NFL Week 7 Betting Preview

Brown returned from injury but there is uncertainty about whether he can catch a pass this week, suggesting lingering concerns about his availability or effectiveness.

Alec Pierce is out for the Colts, limiting their offensive weapons against Minnesota; his absence means the Colts' receivers will have limited options without him.

Evan flags uncertainty around Baker Mayfield's status for Tampa Bay's game against Carolina, noting the Winfield question mark and additional concerns about Abuka's concussion and foot injury, plus an illness ripping through the Buccaneers' locker room, all of which weigh against backing Tampa in this spot.

Robinson could have a big game against the 49ers; the 49ers haven't really seen many teams that can run the ball, and with Upton Stout (their nickel) potentially missing and Bosa likely out again, Robinson has a favorable matchup to exploit the run game.

Kyle Pru notes Bijan is fantastic and the Falcons are very good as front runners who can keep feeding him; last week he was ripping apart the Bears' defense but didn't get the ball enough because the Falcons were in comeback mode, suggesting volume upside when Atlanta gets a lead.

Nix is playing horrendously and is a fade candidate; his ADOT (average depth of target) is the lowest in the NFL at approximately 5 letters (matching his name length), indicating he is not pushing the ball downfield; the Cardinals' four wins have all come by one possession, suggesting they are overperforming relative to Nix's poor play.

Purdy is 3-6 ATS in domed stadiums; the game is being officiated by Clay Martin, under whom favorites are 42-61 ATS, and Shanahan is 0-4 ATS with Martin, suggesting unfavorable conditions for the 49ers.

Evan notes that Bryce Young has faced Todd Bowles' Buccaneers defense six times and is 5-1, with Carolina averaging just 15 points per game in those matchups, suggesting a favorable historical edge for Young in this spot.

Kyle Pru says Stroud is playing extremely well at an extremely high level, looks like rookie Stroud, and is top 10 in pretty much every metric; he's third in air yards and now has his full complement of weapons with Nico back and Tank Dell potentially returning, positioning him to rip apart the bad Giants secondary with weather assistance.

Williams is playing within the structure of Ben Johnson's offense and has taken a significant leap; he's gone from dead last in completion percentage over the past two years to number one, with a really low ADOT, showing he's finally adapted to Johnson's system while still making explosive off-script plays when needed.

Case Keenum and the Texans were the last team the Browns beat as a road favorite, which came in December 2023; this is the most recent road favorite win for Cleveland.

Lamb appeared to quit or check out during stretches of the Cowboys' recent game, particularly in the fourth quarter; this reflects broader concerns about the Cowboys' effort and focus, with Lamb and other star players not delivering consistent effort throughout games.

Prescott has been dominant against division opponents, particularly the Eagles, and has a strong track record in these matchups; this is a key advantage for the Cowboys in their Monday night game against Philadelphia.

Kyle Pru notes that Daniel Jones will have no recourse against Minnesota's blitz in the Vikings-Colts game; the Vikings defense should feast on Jones under pressure, as they have feasted on many quarterbacks this season.

Derek Carr and the Saints offense have been limited; Carr has been really limited the last couple games, and the Saints got bailed out with special teams last week.

Kyle Pru references Derrick Henry's fumble in the Browns' lucky upset win over Baltimore, noting the Titans got a short-field touchdown off the turnover, suggesting the Browns' recent success was aided by turnover luck rather than dominant play.

Kyle Pru is highly critical of Watson, saying people have rushed to praise him because he completed a couple short passes against Tampa but he's been awful overall; he has seven touchdowns and two interceptions but also six big-time throws and 11 turnover-worthy plays, takes way too many sacks, can't read a blitz, and his eyes duck, with turnovers coming.

Kyle Pru expects Watson to turn the ball over and take a ton of sacks against Tennessee; he won't be able to beat the Titans through the air without making mistakes or taking a couple sacks, which Pru believes will be the difference in a Titans win.

Kyle Pru fades Watson as a road favorite; he states 'I have to fade him' because of Watson's poor track record in these spots, noting Cleveland's last win as a road favorite came in December 2023 against Case Keenum and the Texans.

May is playing better after the Buffalo game significantly boosted his confidence; he had the yips and wasn't seeing it before, but is now starting to play much better and showed no ill effects in recent play.

Kyle Pru notes that Gardner Minshew is better than Derek Carr at this stage of Carr's career, but the Browns still lost when facing Minshew as a road favorite.

Kyle Pru notes that Geno Smith will be in predictable third-down situations against Kansas City, where Spags will bring pressure and Smith can't handle it; Seattle's offense has been broken partly because they can't run the ball, leaving Smith exposed in obvious passing situations.

Kyle Pru projects McCarthy will struggle against Houston's defense built to shut down bad quarterbacks; McCarthy has been miserable in his career when under pressure (minus 10% completion percentage over expectation), lacks timing with his entire offense and playbook, and won't move the ball against Houston's salty defense despite his legs potentially suiting their desired scheme.

Hurts' absence from the Eagles lineup is a critical loss; Nick Sirianni has never won a game as a home underdog (0-8 straight up), and the Eagles' offense is a complete disaster with unblocked pressures at an astronomically high rate and poor quarterback protection.

Hurts is out for the Eagles-Cowboys game; his absence is a significant loss to the locker room and team leadership, as he is described as a big force in the Eagles organization despite not being an MVP-caliber player.

Kyle Pru trusts JSN to make enough plays for Seattle against Kansas City; he believes JSN will be a key weapon for the Seahawks offense in this matchup.

Evan notes that Zach Taylor, with a three-plus day rest advantage over his opponent, has lost six in a row outright, with the last win coming in 2023; this streak is remarkable given Burrow's presence as quarterback, suggesting systemic issues beyond individual talent.

Kyle Pru and Evan both highlight Jordan Love's strong recent play; Love has been playing really well with excellent ball placement on deep throws (Golden had a drop that would have gone up 14-0), is top-tier in downfield passing, and has dealt with drops from receivers, suggesting his performance is being masked by receiver issues rather than his own play.

Allen is described as ridiculous; he had a notable flip pass of 20 yards against the Rams, and the Bills played well overall, with the Raiders staying competitive despite the loss.

Justin Fields was the Browns' starting quarterback when they were a road favorite against the Jets last November; the Browns lost that game 27-20, contributing to their poor record as road favorites.

Justin Jefferson (Addison) practiced for the Vikings coming off their bye week, indicating he will be available for the Colts game; the Vikings are expected to be much healthier.

Kenneth Walker left Seattle to join Kansas City and has jump-started the Chiefs offense; he's been arguably the best back in the NFL this year and is setting up play action through increased run volume, contrasting with Seattle's inability to run the ball which has hurt their play action.

Walker is expected to be targeted out of the backfield by the Chiefs as a weakness in the Seahawks defense; McDonald is aware of this tendency and the Chiefs plan to attack the Seattle defense with Walker in pass-catching situations.

Cousins and the Falcons offense have opportunities to move the ball against the 49ers; Cousins went 29-39 for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a recent game, and the Falcons' explosive plays with Cousins and Robinson are dangerous.

Kyle Pru highlights that the Vikings offense has been one of the worst in the NFL statistically this year, but there were some signs of improvement against the Saints where Murray was using his legs; coming off a bye with more time to work and get reps, the question is whether you trust the Vikings offense enough to lay six and a half points against the Colts.

Cousins and the Seahawks face a Chiefs offense that is exposed, especially with wide receiver injuries; the Seahawks defense will force methodical movement down the field, which could limit explosive plays and force the Chiefs into red zone situations where the Seahawks have been unlucky defensively.

Kyle Pru assesses Lamar Jackson's status as limping today and not practicing, and does not think he's going to play; market says he obviously doesn't play; Pru would have Ravens as slightly above a field goal at full strength with fully healthy Lamar, but if Lamar is out, Bengals should be a small one-to-one-and-a-half point favorite.

Stafford hasn't looked good this season; the Rams' offense is struggling despite their Super Bowl odds, and Stafford's performance is a concern as the team faces a difficult upcoming schedule with injuries to key receivers and offensive linemen.

Evans' injury is significant for the 49ers offense; he's averaging .33 EPA per target, the highest in the next-gen era, and serves as the critical safety valve and contested-catch target on third down. The 49ers' offense with and without him was night and day in their last game, and his absence cannot be understated.

Mahomes is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog hovering around 7 points; in those spots, the Chiefs typically win by 4-6 points, suggesting they are undervalued at 3-point underdogs in Seattle; Mahomes is also 10-1 ATS with road dogs of 7.7 points, indicating strong performance in similar situations.

Nacua is the second-highest in EPA per target at .25 in the next-gen era, behind only Mike Evans, indicating his value as a receiver in the 49ers offense.

The Eagles are using Shahid (likely Saquon Barkley) in some situations to diversify their offense, but the overall offensive scheme remains problematic with limited success after the catch and reliance on hitch routes.

Stefon Diggs (Darasol) should be back for the Vikings coming off their bye week, contributing to their expected health improvements heading into the Colts game.

T.J. Hockenson (Hawkinson) practiced for the Vikings coming off their bye week, indicating he will be available for the Colts game; the Vikings are expected to be much healthier.

McKee, starting in place of Hurts, looked bad under pressure in his Eagles debut; despite being viewed as a potential late-bloomer prospect coming out of Stanford, he did not perform well when the Eagles offense faced pressure situations.

Kyle Pru explains that the biggest difference between Ravens with and without Lamar is that Huntley doesn't throw it downfield; they play within a box with no explosiveness, relying on the run game with everything short, which limits offensive upside and supports an under bet.

Tyler Warren is a question mark for the Colts heading into the Vikings game; his status is uncertain as the Colts deal with various injuries.

Kyle Pru notes that the Chiefs have wide receiver injuries with Xavier Worthy and others banged up; their tackles are also banged up, which limits their ability to move the ball against Seattle's defense.