0:00The NFL Draft is officially in the books and we know all of the landing spots for the key rookies in the 2026 class. We
0:06are going to be breaking down some of the top wide receivers this week on film versus analytics. Theo Gremminger, Scott Barrett, and Brett Whitefield here for
0:15Fantasy Points. We're going to be talking about some of these elite wide receivers out of the class and their impact in fantasy football and their
0:22long-term outlook. Are they going to be elite players or are they players you should be avoiding? And we're starting out with Carnell Tate.
0:37>> That's Theo. That's Theo G.
0:39>> [music] >> He was drafted at fourth overall, which
0:51was higher than a lot of uh prognosticators, including ourselves, uh thought he would go. Your thoughts on Carnell Tate when you take a look at the
1:00analytics and now add context that he was drafted at four.
1:04>> Yeah, there wasn't really too much controversy regarding Tate among the top film guys. You know, Brett had him a tier above any other wide receiver in
1:13this class. Danny Kelly a tier above any other wide receiver. And the Titans listening to their press conference, it was clear they had him a tier above
1:22every wide receiver in this class. Among the analytics guys, a lot more controversy. The great Sean Siegel uh had Carnell Tate as his wide receiver
1:31four. Uh other, you know, highly respected analytics guys felt the same way. To me, um it's a really tricky evaluation. You
1:41look at the production profile. He was the team's wide receiver four in 2023, the team's wide receiver three in 2024 behind Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate
1:50the younger Jeremiah Smith. And then last year he was the wide receiver two behind Jeremiah Smith again. And looking at the production it really wasn't
2:00close. It is certainly Justin Jefferson was much closer to Jamar Chase and you have these a common narrative on Carnell Tate
2:08coming out is you know, he wasn't even the wide receiver one of his own team.
2:12So how should we why should we expect him to be wide receiver one of an NFL team? Obviously, I think that's you
2:18know, really a stupid argument, but I will say yeah, the the lack of production was concerning even if you have Jeremiah Smith as a Jamar Chase
2:27level prospect which is how my model currently has it.
2:31The only two perfect wide receiver prospects of the past I don't know 15 years are Jamar Chase, Jeremiah Smith.
2:40And it really just kind of muddies the situation here. It makes it complicated from a modeling perspective.
2:47And I don't know that we can say much about Carnell Tate definitively based on the analytics outside of the fact that
2:54we know Jeremiah Smith was better.
2:57And I think even factoring in Jeremiah Smith's greatness, he's supposed to go top five in the draft next year. The numbers are still bad. The the the lack
3:05of target volume is still really concerning because Ohio State also played 12 personnel at nearly double the FBS average rate. It
3:15was one of the highest rates in the FBS and so Jeremiah Smith is tough target competition, but everyone else he's competing for targets against is not.
3:25Like you know, a wide receiver is always going to have a higher expected targets per route run when there's two plus
3:30tight ends on the field. That's softer target competition. What he does have going for him is a lead per target efficiency. Super elite and that's
3:39exactly what you would need to see from a player who wasn't the wide receiver one on his own team. For instance, that
3:45was exactly what we saw with Jaylen Waddle who who averaged 15.1 career yards per target opposite Devonta Smith.
3:52That was 12% better than any other wide receiver this past decade.
3:56Carnell Tate last year led all FBS receivers in passer rating when targeted.
4:02He had the best career yards for target in the class. Last year minus the postseason, he averaged 15 yards per target, which is the best single season
4:11mark since 2017 on a stacked list that includes Jamar Chase, CD Lamb, Tee Higgins BTJ.
4:18Um you know, another really cool stat is he has a 99th percentile career contested catch rate. I'm sure this is something
4:26Brett's going to bring up when he talks about the film he likes. That is something that's sneaky predictive. He converted 86% of his contested targets.
4:35Only Justin Jefferson and JSN have seasons that ranked better.
4:39So really impressive there and and sneaky predictive. So there's some good, there's some bad. Really there's a lot of murkiness to this analytics profile.
4:50Um what I will say on top of these production concerns is that to me this doesn't really look like the most
4:56fantasy-friendly archetype. I don't see a ton of PPR upside.
5:01I see Tate as sort of Mike Williams-esque where he's this downfield contested catch artist maybe and not at
5:10all a YAC guy, which is I hear Brett I hear Brett laughing. So so I'm I want to hear your your film take, but um
5:18you know, I just live in fear of the Mike Williams archetype and so the lack of YAC, um which is something that's
5:25very predictive, is really important to my model. Last year he was eighth percentile in yards after the catch per reception. He's one of the worst round
5:33one wide receivers ever by yards after the catch per reception minus screens.
5:37Remember that was my big knock, Jim Nagy's big knock on Marvin Harrison Jr.
5:41coming out. That's that's something that's sticky. Typically if If not a YAC guy in college, you're not going to be a
5:47YAC guy in the pros. And so, just to sum this all up is there's a lot of I don't think the analytics can
5:55really tell us a whole lot here. And so, I am okay. I am comfortable really deferring to Brett Whitefield's expertise based on what he saw from the
6:05film, but I do have these concerns and I would like to hear Brett address those concerns.
6:11>> Yeah, before I do that, let me just give my my 411 on Tate's game.
6:15Um and maybe within that I'll assuage some of your concerns. First and foremost though the Mike Williams name you keep throwing
6:23out, I I'm going to throw myself off a bridge if I have to hear this for the next 5 years.
6:27Mike Williams was a sluggish non-route runner, contested catch only guy.
6:32Carnell Tate's the best route-running player in the draft. He's the best separator in the draft. And as a company, we are the ass men.
6:40Okay? We are the [laughter] It is our prerogative >> score, for those who don't know, >> uh we need to be planting our flag on
6:47the ass god himself, Carnell Tate.
6:50Because this guy is one of the best separators I've ever seen. You you You talk about numbers like passer rating and and the efficiency metrics
6:57downfield. Well, the reason that's possible is because he's generating massive separation. He cooked cornerbacks on a on the regular.
7:05Um and when you talk about the separation, it's not just an athleticism thing. There's the the technique is there. The the release package um he's
7:13got a foot fire release. He's got a split release that's like other worldly.
7:17Um his separation burst in and out of his breaks is ridiculous. The ability to sink and explode, the unlocked ankles and hips to to bend as he's running at
7:26full speed is is unreal. And then the discipline, the yardage discipline in which he he was running those routes is other worldly. Um and and the separation
7:36absolutely is going to translate.
7:38I I talk about the you do or sorry, you mentioned the contested catch stuff, the 12 for 14 this year, I believe, and last
7:44year it was even good in a smaller sample as well. Um I literally wrote him up as he's the new director of the FAA
7:50cuz he's director of air traffic control. This guy, the ball is in the air, he owns the catch space. There were
7:56only two catchable targets uh thrown his way that he didn't catch this year. They weren't drops. They were They were the only two contested catches
8:03he didn't grab. Really impressive stuff.
8:06Um Yeah, and then you you talk about the YAC stuff. Like I think I keep hearing you mention the Jim Nagy comments
8:13about YAC as a good indicator, like YAC is sticky. The thing about the difference between what Jim means and what you mean, there's a there's a ocean
8:22between that. You look at YAC on a on a spreadsheet and say, "Oh, this guy >> I do.
8:28>> It does That doesn't trans Jim Nagy said that doesn't translate. That's not what Jim's saying. Jim's saying if we can't
8:33see you perform in yards after catch opportunities on tape, you probably won't be able to at the NFL level.
8:40They're two very different things. And when you watch tapes Tate's film, you see a very competent player after the catch. And in fact, I wish he got
8:49more of those opportunities, but he does play with a guy named Jeremiah Smith. By the way, Scott, you're going to hate
8:53this. Jeremiah Smith has worse run after catch numbers than than Cornell Tate does, for what it's worth. Um but Jeremiah Smith got all of those
9:02opportunities. In fact, the only difference in their their volume player to player is that Jeremiah Smith got all of the the targets within 5 yd of the
9:09line of scrimmage. But when Tate did get those opportunities, he was extremely dynamic after the catch. Can make guys miss, has awesome open field vision and
9:19and burst to to, you know, break angles.
9:23He's really a complete wide receiver. In writing up his weaknesses, I literally had to invent things. Like he's a slight build for a typical wide receiver one.
9:31Who cares? Uh he's not great in the run game yet. Who cares? That's not why he got drafted fourth overall. It's like I
9:36literally had to make stuff up. This is the one of the most complete receiver profiles I've ever seen. And in fact, I
9:42like he's he scores top 12 for me all time in 12 years of doing this. Between guys like A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb, I
9:48had a top 10 grade on A.J. Brown in his class, um a top 10 grade on CeeDee Lamb in his class.
9:54I also don't care about Jeremiah Smith potentially being better than Carnell Tate. You have Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen
10:01Waddle, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
10:03Drake London >> I'm on Ross St. Brown, yeah.
10:05>> And Michael Pittman, you know, they all three of them played together for a year. Like, I literally don't give a rip
10:10about that. So, >> I I just want to remind the listeners that like one of the most predictive variables uh I could use in my model would be
10:17Brett Whitefield's film score. So, you just said this is a top 12 grade over the past 12 years for you. That's that's
10:23really significant. And uh yeah, again, these were mostly just worries in a in a complicated profile where I don't think the analytics could tell us as much as
10:32the film. And I think you did a really good job of of addressing a number of these these concerns.
10:37>> I want to kick it back to you, Scott, because one interesting thing about Carnell Tate, and you've talked about 40-yard dash time, where if a player is
10:45a a little bit slower reflective to the rest of the class, that's the player that we want to be attacking. I think
10:51when you put into context that you're talking about Carnell Tate's not 6'4.
10:56He's 6'2.
10:57And he's not running a 4-4. He's running in the 4-5s. And the NFL still took him at four overall. Doesn't that speak
11:04volumes to how the NFL sees him as a technician and a player that can win in many ways? And your just your general
11:12thoughts about that because you've done a whole lot of studies with your SPORK score and athleticism, especially at the wide receiver position.
11:19>> Yeah, I'm very intentional about the the red flags and green flags I bring up uh when I do this show. You know, the the
11:27lack of short area targets for Carnell Tate is concerning in the sense that, you know, does that diminish his PPR upside for fantasy? That that's
11:37concerning to me. The 40-yard dash time doesn't mean anything to me. This is just something the NFL is constantly whiffing on. You look at the top 30
11:45fastest wide receivers in NFL combine history, there's only one 1,000-yard receiver on the that list. Although, there's 20 round one through three wide
11:56receiver picks, and it's really all the biggest bust of the past 20 years.
12:01Carnell Tate ran a 4.53. He's too slow.
12:04We saw that narrative over and over again. You know who was You know who runs in the 4.5s and is viewed as too slow? All of the best wide
12:12receivers in football. Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb. And so, that is just not a compelling argument
12:22to me. It's The NFL is consistently overrating athleticism with wide receivers and underrating route-running technicians. Keenan Allen's another one.
12:32And and so, yeah, with with Brett saying, you know, he is one of the best route runners he's seen in a while,
12:39that's like so much more valuable to me than if he ran like a 4.3 somehow.
12:45>> The more important thing than speed is the ability to stop.
12:49That is 100% more important. I don't care how fast you run. It's how fast you can stop. If you can stop on a dime,
12:55that that opens you have access to every route underneath. You can run comebacks, hitches, digs with without a, you know, a flaw. I mean, it's
13:05I don't know. I This this debate gets lost in the shuffle so much, but the the ability to stop is exponentially more
13:10important than than burst and top speed.
13:13>> Listen, you know, if I could change the combine, I would love to add the squat.
13:17That's so much more important to me than the bench press. And you know, maybe instead of the 40 time for wide
13:22receivers, we have them doing suicides on a back basketball court.
13:27>> We would have guys blowing out their knees trying to squat whatever a number like 315 maxing out on 315 or whatever the NFL
13:34adds to the bar.
13:35So, I've been >> know how much my left tackle squats, Theo. I'm sorry.
13:39>> Max squat or get or get or GTFO.
13:42>> One rep max.
13:44>> Brett, let's talk about it because I've been completely in your camp. I think Carnell Tate's awesome. On the record, he's my 1.02 in Dynasty Superflex tight
13:52end premium rookie drafts. I'll take him over Mingoza. And from a redraft best ball perspective, I want to have a lot
14:00of him as well. My first question for you would be we've seen Brian Daboll twice over the relatively near past that
14:10he's been associated with alpha wide receivers. Is there anything predictive that we can get from his days in Buffalo with Stefon Diggs who came over in a
14:19trade from Minnesota? Or from his time with Malik Nabers where Malik Nabers had like an otherworldly target share, first read rate rookie season where he
14:30finished as a wide receiver one. So, two big-time wide receiver one finishes in recent past. Do you think anything translates for Carnell Tate? And is
14:39there parallels between the way he will be used with those two guys?
14:43>> Yeah, 100%. He Brian Daboll wants that alpha wide receiver one high volume guy in his offense. He's proven that every
14:50step of the way.
14:51Um shoot, even back in his college days.
14:53Like I I definitely think there's something to to take there, especially when you look at Tate's play style where he does have this elite body control and
15:00route running. That's right in line with a Stefon Diggs. That's, you know, right in line with a Malik Nabers. That's how
15:06we viewed those guys. So, um Nabers the route running came after the college, but yeah, I mean, still same total package though. That route running with
15:13body control, contested catchability, all of that.
15:17>> Scott, does history repeat itself? I mean, you have a great familiarity with Brian Daboll. You're a Giants fan and also clearly evaluate offensive
15:25coordinators and systems. Do you see some parallels here? And it would it be a little more Diggs-like or a little more Neighbors-like if you had to put a
15:34wager on it?
15:35>> Yeah, well, I think he has a real opportunity to be the wide receiver one right away. And you you you when you
15:41listen to the press conference right after they made that selection, they they kind of said that. It's like, "Hey, just because he wasn't the wide receiver
15:47one on his own team, I think he could be a wide receiver one for us because, you know, he was 20 years old all of last year.
15:55He's growing. He's developing. We see upside." They did acknowledge, you know, he maybe yak is an area of his weakness, but strengths are exactly what we talked
16:04about, contested catches, what not. And so, I think I think if Brett is right, then yeah, he's going to come out and be
16:11the wide receiver one right away, really productive.
16:15Cam Ward's going to love him. I think if some of the concerns I brought up are right, then yeah, don't be surprised if
16:23Wan'Dale Robinson out targets targets him. Maybe maybe Wan'Dale doesn't out score him for fantasy, but Wan'Dale out targets him. And so,
16:31I think those are kind of the range of outcomes you're looking at. I will I will say, you know, Brett kind of swayed
16:38me enough that, you know, just because it was Jeremiah Smith feasting in the short area, doesn't mean Carnell Tate can't do that to some degree for the
16:47Titans this year.
16:49Worst case scenario, I think you're looking at what DK Metcalf did with the Steelers last year.
16:54Best case scenario, he's just yet another one of these rookie wide receiver league winners, which has been a theme really of the
17:03last 5 years that these rookie wide receivers are all too often among the best draft picks you can make where they
17:10especially turn it on in the second half of a season.
17:13And I think this, you you being Cam Ward's wide receiver one, uh I think is a great opportunity for him.
17:20>> Yeah, I think there's some really strong takes there from Scott, and I I would lean towards you want access to him if
17:26you were a drafting especially in Best Ball cuz I think he's capable of putting up a lot of spike weeks, but Brett, a a
17:31lot of the a lot of the range of outcomes for Carnell [snorts] Tate are going to be dependent on Cam Ward's
17:38ascension. When you look at what you saw from Cam Ward last year, and also when you evaluated him coming out of Miami,
17:47how do you think these two align with one another? And is Cam Ward going to help open up Carnell Tate, or is he
17:54going to potentially hold him back? How do their skills align?
17:58>> That's a great question. So, Cam, you know, he exceeded my expectations as a rookie. I thought, you know, coming in
18:04he was very, you know, undeveloped as a as a rhythm passer, not a guy who's going to hit his back foot and let it
18:10go.
18:11And I thought he he did a pretty okay job of that, especially considering the offensive line situation, especially considering the pass-catching situation
18:19he had. The guy I really felt like he he, you know, surpassed my expectations. So, I think the additions of Wan'Dale and
18:26Tate it's just going to be awesome for Cam, where, you know, Cam he's an aggressive quarterback, guys. Like, he wants to attack the intermediate deep
18:34part of the field. That's why they brought Tate here. He's That's where he lives. He lives in that intermediate deep part. So, I I for sure think they
18:41complement each other really well. The big question's going to be can Cam continue his development in becoming more of a rhythmic passer, run the
18:48offense kind of guy, or is it going to be all off-script? You know, and Tate's okay on off-script off-script stuff. I
18:55think he's pretty good at it, but like you don't want to live in that realm as a fantasy player.
18:59>> Yeah, I'm excited about it because we talk about offensive ecosystems, and you add in Brian Daboll taking over as the
19:05play-caller, uh some rational coaching there, and then they back it up with the big-time signing of Wan'Dale Robinson, and then the draft pick of Tate. So,
19:14they're pushing their chips in with Cam Ward. Quick fantasy question for you, Scott, off the cuff, no show sheet. We have the early Best Ball Mania
19:23ADPs. They were sort of coming to play.
19:25I know I I put a bunch of drafts together over the last couple days. I know a lot of our listeners are
19:30as well. Carnell Tate's first early ADP since he was selected by the Titans is wide receiver 30, 59th overall. So, we've talked about him a ton from a
19:40dynasty perspective over the last couple days. Do you think wide receiver 30 is a gift, or do you think it's appropriately
19:47priced? And to add context for you, Rome Odunze is the wide receiver 28, Christian Watson the wide receiver 29.
19:54>> Yeah, I like that. I think I think that's a a price worth chasing. Think of that list, maybe maybe only Rome Odunze is
20:03the only wide receiver I prefer.
20:05>> Yes, so there you hear it. I completely agree with Scott on that. I think there's upside in his price in Best
20:09Ball.
20:11I'm enthusiastically drafting him in dynasty, and I will be very excited to draft him when we get to redraft season.
20:17I think the price will be right to take your shots, and we'll see how that ADP shakes out throughout the summer. Any
20:24final words on Carnell Tate? Kick it to you first, Brett.
20:28>> I think he's awesome. I think you should draft him with the second pick in your fantasy drafts.
20:32>> And Scott, Fernando Mendoza, Carnell Tate, or another wide receiver in your dynasty drafts?
20:38>> Uh yeah, I would go with love Mendoza Tate.
20:42>> Well, there you go. So, Brett and I both have Tate at two. Scott has Tate at three. Go ahead and draft him in your
20:49dynasty rookie drafts, and keep keep listening to Scott and I all summer as we cover some of these Best Ball and
20:54redraft values, but I think we'll be discussing Carnell Tate a lot. I think there's a ton of steam to this profile,
21:00and a player we're really, really excited about. Stick with us at Film vs.
21:03Analytics. We're going to be breaking down Jordan Tyson, Mekhi Lemon, and Casey Concepcion, And check out some of our old videos that we dropped to hear
21:11our takes on guys like Jeremiah Love, Kadik Kenyon Sadiq, and Fernando Mendoza. We'll see you soon.
21:19>> [music]
