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Must Draft Running Backs - 2026 Fantasy Football Advice

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

28 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 5, 2026
Published
Wed, August 5, 2026
11
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
Keaton MitchellCam AkersCharlie KolarChase BrownChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryDavid NjokuJames CookJonathon BrooksWoody Marks
Player analysis

Player insights

11

Cam Akers

PositiveValue6:00

Cam Akers is RB19 by composite ADP, typically drafted mid-fourth round, but a must-draft under specific roster construction. Akers was RB7 in adjusted points per game last season. He's a featured RB with elite goal-line security and high touchdown floor: he had seven touchdowns in 6.25 healthy games last season and is described as a 'literal bowling ball' that cannot be taken off the field near the goal line. Backup Tyron Tracy Jr. will not displace him in the red zone. Touchdown certainty is the primary appeal, especially valuable in a lower-scoring fantasy environment where TD upside is increasingly important. Must-draft specifically when you lack two RBs in the first two rounds or when you've taken an elite WR or TE early.

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Charlie Kolar

NegativeRole23:00

James Cook notes the Chargers gave Charlie Kolar a $25 million deal ($17 million guaranteed), describing him as a great blocking tight end who will also be used in the receiving game. Cook cites this investment as part of Mike McDaniel's heavy-personnel offensive construction, signaling Kolar's role in the run-first, play-action-heavy scheme.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue0:42

Chase Brown is James Cook's top round-two pick, currently RB10 by composite ADP (ESPN has him at pick 23, but he averages mid-second round). Last season he was RB5 in games where Joe Burrow started and finished, despite playing behind a much worse offensive line than the Bengals will have this season. The Bengals' offensive line is now league average, which Cook says unlocks a very high ceiling for the offense and could lead the league in touchdowns. Brown has role certainty: behind him are 31-year-old Samaj Perine and Taj Brooks (17 career touches, not good). Joe Burrow recently called Brown a featured running back. Cook rates Brown as having a round-one profile and calls him a must-draft player anytime he makes round two.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveRole17:31

Panthers lead back with proven lack of explosiveness and inefficiency. James Cook uses Hubbard as a negative comparison point to Jonathan Brooks, stating: "We have multiple years of Chuba as the lead back and he has proven time and time again that he is extremely replaceable, has no explosiveness, literally the least explosive running back in the entire NFL last season. He does not make people miss. He is inefficient in the receiving game. Like that has happened for years now. It's not going to all of a sudden change this season." This context supports Brooks as the upside target in the Panthers backfield.

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David Montgomery

PositiveValue11:43

David Montgomery is James Cook's most confident take of any player at any position this season. Cook projects him as a top-7 to top-20 running back with extreme consistency and stability; he will be a must-play every week in rankings due to his consistent involvement in the Texans offense, especially in the red zone. Montgomery will handle the bulk of carries and goal-line work despite Woody Marks in the backfield; he has averaged 14.2 touches per game while playing alongside Jalen Gibbs, demonstrating Dan Campbell's confidence in him. Cook emphasizes that Campbell does not split workload with elite players unless both are very good, and Montgomery's 220+ touches in six of seven NFL seasons, 60% touchdown rate, and 11-game injury history prove his value to multiple coaching staffs. Cook recommends taking Montgomery in round 5 as a high-certainty win despite lacking top-three upside; he emphasizes that the extreme stability and certainty of a top-7 season from a fifth-round pick is preferable to chasing upside at this stage of the draft. Cook frames it as a strategic choice: take the win in round 5, then shoot for the moon in later rounds. Montgomery is explicitly ranked as the safest pick you can make across all positions this season.

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David Njoku

NegativeRole23:20

James Cook notes the Chargers signed David Njoku on an incentive-based contract as part of Mike McDaniel's heavy-personnel tight end investment. Cook cites this move alongside other tight end acquisitions (Charlie Kolar, Alec Engold) as evidence of McDaniel's run-first, play-action-heavy offensive scheme.

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James Cook

PositiveRole0:27

Camp reports indicate an increased receiving game role for Cook this season, which James Cook identifies as the only thing holding back his ceiling. Cook was the league's leading rusher last year and is capable of scoring 15 touchdowns, theoretically up to 20 if he gets lucky; the added receiving role via designed targets and screen passes unlocks a crazy high ceiling. Cook has drafted him at picks 11 and 14 in late first round, positioning him as a must-draft RB with top-tier upside.

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Jonathon Brooks

PositiveBreakout17:17

Jonathan Brooks is a round 8 upside play with strong camp performance and lead RB role on Panthers. James Cook acknowledges injury concerns (two torn ACLs) but argues that rounds 7-11 historically produce few league-winning RBs, making upside the priority in this range. Brooks is "having a fantastic camp and at this point looks poised to open the season as the lead running back on the Panthers." Compared to Chuba Hubbard ("extremely replaceable, has no explosiveness, literally the least explosive running back in the entire NFL last season"), Brooks is "a massive step up from Chuba when healthy." Even if he doesn't start, "he will be the one that is used in the receiving game. That is still upside we want in fantasy." Cook's stance: "I don't care that maybe he has a much better chance of getting injured than other running backs. This is not round three. This is round eight... Shoot for the moon. Take someone who actually has upside."

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveSleeper20:29

League-winner projection at pick 150 ADP with elite confidence and half-PPR ranking of 104. James Cook's second-most confident take of the season: "Katon Mitchell will be a league winning running back if he can stay healthy. And the fact that I can say that at pick 150 or 189 on sleeper... the only outcome I can envision where he's not a league winning running back this season is injury at pick 150, that means you have to be getting that every single time." Cook recommends drafting 6 rounds ahead of ADP if necessary: "take him six rounds ahead of ADP if you have to on sleeper. If the ADP on your site is 150, perfectly comfortable taking him in like the mid120s if you need to. I have him at 104 right now in half PPR, so well ahead of ADP." On Underdog, Mitchell goes at 135-136; Cook targets him at 120 or earlier. Mitchell was the single most explosive running back in the entire NFL last season on just 59 rush attempts, hitting 20+ mph a league-leading seven times—more than backs with 350+ touches. He handled 196 touches in college (maxing at 228), demonstrating workload capability. Mike McDaniel signed him to a 2-year, $11.5M deal with $5M guaranteed, signaling McDaniel's confidence in his role. Cook expects Mitchell to replicate Achane's rookie-season breakout trajectory under McDaniel: explosive production on limited touches (11 per game), posting RB1 numbers weekly with high touchdown upside. Cook cites near-identical physical profiles (Achane 1 inch taller, 10 lbs heavier; identical BMI), comparable rookie efficiency (Mitchell 8.4 YPC vs. Achane 7.8 YPC), and similar 40-times (Mitchell 4.37 vs. Achane 4.32). Cook interprets McDaniel's personnel moves—wanting Mitchell, Alec Engold, David Njoku, and Charlie Kolar—as a signal that McDaniel is building a heavy-personnel, run-first offense with elite play-action passing, expecting Mitchell to be utilized similarly to Achane's rookie season with explosive efficiency and touchdown upside driving RB1 production despite modest touch volume.

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PositiveProjection20:44

James Cook projects Keaton Mitchell as a league-winning running back if healthy; ranks him at 104 in half PPR, well ahead of ADP (150 on most sites, 135-136 on Underdog). Cook envisions no outcome where Mitchell isn't league-winning except injury, making him a must-draft target six rounds ahead of ADP in the mid-120s. James Cook expects Keaton Mitchell to replicate Achane's rookie-season breakout trajectory under Mike McDaniel: explosive production on limited touches (11 per game), posting RB1 numbers weekly with high touchdown upside. Cook cites near-identical physical profiles (Achane 1 inch taller, 10 lbs heavier; identical BMI), comparable rookie efficiency (Mitchell 8.4 YPC vs. Achane 7.8 YPC), and similar 40-times (Mitchell 4.37 vs. Achane 4.32). Last season Mitchell was the most explosive RB in the NFL on just 59 carries, hitting 20+ mph seven times—more than any RB with 350+ touches. James Cook interprets Mike McDaniel's personnel moves—wanting Mitchell, Alec Engold, David Njoku, and Charlie Kolar—as a signal that McDaniel is building a heavy-personnel, run-first offense with elite play-action passing. Cook expects Mitchell to be utilized similarly to Achane's rookie season (not the high-volume featured role of recent years), with explosive efficiency and touchdown upside driving RB1 production despite modest touch volume. James Cook notes Keaton Mitchell handled 196 touches in college (maxing out at 228), similar to Achane's college workload (154 touches, maxing at 232), addressing durability concerns. Cook emphasizes Mitchell's ability to handle a full workload in college and his explosive efficiency last season (8.4 YPC as a rookie, 20+ mph hits on 59 carries) as evidence he can sustain production if given opportunity.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole15:00

James Cook dismisses concerns about Woody Marks splitting the workload with Montgomery; Cook argues Marks is not a true workhorse back and cannot handle NFL volume. Cook notes Marks would limp off the field after 15 touches, was not effective on the ground, and is a scat back suited only for receiving and change-of-pace roles. Cook emphasizes that Marks will not receive goal-line usage or 25-touch workloads, and Montgomery will get all the carries he can handle.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

251
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back in the video going over my five mustdraft running backs this season.
0:05These are not necessarily only the highest upside running backs or only the safest running backs in drafts, but in my opinion, they're the best combination
0:13of upside and risk given where they're going by ADP. If you were going to highlight like physically highlight or circle a few running backs in the
0:22rankings that you are willing to reach for, these are the ones I would do that for. I want to start off with two
0:27honorable mentions. Um, I've really liked starting, especially obviously you can only really do it a late first round pick, but in the late first round, I
0:35have loved starting off with James Cook and Ashton Genty in that late first round. This season at times I've gotten Cook and Genty at the um it was pick 11.
0:46I did it recently. Pick 11 and 14. Camp reports have all indicated an increased receiving game role for James Cook this
0:54year. That's pretty exciting because that was really the only thing holding him back. He was phenomenal on the ground. Obviously, last year he was the
1:01league's leading rusher. He's capable of scoring 15 theoretically could get lucky and score 20 touchdowns this season.
1:08It's always been the receptions as to why he can't push for that like, you know, top three or number one overall
1:14season. If that's going to happen, even if it's just a couple more designed targets, a couple more screen passes, that unlocks a crazy high ceiling. And
1:23to get that in the late first round, that's pretty incredible. Uh, and then with Genty, I really just think people are underrating how good he is and how
1:30good he actually was last season just because the offense around him was so unbelievably bad. They had no other playmakers because uh Brock Bowers got
1:40injured and then was kind of playing injured at times. Uh, the offensive line was terrible. The offensive scheme wasn't that great. That all improves
1:47this year. Better offensive line.
1:49Bowowers is healthy. Great scheme. Like I just think both these two are extraordinarily talented players.
1:56They're both honestly at this point if we're getting the receiving role from James Cook, they both have profiles that should typically cost you a top seven
2:03pick. So to be able to get both of them, you know, late first round, early second round, it's a really, really high
2:09ceiling start to a draft. The only reason that I'm not going to technically include them in this video is one to
2:15talk about more players, but two, uh, because everyone in the first round's a great pick. Like there's it's not like you can look at round one and be like,
2:20"Oh, that's a bad pick and that's a bad pick and that's a bad pick." Now, they all have great ceilings. They're all
2:24very safe. Uh so that's why they also go at the end of round one because there's also great picks that go before them. So
2:30realistically, you can call every one of the top 13 or 14 players this season a mustdraft player. Uh so wanted to talk
2:38about some guys going a little bit later in draft. So we will start off not really that much later, but we'll start
2:42off with talking about what I think is the best round two pick if Genty does not fall into round two. So, if Jensy
2:48does go at the tail end of round one or at like the one-two turn, I think the best pick you can make in round two is
2:55Chase Brown. Uh, currently the running back 10 by Composite ADP. Somehow on ESPN, he goes at the 23 turn. Uh, but on
3:03average, he goes in the middle of the second round. Last season, he was running back five uh in games that Joe
3:09Burrow started and finished. Um, that was behind a much worse offensive line uh for the Bengals last year than they will have this season. That's just like
3:18a theme. Like every single year we sit here and talk about how amazing all these skill players are, but how terrible the offensive line is in Cincy
3:27and how that's not going to hold them back from being good. They're good every single season, but it holds them back
3:32from being a team that is just destroying guys and a team that's like leading the league in touchdowns per game. The offensive line is fixed. I
3:40mean, it's not like top 10, but it's league average. And that's really all we've been asking for. All we want is
3:45just a little bit of time for Joe Burrow and this could be an offense that leads the league in touchdowns. Um so fixing
3:53the offensive line and getting it decent that's unlocks a very high ceiling. It's very exciting for us in fantasy. Um the
4:00other exciting part about Chase Brown is just the certainty. We want not only for these guys in rounds one, two, three to
4:08have this high-end ceiling, but we want to know with a very high level of certainty that the role is secure.
4:14Behind Chase Brown, it's a 31-year-old Samaj perin and Taj Brooks who has 17 career touches and is not good. Joe Burrow even came out and said recently,
4:23Chase Brown is a featured running back.
4:25There is no reason to think that Joe Burrow is lying to us. Obviously, he is not. So, we've got a featured running
4:31back on a team that very well could lead the league in touchdowns per game who showed us last season that he was a top
4:39five running back when Joe Burrow was healthy and he's capable of having that role and he's there in like the mid to
4:46late second round. I mean, Chase Brown has a round one profile, so he's a m mustdraft player. Anytime he makes round
4:53two, like literally anytime if it says round two on the board, you can take Chase Brown. Um truly the only knock
5:00that people have is that he's inefficient, which I understand, but that's why he doesn't go as a top three pick. Like seriously, like if he was
5:08like an efficient running back where you're like he's going to average five and a half yards per carry, explosive runs every every game. These uh
5:15receptions are are, you know, highly efficient, he would be going as like the third overall player in drafts, not the middle to the late second round at
5:24times. But volume is king in fantasy and especially volume on elite offenses. If we know the team's going to be great, we
5:32know the offensive line is better and we know this guy is going to be peppered with targets and get plenty of work on
5:37the ground and be highly involved in the red zone. I do not care if he's only going to have 4.4 or 4.5 yards per
5:44carry. And who knows, that was behind a bad offensive line. He could average 46, 47, 48, and people are not going to be
5:51complaining about the touches he's getting. He's getting 20 touches every week with red zone usage, receiving usage, and he's averaging 46,47 on the
5:58ground. I mean, the upside is absolutely insane for Chase Brown this season. Next up, Cam Scataboo. So, Scatteraboo is a running back 19 by composite ADP right
6:07now coming off the board typically in like the middle of the fourth round.
6:10Now, Scataboo is a mustdraft player under a very specific build. I love this season starting off running back, running back. There is a drop off in my
6:20opinion from the rounds one and two running backs into round three, round four, round five. Like the level of certainty, the level of upside in my
6:27opinion drops off. And so I want two running backs in the first two rounds unless I'm getting a superstar wide receiver or Brock Bowers. Basically, I
6:36want to go running back running back unless that's the case. If you don't though and you take a Bowers, you take a
6:43Justin Jefferson, Alman Russ St. Brown, these guys that are so locked in, so talented at other positions, and you leave rounds one and two with with one
6:51running back or my goodness, if you leave the third round with only one running back, then I think uh Cam Scataboo is the single best pick you can
6:59make in round four. Um, if you go running back, running back, definitely if you go three running backs in a row,
7:06but if you go running back, running back, I would lean a little bit more towards Lovelin in round four, I'd maybe
7:11lean towards some of the great wide receivers going in round four. So, again, under a specific build where you do not have two running backs in the
7:18first two rounds. I think if you do that, then Scadoo is someone that I really want to be taking. He was a
7:24running back seven in adjusted points per game last season. Uh, very quickly became the starter. I mean, he had uh remember late camp he had that hamstring
7:33injury and we were like, h, you know, this is something we're excited about, but rookies missing time in camp, entering the season with a hamstring
7:39injury. You never know if there's going to be, you know, recurrence with that, a setback. Uh, you never know if that
7:44missed time really, you know, delays a breakout. It did not. He had like one game where they kind of eased him back
7:50into the workload and then boom, second game back, immediately a featured running back. I mean, he was getting, you know, so many touches every single
7:58week. He was used in the receiving game.
8:00He was used as the goal line. And I think that is the appeal with Scanaboo.
8:05No one's being used to him at the goal line, used over him at the goal line.
8:08Like the man had seven touchdowns in six and a 6.25 healthy games last season.
8:14There's no way they can look at him, the type of player that he is, a literal bowling ball out there, and be like, you
8:19know what, take him off the field. We got to get Tyron Tracy Jr. out here. No, it's not going to happen. Whenever they
8:26get close, that ball is going to Scataboo. So, we know the touchdown floor is really high. Even if the offensive line's not like that amazing,
8:33even if this offense isn't going to be top seven, even probably top 10 in points per game, we know that the
8:38touchdowns will be there for him. And that touchdown certainty is something that we're going to kind of lean into more this season. You see me talk about
8:45uh him. You're going to see me talk about in a second Montgomery. Uh you guys know I love Mike Evans, right?
8:50These players who we know are going to score a lot of touchdowns. It's becoming more important to identify those players as fantasy scoring has tilted or fantasy
9:00scoring has tilted lower scoring. I guess fantasy football in general has fewer points. Um because football is changing a little bit. We're seeing
9:08fewer drives per game, fewer plays per game. Obviously, if there's less volume, less yardage, you're going to see fewer fantasy points because teams in the NFL
9:17are shifting their mindset to understanding that like if we're getting amazing field position, right? So often drives are starting at the 35 yard line
9:26now whereas a couple years ago they started at the 20. At the 35 you need like one good first down and all of a
9:33sudden you're into field goal range. You know like obviously you can't get just at 10 yards but you know you don't need
9:37to get that many yards to be in field goal range. Teams understand this and so they're like okay we got to play
9:42conservatively. We got to make sure we don't turn it over. We have to make sure that we're not taking too many shot
9:47plays, too many high-risisk plays because there's fewer possessions for us every game. And it's so easy to score points at a baseline. Maybe not score a
9:55touchdown, but so easy to score points.
9:57The teams are being more conservative.
9:58And when they're doing that, we're decreasing volume, which is going to make touchdowns a higher percentage of the your score in your lineup. And so
10:08when that's occurring, you know, locking up running backs in round four that are capable of scoring 15 touchdowns this season, that unlocks, you know, a really
10:18high-end ceiling. But it's just it's a much better move to be targeting those players. But it's not only good to target those players, it's great to
10:25target them when they also come with the receptions. He had 22 receptions through 6.25 healthy games last season. That didn't come out of nowhere. Receptions
10:34were a huge part of his game in college.
10:36So, it's not like some random fluke where like he had one spiked game because they were trailing by a bunch and he had a bunch of dump offs. In
10:43college, he was an incredible receiving back. And that's why we talked about him last season. I mean, like, if he's actually going to be used as a goal line
10:49back and receiving back, it doesn't even matter if he averages like three and a half yards per carry. He's got what it
10:54takes to be a high-end producer in fantasy. That's what we saw. That's what we will see going forward. But again, I
10:59just want to make this very clear. Round four is awesome. Like, it honestly doesn't matter what position besides quarterback. Don't do quarterback in
11:08round four unless Josh Allen makes it to like the middle of round four or something like that. Um, Loveland is an
11:13amazing pick. The wide receivers are amazing picks. So, I want to be targeting them, but under the specific build where you did not start running
11:22back running back, I think the drop off at running back is significant this season. I want to be locking up more of
11:28them early on. And so, if you go for a Bowowers, we're not taking Lovelin. If you go for a Jefferson, well, maybe
11:34we're not taking like a Lad or Nigbuka or something like that in round four.
11:38Opt for Scataboo. if you don't go running back running back. I just want to make that very clear. Next up, uh
11:43probably my most confident take of any player at any position this season. It's who I alluded to before, David Montgomery. Uh pretty darn unlikely that
11:52he ends up as like a top three running back. It could happen. I mean, maybe if uh the Texans defense remains
11:57incredible. Maybe they end up as like the number one defense in the NFL.
12:00They're constantly providing turnovers.
12:03Um they're constantly up late in games.
12:06teams can't come back and he gets a bunch of uh rushing workload. But I think the path to top three is probably
12:11the touchdowns that there's so many turnovers, so many short fields that they just score touchdowns at a high rate and he's featured in the red zone.
12:17That's the path to top three. But again, I don't think it matters that much that maybe he can't be a top three running
12:24back. maybe like top seven is more in his range of outcomes because I feel super confident that every single week when we do the running back rankings
12:32video or just the whole rankings video in general, we talk about running backs that every time we get to David Montgomery, we're going to say, "Oh,
12:37David Montgomery here, must drive player." And we're not even going to really have to go over um what the matchup is, what the game script looks
12:44like, that he's going to be so consistently involved in this offense, especially in the red zone, that every week we're saying you just have to play
12:50Dave Montgomery. He's always going to project as a top 20 running back. The two things I hear people argue with against David Montgomery are that uh the
13:00report that he and Marks are going to split the workload and the fact that Montgomery isn't that good of running back. Now, I'm not trying to like attack
13:08you if you believe one of these two things. I just couldn't disagree more.
13:12The point that Monty hasn't been good is crazy to me. He scored a touchdown in 60% of his career games. Uh he's handled
13:20220 plus touches in six of seven seasons in the NFL. He's only missed 11 games in seven years. He's averaged 14.2 touches
13:30per game while playing alongside Jir Gibbs. That last one is the one that matters most to me. Most coaches don't just overload players with touches
13:40unless they're good. And Dan Campbell especially is not going to give you the football unless you're very good, right?
13:47um he's perfectly willing to condense the volume of offense to like four or five players if he only has four or five
13:54players worthy of giving touch touches to. And we all know that Jir Gibbs is a superstar and Gibbs has only missed two
14:01games in his career. So the fact that Monty has still handled 14.2 touches per game and averaged 11 touchdowns per
14:09season playing alongside Jir Gibbs tells us he's good. because if he wasn't, Dan Campbell is not splitting the workload with Jir Gibbs and Dave Montgomery. And
14:21this is going to sound a little bit wild coming from me especially, but I think sometimes the fantasy community falls in
14:28love with analytics just a little bit too much and forgets the fact that volume is king and volume tells us something about how coaches view
14:37players, especially at running back. It is a choice to trot a running back onto the field and give them a touch. And if
14:45teams are doing it over and over again, multiple coaching staffs on multiple teams willing to give a player 220 plus touches, that is potentially the most or
14:56second most on your entire team, willing to give someone that many touches. We know that they are good at football and
15:03they will continue to get touches on other teams unless they get too old.
15:07Dave Montgomery is not too old and especially when that team trades for them and then gives them a generous new contract after that trade. We know that
15:18they looked at this and said we want him to fill uh the Joe Mixon role because Joe Mixon is apparently not going to be
15:26around anymore. I don't know what's happened with that situation, but he's done with. Woody Marx is just not that very good. Uh not very good. He truly he
15:35can't handle the NFL workload. Like he would limp off the field every time he got like 15 touches in a game. Um and he
15:42really was not that good on the ground.
15:44Um and we know the certainty, right?
15:47When they get to the goal line, they're not putting Woody Marks out there. Like Woody Marks, I don't want to say he's
15:51like a bad running back, but he's a scat back. He he's someone who's good in the receiving game, good on like a change of
15:57pace role with pass catching abilities, but he's not someone that you give 25 touches to and goal line usage to. like
16:04he's just not going to perform that way.
16:05That was never in his prospect profile.
16:07It was not what he showed last season.
16:09That's not who he is. He's fine, but he's fine as okay, Dave Montgomery has too many touches right now. Take him off
16:14the field, go get some receptions, some limited usage, and be good in that way.
16:19But Monty's going to get all the carries he can handle. He's going to score plenty of touchdowns. He's going to have
16:24enough receiving work to again easily project as a top 20 running back every single week. and to have that extreme stability, that extreme level of
16:34certainty that you can just chuck him into running back two every single week and be totally fine with the production.
16:41You don't always have to lean upside and especially at this part of the draft when we're in like this round five
16:46range. We want upside, but I'm just saying he doesn't have the upside to be top three. I will take a top seven
16:53season from running back in my, you know, fifth round pick. When it comes with the level of certainty that he's just not gonna disappoint at this ADP,
17:02plenty of rounds, we can shoot for the moon. Just take the win. It is an absolute win drafting Montgomery. Take the win. Next up, next two, we are going
17:12to shoot for the moon. So, if we're not doing that early on, we're just taking the wins later rounds. Go for it. First
17:17up, Jonathan Brooks. Um, I know half of you just rolled your eyes or closed out of the video. And listen, I get it. Been
17:23a brutal two years for Brooks coming off two torn sales. The thing is this late in the draft, we're in round eight right
17:30now. It is very difficult to find ceiling at running back. And your chances of hitting on a league winner at the running back position are extremely
17:39low. The vast majority of the time when you draft a running back this late, they're either going to be a complete
17:44bust or someone that you occasionally throw into flex spot when you desperately need them. Ryan Heath over at Fantasy Points uh put together a
17:53really good research article uh kind of going over league winners um and he pointed to the data saying rounds seven through 11 basically a dead zone. It's
18:02not the classic quote unquote running back dead zone we always talk about.
18:06Those are two different things, but I'm saying rounds seven through 11 pretty much never produce a league winning running back. You're getting those early
18:16or you're getting those very late when there's a starting running back that gets injured and you have the backup.
18:20Those are basically the two situations that happen much more often than a round 7 through 11 running back breaking out and being a legal. So, under that lens,
18:29knowing that any running back you draft in this range, and you're going to have to draft running backs in this range,
18:34any running back you pick has a pretty low chance of actually being a difference maker in fantasy. So, why on earth would you not lean into the upside
18:44of someone like Jonathan Brooks, who by all accounts is having a fantastic camp and at this point looks poised to open
18:51the season as the lead running back on the Panthers. We have multiple years of Chuba as the lead back and he has proven
18:58time and time again that he is extremely replaceable, has no explosiveness, literally the least explosive running back in the entire NFL last season. He
19:06does not make people miss. He is inefficient in the receiving game. Like that has happened for years now. It's not going to all of a sudden change this
19:14season. Brooks is a massive step up from Chuba when healthy. And at the very least, even if he doesn't become the
19:22starting running back, he will be the one that is used in the receiving game.
19:26That is still upside we want in fantasy.
19:28But truly, the appeal in this range is that no one has a great chance of hitting. No one has a super high floor.
19:38Many of these players are purely early down grinders, purely pass catching backs with no chance of becoming anything more than that. And so, and
19:47then you wait a little bit longer and you're basically all into like the handcuff range. So, it's not like a little bit later we're like, "Oh, look,
19:52the upside's back." It's like, "Yeah, if the starter gets injured because most weeks are going to have zero, one, or two fantasy points, right?" That's the
19:59range that you're generally in right now. We're a little bit before the pure handcuff, but we're in a range where guys have defined roles, and it's really
20:06not going to change all that much. So, I don't care that maybe he has a much better chance of getting injured than
20:12other running backs. This is not round three. This is round eight. uh you're probably already at three starting running backs. This is a bench running
20:18back for you. Shoot for the moon. Take someone who actually has upside. And speaking of upside, we're going to go even later in the draft for my second
20:29most confident take this season. Katon Mitchell will be a league winning running back if he can stay healthy. And the fact that I can say that at pick 150
20:40or 189 on sleeper, those have to change.
20:44you'd think, but take him six rounds ahead of ADP if you have to on sleeper.
20:49If the ADP on your site is 150, perfectly comfortable taking him in like the mid120s if you need to. I have him
20:56at 104 right now in half PPR, so well ahead of ADP. Um, the fact that I can say the only outcome I can envision
21:05where he's not a league winning running back this season is injury at pick 150, that means you have to be getting that
21:12every single time. On underdog right now, I think he goes at 135, 136. Every time it hits 120, I'm taking him. Like I
21:21want him to be on all my teams, my most drafted player. um similar sentiment to Brooks that they the reasoning behind
21:28them breaking out is completely different, but the sentiment behind um Katon and Brooks is really who cares about floor at running back this late
21:37and especially when we say this late at uh Katon Mitchell's price tag, you know, when you're drafting someone among the handcuffs now completely in that range
21:46where all these running backs are getting, you know, zero, one, two, three fantasy points every week if the starter doesn't go down, those guys are not
21:52going to impact your team in any way.
21:54So, like Draft Keaton, like guys, he's going to be a league winner if he stays healthy. Mike McDaniel literally hung wanted posters of this kid in the GM's
22:04office. Um, did it for him and Alec Engled. Uh, just look at what the team does. Like, how do they spend their
22:10money in free agency, how do they not only talk about players, what are the actions that they do? Mike McDaniel comes over after leaving uh, well, kind
22:18of being forced out of uh, Dolphins, right? He goes from being one of like the hottest head coaches in the NFL,
22:26right? Everyone wants a piece of Mike McDaniel, wants to learn this system to falls apart, the offense can't stay healthy, the offensive line stinks, and
22:34all of a sudden he's like cast away out of um Miami. You think he's going to go in somewhere and like play it safe and
22:43be like, "Ah, well, you know, I don't really want to put together the offense that I want." Uh no, he's going out
22:48there and being like, "I'm back. I'm good. I know how to call an offense. I know how to design an offense. You guys
22:55are just like underrating how the impact he can have to this team. So when he comes over and he says, "I want Katon
23:02Mitchell. I want Alec Engold." Okay, he wants those two things. When on top of that, they go out and they say, "I want
23:08David and Jooku on an incentive based contract and I want to give a massive $25 million deal, $17 million guaranteed to Charlie Kolar, who is a great
23:18blocking tight end who will also be used in the receiving game." And honestly, combination of these two is making me very worried about Ronda Gatson right
23:24now. Um, when he goes out and he does that, he says, "Give me a fullback. Give me all these tight ends. Give me an
23:30explosive running back." He's telling us what he's doing. He wants to have a super elite run game that is going to
23:38have a top five efficiency passing game because not only does he have the skilled players to do that finally um and the offensive line to do that now,
23:46but because the run game is going to be so good and his scheme is so good at capitalizing off of play action that he
23:54wants to build that heavy personnel line. He wants to have that explosive running back element and he wants to build the passing game on top of it.
24:01That's how Mike McDaniel wants to run this offense. And it tells us he wants this to be the new Moert and Achan. And
24:07I really think that he's going to utilize Katon Mitchell in a similar way that he did when Achan broke out. Not
24:14necessarily like the last two seasons when he was featuring Achan. He was getting a million targets used as this huge featured running back. That's not
24:22what I envision for Keaton Mitchell. But remember when Achan broke out in that rookie season when he was only getting like 11 touches per game, but he was
24:30posting like running back one numbers every week and you're like, "How do I bench this kid? He just keeps going off
24:35every single game. He's scoring touchdowns. He's creating explosives.
24:39Like it's 11 touches, but I think I have to start him every single week." That's the production I'm expecting from Katon
24:44Mitchell this season because the comparisons between Katon Mitchell and Achan are a lot closer than you think.
24:50Achan is one inch taller, 10 pounds heavier. So the BMI is basically identical. Uh Achan broke out 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie. Katon broke out
24:598.4 yards per carry as a rookie at the combine. Han 4.32 yards or yards per carry 4.32 uh second 40. Katon Mitchell
25:094.37 second 40. Uh last season Katon Mitchell was actually the single most explosive running back in the entire NFL on 59 rush attempts. 59 total rush
25:19attempts. He hit 20 plus miles per hour, a league leading seven times. Think about how insane that stat is. We had
25:28running backs getting 350 plus touches and yet none of them hit 20 plus miles per hour, not more often in terms of per
25:36carry more times in total than Katon Mitchell who only had 59 total rush attempts. I think people's biggest complaint is they're like, "Yeah, but he
25:45can't stay healthy. He can't possibly hand the workload." He did it in college. Like literally, Achan had a season with 154 touches and they maxed
25:52out at 232. And then Katon goes out there. He had 196 touches in the season and then maxed out at 228. So pretty
26:00similar workloads in college. Katon was the more explosive running back last season. We've seen Katon handle a workload in college. We see them have
26:09similar builds. And Mike McDaniel goes out and he after having a Han goes out and now wants Katon Mitchell. I just
26:15think there's so much telling us that the role is going to be awesome, the production's going to be there, and just
26:22look at the contract to with Katon.
26:24Given what he's done historically in the NFL, you don't get a 2-year like n.5 million deal with 5 million guarantee.
26:31That does not happen at the running back position given the production that Keaton Mitchell has had because he hasn't had that much total production in
26:39the NFL. It's because Mike McDaniel looks at him and says, "I know that he can. I see a role for him. I want him on
26:46my team. That was way more than most other or maybe any other team was going to give him in free agency. So, I just
26:54don't see how all of this can happen and that we'll go out there in week one and they're going to give every single touch
27:00to Min Hampton. Like, that is just not what is going to happen. Mike McDaniel's going to use Katon Mitchell a decent
27:05amount. This again is my second most confident take this season. Number one is that David Montgomery is the safest pick you can make across all positions.
27:14And second is that Katon Mitchell, if he stays healthy, is going to be a league winner on taking him 100% of the time
27:21when we hit pick 130 in a reddraft league. But truly, as ADP climbs, just stay a round or two ahead of ADP and
27:28take him every time. So, uh, those are some of my must players this year. A much larger list is on my website,
27:34thefantasyfootadvice.com.
27:37You can also see my rankings in every single format over there, which you can customize to fit your exact league settings and even have them change as
27:45you do your drafts. So, as you draft players to your team, the rankings will adjust based on draft results from millions of drafts over the last decade.
27:54It's a feature that no other uh company in the industry has a tool like. No one can match that level of adjustment to
28:03the rankings in real time. Uh, so you're going to gain a massive edge by drafting with my rankings over anyone else's in
28:09the industry. All right. Uh, please leave a like if you are still here.
28:12Please subscribe to the channel if you are new. I'll see you all on Friday to go over my mustdraft wide receivers this
28:18season. That's the end of this one and thank you all for watching.

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