Analyze This: Talking Through the More Confusing NFL (and Fantasy) Storylines
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 36 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 27, 2026
Published
Thu, August 27, 2026
21
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsMarvin Harrison Jr.Bryce YoungC.J. StroudCaleb WilliamsCam WardDalton SchultzDaniel JonesGeno SmithJustin JeffersonKayshon BoutteLamar JacksonMalik NabersMichael Pittman
Player analysis
Player insights
Bryce Young
NegativeProjection29:00
Mina Kimes expresses waning hope for Bryce Young's development, noting his inconsistency and lack of physical tools compared to middle-class quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield. While she acknowledges potential for improvement with better surrounding talent, she questions if he can reach the necessary threshold to justify a long-term commitment.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection15:05
The Texans' staff has developed a healthier communication and understanding of CJ Stroud, leading to the expectation that we may see the best version of him this season.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeProjection54:22
Robert Mays suggests that for the Bears to be a serious division contender, Caleb Williams needs to elevate his success rate to around the 20th percentile, though the team has the potential to reach a top-tier offensive ceiling.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection39:40
Mina Kimes notes that Cam Ward's preseason has been a 'rough watch' with timing issues and missed opportunities, though she acknowledges some of the struggles were not entirely his fault.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeRole14:51
Dalton Schultz is not considered an in-line Y blocker, which contributed to the Texans' reliance on jumbo sets last season; the team has since added other tight ends to fill that specific role.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection3:59
Daniel Jones is receiving positive reports from those who have seen him, with consensus being that he looks great, though there remains a need to see him perform in actual game action to confirm his status.
Insight pageGeno Smith
NegativeRole40:06
Mina Kimes and Robert Mays note that Geno Smith remains the quarterback for the Seahawks, but express concern regarding the team's offensive infrastructure and the reliance on shotgun seven-step drops.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveUsage52:00
Mina Kimes notes that the Eagles' new offensive scheme, influenced by the Packers' approach, features a high percentage of outbreaking routes which aligns well with Jalen Hurts' strengths.
Insight pagePositiveValue62:00
Jason Moore is more in than out on Jalen Hurts, noting he is the cheapest he has ever been in his post-breakout career, often falling to the sixth round. Despite a disappointing 2023, he remains a high-upside asset who can replicate 15 rushing touchdowns, and the new offensive system under Kellen Moore should be an improvement over the previous regime.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection71:18
Mike Wright expresses concern about drafting Justin Jefferson in the first round due to the uncertainty surrounding Minnesota's quarterback situation. Despite Jefferson's elite talent, his production suffered significantly last year with poor quarterback play, and there is skepticism that the team can consistently provide the high-level passing needed to justify a top-tier draft pick.
Insight pageKayshon Boutte
NegativeValue5:33
The Texans acquired Kayshon Boutte in a trade that is viewed as a high-upside, low-risk move for the team, though his fit within the receiving corps remains a point of discussion.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeProjection47:36
Mina Kimes and Robert Mays express comfort with Lamar Jackson in the new offensive scheme, noting he is a perfect fit for under-center play-action and throwing over the middle. However, they note a potential risk if his athleticism or sack-taking tendencies regress toward his older playing style.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeUsage40:17
Mina Kimes expresses concern regarding Malik Nabers' lack of production in the preseason, noting he hasn't caught a pass, and challenges Brian Daboll to get him involved.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBreakout37:16
Mina Kimes suggests that Michael Fleur's usage of Marvin Harrison Jr. could potentially vault him to star potential or at least establish him as a solid number one receiver.
Insight pageNegativeBreakout67:57
Andy Holloway finds Marvin Harrison Jr. confusing, noting that while he has elite talent and a high target share potential in a pass-heavy Arizona offense, there is lingering uncertainty about his ability to be a true elite producer in his rookie season. The team's poor defense should force them to pass often, but his actual production remains a question mark.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
NegativeRole4:34
The Colts' offense faces significant challenges to replicate last year's success, specifically noting the absence of Michael Pittman as a hurdle for the unit to overcome.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveSleeper69:57
Michael Wilson is identified as an underrated receiver who performed exceptionally well in the latter half of 2023, ranking third in receiving yards per game from weeks 9-18. There is a debate regarding whether he could challenge Marvin Harrison Jr. for the WR1 role in Arizona, though the consensus is that Harrison will likely lead in targets.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeUsage12:45
Nico Collins is currently deployed in a very streamlined, stationary role on the line of scrimmage; there is a suggestion that diversifying his usage could make the Texans' offense more dynamic.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveUsage74:45
Rashee Rice is highlighted as a high-volume target for Patrick Mahomes, ranking behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in targets per route run (32%) last year. Despite off-field concerns and a knee injury, his efficiency and role in the Chiefs' offense make him a strong fantasy asset, provided he maintains his yards-after-catch ability.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveValue56:53
Mina Kimes expresses a strong personal liking for Romeo Doubs, noting he is a nice player who contributes to the depth of the Packers' receiving corps.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveProjection56:11
Mina Kimes identifies Tucker Kraft as a vital component of the Packers' pass-catching group, noting that his health alongside other receivers could make the unit the most dangerous in the post-Davante Adams era.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:20Consult a healthcare professional if symptoms persist. Welcome back to the Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, only NFL podcast.
0:25One of the hosts thinks instead of saying pound the rock, we should start saying adopt the rock and give it a forever home.
0:32That's Lenny. I mean, it guys. Uh, we don't say pound in this house.
0:37Lenny's never, I don't know. Maybe he has been to a pound.
0:40I don't know. I adopted him from a shelter, but do we even, do we call shelters pounds anymore?
0:46We got Frankie from the Chicago. I don't, I think it was, I think you'd call it the pound.
0:52It was like the Chicago, like, yeah, I, so I, yeah, pound, I think is fine.
0:56I think it's like, it's a city run thing.
0:59It is a pound. That's not a rescue. You're impounded.
1:02It just sounds weird. It's like calling like a prison, like the, the, the clankers.
1:07I don't know. Anyways, uh, that's our race dog adopter dog lover, uh, host of the athletic football show.
1:12So gracious to join me so close to the NFL season doing a, a, a, something different this episode.
1:18It's gonna be a two parter. Later. I am going to be joined for the first time by the fantasy footballers, uh,
1:25to do the fantasy version of what Robert and I going to do, which is something I am tentatively calling football therapy.
1:31It's really last minute football therapy. Robert and I have done dozens of podcasts and preview.
1:36I don't know if you've done previews yet, but you're going to do previews.
1:40You're getting there. You've done a ton of off season content.
1:44And my thought process here, Robert was throughout all of this, as we try to discuss, predict, project what things are going
1:50to look like in the coming season. What are the things that are keeping you up at night?
1:56Because you just can't figure it out. The things where in the spirit of football therapy, you need to talk it out
2:02with someone else to who can help you. If not arrive at a concrete prediction, at least feel a little better.
2:09That's my goal here today. I'm going to do that with fantasy players later in the second half of this show, but
2:15we're going to talk real football here. When you sent me yours, it was a lot of the ones that I've been struggling with this season too.
2:23I feel like we're all struggling with the same things.
2:26We know certain things are going to happen just because it's how every season unfolds.
2:31There are certain units that come out of nowhere and surprise us that kind of define the season in a certain way.
2:37But I think this year, it's really hard to pin down which of those units it's going to be.
2:43And so that's where I'm at. Like if you remember talking to Barnwell a couple weeks ago on his show, and it's
2:50if I could fast forward and know 10 things about the season, what would they be?
2:55And I think I've consistently gone back to this idea of certain units underperforming or overperforming because if I knew the answer
3:01to that, I think I'd have a much better ability to predict how the season's going to go.
3:07Yeah, it is a similar way of thinking of it.
3:10Like, okay, like the things we actually have to see play out because it's impossible because there are things we already know.
3:16We already know that the Seahawks and the Rams are going to be great.
3:20We already know that certain coaches are going to be really successful, blah, blah, blah.
3:25One of the teams that neither of us picked, I could have done.
3:29I mean, this is the team that's given me a ton of angst is the Colts.
3:34We were talking before we started recording about Alec Pierce, who like might be back at practice this week.
3:39Everybody says Daniel Jones looks great. You've been there.
3:42You said he looks great. Literally everybody I've talked to says he looks great.
3:46But like I just can't. I just got to see it right first and not just see it in person.
3:52And I need to see an action. So I could have added the Colts to this discussion quite easily.
3:58They're one of the teams at the top of a list like this and in part because they're, they're one of the
4:05weirder teams because the best version of the Colts looked incredible last year.
4:08The best version of the Colts was the best offense in the league over the first half of last year.
4:14But the Colts are one of those teams where even if you're talking yourself into the optimistic version of the Colts, so
4:21many things have to go right for them to feel like they're one of the real contenders in the AFC.
4:27Oh, just have the offense be as hot as it was last year without Michael Pittman with Alec Pierce being hurt with
4:34a new right tackle with a quarterback coming off an Achilles.
4:37And oh yeah, you need like four players on your defense that are rookies to be key contributors for you just to
4:44get to a place where your average on that side of the ball.
4:48And so the AFC is wide open. I'm not sure it's wide open enough for all of the Colts contingencies having to
4:54fall into place for them to actually be a player in this thing.
4:58If I see that Alex Pierce is back at practice and that he looks like himself, I think I'll even with the
5:05uncertainties around Jones feel better about this offense. I think he's really, really important to it.
5:09And without him, I'm I do have concerns, but let's put a pin in that because I'm sure I'll have time to
5:16talk about that as we see what happens with him.
5:19I'll go first here. I'm going to stay in the Colts division.
5:23I sent this to you before the announcement of the trade, but I love that we're going to talk about it because
5:29I want to talk about the trade, which is to say the fact that Kayshon Booty is now Houston Texan.
5:35And my question for you was simply, did the Texans do enough on offense?
5:39There's kind of a specific group of teams where we know one side of the ball is elite and the other side
5:46needs to be just average and you're going to hit the other side of that.
5:51So I'm going to in the offense. I have Minnesota, Philadelphia and Houston, and we're going to talk about the Eagles a little bit later.
5:58Minnesota is a tiny bit different, but I think the same thing with all three of those teams is the offense just
6:05has to be average to above average. So which Houston was last year and obviously imploded, but they made some pretty significant
6:11changes in offense that I think are worth talking about.
6:14Ripped up the offensive line, did it again. Now there's even more changes where we thought Keelan Rutledge was going to play
6:21center so much so that Troy Aikman was confused in a preseason game.
6:25I don't know if you caught that where he was like, Oh, actually Keelan Rogers, like he was like, take it, which Aikman is extremely prepared.
6:33And I thought that was kind of funny because I think a lot of us were like, wait a second, this is going to be quite different.
6:41So now it's looking like Arante Arsuri, Rutledge, Evan Brown, who's like a journeyman center, Ed Ingram, Brainsmith.
6:46That, that was a really fascinating decision. I'd like to hear your thoughts about it because it seems like they're leaning into,
6:53it's not that Rutledge failed in center. In fact, he looked quite good in the preseason.
6:58It just seems like they're leaning into the position that he's probably elite at.
7:02Um, but you know, they lost Jaden Higgins and that was extremely concerning, but then they pulled off what I thought was
7:08a pretty high upside trade for them at low risk rather for, uh, Keishon booty.
7:13Uh, otherwise, you know, it's a pretty uncertain receiving group behind them with a lot of the injuries to Jay Leno and Tank Dell.
7:20I do think we're going to see more too tight end sets.
7:24Marlon Klein was a draft pick, but generally I want to ask like, do you feel, cause this has been the, one
7:30of the worst run games in football for, several years now it's been an offensive line.
7:35That's constantly been in flux. Despite that, it's been an above average ish offense.
7:39Do you think they did enough? Because we are, we don't need to talk about these Texas defense.
7:45Just ignore it all together. Did they do enough to clear that bar?
7:49The Jaden Higgins thing gives me a little bit of pause.
7:52If Jaden Higgins had been playing, I think it would have been easier to talk myself into just a firm.
7:58Yes, because I would have been so excited about the pass catchers and just the way that all the pass catching roles came together.
8:05Nico Collins, Jaden Higgins, Jalen Knoll as your three main receiver options combined with a tight end room, which we can talk about.
8:12I think the tight end room for the Texans, even if it's not the most improved necessarily because the quality of players
8:19they brought in, we can argue about. It is the most transformed room positionally, maybe in the entire NFL.
8:24Kate Stover was their number two tight end by the end of last season.
8:29They had like one and a half tight ends at a certain point last year.
8:33He was their number one in the playoff game.
8:36This always gets forgotten when people talk about Nico Collins getting hurt.
8:39Don Schultz got hurt. Kate Stover was catching meaningful balls.
8:42And even Kate Stover, the role he's playing now is in all that two-back stuff that they do.
8:48So they had no inline tight end option. That's why they played so much jumbo last year.
8:53And so them having five playable tight ends, that's great.
8:56But when you remove Jaden Higgins from it, even when you put Kayshawn Booty in, I just don't think the individual pieces
9:03fit quite as well as they did. So I think that gives me a little bit of hesitance.
9:08The offensive line, I think it'll depend on how you want to look at it.
9:12You could do this two ways. You could say, all right, we paid all this money for Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller.
9:19The fact that Trent Brown and some combination of Keelan Rutledge and Evan Brown might be better than Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith.
9:26Is that a good thing? Does that mean that the guys that you maybe weren't betting on were just better and beat them out?
9:33Or that those were missteps in the guys that you chased after this offseason?
9:37So I do think the offensive line will be better.
9:40And my understanding of why it shook out the way that they did is that when you have – Keelan Rutledge is
9:47going to give you more physicality no matter what, no matter what position he plays.
9:52The problem is they're going to put enough on the center mentally.
9:55They're going to put enough on the center mentally.
9:58Or can – do you want to put that on a rookie?
10:01And the combination of Brown at center and Rutledge at guard gives you the physicality that you didn't have at that spot last year.
10:09But you still have a veteran center and you're not putting as much on the rookie.
10:13So I think that's probably why it shook out that way.
10:17But I'm still surprised they didn't think the Rutledge-Teller pairing was their best path forward.
10:21Yeah, it's – basically, like you said, they're not – they're ripping the band-aid very quickly with Teller.
10:27Like this – like they looked at it and like everyone else who's kind of watched him play this offseason, they're like, this was a mistake, right?
10:35And I – to some degree, actually appreciate them doing that now instead of kicking the can down the road.
10:41I've said before a lot that Aronte Ares-Tere and whether or not he can improve in run blocking is going to be such a big factor.
10:49Because I just think last year there were times where he looked viable at pass protection, but not to me on the ground.
10:56And if the whole – you know, we've – those guys have probably listened to a lot of podcasts.
11:01We've all talked about how bad the Texas run game was, how often they were in third and long, the pressures that put on Stroud, yada, yada, yada.
11:10If we – if this run game can even get to like 20th, to me, the left side has to be significantly better than it was.
11:17Maybe they like Rutledge next to him. I do want to go back to – before we move on there – to
11:24something you said, which is you don't see Booty fitting in exactly in the Higgins role.
11:29I think that's an important point because I think sometimes, you know, like there's just – people look at them and they're like, they're big.
11:36Oh, they're very different players. They're extremely different players.
11:39Yeah, like the way Booty was used in New England was a lot more like Nico Collins.
11:44Like he – so I'm interested with Nico Collins.
11:47You know, it's not like Booty slots in and is immediate – I guess he's primarily their Z.
11:52But if this team is – as we – you talked about the tight ends, it's probably going to use more two tight end sets.
12:00Is it going to be Higgins and Booty on the field or is Booty more of the changeup with you'd rather have one of those quicker slots?
12:08I think Noel was probably the third receiver. I think Noel was probably limited to like a slot role and a vertical slot role.
12:15And the thing with Higgins is I think last year's version of Jaden Higgins maybe is a little bit closer to what Kayshaun Booty is.
12:23What he was adding to his game this offseason, some of the underneath change of direction things that he was potentially going
12:29to bring, he was just going to be such a more complete player.
12:33What I'm wondering is can you have Nico Collins do some of the Jaden Higgins sort post glance kind of over the
12:40middle type stuff and use Kayshaun Booty as a more traditional vertical X receiver?
12:44They've been hesitant to do that. I think they've really tried to keep Nico Collins' role more streamlined than that.
12:50But I honestly think it might be the best version of the offense if they try to move him around a little bit more.
12:57I feel like it's such a trope right now for those of us who talk about football where like it's such a
13:04trope where we look at a big receiver and we're like, but what if he was in the slot?
13:10You're like, don't you feel yourself doing that constantly?
13:12I don't even need him in the slot. I just want him to not be stationary and isolated spot on the line of scrimmage.
13:19And he is of all the quote unquote number one receivers in the NFL.
13:24He has the most streamlined specific deployment of any top 10 guy right now.
13:28And I think there's a reason for that, but I still feel like diversifying it a little bit without Higgins would just
13:34make the offense potentially a little bit more dynamic than it is right now.
13:39Yeah, I think Collins is probably of the top tier of receivers.
13:42He already, I would say, how many receivers in the NFL are better at work in the middle of the field right now?
13:49Armand Ross, St. Brown, different style, obviously. But like, that's kind of it, man.
13:53Like, so whatever you can do to find ways like you do, I, to your point, like I don't like Nico Collins
14:00being used to clear out space for other players.
14:03I think booty is someone who you'd much rather have in that role.
14:07So I think there's opportunities there, like you said, to put Collins in more favorable positions.
14:11Yeah. Like, I guess overall, like to go back to my original premise, I think this can be a top 10 to 15 offense.
14:19I have trouble getting them into the top 10 because of the questions around the offensive line, the receivers, and also just how stacked the top 10 is.
14:27But I feel pretty good about that. If the run game can get to 20, do you think that's possible?
14:33Let's just wrap here. Because if not, yeah, okay.
14:36I do. I think with Brown and Rutledge, you're just, your physicality is just so much, you increase so much.
14:42And Ed Ingram's a good run blocker. And the tight end part of this is huge.
14:47They had no in-line Y blocker last year. Dalton Schultz is not that guy.
14:51He shouldn't be that guy. Even Foster Moreau and Marlon Klein, the combination of those two just gives them a skill set they didn't have.
14:58And the other part that I do think is worth mentioning here before we move on, just about the offense in general,
15:05I think they learned a lot about CJ Stroud last year.
15:08And I think CJ Stroud learned a lot about them.
15:11And I think that the health of that relationship and dialogue and communication, you need to learn how to get the most
15:18out of your players, especially your quarterback. That's a process.
15:21And I think that process has looked really healthy for them over the course of this offseason.
15:26And I think overall, the staff is just in a spot where they feel like they really understand him now in a
15:33way that they maybe didn't last year. And I think that we're just potentially going to see the best version of CJ Stroud we've ever seen.
15:40And I think that's a really important part of this discussion.
15:44Yeah. Well, I mean, people always forget like, you know, we talk about like a rookie year, like a first year quarterback, first year this or that.
15:52Like first time play, first year play caller. Absolutely.
15:54Learning experience as well for Nick Kaley. And also like, I just, I just said this when we did my Dixons preview.
16:01So much of what he had to do, what offense was born out of necessity.
16:06You talked about the jumbo. Just trying to survive.
16:08That's it. Yeah. So like, and the compensate with the fact they could run the ball.
16:13So it kind of lives or dies based on whether or not they can get that rookie.
16:18Just, just below average is all I ask for.
16:21All right. What is your thing that you're working through?
16:24What is the, which, which is going to be the surprise defense that reframes the season?
16:29There's going to be one. And we could go so many different directions about this, but I think there are a lot of teams.
16:36We'd feel pretty confident about them landing in the top eight, the top 10, pretty firmly offensively, Dallas, Cincinnati, Buffalo, green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, San Francisco.
16:44One of those teams is going to have a defense that is significantly better than we think it's going to be good
16:50luck figuring out which one of that it's going to be.
16:54And because there are so many different routes that this can take.
16:57The Cowboys improve their personnel, but they also changed out the play caller.
17:01The Bengals drastically improve their personnel in a more aggressive way than they ever have before the bills, new play caller, the Packers, new play caller, the lions.
17:10That's a different conversation. They didn't really do anything, but I do think there's a path for them to be better on defense than people expect.
17:17And the bears, like, is there any way the bears can tap into some version of what they did last year where
17:24they're just blitzing the heck out of people in the playoffs?
17:27They play a little bit more of a volatile style.
17:30That's probably the one I feel least confident about, but there is one of these teams that we think, ah, maybe there'll
17:37be the 15th or 16th best defense. That's going to be the eighth best defense with a top eight offense.
17:43And I think it's just going to change the way we think about the expectations for that team.
17:48I can't get there with any of the NFC North teams.
17:52And we'll talk about the division later. So we can just get, unless you want to, you believe there in any, I
17:58just, the talent is so deficient for me at key positions on all three of those teams.
18:03We'll see what happens when Micah gets back. I think when Micah gets back, I can talk myself into the Packers.
18:10Yeah. I can talk myself into the Packers because I feel like Edron Cooper is probably an underrated player in terms of
18:16us considering what a difference maker he can potentially be.
18:19Their interior pass rush with Javon Hartgrave and Devante Wyde being back should be pretty good.
18:24And if Micah can get back, I think they'll be better at corner than they were a year ago.
18:30Their safety room is good. And I think Jonathan Gannon is an adult.
18:34So I do think that there's a path for them to be improved after Micah gets back.
18:39I'll say this about the lions. The lions were a top 10 defense by DVO way last season.
18:44I know. I, it's dope. When I did the preview, I was looking on the metrics.
18:49I was like, this is insane. The fact that they, but a lot of it was still tilted towards the beginning of
18:56the season before sky started dropping like flies. And yeah, I just, God, like who's the lion's second corner?
19:01Who's the lion's safety? Who's the lion? Like, here's my, here's what I'd say to that.
19:06My devil's advocate point would be Terry and Arnold didn't play that much last year and was bad.
19:12It was bad. Yeah, I know. And so the idea probably won't be worse than Terry and Arnold was last year.
19:18Brian branch didn't play a lot last season. Like I, I think there's a path because I think the front can be
19:24way better than it was last year. Everything they've said about a Lee McNeil and how good he looks, maybe that can
19:31do some of the heavy lifting that, that I don't feel as good about, but one of these teams is going to do it.
19:38Well, one of the teams, okay. So I just, the first three teams you mentioned, I actually can get there with Dallas, Cincinnati, Buffalo, I think.
19:46And if I had to pick one of them, I would go Dallas of the three.
19:51Yeah. Cause Cincinnati, I think the past defense is going to be better.
19:55I major issues questions about the run defense and the linebacker position.
19:58I also think it's a team that's if they score as anticipated, we'll be in situations where run defense might not matter that much.
20:06Honestly, kind of copy paste for the bills to some degree about run defense.
20:10I'm very interested in seeing like people kind of sleep on that.
20:13The bills had the worst defense last year. And, you know, there's a scheme change with Jim Leonard.
20:19They added some pieces up front, switching to three, four, all of that.
20:23But I think that, you know, that is a team where coaching will help for sure.
20:28But I just think when I take a step back and look at the depth chart, I'm still kind of not seeing
20:34enough blue chip talent for me to get there.
20:37That's my concern. Yeah. That's my concern is that, and I think you can make an argument, the run defense specifically, I
20:43think is a good thing to point out when they're, when you're playing in those more static four, two nickel looks, you
20:50need guys that can just kind of eat up blocks or just be real.
20:54I mean, that's, I think that they were, they didn't have the personnel to be as much of a sitting ducks as
21:01they were in the run game last year. Now, when you even look at the first couple of preseason games, all the
21:08slanting they're going to be doing, I think Jim Leonard, my optimistic case for the bills is that they're just going to
21:14make a mess of things way more than they did with McDermott up front.
21:18They tried to make a mess of things on the backend consistently, just all the disguise.
21:23And that's the world they wanted to live in.
21:26They did not do that up front enough considering just the lack of blue chip talent that they had.
21:32If they can try to do a little bit more of that, if they can force the issue, if Dan Walker can
21:38be disruptive, that Oliver stuff, I think gets reframed a little bit because of what we just learned.
21:44Like I needed him to have like a huge season for this to all come together.
21:48Maybe that can still happen. I didn't know he was dealing with that when I was talking about it the entire summer.
21:55I do see a path where the bills defense can be like a slightly souped up version of something we saw from
22:02the Falcons last year, where you're looking at the talent up front and it's like, ah, this is leaves a lot to be desired.
22:09And then we wake up and they're a top 15 defense because they're just forcing the issue in a way where again,
22:15they're just kind of making a mess of things.
22:18I can't like, so I'm looking at last year's DVO rankings and I'm, I'm capping it at under 23 because 22 is Carolina and 23 is new England.
22:27I think most people think those are realistic top 10.
22:30Carolina is maybe more of the, would be the making the leap unit.
22:33New England. I think a lot of folks are pretty good.
22:37A lot of that had to do with injuries and, uh, but of the teams in the, because most of the teams
22:43you mentioned are in the bottom, you know, 10 or so Dallas, can I interest you in some New York giants or
22:50is that secondary to dubious for you? Am I too high on the Arvel Reese clips from the preseason?
22:56All right. The, I, we do this every year with this, with the giants defense.
23:00And I do feel better about it now because I think Denard Wilson with that pass rush, no one, very few people
23:07in the NFL are living a more different life at this time in 2026 than they were in 2025.
23:12Then Denard Wilson, who's number one edge rusher last year was like, name it was Arden key.
23:18When I did the giants preview, I was like trying to go back to Tennessee to get information on Denard Wilson.
23:24And I was like, none of this matters. Like I can't, there's just literally, they were so untalented, like so untalented and Tennessee's a defense.
23:31I think should be better too, but let's just go back to my pick.
23:36Dallas is, I think the clear cut choice, Dallas, who was 32nd last year.
23:40Um, three second way to DVO two, which is kind of shocking.
23:43Uh, you saw them right trade for Quinn and Williams that improved the run defense and pass rush, but they were still
23:50a nightmare in coverage, but probably one of the more radical overhauls from a personnel perspective at all three levels.
23:56Um, you know, I think obviously upfront, they've added a bunch of edges, go like Rashawn Gary, Malachi Lawrence, even Von Miller for depth.
24:03Uh, um, I'm skipping. Oh, as a rock was here too, who I really like.
24:08And then on the back end, Caleb Downs, safety, Jalen Thompson, Durant and all that.
24:12My big question about Dallas. And I want to get your thoughts on this because on its face, first of all, Christian Parker coming from Philadelphia.
24:20I know he said it's not going to be copy paste, but the assumption is there's going to be some similarities between
24:27this defense and the Vic Fangio defense. On paper, it's interesting because like, there's a lot of similarities with the build now
24:33to Philadelphia, to Seattle in terms of having like stud defensive tackles, a do everything nickel, prove minute safety, versatile safeties, whatever.
24:40The one thing though, Dallas that was holding me back all off season was linebacker.
24:44Cause I was just like, this is, and that's, what's different between this team and those other teams.
24:50And now you're Barham Pills. I can't, that's what I was saying.
24:53Two drives out of Barham cannot make me change that.
24:56Talk me out of that because holy smokes, he looks sick in the, I didn't talk about him earlier this week, but I am huffing those giant.
25:05So for those who don't know, Barham is the third round draft pick out of Michigan.
25:09Who's been injured and got to see some action and looked like, I don't even know what kind of player I would,
25:16who's a linebacker here reminds you of. Oh, just violent, fast, just downhill.
25:20It's funny. Cause I kind of wish he's a little bit closer to overshown than you would like.
25:25Like I really wanted a little bit of a different profile perhaps, but if he's anything like he looked in the preseason,
25:32it's hard for me not to get excited about this defense.
25:35I think he'll also, they'll use him in a bunch of ways.
25:39I mean, the same way that they used Jihad Campbell a little bit on the edge last year, but that was the whole thing with Barham.
25:47And I think they'll, they'll do some five, they'll do some five, one stuff with him.
25:51I think this year. And I think the front diversity and multiplicity is going to be a huge part of this team period.
25:58I think Christian Parker is going to believe in that linebackers.
26:02Absolutely. You're relying on Demary and overshown has been more of an idea than anything else over the course of his career.
26:08And then a rookie that is changing positions, but I don't know, man.
26:12I just, I think that there's gonna be a lot of similar DNA with the Philly stuff, but Christian Parker, one of
26:19the reasons that I'm, I'm like, I've been the biggest Christian Parker guy for like three years.
26:24Like he's been the defensive coordinator candidate in the league.
26:27I've been most excited about, I think for a lot of different reasons, but I think there's a couple of things that
26:33make me excited about it because it's not going to be just be copy paste.
26:38One Christian Parker's first job in the league was working for Mike Patton.
26:42I think he believes in some pressure stuff in a way that they didn't always lean into over the course of his time with Vic.
26:49And I'll be curious to see how much of that we see.
26:53And I honestly think Barsham and overshown both moving forward more than they're moving back is something I could potentially be interested in.
27:00And two, there's just been a diversity of how they've played in the stops he's even had with Vic.
27:06Like when they were in Denver, it's like, we're just going to play more man coverage because we have the horses to do that.
27:13I think they've been open-minded about the type of team they need to be based on their personnel.
27:18And he's seen that a lot. And I think a similar process here, hopefully come out on the other side with the right answers.
27:25You never know that with the first year coordinator, but I think the process will be correct.
27:31I also just like the edges that they have.
27:33I mentioned, I kind of lied over the fact that I really like what I saw from Azaraku.
27:39But between Azaraku, Gary, again, going back to Seattle and Philadelphia, having edges who are really good against the run is very important in those schemes.
27:46And on paper, they've got that here in Dallas.
27:49And those guys don't, again, to go back to the teams I mentioned, they don't have to be 13 plus sack guys
27:56for this defense to work and be successful. Quinton Williams is the tip of the spear here, right?
28:01So I'm excited to watch it. I'm, listen, last year they literally could not like communicate on the back end.
28:07I mean, there was, the thing I always said about the Dallas defense is it felt like it was just like full of air at all times.
28:15That was awful. So bad in zone coverage. So there's going to be, they're going to be better almost by default here,
28:22but I think just given the talent, the type of talent, the coaching, it's a good pick for this is the, and
28:29then if that happens, I mean, with this offense, good God.
28:32Okay. I almost believe in it too much. Yeah, I know.
28:35It worries me how optimistic I am about the entire situation right now.
28:39It's not a comfortable place for me. I shouldn't be also saying Jackson Barham changes everything.
28:44We're talking about a tweener third round linebacker who played like one half of a pre, like just get out of here.
28:50If you're not talking like that after preseason week two, you're not living.
28:54That's the entire point of this. Okay. Mine's a little, my next one's a little bit less fun.
29:00I, I wrote, how good does Bryce Young have to be to earn another season as a Panthers starter?
29:06So Panthers picked up his fifth year option, but you know, it's not that much.
29:10Um, so I've had trouble kind of talking about the Panthers offense.
29:14I think just because of Bryce and generally trying to work through whether I think he has another level to reach, because
29:20I do think it's worth acknowledging that he has improved every year in the NFL.
29:25I was looking at his career numbers and an EPA per play.
29:28He is risen every year, most notably in success rate.
29:31He went from 30th to 29th to 17th last year.
29:34Now, some of that has to do with him being extremely conservative last season.
29:39Uh, I feel like this kind of got lost in the wash, but his average, he was 32nd just above Rogers in average depth of target.
29:46Part of the reason why his sack rate and interceptions came down, but he became a more efficient quarterback.
29:52And. I do think like there's potential for another jump this year, this offense, what they've done losing the tackles hurt that Freeling looked really good.
30:00I talked about that in the preseason still like this receiver group.
30:03They could still use maybe one more player, but like for you from an organizational perspective, what would you have to see to justify continuing with this?
30:12And do you think Bryce is capable of it?
30:14I think you'd have to be knocking on the door of like a championship caliber offense.
30:19And when I say that, I mean something like if you finish this year, 12th and some offensive efficiency metric, and you
30:26could talk yourself into taking another small step forward next year for, I mean, as simple of a reason as we lost
30:32Chris Basil coming into the year, he would have given us the opportunity to do all this different stuff because we felt
30:39like we could stick him on the line of scrimmage.
30:42Leggett is a vertical player, but he's a vertical player.
30:45You have to create separation for. And so I think it makes you pigeonhole the other two pass catchers a little bit too much.
30:52Again, your offensive line, you're shuffling from day one.
30:55If you can get Moten back at some point this year, you move Freeling to left tackle.
31:00Can the offensive line be even better next year?
31:03That's where it would have to be. Like I would have to be in a position if I were Dan Morgan saying,
31:09I think we are close enough to have like a Super Bowl caliber offense in 2027 with some more incremental improvements for
31:16me to feel good about just rolling it back with him.
31:19Because at a certain point, you got to be ready to compete.
31:23Yeah. You've spent money. I mean, there's enough of this core.
31:26Like Moten's getting older. You've, Devin Lloyd's 29, 30 years old.
31:29Jalen Phillips is like, you've spent the money. At a certain point, you got to be knocking on the door.
31:35You're not in year one or two of this build anymore.
31:39Now you're closer to year four. And so if you don't think he's close enough or you're ready to compete, then what are we doing?
31:46Like if you're the 20th best offense in the league again, you're really having to tell yourself a story about what the
31:53ceiling of this thing feels like at a time when you really should be getting ready to be competitive.
31:59I wrote 2024 Baker is the threshold where I would want to continue moving forward with him as the starting quarterback for any kind of long-term.
32:06I was trying to think to your point. The guy through 40 touchdowns in 2024?
32:11But like, where would you rank 2024 Baker? Probably like the 12th, right?
32:15To your point. Like, that's what I was just trying to think of like, where's the bar here?
32:20And that was weird because Baker is that incredibly rare thing in the NFL, which is a middle-class quarterback, which is obviously
32:27leading to some strife at the moment. So it's like, if you could get young to that level where he's in that
32:3313, 15-ish, 12 to 15-ish range, and you can do a middle-class contract with that, how does that compare to you ripping it up and trying it again?
32:42Those are the difficult decisions teams have to make like Tampa.
32:45I would say a couple different things to that.
32:48One, even if Baker is a smaller quarterback, he's significantly bigger than Bryce Young.
32:52And I think has significantly more physical ability than Bryce Young.
32:55The arm talent and even the scrambling. Like Baker's ability to break tackles, to do things with his legs.
33:01Like Bryce can be a creative player in the pocket, but he's not somebody that has the over, like the physical, the
33:08requisite physical ability to be a guy who's doing a lot with his legs.
33:12He's not a scrambler. He hasn't been. And so I think Baker gives you more than that.
33:17Here's, we talked about this a little bit on our show this week, and I think this is where I land with it.
33:24What you're describing is such a specific situation. All right.
33:27If it's a middle-class quarterback contract, which don't exist, by the way, not on second deals to get a middle-class quarterback contract,
33:33you got to flame out and start over somewhere.
33:36Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, that's like it. Those are the only ones.
33:40And so Bryce's people know that too. And so the idea that they're going to take 35 million a year on a
33:46rookie contract extension, I think that's going to be tough to talk them into.
33:51But even if that happens, and even if you say, all right, if the top of the market's 60, we're paying him 35.
33:58What can we do with the excess 25 to make up for the gap between him and those other top guys?
34:04I think, I don't know if that's the right way to look at it.
34:08I think the opportunity cost that comes with playing him at quarterback and preventing yourself the opportunity to upgrade is potentially more
34:15dangerous than saving the 25 million if you get him on a middle-class quarterback contract.
34:19That's where I sit with it. I feel like you kind of, your tone has answered how you feel about the prospects of this.
34:26I know. I don't mean to put words in your mouth.
34:30No, you're right. I wish I could believe in it more because that second half of the 24 season was fun.
34:36I was ready to buy in. I wanted to see him take that step last year.
34:41And he took a small step. And if you're trying to make the optimistic case, this is it.
34:46They never were in a position last year where the pass catching spots were sorted because the moment that they understood how
34:53they wanted to use McMillan, Coker got hurt. And so then McMillan had to be in that very stationary role within the
34:59offense the entire year, having Coker and being able to mix and match those two.
35:04And then you add a guy like Jonathan Brooks to the mix.
35:08You have no yak on this team last year.
35:10You have no manufactured ability. Brooks should give you some of that.
35:14So there's a chance that even with the offensive line shuffling, which they were shuffling last year, that this is the best circumstances he's ever played in before.
35:22That that's how you would start making the case for why it can be better.
35:27I think I'm just in a place where I'm running out of hope about it looking significantly better than it's looked.
35:33Certainly with any consistent. I mean, he just hasn't put together stretches.
35:37It's just been very inconsistent from him. So up and down.
35:40I will say, you know, one thing we talked about on Tuesday, we only saw a drive with him, but Brad Enzik, I thought the offense looked good.
35:48So we'll see. That's another one of the mysteries of the season.
35:52Dave Canales' annual replay calling. And I thought it looked pretty damn good.
35:56Another instance of like, put the big guy in the slot that we love.
36:00Okay. That one's real though. He should be in the slot because he was incredible in there last year.
36:06He really is. Okay. You're next. What do you got?
36:09I want to know what is going to be the sneaky, terrible offense in the NFL this year.
36:14Okay. Because I think there are a lot of them.
36:17Well, the team that we're not talking about right now, it could be one of the obvious ones, but I think even
36:24the obvious offenses you, I'm sure you've done this this summer.
36:27Have you talked yourself into the Cardinals being better than we expect?
36:31No, everyone. No, I am staying away from this.
36:33Interesting. Cause they're in the UFC West. Yeah. They're probably, first of all, I don't believe in this defense at all.
36:40They're too many injuries. I don't mean the team.
36:42I don't mean the team. They could win three games.
36:45I'm talking about watchability on offense. Oh yeah. Well, I like Jacoby Brissett hilarious after the Carson Beck come hype.
36:51The whole thing game shows up, rolls in and is like, Hey, I'm a professional quarterback.
36:56I'm going to throw the best throw. You're going to see the entire preseason.
37:00But also like, yeah, the offensive line people slept on how hurt and horrible it was last year.
37:06I think they're going to be upgraded in a huge way.
37:09It's obviously a group of skilled players. That's very fun.
37:12I think there's possibility of Michael Fleur using Marvin Harrison Jr.
37:16in ways that actually note, maybe vault him to his star potential, but at least makes him a solid number one receiver.
37:22Yeah. This could be a good offense. So that's one.
37:25Yeah. Can you do that with the dolphins? No, they're going to be performing like a perverted way.
37:31Yes. Yes. But correct. The, in a football nerd, like perverted, twisted mindset.
37:34Oh, the offensive line and HN and what if Malik Willis is decent?
37:38Like, I think a lot of the offenses that were coming into the season being like, this is going to be trash.
37:45You can actually kind of make a reasonable argument for why I'm not talking about like top 20.
37:50I'm talking about the way we discussed the saints last year where it was like, man, this is going to be a train wreck.
37:58And then we get to week 14 and it's like, I kind of like watching it.
38:02I think there's going to be a few of those, but there's also going to be a team like last year's Raiders.
38:09Okay. So last year's Raiders. So that let's position it this way.
38:13What's the offense that we're, we're not scared enough about.
38:16I just dovetails with my next one. I'm nervous about the commanders, man.
38:20They're, I think they're a candidate for this. I wonder if the quarterback is too good for them to truly bottom out.
38:26I'm nervous. So they could get her again, but yeah.
38:29Commanders. I think are in this conversation. We talked about this.
38:32I think the Titans are in this conversation. There's a chance the Titans just bottom out.
38:37And here there are two things. They're competing voices in my head about the Titans bottoming out.
38:42The teams that do this are often the teams that are not from the Kubiak Shanahan world.
38:47And what I mean by that is I think when you have a running and pass game tied together and you use
38:54a ton of under center play action, it establishes a certain floor for your protection rules.
38:59Like you're only going to get so bad because you're not laying your tackles out to dry.
39:04The Titans are not going to be that sort of team.
39:07Yeah. The Titans are going to be like a gun.
39:10We're dropping back all the time. RPO team and the line talent is not good.
39:15I think their line coach is good. And so I think hopefully that is enough, but they're a candidate for this.
39:21I actually thought the line had some decent run blocking reps in the pre look.
39:26Okay. So it's just Titans off season. Their preseason has been really a rough watch and it's been a bummer because I
39:32think a lot of us went back and watch the second half of Cam Warren.
39:37We're really excited and they've got these new receivers and all that.
39:40And then preseason hit like an anvil, like a, like a dog.
39:44Oh God. And I said, after week one, let's give this is new operation cam.
39:48Everything's new, new play color, new receivers boards. Timing looked a little off.
39:52He was missing throws. I didn't talk about, um, I meant to, and I forgot to talk about this last week.
39:59Cause we saw a lot more of him against the Seahawks.
40:02This was a little bit more mixed for me, candidly, because a lot of what went wrong.
40:07This time wasn't cam Ward's fault. Actually there was, he actually made some throws that should have been caught.
40:13Um, he also missed some open opportunities. I really continuing to see that is disappointing.
40:17Cardinal Tate hasn't caught a freaking pass dude. Like what is happening here?
40:21That's the fourth overall pick. And I liked it and I'm, I am not, I am not hitting the panic button.
40:27It is. We have done this before. It's the preseason.
40:30But like, if you're Brian Dable, like make it happen.
40:33Right? Like what? I don't want to overreact too much, but this is the point of the discussion.
40:39There's going to be one of these teams. There's one of these teams every year.
40:43Two years ago, I would say the bears were that team where coming into the season.
40:48It was like, oh boy, look at the, look at the pass catchers, Caleb Williams.
40:53Let's do this. And then you watch it five weeks in and like, oh, this is a flaming disaster.
40:58Like they're just, there are certain, there is a certain team every year where you just kind of realize the offensive infrastructure
41:05is broken by virtue of how they're approaching it.
41:08I think the 2024 Seahawks were kind of like that.
41:11And last year's Raiders are a perfect example of this.
41:14Well, you're listening to the teams, your name, the through line is just like, who's the team with the F'd up offensive line that we're not acknowledging.
41:22That's it. It's the offensive line part of it.
41:25But I also think it's about infrastructure because I think you can have, it's the Seahawks again, the Seahawks going from 24
41:31to 25 are a great example of this. The Seahawks drafted Graze Abel.
41:35Great. Right. The Graze Abel is a good player.
41:38Other than that, it's a lot of the same guys.
41:41Full season from A. Lucas was a big difference for the 25 Seahawks.
41:45But I still think that what you're asking of the players, you're talking the year before, I think Charles Cross led the
41:51NFL in true pass sets, led the NFL. No, it's a shotgun drop back seven step drops every single time.
41:57Okay. And what you're asking of the line matters.
42:00Here's the thing that connects to what you're saying.
42:03Because again, you're talking about the 2024 Seahawks and the 2025 Raiders.
42:06Other than the fact that Geno Smith is the quarterback, both those teams.
42:10I'm fading college play callers forever after those two seasons.
42:13Grab, who was amazing for my beloved Washington Huskies.
42:16And then Chip Kelly. No, I'm not doing that again.
42:19So, you know, at least like the Titans have like Brian Daple.
42:23Yes, it's you're like, I think you make a really good point about how it's not going to help the line.
42:29But at least he's an NFL play caller. So I guess let's wrap here.
42:33Is there any team where you're like, we need to worry more about this offensive line though?
42:38And maybe we're not talking enough. We'll get to the commanders in a second.
42:42Is there anyone else where you're like, maybe this should be a bigger conversation?
42:47The Titans are a team that I would throw out there.
42:50A lot of the other offensive lines that I think are a little bit worrisome, like the Packers are a perfect example of this, right?
42:57The Packers offensive line is not a good group in terms of talent, but I have enough faith in the staff to
43:04just get passable play out of them. Again, I like the Titans line coach, but this stuff is about, is more about
43:11what it looks like systemically than it is about what the quality of the line coach is.
43:16Jags staring at me. I love them so much though, and I'm so high on them.
43:21And I like the play caller that I think it mitigates the fact that I have questions about the offensive line.
43:27I'm just looking at like teams that should be good.
43:30The Lions... The Patriots are a team like this for me, by the way.
43:34Patriots. That's the one. That's the one I would throw out.
43:37I pretend I do not see it when you think about some of these issues.
43:42I mean, like there's a really a world in which the Lions offensive line gives haywire that I feel like we're not acknowledging enough.
43:49I think it, there's enough to compensate for it.
43:52I don't think the brute bottom is going to fall off, but like there's a lot of questions in youth on that line.
43:59Oh, here's another one. I mean, everyone thinks this offense is going to suck, so it's not a good candidate.
44:05I kind of feel like people have slept on the attrition in Atlanta on the offensive line.
44:10Like everyone just thinks, oh, they're this elite zone blocking unit.
44:13It's like, they've got the loss players over the years.
44:16The guys have retired. Like it's... I don't think it's as much of a strength as these guys.
44:22I think four out of those five guys are okay.
44:25I think... Nuzel's passable. I think they're excited about the other three.
44:28Like the two guards and Matthews are fine. And I think Juwan Taylor can get you by.
44:33Like I don't... That's one I'm a little bit less worried about than some of the others.
44:38And Taylor can get you by. All right. We got to wrap here.
44:42So I'll do my last one. My last one, and I kind of hinted at this.
44:47Okay, so we've got these three play callers who are bringing similar offenses to the East Coast of the NFL.
44:53Calling them DMB. Doyle, Mannion, and Blau. It just occurred to me that DMB is Dave Matthews' band.
44:58As I said... Yes, yes it is. I can't think about that.
45:02Good thing. A lot of closet Dave Matthews' band.
45:05Not even closet Dave Matthews' band fans in the NFL coaching world.
45:08A lot of very outwardly Dave Matthews' bands in the NFL coaching world.
45:12Also, a lot of 30 and 40-something-year-old white guys who listen to this podcast.
45:16I'm sure you all were like, yeah. As soon as I said that.
45:20Anyways, okay. One of them is going to crash and burn, right?
45:24Like I just think... Has to. Has to, right?
45:27The odds. And I probably tipped my hand with the one that I'm worried about the most.
45:32And first of all, none of what I'm about to say is about the actual people.
45:37You've talked to them more than I have. I don't know.
45:40I genuinely feel like with coaches and play callers, we'll see.
45:43Like I try not to like come down on...
45:46It's not like an example like a Mike Medina.
45:49We know what we have with him. We don't know.
45:52We know their lineage. We know that they have like Ben Johnson connections or Green Bay connections or LeFleur and Shannon.
45:58Whatever. Whatever. We know what style of offenses they run.
46:01We don't know if they're going to be good at.
46:04We don't know if they're going to be good at using their personnel.
46:08We don't know if they're going to be good at in-game adjustments.
46:11We don't know how they're going to evolve over the course of the season.
46:16We don't know. But we do know the players that are on these teams.
46:20So I guess I ask you this. When you think about these offensive transformations and the quarterbacks and the players, is there
46:26one where you're just like, this might not work and it might be really bad?
46:31Philly is the first place I go. Just because I...
46:34More than Washington. I trust the quarterback more in Washington.
46:37Okay. Fair. Totally fair. I trust the quarterback more.
46:40I think that the circumstances in Washington could be way worse.
46:43But I also think the standard is different. The idea of this didn't work is much different in Washington than it is in Philly.
46:50If the Eagles are in a top eight offense with Sean Mannion, it probably didn't work.
46:55If Washington is the 23rd ranked offense with David Blau, it might have worked.
46:59Yeah. And so I think it's just, those are two very different things.
47:03Yes. The expectations are different. And also this, like, yeah.
47:06Well, you trust the quarterback more, but it's totally unprecedented for him.
47:10And this is... Yes. But I have some faith that he can adjust to it.
47:14Like, I just trust the quarterback more. But again, I think that the standard here matters.
47:19And, like, if the Eagles get to a place where they're the fifth best rushing offense in the league, but they're the
47:2618th best passing offense again, I don't think that's a good place for you to have landed.
47:31I think that's not what you're trying to do here.
47:34Doyle is the one I feel best about. Yes.
47:36And because Lamar of these three quarterbacks is the one we have seen do this type, run this type of offense.
47:43Extremely well. The best in the NFL, in fact, by many statistics.
47:46I also think that they have the... I feel comfortable with the line in this scheme.
47:51I know center is the question mark, but I'm still a little bit unclear about the deployment of personnel and, like, what
47:58they're going to live in and what it's going to look like.
48:01But I think they've got enough pieces where they can figure it out.
48:05But the quarterback gives me a comfort level there just because of...
48:09I mean, he is such a good fit for an under center throwing over the middle of the field.
48:15Like, he is extremely good at those things. So we can throw that one out.
48:19If that one crashes and burns, I think it'll be due to offensive line injuries.
48:24And perhaps, I will throw this out, the thing if I'm a Ravens fan that would keep me up at night, what
48:30if the version of Lamar we saw last year as it pertains to athleticism and taking sacks is closer to the version
48:37going forward than the one we saw? A real possibility.
48:40He's 29 years old. I don't want to disregard that that's...
48:43I don't want to, like, just be pat and be like, that was not.
48:47That was fake. He's going to be back to...
48:50He's 29. You know, it could happen. But let's set that one aside and focus on, you know, Philadelphia versus Washington.
48:56I think my concern with Washington, Robert, is that they'll just give it up.
49:01That they'll be like, eh, this isn't working. The line is injuries.
49:04We don't have a center. We no longer have a left tackle.
49:08And it's not as efficient. And it is a lot more efficient when we just play fast and put our quarterback in
49:14the gun and lean on him to run a lot.
49:17And, like, does it just seem more likely that they might abandon ship a little bit earlier on?
49:23Or do you think that they're putt committed to making this work?
49:26I think they're committed to making it work, but I also just think the circumstances are different.
49:32David Blau, I think this offense will share the most DNA, if you're looking around the league, with Ben Johnson's ideas.
49:38David Blau has never coached under Ben Johnson. Yeah.
49:41He was on the team. Everybody keeps saying that.
49:43I know. It's so funny. Thank you for saying that.
49:46Because everyone... I've got to show me some people like, and he learned under Ben Johnson.
49:51I'm like, excuse me. I remember him on the death chart.
49:54And he's coached for two years, and the only place he's coached is in Washington.
49:59That Thanksgiving Day game that haunts me. I just...
50:02That's the one where... Like, Sean Mannion at least spent a year on the staff with Matt LaFleur.
50:07Like, I mean, he's been in those rooms. He's been part of the plan.
50:11And so, both of them, though, this is such an accelerated process for both of those guys.
50:16I mean, they've barely been NFL coaches, and now they're both offensive coordinators.
50:20Like, the chance that both of those hit, I think are just...
50:24It's remote. One of them is going to go worse than we want it to.
50:28The thing I think I'm interested in Philly... I talked about Washington and the possibility that they might abandon ship there in
50:35terms of the scheme change is because the Eagles' defense is so good, they kind of spot them some games.
50:41So, I wonder if there might be a little bit more patience there if the offense is a bit up and down.
50:48Philly fans, known for their patience. Philly fans, early in the season, as they start to figure things out.
50:53I admit I'm a little bit discouraged by, like, the camp reports over the last two weeks and probably how things went
51:00against the Patriots and all of that. I will say, my optimism there is that Mannion coming from Green Bay, I view
51:07as, like, kind of the correct marriage of worlds a little bit.
51:10Which is to say, like, the LeFleur interpretation of the Shanahan offense and what we've seen in particular over the last years
51:17with both Jordan Love and Malik Willis. The way they would get to play action from different formations, the run game, the
51:23parts of the field the quarterback was throwing to.
51:26It's less of a wild difference. You know what I mean?
51:29Like, there's some shared DNA there that I think, and the fact that they took the, specifically took a coach from that team.
51:36If you're going to take a team from any of the Shanahan tree teams, that is the one, if I'm a Philadelphia
51:43Eagles, the organization that I want a play caller from for my quarterback.
51:47So, I like that they did that. I think that makes perfect sense.
51:51I think there are a lot of different things you're pointing to.
51:54The amount of gun we saw from the Packers last year, they were a more gun-heavy team than they had been previously under LeFleur.
52:01Even the areas of the field, like, they were, I think they led the league in the percentage of outbreaking routes, according
52:08to NextGen, of any team in football last year.
52:11I think that went to Jalen Hurts' strengths. And so, I think that it is a good marriage.
52:16But it's just one of those things where, again, it's a first-time play caller who's been a coach for, like, two years.
52:23I want to believe in it because I'm impressed by Sean Mannion.
52:26And I think that he's a worthwhile consideration in somebody that can kind of turn that thing around.
52:32But I'm with you in that one of these guys is not going to be as good as that team wants him to be.
52:39And I probably would pick between Mannion and Blau.
52:42I have more faith in Doyle. Maybe that's just me being Ben Johnson tree-pilled at this point.
52:47But I do believe in Declan Doyle. I just think maybe the quarterback's going to make him look good.
52:53Like, even if it's just... All right, your last one.
52:56Sorry, I've gone a little bit long. No, it's okay.
52:59My last one, speaking of Ben Johnson, pick the NFC North for me.
53:02Just do it. I can't remember a situation. I was trying to think back to, like, analogous spots over the last few years.
53:09Maybe the AFC North a couple years ago, where on August 25th, I can sit here and make a real case.
53:16Not even a, oh, you know, I'll cosplay and act like I believe that.
53:20I can make a real case for all four teams to win the division.
53:24Easily. It wouldn't even be hard. Yeah. And that's a nightmare.
53:27Okay. So it's easy to pick the Lions because of the schedule.
53:31Yes. When you... Yes. Not only, you know, I was looking at the advanced matches and I was like, damn, that's easy.
53:38When you sit down and just look at the games and start reading the opponents, it is very easy to get to
53:4412 plus wins with this team in a hurry.
53:47So I'm going to chicken out and say the Lions are my pick to win.
53:51But if the question is who's the best team in the NFC North, it's...
53:56I mean, I about had a brain aneurysm trying to do this on my NFC North preview.
54:01Let's talk it out. I think you can easily do the conditions.
54:04Okay. If Micah Parsons comes back and looks... For the Packers, if Micah Parsons looks like Micah Parsons last year or him
54:11any year, I can get there with Green Bay.
54:14If Kyler Murray is 2024 Kyler Murray, I get there easily with Minnesota.
54:18If... I was going to say if, like, Caleb Williams' success rate climbs to, like, 20th.
54:22But if... What would it... Let me ask you.
54:25You follow this team really closely. What would be the Bears' trigger point for you feeling comfortable picking the Bears?
54:31Like, if you knew it right now. They hit their ceiling offensively.
54:35Or they, like, approach their ceiling offensively. I think that...
54:38It's not a defense thing. You're just like... No, no, no, no.
54:41I think the defense is... You're holding on for dear life for them to think be the 18th, 20th best defense in the league.
54:49The entire argument about the defense being better is that the secondary would be healthier.
54:53It's not. It's already not. And so I'm worried about that.
54:56I do think there is a path for them to just be...
55:00I think there's a path for them to be the best offense in the league.
55:04Like, I think that's real. Like, they can do that.
55:07And so if they do that, I think that's where the argument starts.
55:11Or, like, their first or second. They're in that general tier.
55:15Hmm. And then for Detroit, I think if the offensive line works out, this is a top five offense.
55:20You can certainly get there. And maybe if, on top of that, you would probably need, like, a Lynn McNeil or, like,
55:27someone other than Aiden Hutchinson to become, like, a real difference maker up front.
55:31Or, you know, Brian Branch to come back and look like Brian Branch early in the season is a pretty big deal.
55:38If Lee McNeil looks like a Lee McNeil did before he got hurt, and you have Aiden Hutchinson already, and Tylek Williams
55:44takes a small step forward, like, I think I can get there.
55:48But the Lions case is mostly offense-based. There's a chance the Lions are the highest scoring offense in the league.
55:54Yeah. All three of those teams, the Lions, the Packers, and the Bears, I think a big argument for why it can
56:01happen, why they would underplay the division, is that they hit something close to their offensive ceiling, which for all of them,
56:07I think is, like, a top three offense. I have that a blowback.
56:11I get sometimes blowback for being a little bit too Packers forward.
56:15But on, I think it was Nate's pod, I was like, if Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft are healthy for most of
56:21the season, this is a top five offense. People are like, no, I'm like, it's literally been the best offense in the
56:28NFL when Christian Watson has been on the field.
56:31This is not a crazy premise. So if you could tell me- The line is the concern, right?
56:36The line is the concern with Green Bay. Are they worse than last year?
56:40That's been my thought the entire offseason. I've had to hear it from Derek and Dave about the offensive line on the Packers.
56:47I don't know if they're any worse. And they were really good last year before the pass catchers got hurt.
56:53So I'm with you on that. And I think that Romeo Dobbs is a nice player.
56:58I really like Romeo Dobbs. There is a chance with Reed, Golden, and Watson all healthy that this team has more juice
57:05in the pass catching spots when you throw Kraft in there than it ever has during the LeFleur era.
57:10I mean, obviously, Devontae is an entirely different beast.
57:13But in the new LeFleur era, in the post-Devontae pass catching world, I think there is a chance that this is the
57:20group that feels the scariest by the end of the year.
57:23Golden's looked really sick at the preseason. Okay. So talking through all those various contingencies, I find myself still leaning Lions or Packers.
57:30Not even separate. The Lions are picked to the win division.
57:33We're talking about who's the best team in the division.
57:36I feel like the Packers are more likely to finish with an above average defense because of Micah Parsons to our conversation earlier.
57:43So I'll probably go Packers, but it won't be until the end of the year.
57:48So I added like 20. I don't want to answer.
57:51Don't make me answer. I mean, give me like two weeks.
57:54There's no answer. We won't know week one. We won't know for a while.
57:58We won't know how good Green Bay is until like November.
58:01But it's true. Their best player is not playing for them.
58:05So it's, can Jonathan Gannon survive? I've been saying this often.
58:08Can he survive those first six-ish weeks or so?
58:11What you got, man? Reach deep into your bag.
58:13Pull out all that funky Arizona shit. You got to go weird.
58:17You get so weird. So I think Detroit, but also Detroit will be better when Brian Branch comes back.
58:23So I think like this is one where huge cop out.
58:26We won't know until November. So we'll revisit it then.
58:29I think I'll know by November. I just, I will refuse to pick the division before the season starts.
58:35Oh, just so somebody else can pick it for me.
58:38You have to do it. Just pick Detroit because of schedule.
58:41I gave you the easy answer. That's probably what I will do.
58:45I will take the coward's way out. It's, it's just true.
58:48Look at this schedule. It's so easy. That's Robert Mays, who is immersed in his division previews over at the athletic NFL show.
58:55You guys can check that out wherever you get your paws.
58:58I'm sure many of you already do. And thank you so much for joining me, bud.
59:03This was really fun. I don't know. I think I feel better about the Texans offense.
59:08You made me feel better about that. You made me feel worse about Bryce.
59:12You made me feel better about the, the, the, I feel like the, the Cowboys defense.
59:17Both of us are kind of on that chip.
59:20As long as you were already on it. Cause I don't want you to pin that on me.
59:25All right. That's fine. As long as you were already on it.
59:29I feel bad. I feel bad about how much I believe in the Cowboys defense.
59:33If I put that onto somebody else, I don't think I could live with that.
59:38Barham teleporting into the backfield was my breaking point.
59:40We were both picking the lions, Detroit lions to win the NFC North, but with zero conviction about the teams.
59:46All right. So I'm gonna take a break, come back and I'm gonna talk some fantasy football with fantasy footballers and try
59:53to work through some of the other things that are keeping me up at night.
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62:04All right. We're the back where we are back for the second half of our football therapy podcast.
62:10And I am joined for the first time ever.
62:12Extremely exciting. That's probably why I got nervous and bungled my pronunciation at the beginning by the incredibly popular and successful and excellent fantasy footballers podcast.
62:20Guys, the three of you, welcome to the show.
62:23Thank you so much. We're thrilled to be here.
62:25It is a football time. I wasn't sure if you would all answer at the same time or answer at the same time.
62:32The premise of this is actually pretty similar to what I did in the first half with Robert Mays, which is trying
62:39to work through like we're obviously very close to the football season and fantasy drafts are happening right now.
62:45And I wanted to talk about like the names that are just keeping us up at night because we just can't decide.
62:51Right. Like we did that. We talked about some of the football players and teams and whatnot in their first half.
62:58I actually haven't had either of my drafts. So I'm excited to do this with you guys.
63:03I have the ESPN draft next week. I have pick one, one, which I feel I've never had pick one, one.
63:09Oh, congrats. This is the best. Yeah, it really is.
63:12That's how I feel. Jameer gets welcome to my family.
63:15My new son. You got it right. I just don't have to think about it.
63:20It's so great. But after that, obviously it gets a little bit more stressful.
63:24So I asked each of you guys to come up with a name that like you individually are just like sweating.
63:30You don't know. You don't know how to feel.
63:33You gave me some awesome names. Some of the names you gave me are ones that I am also sweating.
63:39So I'm excited to talk about them. I'll go first with one of mine and then I'll just prompt you guys to give me yours.
63:46I'm going to start at the quarterback position here.
63:49I've actually had two quarterbacks in mind. And then I decided I just can't do Jaden Daniels.
63:54So we're not even going to do that because I saw a post today from Nikki Jabavala who covers the commanders that
64:01says this is like the worst commanders offensive line she's ever seen.
64:04And I was like, I'm good. Yeah, not great.
64:07The name that I do want to talk to you about is the one that I feel a little bit more conflicted
64:14about in terms of a premium pick for a quarterback.
64:17And that is one Jalen hurts. Um, Jalen hurts drafters last year.
64:20As you guys know all too well, got pretty burned because he went so high, uh, and finished ninth quarterbacks, career lows
64:27and rushing yards, rushing first downs, rushing touchdowns. If you take back out quarterback sneaks, he had 67 rushing attempts, which is
64:33a career low and he's in an entirely new offense.
64:36And so I, I think for me, a lot of my hesitation here is like not knowing how to feel about this
64:43new Eagles offense because it was so dismal last year and it's going to be so different.
64:48So Jason, why don't we start with you? How do you feel about Jalen hurts as a premium quarterback?
64:54Right? Because obviously if it's late, great. Yeah. I would say, I would say I'm more in on hurts than out.
65:00I think Petulo, uh, was not my favorite and I'm a big Sean Mannion fan.
65:05You look at the tush perch isn't going away and he's usually been up in the 12, 13, 15 rushing touchdowns because of that.
65:12He had eight rushing touchdowns last year. And so while, while I don't think he is going to be, you know, the
65:19quarterback one overall, he's the cheapest he has ever been in his entire, you know, post his breakout career.
65:24You've never been able to get him where he's going in a draft right now.
65:29You can let him fall to you often, usually on average in the sixth round.
65:33And that's, that's a value for someone who can easily replicate 15 rushing touchdowns.
65:37Um, and I also, I believe in Sean Mannion.
65:40I think that the system will be better. It hurts to lose AJ Brown, but they added, you know, Makai Lemon.
65:46I think that that is, uh, Don Tavian Wicks.
65:49Good sir. Yeah. And, and Devante Smith to me is fully capable of stepping up as a wider screen one.
65:55So I find myself more in than out on hurts this year.
65:59Yeah. I mean, he, he, he just makes me nervous, but for all the reasons that you stated at the top, it's
66:05just, um, you've always had the rushing baseline. At a level where he could kind of ebb and flow from a passer perspective.
66:12So if he does what you, you know, if he repeats and they keep the rushing attempts lower and in the yardages
66:19and up in the 500 to 800 range, I, I'm more nervous about that.
66:23But you know, the price in fantasy drafts, at least right now is accommodating that.
66:28Yeah, I agree. It's a, it's the price that makes him interesting of.
66:32Yeah. There, there almost certainly will be, there's going to be a late round guy or two that will make the jump
66:38and they'll be in the, you know, the top six at the end of the year.
66:43And we'll be like, Oh, should have seen that, that one happening, but it's in the game of probability, a quarterback who does what Jalen hurts does.
66:51He's most likely going to end up being very productive for fantasy football.
66:55All right. I'm going to put you all on the spot and you don't just one word answers deck or hurts.
67:01Cause I, I think it's a really interesting debate, right?
67:04Cause the cowboys offense is going to be so sick, but then hurts obviously the rushing and for all the reasons.
67:11So DAC or hurts, if you were choosing between the two of them, who would you take?
67:16DAC, DAC, DAC. All right. Dang. Okay. We're very, we're, we're a very pro, uh, DAC show of, you gotta be careful saying that one.
67:23The, uh, like he just, he doesn't get respect or it doesn't get respect from NFL fans.
67:28He doesn't get respect from fantasy football fans. He literally, if he is healthy, he's a, he's a quarterback one historically, he,
67:35as long as he plays, he's awesome. And we like bad defenses.
67:39Oh yeah. And Dallas, whether, you know, Caleb downs, maybe it gets better, but not to the Philly level.
67:44So you want to see the point accumulation, George and CD is just, it's that's disgusting.
67:49Yeah. Right. And like the answer to like George or CD might just be DAC.
67:54Right. Um, okay. Uh, Andy, you go first. Give us your guy.
67:57Yeah. I think Marvin Harrison is one of the most confusing players possible because from a productivity standpoint, he's somehow turned, you
68:04know, two decent, not great years into an apology tour with the expectations, with the draft capital, with his famous father.
68:10And so you look at the situation in Arizona.
68:13I like LaFleur coming in. I like the fact that when Brissette was the quarterback.
68:17Yeah. Trey McBride is like all worldly. Marvin Harrison, while he was on the field with Wilson and McBride and Brissette had the highest target share of everybody.
68:26So I've got these reasons to believe that if we can just get one season where you can string some games together, you talk about a bad defense.
68:34Arizona has done nothing to improve upon being terrible.
68:37So really anything. No, it's just terrible everywhere. Just, yeah, we're all, you know, we're in Arizona.
68:42So we, we, we hate what they do to our lives.
68:45So we'll see our history. But, but ultimately it's like, this team should be passing the ball a ton, coming back a ton.
68:52Everything in camp has been positive. So I find myself so like, you don't want to get to year three and still
68:59wonder if a guy is elite, but you have to wonder about Marv.
69:03I just find him to be the most, like, like he's not even expensive in fantasy drafts to see his name as far back as it is.
69:11And you're still like, I'm just confused. Like, do I, can I believe?
69:15I don't know. I still believe in his talent as a player.
69:18And I think LeFleur is going to use him in ways maybe where he can be a little bit more productive.
69:25I mean, the seeing him on that crosser and the touchdown with Brissette and free season, I was like, oh, you're pulling me back.
69:32You're pulling me back. You're tantalizing. The things that make me nervous.
69:35So a few years ago on my dynasty team, I picked a little known tight end named Trey McBride.
69:41And some are saying it's the greatest move ever made in the history of my dynasty.
69:46So basically how he Roseman, you know, when it comes to, I took Fanta Jr.
69:50Last year. So that makes me nervous. The other thing that makes me nervous guys and the rest of you can tell
69:57me is Michael Wilson weeks nine through 18 was third in receiving yards per game.
70:02I kind of think he's one of the more slept on like underrated receivers in the NFL.
70:07And I actually do worry between the two of them.
70:10Who's going to be the number one in terms of the receivers.
70:13It's hard to not look at the film and say that Michael Wilson was a better on the field receiver than Harrison was last year.
70:21Route running, you know, high pointing the ball, the drops, the hands.
70:24Yeah. I mean, so that, I mean, that's a fair point.
70:28What do you guys think? Yeah. I, I, I believe that he might be the better wide receiver.
70:33I don't believe that he will be the wide receiver one in targets.
70:37They're going to work Marv in. And I think what, what happened in the pick, redeem the pick.
70:42Yeah. If you look at the games where, where Michael Wilson was great, it was really without Marv even later in the
70:49season when Marv came back after Michael Wilson's breakout, it went back to Marv as the primary target because it was the role in the offense.
70:57And I think the role is primary going to be Marv.
71:00It's just probably nice for the Cardinals to have Michael Wilson, but he doesn't scare me too much about Marv.
71:06Marv is the only one that scares me about Marv.
71:09Like, are you actually good enough? Yeah. All right.
71:12Uh, uh, Mike, who's your first pick here? So I want to talk about Justin Jefferson, uh, because it turns out he's
71:18not invincible to, uh, to bad quarterback play. Uh, the, he's still like the fantasy drafters are, we're, we're going right back in.
71:25We're going, you know, head in the sand first round, Justin Jefferson, Kyler Murray is going to fix everything.
71:31Well, we can tell you in Arizona, Oh boy.
71:34We didn't want Kyler Murray here. Like it was this local angle.
71:37It was so bizarre to me of Kyler Murray is locally, not really, uh, supported, not cared for.
71:43We were done with it because of watching him play football nationally.
71:46People didn't really like Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray gets cut.
71:49What world is that all about? How do you go from nationally, a national disgrace to Holy crap, we could get Kyler
71:56Murray on the Minnesota Vikings and everything will be fixed.
71:59Now I very much believe in Kevin O'Connell. JJ McCarthy is honestly the only quarterback we've ever seen play for Kevin O'Connell.
72:06That did not give us good fantasy football stats.
72:08Uh, so I do think that O'Connell is a great coach and might be able to fix it, but it's with your
72:15first round pick a player that was sub 10 points a game last year for fantasy football.
72:20And it may be more of the same for him.
72:23Like that's a very scary proposition. It's not a question of Jefferson's talent.
72:27He's still, you can, you want to argue he's the best wide receiver in football.
72:31Okay. I'm, I would never stop anyone from doing that, but you need a quarterback who can actually get him the ball.
72:38You know, we had more stuff of like Kyler Murray admitting to O'Connell's like, I can't see over the offensive line.
72:44We're like, Oh boy, here we go again. So I'm, I'm freaked out of the idea of spending my first on Jefferson.
72:51Uh, first of all address, I'll defend the national media here.
72:54Um, he's never had a friend who dated or was married to a woman who sucks so much that the next woman, everyone like overdid it.
73:02And they're like, I think there's a little bit of that going on.
73:06Um, like just a stat that I posted about Jefferson.
73:09Um, JJ McCarthy had a 28% off target rate throwing to Jefferson, which was the second highest of any quarterback throwing to any receiver in the NFL.
73:17If Kyler can just bring that down. Just a little bit.
73:20He can, he can, he will. My hesitation. You're going to bet your first rounder that he can.
73:26I think you're, you're, it's a good pick for you for the, cause I, I would be nervous about the value.
73:32I think with Kyler and you guys, again, you saw this firsthand.
73:36I'm not sure the deep ball is going to come back, right?
73:39Like it was so absent and so off target, uh, his last few years in Arizona.
73:44And that to me does cap to some degree, the production you're going to get out of Jefferson.
73:50Yeah. It's a little nerve wracking. It's, I mean, we have, you know, you can go to look at Deandre Hopkins in 2015 was 1500 yards.
73:57It plummets to 950 yards. And at that time, I remember playing fantasy football going, Oh man, I guess that was really fun with Hopkins.
74:05Cause now it's, it's over. Yeah. And then of course they get more, they get better quarterback play and Hopkins bounces back
74:11to being one of the all-time great wide receivers.
74:14So it's not that it can't happen. It's just betting your first round pick when guys right after Jefferson, you feel very
74:21confident that they're going to be awesome for fantasy.
74:24Who's right after him? Right now. Uh, ADP. Well, I like, I mean, I'll Kenneth Walker.
74:28I mean, if you want me to start talking about Kenneth Walker, I don't think we have time.
74:34I love, I want all of the Kenneth Walker.
74:36Oh, now we're talking. All right. Speaking of the chiefs, Jason, you, you have a chief that I do want to, I really want to talk about.
74:45Yeah. It makes sense that you would want to talk about this player.
74:48Cause you said you're drafting first, which means, you know, you're at that two, three turn where rushy rice is going to need to be thought about.
74:57Um, this is a player with obvious question marks, right?
75:00You got off the field issues. It looks like the suspension is not going to have it.
75:05So the, okay, whatever. He was already suspended, but he's also not looked great in the film right now, coming out of the knee injury in jail.
75:13It's like, is he back to being able to be a dominant force on the field?
75:18We don't know. But on the other side, he was never like, he's not a burner.
75:22He wasn't, you know, winning 30 yards down the field.
75:25What he was doing was just being in the right place at the right time for Patrick Mahomes, who now is not
75:32going to scramble as much coming off of his knee injury.
75:35I think what rushy rice does well, he should be able to do well.
75:40And you look at it on a per game basis.
75:43It's crazy. I mean, he was, he was, he was, 15 and a half fantasy points per game in half PPR last year.
75:49And then for context, I'm in Ross St. Brown was 15.6.
75:53He was the wide receiver five in points per game.
75:56So if you're telling me you start with Gibbs and you can get someone who can realistically be the wide receiver five, that's so tantalizing.
76:03But also, do you really want to have rushy rice on your team?
76:07You know, on him as your wide receiver one.
76:10So I, whenever I'm in a draft at that area, I look at his name for, I'm not too long.
76:16And it's just like, I don't know. I don't know if I'm trusted or not.
76:20I think that's cool. Yeah. Just crazy stat. I just was, when you threw this out, I remember his points, his per game stats were crazy, right?
76:28Because he missed a chunk of the season. Yeah.
76:31So when was she rice played last year? He was in targets per route run.
76:36He was behind only Puka Nakua and Jackson Smith and Jigba.
76:39That is how often Patrick Mahomes went to him, which is 32%, which is crazy.
76:44He wasn't anyone guys. They didn't anyone. So how, like, what is, other than the offense being a little bit more run-y than the run-y?
76:51Yeah. It really does seem like it should work.
76:54And Kenneth Walker should help him. I mean, now you've got to watch out for the run game.
76:59And I know that Cyrus Allen, the rookie, has had some nice publicity, but that is not, Cyrus Allen is not coming
77:06in as a late-rounded rookie usurping the number one wide receiver role.
77:09So it should work. It really should work. A concern I have is he, while you're not saying, oh, he just blows
77:16the doors off like combine testing, he's not a refined prototypical wide receiver.
77:20You know, like, he's not going to be Keenan Allen out there where it's like, oh, he's lost three steps.
77:26It doesn't matter because his routes, he's such a tactician out there.
77:29He has to have athleticism in terms of yards after the catch to make any kind of noise.
77:35So if Rice has lost a step, I think it's a huge problem.
77:39Yeah. A big real football problem for the kids.
77:41Diddy Chiefs. Yeah. Who do they have? I think I'm still comfortable with him because he's the volume piece of it.
77:48Okay. My second pick here in the corner here.
77:51This isn't just about the injury. But Ashton Gentry, I just...
77:54Yeah. So, you know, first of all, the injury, contrary to the prayer circle, he seems to be surviving.
78:00But it's... I don't even know if it's high or low.
78:03It seems like maybe we'll call it a mid-ankle injury.
78:06But we don't... So we don't know exactly how long to be out.
78:10So that's obviously a factor. But I want to talk about the other factors here, one of which is I don't understand
78:16why everyone's suddenly comfortable with this Raiders offensive line.
78:19I know that they signed Linderbaum and Colton Miller will be healthy.
78:23But the rest of it is like kind of the same.
78:26And it was the worst offensive line in football.
78:29The right side of it. Like, DJ Glaze, we're doing that again.
78:32And then the other thing. And you guys need to tell me if this is just way too much recency bias.
78:39Mike Washington looked nice. So... Ooh. I'm not... I am not afraid of Mike Washington at all with Gentry.
78:44And I do think that the offensive line is improved going from Pete Carroll and Sons managing that offensive line to...
78:51Yeah. And Clint Kubiak coming in. I was pretty excited about him.
78:54But where he's going in drafts is like there are a handful of running backs.
78:59I feel so much more confident in going behind him.
79:02I'm big on Omari and Hampton. Kenneth Walker seems...
79:04You know, why not go with good offenses? Chase Brown, middle of the second round, as opposed to taking someone you don't expect a ton of.
79:12He's going to appoints. He's currently maybe missing week one.
79:15And, you know, teams... Running backs on teams that win fewer than seven and a half games, they just don't usually turn out well.
79:22It's a tough bet when you don't have a winning team.
79:26And they're going to go through, likely, the quarterback transition at some point during the course of the year.
79:31And that throws some more variables into the mix.
79:34I mean, I actually expected Gentry's draft price to be lower than what it is.
79:39So I think that it's kind of moved to the point where, like, in the offseason, at the very beginning, I was
79:45like, oh, maybe he's a really good target. It's just too high for me.
79:49Ken Walker is behind him. So I agree. I think it's a little bit nerve-wracking.
79:54And it's a tough bet. You know, him and A-Chan, right?
79:57Like A-Chan and the Miami offense. Like, I think A-Chan is a otherworldly talent.
80:01But when a bad team says we're going to run the ball a bunch...
80:06I mean, I can go back to, like... Yeah, Hugh Jackson and the Cleveland Browns.
80:10Hugh Jackson with Isaiah Crowell long ago going, oh, we're just going to run him into the ground.
80:16And then when it's 27-3 at halftime... Oh, it's third and long again.
80:20You don't get to do it. I know, yeah.
80:22And I think focusing on the transition from Kirk Cousins to Mendoza, you have to focus on that a bit more.
80:29Teams with rookie quarterbacks, they just don't score as much as other teams.
80:32This is statistical truth. Even great running backs, when they have a rookie quarterback, they tend to have...
80:38You see a dip in production. And that will happen at the time you want your fantasy football team to be the strongest that it could possibly.
80:46When you're getting into making your playoff run, and then all of a sudden you're like, oh, crap.
80:51Week 12. Here comes Mendoza. Yeah. What does that do?
80:54And you're going to have to... Then you're in week 12 going, do I keep riding out with Ashton Gentry?
81:00Maybe he's been great to that point. The whole thing is terrifying to me.
81:05The receiving group, they're going to face so many stacked boxes and single-high coverage because who's really scaring you on the perimeter?
81:11All right, good. You know what? I don't feel conflicted anymore.
81:14I'm out. I'm out. I'm in on. And the injury now.
81:18Yes. And the injury now, right on top of that.
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83:17Go to Shopify.com slash network. Shopify.com slash network. Okay, let's go around the horn again.
83:21Andy, your second pick. Yeah, we haven't actually talked about this guy a bunch on the show, but I thought it'd be good to talk about here.
83:29It's just like, who is Justin Herbert? Like, what does he represent for fantasy football?
83:34You know, last year he had a great week.
83:37He asks himself this question a lot, too. He might ask himself, who are the chargers, right?
83:42We always have great expectations for the team, and we also have plenty of narratives and plenty of excuses for Herbert over
83:48the years, from his own injuries to offensive line, you know, deterioration.
83:52And so, you know, on paper, I think they're favored to win the division.
83:56You've got Mike McDaniel coming in, should bring his scheme and ideas.
84:00You've got great pass catchers in McConkie, and you've got Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris coming along, and Omari and Hampton's healthy.
84:06So, on the surface, you're like, I see all the puzzle pieces working together, but I haven't seen a lot of fantasy
84:13managers kind of, like, embrace Herbert as part of that equation.
84:16As going to be a beneficiary of that. I think they should.
84:20So, my take is, first of all, the offensive line is already deteriorating again.
84:24Yeah, we're doing it again. You know, have we considered the possibility it's just a haunted franchise?
84:29I think that's the most likely. It feels that way, it really does.
84:33Because they're near the substation too, right? Too close.
84:36I mean, whatever they've got might be worse. But here's the thing.
84:39I think from a fantasy perspective, I think value to me, it's fine.
84:43Like, I would not, obviously. So, he's kind of what?
84:46He's probably like QB 10 to 12-ish. He's probably very late, yeah.
84:50Yeah. So, like, if we're comparing him to, let's talk about comps, right?
84:54Would you rather have Herbert or Trevor Lawrence, who's in another offense that I'm really excited about.
84:59Like, between the two of them. Yeah, I'd take Lawrence.
85:02Really? And Lawrence is going behind him in average draft position.
85:05Interesting. Right next to him is Dak. And that's where, give me Dak for sure.
85:10I want the bad defense. The point for Herbert, I would say, is Mike McDaniel managed to convince the world that Tua was a good quarterback.
85:18To the point of Tua got the bag of money.
85:21Led the NFL in passing yards. And it's like, how?
85:24Okay. I know he's had some health problems. But it's like, how do you go from Tua being a true franchise quarterback making bajillions of dollars to now?
85:32Like, he's literally, he's playing himself out of a job in Atlanta.
85:36Tua just lost a quarterback competition when the other quarterback didn't play.
85:39Yeah, that's exactly what we're saying. Yeah. It's like, so, that would be, that would be like a checkmark of, if anyone
85:46could turn it around for Herbert, it would be Mike McDaniel.
85:49I like him less than Dak. Lawrence, I'm going to, I'm really high on the Jags offense this year, but I might go Herbert there.
85:57All right. Mike, who's yours? Second one. So, I want to talk about Josh Jacobs, running back of the Green Bay Packers,
86:03who, I mean, we just had more news break about, this has been an off-season situation of Josh Jacobs is facing allegations that are pretty disgusting and gross.
86:12And to this point, nothing has happened. And, like, the case kind of went silent.
86:16And now things are being brought back up of, well, the team is even talking out loud of, like, yeah, we are,
86:23we've made some preparations just in case Josh Jacobs gets suspended.
86:26And, like, that's just one side of the story.
86:29Then the other one is, Josh Jacobs was scoring so many touchdowns.
86:32He was awesome for fantasy football over the first half of the year.
86:36But the truth is, he's older. You know, he is, he's, where are we?
86:40We're at 28 and a half. So, for most running backs, he is on the running back age cliff of when things really start to fall apart.
86:49And we know that when running backs, when it falls apart, it's done.
86:52Like, there's, there's not a, I age gracefully. When it's done, it's done.
86:56It's a cruel part of the NFL. And he was not that efficient last year.
87:01And I'm not sure that the Green Bay Packers are going to want to have the whole entire season, the identity of
87:08the team continue to be Josh Jacobs the way it was last year.
87:11I think it shifts more onto the back of Jordan Love, who I like as a quarterback.
87:17And on top of that, their third rounder from a couple years ago is maybe finally healthy.
87:22We'll see if Marshawn Lloyd can stick it out.
87:24But I believe in the talent of Marshawn Lloyd that he can come in and take more work, even if Jacobs is healthy and not suspended.
87:32But he just, he freaks me out a bit where he's going in drafts.
87:36It's tough because he was, he was truly awesome for fantasy to start.
87:40Before, and to start, it was like the majority of the season.
87:44He got injured in week 11. And to that point, he was the running back five.
87:49He was on pace for like 20 rushing touchdowns and was awesome.
87:52So it's really tough. You look at where he is in a draft and he's a perfect one for this, where it's like, I need therapy.
88:00I don't know. Yeah, I'm totally fine letting him go.
88:03But I can see how it's like, oh, that was so dumb.
88:07Who are his comps? Who are the backs being taken around him?
88:10So right around Josh Jacobs. It's probably third round right now.
88:14Right around Josh Jacobs afterwards, what I'm seeing, or right around it would be Kyron.
88:18Oh, please. Jeremy DeLove, Brees Hall, Javante. Yeah, all of those backs that would take over Jacobs for sure.
88:24Yeah, they aren't carrying the legal risk. So that is definitely.
88:27Well, there's that. But also like, the Packers offense and like from a fantasy perspective is always tricky for me for backs
88:34because I think they run the ball way too much and they're inefficient at it.
88:38And this Packers offensive line has major question marks, but they also run the ball way too much.
88:44Yeah. And Jordan looks really good. So you're in position to score.
88:47You're talking about the touchdowns, right? So like you kind of like the football perspective, you don't love it.
88:53Fantasy. There's definitely potential there. But I think what you said about Lloyd is like, I have really liked what I've seen
89:00from him or in the off season, the preseason.
89:02And I do think everything going on with Josh Jacobs, this feels like a stay away from me.
89:08Yeah. All right, Jason. All right. My, my last guy I need therapy for is Travion Henderson.
89:13Perfect one. Perfect. I think you do. I, yeah, I mean, I really do.
89:17Andy and I, we don't, we don't get in fights as people.
89:21We have been fighting about Travo versus Ramondre Stevenson.
89:23And it's so tough because you can't accident your way to 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, especially when you
89:30really didn't get to play for the first couple of weeks.
89:33This is a high drafted player who is electric, who was, he has so much value to him.
89:39He is a, I can't even say he's a better running back than Ramondre Stevenson.
89:43When you factor in a past protection and veteran knowledge and all of that, but as an athlete, as an explosive piece
89:50to an office of him could be, the ceiling is so astronomically high.
89:54And I, and then all the reports are coming out about how it's definitely Ramondre's role and Travo's still having a hard
90:00time with past protection, which I don't get. He was such a good past protector in college.
90:05And all of a sudden it was weird. Yeah.
90:08Now it's like, now that's his liability. Like what?
90:11Yeah. I find myself being in on Travion Henderson because I do believe his talent will win out.
90:16Uh, I think that Vrabel will not be able to keep him on the sideline through the course of an entire season
90:23and he will play his way into he's, he's more of the future of the team.
90:28They spent a high pick, um, you know, but I, I say that through like a lens where I kind of know I'm lying and wrong.
90:35I think so. I think so. No, no, no.
90:38Of all the ones we've done, this is the hardest, I think.
90:42So I'm so talented, but he's not going to get the job.
90:45I'll tell you what you guys can. So I think the Patriots run games be way better this year.
90:51I like, I think they didn't face that many light boxes last year.
90:55Now people are gonna be afraid of those receivers.
90:58AJ Brown. I think there's gonna be more balanced as a result.
91:01The question for me is I like, I'm so divided because of the backs and particularly.
91:06So just to give you like a nerd stat here, I like looking at running backs rushing yards over expected.
91:12It's an NGS stat, which is like how responsible is the back for the production?
91:17The number one running back in rushing yards over expected for carry last year was Ramond Ray.
91:22He was so efficient. He wasn't explosive at all, but I feel like he is too efficient for them to take an
91:28addition to the pass pro stuff you alluded to, to take them off the field.
91:33And that scares me off of Henderson, even though he's the more explosive and exciting player.
91:38And the playoffs. I mean, the playoffs said who you trusted.
91:41And it's, it's just, this is the fantasy dichotomy of sexy, like big play potential guy that we, you just know what
91:48the numbers would be if he had every snap, like certain players that you give Ramond Ray every snap.
91:53He's probably finishing as the RB 16 or 20.
91:56You know, if you give Travion every snap, you know, where the numbers are running back six, but I, the vision concerns me.
92:03The interior running concerns me with Travion Henderson, which is, you know, it's been a liability since the collegiate days.
92:09He is explosive. He can catch the ball. I don't know what's going on with the pass protection, but right now with
92:15Vrabel, I just feel like Vrabel knows what he has in Ramond Ray.
92:19And so it's like a regrettable situation where you get the boring dude instead of the exciting dude, but the boring dude
92:26does a bunch of stuff pretty well. I like to believe that if Travion Henderson had all the work in the Superbowl, they would have won.
92:34And the punishment is that you lost the Superbowl.
92:36There you go. See, Kenneth Walker got all the run.
92:39They did. Because of Charbonnet's injury and they won the Superbowl.
92:43The, the bowl case or the like, try to tell yourself this story that I can come up with at the top
92:49of my head is like Jameer Gibbs as a rookie high.
92:53I mean, drafted even higher in the NFL draft.
92:55And then over those first, it was like five or six weeks, he wasn't getting the work and it was so frustrating for fantasy football.
93:03Like what? Why do we keep putting David Montgomery?
93:06He's fine, but he, he's not doing for your team what Jameer Gibbs could be doing.
93:10And then, uh, uh, it brings me back to, uh, Austin Eckler, like broke down the situation and he's talking about, here's
93:17all these small things that Jameer Gibbs isn't doing.
93:20Cause he's new. Cause he's a rookie. He doesn't like there's, we like to imagine that moving from college running back to
93:26professional running back is you just show up and you're ready to do it.
93:31Totally. It's probably harder. I think people don't understand how much coaches when it comes to the run game and running backs
93:37care about these little things and you know, like not just past protection and, but all of the things that veteran backs do well.
93:44I was really taken by, I don't know if you guys saw a quote from Sean Payton where he was talking about
93:51Jonah Coleman, who he, and he, you could just tell he loves him and Coleman.
93:55I'm a Huskies fan. I thought would come into the league and actually be a lot more pro ready, even though he's
94:02not like super exciting as he is actually kind of one of my favorite sleepers to be honest.
94:08Yeah. We love Coleman. He was our number two back.
94:11But listen to Payton, talk about him and you'll love him more.
94:14And, and yeah, this is the tricky thing with these, these choices.
94:18I still want a piece of this Patriots run game.
94:21I just don't want to pay a lot for either of these bags.
94:25Yeah. That's the fair point. In fantasy football, like running back more than wide receivers, you, your coach better like you.
94:31Yeah. Cause you generally, you just have one on the field at a time.
94:35It's not like when you're, Oh, we got three wide receivers.
94:38My guy could end up with the target with a running bag.
94:42He, if the coach takes them out the field, I have a 0.0% chance of scoring points on that point.
94:48Ramondre fumbles. So there's that. There's that. Yeah. All right.
94:51Well, I feel like I've made choices about all of these things.
94:55I don't know if you guys feel, feel a little bit better maybe after this discussion.
94:59Um, yeah, I'm sure everybody listening to this knows where they can find your guys' show, but can you let them know?
95:06Yeah. I mean, this is go time. So the fantasy footballers.com and season kicking off.
95:11We're, we're stoked. We got all of our rankings and stuff up there.
95:15So I appreciate you. We do five shows a week from now until the end of the NFL season.
95:20So if you want to have a good time and get some good advice, check us out.
95:25Awesome. Um, yeah, everybody, if you don't listen already, you should go check it out.
95:30Guys have built something really incredible there. I will be listening, even though I already know I'm taking Jameer Gibbs and feel great about that.
95:37Congrats on that. Thank you so much. Ozzy, like what an emotional and mental load off of my bag.
95:43Yes. No decision. I'm going to think about it.
95:46Um, thank you as always to everyone at Omaha Productions who makes this show.
95:50Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Tashin, and I will be back next week as we get closer and closer to the football season.
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