0:00Lisa, tell them about our new show We have a new podcast, it's called Don't Lie to Me I'm Lexi Iwanu, we're
0:07two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have
0:15wildly different references, occasionally different opinions And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all Now in my 30s, being
0:22the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
0:29podcasts Is there an epidemic against literature? More specifically, Black literature I'm Jacqueline Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black
0:36Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Baker, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King
0:44running around And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, we need to know where you came from
0:51And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
0:56Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts
1:04I'm Stacey Vanek-Smith I'm Max Chafkin We are both journalists at Bloomberg Businessweek And our podcast, Everybody's Business, finds the meaning behind
1:11the numbers Things like, why is ice cream so expensive right now?
1:15Is Polymarket the new stock market? And Max, will we ever retire?
1:19Because decoding the money, power, and influence that moves the world is everybody's business Listen to Everybody's Business on the iHeartRadio app,
1:26Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts Bloomberg's Big Take Podcast has everything you need to know about the most expensive midterms in U.S.
1:34history Like the money being spent to control the Senate Everyone has been waiting to see how Trump will spend his big
1:42war chest He was sitting on nearly half a billion dollars How candidates are rewriting their party's playbooks And how big business
1:49is throwing its money into the ring There's obviously the AI super PACs, which are two sides there So they're spending sometimes
1:56on different sides of races, sometimes on the same side of races Listen to the Big Take on the iHeartRadio app, Apple
2:03Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts Peace Peace The Action Network Podcast I'm just about that action, boss Ready!
2:10Hit! Alright, here we go From the tent, throwing in zone Spectacular catch They're saying it's a catch Touchdown!
2:16You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win Oh my god, that's incredible Big bank, small bank, I like to make money Alright?
2:25That is the ultimate kibosh You wanna bet? And we are underway!
2:29Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined, as I am every Tuesday, by the other Brandon
2:37The Futures Analyst, Brandon Anderson, for a deep dive into the Futures Market and more Another NFL weekend in the books Week
2:446 has come and gone, and we take the long view of what to do from here Wild weekend Wild weekend And
2:51it bled into Monday Chris Ballard, the Colts general manager, was canned Basically said I'm good I'll leave Just, I know where
2:58the door is Jalen Hurts Out for the year With blood clot issues Terry McLaurin Is likely done For the season The
3:06Rams can't find a kicker It's wild out there, Brandon I mean, it seems like every time I open up the apps
3:13There's some new news about some season ender for somebody It's crazy It really does feel like the injuries have piled up
3:20Although it sort of feels like it always feels like that So I don't know Maybe is that part of the 18-game
3:27schedule We're getting a little bit more mileage But it also seems like guys are playing a bit more cautious with the
3:35injuries too Like you go on IR, you miss 3-4 games It's not as big of a deal maybe It shouldn't change
3:42that much It's only one extra game But it feels like we just keep trending that way And I think too, not
3:49to make a big talking point out of it It isn't me Or was there just flags all over the place this
3:56weekend Like there's so many soft penalties right now Just like key moments of a game Huge third down stop And it's
4:04like, oh, somebody brushed into somebody So 15 yards in the first down It's just It's a wild NFL right now But
4:11it felt like a really rough product this weekend too It's become Pavlovian at this point When there's not a flag I'm
4:18left waiting for it Yeah You're like, wait Did I miss it?
4:22Have they not flashed the graphic yet? It feels like it's always coming Yeah, like when you watch a soccer game And
4:29now you're trained Like watching Premier League or somewhere that has VAR You see the goal And you like don't celebrate You
4:37turn and you watch And see like Is there an offside?
4:40Is there a check or something? Now too When there's a big play in the NFL You're starting to get that same
4:47response It's like there's a pause Before you get to like Have that elation as a fan Or as a batter And
4:55you're turning And you're like, okay Is it real?
4:58Is what I saw real? Or is something to take it all away now?
5:02It's funny that you mention that I'm brought back to the World Cup I did a couple of Team USA watch parties
5:09in Orlando And it was like I'm not the biggest soccer fan in the world But I watch enough of it to
5:17know What the typical cadence is As far as celebrations go And every time Team USA would score The place would erupt
5:24And I would go Guys, just wait a second Just wait a second Because usually you are met with that sort of
5:31disappointment But I'm reminded I remind myself of this every year Is that with the flags With the injuries With the firings
5:38We all do this I'm guilty of it You're guilty of it We all do this Where we say Doesn't it feel
5:46crazier this year Than in years of the past I wish I could clip us saying that every year And just mash
5:53it together So that it does teach us the lesson That this is just the NFL Players get hurt Refs throw flags
6:00Coaches and GMs get fired Let's get to our market movers Are you buying this?
6:05Are you buying or selling? What are you buying?
6:08You want to sell? Buy it! Time to sell is right now Some buy or sell this week This is where we
6:15hit the hottest stories The biggest market shifts That we need to be aware of Buy or sell After losing to the
6:23Cardinals In walk-off fashion this Sunday We are finally Officially Panicking On the two and four And beat up Rams Yeah, those
6:30Rams Of like let her buy or sell Like three or four times already Is now the time to panic?
6:36How about now? Maybe now Guess what Brandon? Now is actually the time to panic I'm actually buying this one now You
6:44lose as 13 13.5 point favorites At home To a team that kicked field goals That's what happened in this one The
6:51biggest division upset in the NFL Since Tom Brady lost to Carolina With the Bucs 2022 Again, hilariously Special teams Really a
6:58big part of it This time The kicker gets injured They have to go for two Cardinals make six field goals Just
7:05to rub it in On their side of things While the Rams Can barely even kick an extra point I saw Sam
7:13Hoppen's model Had Cardinals Gaining 46% win probability Just special teams Just this game So continues to bite the Rams And the
7:20crazy thing is So you look at the numbers here When the game ends I'm always like Okay How do the yards compare?
7:28How's the yards per play? Just start with some of the high level stuff Relatively even That's the problem though You're not
7:35supposed to play The Cardinals relatively even At home As the big favorite The whole point Is you get the freebie win
7:42here Rams defense Cannot get off the field Arizona has drives of Eight plays 10 12 15 14 What are we doing?
7:49Jacoby Brissette With like very few receivers No Jeremiah Love They're missing their best Offensive linemen And honestly I don't know that
7:57Arizona Even played that great here They just kind of kept Slowly matriculating The ball down the field And then Again Kind
8:04of coin flippy numbers Coin flippy result We get down to the end Arizona completes One big pass With one of those
8:11Pretty You know Haunting Touch flags And suddenly You're in field goal range And that's about it But again You can't let
8:18the game Get to that point As the Rams You can be mad That the flag was there I thought it was
8:26a terrible call But you can't put yourself In a spot Where you need to avoid That play You just need to
8:33get Some wins I'm sure everyone Has heard it by now But Arizona Now more wins At SoFi Stadium Two Than the
8:40Rams And Chargers Combined this year And here's why This is finally The panic moment Brandon This was The easiest win On
8:47LA's schedule And we've said that About a few teams now Where As you look at futures And you're looking at Win
8:55projections And playoff odds This was already Factored in as a win This was already Assumed as a win For the Rams
9:02So you're basically Dropping your win Projection Almost a full win For the Rams And they're so good And they're so assumed
9:09To win so many games You can't just Make up a win That doesn't happen Like you have to win Multiple more
9:16Coin flip games To make up The entire One win You've lost On this one From Next Gen Stats Their playoff odds
9:24For the Rams Dropped from 67 To 43% With a win Versus a loss On this one From Doug Clausen This is
9:31now The fifth Super Bowl favorite That entered The season That is through Six games Has a losing record In the last
9:38Five decades Fifth one Four of those teams Two of the four Ended up with a losing Record that season The other
9:45two Did get to ten And six They won one Playoff game each In the wildcard round And they're out of here
9:53The Rams have built Themselves a huge Huge hole I think we have to Take this very Seriously now Yeah I agree
10:00And I think Still The number hasn't Moved enough on them There's six percent To be the Super Bowl Champion Or converted
10:07To more standard Odds Twelve to one To win the Super Bowl I mean they're still Within the top six I don't
10:14know how You could Rationalize that Betting choice That right now At the moment They have As good of a chance To
10:22finish last place In the NFC West As they do To win the Super Bowl Wow I just can't I've been waiting
10:29For this moment To buy on the Rams We said well You know if they Lose this one Then we can jump
10:36in Because they were This presumptive favorite And obviously we're not Going to buy them As the presumptive favorite But eventually We're
10:43going to get In on the Rams And it feels like Maybe now should be The moment I still don't feel Like
10:51the price is right And I can't help But see what my eyes Are telling me And what the numbers Are telling
10:58us And what the injuries Are telling us You know The biggest thing That can't be overlooked Here is that They went
11:05all in On this Miles Garrett trade And it's produced Zero percent Of a benefit For them And in fact It's been
11:12a net negative Because the guy That they got rid of Has been excellent And Jared Verse Has been helpful To the
11:20Browns defense I just feel like It should be a buy time On the Rams And it's not It sounds like You're
11:27in agreement Yeah I agree We did this With the Texans To an extent too Where we were like Alright maybe now
11:34How about now And books were like No we're not giving it To you And I think actually I'm ready to flip
11:41I'm ready to say Okay I'm ready To short the Rams But not at the Like this price It's still so far
11:49out I don't know if I need it And the Rams schedule We've talked about This opens up a lot The next
11:56four weeks It's Raiders Chargers Commanders And Cardinals Now look You gotta win those games I said that last week And started
12:03with Cardinals Then they lost that game They still have to win But I think now You're in a spot Where if
12:10you win Those four games You get back To six and four And now you're maybe Back to favorite again Not six
12:18But maybe first or second And I think That's where I'm like Okay If you're not gonna Let us have a buy
12:25spot On the team Then I'm just gonna wait For a short spot Because if the numbers Are gonna stay That terrible
12:32Then I have to flip To the other side And you mentioned The injuries Coming out of this game Kind of a
12:39devastating Blow of injuries As well Devontae Adams Hamstring injury Six to ten weeks That is an older player Six to ten
12:47weeks That might be the season We might not see Devontae Adams again And then Two defensive linemen I know you know
12:54About Miles Garrett I know you know About Aaron Donald Kobe Turner And Puna Ford Are really good players Those are Top
13:0130 Players On the D-line By PFF Puna Ford Top five The last two years At PFF Grade Kobe Turner Has been
13:08top 16 Every year of his career There Devontae Adams Obviously a big loss Also You know Puka But after that Konata
13:16Mumfeld Jordan Whittington And Tutu Atwell That's the receivers now I mean really It's the tight ends You want the tight ends
13:23In fantasy But Those three guys Devontae Adams Kobe Turner Puna Ford Whether you know The names or not Those are three
13:30Of the top 12 Or so Most important players On this team That's a quarter Of your most important Players For a
13:37Stars And Scrubs Roster That is out Now Two of them For the season Effectively One of them At least for a
13:45month And longer Obviously we're still Missing Miles Garrett Until we don't know When So with those injuries That now drops That
13:52now drops them In my model Outside the top Five offenses Outside the top Ten defenses Outside the top Ten overall That's
13:59where the Rams are at So now you have A team That is Fringe top Ten And two and Four It was
14:06bad Before When they were Two and three But still look Like a top three Team They no longer Look like a
14:14top Three team Now there's There's still A good team They're plus 644 yards On opposition This year That is the best
14:21In the league This is not a bad Team Notably that stat Does not count Special teams Clearly it should At this
14:28point It's still a quality Team but For reference Those three dudes On the injuries When I take them Out in my
14:35model That shifts About 1.5 Points to the Spread Against the Rams That's about a 5% swing And win probability Every single
14:43Game going forward They probably Need to go 7 and 4 Probably even 8 and 3 The rest of the Way The
14:50odds Of them Getting to That When I take Those three Guys out Drop about 25% That is Very significant That is
14:57a Huge swing And look I don't think They are dead For the playoffs It's the Rams There's obviously A lot of
15:04talent There Even if they Get there Now They're probably A coin flip At best To get there And they're Probably the
15:127th seed And the 7th seed Matters in The NFC Because the 5 and the 6th Probably get to Play An NFC
15:19South Team An NFC East Team The 7th Seed Has to Play An NFC North Team So even That is Already A
15:26huge Swing And it Means Three road Games Just to Get to They still Sit in 2nd In the NFC East But
15:33Buy or Sell The Eagles Have Hit Rock Bottom I think This is It I've Started Writing Out Philly In My Notes With Just The Minus 650 yards.
15:43That's over 100 yards a game. You are allowing more to your opponent.
15:47I think this is the bottom. They're two and four.
15:50There's nothing left to lose. The good news is it's the bottom.
15:54Once you're at the bottom, you can only go one direction.
15:58And now they go Dallas and then Washington and the Giants next.
16:02You have the whole division. And I think the books, if you like Philly, if you want some Philly stock, have sold on the Eagles.
16:10I think there is a chance if you want them to buy in because it's not like the Cowboys are playing great.
16:17It's not like you think the Washington or the Giants are going to be any good.
16:22Nobody's good in the division. And if the Eagles accidentally stumble into a few wins the next few weeks against division opponents, they're plus 550 in the division.
16:32I don't want the ticket. We're on Eagles' mineshaft here.
16:35But if you kind of like them, that's the value play in this division right now.
16:40DK is hanging a 7-1 right now to win the NFC East.
16:44The commanders are at 6-1. I almost fired on the commanders, but I just cannot get past the befuddled look of Dan Quinn's face.
16:52I think the Eagles need to fire sale. They have very tradable players on their roster.
16:57Saquon, Dallas Goddard. I mean, you got to move off of some of these guys and then just build around those benchmark pieces.
17:05Jalen Carter, Cooper DeGene, Devontae Smith, and then just flush everything out.
17:09That team needs an enema in the worst way.
17:12Much more to get to here on the Brandon's Future Show, but first a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
17:18The Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings, where new customers can turn $5 into 200 in total bonus rewards this football season.
17:26DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips no matter where you're watching.
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17:55DraftKings, the crown is yours. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
17:59Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast.
18:02It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
18:05We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
18:09And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
18:15And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
18:18I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild.
18:22I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
18:29And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
18:37We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser.
18:41We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are.
18:46Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.
18:54Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
18:58Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
19:02Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:07I don't really care. The WNBA playoffs are here.
19:10And while the games will be spread across seven different channels and streaming services, you only need one podcast to keep up to date on all the action.
19:19Good Game with Sarah Spain is the only daily podcast for all your WNBA needs.
19:24Be the smartest fan at the sports bar by learning all the W stories, stakes, stats, and stars, and hear from top
19:31players and coaches about their pregame routines, the pressure of playoff basketball, and the moments that define legacies.
19:37Can we actually compete for a championship? And I think the answer is yes.
19:41You know, the best part about Stubwoods is parents have come up to me.
19:46Thank you. You helped my relationship with my daughter so much.
19:50It goes a lot further than you would think.
19:53Every time you underestimate a UConn player, it comes at your own peril.
19:57You know, when you talk about women's sports, it's like Prego spaghetti sauce.
20:01It's in there. You know, commercial, like, it's in there.
20:05You name it, it's in there. Want to know what's really going on in the WNBA?
20:10We got you. Listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:17Vampires, minotaurs, 12-foot skeletons, and apartment doors? Believe it or not, we're talking about romance.
20:22It's a monster romance extravaganza on Radio 831, a romance podcast.
20:26So join me, Sanjana Baskar, and my co-host, Tyler McCall, as we dive into the strange, horny, and wonderfully thoughtful world of falling for something not quite human.
20:35I give Tyler a crash course in monster romance, and the villain edit author Rosie Dannen joins to talk vampires, blood play,
20:42and finding tenderness in a monstrous love interest. Then, sentient object romance expert Racy Delgado takes us even deeper into the genre.
20:49Finally, I assign Tyler some homework to read Siena's Costa's Morning Glory Milking Farm.
20:54And it's a doozy, but spoiler alert, Tyler emerges ready for more monster tales.
20:59Because sometimes, non-human romances can tell us the most about our desire, our fantasies, and what we actually want.
21:05Listen to Radio 831, a romance podcast, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
21:11Hey, it's J.O. from Laugh With Me, the podcast.
21:14So why would you choose Laugh With Me? Well, great question.
21:18Maybe you like comedy, maybe you like sports, maybe you like movies, ridiculous stories, terrible opinions, questionable rankings, and a grown man
21:25somehow turning everyday life into a personal emergency. Or maybe, you just want to hear from a podcast host who has survived
21:32bad bosses, angry customers, questionable career decisions, and a pepper spray attack?
21:36Yeah, that's right. Other podcasts have hosts with broadcasting degrees.
21:39Laugh With Me has a survivor. I'm Jeremy Odom, and every week, I'm joined by comedians, friends, athletes, weirdos, experts, and occasionally,
21:47people who probably should have stopped answering my texts.
21:50Authentic, raw, and just like you. Just jokes, stories, arguments, sports, pop culture, and whatever happened to me this week.
21:56Listen to Laugh With Me, a podcast with Jeremy Odom, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:04This Halloween, join me, Tim Harford, as Cautionary Tales journeys into the paranormal.
22:08We'll travel from 1800s America, where vampires preyed upon a terrified community, to a bizarre 1930s radio experiment, which broadcast telepathic messages,
22:15and on to 1970s England, where intricate crop circles emerged overnight.
22:19Throughout October, I'll be examining strange stories of the supernatural, and asking, what can we learn from them today?
22:25Listen to Cautionary Tales on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:30Now, the moment you've all been waiting for. Isn't that why you're here?
22:34Oh, I can't wait. Let's look at the big picture here.
22:38Time to take a look at the wide view angle of the NFL big picture style.
22:43What are we looking at, BA? All right. Today, we are looking at about a third of the way through the season
22:51in a league of haves and have-nots. There's only two, three, and three teams right now.
22:56So much for being 500. It's the lowest through week six since 2006.
23:00It's have and have-nots. I have right now 13 teams, Brandon, that have at least a 5% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.
23:08And so I want to zoom out and look at that.
23:12Let's rank teams' chances of who makes the Super Bowl.
23:15Let's try to find some futures value along the way.
23:19So as always, I did the rankings. We're in tiers.
23:22We're going to go through from most likely to least and I'll have three bets for you along the way.
23:29All right. Well, let's start with tier one, the towering NFC favorite.
23:32Who might it be? It's the Niners and I think we are underestimating just how towering the 49ers are at this point.
23:40San Francisco, look, you watched the game last night.
23:43That first half, they did anything they wanted. Nine plays, 64 yards, touchdown.
23:47Eight for 72, touchdown. Seven for 66, fumbled. Would have been another touchdown, I'm sure.
23:5214 for 69, touchdown. 20 to three at half.
23:55Could have been any score they wanted. I know it got weird late, but with Mike Evans on the field, they looked ridiculous.
24:02They have been by far the best team in the league.
24:06They're first offensively in DVOA. They're third defensively. That's been the real surprise.
24:10Defensively, they've allowed the fewest explosives in the entire NFL.
24:14I think that's a big part of their success is they're making you slowly work your way down the field.
24:20And I think I've been guilty of this as much as anyone else is that I think we kind of look at
24:28the Niners and we're like, yeah, but the injuries though, the substation, like it's all going to come crashing down and that may or may not be true.
24:37We don't really know how to project injuries yet, but I don't think the books are taking fully into account just how
24:44good a position the Niners are in right now six weeks in.
24:48They win. The Seahawks and Rams both lose games that they both clearly should have won.
24:53San Fran is now up three and a half games on Seattle, four and a half on the Rams.
24:59After six weeks, like that's a crazy margin. FTN has the Niners 95% to win the division.
25:0595%, obviously by far the most likely division winner and it's the NFC.
25:09You win the division. We know you're a top two seed because the NFC East and NFC South are terrible.
25:16So now the Niners are 92% for a top two seed.
25:20There's 74% for the one seed because they're projected at 14 or so wins.
25:24The next closest is Minnesota, the other division leader who's at 11.
25:28We have obvious caution on Vikings, which we'll get to them.
25:32A three win cushion in the division and projected wins in the entire NFC is a huge cushion.
25:38So if we're zooming out, you're the one seed.
25:41The one seeds get a bye week. They get rest.
25:44You're an old team with injuries. You need rest.
25:47They're going to get rest. It's coming. And maybe more than a game.
25:51They could clinch the one seed before week 18.
25:54They might get multiple weeks of rest and they now play at Atlanta.
25:58It's going to be a tough one because they're pretty shorthanded, but then they get their other week of rest.
26:05Their bye week comes after that. And as much as we talked about all the injuries, they're going to be mostly healthy after that bye week.
26:14Nick Bosa should be back. Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and Demarcus Robinson and Debo Samuel, all the receivers probably back.
26:21Dwayne Greenlaw will be back. Marcus Siegel will be back at safety.
26:25That team is going to be mostly healthy actually.
26:27I think this was the rough injury spot and they went undefeated.
26:31And they actually have a top five easiest schedule left by DVOA.
26:35So, I think the Niners are clearly the favorite for the one seed.
26:40You can bet that 59% at prediction markets. I think there's value there.
26:44If they're the one seed, you have to like their chances to do stuff.
26:49We know how one seeds go when you get to the playoffs because the best way to play a playoff game is to not play one.
26:57You get the only bye and then you're suddenly at home, maybe against the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Panthers or the Falcons.
27:05And now, you're in the NFC Championship as the home favorite.
27:09So, here's the bet. 49ers to win the NFC.
27:12It's at 25% in the prediction market. I think that is about half the price it should be right now, which is a crazy margin.
27:20And it's given that huge head start we've given the 49ers.
27:24I think that you get hopefully a one seed out of this.
27:27You win the next game. Now, you're sitting on a 3-1 home money line favorite in the NFC Championship and you can
27:35figure out what you want to do from there.
27:38The impressive thing with their offense too is that they felt like last night, I know because I bet the under on
27:45rush attempts for Christian McCaffrey, but they haven't really needed to use him all that much.
27:50And last night felt like the first time they uncorked him a little bit and they can continue to sort of wait
27:57to go full throttle with Christian McCaffrey, which means with if Mike Evans is healthy, when you do that later on in
28:05the season, the offense actually has higher upside. And there's one other name that should be back by the end of the
28:12year when you're trying to cash this ticket is their rookie sensation.
28:16Dejon Stribbling, who was the star of the preseason, but you're right.
28:20It's the defense that impresses me the most because we know the offense is good.
28:25Number two and points allowed behind only the Minnesota Vikings who already had their bite week, top five EPA and Malik Mustafa.
28:32If you just like tackling, watch the highlights of this guy.
28:36He might be the best tackler in the NFL.
28:39Really impressive what this defense is doing right now.
28:42I'm with you on the San Francisco 49ers, and I'm glad that you were able to guide us in a way where
28:49we can buy on this team that right now is sky high.
28:53Let's go to tier two. Well, this feels familiar.
28:56It just feels like the bills and the chiefs are always in this discussion around this tier in the NFL.
29:02Yeah, here we are a third of the way into the season, and we thought it would be different.
29:09Every show I listened to before the season talked about the wide open AFC.
29:13Guess what? It's Josh and Pat in the AFC and it's the NFC that's wide open and everything flipped upside down again.
29:21So, look, already you see a big difference in the conferences.
29:24There's two teams in the AFC towering at the top.
29:27By the books, there's another one even, which we'll get to a little bit later.
29:32In the NFC, it's just the Niners and then the huge drop after that.
29:37And we know that you don't quite believe in the Niners like some of these other teams too.
29:43So, it's Josh Allen, it's Patrick Mahomes. We've seen this movie before.
29:47We don't need to go so long on these teams.
29:50It's Chiefs 5-0 coming off of their bye. Bills 5-1 heading into their bye.
29:55Buffalo, I think, just escaped its harder schedule spot.
29:58The Chiefs schedule is about to get tougher, so advantage Buffalo there.
30:02Advantage Kansas City and that obviously the weakest link of the four here is the Bills defense.
30:07We know that, but I think the Bills offense is the strongest, especially with all those Chiefs receivers.
30:13Their receiving core is really rough right now after Xavier Worthy and you don't want him as your number one.
30:20So, why these teams are a tier below is because there's two of them.
30:24They're not as good a position as the Niners.
30:27They're not as good a position in the division either.
30:31The Bills are up one in the Patriots who beat them head to head.
30:35So, that's a tenuous spot. The Chiefs are up one in the Broncos.
30:40The Chiefs beat the Broncos, so better shape for the division, but they're in each other's way to win the AFC and
30:47so is Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and so are the Jaguars and the Texans.
30:52Some of the other teams will get to and by comparison, the Niners are up much more in the division and their
30:59top one seed competition is the Vikings. So, let's just be honest later, obviously we know a Josh Allen team or Mahomes
31:06team can get to the Super Bowl out of the AFC.
31:10Right now at FTN, these teams have combined 65% combined odds for the one seed.
31:15So, in all likelihood, on Championship Sunday, one of these two teams and one of these two quarterbacks is hosting.
31:21That's where we're at. It's where we've been at for like six, seven, eight years now.
31:27The road to the AFC still runs through Josh and Pat and you might have to beat both of them if you're one of the other AFC teams.
31:36And I don't think that there is a reason to bet those teams right now, but it's important that we set the
31:43stage because there's a lot of other intriguing AFC teams and unfortunately they got to get through both of these guys.
31:50Yeah, then there's only one quarterback I trust in the AFC to get through both of these guys.
31:56We'll talk about him in a little bit with the bills.
32:00I find talking about them from a future perspective really tough because I just feel like we've been saying the same thing for about six years.
32:08It's Josh Allen. It's a struggling defense. It's turnovers.
32:11They've coughed the ball up five times on fumbles alone.
32:15And I do think the defense showed life against the Raiders.
32:18Four minutes left, Raiders down seven. The bills forced a three and out, gave the ball back to Buffalo.
32:24They were able to take a 10-point lead with a field goal.
32:28That's defense winning a game for Buffalo. That usually doesn't happen, but it just feels like we have the same dialogue with Buffalo all the time.
32:37With Kansas City, my concern with them, and I'm curious to get your thoughts on this, is there a paranoia I have
32:44before I invest in the Chiefs about the way they're using Kenneth Walker.
32:48They seem heavily, almost too heavily reliant on him, and he hasn't exactly been known for his health.
32:54If he goes down for a stretch of time, this offense, Brandon, is going to hit the skids, and that's what has
33:02me hitting pause on the Chiefs is I feel like they're overusing a player that is bound for the injury report.
33:09Yeah, I thought about that yesterday. I thought about a Travis Kelsey injury would actually be devastating to the Chiefs.
33:15That's where we're at on the receiving options for that team for a guy that could retire any moment he feels like it.
33:23That's the stage of career we're at with him.
33:26Let me tell you where I'm at on Kenneth Walker.
33:29This is true. Yesterday, Monday morning, I woke up and apparently realized that I dreamt vividly overnight that Kenneth Walker tore his Achilles.
33:37I was so sad and I was like, oh no, what do the Chiefs do?
33:42Right before the Chiefs have to play the Seahawks, it's this old team we're robbed of that matchup and the Seahawks explosives.
33:49I woke up and my mind exploded in all these ways.
33:52I was like, wait, did that happen? I don't think it happened.
33:56I think I might have dreamt that. I had to look it up and figure out, that did not happen.
34:03But you're right. There's not a lot there. Offensively, the line has not been that great.
34:08They have a lot of injuries there. They're running out of receivers.
34:12They hopefully will get some guys back at some point.
34:15We're not going to bury either one of these teams.
34:19We know the flaws. The flaws are what we just said.
34:22The flaws of the Bills defense are clear. But you still have Josh, you still have Pat, and it's still going to
34:30be there in the playoffs, which is what we should have known going into the season.
34:35So we'll have plenty of time on these teams.
34:38There will be chances to buy at a lower spot on these teams.
34:42This is not the spot. Let's move to tier three, the most likely underdogs.
34:47Who ends up landing on this list? Yeah, so I put these teams at like 8-12% to make the Super Bowl.
34:54For reference, the last tier was more for reference, by my numbers, there's about a 25% chance that the Super Bowl is just Niners Chiefs or Niners Bills.
35:0325%, 1-4 that we have our Super Bowl right now.
35:06It's about the same odds that none of those three teams make the Super Bowl.
35:11So put differently, about 75%, we get at least one Niners Chiefs or Bills in the Super Bowl right now, which is
35:18much more confident by the probability than I feel right now based on what I've been watching.
35:24And here's why. It's because it's a huge drop to rest of these teams.
35:29Here are the four teams I'm putting in this group at 8-12% to make the Super Bowl.
35:34Number four, I can't believe this, the Minnesota Vikings, the number five Detroit Lions, six New England Patriots, and seven Jacksonville Jaguars.
35:41So before I get into thoughts on those teams, just thoughts overall on that group of four.
35:47I was a little surprised to see the Vikings.
35:50in their dead last and offensive success rate. But if I could give them a little bit of grace where I think
35:57I could make the case for them to be a part of this discussion is when you look at the players that
36:05have missed at least one game this year for Minnesota, Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, Christian Derrisaw, their left
36:12tackle, TJ Hawkinson, Josh Oliver, who they use a lot in the red zone.
36:16So maybe their upside offensively has been capped by the fact that they have not been healthy.
36:22And I don't know, this defense is so good.
36:25I'm kind of tired of doubting them. When I first saw this list, they're the ones that stood out that I'm like, absolutely not.
36:33I don't think you can sell them to me, but they have a clear superpower.
36:38I'm very curious to see if they can establish some dominance this week against the Colts, because it feels like the only
36:45team on their schedule and they've played some cupcakes.
36:48The only team that they have dominated was the saints.
36:51And it was just a 10 point win, but it never felt like the saints were close in that game.
36:58But that entire team in new Orleans had the flu that week.
37:02So I don't know how seriously to take that.
37:05I need to see them curb stomp somebody before I can fully trust that this is a team that, yeah, they're not
37:12as sexy as these other teams that have done it or have better quarterback play.
37:17But I'm not completely out on it. That's my long winded way of saying I'm okay with it, but I'm skeptical.
37:24Yeah. So for regular listeners know that I am, of course, a Vikings fan, but also if you know that about me,
37:31you hopefully know part two of that, which is I'm a Viking skeptic like this.
37:36I assure you is not a fandom pick here.
37:39I bet against my own teams as much as anybody is out there.
37:43I'm a terrible Minnesota sports fan. So we'll get to that in a I think these four teams, Vikings, Lions, Patriots, Jaguars,
37:51I know it's kind of a common theme here as I get to them.
37:55Strong start so far despite the injuries, despite the missing guys for all four teams.
38:00I think for good reason, similarly, to believe the team should be better going forward, that we've actually seen maybe the worst of them so far.
38:09And then for the most part, soft winnable schedules, which is a relief again for some of these teams.
38:15So yeah, you kind of made the case for me on the Vikings.
38:19I'm as surprised as anyone that they're fourth here, but it's about the setup.
38:24They're 5-0. They're clear NFC North favorites. And look, if we're at number four, so far right now, if you had to
38:31project who are the top two seeds in each conference, you have the Niners, you have the Bills and the Chiefs, there's
38:38one spot left, it's in the NFC, and it's the NFC North champion, and the Vikings are almost a coin flip to be that team right now.
38:47So that's basically the answer, Brandon. That's where we get to is, by default, if they're the two seed, they have to
38:55be most likely among the teams left to get to the Super Bowl because they're set, and look, if they're the two
39:02seed and the Niners stumble at all, they're the one seed, and now you get a bye week, and now you don't
39:09have to play one of those games after that.
39:12We know about the defense, number one, the special teams is number one.
39:16That part makes me a little tenuous just because that feels not sticky at all, and we'll see if those plays are still there.
39:24The offense, you nailed it. So far this season in five games, because they already had the bye week, they've basically missed
39:32two games of Kyler Murray, two games of Justin Jefferson, four of the five without Jordan Mason, who I think is their
39:39best back, and then Addison, Hawkinson, Derrissaw, Jawan Jennings.
39:42Let's see, after a bye week, after two weeks of practice and a healthy team, let's see the offense, because I don't think we've seen it yet, honestly.
39:51I don't think we've really seen, we've seen Kyler and Jefferson play one game together, and they look pretty good in that game.
39:59Minnesota offense also faces the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL the rest of the way, thanks to the Lions and to
40:06the Bears, partly on that one, I'm sure. So the schedule overall for Minnesota gets much harder.
40:11They go fourth easiest to fourth hardest, but the offensive schedule gets a lot easier.
40:16Right now, they're about 85% for playoffs, 50% almost to win the division.
40:21They have to be fourth here, but that's the setup for my number five team, which is going to be the team
40:28we're batting, which is the Detroit Lions, because if you want to fade the Vikings, and if you think that the Lions
40:35are the team to invest in, it's the same argument, because if the Vikings slip and the Lions win the division, now
40:42they get that sweet two seed spot. So defensively, we know the Lions have struggled, but we just said it with the
40:50Vikings, the flip side is true here. The Lions have the easiest schedule of remaining offenses in the league.
40:56So that's going to help the defense, and so is Brian Branch, because he's back finally this week at safety, and Brian
41:03Branch is so, so important to this team. From true media, since 2023, the Lions have had the number three defensive success
41:10rate in the NFL with Brian Branch, their 30th without him.
41:14Their third best with Brian Branch on the field, their third worst with him off the field.
41:20So we'll see just how quickly he's himself after the Achilles injury, but he is a huge, huge swing for this team,
41:27probably like a top four or five most important player for them.
41:31Cade Mays is back now on the offensive line.
41:34That young line has actually played pretty well. They might be a top five unit, much better than I expected them to be.
41:41I have Detroit now fourth, fourth in my power ratings.
41:45I did not expect this team to get that high, but with the line playing better, with Branch back, now it's home for Green Bay and Minnesota.
41:54Those aren't easy, but you like them at home.
41:57We know how good Jared Goff is at home.
41:59So for a third straight week, as I do my futures outlook here, it's the Lions.
42:05That are like lighting up with value here. However you want to bet it, we've given it out a couple times already.
42:12For the playoffs, minus 150 at DraftKings. That's got a good number there.
42:16I have them about 75% to make the playoffs.
42:19That would be minus 300, so double that. Division, they're plus 330.
42:23We gave that out already. I think there's still value there as well.
42:27They still have all six division games to come as they're getting healthy.
42:32We like that for the Lions. So I think if you want to invest in the Lions and fade the Vikings, there's
42:39your setup for the two seed, maybe even the one seed, I think there's value on Lions to win the NFC at 7%.
42:47I have them about 8.5% or 9%, so a little bit of value there.
42:51The bet I prefer is at prediction markets, you can bet what's called NFC Championship Game Qualifier.
42:57What that means is you made the NFC Championship Game.
43:00You're in the final four. It's 12%, and I think that is the bet to make.
43:05It's one less win with this defense, and I'm going to trust the Lions defense to win four times.
43:12How about twice? How about twice in the playoffs?
43:15Maybe even one if we get lucky and get a bye.
43:18I think there's a lot of edge there. 12%, it's too low, and I think the Lions are the spot to invest in the NFC.
43:26Yeah, so I've been doing some digging on how to feel about the Lions.
43:31I've come to the conclusion that they're basically just the discount Buffalo Bills.
43:35These teams really are carbon copies of each other, and I think because the Bills have Josh Allen and maybe some of
43:43this involves the competitiveness of the conferences or whatever, though I would make the argument that the AFC is perhaps tougher to
43:50get through than the NFC is, but because they have Josh Allen, you have to pay a steeper price, but Detroit's offense
43:57is tied with Buffalo for the most points per game, 32.8, and boy, do we not treat them the same.
44:04Part of that is third down conversion rate. They're 22nd in the NFL, you know, and I mentioned last week that I'm
44:11not all that impressed with their line in doing some more digging and looking at offensive line impact scores.
44:17They rank fourth, so you're right. This is a top five unit based on what they've produced, but they are heavily penalized,
44:24fourth most penalized offensive line in the NFL, but when everything is on schedule for this offense, they're unstoppable, so replace Josh
44:32Allen with Jameer Gibbs and friends, and you have a much better price on the Lions to make it out of their conference than the Buffalo Bills.
44:41These two teams feel eerily similar to each other.
44:44Yeah, I think eerily similar, but in the conference you would far prefer to have to come out of, and that's the big difference.
44:52You're trading, like you didn't say the name Jared Goff, so let's say the name Jared Goff instead of Josh Allen.
44:58Like we know which one you want, but look at the rest of the team.
45:03Which receiver do you want? Which running back do you want?
45:07Which tight end do you want? Because the answers are all very definitely Detroit, and honestly the offensive line might be Detroit
45:14at this point too, as good as Buffalo's has been.
45:18I think Detroit has been as good, so that's the path there.
45:22Patriots and Jaguars in this tier, both north of 75% for the playoffs.
45:26I have them as the fourth and first easiest schedule left by DVOA, so they're set up pretty well.
45:32Young quarterbacks both kind of making the leap. You want that.
45:36If you've got to beat Allen and Mahomes, you'd like to have Trevor Lawrence, you'd like to have Drake May.
45:42I think probably both top 10 defenses. These teams can win games multiple ways.
45:47Jacksonville, I would probably slightly prefer as a team.
45:50I like their coaching better, certainly, and I like their versatility better.
45:54I think New England has a slightly better path in the playoffs.
45:58They have a shot at a top two seed because they're kind of catching up on the bills and the division there,
46:05and we have some doubts on the bills perhaps defensively, so I don't see a lot of value on either of these
46:12teams right now because, look, there's not a ton of value in bet an AFC or NFC team win the championship.
46:19Books are not looking to give us value on these teams, but I do think Patriots and Jaguars belong in this group.
46:26I'm having a hard time with Jacksonville because I was a big Jags buyer coming into the season, but the fact that
46:34they barely beat the Eagles when Jalen Hurts didn't sleep the night before is not sitting well with me.
46:40No team. I'd mentioned offense. Well, number one on that list is the Jaguars.
46:45Their offensive line cannot stop racking up the penalties, whether they're earned or not, because I know that was a big discussion this past weekend.
46:53Their defense is number one in red zone takeaways, which to me feels like the chancyest variance reliant stat that's out there.
47:00I don't like that. That does not feel sticky at all.
47:04And they are not getting after the quarterback 25th and sacks.
47:07It just feels like between the penalties and reliance on red zone turnovers and not sacking the quarterback.
47:13They're just on thin ice right now, but I can't sell them because their upcoming schedule after the buy is Colts Ravens.
47:20That's a tough one. Colts, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Titans.
47:23Those are four of those five. If they don't go four and one over that stretch, something has gone wrong.
47:30So hard time to sell on Jacksonville. Yeah. I mean, the whole schedule, the rest of the way is a hard time to sell on Jacksonville.
47:39So I I'm with you on the feeling tentative about the defense.
47:43What's crazy is I agree. The turnovers should not be sticky.
47:46We have a lot of stats that tell us that, but who was great at turnovers and red zone last year, the Jacksonville defense.
47:54I don't know. Maybe Campanelli has found some sort of way to, to, to, to skip around some of the things and make it sticky after all.
48:03Let's go to tier four. A lot has to go right.
48:07This is the six to 7% tier. Yeah. So I've got four teams in this tier, a lot of AFC representation here.
48:14It is at number eight, the Ravens, nine Texans, 10 bears and 11 bangles.
48:18And look six or 7% here, eight to 10 last year.
48:22You could say this is more like tier three B, but it's still a big drop from those teams at the top.
48:29And the Ravens are not being priced like it.
48:32The Ravens are plus five 20 at DraftKings to win the AFC barely behind the bills and the chiefs that by, by
48:40the books alone, they should have been in tier two, two tiers up from this one.
48:45That's implies 16%. I have them 7%. I think that is maybe the worst number on the board.
48:51And I really like the Ravens. Like I really like this team.
48:55And I still just think that's a terrible number.
48:58They, again, we've said this about how many teams they gave away one of their most winnable games on the schedule.
49:05And look, it's not quite as bad because no Lamar Jackson, but they should have beat the Browns.
49:11They were in control. They're double digits up and it's the Ravens.
49:14You're losing now two blown huge leads already, two fourth quarter losses already.
49:19The thing they were supposed to have fired and gotten rid of and fixed last year.
49:24They're still doing the same stupid Ravens stuff. And they've had the second easiest schedule so far.
49:30They now have the hardest remaining schedule, including immediately.
49:33You can't invest in the Ravens right now because look where we're going.
49:37Bengals coming off the bye, coming to you. If Lamar Jackson even plays, we don't know.
49:42Then at Buffalo, who's on bye week right now.
49:45So two in a row against powerhouses coming off a bye week.
49:49Then Thursday night, so they don't get a little rest.
49:52They go immediately Thursday to that Jacksonville game you just said.
49:56And Jacksonville has their bye week right before that.
49:59So they have three powerhouse AFC teams and look, I like the Ravens.
50:03I think the Ravens could win any of those games.
50:07They could win all of them. But how can you bet Ravens futures right now when they're about to have to run
50:14that gauntlet with the quarterback that we don't even think is healthy right now.
50:18So I think that is probably at least in the AFC the worst price on the board.
50:24The best price is the Texans and we're going to buy the Texans a second straight week.
50:30They needed that one Sunday morning. They got it.
50:33That was an awesome game. That felt like a playoff game against Jacksonville.
50:37I thought that felt honestly like it could have been the AFC championship game.
50:42That's how good those teams both are. Houston against that really good defense.
50:467.2 yards per play for the entire game. CJ Stroud is awesome right now.
50:50He is a top 10 quarterback and 10 is too high.
50:54This is a top five passing offense by DVOA right now.
50:58This was the one they had to have for the division.
51:01They are now basically a game and a half back.
51:05Colts are dead. Titans are dead. It's just them and Jacksonville.
51:08Jacksonville still has a bunch of their schedule. Lots of easy ones, but they have I think only three true home games left.
51:16They still go at Baltimore, at Chicago, at Houston, at Dallas.
51:19We'll see about Dallas, but four probably tough road games.
51:23Texans next four. Giants, Chargers, Browns, Colts. That smells like six and four to me.
51:28They have the second easiest schedule left, so Jacksonville and Houston are the top two there.
51:33By the odds, Houston is now officially above 50% to make the playoffs, even at two and four.
51:39They're up to about two to one to win the division now.
51:43They are priced 17 to one at DraftKings to win the AFC.
51:47That's eighth. That prices them as not a playoff team for starters.
51:51Here are the teams behind the Texans. I think this is crazy.
51:55The Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, okay, they all suck.
51:58The Colts, the Raiders, the Steelers, and the Browns.
52:01That's who we're putting the Texans with? They're so much better than all of those teams.
52:06So 17 to one is five and a half percent implied.
52:09I have it like seven percent, so a smaller edge.
52:13Again, the way I'm betting this is like with Detroit.
52:16Give me the AFC championship game qualifier. Give me Houston to make the playoffs and win two games.
52:22Get to the AFC championship. It is four percent right now.
52:26Get out of here at four percent. I have this more like 15 percent.
52:30This is a clear top ten team. They're right back in this thing.
52:35If you can't bet those markets, you can bet just win the AFC, win the NFC.
52:40Even if you don't like them in the matchup, you'll have options with a ticket.
52:45If you like this one, if you want a fun ticket, I looked it up.
52:50The Texans are 35 to one at DraftKings to win the whole thing right now.
52:55And I think they're alive to do it. Yeah, this team is really encouraging with what we've seen recently.
53:01They needed that win so bad. It was a 30 percent playoff probability swing in beating Jacksonville to if they had lost.
53:08They went from 17 percent with a loss 47 percent to make the playoffs with a win.
53:14We talked about this on last week's episode. You handed out Texans five to one to win the division.
53:20That's basically slashed in half at this point. No reason to not get in on the Texans market and they get tank Dell back.
53:28So nice emotional boost for a team that has all of a sudden they went from no receivers to I like what Marvin Harrison Jr.
53:36did to help this offense. Jalen Noel looked great.
53:39Now they get tank Dell back. Even if it's just an emotional boost, it's a boost nonetheless.
53:45I like the Texans bet. Yeah, I think I have the Texans like seventh in my wide receiver rankings now.
53:51Like that happened real fast because this is a team that could find nobody to throw the ball to Bears and Bengals.
53:59The other teams in this tier kind of similar opposite conference teams, all offense, not a lot of defense.
54:05They're both in loaded divisions. That's the problem here is they both are in divisions where everybody is over 500.
54:11That means lots of tough games, lots of losable games, especially when your defense is this bad.
54:17It probably means you're going to be not the division winner.
54:21And now you got three road games to get to the Super Bowl.
54:25And that's what the odds are here. So Dennis Allen has done awesome with Chicago's defense.
54:30Kyler Gordon back is huge for that team. We saw his impact immediately this week.
54:35I think the NFC playoff picture obviously is softer like we talked about.
54:39If the Bears are not the seventh seed, but the five or the sixth, they might even be favored in round one.
54:47I think they're set up nicely. I prefer them to the Bengals kind of same old, same old with the Bengals defense
54:54and the line slightly better as much as we wanted.
54:57No, but slightly better. I think if you want Bengals stock, I think you prefer regular season Bengals stock.
55:04I could see Bengals 13 and four. I could see Joe Burrow MVP.
55:08I think maybe that's the way you bet the team.
55:11I don't love betting either of these teams in the playoffs with their defenses.
55:16So I agree on the Bears. There's always one team that I, in every sport, there's just, I think we all have this.
55:23There's that team. You just feel like you can't quite get a wrangle on.
55:28I cannot make sense of the Bears. I can't tell if I fully love their offense.
55:33I can't tell if their defense is underrated, overrated, non-existent.
55:36You know, it's like I like them one week and then they get roasted by Jordan love.
55:42And then all of a sudden Kyle pits has his best game of the year.
55:47It's a very weird team. So I don't know what to do with the Bears.
55:52I'll leave them to the side. I am completely on the other side of this with the Cincinnati Bengals.
55:58I think that's the best value on the board.
56:017% to win the AFC. They're half the price of the Baltimore Ravens.
56:05Somebody please tell me why the Ravens are twice as expensive as the Cincinnati Bengals.
56:10The defense looked elite in the first couple of weeks.
56:14They're not. Obviously that was overstated, but we didn't need this defense to be elite.
56:19We needed them to be league average. And I think that they're good enough to be that.
56:24I would like the, if they ran the ball better, if they ran the ball more, but honestly, if you have burrow,
56:31if you have chase, if you have Higgins, do we really need to downgrade them if they can't run the football and
56:39you get to the playoffs and you tell me who are you going to trust more going up against my homes, going up against Josh Allen?
56:47Is it Lamar Jackson who hasn't really done that successfully yet?
56:51Or is it Joe Burrow who is ice cold, not scared when he goes up against these guys?
56:57I love the improvements I've seen and I love the bargain that we're still getting on Cincinnati.
57:02I don't get it. So a win against the Ravens would go a long way in changing that price.
57:09I like Cincinnati a lot. Yeah. I mean, I think, I think this week is a great opportunity for you.
57:15So that's a little, a little hint toward what will be my one thing today.
57:20Let's wrap up with tier five here. Last season is a distant memory because tier five is two teams.
57:27It's the Rams and it's the Seahawks and they're only included here because they're 12th and 13th.
57:32And I think their odds are the worst on the board for teams to make the Super Bowl.
57:38I have these teams at about 5% to make, not win, to make the Super Bowl.
57:43Seahawks barely above 50% to make the playoffs. The Rams below that now.
57:48We talked at length about the Rams already earlier.
57:51Neither offense feels right right now. Like it just, it feels off.
57:55You will watch them and it just feels wrong.
57:58It feels out of rhythm. Part of that is the explosives have disappeared.
58:02They're both in the bottom half of the league, explosives running and passing.
58:06And that's a huge swing from last year. It just, everything is harder for these teams right now on the offense.
58:13The division is gone. Remember nine Niners are 95% to win the division.
58:17So at best you make the playoffs as a wild card and you need to win three road games just to make the Super Bowl.
58:26That's the first problem here. And we said this before they play each other two of the last three games of the
58:33season and the way things are trending, they might be fighting for one spot that the playoffs start early for the Seahawks
58:40and the Rams are in the playoffs already. Like they got to start winning playoff games right now to get to the playoffs.
58:48Even so to win the NFC right now, the Rams are second at plus 650 and the Seahawks are third at plus 700 implied 13% each.
58:56I have them 5% each. That is ludicrous. If you want to bet the no at prediction markets, like I'm not going
59:03to tell you to bet you bet like a, you know, a 90% and tie your money up that way.
59:10But the odds are in your favor at the numbers posted there.
59:14I mentioned with the Rams maybe after a soft month we get a little better no price there.
59:20But most importantly, if the Rams and Seahawks are priced together at like 26% to come out of the NFC and it's
59:27really 10, that's 16% extra that belongs somewhere else.
59:30I think it belongs to the Niners and to the Lions and that's what we would bet them instead.
59:36Yeah, I'm with you. I would love to find that buy point on the Rams, but as we discussed earlier, it's just simply not there.
59:45I'm out. Devante Adams, the defensive injuries, the special teams woes.
59:48They still can't find a kicker. Sean McVay seems off to me.
59:52Matt Stafford has really struggled with consistency. This is a Bill Barnwell stat I found today.
59:57Stafford's completion percentage over expectation on deep passes went from plus 5.8 last year in his MVP season, which was one of
60:05the highest marks in the league to minus 8.5 in 2026.
60:08It's just been a different quarterback and the Seahawks plus 670 to win the conference.
60:13That is a horrendous bet. Horrendous. How are they?
60:16The second short shot makes no sense to me.
60:19Get it while it's hot. I mean, how long am I supposed to keep it for a week or so?
60:26Buy low, sell high. Time for our weekly trading segment.
60:29Buy now, sell later. I got a good one for you.
60:33Let's go with the New Orleans Saints 15% to win the NFC South.
60:37The Panthers are 54 and a half percent right now in the prediction markets to win the division.
60:43No one in week seven should be laying minus 120 in this division up by one game.
60:49You talk about ludicrous. That is ludicrous. The saints are one game back.
60:53These two teams haven't even played each other yet.
60:56The saints get the Steelers neutral site Browns. And then the Panthers after that, if at any point in the next three
61:03weeks, if the saints go on a little bit of a run here and the saints then flip it around and emerge
61:10as a minus one 20, like what we're seeing with the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South, where a different team
61:18in this division has been favored just about every week to win the NFC South a plus five 50.
61:24We buy now. We sell our position later. I mean, look, the best thing I can say for your bet is that
61:31I think the Panthers are going to lose this week to my Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
61:36The real bet you should be making the division for the 700th time box Island.
61:41Let's go. I knew you weren't going to be able to leave that one alone.
61:46All right. Quick futures recap. VA likes the 49ers to win the NFC at 25% NFC championship qualifiers.
61:52So you just have to make it to the final four lions at 12% and an AFC championship game qualifier on the Houston Texans at 4%.
62:00Love those three bets. Love those three teams. A buy on all of them.
62:05Take us home, Brandon. What's our one last thing?
62:08Can I say one more thing? This better be important.
62:11There's one more thing before I go. Yeah. You mentioned the bangles play the Ravens this week in Baltimore.
62:18We also have Packers at lions. These are huge, huge futures games.
62:21These are pivot games in the futures market. So that's the one thing.
62:26If you like a side in Packers lions, forget the plus or minus three, we can do so much better.
62:32Pick a team to make the playoffs, pick a team to win the division, pick a team to win the NFC.
62:39Maybe if you like green Bay, maybe they're the team you like rather than the lions in the spot.
62:46Packers were would have been one of my next teams off the list in our rankings.
62:51Ravens bangles. I think there's even more possibility. Again, if you like the bangles, Brandon, maybe it's a division bet, skip, skip
62:58betting the side, grab the division because they win the game.
63:02They're looking really good in the division. Now, after that or MVP odds right now, Joe Burrow, 16 to one, Lamar Jackson, 25 to one.
63:10If you're not invested yet, or even if you are, whoever you think wins that game.
63:15If you're right, you'll want that MVP ticket after that, because one of these teams is going to emerge and kind of make a push here.
63:24So if you're confident, skip the size, skip the spread investing futures.
63:28There are more than one way to bet a game.
63:31Well, you just nailed two of the ones. I'll be sprinting to the window to go and bet after this show, which
63:38is the lions and the bangles love their position right now in the 2026 season.
63:43A goodbye from us. That'll do it for today.
63:46Keep an eye out for Stucky and Doug's week seven betting preview on Wednesday, the touchdown show on Thursday.
63:52And then Brandon Anderson is back with the NFL playground shoots, ladders, parlays, and the works.
63:58That is a, you are so close to a monster weekend.
64:01I was following that. I love the Christian Watson stuff that you put out there and boy, boy, did that.
64:08It's just pure pain. You got screwed over in that one.
64:12That's all for us this week. Go and find all of this on the action network podcast presented by draft Kings.
64:18Make sure that your bet sinking on the action app.
64:22I'll be back on the favorites. See if we can go five and Oh, two weeks in a row with our contest plays.
64:29It was a hot week six on the favorites until next time.
64:33Good luck out there. Action network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
64:37If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 seven at one 800 gambler.
64:44Someone once said, everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the mouth.
64:48I did Mike Tyson. Oh, well, Mike Tyson and boost are here to tell you that your mobile plan is punching you
64:55in the mouth with prices that can knock you out.
64:59That's a low blow. Totally. But you can do something about it.
65:03You have to punch back. No, Mike, you got to switch the boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever.
65:10Oh, that's a great plan. Maybe you can do both.
65:13Boost Mobile. What's your plan? Lisa, tell them about our new show.
65:17We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me.
65:20I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
65:25And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
65:31And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
65:35Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.
65:40Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
65:44Is there an epidemic against literature? More specifically, Black literature.
65:47I'm Jacqueline Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black Lit podcast, we're outside asking why.
65:53They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Baker, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King's on the ground.
65:59And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, you need to know where you came from.
66:06And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
66:11Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
66:18On recent episodes of the Questlove show, I chatted with JoJo about her music and WALO267 about his story and everything in between.
66:26Don't invite me to karaoke. I'm going to make it weird.
66:30Someone's going to try to sing Leave Get Out or Too Little Too Late or Baby It's You.
66:36Oh no. And I'm going to be like, okay, cool.
66:39Check out my conversation with JoJo, WALO267, and more on the Questlove show.
66:43Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
66:49Peace. Bloomberg's Big Take podcast has everything you need to know about the most expensive midterms in U.S.
66:55history, like the money being spent to control the Senate.
66:58Everyone has been waiting to see how Trump will spend his big war chest.
67:03He was sitting on nearly half a billion dollars.
67:06How candidates are rewriting their party's playbooks and how big business is throwing its money into the ring.
67:11There's obviously the AI super PAC, which are two sides there, so they're spending sometimes on different sides of races, sometimes on the same side of races.
67:20Listen to The Big Take on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.