0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. Today we're going over some running backs that I think have league-winning upside this
0:05season. First up, Gibbs and Bijan. Only going to spend like 1 minute on these two because everyone knows they're going to be league winners. I just want to
0:13make it clear that they should go first and second overall in all formats. So, for Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions easiest schedule in the league this season. They have the
0:20second highest points per game total right now. David Montgomery is gone.
0:25Gibbs has averaged 147 yards per game and scored eight touchdowns in his six career games without David Montgomery. And Dan Campbell said Gibbs will be the bell cow
0:37this season. Obviously, in some of those games, um, you know, they they didn't go into the season knowing they would be missing
0:45Monty for a few of those games. And so, they didn't really have back up they were using. For a full season, they're
0:50not going to give Gibbs that same workload, but it doesn't matter. He's got the upside to score 20 touchdowns, the upside to go for, you know, 2,000
0:56yards uh with a ton of receptions. It's just it's so safe, so much upside. He's the 101 in all formats. And I think
1:03Bijan is the 102 in all formats. 1,887 yards, 15 touchdowns in 2024. 2,298 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.
1:14Hasn't missed a game in his career. Had that one game where we were like, "Why isn't he out there?" Technically didn't
1:21miss the game because he played like one snap uh cuz he was like sick or something. Uh very frustrating game there, but again, he hasn't technically
1:27missed the game in his career. So, he's stayed very healthy. Uh over 100 targets last season. Allgeier is gone. Allgeier was a problem, right? Like at times they
1:36were using Allgeier over Bijan at the goal line. Allgeier had more carries inside the 10-yard line than Bijan last season. Maybe Brian Robinson uh does
1:44that too, or maybe we get Bijan as, uh you know, the locked-in goal line back on top of already being featured back.
1:49So, I think the preference is still Gibbs over Bijan just because of the offense.
1:54There's way less systemic risk in uh Detroit than there is in Atlanta.
2:00Atlanta could fall apart. We don't know that a quarterback play. So, you look at the touchdown differences, much higher chance that Gibbs goes for, you know,
2:06that 2,000 yd 20 touchdown season than Bijan Robinson does. But again, first and second overall, all four nuts.
2:14For everyone else in this video, it's not as obvious. So, we'll start off with Cam Akers.
2:19Right now, composite ADP has him as the running back 20. He's my running back 18.
2:26So, not a huge difference there, but I'm also 10 picks above composite ranking him as a late third-rounder. Last season as a rookie, Akers was seventh in
2:35adjusted points per game. Whenever I mention adjusted points per game, that's counting quarters. So, I don't count it as a full game if
2:42someone plays for the first quarter and then gets injured, we count that as 0.25 games. It's just a good way to say if
2:50everyone played a full 17 games, no overtime, just full 17 weeks, didn't leave any quarters, didn't get any extra quarters, what was their production?
3:00Kind of just even it out a little bit cuz sometimes um you know, people can leave after one quarter like twice. All of a sudden,
3:08their points per game looks really bad, but you're like, okay, but in actuality, when they were out there, they were much
3:13better. Anyway, seventh in adjusted points per game last season. Everything we kind of talked about last off season as a possibility for why he could hit
3:22basically ended up coming true. We want running backs who have featured upside.
3:27We want players who not only could run for a lot of, you know, rushing touchdowns, have decent rushing production, but we want the receiving as
3:34well because there's a lot less risk.
3:36Not only from a season-long perspective, if you get unlucky with touchdowns, if your team is worse than expected and they don't end up being able to run the
3:45ball as much in the fourth quarter, you have that receiving to kind of make up for it and vice versa, right? Maybe
3:49you're you're good in receiving, but or maybe you're good at the touchdowns, but the receiving falls off. Like, you just you have all three, and so you're you're
3:56much safer every single week, and you have that ceiling.
3:59That basically hit, right? I mean, we have six healthy games for Achane last season.
4:0516 carries, three and a half receptions per game, scored six times.
4:10I mean, he's their third-down back, and he's also a bowling ball at the goal line. Those are the players that you
4:14want to be investing in in fantasy.
4:17Just I guess underrated as a receiver.
4:21Not someone who's going to go out there and be like Achane, but it doesn't really matter that much. If you're racking up three, four receptions every
4:31single week, that is enough production to where you're you have running back one upside.
4:37Probably not going to be super efficient as an early-down runner, but that really just doesn't matter. He was on pace for
4:42over 300 touches last season before getting injured, and, you know, anyone that could have 60 receptions while also scoring 15 or more touchdowns has
4:53league-winning upside, even if they don't run for like 1,500 yards again.
4:57Because if you're hitting in all three, you don't necessarily need to be dominant in any one of them. And so, when that player can be had in round
5:04four, not in round two, I think it's a no-brainer. The one thing people will complain about, people will say, "I'm a
5:10little bit hesitant with Achane because of the foot injury." It was a major foot injury last season. But, he was out
5:17there for OTAs and 11-on-11s. He was doing backflips at a charity softball event. Like, he's fine. Again, we don't care about the efficiency. So, if he was
5:28a player that kind of almost like James Cook. I don't want to say James Cook needs the efficiency, but part of the
5:33reason James Cook goes at the tail end of round one is because you're pretty sure he's going to average a very high
5:39yards per carry. There's some players like that where you're like, "Maybe the upside for total touches isn't there, but because they're are to be so
5:45efficient on the ground or through the air, you're good with it. For Scat Abut, we already know that, you know, it's not
5:53going to be highly efficient. Last season, he would have been a top-10 running back in points per game had he average 3.7 yards per carry. Like, he
6:00does not need to go out there and have 5 yards per carry because he has the receptions and the touchdowns to go along with it. So, I'm
6:07not that concerned that like maybe coming off the foot injury, he drops from like 4.1 yards per carry to 3.9.
6:14That is not going to make really any difference in his production. He will have receptions, he will have touchdowns, he will get enough done on
6:21the ground where he can be a running back one that you're getting in round four. Uh and I really also wouldn't be
6:26that worried about the coaching change as well. Um Harbaugh talked about how he's a top-tier back, how he's planning on playing that way this season. Like,
6:35they are viewing him as the lead running back, as a featured running back. Is he going to be Christian McCaffrey? No. Uh
6:43but he doesn't need to be. In the middle of the fourth round, he's a great pick that definitely has league-winning upside there. He basically just has to
6:48do what he did as a rookie last year to pay off before getting injured, obviously. Uh De'Andre Swift up next composite ADP has
6:56him running back 22, my running back 21.
6:58Again, not a huge difference, but that general range of running back I do have a lot higher than consensus. So, I have
7:06Swift as an early fourth-round pick, consensus has him in round five. Uh yeah, I I think Swift easily has league-winning upside this season. I
7:15like Manongai. I think Cam Manongai is a really solid, quality NFL running back.
7:21But the fact still is he is a seventh-round pick that lacks even average athleticism at the running back position and is never going to be a
7:30prolific pass catcher.
7:32Behind Manongai, you have Roschon Johnson and Britain Brown, who are just absolute scrubs, not going to push either of these two for workload. Swift
7:41also has at least 34 receptions in all six seasons of his career. He has at least 1,250 yards in three straight
7:48years. He's coming off back-to-back seasons over 1,340 yards. Uh, coming off the most touchdowns of his career, the highest yards per carry average among
7:56qualifying seasons of his career in his first year with Ben Johnson. Don't think that is a coincidence. He's still just 27 years old, so we're not worried about
8:03any sort of drop-off there. Like, if you think the Bears are going to take that next step in year two under Ben
8:12Johnson, you should be all over De'Andre Swift at this general round five range.
8:18I know he's not a top 10 running back talent. I don't think anyone thinks that he is, but the situation that he's in is
8:24awesome. And he's another player that can hit in all three areas. That is how you get to a league-winning season is
8:31you just don't have misses at any one position unless you are Derrick Henry.
8:35De'Andre Swift could have 250 carries, he could have 50 receptions to go along with that. He could score double-digit touchdowns.
8:42And you can pretty easily get him as your running back two or even your running back three if you go robust RB.
8:48And then one final point, um, I've mentioned a few times that the Bears have a really, really difficult schedule this season. That is usually a bad thing
8:56for running backs, but it's much worse for Monon guy than is De'Andre Swift.
9:01If they're in more competitive games than expected, if they potentially lose more games than expected, what that's going to do is in the second half,
9:10they're not going to be running the ball at as high of a rate. They're going to have a higher higher pass rate than
9:13we're expecting this season. Well, for someone like Khalil Monon guy who's not going to rack up a ton of receptions, is
9:19more focused on those early down carries, that's not as good. That you have less potential, less games we can rack up 13, 14, 15, 16 rush attempts.
9:28But for De'Andre Swift, if they're trailing, if the game is very close, well, he's the guy that's going to be out there in a two-minute drill,
9:33four-minute drill, obvious passing downs. And if that's the case, we just might see a higher snap share for him than than average.
9:40Maybe a little bit lower on the rush attempt side, but he's going to make up for it in receiving. So, I don't think
9:45it's necessarily a horrible thing. I still view it as a negative. You still want for your running back to be on a
9:52team that has an easy schedule, that's going to be scoring a lot of points, because if the other teams are bad,
9:57you're also getting the ball back on offense more, you're potentially scoring more points, more touchdowns. Overall, you still want the rush attempts for
10:03De'Andre Swift. So, it's still a positive for running back has an easy schedule.
10:07I just don't think it's as bad for Swift than it is guy.
10:11Next up, we have Jordan Mason. Uh composite ADP has him as a running back 42. He's my running back 37. I have not
10:19been on Mason much at all this off season, but in preparing for today's video, I basically went through every single running back, and I thought about
10:28their, you know, base case, and I thought about what their ceiling was in like a top 10, 15% outcome. And when I
10:35got through the range for Jordan Mason, I kind of looked at the players around him. It was pretty clear that he had
10:41more upside than all the other running backs going around him. By consensus right now, rounds 10 and 11 only actually have four running backs,
10:49because there's a lot of wide receivers and quarterbacks going in that range.
10:52But, the four running backs are Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Jordan Mason, and Chris Rodriguez.
10:58Aaron Jones is coming off the worst season of his career. He turns 32 later this year. Uh and as we'll get into
11:05We talk about Jordan Mason. Uh there are reports that Aaron Jones is going to have a diminished role this season, and
11:10those reports kind of make sense. Uh Jamaal Williams is an absolute zero in the receiving game. Uh he's going to be
11:18at best uh second among the running backs in snaps. Probably going to be a three running back by committee with a
11:24hypermobile quarterback. Then, Chris Rodriguez literally has six receptions through three seasons in his career, and is coming off foot surgery. So, there's
11:33roughly a 0% chance that Chris Rodriguez is a league winner this season.
11:38But, you look at Jordan Mason and a lot of the things we discussed last season remain true. Except that this season
11:45he's almost set up even better than he was last year. The team loves him. They invested very heavily in him last off
11:51season. He was a priority target for them in free agency.
11:55We thought that he would beat out Aaron Jones for the goal line job. He did. He is our short yardage back. Aaron Jones
12:01just is not a short yardage back at this point of his career. And then you look at Clayborn, who we'll get to, um,
12:07smaller back. Like he he's, you know, a sixth-round pick, 195 lb, undersized.
12:12Like he's he's not someone who's going to take over the goal line job for this team.
12:17Um, so we have that aspect going for us. And as I said before, you know, we've got some reporting this off season that says
12:24Aaron Jones is going to be in a much more limited role than he was last season and that makes sense. He turns 32
12:30later this year. He broke down last year even though he was, you know, setting basically career lows in touches, he still, even doing that, still broke
12:38down. He set eight year lows in basically every single efficiency metric. Again, despite seeing some of the lowest touch volume of his career,
12:47why on earth would they go out there try and give him 13, 14 touches a game just for him to break down after 1 month.
12:53Like they want to keep him healthy.
12:55There's a chance he's getting like eight or nine touches every week and everything else is going to Jordan Mason. I think basically they're going
13:02to view him as change of pace, obvious passing down. That's when they're going to use Aaron Jones. But, Jordan Mason is
13:09going to be the clear-cut starting running back for this team. He's going to handle the bulk of the early down work. He's going to mix in for
13:14receptions and have all of the touchdowns.
13:17He only had 14 receptions last year and so that's not amazing. He was horrific after the catch. Don't love seeing that.
13:24But, given his ADP, right? We're in round 11. We don't need a 60 reception season for Jordan Mason to be a league
13:31winner. If he ends up being a very productive, very trustworthy running back two, that is a league winner. To get that this late in the draft, maybe
13:39your fifth running back, to get a locked-in running back two, where you can trust him every single week, he's providing touchdowns, he's providing
13:46weekly value, that would help win leagues, that would help people get into the playoffs. Cuz it's very difficult at times to hit on that running back two,
13:53and if it ends up happening, you can end up trading your earlier picks, you can trade him for someone else. Like, there
13:58are ways to where in a round 11, if you hit on a running back two that's trustworthy, you can upgrade your roster
14:04very quickly, you can fill some other needs, and that's going to get you into the playoffs. So, he can be a league
14:09winner on a 20 reception season, if it's coming with as much early down work and as many touchdowns as we're anticipating. Cuz here's the thing,
14:17I feel like people have kind of forgotten that Kevin O'Connell is an amazing play-caller, right? You've got Clint Kubiak being all the rage this
14:25offseason, Mike McDaniel as well. People still love their Ben Johnson, Shanahan, McVay. Like, these names you always hear, Liam Cohen.
14:33Kevin O'Connell is right in that group, but you don't ever hear anything about him this offseason because of J.J.
14:40McCarthy, right? J.J. McCarthy is apparently terrible, is apparently an awful quarterback. Every single quarterback that has played for Kevin O'Connell has crushed it. Even when he's
14:50had injuries in-season, he's gone to the backup, the backup's backup. Like, when every that has happened under Kevin O'Connell, they've all done amazing,
14:59except for J.J. McCarthy. Um, I thought that McCarthy could be as good as Nick Mullens, as good as Josh Dobbs, but my
15:07goodness, he was terrible. Um, so, say what you want about Kyler Murray, this is an obvious quarterback upgrade. Um, I don't think it's going to be a
15:16quarterback competition at all. I think Kyler is going to easily win this job, and this offense, if that happens and Kyler is even just a mediocre
15:26quarterback, this offense is going to go back to being really good and you're pairing it with one of the best defenses
15:33in the NFL. So, if we can get their starting running back and goal line back in round 11 as our fifth running back,
15:39that is very obviously winning upside.
15:41Some people will complain and say, "Well, Kyler's hyper mobile." The reports are also indicating that like, again, we like Kevin O'Connell because
15:48of the system. If the quarterback can play within O'Connell's system and just hit the open players and just do what is
15:55asked of them and not try and create too much on their own, play within the system, they can be highly productive. I think
16:02they're going to ask Kyler to do that.
16:03We'll see if he's capable of it.
16:05Obviously, they understand that he's a very mobile quarterback, but there have been times where Kyler doesn't even want to take off and they're kind of like
16:13almost forcing him into it. Like, he wants to stay healthy. He doesn't want to scramble as much. I don't think the
16:19system is going to ask him to scramble as much as people are expecting. So, I think Kyler's actually going to run the
16:23ball less than people think and that will be a positive for Jordan Mason because you're still going to have that aspect of people being scared on like
16:31any sort of read option, any sort of play where they're not 100% sure who's going to keep the ball, any sort of RPO
16:35or something like that. Um Defenders are still going to be scared that's going to open up running lanes for Jordan Mason who was still
16:42highly efficient last season. He had like 4.8 yards per carry even with how bad that offense was. So, he can be
16:48efficient on the ground while also benefiting from some of these dump offs that maybe wouldn't have happened before because we know that hyper mobile
16:54quarterbacks don't throw to running backs as often. But again, we don't care too much about the receptions. If he can get to like 20 receptions, that is more
17:02than enough given where you're getting him in the draft. Um maybe the lack of receptions prevents him from being top 10, but I think he can easily finish the
17:11top 15 running back. That would be a league winner. And especially I I after him on like hero RB teams, right? I
17:18don't know how valuable he is if you go like robust RB, right? You have three running backs in the top five rounds. He
17:25ends up being like your sixth running back. At that point you have so so much um draft capital invested at the running
17:31back position that it's not as beneficial for your team if you go after him later on. Again, you can end up
17:36executing the trade. You almost have to at that point and that's not as good. I think he's the best pick on teams that
17:41go hero go like modified hero. Grab like one or two running backs in the first like four to five rounds, maybe one
17:49through four, two through five, something like that. Um to where you've invested heavily, maybe you've taken a Bowers or Loveland early. Uh maybe
17:56you've gone quarterback earlier, maybe you've gone you know heavy at wide receiver and you're really locked in other positions. If you have that hero
18:04and you add on Jordan Mason, he ends up being a quality running back two for you.
18:09I mean sky's the limit for your team and you're probably making playoffs. So, really like taking him later on. I'm going to close with someone that I'm
18:15going to dub as like an honorable mention here. I think he deserves to be in this video. I just um feel like so everyone I've talked about
18:23in this video so far is also must draft player. So, difference between like a must draft player and a league winner is
18:29when I talk about someone as a potential league winner, it still means that they they do have somewhat of a lower floor.
18:35A must draft player is someone I feel supremely confident in. I think the floor for where you're getting them is basically the return value and they have
18:43upside from there. Maybe a must draft player isn't always going to end up as like a league winner, someone that like,
18:49you know, is top five at getting you into the playoff, but they're so locked in. We know they're going to be
18:53productive. They're a great pick in fantasy.
18:56I don't know that that's the case for this player. I'm going to talk about Brevin Jordan Mason here.
19:02I think given the fifth round ADP, uh given the uncertainty, I don't think I can call him a must draft player, but he
19:09probably deserves to be in this video of a potential league winner because if everything does go right, there's obvious upside here. I mean, this is a
19:18phenomenal offense in Jacksonville. Uh this team, if he is featured on it, I mean, he could be a top seven running
19:24back. I question whether he's going to be featured on it, so we'll kind of talk through all of that. Um but yeah, it
19:32basically I don't think I can call Two in a must-draft player. He won't make that list, but I think he does have
19:37league-winning upside. So, let's go over him. Um Consensus has him as running back 26, my running back 24. Um also late fifth
19:45round ADP, I have him in the mid fifth round. So, I'm basically ranking him effectively where he's going in drafts.
19:51Here's the upside case for him. Uh Laquon Allen, right? Seventh-round rookie running back last season, purely going to play on obvious passing downs.
20:00Uh Chris Rodriguez, we talked about before. Six career receptions through three seasons, also coming off foot surgery. Probably going to be fine
20:07coming off this foot surgery, but it's just some level of unknown. You don't know if um the time off from the surgery
20:14uh decreases athleticism, you don't know if there's going to be any complications in the recovery. Like, there's just some level of unknowns. He'll probably be
20:21okay, but we don't know that to be certain. Uh so to me, you've got an obvious passing down back, obvious scat back, an obvious
20:30early down grinder.
20:32And to me, like you're you're just you're giving away your hand. You're showing your hand. Like, it's it's so obvious what you're going to do when you
20:38trot either one of those two onto the field. Do we really think that Liam Cohen wants to be predictable? Or do you
20:46think he maybe wants to be a little bit unpredictable in what the play calling is going to be? With Two in, it could be
20:51anything. It's not like he's dominant on the ground. It's not like he's dominant in the receiving game, but also you know, uh Chris Rodriguez and Laquon
21:00Allen are also not dominant in either one that they only do.
21:03But the fact that Two in can do either one of them doesn't show your hand as a play caller. And I just think Liam Cohen
21:10is too good of a play caller to go out there a bunch with Laquon Allen and be like, well, we're passing it. I guess
21:17everyone knows that, right?
21:19I cuz again, they'll occasionally do it.
21:21Like Rodriguez might have four receptions this year and Laquon Allen might have 40 rush attempts. But for the most part, you know what's going to
21:27happen. I just don't think Liam Cohen wants to do that. So with Two and you're you're getting that benefit of the
21:33defense not knowing. I also did love him as a prospect last season. Last season didn't go how we wanted it to go overall
21:40because he never truly broke out. Um he averaged what, 3.7 yards per carry. The touchdowns were there, uh but the efficiency metrics were definitely down,
21:49the total volume was down. But also, I think that makes sense. I mean, Travis Etienne was like very good last year. He
21:56was highly productive in this offense.
21:57He was very explosive. Like he just he looked good. He fit the part. The offense was doing well. So why would
22:04they hand it over to Two and when everything was working beforehand?
22:08But when you have Etienne gone and now you I'm assuming kind of thrust Beathard Two and into that starting role, it should
22:16indicate some level of trust the team has in him. Also, to the 3.7 yards per carry, I mentioned this in a previous
22:22video, but there was so much short yardage work for Beathard Two and that's why the efficiency is lower. You can only gain so many yards on a goal line
22:31carry. It's a little bit capped. And so, if you have a lot of short yardage looks, that is going to decrease your
22:36yards per carry. And it wasn't even the goal line touches. He had a lot of goal line touches. He had work in the red
22:41zone because he was so great in short yardage. But it's like between the 20s, right? Like third and one, third and
22:45two. Like when you come in on these short yardage plays and you're only trying to get the first down and I mean,
22:51obviously you're trying to get more, but the goal of the play is just to get the first down. Those are not plays that
22:56typically are highly efficient to where like a second and long run has a much higher expectation than the third and one run.
23:04Bishall Jeudy had a ton of his carries come on these short-yardage situations because he was good at it. And so, if
23:10that's his role, you look at the 3.7 yards per carry, and I just don't think we can really like, you know, knock him
23:16too much for that, but I think the public is and saying, "Oh, he's terrible." I don't think he's terrible.
23:21I think he's just really good in short yardage. That's all they're really using him in. So, again, wouldn't be too concerned about that. Uh the upside is
23:26clearly there.
23:28The bear case basically for him is, well, if they use Laquon Allen as that passing down back, and if clearly the
23:36team likes Chris Rodriguez. I don't want to like overlook the fact that they brought him in. He was coached by Kevin
23:40O'Connell in the pa- or Kevin O'Connell, he's coached by Liam Coen in the past.
23:44Like, they have a connection. He's going to get some early down work. And so, if you take some early down work, you take
23:49some third down work, and you say, "Yes, Jeudy gets both, but much less of both than we want, maybe the upside's not
23:55there." And also, opportunity cost. He goes right after Swift and Montgomery, who I think are much better picks, much safer picks, uh who also have some
24:03upside attached to each of them. Uh he also is sandwiched between like Drake Maye, Mike Evans, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels. I love Evans this season. He
24:12can have 15 receiving touchdowns, and that's the range of quarterback I kind of want to be drafting this season. And so, it's like you just miss out on some
24:20running backs I have more confidence in.
24:21I think I have much higher floor for Swift and Montgomery.
24:25And then you choose to again just miss out on that. You choose to forego this range of quarterback that seems a great
24:31value. Now, Jeudy has to hit.
24:34And I think he deserves to be in this video because if he does hit, he could be a top seven running back. If he ends
24:40up being featured, but you almost I don't want to say need that to happen, but you need him to hit. Like, you need
24:46him to be productive if you're going to just miss the better running backs and then pass on this range of quarterback
24:52and wide receiver. If he ends up underperforming, and you're like, "Oh my gosh, I could have had Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels and now I get this
25:00running back that I'm like kind of mix and matching into my flex spot, that has a lot more downside. So, not a must
25:06draft player but a potential league winner if everything goes his way. So, uh those are some running backs that I think
25:12could have league winning seasons this year. Please let me know what you think of my list in the comments section down
25:17below. And if you want to end up getting a bunch of these guys in your draft, head on over to my website
25:22thefantasyfootballadvice.com and draft using my rankings. You can also mock draft, play daily trivia, see prior season stats, and submit your teams to be rated by the community all
25:33for free this season. Again, thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
25:37All right. Please leave a like if you are still here. Please subscribe on YouTube and Spotify if you are new.
25:42That'll do it for this one and thank you all for watching.
