0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. It's Monday, so you know what time it is. Time for Mock
0:03Draft Monday. Uh this week, I want to talk about how strategy can kind of change depending on league size. So, I
0:10talk a lot in these videos about half PPR 12 team cuz it's just like a good baseline for everyone. But, uh things
0:16change a little bit in a 10 team league.
0:18Things change a little bit in a full PPR format. So, we're going to go to 10 team full PPR and we're going to talk through
0:24especially how um we maybe like the different picks early on. Cuz a lot of you are picking uh what spot you're
0:29going to be in right now. So, we'll go with a mid pick, 10 team league, full PPR. Roster settings will be normal, two
0:35wide receivers, two running back, one flex spot. We'll keep defense and kicker both in there. So, in 10 team,
0:46I guess we'll start with 12 team. In a 12 team league, you guys know I said I like the late picks. So, if you pull up
0:52kind of a draft board, uh this is a 10 team draft board, but in a late pick, typically teams start running back
0:57running back. And if you don't start running back running back, you're at least starting like uh James Cook and Justin Jefferson, James
1:03Cook and CeeDee Lamb, Jente and Lamb, you know, some sort of combination like that. Amon-Ra maybe and Chase Brown. All literally good. Like, if you whichever
1:12one you want is totally fine to start with. They're all fantastic starts. You do that from picks, I think in 12 team
1:18league, nine on. Cuz at pick eight, uh you technically have a chance that you've missed out on the top end of
1:24running back. I don't count Achane and Derrick Henry in that. If you do, you can do it from pick seven on. So,
1:31understand that. Uh but I don't count them in that um that top tier. I count them kind of in their like tier of their
1:36own after that. So, if you have pick like eight, you might not get that second running back we want. You might
1:41be forced to say, "Okay, do I want Bowers? Do I want Achane? Do I want Henry?" That's basically the decision.
1:46And I think that's like a mini tier after that top one. So, I like picks nine through 12. It does change though.
1:51I've said that a lot, but in a 10 team league, well, all of a sudden that second round is a little bit earlier.
1:56So, you can do the same thing from pick five, and that's why I've kind of highlighted this one here.
2:00I still think picks one and two are the best. Pick one this season is by far the best. If you have the opportunity to
2:06pick pick one, do it and take Jahmyr Gibbs in all formats. Um pick two is still great cuz you get Bijan. Uh you
2:12can do here or you can do robust. It literally doesn't matter. You're just locking in a top running back. And then,
2:17honestly, three through five is also solid just because you get one of Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, or Christian McCaffrey, and you're not forced among
2:25that second tier of like Jonathan Taylor, JSN, Amon-Ra. Uh like really the rankings there could be however you want it, and for you to have to pick first
2:34among that range, not as ideal. So, pick six not as amazing. But pick five in a 12-team league is a little bit worse
2:42because you are going to miss out on that second running back. And if it starts off like this, where you have a
2:48team go Gibbs, Bijan, McCaffrey, and Chase, well, you kind of have to take Puka. Like I just kind of think that's how you have to be doing it. Um
2:57and again, in half PPR, running backs bump up more than this. Um but I think you kind of just have to take Puka,
3:02right? He's even if even if we knew he was going to be suspended, honestly, I would take Puka over Amon-Ra and JSN as
3:07long as the suspension's like only one or two games.
3:10But you have to do that. You have a chance you miss out on the running backs, and all of a sudden you have
3:14maybe a Puka Bowers start. Then you get to round three, and now you have Jeremiah Love with a high ankle sprain,
3:20so he's even pushed kind of uh I haven't done the updated rankings yet for that, but he might be pushed out of round
3:25three. So, you might get into round three and be like, "Okay, now I have to go wide receiver again," and you're
3:29forcing an RB zero. So, basically, I just want draft slots that don't force me into that. In this season, that's pick one, it's pick two, it is pick five
3:37in a 10-team league, uh and really pick five on a 12-team league, but it's more pick nine on in a 12-team league. So,
3:43those are just like the little bit of differences when you say I like certain picks, it does depend on uh your league
3:48size. So, all of that is to say we'll take Puka Nacua, and we'll see what happens for the rest of this one. So, uh
3:55uh running back run after JT Cook, Quentin Johnston, Saquon, and then a wide receiver run. Amon-Ra, Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, Jefferson,
4:03A.J. Brown, and Nico Collins. So, I don't count um no way, even in full PPR, I would take Nico. I would not take A.J. Brown. The
4:11rest of the receivers make sense, like Jefferson, Lamb, uh Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra. After this kind of like second round running backs, or before the
4:18second round running backs, totally fine taking them. I would not take A.J. Brown or Nico Collins uh ahead of this range
4:23of running back. To me, um I just I just think you take Puka Nacua.
4:29Uh we can see Dynamic at the top is telling us running back is a plus 14%, wide receiver is a plus 6%, negative for
4:35quarterback, slightly negative for tight end. This is another thing I want to talk about, um which we'll do after I make Actually, we'll do it now. Um
4:42tight end. The decision for tight end this season uh basically it's do you take Bowers in the middle of the second round? We're going to start right
4:50now where we can absolutely take him mid second round. Uh it gets better as league size shrinks. So, I always talk
4:55about it again 12-team leagues. I still like him in round two, but I like him after Bowers uh or after uh Chase Brown.
5:02Achane bumps up in full PPR, so he kind of jumps into this tier. But, Chase Brown, Achane, Hampton, Kenneth Walker.
5:09After that grouping in half PPR, I kick uh Achane kind of out of that group after those guys. So, I would not
5:16personally start off Puka, Bowers, and then see what happens in round three.
5:19Running back, I think it's a little bit too risky. I would probably just take uh one of these running backs, and then I
5:24would go um hopefully Loveland in round four, but if not, it's okay. We'll keep having shots at tight end. But, as the
5:30league size shrinks, as you get from 12 to 10, and especially into an eight-team league, everyone's good. Everyone's great at running back, receiver. It's
5:37very difficult to actually gain an edge, and even at quarterback, everyone says, "Oh, the onesies both increase in value." Not really. Like, quarterback
5:44doesn't increase in value that much in smaller Like, it does to a degree, but if there are nine quarterbacks I feel
5:50great about and you're in eight-team league, guess what? You're probably going to land one of them and probably one of them at a very good value. So,
5:56there's not as big of a difference. But, in eight-team league versus 12-team league, if you're in um looking at Bowers, you're looking at Loveland,
6:02you're looking at Trey McBride, like you're still going to be going up against streaming quarterback or streaming tight ends. Like, there's not
6:08that many tight ends that are going to be solid this season. It's probably going to be like five or six tight ends
6:12that are good. There are going to be teams that are streaming. And so, that is literally the only position where you
6:17can probably gain an edge. People are probably not going to have to stream quarterback. There's going to be good options. Even if people forego running
6:23back and wide receiver, there's still going to be solid options for them.
6:26They're still going to be strong. But, you can only be so good at tight end.
6:28And so, it's much better in 10 and eight to take uh Brock Bowers. But, again, uh I like Chase Brown so much this season
6:36that I don't think you would pass on him at this spot.
6:40So, we take Chase Brown, we've got Puka, we've got Chase Brown. Uh we're locking in Kind of touches on two teams that are
6:46both capable of scoring the most touchdowns in the league this season.
6:49After we go, Bowers goes in two, McBride goes in three, uh and then we see London, Neighbors, George Pickens, and Olave go. We see Amari Hampton off the
6:56board, and then we see uh Josh Allen as well early third round. Uh so, another change here. So, we're in full PPR right
7:05now compared to half PPR.
7:08The big difference between these formats is how you consider touchdowns.
7:13Touchdowns become a much larger portion of your starting lineup as you move from full to half to standard. In a standard
7:20scoring format, you literally like can't draft a player on a bad team. Like, it sounds crazy, but you have to draft a
7:25million running backs to start, and you have to think about touchdowns because even if a player has 110 receptions, it literally scores zero fantasy points.
7:33So, it's all about touchdowns. And it makes it a frustrating format cuz you can have a great player just have a down
7:38year in touchdowns, and you're you're "Okay, so I just drafted someone who had like what? 115 receptions, 1,200 yards, and six touchdowns, and like it's at the
7:48end of the day not even that good of a score because people who scored like 10 touchdowns, even on way fewer yards,
7:54outscored them. Like it's just it I don't like the format in standard. In half, I think it's a good mixture. But
7:58in half, you still get the benefit of the receptions, but touchdowns are still king, and especially as we see um plays per game, uh scoring kind of
8:08like impacted by uh the league changes, right? Like plays used to start the 20 drives used to start the 20. Now they start at 35.
8:15So, a touchdown literally has lost now 15 total yards. So, touchdowns are just a larger part of fantasy scoring now than they used to be, especially as
8:23yardage and plays are kind of going to going to change there. So, we need to target players on really good teams only
8:29in half. In full PPR, you can afford to go after like a Casey Concepcion who might not score many touchdowns this season, but
8:39has way uh higher potential than his ADP might suggest for receptions. That's one change. Um another thing is as you move
8:47into full, early tight end also becomes more viable. So, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Cole Kmet, they could have 115, 120 if they get
8:56super lucky, receptions. So, the gap that they can have among this next tier of tight ends can be significant. They can do it with touchdowns, but it's less
9:06likely than like if you're looking at like Trey McBride. Like he's the number one scoring tight end because he scored 17 touchdowns and no one competed with
9:13him. It's more likely they racked up a ton of receptions, and just that gap there is larger in full than in half.
9:20So, it helps tight ends. It also hurts quarterbacks. So, you know how I said I wanted a top nine tight end? Well, guess
9:25what? Uh quarterbacks are at most usually going to have like one reception. Sometimes they throw the ball, it gets batted down, and they
9:31catch their own pass, and it's a reception. Awesome. In full PPR, uh probably only going to happen at most one time, or a trick play, flea flicker,
9:37or something like that. I guess not flea flicker, but a trick play Uh so, end-around where they they come around, you know, the
9:43the the Philly Philly, something like that. You're not going to have many interceptions at quarterback. So, everyone else scores more points. A
9:49quarterback doesn't. So, I still want a top nine, but it makes me much more likely to say I want Herbert and I want
9:56Trevor Lawrence because they're at the end of that top nine, still going to be great, but I'm not spending as much of
10:02that draft capital early on on a position that does not increase in value in my format. So, that's kind of the
10:07difference in full versus half besides the obvious, you know, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Raheem Hampton, they lose value in this format
10:18because they're less likely to have receptions. Derrick Henry, you haven't seen him go. Well, he might have eight receptions this season, so of course
10:24he's going to fall back a little bit.
10:26Someone like Chris Olave could have 100.
10:27So, we're literally talking about like a 50-point difference potential just changing from half to full PPR. It's the same player, but you're just assigning
10:35more points by taking Olave there. So, wide receivers typically gain value. Of course, you can just use dynamic rankings and you'll see this.
10:43Um It changes based on the format. So, we've done one running back, one receiver. Now, normally it's saying, "Okay, lean running back, but not in
10:50full." In a full PPR 10-team league, it's saying, "No, you can actually it's better off a little bit taking wide receiver than running back." Now, we're
10:57not going to do that because there's two really good running backs on the board.
11:01It's saying as a baseline, if all else is equal, you're a little bit better off going with that second wide receiver in
11:06full PPR. But, we're going to take Devon Achane here because even though I'm down on the offense, even though I think the
11:14receptions will be much lower than before, he is still someone that's going to be highly involved in the receiving game, going to get plenty of touches
11:21that in this scoring format in the middle of the third round, I'm totally fine taking him.
11:26So, we'll do that. We'll take Achane.
11:28You could go with Ken Walker as well.
11:29It's just I think Ken Walker is going to get more receptions in like screen game, which will lead to a lot of two and
11:34three reception games as the most, and very few like five, six, and seven reception games. NHN is more capable of doing that. But, if you want to go Ken
11:42Walker, and I'd Ken Walker over him definitely in half PPR where touchdowns are more important. Touchdowns are less important in full PPR, so it's okay
11:49taking a player on Miami. So, I hope that uh makes sense to everyone kind of the difference between these formats um
11:58and just how I'm thinking also about the early rounds in a 10-team league versus a 12-team league. I am less inclined to
12:06really want that late first-round pick in a 10-team league because I was still able to get that top five player and one
12:14of the running backs that really want at pick five. And that's the guarantee at pick five. Someone could still take Nico
12:20or A.J. Brown like happened in this one.
12:21Someone could still take Brock Bowers earlier on. So, that means at pick three, at pick four where you're getting Chase or Christian McCaffrey, you could
12:29also still be getting one of these running backs we really want or maybe one of the wide receivers falls to you.
12:33Or on an off chance you're getting Bowers. So, it's like these early picks are much, much, much better in a 10-team
12:39league. You are not forced to choose amongst that next tier of wide receiver.
12:44Um so, even if you start off wide receiver like we did, you're still going to be get a running back at that next
12:48round. And in the late first round, you don't get that benefit that you had in a 12-team league locking in the guarantee
12:54for running back running back start if you want it. You can still get that at these other picks here. So, hope that
13:00makes sense to everyone. And then in an eight-team league, it's the wild west.
13:03Try and get Brock Bowers in the second round if you can. Uh but, really it's all picks are good. All your team's
13:10going to be amazing. Try your absolute best to just build a really strong team and only only consider upside. Couldn't care less about the floor of a player in
13:18an eight-team league. Everyone's going to be good. You got to hit on those league winners. Floor, it's fine. You've got like three or four bench players
13:24that are also amazing. If you miss on a starter, you can throw them in and it's fine. You got to consider upside in that
13:29form. All right. So, let's move to the rest of this draft. So, we go, again, Puka, Chase Brown, Achane, leaning wide receiver. Moving on. We'll
13:39see what the rest of these teams do. Ken Walker, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, who again, I think I don't know what pick he's going to
13:46fall to, but he was going in the 2-3 turn kind of before this high ankle sprain. For those who don't know, he has
13:51a high ankle sprain. We talked about in the news video. They're like, "Oh, yeah, he could return to the game." But it's
13:56like teams say that so much. It's so annoying. They're like, "Yeah, he could return to the game. He'll be fine."
13:59Comes up 4 days later. They're like, "Oh, yeah, high ankle sprain." Or he's going to be out for a month. And it's
14:03like, how how could you Like, why even lie about that? There's no like incentive to like tell us an untruth there, but whatever. So,
14:11I don't remember. I think I had him ranked maybe around pick like 25, 26, somewhere around there.
14:15He's going to push back.
14:17I would say closer to pick 40 just because he might be ready for week one, but we don't know. And the setback rate,
14:24plus missing time, plus also just being rookie missing time, and also just the fact that, you know, Allgeier was already going to push him for touches.
14:31It's very easy now for them to open with even having Allgeier getting more touches to start the season, at least on
14:37early downs.
14:38He'll still have, you know, explosiveness, plenty of receptions, but it is a bad team with a brutal strength of schedule. They don't They aren't
14:46trying to overload him this season, so it's very possible he opens up pretty slow. Maybe he's someone you trade for.
14:51So, I feel like it's going to it's going to push back closer to like the 40s. I just don't know exactly where that's
14:56going to fall. So, I wouldn't take him there.
14:57Kyren, fine pick to make there. And then, we see wide receivers after that. Jahan Dotson, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Terry McLaurin, and Tee Higgins off the board.
15:06So, as I said, the lean is wide receiver. It's plus 14% for wide receiver, plus 5% for running back. Um at running back, if we were going to go
15:14to that position, Javonte's way worse in full PPR. He's not going to have many receptions. Scat back is a good pick,
15:21but not someone that, you know, um I've said before, not someone I typically want as my third running back. He's totally fine in round four. He's going
15:29to have the receptions, fits the format really well, but as my third running back, I just think you're way better off
15:33going wide receiver or um Loveland in round four. So, I really just wouldn't draft any of these running backs. Maybe you can consider Jacobs, but with the
15:42unknown of suspension, I really don't want him as much. At quarterback, we're not really considering unless Josh Allen falls before the mid-fourth round, we're
15:49not considering quarterback. Uh wide receiver, that's where the range is more optimal. Uh Garrett Wilson's good pick, Ladd, Egbuoka, Waddle, um
16:00Teague got more slot work than maybe anticipated in the preseason game uh when they went to 11 personnel. That is a positive. Um but
16:09still, I mean, I I still just don't think um it's it's a very close range here, but if I'm really choosing between
16:15this range, you know, give me either Garrett or give me, you know, someone on the Chargers, someone on the Bucks, someone on the Broncos. The Panthers are
16:24just a team that I just don't as much want to invest in, even though it matters less in this format, it still
16:28matters to a degree. So, plenty of wide receivers that are good to pick there.
16:32There's going to be one, two, three, there's going to be eight picks to go by between us and our next pick, and
16:37there's five receivers we like. So, if we don't draft a receiver here, there actually is no okay chance we get one of
16:41them in the next round. So, that's an option for us. Um tight end, we have Loveland. So, that is basically our
16:46decision. Do we want to go with Loveland who is still negative, but as I've said for a while, tight end is tough for
16:54dynamic because there's such little actual data. Every year, there's how many tight ends going around four? One, maybe two. So, even though we have a
17:01decade of data, we're not actually looking at that many sam- many uh tight ends in the sample. I think Loveland can
17:07absolutely destroy this season. He is a must-draft player. Um So, I think honestly from a strategy perspective, makes sense to go with
17:12Loveland to get someone who could have 100 receptions and double-digit touchdowns at the same position.
17:19And if there's five wide receivers I like, the odds are one of them is there.
17:23This team already has two wide receivers. All these teams only have one running back. I feel like they're probably going to lean running back
17:30coming up. And I guarantee one of these two teams would take Loveland at the next pick. So, I'm I would risk it. If
17:36this was my league, I'd say give me my guy. I really like Again, I was saying maybe Tet's last on this list. I really
17:41don't care who I'd get among these five.
17:44If I can get Loveland and one of them, that is awesome. And to do that, I have to take Loveland first. So, we go
17:52and we get it.
17:53Waddle's gone, Garrett's gone, Egbuka is gone, but Ladd and Tet are still going to be on the board.
17:58Lamar Jackson is gone, and then Jacobs, Javonte, Dame Montgomery, and De'Andre Swift are gone. So, this is a fairly easy one for us. I would just take Ladd
18:07McConkey.
18:08Um I still don't 100% know uh Pull the draft board here. I don't 100% know like exactly how the splits going to be.
18:16And I just don't think I'm going to ever figure that out before week one.
18:19Um I still think Ladd's the number one.
18:21He should be going earliest among these guys.
18:25Uh but between, you know, like QJ and Trey Harris, I really don't know how much Trey Harris is going to split into
18:30QJ's workload. I've mentioned in these um the the videos on Saturday, the news videos that, you know, there's a lot of
18:36hype around the blocking for Trey Harris, how much he's progressed in the off-season.
18:40Um Mike McDaniel really likes blocking.
18:42Like he he wants Trey Harris out there for that aspect. And so, there's a possibility that if he just plays really
18:47well and he develops the route running, which he has to do. He wasn't that great last season. But if he develops the
18:51route runner, well, it's not like QJ's that good of a route runner. Uh so, Trey Harris could eat into that workload
18:56more. And so, I'd much rather invest in Trey Harris super late than QJ in kind of the middle rounds. Uh but Ladd should
19:02be first. Um I don't love Ladd when he goes in round three, but getting him in round five, I'll do that every single
19:07time. Uh so, we've got Puka and Ladd.
19:09We've got Chase Brown and Devon Achane.
19:12And we've got uh Colson Loveland. I think a fantastic start for this format especially we've got three of our of our four on
19:21very good teams, but we've also got guys who are going to be heavily involved.
19:25All these players could have spiked reception seasons and we're not worried about receptions for any of them. I didn't mention who went.
19:34Quarterback run starts. So that's what you're going to see in rounds like 5 6 7 as all the quarterbacks go. Drake May,
19:39Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams off the board. Tyler Warren goes, Luther Burden and Ted McMillan and then Judkins and
19:48Etienne.
19:50People ask a lot about the duo. Can you draft Loveland and Burden? My answer for the most part is no. Underdog DK Best
19:58Ball obviously do the stack in a redraft league. Um No, because even when Chicago falls behind and they have these really good
20:07games, you could still have Swift go off or Mon guy if he's going to be okay have the touchdowns or Adunze has two
20:13touchdowns and you could still even in those high-end games not have both Loveland and Burden go off. So you capture the upside technically on those
20:20good games, but you don't capture it to that much of a degree where it overtakes the down weeks. There's probably going
20:26to be some weeks that you know Chicago scores 13 points. They score one touchdown and it is Mon guy rushing. And
20:34so now you've got two early round picks that both don't have as many receptions or yards or touchdowns as normal and you
20:40correlate to negative picks. That's not amazing to do. If you're also thinking about upside, well technically you want Loveland to hit his you know 90% out
20:47ceiling. That does not happen in a season where Burden also does that. So there's too much negative. It really really just happens to where
20:54you end up and a lot of people also ask about like the Bengals taking like Chase Brown with one of these guys. Chase
20:59Brown and Tee Higgins. I just wouldn't do it. Honestly like unless it's the top by a lot. If if we got to this pick and
21:05we looked at it and we needed wide receiver and it was Burdon and it was like no Adams, no Evans, no Moore, no
21:11Jamo and it's like Burdon or like Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Adonai. Now I'm like okay, I'll probably just take it cuz it's the best thing
21:18available. It usually will not happen that way and there's too many times. Look at the end of the season you're like I have a ton of
21:24points. I, you know, um drafted all these great players. I'm top three in points. Why do I have so many losses? Well, if you correlated your
21:31team too much in those down weeks that happen to every single team, even the top teams, you correlated the downfalls and you had great weeks uh but you had a
21:39lot of dud weeks and the great weeks don't make up for the duds. They'll just They're going to sign you. You're going
21:43to lose two or three games this season because you drafted Loveland and Burdon and you're not going to win enough to
21:49make up for that. So, wouldn't do it.
21:51All right. Uh dynamic still says wide receiver. Again, um the lean is always wide receiver if you're in full PPR.
21:58Chase Brown, Achane, Puka, Ladd, and Loveland plus 10% for wide receiver, definitely not tight end, plus 5% for running back. And basically minus 1% for
22:06quarterbacks is a fine range to take quarterback. But uh if we look at the top quarterbacks, Burrow um opens up the risk but I'm less worried
22:16about that. So, if you want to draft Burrow and Chase Brown, you want to draft um Justin Herbert and Amari Hampton, totally fine doing that. You're
22:25adding to the risk but it's less likely that the team scores, you know, no touchdowns, right? The Bengals don't score a single touchdown or that like
22:33Samaje Perine has the only rushing touchdown. That's probably not going to happen. A lot of weeks you're going to get either Burrow or Chase Brown or both
22:39doing well. So, it's fine going quarterback running back. Uh it is not as fine doing, you know, running back receiver, two receivers I would not do,
22:46receiver tight end I would not do, tight end running back like I just I wouldn't want those skill players correlated there. I'm fine doing quarterback. Just
22:52know that you're betting on the offense and you're taking some risk on there.
22:55But Burrow would be fine, Herbert's fine, Lawrence is fine here. I think my hope um there are two teams after here that
23:03are going to take quarterback and there's three quarterbacks I'm okay with, Burrow, Herbert, and Lawrence. So, I know with a pretty high level of
23:10certainty I'm going to get one in round seven and that is my preference this season is round seven or eight taking
23:15quarterbacks. So, those are options but I don't think I'll end up going with them. But if you wanted to go do Burrow
23:19and say he's better than those other two, I think that's fine. Um, really Twohill is the only running back I go for here. I'm not in on Travion
23:26this season. Um, it just it's too early to take Warren, Bucky, Price, Stevenson. It's too early to take them. Uh, so I don't think I
23:34would go in that spot unless I didn't have that second running back filled in.
23:37Um, Adams is a good pick. Evans is a good pick. They don't fit the format as much but we are in round six. Those are
23:44guys that can each lead the league in touchdowns by scoring 15 to 17. You're not going to care that you're in full
23:50PPR. You'll be like, "Oh man, they didn't have many receptions." Yeah, if they score 17 touchdowns, could care less how many receptions they end up
23:55having. Uh, DJ Moore also a pretty solid pick in this range. Jamall I more avoid in redraft but I'm warming up to it with
24:03the negative reports from Isaac TeSlaa right now and then obviously not tight end. So, those are basically our options. I do think you probably go
24:11receiver. I mean, Adams, Twohill, Evans, like I don't know. I feel like receiver's probably the move. Um,
24:22I will say at the next pick, okay. I was saying the next pick the running back won't be great but it doesn't matter
24:27because we're not going to go running back anyway. We're going to go quarterback. So, I think the move is probably just get one of these really,
24:33really high-end wide recei- wide receivers.
24:38The only thing in the back of my mind is could we theoretically go Twohill in receiver and then get one of the
24:45quarterbacks? I just don't think they'll be there in eight. This team is pretty likely to take quarterback if we don't.
24:51Um, I think they all, you know, nine will be gone. You can and that chance more in a 10-team league. Maybe you just
24:57have one team that doesn't want to go quarterback, but I do think that they will. Also, I have enough concerns about
25:03Tua to where I don't think he's like some slam dunk pick this season. So, we'll go with Adams at this one.
25:09And then we'll lock in uh whichever quarterback is left. It looks like Trevor Lawrence is left. Uh we will take him and then we will go um
25:21look at the running back position after this. So, uh both these teams again that after we took Adams, both those teams
25:27did go quarterback, Burrow and Herbert, but that left us with Trevor Lawrence.
25:31Um and then they took Tua and DJ Moore, Evans, you know, all the wide receivers you'd think were off the board. Huge
25:37wide receiver run after that in the next round. Uh and then two tight ends also go. We love seeing tight ends when we
25:42already have one. So, uh at this point you're not going to quarterback or tight end, obviously. We're not taking one.
25:48And we've taken them early enough to where I don't think you have to double dip. This league has six bench spots. As
25:53you move into seven and definitely eight bench spots, seven bench spots especially, I'm I'm definitely fine taking that second tight end or
25:59quarterback even if you took one early.
26:01I would say here for Loveland, like I would take a backup quarterback before I took a backup tight end. But at six
26:07bench spots, I'm okay going with one, especially in a 10-team league cuz free agency is fine. Like you're not going to
26:12get to free agency and be like, "Oh no, the only quarterback is Shedeur Sanders." Like that's not going to happen. There's going to be okay free
26:16agent quarterback. So, I don't think you have to. Uh but if you didn't take a top nine quarterback, and again Lawrence is
26:22at like quarterback nine there, uh I would take um I would take two. I would go with, you know, your your Goff and Malik Willis,
26:32Kyler, and Stafford. Just take two that you like uh in those in those kind of like leader rounds.
26:39Uh we don't need to do that here, so I think our full bench can be running backs and receivers.
26:43Um it is telling us running back is plus 8%, wide receiver is plus 6%. Uh we do have three wide receivers, but the
26:51thought process there as well, teams perform better if they take wide receivers because it's full PPR. You know, you're just a little bit better
26:56off throwing that wide receiver into the flex spot. So, if we're thinking about our backup flex spot here, well, it's still um even though we already have
27:03that wide receiver, it's still beneficial to take wide receiver. Having said that, I still have So, we're pick 76.
27:11I said I'm not in on Trayvion right now, but we're at a pretty good spot for Trayvion. ADP has him 57, I have him 60,
27:19we're at 76. So, even though I'm behind ADP, don't love him, I have that factored in. And what do we always say?
27:25When I don't love a player, but they become the top in the rankings, they're a pretty darn good pick to make because
27:30I'm factoring in that I don't like him.
27:32If I'm wrong, it's more likely he over performs on projection than under. And if he's top player, that's great. Uh someone asked if I'm going to add in
27:38must draft and fade to uh basically like another column here.
27:43My only hesitation with that is like here. And Trayvion's not on the fade list, but let's say that he was, right?
27:48Cuz I'm I'm I'm kind of out on him this season. Stevenson is the starter. Um he's got more upside with Trayvion. He's
27:54got more upside especially in the receiving game as well. But the fact of the matter is he's going to open the
27:58season just like he did last year as the backup to Rhamondre Stevenson.
28:02You still take Henderson first because if they ever get to a split, Henderson is the more explosive player. He is the
28:08one that has more of that potential in the receiving game to really rack up receptions. And so, he has that higher
28:14ceiling. Like if there's an injury or if he just figures himself out blocking, he's got that potential to be a top 15 where
28:21Stevenson has less of that potential uh in his profile. So, we can lean Henderson at this spot. Um and the reason I wouldn't want to if Henderson
28:30was on the fade list is cuz well, he's at the top of the rankings. At the end of the day, the rankings are the
28:33rankings. Like for the most part, maybe I really like a player, but if they're not top in the rankings, I'm usually leaning towards the player who
28:40is top in the rankings. And so, I don't want to have a a thing here that says fade. You're like, "Oh, can't take him."
28:44Well, no, he's top in the rankings, so now he's actually a good pick because I have factored in that I don't like him
28:50as much. Someone suggested that I can kind of, as they become top in the rankings, it can turn off the fade. I
28:55just think that's going to be confusing for you guys. You're going to see fade and all of a sudden it's going to go
28:59away and you're going to be like, "Is that a glitch? Like was I Was I seeing things?" Like it's just going to be
29:02confusing for people, so I don't love it. I also don't love putting must draft because like if we scroll down here and
29:07like let's just say Michael Wilson was must draft. He's not right now, but let's say he was. People might do this,
29:13be like, "Oh, must draft, I got to take him." And say, "Well, no, I have a player ranked 60 right now. We're taking
29:17Michael Wilson at 87, right? That's a huge difference, but people do that. So, teams just end up um people end up drafting better teams when
29:25I do it this way versus uh the way people are suggesting. So, I want you guys to end up with better teams.
29:31Okay, we'll take Travion just because I do think um that running back cliff is going to happen pretty soon. Um he fits
29:37the format pretty well. He's got that ceiling. Uh I didn't think there was going to be a run at wide receiver that,
29:43you know, we were going to be scared of.
29:45So, we do that, pretty even mixture.
29:46BTJ, uh Wilson, and Pittman are gone. Uh and then a lot of running backs, Brooks, Price, Pollard, Harvey, and Warren off
29:54the board for us. So, easy pick here.
29:56Wide receiver is now definitely better, plus 13% plus 8%. Uh Josh Downs is not yet listed as a must draft player, but I
30:02think is going to be added as a must draft player soon. Uh great pick.
30:07No clue when uh Pierce is going to be back this season uh or if he can cuz like we were saying, "Oh, you know, if
30:14he comes back, he still has to figure out that role. He still has to actually be used in a way where he's a
30:20high-volume player." I have no idea if Alec Pierce can be a high-volume player, but I know Josh Downs can. I know Josh
30:24Downs can play on the outside. And if they allow him to play on the outside, he's going to have a monster season. Uh
30:30great great great great great pick.
30:31Probably going to be added to must draft. Okay.
30:34Um We've got Chase Brown, Achane, and Travion. We do need to lean running back a little bit. Um Um, data says it's 1%
30:41better, but it's still it's better to to add on that running back given some of the drop off is going to happen. But the
30:46drop off may not happen. We'll kind of scroll down in a second. We've got Puka, Ladd, Adams, and Josh Downs. And we've
30:51got Trevor Lawrence and Loveland. So we've got four picks left. I don't love Metcalf, but I also would not take QJ
30:59having already had Ladd McConkey. So you're looking at Metcalf versus Jayden Reed, Addison, Leavitt, Diggs. I feel like I'm wondering how much more I
31:08should move Diggs up. Um, I mean, he he could have 90 receptions this season. And I don't know that anyone else maybe Jayden Reed could do
31:18that as well.
31:19He's only going to play in three or four receiver sets. Diggs may be out there every single play.
31:23I don't know. I probably have to move Diggs up just a little bit, I feel like.
31:27Um, running backs gross. So we are kind of in that range where it's like, you know, Mong Monga does not fit the format.
31:33Corum really does not fit the format.
31:35Corum is way better in half PPR. Mason does not fit the format. I don't want to be drafting Rashad White this season. So
31:41we're all the way down to Keaton Mitchell as the next running back I'd feel decent about. So again, another thing where it's like, well, two running
31:47backs in three, right? That has allowed us taking Chase Brown and Achane in rounds two and three. That's allowed us to say we've got our two running backs.
31:54We don't need running back in the flex.
31:55As long as those two can stay healthy, we can kind of forego wide receiver for a long or running back for a long time
32:00and take these really good wide receivers and Loveland in these middle rounds. But Keaton Mitchell is like the next running back I really want on this
32:06team. After him it's probably Jonathan Coleman. Really warming up to him, looked fantastic in the preseason game.
32:12Amazing offensive line on that team, great offense. Like if someone were to break out, that'd be really good. Kind of worried about Harvey. Like Jonathan
32:17Coleman looked very good. We'll see if that continues. And then you're in the backups. So I really want one of or both
32:22of Keaton Mitchell or Coleman, but we don't need to draft them in this range.
32:26So definitely these wide receivers make a lot more sense. I guess I'll just lean with I mean, the projections do have
32:31um, Well, actually, the projections So people also say um rank is going to have a composite with ADP cuz I think again
32:40teams have turned out better when I've done that when I've added in a market adjustment to the rankings. If you don't
32:45want to draft with that, all you have to do is go to value. Just sort by value.
32:49Value is the raw projection, the raw ranking of what I have. Sort by that column if you don't want ADP mixed in. I
32:56think your teams turn out better when you adjust for ADP, but I guess do what you want. Um but when adjusting for ADP,
33:02it's a little bit better going with DK Metcalf and then again I said um I would not draft Quentin Johnston on the same
33:07team anyways that I drafted Ladd on so uh we'll draft DK Metcalf. Again, not super pumped about him, but I suppose in
33:13round 10 enough of a talent to where he could have a season where he still has, you know, 70 for a thousand and like you
33:20know, gets lucky with like 10 touchdowns and that would still be really good as our fifth receiver. I'm not going to
33:25feel like bad putting DK Metcalf into the flex spot any point this season. So, fine it to draft there. Wow, wide
33:32receivers really fall. Another reason, get your running backs before the cliff because uh wide receivers, there're decent ones available late. I mean, there's going to
33:40be 15 rounds here. 14, 15, like we're only having three picks left, we're taking a skill player, and we're at the
33:46DK Metcalf Wan'Dale range, right? Like the top players are QJ who I would again take if I didn't have uh Ladd here, but like Jayden Reed's a
33:53really solid pick. Lemon for the upside later on. Stefon Diggs who I think I need to move up. Honestly, I think I I
33:58should probably draft Stefon Diggs in this one. Um but the running backs are still very gross. Um I think we can hold
34:04off one more um in next round take Keeton and then after that like we could probably go receiver, Keeton, Jona Coleman. I think that's a
34:13really good end to this draft uh and so I will try and do that. Jayden Reed Ah.
34:21That's unfortunate.
34:22So uh Keeton goes over here.
34:27Rather rather unfortunate, but end of the day, it's okay. Maybe we should have honestly That was probably just dumb.
34:33That was dumb. We we should not have taken Jayden Reed there. I I again, I'm saying I should move Diggs over. Diggs
34:38has that lower ADP. I'd be fine with Golden as well. You know I like Jayden Higgins. I like Concepcion. Romeo Doubs
34:44is fine. Uh Stribling would be fine to take. Denzel Boston would be fine to take as that last wide receiver.
34:50Uh Shaheed, I shot on Hunter. Uh Trey Harris maybe we got him pretty late for a 10-team league at that point, but all
34:55these guys are totally fine to make swap out Yeah, swap out Jayden Reed for Keeton Mitchell. And then maybe maybe I'll just show you what the
35:03team would be here. We can go Can I do that? I'm pretty sure I can.
35:07Yeah.
35:09Can't do that in your hometown league, but when we have control of the board here, um again, Malinger I just I don't
35:14know about the injury. Like if he's going to miss a month, I don't know yet, and I'm going to be moving him down the
35:17rankings after this. So, take Keeton, then you go in at wide receiver, and you stick take Stefon Diggs, uh and then you hope that Jonah Coleman is
35:26there, and you take him, but honestly, you could have just gone Jonah Coleman, and then uh receiver after that. Uh do
35:32that, and then we will go defense, then kicker. Uh Broncos just a really good defense. Not a great uh opening weeks, but they're an amazing defense
35:44overall. Good opening for the Steelers.
35:46I know Patriots don't playing at I think I think it's at Seattle. It's disgusting. Um I would honestly probably just take the Broncos and see what
35:54happens. Even though they don't have a good opening week, who do they actually play?
35:58Cuz they're amazing defense.
36:01Open the Broncos schedule up. Uh oh, it's the Chiefs.
36:06Yikes. And it looks like it might be at Arrowhead.
36:09Uh Uh it's preseason.
36:14Yikes.
36:17Yeah, it's at Arrowhead. So, that's not amazing, but uh after that, you at least have that okay second week, and then a terrible third
36:25week. So, it's not it's not great, honestly. Uh for those of you who like double dipping, you could you could take
36:29two. Um I don't know. I'd probably still take the Broncos, honestly, and I would just say, "Give me that really good defense
36:35at this spot." Uh and then we will go with uh I don't really care. We'll go with Butker, but we'll go with whatever
36:41uh kicker is in that range. So, 80th percentile team best in this one, worst quarterback. Some people have complained about the quarterback. They're like,
36:49"Oh, I drafted a good quarterback and someone that double dipped late did better than me." Number one, data actually agrees agrees with that being a
36:56better strategy. So, in, you know, the last decade, teams that draft that like only one kind of mid quarterback like I did, like a
37:05Herbert or a Trevor Lawrence, as opposed to a team that double dips later on on like a Goff and a Kyler, those teams
37:11that double dip do actually perform better. So, that's why I have the adjustment in there. And basically, it's just so hard to eat I have to assign
37:16some value to that second quarterback. I can't assign it zero value. And when that happens, it does jump over. So, if
37:22you only take one mid quarterback, you're going to be last year, but it's also adjusted into the score. It's not like these are equally weighted.
37:27Obviously, I'm weighting wide receiver and running back more than quarterback and tight end. So, uh I think the team worked out really well.
37:35Um draft rewind. I was wondering on this one. So, the computer model is saying had I gone Parker Washington instead in
37:44the seventh round, it's saying on average, and again, this is this that same thing of well, it's saying, "Okay, you could double dip late." So, you can
37:50take Parker Washington, grab another must-draft wide receiver. Um your wide receivers are much more locked in. Maybe Trevor Lawrence falls to you in round
37:58eight, or maybe you just take two later on, not needing Stefon Diggs as much. Um I can agree with that. So, we would move
38:04to a from a B+ to an A- under that change. Um I don't agree with Javonte over Loveland in the format. Um they're
38:11saying go QJ, but I didn't want the correlation there. Um and again, it's fine. Keenan I'll take if I have uh Lat.
38:17So, I do agree with uh with some of those opinions from the computer model, but I like the team.
38:24Puka, Ladd, Adams, Downs, DK Metcalf, Diggs at receiver. We've got Chase Brown, Devon Achane, Treyvion Henderson, Keaton Mitchell, and Jonah Coleman at
38:34running back. We've got Loveland at tight end, and we've got uh where is he? Trevor Lawrence. I can't see him on screen, but Trevor Lawrence.
38:41We got Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
38:43Let me know what you think in the comment section down below. Uh that'll do it for this one though. Please leave
38:48a like if you are still here. Please subscribe to the channel if you're new.
38:51And if you want to draft with those dynamic rankings, um takes all the strategy off your plate.
38:58Completely does it. It says, "What does the data say as the way we should be leaning?" If you want to draft with
39:02that, no one else has that in the industry. The fantasyfootballadvice.com.
39:05And you can practice with it cuz it's built into mock draft as you just saw here. When you do your actual draft, it
39:10is exactly the same. Like the actual draft screen looks the same as a mock draft screen. All you have to do is
39:15click players who were drafted, players to your team, and you're going to be able to see how things are drafted. So, if
39:19you want that, the fantasyfootballadvice.com.
39:22So, that'll do it for this one. Thank you all for watching. Again, leave a like if you are still here. Subscribe if
39:26you are new. I'll catch you all on the next one.
