0:00Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 4 Podcast. Thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:07Be sure to follow and subscribe to the show.
0:10This is for the victory! Quarterbacks this, receivers that, we don't care.
0:14He says he'll get it then? Yeah, let's kick it, Shane!
0:17Let's kick it! This is NFL Pro. We're talking special teams today.
0:21There is a remarkable trend across the NFL, all about special teams, that is making a massive difference, not just in who's
0:27getting the most yards, but who's winning and losing games.
0:30Trevor, are you ready to talk about the third phase?
0:33Oh, I'm more than ready. We talked about in the reaction show how close all of those games were this past Sunday.
0:40How there were more one-score finishes on that Sunday than we had seen in such a long time.
0:45And the more that I thought about it, I was like, you know what?
0:49I look at these teams, like the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Dolphins, these teams that were supposed to be cellar dwellers, right?
0:56Pencil in the win. It's an easy win. They're going to be terrible this year.
1:01And you look at these teams, these teams look competitive.
1:04They look good. It's tighter matchups between these lower teams.
1:07And to me, it signals the fact that the floor of the NFL this season feels so much higher.
1:12And so when we dug into maybe why, well, you get to the part of the game that often gets overlooked and underappreciated, under-talked about.
1:20And that is special teams. And from there, the wonderful people at NextGenStats, they found us the data to actually back up
1:27the fact that this is making a major difference this year.
1:30It's up. It is good! He's perfect on the young season!
1:33Yeah, if you're just looking at the box score, right?
1:36Like how many yards your offense got, how many yards your defense held the opposing offense to, it's easy to get a
1:43sense of how a game went in that way.
1:46But it rarely tells the whole story, which is why if you're looking at average starting field position differential, that's where a
1:52lot of the hidden yards in the game shows up.
1:55Because the better your starting field position, the less yards your offense has to get to score.
2:00Math, baby! Math! Math, math, right? Shows up in scoring drive percentage.
2:04That's another big number we're going to get to today.
2:07And if you're looking at the teams that are best in terms of average starting field position differential, how good is our
2:14starting field position versus how good is the opponent's starting field position?
2:17Right at the very top is the Raiders at plus 12.2 yards.
2:21That showed up even last week, right? When the Saints turned the ball over four times.
2:26They started one of those drives inside the Saints' 10-yard line.
2:29They started another one of those drives effectively at midfield.
2:32So you don't have to get as many yards to score to make that comeback like the Raiders did when you're set up for success like that.
2:40That happened with the Broncos, right? One of the things that spurred their comeback was a huge punt return.
2:46And then the Rams had a bad punt that set up the Broncos at midfield for their next score.
2:52Like this stuff matters. The yards don't go away just because you're not getting them on offense.
2:57You're just getting them from a different unit and that's special teams or in some cases defense if you're getting turnovers.
3:03And if you're looking at the teams that are bad in average starting field position differential, you got the Chargers at negative 9.1 yards.
3:10That shows up. It makes Justin Herbert have to work harder.
3:14And he hasn't exactly been himself this season. So it's something that doesn't show up in the box score, but you feel it while you're watching the game.
3:22Like you feel like your offense always has to dig out of a hole or you feel like your defense is always put in a position to succeed.
3:31And having this kind of number, starting field position differential, it tells the story that I don't think has really gotten told so far this season.
3:38When you look at best average starting field position, the Raiders are at the top of that list, right?
3:44I mean, we're highlighting them for a reason as a team that's playing really well.
3:49And when you look at their EPA per play on offense or even just total EPA, they're kind of like right around the middle of the league.
3:57And yet they're sitting here at 3-0 and it goes into sort of what you said, like where are the hidden yards?
4:03Where's the hidden advantage? It's here. Raiders, 39.9 yard line is their starting field position.
4:08Panthers are right behind them in Panthers. High scoring team.
4:11They put up a lot of points to start the season.
4:14They're right at the 35 yard line. Bengals right behind them at the 33.7 yard line as an average for their starting field position.
4:22And then when you look at some of the worst average starting field position, well, it's three teams that have been very frustrating to start the year.
4:30The Patriots, just a 25.6 yard line starting field position average.
4:33The Rams, a 25.8. The Texans, a 26.4. So these are teams that are having slower starts to the season that you go, man, what's up?
4:41And obviously there are things on offense and defense that are sort of hampering them that we've talked about already this season.
4:47But special teams are such a, again, underappreciated and under talked about factor when it comes to how close these teams have been on the scoreboard.
4:55And I think it matters a lot because the new kickoff rules have totally changed things.
5:00Oh, yeah. Like it kind of goes into head coaching decisions, right?
5:04You and I have talked about timeout management, fourth down decisions, all that kinds of stuff.
5:09It's winning in the little margins that sometimes mean the world to games that have a sliver margin for error.
5:15You have to win in those margins. Coaching decisions are one of them.
5:19Special teams are absolutely another. And the way that special teams are set up in today's NFL, if you start out with
5:25the ball around the 35-yard line, Brett, how many players are you away from field goal range at this point?
5:31In the case of the Ravens, one. You are so much closer to potentially putting points on the board that this cannot
5:38be overstated, just how important special teams are. One of the things that NGS tracks is coaching decisions, right?
5:44Are you going for it or are you punting?
5:46Are you kicking a field goal? Are you punting?
5:49And it's determined by win probability added, right? Are you going to get a higher win probability if you make a certain decision?
5:56You know, they track how often coaches are aggressive versus conservative relative to what the recommendation is.
6:01I would advocate we need to track another decision beyond field goals, punting, and going for it.
6:06And that's the willingness to intentionally give the other team a touchback at the 35-yard line, right?
6:11This was brought up by Jesse Minner after the Cowboys game.
6:15They decided to kick a touchback, gave us the ball in the 35.
6:19We really only needed, you know, 18-plus yards to get to our, you know, end-of-game type of range.
6:24The touchback rule is huge. Like, it's the 35-yard line, so...
6:27That added five yards of field position matters a lot.
6:30Like, even if you're just looking at pre-new kickoff rules, right now that average starting field position after a kickoff is 31.1 yards.
6:37Before the new kickoff rules, it was at 26.5 yards.
6:40That's worth a lot in terms of average scoring drive percentage.
6:44Huge difference. Huge difference. 4-5%. If you amplify that even more out to the 35, you're one throw away in the case
6:50of the Ravens from getting into these kickers' ranges that are, you know, past 60 yards at this point.
6:56And so I would like to track coaches that intentionally give those extra five yards of field position on a touchback versus just trusting their unit to cover.
7:04Because, in my mind, that's kicking scared, in a way.
7:07Because you don't trust your kickoff unit to keep them under 35, and so you're giving them the 35, which means you
7:14have 20 yards of cushion, if that. That decision cost Dallas.
7:17It cost Houston. You know, there was another special teams rule change that I don't think has gotten covered enough.
7:23Now, teams have the ability to prepare these balls essentially a week in advance for these kickers.
7:29And so ranges have gotten extended. Not to mention the kickers these days are just better.
7:33And you're giving them the ability to prepare these balls.
7:36Like, they used to only have, I think, 90 minutes before kickoff.
7:40Now they have days to do it and really dial in the ball how they want it to be.
7:46And by the way, we do have some stats to back this up.
7:50If you're looking at the number of 50-plus yard field goals attempted since 2023, on average, it's 172.5 per year.
7:56Before then, there was never more than 120 in a season.
7:59That's a massive jump. This year, by the way, we're on pace for 198.
8:03Like, these kickers are going nuts, dude. It wasn't long ago to where a 60-plus yard field goal, like a 61, 62 yards, was considered, like, insane.
8:11Right? And now, if you don't have a kicker where hitting a 60-yarder, they're at least capable of doing it, you're out.
8:18They'll find somebody else who could do it. It's just crazy, the growth of this.
8:23Now, you mentioned how they can prep some of these field goal balls.
8:26I think people are going to ask, like, what does that look like?
8:30So the things that you could do, apply a wet towel to the ball, brushing the football by hand with a new
8:37ball brush, using the side of the brush to soften the leather and remove the slickness to it.
8:42Ultimately, what this is doing is it's putting more life into the football.
8:46I mean, Cam Little attempted a 70-yard field goal this past week.
8:50An attempt that a couple of years ago wouldn't even seem plausible.
8:54Just amazing to see the kicking range of these guys in the NFL.
8:58You can't just overlook this and say, eh, you know, we don't really love our special teams kick coverage group, so we're
9:04just going to boot it in the end zone and give it to them at the 35.
9:09This is going to be something that's extremely important to monitor throughout this season, but also in the future seasons to, again,
9:16where is this emphasis on special teams going to be more and more important when we get to the offseason?
9:22And you know how, like, later in the draft we go, oh, they drafted this guy for special teams.
9:28You might start to see serious premiums on guys who are truly difference makers in special teams when it comes to those
9:34kick coverage groups because you do not and you cannot have the other team start with the football at the 35 for free.
9:41Y'all have my back. I love having y'all's back.
9:44If you're in those special teams meetings, you know we don't return!
9:48Let's get into some of these game previews, though, because we do got to talk about the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
9:55This is a premier matchup, I think, before the season started.
9:58Everybody was really looking forward to this, but now, Brett, it's two teams on different trajectories.
10:03The Bills lost the turnover differential by four last week and still were able to win the game.
10:08Before that, the previous two games, Josh Allen looked absolutely unstoppable.
10:12And on the other side of things, it feels like it couldn't look worse for the New England Patriots.
10:17Well, my concern level is very high for this football team.
10:21Not to beat a dead horse, but the Bills special teams is pretty good, too.
10:25They have the fifth-best average starting field position at 32.7 yards and the sixth-most special teams EPA so far this year.
10:32That was a big reason why, you know, I mean, they were always going to be a tricky matchup with the Chargers,
10:38but the Chargers special teams is bad. Bills special teams is good.
10:42That certainly helps make up the difference for five turnovers in a game, right?
10:46When you also add in Josh Allen is just on another planet at this point, Drake May can't buy a deep completion,
10:53certainly can't buy a red zone touchdown. They have more turnovers in the red zone than touchdowns at this point.
10:59You kind of need every advantage you can get to win a game like this if you're New England, and they have almost every disadvantage you can have.
11:07It's a really, really tough matchup for them. A lot tougher than I thought it was going to be, you know, a month ago.
11:14The Drake May conversation, I don't even necessarily think it's too much schematically.
11:18I think a lot of it's mental for Drake May.
11:21Because when you look at some of the areas where you would think that Drake May would have an advantage, where it's
11:28no blitz or being able to hold onto the ball a little bit longer, that's the area where Drake May seems to struggle the most this season.
11:36All six of his interceptions have come when he has held the ball for longer than two and a half seconds.
11:43It is when he is looking deep down the field.
11:46Throws down the middle. It's intercepted! Julian Love! I think that this is a natural progression of good quarterbacks.
11:51You start and you get this hot shot young quarterback who's got all the arm talent in the world, and the NFL,
11:58a lot of defense coordinators will say, alright buddy, we're going to throw the kitchen sink at you.
12:03We're going to blitz you, we're going to play tight man coverage, nobody's going to be open immediately, what are you going to do with it?
12:11And the best quarterbacks, they're able to say, hey, now I got my guy one-on-one, I'm going to finish my drop back, boom, there it is.
12:19I'm going to give him a shot to the sideline outside the numbers, and that's what a lot of Drake May's best stuff was last year.
12:27Well, the natural progression, if you remember, the league had a problem with this with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and the
12:34league said, okay, here's what we're going to do.
12:36We're going to play two higher, we're going to play, you know, three deep, four deep, whatever it is, and we're going to dare you to be patient.
12:45We're going to make it so you have to take everything underneath.
12:48Drake May just doesn't want to do it. And there's kind of a reason why that might be the case, just from an offensive standpoint with the Patriots.
12:57When you look at the Patriots, their 8% missed tackle rate by wide receivers last year was the third lowest in the NFL.
13:04And this year, it's no better. None of their wide receivers have forced a missed tackle yet this season.
13:09So, Brett, you kind of combine things a little bit here.
13:13The quick game with wide receivers isn't very dynamic for you, so you don't want to go to that a lot.
13:19The running game has either been inefficient, non-dynamic, or sometimes both at the same time.
13:24So you don't love going to the ground game.
13:26So you have the ball in Drake May's hands a lot longer, which is playing right into what the defense wants him to do.
13:34Against the Bills specifically, for this matchup, they don't play man.
13:37They're playing man coverage at one of the lowest rates this season, 14.5%.
13:41That's 7th lowest in the NFL. So all that to say, I don't mean to pile on, but I don't know if
13:47it gets better for the Patriots this week. This is a tough matchup for them.
13:52My comp would be if the late 2010s Warriors just stopped being able to shoot threes.
13:57Because last year's offense was very much kind of about the three ball, right?
14:01He's still taken those shots down the field as much as he did before.
14:05If you're looking at percentage of attempts that are 20-plus yards down the field, he targeted those vertical routes on 19.7% of his attempts.
14:12And then if you're looking at this year, it's up to 21.3%.
14:16So he's actually being more aggressive than he was last year.
14:19It's just balls not going in the hoop, right?
14:22If you're looking at his completion percentage over-expected last year on vertical routes, it was plus 13.7%, which is nuts.
14:28Because those are already low percentage balls as it is.
14:31They call them 50-50 balls for a reason. So if you're hitting them at that rate, yeah, your EPA per play is
14:38going to look crazy because you're hitting a bunch of explosive plays that most teams aren't going to hit.
14:44But this year, he's negative on completion percentage over-expected on those.
14:47So he's attempting more of them, and he's worse at it, which means the offense is stalling because the run game's inconsistent.
14:53You know, weirdly enough, the best player on the offense this year has been Will Campbell, but I would say pass protection's
15:00been up and down outside of Will Campbell. And when you're not hitting those three balls, for lack of a better comparison,
15:07you kind of just don't have anything else. And they were so good at it last year that they didn't need to have anything else.
15:14It's not like they were a great yak team last year.
15:18Like you said, they were third lowest rate in missed tackles forced after the catch by their receivers last year.
15:24They're terrible at it again this year. It's just they don't have that shot down the boundary to be their comfort food.
15:30I don't know how you fix this other than just learning how to operate the offense completely differently, right?
15:36Develop a real quick game. Be able to get some yards after the catch, which is really more on the receivers than
15:43on May, but ball placement does matter for that, but you've got to break a tackle at some point.
15:48They need to go back to basics and stop just trying to trickshot their way down the field because it's not working.
15:55It hasn't looked good for the Patriots. And then really quick for Buffalo's side, Josh Allen did throw his two interceptions last week against two high safety shells.
16:03I believe it was four deep coverages on both of those interceptions from him.
16:08Essentially, it was the Chargers daring him to throw things underneath and he got a little over his skis and he threw those interceptions there.
16:15The Patriots do run two high safeties right around the middle of the pack of the NFL this season.
16:21And so they could see a decent amount of that and they could lean a little bit more into that.
16:27But man, when the Bills were able to run the ball the way that they could between the tackles last week with
16:34James Cook, you got an answer for everything. Just like you said, the Patriots have not been able to do this.
16:40The Bills looked at last week and said, All right, well, Josh Allen's really struggling to throw deep down the field.
16:46Let's run the ball. Oh, the advantage that they had doing that was amazing.
16:51So I think it's full Bills advantage for this game.
16:54If the Patriots win, it's going to take by far the best game of their season.
16:58Reaches for the goal line and he's into the end zone.
17:02The cook is in the kitchen. The Rams and the Eagles are the next game that I want to touch on here
17:08because Brett is the loser in big trouble in this game for both of these teams.
17:13Obviously, only one team can win. Technically, both teams can tie.
17:16But whoever loses this game, I think that the season's, man, taking a real bad turn for them.
17:22You basically have to win to keep pace for the one seed in the NFC.
17:26And these are two teams that want the one seed in the NFC.
17:30If the Rams start one and three, I don't know how they're going to be able to do that.
17:36When the two other teams that potentially could get the one seed are in their division, that's tough sledding.
17:42And the Eagles, they're in a fight with Dallas for this division at this point.
17:46I know Dallas hasn't exactly started off the best in the win-loss column, but just watching them using my eyeballs, I would
17:53say Dallas might be a bigger threat right now than Philly just because their offense looks so discombobulated.
17:58The throw intercepted by P.J. Edwards. So yeah, both these teams have to win this game.
18:03It feels early for a must-win. But if you're looking at the macro of the season and setting up who's winning your
18:10division, who's not winning your division, difference between a one seed and a five seed potentially, this is huge.
18:16For the Rams, I know a lot of the talk has been on the defense side of the ball, right?
18:22No Miles Garrett. Aaron Donald hasn't been the high-impact player that some people thought that he'd just be able to pop off the couch and be.
18:29I think it's going to take a little bit of time for Aaron Donald.
18:34And I just think the defensive line overall hasn't been as ferocious as it was last year, and we thought that it was going to be.
18:42But really, the major issue to me is on the offensive side.
18:45Because Stafford does not look the same specifically under pressure this season.
18:49When you look at Matthew Stafford, his numbers under pressure last year, I mean, he threw five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 86 quarterback rating.
18:56I mean, this year under pressure, he has a 28.8 quarterback rating.
18:59It is just totally different for him. And then specifically, I mean, you want to talk about, okay, well, is it a Puka Nakua thing?
19:07Is it just the fact that Nakua has not been out there?
19:11It could be a little bit of that. I mean, the on-off splits for them this year, it's a small sample size.
19:17But when Puka Nakua has been on the field, it still hasn't been great.
19:21The quarterback rating under pressure was 4.1, but Nakua has barely been out there.
19:26So I wouldn't necessarily take that too much into account.
19:29But it's last year's numbers under pressure that I think do mean a little bit more.
19:33And certainly, surprise, surprise, one of the best wide receivers in the game is out there.
19:38The quarterback plays better, I know. But when Nakua was out there on the field, when Stafford faced pressure, he still had a quarterback rating of an 83.0.
19:47And then when Nakua was off the field all of last year, that dipped to a 63.4 quarterback rating.
19:52So I think that Nakua's absence certainly means a good amount here.
19:56But it's worse than even that difference last year would have led you to believe.
20:01Stafford just is not trusting things. He is not getting the ball out when he needs to, where he needs to.
20:07And specifically for this Eagles matchup, the Eagles have generated the ninth highest pressure rate in the NFL at a 39.2.
20:13So again, you talk about this game meaning a lot to both sides.
20:17Stafford's got to look better against a team that has been able to generate pressure.
20:22Although this past weekend, the Eagles weren't really able to generate pressure because Keenan was getting the ball out of his hands
20:28in less than two and a half seconds. Stafford's much more around, you know, 2.7, 2.8.
20:33So he's not that quick with getting the ball out of his hands.
20:37But ultimately, Brett, we got to see better answers from Stafford.
20:40The MVP of last year has to be able to play better under pressure.
20:45Or I think that this game could be, again, more of a struggle than you would think for this Rams team.
20:51And, you know, you bring up those splits. And to me, that shows what a safety or rather security blanket Puka's been
20:58for him under pressure because most blitzes in the NFL are not man blitzes.
21:02They're zone blitzes, right? It's either going to be a 3-3 fire zone, three deep, three under with five rushing.
21:08Or, you know, the popular thing these days, because Brian Flores does it all the time, you call it a quarters fire zone or a palms fire zone.
21:16It's too deep. And then you still have five coming after the quarterback.
21:20We've seen teams throw six bodies at the quarterback.
21:23They faced a bunch of double mug looks against Denver, where we're just putting a bunch of guys in the line of
21:30scrimmage, and it's on you to figure out who's coming and who's going.
21:33I mean, that last pick that he threw against Hufunga, the pick six, it was a brilliantly disguised zero blitz that did not look like zero pre-snap.
21:42And so they do have to sort this out because it kind of feels like teams have figured out their protections a
21:48little bit of like, okay, they are not going to block it up with seven.
21:53They're going to block it up with five or six at most, and they're trusting their MVP quarterback to sort out the free runner.
22:00And they're saying like, hey, you have an old quarterback who we think we can outnumber in terms of number of rushers versus your protectors.
22:08He can't get away, so we know the ball has to come out quick.
22:12That's how Hufunga got the pick six is because it was a really nicely disguised zero.
22:17He knew they were going to have a free rusher.
22:20Ball's out immediately. He just steps in front of the running back.
22:23Like they have to figure out a new protection plan that involves more bodies or teams are just going to keep doing this to them.
22:31They're just going to keep blitzing him because he can't get away.
22:34And to kind of loop the Eagles back in here, I would say Hertz has the opposite problem.
22:40They've been using more bodies in protection with him because he clearly doesn't trust his protection.
22:45And so they feel like they have to make him more comfortable with extra protectors because he's not handling the pressure as
22:51well as he probably should for a quarterback as veteran as he is.
22:55And to me, that comes down to trust. All this to say, both quarterbacks have issues with pressure right now just in different kind of ways.
23:03And the quarterback that figures it out first is probably going to win this game.
23:08We did mention that this is going to be tough whichever team loses this game.
23:12But specifically for the Rams, Brett, if they lose against the Eagles this week, they're 1-3 on the season to start.
23:18They then play Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills the next week.
23:22Obviously very tough. Then they have a stretch of the Cardinals, the Raiders, the Chargers, the Commanders, and the Cardinals again.
23:29I mentioned a couple of those teams playing way better than we thought that they were going to this season.
23:35You might have to go 4-1 at worst during that stretch because then you have your bye week in Week 11 if you're the Rams.
23:42But then it goes Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Seattle.
23:47I know we talked about the one seed. If you lose this game, you're putting so much pressure on yourself in that
23:53five-game stretch from the Cardinals to the Cardinals right in between those games.
23:57I mean, you almost have to go 5-0, which is a very, very, very tough thing to tell yourself you have to
24:04do even for a team that's as talented as the Rams.
24:07So for the Super Bowl favorites, I don't want to say they're in trouble early, but they got to pick it up
24:14or they might be looking at not just not getting the one seed.
24:18Are they the Super Bowl favorites still? No, I'm saying the Super Bowl favorites going into the season.
24:23Like by far, everybody would have. No, no, no, no, no.
24:27No, I think that there are many other teams that are now in that conversation.
24:31But going into the year, you'd be hard-pressed to find really anybody that was betting against the Rams this year.
24:37The most important intent is just making sure we educate our players on how it's being officiated so there's clarity of how
24:44we can coach them to play technique and fundamentally through the cycle of the snap.
24:48And so that's kind of where we're at with that.
24:51All right, before we get to our next game, we're going to do a blind resume real quick.
24:57I want you guys at home to also play along with us.
25:00This is a new game we're trying out here.
25:03Trevor, are you ready to identify the team based on the blind resume that I give you?
25:08I feel like I should have had something to actually cover my eyes for the visual here for the blind resume.
25:15But yes, I am ready. Let's do it. Let's go.
25:18Yeah, we'll get NFL Pro branded blindfolds for next time.
25:21So here's your resume. Third in explosive pass rate.
25:23Fourth in 12 personnel usage. First in yards before contact.
25:26This is all one team with these three stats together.
25:29Your choices. The Ravens. The Bills. The Chiefs. Yards before contact?
25:33Kenneth Walker's forced a ton of... Kenneth Walker's forced a ton of missed tackles, but like...
25:38If you could do that after the fact as well, it doesn't have to be right at the line.
25:43Oh man, these are like three of the teams I would have thought of here.
25:48I'm gonna go with the Chiefs. I'm gonna go with the Chiefs here for this one.
25:53Finally! Callie got you and not me. Dang it!
25:55That is wrong. Who was it? The answer is...
25:58The Baltimore Ravens. Ah, man. You hate to see it.
26:01You hate to see it. No, I'm just kidding.
26:04Baltimore fans love to see it. I actually love to see this.
26:07It's about time somebody else got something wrong. Ah, man.
26:10All right, the streak is over. Streak is over.
26:13I was 3-0 on our researcher, Callie, and she got me here.
26:17So the streak resets here. Okay, here is your question for Blind Resume.
26:21This team, this mystery team, fourth in time to pressure, third in overall offensive success, first in tackling efficiency.
26:26Okay? So the 49ers, the Buffalo Bills, or the Detroit Lions.
26:30So once again, fourth in time to pressure, third in overall offensive success, first in tackling efficiency.
26:35I feel like the Bills game disqualifies the Lions immediately as far as tackling efficiency.
26:39I would not have gotten this answer. Oh, Callie, you're killing me.
26:43Give me the teams again. The Niners, the Bills, and the Lions.
26:47See, now I think it might be the Lions because she knows that I wouldn't think it's the Lions.
26:52It's the game within the game. It's the mental game.
26:55Now he's no longer thinking about the statistics. Now he's thinking about the interactions personally that he has had over the last
27:02couple of weeks as we've been doing our show prep and gathering notes.
27:06It's like poker, man. You're playing the players. You're not playing the cards.
27:10You are. You're playing the players here. Yeah. Give me the Lions?
27:13It is the Lions. Yes! Yes! Finally! Finally! Oh my God!
27:17It is the Lions. And honestly, man, that's why I said I would not have gotten this one.
27:22I would not have gotten this answer. I would have disqualified the Lions right off the bat.
27:27They're giving up the most passing yards per game, which I would have thought that their secondary would have been terrible at tackling to, again, disqualify them completely.
27:36But good on you, man. Good on you for recognizing the trap.
27:39That's tough to do. Well done, my friend. Well done.
27:42All I have to do is just recognize the bait.
27:45If it's too easy, that means it's actually correct.
27:48I may not know the teams, but I know when somebody's trying to get in my head.
27:53Chiefs and the Raiders. I do want to touch on these two teams because, hey, 3-0, 3-0, undefeated versus undefeated, baby.
28:00Who thought that this was going to happen here in week four?
28:03It's a very intriguing matchup for a lot of reasons.
28:06I think the Chiefs could have expected they'd be in this spot.
28:10Not a lot of people expected the Raiders to be.
28:13So where do you want to start with this game preview?
28:16Let's just keep it with the theme of the day.
28:19Special teams, right? This is a matchup between two really good special teams units.
28:23Average starting field position for the Raiders, again, best in the NFL so far this year at the 39.9 yard line.
28:30So they're starting drives basically at midfield. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are starting drives at the 32, which is still 11th best.
28:36So their return unit's also really good. And they are plus 2.7 EPA on special teams, which is also 11th best.
28:42So the hidden yardage advantage that the Raiders have had so far this season might be dialed back a bit in this
28:49one, which then puts more pressure on Cousins and Bowers and Gentey and all these guys to kind of make up that
28:56difference and get the real yards instead of the hidden yards.
28:59The question I have is, can they do that against a resurgent Chiefs defense that has a bunch of DBs that are
29:06playing out of their mind and have not one, not two, but three corners that could match up on Brock Bowers and potentially do some damage?
29:14Yeah. Bowers. I mean, you talk about the things that are going well for the Raiders.
29:18You figured that Brock Bowers was going to be one of them.
29:22He absolutely is. I just wanted to kind of put it into context how well he is playing right now.
29:28When we talk about Bowers versus other tight ends, his plus 0.25 EPA per route run is the sixth most in the
29:35NFL and it's the most amongst all tight ends with a minimum of 20 routes this season.
29:40And his 0.66 EPA per target, seventh most amongst tight ends with a minimum of five targets.
29:45But just to quantify sort of how good Brock Bowers is, not just against tight ends, but against all of these top
29:52receiving options in the NFL, you look at his EPA per play when he is on the field.
29:57So we're looking at splits on and off the field.
30:00When you look at when he is on, the only other wide receiver that has a higher EPA per play when he
30:07is on the field is CeeDee Lamb. Brock Bowers is 0.10 EPA per play when he is on the field is higher than Jackson Smith and Jigba.
30:15It's higher than Tee Higgins. It's higher than Jamar Chase.
30:18Now the differential of on-off splits is a little bit lower than a couple of those other guys, but he's right there in that category.
30:25And that's been huge, obviously for the Raiders this season.
30:28And he's sort of been Kirk Cousins' best friend throughout the year when he has been out there.
30:34But I think that you are right. I think that the Chiefs have a unique ability, not only in their players, but
30:40also in their coach to get creative with how they match up against Bowers.
30:45You talked about this, how Bowers is a tight end basically only by name.
30:49He is a wide receiver. He is running routes from the slot.
30:52He is running routes from out wide. He is a wide receiver.
30:56And so with that, why bother putting a linebacker against him?
30:59Why bother putting a safety against Brock Bowers? He's not a tight end.
31:03There's no reason to line up a linebacker and a safety, which often gives Brock Bowers that advantage when teams try to do that.
31:11He's a wide receiver. Pull a Jerry Sneed on him.
31:14Put Noel Williams on him, right? I mean, like just put a corner.
31:17Put Delaney on him. Any of them. Put a corner on Brock Bowers.
31:21And I think that Steve Spagnuolo is going to say, hell yeah, I'm going to do that.
31:27So I think obviously he's going to mean the world if Brock Bowers doesn't have a big day.
31:32I'm not so sure that the Raiders can keep up with the Chiefs.
31:36And I think that that's how Kansas City is actually going to try to neutralize him.
31:41Yeah, he had 33 routes last week. 25 of them were in the slot or out wide, which is just a wide receiver number.
31:48If you're looking at how often he was detached from the formation, this is per NextGenStats, 74.0% of his snaps, up from
31:5553.2% last year when they at least kind of pretended he was a tight end.
31:59They're not even doing that anymore. He was aligned out wide or in the slot on all of his receptions.
32:05And Vegas head coach Clint Kubiak has not deployed a quote-unquote tight end detached from the formation on at least 50% of
32:12his snaps as an offensive coordinator or head coach before Bowers.
32:15It's the first time he's ever done it. So he's not a tight end.
32:19And the thing that I am fascinated by is when his eventual contract extension comes up, is he going to allow himself
32:26to be paid like a tight end? Because I wouldn't if I was him as an agent.
32:31No, no, no. They're absolutely... Now, remember, was Jimmy Graham kind of the first most notable headline-y one?
32:37Jimmy Graham led the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and was about to hit the market, but the Saints want to keep him.
32:44And they're expected to use their franchise tag on the fourth-year pro.
32:48Graham took to Twitter and said, confirming it's officially Franchise Friday.
32:51Tag. I guess I'm it. It was back in 2014.
32:54There was an argument over the franchise tag, and they had an independent arbiter that ruled he was a tight end based
33:01on percentage of snaps in line versus outwiden in the slot.
33:04And it was a lot closer to 50-50. It's not 50-50 in Vegas.
33:08It's 74%. So he's basically being used the same way that Puka is in Sean McVay's wildest dreams.
33:13That's a receiver. Like, his contract, if he gets franchise tag, I would bet they're going to argue it says a receiver.
33:20But when he does get his extension, he's not going to be scaling off Trey McBride.
33:25He's going to be scaling off Jamar Chase. I agree.
33:28I agree. On the Chiefs side of things, before we move on here, a team that's top three in total EPA earned this season.
33:35Big reason why is because of how balanced they can be with Patrick Mahomes and then obviously Kenneth Walker.
33:41But what do you think about Kenneth Walker's matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this week?
33:46He's got 41 missed tackles for so far this year.
33:49It's 12 more than the next closest player, which is absurd.
33:52The key for this matchup to me is just can the Raiders continue being as good at tackling as they have been so far this year?
34:00And they were quietly a very good run defense last year.
34:03It's just the volume stats made them look worse than they actually were.
34:07Efficiency-wise, they were a very good run defense. But if you're looking at their missed tackle rate as a defense, they're at
34:1412.5%, which is 13th lowest in the NFL. So slightly above average.
34:17That's better than the 13.9% they had last year.
34:20So they're even better at tackling than they were before.
34:23Five yards allowed per missed tackle, which is 10th fewest.
34:26They were at 5.3 last season. So even when they miss, there's always somebody else there to rally and finish the job.
34:33And they have 10. Is this a real number?
34:3510 forced fumbles? We're three weeks into the year.
34:38I thought I misread that. Get after it, baby.
34:41Punch the ball. What the hell? Create turnovers. Name of the game.
34:44We've been talking about it all year. How do you get the little advantages?
34:4910 forced fumbles. But that's a team that is just flying around trying to make plays, man.
34:54And I think that, look, I'll be up front.
34:56I'm not picking the Raiders in this game. However, I love what they're doing.
35:01I love what John Spitek has done. I love very clearly the culture that Clint Kubiak has established within that locker room
35:07and within that team early on to where you've even got young guys flying around believing that they can make plays at the highest level.
35:15So you better believe that if they do win this game against the Chiefs, I cannot wait to talk about this team
35:22and give them their flowers in the reaction show that you guys can see next Monday.
35:26So, again, I'm not quite picking the Raiders. I am picking the Chiefs in this game.
35:31But, man, if they're able to take down the Chiefs and they look good, this is a story that we are going
35:38to have to continue to tell through a megaphone now at this point if they become 4-0.
35:43That's what resilience looks like, okay? That's you guys believing in each other, okay?
35:47Never say and die, okay? And fight until the very end.
35:50Say, so proud of you. So proud of the effort.
35:54I'm not surprised, though. I'm not surprised by how that turned out.
35:57One last note here. Did you see the video that the Chiefs posted of Kenneth Walker in his run last week where
36:04he did, like, a frame-perfect parry, if you're a fan of fighting video games, where a Dolphins player came in and perfectly
36:10peanut-punched the ball, and he just went, goosh, and just blocked it.
36:14Like, he just secured the ball, like, fractions of a second.
36:17He's like, nope, my ball, and just kept going.
36:20Unreal, dude. Like, he is just on a different planet right now.
36:24You know what that stems from? When you're in high school, you're walking around from class to class holding the football.
36:30And everybody's just on it. Fundamentals. That's where that begins, baby.
36:33What a burst. Incredible torque. Finds 22 yards, and he takes the ball to the 47 of the Chiefs.
36:39For Broncos 49ers. Brett, it unfortunately feels like it's just another season for the Niners when it comes to injuries.
36:45They're just racking up so many guys that are either hitting IR, short-term, long-term.
36:49This depth chart looks so different than what it was even four weeks ago right before the season.
36:55But the fact of the matter is, it doesn't matter.
36:58Because Brock Purdy is playing that well. He is playing at an elite level, and he is giving them a chance no
37:04matter who is on the offensive line, no matter who he is throwing the ball to, no matter what their defense looks
37:11like, no matter what country the game is being played in, Brock Purdy is giving them a chance to beat any opponent at any given time.
37:19He is playing the position about as well as you can for a player who has his skill set.
37:25He's been unbelievable. I've mentioned some incredible football players so far that should be on the MVP ballot.
37:30Josh Allen, Lamar, Kenneth Walker. I would put Brock Purdy at the very top.
37:34If I had to give an MVP after three weeks, he has been sensational in almost every single way.
37:40If you're looking at his career success rates at 52.6%, that leads every quarterback in the NFL since he got in the league in 2023.
37:48Not so irrelevant, after all, I guess. He's the only quarterback, by the way, in that time span with multiple seasons of 50% or higher.
37:55This year, he's at 64% success rate. For people that don't know what that is, it's essentially a metric that tracks how on schedule your offense is.
38:03If it's first and 10, if your offense gains four yards, that's considered a successful play.
38:08You get to second and six. If you gain three yards, that's considered a successful play because it just sets up third and short.
38:15Just can you stay ahead of the sticks? Can you stay on schedule?
38:1964% of the time, that's what he's doing, which is just unreasonable as a metric.
38:24Nobody does that in the modern NFL. If you're looking at how that translates into scoring drive success, the Niners offense has
38:30scored touchdowns on 48.1% of their drives this year, easily highest in the NFL.
38:35That's highest through the first three weeks in the season since at least the year 2000.
38:39They didn't start tracking it before then. It might be the best ever.
38:43We don't know. But at least in the best in recent history, this is the most effective offense Kyle Shanahan's ever had.
38:50And Kyle Shanahan's coordinated some of the best offenses ever, right?
38:53You look at the 2016 Falcons. You look at the late 2000s Texans.
38:57You're just looking at some of the other 49ers offenses that he's led.
39:01There's nothing that's ever been this good. Ever. Like, we don't have a comparison for this.
39:06That is how dominant Purdy has been and how in the zone Kyle Shanahan has been.
39:11Yeah, I'm going to run through some numbers really quick just to quantify exactly what you're talking about.
39:16Brock Purdy versus zone this season. Completion percentage, fourth highest in the NFL.
39:20Yards per attempt, also fourth highest. EPA per dropback, most in the NFL.
39:24All right, what about in the intermediate area? Completion percentage, third highest.
39:28Yards per attempt, second highest. EPA per dropback, oh, once again, most in the NFL.
39:32And then over the middle of the field where he has been so fantastic.
39:36Completion percentage, seventh highest. Yards per attempt, fifth highest.
39:39EPA per dropback, sixth most. 152 total yards over the middle of the field.
39:43Most in the NFL. They said he couldn't do it.
39:46They said he was too short. They said he couldn't see over the middle of the field.
39:52But I think that, you know, a little bit tongue-in-cheek there.
39:55But I think that goes into something that Brock Purdy said himself on a podcast where he said, Hey man, look, in
40:01the NFL, like I've talked to Kyle Shanahan about this.
40:04Because 40% of the throws that you have, you're not going to be able to see when guys are open.
40:11You're throwing to a spot. You're throwing to a zone.
40:14You got to have that much confidence in what you are seeing.
40:17And the confidence works both ways. Because Kyle Shanahan also said recently that he compared the confidence that he has in Brock Purdy to Matt Ryan in 2016.
40:26That MVP caliber season from Matt Ryan. That's the comfort level that we're talking about.
40:30So we've gushed over Brock Purdy a little bit here.
40:33But there's another quarterback on the other side in Bo Nix who also has the ability to play the position at a high level.
40:40But do you think from what we've seen from Nix over the first couple of weeks, you have faith in him keeping
40:47up with Purdy and ending up winning this game?
40:50What do you think? Well, that's the issue, right, is the keeping up.
40:54I think if this is a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, let's just say it's one possession.
40:59Because the Broncos defense, you know, steps up to the challenge and holds this incredible Niners offense down at least a little bit.
41:06If this is a one-possession game, yeah, Bo Nix can win it.
41:10And we've seen him do that over and over and over again.
41:13Look at the Eagles game last year. Look at the Giants game last year.
41:17Look at the Rams game. If the game is close in the fourth quarter and you just need him to put together
41:24one drive, he can put together that one drive.
41:27The problem is if the game's already out of reach because of how he plays in the first three quarters, I have
41:33pretty big worries that he's going to be able to dig them out of the hole that he creates.
41:39And the 30-point second-half explosion. Why can't we do this in the first half?
41:43If you're looking at just the first three quarters from that Sunday night game against the Rams, his yards per attempt was 3.9.
41:50The fourth quarter was 9.9. But even if you're just looking at completions on attempts, he was only 4 of 9 in that quarter.
41:58Like, he completed less than 50% of his passes.
42:00It's just he had a 9.9 yards per attempt because he got 60 yards on back-to-back throws on that last drive because
42:07the Rams blew two coverages in a row. So if the Rams don't blow those coverages, do they even get into the
42:14red zone with those controversial penalties in the first place?
42:17I'm not sure they do because of what he played like in the 50 minutes leading up to that moment.
42:23And I just, I don't have faith that he's going to keep up with Purdy right now.
42:28And I know Broncos fans would be like, well, he had two touchdown drives in the third quarter.
42:33Yeah, one of them they started at midfield and they ran the ball to the red zone.
42:38I'm giving credit to the offensive line. I'm giving credit to the run game.
42:43But it's not like Bo was the one that was carrying the team on his back there until those two throws against like literally broken coverages.
42:50You can look at it on tape. So I'm not saying Bo Nix is a bad quarterback.
42:56That's not the point of this segment. What I'm saying is he can't play like a bad quarterback for 45 to 50
43:02minutes and try to keep up with the guy who might be the MVP frontrunner.
43:07Like you have to do that the entire game.
43:09You have to go blow for blow. You can't just let him stack touchdowns on you because eventually you're going to be
43:16down by 20 points and it's going to look like the Chiefs game from week one where you're just kind of waiting
43:23for it to happen and it never did. And they just got blown out and embarrassed on national TV.
43:28So he has to play good from the first quarter on.
43:32He cannot save it for the fourth quarter. Not against an opponent like this one.
43:36Here's what has to happen. We have to continue to tread in the right way.
43:41All right? But I'm proud of every one of you.
43:44Jags-Bengals, last game that we're going to talk about here today.
43:47And it's also a matchup of two great offenses, great quarterbacks.
43:50And I'm specifically looking to see what Trevor Lawrence is going to be like in this game.
43:56Because through the first three weeks of the season, man, he's been excellent against zone.
44:00Every time that a team has played zone coverage against him, you talk about quarterbacks that are confident right now.
44:06Trevor Lawrence believes he can make any throw in the world.
44:09And he's showcasing it, especially in the red zone, man.
44:12When things are at a premium, when space is at a premium, I mean, he only seems to play better, which a quarterback does that.
44:20It's pretty incredible. The Bengals, though, they play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL this season.
44:26So is this game maybe going to be a little bit harder for Trevor Lawrence?
44:31Because if you go back to that week two game against the Broncos, it was the second half of that game when
44:37the Broncos switched more to man coverage in which Lawrence started to struggle.
44:41Now, it's still been good for him. 0.18 EPA per drop back against man.
44:450.25 EPA per drop back against zone. So it's not like he has a negative EPA per play.
44:51He's still a great quarterback against man coverage. It's just looked a little bit different.
44:55Now, on the flip side, go back to last week, Aaron Rodgers tore this defense up.
45:00Aaron Rodgers versus the Bengals. Man coverage. 8 for 15, 149 passing yards, two touchdowns, 0.54 EPA per drop back.
45:06And we highlighted this in the reaction show. Aaron Rodgers was able to hang on to the ball for a while and
45:13actually make a lot of these plays happen as well.
45:16So what matters more here? The fact that Lawrence hasn't been as good against man coverage?
45:21Or is it the fact that, sure, the Bengals play it, but they've given up a lot of explosive plays this season and Aaron Rodgers carved them up?
45:29I'm not sure. And I think that's going to go a long way into determining who has the most points when this one's all done.
45:37I'm looking for a bounce back game from Lawrence.
45:39The Clemson one, the other Clemson one, Dexter Lawrence.
45:42Sorry, I've been saving that for years for them to match up.
45:46It's about time to get it. No, that was good.
45:49I didn't know where you were going there, but that was good.
45:52He kind of got his ass kicked against Pittsburgh last week.
45:56I'm not going to lie. How did he get his ass kicked or did they just have a good plan for him?
46:02First of all, I'm not convinced the lifting of the leg thing was legal, but it was genius.
46:08So bonus points for that. However, that's not even really the play that I'm talking about.
46:12If you're looking at that big Jalen Warren run, they scoop blocked Dexter Lawrence and just ran it right at him.
46:19This left side of the Steelers line did really well against Dexter Lawrence.
46:23And so I'm a little bit not worried. I'm curious to see if he bounces back in this one because the left
46:29side of the Jags line is also pretty good, right?
46:32Emmanuel Pregnant has been a wall for them at left guard.
46:36Harrison, we know, is a really talented tackle. And then you got Nate Borkutcher, right?
46:40Rookie tight end who, let's say his selection was controversial at the time.
46:44And we'll leave it at that. No, you can say it from yours truly.
46:48My face is the poster boy for me being skeptical of how early they went with this Nate Borkutcher selection.
46:54But hey, this is identifying the talent and recognizing where it could fit on your roster.
46:59And I even said afterwards, like, look, I think that they picked him way too early.
47:04I think that they could have got him later.
47:07I question the overall draft strategy with it, but how they're deploying him, what it means, and how it is making this
47:13run game and this trenches better for the Jags.
47:16It looks awesome early on. For them to already have these returns for him, however highly you wanted to draft him, you
47:23have to feel good about what he is doing early on because you are right.
47:27It's changing their power run game. It is changing, I guess, beyond power run game.
47:32It's changing the dynamics of what they want to do on the trenches in the blocking game entirely.
47:37And I think that that's been incredibly valuable for them early on this season.
47:41And, you know, when you put him next to Harrison, next to Pregdon, that left side, it just caves people in.
47:48This is actually kind of the matchup between two teams that love blocking tight ends the most.
47:53They're two of the top three teams in terms of 12 personnel usage in the league.
47:58Jags use it 31% of the time. Cincy uses it 38.2% of the time.
48:02So blocking tight ends galore in this one. And Dexter Lawrence has to bounce back from last week because when they put
48:09him on that side, they are trusting him to really just make the math be in their favor against a talented left side of this Jags offense.
48:17He's got to do it. Here we go, everybody.
48:19It's time for our week four game picks here.
48:22Trevor and Brett, once again, picking the 10 most interesting games, the games we are most compelled by in this week's slate,
48:29and not only picking the winner, but ranking them in terms of confidence.
48:33So if you've been following along for a while, you know the drill.
48:37But if you're new here, what we do is we take these 10 games and we order them in confidence rankings.
48:43So the team that we have at the number 10 spot, that means that we are getting 10 points if we get that game right.
48:51In the 9th spot, you get 9 points if you get it right.
48:548 spot, 8, and so on and so forth.
48:57We'll kind of preview these games as we go along.
49:00And we've been keeping score all season long. Brett, would you like to know what your score was from week three and then also your season total here?
49:09How do you think you did? Dude, I think I got demolished.
49:12I'm not going to lie. I had a bad week three.
49:16I think everybody had a bad week three other than the people in the comments.
49:20They kind of smoked me. We'll talk about the people in the comments who we love that you guys are getting involved in this as well.
49:28We'll shout a couple of you out in a couple of minutes.
49:32But you did lose your number 10 confidence game, your most confident game, because you picked the Bengals over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
49:38But all in all, you got 33 points last week, which brings your season total to 111.
49:43I don't know how I did, but I do know that I picked the Buccaneers to win and they did not.
49:50So I know that we lost that one right off of the bat.
49:54But give me the bad news. Tell me how it was.
49:57So you came into the week one point behind me in total.
50:01Yeah. You got 34, which means your season total is 111.
50:04We are dead even. You love that parody. You love that parody.
50:07I mean, we're just simply matching what the NFL season is giving us, right?
50:12Because we had the most one score games in a Sunday slate that we've had over the last 20 years this past week.
50:19So we're right on par with the 2026 NFL season.
50:22Okay. Tied up. Oh man, that just makes, that makes this game pick even better.
50:26Shout out to some of you guys who are getting in on the games as well.
50:31We absolutely love this. You guys are firing it off in the comments where you're taking the 10 games that we have.
50:38You're ordering them and you're picking them as well.
50:40Three people that we got a shout out right off the top of the show.
50:45So Iber Condrell, I think is how you say this 46 points for their game picks last week.
50:50They only missed one game. And the one game that they missed was the Bengals.
50:55They also took the Bengals over the Steelers. Quasar, who we also shouted out last week, by the way, 45 points again last week as well.
51:03So they are on a roll tablet brothers, 44 points.
51:06That was some of the highest scores of any of the entries that we had.
51:10Last week. And by the way, these top three that we just named there, they were the only fans to pick three of the four upset winners.
51:18So the Steelers, the Colts, the Broncos, and the Raiders, they at least had three out of four, some combination of those four teams.
51:26So shout out to you guys. And again, if you want to get in on the game here with us, do so
51:32in the comment section, listen to the 10 games that we have here this week, and give us your picks and in the confidence rankings.
51:40So we can keep, we can keep your scores as well as ours.
51:44Brett. I don't know why the NFL is paying us to do this.
51:48They should just have them do it. Dude, don't say that out loud.
51:52Come on, come on, come on. The mortgage brother.
51:54Roger. We should get Rogers out here as well.
51:57not even say it. Okay. The first game that I want to highlight.
52:01Jacksonville versus Cincinnati. This is a tough one, man.
52:04Is it two teams that can light up a scoreboard, but what are we thinking here?
52:08Who you taking and where is it in your confidence rankings?
52:12So Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind so far this season.
52:16So I am taking Jacksonville to win this game.
52:18I did put it up my three spot. It's mainly because I can't figure out what Cincinnati is right now.
52:24If you take out the special teams errors, would they have beat the Steelers last week?
52:29I, I think it's a strong possibility, but the special teams are what the special teams are.
52:34If you're looking at special teams, EPA per play, they're second worst in the NFL so far this season, giving up a
52:41lot of explosive plays through the air. Also, you know, the Steelers just kind of ran right at Dexter Lawrence last week.
52:48The left side of the Jags line is pretty good.
52:51I, I just don't feel good about the Bengals in this one, which of course means they're going to win, but I'm
52:57picking Jacksonville to take this one at my three spot.
53:00I'm also taking Jacksonville, but because of the uncertainty of both of these offenses, being able to light it up at any
53:07point in time, this is only in the one spot for me.
53:11So I'm going to take the Jags too, but this is all the way down to the bottom of my list.
53:17An interesting point for this game is that Trevor Lawrence has been tearing it up specifically against zone coverage.
53:23He's been great against man as well, but he's specifically been phenomenal at attacking zone coverages, man.
53:28He's gotten a little bit more trouble with, you know, you look at the second half of that Denver Broncos game, he
53:34struggled and they switched to play a lot more man.
53:37So it was just a different look. The Bengals play man coverage at a top eight rate in the NFL so far this season.
53:45So they could sort of lean into what Lawrence hasn't been as stellar at this season.
53:49However, Aaron Rodgers just absolutely lit up this Bengals defense last week, playing a lot of that single high cover one, cover three stuff.
53:57So the tape is out there on how you beat it.
54:00And I got a lot of faith in this coaching staff.
54:03So I'm taking the Jags here in this one.
54:06Dallas Cowboys coming back stateside. to take on your Houston Texans.
54:09What do we think about this one? So three weeks in a row, I've picked the Texans and put it at the one spot.
54:17I don't know how I can have any confidence in this team at this point.
54:21So I'm going Dallas. I'm putting it at the four spot.
54:24All right. There's just so, there's so many problems with the Texans right now.
54:29None of them are CJ Stroud, by the way, I do want to reiterate that he has had a nice year, but
54:35they have had problems up front, especially trying to run the ball.
54:39That has cropped up, popped up again this year.
54:42You know, defense, it's just been very inconsistent, more inconsistent than I expected from them so far this year.
54:47Like Will Anderson had a whale of a game, and it still just didn't feel like it mattered that much because when
54:54they really needed this defense to step up, you're giving up 20 yards.
54:58Laquan Treadwell sets up game winning field goal. So I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Texans right now.
55:05So I'm going Dallas who also has their own issues, but less issues than Houston.
55:09Yeah. Without an Eagle Collins and obviously, you know, Jaden Higgins as well with his long-term injury, this team sort of struggled
55:16to, I mean, CJ Stroud said it in the presser after the game.
55:20He's like, we weren't aggressive. We didn't push the ball the way that we needed to.
55:25They're bad in short yardage situations on the ground.
55:27Like you mentioned, I mean, those third and short fourth and short situations.
55:31I mean, this team is just not reliable right now with converting a lot of those things.
55:36And so the easy stuff seems harder and the more difficult stuff just doesn't seem feasible with the current health of that roster right now.
55:44So it's tough for me, even with Houston's defense and all the potential it still has.
55:49It's tough for me to think about this team outscoring a Cowboys offense that I think is just only getting better.
55:55And we saw them really start to catch fire in Brazil last week.
55:59I know they didn't win the game, but certainly the offense did what they needed to do to have a chance to
56:06win it at the end, score a touchdown and take care of it right there in regulation or kick the field goal.
56:12And they thought that they were going to head to overtime.
56:15And obviously they didn't because of the defensive blunder there.
56:19I'm also taking the Dallas Cowboys, but I'm putting that at my five spot here.
56:23So pretty close to where you have it at.
56:26We've got the same team winning this game, but I'm going to take that at the five spot about the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers.
56:34Niners just keep racking up injuries as it unfortunately feels like they always do.
56:38And it continues to not matter. This team is still executing at extremely high level and the Broncos where they can play
56:45a very high level of football at some points, they can flip the switch very quickly and it can all not look great.
56:52Just such a high variance team right now. So we take it in this one and where are you putting in the confidence ranking?
56:59So I'm taking San Francisco to win this game.
57:02Injuries be damned. All right. Is it weird that I put it at the seven spot?
57:06Like I'm actually really confident in this. Cause I just look at how Brock Purdy is playing.
57:12I compare that to how Bo Nix is playing.
57:14You're asking Bo Nix to keep up with who I believe is the MVP front runner right now in Brock Purdy.
57:21Can you go drive for drive with this offense?
57:23This offense that has put up touchdown drives at a rate higher than every other team in every other season in the
57:30first three weeks of a year since at least 2000.
57:33It is absurd what they're doing right now. It is historic what they're doing right now.
57:38And Bo Nix, God bless him for the fourth quarters that he's had.
57:42Quarters one through three still matter a lot. And he's been objectively bad in quarters one through three.
57:47And I feel like even with good fourth quarters, the gap between these two quarterbacks is going to be so big that
57:54I don't think Denver is going to be able to overcome that.
57:57So give me San Francisco at the seventh spot.
58:00I'll be different than you here. I'll, I'll take the Denver Broncos and it's super high variance.
58:05Like I said, but the highs for this Denver team are really good.
58:09You know, again, you talk about a team that was toe to toe with the Jags who I feel like are one
58:16of the better teams in the NFL. And they even were able to adjust in the second half and best that team.
58:22And I think there's a world where they could give Purdy some fits.
58:26And I think that the Broncos play man coverage, not only at a higher rate, but I think they play coverage better
58:33than most teams that like to do it on a regular basis.
58:37Obviously having Patrick Shirtan really helps you in that regard.
58:40But I also look at the player that Talanova Hufanga is and, and sort of, we saw that this past week and
58:46how great that he was in sort of that Rover role where he's over the middle of the field.
58:52I mean, Purdy loves to attack over the middle of the field.
58:56And I think the Broncos are going to try to set up their defense to where they're giving Hufanga the ability to
59:02really close in on a lot of those in breaking routes that over the middle stuff.
59:07So I think a lot of the numbers so far would tell you to pick San Francisco.
59:12So I certainly don't fault you for it, but I think Denver's defense is uniquely built to frustrate Purdy more than these
59:19other teams have been able to, to start the year.
59:22So as long as Bo gives us the up, we can get, we can have a little bit of the down, but
59:29as long as he gives you the up, I think they got a chance to win this game.
59:34So I'll take the Denver Broncos here at my four spot for this one, the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Chargers thoughts, opinions.
59:41Where are we going? If the Chargers win this game, I'll be stunned.
59:45Me too. Cause I have it at the 10 spot for Seattle winning.
59:49I put it, I put it at nine, Seattle winning at the nine, like, which might surprise people that I have something even higher than that.
59:57But like, is there anything, literally anything that the Chargers do better than Seattle at all?
60:02I don't think there is. No, no, I'm, I'm, I'm with you.
60:05And you look at last week's game where Seattle loses.
60:08And we talked about it in the review show, how turnovers meant everything in that game, right?
60:14They turn the ball over three times. Washington scores touchdowns on all three turnovers.
60:18And they still only won that game by two points.
60:21You know, Jack Smith and Jigba still goes off.
60:23Sam Donald almost has 400 yards passing. I think that we saw in that game, you know, okay, this is going to
60:30be a little bit different with us not having Kenneth Walker here.
60:34If you're on the Seattle Seahawks side of things, but it's so hard to watch the Chargers, especially on offense and how much Herbert has really struggled.
60:42It would, I think this goes without saying it would have to be by far the best game of Justin Herbert's season
60:48for them to keep this close, let alone upset Seattle in this one.
60:52So I had the Seattle Seahawks at the 10 spot because where I think some teams, you know, might have viewed the
60:59Chargers at this point coming off of licking their wounds a little bit as like a trap game, maybe ease up on it a little bit.
61:07The Chargers aren't really what we thought they were going to be going in the season.
61:12A Mike McDonald team is not going to do that, especially coming off of a loss.
61:17So I got a lot of faith in them.
61:19Obviously I got that at the 10 spot. What about the chiefs and the Raiders?
61:24Three and overs to three and oh, by the way.
61:27So I went the chiefs with this one. I put it at the five spots.
61:31Okay. Like dead in the middle. Cause I wasn't a hundred percent sure about it, but I feel pretty confident in it.
61:38So I put it in confidence rankings. You know, if there's one thing that the Raiders have been good at the last
61:45season, plus three weeks, it's been their run defense.
61:47And if there's one thing that chiefs have really leaned on so far this season, it's been their rushing offense.
61:53Kenneth Walker has been amazing. If the Raiders have a good day, just even remotely containing Kenneth Walker and, you know, forcing
62:00the chiefs back into being that one dimensional pass heavy team that they were the last couple of years without really having
62:07a dynamic receiver, uh, to speak of. I don't think where she rice counts.
62:11Like I'm talking like down in the field receiver.
62:14Yeah. You know, if, if we get them into that one dimensional mode where it's explosives through yak or nothing can, can the chiefs still win this game?
62:22And I'm, I hesitate with it. So I put it at the five spot.
62:26I think it's more likely than not that Kansas city wins, but like, would it shock you if Vegas does for me?
62:33Not really. I have the chiefs winning and I have this at the ninth spot.
62:37And I think, wow. Okay. So it would shock you.
62:40It's, it's, it feels a little disrespectful to how the Raiders have started the year, but because I don't want to take
62:47credit away from how well the Raiders are playing.
62:50I just still view this as a little bit of a different tier.
62:54The chiefs are top three in the NFL in total EPA per play and just, well, total EPA.
62:59And I believe EPA per play as well. If not top three, I believe they're top five in both of those categories.
63:06The offense is just a well-oiled machine right now.
63:08You mentioned what Kenneth Walker has meant to this team, but it's more complimentary for the chiefs than it ever has been.
63:15And I think that that really matters here and how they're probably going to put a lot of stress on young defenders
63:22for the Raiders who are playing well. I want to be clear, but again, I think that there's levels to this and
63:28where I think they're a lot closer to what Kansas city has been in years past, the way that Kansas city is
63:35currently operating, especially because when you look at Steve Spagnuolo, I think he's going to have something up his sleeve for how
63:42you slow down this Raiders offense, which has been methodical.
63:45And I think that Kirk's done a really great job.
63:48Brock Bowers has been awesome when he has been out there, especially last week when he was the focal point of that passing game.
63:55But you and I've talked about this, like they might just use luxurious need one-on-one against Brock Bowers.
64:00And like Brock will still get his, but I don't think it'll be as easy as it's been in weeks past.
64:07So I think it'll be a fun game. I really do.
64:10But I've just got so much faith in the chiefs when it comes to how they have moved the ball, how they
64:17have scored points, how repeatable and how explosive it is both in the passing game and the ground game.
64:22I just think they're going to end up with more points in this game, even if it's a better football competition between
64:29the two than it has been in years past.
64:32So I'm taking the chiefs here and I got them at the nine spot, Buffalo and new England.
64:37Where'd you got this game? So this is my tenor.
64:40I put the bills at 10 over now. All right.
64:43All right. How can you watch Drake may this season and think they're going to win this game?
64:49I, I, I have zero confidence in this team.
64:51It's not, it's not really an indictment on their defense.
64:54It's not an indictment on their offensive line. Like Will Campbell has been playing like the best Patriots offensive player who saw
65:01that coming after, you know, the home stretch last year when he was playing banged up, but it's true.
65:07Like he has been playing really well, but this is a quarterback league, whether we like it or not.
65:12Like, yes, it's 22 on 22, but nobody has a bigger effect on whether or not your team wins or loses in the quarterback.
65:20And Buffalo has a quarterback that not just raises their floor, but also raises their ceiling.
65:25The Patriots so far have had quarterback play that reduces both makes their floor way lower.
65:29And I feel like their ceiling is capped at knee height this year so far.
65:34So I just, I don't, as odd as it is to say, compared to where we were a month ago, looking at
65:40this team, I need to see it to believe it with the Patriots.
65:44This could very easily be a team that's like bottom 10 or worse.
65:48I, I have the bills winning this game at the eight spot here.
65:52So I also see it pretty highly the way that you do.
65:56And it goes a little bit back to what I talked about with the chargers.
66:00If they, if the chargers win their game, if the, if the Patriots win this game against the bills, they will have
66:07looked at, this will be by far the best they have ever looked this season.
66:12Like in so many facets of the game and for Buffalo to be a team that just had five turnovers and lost
66:18the turnover differential by four and still won the football game.
66:22I mean, that just tells you how genuinely like powerful this team is and how there is no say die with the
66:28Buffalo bills that for, for as much as they can shoot themselves in the foot, they still have the players to get out of it in any situation.
66:37And the way that the Patriots are playing, it's really hard to have faith that they're all of a sudden going to
66:43be the team that capitalizes on the bills mistakes.
66:46Because last week was the week for the bills to lose.
66:49You had five turnovers. You lost the turnover differential battle by four.
66:53Like that was, I'm not saying that the bills are going to go undefeated.
66:57I don't know if they're going to go undefeated, but that's the game that you lose.
67:02So if you're the Patriots, what are you saying?
67:05Well, I mean, if we, if we, if we get six turnovers, six turnovers, then we got a shot, you know?
67:11So look, every game starts zero, zero. Every game is different, but I agree with you.
67:16It's, it's hard to watch what the Patriots have done and think that they're going to beat this bills team.
67:22So I got that at the eight spot, uh, Carolina and Detroit Sunday night football here.
67:27A little prime time in Carolina. First time, I think in over 10 years that the Carolina Panthers have been on Sunday night football.
67:34What do you think about this game? The only thing I know for sure is that Detroit's going to score 31 points.
67:41Cause that's all they've done all season is just score 31 points.
67:44The question is, can Carolina get to 32 or higher?
67:47Maybe. Or higher. 32 or higher. Maybe. I, I can't, I can't figure out the Panthers.
67:52Mm-hmm. Cause every time I feel like I do, a star player gets hurt and they just lost JC Horn with a torn quad.
67:59Right. Like Bryce has been really good, but you know, the Cleveland defense did clamp down in the red zone, force four
68:06straight field goals from them, which ultimately, you know, keeping those sevens from becoming, or keeping those threes from becoming sevens is
68:13why, you know, the Browns won that game. I still, I think I favored Detroit in this one ever so slightly, but
68:19it's more so because I really don't know what the Panthers are yet.
68:23I have a pretty good idea of what the, the, the lions are.
68:27They're a good offense with a shaky at best defense.
68:30So give me the lines to win this game.
68:33I put it at the one spot. Cause I have no idea.
68:36Like I really have no idea who's going to win.
68:39It's I'm taking Carolina. I'm taking Carolina here. I'll take the Panthers and I'll put this in my three spot.
68:45I agree with you that. I think the lions are going to score good amount of points.
68:51I think it's going to be above 25. Certainly.
68:53I don't know how high exactly it is. Maybe it is exactly 31.
68:57But this lions team is giving up the most passing yards per game of any team in the NFL through three weeks of the season.
69:05You look at what Gino Smith was able to do against his defense.
69:09He was 31 for 37 last week, 321 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, 129.8 quarterback rating, and an 83.8 completion percentage.
69:15Is that all? Bryce has had much more good than bad this season.
69:19And in fact, we've talked about it. It's sometimes been the best that Bryce Young has looked.
69:24So, I'm going to have faith in Bryce to continue to look really well against one of, if not the worst pass defense in the NFL.
69:32And I think because of that, I wonder if Carolina, you highlighted this in the season preview show, how Carolina all of
69:38last year liked to be that team that limited possessions.
69:42I wonder if there's a little bit of that.
69:44I wonder if there's a little bit of that as well.
69:48They're still averaging a very high, you know, like cushion coverage average when they're playing cover three and they're playing that off coverage.
69:54Do they keep things in front of them enough to slow down the game enough to where, hey, you capitalize on their mistakes a little bit.
70:02And very clearly in the passing game, they're not really able to put a lot of pressure on you, or at least they haven't been this season.
70:10I just, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll have my faith in Bryce Young in this game and how well he has played through
70:17the first three weeks of the season. I'll take Carolina.
70:20I got him at my three spot there. What about the Packers and the Buccaneers?
70:25What do you got with it in this game?
70:27I might regret this. I'm going with Tampa. Wow.
70:30I put it at my eight spot. Wait, hold on.
70:33Hold on. You know, Baker Mayfield's not playing, right?
70:36I'm, I realized that. Could it be worse? No, sadly, no, it can't, it really can't get too much worse than how
70:42the offense has played through the first three weeks of the season.
70:46So they might get the backup quarterback bump with Jalen Daniels, especially from how Jalen Daniels played this preseason.
70:52You heard it at the eight spot. I put it at the eight spot.
70:56It's not really a reflection on Tampa. Like Tampa hasn't been good.
71:00Green Bay's been atrocious. Green Bay's been bad. They've been really bad.
71:03This might be the worst offensive line in football.
71:06This is the all horrendous vibes bowl. It's, it's bad.
71:09Like this is a bad game. I can't think of a matchup where two combined fan bases are having less of a
71:16good time this season than the Packers facing the Buccaneers.
71:19Both fan bases are doing mock drafts. We're not in October yet.
71:22Like that's bad. Mocktober. You mean like I, yeah, I partially put it at the eight spot.
71:27Cause I felt like if I knew you weren't going to pick Tampa, I'm assuming you didn't pick Tampa.
71:33Of course not. No. And I was like, if there's any game, if there's any game, especially like a, just a gross
71:40game that I could build a little bit of a lead on you.
71:44I was like eight points on Tampa, maybe, but I don't feel good about it.
71:48I have green Bay winning. I haven't had a two spot.
71:52So if, so if Tampa wins this game, you are going to leap me, I think in the ranking.
71:57So we will see. You're right. I mean, green Bay's offensive line is, is bad and it doesn't feel like it's getting any better.
72:04But man, Tampa has been all over the place, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
72:10Maybe they do get that backup quarterback bump where you just, you don't know what to expect.
72:15And the kid comes out guns blazing, but we will see.
72:18We will see. You got it at the eight spot.
72:21I got it at the two spot. I had green Bay.
72:24You got Tampa. That's going to be interesting. Rams and the Eagles.
72:28Where's this in their rankings? So this was right above Kansas city in Vegas.
72:32I put it at the six spot. Cause I wasn't sure either way.
72:36Like I was reasonably confident, but I wasn't like really, really confident in it.
72:40Uh, so I picked the Rams in this one.
72:43They have their own problems, right? When you're, when you're missing miles Garrett, there is a difference in this pass rush.
72:49Uh, when you're missing Puka, there is a difference in this past game.
72:53Matthew Stafford. I don't want to say he's been bad, but it hasn't looked like the MVP Stafford of last year.
73:00Basically the only player who's really looked like himself is Davante Adams.
73:03And he looks like 29 year old Devontae Adams, not 35 year old Devontae Adams.
73:08Right. The defense, it feels like it oscillates with each passing week.
73:11I still can't quite figure them out either. So the one reason why I felt good about putting it at the six
73:18is because for all the problems the Rams have, the Eagles problems are worse.
73:22Yeah. Right. Nine possessions last game. And six of them were five plays or less.
73:27Like this offense can't do anything. And the defense, I I've, I expect a lot more from their defensive line so far this season.
73:34I'll say that. So give me the Rams reasonably confident, not super confident at the six spot.
73:39I get the Rams winning and I have the seven spot.
73:43Um, I just, man, it was, it was so out of sync what we saw with the Philadelphia Eagles, um, on Monday night football.
73:50And the first half wasn't horrible, but the second half, man, it was just, it was, um, I think the furthest end
73:56of the spectrum from what we have seen with this Eagles offense, not just this year, but also in years past as
74:03well, where it's either they are, they are a well-oiled machine or it is nothing.
74:08And there is far too much of both of those realities that exist for me to have a lot of faith in
74:14what the Eagles are doing right now, especially up front along the offensive line.
74:18The quick cat passing game really got to them against the bears.
74:22When case Keenum was getting the ball out of his hands really quick.
74:26I think the Rams are going to notice that and try to neutralize, uh, the Eagles defensive front in sort of the same ways.
74:33So give me the Rams in this one. I also think that the Rams are man, very desperate team.
74:39I mean, they're starting you, I'm not saying the season's anywhere close to over for them, but they're going to, they have
74:46a really rough last six or seven games of the season.
74:49They got to start stacking some wins together to be okay with, you know, bouncing around with wins and losses when they
74:56get into the late November and December. And I think this is one of those pivotal games for them.
75:01So I'll take the Rams. I got this a seven spot last game, the new Orleans saints and the Atlanta Falcons.
75:08Where's this game for you? It's like the polar opposite of bucks Packers.
75:12As far as vibes, it's just fun. I think both fan bases are really excited for this.
75:17You know, we know the dome is going to be rocking.
75:20It's, it's 20 years, uh, 20 year anniversary of, you know, the Gleason play.
75:24Um, it's going to be an emotional night. It's going to be a super juiced up night, but income, the Falcons coming
75:31off a really excellent win over green Bay, where they just dominated them almost 500 net yards of offense, two 40 on the ground.
75:38Bijon's looking amazing. He's also on the MVP ballot.
75:41If there was one right now, um, you know, the defense has been super aggressive.
75:45Michael Penix started off slow, you know, two and two, uh, two of seven in the first quarter finished darn near perfect in the last three quarters.
75:53I love this game. Like I, I really can't wait to watch this game as a like neutral observer as far as
76:00picking it darn near impossible because both of these teams are, really explosive.
76:04They can put up points. I'm going Atlanta, but I put it at my two spot because I, I don't really have
76:11a good idea of who's going to win. All I know is this is going to be phenomenal television.
76:16Like I really, really cannot wait for this game.
76:19Uh, and I'm, I'm very happy to be a third party fan that doesn't have to agonize over it.
76:25Cause I know it's going to be close either way.
76:28Uh, phenomenal television and NFC South matchups have not normally gone in the same sentence over the last couple of years, but here we are.
76:35I do think that this is going to be a fun matchup, whether that's like super explosive offense is fun or both
76:42teams not knowing how to win, but at the same time, and it's a close game to the very end kind of fun.
76:49Ultimately, the Atlanta Falcons, uh, play man coverage at a top 10 rate in the NFL through the first three weeks of the season.
76:56Tyler Shuck is a top 10 passer, at least for passing yards versus man coverage this season.
77:01And I think that that's when he feels very, very comfortable.
77:05And even though the Falcons want to play man coverage, I don't know if they have the full secondary to be able
77:11to be, to be able to contain this saints passing attack.
77:15Give me new Orleans in this one. I'm going to take new Orleans at the six spot.
77:20I think that they bounce back and I think that they get a, uh, division win here.
77:25Thanks for listening to our week four preview podcast.
77:28Listen to NFL pro on the I heart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.