be my buy low.
5:08One thing I would say, he does it the Lions this week.
5:12There is a buy in week five for the Panthers.
5:15So if you are one of these teams who's like 0-3 and like really needs to do well soon, like it's really helpful for week four.
5:22He won't be on your team for week five.
5:25I'm not even saying that that means you shouldn't trade for him.
5:28I just wanted to throw it out so people were aware if they are kind of in an early season hole.
5:34I mean, everybody will have a buy eventually. But from some perspective, it's nice to get out of the way early.
5:41But like I said, I just want to kind of throw that out there.
5:45I was really expecting a big year of touchdowns from McMillan.
5:48You know, he had seven last season, but it felt like – I mean, it took a while for him to get
5:54into the end zone in 2025 as a rookie.
5:57I was like, okay, he kind of figured it out in the second half, like scoring more touchdowns.
6:02And I was really expecting like double digits this year.
6:05And like that to be a big part of how he was used was like in the end zone.
6:11It just hasn't quite landed yet. It's because this guy named frigging Darren Waller.
6:15He gets all the touchdowns. Does it – like I know it was a tougher matchup.
6:19Does it make you nervous at all that like even with Coker going down, he only had two catches for 17 yards?
6:26Like he had been – it had been such a clear 1A and 1B situation.
6:30The 1B was gone. And yet the 1A had his worst game of the season.
6:34Does that make you nervous at all? No, not really.
6:37I think this is a blip on the radar.
6:40He's still running all the routes. They're still talking about how the entire passing game goes through Tedderoa McMillan.
6:46And we knew going in that the matchup against Cleveland on the road, which was the toughest spot that the Panthers had
6:52faced up to this point, was going to be tougher on the perimeter wide receivers.
6:56They are much weaker against the slot, which is why Jalen Coker, if he had not gotten injured, would have probably been
7:03more productive in that matchup last week. And also, too, we talked about it.
7:07Bryce Young dealing with an injury, right? How did that influence how he was able to push the ball down the field
7:13to the perimeter, to the outside the numbers, where T-Mac runs a lot of his routes?
7:18So if Coker's also not playing, I would expect you could see a scenario where T-Mac is going more inside in the slot.
7:25So I just think that he's such a really good player.
7:28Second-year guy, reigning offensive rookie of the year. And I just think that this spot here in Week 4 is going to
7:34be a potential blow-up spot for him. On Sunday night football, the whole world is watching.
7:39Carolina doesn't play a lot of primetime games. I think this is a spot where it's a reminder of, yeah, who's the
7:45guy that won offensive rookie of the year last season?
7:48Ted Aroa. I cannot remember the last time Carolina hosted a Sunday night football game.
7:53It's going to feel weird watching it, honestly. Yeah, you're going to be like, how is this game?
7:58It's like, when I first looked at the matchup, I automatically assumed it was in Detroit, right?
8:03Because, again, four field, of course for the NFL, shootout.
8:06But no, on the road, Bank of America Stadium.
8:08So, yeah, it should be fun. Yeah. Wide receiver 20, by the way, in rest of the season rankings.
8:14Is that too high, too low, or just right?
8:16I think that feels a little low for me.
8:19I would be curious to see. Coker's probably right in a similar range, too.
8:23I know it's a little bit more fluid because he's dealing with his injury right now.
8:28So he actually might have fallen a little bit.
8:30But I have him at wide receiver 17. So I'm curious, where is him versus Malik Nabors?
8:35Nabors is wide receiver 15. Okay. He is five spots higher than Teddero McMillan.
8:39Yeah. Okay. By the way, Jalen Coker is wide receiver 31 the rest of the season.
8:44Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Injury related, possibly. But yeah. Yeah.
8:47Teddero McMillan, wide receiver 20. So if you have him in the teens, that's a guy that's undervalued, in your opinion.
8:53My wide receiver to buy is valued a lot more highly than this.
8:57But I still think it's worth going out and getting Parker Washington.
9:00And I don't know if this is technically a buy high.
9:03It is relative to where he was going in draft season.
9:07I don't think it's a buy high relative to what his value will be across the course of the rest of the season.
9:13And, you know, you look at his game log.
9:16Five for 83 and a touchdown. Seven for 98.
9:18Three for 40 and a touchdown. So he's coming off his worst game.
9:22He did have a touchdown, though. Wide receiver 28 this last week.
9:26He had been inside the top 16 the first two weeks.
9:29He has not topped 17 half PPR points in a game yet this season.
9:33And the usage is just phenomenal. I mean, really, it could even be better.
9:37But, like, it's been enough that we're excited about it.
9:40It's what we kind of wanted to see him as the number one in this offense over the summer.
9:46He's had a couple of touchdowns. He had another awesome touchdown catch that got called back on penalty in the game against New England.
9:53He did still catch a touchdown on that drive.
9:55So, like, it's not like he missed out on his whole other drive worth of touchdown.
10:00But just to say, like, he's making multiple great catches in the end zone for Trevor Lawrence.
10:05It's only going to have him throw to him more often.
10:08And really the reason I bring this up is I think that the industry we're in, Erickson, there was so much talk about Parker Washington this summer.
10:16We couldn't do a show without Washington getting mentioned, right?
10:19I went to the live Scott Fishbowl draft. A bunch of people in the industry there.
10:23You couldn't walk around without hearing people talk about Parker Washington.
10:27He was just, like, such a big name this summer for fantasy analysts that I really want to try to step back
10:33and remind myself that the vast majority of people are not in these conversations every day and might not have had this
10:39high level of hype for Parker Washington. They might not be on fantasy Twitter 24-7 and on Sunday seeing everybody taking their
10:46victory laps and celebrating that Parker Washington looks good.
10:49They might not know that you, the last time we talked, I don't know where he is now, but the last time
10:55we talked, you had him as wide receiver 8 in your rest of season rankings.
10:59They might just be looking at, hey, he's been pretty good.
11:02He's been like a wide receiver 2 and, you know, kind of a nice find if you got him in rounds 5 or 6.
11:09But that's just kind of okay. We have a much higher level of expectation and hype for Parker Washington going forward that
11:16I don't know if every single, you know, kind of more casual league has.
11:20So I really wanted to highlight him to say, like, he has been good.
11:24This isn't a buy low, but we think the ceiling is even better than this.
11:28When I put together the sheet, he was wide receiver 12.
11:32He's actually already bumped up to wide receiver 11 in the consensus rest of season rankings.
11:36But like I said, you had him inside the top 10 last time we talked about it.
11:41I think him versus a guy like Devontae Smith is a really interesting conversation.
11:45I think him versus a guy like Puka is an interesting conversation.
11:49If you just want to say, I don't want to deal with the injury stuff and everything going on with Puka, you could make that trade.
11:56I think Parker Washington is worth spending up for because as good as he has been this season, Erickson, I think we
12:03have still only been seeing the floor, not the ceiling.
12:06And that should be really exciting to people because if this is the floor, what could the ceiling actually be for this rising star?
12:13Just scratching the surface, I think, is a really great way to summarize the Parker Washington 2026 because in the end of
12:192025, he was on an absolute heater. And there's nothing about what we've seen for the first three weeks of the season
12:26that suggests that that production is not going to eventually come to fruition here for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
12:31And this offense, we want parts of this offense.
12:33This offense is a wagon with Liam Cohen. So I think that this is a really sharp buy high type of scenario.
12:40It's very interesting because of where he gets baked into with the other receivers.
12:44I don't think that the receiver for receiver way for Washington, besides like you mentioned with the Puka Nakua thing, just depending
12:50on how a certain manager feels about Puka when he's going to come back, how productive is he going to be?
12:56It's about risk tolerance for that. It's about risk tolerance, of course.
13:00Person, do you want to wait or do you want to take the production now?
13:04Because we know Parker Washington, he still produces at a very high level, even if there's a little bit more meat on
13:11the bone with what he can do. So I still have my wide receiver eight.
13:15I could definitely shift him around because he's around guys like London, Collins, Pickens, Zay Flowers.
13:20So some guys that I was kind of waiting to see, okay, well, they're coming back from injuries.
13:25How are they going to do when they come back from their injury?
13:29I think that's the right conversation, but I think that the angle for Washington is trading a running back to get Parker Washington.
13:35Teams need running backs because of more injuries to the position.
13:39Find the HN manager, find the Brees Hall manager.
13:41Maybe if they have Parker Washington too, something along those lines, I think is the best way to approach it because it's
13:48a lot easier for people to kind of gauge wide receiver versus wide receiver.
13:52And a lot of the times, if you're just moving between tiers of players without like the risk associated with a player
13:58like a Puka, I don't really recommend doing those types of trades because it's a lateral trade, right?
14:03It's like trade Drake London for Parker Washington. Great.
14:06It's a challenge trade. Yeah. Like we both got wide receiver ones.
14:10Like, okay, like you may like one guy more than the other, but if they're ranked back to back in rest of
14:16season rankings or wherever they're ranked, I don't really feel like your team is getting that much better.
14:21It's just, well, I think this guy's going to be better rest of season or et cetera.
14:26Whereas running back wide receiver trades, okay, you can actually make your team better for where you actually need the most help
14:33at wide receiver by going out and getting a guy like Parker Washington if you were running back situation is a little bit better.
14:40So he's a good name that we brought up.
14:42Yeah. It's one of those where like when you do this show or if you've been listening to this show like every
14:49day and you're one of those types of listeners who are with us all the time, we really appreciate you.
14:54You might roll your eyes at this and be like, okay, yeah, duh, everybody knows about Parker Washington.
15:00I don't think that's the case for everybody though.
15:02So I really wanted to make sure I mentioned him in that framing.
15:06Like George Pickens was ahead of him when I put together this sheet and I was going to be like, I would
15:12trade Pickens for Parker Washington pretty happily. He's now one spot lower.
15:16So that is one where I would actually be interested in like a challenge trade in terms of the rankings.
15:22But I think it's a fair point that like so many people need running backs.
15:26And if you took Parker Washington, he's probably like your wide receiver two or maybe even three.
15:31And therefore you could say like, oh, well, like I'm in such a dire straight shit running back that I can now kind of make that trade.
15:39So he's also just an awesome player. Like I just, I just want to have as much Parker Washington as I can.
15:45Is Parker Washington behind Zay Flowers and Drake London now?
15:48He's behind both. Zay Flowers is wide receiver eight.
15:51Drake London is wide receiver 10. And then Washington is wide receiver 11.
15:55Yeah. So I've just updated my, so I'm moving Parker Washington behind those two guys as well.
16:00I mentioned that I was still kind of figuring out how those guys were going to come back from their injuries.
16:06And they both look really, really good or not Drake London's injury, but Michael Penick's playing his first game, obviously.
16:12Super smash. I think you could make a really interesting case of Justin Jefferson versus Parker Washington.
16:17Like Jefferson is ranked higher and I think probably correctly so.
16:20I have a degree of certainty with Parker Washington that I don't feel like I really have with Justin Jefferson.
16:26Ankle injury, Kyler of it all. Like, you know, we will see what that actually ends up looking like long term.
16:32But I think there is a very realistic possibility that Parker Washington outscores Justin Jefferson the rest of the season.
16:38We haven't really seen it with Kyler yet, right?
16:40Exactly. It's really weird that we've already played three games.
16:43Imagine saying this, right, where the Vikings are 3-0 and we still have no idea how Kyler and Jefferson gel together.
16:49Like, we literally have no idea how these guys play together.
16:52And we still might not know if Jefferson doesn't play against Miami, which this would be the spot, right?
16:58Where he should just absolutely smash. But assuming his ankle is okay, that should be the expectation.
17:03Yeah. Never wonder if you're winning a trade again.
17:05The Fantasy Pros Trade Analyzer instantly evaluates any deal based on your roster, scoring settings, and league, showing both the short and long-term impact.
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17:15Analyze your next deal at fantasypros.com slash analyzer or on the Fantasy Pros app.
17:19Hey, it's Ashanti Plummer from Foot Around and Find Out.
17:22Coming out of the draft, it's been a special time for us here at Foot Around.
17:27I want to thank everyone from the fans to the sponsors, especially Geico.
17:31Not just for supporting AZ, but for showing up where it matters.
17:34Like the Business of Women's Sports Summit. That kind of thing really moves the needle.
17:38And now that AZ's starting a new life in Dallas, we don't know what next season is going to bring.
17:44But we know that we're all on the same team.
17:47And it's been amazing to feel the love and support.
17:50So keep showing up for our girl. Show up for each other.
17:54Thanks to Geico and our listeners. Erickson, give me a wide receiver to sell.
17:58So the theme with our running back trio to sell was selling the Buccaneers, right?
18:02You listed Bucky Irving as one of those options.
18:05And I said sell because I want to sell this Buccaneers offense.
18:08And that includes Emeka Egbuka. So this one I really toyed with for a long time.
18:13My wide receiver to sell. And I didn't want to just cop out and say, guys, just sell DK Metcalf.
18:19Like, we know exactly what we're doing here. I didn't want to do that.
18:23I know he's coming off a game where he caught a touchdown.
18:26But with Egbuka, through three games, he has been outside the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy scoring.
18:31So that was with Baker Mayfield in this offense that has just been really underwhelming under new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson.
18:38They are seventh worst passing yards per game, fifth words yards per play, sixth worst in total yards per game, and dead last in EPA per play.
18:45This is what the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has been with its starting quarterback.
18:50Now you're throwing in an undrafted rookie free agent, Jalen Daniels, to be the starter for the next month or so for the season.
18:57I don't know if we even see Todd Bowles as the head coach by the time Baker Mayfield comes back to this team.
19:03We don't know if Zach Robinson's going to keep his job as the offensive coordinator.
19:08So I know that we were saying it tongue in cheek about how this boat is taking on water.
19:13The ship has sailed on the Buccaneers. All the puns you can think about.
19:17It's all true, though. Like, this offense is a disaster.
19:20So I don't want any part of it, and I'm willing to sell a player like Ibuka, who has just been meh
19:27to start the season, has not really commanded this elite level amount of targets in the offense like we thought we would from a ascending second year player.
19:35And really, it's been more of what we saw in the second half of last year with Ibuka and nothing like his
19:41hot start to his rookie year where he was a borderline fantasy wide receiver one.
19:46That guy has not returned or shown up in 2026.
19:49There are still other pass catchers in this offense that command targets.
19:52Ted Hurst is making plays. Chris Godwin is still out there.
19:55So for me, Ibuka, I just he's a wide receiver three.
19:59Like, that's where I think he should be appropriately valued.
20:01And there's a scenario where it gets even worse because of how this offense might shake out without Baker Mayfield, who was already playing really, really bad.
20:09So I know that my process is always about buying the elite talents when their quarterbacks go down.
20:15And I still think that is the right way to approach these situations most of the time.
20:20However, where is the elite Ibuka? That is my main concern.
20:23I don't know if he is elite because we've seen it now for this year, second half of last season.
20:29We haven't seen that elite guy. And that's what concerns me, that he is not good enough to overcome the situation that
20:35is just getting worse and worse as the weeks go on in Tampa Bay.
20:39If this is a fire sale scenario where the fire of the coach, the fire of the OC, are the Bucs going
20:45to be drafting quarterback next year because they have a top five draft pick?
20:50Because that's how the story looks like it's shaping up.
20:52So Ibuka, is this just so obvious that Ericson can't sell Ibuka for anything?
20:57Like, what are you doing? Or is there a name brand cachet with him where you can move him for something or package him?
21:04Well, what's interesting with Ibuka is it is a pretty encouraging schedule coming up.
21:08Green Bay and Dallas are the next two games.
21:10Those are two defense. And again, we talked about in the running back show, like Dallas' secondary is a non-starter right now.
21:17So maybe they get healthier by then. But right now that looks really appealing.
21:21Week six is Pittsburgh, possibly with still no Joey Porter Jr.
21:24You get to Carolina who's giving up a big game, usually on the ground, but they have had an up and down defense this year.
21:31Chicago and Detroit are coming up shortly after that.
21:34Like, the schedule is pretty encouraging. So maybe that, again, I talk about this a lot, maybe that's a selling point in
21:40trying to move him and say, Hey, like it's been tough, but look at the schedule coming up.
21:45Or maybe that's a reason to hold. I kind of lean more on the hold side than the sell.
21:51I wouldn't be buying. I am nervous enough. And again, you said like you usually like to go buy receivers after the quarterback goes down.
21:58I wouldn't do that here. So I'm with you in that regard.
22:02I do think it's hard for me to forget about the first impression, right, that we saw from him last year.
22:08And I also had high hopes for Zach Robinson.
22:11So it's also hard for me to get rid of those entirely after three weeks.
22:15And, you know, the Vikings are a defense that are going to make a lot of teams look pretty bad.
22:21And he still had nine targets, five catches, 62 yards.
22:24Like it wasn't this big breakout game, but, you know, he led the team in receiving yards and all that.
22:29So like, I don't know, like there's enough there that I can't quite bring myself to give up on it.
22:35But having said all that, that might be true of other managers in your league.
22:40They might be saying, oh, there's enough there. This is a guy who before the toe injury this summer, like I was
22:46going to take in like the third round of drafts.
22:49Like I was super excited about. And they have this really nice schedule coming up.
22:53So there might be somebody in your league who would pay more than I'm expecting you to get, in which case I am on board with it.
23:01So that was really, again, long-winded way of me saying like I'm holding based on how I am valuing Ibuka.
23:07But I think there's a chance that managers in your league are valuing him more than I'm valuing him.
23:13In which case, yes, I would be willing to sell in that scenario.
23:16And it's good to just communicate with your league and say, hey, guys, like I'm open to moving Ibuka.
23:22I'm also open to holding him. I still do like him.
23:25But I wanted to throw it out there in case anybody is really buying into, you know, a nice kind of recovery
23:31of this season with Jalen Daniels or with the schedule coming up.
23:35So I think it's worth communicating to your league that he's available, but that you're not desperate and just like trying to
23:41sell no matter what, if that distinction makes sense.
23:44Yeah. I mean, all of this requires that nuanced context because it's the price, right?
23:48What can you get for Ibuka? Where is he in the rest of season rankings?
23:53He is at, I had his player card up.
23:55Why does he were 24? So that's, that's pretty hot.
23:58It was high. It was 19 a week ago.
24:01It has dropped five spots in the last week.
24:04I mean, he has not finished as a top 24 receiver any week this season.
24:08Yeah. And that was with his starting quarterback. So is that more?
24:11Has he been inside the top 30? No, he's wide receiver 32 is his best finish.
24:16Yeah. So that's what I mean. Like, that's what really kind of stood out to me where it's like the week that
24:22he scored the touchdown, he didn't have the yardage or the catches to go along with it.
24:27So he hasn't really put together a complete week.
24:30We're seeing more of the bad version of Ibuka like we saw at the end of last year, his rookie season.
24:36And that's where I get concerned. And the fact that he's still being valued as a top 24 guy when he has
24:43not been that guy with his starting quarterback. Unless you want to spin it as Jalen Daniels and upgrade over Baker Mayfield.
24:49And I mean, the way Baker Mayfield has been playing, I don't necessarily disagree.
24:53That's tough. But yes, to your point, like I that's why I just think that this is going to get worse for Tampa Bay.
25:00Like when we're talking about next week, it's going to be a home man.
25:04They're facing the Dallas Cowboys. But oh, man, this offense was so bad in week four against Green Bay.
25:10Like that's the concern where then what are you doing with Ibuka?
25:13So you held him versus. That. Yeah, that's why I'm like, I think I just don't want box, man.
25:19Like, would you rather him or Lad McConkie? They're back to back.
25:22Oh, I would easy much. I'd have a lad easy.
25:25That's easy for me. Oh, really? OK, I'm surprised.
25:28You'd rather have Ibuka than Lad? No, no, no, no.
25:31I would rather have Lad. I just I thought it was close.
25:34I didn't think it was easy. Lad has been two bad weeks in a row.
25:39We just we talked about that defense that Herbert has coming up when we talk about the quarterbacks.
25:44Like Lad has his last two weeks were five fantasy points, 8.6 fantasy points.
25:48That's wide receiver 61 and wide receiver 43, respectively.
25:50And now he gets at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City by at Rams.
25:54Houston at Baltimore. So like I agree. I would prefer Lad, but I think it's closer than than your reaction, at least.
26:01Lad did hurt his rib. So that's one thing that at least I would give him that excuse.
26:06And there was that first drive in the first Chargers game where Lad and Herbert looked unstoppable, which has never been a
26:12case for anything with the Bucket Nears offense this year.
26:15So so like that itself would be the reason why I would gravitate towards Lad as the option there, because he's like what about Ibuka or Rice?
26:23Rice, who was getting terrible usage early on. Debro was all over this.
26:27Got better usage in week three. Would you rather have Rice?
26:30Rice. Is that one also easy? Yeah, Rice definitely as well.
26:33Yeah, I agree on Rice. Okay. One more. Jameson Williams or Emeka Ibuka.
26:37He's two spots behind in consensus. Jamo has been not good to say the least.
26:41The first week. Would you say buns or cheeks?
26:44He doesn't deserve that. It's been so bad. The Sam Laporta splits have been bad for him in terms of how his
26:50targets, receptions yards have all dipped when Laporta has been healthy.
26:54And that has been the case. But going back to which offenses do you want to attach yourselves to?
26:59Do you want the Buccaneers offense that is declining out their quarterback?
27:03Or do you want Jared Goff who plays in a dome with a terrible defense that plays in shootouts?
27:08Jameson Williams could bust. But the games that he has monster performances, I'm willing to buy that.
27:13So I would actually also take Jamo here. I've got a wide receiver to sell for you.
27:18Jordan Addison. He's wide receiver 43 in the rest of season consensus rankings.
27:22Obviously coming off of a nice game. Five catches, 90 yards, and a touchdown.
27:26I just kind of feel like Addison is such an up and down.
27:30He's such an up and down receiver already who's now playing with an up and down quarterback.
27:35And I just kind of want to take the opportunity.
27:38Coming off a really good game. I think there might be managers out there who say, okay, like seeing him really with Kyler.
27:44Maybe there's a nice connection here. I just kind of want to take advantage of that and trade him.
27:50This might look really dumb because they play Miami this week.
27:53And maybe the correct answer is wait one more week.
27:56And then, oh, he's coming off of two really big games.
27:59And then you try to trade him. And I'm not opposed to that being the path that you choose to take.
28:05But for me, I just think it's such a roller coaster that I don't want to ride that coming off of a
28:12wide receiver 10 finish in a really nice game.
28:14I just want to kind of snap at the opportunity and see what I can sell him for.
28:20Because I don't think this is going to be a consistent thing with him given the offense he's in and the player he is.
28:27And I like the player just like, you know, this ankle injury doesn't seem that concerning for Justin Jefferson.
28:32So when he's back, what do the targets look like?
28:35All of that. And, you know, he is not ranked that highly, which I think is worth noting.
28:40Again, some of the names around him, Brian Thomas Jr., who has been buns slash cheeks.
28:45Romeo Dobbs has been terrible. Casey Concepcion, like he's not ranked amongst a bunch of receivers that are super appealing.
28:51So it might be that you actually can't get that much for him.
28:55But I think if you can find a manager in your league who's like, oh, look at the connection with Kyler.
29:01Jefferson's banged up. I want this guy on my team.
29:04I think you take advantage of it. I agree.
29:06These boomer bus wide receivers that you can flip after they pop off.
29:10It's the same reason why you buy Jameson Williams after he has turd games and then you sell him after he has a lot of performance.
29:18I had Jameson Williams in mind when I mentioned this in the sheet because I knew you would bring him up.
29:24Yeah. And I think, too, the fact that Jefferson is banged up a little bit, I think, and they're facing the Dolphins.
29:30Like, there's a chance that Addison still has another really productive game in week four.
29:34I bet he does. I bet he has a big game this week.
29:38Yeah. But that's also a reason why, OK, I don't need this type of production because nobody started him last week.
29:44Right. So this is something I always think about with trades.
29:48Right. Where someone blows up on your bench and you're super frustrated.
29:51Trade that guy. Because clearly you didn't have the confidence to start him anyway.
29:55Number one. And it's just going to it's going to be a player that brings you more pain than success or joy
30:02because you never know when to start them. Trade those guys like those guys have no reason to be on your roster
30:08because all they do is just make you tilt your face off.
30:11So Addison, definitely one of those players. Move them.
30:14Let's do some tight ends. You've got one to buy and one to sell.
30:18Can go through these a little quickly. Who do you have for us?
30:22So Travis Kelsey is going to be the guy for me to sell because I just don't think that his production is going to sustain here.
30:30So if you look at yards after the catch, Travis Kelsey leads the entire NFL and yards after the catch.
30:35And to me, that just seems very unsustainable for the soon to be 37 year old Chiefs tight end.
30:41And the big thing and you actually kind of alluded this to when talking about Rashi Rice, Rashi Rice had one of
30:47his biggest games of the year in week three, caught seven of a team high, nine targets for 88 yards.
30:53He did not score, but his target share tripled from week two up to nearly 35% while Travis Kelsey's target share fell
31:00by more than half, 23.4 to 11.5%. So Kelsey scored a touchdown.
31:03He got the first play of the game, a 48 yard catch and run.
31:07This is not going to sustain because we've seen in the past when Rashi Rice has been operating at a high level.
31:14He eats into Travis Kelsey's underneath targets. And that's not to say Rice is actually being used a little bit more downfield.
31:20I just don't think that Kelsey's production is going to sustain the way that it's been over the last three games where
31:26he's been ripping off like these monster plays so much yards out to the catch.
31:31And he had his age. I don't think that's going to sustain Rice's career high in terms of target share happened in this last game.
31:38Third highest area share ever in a game. So if Rice is now healthy and he's ready to go in this knee
31:44rehab injury thing is all past him. And that's why he was struggling in the first two weeks of the season to command targets.
31:51Then this is a rude awakening for those that have been riding Travis Kelsey.
31:56So the fact that he scored a touchdown last week, I think is the perfect time to wipe your hands clean of
32:02Kelsey cash out now because I don't think that it's going to get better if Rice continues to see this much involvement.
32:08Sorry, I was getting a call. Did you give your tight end to buy as well or just the sell?
32:14I got distracted. I didn't hear if you did that.
32:17Got distracted. See, this is why you're going to be you're going to be out buying Travis Kelsey.
32:2237 year old tight end in a 28 year old body.
32:26That's a word. Thanks. I paid attention to everything you said about Travis Kelsey.
32:30I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss.
32:32Did you also give him? No, I mean, it would not surprise me if I said Kyle Pitts is a buy in
32:39a win in one year, one year, not the other, because that's definitely what it feels like.
32:44And for starters, transparency, Kyle Pitts was someone I was not drafting, did not want any part of Kyle Pitts in terms of his draft stock.
32:51I cited a lot of the Drake London splits, the Kirk Cousins splits that he's much worse when Drake London is healthy in the lineup.
32:58And that has been apparent for three games. He's much worse with Michael Penix Jr.
33:03than Kirk Cousins. And Cousins is not walking through those doors anytime soon to take over as the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback.
33:09But that all being said, I don't think what Kyle Pitts has done through the first three weeks of the season is
33:16going to be what it looks like for the rest of the year, right?
33:20He's basically done nothing. And I think it's fair to point to the first two weeks as, okay, Mulligans.
33:25We talked about how this offense was so horrible with Cooper Rush as the quarterback.
33:30So I kind of want to give him a clean slate for those first two games.
33:34And then this past week, okay, it's the first game with Michael Penix back.
33:38Penix is obviously going to lean on Drake London as his number one guy, which is what we've seen from in the past.
33:45Kyle Pitts, another nothing burger for him. But now that it's been three weeks in a row, Kyle Pitts is basically being
33:51dropped across leagues because he hasn't done absolutely nothing.
33:54But Stefanski, we've seen in the past operate with tight ends.
33:57And the thing with me, it's the price for Pitts where he's just dirt cheap, man.
34:02You're going to find him on waivers this week.
34:05People are going to be dropping him to pick up Kenyon Sadiq and these other tight ends.
34:10I actually looked at him versus Sadiq in my rest of season rankings for a long time, trying to figure out who
34:16I actually would want for the rest of the season.
34:19I don't know if I actually came to a strong conclusion on which guy I actually do want more, Kyle Pitts or Kenyon Sadiq.
34:26But that's like the territory that we're talking about with his price.
34:29So the route participation is still okay. 75%, I believe, in his two healthy games or the two games that were not
34:36played by the Cooper Rush, where Cooper Rush in week two, they took Kyle Pitts out of the game because it was a blowout.
34:43So that's my spiel on Pitts. Worm, thoughts? I couldn't agree with you more on selling Kelsey.
34:48I couldn't agree with you less on buying Pitts.
34:50And with Pitts, I am in total agreement with you on tossing out those first two games.
34:55But it's not just week three that he has not been on the same page with Michael Penix.
35:00It's been all the time. You just hit on this.
35:03So FantasyPros has the with or without you kind of splits tool.
35:07I would strongly encourage everybody to check out. Kyle Pitts with Michael Penix Jr.
35:11as the quarterback. He almost cuts his fantasy points in half that he scores.
35:15It goes from, on average, 13.18 with Penix not there to 7.79 with Penix in.
35:19You know, the targets are down by a couple.
35:22The receptions are obviously down. Receiving yards go from 57-ish a game to 35 a game.
35:27He just doesn't get the usage. Look, Penix loves throwing to Drake London.
35:31He does not throw to Kyle Pitts that much.
35:33And so while I'm okay to throw out weeks one and two, I'm not okay to throw out week three because I
35:40think that's more reflective of what Pitts has been with Penix as a quarterback in the future.
35:44So I, with Drake London healthy and performing and Michael Pitts healthy, I don't, I don't, excuse me, Michael Penix healthy, I
35:51don't think that there's going to be a lot there for Kyle Pitts.
35:55So I'm not interested in buying him. He's tied in 14 rest of season rankings.
35:59Like, I'd rather take an injured Terrence Ferguson right now and hope that when he's healthy, he's getting better, you know, the
36:05usage we were hoping for this week. Mark Andrews has looked good at times this year.
36:10He hasn't been that productive yet. I think I'd rather have him than Kyle Pitts.
36:14Jake Ferguson, I think, is not somebody that I want to be heavily investing in.
36:19But, like, I do think he'll be more productive than Pitts for as long as Penix is the quarterback here.
36:25On the Kelsey side, I, again, couldn't agree more.
36:27Or just given the age, early production, like, I just don't think it's going to last throughout the entire season.
36:33And, and I'd be really interested in selling. Would you sell Kelsey for Pitts straight up?
36:38Because there's a five spot gap in the rest of season rankings at tight end between them.
36:43No, I think I would definitely aim higher than Pitts.
36:46Because, like, that, that, again, I want to be clear, right?
36:49Because I agree with you in terms of Pitts as his production has fallen.
36:53That's why I didn't draft Pitts, right? Like, this isn't a problem that I'm really running into.
36:58It's because I did not like Pitts in the combination.
37:01But the fact of the matter is, the dude is now free, right?
37:05And he was a tight end that was drafted as a top 10 guy.
37:09Consensus, tight end during draft season. The two bad, and the fact that it's been three compounded bad games, I just think
37:15that there's an opportunity for, hey, see what happens, right?
37:18Is he going to have one catch every single week?
37:21No. Especially with the fact that it's such a concentrated target share between guys like London.
37:26And Jahan Dotson doesn't catch targets in this offense.
37:28So, and Kevin Stefanski, right? That was one of the big selling points for the Pitts stands was Stefanski likes to feature tight ends.
37:35And he continues to talk about how, okay, we got to get Pitts more involved.
37:40So, I do think that he's going to see more volume in future weeks.
37:44It feels crazy to think that you'd rather have Pitts than Kelsey.
37:47But I think when we have this conversation in a couple weeks, it may not seem as crazy.
37:52Pitts is far from bulletproof, right? As we've seen when he plays with London and also with Michael Penix.
37:58But man, I think I want more for Kelsey.
38:01Because Kelsey has been really, really good and really productive.
38:03I think you should definitely aim higher. I don't think I would do a tight end for tight end trade with Kelsey.
38:10I think it's tight end for best available running back and receiver.
38:13Whoever has the worst tight end situation, I am sending them Travis Kelsey with deals.
38:18Yeah, but you might need to get a tight end back.
38:21You might not have another one if you have Kelsey.
38:24Well, I mean, you can trade Kelsey and pick up Kyle Pitts after he gets dropped.
38:29Because I think that's the thing. I mean, people in Discord are asking me, can I drop Pitts?
38:34Can I drop Pitts? Can I drop Pitts? Yeah, I mean, that's a fair question, I think.
38:39He does owe us six touchdowns. Whatever year of the league he's in, he gets that many touchdowns.
38:44And this is year six of Yose's six at some point.
38:47So you know when they're coming, weeks four through 18.
38:50Yes. All right, let's do some Bicellar Holds on the receivers.
38:53Then we'll get out of here. I mentioned a couple, actually all three of these names have been mentioned over the course of this show.
39:01So we'll do the first one here. Lad McConkie, Jameson Williams, Rasheed Rice.
39:04Again, all of them have come up earlier on the episode, so I'm curious what direction you're going.
39:10Bicellar Hold, Lad, Jameson Williams, and Rasheed Rice. Yeah, you sly dog.
39:13Sliding all these names in so that I already give out takes and then I have to either stick to them or completely change my train of thought.
39:21Buy, Sell, Hold. Lad, Jamo, Rice. So Rice is definitely a hold.
39:25I think you're seeing the usage trend in the positive direction for him.
39:29He was someone that I was kind of on the fence with last week.
39:33And now after obviously seeing what happened in Miami, that's positive.
39:36So I want to hold Rasheed Rice. Because Jamison Williams is always just Lions offense, man.
39:40You just want to have parts of it. And if he can catch fire like he did in the second half of
39:47last year, he's a good buy low target. I feel like he's always a good buy low target.
39:52Like when in doubt, I'm just like, just buy Jamison Williams.
39:55I'm like, you know he's going to have a couple big games.
39:59So Jamo will be the buy and then Lad.
40:01I know I did talk about him over Ekbuka, but Ekbuka was also my sell.
40:06So unless I can sell Lad or sell Ekbuka to get Lad, I'd probably be selling Lad too.
40:11Okay. So yeah, so that easy choice of him was relative to Ekbuka, not a strong endorsement.
40:16Yes. Yeah, that's a good way to paint a picture of it.
40:20One other trio here. How about three rookie receivers, Erickson?
40:22Buy, sell, or hold? Denzel Boston, Carnell Tate, Casey Concepcion.
40:25You sick, sick fiend, putting these three rookies against each other.
40:29Hmm. I think you got to hold Denzel Boston.
40:31Maybe he's even the buy, honestly. Honestly, I think Denzel Boston might be the buy because he's coming off a game where
40:38not super productive, out targeted by Casey Concepcion. Concepcion was brutal though, in terms of his actual efficiency with the amount of
40:44volume that he got, which to me isn't a signal of, oh, this is a guy, this is time to buy low on a receiver.
40:51It's, okay, we gave Casey Concepcion a ton of volume and it was not good.
40:56Let's give the ball to somebody else. Unfortunately, I think that's how coaches think sometimes.
41:00By the way, just to give the stat line, Erickson, nine targets and he was wide receiver 102 on the week.
41:06Dude! Two catches for nine yards on those nine targets.
41:09Dude, that is brutal. So that's tough to obviously be like, yeah, you got to hold on to this guy.
41:15Boston has definitely been the better of the two Cleveland Browns rookies.
41:18So I think that he would be the buy.
41:21He did have another catch in this past game that got wiped out due to a penalty.
41:26So if that catch had counted, he would have been closer, I think, to around 64 receiving yards total, which is more
41:32in line with his first two weeks of actual production.
41:35So Boston, maybe there's a bit of a buying window with him after he was out targeted by Casey Concepcion, even though he was more productive again.
41:43So Boston will be my buy. Concepcion, unfortunately, probably is my sell.
41:47Even though I think both Browns receivers are kind of holds.
41:50I think the fact that Boston has just been so much better than Concepcion to start the year, just maybe too aggressive,
41:56assuming that Concepcion would be the number one receiver in this offense.
42:00So maybe he would be probably my sell again, if you can sell off the targets, that makes sense.
42:05And then no one's buying Carnell Tate anyway. So you can't really sell him.
42:09So he would probably be my hold because I do think that he has looked decent at times attached to Cam Ward
42:16is never fun, but that's why you can't really trade him for anything.
42:20So I will hold Carnell Tate, hold on to the top five talent, 25% target share back to back weeks.
42:25And I'm not afraid of Wanda Robinson being like a major thorn in his side for the majority of the season.
42:31So Carnell Tate, I feel very much like the Braveheart gif of just hold, hold.
42:36Like I've like tried to give it like, I know it's not been good.
42:40Top five rookie receivers. It just is a smart bet.
42:43Like even if it doesn't look good in the first three weeks of the season, it might not pan out.
42:49I'm not saying it's a 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.
42:52I am saying that it is a smart bet to hold on those types of players.
42:57Do, can you trade Concepcion to get Carnell Tate?
42:59So by the way, I was going to mention, these guys are all ranked very near each other in the consensus rest of season rankings.
43:06It's Boston wide receiver 39, Tate wide receiver 40, Concepcion wide receiver 42.
43:10So they are all right within each other. Yeah.
43:13So I'm actually higher on all of those receivers relative to the rest of season rankings, but I also have them in that order of Boston.
43:20Would you, would you trade Jordan Addison for any of these guys?
43:24I think I'd trade for Boston probably. Because Addison is behind, Addison is behind all four or all three of them in consensus the rest of season.
43:32Behind them or in front of them? Behind them.
43:34He's wide receiver 43. They're 39, 40, 42. He's right behind.
43:38He's one spot behind Concepcion. Yeah. So, yeah, I actually think I agree with holding Tate if you have him.
43:43I would be willing to buy him, honestly, again, just on principle because I don't think it would cost much.
43:49I would not spend up, but I would be willing to buy him at what I think is a low cost on
43:56principle and just blindly trust top 10, top five rookie receivers later in the season.
44:00Just blind, blind faith. Comments. Let Worm hear it.
44:03His week one sell is now by Carnell Tate.
44:05Wait, let him in. Let's go. I really do not think the Titans offense is any good.
44:10No, no. I mean, dude, you're not. I stand by that early stance.
44:14But again, on principle, like this is a smart thing to do.
44:18Yeah, dude, you can sell and buy players at different weeks and different times because again, the price has gone down.
44:24It's not going up. Also, like, man, he could have had a better game if him working here in the end zone.
44:30Like, but yeah, I don't know. Again, I don't think they're any good.
44:34They also do have a little bit of a nice schedule at the end of the season.
44:39I think you could pick between Boston and Tate and be fine.
44:42I wouldn't argue, but I agree with Concepcion as a sell there.
44:46We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for checking this out.
44:50If you missed part one, please go check out the running backs and quarterbacks version of this show that we did as well.
44:57For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
45:00Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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