ECR vs. ADP: Draft Picks Experts Love to Target with Justin Boone (Ep. 2149)

Justin Boone ranks Gibson (referred to as Henderson in the transcript) at RB27 and advises against drafting him at his current price. While there are paths for him to return value, they largely rely on a Rhamondre Stevenson injury. Boone notes that Gibson has not yet proven his ability in pass protection or as a between-the-tackles runner to the coaching staff, making him a risky investment.

Justin Boone ranks Breece Hall as RB14, siding with the ECR over the ADP of 17. Despite a recent preseason injury, Boone notes that Hall is only 25 and has elite upside if healthy. Boone highlights that Hall was the RB6 in fantasy points per game in 2023 and the second-highest scoring back over the final month. While acknowledging concerns about the Jets' offense and the potential for a committee, Boone argues that Hall's role is expected to grow into a workhorse capacity, and the surrounding skill talent (Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell, and potentially a healthy Kylen Granson) could make the offense more competitive.

Andrew Erickson supports the ECR ranking of 14 over the ADP of 17, emphasizing Hall's elite three-down skill set and receiving ability. Erickson notes that Hall is attached to a pocket-passing quarterback in Geno Smith, which should lead to more check-downs and dump-off passes to the running back. Erickson argues that Hall's ceiling is unlocked by his pass-catching, and he remains a high-upside pick despite the injury and the presence of Frank Reich as offensive coordinator.

Erickson suggests that Cade Otton (referred to as Chica Conquist) may be an upgrade over Zach Ertz in the Commanders' offense. Given the team's significant financial investment in him, Erickson expects Otton to command a meaningful target share, potentially benefiting from underneath opportunities if pass protection issues force shorter throws.

Erickson notes that Chuba Hubbard is dealing with a hamstring injury that could linger. If Hubbard attempts to return too quickly to avoid losing his job to Jonathan Brooks, he risks re-injury, which would solidify Brooks' role. However, Justin Boone maintains that once healthy, Hubbard will remain involved in the Panthers' backfield rotation.

Erickson is fading Cortland Sutton, citing his sub-20% target share last year and the addition of Jaylen Waddle to the offense. Erickson also notes that Sutton's yards per route run have declined for three consecutive seasons and that younger players like Pat Bryant are expected to eat into his target and route volume.

Justin Boone labels Cortland Sutton a 'no fly zone' and a boring fantasy pick, arguing that his upside is capped unless injuries occur elsewhere. Boone prefers other receivers in that range, such as Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin, or rookies like Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon.

Justin Boone views DJ Moore as a targetable player who still has gas in the tank, noting his history of 90+ catches in three of his last five seasons and his potential to be a primary playmaker in the Bills' offense. While Boone is hesitant to pay the WR22 ADP price, he considers him a target when he falls toward WR27.

Erickson is optimistic about DJ Moore, noting that he is playing with the best quarterback of his career in Josh Allen. Erickson believes Moore offers an unrecognized floor at his WR32 ECR and projects him to be a top-30 wide receiver.

Justin Boone has moved Emeka Egbuka down to WR22 due to concerns regarding his toe injury. Boone emphasizes that foot and toe injuries are particularly concerning for wide receivers who rely on changing direction, and he fears the potential for aggravation or secondary injuries, despite the optimism from some injury analysts.

Justin Boone has moved Emeka Egbuka down in his rankings due to concerns regarding a specific injury for the receiver.

Erickson is bullish on Isaiah Likely, highlighting his 86% route participation in the preseason and his role as a primary third-down target. Erickson believes Likely has top-five tight end upside and will serve as a key check-down option for the Giants.

Justin Boone has Isaiah Likely ranked as his TE13, noting that he bumped him down slightly due to increased confidence in Malik Nabers' availability. Boone still views Likely as a viable TE1 option alongside Dallas Goedert.

Jonathan Brooks is highly polarizing with an ADP (30-35) significantly higher than his ECR (39). Justin Boone is cautious, citing the Panthers' tough schedule, offensive line injuries, and Chuba Hubbard's continued involvement. While acknowledging the hype surrounding a young, talented back, Boone is not convinced Brooks will be a top-12 or top-15 fantasy back this season and suggests being price-sensitive.

Justin Boone is concerned about Matthew Stafford's outlook, citing his age (38), reliance on touchdown-based production last year, and the risk of the Rams' offense collapsing if key pieces are injured. Boone also notes that the lack of rushing upside makes it difficult for pocket passers to reach elite fantasy status.

Erickson avoids drafting Matthew Stafford entirely, noting that the Rams' improved defense may reduce the need for Stafford to shoulder a massive passing load. He also points out that Stafford's 7.7% touchdown rate from last year is unlikely to be repeated.

Justin Boone ranks Stevenson at RB26 and prefers him over Antonio Gibson (Henderson) because the Patriots' coaching staff and beat writers consistently identify Stevenson as the primary back. While the team may utilize a split backfield, Stevenson is the more valuable asset and is currently cheaper in drafts. Boone notes a potentially slow start due to a tough early schedule against Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville, but maintains that Stevenson is the correct target for fantasy managers.

Justin Boone identifies Stefon Diggs as a targetable player, noting that fantasy managers and ADP sites have been slow to adjust to his value in the Washington offense. Boone believes Diggs is a good player and the team's high-volume passing attack will provide ample opportunity for him to produce.

Justin Boone ranks McLaurin as WR23, noting that the addition of Stefon Diggs creates legitimate target competition. While the Washington offense is expected to be high-volume, Boone suggests bumping McLaurin down slightly. Erickson adds that the injury to offensive tackle Laramie Tunsil could hinder the team's ability to dial up long passing plays, potentially limiting McLaurin's vertical upside.

Andrew Erickson is fading Tyjae Spears relative to his ADP of 24, ranking him lower than the ECR of 20. Erickson asserts that Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear RB1 in the Patriots' backfield and is not going away. He points out that Spears' fantasy production was significantly higher only when Stevenson was sidelined, and that Stevenson was a low-end RB1 in the second half of 2023, ranking first in rushing yards over expectation and fifth in explosive run rate.