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The Special Teams Revolution + Week 4's Biggest Matchups | NFL Pro

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 1, 2026
Published
Thu, October 1, 2026
32
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Matthew StaffordBrock BowersBrock PurdyDrake MayeJaxon Smith-NjigbaJustin HerbertKenneth Walker IIIPuka NacuaBaker MayfieldBijan RobinsonBo NixBryce YoungC.J. StroudDavante Adams
Player analysis

Player insights

32

Baker Mayfield

NegativeInjury70:20

Baker Mayfield is confirmed to be out, leading to potential uncertainty for the Buccaneers' offense.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection75:17

Bijan Robinson is playing amazingly and is considered an MVP candidate by the source.

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Bo Nix

NegativeUsage40:40

The source expresses significant concern regarding Bo Nix's performance in the first three quarters of games, citing a 3.9 yards per attempt average during that span in his recent Sunday night game. While acknowledging his fourth-quarter production, the source argues that Nix cannot afford to play poorly for 45-50 minutes if he hopes to keep pace with elite quarterbacks like Brock Purdy.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveBreakout48:34

Bowers is playing at an elite level, functioning as a wide receiver rather than a traditional tight end. He leads all tight ends in EPA per route run (0.25) and EPA per target (0.66). With 74% of his snaps detached from the formation, he is being used similarly to Puka Nacua, and the source expects him to command a wide receiver-level contract extension.

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PositiveUsage63:28

Brock Bowers has been awesome and served as the focal point of the Raiders' passing game last week, though he may face L'Jarius Sneed in one-on-one coverage this week.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection39:46

The source identifies Brock Purdy as a potential MVP frontrunner, noting his high level of play and Kyle Shanahan's comparison of his confidence to Matt Ryan's 2016 MVP season. Purdy is described as playing at a historic rate, with the 49ers' offense producing touchdown drives at a higher frequency than any team since at least 2000.

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PositiveProjection60:58

Purdy is playing at an elite, MVP-caliber level, leading the NFL in success rate (52.6% since 2023) and maintaining a 64% success rate this season. He is highly effective against zone coverage and over the middle of the field, where he leads the league with 152 yards. Kyle Shanahan has compared his confidence to that of Matt Ryan in 2016.

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Bryce Young

PositiveProjection1:30

Bryce Young has shown significant improvement this season, and the source expresses faith in his ability to perform against the Lions' struggling pass defense.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection55:29

The source reiterates that CJ Stroud is having a nice year individually, but notes that the Texans' offense is struggling with consistency, particularly in short-yardage situations and the run game. The lack of aggression and push in the passing game is attributed to the current health of the roster, specifically the absence of Nico Collins and Jaden Higgins.

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Davante Adams

PositiveProjection72:43

Davante Adams is the only Rams player who has looked like himself, performing at a high level reminiscent of his younger years.

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Drake Maye

NegativeProjection17:26

Drake Maye is struggling significantly with mental processing and patience, holding the ball too long and failing to take underneath completions. All six of his interceptions have occurred when holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds. He is attempting more deep shots (21.3% of attempts) than last year but has a negative completion percentage over expected on those throws, leading to an offense that is stalling.

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NegativeProjection64:32

The source expresses zero confidence in the Patriots' offense under Drake Maye, noting that his play has lowered the team's floor and capped their ceiling.

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Geno Smith

PositiveProjection30:07

Geno Smith had a highly efficient game against the Lions' defense, completing 83.8% of his passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeUsage37:14

Hurts is currently struggling to handle pressure despite his veteran status, leading the Eagles to use extra bodies in protection to make him more comfortable. The source notes a lack of trust in his protection as the primary issue.

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Jalon Daniels

NegativeRole70:30

Jalen Daniels may provide a backup quarterback bump for the Buccaneers, based on his preseason performance.

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James Cook

PositiveUsage27:07

James Cook was highly effective for the Bills last week, demonstrating the ability to run between the tackles. His success provides the Bills with a reliable alternative when Josh Allen faces defensive shells that limit deep passing.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveProjection60:05

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is noted for having a strong performance in the recent game, continuing to produce despite the absence of Kenneth Walker.

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PositiveUsage60:08

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is highlighted for his strong performance in the Seahawks' recent game, where he 'went off' during a contest where Geno Smith threw for nearly 400 yards.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection16:43

Josh Allen is described as being on another planet this season, serving as the primary engine for the Bills' offense despite recent turnover issues. He struggled against two-high safety shells last week, throwing two interceptions, but remains a dominant force.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection5:03

Justin Herbert has not been himself this season, and his performance is being hampered by the Chargers' poor special teams, which ranks last in average starting field position differential at negative 9.1 yards, forcing the offense to constantly dig out of holes.

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NegativeProjection60:42

The source notes that Justin Herbert has struggled significantly this season. It is stated that it would require the 'best game of Justin Herbert's season' for the Chargers to keep their upcoming matchup against Seattle close.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage55:41

Walker is performing at an elite level, leading the league with 41 forced missed tackles—12 more than the next closest player. He displays exceptional ball security and burst, with the source highlighting his ability to maintain possession even when defenders attempt to punch the ball out.

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PositiveUsage61:31

Kenneth Walker has been amazing for the Chiefs' rushing offense, which has become a key component of their balanced attack this season.

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Matthew Stafford

NegativeProjection30:45

Matthew Stafford is struggling significantly under pressure this season, with his quarterback rating dropping to 28.8 compared to 86.0 last year. He is not trusting his reads or getting the ball out quickly, which is a major concern heading into a matchup against an Eagles defense that generates a 39.2% pressure rate.

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NegativeUsage33:21

Stafford is struggling with pressure and lacks trust in his protection, leading to a slower release time (2.7-2.8 seconds) compared to the quick-game approach needed to beat blitzes. The source notes he is failing to identify free rushers against disguised zero-blitz looks, which resulted in a pick-six against Hufunga, and the team must adjust their protection schemes to avoid further struggles.

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NegativeProjection72:36

Matthew Stafford has not looked like the MVP-caliber player he was last year, though he is dealing with team-wide issues.

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Michael Penix Jr.

NegativeProjection75:45

Michael Penix started slow but finished nearly perfect in his last three quarters of play.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeInjury31:47

Puka Nacua's absence is a significant factor in Matthew Stafford's struggles. Last year, Stafford's quarterback rating under pressure was 83.0 with Nacua on the field, but dropped to 63.4 without him, indicating Nacua's presence is vital for Stafford's efficiency.

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PositiveRole32:32

Nacua serves as a vital security blanket for Matthew Stafford, particularly against pressure. His absence is significantly impacting the Rams' offensive efficiency and Stafford's ability to navigate blitzes.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeRole61:47

The source questions if Rashee Rice counts as a dynamic down-the-field receiver for the Chiefs, suggesting the team still relies heavily on yards after catch.

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Sam Darnold

PositiveProjection60:08

Sam Darnold is highlighted for a near 400-yard passing performance in the team's recent outing.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection43:56

Trevor Lawrence is described as playing 'out of his mind' through the first three weeks, showing elite confidence and performance against zone coverage. While he has shown slightly lower EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.18) compared to zone (0.25), the source remains confident in his ability to bounce back and perform well against the Bengals.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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0:00Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 4 Podcast. Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:07Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:10This is for the victory! Quarterbacks this, receivers that, we don't care.
0:14He says he'll get it then? Yeah, let's kick it, Shane!
0:17Let's kick it! This is NFL Pro. We're talking special teams today.
0:21There is a remarkable trend across the NFL, all about special teams, that is making a massive difference, not just in who's
0:27getting the most yards, but who's winning and losing games.
0:30Trevor, are you ready to talk about the third phase?
0:33Oh, I'm more than ready. We talked about in the reaction show how close all of those games were this past Sunday.
0:40How there were more one-score finishes on that Sunday than we had seen in such a long time.
0:45And the more that I thought about it, I was like, you know what?
0:49I look at these teams, like the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Dolphins, these teams that were supposed to be cellar dwellers, right?
0:56Pencil in the win. It's an easy win. They're going to be terrible this year.
1:01And you look at these teams, these teams look competitive.
1:04They look good. It's tighter matchups between these lower teams.
1:07And to me, it signals the fact that the floor of the NFL this season feels so much higher.
1:12And so when we dug into maybe why, well, you get to the part of the game that often gets overlooked and underappreciated, under-talked about.
1:20And that is special teams. And from there, the wonderful people at NextGenStats, they found us the data to actually back up
1:27the fact that this is making a major difference this year.
1:30It's up. It is good! He's perfect on the young season!
1:33Yeah, if you're just looking at the box score, right?
1:36Like how many yards your offense got, how many yards your defense held the opposing offense to, it's easy to get a
1:43sense of how a game went in that way.
1:46But it rarely tells the whole story, which is why if you're looking at average starting field position differential, that's where a
1:52lot of the hidden yards in the game shows up.
1:55Because the better your starting field position, the less yards your offense has to get to score.
2:00Math, baby! Math! Math, math, right? Shows up in scoring drive percentage.
2:04That's another big number we're going to get to today.
2:07And if you're looking at the teams that are best in terms of average starting field position differential, how good is our
2:14starting field position versus how good is the opponent's starting field position?
2:17Right at the very top is the Raiders at plus 12.2 yards.
2:21That showed up even last week, right? When the Saints turned the ball over four times.
2:26They started one of those drives inside the Saints' 10-yard line.
2:29They started another one of those drives effectively at midfield.
2:32So you don't have to get as many yards to score to make that comeback like the Raiders did when you're set up for success like that.
2:40That happened with the Broncos, right? One of the things that spurred their comeback was a huge punt return.
2:46And then the Rams had a bad punt that set up the Broncos at midfield for their next score.
2:52Like this stuff matters. The yards don't go away just because you're not getting them on offense.
2:57You're just getting them from a different unit and that's special teams or in some cases defense if you're getting turnovers.
3:03And if you're looking at the teams that are bad in average starting field position differential, you got the Chargers at negative 9.1 yards.
3:10That shows up. It makes Justin Herbert have to work harder.
3:14And he hasn't exactly been himself this season. So it's something that doesn't show up in the box score, but you feel it while you're watching the game.
3:22Like you feel like your offense always has to dig out of a hole or you feel like your defense is always put in a position to succeed.
3:31And having this kind of number, starting field position differential, it tells the story that I don't think has really gotten told so far this season.
3:38When you look at best average starting field position, the Raiders are at the top of that list, right?
3:44I mean, we're highlighting them for a reason as a team that's playing really well.
3:49And when you look at their EPA per play on offense or even just total EPA, they're kind of like right around the middle of the league.
3:57And yet they're sitting here at 3-0 and it goes into sort of what you said, like where are the hidden yards?
4:03Where's the hidden advantage? It's here. Raiders, 39.9 yard line is their starting field position.
4:08Panthers are right behind them in Panthers. High scoring team.
4:11They put up a lot of points to start the season.
4:14They're right at the 35 yard line. Bengals right behind them at the 33.7 yard line as an average for their starting field position.
4:22And then when you look at some of the worst average starting field position, well, it's three teams that have been very frustrating to start the year.
4:30The Patriots, just a 25.6 yard line starting field position average.
4:33The Rams, a 25.8. The Texans, a 26.4. So these are teams that are having slower starts to the season that you go, man, what's up?
4:41And obviously there are things on offense and defense that are sort of hampering them that we've talked about already this season.
4:47But special teams are such a, again, underappreciated and under talked about factor when it comes to how close these teams have been on the scoreboard.
4:55And I think it matters a lot because the new kickoff rules have totally changed things.
5:00Oh, yeah. Like it kind of goes into head coaching decisions, right?
5:04You and I have talked about timeout management, fourth down decisions, all that kinds of stuff.
5:09It's winning in the little margins that sometimes mean the world to games that have a sliver margin for error.
5:15You have to win in those margins. Coaching decisions are one of them.
5:19Special teams are absolutely another. And the way that special teams are set up in today's NFL, if you start out with
5:25the ball around the 35-yard line, Brett, how many players are you away from field goal range at this point?
5:31In the case of the Ravens, one. You are so much closer to potentially putting points on the board that this cannot
5:38be overstated, just how important special teams are. One of the things that NGS tracks is coaching decisions, right?
5:44Are you going for it or are you punting?
5:46Are you kicking a field goal? Are you punting?
5:49And it's determined by win probability added, right? Are you going to get a higher win probability if you make a certain decision?
5:56You know, they track how often coaches are aggressive versus conservative relative to what the recommendation is.
6:01I would advocate we need to track another decision beyond field goals, punting, and going for it.
6:06And that's the willingness to intentionally give the other team a touchback at the 35-yard line, right?
6:11This was brought up by Jesse Minner after the Cowboys game.
6:15They decided to kick a touchback, gave us the ball in the 35.
6:19We really only needed, you know, 18-plus yards to get to our, you know, end-of-game type of range.
6:24The touchback rule is huge. Like, it's the 35-yard line, so...
6:27That added five yards of field position matters a lot.
6:30Like, even if you're just looking at pre-new kickoff rules, right now that average starting field position after a kickoff is 31.1 yards.
6:37Before the new kickoff rules, it was at 26.5 yards.
6:40That's worth a lot in terms of average scoring drive percentage.
6:44Huge difference. Huge difference. 4-5%. If you amplify that even more out to the 35, you're one throw away in the case
6:50of the Ravens from getting into these kickers' ranges that are, you know, past 60 yards at this point.
6:56And so I would like to track coaches that intentionally give those extra five yards of field position on a touchback versus just trusting their unit to cover.
7:04Because, in my mind, that's kicking scared, in a way.
7:07Because you don't trust your kickoff unit to keep them under 35, and so you're giving them the 35, which means you
7:14have 20 yards of cushion, if that. That decision cost Dallas.
7:17It cost Houston. You know, there was another special teams rule change that I don't think has gotten covered enough.
7:23Now, teams have the ability to prepare these balls essentially a week in advance for these kickers.
7:29And so ranges have gotten extended. Not to mention the kickers these days are just better.
7:33And you're giving them the ability to prepare these balls.
7:36Like, they used to only have, I think, 90 minutes before kickoff.
7:40Now they have days to do it and really dial in the ball how they want it to be.
7:46And by the way, we do have some stats to back this up.
7:50If you're looking at the number of 50-plus yard field goals attempted since 2023, on average, it's 172.5 per year.
7:56Before then, there was never more than 120 in a season.
7:59That's a massive jump. This year, by the way, we're on pace for 198.
8:03Like, these kickers are going nuts, dude. It wasn't long ago to where a 60-plus yard field goal, like a 61, 62 yards, was considered, like, insane.
8:11Right? And now, if you don't have a kicker where hitting a 60-yarder, they're at least capable of doing it, you're out.
8:18They'll find somebody else who could do it. It's just crazy, the growth of this.
8:23Now, you mentioned how they can prep some of these field goal balls.
8:26I think people are going to ask, like, what does that look like?
8:30So the things that you could do, apply a wet towel to the ball, brushing the football by hand with a new
8:37ball brush, using the side of the brush to soften the leather and remove the slickness to it.
8:42Ultimately, what this is doing is it's putting more life into the football.
8:46I mean, Cam Little attempted a 70-yard field goal this past week.
8:50An attempt that a couple of years ago wouldn't even seem plausible.
8:54Just amazing to see the kicking range of these guys in the NFL.
8:58You can't just overlook this and say, eh, you know, we don't really love our special teams kick coverage group, so we're
9:04just going to boot it in the end zone and give it to them at the 35.
9:09This is going to be something that's extremely important to monitor throughout this season, but also in the future seasons to, again,
9:16where is this emphasis on special teams going to be more and more important when we get to the offseason?
9:22And you know how, like, later in the draft we go, oh, they drafted this guy for special teams.
9:28You might start to see serious premiums on guys who are truly difference makers in special teams when it comes to those
9:34kick coverage groups because you do not and you cannot have the other team start with the football at the 35 for free.
9:41Y'all have my back. I love having y'all's back.
9:44If you're in those special teams meetings, you know we don't return!
9:48Let's get into some of these game previews, though, because we do got to talk about the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
9:55This is a premier matchup, I think, before the season started.
9:58Everybody was really looking forward to this, but now, Brett, it's two teams on different trajectories.
10:03The Bills lost the turnover differential by four last week and still were able to win the game.
10:08Before that, the previous two games, Josh Allen looked absolutely unstoppable.
10:12And on the other side of things, it feels like it couldn't look worse for the New England Patriots.
10:17Well, my concern level is very high for this football team.
10:21Not to beat a dead horse, but the Bills special teams is pretty good, too.
10:25They have the fifth-best average starting field position at 32.7 yards and the sixth-most special teams EPA so far this year.
10:32That was a big reason why, you know, I mean, they were always going to be a tricky matchup with the Chargers,
10:38but the Chargers special teams is bad. Bills special teams is good.
10:42That certainly helps make up the difference for five turnovers in a game, right?
10:46When you also add in Josh Allen is just on another planet at this point, Drake May can't buy a deep completion,
10:53certainly can't buy a red zone touchdown. They have more turnovers in the red zone than touchdowns at this point.
10:59You kind of need every advantage you can get to win a game like this if you're New England, and they have almost every disadvantage you can have.
11:07It's a really, really tough matchup for them. A lot tougher than I thought it was going to be, you know, a month ago.
11:14The Drake May conversation, I don't even necessarily think it's too much schematically.
11:18I think a lot of it's mental for Drake May.
11:21Because when you look at some of the areas where you would think that Drake May would have an advantage, where it's
11:28no blitz or being able to hold onto the ball a little bit longer, that's the area where Drake May seems to struggle the most this season.
11:36All six of his interceptions have come when he has held the ball for longer than two and a half seconds.
11:43It is when he is looking deep down the field.
11:46Throws down the middle. It's intercepted! Julian Love! I think that this is a natural progression of good quarterbacks.
11:51You start and you get this hot shot young quarterback who's got all the arm talent in the world, and the NFL,
11:58a lot of defense coordinators will say, alright buddy, we're going to throw the kitchen sink at you.
12:03We're going to blitz you, we're going to play tight man coverage, nobody's going to be open immediately, what are you going to do with it?
12:11And the best quarterbacks, they're able to say, hey, now I got my guy one-on-one, I'm going to finish my drop back, boom, there it is.
12:19I'm going to give him a shot to the sideline outside the numbers, and that's what a lot of Drake May's best stuff was last year.
12:27Well, the natural progression, if you remember, the league had a problem with this with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and the
12:34league said, okay, here's what we're going to do.
12:36We're going to play two higher, we're going to play, you know, three deep, four deep, whatever it is, and we're going to dare you to be patient.
12:45We're going to make it so you have to take everything underneath.
12:48Drake May just doesn't want to do it. And there's kind of a reason why that might be the case, just from an offensive standpoint with the Patriots.
12:57When you look at the Patriots, their 8% missed tackle rate by wide receivers last year was the third lowest in the NFL.
13:04And this year, it's no better. None of their wide receivers have forced a missed tackle yet this season.
13:09So, Brett, you kind of combine things a little bit here.
13:13The quick game with wide receivers isn't very dynamic for you, so you don't want to go to that a lot.
13:19The running game has either been inefficient, non-dynamic, or sometimes both at the same time.
13:24So you don't love going to the ground game.
13:26So you have the ball in Drake May's hands a lot longer, which is playing right into what the defense wants him to do.
13:34Against the Bills specifically, for this matchup, they don't play man.
13:37They're playing man coverage at one of the lowest rates this season, 14.5%.
13:41That's 7th lowest in the NFL. So all that to say, I don't mean to pile on, but I don't know if
13:47it gets better for the Patriots this week. This is a tough matchup for them.
13:52My comp would be if the late 2010s Warriors just stopped being able to shoot threes.
13:57Because last year's offense was very much kind of about the three ball, right?
14:01He's still taken those shots down the field as much as he did before.
14:05If you're looking at percentage of attempts that are 20-plus yards down the field, he targeted those vertical routes on 19.7% of his attempts.
14:12And then if you're looking at this year, it's up to 21.3%.
14:16So he's actually being more aggressive than he was last year.
14:19It's just balls not going in the hoop, right?
14:22If you're looking at his completion percentage over-expected last year on vertical routes, it was plus 13.7%, which is nuts.
14:28Because those are already low percentage balls as it is.
14:31They call them 50-50 balls for a reason. So if you're hitting them at that rate, yeah, your EPA per play is
14:38going to look crazy because you're hitting a bunch of explosive plays that most teams aren't going to hit.
14:44But this year, he's negative on completion percentage over-expected on those.
14:47So he's attempting more of them, and he's worse at it, which means the offense is stalling because the run game's inconsistent.
14:53You know, weirdly enough, the best player on the offense this year has been Will Campbell, but I would say pass protection's
15:00been up and down outside of Will Campbell. And when you're not hitting those three balls, for lack of a better comparison,
15:07you kind of just don't have anything else. And they were so good at it last year that they didn't need to have anything else.
15:14It's not like they were a great yak team last year.
15:18Like you said, they were third lowest rate in missed tackles forced after the catch by their receivers last year.
15:24They're terrible at it again this year. It's just they don't have that shot down the boundary to be their comfort food.
15:30I don't know how you fix this other than just learning how to operate the offense completely differently, right?
15:36Develop a real quick game. Be able to get some yards after the catch, which is really more on the receivers than
15:43on May, but ball placement does matter for that, but you've got to break a tackle at some point.
15:48They need to go back to basics and stop just trying to trickshot their way down the field because it's not working.
15:55It hasn't looked good for the Patriots. And then really quick for Buffalo's side, Josh Allen did throw his two interceptions last week against two high safety shells.
16:03I believe it was four deep coverages on both of those interceptions from him.
16:08Essentially, it was the Chargers daring him to throw things underneath and he got a little over his skis and he threw those interceptions there.
16:15The Patriots do run two high safeties right around the middle of the pack of the NFL this season.
16:21And so they could see a decent amount of that and they could lean a little bit more into that.
16:27But man, when the Bills were able to run the ball the way that they could between the tackles last week with
16:34James Cook, you got an answer for everything. Just like you said, the Patriots have not been able to do this.
16:40The Bills looked at last week and said, All right, well, Josh Allen's really struggling to throw deep down the field.
16:46Let's run the ball. Oh, the advantage that they had doing that was amazing.
16:51So I think it's full Bills advantage for this game.
16:54If the Patriots win, it's going to take by far the best game of their season.
16:58Reaches for the goal line and he's into the end zone.
17:02The cook is in the kitchen. The Rams and the Eagles are the next game that I want to touch on here
17:08because Brett is the loser in big trouble in this game for both of these teams.
17:13Obviously, only one team can win. Technically, both teams can tie.
17:16But whoever loses this game, I think that the season's, man, taking a real bad turn for them.
17:22You basically have to win to keep pace for the one seed in the NFC.
17:26And these are two teams that want the one seed in the NFC.
17:30If the Rams start one and three, I don't know how they're going to be able to do that.
17:36When the two other teams that potentially could get the one seed are in their division, that's tough sledding.
17:42And the Eagles, they're in a fight with Dallas for this division at this point.
17:46I know Dallas hasn't exactly started off the best in the win-loss column, but just watching them using my eyeballs, I would
17:53say Dallas might be a bigger threat right now than Philly just because their offense looks so discombobulated.
17:58The throw intercepted by P.J. Edwards. So yeah, both these teams have to win this game.
18:03It feels early for a must-win. But if you're looking at the macro of the season and setting up who's winning your
18:10division, who's not winning your division, difference between a one seed and a five seed potentially, this is huge.
18:16For the Rams, I know a lot of the talk has been on the defense side of the ball, right?
18:22No Miles Garrett. Aaron Donald hasn't been the high-impact player that some people thought that he'd just be able to pop off the couch and be.
18:29I think it's going to take a little bit of time for Aaron Donald.
18:34And I just think the defensive line overall hasn't been as ferocious as it was last year, and we thought that it was going to be.
18:42But really, the major issue to me is on the offensive side.
18:45Because Stafford does not look the same specifically under pressure this season.
18:49When you look at Matthew Stafford, his numbers under pressure last year, I mean, he threw five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 86 quarterback rating.
18:56I mean, this year under pressure, he has a 28.8 quarterback rating.
18:59It is just totally different for him. And then specifically, I mean, you want to talk about, okay, well, is it a Puka Nakua thing?
19:07Is it just the fact that Nakua has not been out there?
19:11It could be a little bit of that. I mean, the on-off splits for them this year, it's a small sample size.
19:17But when Puka Nakua has been on the field, it still hasn't been great.
19:21The quarterback rating under pressure was 4.1, but Nakua has barely been out there.
19:26So I wouldn't necessarily take that too much into account.
19:29But it's last year's numbers under pressure that I think do mean a little bit more.
19:33And certainly, surprise, surprise, one of the best wide receivers in the game is out there.
19:38The quarterback plays better, I know. But when Nakua was out there on the field, when Stafford faced pressure, he still had a quarterback rating of an 83.0.
19:47And then when Nakua was off the field all of last year, that dipped to a 63.4 quarterback rating.
19:52So I think that Nakua's absence certainly means a good amount here.
19:56But it's worse than even that difference last year would have led you to believe.
20:01Stafford just is not trusting things. He is not getting the ball out when he needs to, where he needs to.
20:07And specifically for this Eagles matchup, the Eagles have generated the ninth highest pressure rate in the NFL at a 39.2.
20:13So again, you talk about this game meaning a lot to both sides.
20:17Stafford's got to look better against a team that has been able to generate pressure.
20:22Although this past weekend, the Eagles weren't really able to generate pressure because Keenan was getting the ball out of his hands
20:28in less than two and a half seconds. Stafford's much more around, you know, 2.7, 2.8.
20:33So he's not that quick with getting the ball out of his hands.
20:37But ultimately, Brett, we got to see better answers from Stafford.
20:40The MVP of last year has to be able to play better under pressure.
20:45Or I think that this game could be, again, more of a struggle than you would think for this Rams team.
20:51And, you know, you bring up those splits. And to me, that shows what a safety or rather security blanket Puka's been
20:58for him under pressure because most blitzes in the NFL are not man blitzes.
21:02They're zone blitzes, right? It's either going to be a 3-3 fire zone, three deep, three under with five rushing.
21:08Or, you know, the popular thing these days, because Brian Flores does it all the time, you call it a quarters fire zone or a palms fire zone.
21:16It's too deep. And then you still have five coming after the quarterback.
21:20We've seen teams throw six bodies at the quarterback.
21:23They faced a bunch of double mug looks against Denver, where we're just putting a bunch of guys in the line of
21:30scrimmage, and it's on you to figure out who's coming and who's going.
21:33I mean, that last pick that he threw against Hufunga, the pick six, it was a brilliantly disguised zero blitz that did not look like zero pre-snap.
21:42And so they do have to sort this out because it kind of feels like teams have figured out their protections a
21:48little bit of like, okay, they are not going to block it up with seven.
21:53They're going to block it up with five or six at most, and they're trusting their MVP quarterback to sort out the free runner.
22:00And they're saying like, hey, you have an old quarterback who we think we can outnumber in terms of number of rushers versus your protectors.
22:08He can't get away, so we know the ball has to come out quick.
22:12That's how Hufunga got the pick six is because it was a really nicely disguised zero.
22:17He knew they were going to have a free rusher.
22:20Ball's out immediately. He just steps in front of the running back.
22:23Like they have to figure out a new protection plan that involves more bodies or teams are just going to keep doing this to them.
22:31They're just going to keep blitzing him because he can't get away.
22:34And to kind of loop the Eagles back in here, I would say Hertz has the opposite problem.
22:40They've been using more bodies in protection with him because he clearly doesn't trust his protection.
22:45And so they feel like they have to make him more comfortable with extra protectors because he's not handling the pressure as
22:51well as he probably should for a quarterback as veteran as he is.
22:55And to me, that comes down to trust. All this to say, both quarterbacks have issues with pressure right now just in different kind of ways.
23:03And the quarterback that figures it out first is probably going to win this game.
23:08We did mention that this is going to be tough whichever team loses this game.
23:12But specifically for the Rams, Brett, if they lose against the Eagles this week, they're 1-3 on the season to start.
23:18They then play Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills the next week.
23:22Obviously very tough. Then they have a stretch of the Cardinals, the Raiders, the Chargers, the Commanders, and the Cardinals again.
23:29I mentioned a couple of those teams playing way better than we thought that they were going to this season.
23:35You might have to go 4-1 at worst during that stretch because then you have your bye week in Week 11 if you're the Rams.
23:42But then it goes Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Seattle.
23:47I know we talked about the one seed. If you lose this game, you're putting so much pressure on yourself in that
23:53five-game stretch from the Cardinals to the Cardinals right in between those games.
23:57I mean, you almost have to go 5-0, which is a very, very, very tough thing to tell yourself you have to
24:04do even for a team that's as talented as the Rams.
24:07So for the Super Bowl favorites, I don't want to say they're in trouble early, but they got to pick it up
24:14or they might be looking at not just not getting the one seed.
24:18Are they the Super Bowl favorites still? No, I'm saying the Super Bowl favorites going into the season.
24:23Like by far, everybody would have. No, no, no, no, no.
24:27No, I think that there are many other teams that are now in that conversation.
24:31But going into the year, you'd be hard-pressed to find really anybody that was betting against the Rams this year.
24:37The most important intent is just making sure we educate our players on how it's being officiated so there's clarity of how
24:44we can coach them to play technique and fundamentally through the cycle of the snap.
24:48And so that's kind of where we're at with that.
24:51All right, before we get to our next game, we're going to do a blind resume real quick.
24:57I want you guys at home to also play along with us.
25:00This is a new game we're trying out here.
25:03Trevor, are you ready to identify the team based on the blind resume that I give you?
25:08I feel like I should have had something to actually cover my eyes for the visual here for the blind resume.
25:15But yes, I am ready. Let's do it. Let's go.
25:18Yeah, we'll get NFL Pro branded blindfolds for next time.
25:21So here's your resume. Third in explosive pass rate.
25:23Fourth in 12 personnel usage. First in yards before contact.
25:26This is all one team with these three stats together.
25:29Your choices. The Ravens. The Bills. The Chiefs. Yards before contact?
25:33Kenneth Walker's forced a ton of... Kenneth Walker's forced a ton of missed tackles, but like...
25:38If you could do that after the fact as well, it doesn't have to be right at the line.
25:43Oh man, these are like three of the teams I would have thought of here.
25:48I'm gonna go with the Chiefs. I'm gonna go with the Chiefs here for this one.
25:53Finally! Callie got you and not me. Dang it!
25:55That is wrong. Who was it? The answer is...
25:58The Baltimore Ravens. Ah, man. You hate to see it.
26:01You hate to see it. No, I'm just kidding.
26:04Baltimore fans love to see it. I actually love to see this.
26:07It's about time somebody else got something wrong. Ah, man.
26:10All right, the streak is over. Streak is over.
26:13I was 3-0 on our researcher, Callie, and she got me here.
26:17So the streak resets here. Okay, here is your question for Blind Resume.
26:21This team, this mystery team, fourth in time to pressure, third in overall offensive success, first in tackling efficiency.
26:26Okay? So the 49ers, the Buffalo Bills, or the Detroit Lions.
26:30So once again, fourth in time to pressure, third in overall offensive success, first in tackling efficiency.
26:35I feel like the Bills game disqualifies the Lions immediately as far as tackling efficiency.
26:39I would not have gotten this answer. Oh, Callie, you're killing me.
26:43Give me the teams again. The Niners, the Bills, and the Lions.
26:47See, now I think it might be the Lions because she knows that I wouldn't think it's the Lions.
26:52It's the game within the game. It's the mental game.
26:55Now he's no longer thinking about the statistics. Now he's thinking about the interactions personally that he has had over the last
27:02couple of weeks as we've been doing our show prep and gathering notes.
27:06It's like poker, man. You're playing the players. You're not playing the cards.
27:10You are. You're playing the players here. Yeah. Give me the Lions?
27:13It is the Lions. Yes! Yes! Finally! Finally! Oh my God!
27:17It is the Lions. And honestly, man, that's why I said I would not have gotten this one.
27:22I would not have gotten this answer. I would have disqualified the Lions right off the bat.
27:27They're giving up the most passing yards per game, which I would have thought that their secondary would have been terrible at tackling to, again, disqualify them completely.
27:36But good on you, man. Good on you for recognizing the trap.
27:39That's tough to do. Well done, my friend. Well done.
27:42All I have to do is just recognize the bait.
27:45If it's too easy, that means it's actually correct.
27:48I may not know the teams, but I know when somebody's trying to get in my head.
27:53Chiefs and the Raiders. I do want to touch on these two teams because, hey, 3-0, 3-0, undefeated versus undefeated, baby.
28:00Who thought that this was going to happen here in week four?
28:03It's a very intriguing matchup for a lot of reasons.
28:06I think the Chiefs could have expected they'd be in this spot.
28:10Not a lot of people expected the Raiders to be.
28:13So where do you want to start with this game preview?
28:16Let's just keep it with the theme of the day.
28:19Special teams, right? This is a matchup between two really good special teams units.
28:23Average starting field position for the Raiders, again, best in the NFL so far this year at the 39.9 yard line.
28:30So they're starting drives basically at midfield. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are starting drives at the 32, which is still 11th best.
28:36So their return unit's also really good. And they are plus 2.7 EPA on special teams, which is also 11th best.
28:42So the hidden yardage advantage that the Raiders have had so far this season might be dialed back a bit in this
28:49one, which then puts more pressure on Cousins and Bowers and Gentey and all these guys to kind of make up that
28:56difference and get the real yards instead of the hidden yards.
28:59The question I have is, can they do that against a resurgent Chiefs defense that has a bunch of DBs that are
29:06playing out of their mind and have not one, not two, but three corners that could match up on Brock Bowers and potentially do some damage?
29:14Yeah. Bowers. I mean, you talk about the things that are going well for the Raiders.
29:18You figured that Brock Bowers was going to be one of them.
29:22He absolutely is. I just wanted to kind of put it into context how well he is playing right now.
29:28When we talk about Bowers versus other tight ends, his plus 0.25 EPA per route run is the sixth most in the
29:35NFL and it's the most amongst all tight ends with a minimum of 20 routes this season.
29:40And his 0.66 EPA per target, seventh most amongst tight ends with a minimum of five targets.
29:45But just to quantify sort of how good Brock Bowers is, not just against tight ends, but against all of these top
29:52receiving options in the NFL, you look at his EPA per play when he is on the field.
29:57So we're looking at splits on and off the field.
30:00When you look at when he is on, the only other wide receiver that has a higher EPA per play when he
30:07is on the field is CeeDee Lamb. Brock Bowers is 0.10 EPA per play when he is on the field is higher than Jackson Smith and Jigba.
30:15It's higher than Tee Higgins. It's higher than Jamar Chase.
30:18Now the differential of on-off splits is a little bit lower than a couple of those other guys, but he's right there in that category.
30:25And that's been huge, obviously for the Raiders this season.
30:28And he's sort of been Kirk Cousins' best friend throughout the year when he has been out there.
30:34But I think that you are right. I think that the Chiefs have a unique ability, not only in their players, but
30:40also in their coach to get creative with how they match up against Bowers.
30:45You talked about this, how Bowers is a tight end basically only by name.
30:49He is a wide receiver. He is running routes from the slot.
30:52He is running routes from out wide. He is a wide receiver.
30:56And so with that, why bother putting a linebacker against him?
30:59Why bother putting a safety against Brock Bowers? He's not a tight end.
31:03There's no reason to line up a linebacker and a safety, which often gives Brock Bowers that advantage when teams try to do that.
31:11He's a wide receiver. Pull a Jerry Sneed on him.
31:14Put Noel Williams on him, right? I mean, like just put a corner.
31:17Put Delaney on him. Any of them. Put a corner on Brock Bowers.
31:21And I think that Steve Spagnuolo is going to say, hell yeah, I'm going to do that.
31:27So I think obviously he's going to mean the world if Brock Bowers doesn't have a big day.
31:32I'm not so sure that the Raiders can keep up with the Chiefs.
31:36And I think that that's how Kansas City is actually going to try to neutralize him.
31:41Yeah, he had 33 routes last week. 25 of them were in the slot or out wide, which is just a wide receiver number.
31:48If you're looking at how often he was detached from the formation, this is per NextGenStats, 74.0% of his snaps, up from
31:5553.2% last year when they at least kind of pretended he was a tight end.
31:59They're not even doing that anymore. He was aligned out wide or in the slot on all of his receptions.
32:05And Vegas head coach Clint Kubiak has not deployed a quote-unquote tight end detached from the formation on at least 50% of
32:12his snaps as an offensive coordinator or head coach before Bowers.
32:15It's the first time he's ever done it. So he's not a tight end.
32:19And the thing that I am fascinated by is when his eventual contract extension comes up, is he going to allow himself
32:26to be paid like a tight end? Because I wouldn't if I was him as an agent.
32:31No, no, no. They're absolutely... Now, remember, was Jimmy Graham kind of the first most notable headline-y one?
32:37Jimmy Graham led the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and was about to hit the market, but the Saints want to keep him.
32:44And they're expected to use their franchise tag on the fourth-year pro.
32:48Graham took to Twitter and said, confirming it's officially Franchise Friday.
32:51Tag. I guess I'm it. It was back in 2014.
32:54There was an argument over the franchise tag, and they had an independent arbiter that ruled he was a tight end based
33:01on percentage of snaps in line versus outwiden in the slot.
33:04And it was a lot closer to 50-50. It's not 50-50 in Vegas.
33:08It's 74%. So he's basically being used the same way that Puka is in Sean McVay's wildest dreams.
33:13That's a receiver. Like, his contract, if he gets franchise tag, I would bet they're going to argue it says a receiver.
33:20But when he does get his extension, he's not going to be scaling off Trey McBride.
33:25He's going to be scaling off Jamar Chase. I agree.
33:28I agree. On the Chiefs side of things, before we move on here, a team that's top three in total EPA earned this season.
33:35Big reason why is because of how balanced they can be with Patrick Mahomes and then obviously Kenneth Walker.
33:41But what do you think about Kenneth Walker's matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this week?
33:46He's got 41 missed tackles for so far this year.
33:49It's 12 more than the next closest player, which is absurd.
33:52The key for this matchup to me is just can the Raiders continue being as good at tackling as they have been so far this year?
34:00And they were quietly a very good run defense last year.
34:03It's just the volume stats made them look worse than they actually were.
34:07Efficiency-wise, they were a very good run defense. But if you're looking at their missed tackle rate as a defense, they're at
34:1412.5%, which is 13th lowest in the NFL. So slightly above average.
34:17That's better than the 13.9% they had last year.
34:20So they're even better at tackling than they were before.
34:23Five yards allowed per missed tackle, which is 10th fewest.
34:26They were at 5.3 last season. So even when they miss, there's always somebody else there to rally and finish the job.
34:33And they have 10. Is this a real number?
34:3510 forced fumbles? We're three weeks into the year.
34:38I thought I misread that. Get after it, baby.
34:41Punch the ball. What the hell? Create turnovers. Name of the game.
34:44We've been talking about it all year. How do you get the little advantages?
34:4910 forced fumbles. But that's a team that is just flying around trying to make plays, man.
34:54And I think that, look, I'll be up front.
34:56I'm not picking the Raiders in this game. However, I love what they're doing.
35:01I love what John Spitek has done. I love very clearly the culture that Clint Kubiak has established within that locker room
35:07and within that team early on to where you've even got young guys flying around believing that they can make plays at the highest level.
35:15So you better believe that if they do win this game against the Chiefs, I cannot wait to talk about this team
35:22and give them their flowers in the reaction show that you guys can see next Monday.
35:26So, again, I'm not quite picking the Raiders. I am picking the Chiefs in this game.
35:31But, man, if they're able to take down the Chiefs and they look good, this is a story that we are going
35:38to have to continue to tell through a megaphone now at this point if they become 4-0.
35:43That's what resilience looks like, okay? That's you guys believing in each other, okay?
35:47Never say and die, okay? And fight until the very end.
35:50Say, so proud of you. So proud of the effort.
35:54I'm not surprised, though. I'm not surprised by how that turned out.
35:57One last note here. Did you see the video that the Chiefs posted of Kenneth Walker in his run last week where
36:04he did, like, a frame-perfect parry, if you're a fan of fighting video games, where a Dolphins player came in and perfectly
36:10peanut-punched the ball, and he just went, goosh, and just blocked it.
36:14Like, he just secured the ball, like, fractions of a second.
36:17He's like, nope, my ball, and just kept going.
36:20Unreal, dude. Like, he is just on a different planet right now.
36:24You know what that stems from? When you're in high school, you're walking around from class to class holding the football.
36:30And everybody's just on it. Fundamentals. That's where that begins, baby.
36:33What a burst. Incredible torque. Finds 22 yards, and he takes the ball to the 47 of the Chiefs.
36:39For Broncos 49ers. Brett, it unfortunately feels like it's just another season for the Niners when it comes to injuries.
36:45They're just racking up so many guys that are either hitting IR, short-term, long-term.
36:49This depth chart looks so different than what it was even four weeks ago right before the season.
36:55But the fact of the matter is, it doesn't matter.
36:58Because Brock Purdy is playing that well. He is playing at an elite level, and he is giving them a chance no
37:04matter who is on the offensive line, no matter who he is throwing the ball to, no matter what their defense looks
37:11like, no matter what country the game is being played in, Brock Purdy is giving them a chance to beat any opponent at any given time.
37:19He is playing the position about as well as you can for a player who has his skill set.
37:25He's been unbelievable. I've mentioned some incredible football players so far that should be on the MVP ballot.
37:30Josh Allen, Lamar, Kenneth Walker. I would put Brock Purdy at the very top.
37:34If I had to give an MVP after three weeks, he has been sensational in almost every single way.
37:40If you're looking at his career success rates at 52.6%, that leads every quarterback in the NFL since he got in the league in 2023.
37:48Not so irrelevant, after all, I guess. He's the only quarterback, by the way, in that time span with multiple seasons of 50% or higher.
37:55This year, he's at 64% success rate. For people that don't know what that is, it's essentially a metric that tracks how on schedule your offense is.
38:03If it's first and 10, if your offense gains four yards, that's considered a successful play.
38:08You get to second and six. If you gain three yards, that's considered a successful play because it just sets up third and short.
38:15Just can you stay ahead of the sticks? Can you stay on schedule?
38:1964% of the time, that's what he's doing, which is just unreasonable as a metric.
38:24Nobody does that in the modern NFL. If you're looking at how that translates into scoring drive success, the Niners offense has
38:30scored touchdowns on 48.1% of their drives this year, easily highest in the NFL.
38:35That's highest through the first three weeks in the season since at least the year 2000.
38:39They didn't start tracking it before then. It might be the best ever.
38:43We don't know. But at least in the best in recent history, this is the most effective offense Kyle Shanahan's ever had.
38:50And Kyle Shanahan's coordinated some of the best offenses ever, right?
38:53You look at the 2016 Falcons. You look at the late 2000s Texans.
38:57You're just looking at some of the other 49ers offenses that he's led.
39:01There's nothing that's ever been this good. Ever. Like, we don't have a comparison for this.
39:06That is how dominant Purdy has been and how in the zone Kyle Shanahan has been.
39:11Yeah, I'm going to run through some numbers really quick just to quantify exactly what you're talking about.
39:16Brock Purdy versus zone this season. Completion percentage, fourth highest in the NFL.
39:20Yards per attempt, also fourth highest. EPA per dropback, most in the NFL.
39:24All right, what about in the intermediate area? Completion percentage, third highest.
39:28Yards per attempt, second highest. EPA per dropback, oh, once again, most in the NFL.
39:32And then over the middle of the field where he has been so fantastic.
39:36Completion percentage, seventh highest. Yards per attempt, fifth highest.
39:39EPA per dropback, sixth most. 152 total yards over the middle of the field.
39:43Most in the NFL. They said he couldn't do it.
39:46They said he was too short. They said he couldn't see over the middle of the field.
39:52But I think that, you know, a little bit tongue-in-cheek there.
39:55But I think that goes into something that Brock Purdy said himself on a podcast where he said, Hey man, look, in
40:01the NFL, like I've talked to Kyle Shanahan about this.
40:04Because 40% of the throws that you have, you're not going to be able to see when guys are open.
40:11You're throwing to a spot. You're throwing to a zone.
40:14You got to have that much confidence in what you are seeing.
40:17And the confidence works both ways. Because Kyle Shanahan also said recently that he compared the confidence that he has in Brock Purdy to Matt Ryan in 2016.
40:26That MVP caliber season from Matt Ryan. That's the comfort level that we're talking about.
40:30So we've gushed over Brock Purdy a little bit here.
40:33But there's another quarterback on the other side in Bo Nix who also has the ability to play the position at a high level.
40:40But do you think from what we've seen from Nix over the first couple of weeks, you have faith in him keeping
40:47up with Purdy and ending up winning this game?
40:50What do you think? Well, that's the issue, right, is the keeping up.
40:54I think if this is a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, let's just say it's one possession.
40:59Because the Broncos defense, you know, steps up to the challenge and holds this incredible Niners offense down at least a little bit.
41:06If this is a one-possession game, yeah, Bo Nix can win it.
41:10And we've seen him do that over and over and over again.
41:13Look at the Eagles game last year. Look at the Giants game last year.
41:17Look at the Rams game. If the game is close in the fourth quarter and you just need him to put together
41:24one drive, he can put together that one drive.
41:27The problem is if the game's already out of reach because of how he plays in the first three quarters, I have
41:33pretty big worries that he's going to be able to dig them out of the hole that he creates.
41:39And the 30-point second-half explosion. Why can't we do this in the first half?
41:43If you're looking at just the first three quarters from that Sunday night game against the Rams, his yards per attempt was 3.9.
41:50The fourth quarter was 9.9. But even if you're just looking at completions on attempts, he was only 4 of 9 in that quarter.
41:58Like, he completed less than 50% of his passes.
42:00It's just he had a 9.9 yards per attempt because he got 60 yards on back-to-back throws on that last drive because
42:07the Rams blew two coverages in a row. So if the Rams don't blow those coverages, do they even get into the
42:14red zone with those controversial penalties in the first place?
42:17I'm not sure they do because of what he played like in the 50 minutes leading up to that moment.
42:23And I just, I don't have faith that he's going to keep up with Purdy right now.
42:28And I know Broncos fans would be like, well, he had two touchdown drives in the third quarter.
42:33Yeah, one of them they started at midfield and they ran the ball to the red zone.
42:38I'm giving credit to the offensive line. I'm giving credit to the run game.
42:43But it's not like Bo was the one that was carrying the team on his back there until those two throws against like literally broken coverages.
42:50You can look at it on tape. So I'm not saying Bo Nix is a bad quarterback.
42:56That's not the point of this segment. What I'm saying is he can't play like a bad quarterback for 45 to 50
43:02minutes and try to keep up with the guy who might be the MVP frontrunner.
43:07Like you have to do that the entire game.
43:09You have to go blow for blow. You can't just let him stack touchdowns on you because eventually you're going to be
43:16down by 20 points and it's going to look like the Chiefs game from week one where you're just kind of waiting
43:23for it to happen and it never did. And they just got blown out and embarrassed on national TV.
43:28So he has to play good from the first quarter on.
43:32He cannot save it for the fourth quarter. Not against an opponent like this one.
43:36Here's what has to happen. We have to continue to tread in the right way.
43:41All right? But I'm proud of every one of you.
43:44Jags-Bengals, last game that we're going to talk about here today.
43:47And it's also a matchup of two great offenses, great quarterbacks.
43:50And I'm specifically looking to see what Trevor Lawrence is going to be like in this game.
43:56Because through the first three weeks of the season, man, he's been excellent against zone.
44:00Every time that a team has played zone coverage against him, you talk about quarterbacks that are confident right now.
44:06Trevor Lawrence believes he can make any throw in the world.
44:09And he's showcasing it, especially in the red zone, man.
44:12When things are at a premium, when space is at a premium, I mean, he only seems to play better, which a quarterback does that.
44:20It's pretty incredible. The Bengals, though, they play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL this season.
44:26So is this game maybe going to be a little bit harder for Trevor Lawrence?
44:31Because if you go back to that week two game against the Broncos, it was the second half of that game when
44:37the Broncos switched more to man coverage in which Lawrence started to struggle.
44:41Now, it's still been good for him. 0.18 EPA per drop back against man.
44:450.25 EPA per drop back against zone. So it's not like he has a negative EPA per play.
44:51He's still a great quarterback against man coverage. It's just looked a little bit different.
44:55Now, on the flip side, go back to last week, Aaron Rodgers tore this defense up.
45:00Aaron Rodgers versus the Bengals. Man coverage. 8 for 15, 149 passing yards, two touchdowns, 0.54 EPA per drop back.
45:06And we highlighted this in the reaction show. Aaron Rodgers was able to hang on to the ball for a while and
45:13actually make a lot of these plays happen as well.
45:16So what matters more here? The fact that Lawrence hasn't been as good against man coverage?
45:21Or is it the fact that, sure, the Bengals play it, but they've given up a lot of explosive plays this season and Aaron Rodgers carved them up?
45:29I'm not sure. And I think that's going to go a long way into determining who has the most points when this one's all done.
45:37I'm looking for a bounce back game from Lawrence.
45:39The Clemson one, the other Clemson one, Dexter Lawrence.
45:42Sorry, I've been saving that for years for them to match up.
45:46It's about time to get it. No, that was good.
45:49I didn't know where you were going there, but that was good.
45:52He kind of got his ass kicked against Pittsburgh last week.
45:56I'm not going to lie. How did he get his ass kicked or did they just have a good plan for him?
46:02First of all, I'm not convinced the lifting of the leg thing was legal, but it was genius.
46:08So bonus points for that. However, that's not even really the play that I'm talking about.
46:12If you're looking at that big Jalen Warren run, they scoop blocked Dexter Lawrence and just ran it right at him.
46:19This left side of the Steelers line did really well against Dexter Lawrence.
46:23And so I'm a little bit not worried. I'm curious to see if he bounces back in this one because the left
46:29side of the Jags line is also pretty good, right?
46:32Emmanuel Pregnant has been a wall for them at left guard.
46:36Harrison, we know, is a really talented tackle. And then you got Nate Borkutcher, right?
46:40Rookie tight end who, let's say his selection was controversial at the time.
46:44And we'll leave it at that. No, you can say it from yours truly.
46:48My face is the poster boy for me being skeptical of how early they went with this Nate Borkutcher selection.
46:54But hey, this is identifying the talent and recognizing where it could fit on your roster.
46:59And I even said afterwards, like, look, I think that they picked him way too early.
47:04I think that they could have got him later.
47:07I question the overall draft strategy with it, but how they're deploying him, what it means, and how it is making this
47:13run game and this trenches better for the Jags.
47:16It looks awesome early on. For them to already have these returns for him, however highly you wanted to draft him, you
47:23have to feel good about what he is doing early on because you are right.
47:27It's changing their power run game. It is changing, I guess, beyond power run game.
47:32It's changing the dynamics of what they want to do on the trenches in the blocking game entirely.
47:37And I think that that's been incredibly valuable for them early on this season.
47:41And, you know, when you put him next to Harrison, next to Pregdon, that left side, it just caves people in.
47:48This is actually kind of the matchup between two teams that love blocking tight ends the most.
47:53They're two of the top three teams in terms of 12 personnel usage in the league.
47:58Jags use it 31% of the time. Cincy uses it 38.2% of the time.
48:02So blocking tight ends galore in this one. And Dexter Lawrence has to bounce back from last week because when they put
48:09him on that side, they are trusting him to really just make the math be in their favor against a talented left side of this Jags offense.
48:17He's got to do it. Here we go, everybody.
48:19It's time for our week four game picks here.
48:22Trevor and Brett, once again, picking the 10 most interesting games, the games we are most compelled by in this week's slate,
48:29and not only picking the winner, but ranking them in terms of confidence.
48:33So if you've been following along for a while, you know the drill.
48:37But if you're new here, what we do is we take these 10 games and we order them in confidence rankings.
48:43So the team that we have at the number 10 spot, that means that we are getting 10 points if we get that game right.
48:51In the 9th spot, you get 9 points if you get it right.
48:548 spot, 8, and so on and so forth.
48:57We'll kind of preview these games as we go along.
49:00And we've been keeping score all season long. Brett, would you like to know what your score was from week three and then also your season total here?
49:09How do you think you did? Dude, I think I got demolished.
49:12I'm not going to lie. I had a bad week three.
49:16I think everybody had a bad week three other than the people in the comments.
49:20They kind of smoked me. We'll talk about the people in the comments who we love that you guys are getting involved in this as well.
49:28We'll shout a couple of you out in a couple of minutes.
49:32But you did lose your number 10 confidence game, your most confident game, because you picked the Bengals over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
49:38But all in all, you got 33 points last week, which brings your season total to 111.
49:43I don't know how I did, but I do know that I picked the Buccaneers to win and they did not.
49:50So I know that we lost that one right off of the bat.
49:54But give me the bad news. Tell me how it was.
49:57So you came into the week one point behind me in total.
50:01Yeah. You got 34, which means your season total is 111.
50:04We are dead even. You love that parody. You love that parody.
50:07I mean, we're just simply matching what the NFL season is giving us, right?
50:12Because we had the most one score games in a Sunday slate that we've had over the last 20 years this past week.
50:19So we're right on par with the 2026 NFL season.
50:22Okay. Tied up. Oh man, that just makes, that makes this game pick even better.
50:26Shout out to some of you guys who are getting in on the games as well.
50:31We absolutely love this. You guys are firing it off in the comments where you're taking the 10 games that we have.
50:38You're ordering them and you're picking them as well.
50:40Three people that we got a shout out right off the top of the show.
50:45So Iber Condrell, I think is how you say this 46 points for their game picks last week.
50:50They only missed one game. And the one game that they missed was the Bengals.
50:55They also took the Bengals over the Steelers. Quasar, who we also shouted out last week, by the way, 45 points again last week as well.
51:03So they are on a roll tablet brothers, 44 points.
51:06That was some of the highest scores of any of the entries that we had.
51:10Last week. And by the way, these top three that we just named there, they were the only fans to pick three of the four upset winners.
51:18So the Steelers, the Colts, the Broncos, and the Raiders, they at least had three out of four, some combination of those four teams.
51:26So shout out to you guys. And again, if you want to get in on the game here with us, do so
51:32in the comment section, listen to the 10 games that we have here this week, and give us your picks and in the confidence rankings.
51:40So we can keep, we can keep your scores as well as ours.
51:44Brett. I don't know why the NFL is paying us to do this.
51:48They should just have them do it. Dude, don't say that out loud.
51:52Come on, come on, come on. The mortgage brother.
51:54Roger. We should get Rogers out here as well.
51:57not even say it. Okay. The first game that I want to highlight.
52:01Jacksonville versus Cincinnati. This is a tough one, man.
52:04Is it two teams that can light up a scoreboard, but what are we thinking here?
52:08Who you taking and where is it in your confidence rankings?
52:12So Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind so far this season.
52:16So I am taking Jacksonville to win this game.
52:18I did put it up my three spot. It's mainly because I can't figure out what Cincinnati is right now.
52:24If you take out the special teams errors, would they have beat the Steelers last week?
52:29I, I think it's a strong possibility, but the special teams are what the special teams are.
52:34If you're looking at special teams, EPA per play, they're second worst in the NFL so far this season, giving up a
52:41lot of explosive plays through the air. Also, you know, the Steelers just kind of ran right at Dexter Lawrence last week.
52:48The left side of the Jags line is pretty good.
52:51I, I just don't feel good about the Bengals in this one, which of course means they're going to win, but I'm
52:57picking Jacksonville to take this one at my three spot.
53:00I'm also taking Jacksonville, but because of the uncertainty of both of these offenses, being able to light it up at any
53:07point in time, this is only in the one spot for me.
53:11So I'm going to take the Jags too, but this is all the way down to the bottom of my list.
53:17An interesting point for this game is that Trevor Lawrence has been tearing it up specifically against zone coverage.
53:23He's been great against man as well, but he's specifically been phenomenal at attacking zone coverages, man.
53:28He's gotten a little bit more trouble with, you know, you look at the second half of that Denver Broncos game, he
53:34struggled and they switched to play a lot more man.
53:37So it was just a different look. The Bengals play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL so far this season.
53:45So they could sort of lean into what Lawrence hasn't been as stellar at this season.
53:49However, Aaron Rodgers just absolutely lit up this Bengals defense last week, playing a lot of that single high cover one, cover three stuff.
53:57So the tape is out there on how you beat it.
54:00And I got a lot of faith in this coaching staff.
54:03So I'm taking the Jags here in this one.
54:06Dallas Cowboys coming back stateside. to take on your Houston Texans.
54:09What do we think about this one? So three weeks in a row, I've picked the Texans and put it at the one spot.
54:17I don't know how I can have any confidence in this team at this point.
54:21So I'm going Dallas. I'm putting it at the four spot.
54:24All right. There's just so, there's so many problems with the Texans right now.
54:29None of them are CJ Stroud, by the way, I do want to reiterate that he has had a nice year, but
54:35they have had problems up front, especially trying to run the ball.
54:39That has cropped up, popped up again this year.
54:42You know, defense, it's just been very inconsistent, more inconsistent than I expected from them so far this year.
54:47Like Will Anderson had a whale of a game, and it still just didn't feel like it mattered that much because when
54:54they really needed this defense to step up, you're giving up 20 yards.
54:58Laquan Treadwell sets up game winning field goal. So I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Texans right now.
55:05So I'm going Dallas who also has their own issues, but less issues than Houston.
55:09Yeah. Without an Eagle Collins and obviously, you know, Jaden Higgins as well with his long-term injury, this team sort of struggled
55:16to, I mean, CJ Stroud said it in the presser after the game.
55:20He's like, we weren't aggressive. We didn't push the ball the way that we needed to.
55:25They're bad in short yardage situations on the ground.
55:27Like you mentioned, I mean, those third and short fourth and short situations.
55:31I mean, this team is just not reliable right now with converting a lot of those things.
55:36And so the easy stuff seems harder and the more difficult stuff just doesn't seem feasible with the current health of that roster right now.
55:44So it's tough for me, even with Houston's defense and all the potential it still has.
55:49It's tough for me to think about this team outscoring a Cowboys offense that I think is just only getting better.
55:55And we saw them really start to catch fire in Brazil last week.
55:59I know they didn't win the game, but certainly the offense did what they needed to do to have a chance to
56:06win it at the end, score a touchdown and take care of it right there in regulation or kick the field goal.
56:12And they thought that they were going to head to overtime.
56:15And obviously they didn't because of the defensive blunder there.
56:19I'm also taking the Dallas Cowboys, but I'm putting that at my five spot here.
56:23So pretty close to where you have it at.
56:26We've got the same team winning this game, but I'm going to take that at the five spot about the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers.
56:34Niners just keep racking up injuries as it unfortunately feels like they always do.
56:38And it continues to not matter. This team is still executing at extremely high level and the Broncos where they can play
56:45a very high level of football at some points, they can flip the switch very quickly and it can all not look great.
56:52Just such a high variance team right now. So we take it in this one and where are you putting in the confidence ranking?
56:59So I'm taking San Francisco to win this game.
57:02Injuries be damned. All right. Is it weird that I put it at the seven spot?
57:06Like I'm actually really confident in this. Cause I just look at how Brock Purdy is playing.
57:12I compare that to how Bo Nix is playing.
57:14You're asking Bo Nix to keep up with who I believe is the MVP front runner right now in Brock Purdy.
57:21Can you go drive for drive with this offense?
57:23This offense that has put up touchdown drives at a rate higher than every other team in every other season in the
57:30first three weeks of a year since at least 2000.
57:33It is absurd what they're doing right now. It is historic what they're doing right now.
57:38And Bo Nix, God bless him for the fourth quarters that he's had.
57:42Quarters one through three still matter a lot. And he's been objectively bad in quarters one through three.
57:47And I feel like even with good fourth quarters, the gap between these two quarterbacks is going to be so big that
57:54I don't think Denver is going to be able to overcome that.
57:57So give me San Francisco at the seventh spot.
58:00I'll be different than you here. I'll, I'll take the Denver Broncos and it's super high variance.
58:05Like I said, but the highs for this Denver team are really good.
58:09You know, again, you talk about a team that was toe to toe with the Jags who I feel like are one
58:16of the better teams in the NFL. And they even were able to adjust in the second half and best that team.
58:22And I think there's a world where they could give Purdy some fits.
58:26And I think that the Broncos play man coverage, not only at a higher rate, but I think they play coverage better
58:33than most teams that like to do it on a regular basis.
58:37Obviously having Patrick Shirtan really helps you in that regard.
58:40But I also look at the player that Talanova Hufanga is and, and sort of, we saw that this past week and
58:46how great that he was in sort of that Rover role where he's over the middle of the field.
58:52I mean, Purdy loves to attack over the middle of the field.
58:56And I think the Broncos are going to try to set up their defense to where they're giving Hufanga the ability to
59:02really close in on a lot of those in breaking routes that over the middle stuff.
59:07So I think a lot of the numbers so far would tell you to pick San Francisco.
59:12So I certainly don't fault you for it, but I think Denver's defense is uniquely built to frustrate Purdy more than these
59:19other teams have been able to, to start the year.
59:22So as long as Bo gives us the up, we can get, we can have a little bit of the down, but
59:29as long as he gives you the up, I think they got a chance to win this game.
59:34So I'll take the Denver Broncos here at my four spot for this one, the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Chargers thoughts, opinions.
59:41Where are we going? If the Chargers win this game, I'll be stunned.
59:45Me too. Cause I have it at the 10 spot for Seattle winning.
59:49I put it, I put it at nine, Seattle winning at the nine, like, which might surprise people that I have something even higher than that.
59:57But like, is there anything, literally anything that the Chargers do better than Seattle at all?
60:02I don't think there is. No, no, I'm, I'm, I'm with you.
60:05And you look at last week's game where Seattle loses.
60:08And we talked about it in the review show, how turnovers meant everything in that game, right?
60:14They turn the ball over three times. Washington scores touchdowns on all three turnovers.
60:18And they still only won that game by two points.
60:21You know, Jack Smith and Jigba still goes off.
60:23Sam Donald almost has 400 yards passing. I think that we saw in that game, you know, okay, this is going to
60:30be a little bit different with us not having Kenneth Walker here.
60:34If you're on the Seattle Seahawks side of things, but it's so hard to watch the Chargers, especially on offense and how much Herbert has really struggled.
60:42It would, I think this goes without saying it would have to be by far the best game of Justin Herbert's season
60:48for them to keep this close, let alone upset Seattle in this one.
60:52So I had the Seattle Seahawks at the 10 spot because where I think some teams, you know, might have viewed the
60:59Chargers at this point coming off of licking their wounds a little bit as like a trap game, maybe ease up on it a little bit.
61:07The Chargers aren't really what we thought they were going to be going in the season.
61:12A Mike McDonald team is not going to do that, especially coming off of a loss.
61:17So I got a lot of faith in them.
61:19Obviously I got that at the 10 spot. What about the chiefs and the Raiders?
61:24Three and overs to three and oh, by the way.
61:27So I went the chiefs with this one. I put it at the five spots.
61:31Okay. Like dead in the middle. Cause I wasn't a hundred percent sure about it, but I feel pretty confident in it.
61:38So I put it in confidence rankings. You know, if there's one thing that the Raiders have been good at the last
61:45season, plus three weeks, it's been their run defense.
61:47And if there's one thing that chiefs have really leaned on so far this season, it's been their rushing offense.
61:53Kenneth Walker has been amazing. If the Raiders have a good day, just even remotely containing Kenneth Walker and, you know, forcing
62:00the chiefs back into being that one dimensional pass heavy team that they were the last couple of years without really having
62:07a dynamic receiver, uh, to speak of. I don't think where she rice counts.
62:11Like I'm talking like down in the field receiver.
62:14Yeah. You know, if, if we get them into that one dimensional mode where it's explosives through yak or nothing can, can the chiefs still win this game?
62:22And I'm, I hesitate with it. So I put it at the five spot.
62:26I think it's more likely than not that Kansas city wins, but like, would it shock you if Vegas does for me?
62:33Not really. I have the chiefs winning and I have this at the ninth spot.
62:37And I think, wow. Okay. So it would shock you.
62:40It's, it's, it feels a little disrespectful to how the Raiders have started the year, but because I don't want to take
62:47credit away from how well the Raiders are playing.
62:50I just still view this as a little bit of a different tier.
62:54The chiefs are top three in the NFL in total EPA per play and just, well, total EPA.
62:59And I believe EPA per play as well. If not top three, I believe they're top five in both of those categories.
63:06The offense is just a well-oiled machine right now.
63:08You mentioned what Kenneth Walker has meant to this team, but it's more complimentary for the chiefs than it ever has been.
63:15And I think that that really matters here and how they're probably going to put a lot of stress on young defenders
63:22for the Raiders who are playing well. I want to be clear, but again, I think that there's levels to this and
63:28where I think they're a lot closer to what Kansas city has been in years past, the way that Kansas city is
63:35currently operating, especially because when you look at Steve Spagnuolo, I think he's going to have something up his sleeve for how
63:42you slow down this Raiders offense, which has been methodical.
63:45And I think that Kirk's done a really great job.
63:48Brock Bowers has been awesome when he has been out there, especially last week when he was the focal point of that passing game.
63:55But you and I've talked about this, like they might just use luxurious need one-on-one against Brock Bowers.
64:00And like Brock will still get his, but I don't think it'll be as easy as it's been in weeks past.
64:07So I think it'll be a fun game. I really do.
64:10But I've just got so much faith in the chiefs when it comes to how they have moved the ball, how they
64:17have scored points, how repeatable and how explosive it is both in the passing game and the ground game.
64:22I just think they're going to end up with more points in this game, even if it's a better football competition between
64:29the two than it has been in years past.
64:32So I'm taking the chiefs here and I got them at the nine spot, Buffalo and new England.
64:37Where'd you got this game? So this is my tenor.
64:40I put the bills at 10 over now. All right.
64:43All right. How can you watch Drake may this season and think they're going to win this game?
64:49I, I, I have zero confidence in this team.
64:51It's not, it's not really an indictment on their defense.
64:54It's not an indictment on their offensive line. Like Will Campbell has been playing like the best Patriots offensive player who saw
65:01that coming after, you know, the home stretch last year when he was playing banged up, but it's true.
65:07Like he has been playing really well, but this is a quarterback league, whether we like it or not.
65:12Like, yes, it's 22 on 22, but nobody has a bigger effect on whether or not your team wins or loses in the quarterback.
65:20And Buffalo has a quarterback that not just raises their floor, but also raises their ceiling.
65:25The Patriots so far have had quarterback play that reduces both makes their floor way lower.
65:29And I feel like their ceiling is capped at knee height this year so far.
65:34So I just, I don't, as odd as it is to say, compared to where we were a month ago, looking at
65:40this team, I need to see it to believe it with the Patriots.
65:44This could very easily be a team that's like bottom 10 or worse.
65:48I, I have the bills winning this game at the eight spot here.
65:52So I also see it pretty highly the way that you do.
65:56And it goes a little bit back to what I talked about with the chargers.
66:00If they, if the chargers win their game, if the, if the Patriots win this game against the bills, they will have
66:07looked at, this will be by far the best they have ever looked this season.
66:12Like in so many facets of the game and for Buffalo to be a team that just had five turnovers and lost
66:18the turnover differential by four and still won the football game.
66:22I mean, that just tells you how genuinely like powerful this team is and how there is no say die with the
66:28Buffalo bills that for, for as much as they can shoot themselves in the foot, they still have the players to get out of it in any situation.
66:37And the way that the Patriots are playing, it's really hard to have faith that they're all of a sudden going to
66:43be the team that capitalizes on the bills mistakes.
66:46Because last week was the week for the bills to lose.
66:49You had five turnovers. You lost the turnover differential battle by four.
66:53Like that was, I'm not saying that the bills are going to go undefeated.
66:57I don't know if they're going to go undefeated, but that's the game that you lose.
67:02So if you're the Patriots, what are you saying?
67:05Well, I mean, if we, if we, if we get six turnovers, six turnovers, then we got a shot, you know?
67:11So look, every game starts zero, zero. Every game is different, but I agree with you.
67:16It's, it's hard to watch what the Patriots have done and think that they're going to beat this bills team.
67:22So I got that at the eight spot, uh, Carolina and Detroit Sunday night football here.
67:27A little prime time in Carolina. First time, I think in over 10 years that the Carolina Panthers have been on Sunday night football.
67:34What do you think about this game? The only thing I know for sure is that Detroit's going to score 31 points.
67:41Cause that's all they've done all season is just score 31 points.
67:44The question is, can Carolina get to 32 or higher?
67:47Maybe. Or higher. 32 or higher. Maybe. I, I can't, I can't figure out the Panthers.
67:52Mm-hmm. Cause every time I feel like I do, a star player gets hurt and they just lost JC Horn with a torn quad.
67:59Right. Like Bryce has been really good, but you know, the Cleveland defense did clamp down in the red zone, force four
68:06straight field goals from them, which ultimately, you know, keeping those sevens from becoming, or keeping those threes from becoming sevens is
68:13why, you know, the Browns won that game. I still, I think I favored Detroit in this one ever so slightly, but
68:19it's more so because I really don't know what the Panthers are yet.
68:23I have a pretty good idea of what the, the, the lions are.
68:27They're a good offense with a shaky at best defense.
68:30So give me the lines to win this game.
68:33I put it at the one spot. Cause I have no idea.
68:36Like I really have no idea who's going to win.
68:39It's I'm taking Carolina. I'm taking Carolina here. I'll take the Panthers and I'll put this in my three spot.
68:45I agree with you that. I think the lions are going to score good amount of points.
68:51I think it's going to be above 25. Certainly.
68:53I don't know how high exactly it is. Maybe it is exactly 31.
68:57But this lions team is giving up the most passing yards per game of any team in the NFL through three weeks of the season.
69:05You look at what Gino Smith was able to do against his defense.
69:09He was 31 for 37 last week, 321 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, 129.8 quarterback rating, and an 83.8 completion percentage.
69:15Is that all? Bryce has had much more good than bad this season.
69:19And in fact, we've talked about it. It's sometimes been the best that Bryce Young has looked.
69:24So, I'm going to have faith in Bryce to continue to look really well against one of, if not the worst pass defense in the NFL.
69:32And I think because of that, I wonder if Carolina, you highlighted this in the season preview show, how Carolina all of
69:38last year liked to be that team that limited possessions.
69:42I wonder if there's a little bit of that.
69:44I wonder if there's a little bit of that as well.
69:48They're still averaging a very high, you know, like cushion coverage average when they're playing cover three and they're playing that off coverage.
69:54Do they keep things in front of them enough to slow down the game enough to where, hey, you capitalize on their mistakes a little bit.
70:02And very clearly in the passing game, they're not really able to put a lot of pressure on you, or at least they haven't been this season.
70:10I just, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll have my faith in Bryce Young in this game and how well he has played through
70:17the first three weeks of the season. I'll take Carolina.
70:20I got him at my three spot there. What about the Packers and the Buccaneers?
70:25What do you got with it in this game?
70:27I might regret this. I'm going with Tampa. Wow.
70:30I put it at my eight spot. Wait, hold on.
70:33Hold on. You know, Baker Mayfield's not playing, right?
70:36I'm, I realized that. Could it be worse? No, sadly, no, it can't, it really can't get too much worse than how
70:42the offense has played through the first three weeks of the season.
70:46So they might get the backup quarterback bump with Jalen Daniels, especially from how Jalen Daniels played this preseason.
70:52You heard it at the eight spot. I put it at the eight spot.
70:56It's not really a reflection on Tampa. Like Tampa hasn't been good.
71:00Green Bay's been atrocious. Green Bay's been bad. They've been really bad.
71:03This might be the worst offensive line in football.
71:06This is the all horrendous vibes bowl. It's, it's bad.
71:09Like this is a bad game. I can't think of a matchup where two combined fan bases are having less of a
71:16good time this season than the Packers facing the Buccaneers.
71:19Both fan bases are doing mock drafts. We're not in October yet.
71:22Like that's bad. Mocktober. You mean like I, yeah, I partially put it at the eight spot.
71:27Cause I felt like if I knew you weren't going to pick Tampa, I'm assuming you didn't pick Tampa.
71:33Of course not. No. And I was like, if there's any game, if there's any game, especially like a, just a gross
71:40game that I could build a little bit of a lead on you.
71:44I was like eight points on Tampa, maybe, but I don't feel good about it.
71:48I have green Bay winning. I haven't had a two spot.
71:52So if, so if Tampa wins this game, you are going to leap me, I think in the ranking.
71:57So we will see. You're right. I mean, green Bay's offensive line is, is bad and it doesn't feel like it's getting any better.
72:04But man, Tampa has been all over the place, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
72:10Maybe they do get that backup quarterback bump where you just, you don't know what to expect.
72:15And the kid comes out guns blazing, but we will see.
72:18We will see. You got it at the eight spot.
72:21I got it at the two spot. I had green Bay.
72:24You got Tampa. That's going to be interesting. Rams and the Eagles.
72:28Where's this in their rankings? So this was right above Kansas city in Vegas.
72:32I put it at the six spot. Cause I wasn't sure either way.
72:36Like I was reasonably confident, but I wasn't like really, really confident in it.
72:40Uh, so I picked the Rams in this one.
72:43They have their own problems, right? When you're, when you're missing miles Garrett, there is a difference in this pass rush.
72:49Uh, when you're missing Puka, there is a difference in this past game.
72:53Matthew Stafford. I don't want to say he's been bad, but it hasn't looked like the MVP Stafford of last year.
73:00Basically the only player who's really looked like himself is Davante Adams.
73:03And he looks like 29 year old Devontae Adams, not 35 year old Devontae Adams.
73:08Right. The defense, it feels like it oscillates with each passing week.
73:11I still can't quite figure them out either. So the one reason why I felt good about putting it at the six
73:18is because for all the problems the Rams have, the Eagles problems are worse.
73:22Yeah. Right. Nine possessions last game. And six of them were five plays or less.
73:27Like this offense can't do anything. And the defense, I I've, I expect a lot more from their defensive line so far this season.
73:34I'll say that. So give me the Rams reasonably confident, not super confident at the six spot.
73:39I get the Rams winning and I have the seven spot.
73:43Um, I just, man, it was, it was so out of sync what we saw with the Philadelphia Eagles, um, on Monday night football.
73:50And the first half wasn't horrible, but the second half, man, it was just, it was, um, I think the furthest end
73:56of the spectrum from what we have seen with this Eagles offense, not just this year, but also in years past as
74:03well, where it's either they are, they are a well-oiled machine or it is nothing.
74:08And there is far too much of both of those realities that exist for me to have a lot of faith in
74:14what the Eagles are doing right now, especially up front along the offensive line.
74:18The quick cat passing game really got to them against the bears.
74:22When case Keenum was getting the ball out of his hands really quick.
74:26I think the Rams are going to notice that and try to neutralize, uh, the Eagles defensive front in sort of the same ways.
74:33So give me the Rams in this one. I also think that the Rams are man, very desperate team.
74:39I mean, they're starting you, I'm not saying the season's anywhere close to over for them, but they're going to, they have
74:46a really rough last six or seven games of the season.
74:49They got to start stacking some wins together to be okay with, you know, bouncing around with wins and losses when they
74:56get into the late November and December. And I think this is one of those pivotal games for them.
75:01So I'll take the Rams. I got this a seven spot last game, the new Orleans saints and the Atlanta Falcons.
75:08Where's this game for you? It's like the polar opposite of bucks Packers.
75:12As far as vibes, it's just fun. I think both fan bases are really excited for this.
75:17You know, we know the dome is going to be rocking.
75:20It's, it's 20 years, uh, 20 year anniversary of, you know, the Gleason play.
75:24Um, it's going to be an emotional night. It's going to be a super juiced up night, but income, the Falcons coming
75:31off a really excellent win over green Bay, where they just dominated them almost 500 net yards of offense, two 40 on the ground.
75:38Bijon's looking amazing. He's also on the MVP ballot.
75:41If there was one right now, um, you know, the defense has been super aggressive.
75:45Michael Penix started off slow, you know, two and two, uh, two of seven in the first quarter finished darn near perfect in the last three quarters.
75:53I love this game. Like I, I really can't wait to watch this game as a like neutral observer as far as
76:00picking it darn near impossible because both of these teams are, really explosive.
76:04They can put up points. I'm going Atlanta, but I put it at my two spot because I, I don't really have
76:11a good idea of who's going to win. All I know is this is going to be phenomenal television.
76:16Like I really, really cannot wait for this game.
76:19Uh, and I'm, I'm very happy to be a third party fan that doesn't have to agonize over it.
76:25Cause I know it's going to be close either way.
76:28Uh, phenomenal television and NFC South matchups have not normally gone in the same sentence over the last couple of years, but here we are.
76:35I do think that this is going to be a fun matchup, whether that's like super explosive offense is fun or both
76:42teams not knowing how to win, but at the same time, and it's a close game to the very end kind of fun.
76:49Ultimately, the Atlanta Falcons, uh, play man coverage at a top 10 rate in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season.
76:56Tyler Shuck is a top 10 passer, at least for passing yards versus man coverage this season.
77:01And I think that that's when he feels very, very comfortable.
77:05And even though the Falcons want to play man coverage, I don't know if they have the full secondary to be able
77:11to be, to be able to contain this saints passing attack.
77:15Give me new Orleans in this one. I'm going to take new Orleans at the six spot.
77:20I think that they bounce back and I think that they get a, uh, division win here.
77:25Thanks for listening to our week four preview podcast.
77:28Listen to NFL pro on the I heart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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