Kincaid in America: An AFC East Preview
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 31 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 8, 2026
Published
Wed, July 8, 2026
51
Player insights
43
Players mentioned
Topics
Geno SmithDrake MayeAlijah Vera-TuckerMilton WilliamsRomeo DoubsA.J. BrownAndre CiscoBreece HallCaleb LomuCarlton DavisChop RobinsonChris BellChris JohnsonChristian Barmore
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection7:03
AJ Brown is described as a physical monster who can add size, speed, and explosion downfield, though he may not be the prime version of himself from his Philadelphia days.
Insight pageAlijah Vera-Tucker
PositiveProjection18:47
If Elijah Vera Tucker stays healthy, he can legitimately be one of the better offensive linemen in the league and is the key piece for the Patriots offensive line.
Insight pageNegativeInjury20:10
Elijah Vera Tucker has a history of injuries that keep him out for extended periods, limiting his availability despite his talent.
Insight pageAndre Cisco
PositiveRole0:39
Andre Cisco is a fine safety option for the Jets, though the analyst has never been a big fan of him, representing a floor-raising addition to the secondary.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveRole0:31
Breece Hall will benefit from Frank Reich's run game designs including inside zone, outside zone, duo, and gap scheme plays like trap and power, similar to how Jonathan Taylor was used with the Colts.
Insight pageCaleb Lomu
PositiveDepth Chart5:43
Caleb Lomu was drafted as a potential successor to Will Campbell or Morgan Moses, though it's unclear if he'll see the field this year.
Insight pageCarlton Davis
PositiveProjection30:20
Carlton Davis is a tremendous number two corner for the Patriots defense.
Insight pageChop Robinson
PositiveProjection32:00
Chop Robinson needs to get back to how he looked as a rookie for the Dolphins defense to be successful this season.
Insight pageChris Bell
PositiveProjection30:54
Chris Bell is a big true X receiver who can get yards after the catch and is really hard to bring down; he would be a nice fit with Malik Willis if he plays and could reduce the need for other receivers.
Insight pageChris Johnson
PositiveProjection32:23
Chris Johnson, a corner drafted from San Diego State, could hit the ground running for the Dolphins defense, and if he does, that would be a success for the season.
Insight pageChristian Barmore
PositiveProjection27:27
When Christian Barmore and Milton Williams were on the field together, the Patriots defense showed elite promise with elite defensive tackles and elite corners.
Insight pageChristian Gonzalez
PositiveProjection30:17
Christian Gonzalez is one of the best corners in football and should continue on his trajectory with the Patriots defense.
Insight pageCole Bishop
PositiveProjection16:48
Cole Bishop will see a significant uptick in performance under Jim Leonard's defensive scheme, as Leonard will blitz linebackers frequently and allow Bishop to play more as a box safety like he did at Utah, with more single-high coverage opportunities.
Insight pageD'Angelo Ponds
PositiveRole0:39
D'Angelo Ponds is a fun slot cornerback prospect who could get his hands on the ball and create plays in the run game or in coverage.
Insight pageDavid Bailey
PositiveRole0:35
David Bailey was drafted as a pass rusher with great speed and get-off, pairing with Vondy Sweat to give the Jets a dynamic edge rush duo that benefits from stout defensive tackles.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveProjection25:00
If Devin Achane has a successful year in 2025, he should be locked into one of the top five running backs in the league; he was first in yards after contact in 2025 and has elite speed and explosiveness.
Insight pageDemario Davis
PositiveRole0:36
Demario Davis was brought back to settle the linebacker group and wear the green dot, providing veteran leadership and intelligence despite no longer being an All-Pro level player.
Insight pageDemario Douglas
PositiveRole5:16
Demario Douglas is part of the Patriots' receiving group and is expected to be useful despite the addition of elite receivers.
Insight pageDevon Witherspoon
NegativeMatchup20:43
Devin Witherspoon ran through the B and C gaps relentlessly attacking Drake Maye in the Super Bowl, contributing to the Patriots' offensive line struggles.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection14:19
Drake Maye has one of the most ridiculous EPA per drop backs on deep ball throws in the past five to seven years.
Insight pagePositiveProjection15:47
Drake Maye was in the MVP conversation the previous year with a lesser receiving group, and the upgraded receivers should help him further.
Insight pagePositiveProjection20:57
Drake Maye was first in passer rating when under pressure and fourth in EPA per drop back when blitzed despite being pressured at the sixth highest rate in the NFL.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveRole0:33
Garrett Wilson is a true three-level threat who can play inside or outside and do everything, making him a true number one wide receiver that elevates the entire Jets receiving corps.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection0:24
Geno Smith was 30th in EPA per drop back last year with the Raiders, but the analyst believes his poor play was driven more by circumstances (Chip Kelly's offense, weak offensive line) than a fundamental decline in his ability.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:27
With the Jets, Geno Smith has better circumstances with Frank Reich as offensive coordinator, an improved offensive line, and better skill position players, positioning him to be in the 15-20 QB range rather than 25-32.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:28
Geno Smith was 8th in on-target rate last year and ranked high in accuracy on throws over 10 yards and even under pressure, suggesting his arm talent remains intact despite poor overall statistics.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:30
Geno Smith had the worst pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL last year and needs to make better decisions to take fewer sacks, though some of this was attributable to poor offensive line play.
Insight pageHunter Henry
PositiveRole10:45
Hunter Henry is very reliable and will be paired with a newly drafted tight end as part of the Patriots' offensive strategy.
Insight pageJacob Rodriguez
PositiveProjection32:16
Jacob Rodriguez, drafted as everybody's favorite linebacker, could become a starter for the Dolphins, which would be really helpful especially if they decide to trade Jordan Brooks.
Insight pageJared Wilson
PositiveRole18:42
Jared Wilson's move to center helps him given his size and skill set, and he should improve in his second season.
Insight pageJoe Tippmann
PositiveRole0:32
Joe Tippman impressed on tape with the Jets last year and is part of a solid offensive line that could be very good if younger players continue to develop.
Insight pageJulian Hill
NegativeInjury5:26
Julian Hill was lost to injury after being drafted by the Patriots to pair with Hunter Henry.
Insight pageKenneth Grant
PositiveProjection32:07
Kenneth Grant, the Dolphins' first-round draft pick, needs to take a step forward for the defense to be successful this season.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
NegativeRole0:30
Keon Coleman is in the doghouse, suggesting reduced playing time or role concerns with the Bills.
Insight pageKevin Byard
PositiveDepth Chart27:20
Kevin Bayard is coming in at safety for the Patriots and is described as pretty good from last year.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection26:40
Malik Willis is a special runner with dynamic explosiveness, good vision, and strength; his legs should be a massive part of the Dolphins offense to maximize his effectiveness.
Insight pageMilton Williams
PositiveRole0:21
Milton Williams was a strong interior pass rusher for the Patriots last year, ranking 7th in win rate, 3rd in pressure rate, 3rd in pass rush productivity, and tied for 6th in sacks among 112 qualifying interior defenders.
Insight pagePositiveProjection27:27
When Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were on the field together, the Patriots defense showed elite promise with elite defensive tackles and elite corners.
Insight pageMinkah Fitzpatrick
PositiveRole0:39
Minka Fitzpatrick has gotten his hands on the football at points in his career but gave up big plays and was not as great in coverage last season, which was reflected in the market.
Insight pageMorgan Moses
PositiveDepth Chart18:34
Morgan Moses is the right tackle for the Patriots, with Caleb Lomu potentially available as a successor.
Insight pageOlu Fashanu
PositiveRole0:32
Olu Fashanu deserves credit as part of the Jets' solid offensive line that should help protect Geno Smith and support the running game.
Insight pageOmar Cooper Jr.
PositiveRole0:33
Omar Cooper Jr. was solid at Indiana getting yards after the catch and doing dirty work over the middle of the field, and benefits from playing alongside Garrett Wilson as a true number one receiver.
Insight pageReggie Gilliam
PositiveRole5:31
Reggie Gilliam was added as a fullback and his acquisition seems purposeful, allowing the Patriots to use heavier personnel groupings similar to what the Bills did with great success.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveProjection17:06
Rhamondre Stevenson should benefit from lighter boxes and easier running lanes with the addition of AJ Brown to the Patriots offense.
Insight pageRobert Spillane
PositiveDepth Chart31:40
Robert Spillane was part of the Patriots defense when it was a very good run defense.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveRole5:58
Dobbs is described as a really good elite separator, low red zone technician, and good on outbreakers with an excellent process.
Insight pagePositiveValue5:58
Anthony Prohaska values Romeo Dobbs highly, stating he would have preferred Dobbs and his contract over DJ Moore and what the Bills paid for Moore.
Insight pageTerrel Bernard
PositiveProjection17:10
Terrell Bernard will see a significant uptick in performance under Jim Leonard's defensive scheme, as Leonard will blitz linebackers frequently in various forms.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
PositiveProjection17:06
Travion Henderson should benefit from lighter boxes and easier running lanes with the addition of AJ Brown to the Patriots offense.
Insight pageWill Campbell
NegativeInjury18:24
Will Campbell struggled in the postseason coming off an injury, though he was better before the injury.
Insight pageWill McDonald
PositiveRole0:35
Will McDonald brings speed and a great get-off as a pass rusher, though he has improved somewhat against the run, and benefits from pairing with David Bailey.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:24From athletic to athletic-ish, Sierra's got it. Welcome back to the Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, only NFL podcast.
0:30One of the hosts heard Keon Coleman is in the doghouse and said, Me too!
0:35That's Lenny. I'm Mina Kimes. We're going to be talking about Keon Coleman today because we are talking about the Bills.
0:41We're also talking about the Patriots, the Dolphins, the Jets.
0:44It's time to preview the AFC East. And to do so, I have a first-time guest, which is so exciting.
0:50I have gone on his podcast. He does an excellent job covering the Bills, but I also believe he's going to be
0:56a good He is phenomenal at covering the entire league, which is why I asked him to do this.
1:02It is Anthony Prohaska from Cover One. His podcast there is called Disguise Coverage.
1:06Welcome to the show! Thank you very much for having me.
1:10I'm pumped to be here after having you a couple of times on my show.
1:14And I tried to come up with like a dog pun in my head.
1:18Like you lead off these with, but I didn't come up with anything good.
1:23Yours was good. Well done. Well done. It's hard.
1:25You know, I always relish new people coming into the league because I need new names to play well off of.
1:32By the way, are you bringing an Arrested Development shirt?
1:35I just noticed that. Yeah, it's a Blue Bananas t-shirt.
1:38Thank you. All right. So last week we did the NFC East.
1:41AFC East is very different. It is very much a division of the haves and the have nots.
1:47There are two teams that are, you know, one was in the Super Bowl.
1:51One is perennial Super Bowl contender as of late.
1:53And then there are two teams who are rebuilding.
1:56One of them is a little bit more confusing or not confusing, but okay.
2:00Well, obviously I'm talking about the Jets and the Dolphins.
2:03The Dolphins we know are rebuilding. I have some, there's stuff to talk about with them.
2:08I think I'm interested in getting to the rebuild, the players, the young players, the core, what they're going to get out of Malik Willis.
2:16The Jets are a little bit like, I don't know, man.
2:19Like I, you look at them and they might not be that bad, but they also could be.
2:24So we'll talk about them. We're going to talk about the Patriots first.
2:28And look, I, I'm trying not to spend too much time on this one because I had the Patriots both in my
2:35top 10 offenses and my top 10 defenses pod.
2:38I had the bills, I think it's the number two offense.
2:41So we'll obviously get to that in depth. That's your account.
2:44And I have a lot of questions for you about the bills, but starting with the Patriots.
2:49Yeah. The defense kind of snuck in for me at 10, the offense.
2:53I, I don't know. It's funny. Cause I think I had them for something, which seem to take Nate by surprise and,
3:00and talking about the Pats on ESPN. Uh, it feels like everybody is convinced this team is going to take a step
3:06back with the harder schedule, but Anthony, one would assume the addition of an AJ Brown would mitigate that to some degree.
3:13So we should just start there. That's the big change.
3:16Um, the receiving group is completely revamped. We've got AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs, some combination of Demario Douglas, Kayshawn Booty, Matt Collins, Kyle Williams.
3:23They drafted a tight end to pair with Hunter Henry.
3:26Unfortunately, it lost Julian Hill to injury. Uh, the backs are the same Stevenson Henderson.
3:31They added Reggie Gilliam. Um, so a feeling your face for you, uh, bringing back Josh McDaniels, beloved fullback.
3:36And then the offensive line, um, they did draft Caleb Lomu, but it's unclear if he'll see the field this year.
3:43Uh, will Campbell staying at left tackle. They signed, uh, Elijah Vera Tucker to play guard, who is a good player when
3:49he's been healthy, but let's focus on the receiving group first.
3:53How improved is this in your mind? I think significantly.
3:56I, I, I personally like Romeo Dobbs a lot.
3:58I, you know, not to even get into the bills already.
4:02Like I value is a separate conversation. I would have had rather had Romeo Dobbs and his contract than DJ more and
4:08everything that the bills paid for DJ more, but you know, separate conversation, but Dobbs, I mean, really good elite separator in
4:15the low red zone technician, you know, good on outbreakers.
4:18It just the process of how he operates in and of itself, I think is good.
4:23And then you pair him with AJ Brown, who might not be the AJ Brown of old or prime AJ Brown, or,
4:29I mean, who knows if we're reading the tea leaves, maybe, you know, everything else that was going on in Philly was,
4:36you know, kind of contributing to him, not being the full version of himself, but physical monster, even if he is not the prime version of himself.
4:44And you add what he can be down the field from a size and speed and explosion perspective.
4:49So him and Dobbs at the top is a tremendous one, two.
4:53And then I like where it slots in everyone else.
4:56Matt Collins now gets to be more of the dirty work grinder, kind of like what he was with the bills a couple of years ago.
5:04Like a tight end. Yeah, he essentially is. And you can use him.
5:08And if you want to go 11, or if you want to go 12 or 13, have him be the receiver, you
5:14can slot him in, attach the formation and let him insert and pick up guys.
5:19But, you know, he's also underrated as a pass catcher.
5:22And I'm going to speak out of both sides of my mouth a little here, but now instead of having him be
5:28like a primary guy for Drake made down the field.
5:31Now that primary guy is AJ Brown, which feels like an upgrade.
5:35And then the two behind him is Dobbs and then it's Hollins and Kayshawn Booty has Derek Stingley's number apparently.
5:41And he's like your three. And then Kyle Williams is there.
5:44I think it's a good group. You still got pop Douglas.
5:47I think it's a significantly upgraded group, which is scary to think because Drake may was in the MVP conversation with a lesser group the year before.
5:56What I actually find interesting too, is that right now they have embarrassment or riches might sound a little bit extreme, but
6:02this is a very deep receiving group at the moment.
6:05Brown and Dobbs are your one and two, but every single other receiver, I named, I imagine being useful, right?
6:11Like, and they're very different types, different body types.
6:14As you outline, you can put your speed guy on the field and Williams, you got bigger bodies.
6:19Booty also is a downfield threat, et cetera. I think what's interesting for Josh McDaniels, um, is whether or not he decides
6:26to use heavier personnel groupings, meaning the fullback and the tight ends, given that he has all of these receivers, right?
6:32Because acquiring Gilliam feels very deliberate. I think acquiring Hill, maybe that throws a little bit of a wrench in that plan,
6:39but they did spend, you know, Eli Raritan. I think they want to play Hunter Henry is very reliable.
6:45And, you know, I think there's the potential here to sort of follow the trends of the league and put tight ends
6:51on the field and play action off of that or put Gilliam on the field, which is something the bills did with great success.
6:58So, but so there's that on one hand, but then on the other hand, and maybe compensate for potential offensive line problems, which we can talk about.
7:06That's probably the one area where I have some questions, but also you got all these girly good receivers.
7:12So I, it, McDaniels really is given a lot to work with.
7:16Um, and yeah, I think there, I guess what I'm saying is what I love about this group of skill players now
7:22is he had Josh McDaniels has the ability to change the Patriots use of personnel groupings based on their opponents.
7:28You know what I mean? Like there's, he has that sort of flexibility because of all the players that they've added.
7:351000%. And what you can do, even if like you want to stay in 11, you can run the ball a bit from 11.
7:42You can pass the ball out of 11. If you want us to go condensed, if you want to go spread, if
7:48you want to do some power spread stuff, you can do that.
7:52And then, yeah, if you want to go with the heavies, um, I think Gilliam is Gilliam is interesting, right?
7:58Cause that does seem purposeful, but then obviously like Dobbs and AJ Brown is purposeful.
8:03And so it's like, do you really just want to be different from week to week?
8:07Like what do you lean into? Um, and even last year, 17.5%, 21 personnel rate.
8:12They ran the ball 56% of the time from 21 personnel.
8:15They had the third most run plays in the league from 21.
8:19Um, and then they were 14th in EPA per rush from 21 and 11th and success rate, which kind of ties into,
8:25I think the addition of Gilliam and then the weapons on the outside from a pass catching standpoint, the receivers are better.
8:32Like we talked about, I think that helps Drake may.
8:35And then I wonder just how much the new bodies that are in there on offense, Gilliam, and even some of the
8:42pass catchers, how much does it help a run game that was kind of below average last year, like 21st and rushing DVO way.
8:49Um, but you're, you're third overall in DVO way for your offense.
8:52Second in passing DVO way. Drake may has one of the most ridiculous EPA per drop backs on deep ball throws in
8:59the past, like five, six years, seven years. But then you look at that run game and there's questions about it.
9:05And we know, like you said, Josh McDaniel, he wants to be a little, little heavy.
9:10He wants to run the ball. He wants to establish that go under center.
9:14What do you lean into knowing you got the superstar quarterback, some pass catchers and heavy?
9:19That's McDaniel's identity, right? Like that's what he is known for.
9:22You know, everyone remembers from his first Patriots stint.
9:25Like he, he wants that power run game. He wants to put two backs on the field and then he wants to work off of that.
9:33Um, and I think to your point, like the run game was extremely mid at best last season.
9:38Um, and there's like a litany of reasons for that.
9:41I think what I found so interesting going back and looking at some of the numbers is despite the fact that the
9:48Patriots had from an efficiency explosive, all pretty much everything.
9:51One of the, if not the best pass games in football, really the best, honestly.
9:55Uh, defenses still stack the box against them. Uh, and I think that was one of the reasons why the run game
10:02wasn't better is that even though they had this incredible pass game.
10:06That should have lightened the load for the run game.
10:09Defenses really were not afraid of the Patriots receivers.
10:11Maybe they should have been more afraid, but now if you put AJ Brown on the field, defenses don't want to play man coverage against him.
10:19Now imagine having, so you're going to see more split safety.
10:22You're going to see lighter boxes. It should be easier, right?
10:26For Travion Henderson and Stevenson. Imagine having like AJ Brown and Gilliam on the field at the same time.
10:31Like, what are you doing? Right? Because if you like, if the Patriots go heavy, but then they have AJ Brown as
10:38the receiver and defenses respond in kind, you're going to get those one-on-ones that we know AJ Brown has feasted on over
10:45the entire, you know, his entire career. So I think just taking a step back, just everything works together and makes this
10:51offense able to attack your weaknesses, get favorable coverages or get favorable looks on the ground.
10:56It's a really great group. If I had one concern, it really is just the offensive line.
11:01And I want to ask you what you think of that.
11:04Will Campbell obviously struggled in the postseason coming off of the injury.
11:08He was better before the injury. Patriots are sticking with him at left tackle, but they did draft Caleb Lomu.
11:14Who potentially as a successor to either him or Morgan Moses on the right side.
11:18How do you feel about, you know, Jared Wilson's now playing center?
11:22Do you think that this group can be better than what we saw in the playoffs?
11:27Because it kind of was their undoing. I think if, if, if Elijah Vera Tucker stays healthy, I really think he's kind
11:33of the straw that stirs the drink. Because he's such a, almost like an important linchpin there.
11:39Because if, if he goes down, then what's nice is now you have Lomu who kind of is this, can plug multiple spots.
11:45Say Vera Tucker goes down. You could kick Will Campbell into left guard.
11:49You could put Lomu at left tackle. If there's anything with Moses, you could put Lomu potentially at right tackle.
11:55But I like that Jared Wilson's at center. I think with his size and his skill set and his playing profile, the
12:02move to center helps him a bit. Elijah Vera Tucker, if he can stay healthy, can legitimately be like one of the better offensive linemen in the league.
12:10And I feel like we all say this every off season.
12:14And then he gets hit with some injury that keeps him out for the entirety of the year.
12:19And it's just kind of like this, like he's trying to be the defense against the dark arts teacher at Hogwarts.
12:25And it's just like not meant to be for him.
12:28Um, but I think this offensive line should be better, especially from a self-scouting standpoint.
12:33I think so many of us are, and rightfully so, etched into our brain of how they got picked apart by the
12:40Seahawks in the Super Bowl from a rule standpoint and a plan standpoint.
12:43And free runners and Devin Witherspoon just running through the B and the C gap left and right, like relentlessly attacking Drake May.
12:50And that's on top of a year where Drake May was pressured at the sixth highest pressure rate in the NFL at 38.6%.
12:57He was the fourth most sack quarterback, um, 47 times.
13:00Granted, he was like first in passer rating when under pressure and fourth in EPA per drop back when blitz because he's phenomenal.
13:07But yeah, I do think there'll be better, but how much better they are, I think is tied to whether or not Elijah Vera Tucker stays healthy.
13:15But that could even, if you wanted to spin it positively, you could even say, well, maybe if he goes down, we'll find exactly.
13:22And that's better for him. Like, you know, I just, I think the low mood draft pick was really astute on their part.
13:29Um, for that reason, cause you look at the same, you're like, well, you already have tackles, but do you like, you know, you never know.
13:37Um, I think it's interesting from a profile standpoint, because I think of Lomu as like, um, light, a little bit light
13:44in the pants, athletic zone blocking tackle. And it's a little bit different from when we think about like these Josh McDaniels
13:50offenses and sort of the past, but, um, you know, I think maybe signals kind of a little bit like where they want to go.
13:58Um, I don't know, but yeah, I think I, I, it w it would be my number one concern looking at his
14:04offense, but I do think he gives them some insurance there that is encouraging.
14:09Also, you know, Campbell and Jared Wilson, that was their first season, man.
14:13Like, you know, like I, I think it's definitely within the realm of possibility that both get better next year.
14:19A thousand percent. So I, you know, that would be exciting too for them.
14:23And one more thing I can't believe for me, like I, I know the short arms there, they're short.
14:28Um, but I feel like so many people kind of attributed the struggles in the super bowl to back.
14:34Well, look at his arms. They're short. He's never going to succeed.
14:38And for me, it was more of his feet and his punch timing, like being off.
14:43And those things can be corrected. He's never going to have the longest arms.
14:47It's always going to be something that he has to adjust for.
14:50But yeah, he, his first year in the league, let's see himself scout.
14:54I think the bigger part too, is does Doug Marone kind of self scout and think, okay, like we got picked apart from a rule standpoint.
15:02We got embarrassed. That was also kind of happening during the year a little bit.
15:07What do I need to do to not just individually develop the guys, but get better from a holistic rule standpoint and not get picked apart?
15:14Well, it should be noted that it wasn't just a super bowl.
15:18The Patriots offensive line got cooked the entire season.
15:21Now they did face very challenging. It was like the gauntlet of NFL pass rushes.
15:25Murderers row. But even like the Chargers, like, you know, I'm sorry.
15:29I'm thinking of the Broncos. Sorry, this is what I had in mind.
15:33Like, I was like, you guys could be doing a little better job than this.
15:37That's fair. Okay. So the Patriots defense is a little bit more questionable to me, even though I did ultimately put them in the top 10.
15:45And this is another unit where I think the postseason introduces some like interesting questions.
15:49You know, I talked about this in my top 10 defenses pod, but I think the question of is this the defense we saw at the end?
15:58Or is it's kind of the inverse of the Patriots?
16:01It's why the Patriots became a very frustrating team to talk about because it felt like at the end of the year, everyone looked back in the season.
16:09It was like, you know, the offense was like hit or miss and the defense was elite, which was just not at
16:16all true as to what happened during the regular season.
16:19But then they flipped and the defense was quite good in the postseason.
16:22However, they've lost some players. You know, I mentioned that role players, but guys who I thought were pretty good for them chase on Hawkins.
16:30They did add Draymond Jones and Gabe Ackes, who had been hurt during the offseason otherwise.
16:35And then Hawkins is out. Kevin Bayard, who's honestly pretty good last year, is in for them at safety.
16:40You know, I've talked about last year, I think when Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were on the field together, you kind
16:47of saw the promise of this defense, which is elite defensive tackles, elite corners.
16:51And in the postseason, they were blitzing like crazy, playing a ton of man coverage.
16:56So I think that raises interesting questions, not just of how good they'll be this year, but what their defensive identity will be.
17:03Because Zach Kerr now gets the entire season right to be the you know, well, he started coaching pretty quickly last year, but it was obviously transitional.
17:11So what do you think this defense will look like this season?
17:14For me, this is this like a tiny little nugget or maybe kind of a deep pull.
17:19So they they bring on Shane Bowen as a defensive analyst for them this year.
17:24And Kerr kind of studied under him for a bit in Tennessee when Vrabel was still there as well.
17:30Bowen, with his time in Tennessee, was really good with simulated pressures like the design, the scheme of them.
17:35And that's such kind of like the in vogue thing for defenses like Sims and creepers.
17:40And what can we do in changing the math and changing the picture and so on and so forth?
17:46But he was creative and effective with them, use them as a significant clip in Tennessee.
17:51Not so much with the Giants the past couple of years, but him being brought in as an analyst.
17:56And I wonder, like, do they want to lean into more of that look instead of just being more of a hey,
18:03we're going to play a bunch of cover one.
18:06Hey, we're going to play some cover three. We're kind of rock and roll our safeties.
18:10But, you know, to your point, good luck beating Christian Gonzalez, who is one of the best corners in football.
18:17Good luck beating Carlton Davis, who's a tremendous number two.
18:20I think they're going to stay with the man coverage aspect or even from a match perspective, which makes sense.
18:26You've got Gonzo. Let him lock down aside. Continue on his trajectory.
18:29Carlton Davis is a good number two. But I feel like maybe they start to dip into some more schematic creativity from a front perspective.
18:37I mean, I think it might be kind of necessary because if there's one thing I question about this defense and the
18:43thing that made me a little bit nervous about putting them in the top 10, it is the pass rush outside of those defensive tackles.
18:51Just it is, you know, the right now, like adding Jones and Akis, they have these like it's a very power oriented
18:57rush pocket pushers, guys who can set an edge.
19:00I expect this to be a very good run defense, which it was when like Robert Spillane and they did lose Tonga.
19:07I want to know that. So Corey Jordan will be taking his place.
19:11But yeah, like I look at this team and I kind of wonder if they're going to be able to affect the
19:17quarterback with just a standard rush, which is part of the reason I think like the blitz became such a weapon for them in the postseason.
19:25Recognizing, hey, we have these corners who we trust.
19:28Let's just send pressure. And so, yeah, I think there's going to require it's going to require a little creativity, right?
19:34Like they didn't invest a lot in this. You know, Draymond Jones was like kind of good.
19:39He was. After being graded. So it's not like I'm saying they have no one or the cupboard is bare or, you
19:46know, in Harold Andrews opposite him, hopefully healthy. Akis is a he's like a cool player who has a kind of a specific role.
19:53But I just feel like Zach Kerr is going to have to go in his bag a little bit to try to generate pressure.
20:00And so the bone point is an interesting one to that end, because, yeah, I think one side of that is blitzing.
20:07Another side of it is getting a little bit of exotic in terms of trying to confuse quarterbacks.
20:12You know, I'm optimistic. I think obviously I think last year injuries hurt them at various points to different players.
20:18And they have decent depth at multiple positions. I think my only question is just especially like if.
20:23Yeah. Well, again, with a harder slate of opposing quarterbacks and what because last year.
20:28The defense really benefited from weak competition more so than the offense.
20:32A thousand percent. And especially when you look at like I know we look at a lot of the same same things
20:38like EPA per play and success rate and DVOA.
20:41It's funny seeing like so EPA per play, the defense as a whole, they're third in EPA per play allowed.
20:47Third in EPA per pass allowed. You know, 13th in success rate allowed overall.
20:51And then if you look at DVOA, they're 23rd in DVOA, like 25th in passing DVOA, 17th in rushing DVOA.
20:57And so like the DVOA metrics was kind of puts everyone on an even plane and accounts for all situation and opponent.
21:04Dingdom big time. But if you're looking at kind of the, you know, straightforward advanced metrics, they were phenomenal.
21:09And I'm wondering to kind of see, yeah, where, where do they fall?
21:13Is it closer to that EPA and success rate metric?
21:16Is it closer to the DVOA aspect? Do now that there's.
21:20Kind of more of a target on their back and maybe people are aware, like, OK, the Patriots are back.
21:26We have to pay more attention to the Patriots.
21:28Our team's gunning for them a little bit. And where do they slot in with the deep from the DVOA and the regular advanced metrics standpoint?
21:36And I think it's that's such a great point, too, with the pressure aspect and kind of scheming it up.
21:42And how you tie it in. And I think what does help them so much is how good Milton Williams was as a pass rusher last year.
21:50And you might not get the traditional one on one winning from the outside, because like you said, it is more power, compression, set the edge.
21:58But Milton Williams on the interior amongst 112 qualifying interior defenders last year, seventh and win rate, third and pressure rate, third
22:05and pass rush productivity tied for sixth and sacks.
22:07So maybe it's OK. Let's game some guys up.
22:10Let's try and get him isolated. Win on the interior.
22:13Yeah. And then we can win with some scheme.
22:16And then, no, we have Gonzo. And then we can't.
22:19I mentioned Gonzo Gonzalez and Davis so much. But then, like you mentioned, with the addition of Bayard, all those picks last
22:25year for the Bears, him patrolling center field, playing in tandem with kind of how they want to operate.
22:31I think it's a good defense. It'll be interesting to see where they slot in.
22:35But I think like the floor is a top 10 ish defense where if they fall out of it, it's like 12th or 13th.
22:43Yeah. I think if you tell me that the defensive tackles and the corners will be healthy, I feel fine because that's
22:49exactly you got two elite duos, even though, again, I have questions about the pass rushers.
22:54It is. I really wish they had someone with speed because when you talk about the defensive tackles and all the attention
23:01they combine and also the fact that because they're there, you're not really reducing guys inside like Draymond Jones, you know, who's played inside outside.
23:08You don't need him to play inside. It's fine.
23:11But I wish they had someone who I really trusted to, you know, turn the get around, like turn the corner or on stunts or things like that.
23:19And I'm not sure I look at this group and I see that per se.
23:24So solid. Are you trying to get more like is is Harold Landry your juice guy?
23:29If you're looking at it, he probably is the juice guy.
23:32And that's still kind of like, like, what? Yeah, kind of in the years.
23:36Yeah. Yeah. But I think like, again, I think this will be a really good run defense.
23:41So that gives them. And if the offense is as good as we've been discussing that combination, elite run defense, creative coaching, top five offense or around there.
23:50It's probably good enough. OK, let's do the Jets next.
23:53So let's start with the offense. Very different. Very.
23:55Interesting. Interesting. So we've got Geno Smith at quarterback backed up by Bailey Zappi and Cade Clubnick.
24:00Receiving group is now Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper, Jr., A.D.
24:03Mitchell, Tim Patrick. Tight ends. Kenyan Sadiq, Mason Taylor, Jeremy Ruckert, third tight end.
24:08Running backs are still Brees Hall and Allen. And then your offensive line is mostly the same.
24:13Right. Fushanu, Parham, Myers, Tippman, Armin, Membu. Young. Awesome slide.
24:16So let's just start with the elephant in the room.
24:19Geno Smith. And I think this is kind of the question that will determine whether the Jets have the number one pick
24:25or they're not in that range competing with the likes of the Cardinals and whatnot.
24:30Browns, you know. And the question is pretty simple.
24:33Was last year how much if you're if you're putting the blame pie for the absolute travesty that was slicing it up.
24:39The Raiders offense. What portion goes to Chip Kelly?
24:42What portion goes to the offensive line? What portion goes to the receivers?
24:46What portion goes to the quarterback? Very difficult question, Anthony, because the truth is all of the above is the correct answer.
24:52It was an absolute nightmare. But like what when you watch so, Geno, I, you know, for those who do the most
24:59intersections with football, sacks the most in football, you know, really struggled.
25:03So so when you watched him, how much would you pin on his decline, mental arm, all of it versus his circumstances?
25:09It starts with the circumstances, because like you said, he definitely deserves blame in that pie.
25:14But I I just kind of refuse to believe that he's that bad and fell off that hard from Seattle.
25:20Granted, right at this time last year, a lot of the discourse was Seattle made a big mistake letting Geno go.
25:26And they brought in Darnold and then Darnold had obviously a phenomenal year.
25:30So then it's like, OK, was it more of the scheme uplifting Geno than kind of what Geno was doing?
25:36Or the inverse, right? Did the Seahawks can get much better?
25:39Did the offensive line get much better? Or is the quarterback like and again, it's a it's a complicated.
25:45It's why quarterback play is so hard to isolate, because there's so many things that matter.
25:50Yeah. But him being, you know, out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks being 30th in EPA per drop back last year.
25:56I don't believe he's that guy. I think his his play was poor, but I think it started with the circumstances.
26:02I think Chip Kelly was kind of just like, hey, man, whatever.
26:06Unchecked out. Let's just kind of call stuff and see whatever happens.
26:09Crazy bad offense. And I I've never been a big Chip Kelly guy, but I really kind of drank the Kool-Aid with
26:16him coming back from college in Ohio State. Cool stuff in college.
26:20I was like, oh, this is cool. Like exciting things are going to happen.
26:24Yeah. And then I was like, OK, and like now they got Geno.
26:28OK, and like I know Ashton Gentry, like maybe shouldn't have been the pick there, but Gentry Sweet.
26:33I was like, OK, I know there's some questions everywhere else, but we got maybe the bones of something.
26:39And then it was the exact opposite of that.
26:42But I think it starts with Chip and the circumstances and the ecosystem and the environment not being right for Gino, because
26:48not only did Gino fall off, pretty much everything was a mess there.
26:52They couldn't block. They couldn't execute. There were missed assignments, kind of lack of urgency at times from everyone.
26:58And so I think Gino does deserve part of that blame because you still got to put your best foot forward.
27:04But I think at a certain point, I'm not going to say he checked out because I don't know that and I
27:11don't want to put that on anybody. But I think it starts with the circumstance and he kind of fell into it.
27:17And that's why I'm kind of excited to see what he can do with the Jets, because I think it's a much different set of circumstances, though.
27:25You know, Aaron Glenn, how long is he here?
27:28And does that kind of creep into anybody's mind or into the waters there a little bit?
27:33But purely from a build standpoint, you've got at minimum three really good offensive linemen.
27:38And if Omar Cooper, you know, rookies, we never know what they're going to be.
27:42But if he can be something, if A.D. Mitchell can catch the football, you've got a true wide receiver one in Garrett Wilson.
27:49And you've got a cool top two in your tight end room with Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq and a guy in
27:56Frank Reich who knows how to use tight ends and like to do it back at his time in Indianapolis.
28:02I think you could have something that could kind of work.
28:05It's funny, right? Because Reich is kind of it's kind of the same question with him that you have for Gina, which
28:12is the last time we saw you. Is that who you are or were your circumstances, which was, you know, the kind
28:18of disastrous Bryce Young year, his initials. And like Reich was not good in Carolina and the offense was not.
28:24I felt like it wasn't suited for young, but young also wasn't good and it wasn't the greatest group of skilled players.
28:31So, yeah, I think, you know, you can go back to Indianapolis and obviously Philadelphia and Frank Reich has been a good NFL play caller.
28:38But similarly, Gino, it's kind of like, OK, well, which one are you?
28:42Did we see the version that we're going to get this season?
28:46To go back to Gino for a second. So if Jets fans are looking for some coke, I have it for you
28:52because last year you said he was he was near the bottom or bottom and most meaningful quarterback metrics.
28:58But something I thought was interesting was he was still extremely accurate.
29:02He was eighth in on target rate league wide.
29:04And even when you expanded that to over 10 yards and over 20, he still ranked high in terms of his accuracy.
29:11Even under pressure, he wasn't that bad. And, you know, he had a relatively fast time to throw.
29:16So it wasn't like he was holding onto the ball and taking that many egregious sacks.
29:21The problem was he just took a ton of sacks.
29:24The other another number I'll highlight is on throws over 10 yards.
29:28Sometimes I like to look this up. He had a 35 percent tight window rate, which was first in the NFL.
29:34And that's what I know. It's always interesting because, you know, some of it is like some quarterbacks just like throwing those balls.
29:41Dak Prescott always ranks really high in that regard.
29:44Gino likes throwing tight window throws. So he's always going to rank higher.
29:48But I also think it reflects just how crappy the passing, the spacing and the passing offense was and how tight everything felt generally.
29:55The other final piece of cope. Yes, he had a 3.8 percent interception rate last year.
30:00But if you go back just two years in Seattle, he went 1.9 very low, 1.8 very low, 2.6, which was not great his final year in Seattle.
30:08So the things I think there's he can still throw the football.
30:12I did feel like his arm strength showed a little bit of decline last season.
30:16And then his mobility, like he took a lot of sacks.
30:19Now, again, some of that was on a lot of that was on the offensive line and the offense.
30:25But he's not going to give you quarterback mobility at this point in his career.
30:30His pressure to sac rate was the worst in the NFL.
30:33So decision making, he's got to make better choices.
30:36He's got to take fewer sacks. But I do think, per our conversation, this is a much better offense that he's walking into in the Jets.
30:43So, yeah, I don't know. Like, sorry, I know I want to like, I do not think at this point he is
30:50going to be a top 15 quarterback. But I think what I don't know is, is he going to be in the
30:5715 to 25 range versus the 25 to 32 range?
31:00That, Anthony, I feel like I don't know because last year was so insane.
31:04Yeah, it really was such a kind of going from everyone's darling the past couple years in Seattle to all of a
31:10sudden just being part of this absolute dumpster fire with the Raiders.
31:14And I think what does help him a bit and Reich being there and, you know, kind of having pieces to implement
31:21the offense that he had success with from his time in Philly and Indianapolis, like the pieces around, like we've talked about a little bit.
31:28I do think there's enough to insulate Gino to help him be the best version of himself.
31:33Like if you, if you made me decide right now, I think Gino will be in like the 15 to 20 range
31:40more so than the 25 to 32. I think, especially if that offensive line stays healthy.
31:45And then with Brees Hall, I think you're going to get a good running game.
31:49Like Frank Reich's going to bring all the inside zone and the outside zone.
31:53They'll run duo. They'll run some cool gap scheme stuff with trap and power encounter.
31:58So I think they'll have a stuff. Yeah, is where you're thinking about the usage similar to Jonathan Taylor.
32:04Yeah, that's the first thing I thought of with like thinking of Frank Reich was when, you know, his Colts teams were
32:10the first time I ever saw the crunch play, which is like trap mixed with wham.
32:15And they ran it so much against the bills and Jonathan Taylor just ate with that play.
32:20And I was always thought the run game designs were cool.
32:23And I think you can do that. That was, you know, really going back and watching, focusing on Gino with the Raiders
32:30and then watching the Jets offense last year. I came away, you know, I think Olu Fashano gets his credit and then Membou.
32:37Tippman just got paid, so maybe he's getting acknowledged a bit more.
32:40But I came away really impressed with Joe Tippman.
32:43And then knowing like, okay, Josh Myers is the center.
32:46The weakest guy on that line is Parham. That's not a bad weakest link.
32:50It's only considering what the other strengths are. So let Brees Hall do fun Brees Hall things, catching the ball, running the ball.
32:57Garrett Wilson, you have a true wide receiver one and you have a solid offensive line that could actually be very good
33:04if those younger guys continue to take jumps, which is a very likely thing.
33:08I think they kind of priced themselves into the range of like a seven to eight win type of team or maybe
33:15six to nine if we extend it. And get to the defense.
33:18Yeah. Yeah. Like it's, it's interesting with what the offense could be just focused totally there.
33:23I like this group of steel players. I mean, you outlined it, but I also just like how Cooper Jr.
33:29and Mitchell slash Sadiq Taylor, et cetera, fit with Wilson.
33:32It really shows you the benefits of having a true number one, right?
33:36Like the Patriots. Yeah. We'll get to the bills.
33:39Um, but like Garrett Wilson is a true three level threat.
33:42You can play him inside outside. He can do everything with him.
33:46And because of that, son, you look at a player like Cooper Jr.
33:49Who was so solid at in, in, in Indiana and get you yards after the catch.
33:54We'll do the dirty work over the middle of the field is pretty smooth.
33:58And then 80 Mitchell can be explosive. And you really saw flashes of that, by the way, as this near the end
34:05of the season last year with him. And, and then you think about like, okay, if they want to use, you talked
34:12about Reich and his use of tight ends. And you're putting them on the field and maybe record as well.
34:18And 13 suddenly you can just use two of those receivers.
34:21Like it, it's a, it's a fun young core.
34:24And I think if you're a Jets fan, I understand you don't want to win too many games.
34:29But I think the upside case of having a professional quarterback, assuming you get that version of Smith is you can actually develop the young core.
34:37Because when you have a really bad quarterback play, all of the players we talked about will get frustrated.
34:43Won't, you know what I mean? Like, so I think there is, there is a case for bringing in like a competent veteran.
34:49If you're the rest of your offense is really young, which is, is a very, very young.
34:55I mean, it's gotta be like the youngest offense in football.
34:58I mean, just looking at the group and the line and the play.
35:02So I think we'll see. I feel like if you're a Jets fan, it's like, you're talking about that young core and
35:08it's like, man, that's a really great young core to like pair with Arch Manning.
35:13And then it's like, oh, but like, also to your point though.
35:16Yeah. Will they get there? Well, I, I think the defense will help them.
35:21The defense. Uh, no, I, I, they did make, I think some addition.
35:25This is a defense by the way. It was 32nd in DVOA against the past.
35:29They were actually average against the run. Uh, big changes up front.
35:33Jermaine Johnson out to Vondry sweat. And I really liked that move, especially when you consider them drafting David Bailey.
35:39So now you have a pair of head pass rushers and will McDonald and David Bailey who are, you know, guys who
35:45are, I once they're better rushing the passer than defending the run.
35:49McDonald has improved some, but I think both bring a lot of speed.
35:53They both have great get offs. So having those stout defensive tackles really helps.
35:57Um, and I think that was the thinking, right?
36:00Was, so I almost wonder if they like already had their eye on David Bailey when they went out and well, they
36:06knew they were going to take a pass rusher, obviously.
36:09But they get a sweat and Phillips, uh, and then Jamie and Sherwood struggled last year.
36:14Uh, so after getting paid, so you bring back to Mario Davis to kind of settle the linebacker group and have him where the green dot.
36:22And also you add a lot of depth. I was surprised.
36:25I think I'd forgotten all the pass rushers. They signed, uh, Kingsley and Ibarre, Joseph Asai, not stars, but competent pass rushers.
36:32And it's like, you know what? It's front seven.
36:35I, I, I, I don't think it's going to be the best, you know, near like a top 10 front seven, but
36:41I like the way they've started to put this thing.
36:44And Darren Mugee started to like assemble this. We'll get to the backend in a second, but I like that front seven.
36:51I do. Yeah, I agree. I, you know, one of my favorite free agents in this class was David on Yamada and they picked him up as well.
36:59Like I, yeah, yeah. Especially with, you know, they're being kind of an odd front base, but he allows you to do
37:06so many things and he can be effective anywhere from like outside, you know, the shoulder of the tackle.
37:11So from a five all the way inside and your odd front stuff, you can put them in a four, a four
37:18eye, but then he can line up as a one.
37:21Hecker a three and some even front stuff. You can even put them at nose from time to time.
37:27And I think he's a really good kind of microcosm for what they did for the defense.
37:32Like you said, like they didn't add any stars, but I thought they added a lot of usefulness and a lot of
37:38effective, like pro NFL players that raise the floor and make you at worst, like a competent group.
37:44And even the pairing at edge right now, you guys, you kind of got like the speed, the speed juice guys in
37:50McDonald and Bailey, but then you've got an a bar a and a sigh who can, can rush a little bit, but also can set the edge.
37:59It's kind of, you've got like two of each, you can play off of one another and go from there.
38:05I love your comment about Demario Davis. You know, he's not the all pro that he was, you know, with the saints,
38:11but he's still for like, I don't know, lack of a better term, like the adult in the room.
38:17On the defense who will get against the run.
38:20He's still like, he sees things. He's just, and he, he is a player too.
38:24When you watch him, you, you, you can feel his acute sense of like, he has an awareness of his own athletic capabilities at this point.
38:32And he's really such an intelligent player. So smart.
38:35Um, and yeah, and then you can, you can just kind of unleash Sherwood a little bit more to, you know, go get the ball.
38:42Like, I just think, yeah, I, they also brought back by the way, their, uh, defensive line coach who's been with the
38:49Steelers, Carl Dunbar, who obviously the Steelers pass rushers have been not just TJ Watt, but they've done a really good job developing players as well.
38:56Yeah. Her big and high Smith and they're kind of, you might get some benefits from that attention to detail, everything they've done.
39:03And also to Demario Davis, your point there, like the saints were actually a sneaky, good defense, especially down the stretch last year.
39:10And part of that was Demario Davis kind of like running the show and translate and everything.
39:15So again, another floor raiser, like, is this going to be the best defense?
39:20No, but are they good enough to kind of get in your way and get you too many wins to get you out of the number one pick?
39:28Maybe. Maybe. Well, the, the front seven, I had nice words for, I'm a little bit more concerned about this cornerback room.
39:35Uh, it's still Brandon Stevens. They, they signed to Sean Wright, who despite, uh, I had like five or six interceptions.
39:41Yeah. Didn't command much of a market. Uh, they drafted D'Angelo Pons, who's a really fun player.
39:46I view him as slot only. He's like my size, but, uh, and then you've got Azaria Thomas who they drafted last year, I believe.
39:53Uh, Minka Fitzpatrick who honestly make it. Fitzpatrick Andre Sisco is not a bad safety deal.
39:58I will say. So that's improved. I do think though that corner room is not strong.
40:03So I, I do worry about them. Um, cause you know, it's like right.
40:07And Fitzpatrick at points to his career have gotten their hands in the football, but right.
40:12Also gave up a lot of big plays or, or, you know, like he was not as great in coverage last season,
40:19which I think was reflected in the market. So, and then Brandon Stevens, I don't know, man, man, Brandon, Brandon Stevens has
40:25been like, from a metric standpoint, it's like a bad corner going back to his last year in Baltimore.
40:31And it's, and knowing that they're going to get, try him out as, as of now in that room, I think that,
40:38yeah, it really starts with the corner spot. I think safety again, fine floor, you know, this isn't prime Minka, but that's fine.
40:44Cisco is fine. I've never been a big Cisco guy, but you know, fine.
40:49Take them. Pons can be fun. Like maybe he gets his hands on the ball and blow some stuff up in the
40:55run or gets his hands on, uh, balls in the air.
40:59But just, yeah, if you're looking purely at the outside and then especially on top of that, knowing what Aaron Glenn wants
41:05to be from a coverage standpoint, like this is the team last year that, you know, this goes back to his time in Detroit.
41:12Like you're going to get a bunch of single high, you're going to get a bunch of man coverage.
41:18They had the fifth highest cover one rate, uh, in the league last year, 24.1%, but, but then I'm sorry to laugh,
41:25but then in cover one were horrendous. Yeah. So fifth, fifth highest cover one rate, but then they were 32nd at EPA
41:31per pass allowed in cover one and 31st in success rate at 52.7%, which is terrible.
41:36And then their most played coverage was cover three and they were 31st in EPA per pass and cover three and 29th
41:43in success rate there at 54.5% allowed. And it's just like, can this is, that's who Aaron Glenn wants to be.
41:49So does he tweak that or is he going, is he going to leave right in Stevens on islands?
41:55Because I think that's very suspect, but even if we're just keeping it in the division, like that can kind of get
42:01suspect, maybe not for Miami as much, but yeah, like that's just an easy way to kind of pick at this team.
42:08I think that's a Washington disrespect. Sorry. I apologize.
42:11Apologies to, uh, get to the Dolphins receiver group, but yeah, maybe the front is good.
42:15AJ Brown and how you shouldn't play man coverage.
42:18Yeah. Right. What are you going to do? And maybe the front is the front is stout enough that you can play
42:25more too high structures and protect the corners a little bit more.
42:28But then, you know, even last year, their third most played coverage was cover two.
42:33So maybe Glenn would lean into that a little more if the front can hold up, but is the front good enough to do that?
42:40Or is it just, yeah, I think sweat and like, I think the defensive tackle group that we talked about combined with
42:47having Davis who's still good against the run. And I think you can trust this group against what you need to protect those edges.
42:54It's funny. Similar to the conversation we had about New York, where we talked about how last year their linebackers just did
43:01not protect the edges at all who are similar, like a similar build speed speed, right?
43:06Brian Burns and Abdul Carter, this group can, I think.
43:09So, um, yeah, I think that he should consider playing a bit more split safety.
43:13Um, I think his hope is, you know, that they upgraded the pass rush, which was bottom five.
43:18And just every metric. Right. So we'll see. Um, but you know, is a big off season for Darren Mugey.
43:24I like the players that he added. I really do.
43:27I think it's a little bit of a hard team to get your arms around without knowing what version of Gino Smith
43:34or how, how much of the decline will continue if that, or if he'll rebound a bit.
43:39All right. Uh, let's take a break and then come back and talk about a team that we have no quarterback questions about the Buffalo Bills.
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44:51So let's just jump right into it. I'm going to ask you, I think, the defining question of the Bills offense.
44:57The Bills offense, despite frustration at times, still top three and everything.
45:01Very good. Last year. However, and I mentioned this on my pod with Nate, big discrepancy between they faced Mann and Zone.
45:08They went from first NBA play versus Zone to 15th versus Mann.
45:11And they also struggled against the Blitz. Similar reasons there.
45:14So my question for you is this. Does the addition of DJ Moore, the potential health of Kincaid and Palmer, make you
45:21think that this offense can be better against Mann coverage this season?
45:24Yes. The addition of DJ Moore, again, the value.
45:27And I believe you said something similar to what I'm about to say when you spoke with Nate.
45:33Value, I think, is a separate conversation. Like what you gave up for him, what you paid for him, so on and so forth.
45:40His contract. You're not going to. Yeah, forget that.
45:42But at the end of the day. No, I don't either.
45:46But he's a significant upgrade at the wide receiver spot.
45:49And he allows everybody to kind of slot differently.
45:51I don't think he's prime DJ Moore. And I'm not going to allow myself to get sucked into the whole like, well,
45:58look what Joe Brady did with him because I played that game with Curtis.
46:02He was 400 yards per route run versus man coverage.
46:05If he can get close to that, like sure.
46:08I think what scares me a little with DJ Moore is knowing, and I know him leaving Chicago was tied to the
46:15emergence of their younger guys in the wide receiver room and the tight end room.
46:19And then what DJ Moore cost. But it scares me a little bit knowing like a team like the Bears that wants
46:26to surround their franchise quarterback with as much guys and an offensive genius like Ben Johnson is so willing to just be like, no, you can go.
46:34And then hearing like, you know, him not being into some of the detail things.
46:38And that's why it wasn't a great fit with Ben Johnson.
46:42So I do think there are some underlying worries.
46:44But at the end of the day, he's the best receiver on this Bills team.
46:49He's an upgrade from last year. He gives them vertical stretch, horizontal stretch.
46:53He can do gadget stuff. He's not a precise route runner, but he's good downfield.
46:57He's good at the catch point. I think he is an upgrade piece.
47:01And then if you compare that with Dalton Kincaid, hopefully staying healthy, who was their best player last year in terms of EPA per target versus man coverage.
47:09Like he was he was second on the team behind James Cook.
47:13If you're including all the skill position players there at 0.53 EPA per target.
47:17The next receiver behind him was Elijah Moore, but he only had five targets behind him was Tyrell Shavers who had nine.
47:24But he's like, he's like two tenths below that.
47:27I love Tyrell Shavers. There was nobody in that wide receiver room that could really do it.
47:32Palmer was hurt. But when he was in there, he was he was still banged up and not as effective.
47:38But I kind of blame that more on the roster construction, because why are you trying to make Josh Palmer like your true wide receiver one?
47:45He's not built for that world. So, yeah, I think more in and of himself, let alone kind of how he helps everyone slot.
47:53I do think so. I agree with you. I think, you know, I talked about this, but Moore's.
47:58He's in last year. It's kind of similar to what we're talking about with Gino and Reagan, where it's a little bit
48:05of like how much of this was him versus how much of it was his usage and circumstances.
48:10And maybe less about Ben Johnson and more about the quarterback and his style of play, candidly.
48:15But he became just like a sacrificial ex at the end of the year.
48:19They were just asking him to clear stuff out.
48:22And he honestly, I know he gets a lot of crap for loafing.
48:26But for the most part, he did it. I think there's real potential.
48:30Maybe he won't achieve those 2023 numbers I talked about where he was so dynamite against man coverage.
48:35But I do think his skill set, the athleticism, the ability to win at three levels, the yards after the catch, which
48:42is a big part of this offense. You know, I think all of it is kind of what they're looking for.
48:48It helps everyone slot into a better place. And it also, I think, brings up a possibility that I brought up to
48:55you and I asked you some questions about, which is more multiple tight end sets.
48:59You said something. You know, I asked you, why don't you think the Bills have really fun tight ends?
49:05They also have tight ends who are great together.
49:08You have Knox as your all-around guy. Haas is your blocker.
49:11Kincaid as your field stretcher, man coverage, beater, slot.
49:14It's nice, right? This is the league. This is what everybody's doing.
49:1712, 13 personnel. And the Bills, when they did use multiple tight ends, I did 12 and 13.
49:23First in EPA per play tied with the Rams and the Colts.
49:26But they barely used it. Not barely. But they didn't use it a lot, which also helped those rankings, obviously.
49:32And you said something really fascinating to me, which is, you know, Khalil Shakir was their best receiver.
49:38And he doesn't play outside. So I think my next question for you about DJ Moore is, do you think DJ Moore
49:44might actually allow them to lean more on those multiple tight end sets?
49:48Yes, I think so. Because he gives you somebody on the outside that, no disrespect to other Bills receivers from previous years,
49:55but he gives them someone that you have to account for on the outside in some capacity.
50:00He can still win one-on-one, whether it's down the field or, like you said, underneath.
50:04It could be in the intermediate. He gives you someone that you have to account for in some way.
50:10And if you don't, that's fine. Then he can beat you one-on-one and the Bills can take that.
50:16I do think he helps uptick that. You know, we talked about Reggie Gilliam with the Patriots.
50:21He's no longer with the Bills anymore, obviously. The Bills had a 12.7% 22 personnel rate last year, which was first in the league.
50:28And then an 8.9% 21 personnel rate, which was 10th.
50:31Both of those are going to drop just because Gilliam isn't there.
50:34And so your next thought would be, okay, then your other main ones, 11 personnel is going to go up.
50:4012 is going to go up. 13 is going to go up.
50:44If Kincaid is healthy, 12 and 13 should probably go up even more.
50:48I also think you could get Jackson Hawes in some fullback type stuff like he did at Georgia Tech.
50:54And he's such a fun player. Like, that'll skew the personnel usage because he's doing fullback stuff.
50:59Even though it's de facto. Yeah. Yeah, right. Yeah, it'll be like 22 in name only.
51:04Exactly. But he functions well with that. And I do think, you know, they'll be better in 11 personnel this year because
51:10now you can go with 11 and trot out more Palmer and Shakir.
51:14We'll see what you get from Skylar Bell. See what you get from Keon.
51:18But not only with this being like the meta of the league with more tight ends and heavy personnel, I think the
51:25Bills need to live in more 12 and 13.
51:28Because with this 12 and 13 grouping, plus the addition of DJ Moore, you can go condensed and run the football.
51:34You can go condensed and pass it. You can also go spread and run the ball out of spread or go true spread empty.
51:41There's so much multiplicity. Well, it's just, you know, this is always the conversation about that.
51:46And we talk about this a lot when we talk about the Rams and the Seahawks and the most of my 10.
51:52Look, I'm sorry. If Jackson Haas is on those tight ends are on the field with this Bills run game, the power run game.
52:00Yeah. What is a defense? You don't have to play light.
52:03You only led against that group. Fine. Joe Brady's proven that he is willing to take those 5.5 yards a clip.
52:09And so then that's going to lead to explosives because they're going to get those guys on linebackers.
52:15They're going to face, you know, get the matchups that they want.
52:18I just think, which by the way, was the one area where this Bills offense was struggled.
52:23They were not explosive. Josh Allen, look how they massacred my boy.
52:27I think that similar to you saw Seattle really and LA hit explosives when they put tight ends on the field.
52:33There's real potential for that with imagine Moore as your receiver, Kincaid.
52:37You're facing a base defense. Like, you know, I think, yeah, look, to kind of put a pin on this, do I
52:43think DJ Moore is top 10, 15 receiver in the league?
52:47No, I don't. But I think his skill set is what they desperately needed.
52:51My final question about the offense, the line has been such a, it has been the biggest strength of this team outside the quarterback.
52:58And James Cook, who I'm a huge James Cook respecter.
53:01And it bothers me that I feel like at times he has not gotten his appropriate.
53:06I just think he's become such a special running back.
53:09And I love the way he runs. I love his vision.
53:12Literally everything but the fumbling. But the offensive line did lose a guard, Edwards.
53:16Otherwise, it's the same. Do you have any concerns about this group taking?
53:20Because they've been so healthy and so steady and so the identity of this offense outside of Allen.
53:26Do you worry at all? Out of pure superstition, yes, because they have largely been healthy.
53:31And I'm like, eventually that other shoe has to drop a little bit.
53:34I do worry to some degree aside from that, just because you are changing it to a degree, even though it is only one position.
53:42You know, David Edwards gets paid, goes to New Orleans.
53:45But not only was he a starter and a good player, he meant a lot to Deion Dawkins next to him at left tackle.
53:52He did a lot of communicating and adjusting. He was a really smart player.
53:56He was kind of part of that brain trust along with Connor McGovern there next to him at center.
54:02So I think losing Edwards isn't just losing a guard.
54:05It is kind of losing. It's almost like a force multiplier, but in reverse, like you are losing a bit more than that.
54:12And so I'm interested to see what that trickle down looks like.
54:16And that matters because exactly your point for as much as, you know, Josh Allen wins the MVP and Josh Allen is Josh Allen.
54:23And, you know, the conversations around him, what's really made the bills offense go the past couple of years has been the offensive line in the run game.
54:31It's been the emergence of James Cook and James Cook getting better every year with vision and contact balance and yards after
54:38contact and power and still being, you know, the speedy guy who can house it in any moment.
54:43Um, so I do have some trepidation, uh, just because of that change and what the trickle down will be.
54:49But I think on the whole, you know, some, maybe it, you know, from a ceiling perspective, they don't end up being,
54:56you know, a top five offensive line, like the potentially been the past couple of years.
55:01But I still think this is probably and likely a top 10 group if they stay healthy, which also may be a question.
55:08Spencer Brown hurt for the majority of the start of his career that reared its head last year where he started pickup injuries again.
55:15Um, but if they're healthy, I think they're solid and strong.
55:18They're going to mash people and then protect. Yeah.
55:21The other thing I'll add is Joe Brady switching to head coach.
55:24You know, sometimes that can be a little challenging as well.
55:28Right. Because now he's got, I, I, I think that'll be fine.
55:31Can I give you some, uh, can I give you some Dalton Kincaid propaganda that I feel like you'll like.
55:37I love Dalton Kincaid. I, I think he's top seven tight end.
55:41I don't know. I'd have to do the rankings, but yeah, I know, you know, and I, he's limited in line.
55:47We know what he is as a blocker, what you can and can't do with him.
55:52But granted the sample size, you know, he was hurt last year, you know, playing, but banged up on a pitch count.
55:59But out of 141 players last year across wide receivers, tight ends, and running best that had at least 45 targets.
56:05He was second in EPA per target at 0.72.
56:08He was third in yards per route run. He was third in yards per target.
56:12And he was also first in a QB passer rating on those throws when targeted.
56:17So he, that explosive guy, I wanted to bring that up because it tied into one of your points there of, you know, go heavy.
56:24And then trying to tack down field and generate explosives.
56:27He can be that guy. If he's healthy, even if they're not like going heavy, he can still be that because he's the mismatch creator.
56:35But if you can get into those heavy looks, makes in some play action or just straight under center drop back type stuff.
56:41He's shown that propensity before. He just has to stay healthy, which is a big question mark.
56:47Yeah. And his, he missed a few games last year.
56:50I don't remember how many. It was five maybe.
56:52Yeah. I think roughly. I think he played in 12, but even the ones he played, he was still hurt and banged
56:59up and played on a pitch count. Then that's another part of the reason why they didn't have a higher usage of multiple tight endsets.
57:06Of course, in addition to the makeup of the team.
57:09All right. The defense did not make my top 10, unlike the offense.
57:13And is undergoing a lot of changes. So this is, this is interesting.
57:17Personnel wise, you have added some defensive linemen, pass rushers, Bradley Chubb, TJ Parker, player they drafted, really like him.
57:23Gregory. So is still the, you know, old reliable linebacker route remains Dorian Williams, Terrell Bernard, but they did draft Caleb alarms or corner.
57:30He's pretty much the same. Benford, Harrison, uh, Taryn Johnson's gone now, though.
57:34And talk about that in a second. D Alford at nickel.
57:38They drafted, uh, the Ohio state corner, Yvonne, son.
57:40Um, and then safeties, uh, Cole Bishop still there.
57:43TJ Garner, Johnson added, um, most notably, not mostly, but very notably new defensive coordinator, new defense.
57:48And I think this is so interesting. So Jim Leonard comes over from Denver.
57:52Uh, he is a guy who really, really smart people around the league have been talking about for a long time as
57:59like the next dude, like one of what he did in college.
58:02Nate Tice, friend of the show, loves him. He was in Wisconsin for a bit.
58:07Um, so he has a very, very exciting reputation for Bill's fans, but also I bring some questions, which I'll start here.
58:14Um, this is, they're switching to a three, four.
58:16We'll be multiple. What does that mean? Whatever. Uh, it doesn't, however, raise questions for me when I look at this depth
58:23chart, which is, do they have a nose? Oh man.
58:26That is. Cause he got a lot of like at Oliver who I love.
58:30Uh, TJ Sanders, Dion Walker. I guess Landon Jackson is probably gonna play more outside linebacker, right?
58:35I think he might kick into one of like the actual, like, like a four eye, like a traditional defensive end that
58:42he's going to put on more weight and do.
58:44Okay. Fair enough. And it's an important question because the biggest problem with this team last year and nothing is close was
58:51they were horrendous against the run 32nd and DVOA bad in just about every metric except for the explosives, the giants and
58:58the bagels and stuff are worse, but they were manhandled at the line of scrimmage.
59:02Um, felt like every third and short was automatic.
59:05So I think that's why I want to focus here on the nose and the front, because my question for you is, can this defense.
59:12Be better against the run because last year that was, that was ultimately their undoing.
59:17It was their undoing to also throw another stat out there.
59:20They were 32nd in yards after contact per rush allowed at 3.93.
59:24That's the highest per next gen of any defense since 2019.
59:27So absolutely terrible. Um, yeah, that that's the question.
59:30Can they stop the run? And if they do, how Jim Leonard comes on.
59:34And, and I, one of the first times he speaks, he talks about, you know, how you build the defense, you know,
59:41the, the kind of the MO or the starting point is stopping the run.
59:45And knowing they were moving to more of an odd front base, although again, multiple, we're still going to see nickel or
59:51still gonna see four down all that stuff. But knowing what the bills have been to your point, knowing that they were
59:58going to be more multiple, I expected some nose addition.
60:01I hope for someone like Roy Lopez or Kyrus Tonga, or it could have been just anybody.
60:06It could have been a one year, $3 million role player.
60:09Brandon Bean has talked before multiple years in a row about how those, those roles are so easy to acquire yet.
60:16He continues not to get one, which makes you think he doesn't value it.
60:20Um, I think if they're going to stop the run, it's going to have to be with more of a movement based
60:26schemed up type of attack courtesy of Jim Leonard, which is possible.
60:30You can operate with run blitzes and run stunts in games and try and cut things off and make an offense run
60:37through a phone booth and play in that. But there is a risk reward.
60:41If you call the wrong rush at the wrong time or the wrong game, you're caught out.
60:46And all of a sudden a hole becomes an alley that you could drive a bus through and you're screwed.
60:52I just don't look at this front right now and see, you know, whether it's TJ Sanders or Landon Jackson at one, you know, four eye spot.
61:00And then kicking it into Dion Walker at nose at Oliver at the other, your bookends are fine with the edge grouping.
61:07I just don't see how you have a lot of point of attack strength on the interior with guys who are just
61:13not going to get moved at a certain point.
61:16You have to be able to withstand teams trying to run through your face.
61:20And that's going to be the big question. And for as much as people have pointed to Leonard's time in Wisconsin and
61:27like, Oh, like one of his best noses was Keanu Benton and Keanu Benton can move and slash.
61:32You go watch the tape. And for as much as they're doing movement stuff, Keanu Benton and the rest of the guys
61:39on that front, they're playing gap in a half.
61:42They're two gapping. They're playing at the point of attack and holding strong and dropping the knee and splitting double teams or reducing surface area.
61:49Similar thing in Denver. People point like, Oh, DJ Jones, isn't a monster.
61:53DJ Jones can play the run like DJ. Very good against.
61:56Yeah. I was just about to mention him because I was pulling up the depth.
62:01So Denver's defense was top five against the run success rate, all that.
62:05They allowed 1.98 yards before contact per carry last year, which was second best in the NFL.
62:10The bills were 27th in that. So it is right.
62:13Like when we think about Denver and that defense, we think about all the blitzing and the pressure and the speed and the man coverage.
62:20But the run defense is the foundation on which that, you know, allowed them to do all of that.
62:26And I think that's the big question with like, you know, we can get to, Hey, like, well, first of all, it's
62:33so interesting too, because the players are so different.
62:35In Buffalo, like this is a defense that's built for Sean McDermott fall.
62:39Yes. Not what we saw in Denver. So I think it's a unique, I don't want to sound like I'm, I I'm saying it's a miscast.
62:47I just think it's a unique challenge for Leonard, right?
62:50Which is what are you going to do with the players at your disposal?
62:54Because Nick Bonito is not walking through that door.
62:57Patrick Sertan is not walking through that door. Christian Benford is an awesome zone corner.
63:01Are you going to play more man? Yeah. Yeah.
63:04And I think he can't, I'm not saying he can't, but like, it's a fair question.
63:09My point, you know, these rushers that you have are more like the games, like Rousseau, TJ Parker, who's a player I
63:15really liked, by the way, who they drafted. I was very, I talked about him in my draft pod with Dominique.
63:22I ended up really liking his game, but he's a power guy a little bit more, you know, like, so just like
63:28the Sean McDermott rushers of old, like Bradley Chubb.
63:31It's the same thing. Power compression. Undersized defensive linemen, power edges, corner, your best corners and zone.
63:36So I'm just kind of intrigued by how it all comes together.
63:40I think you could argue Hairston might be better with a little bit more man.
63:44And then, you know, I, I thought Cole Bishop was fantastic last season.
63:48Hopefully safety is a bit of an upgrade with Garner Johnson, but I, this is an even story.
63:54I just, I'm very intrigued. I think of all the coaching changes around the NFL, this one might be up there in terms of.
64:01I'm like, damn, like, what are you, what are you gonna do with these guys?
64:05I sounds. No, no, that's. And I mean, granted, I'm, I'm hyper fixated on this team, but I, I, I personally have
64:12loved Jim Leonard since his time at Wisconsin. I just, he was so ahead of the curve with when it came to
64:18philosophy and identity and simulated pressures and creepers and attacking.
64:21And how did this comes from, you know, his time with Rex Ryan and learning from him, but attacking formation and rules and protections and alignment.
64:29And it could be, you know, where the back is.
64:32We're focusing every time the back is here. We're doing a, if the back is here, we're doing B.
64:38And he's so good at teaching that. Um, I had a tweet, I found it when they hired him.
64:44I had a tweet back in like 2022 or 2021 where I was like, man, it'd be great if Jim Leonard could become the bills defensive coordinator.
64:52Cause I just thought he's, he's so much the antithesis of Sean McDermott from a matchup standpoint where each, each week he's crafting a game plan.
65:00Based off of the opponent's strengths. And he's trying to mitigate what you do best, amplify your weaknesses.
65:05And like he says, after every drive, make the offense, go back to the tablets and look up and be like, what's going on out there?
65:13How do we adjust? He doesn't want to be a counter puncher.
65:16He wants to punch first and make you have to counter, which has been the opposite of what Sean McDermott has done
65:23for a lot of his tenure in Buffalo. Though he's had success, but in the playoffs, it's been rough.
65:29But yeah, like I, I love all that in theory.
65:32And I value Jim Leonard. My biggest question is with the body types that they have and the archetypes that they still
65:38have defensively, how much of that ceiling can be reached?
65:41I think he's a floor raiser, but I think the ceiling is a bit capped this year.
65:46Um, and I think if they have success against the run, like if they quote unquote fix the run defense, and if
65:53they have the success that they need to have for this team to accomplish its championship goals, a lot of that heavy
66:00lifting is going to be done by Jim Leonard schematically.
66:03It's why too, or like we go back to the more acquisition, like you already had a top three offense and this
66:09could be the thing that puts you over the top.
66:12But from an, like an allocation of resources standpoint, um, I do wonder if perhaps you could have given Leonard, you know,
66:19like I think gotten made a, I wonder if it is a team that should have done their big swing on defense
66:25instead of offense because the offense is already, but you know.
66:29No, I did the same. I did around that time, like one of my episodes in free agency, I was just playing
66:35this game of like all the money they allocated to certain guys in free agency and who they could have had instead
66:42at like, I was like, you could have had Roy Lopez and Leo Chanel instead of this.
66:47And all these different combinations that I felt would have in the longterm fixed what they needed.
66:52But I trust Jim Leonard more than I trust myself, but I do have, I do have a lot of questions because
66:59exactly to your point, I think your question and what I'm asking and what a lot of folks are asking is like,
67:05okay, you had this glaring weakness in this glaring hole.
67:08And you didn't really address it unless you're addressing it by bringing Jim Leonard in.
67:13And he's like, no, don't worry about it. I can fix it.
67:16I don't need this piece and that piece. I can fix it some other way, which is possible.
67:22Again, they can do it with scheme. That's just a heavy ask to constantly have to win with movement to have to constantly win with calls.
67:30It's tough. It's tough to just be X's and O's as opposed to Jimmy's and Joe's.
67:34And I know that makes the, it's not like the bills have no players on defense, which they don't.
67:40They've got some good guys. Don't think they necessarily have the archetype side, like, or the top tier guys.
67:46Yeah. They have a lot of good. Rousseau is like always good.
67:49Yes. Brentford is really good. Yes. And Oliver can be really good if he stays healthy.
67:54Like his, his high highs. He was so sick.
67:57He was so good. And that goes back. He didn't like that.
68:01He was in massive absence. Yeah. He was great last year when he played the single best game of any safety.
68:07Against Kansas city. Just balling out. I think I was watching with NFL life.
68:11We were like, what is happening? Like, why? Like, what did the spirit of Ed Reed, like freaky Friday, Cole Bishop's body was insane.
68:18But no, I'm high on him. I think he's a really good player.
68:22Garry Johnson, you know, he'll be good for the year before everyone turns on him.
68:27Right. He's a wild card man with what he can do.
68:30But that's a great call with Bishop because I think Bishop and Terrell Bernard, I think are two players that, and I think Michael Hoyt as well.
68:38We'll see how healthy Michael Hoyt is coming off the Achilles.
68:41But I think Hoyt, Bishop, and Bernard are the three individual players that would see the biggest uptick in performance because of
68:48what Jim Leonard is going to ask them to do.
68:51He's going to blitz those linebackers a bunch, whether it's in Sims, creepers, or true blitzes, whether it's run or pass blitzes.
68:58Benford's a really good blitzer. Don't let guys get to the second level and maul him and then letting Cole Bishop come down to the box more.
69:06They're probably going to play more single high coverage.
69:08It allows Cole Bishop to be more of that box safety like he was in Utah.
69:13Oliver, like hypothetically, could benefit from it. Right. Everyone's making the Zach Allen comp, but DJ Joe didn't go with it.
69:19So it's like, yeah. Leonard did mention that Oliver, though, in one of his pressers talking about like getting him opportunities to
69:26play one on one, which I think will happen.
69:29Like Leonard's going to get opportunities to face guards one on one, maybe some tackles.
69:33They can do some stuff with him. He's he's a really effective player.
69:37He just has to stay healthy. And he's another question mark for the defense full of question marks.
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71:08Wayfair, every style, every home. All right. Miami Dolphins, very different objectives for this season with them.
71:13This is a rebuilding. I said this when I taped with Ryan, I will be honest with you.
71:19When I got to the defense, I was learning about some of these players for the very first time.
71:24I don't know about your experience, like the corners and like, I know Chris Johnson, but like some of the depth, some
71:31of the, it was a, it was a ride.
71:34This has been kind of widely seen as the worst receiver group in football.
71:38Uh, I, so just that group, Jalen Tolbert, two, two out.
71:41Well, Malik Washington, they drafted Chris spell who is a player I liked a lot, but probably won't play until mid season
71:48because the injury tight ends are Greg Dulcich. Who I've always liked, uh, will cast Mark who they drafted a chance still there.
71:55Um, and then the offensive line is very interesting to me.
71:58There's probably the most interesting part of this group, uh, outside of Malik Willis, Patrick Paul, who's been very good at left tackle.
72:05They drafted Caden Proctor. Who's going to play guard Aaron Brewer, who is one of the best centers in the NFL.
72:11Sabanaya kicks over to the right side. They're hoping that'll help things.
72:15And then Austin Jackson really just needs to stay healthy.
72:18All right. So here's where I think I'm conflicted a little bit because I look at this offense.
72:23Sorry, by the way, an offense that was, uh, did I write it down?
72:27Very good. Like they were 11th and run DVO last year and 25th and pass, right?
72:32With Mike McDaniel notably. Um, however, okay. So I look at this offense and when I think about like, what would it
72:39take for it to not be horrendous and from Lake Willis to have a chance out there?
72:44I think power run game quarterback, you know, put them on the move and then you get, uh, play action opportunities off of that.
72:51Think about Malik Willis and green Bay big throws outside the numbers, but it's all oriented around this like creative and, um, downhill run game.
72:59The office coordinator is Bobby slow. I was waiting for the, I, I, I'm like, I, I think that's where I'm like
73:05struggling a little bit because I do think there's a world in which this is a decent to good run game.
73:11The offensive line, which has good players comes together.
73:14Willis is part of that run game and he's explosive.
73:17This is going to be more, he's got a great arm, but I don't, I I'm sure what I'm struggling with Anthony
73:24is to see how, what we have seen from Bobby slow, who is the offensive coordinator in Houston comes from the Shanahan school.
73:31I struggle to see like how that meshes with the players that they have on their roster.
73:36This is not a Shanahan offense. Like the, the death chart does not demand a Shanahan offense is what I'm saying.
73:42Yeah, that's fair. I'm, I'm in a similar boat.
73:45I, I've loved for so many years what Mike McDaniel did as a run game designer and caller.
73:50And for as much as his time in Miami, you know, so much of it was an understandably.
73:56So it's conversations around Tua and Tyreek and waddle.
73:58And when everything was bad, that was the focus when everything was good.
74:02That was the focus. But like you said, like he, their offense, their run game has been really creative.
74:08Like how McDaniel would create leverage, how he'd use motion and personnel.
74:11And then, you know, kind of use his own tendencies against defenses and manipulate them and confuse that run game was so good.
74:18And if I dropped Malik Willis into that offense, I'd be like, you know what, even without the receivers, I might feel kind of decent.
74:26But then with Bobby Slowick, yeah, I just don't know what they lean into.
74:30I think what, what you said makes the most sense.
74:33You essentially kind of trot out Malik Willis into a similar offense that he had with, with Green Bay, you know, although
74:40Green Bay has some really, LeFleur and what his crew were doing last year and really the past couple of years, really
74:46creativity with some of their gap scheme stuff, the spinner stuff that they would do with love and get to the run game.
74:53But I think you pound the rock as much as you can lean into Devin Achan who, I don't know if this is hot takey.
75:01Like I personally think if Devin Achan has a successful year this year, I think he should be locked into one of
75:07the top five running backs in the league. Like I think he's phenomenal 2025 for as much as he's a speed guy, you know, third and explosive runs.
75:16And he's so fast. He was first in yards after contact in 2025.
75:20And he was in a similar spot his rookie year in 2023, you know, yards per carry, just everything he does.
75:26And so much of it is tied to the speed, but that's what I think you lean into.
75:31You pay Devin Achan. You've got Aaron Brewer who really exploded last year.
75:35Lean into the zone run game. Let Aaron Brewer climb to the second level.
75:39Seven Nia is fine as a run blocker. You guys should be okay on the ground.
75:44And then you just pound, pound, pound, and then you go play action.
75:48Try to set up explosives. Let Malik Willis do some stuff with his legs.
75:52And I think slow it can do that, but I think the dressing of it and the creativity of it is kind of lackluster at this stage.
76:00It's funny because Kevin Petulo is also there. And I have consistently said Malik Willis reminds me of Jalen Hurts.
76:06But Eagles fans are hearing that and being like, you want, you want our 2025 offense?
76:11Yeah. Cause you know, again, to kind of elaborate on what I was saying, like, you know, with Slowik and that offense,
76:18you want to, he wants to attack the middle of the field.
76:21He wants, like, that's not Malik Willis's game. He, I'm not saying he's incapable of it.
76:26And I think one thing, cool thing in green Bay with him was you saw him evolve as a quarterback from over
76:33the, but it's just not who he like, you know, it's similar to Hurts where it's like his, this, his superpowers as
76:39a quarterback are those go balls outside the numbers.
76:42And then it more so than Hurts more. So that, I mean, Malik Willis is a special runner and this was a
76:49huge, probably reason why I was high on him in the draft.
76:52And I took a lot of heat for this.
76:55And I was miss like the, there's a video saying I wanted to see ox to draft him, which everybody is like points to it was day two.
77:03The video is from day two and everybody pretends like it was ahead of the first round.
77:08Sorry to get defensive here. It was on day two.
77:11And I was like, this dude's fallen. Like take him in the third round.
77:16That's what I was saying, whatever. But, um, the internet remembers everything forever.
77:20Misremembers. Yeah. Misremember. He is a really, really special runner.
77:23Yeah. He is dynamic. He is explosive. He has good vision.
77:26He is strong as hell. Um, so I, you know, if that's not a massive part of this offense, what are you doing?
77:33Tush push it, man. Like bring that over. Yeah.
77:35Lean into the legs. And I don't care if it's design stuff.
77:39I don't care if it's a big ass offensive line.
77:42I'm looking at it right now. Outside of Brewers.
77:45Caden Practor. Have you seen that guy? He's huge, huge, but also explosive and can move.
77:50So mash teams on the ground and then play action bootleg stuff, which is Shanahan system stuff all day.
77:55Slow. It can do that all day. You get Willis on the move, let him throw or just tuck it and run, take advantage of the legs.
78:03If you can create some explosives downfield or even on granted, I know Lafleur is a good, um, I know he's kind
78:10of taking some flack, but I still value him a lot as a play caller and designer.
78:15There were some throws last year from Lequel, especially in that first game that he took over against Chicago where he's hitting
78:22some outbreakers, like 15, 20 yards downfield. And the timing is perfect.
78:25Some of the ball placement isn't great, but I was like, this is real progress.
78:30And then that same game, he's dropping back play action.
78:33Nothing's there. Let me tuck it. Let me shake this guy, run through this guy, 10 yards, nine yards here and there.
78:39I think there's a way for them to cobble some stuff on the ground and just kind of leaning into the legs
78:46of Willis and HN and the offensive line, which isn't a horrible way to go.
78:50I hope Chris Bell plays. Cause I liked him a lot.
78:54Big, uh, true X can get you yards after the catch really hard to bring down.
78:59I think you'd be a really nice fit with Willis if he plays.
79:03Uh, and then suddenly you're like, all right, I don't need to, to ammo as my number two.
79:08If they have no, could be that he, bell was one of those dudes that as soon as you saw like him
79:15in college at Louisville, it was just one of those, like, oh yeah, he looks like he's in the NFL already.
79:21Like he's just built. Yeah. Um, all right. Defensively.
79:24It's funny. Cause it's like, um, it's a funny defense.
79:27Cause it's like bad, bad, bad, bad. And then they randomly are just stacked at linebacker.
79:31Oh, Jordan Brooks was so good last year. But it was a Brooks Dodson.
79:36They drafted everybody's favorite linebacker, Jacob Rodriguez. They signed Willie gay junior.
79:39I'm looking at, I'm like, damn y'all like build the, uh, they drafted guys.
79:43I like Chris Johnson, who I loved out of San Diego state at corner.
79:48I mean, I, I did not know like, all right.
79:51Safety. Lonnie Johnson, Dante trader, Michael tag. I don't know.
79:54Um, uh, half leaves calling the place. He's their head coach.
79:57They brought in Sean Dugan as a defensive coordinator.
80:00I think for there's the questions I have for this defense are.
80:03And this is really what matters. Just, can you develop the young players and, and have a group you feel good about?
80:10Can you get chop Robinson back to how he looked as a rookie?
80:14Can Kenneth grant, who's your first round draft pick.
80:16Take a step forward. Zach. I see there's good.
80:19We know that, um, can Jacob Rodriguez become a starter because that would be really helpful, especially if they decide to trade Jordan Brooks, which is a possibility.
80:27Uh, can Chris Johnson hit the ground running? If the answer to half of those questions is yes, then that's a success this season to me.
80:35Cause this is not a good defense. That's super fair.
80:38I, and then tying it into half Lee, the Packers defense, especially in 2024, like they, but even in last year too,
80:45they had some of like really cool cover two and Tampa two rotations and spins.
80:49They do like inverted Tampa two stuff and the safeties are holding their spot literally until the snap.
80:55And you're watching Evan Williams come screaming down and McKinney and everything they were doing.
80:59They had so many cool coverage rotations and looks and even some SIM pressures and blitzes.
81:04And then they got Parsons and I was like, man, this is going to be great.
81:09And then they lose Parsons and like all the, the on off splits are crazy.
81:13Like the whole defense fell apart, which made me question half Lee significantly.
81:17And now he goes to Miami where there is a talent discrepancy on this defense.
81:22And so I'm not like, okay, how much do we get some cool designer stuff on the back?
81:27And does he have the guys that can do that cool designer stuff?
81:31And so I'm in a similar boat with you to just get to the, the base, the baseline basic level of, okay,
81:38you've got some young guys who could be, but more importantly, need to be pieces for you.
81:43You need chop Robinson to be something you would, it'd be great.
81:46If Kenneth grant could be something, Chris Johnson needs to be a guy for you.
81:51Jordan Brooks is your best defender. And again, was absolutely phenomenal last year.
81:55Um, tie for six and stops first and total tackles second and solo tackles.
81:59And then he only had a 4.6% miss tackle rate, which was the second lowest among 94 qualifying linebackers.
82:05But if you're going to ship him out a guy who did pretty well for you and helped you kind of, let's
82:11say hit a pause though, because that's a, would you, or cause you got to have a young, a core at some point.
82:18I'm, I'm personally going to keep, I'm keeping Jordan Brooks.
82:21Yeah. I would keep him. I'd use him to kind of steady the ship, right?
82:26The ship. And also there's teach Jacob or Regan kind of bring him along.
82:30And there was a stretch last year where, and I think it was going into that, the Pittsburgh game in Pittsburgh, the
82:36dolphins kind of started to put to put a run together.
82:40And it was like, are they going to come back from the grave and make a push to the playoffs?
82:46And part of that was, is this going to happen?
82:49And part of it was the defense was playing really well.
82:52And a good chunk of that was Jordan Brooks week after week, setting everybody up, making stops against the pass and against the run.
82:59I, at a certain point when you're rebuilding, even if you're like some guys, yes, you need somebody to show everybody the
83:06way to be some, like a light in the dark.
83:09And I love line, like having a veteran linebacker.
83:12Yeah. Cause he's, you know, I generally it's a position that takes guys a second in the NFL.
83:17I'm not, I liked Rodriguez, but he might have his ups and downs.
83:21He probably will early on. So I feel like if there's one position, you know, where you're like, let's keep him.
83:27We have, so then you've got your, you got sealer, you got Brooks.
83:31Those are your two guys. Good start. Yeah. And all the other stuff I talked about the young players, like, let's see
83:38if we can get Robinson, Grant Johnson. You know, Juju Brent's is an interesting guy.
83:42Cause he was, I think he's got, he's very athletic.
83:45He's at points within Indiana. Yeah. He was in Indianapolis.
83:48I think he was like a pretty high traffic.
83:51If I remember correctly, it was a second rounder.
83:54If I believe I liked him so much at Kansas state.
83:57He was so fast. He was just such a good player.
84:00And I, he went to Indianapolis and he had some flashes where I was like, Oh, solid top two corner.
84:06And then fell out of favor there. And now he's in Miami.
84:10All right. Let's wrap with a quick question on the dolphins.
84:13What is a successful 2026 season for the Miami dolphins look like to you?
84:17Oh man. I think from a fan perspective, it's like getting the first pick.
84:21Um, I think it's. But the Willis thing is so complicated.
84:25That's what I'm saying. The Willis thing. One thing that makes no sense with everything else they did.
84:30You're like, what are we doing here? Let's get rid of waddle and then like pay a chance.
84:36And then bring in Willis. Like, how do we evaluate Willis?
84:39But would it be good if Willis is a hit?
84:42Cause then you already have your quarterback maybe, and you can dip into other stuff.
84:46Um, I think success for them is the run game continues to succeed, you know, and the foundation of the offense becomes,
84:53Hey, we have a good offensive line and a top five running back, and we can fit some other stuff around that.
85:00That's a great place to start. And then success on defense.
85:03The young guys start to take a jump, right?
85:06You've got, like you said, sealer and Brooks, I think are both within your spine and both solidified guys that are good players be on your defense.
85:14Can you get the young guys around them to also, like you said, who becomes part of that core right now?
85:20It's Brooks and sealer. Is it also chop and grant?
85:23Is it one of them? Is it Chris Johnson?
85:26Is it Jacob Rodriguez starting to emerge? And now it's Rodriguez and Brooks.
85:30Like, does Juju Brent's kind of get some more of that early Indianapolis form and Kansas state form?
85:35And you might have something at corner a little bit and you maybe him and Johnson both work out.
85:41It's gotta be the offensive line and the run game and HN are solid and you can build around that going forward.
85:47And then the defense, some guys start to emerge that can become part of your young core.
85:52Yeah. I think all of that. And it would be great if you watch the season from Malik Willis.
85:58First of all, what I said earlier, I think it would be great if Bobby Slovic showed some creativity in the run
86:05game in particular, because that should be the strength of this team.
86:08And then using that run game to then get those one-on-ones outside and let Willis shine and doing what he does, which is pushing the lot outfield.
86:16But I think from a kind of 30,000 foot perspective, a great feeling as a Dolphins fan would be to see Malik
86:23Willis and think, man, even in spite of this receiving group, he still showed some stuff so that, because he's on a super affordable contract.
86:31If he looks even decent this year, given his circumstances, I think that's a huge win because then next year you can
86:37upgrade those circumstances without having to pick quarterback and everyone else is going to want a quarterback.
86:42Imagine then like you get a decent season from Willis and then you add a true right receiver one next year.
86:49And if the run game looks as good as that to me would be a win because this is not going to
86:55be a top 10, like you just, you know, everyone's realistic about what is going on here and what he's up against.
87:02But if he shows something this year in spite of that, that would be massive.
87:06So I think that's what you're hoping for. If you're a Dolphins fan.
87:10All right. Dolphins. We talk, that's gotta be the most any national podcast time on the Dolphins right now.
87:16Which is like a shame for Devin A. Chan is really sick, like on offense.
87:20And it's going to be tough. Anthony, can you tell folks where they can check out your work?
87:26Sure. You can find me on Twitter at pro underscore underscore ant.
87:29That's pro two underscores A-N-T. You can find me on blue sky at pro ant.
87:34No underscores there. Just P-R-O-A-N-T. And then I. Oh, yeah, pro ant.
87:37Yeah. I wanted to just play off my first and last name.
87:41I would always have noted the Twitter one because I just wanted to do pro ant.
87:46But apparently there already is one. And then I was like, I'll do one underscore.
87:50There was also a person with one underscore. I was like, that's so nice.
87:55I got to add two. And then I host a show, like you mentioned at the beginning, called Disguise Coverage.
88:01Live every Tuesday night, 9 p.m. Eastern on YouTube.
88:03And then it's uploaded to all the podcasting apps and platforms after.
88:07I also co-host a show called The Film Room that's on Wednesdays.
88:10Everything I do is film-based, analytics-based. X's and O's scheme and structure and all that kind of stuff.
88:16If you're a Bills fan, I really recommend checking out Cover One in general.
88:20And all of the content that you guys put out is really, really good.
88:24Bills fans are blessed, man. Bills might have sneakily one of the best media, just like the bloggers and the beat reporters.
88:31And not surprising because the fans are so crazy.
88:34But there's a lot of really good stuff to listen to and read if you're Bills fans.
88:39But Cover One is certainly amongst the best. All right.
88:42Before we wrap, as always, we will be ranking the AFC East.
88:45I'll go first to make it easier for you.
88:48Thank you. So like I said, it's obviously a tale of two halves.
88:52Pats versus Bills. This is going to sound like a cop-out answer.
88:55But I'm going to go Bills over Pats because of the schedule.
88:59Okay. With the caveat that I think these two teams split when they play and are very evenly matched.
89:05And then Jets Dolphins for me is very easy.
89:07I appreciate you going first. This helps me out immensely.
89:10I'm so superstitious. It's in my social bios. Not superstitious, but a little stitious.
89:15But I am very superstitious. Yeah. I'm going to start from the bottom.
89:19So Dolphins 4, Jets 3, Patriots 2, Bills 1.
89:21I just think the – and it's more from a sample size perspective.
89:25And you even mentioned it with the Bills. Even – I was very frustrated with the Bills offense even at spurts last year.
89:32And it's still – any way you slice it, they were still like a top four across the entire board for all these things.
89:39So if DJ Moore is just halfway decent, if Dolphins Kinkade just stays halfway healthy, they're probably even better than they were last year.
89:46And I think Jim Leonard raises the floor. But I'm going to sing both.
89:51I think they split with the Patriots. And I think it's close.
89:54There's maybe like a one or two game difference at the top one away.
89:58I don't think they're – or either way. I don't think they're going to get too far away from each other.
90:05I can just see the imaginal world in which that Patriots run game is improved and the Bills run.
90:10Yeah, yeah. I really want to know – But these rankings aren't about playing each other.
90:15We're literally trying to predict how the division shakes now.
90:18And I just feel the Patriots schedule's a big one.
90:21Yeah. All right. Well, that's the AFC East. I will be back next week to do the NFC West.
90:27Ooh. Dogfight. Big dogs. Yeah. Also, if you are a fan of Love Island, my coverage continues with David Dennis Jr.
90:33Check out viewer discretion on YouTube or wherever you get pods.
90:37Thank you, as always, to my friends at Omaha Productions who make this show.
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