2026 NFL Week 1 Betting Predictions | Sharp Picks Before the Market Adjusts (Ep. 2074)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
39 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 2, 2026
Published
Thu, July 2, 2026
23
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron RodgersAlec PierceC.J. StroudCam SimsD'Angelo PondsDak PrescottDaniel JonesDrake LondonGeno SmithGeorge KittleJaquan BriskerJoey Porter Jr.Kirk CousinsKyle Pitts
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
PositiveProjection144:00
Aaron Rodgers is finally starting OTAs from the beginning this year. The source highlights his strong week one track record as a starter: 12-6 overall, 8-3 with Mike McCarthy at the helm, with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, positioning him favorably for the Packers' week one matchup.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
NegativeRole22:02
Dealing with an offseason injury and not likely to see a lot of reps early in training camp; may not hit on deep attempts from Daniel Jones in Week 1 due to Jones's rust coming off Achilles injury.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection28:00
The source expresses concern that Stroud has regressed since his rookie year and cannot be trusted in Week 1 against the Bills; this is a make-or-break year for Stroud with the Texans. However, the source notes Stroud should benefit from an upgraded offensive line and Dave Montgomery's addition to the offense, which provides effective play-action opportunities Stroud has never had before.
Insight pageCam Sims
NegativeRole116:41
The source notes that Cam Sims may take time to get back into game shape after missing a significant portion of the previous season, which could affect his early-season availability and performance for the Giants.
Insight pageD'Angelo Ponds
PositiveRole287:00
The source notes that the Jets drafted D'Angelo Pons with the expectation that he could break the team's interception drought by returning one for a touchdown, positioning him as a potential defensive playmaker in week one. The Jets' historical interception struggles suggest regression toward the mean, and the source indicates the team views Pons as a key piece to capitalize on that expected uptick in turnovers.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveMatchup83:59
Prescott owns the Giants with a 14-3 straight-up record against them and is 10-6 against the spread as a road favorite within the division. The source notes that Dallas is the far superior team and that the line of minus-1.5 is too small given Prescott's dominance over New York.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury22:02
Coming off Achilles injury with no preseason reps expected; likely to be rusty in Week 1 and may not hit on deep attempts to receivers; the source wants to fade the Colts offense in the high-total Colts-Ravens matchup because of Jones's uncertain health status and expected regression after a historic 2025 pace. Jones has literally no idea what type of state he's going to be in because he's not expected to play at all during the preseason.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveMatchup138:40
Drake London will likely be locked up by Joey Porter Jr. in week one against Pittsburgh. With Porter Jr. not allowing a regular season touchdown since week eight of 2023, and the Falcons' receiving options limited with Kyle Pitts being the primary target over the middle, London faces a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh's improved secondary.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection266:00
The source characterizes Geno Smith as 'cooked' heading into week one against Tennessee. Coming off a year where he threw for just over 200 yards per game with a 19-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Smith is in hot water despite his previous breakout season with Seattle.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury20:52
Coming back from injury but not 100% healthy heading into Week 1 against the Rams; the source cites this as a reason to fade the 49ers offense early in the season.
Insight pageJaquan Brisker
PositiveRole135:04
Jaquan Brisker is returning to his hometown to play safety for the Steelers after missing time, strengthening Pittsburgh's secondary heading into week one against Atlanta.
Insight pageJoey Porter Jr.
PositiveRole136:50
Joey Porter Jr. is expected to remain with the Steelers (not sit out) despite seeking a new contract. The source notes that the last time he allowed a regular season touchdown was week eight of 2023, positioning him to lock up Drake London in week one against Atlanta.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeProjection32:00
The source wants to fade Kirk Cousins into oblivion in Week 1 when the Raiders start him instead of their number one overall pick; Cousins led the Falcons to a 34-10 loss against the Dolphins last year, and the source believes the Dolphins are being undervalued as underdogs against a Raiders team starting Cousins.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveRole139:00
Kyle Pitts is identified as the Falcons' primary target over the middle in week one against Pittsburgh, suggesting he will be a focal point of the Atlanta offense in the matchup as Drake London faces lockdown coverage from Joey Porter Jr.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection35:00
The source notes that Kyler Murray traditionally starts seasons hot before Call of Duty comes out, but questions his reliability, calling him a quitter who quit on the Cardinals last year and quits every year when Call of Duty releases; the source is bullish on Murray as a divisional home underdog, but cannot back the Packers with confidence because of Murray's inconsistency.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection32:00
The source notes that Malik Willis has made you pay when fading him in the past; despite the Raiders being favored, Willis may not even play in Week 1 as Kirk Cousins is expected to start instead.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeRole157:20
Michael Penix Jr. is less likely than Tua Tagovailoa to start for the Falcons in week one due to health considerations, though the exact starter remains uncertain heading into the matchup against Pittsburgh.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveRole133:24
The source highlights that the Steelers have improved their wide receiver room by adding Michael Pittman Jr., positioning him as part of a much-improved receiving corps for Pittsburgh in Week 1 against Atlanta.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeRole20:52
Uncertainty about how he will look in the 49ers offense in Week 1; the source cites this as part of the reason to fade the 49ers offense early in the season.
Insight pageNick Chubb
NegativeRole28:00
Last year's Texans running back who did not fit the scheme as well as Dave Montgomery; his presence limited the Texans' ability to use play-action effectively.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveProjection30:00
The source's favorite player prop bet in the Texans-Bills game is Tank Dell over 1.5 receptions; the source is bullish on Dell's return and calls the 1.5 reception line generous, suggesting Dell will easily exceed that target share.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeInjury34:00
Uncertainty about how healthy Tucker Craft will be in his first game for the Packers; cited as one of the question marks about Green Bay heading into Week 1.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeRole28:00
Day three pick thrust into a three-down running back role despite being drafted as a pass-catching back from USC; his poor fit in the role made the Texans offense one-dimensional and put more pressure on CJ Stroud.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:18All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros NFL Podcast.
0:20The regular season gets underway in 70 days from now, but it's never too early to place your bets for week one.
0:27That's right. The boys are back in town giving you the lines that you need to jump on now before they move.
0:33I'm your host, Seth Wilcock. Back with the undertaker himself, Andrew Erickson.
0:36Erickson, great to be chopping it up with you once again.
0:39I know we don't want to rush the rest of summer away, but July 4th weekend almost here.
0:45So, summer pretty much over in my books. So, I think we might as well fast forward, get to football season.
0:51What say you, man? 4th of July marks the start of football season, not the start of summer for you kids out there.
0:57Nah, man, super excited. Excited today because we're talking about week one, right?
1:01We're going to have training camp in July. Week one is going to be sooner here before you even know it.
1:07So, it's been kind of fun to look at some of these lines for these teams.
1:11I can based on no knowledge of these like puff pieces for training camp.
1:15Who's in the best shape of their life? All those types of things.
1:19So, I'm just excited to kind of just talk about some of these matchups here, even though we're, again, only two months
1:25out and we're going to see the football. It really feels like football season is just about here.
1:30I remember as a kid in July, always going down to Steelers training camp in Latrobe, Pennsylvania there.
1:35My grandfather in the driver's seat there, like rocking NFL radio, listening to all the training camp beats from around the league.
1:42So, I'm ready to go. Have you been to Patriots training camp ever in your life?
1:46Yes. I've gone many years when I was younger, when I've been part of Fantasy Pros, I've gone and done some, you know, boots on the ground analysis.
1:54I think, unfortunately though, like a lot of times I've gone to training camp and I've actually had like bad takeaways famously.
2:00So, there's the, I gotta go on a tangent here.
2:03So, because this one tweet got me in so much trouble.
2:06It was like, it was Jalen Polk making like some like, like pretty like mid catch.
2:11You know, like you gotta draft this guy. And that was really based on like how he's being used like throughout the practice.
2:18Like they're really targeting this guy a lot. Obviously, Jalen Polk was a mega bust for the New England Patriots.
2:23Didn't even get through his rookie contract is on the New Orleans Saints right now.
2:27And that tweet like circulated a lot. I was like, God, like it was just like, I was getting ripped to shreds.
2:34However, though, I did go to one of the training camps and that was a year I was really on Hunter Henry as a red zone target.
2:41I think it was Mac Jones rookie year. It was when they signed Johnnie Smith and they signed Hunter Henry.
2:47Johnnie Smith was the guy going first in Fantasy.
2:50And I was like, guys, like Hunter Henry is like the red zone guy here.
2:54And that was based on the practices. So, you win some, you lose some.
2:58But a training camp is always fun. And especially this year, I've already booked my ticket, marked my calendar because the Eagles
3:04are coming to town for joint practices. So I will be there.
3:08Those are really fun. I have been to a joint practice before, too.
3:11It was the Panthers and the Patriots. And it was really cool to see defensive backs and see receivers like DJ Moore at the time.
3:18Robbie Anderson was on Christian McCaffrey. So to kind of see those guys practice players, I'd never seen it because I've obviously only seen Patriots players.
3:26That was also really cool. So that joint practice against the Eagles.
3:29I am giddy for that one. So I'll be there.
3:32Yeah, maybe a little scrapping going on to there.
3:35The joint practices. That's always fun. I remember early in my media days, I was covering the Steelers training camp for my
3:41college newspaper and like Vance McDonald tight end. Oh, yeah.
3:44That was that was the takeaway for me. So I'm guilty of it as well.
3:48But excited to break it all down with you on today's program.
3:51It does look like this. Of course, we're going to break down the ATS totals and Moneyline markets.
3:56And before we do, just a quick shout out to all the beautiful men and women out there taking time across this
4:03busy holiday week to really take us in, whether that's on the Ben Crows YouTube channel or the audio feed.
4:08We see you. We appreciate you. And as always, the easiest freeway to support us.
4:13Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and make sure you subscribe if you're new.
4:19We want to hear from you in the comments below.
4:21What are your favorite week one bets? Let us know.
4:24Let's have that conversation. And Erickson, let's get to our conversation, starting with the early spread bets where you're taking us to
4:30maybe the greatest city in the world, but maybe they don't have the best team in the world out of the gates this week.
4:37I am taking the Dallas Cowboys lane one and a half points on the road against the New York Giants.
4:43This is the Sunday night football matchup, and it's actually a rematch of week 18 from last year where the Dallas Cowboys were going to MetLife.
4:50And at that time, we did not know whether or not Dak Prescott was going to start this game.
4:56He ended up starting and Joe Milton ended up actually playing a lot more in this game.
5:01The Dallas Cowboys defense was obviously in shambles at that point.
5:04Can you guess what the line was for that particular matchup with Dallas week 18 last year when we weren't even sure
5:10who the starting quarterback was going to be for Dallas against the Giants?
5:14I'm going to say bigger than this because I know it's been a long time since the Giants have beat Dallas.
5:20Yes, it is a much bigger line than this one and a half.
5:23Let me take it at four and a half.
5:26Give me a four and a half. Five and a half points.
5:29Okay, okay. So if I was going to lay or the market was saying that, okay, you're going to lay minus five
5:36and a half when we don't even know the quarterback is.
5:39And now it's minus one half with Dak Prescott, who owns the New York Giants.
5:43Like we know this 14-3 straight up against the Giants.
5:46I think that Dak Prescott always been very good, especially on the road.
5:4910-6 against the spread is a road favorite within the division.
5:53Getting back to his career playing the most recent matchup.
5:55So I just think the Dallas Cowboys are the better, far superior team.
5:59I get divisional underdogs, especially at home are always those end up being a lot of good bets.
6:04And actually, that is one of my other bets.
6:07I really like for this particular week one. But the Giants are probably going to be without their best player, Malik Nabers.
6:13He's probably not going to play in this game.
6:16So for me, Dallas, I think their defense is so much better on paper.
6:20After they got Quinn and Williams, I thought they were better last year.
6:23They've won 10 straights as favorites in the division.
6:26Besides, again, last week's Week 18 matchup where, again, Joe Milton played for half that game.
6:30So for me, I, again, it never feels good when you're betting against a home divisional underdog because we know the trends
6:37are really strong for those particular teams. But again, Harbaugh, it's his first game coaching for the New York Giants.
6:42I'm going to take the Dallas Cowboys laying a very small point margin here.
6:46And before that last game we saw between these two where it was a lot of Joe Milton, the last time the Giants had beat the Cowboys 2021.
6:54So it just goes to show here. One and a half just doesn't feel good enough.
6:59Like you said, like no Malik neighbors out there.
7:01And also, like I love Cam Scadaboo. It might take him some time to get back into, you know, game shape after
7:08missing a lot of that last part of the season there.
7:11And there are some new pieces here on defense of the Giants that I think you and I both like.
7:16But at the same time, there are some young guns, right?
7:20We're going to have to see how it all works out.
7:23So I think this is one of the sharpest lines out there right now on the books.
7:28I will certainly be tailing you there. And I'd like to offer one up here in my part of the country here.
7:34Give me a little Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half against the Falcons.
7:38I talked a ton last week, Erickson, about how I'm fading the Falcons from a future perspective, right?
7:43And I'm going to do that into the regular season here because this is one of the saddest QB battles of all
7:49times on the Falcons hands right here. New head coach coming in, James Pierce Jr., their sack leader from a year ago.
7:55We're not sure if he's going to be out there.
7:58Probably won't be. And like meanwhile, I like what the Steelers have done at least from like a one year standpoint here
8:04because the wide receiver room much improved. You add Michael Pittman Jr., you add Jeremy Bernard in the draft as well.
8:10And the secondary also improving. We get back Penn State Nittany Lion, Jaquan Brisker.
8:14He's coming back to his hometown to play safety here in Pittsburgh.
8:18You love that. And let's not forget Joey Porter Jr.
8:21I know there's a guy who obviously wants that new contract.
8:24It's appearing he's not going to sit out here going into training camp.
8:27And the last time he has allowed a regular season touchdown was week eight of 2023.
8:32So I think he's going to lock up Drake London from the start.
8:36And we really want to have to deal with a little bit of Kyle Pitts over the middle, stopping B.
8:41John Robinson at the line of scrimmage. And like also like I think the return game for the Steelers here early in
8:48the season, this might be an X factor. I remember talking to Thor Nystrom on the Fancy Pros NFL draft show with Debro.
8:54And he was all in on this kid, Caden Weijin, that we drafted out of Iowa as a returner, saying he was
9:00one of the best he's seen since Dante Hall.
9:03He's in the black and yellow now. And plus we have Aaron Rodgers, finally starting OOTAs from the very beginning this year.
9:09He has a week one record as a starter, 12-6, 8-3 with Big Mike McCarthy at the helm, 32 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
9:15And the Steelers as a whole in week one over the last decade, 7-2-1, 6-3 at home last year.
9:21We know Lurs fans, they love these 1 p.m.
9:23kickoff games, specifically here early in September. They'll be loud.
9:26And I think the Falcons do come out and struggle in the preseason like we're expecting.
9:31I wouldn't be surprised if this number moves past that key number at 2-1-2, well past the field goal.
9:36So this game is in Pittsburgh, correct? Correct. Yeah, absolutely.
9:39So you don't need to pull my arm to bet against a Falcons team on the road, right?
9:44As a dome team where they need pristine conditions, especially if it's Tua as the quarterback.
9:49Is it Michael Penix Jr.? I think it's probably more likely to be Tua because he'll probably be the healthier quarterback at that point.
9:56But wasn't it that Monday night game where the Dolphins played the Steelers and it was an absolute train wreck for Miami's offense?
10:02Was that like the last game that Tua started?
10:05I'm trying to see if I remember this correctly.
10:07But I think that the side here is probably with the Steelers.
10:11And to make another argument for your case to back Steelers, so when you look at week one, retread head coaches.
10:17So like a Mike McCarthy, someone who's been a head coach before but not a rookie.
10:21Again, first time with a new team but not a rookie head coach per se.
10:25Have been more proficient covering the spreads at home since 2020.
10:29A slightly positive against the spread record at 53%.
10:31And that's not the same when they're on the road or a neutral matchup.
10:35So I know that doesn't work in my argument against fading the Giants, who also have a retread quarterback.
10:40That's also a divisional game, so things can kind of get wonky.
10:44But in a non-conference game, I think it's a situation where do the Steelers lay the hammer on the Atlanta Falcons?
10:50And this is like, again, bringing back to what happened last year, because I think it provides a cool insight about how the market views these teams.
10:57What do you think the line was last year, week one, when the Dolphins played the Colts?
11:02Oh, Dolphins against the Colts. And it was also on the road, and Tua was the starter.
11:07And if you remember, the Colts destroyed the Miami Dolphins in that game.
11:11Were the Dolphins favored in that matchup? It was like a pick-em.
11:14Like, it was like really close. And obviously, that was not the case whatsoever.
11:18Again, I think I remember this correctly, but Miami got absolutely shellacked by the Indianapolis Colts.
11:23And maybe that's something you see similar here. So maybe some old spread, some teasers.
11:27Again, I don't know how many games the Pittsburgh Sears are going to win this year, but this one definitely looks like
11:33one that they definitely need to win. Yeah, hopefully for my case and betters alike, they do.
11:38And speaking of those retread head coaches, you're certainly backing one here down in the Music City.
11:43Yep. So this one, the trend does actually work in my favor with the Tennessee Titans laying two and a half points
11:49at home against the New York Jets. Right. Right.
11:52You can't ask for a better script for Robert Sala in his home opener against his old team, man.
11:57I like this guy's going to be super motivated.
12:00Again, every NFL coach is motivated to win every single game.
12:03But come on, man. We know that he was head coach of the Jets.
12:07And for the most part, he was put in situations where he had terrible quarterbacks.
12:11He had to play terrible quarterbacks. And anytime he had Rodgers, he gets hurt.
12:15Never put in a situation where his defense could do enough.
12:18And those defenses he had in New York were borderline elite, where he was squeaking out seven win seasons somehow.
12:24And the biggest difference, Robert Sala last year, and even as a head coach for the New York Jets, the guy has
12:30shown a proven track record of he gets the most out of his personnel.
12:34And last year, the 49ers had nobody left. And yet this defense was still hanging in games, helping the 49ers win in close contests.
12:41So I think Sala does that with his personal getting the most out of it.
12:45Whereas Aaron Glenn basically showed the complete opposite of that last year.
12:49And I'm definitely not the lowest. Again, a lot of shows that we've done on the betting pros feed or the fantasy
12:55pros feed, not the lowest on Aaron Glenn. But in this particular matchup, like I definitely want to be on the Titans
13:01side of Geno Smith playing on the road. Give me the Tennessee Titans.
13:05Cam Ward with Brian Dayball. I think that we can start this season on a solid foot.
13:10And I think it happens in Nashville in week one.
13:12So I will take the Titans laying the points.
13:15Again, two teams last year that were both atrocious against the spread.
13:18I guess I just trust Robert Sala in this defense to take care of business, even though this is probably going to be a lower scoring game.
13:26I think that's something that you have a play on as well.
13:29I'm going to side with the home team here.
13:32Wayne, less than a field goal. I certainly agree with you there.
13:35And I'll add some more thoughts to this game when we get into those total bets.
13:40But first, a real quick reminder that when you're betting NFL futures or even game lines, the numbers you get is what matters here, folks.
13:47And that's why you should absolutely download the free betting pros app today.
13:51You can compare odds, track your bets, follow expert picks, monitor line movement, and keep your futures cards all organized all season long.
13:57So if you're betting a team to make the playoffs, miss the playoffs, win in division, or chase that number one seed,
14:04or you're putting some early week one bets down like we are today, make sure you're tracking the market and getting the
14:10best number available by downloading the betting pros app today.
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15:20All right, Erickson, and we're on to the early total bets where I'm going right back to that same game that you
15:26just alluded to, the New York Jets versus the Tennessee Titans.
15:29I'm going under 39.5 points, and I agree that I think the Titans are going to win this game, but I don't
15:35think we should lose sight of the fact that these teams both bottom four in yards per game and scoring a year ago.
15:42The Titans, 16.7 points per game, and then the Jets, 17.6 points per game.
15:46I like the Jets in what they did from a rebuilding standpoint.
15:49They go out, they get Omar Cooper Jr., they get Kenyon Sadiq, but I think it's tough to ask for them to be difference makers in week one.
15:57Plus, Geno Smith, a little bit in hot water right now.
16:00Now, it's all, you know, guns are pointing that he will be under center in week one here, but even if he
16:07is, like, I think this guy's cooked anyways, Erickson, honestly.
16:09And I've been the Geno guy when he went out and had the breakout season for the Seahawks, getting that start.
16:15I was drafting him everywhere in super flex, Scott Fishbowl.
16:18He carried me to some deep runs there, but I just think this is the year to fade him coming off a
16:25year where he threw for just over 200 yards per game, 19 to 17 touchdown to interception ratio.
16:30And, like, I'm a fan of what the Titans did.
16:32They brought in Dable to call plays. Carnell Tate, Wandale Robinson, they joined this wide receiver core.
16:37I still think, though, it might take a little bit for Cam Moore to go out there and adjust this new system.
16:44I don't think he's going to drop a 30-burger right away, especially against a Jets defense that has had some time to prepare for him.
16:51So, everywhere else, I'm seeing this line at 38.5 if you want to take the under at minus 110.
16:56I shopped that around, though. You can find that at one book and get that extra point, 39.5.
17:01I'm going to take that now while I still have a chance because I think this number isn't long for the books.
17:07These two defenses have been totally revamped. So, I agree with you.
17:11I think that this is going to be a defensive slugfest and probably comes down to turnovers, right?
17:16The Jets eventually are going to—look, the Jets, by just sheer regression, are going to get more interceptions this year, even if
17:22it doesn't mean that they're going to get— They went out and got D'Angelo Pons in the draft because, like, hey, if
17:28someone's going to break this interception streak that we don't have, it's going to be D'Angelo Pons taking one to the house.
17:35So, if anything, that's how this beats you, is you get—you're getting, like, oh, oh, oh.
17:39They get, like, three pick sixes and Cam Ward is just, like, playing like a disaster.
17:44That's how this bet fails. But, again, that's something that process-wise you were correct, but sometimes you just get bad beats when
17:50guys—short fields, turnovers cause a lot of issues. Maybe some defensive anytime touchdowns on the cards for this game as well.
17:56That's how you hedge it. That's how you hedge the play.
17:59Exactly. Erickson, I'm going to turn it over to you.
18:02You, of course, are the undertaker. We've already laid out one under today, and I think you have a couple more for the fine people out there.
18:10Imagine not taking the under down under with the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
18:14Guys, under 49.5 points. This is a special moment for us.
18:18We have a game down under, and people want to bet the over when the total's at 49.5 points.
18:23It's a big number for week one, yeah. This is bonkers to me.
18:27You look at all of the travel implications. Flying across the world to Melbourne, Australia for week one.
18:32We don't know exactly how these guys are going to respond to this because none of them have ever done it before.
18:38So having the confidence that, okay, yeah, this is going to be an offensive juggernaut performance, I think that this is one
18:44of the easiest bets that you can make right now.
18:47Typically, the under has been more profitable with international games in general anyway.
18:51On average between 2007-2024, under 44 points per game per international games.
18:54Oh, wow. I know in recent years, especially even last year, the overs have been hitting at a higher rate, but that has also come with adjustments.
19:02Like the numbers have been lower because of the trend of, oh, usually unders are better to kind of bet blindly when it comes to international games.
19:10Where this number is already really high at 49.5 points.
19:12This is one of the highest totals in the week one slate.
19:16These two defenses were top 15 in scoring last season.
19:19And they've gotten both better. The 49ers defense is no longer completely gutted by injuries.
19:23Yeah, they're healthy to start. So they actually have all their guys.
19:26And the Rams, oh, maybe they acquired this guy.
19:29Maybe you've heard of him, Miles Garrett. You know, he's pretty good.
19:32Like Trent McDuffie, like they totally revamped their secondary.
19:35They have Miles Garrett. So to me, it's fade offense down under the 49ers usually are overrated on the road anyway, especially
19:41when they're underdogs two and six against the spread.
19:44So I think maybe their offense doesn't perform up to their usual standard here in week one against a defense that, hey,
19:50these teams are familiar with each other. They're divisional rivals.
19:53Only two of the last five matchups between the Rams and 49ers have actually gone over 49 and a half points.
19:59So for me, dude, I get that. It's a bit taking the under land down under yada, yada, yada.
20:04But I just think that this makes so much sense on paper.
20:08So this one, again, lock of the week, best bet Rams 49ers under 49 and a half points for week one.
20:14Yeah, I love it, man. That Friday night is going to be a lot of fun.
20:18I know we're going to have some fun college football games on the slate as well.
20:23So don't text me. Don't beat me. You know, you can't reach me.
20:26I don't really care. I'm going to be watching football there on a Friday.
20:30Sometimes or especially early when there's not maybe some good Friday night college football games on.
20:35And of course, usually no NFL games. I like to go down to like the local high school game.
20:40Check out how the team's doing. Not this year.
20:43I'll catch you in week three or four. Yeah.
20:45The golden tide. If you're doing good in the season, I won't know it.
20:49But even like George Kittle, like he's coming back.
20:52He's not 100% healthy. Most likely. We don't know how Mike Evans looks in this offense right off the rip as well.
20:58Ricky Pierce all kind of getting back. So like in general, I kind of want to fade the 49ers in the spot.
21:04I most thought about maybe laying a Rams money line or just a Rams ATS play.
21:09But I think this is actually the safer play with such a high total for week one in particularly.
21:14And also over in those international waters. So one more under for you, Erickson, which I think this is another one.
21:20Again, I'm not trying to always back you, but I really feel like you came with some sharp plays, including this one.
21:2712 unders hit last year in week one. So if you're going to be on the right side of history, I think that's the approach to look for.
21:35And I think it's no it's not by accident that we came to the table with three unders as our recommended plays when it comes to the totals.
21:42And generally week one, 55% hit rate towards the under since 2005.
21:46So I think that looking for unders is the right approach here.
21:49Colts Ravens high total at 49 and a half points.
21:52This game is being played in Indianapolis. So that is always scary when you're playing in a dome where, you know, you're
21:58going to get pristine conditions for the passing game to light up opposing defenses.
22:02But Daniel Jones, we have literally no idea what type of state he's going to be in, because I imagine he's not
22:09going to play at all during the preseason. And I think that means he might come up a little bit rusty, maybe
22:15not hitting on all of his deep attempts to players like an Alec Pierce.
22:19I think that the Ravens defense is going to be improved.
22:22They can't be more injured than they were last year, bringing in Jesse Minter as the new head coach.
22:27I think you're going to see improvements from their side of the football.
22:31And it's new offense from Lamar Jackson and Declan Doyle, the new officer for the Baltimore Ravens.
22:36So I just think that this matchup again, whether it's Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor and all these explosive playmakers, they flowers.
22:43Yes. Can this one beat me? Of course. But I just think looking at the optics of how high the number is
22:49already at 49 and a half points. And the fact that and this actually works against me is Minter got beat pretty
22:55badly last year by these Colts led by Shane Steichen 38 to 24.
22:59That was actually the most points the Chargers allowed.
23:02I was assuming he's going to have to come to the table with a counterpunch this time around, especially with the Colts just not operating at 100%.
23:09So for me, it's more of just a I want to fade Daniel Jones in this offense coming off the Achilles injury.
23:16We knew that their offense was going to regress after it was on a historic pace last year.
23:21And even towards the end, before Daniel Jones officially was ruled out with his injuries, we start to see a little fall off in that Colts offensive efficiency.
23:29So for me, 49 and a half points too big of a number for some of the reasons I've laid out.
23:35Yeah, I mean, we usually see offenses start slow in the NFL and the defenses kind of start fast and they have
23:41to play catch up a little bit. You know, we're all screaming from a fancy standpoint.
23:45Why is this player getting me no points? And I think this is a great case of this where it just seemed
23:52like way too high of a number. I was surprised by the Rams number.
23:56I was surprised by this one, especially because like this traditionally, I know we have a new OC out there in Baltimore,
24:02but these are two run heavy teams, right? You have Derek Henry, you have JT in the backfields.
24:07Alec Pierce not going to likely be, you know, seeing a lot of reps here early in training camp, at least as
24:13he continues to recover from his offseason injury there.
24:16And then like the Ravens have added some nice pieces here on offense, but no Isaiah likely.
24:21And also like why I like Elijah Surratt and the other pieces they've added here.
24:25Like it just feels like, again, I'm not going to count on rookies to break out in week one, even as talented
24:31as what the Ravens have thrown out there. So definitely like that play as well.
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26:40Andrew Erickson, we're on to the early Moneyline Bet.
26:43Where are you going in this market? Houston Texans playing host to the Buffalo Bills.
26:47Houston has given the Bills fits in their last two matchups.
26:50We had that Thursday night game in 2025 where Josh Allen looked all out of sorts.
26:54Two road losses against this defense. Close games, three and four point margins.
26:58You home underdogs. That's a trend that you typically like to bet on.
27:02Elite defense with the Houston Texans. And I think CJ Stroud is kind of in for a bounce back year.
27:08Second year in Nick Caley's offense. He should be experiencing a little bit of an upgrade with this offensive line.
27:13And Buffalo has a new defensive coordinator. So is their defense as elite out of the gates?
27:18Maybe some more miscommunications on their end. And so for me, never feels great fading Josh Allen in any capacity.
27:24But given the fact that the Houston Texans are a playoff team, a Super Bowl contender, if CJ Stroud can get back
27:30to his rookie year as home underdogs, minus 104 for the Moneyline.
27:33Look, why should the Bills be favored when Houston has beat them both times the last two times they've played?
27:39That's my main argument. I think that's why Houston would be my player.
27:43Yeah, I think it's just the CJ Stroud factor, right?
27:46And that's why, honestly, I kind of looked at the other side of this game and, hey, can I get invested with the Bills?
27:52And then I saw those recent performances against the Texans.
27:55And like, I probably can't. Also, Josh Allen's been a little sluggish sometimes to start the season.
28:00He makes some of those like, hey, gotta have it throws in the first quarter.
28:04They're just like, what are you doing, bro? But I can't get invested with this game.
28:09I do think, you know, maybe an opportunity to bet in under.
28:12But I just can't trust CJ Stroud anymore, dude.
28:15And I've been on this CJ Stroud train. I thought he should have been the number one overall pick years ago coming out of Ohio State.
28:22I love what this kid did out there for the Buckeyes.
28:25But and even as a rookie, but it seems like since then, he's just regressed.
28:30What do you think the keys are to CJ Stroud kind of, you know, putting another step forward and getting at least
28:36back to that rookie year type of level here in 2026?
28:39I think part of is just not putting as much on his shoulders or feeling like I have to win the game for our team to win.
28:47You don't need to do that, dude, because you have an elite defense on the other side of the field.
28:52So I think that if he takes care of the football, which he's always been pretty good at, aside from the last
28:59two playoff games he played, which was obviously horrible, better protection up front, a competent run game, something that he has never had.
29:05I would love to see just it's like watch CJ Stroud have a 15th ranked run game and watch what happens.
29:11Right. The fact that he was able to use play action effectively, bringing Dave Montgomery, who fits the scheme very, very well
29:17that they're trying to install here with Nick Kaley.
29:20Last year, they didn't have that because it was Nick Chubb and Woody Marks, who Marks was just so out of position last year.
29:27He was drafted out of USC as a pass catching back.
29:30And then they immediately had to thrust him into, okay, you're now our three down running back, which as a day three
29:36pick, just asking too much of him. And that put the offense behind the eight ball, making them very one dimensional.
29:42We're putting more on CJ Stroud's plate. So that's kind of how I envision it.
29:46And I think that right now it's no longer CJ Stroud doing these press conferences and shows with Micah Parsons.
29:52It's not, you got to be dialed in because if you lay another egg, you're not going to get extended by the Texans, right?
29:59They didn't, they haven't extended you for a reason yet.
30:02This is your prove it year. It's your make or break year.
30:05And to beat a Superbowl contending Buffalo bills team that puts you on the right path.
30:10My favorite bet in that game is going to be a player prop.
30:13And I'm definitely, if it's one and a half receptions for tank Dell, give me the over baby.
30:18The tanks back in town. That's what I'm, I'm taking generous at one and a half, man.
30:23I feel like it's going to be, will they catch a pass?
30:27If it's a half, that is the ladder of the week.
30:30Call Welsh right now, brother fired up. I'm telling you what tank Dell is back.
30:34Uh, Erickson every year, it feels like this week one slate gives us just one absolute stinker of a game.
30:40Most people don't like to watch that or it's like the little, you know, the little square in there, you know, four
30:46banger that are running on YouTube TV there. I think you will be watching this game because you're betting on it.
30:52The dolphins are going to beat the Raiders in week one.
30:55This is so typical week one nonsense. Everybody, the dolphins are the worst team in the NFL.
31:00They're never going to win a game. Malik Willis can't do anything.
31:03Whereas the Raiders have generally high expectations. I think, cause they have Jente, they have Bowers, have Clint Kubiak.
31:09They got Mendoza. Well, spoiler for you folks. Mendoza may not even play in this game.
31:13He probably won't. So if I get up, we can only fade Kirk cousins in games that he starts.
31:19This is a time we need to cherish by fading Kirk cousins into oblivion.
31:23Two rookie head coaches are going head to head in this matchup.
31:26So we don't know exactly from a standpoint of like, Hey, this is all new to them.
31:31Like how are they going to control the environment?
31:33How they control their roster. But what I do know is I want to fade Kirk cousins into oblivion.
31:39That's how I want to approach this last year.
31:41This Miami dolphins team. That was terrible. 2025 killed a Kirk cousins led Falcons team.
31:4634 to 10. Oh, wow. I forgot about that match.
31:49So the fact that the dolphins are basically being written off by a team that I don't think is really that good.
31:55And they're not going to be starting their number one overall pick and they're starting Kirk cousins instead.
32:00I think that this one for me is yes.
32:02Give me the Miami dolphins to win outright. I think that the Raiders are favored because the games in Las Vegas and
32:09I don't know how hyped up the Raiders fans are going to be when the guy they drafted number one overall is on the bench.
32:16Yeah, it's a very, very good point. And I feel like, you know, Malik Willis last year and in years previous, I tried to fade this guy.
32:23Dude, he makes you pay, man. He does. He does.
32:26So, so, so it's not a bad move here.
32:29Plus one 76. I think it's one of the more generous and like approachable money lines out there for an underdog on that week one slate.
32:36I don't hate it there. I don't hate taking the dolphins with the points too.
32:41I think that's a fine play. So different ways I think to get invested here.
32:45You know, the receiving core ain't great, but you got Devon H.
32:48One of the most electric running backs in that backfield, hopefully making some noise.
32:52I will say too, going back to some of the trends in week one, rookie head coaches have not been good at covering the spreads at home.
33:00Last decade, 46% against the spread. At home. So overvalued in my opinion.
33:04Well, does Jeff Halfley count as a first time head coach?
33:07Because, you know, he has all the Boston college coaching experience, right?
33:10From his days back up there, up in your neck of the woods.
33:14But aside from that, I mean, I guess he would also be a first time head coach.
33:19So you got a little first timer versus first timer here, huh?
33:22Yeah, but this trend specifically was the home team, right?
33:25So, okay. Okay. Okay. All right. I know you're going to hate this one.
33:29You have some gumption with this final one. Take us home with your final money line play for week one on the early slate.
33:36Look, we talked about it earlier. I am fading the divisional home underdogs with the New York Giants.
33:41I will not fade both divisional home underdogs in week one because we know that one of these teams is going to be upset.
33:48So we'll know because the Vikings and Packers play first.
33:50So I'll immediately know if this doesn't hit, which one is going to come to fruition in Sunday night football.
33:56But yeah, man, the Packers did not win a single game last year after losing Michael Parsons.
34:01That in itself realizes for me that the Vikings are being undervalued here.
34:05I get that. We don't even know who their quarterback is, who this quarterback is going to be, but this Vikings defense
34:11is nasty, especially when they play at home. They've won nine of the last 13 home games, four and two against the spread in the division last season.
34:19They were eight, nine against the spread last year.
34:21Green Bay was four and six against the spread on the road.
34:25Green Bay was not a profitable team. It was a team that you want to fade when they went on the road.
34:31Seven and nine is a favorite. So even when the expectation was Green Bay is going to win these games, they weren't
34:37even covering the spread half the time. Oh, and six against the spread in their last six games.
34:42Again, attributing to the loss of Micah Parsons. We don't know how healthy Tucker Craft is going to be playing in his first game.
34:49So just too many question marks about the Green Bay Packers.
34:52Both teams have a chance to win in this matchup.
34:55And I understand if you want to fake Kyler Murray, but guys, the one time that Kyler Murray is good is to
35:01start the year before Call of Duty even comes out, right?
35:05Kyler Murray has traditionally been a player that has started out seasons really, really hot.
35:09So for me, divisional home underdog, that's usually a bet you want to make anyway.
35:13Give me the Vikings on the money line to upset the Green Bay Packers at home.
35:18I get it. And, you know, like, you know, we're seeing, you know, former NFL reporters out there in the streets calling Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks trash.
35:25And I don't think Kyler Murray is any better than J.J.
35:28McCarthy at this point is true. I really don't.
35:31Maybe from an optic standpoint and maybe just from a veteran leading the offense.
35:35But I don't know, man. I think you get down early.
35:38Kyler Murray is kind of a quitter to me.
35:40I think he quit on the Cardinals last year and then quits every year when Cod comes out.
35:45So, like, I just can't back them with confidence.
35:48I understand, though. Like, and even this was another play I was thinking about going the opposite way of you.
35:54Can I get invested with the Packers from an ATS or a money line perspective?
35:58I can't personally just because the Vikings have actually had their number pretty well over the past couple of seasons here with Jordan Love under center.
36:05So it's not a bad play. Those trends and some of the other trends that you talked about, too, do kind of
36:12point in a good direction towards laying some money here at the Vikings.
36:15So I like the approach. I just don't have the stomach for it, my friend.
36:20But I appreciate all the great insight that you brought for us today here right on the Betting Pros NFL podcast.
36:26Let us know your favorite NFL futures below. We want to hear from you or any week one place as well.
36:32And also be sure to give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it.
36:36And don't forget, subscribe right now if you're new on Betting Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed.
36:41And don't forget, download that free Betting Pros app today for Andrew Erickson.
36:45I'm Seth Wilcock. Happy Fourth of July, y'all. Thanks for watching.
36:48Take care. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
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