NFL Pro Week 6 Preview

Rodgers has three straight games with three touchdowns, though much of that production is driven by his receivers being so good after the catch; he had 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions last week with just 4.1 air yards per attempt (his lowest single-game average this season), showing he's relying on playmakers to create after catch.

The source has faith in Ben Johnson's ability to manage the Bears offense and game plan, particularly with Caleb Williams as his quarterback. Johnson's success depends on having a balanced offense that can run the ball effectively; when the Bears can establish the run game (as they did against Carolina in week one), the offense is more effective. Against Atlanta, which has been great at defending the run, Johnson will need Caleb to be in the game to take pressure off the run game and allow for a more balanced approach.

Robinson gets a lot of rushing yards over expected because he breaks tackles, contributing to his team's first-place ranking in rush yards over expected through five weeks.

Bowers is the only player to rank in the top five in yards per route run from both the slot (3.2, fifth) and out wide (3.9, fourth), essentially functioning as a receiver rather than a traditional tight end. He is arguably the most effective receiver in the league so far this year and has been able to carry the load for the Raiders passing game; the source projects he will have the highest contract of the 2024 draft class and could make a strong case for a lucrative second contract given his utilization and the rising cap for receivers.

Purdy has played fantastic football all year long; he did get picked off once last week by Mike McDonald's Palms call with Nehemiah Pritchett, but other than that played a really efficient game.

Young is top 5 if not top 3 in passing yards, completion percentage above expected, and EPA per dropback all against zone coverage; he is playing like an assassin this year and is playing with such confidence that it's hard to bet against him.

Irving had crazy runs in Tampa's win over Dallas last week; without those explosive runs from Irving, Tampa might not have even won that game against a Cowboys team that played horribly.

CJ Stroud has been great this year and spreads the ball around so much in the Texans offense that even if cornerback Travis Hunter has a great day against one receiver, there are enough targets and weapons for Stroud to still have a good day through the air. The source notes that Stroud's lack of a run game hasn't necessarily affected him much—he's been great this year despite Houston's inability to run the ball effectively.

The source believes Caleb Williams will play this week against Atlanta based on the pregame workout he did, where the Bears appeared close to letting him go but wanted to be cautious to ensure no complications. The difference in quarterback play between Caleb Williams and Michael Penix is big enough that the source believes the Bears are going to win this game, though not with high confidence. Caleb's presence can affect the run game for Chicago—when Caleb plays, the offense is more balanced and can establish the run game better, as evidenced by the Carolina game in week one where Caleb was great and the run game was dominant.

McMillan (D.J. Moore) is playing more than fantastic and has been unbelievable, especially now that he's getting more reps in the slot where he is just eating people alive.

Washington is a woolly mammoth at tight end for Pittsburgh; you give him the ball and let him rumble because he's just impossible to bring down by himself, making him a key part of the Steelers' formula where Rodgers doesn't have to make crazy throws.

Denzel Boston has been awesome for the Cleveland Browns; the source notes that the Browns have been very good at getting yards after the catch, and Boston is part of that young talent that has played really well this year.

Deshaun Watson was pressured on 26 of his 44 dropbacks against the Jets last week, which is almost a 60% pressure rate and the second highest pressure rate Watson has faced in a single game since 2018. This was the most pressure an Aaron Glenn team has generated since he took over for the New York Jets. The Ravens' pass rush, while not the best it's been over the last half decade, can still rattle Watson and the Browns offense, especially if the Ravens' offense is playing at a high level.

Jalen Hurts is still doing a nice job of avoiding the big negatives and escaping pressure when it's in the pocket versus an offensive line that's not ideal or not typical of a Philly offensive line over the last half decade. The Eagles can throw it deep, especially outside the numbers because Hurts is good at that. However, the source notes they don't do these things consistently this year—even though they're good at it, they don't do them consistently.

Hurts is doing a nice job avoiding big negatives and escaping pressure against a non-ideal offensive line; the Eagles can throw it deep, especially outside the numbers where Hurts is good, but they don't execute these things consistently this year despite being capable of them.

James Cook has been a victim of the league-wide forced fumble trend, losing the ball multiple times in recent games. The source highlights Cook as an example of ball security issues, noting that he had his second fumble of a particular night forced by Nate Landman. The source states: 'Back to Cook. And this time, ball comes out! His second fumble of the night! Landman forced it and it's another fumble for James Cook.' This reflects Cook's vulnerability to the coordinated defensive emphasis on punch-out techniques.

Daniels was excellent as a scrambler when he was back in the game against Seattle; the Commanders saw more explosive plays when Jaden was in, though the 49ers have the linebackers to handle his scrambling ability.

Warren has been dominant in space this year; nobody has been able to do anything about Jalen Warren in space so far this season, making him a major concern for Tampa Bay's defense.

Love has struggled against the Minnesota Vikings' defense (which features Mike Pettin's influence from 2023-2025) with 7.2 yards per attempt, 60.6 completion percentage, negative 3.9 completion percentage over expected, and negative EPA per drop back since 2023. The source notes that Pettin, now hired by the Cowboys, was an assistant head coach and outside linebackers coach for Minnesota during Love's tenure as starter.

Against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores since 2023, Love has posted 7.2 yards per attempt, 60.6% completion percentage, negative 3.9 completion percentage over expected, and negative EPA per drop back; versus all other defenses in the same span, he averages 7.6 yards per attempt, 64.6% completion, positive completion percentage over expected, and positive EPA per drop back. Flores' Vikings have used double-mugged looks (linebackers walked up to line of scrimmage) on 12.7% of plays overall and 25.4% on third down—both first in NFL—and specifically against the Packers 28.8% versus 24.9% against all other teams. On deep ball attempts against Flores, Love has a 33.3% success rate versus 38.6% against all other coordinators despite similar deep rate percentages (13.6% vs. 13.1%). In 2024 against the Vikings with Mike Pettin as outside linebackers coach, Love threw three interceptions in a single game—two from double-mugged looks and another incomplete pass that could have been intercepted from a double-mugged pressure; this is one of only two times Love has thrown three interceptions in a single game in his career.

Love threw it all over the yard in the Packers' recent victory over the Chicago Bears, especially deep down the field, showing his ability to attack vertically.

Allen leads the league in scramble rushing yards at 202 through five weeks and ranks top six in scramble rush yards in every season since joining the league; he had 9 scrambles in 5 quarters against the Rams and is one of the best scrambling quarterbacks ever, comparable to Steve Young and Michael Vick. The source notes his ability to break games wide open when nothing is open downfield, turning missed tackles into 10-30 yard gains.

Allen has a 105.7 passer rating against cover three this year with 8.5 yards per attempt and 5.2% completion percentage over expected; he's very efficient against this coverage and has a bunch of targets that are really good at finding soft spots in the zone, especially against cover three.

Allen got 120 yards rushing on Monday night against the Rams because they were bad at rush lane discipline, giving him seams to step up through the front door.

Herbert has looked unfocused and is throwing the easiest interceptions of his entire career; even for people who criticize him at the highest level, the interceptions he's throwing this year are totally different and at a different level than anything he has attempted before—it's like he's just not seeing defenders.

Walker gets a lot of rushing yards over expected because he breaks tackles, contributing to his team's strong rushing performance.

When comparing top-line quarterback play, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders are not at the same level as Josh Allen and the Bills; a couple weeks ago the gap seemed fairly close, but after last week it's less so.

Kyle Pitts (referred to as 'Bichon' in the transcript) is incredible and a key part of the Falcons offense. In the overtime loss to Baltimore, Pitts was matched up in space against 40-year-old Calais Campbell on a crucial third-and-five play that could have clinched the game, but Penix missed the throw. Pitts remains a consistent weapon for Atlanta.

The Vikings offense is struggling with explosiveness despite a 5-0 record, and Kyler Murray's role is constrained by the lack of run-game success and the team's reluctance to attack over the middle of the field. The source notes that Murray is not the tallest quarterback in the league, so the offensive line must be manipulated at times to enable him to attack over the middle with regularity. The Vikings have only an 11.1% explosive play rate (bottom 10 in NFL), 7.1% explosive designed run rate (ninth lowest), and only 10% intermediate in-breaker target rate (lowest in entire league). The source states: 'Kyler's not the tallest quarterback in the league. And, so, you kind of have to manipulate the offensive line a little bit at times in order for him to want to attack over the middle of the field with regularity.' However, the source also notes that Murray had 'a really nice game' last week and that the offense in its current form should be enough for the Vikings to make the postseason.

As of the time of this broadcast, it is unclear whether Lamar Jackson will be back for the Ravens' game against Cleveland; the source notes that whether it's Huntley or Lamar at quarterback for Baltimore, they have confidence in the Ravens' ability to execute the offense because they are still the number one offense in the entire league in terms of success rate, even after starting Snoop against a good Falcons defense.

Nabers has been great when healthy but suffered a major injury that has limited his availability; the source notes he is part of a disappointing 2024 wide receiver class despite his talent.

Mark Andrews' fumble is cited as an example of the league-wide emphasis on forced fumbles through coordinated defensive technique. The source notes that Andrews' fumble demonstrates how defenders are being taught to maintain fundamental form while wrapping up ball carriers and simultaneously attempting to punch the ball out. The source states: 'The Mark Andrews fumble is a great example where he's coming in to make the tackle. You could tell he's not abandoning his form.' This reflects the evolution of defensive technique toward integrated punch-out methodology.

Harrison Jr. was traded by the Cardinals within his first three years, making him only the third top-five pick to be traded within his first three years in the last 17 years—a very rare occurrence. He exemplifies the disappointing 2024 wide receiver draft class.

The Texans traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., and while the source notes this isn't the biggest factor in their matchup against Jacksonville, Harrison Jr. is potentially positioned as the new X receiver for Houston, with Nico Collins being used as a moving chess piece in the offense.

There is a really interesting dichotomy between pressured and unpressured Michael Penix: when Penix is not pressured, he was top two in EPA per dropback; when he is pressured, he is dead last. Against Chicago, the Bears pass rush isn't actually that great, and with Dio injured, it won't be great this week either, so if Penix is kept clean, the Falcons could have a lot of success offensively. However, under pressure, Penix struggles significantly—last week against Baltimore he was 2 of 9 for 3.6 yards per attempt.

Evans has just been a godsend for the 49ers this year, providing crucial support to their offense.

In the Houston-Jacksonville divisional matchup, even if Travis Hunter has a great day against Nico Collins, CJ Stroud spreads the ball around so much in the Texans offense and there are other weapons on the field, so Stroud can still have a good day through the air. The source notes that injecting Marvin Harrison Jr. into the team potentially makes him the new X receiver, allowing Nico to be used as a moving chess piece.

The source expresses high conviction that Travis Hunter's trade value is justified despite the Jaguars giving up significant draft capital (number 5 to number 2, plus second rounder 36, 126 overall this year, and next year's first round pick). the source notes Hunter is being deployed primarily as a corner with moonlighting at wide receiver—the preferred usage—and is playing with noticeably higher confidence at corner compared to last season after adding weight and muscle. He looks more explosive despite the higher weight, is being involved in the passing game with quick-hitting opportunities for yards after catch, and the source states: 'I'm having to hold myself back from how excited I am about the future of Travis Hunter because the confidence level that he is playing with at corner right now is a leap from what it was the previous season.' the source concludes: 'The arrow is only looking very, very high up for Hunter and how they're using him.'

Travis Hunter has played really, really well at corner so far this year; even if he's matched up on Nico Collins, CJ Stroud spreads the ball around so much that there are other weapons on the field where Stroud can still have a good day through the air.

Tyler Huntley did exactly what a backup quarterback is supposed to do in the second half and overtime against Atlanta: he was 13 of 14, didn't even attempt to pass over 20 yards, and only completed two passes over 10 yards. He used every blade of grass under 10 yards, including the short middle of the field, which is exactly how a point guard style offense should be executed. The Ravens' offense remains the number one offense in the entire league in terms of success rate, and Huntley's execution supports that.

Worthy has negative 382 receiving yards over expected since the start of 2024, the fewest in the NFL, indicating significant underperformance relative to expectations for the 2024 wide receiver class.