0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. It's Monday, so time is time for mock draft Monday.
0:04Today we're talking about early round draft strategy. Big questions I always get um because people typically want early first round pick when they're able
0:12to choose. Uh how do we approach the draft? What are the best strategies from an early first round pick? We're going
0:16to say one through four. I'm going to draft from the three spot in this one.
0:20So 12 team league half APR three spot.
0:22Also just want to shout out keeper mode here. Uh people have asked like how do you turn on keeper mode? It's very
0:27simple. There's literally says keeper mode right here. go in, add a keeper.
0:30You can put keepers on your team, other teams. Uh, so it's pretty simple right there, but a lot of people have not seen
0:35that. So, uh, everything else is going to be normal, normal quarterback tendencies. Uh, we're going to do two wide receiver, two running back, one
0:42flex, and we will discard our old draft, and we will start a new one. So, the first round is is very simple. For the
0:50first two picks, it's Bejon, it's Gibbs.
0:53Honestly, I don't care if you're in full PPR. If you are in full PPR3 wide receiver, you're going Bejon Gibbs first
0:59and second. I just think you got to be taking them first and second. Huge discussion I think on the 103 and the
1:05104. Pretty much any projection system, any sort of ranking set, it's going to tell you Puka and Chase, whichever you prefer. I prefer Jamar Chase because the
1:16touchdown ceiling is higher, slightly less off the- field concerns, slightly less injury concerns, uh slightly more explosive player. Um, obviously there
1:26are reasons to love Puka. He could have 220 targets this season if Adams went down. He could also spike for 17
1:33touchdowns. I just think baseline if everyone's healthy. Um, I prefer Jamar Chase. But again, it's a 50-50. You're not going to fault anyone for going Puka
1:40over Chase. But there is an argument and we're going to test it out in this one to taking Christian McCaffrey, especially in half PPR. But even full
1:49PPR, I mean McCaffrey just come off what 100 reception season. Um, and the thinking is from a strategy standpoint, you know, you you pull up the draft
1:56board here. Um, obviously we don't we can't look at all these picks that have happened, you know, late first in the
2:00second round, but when we get to this pick here at the back half of, uh, round two, it'll be the 210,
2:09the top end of running back is likely going to be on. So, when I talk about the top half, McAffrey, Jonathan Taylor,
2:16James Cook, Genty, those are what I would call like the first round running back talents. Um, Saquon, Ken Walker, Chase Brown, Hampton. That's kind of
2:24that next tier that's gonna basically go right at the swing right at the beginning of round two. And it's possible in your league one of them
2:34falls here. But you don't want to start off with a draft strategy assuming that something that is unlikely to occur will
2:39occur. Like we want to make this pick assuming that those guys are not going to be there. Um, so basically your
2:46decision will be does Bowowers fall to you? Um, do you are you still okay with Achan and Dererick Henry? Because we
2:52don't love um, Jeremiah Love, Kairen, Bree Hall, Javvante. We don't love them as much in uh, the second round. We like
3:00them a little bit more in the third round. One thought there is, well, you could still take them in the second
3:06round because there's only going to be four picks that go by and just pretend they're your third round pick, like lock
3:11in one of them and then go with a wide receiver in the next spot. Uh the thing is they're basically just a whole tier
3:16like this like Love, Chiron, Bree, Javvante. It's kind of a a grouping there where like you know they're not crazy different and so they're not all
3:27going to go at that turn. So one will probably be there in three. So basically again you're almost not leaning running
3:33back because I don't love Achan. I don't love Derrick Henry this season. I think that they are fine to take at the tail
3:38end of two, but you're getting such worse value of everyone else because they're get to double dip on um two amazing running back talents with
3:46high-end production. I think Achan can, you know, have a ton of rushing yards and Henry can have a ton of rushing
3:51yards, but I have concerns about both them. You know, Derrick Henry could have eight receptions in a full 17 weeks. Um,
3:57sure he's going to have those huge spikes and he's going to win you those weeks. But in reddraft leagues, the floor weeks, um, which crazy to say for
4:03Derrick Henry in the floor weeks, but there's going to be a lot of weeks where he still runs like 80 yards, but if it's
4:0780 yards, no touchdowns, no receptions, and half it's eight points. And I think he has a lot more of those that are
4:14probably going to happen this season.
4:15Um, so I just don't love it in two. I don't love it in round two. And then eight chances, the offense is so bad. I
4:19know it was bad last season, but you had checked down Charlie UA. You don't have that anymore. So, I don't like them at
4:25the uh end of the second round. And what that leads to is a lot of teams where you go with wide receiver. You know, you
4:31hope that one of like Jefferson or Lamb get there. They're not going to. Um but you're looking at this like AJ Brown,
4:35Drake London, Nico Neighbors kind of range is going to be there at the the second round pick or Bowers. And so if
4:41you start off with Puka or Chase and the running backs aren't there at two, you run the risk of the understanding that
4:50we want two running backs through three rounds. So, you run the risk of starting off with like two receivers or a
4:54receiver and a tight end. You get to round three, maybe the running back you like for round three also isn't there
4:59and you're forced to take one you don't love as much and it can very quickly fall off because now you got a huge turn
5:04until you get to late fourth, early fifth round. Maybe you don't love the value there. Maybe you're like, "Oh man, I wish I could have gone Lovelin in
5:10round four. I wish I could have gone uh with one of these great wide receivers cuz one of them fell to me." And you
5:15just feel like you're forcing running back. You never want to feel like you're forcing running back, but you're probably going to have to uh you know,
5:19if you start off with wide receiver, wide receiver. So, because of that, I get why people are saying, "Why don't I
5:25just take Christian McAffrey?" I understand that like he's at an elevated risk, but you just lost Ricky Pearl. Um Evans already has a quad strain. You got
5:33a rookie in shribling. KD's coming off a torn Achilles.
5:37Last year, we went into the season being like, "Why is Christian McCaffy the only healthy player on this offense sometimes? Uh he's always injured and he
5:44has a great season. he's a league winner. Like it could easily happen again. So just take him at three, lock in that running back and then you can do
5:52whatever you want in three and four. If you really wanted to go hero and just take McAffrey at three and then kind of
5:57take wide receivers and tight ends after that and then go back to uh running back in like round five or six, it doesn't
6:03really matter the definition of hero. It just be like having him as your baseline and not needing to go running back after
6:08that. Or or you can still go robust. You can still go with like, you know, uh three run max and five. You go two max
6:14and five. like you have all the options available to you. So, you never have to force it. So, it's a safer option even
6:19though projections and like math-based rankings are going to tell you it's Chase and Puka.
6:26Strategy-wise, it does actually make sense to go Maccaffrey. So, we'll do that and we'll just see what happens in this one. So, um
6:36pretty So, Han looks he's going to be there. So, relatively normal sort of build here. So, uh, it goes running back
6:43heavy to start. Uh, we see JT, James Cook, Genty, Chase Brown, Saquon, and Hampton go in round one. Uh, we see
6:51Henry go, and we see Ken Walker go round two, which means again, Han's kind of that last uh running back there. Um,
6:57Chase, Puka, JSN, Aman, Rah, Lamb, Jefferson, Nico, London, AJ Brown, and Pickin. So, the second round leans a little bit more towards those um towards
7:09those wide receivers. If we look at what's available to us, Achan again is that last second round running back I feel fine about in round two. Honestly,
7:19the 210 is like kind of ish the earliest I kind of like feel great about him. Um, if we scroll up a little bit, you can
7:27see dynamic here. So, in half PPR12 team, uh, if we take a running back, it is better taking wide receiver than
7:33running back, but both have a positive player expectation. So knowing that going in, you can start off running back running back in a 12 team half PPR
7:40league and it is a positive playoff for expectation. You can also start off running back wide receiver and that has a positive. So totally fine to do both
7:48of them. Um I'm definitely okay going neighbors. So this is another one. Um I actually have neighbors over George Pickins. Um right
7:56now I have him behind Nico, but I actually think I'm going to bump him up over Nico. The recovery looks like it's
8:01going really well. Um he's just a player that like, you know, if he's 100% by week like six, you're gonna have he'll
8:08return first round value. And so if I'm getting like third or fourth round value for the first six weeks of the season,
8:13then first round value, all the payoff is late, right? We're just trying to make the playoffs and anything can happen in the playoffs. Uh if Neighbors
8:20is a first round value in the playoffs, I get to pair him with Christian McCaffrey. That's just a pretty sweet ceiling. So Neighbor is an option. And
8:26then Brock Bower is also an option as well. um you have the luxury kind of of the double attempt at tight end when you
8:34have a late first round pick of you know you have that late fourth I would love Lovelin in the late fourth round
8:40especially now with um Burden having this groin injury which we'll talk about when we get to that general range um you so if you wanted to risk it and say
8:50okay I'm not going to take Bowers here maybe love the fall to me I think more so it's I really want one of them on my
8:55teams this season and so you just have two opportunities for wanted them to be there and we do have that opportunity
9:00right now of Bowowers being there. I also want to shout out um if you're drafting the website, you're drafting the dynamic rankings, it's almost never
9:08going to tell you Bowowers is like the clear top option in round two.
9:11Historically, we've not seen it. So, this is based off millions of drafts over the last decade. Negative 6% versus positive 7% positive 15% for running
9:19back and receiver. The math is going to tell you, okay, based on the last decade, it's not a good move going for
9:25round two tight end and really even round three. It's a better move waiting.
9:29The thing is, it's such a low sample size. We have what, one option every year. And so, your actual sample size,
9:36even over millions of drafts, is only working on one actual outcome. And the outcome of round two tight ends, especially when we count Bowowers last
9:43season, is not good. Like, on average, it's it's been underperforming the last decade. But that doesn't mean that this season Brock Bowers isn't gonna go off
9:53because everything is setting up for Brock Bowers to absolutely go off this season. Um, so I'm good taking him. Uh, I think I would take him over Achan. So
10:03I've said I will take all those running backs that have been off the board right now. I'll take all of them over Brock
10:07Bowers. But once they're gone, I genuinely think the decision is Bowowers or Neighbors. Do you want to take that shot on Neighbors or do you want to take
10:15the shot on Bowowers? Maybe you consider it risky going McAffrey and then Bowers, but this is a reddraft league, okay? You
10:22are risking it. You are trying to hit on one of the what 15 or so players that actually make a difference every season.
10:28That's all there's going to be is about 15 players. Everyone else is going to be replacement level. They're going to make
10:33minor positive or negative impacts. But you're going to look at your roster at the end of the season and be like,
10:36"These three players either won it or lost it for me." And sure, uh, some of these players could lose it for you, but
10:42the players that win it for you win it for you more than the players that lose it for you lose it for you. if that
10:46makes sense. Like if McAffrey gets injured uh and we're not able to to find a backup uh running back for him, that's
10:52going to hurt us. But if we draft Brock Bowers and he has clearly the number one tight end season, that will help us more
10:58than the loss of Macaffer is going to hurt us because we're not taking the zero in a reddraft league, we can still
11:04put someone else in there that we'll have to figure out at some point in this draft or through trades or through free
11:08agency. So all this to say, I think this one I'm going to go Bowowers. And again, even though he's not top here, um that's
11:15just the data pushing it in that direction. Uh he's still a very good pick, I think, in like the middle to
11:20late second round. So, let's take Brock Powers and let's see what happens. So, uh Rice and Neighbors go a Chan off the
11:27board and so is Trey McBride. That is basically what you should expect. Maybe not Rashi Rice given some of the negative news. Uh but it's not, you
11:35know, you shouldn't be surprised someone takes Rice. I never draft him, but I'm also behind ADP. ADP is very positive on
11:40or she rice. Okay. So, we are obviously not going to go tight end at this point.
11:46Uh, you know, negative 29% in here. Uh, it's it's adjusting down. I actually have something built in. So, it'll never adjust more than uh the 25% in the
11:54actual um rankings here, but it is telling us, hey, you do not draft a tight end at this point. That's very
12:00obvious for everyone. So, um, if we look at the math here, maybe somewhat surprising to some people, um, it's it's even running back and receiver. So, if
12:09you start off running back first and then you take Brock Bowers, you actually can go running back. You can force off
12:15wide receiver for one more spot. And I think that should make sense to us. I talked about this in the uh, wide
12:20receiver must draft video. 456 are awesome at wide receiver. Now, they're awesome at other positions as well. um you're probably not going quarterback in
12:29four or five, but running back in in four or five, there's also going to be some very good options, but we have wide
12:36receivers in that range that can push the round three guys like can push everyone that's on the board right now.
12:41I love, you know, Devont and Olive and Z and T, but genuinely like if we get to four and five and it's like there's
12:49Burden's there and Garrett's there and and Wadd and McLuren and Evans and Adams and Jo and Moore and you know, you start
12:56to run through that list and you're like those guys could absolutely outscore the Devonttos or Lave and the Z Flowers of
13:02the world. And so it becomes a situation where you you want to load up. Four, five, six is a great opportunity to load up at the wide
13:11receiver position and not force one that let's be honest like the difference between Neighbors and all these guys. If Neighbors is hitting on that first round
13:17value by mid-season, he's going to be crushing these guys in fantasy and you just missed out. So you never really want to be that guy that just misses out
13:24on his top end talent. So I wouldn't go tight end. I probably would not go wide receiver. We're definitely um So again,
13:32math here. it's going to be negative in round two. If you're drafting a dynamic, you're probably also not going to end up
13:37with quarterback in round three. And I think for the most part, I do actually agree with that one. Um, we've had great
13:43like Josh Allen, okay, think about this.
13:45He's been a round three quarterback for a while now and he's every year ending up top two. So, this isn't like low
13:51sample size with some bust mixed in. I mean, there are some busts mixed in, but like mixed in, can't say the word right
13:56now. Um, but Josh Allen every year is a round three quarterback. every year finishes top two and the data still tells us you probably want to lead
14:02running back wide receiver in that spot.
14:04Um this season especially there's such great value in the middle rounds at quarterback. There's going to be an opportunity in this draft for us to
14:11draft a quarterback at a really solid value that's very upset. It's going to happen. So we don't need to force Allen
14:17early third. If you want to take him late third I think that's totally fine.
14:19If you get to late third and you're like nah these options are okay but I'm not in love with them. Just take Josh Allen
14:24because he's going to be great this season. So, basically, we're taking the top running back on the board, and to me, that is uh Jeremiah Love. I get the
14:31concerns about Tyler Algier. Um Algier is going to have touches this season.
14:35He's going to mix in. Uh this is a brutal schedule they have. They're not going to win very many games at all. Um
14:42it's just it's it's not a good situation for Jeremiah Love to be in, but you've got, you know, the third overall pick in
14:49the draft, extraordinary talent. um still an offense that like you know has other people so they can't just like completely sell out to stop love. They
14:58have you know a superstar in uh Trey McBride. They have quality outside wide receivers and so um I still would rather
15:06lean on his talent. But if you wanted to go Kiran and just lock in 10 to 12 touchdowns I that's totally fine as
15:11well. I just you know you're not getting any receptions with Jeremia Love. The upside for or for Kron upside for Jeremiah Love is well uh the receptions,
15:20right? Like he he could rack up way more receptions than these guys and he could just be a talent they can't take off the
15:24field. You just don't know. All right, round three is very wide receiver heavy and then round four is very running back
15:30heavy. So Allen goes, Lovelin goes in the early fourth round. Uh we see Olave, Dvontto, Z, Lad, T, Garrett, and Ibuka
15:37come off the board for wide receiver.
15:39And then we see Kairen Bree, Judkins, Swift, uh Josh Jacobs, Tvon, Javvante, Dave Montgomery, and Cam Scataboo. Kind of a little bit brutal missing out on
15:48those two, but uh we did set up a little bit for um not going with that that running back there. Another thing I want
15:55to point out, uh and I would say a slight disagree with me on this one is running back is still fine. So the data
16:03is telling us and the data basically here is saying, okay, given all the teams that have started off with these positions this early on, if you wait on
16:12wide receiver and you draft a running back, what is what is the difference here in playoff rate for these teams that wait again at each position, wait
16:21on wide receiver, wait on tight end, wait on quarterback. So when you see a positive running back, you're saying, "Okay, the data tells us it's okay to
16:26wait on other positions one more round.
16:28Even though that feels very uncomfortable at wide receiver, um it is it is basically telling us like it's okay to do. There will be options later
16:36on. You're not going to crush your playoff rate." Personally, I still think this range has too many good wide receivers that I don't agree. I do think
16:46like this season um I would I would be attacking the wide receiver position.
16:50Like even though there's not one that necessarily stands out here, like McMillan's a great pick, Burden's a great pick, Wadd's a great pick. Like
16:57you're just going through and there's so many great picks. It's like, oh well, you could just wait and take one of them
17:00in five. Well, I want to take two of them. Like I just think that like we have McAffrey, we have Love, grab two
17:05wide receivers here, start loading up on some great values. You don't want to look back and be like, man, I start off
17:10running back heavy and then I just passed on four, five, six of taking these great wide receivers. No, I think the best strategy is to load up on those
17:17running backs, get two and three, either take Bowowers or a tight end in that second or third round, uh, and then try
17:23and load up on those wide receivers in these middle spots. I'm okay with ETN.
17:28The problem with ETN is, um, Kamar is going to have a role and and people are kind of talking like, oh,
17:34they blowing smoke. Like, I don't think so. I think given like the way ETN's talked about the split, the coaches and
17:40the offensive line, it's like every single person has, you know, mentioned this as something that is going to happen. There's going to be a split this
17:48season. Uh, and the most natural way to do that is to reduce the receiving workload for ETN. Uh, also, we're we're
17:54all in on on the Saints as an offense because of the volume and everything, but they're still 23 projected points per game. Uh, we still don't know how
17:59good Tyler Shuck is. So, uh, there are reasons to still be concerned there. I still find taking ETM, but I think you
18:05just take your top projected wide receiver. For me, that is T McMillan and we see what happens after that. Um, okay. So, we'll talk about Burden with
18:12this one. So, uh, we take T. Uh, we see Evans, McLuren, ETN, and Jane Daniels come off the board. Um, Burden. So, Burden's going to miss a
18:22month roughly. Whenever it's a month, it's like, well, you know, is that end up being three and a half weeks? End up
18:26being five and a half weeks. You know, there's some variance there. um groin injury.
18:32I would prefer like he's not a rookie, but he still was like, you know, going to need to expand in his role over camp.
18:39He was going to need to like learn a lot in Excuse me. He's going to learn a lot in camp, you know, be in that role,
18:44develop. Um we don't love it. We don't love to see it. Uh I still think I would take him here. I'm going to look over everything.
18:54I'm going to adjust the rankings. It's possible he falls a little bit from this spot, but we're not playing necessarily for week one. And this is a guy who, you
19:04know, I think could end up being a top 10 wide receiver this season, being absolutely dominant, getting a ton of schemed usage, a ton of yards after the
19:11catch, and just literally like he could be someone that has used almost like um you know, the next featured weapon in
19:16this offense. And to miss out on that because maybe he's limited in week one feels a little bit shortsighted. Again, we're playing for the playoffs. are
19:25playing for the second half of the season. Are we going to miss the playoffs at that much of a higher rate
19:30if Burden is limited in the first week of the season? If I'm that worried, we we can, you know, play him in the flex
19:36spot. Maybe he only goes out there and has like five or five. Maybe he goes out there and has like three for 50, but
19:43like we're we're probably not going to lose because Luther Burden doesn't go off in week one. And if he ends up not
19:48being out there, it's okay. We're not taking the zero. We can start someone else in that spot. Early season's the easiest time to make up production. So,
19:55I don't think I'm going to drop him that much. Um, will he move behind Wadd? I just again I don't know at this time, but I think I'm
20:03good at least right now just taking um taking Luther Burton, locking in someone that I feel fantastic about. You're hoping in your draft that he falls
20:12again. I said before I was willing to take him in round four. We're in round five. I think I'm good taking him. Uh,
20:16but I understand people being hesitant because we just don't know with the injury right now. All right. Lot of quarterbacks. That's actually rather
20:23unfortunate that that all the quarterbacks did go. So, what you're going to see in drafts is usually late fifth round into round six, that's when
20:30the quarterback run is going to happen.
20:31And you're hoping with an early first round pick, you catch the end of it. So, round six is where I do want to try and
20:36grab that quarterback. But, I want to grab one of Jane Daniels, Lamar, Burrow, May, Caleb Herz, Trevor Lawrence, Herbert. Um, I think for Lawrence and
20:44Herbert, more so seventh round picks.
20:47Again, like I said, the the seventh and sixth round is not that different between, you know, when you have a early
20:51first round pick. It's late six, early seven. So, if you just wanted to grab the quarterback and then whatever is left for you in the next round, that's
20:57fine doing that 67. Um, but we do miss out. So, we're into the Dak range and that won't I I still think in hometown
21:06leagues, you're probably still going to end up with one of those guys. Um, my computer systems understand how valuable this role is, these this position is,
21:15and so they want to grab them in that late fifth to sixth round because they know teams turn out better if they're
21:20taking these quarterbacks. If that happens to you, I think you just got to wait. You know, I like uh I like Dak
21:25this season. I like, you know, Stafford and Perie and Goff, but I think my goal would be to wait until golf. So, I would
21:32not take a quarterback in this general range. Now, um price is a value. Uh he's also value based on my projections. And
21:40what do we say all the time? If I am low on a player, but they end up top in the rankings, take them honestly because it
21:47means if I'm wrong, it's probably an amazing pick for you. It's why I don't include mustdraft or um I don't include
21:55mustdraft or the fade list in the rankings. People have asked that sometimes. It's just because people end up with worse teams honestly when I do
22:02it because they see must draft and they'd reach a round or two for them and I'm like okay well number one the
22:06rankings of the rankings like if they're if they're must draft but there's still you know three wide receivers spots back I'd still take those receivers over that
22:13player. Uh, so you mostly kind of draft positionally based on the rankings, but then also people do that reach, but then
22:18they'll also fade a guy like Price, you know, is a player I kind of avoid this season. But that's baked in. It's baked
22:24into the projection that, you know, I am uh a little bit skeptical that he can be, you know, this is high in pass
22:30catcher, but in the late sixth round, early seventh round, well, right now he's high ranked. I'd still take him over Pard and Stevenson and Rico and
22:37Harvey. So, he becomes a really good value here. Um, so I don't want to put fade on here because then people like,
22:42"Oh, guess I won't take him." Well, if I'm wrong on price, it's probably not that he's worse than I'm projecting because I'm lower than the field. It's
22:49probably that he actually sees more receiving work than I'm expecting. Has more of a role. In which case, if you're getting him at a lower value, well, now
22:55he's an exceptional pick. So, Price definitely an option for us. Uh, Christian Watson, great pick. Parker Washington, great pick. Um, data right
23:03now telling us it's again, it's still pretty even. It does like quarterback here, but we're not going to go quarterback. Uh, but it's very close
23:09between running back and receiver. Makes sense. We've built them evenly. Um, that's actually a very difficult decision. And then tight end, obviously,
23:17we're not doing that. Um, the math tells us still go with price. Uh, Watson, again, the upside there is awesome.
23:25Parker, the upside there is awesome.
23:27We're not Well, okay, we might actually.
23:28I thought we had the long term. Um, if you look at these two teams, it's actually there's nothing telling us here. So, two running backs, two
23:35receivers for both of them. So, each of them could lean that way. I would probably, if this were me, take Price
23:41and know that, you know, I want Christian Watson, I want Parker Washington. It's a better chance that um one of those two is available to us
23:51through the after these next four picks than it is Price is. Price is probably much more likely to get drafted by
23:56someone. Uh so take Price, hope we get one of those two, and then that's a great start to our draft. So let's take
24:02him and let's watch neither of them come off the board. Very interesting. So, uh, we take Price, uh, Dak goes Pard and
24:12Stevenson off the board and Quinton Johnston gone. So, we can choose between Christian Watson and Parker Parker Washington. Um, I do have Christian
24:20Watson right now over Parker Washington.
24:22It's very close. I really like Parker Washington. He is a mustdraft player for me this season. Um, I might move him
24:32over Christian Watson. I don't know.
24:34It's it's a very difficult decision. I still think I'm probably taking Christian Watson. And again, this is one where if I had the mustra player listed,
24:43everyone would take it differently, but right now I do still have Watson over Parker in the rankings just because I mean Watson's going to be out there so
24:51much. Um this is a team that is projected to throw it more than than they had before. They're not going to
24:56rotate, so we know they're going to be um keeping their their general wide receivers. Uh and Watson's not the slot receiver like Jane Reed is. So Reed
25:03still has that risk of them, you know, when they go into 12 personnel, they go into one or two R super sets, he's not
25:07going to be playing. Uh Watson took a huge step forward last season. I've been down on Christian Watson and yet still
25:14being down on him comes in as that top player in the projections. Those are the players you want to be drafting. So, uh
25:21I think I'll take Christian Watson, but if you wanted to go Parker Washington there, that's fine. But yeah, last season took a huge step forward on like
25:27a per route basis. It's just can he stay healthy? But I'm much more willing to take that risk in a reddraft league
25:33versus underdog. On underdog, if he can't stay healthy and I'm losing all those points in round seven because I'm taking the zero every week. Uh that's
25:40tough. In reaff, right? I'm not even actually starting him right now. Um like if we looked at like the week one
25:47lineup, I don't know what the week one projections will be, but you don't take the zero. If he misses a week, you put
25:52someone else in there. And I think we're good enough at drafting later in drafts to where we can draft a really good team
25:58later on. and so we can take more risk early. So I think things are working out really well. Tet Luther and Christian
26:04Watson's a great wide receiver trio. We didn't spend too much draft capital at it. We still have McAffrey, Jeremiah Love, and Jerry Price. And then we've
26:10got Brock Bowers. A huge positional advantage for us. One thing I do want to mention here is the difference in format. So 12 team I think just gives us
26:17the most even structure. You're not necessarily leaning towards any one position because of uh league size or anything. as you shrink
26:28Bowers and McBride and Lovelin become more valuable and especially as you get into an 18 league. I really would want to be drafting one of those three,
26:35everyone's going to have just sick running backs and receivers no matter what you did. Even if you took like, you know, Bowers and Josh Allen in an 18
26:45league, you're still going to have amazing running backs and receivers. And so to create that positional advantage, it becomes a lot more difficult. Um, but
26:52there's still a streaming tier. So, especially at like the 10m position, well, you're still going to have teams that have Ken Kade and Ferguson likely
26:58and they're drafting those guys and starting them. It's almost the same.
27:02We're going to go be like you're you're streaming value isn't going to change much. Eight vers 12. Um, so you're you're looking at that and you're saying
27:09like, how do I create an advantage because everyone's great at running back and receiver. Well, if you have Bowers and you're going up against streaming
27:14tight ends, that's a huge gap that you might just not be able to make up. Even if you went super running back heavy,
27:19even teams that weighted at running back, they're going to draft really good running backs as well. Obviously, you'll have an advantage if you get like, you
27:25know, the Bejons and McAffries and the uh Gibbs of the world, but you can't always um end up with one of them, and
27:33you still need to start two. And obviously, you're taking them in round one anyways. Okay, so team's doing really well right now. Again, it's even.
27:41Don't take tight end. Uh quarterback is even, but we're just going to wait on that position. So, we're still going to
27:45be attacking running back and receiver at this turn. Um, Brooks, awesome pick here. Um, I don't it doesn't even really show up
27:55wide receiver. So, you could definitely go after Jaden Reed, um, Addison, Godwin, Worthy, Golden Meers. It's kind of a big bucket there that they all feel
28:06the same to me. Similar chances of breaking out and really doing a lot this season. So, I don't know uh if I would
28:13go with any of them at this spot. I think you just look at running back and you're like, well, you know, after we
28:17get through Brooks here, like there's actually a relatively decent drop off. I mean, Manunga is fine. Corm's fine, but you know, definitely a big difference
28:26these running backs going later as opposed to the ceiling of Jonathan Brooks. So, I would definitely just say lock in Jonathan Brooks. I know we take
28:32Brooks and T McMillan. I think that's fine to do. You're fine double dipping if it's like later on. It's around four
28:38pick and around eight pick. I'm not taking two players on the same team like in the first four rounds. I'm not taking
28:44two wide receivers or two running backs in the same team this early. But a running back and a receiver on a team
28:50that doesn't have, you know, that much depth, you know, it's really only Coker and Tet for pass catching there. Um, they're not going to utilize the tight
28:56end position that heavily and it's, you know, going to be a mixture between Brooks and Chuba. But if Brooks breaks out and he has a ceiling we want, even
29:03in weeks that they're not performing that well and I mean he's a second bench player. even weeks they're not performing that well like Brooks and and
29:08Tet will be fine to have because the touches will be there and you didn't spend too much to get it. All right. Uh
29:14as we said, you know, running back was one or white was one big tier. None of them go. So we see White, Dobbins,
29:20Chuba, and Dallas Goddard come off the board. We're at the 9003 right now. Pick 99.
29:26I think it would be fine to go running back again and basically finish the position off. Data says fine to go
29:32running back and receiver, better to go receiver.
29:34But honestly, if we had McAffrey, Jeremiah Love, Price, Brooks, and like I might actually lean Cororum in this
29:45build just saying um grab someone uh more stable, I guess, for that last one and say I'm okay forgoing this position
29:55entirely for the rest of the draft. Um I suppose we do have Katon that we still want to be drafting a ton. So that
30:02actually should be in the back of our mind that well I want Keat and so I don't really want to close off the
30:05position right now. See let's actually wait.
30:11Yeah. Yeah. Let's wait the position quarterback. Uh Dart is still a great pick, but I think the value is still waiting. So okay, let's go. Let's go top
30:18wide receiver. Let's take Reed. Let's do that. Yeah, because I mean Katon could still obviously get drafted. Um but I want that opportunity to be taking him
30:26later on. Okay, pull up the draft board here. Um, Katon is still there. So, we go Gainwell,
30:37Mason, Cororum, Manungi, JCM, and Aaron Jones. And we see Godwin, Higgins, uh, Dobs, Addison, Golden, and Conception.
30:46And then also, uh, we see some quarterbacks gone as well, but that's totally fine for us. We're again not going to take quarterback because this
30:52is a short term. We've got a Dak and a Daniels team. They're probably not going to both take a second uh quarterback. Um
30:59running back Rodriguez and Katon Mitchell are available to us. I think you can probably risk it and take Katon in round 11.
31:07Um wide receiver.
31:11I do feel like Worthy maybe has a better ceiling. If we're not pumped about Rice this season, you know, unless Cyrus
31:17Allen really does have that breakout, you know, if they're going to scheme a lot of usage to Worthy and he can stay
31:22healthy this season, he's got a ceiling on this team. Um, part of me though doesn't know, should I be moving diggs up more? like they're
31:33going to run a ton of two wide receiver sets and they like they have Chig, but they don't have pass catching running
31:38backs besides um White, but even White, I don't know how much he's really going to be on the field and they're not going
31:43to throw running backs that often. So, if they're not throwing running backs that often, and it's really just McLuren, Diggs, and Che and you've got a
31:52great quarterback and Jaden Daniels, like there's a ton of upside for Stfane Diggs this season. So, if we're in a reddraft league and I'm trying to hit on
32:01one of those players that actually makes the different given their difference given their AP, I think it's worthy.
32:06It's probably not Meyers. It's probably not Wandelle. It's probably not Coker, especially drafting him again on the same team. It's probably not Shahed and
32:14Shakir. Like, we we know these guys are good and they're going to have roles, but they're not going to be one of the
32:1815 players that matters. Diggs maybe has that chance. Does he probably need an injury? Maybe. But like even if he doesn't have that injury, if he's the
32:28two there and he's, you know, able to consistently be, you know, a backend two or a flex option for us, well, that is
32:35going to be something that's very beneficial to our team. So might lean Diggs. And so if we want to draft Diggs
32:42and we want to draft Katon as our two players here, um, this team is not going running back. And this team might lean
32:50less for it. So why don't we take because this team have two wide receivers. They're going to take wide receiver. They might double dip wide
32:54receiver. So, why don't we go diggs?
32:57And this is one where so this late we're in round 10. 10 on uh like you can you can kind of jump around in the rankings.
33:05You can jump around by ADP. Don't worry as much about ADP. Just use it as a as a feature like I just did. Say, okay,
33:10who's likely to go? Don't be like, well, I can't reach. You can reach however much you want in round 10. You don't
33:17need to. If someone has an ADP of 150, you might not need to. You can kind of push it back. Digs is one where I think
33:23the ADP is going to continue to rise.
33:24So, he'll go earlier than that ADP. Um, but use it like I just did and say like, okay, I don't think Katon's going to go
33:32here. I can kind of forego it. Um, take Katon. I do think one of the computer teams will take Katon in this next
33:38round. So, I would have to take him now.
33:39In your hometown league, you might not need to, but some of these computers have uh like the FFA rankings kind of
33:44built into their back end. Okay. Um, we kind of I maybe I should have considered quarterback a little bit more. Um, this
33:49team actually does take off at that turn, but we also see Bonx, Kyler, and Baker come off the board. We're in a
33:56range where I probably want a double dip quarterback now. So, uh, we get Katon.
34:00We're good at running back. McCaffrey, Love, Price, Brooks, and Katon. I think we're fine at wide receiver. Ted, Burton, uh, Christian Watson, Jaden
34:08Reed, and Diggs. Maybe you could go for another one. Uh, if you wanted to go after, uh, Shahed, the upside of Travis
34:14Hunter, Stribbling, uh, Fenoi, maybe. I think that's absolutely fine to do. I think because we're gonna take um like one of Love, Shuck, Malik here, just
34:24take two. This is a range where people love breakouts. So, they love uh the opportunity for Love to be in more pass
34:29having happy offense. Uh they love Shuck for, you know, they could run the most plays in the league. Got, you know,
34:34Olive and Jaden. Um uh I can't think of his name right now. Tyson. Um Tyson looks like he's just like awesome.
34:46Like you look at Tyson's like routes run right now in camp and he is just shredding people. So um it's a little
34:53bit exciting if he can have almost two Olaf out there uh for Jordan Tyson. Like the upside there mixed with a good
35:01ground game mixed with you know being in a dome mixed with some mobility. It's like people are excited about that.
35:06They're excited that you know Malik Willis could run for thousand yards. But all those guys could bust. Literally all of them could be like week four we're
35:12like we're not starting them. We're not even streaming them in some good matchups. And so taking two makes a lot of sense. Um Jane Dane, wow, Daniel
35:21Jones is also a good option for us in this general spot uh if we want to double dip with him. But I just think it
35:26makes the most sense to use that last bench spot to take two shots at quarterbacks that have breakout potential, but we don't necessarily know
35:32if any of them are going to like actually be good this season. So I'll take Jeremiah Love. Uh and then um let's
35:40see between Malik and Shuck.
35:44Um, I mean, because I have it at one value difference. I guess I'll just go with Malik Willis. Um, I don't know
35:54early season schedule like how that kind of lines up. Uh, but I guess between the two of them if one had a true breakout,
36:00Malik is probably more likely to like exit week one with like, you know, 200 passing yards, a passing touchdown, and like 80 rushing yards and a rushing
36:08touchdown and be someone we're like, "Okay, starting him every week." uh Shuck is less likely to do something like that where it's guaranteed. So,
36:14we'll take Malik uh with that spot. But again, just doubled up on who you kind of like. Okay. And then we will go I
36:20actually did update the uh defense rankings and the kicker rankings recently, so they're a little bit better now. Uh and they do take early season
36:27into account. I will say uh Patriots here come in top. Worst possible matchup you can have in week one. Since we're
36:32streaming, we might lean away from that.
36:34Um Bills of a terrible matchup. All right, looks like decent start for Baltimore. Um, I feel like I need to add
36:41in the actual teams that they're playing there. Um, Patriots going to have a good defense, but you know, you don't like
36:46that they have the worst possible start that you can have. So, why don't we just take Baltimore? I don't even know who it
36:52is in week one. Oh, actually, Patriots, it is Seattle, which might not be horrible. Um, but I think it's Seattle in Seattle, so that's
37:00tough. Uh, but yeah, have have some defenses in mind kind of kind of going into it. Um, if you were drafting right
37:06now, you could genuinely not even take defense or kicker and be like, "Okay, give me Shahed and dribbling at that pick. I'm just going to draft uh
37:12pretending that, you know, we are in the late uh late end of draft season and that this is the team that we'd be
37:18drafting." Okay. Uh 73rd percentile draft, B third best in the league here.
37:24Let's pull up the draft board. I think it was solid. Um not like perfect, but I think from an early first round pick,
37:30again, I think we touched on strategy pretty well. I want two running backs in three. I want Brock Bowers or Malik
37:36Neighbors at this kind of uh second round pick if I'm not going to get one of these top end running backs. It can
37:42happen that you're forced to draft a wide receiver instead in that spot. But if you if that happens, it means that
37:46like Neighbors um or Neighbors is there or Nico is there or Drake London is there, AJ Brown is there, in which case
37:52I'm fine going with them. And at that point, I'd want to take a running back in round three. We got two running Max
37:57and three. Figure out what you want to do with that other one with whether it's tight end or wide receiver. I I think I
38:02like what the team to turn out with Bowers for that upside. Attack wide receiving rounds. It doesn't mean you have to take all wide receivers, but
38:08attack wide receiver. Mix in some running backs in six or seven. Try and get a quarterback. We couldn't do it in
38:15this one, which means we're probably double dipping. I would have liked Goff.
38:19Um we just miss him in round 11. Um but I would have liked Goff. Um but getting like a love Malik Willis is totally fine
38:27to do. And then just kind of evenly build the team beyond that. If you take Bowowers or Lovelin, you do not need a
38:32backup tight end. That is how I would approach an early first round pick this season. And I think you can go McAffrey
38:40at this spot. Had we taken Jamar Chase, um honestly, we probably would have gone Chase then Achan and then Love, which
38:48would also be a totally fine start to make, we would not have taken Brock Bowers if we took Jamar Chase. We would
38:54have had to probably attack wide receiver a little bit more heavily in these middle rounds. Uh, and then, you know, I don't know how the rest would
39:00have shaken out, but it would be fine to do. So, if you want to go chase u achan love, that's fine. I just I don't know.
39:07I feel like maybe I would end up just going with McCaffrey from a strategy standpoint. It unlocks the opportunity drafts. It doesn't force us into an
39:14achan that we just don't feel that comfortable with this season. Uh, but that's why you do the mocks. You got to
39:19figure out what you like. Do a ton of mocks from the 103. Uh, you can do them for free on my website. That's what we
39:24just drafted on the fantasy footballadvice.com.
39:27Test things out, see what you like and don't like, and go into that draft knowing what you're going to do because
39:31Gibbs is gonna go and then Bejon is gonna go. You're not going to get one of them and one of three. So, that'll do it
39:36for this one. Thank you all for watching. If you're still here, please leave a like. Please subscribe to the channel if you are new here. But I'll
39:41catch you all on the Wednesday
