0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. It's Monday here at the time and it's time for another mock draft Monday. Big question
0:05I've been getting this season is Nick, you know, I know that running back early is optimal, right? There are great values at wide receiver in the middle
0:11rounds, great value at quarterback in the middle rounds.
0:14Running back not so much. There are some good picks. We're going to talk about who we can target if we have to go wide
0:20receiver early in this one.
0:22But running back it's just so easy this season. Take running back early, then wide receiver, quarterback, fill the rest of your team after that. It's what
0:30everyone's going to do. The problem is that's what everyone's going to do. And so if we all know this on I'm recording
0:35this on May 31st, we all know this already, you don't think everyone's going to know that in August and everyone's going to be leaning running
0:43back heavy. So you're probably going to have some drafts where you walk in expecting to get certain players to fall to you, certain running backs to fall to
0:49you in the late first round pick, and then you're like, holy [snorts] cow, everyone just took a running back. What do I do? I see screaming value at wide
0:57receiver. Do I take it or am I still not going to have a good team? So to simulate this, I added in CPU tendencies
1:05here. So it's exactly what it looks like, right?
1:08If you are in a league where everyone takes quarterback early, we'll put it on high or very high. Running back early,
1:13high or very high. Like just whatever position you know your league is going to draft more often or you want to
1:18practice in that build, do so. I'm going to put it on high for this one. I know very high basically like they're just going to draft all
1:25running backs early on and I maybe want a chance that Jamar Chase and Puka kind of get drafted here. We're just going to
1:30roll with whatever kind of happens.
1:32But the CPUs are in this draft are going to draft running backs earlier than ADP and live ADP are suggesting at least
1:39right now. We continue kind of practicing that as ADPs also shift. But I think this might give us a good indication of okay, I'm in a late first
1:47round pick. I'm in a running back heavy room. Can I go wide receiver early? Like if I do that, which I'm going to force
1:52us to do in this one, what how can I adjust in the middle rounds to make up for that. I didn't want to do an early
1:58pick um just because and I'll start the draft now. I didn't want to do an early pick just because like the answer there
2:04is relatively obvious, right? Well, if you know everyone is going to go running back heavy early on, I mean just reach, right? If you are,
2:12you know, one of these picks here, well, it's pretty easy to take Gibbs, Bijan, JT, McCaffrey. I wouldn't take Barkley this early, but like, you know,
2:21if you want to be reaching on some of these running backs, you want to take like an Achane or something, like do
2:26whatever you want early on uh and you can just do hero, right? But when you get to the late first, if a lot
2:32of these guys are taken, maybe you don't have the option to do hero cuz maybe they're all gone. So, um we're at the 12, so we have the 12 and
2:40the 13th pick here. Um I just kind of showed you everyone that got drafted, but I'll pull up the draft board in case
2:45you couldn't see that. Uh we start the draft eight straight running backs, Gibbs, Bijan, JT, McCaffrey, Saquon, James Cook, Chase Brown, and Raheem
2:51Hampton, Puka Nacua, Chase Claypool, and then Jente also off the board. So, we're in a tough spot here, right? We look at
2:57the board and we say, "Okay, uh JSN is awesome, Amon-Ra is awesome, but Nick told me all summer that I have to start
3:05off with running backs or else my team is not going to be good. If this were my hometown league, um this were league uh
3:12that I, you know, really had a lot on, I would take Devon Achane at this pick, 100%. I don't want to do that in this
3:18one though. I want to show you guys uh what we do. But also, let's just pretend that like maybe instead of that Saquon
3:24pick that we saw earlier, maybe that was Achane instead. Let's just pretend that for argument's sake in this one.
3:31Maybe I don't like Saquon as much this season, maybe I'm worried about the workload a little bit, maybe I'm worried about Tank Bigsby, um maybe I'm worried
3:37about the offense as a whole losing A.J.
3:40Brown, one injury away, you know, what if Saquon Devonta Smith got hurt, that offense could completely fall apart. Um what if I'm just worried about the
3:47Eagles offense and I say, "Okay, um not going to draft Saquon.
3:52Can I make a good team drafting JSN and Amon-Ra right here? And I think like deep down we all know the answer is yes,
3:59right? This is two incredible players, two great strength of schedules, two players who like we know without a shadow of doubt they are the focal point
4:06of each of their offenses. Let's see how the team can come together if we do both of them. Um if you wanted to if you are
4:13huge CD Lamb fan and you wanted to pretend one of these picks was one of them uh or was him, go for it. Uh but what
4:18we're going to do um and also you'll see the rankings kind of change there.
4:22That's because I still have turned on um like the live helper. I still have turned on um the dynamic rankings. If
4:29you have access to the website, you can draft with those as well. But what it's going to do is it's going to say, "Hey
4:33uh Nick, you just drafted a wide receiver. Historically, if you look at the last millions of teams of last decade, it is more beneficial to your
4:40team to draft a running back." Again, we know this, right? But if we're in a room where we don't have Achane there and we
4:46don't like the running backs and we don't want to reach, can we still build a good team uh even though the data is
4:51screaming at us telling us, "Hey, uh it's it's better to take uh running back here."
4:56So let's start off.
4:57Everyone took running back. We're going to take JSN. We're going to take Amon-Ra St. Brown.
5:02Let's pull up the draft board again and let's see what happened. So, there was a run at wide receiver. We had a five-pick
5:08stretch that goes Justin Jefferson, you go Collins, Drake London, George Pickens, um Malik Nabers, um receiver Rashee Rice go as well. And so far no
5:16wide receivers in the next round, which is not what you want to see, right? If you do this, you're begging your league
5:22mates take wide receivers. But uh zero wide receivers drafted for the first 11 picks in round three. Um a lot of
5:29running backs do go off the board, which is also something you don't want to see, but something we told the computer to
5:33do. Uh Achane, Henry, Kenneth Walker, Love, Jacobs, Etienne um Breece Hall, Kyren, Javonte, Treyveon, and Cam Akers all
5:44off the board. Also the top three tight ends. So if we were like, "Hey, let's go with an RB zero build and we want that
5:50tight end advantage." Well, that's not not there, so we're not doing that.
5:53McBride, Bowers, and Loveland are gone, and so is Josh Allen. So, you are again, and this is why it's tough doing this,
5:59in a tough spot. You have an amazing advantage at wide receiver, uh but running back is going to start to fall off a cliff. If we pull up running
6:07back here, I'm I don't want um Bucky I also think I probably need to drop Bucky in the rankings a little bit. I am very worried
6:16that he is still recovering from his injury. I'm very worried and we're probably going to look to draft um Kenneth Gainwell on this one. Kenneth
6:23Gainwell is a great talent. The team has come out saying they really, really like him. They're saying like there's literally going to be weeks where
6:30they're not sure who gets more touches between Bucky and um Gainwell. So, obviously, we cannot take Bucky this early. So, Bucky not going to
6:38be what we take. Um Judkins.
6:42I do like him. Uh he's also half PPR. He he's better in half PPR. Uh they have a good schedule, so we like that. Um
6:49I just think uh the injury is somewhat a concern, but it seems like he is recovering pretty well. It seems like if
6:55he's already out there, you know, doing well in OTAs, looking good. He's got so much time before week one, and he's young. Whenever you have these
7:04young players recovering from his injuries, it's way better outlook than older players recovering from injury. Um if he was like 28, 29, 30, you'd be
7:11like, "Uh pump the brakes." Kid's young, right? And he's great talent. So, uh I expect him to bounce back. So, he's an option for us. Um I do think you
7:19probably have to lock up like I I don't want this video to be, "Oh, if you don't draft a running back in the first two
7:24rounds, you have to go RB zero." Right?
7:25No, we still need to go back to the position, and we need to basically talk about the running backs that are
7:30available to us in these other rounds.
7:32So, I like Judkins. Um I like Swift. I don't know that I love Swift this season. Uh I think that the Bears
7:39obviously can take that next step with Ben Johnson. Um I think that they're going to be a very good offense, but I
7:45don't know that Swift is going to be this huge beneficiary. I think if the offense really clicks, it's a little bit
7:52more likely that the passing offense gets going more. So, good pick. I don't think he's like an amazing pick, and I don't love him
7:59obviously at the 401 or the 312 where we'd have to take him. Uh it would be 401 cuz we take Judkins out of him. Uh I
8:06like Devin Montgomery a lot. Um I think he's going to get the vast majority of the touches for Houston. I think they
8:12are going to have an exceptional defense. They'll have a top I'd say inarguably a top-three defense this season. Um if they're winning a lot
8:20of games cuz of their defense, they're going to run it a ton. Um they are going to have a lot of, you know, goal-line
8:25opportunities for him.
8:27I just don't really think what I think Woody Marks is fine, but I don't think he's someone that they really want to
8:31give a ton of touches to, and he's definitely not someone they're going to give a lot of goal-line touches to. So,
8:34I think he's just like a very solid play. So, he's someone that we have in mind here. Um I'm not pumped about
8:39Price, and I definitely wouldn't because of the stack with ASM. Just too much risk early on. Definitely wouldn't do that. Um but we see the drop-off, right?
8:46Two and you're a little bit worried about Chris Rodriguez, Chuba Hubbard.
8:50You're worried a little bit about Jonathan Brooks, and also Chuba's not that good of a running back. Stevenson, well, you have Travion there. Like
8:56Stevenson's probably a good value at this spot, and you know, if we could at the next turn maybe get uh Stevenson,
9:02sure. Um but isn't it isn't it already starting to get very gross? So, I think you basically have to take a running back at
9:08this pick. You have to take at least one. And I think Judkins would be the one that I'd have the most confidence
9:12in. I think maybe when you guys see this, I might have moved Bucky Irving uh back down a little bit more. Um but I
9:19will eventually do that.
9:20So, we'll take Judkins.
9:22We can still go with other spots, but again, I would not take Tyler Lockett this early, so we're not doing um
9:28tight end. Quarterback, I think it's totally fine taking like a Lamar in the beginning of the fourth round. I think that's fine. I just think we're going to
9:36have a lot of opportunities to take quarterback and because you didn't take running back early again, that's what we're testing out here. Everyone took
9:43running back early. I took two wide receivers. I'm at the 312. I don't have a running back yet. Can you still build
9:49a good team? I think with that in your mindset, no. I like like I don't think with with with like um Lamar here, that's the
9:57optimal play. I've foregone running back for a very long time. I don't know what it's going to look like. There's a very
10:02strong chance that everyone still wants to go running back. I'm looking at Monongalia and Rico Dowdle or like Blake Corum as running back two. You cannot
10:10enter the season without having happened.
10:13And since there's probably going to be a good value at some point at quarterback, I don't think you can go there. And then
10:17if there was some amazing value here at wide receiver, maybe. These are great picks. They're not like the greatest
10:24picks of all time here uh at the 401. Um Again, this is a really difficult spot as well because like Tray Veon's a solid
10:34pick, Javonte's a solid pick, Kyren, Breece Hall. We would be slam dunking Breece Hall and Judkins, Kyren and Judkins, Javonte and Judkins. Like those
10:42would be really good picks here. They're gone. I still think uh you would go with like a safe pick here. And I think Monty
10:49is basically the safe pick. You could go De'Andre Swift, but I think it's like you just don't want to screw it up. You
10:56don't want to take a risky running back, have them not pan out, and then all of a sudden you're relying on these later
11:01picks that aren't as good. So, I would just take Monty, know for a fact that he's going to be good this season, going
11:07to have a solid year, going to be involved, going to get red zone touches.
11:10Like everything is going to be fine with Monty. Uh so, I would personally just do that. And that's the beginning of our
11:17draft. We've got Judkins, David Montgomery, JSN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
11:23We have locked in a lot of touches. So, that is one thing you can say and I'll pull up the draft board. Actually, I'll
11:27do it now.
11:28One thing you can say about these sorts of builds is think about the targets you're locking in every week for JSN and
11:35Amon-Ra St. Brown. And think about the carries that we're locking in for Jenkins and Monty.
11:41Our floor every week is relatively high still even having not drafted running back early because with all of that volume, we're
11:49not relying on explosive plays, we're not reliant on you know, high-end efficiency. As long as our guys don't do terrible, they're going to get a
11:57baseline level of touches and so that's just nice to have when you go with this build. Um obviously if you drafted like
12:02Bijan or Gibbs, all of a sudden I can take a much more like I can take uh Kendre Miller Price and say, "What if he
12:09gets 250 touches and you know, uh has goal line opportunities and receiving work and all this stuff that I don't necessarily think he's going to have,
12:16but what if he does have that and he's you know, I already have Bijan, I can take that risk and my running back two doesn't
12:22have to pan out. My running back two kind of has to pan out in a build like that. So that's just the the the way I
12:27would be thinking if building this way.
12:29Okay. We take Jenkins, we take David Montgomery. Um average amount of running backs go Bucky, Swift, Chubba, Price two and and
12:36Stevenson off the board. Um at wide receiver lot go AJ Brown, Olave, T Higgins uh DeVonta Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Garrett Wilson, Flowers, T Lad,
12:46Davante Adams and Burden. We see Warren and Tucker Kraft go, that's a reach. Um and then we see uh Jayden Daniels, Drake
12:54Maye and then the pick before us is Joe Burrow.
12:58So let's look at this by position. Uh 100% you're taking Lamar at this point.
13:03I mean, no matter what we see for the rest of it, you'd be taking Lamar. Um you'd be considering Caleb here, you'd
13:10be considering Jalen Hurts. Another thing is, okay, remember that last round I talked about you want that positional advantage, right? Like if we don't have running
13:19back, we kind of have to win on other spots, right? But in the last round, if I took Lamar, my second running back
13:25spot was going to be so bad and the drop off was going to be potentially so significant that I couldn't risk it. At
13:31the 512 601, we're not thinking that as much. At this point, I've locked in those two running backs. I don't necessarily even need to start another
13:40running back. If these two can work out, I can ride that. I can, you know, if one of them happens to get hurt, we can look
13:46in the trade market, we can look at free agency, but like to start the season, we should be locked in at these two running
13:50back spots. Now, I'm more flexible to take someone like Lamar.
13:55Uh so, we're going to end up doing it. I won't click the button yet just in the off chance there's something else. Uh
13:59but, yeah. Um again, I said the next round it could be like Monongai, Rico, stuff like that. It's Pollard, Jaylen Warren, and then Monongai. Um this is
14:08just a range I don't like. I really don't like these guys. Um Tony Pollard worries me to a degree. Um I still think
14:14they could use Tyjae Spears there.
14:16Warren worries me. Rico Dowdle is a good running back that is going to get touches. Um Monongai is fine, but like
14:23D'Onta Foreman Swift is the starter. So, there's only so much upside unless there's an injury and I don't necessarily want to take a handcuff
14:28running back at the 512. Um Harvey, gosh, I mean, it's difficult to project him well now that they have three running backs that could do well
14:37this season. Rico's in that split, so you kind of work your way down. I like Gainwell, but I'm still not taking
14:42Gainwell at the 512 601. So, I don't think you can go running back. I think it's great we got Monty Monty in the
14:47last one. At wide receiver, um Jamo's a great pick, but I would not take Amon-Ra and Jamo. You're just way too On
14:53Underdog sure, best ball, I would definitely not do that in this one. Um We're seeing uh really strong value because ADP
15:02composite ADP has him at 49. Live ADP's a little bit further back. The community's kind of not taking him as high. Um
15:11But, I think you would probably go, you know, one of McLaurin or Waddle or Evans. You know, these are all just like
15:17very solid wide receiver picks this season. Uh tight end, it's not a good range to be taking tight end, so we
15:24won't do that. So, very obviously again, you go with Lamar and you lock that in.
15:28Um after that, yeah, who would my favorite be between?
15:33I feel like we need some breakdown videos for like the middle rounds here.
15:36Um part of my gut tells me you've got JSN.
15:43You've got Amon-Ra St. Brown.
15:46Go bigger go home, right? Like I know my two wide receivers here are locked in. I know they're going to be my one and two. As good as I think of
15:54a season McLaurin or Waddle or Evans can have, it's very likely that JSN and Amon-Ra are my top two. So, we're
16:00looking at our flex play here and we're looking for someone who like, "Hey, if we hit on three wide receiver ones, it's
16:05not going to matter too much what the running backs end up doing." I think that screams Evans, right? If I want to
16:11go for the ceiling here, Mike Evans could have 15 touchdowns in the San Fran offense. He could be cuz, you know,
16:17Ricky Pearsall, can he stay healthy? Um you know, uh you've got um Jauan Jennings now in Minnesota, so he's gone.
16:28Um there's opportunity here for Mike Evans to be like, you know, Aiyuk is not coming back, obviously.
16:35There's opportunity here for a ton of touchdowns. Kittle's not going to start the season or if he starts the season, he might be a little bit limited. I
16:40don't know. I feel like the upside of Mike Evans is a little bit too significant. Sure, it's risky cuz he's a
16:46little bit older, um but yeah, I would I would just I would just take him. Uh and just, you know, if it doesn't work out, it's not the end
16:54of the world because I've got wide receiver kind of handled at this point.
16:59All right.
17:00Take those two. I think this build is coming together pretty well. Again, even having not taken running back a little bit early.
17:07I would like to probably take at least one running back at this next spot because Judkins is still coming off a
17:12season-ending foot injury. They've Montgomery is still changing teams.
17:15Theoretically, I feel good about both of them, but theoretically there are outs here where it's not amazing for us.
17:21Um so I would like, you know, to do something there. Uh we won't list every pick, but a lot of wide receivers go off
17:25the board. Uh at tight end Pitts and Sam LaPorta are gone. We've got Caleb Hurts, um Justin Herbert and Dak gone at
17:32quarterback, and then only three running backs. Warren, uh Tony Pollard, and Rico. And this is also something I want to talk about.
17:41If your room goes very running back heavy, well, guess what they're probably not going to take as much in this range,
17:51running back. The thing is, and that's what we saw, right? These teams that have three running backs, maybe they take a fourth, but no one's probably
17:57taking a fifth running back by round seven. So they will eventually stop. And so you'll get to this sort of range, and
18:05these guys might sit there a little bit longer than you're expecting. We're at pick 84 right now, the 712. Manongai is
18:12still there. Harvey is still there.
18:15Gainwell is still there. Dobbins is still there. These are running backs that like while you might not love them
18:23at 712, at 801 to start your bench, they're good options. And the upside is still there. If Swift got hurt, Manongai
18:31is an exceptional player.
18:34Uh if Harvey broke out, like let's say Dobbins has his millionth season ending injury in a row, uh and maybe Jonathan
18:39Coleman doesn't necessarily break out, you know, Harvey could still do that. Uh there is underlying talent there. And then you guys know I really like Kenneth
18:46Gainwell. That opportunity there. JK Dobbins, well, JK Dobbins was the running back one last season, and then they paid him a decent amount to come
18:53back for one more year. Uh if he stays healthy, he's probably going to play over RJ Harvey. And theoretically, in a
19:00build like this, you might lean towards someone like Dobbins cuz to start the year, he's going to be really good, you
19:05know, when we um begin the season, he's probably going to be the starter. He's probably going to be healthy. Who knows?
19:11If you're not confident in Judkins to start the year or maybe they're talking about, you know, a kind of limited workload to start the year. What if you
19:17were starting Harvey instead? Um, I don't know, you know, who they're playing to start the year. I don't know like what the projections will be in
19:24weeks 1, 2, 3.
19:25Um, but in a build like this, Dobbins would make a lot of sense. But, I think you would have to go with Mingo
19:31Guy. I think he definitely, um, definitely is just a good pick for here if we have that injury, um, we kind of
19:39have that out and because we have quarterback settled cuz we already have two receivers, I think he's going to make a lot of sense. But, it would be,
19:46um, I'd say Mingo Guy and Harvey are probably clearly the top two and we really would hope that, you know, again,
19:52the room says we already have our running backs, maybe we won't take Gainwell, won't take Dobbins, maybe they're there at the next pick. Um,
19:59let's see what else is here.
20:01So, we've got Bryan Thomas, we've got Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, um, nothing crazy. I mean, I think like I think the three I just
20:12listed, um, Bryan Thomas, Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, maybe throw Addison in there as well. I think are all like solid picks here. I just think
20:21because we invested so much at wide receiver because we know with such certainty who our one and two are going to be, it just devalues the position so
20:28much for us, um, that it's just probably not worth really taking. Um, just want to pull this up to the, okay.
20:37Um, I think tight end there is fine, but my general strategy at tight end is going to be early or late. You know,
20:44basically you're taking, uh, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, um, can't think of his name.
20:52Uh, the third tight end.
20:55Loveland. Cole Kmet, Loveland. Um, Loveland or maybe, um, depending on the value for Warren, I don't know if fifth round is the best.
21:05Um, but if you get a good value in Warren, basically after that I'm just double dipping later on uh and because
21:10again I want to lock in a couple more running backs, I probably would not invest this pick in someone like Fannin
21:16or Kittle or Kincaid when I can get someone relatively similar very late in the draft.
21:23It's still the option kind of take two of them, too, if we can hit running back enough. So, because of that, again,
21:28we're not going to go with a second quarterback yet. Wide receiver, these are fine picks, but no one's really standing out that much. I think you
21:34would just double dip at running back, give yourself more outs, more opportunities to hit at the position uh and yeah, I think that just makes a
21:42lot of sense. So, we'll take my non-guy.
21:46I think I think again, I think you go with Harvey at this spot cuz maybe Gainwell is there at the next one. I do
21:52like Gainwell a lot, but I think Harvey just makes sense. I don't love him, but he is going a lot later than he was last
21:56season. He's still a talented player. He can progress into year two. And again, Dalvin gets hurt every single season, so there's just easily a possibility he
22:04gets injured. All right. Let us see what happens.
22:10Gainwell did go, unfortunately. So, we take our two running backs off the board, Akers, Dobbins, JCM, Gainwell, and Aaron Jones. Decent amount of wide
22:19receivers, Kelce, Kittle, and Fannin are gone and then some quarterbacks gone as well.
22:25All right.
22:26So, we've got four bench spots, tight end, and then we'll defense and kicker in the final two rounds. Um, did I fix
22:33that? All right, good.
22:35For some reason, something in the code changed and the defense and kicker went away. Um, I think I like to delete the
22:40column by accident or something like that, but we figured it out. Um, so they're there now.
22:45And they have um so you guys see strength of schedule is now an option for you. Defenses um I'm also showing um
22:53the overall strength of schedule is here, but the first three weeks are really what matters a lot. And so, it'll show you what's their strength of
23:00schedule for the first three weeks and then what individually are those weeks if you're kind of planning things out.
23:05So, if you're looking through as to who they are, oh, look, um really two really good match-ups weeks two and week three
23:12for Seattle. Also, Seattle's just a very strong defense overall. So, if you're kind of like looking to stream and do things like that, you can very easily go
23:18through and be like, "Well, maybe I shouldn't take New England uh cuz they have a horrible match-up in week one."
23:23So, added that in for you guys to see.
23:25Obviously, again, not taking defense just yet. So, uh once you quarterback again, we'll look at running back. If um Gainwell was
23:33there, I would take him.
23:35But, we're at the point where uh I just don't like it that much, and because we took these two running backs, um it's
23:40still fine to do. Again, we're at plus 2%, so historically, you're still gaining on playoff rate of our expectation whether you take running
23:47back or wide receiver at this spot. Um I don't think I will. I think we've taken enough. We have Judkins, Montgomery, Monangai, and Harvey. I
23:57don't feel amazing about it, but because of how good we feel about the rest of our draft, I think it's fine. I just
24:02don't think there's that much value in taking like Rashad White, a Mason, a Rodriguez, a Brooks. Like, they're good picks, they're fine, um but I don't
24:09think we need to take them right now.
24:13At wide receiver, um I mean, Addison was the last player we had queued up over there. Why is there a million players in
24:18the queue right now?
24:20I thought I thought I'd fix this uh well, I guess not. Uh I wanted it to delete all the players in
24:28the queue once they got drafted. Or did I have to Hm.
24:34I'll figure it out.
24:36Thought I'd fixed it. Guess I didn't.
24:37Anyways, Addison, last player we had queued up. Um Good strength of schedule, plays in a dome, very talented player. If they
24:45figure quarterback out, maybe Kyler's the answer, maybe he's not, but they have to figure it out. Uh pretty darn good value getting him at the 9.12. So,
24:52like him a lot, like Josh Downs a lot as well. He's hoping to play more on the outside this season. If that actually
24:57comes true, he's a great wide receiver talent and if Daniel Jones can also be healthy, a lot of upside there. I actually think
25:06there's almost like a tier break there.
25:09I like Downs, but if they get A.J.
25:10Brown, I'm not going to like him as much. I like Golden a decent amount, but there's still some risk there. And then
25:14you go into like, you know, the Wandale and the Hagans and the Shakir. I mean, there's there's a drop off. So, Addison
25:18and Downs, those are two great picks.
25:21They're players that I would trust in my flex spot if Mike Evans doesn't work out. So, I think we probably just go
25:26there. Again, fine at tight end, but I don't feel a need to do that. So, let's take Addison and then let's go over and
25:33take Josh Downs. All right. This team is working out nicely. Again, top of the order. Starting lineup, Lamar, Judkins, David Montgomery, JSN, Amon-Ra St.
25:43Brown, Mike Evans, and then we've got Rondale Harvey, Addison, and Josh Downs.
25:48I'll pull up the draft board.
25:50Um, Kincaid and Ferguson are gone at tight end.
25:53Five quarterbacks off the board and then even split of running back and wide receiver.
25:58Pretty much all the players we've been talking about and then some handcuffs as well.
26:04Um, system wants us to be taking tight end right now and and because again, it adjusts based on like what we kind of
26:11need. We're finally seeing a boost at the tight end position. Still optimal going, you know, running back and receiver, but it does make sense. We
26:20only have three picks left before we do defense and kicker five picks left overall you can see over here.
26:26Um, it makes sense to to go with uh a a tight end here or two. Honestly, like if you went Dallas Goedert and then
26:33you just like inserted kind of your favorite flyer and you wanted to use one of these bench spots at tight end and
26:39say, "Okay, A.J. Brown's gone. Does that increase the red zone role for Dallas Goedert?" It was really strong to like start last year, fizzled out a little
26:47bit, um, but if he stays healthy and he's got a good red zone role, he could have a good season and getting him at
26:52the 11 12 isn't bad. Um, I do worry a little bit about Stowers, but they're just different. Basically my worry with Stowers is well Stowers can't
27:04block and so if they go to 12 personnel and they want to have one of the tight ends blocking, well it's going to be
27:08Dallas Goedert, right? Like Stowers isn't going to block so he's going to be the one running the route. That's a concern for me,
27:14but like everyone in this range has a concern. Like a concern for Likely is what the heck is his role on the Giants?
27:20I don't know what they expect it to be.
27:21I don't know if it's going to work out.
27:23Gadsden, I guess honestly a relatively high upside play, but um they brought in David Njoku and so does David Njoku use more in the red zone?
27:33Mark Andrews, they actually really like the rookie they drafted and they want him to play a decent amount. Nice little stack. I know
27:39it's a risk, but nice little stack there with Lamar Jackson. So that's not bad.
27:43Sedeeq rookie. Sedeeq would be the one I would say if you wanted to draft one tight end you feel is more stable and
27:51then you wanted some like upside. I feel like Sedeeq is the quote unquote upside play and that like in the second half of
27:56the season, he's super athletic and so if he kind of gets going, he could break out. Rookie tight ends aren't always the
28:01best bet, but if you start the season with someone like Dallas Goedert where you're like, "Okay, is he going to be on
28:06the field every single play? He's going to be used a decent amount. He's going to be used in the receiving game." You
28:10can trust him at least to start the year and then you take Sedeeq, you put him on your bench and you kind of see what
28:14happens.
28:15My guess though is that in a hometown league, Sedeeq is probably going to be on free agency. Like I feel like to
28:20start the year, he's just not going to do all that much and whoever drafted him is going to cut him and then you could
28:24probably pick him up or you could probably trade low in like week five, six, or seven after he starts off slow.
28:30So all of this is to say, I think even with the risk, we probably just take Dallas Goedert who also they have the
28:35number one passing schedule this season.
28:39Take Dallas Goedert and I think we'll take our second tight end later. I think we'll take another skill player at this
28:45pick.
28:46Um, we could handcuff I don't think that's a bad play. I mean, we don't know that Judkins is going to be fully healthy in week one. Do you
28:56handcuff him with Dol Samson if it happens to be that he's not as recovered as we think?
29:01Um, that that probably is the play.
29:03Um, yeah. Yeah, looking around cuz I could take Pacheco or something, but I don't think they use him enough to really
29:10trust him anyway. So, just take Dol Samson, get that handcuff. I think that makes sense. And then we'll do one bench
29:15player. Um, honestly, there there's a lot of just varying opinions here. I do think the best move when you wait this
29:22long at tight end is to draft that second one just because it's so hard to hit later on that just take two shots,
29:28right? I think probably the move is to take Adams and just say, "Okay, like do they crush it this season? Um, do
29:35they utilize his speed? Do they utilize his ability to get open in the seam and just use him as a mismatch? And he grows
29:43into year two cuz he was really he was a rookie last season.
29:46Um, and if it doesn't happen, we can still roll with Dallas Goedert. Um, and maybe it does happen and Dallas Goedert falls
29:51off. And it's like just just having two shots at tight end this late, um, I think is is a pretty good move to be
29:56doing. And like realistically, you could take Keeton Mitchell, you could take Tank Bigsby. Um, I think they're totally fine bets. Um, but we
30:04know that like they do need an injury. Maybe Keeton Mitchell something we look at in free agency, um, waiver wire in week one
30:11because he got like 10 opportunities and we're like, "Holy cow, in this offense like maybe Uh, but the odds are everyone
30:16here is not going to be someone who just breaks out right away. Uh, so we can kind of leave them cuz we're also
30:22there's not that many picks left. We can kind of leave them on free agency here.
30:25So, I don't think you have to go there.
30:26Um, uh, we can just do the um, Aron Bay pick and then, um, I haven't actually looked at what the Okay, so we
30:36have a good start here with the Chargers. Ooh, nice. Okay. Well, we'll take the Chargers to start off with. I feel I should add in who that team
30:43actually is right here. So, maybe I'll put a little logo like down in the bottom here. But, if we're getting the number one match up
30:49and the number five match up, I mean, the number one match up has to be Arizona, right?
30:56I mean, the Charger like right like I'm pretty sure um Let's look at Charger schedule.
31:02Uh yeah, Arizona. And it's a home match up with Arizona. So, I'm going to take that every time. Um and then I I don't
31:09care what you do with kicker.
31:11And if you were drafting this early, you could totally like not draft kicker.
31:15Um I would draft a defense. I would just make sure you lock in a defense with a good match up. Um you could not draft a
31:20kicker and you could draft like um I don't know. Uh Mike Washington if he starts breaking out or something like that. I don't know. Probably not.
31:28Probably none of these running backs, honestly. Marshawn Lloyd if Jacobs goes to jail or something like that. I don't know.
31:34Uh but, you know, Marshawn Lloyd's probably just going to crush everyone's soul yet again. Okay, I think that team turned out well. Uh it's not giving us
31:41the greatest grade because, of course, we didn't get good running back because we didn't touch it until the third round.
31:47Your grade is probably not going to end up being good when at when you have a late first round pick and everyone drafts running back.
31:55But, I think we did a good job of um I'm probably capitalize this. I think we did a good job of like adjusting, right?
32:05We are shredding at wide receiver. And I don't think the system can it will give us a, you know, 100 percentile and it
32:12won't just like evenly downgrade, right?
32:14It's not like first place gets this and second place gets this and third place gets this. When it's grading it out, it
32:19knows, okay, if I dominated wide receiver, the second team could be way below me.
32:24Like it takes that into account.
32:26But, I don't think there's any way to fully mathematically articulate the fact that JSN and Amon-Ra and Evans could all be top seven wide
32:36receivers. And if I have three top seven wide receivers, and I get even any production at running back, I'm going to
32:43have a good season. So, there's upside in this build. The downside that I want to talk about to kind of close this is this is not
32:52something I would search out. I think we did really well, and I think I'd be happy leaving a draft with this, having,
32:58you know, a top-end quarterback, the double dip late at tight end, good enough running backs to kind of get by and have some options, and just really
33:06good wide receivers to fill those starters and the flex. I think that's how you have to build it out.
33:12What's tricky about RB0 builds, double wide receiver builds, is that wide receivers a highly variant position. So, Amon-Ra is honestly a great example of
33:20someone who's not. And so, if you're doing this, you probably want to do it with someone like Amon-Ra, someone like CeeDee Lamb.
33:26Even the top-end wide receivers, typically, unless you're like a top three receiver that season, you're going to have a lot of variance.
33:33And so, even if they have 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns, and you're like, "Wow, a running back getting 1,400 yards and
33:3913 touchdowns likely did that way more consistently and had way fewer dud games." The wide receiver probably had some spikes and some duds. And so, when
33:47you invest really early in a player who has spikes and duds, what if a couple of these guys dud, and all of a sudden I I
33:55hit at the receiver, I had a really good team, but there's a lot more of those weeks where we bottomed out, and we say, you
34:01know, "Great player, but has two for 40."
34:06And my other guy got two for 40. And I didn't take running back until later, and I just have more weeks at the
34:11bottom. That's what happens when you go wide receiver heavy. It's fine on a site like Underdog because you're capitalizing on the spikes, and you need
34:18that production. Not in a redraft league, you're going to just pick up more losses than you're expecting to do.
34:23So, it's why I don't lean with this wide receiver early start, but if it happens and everyone drafts a running back, and
34:29you can grab JSN and Amon-Ra, well, now I know that baseline of production is there each week and so it's a little bit
34:37more beneficial.
34:39Um but yeah, I I would really like Amon-Ra would be like the one of the guys that like is he's so stable. Um he'd be one
34:45of the ones I'd really want to be having on the team if I did that. Um but I certainly wouldn't be like, "Oh, I got
34:51to go early. I'm going to take like, you know, Nico uh Neighbors with the wrist, Rice with the wrist. Like those are guys I wouldn't
35:01want to be utilizing in a build like this because I'm like, well, their production is going to be a lot more up
35:07and down and I'm just not as confident in that.
35:11And if I don't have a running back as well, I'm hurting. So, let me know what you guys think about the team. Um
35:17curious what it says Okay, so it doesn't think we missed any opportunities until the Josh Downs pick, which is really late. They think we should have taken
35:24another running back. The computer thinks we should have taken another running back um instead and gone with Roshon White there.
35:30I can see that, but I also think Josh Downs has more upside. I mean, it's my projections doing this. Uh but I think
35:36Josh Downs has more upside than maybe projections wins indicate, but I also see why that would be the case because we had, you know, JSN and Amon-Ra, Evans
35:46and Addison. Like we didn't necessarily need Josh Downs. So, I get it. Uh but I still think the pick uh wasn't too bad.
35:54So, that'll do it for this one. Uh there's going to be another video. Um I'll just bring this up while I'm talking.
36:01There'll be another video this week on the worst strength of schedule, so we'll talk about that in the same way we did
36:06the best one. Uh but for those of you who are still here, thank you. Leave a like if you are still still here.
36:12Subscribe to the channel if you are new.
36:14But I'll catch you all on the next one.