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How Early Should You Draft These Risky Players? | 2026 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

34 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 8, 2026
Published
Mon, June 8, 2026
100
Player insights
58
Players mentioned
Topics
Jaylen WarrenCaleb WilliamsJa'Marr ChaseJeremiyah LoveJosh JacobsBreece HallChase BrownChris OlaveDavante AdamsTerry McLaurinChris RodriguezColston LovelandDerrick HenryDrake Maye
Player analysis

Player insights

100

A.J. Brown

NegativeProjection0:03

AJ Brown is highlighted as a risky player to avoid drafting early, with the analyst stating 'would not go' him in round two.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection0:02

Amon-Ra St. Brown was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Breece Hall

PositiveProjection0:01

Breece Hall is expected to be drafted in the late first/early second round range as the computer draft targets running backs heavily.

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PositiveRole0:08

Breece Hall is great talent and the analyst feels he'd honestly be fine taking at this spot in the draft.

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PositiveRole0:08

Breece Hall is great talent and would be fine to take at this draft spot.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveValue0:02

Brock Bowers was drafted 13th overall and the analyst would have considered him at that pick, noting he loves him this season and that he's a better pick in full PPR where he can separate from the back end of tight end.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveValue0:22

Brock Purdy is a great quarterback option and part of the tier the analyst would consider in a 10-team league.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection0:18

More of a round six pick, though could be considered in round five; set up for a really good season despite tough playoff strength of schedule due to outdoor games.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Caleb Williams is set up for a really good season, but faces a tough playoff strength of schedule due to outdoor games in Chicago, which could lead to blizzard conditions in fantasy playoffs.

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PositiveValue0:22

In a 10-team league, the analyst would take Caleb Williams before the quarterback drop-off, though waiting is also acceptable since other options like Dart, Herbert, Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy are available.

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NegativeProjection0:24

Caleb Williams is viewed at the end of the top quarterback tier, lacking the ceiling of Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, or Jaden Daniels to potentially be the top quarterback by 1-2 points per game.

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Carson Beck

PositiveProjection0:10

Carson Beck could potentially pull off a Shucker-like performance where the offense ends up being way better than expected, though the analyst doesn't think that's going to happen.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveProjection0:02

CeeDee Lamb was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue0:06

Chase Brown offers great value as a running back with safety mixed with upside, and will get plenty of touches this season.

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NegativeMatchup0:07

Pairing Chase Brown with Jamar Chase creates risk of double-stacking with the same quarterback (Joe Burrow), as an injury to Burrow would devastate both picks like it did last season.

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PositiveRole0:08

Chase Brown is definitely among the safest options because you just know the role is going to be really good.

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Chris Olave

PositiveValue0:09

Data shows Chris Olave is slightly better for wide receiver in full PPR format (8% boost versus 5% for running back) and net neutral for tight end, making him a solid pick.

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PositiveValue0:09

Chris Olave data shows slightly better for wide receiver in this exact format with an 8% boost versus 5% boost, and net neutral for tight end with negative 4% for quarterback.

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PositiveValue0:09

Starting the draft with A'Chan, Jamar Chase, and Chris Olave creates a really good foundation for your team.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeInjury0:27

Chris Rodriguez has a foot injury and is not expected to catch passes, making him an unattractive fantasy option.

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NegativeInjury0:31

Running back whose projections need to be dropped due to a foot injury, making him less attractive than Ferguson at tight end.

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Christian McCaffrey

PositiveProjection0:01

Christian McCaffrey could be taken as early as pick three in full PPR formats if he stays healthy, given his 100-reception season and top-three running back upside.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveProjection0:03

Colston Loveland is mentioned as a potential tight end option in round two or later, but not expected to be drafted in round two.

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PositiveRole0:26

Loveland is one of the preferred tight end targets to secure early in the draft to avoid heavy late-round investment at the position.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue0:12

D'Andre Swift is in the next tier down from top running backs, where Josh Jacobs becomes more of a risky value pick if his legal issues are resolved.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveValue0:22

Dak Prescott is a great quarterback option and part of the tier the analyst would consider in a 10-team league.

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Davante Adams

PositiveValue0:21

Technically barely ahead of Terry McLaurin in ADP, but McLaurin is preferred; Adams is viable if targeting touchdowns.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Davante Adams is a solid wide receiver option in this range, with the upside of touchdown production if you prefer that over McLaurin.

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PositiveRole0:30

Wide receiver on the drafted team roster.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection0:01

Derrick Henry is expected to be drafted in the late first/early second round range as the computer draft targets running backs heavily.

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PositiveDepth Chart0:10

Derrick Henry was selected in round three of the mock draft as part of a run of seven consecutive running back picks.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeProjection0:03

DeVonta Smith is highlighted as a risky player to avoid drafting early, with the analyst stating 'would not go' him in round two.

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Drake London

PositiveProjection0:02

Drake London was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Drake Maye

PositiveProjection0:17

Considered a great quarterback pick in round five with strong fantasy upside.

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PositiveProjection0:24

Drake Maye is in the top tier of quarterbacks with the potential to dominate in fantasy similar to Lamar Jackson.

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George Pickens

PositiveProjection0:02

George Pickens was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection0:01

Jamar Chase is expected to go third overall in most scenarios, though Christian McCaffrey could challenge that spot in full PPR formats.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Starting off with Jamar Chase and Chris Olave is a really good start to the draft.

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NegativeBust0:18

Too much risk to pair with T. Higgins in round five, making him an unattractive pick at this stage.

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PositiveRole0:30

Wide receiver on the drafted team roster.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveProjection0:18

More of a round six pick than round five, with consideration as a quarterback option.

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NegativeProjection0:24

Jaylen Hurts is viewed at the end of the top quarterback tier, lacking the ceiling of Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, or Jaden Daniels to potentially be the top quarterback by 1-2 points per game.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveProjection0:02

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Jayden Daniels

PositiveProjection0:18

More of a round six pick than round five, with consideration as a quarterback option.

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PositiveProjection0:24

Jaden Daniels is in the top tier of quarterbacks with a ceiling to potentially be the top quarterback by 1-2 points per game.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue0:14

Waddle will be the top wide receiver in the next rankings update, replacing Neighbors at the top of the wide receiver rankings.

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Jaylen Warren

PositiveProjection0:03

Jaylen Warren is mentioned as a potential tight end option in round two or later, but not expected to be drafted in round two.

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PositiveRole0:12

Jaylen Warren is still kind of locked in with good upside as an alternative to Josh Jacobs.

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PositiveProjection0:25

Jaylen Warren is a good running back pick who can rack up a lot of receptions.

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PositiveProjection0:25

Warren is a strong pick in the ninth round as a fourth running back who could rack up 60 receptions this season and provide solid production if needed.

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PositiveRole0:30

Running back on the drafted team roster.

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Jeremiyah Love

NegativeRole0:07

Jeremiah Love's volume is at risk because the Falcons' offense was good in fantasy last season only due to excessive passing (50 drops back per game), which will decrease significantly when Carson Beck takes over.

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NegativeProjection0:08

Jeremiah Love will need a huge share of the Falcons offense to produce, but it's unclear if he'll get 80-90% of the volume needed to succeed at this draft spot.

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PositiveProjection0:09

Jeremiah Love is the analyst's top projected player in this scoring format, with upside if he hits as a prospect and is used 80-85% of the time with the offense run through him.

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PositiveRole0:30

Running back on the drafted team roster.

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Joe Burrow

NegativeProjection0:24

Joe Burrow is viewed at the end of the top quarterback tier, lacking the ceiling of Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, or Jaden Daniels to potentially be the top quarterback by 1-2 points per game.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveValue0:02

Jonathan Taylor is a less optimal pick in full PPR formats compared to Christian McCaffrey, who benefits more from the PPR scoring.

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Jonathon Brooks

PositiveRole0:30

Running back on the drafted team roster.

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Jordan Addison

PositiveValue0:25

Addison is a solid pick in the ninth round as part of a balanced draft strategy that prioritizes building evenly across positions.

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PositiveProjection0:25

Jordan Addison is still considered a solid wide receiver option in this range.

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Jordyn Tyson

PositiveRole0:03

Jordan Tyson is noted as a great prospect for the Dolphins, but Odell Beckham Jr. is their most established target.

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Josh Allen

NegativeValue0:06

Data in full PPR 10-team league format says not to draft Josh Allen in round three; waiting for mid-tier quarterbacks is the better strategy.

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PositiveProjection0:24

Josh Allen is in the top tier of quarterbacks with a ceiling to potentially be the top quarterback by 1-2 points per game.

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Josh Jacobs

PositiveProjection0:00

Josh Jacobs will be discussed as a risky player to draft early, with his ADP expected to fall at the tail end of round two into round three.

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NegativeInjury0:11

Josh Jacobs is in legal trouble and faces potential NFL suspension of at least 6 weeks for personal conduct violations, or 8-12 weeks if charged criminally, making him too risky to draft in round three.

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NegativeValue0:12

Josh Jacobs should be allowed to fall in ADP to round five or later before considering drafting him, as his legal troubles and suspension risk make him too risky at his current round three ADP.

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PositiveValue0:12

If Jacobs drops to round five, that's where you should pounce on him because historically that's where the drop-off occurs and the first four rounds are locked in for production.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection0:22

Justin Herbert is a great quarterback pick this season and the analyst loves him.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection0:02

Justin Jefferson was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveProjection0:29

Katon Mitchell could get 10-12 opportunities per game if things go his way and would be a highly efficient late-round pick.

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PositiveSleeper0:29

Late-round tight end prospect who could get 10-12 opportunities per game if things go his way and be a highly efficient player, making him a worthwhile end-of-draft shot.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeProjection0:08

Kenneth Walker is much better in half PPR than full PPR because he won't be heavily involved in the receiving game.

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NegativeUsage0:08

Kenneth Walker is much better in half PPR than full PPR because he's not going to be highly involved in the receiving game.

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Kyle Williams

PositiveRole0:30

Quarterback on the drafted team roster.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveProjection0:16

McConkey is set up for a really good season and will benefit from the Chargers running more two-wide receiver sets where he'll compete against backup tight ends rather than slot receivers, increasing his targets per route.

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PositiveRole0:16

McConkey will benefit from the Chargers' two-wide receiver sets and the team's overall offensive scheme, making him a slam dunk pick as your second wide receiver in full PPR.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveProjection0:17

Described as a great quarterback pick in round five, with strong fantasy potential.

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PositiveProjection0:24

Lamar Jackson is in the top tier of quarterbacks with MVP potential and the ability to dominate in fantasy.

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Malik Willis

NegativeProjection0:04

The analyst has pretty big concerns about the Texans offense and believes people are being too aggressive with Malik Willis right now.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue0:23

Mike Evans would have been the analyst's pick at this spot if he was available, indicating strong value.

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Nico Collins

PositiveProjection0:02

Nico Collins was drafted in the early second round in this mock draft.

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Odell Beckham

PositiveRole0:03

Odell Beckham Jr. is set up well for the format with the Dolphins trying to run top-five plays this season at the fastest pace, and he's their most established target who will get a boatload of targets if he stays healthy.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue0:25

Parker Washington is a solid wide receiver pick in the middle rounds of the draft.

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PositiveProjection0:25

Parker Washington is a pretty solid wide receiver pick in this range.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveProjection0:02

Puka Nacua was drafted in the early second round (around pick 13-14) in this mock draft.

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Quentin Johnston

PositiveRole0:30

Wide receiver on the drafted team roster.

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Rashee Rice

PositiveInjury0:05

Rasheed Rice's knee procedure was minor cleanup with no long-term concerns; he will be fully recovered by training camp and should go first among the three risky players discussed.

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PositiveProjection0:06

Rasheed Rice is better in full PPR format than in half PPR.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveSleeper0:28

Diggs is worth a shot in the 13th round as a reddraft pick with potential landing spots in KC, Seattle, Vegas, or Washington, and can be easily dropped if he doesn't land in a good situation.

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PositiveValue0:30

13th round pick in redraft leagues who can be easily dropped in week one if he doesn't have a role or team situation, making him a low-risk late-round flier.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveProjection0:21

Set up for an awesome season and preferred pick in round six based on ADP value, with strong fantasy potential.

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PositiveProjection0:21

Terry McLaurin is set up for an awesome season and represents good value relative to ADP, which is barely technically Adams.

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PositiveRole0:30

Wide receiver on the drafted team roster.

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Travis Etienne

PositiveProjection0:01

Travis Etienne is expected to be drafted in the late first/early second round range as the computer draft targets running backs heavily.

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PositiveRole0:11

Travis Etienne is a better option than Josh Jacobs at this draft spot due to Jacobs' legal troubles and suspension risk.

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Trayvon Henderson

PositiveBreakout0:19

Strong upside pick in round five due to expected receiving game involvement, improved offense with Drake May's second year in system, and AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs on roster; pass blocking was his issue last season but likely improved in offseason.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection0:22

Trevor Lawrence is a great quarterback pick and the analyst likes him a decent amount this season.

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Treylon Burks

PositiveValue0:18

Preferred in half PPR format over Zay Jones, though Zay is the pick in this scenario.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveRole0:26

Tyler Warren is a tight end option worth targeting early if he falls, as an alternative to Bowers and Loveland to avoid heavy late-round position investment.

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Zay Jones

PositiveValue0:18

Preferred wide receiver pick in round five over Jamar Chase and T. Higgins due to risk concerns, with slight preference over Burks in half PPR format.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

325
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. It's Monday.
0:02It's time to time Jeff Monday. Uh request to do a 10 team leagues. We're doing 10 team. We'll do early. We've
0:08done a ton of middle and late ones.
0:09We'll do pick like four or something like that. Um we'll do full PPR and let's add in uh another flex spot. I do
0:18think if you're in a 10 team league, you should probably have two flex spots. Uh just makes the league a little deeper,
0:22adds more players to the player pool. Um yeah, we'll do that. And then let's put um running back back on high because
0:30that is the expectation that a lot of drafts will have this season. So Bejon, Jir Gibbs, Christian McAffrey one, two,
0:38and three. Um, I want to talk about uh you'll see in the thumbnail of this video, maybe the title as well, some of
0:45these situations around Jacob's neighbors or she rice, but we'll wait until they go roughly in round three or so. Uh, and we'll see where they end up
0:53going in this draft and I'll basically talk about my thoughts on those situations. But we will start to draft off uh not talking about them just yet.
1:02So, if this happen, if you're drafting early, um, this is not an like a crazy build. Be John and Gibbs will go one two
1:10in every single format. Even like, you know, a deeper format where people sometimes lean wide receiver, even like a three wide receiver format. I really
1:17think Bon Gibbs will always go one, two.
1:19What happens at three will be interesting. I do think right now most of the time is Jamar Chase, but uh as
1:26you will see, running back ADPs are going to climb. Uh people are going to really be wanting that running back. I
1:31wouldn't be shocked if Christian McCaffrey was healthy going into week one. And by late August, people were looking to maybe take him this early,
1:39especially in full PPR as we are now.
1:40He's coming off a 100 reception season.
1:42Uh and basically, if he stays healthy, he's going to be a top three running back yet again. So, not a uh crazy
1:47start, but I think more often you'll see Chase. I think we'll end up going Chase.
1:51And maybe it'll be another draft where we kind of see what happens as far as the running backs are concerned. We know
1:56we told the computer draft running backs very heavy. The computer is going to do that. My guess is we'll be looking at
2:01this like Ken Walker, Bree Hall, uh Dererick Henry, Travis ETN range. Um and Jacobs we'll talk about um kind of at
2:10the tail end of round two into round three. Um so if you wanted to go JT, you could. It's just like again Christian
2:18McCaffrey sets up more for full PPR, not as much Jonathan Taylor. Uh, so I think you would just take chase and you would
2:25just hope that your room doesn't go too aggressively into the uh, running position. Also, we're in a two flex league, so we can start uh, for wide
2:35outs if we want to. So, all that we will draft Jamar Chase and we will see what happens. So, I'll pull up the draft
2:41board here. Um, not crazy running back heavy actually.
2:45So, JT goes, Genty goes, James Cook goes, but then a lot of wide receivers.
2:50Um, again, that's what the format uh kind of pushes you a little bit more towards than average. Uh, we see Puka,
2:56JSN, Aman, Rra, Jefferson, Lamb, uh, Drake London, Pickkins, and Nikico, and then Brock Bowers also off the board 13th overall. I definitely would have
3:05considered Brock Bowers at this pick. I love him this season. And in full PPR, he's a better pick because he can
3:11separate from that back end of tight end a little bit more. So, we are on the board. Obviously, we are not doing
3:17quarterback. never do quarterback in round two unless it is a superflex league and we are not on uh McBride this season. So, uh Loveland and maybe Warren
3:26will be the next options we look at at tight end, but that will not be happening in round two. So, it will be a
3:31wide receiver or running back. At wide receiver, um we'll talk about those situations in round three, I think.
3:39Would not go Rice, would not go um Dvont Smith, would not go AJ Brown. neighbors.
3:46You could consider Olive set up pretty well for the format. Um, this team is going to try to run top five plays this
3:52season. They're going to play at the fastest pace and if the offense improves, they can maybe play, you know, top five plays in the league. They're
3:58going to throw the ball a decent amount.
3:59He's um I don't want to say by a mile their best target because Jordan Tyson's a great prospect, but their most
4:04established target going to be getting a boatload of targets. I mean, like realistically, if he stays healthy, he's going to be a phenomenal pick this
4:13season. So absolutely in consideration for us here. Uh and then you have uh Achan who I mean it's highlighting right now Extreme Value. Like yeah, Achan's a
4:22very very good pick at this spot. I have my um pretty big concerns about this offense. Um I genuinely believe they
4:30might be a lot worse than people think.
4:32Um I think people are being a little bit too aggressive with Malik Malik Willis right now. But even with all that
4:39thinking, A Chan is the focal point of the offense. And even if they don't, you know, have this like dink and dump
4:45offense, he is still going to rack up a ton of receptions, I don't have a running back yet. It just makes way too
4:51much sense to grab the value uh and just take Devon Han right now. Like I just I don't see a world where this is my main
4:58league, even being a little bit off Han where I would not take him here. 17th overall on a full PPR format where I
5:04don't have a running back to start. So I would take Han and we'll see what happens after that. So I take him. Um,
5:11we see Trey McBride go, we see Marin Hampton, Saquon go, uh, AJ Brown, who is now on the Patriots, uh, Rasheed Rice
5:18and Dvont Smith. So, we can talk a little bit about, um, we'll start with Rasheed Rice. Among these three situations that we don't know right now,
5:26Rice is the one I'm least concerned with, which is a little bit crazy to say because he's literally in jail right
5:32now. He's rehabbing from a knee procedure in jail. The thing is, it was a minor cleanup procedure. It's nothing to worry about. Secondly, he's
5:41definitely getting preferential treatment. There's no way he's not getting that. Third, uh like it's not like he did something right now that's
5:48going to cause a big suspension in season. He violated a parole from something he's already been suspended for. So, I'm not like worried about that
5:57sort of situation where I am worried about suspension for Jacobs who we got to. And I am worried about the injury
6:03for Malik Neighbors. I'm not worried about this injury for Rasheed Rice. It again was a minor procedure. He's going to be totally fine come training camp.
6:11And I believe like given timelines, I mean, training camp's not for a month and a week or two, something like that.
6:18So, he's he's going to be back, right?
6:20He's going to be out of jail by that point. So, uh yeah, like I'm not I'm not worried about Rashid Rice. He should be
6:26going first among those three. I think that was a perfectly fine spot to get him. And he's better in full PPR than he
6:31is in half. Uh so again uh our option here is quarterback but among the options of going Josh Allen round three
6:39or waiting a little bit and grabbing those like mid quarterbacks. I'd rather wait and grab the mid quarterback. So end of round three maybe at that like 34
6:46turn better for Josh Allen. I don't think I would go with him here and the data in full PPR 10 team league says do
6:54not go quarterback with this third pick.
6:56Um running back great value on Chase Brown. problem is, you can see here, uh, we've got the risk. Uh, we we drafted
7:05Chase. And so, I personally, if this was my like big league, would not go Chase Brown and Jamar Chase. You run the risk
7:13of something happening like last season.
7:15You get an injury to Joe Burrow. All of a sudden, two of your top three picks have their quarterback injured. You see
7:22way too much of downgrade there, and the up and down production is too much. So, I wouldn't do it. um unfortunate because
7:29he's by far the best running back pick on the board in my opinion right now just in terms of like safety mixed with
7:35upside. He's going to be great this season. Going to get plenty of touches.
7:38So if you wanted to kind of risk it and do that, you can. I just wouldn't in my in my league. Um you could go Jeremiah
7:46Love. The risk there is basically that this could be the worst team in the league. Uh you know that that like if Br
7:52is the quarterback to start the season, you're not as concerned because maybe they drop back a lot. maybe um the offense a little bit better. He will not
7:58be the quarterback all season. Like they're going to go to Carson Beck.
8:01They're going to like go to a third quarterback if that doesn't work out and really tank for that number one pick.
8:06So, the offense is going to be bad at some point. It's also like they were good last season on offense and fantasy,
8:12but bad in reality. And they were good in fantasy because they were literally dropping back like 50 times a game.
8:17That's not going to happen this season, especially when they go to Beck. Those pass dumps are coming way down and the
8:21volume's coming way down. And when the volume takes a big hit, uh, Love's going to need a huge share of this offense.
8:27And we don't know really yet if that's like totally going to happen. I mean, he's gonna have a big share of the
8:32offense. We don't know if it's going to be like 80 90%. Uh, so I don't know uh about taking him at this spot. Um, Ken
8:40Walker much better in half PPR than full PPR. Um, he's just not going to be hyperly involved in the receiving game.
8:47Uh, that's somewhat of concern. Bree Hall, great talent. Um, I feel like he'd honestly be fine taking the spot. But all these guys, it's like it's tough. I
8:56I feel like in there's a reason why you can maybe say you don't love them. And I wish I could just take Chase Brown right now because
9:05he's definitely among them. Uh, the safest option. You just know the role is going to be really good. Uh, or we just
9:12go with Chris Olive. Uh, data says slightly better for wide receiver in this exact format. 8% boost versus 5% boost. Uh net neutral tight end. He had
9:22negative4 quarterback. I don't hate it.
9:26Um because starting off, you know, achan with Jamar Chase and Chris Olav, it's a really good start to the draft. I just
9:32know we're going to get some really strong picks here and like there's a lot of these guys that go in the top like
9:38even 70. That'd be fine with kind of like taking two of them in the flex spot, having a more mediocre wide
9:43receiver too because I have Jamar Chase.
9:45So I lean towards just taking the running back. Let me know what you guys would do. I I just still think you just
9:49don't take Chase Brown. I think it's just a little bit too risky here. And maybe I just will go with Jeremiah Love.
9:54He is my top projected uh in this scoring format. But I'd love to know what you guys think. I guess the upside
10:00for Love is obviously if he hits as a prospect and he is someone that's using 80 85% of the time and they run the
10:07offense through him, that's great. And they have like okay skill players to where like what if Carson Beck actually ended up being okay. I don't think
10:13that's going to happen. But I didn't think Shuck would be good last season.
10:16And then look what we're talking about Shuck now. So Carson Beck could still go in there, pull off a Shuck, and we're
10:22like, "Holy cow, this offense is way better than we thought." So it's still a possibility. Uh I just much prefer uh
10:28Chase Brown, but let's just go with um let's go with Love. Um and we'll uh we'll see what happens. And that's also a little bit why I just went
10:36with Love. Goodness. So we go with him, right? The next one, two, three, four, five, six, seven picks in a row, all
10:43running back. Chase Brown, Dererick Henry, Ken Walker, uh Bree Hall, Jacobs, Travis ETN, Kairen, then it goes Lovelin, who I would have wanted with this fourth pick.
10:53Uh then Scatteraboo, Josh Allen, who I also would have taken with this fourth pick, Olave, who I also would have taken, and then Garrett Wilson. So, a
10:59little bit unfortunate that like all this uh this fourth round was a lot of lot of the picks we wanted. Um but we
11:06got another player. So, Jacobs goes in round three. Neighbors is not gone yet.
11:11We'll talk about Jacobs. I'm more concerned. So, number one, he could be like um charged criminally and mist time because of that. Number two, that
11:23doesn't even need to happen. The NFL will do their own investigation into what happened with Jacobs. Um I don't want to say too much and be demonetized
11:29for this video. So, uh but Jacobs is in some legal trouble right now. And so if the NFL decides this is too much
11:39under personal conduct, uh we are going to suspend you. It's probably at least 6 weeks. If like he gets charged with
11:48something, I mean, I don't think it's going to be a year, but it could be like 8 to 12 weeks. And just because those
11:53possibilities exist in this range, are you really taking Jacobs over like Travisen? No. Over Chairen? No. Maybe Scataboo like if you're a little bit
12:05worried about the injury, but there's still good running backs. Javant Williams is still kind of locked in.
12:10Trayvon has that upside. Even Judkins has that upside. When we start getting into like Swift and Bucky and and Montgomery where we're dropping down a
12:18little bit into that next tier, that's when I I think I'd start to be like, okay, Jacobs is like risky, but if
12:24nothing comes of this, you got great value. um even if he's suspended to start the year, um it hurts you a little
12:29bit less taking him in like the fifth round than it does the third round where he goes a lot of the time right now. So,
12:36I don't think I would draft uh Josh Jacobs right now. I think I'd continue to let his ADP fall and kind of see
12:42where it bottoms out. Um because especially like just at multiple positions, there's just really good picks on the board that are going to
12:49help you out that even if Jacobs was fully good to go in week one, you could still argue we're just as good of picks
12:56as Jacobs. So for right now, if he drops to round five, I think that's where you're kind of pouncing on that because
13:02historically that's where you see the drop off anyways. First four rounds are very very um locked in for production.
13:08Like you're probably getting a very good player. Uh once you get round five, it's a little bit worse. Okay, our next pick,
13:14uh, as you can see up top here on dynamic rankings. Uh, quarterback, no.
13:18Tight end, no. Running back, slightly an O. It's neative 1%, but plus 11% for wide receiver. Uh, again, if you have
13:26access to the website, you have this for not only mock draft, but for when you're doing an actual draft. Um, this is
13:31considering 10 team, full PPR, two flex.
13:35Taking all of that into account, what have teams done historically that have made it to the playoffs? Well, at this spot, given our start, they have gone
13:42wide receiver. So, it's telling you, hey, lean towards wide receiver right now. Um, and it'll adjust value accordingly for that. Right now, I have
13:51neighbors as top projected, but in the next update, it that will not be happening. So, I have an update that I'm
13:57working on right now that'll be pushed I think sometime like this afternoon. You guys are seeing this. You'll probably see this around like 11 or noon.
14:02Sometime this afternoon, there'll be an update that drops the names a little bit more. Um, Lad will be the top wide
14:07receiver after that.
14:09I don't know what's going to happen with Malik Neighbor. So, we saw the video uh of like a charity softball game or
14:15something like that where like he I understand is not going to fill out obviously uh but clearly is limited by the knee still. Then you have um head
14:25coach talking about how like they don't really know when he's coming back. It's not a simple injury and we knew that,
14:30right? We knew that it was not a clean ACL tear. If you only tear the ACL, it's a clean tear.
14:36Especially younger, very athletic players like Mike Neighbors, come back great from that. Come back faster, come back stronger. Um, you're able to rely
14:44on the production quicker. The return to performance is much quicker when it is not a simple tear even and that just
14:51means like there's other ligaments involved. It just requires a little bit more and so that timeline gets pushed out. So, I wouldn't be surprised if
15:00neighbors misses the first month of the season. if Neighbors is out the first six weeks if it is a ramp up from there
15:06and to where he's not, you know, Malik Neighbors that we were expecting before until next year. Uh, but maybe like fantasy playoff time like maybe he's
15:14kind of peing a little bit more. And so on a site like Underdog or DraftKings where you're doing best that is more
15:21okay because you're like, okay, like if anything and I draft Malik Neighbors, it's almost like you want to advance a team where he plays poorly during the
15:30season. want to advance a team where he does nothing for the first 10 weeks of the year and he's a low advancement rate
15:34and you have him in the playoff in reddraft which most of you play. That is not what you want. You you do not want
15:40your player missing time. It's going to really hurt you this early. So another player I probably would not be taking here again. If Jacobs goes in round
15:46five, I can take him there. If Neighbors here drop to round five, I could start considering it like maybe with our next
15:52pick. If we go with Lad here and then we go with Neighbors in our next pick. Now Neighbors is our third wide receiver.
15:58it's a little bit better for us. Uh, but I just would not consider either of them until round five. So, I think we're
16:04going to go with um we could go with Javvante, but he definitely does not fit the format. Um, Judkins, same way. Just
16:10doesn't really fit the format as much.
16:11We already have the two running backs.
16:13Data is telling us wide receiver. Uh, just take Lad, who I think is set up for just a really, really good season this
16:20year. They're going to play more two wide receiver sets, but he'll be in two wide receiver sets, and that's a good
16:26thing. So, everyone, and I'll do a video about this, everyone is having all these comments about, you know, two wide receiver sets and how they can impact
16:33wide receivers. It is a positive for the wide receivers who are on the field in those two wide receiver sets. So, if you
16:39know who's going to be out there there, they're competing instead of competing with a slot wide receiver, they're competing with a backup tight end. And
16:47on teams like the Eagles, right, where they're going to have two good receiving options, that's not as good because Sour is basically a slot wide receiver. But
16:55on teams that that backup tight end is just a pure blocking tight end. You're going from competing with a slot wide
17:00receiver to competing with a blocking tight end who's not going to get the ball. All of a sudden, your targets per
17:04rout goes way up and it's a positive.
17:07And I think that happens for LA a little bit. I think they're going to run more uh two tight end sets with like Gadston
17:12and Injoku. And I also just think the offense is going to be exceptional. I just really think the Chargers are a
17:17team you want to invest in. So as your second wide receiver in full PPR, that is a slam dunk pick. Okay, pull up the
17:22draft board here. Um, Ibuka Neighbors and Tet go. Tyler Warren's off the board now. Uh, Joe Burrow goes, and then Javvant Williams. So, we're in round
17:31five. This is also where I start to consider the quarterback position. Uh, data still tells us that you probably want to wait until the sixth round. It's
17:38negative 8% right now. Um, plus 1% for running back, plus 8% for wide receiver.
17:42So, still the lean on wide receiver, but still a positive playoff rate over expectation if you do go with a running
17:48back here. If you look at quarterback, Lamar's a great pick. Um, honestly, Drake May is a great pick at this spot.
17:54Uh, I would say like Caleb, Jaden Daniels, Jaylen Herz, all more round six picks, but if we consider it, you know,
18:02there's five, right? And we look at the board, there's only 10 teams and two have already taken quarterback. So, if we think there are only five teams that
18:10when we pick now until round six that are going to go. So, if we just don't take quarterback, all of them in their
18:15next two rounds have to take a quarterback for us to truly get burned and not make that first tier, which I
18:19really want to do in a 10 team league. I want to have one of the top seven. Um, it could happen, but the odds are a
18:27little bit in our favor that it's not going to happen. So, I think we avoid quarterback. Uh, we definitely avoid tight end at this point. Wide receiver,
18:35that's that's honestly just tough. Like it maybe uh like if we had gone Puka, we could have gone with um Chase Brown at
18:42one point, we could have gone with T.
18:43Higgins. Now, unfortunately, again, I'm not going to take Jamar Chase and T.
18:46Higgins. I think it's just too much risk at that spot. Um, so I would say like Z.
18:53Z or Burden, but Burden would be someone that I'd like a little bit more to half PPR format. So I think Zay would be our
18:59pick at wide receiver, but I would go running back. We're about to hit a range where running back's going to really
19:04really start dropping off. So I would rather just take the upside of Treyot Henderson. Um, he's going to be involved in the receiving game hopefully. I mean,
19:11it was really the the pass blocking that did him in last season, which is another thing we want to consider with prospects
19:17is that they're prospects. And, you know, he was considered the best pass blocking prospect going into last year.
19:22And he was benched because he couldn't pass protect. So, we can evaluate all we want for some of these guys. You don't
19:29know what's going to happen when they when they go into the NFL. Um, my guess is that's a big thing he worked on in
19:35the offseason. Um, we know the receiving talent there is there. We know they want to utilize him an explosive role on this
19:41offense. We know the offense is going to be much better this season. Um slightly improved offensive line. You've got another year for Drake May in the
19:48system. Uh but you've got AJ Brown on the team. You've got Romeo Dobs on the team. Like this is going to be a better
19:53offense. You want to be investing in them again this season. Um so yeah, Trayvon just a really good pick at this
19:59spot. I do see a lot of quarterbacks going off the board. Oh, only two. Okay, but it was a two we wanted of course. Uh
20:05so Lamar goes, Drake Magos. That makes sense. uh TZ and Luther go off the board and then the running backs that we
20:11thought were going to go, you know, Swift, Judkins, Bucky, Monty, Tuin, Chuba, Price. So, we're in we're in a range now at running back where it's
20:19just simply not as good. Clearly less upside. Great getting the three that we got. Also, data telling us the only position right now that gives you a
20:27positive playoff rate over expectation is wide receiver. So, it's, you know, I think still given this season, Caleb, Daniels, and Burrow are options. Uh, but
20:38if we pull up the board, this team already has I said Burrow there, Burrow's taken. Um, Caleb, Daniels, and and Jaylen Herz. Um,
20:47there's three quarterbacks that we would want at this pick. One of these teams already has it. There's no way this team
20:52is going to draft another quarterback.
20:53So, we're good to wait until round seven. I bet you only one quarterback is left. I don't care which one it is.
20:58We'll take that quarterback. We're not going to go quarterback. We'll take that in round seven. Uh we're not going to go
21:02running back here. We're not going to go tight end. We'll just take the top wide receiver. Um valuewise, if we're looking
21:07at like ADP, um it's barely technically Adams, but I think uh Terry McLuren is set up for an awesome season here. So, I
21:15would draft Terry McLuren. But if you want to go Adams for the touchdowns, I think that's totally fine, too, as well.
21:19So, I'll take Terry McLuren. Two quarterbacks do go off the board, but Caleb Williams is still there. And, you know, mixed opinions on Caleb Williams
21:28from a lot of people, but I do think that he's set up for a really good season. Uh, unfortunate that the um
21:37I believe the playoff strength of schedule is really tough because of just outdoor games. Um, but he's still a player that, you know, when they I do
21:46the strength of schedule video, right?
21:48And I think people's reaction to it sometimes is like, I want a tough strength of schedule. And to a way you
21:54can somewhat agree with that and say, "Yeah, when the Bears are playing a really good team, it can be a positive
21:59for them because that team pushes them."
22:01One negative on strength of schedule is I do dock these like outdoor games later in the analysis for it. Um, and I do
22:08dock um like defense. It's like defensive um efficiency is still baked into the model. So, it's not just saying who are who's playing tough teams. it is
22:18saying who's playing tough teams that have good defenses and their outdoor games and especially for a team like Chicago. Those outdoor games are not
22:26good late in the season from a passing perspective. So, it's something that's got to be in the back of your mind when
22:30you do think about Chicago players and especially their quarterback is like we could get some blizzard conditions in the fantasy playoffs and that's not a
22:36good thing. But, uh in a 10 team league especially, I do kind of want to grab a quarterback before this drop off. data
22:43still says uh wide receiver is the best pick here, but I think I would take Caleb. Um I'd be totally fine waiting
22:49though because it's like Dart's a great pick, Herbert's a great pick, Lawrence a great pick, uh Dak Prescott, Brock Perie. Um like there's good I think
22:58after that, maybe not as much anymore.
23:00In a 10 team league, you can afford to wait along. I bet you those guys kind of last a decent amount of time. So, I
23:05would be fine waiting here and maybe that is the play and just take someone like Adams cuz we're in a great range
23:12for wide receiver as well. I would have taken Mike Evans if he was available at this pick, but like Adam's a good pick.
23:18Wadd um Dunay's solid. Jordan Tyson and I kind of want to just take Adams.
23:28Yeah, I think I might want to just take Adams and wait. Let's do that.
23:33Let's follow the data. Data is telling us do the wide receiver with that pick.
23:36Oh, Caleb is still there. Okay, so that was easy. Take uh take Adams, take Caleb, and then I'll pull the draft
23:43board now. Um yeah, that was the optimal play there. So, grab that fourth wide receiver. We can start four wide receivers. If Trayvon happens to not be
23:51doing anything to start the year, we can give him a little bit more time on our bench. Um but we're locked in at this
23:56point. So, we've got Achan, Jeremiah Love, and Trayvon. We've got very young, very athletic running back room. And we got Jamar Chase, Lad McConi, uh Terry
24:06McLuren and Adams at wide receiver.
24:08Feeling good about that. Um and we've got Caleb. Uh but again, I think that was the play, too, because like I love
24:15Herbert this season. Um I like Trevor Lawrence a decent amount. I really like Jackson Dart in a 10 team league.
24:22Yeah, maybe maybe I just view Caleb kind of at the end of that tier because when I think about um these top quarterbacks
24:27that I want, I want Lamar because he could be the MVP this season. He could, you know, dominate in fantasy. I think
24:33Drake May could do a similar thing. Josh Allen, um Jaden Daniels, I feel like those four I feel like have a ceiling to
24:41where like they could be the top quarterback by like one or two points per game if everything goes their way. I
24:45don't know that that's necessarily the case for like Joe Burrow, Jaylen Herz, and Caleb. So, I feel like they're kind of at the end of that grouping. And
24:51maybe in a 10 team league when I know people aren't going to be s like hyperly aggressive at quarterback, maybe I view
24:58Caleb closer to this like Dart, Trevor Lawrence, and um Dak and Herbert sort of range. So, maybe something I have to
25:05consider in the analysis there, but I still think uh Caleb obviously a good pick at this spot. Uh so, next up, I
25:10yeah, I think you would go with um running back and wide receiver are both positive right now. Uh, I think you'd go
25:16with probably another running back here and try and just build evenly the rest of the way. Warren's a good pick. Uh,
25:22Manunga doesn't fit the format as much, but projections are still fine with him.
25:25Uh, Rico kind of same way. I don't think either one of these guys rack up a ton of receptions. Uh, but I think Warren
25:30can rack up a lot of receptions. Um, Gainwell, I think, is a good pick if we can get him in the next round as well.
25:36Um, some decent wide receiver options.
25:39Um, ADP-wise, Metaf's of value, but I don't trust it fully this season. Um, I don't think you need to go with these
25:47guys, but like Mai Lemon, Parker Washington, and Metaf are all pretty solid picks. Even Jordan Addison here, um, I still think it's build evenly,
25:54take Warren, a guy that can rack up. I mean, he could he could have 60 receptions this season and you're getting him in the ninth round as your
26:02fourth running back. A great guy you could just throw in there, get some production for if you truly needed it.
26:08All right, so we go with him. Um, does anything weird happen? Uh, not really.
26:12Bon Knicks goes, Sam Laora goes, uh, a lot of the wide receivers I just mentioned go, and then some running backs and unfortunately, um, Gainwell
26:20gone as well. So, I think for the rest of the way, you basically just take your top projected running back, wide
26:26receiver. Eventually, we have seven picks left. You're just going to have to grab tight end. Maybe you go double dipping. Um, again, if I don't get one
26:35of Bowers, Loveland, or maybe Tyler Warren if he falls a little bit. If I don't get one of them, I'm just either
26:42taking one or double dipping late. Um, I don't want to be investing heavily in the position, especially in a 10 team
26:47league. Just wait, wait, wait, wait, wait at tight end. There's going to be an option for you available. If you wait
26:52super long, just take two of them. Uh, so we're going to have four bench spots, tight end, defense, kicker. We could
27:00legitimately end this draft with tight end, tight end, defense, kicker, and that would be totally fine. So, we could go four consecutive running backs and
27:07wide receivers still. At this point, we will track if Ferguson, Dalton Concade, if they kind of fall a little bit, but
27:15if they don't, it is totally fine for us to keep drafting um these running backs and receivers. So, I think you just you
27:22take Addison. Uh next pick. Um I would consider I would consider doing
27:30Brooks here. Um, I don't know that he has a high-end receiving profile, but he's got the talent, right? He's a great pro was a
27:42great prospect. Very unfortunate knee injuries he's had. They're going to bring him along slowly. I don't think he starts a season that great. Uh, but as
27:48your fifth running back, do you want to just take a shot on that upside? Cuz after that, truly, there's a pretty big
27:53drop off. I'll be interested in Katon Mitchell in a little bit, but JCM's not going to catch passes. Chris Rodriguez has a foot injury and also wasn't going
27:59to catch passes. uh Taran Tracy Jr. once scatter good to go is not going to be a factor. Uh then you're in your like
28:05Spears, Woody Mars, Katon Mitchell, Pacheco range like Brooks at least was a very high-end prospect at one point. Uh brutal schedule that's very unfortunate
28:16for a running back especially in one like uh that's not going to catch a lot of passes. Um but I don't necessarily
28:23think we need to go with a wide receiver at this spot. So I think you just take Brooks. Um, if Ferguson can cater kind
28:30of there at the next pick, we can go with them. Um, let's see. Ferguson is there, so we can go Ferguson at the next pick. Uh, I
28:39would probably go back to wide receiver after this and just take your favorite option. I like Coker. Um, I don't know. You could take a shot on
28:48Digs and just be like, "Hey, does he land in KC?" Um, I don't know what's another good landing spot for Diggs. Um,
28:58I don't know. Does Seattle want digs?
29:01Um, does he land in Vegas? Um, Commanders, like there's there's options here to where he could land an okay spot. And it's like I like Coker. I like
29:12taking a shot on Omar Cooper, maybe Jawan if there's an injury somewhere, but none of these guys have like crazy high-end upside. I don't think Diggs
29:20does either, but he's not like a bad pick to be making this range. So, I would just, you know, take a shot on
29:24Stefan Diggs. Uh, we'll draft Katon Mitchell at this pick. Uh, we'll take our top defense. Um, I don't know.
29:33Again, I have this. I need to look into who has the best early. Okay, so Eagles have a great defense and they have the
29:38fifth best early season strength of schedule. So, we can take the Eagles and then I'll bring up the draft board here
29:43before uh we take our kicker. And that's basically it. I think this is going to get a solid score. I think this is a
29:51really solid draft. We didn't end up taking a second tight end, but I think that was fine because I like Katon
29:56Mitchell. I think he could get like, you know, 10 to 12 opportunities a game if things really go his way and he'd be a
30:02highly efficient player. So, I like taking him at the end of the draft. I like taking that shot on Stefon Diggs
30:07easily in a reddraft league, 13th round pick. You could dump that in week one.
30:12If Diggs isn't on a team, if Diggs isn't doing anything, has no role bad team, you could easily drop in before the
30:16season and grab a handcuff, grab a, you know, wide receiver that's breaking out, do anything you want, so it doesn't hurt
30:22you as like it does in like a basketball format. Um, and I think those are just more beneficial than grabbing just like
30:27a backup tight end. So, the team wide receivers Jamar Chase, Lad, Terry McLuren, uh, Adams, Addison, and Stefan Diggs, running backs, Achan, Jeremiah
30:38Love, Tayvon, uh, Jaylen Warren, Jonathan Brooks, and Katon Mitchell. And then we've got Kale Williams and Ferguson at quarterback and tight end,
30:46Eagles defense, and then we will take, uh, whoever the top uh, kicker is. Yeah, it's a good team. um
30:57good when you can basically get really strong running backs and receivers and especially in a format like this where there's two flex options. You've got to
31:03be starting that extra spot. You want to be good at both. Have some flexibility there. Um and I'm cool being lower. Like
31:09we have the last place tight end team.
31:11I'm cool being lower because we know that there's really a top end this season and historically mid- tight end just doesn't work out that great. And so
31:21I'm cool kind of being uh lower a little bit there. They said we should have gone Chris Rodriguez, but I think I also need
31:27to drop Chris Rodriguez a little bit in the projections right now given the foot injury. Um they would have liked that a
31:31little bit more. It's just funny a little bit more. They So the computer is like, "Hey, you can still wait like you
31:36can still just not draft that tight end and wait until the very last opportunity to draft a tight end." Um yeah, but uh I
31:45think Ferguson still was kind of better than a lot of those picks there. So, that's the team. Um, again, I'll just
31:52pull it up here so you guys can see that. Um, oh, I wanted to show you actually just really quick. Um, is this
31:59live? Okay, so this is just like a simulator I have running right now. Uh, but soon we're going to have an auction
32:06um mockdraft feature. So, if you are in the uh Discord soon, I'm going to have people testing this. I want thoughts on
32:16people who actually play in auction leagues. Like, what do you think about the tool? You're gonna have plans that you can create. So, let's just uh let's
32:25just draft Jar Chase in this one. Let's win this bid. Good grief. He's going for a million dollars. Okay, we won the bid.
32:33It'll show up in all the plans that you have. And so, you can like adjust your plans. You can have a bunch of different
32:37ones. You can just see like, okay, like what plan fits my current build right now. Uh you can see like the max bid.
32:43You can see the average, everything.
32:44have all the players over here. Uh you can view, well, I'm not signed in here, but you can view their their player card
32:49and all those sorts of things. See the information everywhere. Uh and then there'll be a drafting tool where you can like have this up while you're doing
32:56your actual draft. But um a lot of people just ask about um mock drafts for um auction leagues and they're like, you
33:03know, it's really difficult to actually do one because it takes so long to do them. I'm trying to make it as fast as
33:09possible and give you ways to kind of push forward in the draft. you can advance to the next round whenever you
33:14want. So when you have like $1 bids left, you can kind of do that quickly.
33:18Um you can skip right past players if you don't want to see any sort of simulation. Um so I'm trying to make it
33:22fast. Um but I want people who actually play an auction leagues to let me know like what other features they want to
33:27see and things like that. So I'll be done it soon as like a first run. It'll be up on the website. Um so be in the
33:33Discord. I'll ping you guys there. Uh and maybe I'll post it on Twitter as well. Um or X. Uh, and uh, I want people
33:41who play an auction lease to kind of test it out. So, let me know what you think on that. Let me know what you
33:45think on the um, team as well. Uh, but that will do it for this one and thank you all for watching. If you are new
33:51here, please hit subscribe. Uh, please hit the like button as well and I'll catch you all on the next one.

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