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10 Players Everyone Will Wish They Drafted

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

27 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 28, 2026
Published
Fri, August 28, 2026
24
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Adonai MitchellBrian RobinsonChris RodriguezDenzel BostonEmmett JohnsonJ.K. DobbinsJacoby BrissettJaylen WrightJonah ColemanJordan AddisonJordan MasonKayshon BoutteKeaton MitchellMarShawn Lloyd
Player analysis

Player insights

24

Adonai Mitchell

NegativeSleeper25:45

Adonai Mitchell is listed as a secondary-tier option for deeper league benches (16-team leagues with significant bench spots). The source notes this second list represents lower ceiling and lower confidence bets, but all players have breakout potential that will be evident by week one or two, allowing early-season evaluation before committing to holding or cutting.

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Brian Robinson

PositiveValue20:28

Handcuff for Bijan Robinson; recommended as late-round pick if Bijan Robinson was drafted. Provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Bijan locks in starting value for entire season if Robinson is handcuffed.

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Chris Rodriguez

PositiveValue12:11

Strong value play in double-digit rounds despite full PPR format concerns. Rodriguez is very likely the goal-line back, has a strong chance to get more early-down work than Bashaun Tuit, and is getting more pass-blocking snaps with LeQuint Allen injured. He has a history with coach Liam Cohen, who brought him in and trusts him as a player. The source compares him favorably to Rhamondre Stevenson—a reliable back who gets the yards and follows scheme—versus Anthony Henderson, who is explosive but has vision issues and poor pass protection. Rodriguez will play more than people expect and offers strong value as a rotational RB2 option in double-digit rounds; in full PPR he may be slightly undervalued since he's being used in passing-down snaps despite limited career receptions.

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Denzel Boston

NegativeRole3:08

Top two wide receiver on Cleveland Browns alongside Casey Concepcion, but operates as outside X receiver running hard routes that require earning every touch; does not receive layup routes or screen passes like Concepcion. Positioned as the harder-working outside route runner in contrast to Concepcion's easier-access role, limiting his floor and consistency.

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Emmett Johnson

NegativeSleeper25:45

Emmett Johnson is listed as a secondary-tier option for deeper league benches (16-team leagues with significant bench spots). The source notes this second list represents lower ceiling and lower confidence bets, but all players have breakout potential that will be evident by week one or two, allowing early-season evaluation before committing to holding or cutting.

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J.K. Dobbins

NegativeInjury16:57

Starter for Broncos backfield to begin season but carries significant injury risk. Historically suffers major injury every year of his career and misses significant time; injury likely to occur again this season, opening opportunity for Keaton Coleman. The Broncos' playoff loss to Patriots likely would have been prevented if Dobbins remained healthy, underscoring his importance and fragility.

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Jacoby Brissett

NegativeSleeper25:45

Jacoby Brissett is listed as a secondary-tier option for deeper league benches (16-team leagues with significant bench spots). The source notes this second list represents lower ceiling and lower confidence bets, but all players have breakout potential that will be evident by week one or two, allowing early-season evaluation before committing to holding or cutting.

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Jaylen Wright

PositiveValue20:28

Recommended as late-round handcuff for De'Von Achane; provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Achane locks in starting value for the entire season if Wright is handcuffed.

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Jonah Coleman

PositiveValue16:53

Late-round RB2 with significant upside due to Broncos' top-ranked offensive line and murky backfield situation. Expected to become lead back in second half of season through injury or performance; highly efficient runner with explosive potential who will be starting at running back two if he gets 10 touches per week. Available very late in drafts despite upside; likely to see limited early-season work but positioned for a major role once opportunity opens.

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Jordan Addison

PositiveValue5:46

Being drafted at his floor despite strong historical production (WR27 and WR24 in adjusted points per game in his first two seasons). Benefits from Minnesota's shift to heavy two-tight-end sets that increase target efficiency by removing low-volume slot receivers. Kevin O'Connell's elite offensive system positions Addison as a flex play immediately with massive contingent upside: any week Justin Jefferson misses, Addison projects as a top-15 WR.

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Jordan Mason

PositiveValue8:06

Benefits from Minnesota's shift to heavy two-tight-end sets and fullback usage that improve run-blocking efficiency. Posted 4.8 yards per carry last season despite poor offensive environment, with 5.1 career yards per carry showing consistent chain-moving ability. Positive camp reports support fit in offense designed to lean on running backs with elite defense and safe passing attack.

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Kayshon Boutte

NegativeSleeper25:45

Kayshon Boutte is listed as a secondary-tier option for deeper league benches (16-team leagues with significant bench spots). The source notes this second list represents lower ceiling and lower confidence bets, but all players have breakout potential that will be evident by week one or two, allowing early-season evaluation before committing to holding or cutting.

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Keaton Mitchell

NegativeBreakout15:05

Pure upside play available very late in drafts with significant league-winner potential if healthy. The source projects he'll get 8–10 highly efficient touches per week in the Rams' efficient offense. The source cites De'Andre Achane's 2023 performance (third in adjusted points per game on 11.9 touches per game in Mike McDaniel's offense) to show that 10 efficient touches can support RB2 production. Mitchell is lining up in the slot and getting downfield looks in preseason—rare for running backs—which combined with his explosive rushing ability and the Rams' high-scoring offense suggests significant upside. Key risk is monitoring his injury status, but the role and opportunity are elite for his ADP.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveValue20:28

Recommended as late-round handcuff for Jamaal Williams; provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Williams locks in starting value for the entire season if Lloyd is handcuffed.

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Mike Evans

NegativeInjury4:16

Already struggling to stay healthy this season with a meaningful chance he misses a chunk of time. Health concerns create opportunity for De'Jon Shipp Ling as the clear WR2 on San Francisco's offense.

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Najee Harris

NegativeSleeper25:45

Najee Harris is listed as a secondary-tier option for deeper league benches (16-team leagues with significant bench spots). The source notes this second list represents lower ceiling and lower confidence bets, but all players have breakout potential that will be evident by week one or two, allowing early-season evaluation before committing to holding or cutting.

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Raheem Mostert

PositiveValue20:28

Handcuff for James Cook; recommended as late-round pick if James Cook was drafted. Provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Cook locks in starting value for entire season if Mostert is handcuffed.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeRole16:57

Underperformed on early downs in 2024 despite accumulating yards, receptions, and touchdowns due to lack of competition. Broncos' offense took a step back when he was forced into lead role after Dobbins' injury. Broncos addressed this by prioritizing Dobbins and drafting Keaton Coleman—a clear signal they did not like what they saw from Harvey. Expected to shift to more specialized role in receiving game and red zone rather than lead back duties.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeDepth Chart20:33

Used as example of unlikely dual-injury scenario in handcuff strategy discussion; source notes that both Saquon and Tank Bigsby tearing ACL simultaneously is very unlikely, supporting the thesis that handcuffing one of six identified elite backup situations provides season-long roster security.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveValue10:01

Wide receiver with four consecutive 100+ reception seasons pre-ACL injury; returned with 85 receptions on limited snap share last season. Ranked eighth in first downs per route run (predictive metric for following season) with strong underlying route success rates. Expected to play mostly slot this season with limited snap share increase; late ADP makes him strong value for WR2/flex rotation despite age and injury history. Poor offensive line actually benefits Diggs' shallow-route role and likely increases target share.

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Tank Bigsby

PositiveValue20:28

Recommended as late-round handcuff for Saquon Barkley; provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Saquon locks in starting value for the entire season if Bigsby is handcuffed. The source notes that both Saquon and Tank Bigsby tearing an ACL simultaneously is very unlikely, supporting the thesis that handcuffing one of six identified elite backup situations provides season-long roster security.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveSleeper23:08

Projected as Rams' #3 pass catcher; league winner if Puka Nacua or Davante Adams miss time, and both have injury histories suggesting 3–4 weeks minimum of top-seven tight end production. Featured in red zone and intermediate areas in 11-on-11 training camp drills. If he maintains consistent role with ~4 receptions and red-zone work on a potential NFL touchdown-leading team, he will shatter ADP as sixth or seventh tight end; projected as top-10 tight end this season if role matches training camp performance.

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Trey Sermon

PositiveValue21:44

ADP outside top 200 despite projected 90%+ snap share and role as Dolphins' best run-blocking wide receiver in Mike McDaniel's efficient run-game scheme. Second-round pick last year with development concerns, but offseason reports suggest improvement. Can be drafted in final round as last player or as alternative to late-round tight ends; people are very much undervaluing him outside the top 200.

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Tyler Allgeier

PositiveValue20:28

Recommended as late-round handcuff for Kendre Miller; provides high-confidence backup value with significant touch upside if starter goes down. Spending a round one or two pick on Miller locks in starting value for the entire season if Allgeier is handcuffed.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

260
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. Today we have a really important one. Every year my sister calls me right before her draft
0:06and asks for a short list of players to draft to her bench. She just wants to know in a perfect world who should be on
0:13her bench because it can be really tough to choose exactly who you want in those later rounds. So, I figured I'd make a
0:20video about that this season. Um obviously some of you play in three wide receiver leagues, half verse full PPR, some standard. Don't want to be one of
0:27those people. Uh tight end premium, superflex. The double-digit rounds do look a little bit different to everyone.
0:34But at the end of the day, none of that really matters that much. I think people get a little too um um
0:41focused on the scoring format without realizing like realistically, if you truly hit on a player that vastly out per performs their ADP in half PPR,
0:53they're going to be a good pick in every single fantasy format. All we're trying to do with these late picks is hit on
0:59someone who becomes really valuable in fantasy and they're going to be a good pick in all formats. So, today I am
1:05presenting an ordered list of exactly who I want on my bench in a hometown league. The prerequisite for this video is that their composite ADP is round
1:16nine or later. You can see all ADPs in the major platforms for free on my website, the fantasyfootballadvice.com.
1:23But average ADP for every single one of these players is round nine or later.
1:27That's sort of a random cutoff, but I kind of figured for the vast majority of leagues, um mostly round nine is a bench player.
1:35Right? Like no matter how you started, no matter what your settings are, round nine on probably going to be a bench
1:39player for all of you. Also, one more thing before we start, you do still need to take ADP into account a little bit.
1:45If like the third or fourth player on my list has an ADP on your platform of like 150, 160th overall and you're sitting
1:53there at 110, you don't need to draft them next on this list. You're allowed to skip ahead to like the sixth or the
1:59seventh player on the list and then go back to player four or five. You know, you're allowed to jump around a little
2:06bit. These are just, you know, I would ideally like to get my entire bench full of these players. I'd ideally like to
2:11get as many as possible and if you go in order with completely disregarding ADP, you might not be able to get as many as
2:19uh you could if you kind of like took ADP more into account. All right. With all that being said, here's the list.
2:25Number one, Casey Concepcion. Uh he is yes on the Cleveland Browns, but he's an amazing talent. He's going to be a
2:33featured weapon on this offense. Going to get end arounds, screen passes. He's going to run routes on all three levels.
2:39That means he's going to get those layup routes across the field. He's going to get intermediate routes to have a very
2:44high success rate and um a lot of upside if they hit. And then the deep routes as well. He's still going to be running
2:49routes deep downfield for those explosives as well. Um you have the trailing game script, right? Cleveland's bad, yes, but they're also going to have
2:56to have a high pass rate uh because not necessarily pass rate over expectation, but the expectation is going to be very,
3:02very high cuz when you're losing by two touchdowns, you're going to have to throw the ball more than run it. Uh and
3:07I guess comparing these two, right? You got him, you got Denzel Boston, uh you've got like Jerry Jeudy. Boston and Concepcion
3:14are going to be those top two wide receivers this season. They're going with a very young team. They're not going to tank right out of the gates,
3:19but realistically, they want to get their young players involved this season and they're just such different wide receivers. Boston's running those really
3:25hard outside routes as that X wide receiver. He's not getting any layup routes. He's not getting screen passes.
3:31He is going to have to earn everything on the outside. Concepcion is not going to have to earn everything. There's going to be layup routes as part of his
3:39profile. And so even against tough teams, even in, you know, matchups where it doesn't fully favor him, he's going to get some free touches every single
3:47week and that is great. He is absolutely uh someone that can finish the wide receiver two. I would say quarterback play, offensive system probably holds
3:54him back from being a wide receiver one, but in double-digit rounds, you're going to take him as you know, a potential
4:00wide receiver two in fantasy. He's being drafted well outside that. Number two, Shipp Ling, De'Jon Shipp Ling. Um not going to be as featured as
4:09Concepcion because of course they have much better playmakers around him. They have George Kittle. They have Christian McCaffrey. They have Mike Evans. These
4:17are players that Cleveland Browns simply don't have. But San Fran's also probably going to be the most efficient offense in the NFL. At worst, they'll be like
4:26the second or the third most efficient offense. You love that. Also, Mike Evans is awesome, but he's already very much struggling to stay healthy this season.
4:36Um there's a chance that Mike Evans misses a chunk of time this year. We don't want it to happen. I still like drafting Mike
4:43Evans, but there's a chance that he misses time. And right now, it already seems like Shipp Ling is that pretty clear number two wide receiver on this
4:49team, which is absolutely wild. Uh he is just a really high-end talent. I've said that he's basically like a much more
4:57athletic Jauan Jennings. Um the run blocking's going to keep him on the field as well. Even if you thought like maybe he wasn't fully developed as a
5:04route runner, look at who they have in the wide receiver room. It's not that good. And especially if Evans misses time, my goodness, he has to be on the
5:10field. But even with Evans on the field, Shipp Ling's going to be out there a ton because he can run block. And Shanahan
5:16wants his players to be really good at run blocking because that's a huge component of this offense. It's just like he's going to be out there a ton in
5:23a Shanahan offense as clearly a talented player. The efficiency's going to be through the roof, and you're getting him relatively late in drafts. Kind of feels
5:31like even with the ADPs on Concepcion and Shipp Ling both rising a lot recently, they're still very much being drafted at their floor. They both have a
5:41shot of being wide receiver twos in fantasy this season, and you're drafting them again well outside that range.
5:46Number three, Jordan Addison. Um Minnesota is going to run a lot more heavy sets this year. I think that's something people overlook a lot. Heavy
5:55sets basically being, you know, more than just one tight end on the field, two or three tight ends. Obviously, when they go to three tight end sets, they're
6:01going to have Jefferson, so you're not going to get those snaps for Addison, but most teams are not going to run
6:05three tight end sets very often. It's more when teams are shifting more heavy, it means two. So, they're going to have
6:11two receivers, two tight ends, and the one running back. That's good for the running back that we'll talk about in a
6:16second, but it's also good for the receivers.
6:19Some offenses have multiple pass-catching tight ends. Not Minnesota.
6:24Their backup tight ends are strictly run-blocking, and so when they put that extra tight end onto the field, you're basically taking a slot wide receiver
6:31off the field, replacing it with a tight end that's going to have like a 5% target share, and all of a sudden your
6:37targets per route, run yards per run, it all increases. So, every snap becomes more efficient. So, that's great for Addison. And then people again forget
6:45how good of a play-caller and an offensive creator that Kevin O'Connell is because of the one bad year. You look at all the quarterbacks who have played
6:54under Kevin O'Connell, they've all been fantastic except for J.J. McCarthy. He runs a great offense. I expect it to be a great offense under Kyler this season.
7:02And we look at, you know, first 2 years of Addison's career, wide receiver 27 and 24 in adjusted points per game, and
7:09then they tank last year. He goes way down because the offense was so bad, and I think people are just clinging onto
7:14that last outcome a little bit too much.
7:17It feels like again a floor play. And whenever you look at someone, you do the analysis, you see what their ADP is, and you're like, "They're being
7:25drafted pretty much at their floor." Of course, anyone could like tear their ACL or something, and their floor is zero, but assuming health, do we really think
7:34that Addison is not going to return like 10th or 11th round value by ADP? Of course, he is. Like, he's going to be
7:41probably a flex play for you right out of the gates, and that's really good value to be getting as your fourth,
7:48maybe fifth wide receiver in a draft.
7:50Very, very, very much draft at his floor with huge contingent upside. This is not a player who it's like drafted at his
7:57floor, but probably not going to do very much. Any weeks that Justin Jefferson misses, we're going to be projecting Jordan Addison as a top 15 wide
8:06receiver. Not really something you can say about a lot of other wide receivers in this range. Uh next up, alluded to
8:11this, Jordan Mason. So, same ideas as Addison. If this offense runs more two tight end sets, heavy sets, that is a benefit for the running
8:21back. You're getting more players onto the field that are very good at run blocking.
8:26They're also going to use a fullback a lot as well. That's going to help his efficiency, which doesn't even need that
8:31much help. He was at 4.8 yd per carry last season. I mean, remember back to how awful this offense was for most of
8:38the year. You would have expected like 4.3, 4.4. No, 4.8 yd per carry on a player who's not ripping off random, you
8:46know, two runs of like 90 yd, and everything else is 1 yd, right?
8:51Consistently moving the chains last season, that is what they want in Minnesota. Um really good reports all off season. I mean,
9:00not only for like the offense looking a little bit better, but for Mason, I mean, he's looked really good in camp.
9:05He's looked really good this off season.
9:07It's also just a great like environment for him, right? You've got that elite defense. You've got a team that I don't want to say doesn't trust the
9:16quarterback, but like, you know that they want to lean on the running backs and make it an efficient offense. They want to go They don't want to go out
9:21there and have Kyler Murray drop back 50 times. That is not what the offense wants to be. They want to have a really
9:26strong defense, have really safe offense, hit on the big plays, hit on the passing attack to Addison, to Justin Jefferson, but play it safe, don't cause
9:35turnovers, and run the football with Jordan Mason. And that's what they're going to do this season. 5.1 career yards per carry. Again, very positive
9:43reports out of camp. Uh he was brought in last season to be that goal line back, that early down runner, that guy
9:48that, you know, just moves the chains late in the games to secure wins. They just couldn't do it as much because the
9:54offense was so bad. The offense is much better this year. That's going to be a huge positive for him. Number five, uh
10:01Stefon Diggs. Four consecutive years of over 100 receptions before tearing his ACL two years ago. Then he comes back from the torn ACL at a relatively
10:12advanced age, has 85 receptions on a limited snap share last season. That is why I'm confident Stefon Diggs this year. I know that he's older. I know
10:22that he had the torn ACL, but Terry McLaurin has never had a year with 85 receptions. Diggs had four straight with
10:29100. Tears his ACL, comes back, instantly 85 receptions on limited snaps last season. And you look at the underlying metrics, eighth in first
10:39downs per route run. That's a very, very predictive metric for the following season. The underlying route success rates were really strong, as per Matt
10:47Harmon over at Reception Perception. And so, you know, we've got a player who was really good on a per route basis, just
10:53didn't run a ton of routes last season.
10:54And it's not like he's going to go out there and have a 90% snap share, right?
10:58I don't even 100% know if he's going to play in all two wide receiver sets.
11:02He'll be out there in some two wide receiver sets. I think he's mostly going to play in the slot this season. But for
11:07how late he goes, and for how good of a wide receiver he still is, I think there's a lot of upside here to
11:13be another guy who could be consistently used at that wide receiver two spot or definitely in the flex spot for those of
11:18you in three wide receiver leagues. I think he's going to be a slam dunk at that wide receiver three spot. Um
11:23plus the offensive line, honestly, like the offensive line might hold this offense back. They have been really, really bad in camp. But that's a fine
11:29thing for Stefon Diggs. Not for Terry McLaurin, right? needs those intermediate and deep routes. He needs time for the play to develop and to get
11:37him the ball downfield. Stefon Diggs is going to be running most of his routes in the very shallow and then sometimes
11:42intermediate areas of the field. And so, if the offensive line is a problem, we're not going to see that be an issue
11:47for Diggs. We're going to see it increase his target share probably because he's going to just be dominating the routes in that shallow area of the
11:53field. And I still don't buy the fact that um they're all of a sudden going to dump off to running backs at a higher
11:58rate. I really think Stefon Diggs is going to have a very consistent, very solid target share, is going to look better than people think, and is a
12:04really strong pick on your bench that you will be able to rotate into wide receiver two and into the flex spot when
12:09you need him this season.
12:11Number six, Chris Rodriguez. Um if you wanted to call one player maybe a little bit worse in one format, it would be
12:19Chris Rodriguez in full PPR. But, I think that might even be a little bit overblown. Sure, he hasn't had a lot of
12:24receptions in his career, but everyone wanted to crown uh Bashaun Tuit in this like feature back once we see the injury to LeQuint Allen, which
12:33again, we don't even know or think is that long-term. He could be there uh pretty early in the season, even in week
12:38one, I think it's a possibility, LeQuint Allen. But, let's just say LeQuint Allen had that that injury and he's going to
12:44miss time. What did they do in camp, in joint practices, once that injury happened? They had Chris Rodriguez as the guy who was being used in those
12:52passing down snaps. Now, we went over how that's not really that huge of a benefit because LeQuint Allen basically just plays on pure passing down where
12:59they need the pass blocking, right? But, we talked about how, well, if they're only using it for pass blocking, yes, the target share will increase because
13:06sometimes you start pass blocking, you're now an outlet, and you get the dump off. But, if they want the pass blocking, it's probably going to be
13:13Chris Rodriguez over Bashaun Tuit. And that's what we've seen in camp. So, he's very likely the goal line back.
13:19There's a very strong chance that he gets more early down work than Bashaun Tuit. And now he's getting more pass blocking snaps with LeQuint Allen
13:27injured. And he's already got a history with Liam Cohen. That's why they brought him in cuz they already knew how he
13:32played, they knew how he ran, and they trusted him. So, Liam Cohen already likes him as a player.
13:37And then you have Liam Cohen making comments about Bashaun Tuten, you know, maybe not having the best vision, kind of needing to work on that timing on his
13:46his carries and following the blockers and seeing where the holes are going to develop kind of before they do.
13:51There's a lot here to say that in the double-digit rounds, Chris Rodriguez is going to have a lot of value this
13:56season. Another player that you might be able to rotate into running back, too, especially if you have injuries, you have bye weeks, and you're like, "Oh,
14:03no, I just need someone to get points."
14:05If Chris Rodriguez is the goal-line back on the Jaguars and is getting consistent early down looks, and is sometimes used on passing downs as well, this is a very
14:13strong value in the double-digit rounds of fantasy, and truly, I know Bashaun Tuten people are going to, you know, the truthers out there really going to hate
14:20when I say this. It feels very similar to Stevenson versus Henderson. Everyone wants Henderson to be the guy. He's explosive. He's fun. He can be used in
14:30the receiving game. But, his vision is not good, and he's not as good in pass protection as the reliable Stevenson.
14:37Stevenson will get the yards. He will not bust off a 90-yard touchdown, but he will get 5 yards when 4 yards was
14:43blocked. Henderson will get two or three yards a lot of time when only 4 yards is blocked for him. He will not get the
14:50full blocked yards. That's a problem.
14:52NFL coaches really need you to follow all of the scheme and get the yards, and that is what Chris Rodriguez will do.
14:57So, he's going to play a lot more than people are expecting, just like Stevenson is going to play a lot more
15:02than people are expecting, even though Henderson is there.
15:05Seventh player, Keaton Mitchell, uh pure upside play.
15:09So, understand that there's risk here, but also understand that he goes very late in drafts. Um another one where I mean, I talked about this earlier this
15:17week. We need to watch the injury for Keaton Mitchell. If it's an injury we need to be concerned about, obviously we
15:22need to drop him in the running game.
15:24But, that will also drop his ADP to where he can get him in the final round of your draft. But, yeah, I'm
15:28anticipating a highly efficient offense in LA. If he can stay healthy, it's a big if. But, if he can, I think he gets
15:37like eight to 10 highly efficient touches every week. People keep asking me. They're like, "Well, can I ever actually start him?" Like, if
15:44he's getting eight to 10 touches, will he be able to trust him in fantasy? Do you remember back in 2023 when Mostert
15:51and Achane were both top-five running backs over Mike McDaniel, and Achane was third in adjusted points per game on 11.9 touches per game. You don't need to
16:01have 15 to 18 touches in a Mike McDaniel offense at running back. You only need to be in that general like 10 range. If
16:09he can get 10 highly efficient touches every week, you will be starting that at running back two. And you're getting him
16:16way later. We look at the preseason.
16:18This dude's lining up in the slot. He's getting downfield looks. Running backs don't get downfield looks. Even the most prolific pass-catching running backs,
16:26you look at their air yards at the end of the season, and it's like negative or it's like 10 in total. Running backs who
16:32get downfield targets have crazy high upside in fantasy. If it's going to also come with highly efficient looks on the ground, it's going to come with
16:39touchdowns because he's an explosive player. It's a great run um just rushing offense in general, great offense in general for a lot of touchdowns. I just
16:47think it's a very low ADP for someone who could be an upside player at running back two each week if things go right.
16:53And if things don't go right, again, very, very late in drafts, he's available. Number eight, Jona Coleman.
17:00Uh Broncos have the number one offensive line in the NFL. That at a baseline, if you're ever looking for a running back
17:06late who's running behind a really, really good offensive line who has some level of unknown.
17:12It is a murky backfield. We've got a lot of running backs there. We don't 100% know who's getting all the touches. Uh
17:18he's running behind to start the year JK Dobbins who literally like every year of his career suffers a major injury misses
17:24a ton of time. Probably unfortunately, but probably going to happen again this season. Um Keaton looks much better than Harvey does on early downs. We saw last
17:34season Harvey had a shot, right? You see Dobbins go down. You have a huge chunk of time where RJ Harvey is the guy and
17:41they looked so much worse. The offense took a step back. They couldn't trust the running backs and it was evident that they felt this way after the season
17:50because they made it a priority to go after Dobbins and to draft Keaton Coleman. You don't do both of those two
17:56things after taking Harvey early last season if you liked what you saw from RJ Harvey. And they can talk all they want
18:02about how him progressing as a player.
18:03He needs to. I understand he had a lot of yards and receptions and touchdowns, but that's because they had no one else
18:09last season. When Dobbins went down they had to go to Harvey and the offense very clearly took a step back when that
18:15occurred. And I'll be honest, they probably lost the Patriots in the playoffs in large part even obviously it was Bo Nix getting hurt. But they
18:22probably beat the Patriots in that game if they have JK Dobbins healthy. They probably do. They just couldn't get anything from RJ Harvey on the ground. I
18:30think Harvey's going to be much more of I mean I don't want to call him a gadget player. It has a very negative
18:35connotation, but more of a player that is being used in that way. Is used on specific plays to get him the ball in
18:41the receiving game, used it the in the red zone. That still has a lot of value fantasy on a very good team. But if
18:46we're looking at who's going to be their lead running back to start the season, it will be Dobbins. And so you're going
18:51to have Coleman. He's probably not going to do much to start the year. I think you're playing Coleman at running back
18:56two in the second half of the year. I think at some point whether it is through injury or through Keaton Coleman
19:01just playing himself onto the field, he will be their lead back on early downs.
19:04He will be getting goal line touches and he will be someone where you're looking at every week and you're like, I can't
19:09bench him. It's a such a good offensive line. He's so efficient. He looks so good. He's breaking off so many consistent chunk plays. I got to play
19:16him this week. Uh and I think that's going to be the case in the second half of the year. And you get him very late
19:20if that's the case.
19:22Nine, uh it is a chunk of players because as it is uh handcuffs. So, if all the top eight players here are
19:28drafted, if you have already drafted one of Bijan, James Cook, Saquon, Achane, Kendre Miller, Jamaal Williams, or Josh Jacobs, then I would grab their handcuff
19:39at this point. That would be Brian Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Wright, Tyler Allgeier, and uh MarShawn Lloyd.
19:49You can draft those players at a baseline if you did not draft one of those running backs that I listed off
19:54because they still have that upside.
19:56But, if you drafted again Bijan, James Cook, Saquon, Kendre Miller, Jamaal Williams, and Josh Jacobs, which is a ton of you are going to draft one of
20:02those guys, I would grab their handcuff.
20:06I've been up and down about handcuffs in the past.
20:10I think it's a positive thing to do if you know.
20:13There are a lot of running backs that I did not list, right? I only listed six running backs. For everyone else, we
20:18kind of don't know. I don't know uh if they're going to run a committee. I don't know if their backup is going to
20:23do anything in fantasy that we're trusting. I don't know if they're just going to go trade or sign for another running back if there's an injury. But,
20:30for these six in particular, we with a very high level of confidence know that if that starter goes down, the backup
20:37will get a significant number of touches, and they will be starting in fantasy. So, the idea that you can spend a round one or round two pick on this
20:46running back, and all you have to do to lock in starting value for the entire season unless you get very unlucky and
20:53like both Saquon and Tank Bigsby tear the ACL, right? It typically doesn't happen. That would be pretty unlucky.
21:00But, more than likely, locking in a starting spot on your roster for the entire season, and all you have to do is
21:07very late in the draft, reach around two rounds ahead of ADP and grab their handcuff. It's worth doing for those six
21:14in particular. So, if you draft them, please draft their handcuff. Honestly, no one else. Maybe I missed one name that you're like kind of add in here,
21:22but I went through the list. Those are the ones I feel good about. Everyone else truly, I think it might be a
21:27committee. I think it might be uh some sort of situation where if it's a long-term injury, they make a trade or
21:33they sign someone so that we really don't trust that backup. And I don't want to waste the bench spot unless we
21:39actually trust the backup to be really, really good in fantasy if there's an injury.
21:44At 10, Trey Sermon we're working a lot further back in drafts now. He's His ADP is literally outside the top 200 a lot.
21:51So, you can keep him in your mind, keep him as an out as your final wide receiver. I don't think Quinton Johnston
21:58is very good. Uh Mike McDaniel also has no allegiance to Quinton Johnston. He was not part of the staff when they
22:03drafted him. Uh Trey Sermon is their best run blocking wide receiver. You hear me say it a lot, but it's a very,
22:09very important thing for specifically the coordinators that want to have highly efficient run games. And that is Mike McDaniel. He wants to run the ball
22:17super efficiently, utilize play action on top of that. Well, you want to have your best run blocking wide receiver on the field when that's the case. And that
22:25is Trey Sermon. So, he's going to play like 90 plus percent of snaps. Um he does not need an injury to do that.
22:31He'll be out there virtually every play on offense. He was a second-round pick last year. And the knock on him was that
22:37he needed time to develop. But it seems like by reporting, he has developed this offseason. And if he has gotten better,
22:45and his snaps are going way up, then people are very much undervaluing him outside the top 200. Again, you can basically leave him as that last player.
22:53Um if you if his ADP is like 220 on the platform you're drafting on, you can just say, "Okay, I have 16 rounds. Uh
22:58Nick said always draft defense and kicker in the final two." Bump it up.
23:02Take a better defense in the third to last round, whatever kicker you want in the second to last round, and just draft
23:08Trey Harris in the final round. I'm totally fine doing that. Or, you can do it with Terrance Ferguson. But honestly, I feel like Terrance Ferguson at this
23:14point has a much higher ADP than Trey Harris. Uh the number 11, Terrance Ferguson. If you are someone that with all this hype I've talked about uh Brock
23:23Bowers and Cole Kmet and Loveland and Trey Tucker recently and really liking, but you're like, I just don't like my teams when I spend that top or mid pick
23:32at tight end.
23:33That's totally fine. Wait until the very end of your draft and take Terrance Ferguson. Wouldn't even be a bench player at that point, it might be a
23:40starter or double dip, take a shot on someone like Isaiah Likely, see if that works out, and then on your bench,
23:46please, on teams where you draft two tight ends late, on teams that are tight end premium, on teams where you wait on
23:52tight end, please have Terrance Ferguson on your bench. Uh at this point, my expectation is that he's going to be the
23:57number three pass catcher on the Rams.
24:00He will be a league winner if either Puka or Adams miss time. And let's be honest, given their histories in their
24:06career, the odds are that both of them will miss a chunk of time this year. Uh maybe both won't miss like a month, but
24:12when you add on the missed games for Adams and Puka, you're probably going to have a minimum of like three or four
24:18weeks that you're absolutely starting Terrance Ferguson as a top seven tight end. And there's a chance you're just starting him consistently
24:27beyond that, because if he's the number three pass catcher on this team, and camp continues cuz we have camp, we have
24:3311 on 11s, we have all these things, in 11 on 11s, in in training camp, we have seen him featured in the red zone,
24:39we've seen him featured uh in the intermediate area of the field. My goodness, if he has a consistent role every week, where we're projecting him
24:46for like four receptions and decent work in the red zone, on the team that could lead the NFL in touchdowns, my goodness,
24:54he's going to shatter his ADP. It does not take a lot to be like the sixth or seventh tight end in fantasy if his role
25:01is what we have seen in 11 on 11s.
25:04Again, they don't do their starters in the preseason.
25:07If the role is what we've seen in camp, he is going to be a top 10 tight end this season and you can get him very
25:13much later than that. So, that's it.
25:16Depending on your league size and how competitive your league is, you really might not need to extend much past this list and I would want the majority or
25:24all of my bench to encompass these players. For a ton of you, I just don't think you're going to have to go much
25:30past that if you are in a 10-team league, you probably won't. 12-team league, five or six bench spots, you probably won't as well. Uh but, if you
25:37do, if you find yourself needing to extend past this, you're only like halfway through your bench, all these guys are gone and you're like, "Oh, no.
25:45What do I do now?" Some other options you can consider are Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Flannoy, Emmett Johnson, Adonai Mitchell, Kayshon Boutte, and Najee
25:55Harris. If you're extending past that list, you better be in like a 16-team league with a ton of bench spots, right?
26:02For almost all of you, if you extend past my first list, you can take some players on that list. Uh this second
26:08list is both lower ceiling and lower confidence bets. A lot of those guys I just listed are going to do nothing this
26:16season. But, they all have breakout potential and we're going to know quickly. So, that's the very important thing. For all of the what, six players
26:24I just listed off, we will know in week one or week two what their role is, how good they look, and what their upside
26:30is. And so, you'll know very early in the season, am I cutting them for whoever's hot on free agency, or do I
26:36want to stick with them because I like what I've seen early in the year. Those are not players that it's like, "Oh,
26:41well, you know, hold on to them for a month, see if they're going to break out." If you're drafting that last bench
26:46player, you'll want to know early in the season what's happening and I think you will with those six.
26:51All right. Uh news video for tomorrow, so make sure you subscribe so you don't miss out on that one. And if you have a
26:57draft this weekend, good luck to all of you. I hope you all dominate your drafts. If you want some extra help, you
27:04want to draft with my dynamic and custom rankings, you can find that on my website thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
27:11If you're still here, be sure to leave a like. Really helps me out. That'll do it for this one, and thank you all for
27:16watching.

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