0:00What's going on, guys? It's Nick here back with another video. We did running backs on Wednesday, so time to go over
0:04my mustdraft wide receivers today. As with running backs, these are not necessarily only the highest upside picks or only the safest picks, but
0:13they're the players that I believe has the best combination of floor and ceiling given their AP. So, we'll start things off in round one with Almond
0:21Sound. I typically don't include round one players in this video just because everyone in round one is an awesome pick, but I wanted to talk about St.
0:30Brown because he's the wide receiver I'd be willing to break my general draft strategy for this season. Uh I just think teams right now, especially when
0:39you have a mid to a late first round pick, turn out better when you start off running back running back. Uh unless you
0:46basically have the two or the three or the four pick, you can get Chase or Puka. I'm for the most part starting off
0:52running back running back this season and I'm just saying who is left between McAffrey JT James Cook and Ashen Jenty I
0:59will take one of them and kind of just skip over the wide receivers. I just think teams turn out better when you do
1:04that. But uh if I'm going to break from that strategy, I'm going to do it with St. Brown in round one because he's
1:12truly just like the perfect embodiment of a round one pick. Um everyone is awesome. Everyone has a league winning ceiling. So, what you're really trying
1:23to do in round one is just not screw up.
1:25There's only going to be one or two bus.
1:27Maybe we run into a year where there's a lot of injuries, but for the most part, every year it's like one or two bus in
1:33the first round. And so, you really just want to avoid being that one guy because no one, you know, is going to be like no
1:40or no role player, right? Like, everyone's going to be solid in round one. And the odds that St. round bus are
1:45just so unbelievably low and he doesn't really sacrifice the ceiling to get you that. He has missed two games is his
1:54fiveyear NFL career. Two games missed due to injury. Uh he has injuries sometimes you're like oh man that's going to knock him out for a month and
2:01then he's like practicing on Friday and you're just like how like he is just so able to stay healthy. Uh he's commanded
2:08at least 140 targets in four consecutive seasons, cleared 1,250 yards in four straight. Uh he scored at least 10 touchdowns in three straight seasons. He
2:18and Jamar Chase are the only players in NFL history with at least 500 receptions, 6,000 yards, and 40 touchdowns over their first five
2:28seasons. And St. Brown clears those pretty easily. It's like he barely hit those metrics. In fact, Jamar Chase and St. Brown are the only two players in
2:36NFL history with at least 515 receptions over a player's first five years. And St. Brown clears Chase by 27. He's got
2:45547 receptions through five years. And this season, why should you expect anything to be different? He's coming off the most targets of his career. He's
2:53in his prime at age 27. Early camp reports are honestly that Tesla isn't really taking that step forward and gaining separation. So that was the one
3:01thing we could have pointed to and been like, well, if Tesla takes that step forward, he starts gaining separation this year. He starts commanding a higher
3:09target share, maybe there are too many malice to feeds where we don't have a spike season for St. Brown. That doesn't
3:15seem like it's going to happen. Uh the team also traded away Dave Montgomery, meaning when they get into the red zone,
3:21especially inside the 10 yard line, they're much more likely at this point to lean a little bit more pass heavy than they did before. Uh they also have
3:28the easiest schedule in the league.
3:29their time with the Bills, the second highest projected point per game total this season. They play a ton of dome games, basically the entire second half
3:37of the season, almost exclusively indoors. We kind of say this every year for Detroit, but it's like you're going to love that later in the year, early in
3:45the season when the weather is much better. You're going to look at this and be like, who cares if they're playing
3:49indoors or outdoors? There's a bunch of great outdoor outdoor games, but as you get into November and December, you're really going to want those indoor games,
3:57and Detroit has a ton of them. uh championship weekend they are outside but it's at Chicago which up in the air
4:03what the weather's going to be but at a baseline it's against Chicago and neither one of these two teams has a
4:09very good defense and so you could see if it's even remotely okay weather like a 56 57 point total in that game and
4:17you're going to want pieces playing in that one in championship weekend. So he's just an amazing pick again this season. He's been an amazing pick
4:24multiple years now. uh if you've got a late first round pick and you're I would do the mock drafts honestly and see how
4:29the teams work out. Again, I prefer running back running back. But if I'm going to break that mold and maybe you're like just not comfortable doing
4:37that because it locks you too much into a box and runs three and four almost forcing you to take two wide receivers,
4:44do it with Amra. He's going to be amazing. He's got league winning upside.
4:47He's an amazing pick this season. I would pretty much only take Chase Puka or Ramra in round one. Personally, Luther Burton up next. Um, I was
4:55skeptical of Burden last season because, um, there was just a lot of talent ahead of him on the depth chart and the fact
5:02that we knew he was going to be ramped up pretty slowly uh, just in his rookie season. Honestly, uh, the end of season
5:09statline wasn't amazing, but he put together a way better rookie season than I ever anticipated him having. Um, again, if you look at like the box
5:18scores, you're like, he had what, one or two good games. If you look at the underlying metrics, he was awesome.
5:23second most yards per route run for rookie wide receiver since 2000. Fourth best first downs per route run in the last decade for a rookie wide receiver.
5:31First downs per route run is a very predictive metric, more predictive than yards per route run. Uh Matt Harmon charted him with really highend success
5:38rates and particularly in like these intermediate routes. There were some that he wasn't overly successful at, but particularly getting across the field
5:47intermediate in and out breaking routes he was really really productive in. Um, those are some of the highest upside routes in fantasy. You know, deep shots
5:56obviously, I guess theoretically, have the most single upside, right? If you're at the 20- yard line, you take a deep shot downfield. Theoretically, we have a
6:03a chance to hit on an 80 yard touchdown, right? Intermediate routes, though, they still come with that potential for an explosive. You get someone running
6:11across the field 15, 20 yards downfield, you can still hit for that long touchdown, but they come at a much higher success rate. And so we're going
6:17to see really high-end efficiency for someone like Luther Burton and maybe not as much for someone like Roma Dun who's running the more difficult downfield
6:25routes. Uh but speaking of explosiveness as well, led the team, which is crazy.
6:30He only had 652 receiving yards, but he led the team in yards gained on explosive plays. Again, even being someone that's not necessarily only
6:38being used deep downfield. Uh he can also play inside and outside. That's really important. We don't want guys getting pigeon holed into slot only, X
6:45only. he can be moved across the formation. 12th highest yards per route run from the slot, third from out wide, and second in heavy sets. That's
6:53important as well because we know Chicago is a team that's going to want to play a bunch of heavy sets this
6:58season as the league is kind of shifting towards that. Um, I know it sounds a little bit crazy, but there's a real
7:04chance that Burden is basically Ben Johnson's new Almanra St. Brown. They had a very similar route tree as rookies. Um, Burden actually had a
7:13higher yards per route run and targets per route run in the rookie seasons. Um, we have Ben Johnson saying he's buying
7:19Burden stock. We've got the GM and the offensive coordinator saying that like no one is showing up earlier or working harder in the off season than Luther
7:27Burden. We've got um Caleb Williams, other players hyping him up. You're going to hear this for another player later in this video when everyone in the
7:37organization plus beat reporters are all saying the same thing. This isn't like only beat reporter speculation, only the head coach. It is GM, offensive
7:46coordinator, head coach, quarterback. It is everyone saying he looks like a stud.
7:51He's going to have a huge role this season. Beat reporters are saying he's the most targeted player in camp. That's what we've been waiting to kind of
7:56figure out. Everything in the world says draft Luther Burden. So, you should probably listen to that. Um, I have the new ADP tool on the website right now.
8:05It's going to track ADPs across different websites. And so you can see uh like what site different players are better values on. Uh particularly on
8:13ESPN right now. If you were to like go in and do a draft, you have to leave with Luther Burton. His ADP is
8:19absolutely ridiculous on ESPN. Uh yeah, I think he could finish as a wide receiver one this season. Very comfortable taking him in round four.
8:28Mike Evans up next. Um I'm comfortable taking him in round five. So, if you want a nice round four, round five stack
8:34and then round six for our next player, it is Luther and then it is Mike Evans.
8:39Um, he did suffer a quad injury very recently. I don't have super updated news on that. By all accounts, it seemed
8:46minor, but obviously track that. If news comes out that he's going to miss four weeks of camp, obviously we are re-evaluating this situation, but it
8:55seems like it's minor, so I'm not too worried as of right now. Uh, but I was in on Mike Evans even before this Pearl
9:02news that he's going to miss the entire season. Um, kind of surprising that it seems like no one cares that that
9:09happened. Like his ADP has not changed at all. He's going the exact same pick that he was before we knew that Pearl
9:15was going to miss the entire season. I assume that's because people say, "Okay, but they brought in Debo and maybe they
9:20think Debo is going to command just as many targets as Piil would have." I don't really see that happening at this
9:26point of Debo's career. Um, he's for sure going to have some good games and they'll find creative ways to use him.
9:31Like this coaching staff obviously knows how to use Debo Samuel. Um, but a healthy Ricky Pearl would have definitely commanded a larger target
9:40share than Debo is going to do. Uh, so for Evans, you know, in in every down role competing with KD coming off a torn
9:48Achilles, Debo and what I really think is going to be more of like a gadget style role. We know that Debo Samuel
9:55doesn't beat man coverage. He just doesn't do that. So he's not someone that's going to go out there as that two
10:01and just command a high target share.
10:03It's going to be designed plays going to Debo Samuel. So that's not going to command a crazy target share. Uh Dejan
10:09Stribbling like I'm excited about him. I think he's a great pick right now, but is still a rookie is still unlikely to
10:14command like a 20% target share this season. And then obviously McAffrey is out there. He's going to command a ton of targets, but Evans and McAffrey run
10:22routes at a very different area of the field. So, originally I'm like, "Okay, we should be all in on Mike Evans
10:28because he could literally score 17 touchdowns." Like, Mike Evans should be amongst the favorites to lead the league in receiving touchdowns this season. But
10:36if we're also going to get a ton of work between the 20s at this point because they need him to do that, like they need
10:43him to step up because they were really counting on Pierall this season. I don't know. I mean, I think this crazy upside
10:49here because like even just going back to the the touchdown thing, what do you think they're going to do when they get
10:54inside the 20-yard line? If we look at Debo's receiving touchdowns by San Fran 3 1 6 27 and three. So, he's not a
11:04touchdown scorer. Debo Samuel for the receiving game. He's going to maybe eat into McCaffry potentially on the ground, but even that we don't know again what
11:12he's kind of at at this point of his career. Dribbling uh college touchdown counts of 5,516 and six. So, these two
11:18are not receiving touchdown threats to Mike Evans. Evans will be the primary target every single time they get in close. And you might say, "Okay, but
11:2749ers don't run many plays." They don't because they're highly efficient, but they run a ton of plays in the red zone.
11:32Only the Jaguars ran more red zone plays than Sam ran last season. They've been top five in red zone plays each of the
11:40last three years. Tampa Bay has not ranked top six in either or any of the last four years. So even though San
11:46Fran's going to run fewer plays than a lot of teams, it'll be highly efficient on those plays and they're going to run,
11:52you know, top five plays in the area that matters most in fantasy, the red zone. And that's the area that Mike
11:58Evans is going to be featured. So we just know Shanahan brought Mike Evans in to score touchdowns. He's going to score
12:03touchdowns. As long as he stays healthy, he's going to shatter his ADP at this spot. So he's just one of those players
12:09that every time we get into round five, I want to be hyperfocusing on getting Evans onto my team. Round six, Parker
12:16Washington. Uh, if you start off running back, running back or you start off with two running backs in the first three
12:23rounds. My goal honestly is rounds four, five, six, Luther Burton, Mike Evans, Parker Washington. If you feel like swapping Luther Burden into Coulson
12:33Lovelin, you can do that as well. But man, if I like avoided wide receiver until round four and I ended up with
12:39Burton, Evans, and Parker Washington, I would be jumping for joy. I think it's an amazing start. Parker, 24 years old, ended last season with stat lines of 6
12:49for 145 and a touchdown, 8 for 115, 5 for 87 and a touchdown, 7 for 107, and a touchdown. Now, their wide receiver
12:58rotation was a little bit hard to predict earlier in the offseason since they just have so many talented players.
13:04But it's become a lot more clear in recent weeks. Brian Thomas Jr., He's going to run the very tough outside routes as their full-time X-wide
13:13receiver. And then by all accounts, Parker Washington's going to rotate between the Z and the F. Very rarely coming off the field, operating as their
13:22most targeted player on offense this season. The entire coaching staff has been non-stop praising him all off season into camp as well. uh not only
13:31his work ethic uh but just how much he's progressed as a wide receiver and how valuable he's made himself to this
13:38offense. You want to be investing in Liam Cohen offenses. He's an amazing uh coordinator. I know he's a head coach but he's offensive coordinator like an
13:46offensive mind. You want to be investing in his players and similar to the Bears.
13:50Uh I I think uh the Jaguars can take that step forward. like it's difficult having these complex systems. Even though it's a great system in year one,
13:58but we saw the Jaguars be awesome in year one of the system. I think they take that next step. They could be, you
14:03know, top three in scoring this season.
14:05And honestly, they did already last season take that big step once they got Jacobe Meyers. It it seemed like they really kind of brought him in, figured
14:13out everyone's role, and things started to click last season. I mean, early on they were kind of force-feeding Brian Thomas Jr. Um, I do think he was playing
14:23hurt and so I think that was part of the reason things didn't work. But the offense just kind of like wasn't bad,
14:28but it couldn't fully get going. But man, once they traded for uh Jacobe Meyers, things were amazing. Like uh first week they lose um tough uh tough
14:40game against Houston. Uh but then they win eight straight for the final nine weeks. They are 33 over 33 points per
14:48game just dominating on offense. Trevor Lawrence the number one overall quarterback in fantasy. I mean really like think about that for a second. This
14:56wasn't one month. This was the final nine weeks of the season. Once they got Jacobe Myers, Trevor Lawrence was the number one overall quarterback in
15:06fantasy and Parker Washington was the wide receiver 12 overall in fantasy.
15:12Honestly, if they had beaten the Bills wild card weekend, which easily could have done, that was a very, very close game. I really think they could have
15:19made a run at the Super Bowl. I think Parker could be going in round four right now. You'd have Lawrence going
15:23probably right next to Drake May in drafts. And so if anything came of that loss, it's the ADP discount that we're
15:30able to have in fantasy this season. I can promise you that the ADPs in these guys are going to rise because the drum
15:37beat for this offense is going to be too loud for Parker Washington as well.
15:41Going to be too loud. But uh he goes on average in the seventh round on the major platforms. you should take him
15:48100% of the time in round six. Reach around ahead of ADP to get him. Uh, and to be honest, like I said, these last
15:55three are focused. Like, I'm going to write a strategy article soon for the website that kind of goes over just like
16:01how I view drafts right now, but that is a huge focus for me is that there are a lot of great wide receback,
16:10running back. And so my goal is either to go running back running back in four through six get Burton Evans Parker or
16:17if we want to change that uh and do like an Amanra that's fine. Again you have the opportunity to draft two. So whether
16:23you want to go Aman Raw two running backs uh Burden Evans Parker or you want to take two running backs Brock Bowers
16:31maybe in like round two and do the same thing. I just think these three wide receivers you can get them in four five
16:37and six you're looking a lot of upside.
16:39Final player talk about today uh is a new addition to the mustdraft players list uh and someone that we really haven't talked about at all this
16:46offseason. So, a new player to go over and that's Jaden Higgins. Um I still think Nico is a stud. He is their number
16:53one. He's a great pick at that two- three turn, especially if you started off Gibbs or Bejon. You can get Nico at
16:59the end of the second round. I think that's a great start to your draft.
17:02Really opens things up. He can be a number one wide receiver. Uh but Higgins is a phenomenal pick where he's going.
17:08uh in like the round 11 or 12 range on average. Somehow round 14 on ESPN.
17:13Honestly, if you are drafting on ESPN right now, you're going to crush it.
17:16He's the craziest ADPs I've ever seen.
17:18It's not even just the players in this video. There's so many ADPs in ESPN that make absolutely no sense. Uh but yeah,
17:23Higgins is a great pick this season. Um Nico is going to be their primary X-wide receiver out there every play. Uh
17:30Higgins is going to be the sl the starting Z wide receiver. Null in the slot. And then Tank Dell hopefully healthy enough to play but kind of gonna
17:37rotate slot rotate Z just kind of like mix and match in. I don't know like we just don't know how healthy he's going
17:42to be. Uh but he's not really going to challenge Higgins as that you know starting outside wide receiver across from Nico Collins. Um didn't have a
17:51great rookie season from like a box score metric. I would say underperformed a little bit from what some expectations were for him. Um but part of that is
18:00because he didn't get a lot of playing time. like to start the year there were some really scrub wide receivers being
18:04played over him. We were like, why are they not just getting him reps out there? That didn't make a whole lot of
18:08sense. Uh and he was also kind of playing like backup X to Nico and that's not really what Jaden Higgins is. He's
18:15not that great at being press coverage, not that great as like a pure man beater right now. He's just not an X wide
18:20receiver. But his his best role is playing the Z off the line of scrimmage facing no press. he was finally getting
18:26a lot more of those in the second half of the season. Not playing x- wide receiver, playing across from Nico Collins and the production was there a
18:33little bit more. Uh, so far this off season in camp, it's everyone. So, this is a player that I was kind of alluding
18:39to when I talked about Burden. Sometimes coaches lie to us. Sometimes players lie to us. But when you've got like the GM,
18:46the coach, the OC, the quarterback, you've got Nico Collins sitting there saying that Jaden Higgins is going to be the face of the franchise at some point.
18:55Everyone is telling us that he's having a great off season, a great camp, that he's the number two, he's going to be
19:02out there a ton, he's going to have a large role in this team. Like, if everyone is saying that and he's going
19:06clearly in the double-digit rounds of fantasy, maybe it's not a guarantee that he outperforms his ADP, but there's a pretty decent chance that he does. Those
19:15are the players you want to be getting onto your team because it's unlikely that everyone is lying to us. there is
19:22no incentive for all of the coaches, all of the players, all of the beat writers to lie. Maybe he ends up getting hurt.
19:30Maybe he ends up underperforming a little bit. Maybe Tank Dell is healthier than we think. He takes on a larger role. But whenever this is happening on
19:39a player who last season went 34th overall that people were very excited about and you can get them as your last
19:45or your second last wide receiver in drafts, it just makes so much sense to bet on a player like that when it also
19:52comes with the very obvious contingent upside that if Nico Collins ever misses time, which he's done at every single year of his career, every year he's
20:01missed time, uh why would you not bet on a player with that sort of upside and still a pretty high floor. Clearly going
20:08to be involved to some level this season. So, I've warmed up a lot to Jaden Higgins recently. I've started to take him a lot in drafts, especially on
20:17underdog because he goes at a range where there's kind of just like this clear drop off in wide receiver talent.
20:23And when you take Higgins, it's kind of the end of that tier and you kind of wait a little bit longer. Um, a lot of
20:29wide receivers going in the next like 30 or 40 picks are very very similar bets.
20:34And so you kind of take Higgins, see the drop off, maybe attack running back with a Keen Mitchell, maybe go after some of
20:40the tight ends in that range, maybe finish off quarterback, and you can go back to wide receiver after that. So, if
20:45you want to take Jaden Higgins or any of the players we talked about today, uh, while also getting my reddraft rankings
20:51for free this season, all you got to do is sign up for your first underdog account today using promo code FFA and
20:57join at least one draft. That is it. You get an email from me giving you access to my website and then you can take all
21:04these guys before their ADPs rise because I can promise you they will. All right, that'll do it for this one. Uh,
21:10thank you all for watching. Tomorrow is camp news. You're really going to want to be subscribed so you don't miss out
21:15on that one. That'll do it for this one.
21:17Be sure to leave a like if you're still here and I'll catch you all on the next one.