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NFL Futures Watch | Week 7

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 20, 2026
Published
Tue, October 20, 2026
25
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
C.J. StroudChristian McCaffreyDallas GoedertDrake MayeJacoby BrissettJalen HurtsJared GoffJoe BurrowJordan AddisonJordan MasonJordan WhittingtonJosh OliverJustin JeffersonKenneth Walker III
Player analysis

Player insights

25

C.J. Stroud

PositiveProjection50:50

The source rates CJ Stroud as a top-five quarterback (not top ten), noting he is awesome right now and leading a top-five passing offense by DVOA; Stroud put up 7.2 yards per play against Jacksonville's elite defense in a game the Texans needed to win for division positioning.

Insight page

Christian McCaffrey

PositiveUsage45:45

The 49ers have not heavily relied on Christian McCaffrey through the first half of the season, and last night felt like the first time they uncorked him a little bit; they can continue to wait to go full throttle with him, which means if Mike Evans is healthy, when you do that later in the season, the offense actually has higher upside.

Insight page

Dallas Goedert

NegativeRole16:57

Identified as a highly tradable player on the Eagles roster; source suggests he could be moved in a potential fire sale as the Eagles rebuild following a 2-4 start and defensive struggles.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection45:12

The source identifies Drake May as a young quarterback making the leap, noting that if you have to beat Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs, you'd like to have May as your quarterback; he is part of a New England team with a 75%+ playoff probability and one of the four easiest remaining schedules by DVOA.

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Jacoby Brissett

NegativeRole7:54

Starting quarterback for Cardinals in Week 6 matchup against Rams; playing with limited receiver options (no Jeremiah Love) and missing key offensive linemen, yet managed to lead game-winning drive with field goal-heavy offense.

Insight page

Jalen Hurts

NegativeInjury2:54

Out for the year with blood clot issues; season-ending injury that removes the Eagles' starting quarterback from fantasy consideration.

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Jared Goff

PositiveValue44:52

The source explicitly prefers Jared Goff over Josh Allen when comparing the Lions and Bills as conference contenders, noting that across all offensive skill positions—receiver, running back, tight end—the answers are all very definitely Detroit, and the offensive line might be Detroit as well at this point.

Insight page

Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection55:47

The source argues that Joe Burrow is ice cold and not scared when facing elite quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen, making him preferable to Lamar Jackson in playoff matchups; the source also notes Burrow could post a 13-4 record and win MVP, and rates Cincinnati at 7% to win the AFC—half the price of Baltimore—making it the best value on the board.

Insight page

Jordan Addison

NegativeInjury36:00

Jordan Addison has missed games this year for Minnesota, contributing to the Vikings' offensive struggles; the team's upside offensively has been capped by the fact that they have not been healthy.

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Jordan Mason

PositiveRole36:00

Jordan Mason is the Vikings' best back and has been missed for four of the five games this season; the Vikings offense has not been fully seen yet because of Mason's injury absences, suggesting higher upside once he returns.

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Jordan Whittington

NegativeRole13:18

Rams receiver mentioned as part of depleted receiving corps after injuries to Devontae Adams; listed among secondary receiving options.

Insight page

Josh Oliver

NegativeInjury36:00

Josh Oliver, who the Vikings use a lot in the red zone, has missed games this year for Minnesota, contributing to the Vikings' offensive struggles; the team's upside offensively has been capped by the fact that they have not been healthy.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection36:00

Justin Jefferson has missed at least two games this year for Minnesota; when he played alongside Kyler Murray in their one game together, they looked pretty good, suggesting the Vikings offense has higher upside once fully healthy.

Insight page

Kenneth Walker III

NegativeInjury32:24

There is concern about the Chiefs being heavily, almost too heavily reliant on Kenneth Walker, and he hasn't exactly been known for his health; if he goes down for a stretch of time, the Chiefs offense is going to hit the skids, which has the source hitting pause on investing in the Chiefs.

Insight page

Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection36:00

Kyler Murray has missed at least one game this year for Minnesota, and when healthy alongside Justin Jefferson, they looked pretty good in their one game together; the Vikings offense has not been fully seen yet because of Murray's injury absences.

Insight page

Lamar Jackson

NegativeInjury48:57

The source expresses concern about Lamar Jackson's health status, stating 'we don't even think is healthy right now' when discussing the Ravens' upcoming gauntlet against the Bengals, Bills, and Jaguars; the source notes uncertainty about whether Jackson will even play in the upcoming Bengals game.

Insight page

Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveRole53:48

The source notes that Marvin Harrison Jr. has helped the Texans' offense transition from having no receivers to having legitimate receiving weapons; the team went from struggling at receiver to now having Harrison, Jalen Noel, and Tank Dell returning, creating a significant boost to the passing game.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeRole13:18

Rams receiver mentioned in context of team's receiving depth after injuries to Devontae Adams; remains available but part of a depleted receiving corps.

Insight page

Saquon Barkley

NegativeRole16:57

Identified as a highly tradable player on the Eagles roster; source suggests he could be moved in a potential fire sale as the Eagles rebuild following a 2-4 start and defensive struggles.

Insight page

Tank Dell

PositiveRole53:48

The source highlights Tank Dell's return to the Texans as a boost to the offense, noting that even if it's just an emotional boost, it's a boost nonetheless; Dell's return completes a receiver group that now includes Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jalen Noel, transforming the Texans from having no receivers to having legitimate depth.

Insight page

Terry McLaurin

NegativeInjury2:54

Likely done for the season; significant injury removes a top receiver from fantasy lineups.

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Travis Kelce

NegativeInjury33:09

Travis Kelce injury would be devastating to the Chiefs, and he is at a stage of career where he could retire any moment he feels like it, making him an unreliable long-term option for Kansas City's receiving corps.

Insight page

Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection45:12

The source identifies Trevor Lawrence as a young quarterback making the leap, noting that if you have to beat Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs, you'd like to have Lawrence as your quarterback; he is part of a Jacksonville team with a 75%+ playoff probability and one of the four easiest remaining schedules by DVOA.

Insight page

Tutu Atwell

NegativeRole13:18

Rams receiver mentioned as part of depleted receiving corps after injuries to Devontae Adams; listed among secondary receiving options.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeRole30:00

Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs' number one receiver option, but the source notes you don't want him as your number one, indicating concern about the quality of Kansas City's receiving corps after Worthy.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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0:00Lisa, tell them about our new show We have a new podcast, it's called Don't Lie to Me I'm Lexi Iwanu, we're
0:07two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have
0:15wildly different references, occasionally different opinions And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all Now in my 30s, being
0:22the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
0:29podcasts Is there an epidemic against literature? More specifically, Black literature I'm Jacqueline Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black
0:36Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Baker, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King
0:44running around And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, we need to know where you came from
0:51And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
0:56Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts
1:04I'm Stacey Vanek-Smith I'm Max Chafkin We are both journalists at Bloomberg Businessweek And our podcast, Everybody's Business, finds the meaning behind
1:11the numbers Things like, why is ice cream so expensive right now?
1:15Is Polymarket the new stock market? And Max, will we ever retire?
1:19Because decoding the money, power, and influence that moves the world is everybody's business Listen to Everybody's Business on the iHeartRadio app,
1:26Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts Bloomberg's Big Take Podcast has everything you need to know about the most expensive midterms in U.S.
1:34history Like the money being spent to control the Senate Everyone has been waiting to see how Trump will spend his big
1:42war chest He was sitting on nearly half a billion dollars How candidates are rewriting their party's playbooks And how big business
1:49is throwing its money into the ring There's obviously the AI super PACs, which are two sides there So they're spending sometimes
1:56on different sides of races, sometimes on the same side of races Listen to the Big Take on the iHeartRadio app, Apple
2:03Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts Peace Peace The Action Network Podcast I'm just about that action, boss Ready!
2:10Hit! Alright, here we go From the tent, throwing in zone Spectacular catch They're saying it's a catch Touchdown!
2:16You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win Oh my god, that's incredible Big bank, small bank, I like to make money Alright?
2:25That is the ultimate kibosh You wanna bet? And we are underway!
2:29Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined, as I am every Tuesday, by the other Brandon
2:37The Futures Analyst, Brandon Anderson, for a deep dive into the Futures Market and more Another NFL weekend in the books Week
2:446 has come and gone, and we take the long view of what to do from here Wild weekend Wild weekend And
2:51it bled into Monday Chris Ballard, the Colts general manager, was canned Basically said I'm good I'll leave Just, I know where
2:58the door is Jalen Hurts Out for the year With blood clot issues Terry McLaurin Is likely done For the season The
3:06Rams can't find a kicker It's wild out there, Brandon I mean, it seems like every time I open up the apps
3:13There's some new news about some season ender for somebody It's crazy It really does feel like the injuries have piled up
3:20Although it sort of feels like it always feels like that So I don't know Maybe is that part of the 18-game
3:27schedule We're getting a little bit more mileage But it also seems like guys are playing a bit more cautious with the
3:35injuries too Like you go on IR, you miss 3-4 games It's not as big of a deal maybe It shouldn't change
3:42that much It's only one extra game But it feels like we just keep trending that way And I think too, not
3:49to make a big talking point out of it It isn't me Or was there just flags all over the place this
3:56weekend Like there's so many soft penalties right now Just like key moments of a game Huge third down stop And it's
4:04like, oh, somebody brushed into somebody So 15 yards in the first down It's just It's a wild NFL right now But
4:11it felt like a really rough product this weekend too It's become Pavlovian at this point When there's not a flag I'm
4:18left waiting for it Yeah You're like, wait Did I miss it?
4:22Have they not flashed the graphic yet? It feels like it's always coming Yeah, like when you watch a soccer game And
4:29now you're trained Like watching Premier League or somewhere that has VAR You see the goal And you like don't celebrate You
4:37turn and you watch And see like Is there an offside?
4:40Is there a check or something? Now too When there's a big play in the NFL You're starting to get that same
4:47response It's like there's a pause Before you get to like Have that elation as a fan Or as a batter And
4:55you're turning And you're like, okay Is it real?
4:58Is what I saw real? Or is something to take it all away now?
5:02It's funny that you mention that I'm brought back to the World Cup I did a couple of Team USA watch parties
5:09in Orlando And it was like I'm not the biggest soccer fan in the world But I watch enough of it to
5:17know What the typical cadence is As far as celebrations go And every time Team USA would score The place would erupt
5:24And I would go Guys, just wait a second Just wait a second Because usually you are met with that sort of
5:31disappointment But I'm reminded I remind myself of this every year Is that with the flags With the injuries With the firings
5:38We all do this I'm guilty of it You're guilty of it We all do this Where we say Doesn't it feel
5:46crazier this year Than in years of the past I wish I could clip us saying that every year And just mash
5:53it together So that it does teach us the lesson That this is just the NFL Players get hurt Refs throw flags
6:00Coaches and GMs get fired Let's get to our market movers Are you buying this?
6:05Are you buying or selling? What are you buying?
6:08You want to sell? Buy it! Time to sell is right now Some buy or sell this week This is where we
6:15hit the hottest stories The biggest market shifts That we need to be aware of Buy or sell After losing to the
6:23Cardinals In walk-off fashion this Sunday We are finally Officially Panicking On the two and four And beat up Rams Yeah, those
6:30Rams Of like let her buy or sell Like three or four times already Is now the time to panic?
6:36How about now? Maybe now Guess what Brandon? Now is actually the time to panic I'm actually buying this one now You
6:44lose as 13 13.5 point favorites At home To a team that kicked field goals That's what happened in this one The
6:51biggest division upset in the NFL Since Tom Brady lost to Carolina With the Bucs 2022 Again, hilariously Special teams Really a
6:58big part of it This time The kicker gets injured They have to go for two Cardinals make six field goals Just
7:05to rub it in On their side of things While the Rams Can barely even kick an extra point I saw Sam
7:13Hoppen's model Had Cardinals Gaining 46% win probability Just special teams Just this game So continues to bite the Rams And the
7:20crazy thing is So you look at the numbers here When the game ends I'm always like Okay How do the yards compare?
7:28How's the yards per play? Just start with some of the high level stuff Relatively even That's the problem though You're not
7:35supposed to play The Cardinals relatively even At home As the big favorite The whole point Is you get the freebie win
7:42here Rams defense Cannot get off the field Arizona has drives of Eight plays 10 12 15 14 What are we doing?
7:49Jacoby Brissette With like very few receivers No Jeremiah Love They're missing their best Offensive linemen And honestly I don't know that
7:57Arizona Even played that great here They just kind of kept Slowly matriculating The ball down the field And then Again Kind
8:04of coin flippy numbers Coin flippy result We get down to the end Arizona completes One big pass With one of those
8:11Pretty You know Haunting Touch flags And suddenly You're in field goal range And that's about it But again You can't let
8:18the game Get to that point As the Rams You can be mad That the flag was there I thought it was
8:26a terrible call But you can't put yourself In a spot Where you need to avoid That play You just need to
8:33get Some wins I'm sure everyone Has heard it by now But Arizona Now more wins At SoFi Stadium Two Than the
8:40Rams And Chargers Combined this year And here's why This is finally The panic moment Brandon This was The easiest win On
8:47LA's schedule And we've said that About a few teams now Where As you look at futures And you're looking at Win
8:55projections And playoff odds This was already Factored in as a win This was already Assumed as a win For the Rams
9:02So you're basically Dropping your win Projection Almost a full win For the Rams And they're so good And they're so assumed
9:09To win so many games You can't just Make up a win That doesn't happen Like you have to win Multiple more
9:16Coin flip games To make up The entire One win You've lost On this one From Next Gen Stats Their playoff odds
9:24For the Rams Dropped from 67 To 43% With a win Versus a loss On this one From Doug Clausen This is
9:31now The fifth Super Bowl favorite That entered The season That is through Six games Has a losing record In the last
9:38Five decades Fifth one Four of those teams Two of the four Ended up with a losing Record that season The other
9:45two Did get to ten And six They won one Playoff game each In the wildcard round And they're out of here
9:53The Rams have built Themselves a huge Huge hole I think we have to Take this very Seriously now Yeah I agree
10:00And I think Still The number hasn't Moved enough on them There's six percent To be the Super Bowl Champion Or converted
10:07To more standard Odds Twelve to one To win the Super Bowl I mean they're still Within the top six I don't
10:14know how You could Rationalize that Betting choice That right now At the moment They have As good of a chance To
10:22finish last place In the NFC West As they do To win the Super Bowl Wow I just can't I've been waiting
10:29For this moment To buy on the Rams We said well You know if they Lose this one Then we can jump
10:36in Because they were This presumptive favorite And obviously we're not Going to buy them As the presumptive favorite But eventually We're
10:43going to get In on the Rams And it feels like Maybe now should be The moment I still don't feel Like
10:51the price is right And I can't help But see what my eyes Are telling me And what the numbers Are telling
10:58us And what the injuries Are telling us You know The biggest thing That can't be overlooked Here is that They went
11:05all in On this Miles Garrett trade And it's produced Zero percent Of a benefit For them And in fact It's been
11:12a net negative Because the guy That they got rid of Has been excellent And Jared Verse Has been helpful To the
11:20Browns defense I just feel like It should be a buy time On the Rams And it's not It sounds like You're
11:27in agreement Yeah I agree We did this With the Texans To an extent too Where we were like Alright maybe now
11:34How about now And books were like No we're not giving it To you And I think actually I'm ready to flip
11:41I'm ready to say Okay I'm ready To short the Rams But not at the Like this price It's still so far
11:49out I don't know if I need it And the Rams schedule We've talked about This opens up a lot The next
11:56four weeks It's Raiders Chargers Commanders And Cardinals Now look You gotta win those games I said that last week And started
12:03with Cardinals Then they lost that game They still have to win But I think now You're in a spot Where if
12:10you win Those four games You get back To six and four And now you're maybe Back to favorite again Not six
12:18But maybe first or second And I think That's where I'm like Okay If you're not gonna Let us have a buy
12:25spot On the team Then I'm just gonna wait For a short spot Because if the numbers Are gonna stay That terrible
12:32Then I have to flip To the other side And you mentioned The injuries Coming out of this game Kind of a
12:39devastating Blow of injuries As well Devontae Adams Hamstring injury Six to ten weeks That is an older player Six to ten
12:47weeks That might be the season We might not see Devontae Adams again And then Two defensive linemen I know you know
12:54About Miles Garrett I know you know About Aaron Donald Kobe Turner And Puna Ford Are really good players Those are Top
13:0130 Players On the D-line By PFF Puna Ford Top five The last two years At PFF Grade Kobe Turner Has been
13:08top 16 Every year of his career There Devontae Adams Obviously a big loss Also You know Puka But after that Konata
13:16Mumfeld Jordan Whittington And Tutu Atwell That's the receivers now I mean really It's the tight ends You want the tight ends
13:23In fantasy But Those three guys Devontae Adams Kobe Turner Puna Ford Whether you know The names or not Those are three
13:30Of the top 12 Or so Most important players On this team That's a quarter Of your most important Players For a
13:37Stars And Scrubs Roster That is out Now Two of them For the season Effectively One of them At least for a
13:45month And longer Obviously we're still Missing Miles Garrett Until we don't know When So with those injuries That now drops That
13:52now drops them In my model Outside the top Five offenses Outside the top Ten defenses Outside the top Ten overall That's
13:59where the Rams are at So now you have A team That is Fringe top Ten And two and Four It was
14:06bad Before When they were Two and three But still look Like a top three Team They no longer Look like a
14:14top Three team Now there's There's still A good team They're plus 644 yards On opposition This year That is the best
14:21In the league This is not a bad Team Notably that stat Does not count Special teams Clearly it should At this
14:28point It's still a quality Team but For reference Those three dudes On the injuries When I take them Out in my
14:35model That shifts About 1.5 Points to the Spread Against the Rams That's about a 5% swing And win probability Every single
14:43Game going forward They probably Need to go 7 and 4 Probably even 8 and 3 The rest of the Way The
14:50odds Of them Getting to That When I take Those three Guys out Drop about 25% That is Very significant That is
14:57a Huge swing And look I don't think They are dead For the playoffs It's the Rams There's obviously A lot of
15:04talent There Even if they Get there Now They're probably A coin flip At best To get there And they're Probably the
15:127th seed And the 7th seed Matters in The NFC Because the 5 and the 6th Probably get to Play An NFC
15:19South Team An NFC East Team The 7th Seed Has to Play An NFC North Team So even That is Already A
15:26huge Swing And it Means Three road Games Just to Get to They still Sit in 2nd In the NFC East But
15:33Buy or Sell The Eagles Have Hit Rock Bottom I think This is It I've Started Writing Out Philly In My Notes With Just The Minus 650 yards.
15:43That's over 100 yards a game. You are allowing more to your opponent.
15:47I think this is the bottom. They're two and four.
15:50There's nothing left to lose. The good news is it's the bottom.
15:54Once you're at the bottom, you can only go one direction.
15:58And now they go Dallas and then Washington and the Giants next.
16:02You have the whole division. And I think the books, if you like Philly, if you want some Philly stock, have sold on the Eagles.
16:10I think there is a chance if you want them to buy in because it's not like the Cowboys are playing great.
16:17It's not like you think the Washington or the Giants are going to be any good.
16:22Nobody's good in the division. And if the Eagles accidentally stumble into a few wins the next few weeks against division opponents, they're plus 550 in the division.
16:32I don't want the ticket. We're on Eagles' mineshaft here.
16:35But if you kind of like them, that's the value play in this division right now.
16:40DK is hanging a 7-1 right now to win the NFC East.
16:44The commanders are at 6-1. I almost fired on the commanders, but I just cannot get past the befuddled look of Dan Quinn's face.
16:52I think the Eagles need to fire sale. They have very tradable players on their roster.
16:57Saquon, Dallas Goddard. I mean, you got to move off of some of these guys and then just build around those benchmark pieces.
17:05Jalen Carter, Cooper DeGene, Devontae Smith, and then just flush everything out.
17:09That team needs an enema in the worst way.
17:12Much more to get to here on the Brandon's Future Show, but first a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
17:18The Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings, where new customers can turn $5 into 200 in total bonus rewards this football season.
17:26DraftKings Sports is now available in all 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips no matter where you're watching.
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17:50Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep football at your fingertips all season long.
17:55DraftKings, the crown is yours. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
17:59Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast.
18:02It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
18:05We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
18:09And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
18:15And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
18:18I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild.
18:22I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
18:29And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
18:37We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser.
18:41We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are.
18:46Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.
18:54Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
18:58Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
19:02Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
19:07I don't really care. The WNBA playoffs are here.
19:10And while the games will be spread across seven different channels and streaming services, you only need one podcast to keep up to date on all the action.
19:19Good Game with Sarah Spain is the only daily podcast for all your WNBA needs.
19:24Be the smartest fan at the sports bar by learning all the W stories, stakes, stats, and stars, and hear from top
19:31players and coaches about their pregame routines, the pressure of playoff basketball, and the moments that define legacies.
19:37Can we actually compete for a championship? And I think the answer is yes.
19:41You know, the best part about Stubwoods is parents have come up to me.
19:46Thank you. You helped my relationship with my daughter so much.
19:50It goes a lot further than you would think.
19:53Every time you underestimate a UConn player, it comes at your own peril.
19:57You know, when you talk about women's sports, it's like Prego spaghetti sauce.
20:01It's in there. You know, commercial, like, it's in there.
20:05You name it, it's in there. Want to know what's really going on in the WNBA?
20:10We got you. Listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:17Vampires, minotaurs, 12-foot skeletons, and apartment doors? Believe it or not, we're talking about romance.
20:22It's a monster romance extravaganza on Radio 831, a romance podcast.
20:26So join me, Sanjana Baskar, and my co-host, Tyler McCall, as we dive into the strange, horny, and wonderfully thoughtful world of falling for something not quite human.
20:35I give Tyler a crash course in monster romance, and the villain edit author Rosie Dannen joins to talk vampires, blood play,
20:42and finding tenderness in a monstrous love interest. Then, sentient object romance expert Racy Delgado takes us even deeper into the genre.
20:49Finally, I assign Tyler some homework to read Siena's Costa's Morning Glory Milking Farm.
20:54And it's a doozy, but spoiler alert, Tyler emerges ready for more monster tales.
20:59Because sometimes, non-human romances can tell us the most about our desire, our fantasies, and what we actually want.
21:05Listen to Radio 831, a romance podcast, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
21:11Hey, it's J.O. from Laugh With Me, the podcast.
21:14So why would you choose Laugh With Me? Well, great question.
21:18Maybe you like comedy, maybe you like sports, maybe you like movies, ridiculous stories, terrible opinions, questionable rankings, and a grown man
21:25somehow turning everyday life into a personal emergency. Or maybe, you just want to hear from a podcast host who has survived
21:32bad bosses, angry customers, questionable career decisions, and a pepper spray attack?
21:36Yeah, that's right. Other podcasts have hosts with broadcasting degrees.
21:39Laugh With Me has a survivor. I'm Jeremy Odom, and every week, I'm joined by comedians, friends, athletes, weirdos, experts, and occasionally,
21:47people who probably should have stopped answering my texts.
21:50Authentic, raw, and just like you. Just jokes, stories, arguments, sports, pop culture, and whatever happened to me this week.
21:56Listen to Laugh With Me, a podcast with Jeremy Odom, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:04This Halloween, join me, Tim Harford, as Cautionary Tales journeys into the paranormal.
22:08We'll travel from 1800s America, where vampires preyed upon a terrified community, to a bizarre 1930s radio experiment, which broadcast telepathic messages,
22:15and on to 1970s England, where intricate crop circles emerged overnight.
22:19Throughout October, I'll be examining strange stories of the supernatural, and asking, what can we learn from them today?
22:25Listen to Cautionary Tales on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:30Now, the moment you've all been waiting for. Isn't that why you're here?
22:34Oh, I can't wait. Let's look at the big picture here.
22:38Time to take a look at the wide view angle of the NFL big picture style.
22:43What are we looking at, BA? All right. Today, we are looking at about a third of the way through the season
22:51in a league of haves and have-nots. There's only two, three, and three teams right now.
22:56So much for being 500. It's the lowest through week six since 2006.
23:00It's have and have-nots. I have right now 13 teams, Brandon, that have at least a 5% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.
23:08And so I want to zoom out and look at that.
23:12Let's rank teams' chances of who makes the Super Bowl.
23:15Let's try to find some futures value along the way.
23:19So as always, I did the rankings. We're in tiers.
23:22We're going to go through from most likely to least and I'll have three bets for you along the way.
23:29All right. Well, let's start with tier one, the towering NFC favorite.
23:32Who might it be? It's the Niners and I think we are underestimating just how towering the 49ers are at this point.
23:40San Francisco, look, you watched the game last night.
23:43That first half, they did anything they wanted. Nine plays, 64 yards, touchdown.
23:47Eight for 72, touchdown. Seven for 66, fumbled. Would have been another touchdown, I'm sure.
23:5214 for 69, touchdown. 20 to three at half.
23:55Could have been any score they wanted. I know it got weird late, but with Mike Evans on the field, they looked ridiculous.
24:02They have been by far the best team in the league.
24:06They're first offensively in DVOA. They're third defensively. That's been the real surprise.
24:10Defensively, they've allowed the fewest explosives in the entire NFL.
24:14I think that's a big part of their success is they're making you slowly work your way down the field.
24:20And I think I've been guilty of this as much as anyone else is that I think we kind of look at
24:28the Niners and we're like, yeah, but the injuries though, the substation, like it's all going to come crashing down and that may or may not be true.
24:37We don't really know how to project injuries yet, but I don't think the books are taking fully into account just how
24:44good a position the Niners are in right now six weeks in.
24:48They win. The Seahawks and Rams both lose games that they both clearly should have won.
24:53San Fran is now up three and a half games on Seattle, four and a half on the Rams.
24:59After six weeks, like that's a crazy margin. FTN has the Niners 95% to win the division.
25:0595%, obviously by far the most likely division winner and it's the NFC.
25:09You win the division. We know you're a top two seed because the NFC East and NFC South are terrible.
25:16So now the Niners are 92% for a top two seed.
25:20There's 74% for the one seed because they're projected at 14 or so wins.
25:24The next closest is Minnesota, the other division leader who's at 11.
25:28We have obvious caution on Vikings, which we'll get to them.
25:32A three win cushion in the division and projected wins in the entire NFC is a huge cushion.
25:38So if we're zooming out, you're the one seed.
25:41The one seeds get a bye week. They get rest.
25:44You're an old team with injuries. You need rest.
25:47They're going to get rest. It's coming. And maybe more than a game.
25:51They could clinch the one seed before week 18.
25:54They might get multiple weeks of rest and they now play at Atlanta.
25:58It's going to be a tough one because they're pretty shorthanded, but then they get their other week of rest.
26:05Their bye week comes after that. And as much as we talked about all the injuries, they're going to be mostly healthy after that bye week.
26:14Nick Bosa should be back. Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and Demarcus Robinson and Debo Samuel, all the receivers probably back.
26:21Dwayne Greenlaw will be back. Marcus Siegel will be back at safety.
26:25That team is going to be mostly healthy actually.
26:27I think this was the rough injury spot and they went undefeated.
26:31And they actually have a top five easiest schedule left by DVOA.
26:35So, I think the Niners are clearly the favorite for the one seed.
26:40You can bet that 59% at prediction markets. I think there's value there.
26:44If they're the one seed, you have to like their chances to do stuff.
26:49We know how one seeds go when you get to the playoffs because the best way to play a playoff game is to not play one.
26:57You get the only bye and then you're suddenly at home, maybe against the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Panthers or the Falcons.
27:05And now, you're in the NFC Championship as the home favorite.
27:09So, here's the bet. 49ers to win the NFC.
27:12It's at 25% in the prediction market. I think that is about half the price it should be right now, which is a crazy margin.
27:20And it's given that huge head start we've given the 49ers.
27:24I think that you get hopefully a one seed out of this.
27:27You win the next game. Now, you're sitting on a 3-1 home money line favorite in the NFC Championship and you can
27:35figure out what you want to do from there.
27:38The impressive thing with their offense too is that they felt like last night, I know because I bet the under on
27:45rush attempts for Christian McCaffrey, but they haven't really needed to use him all that much.
27:50And last night felt like the first time they uncorked him a little bit and they can continue to sort of wait
27:57to go full throttle with Christian McCaffrey, which means with if Mike Evans is healthy, when you do that later on in
28:05the season, the offense actually has higher upside. And there's one other name that should be back by the end of the
28:12year when you're trying to cash this ticket is their rookie sensation.
28:16Dejon Stribbling, who was the star of the preseason, but you're right.
28:20It's the defense that impresses me the most because we know the offense is good.
28:25Number two and points allowed behind only the Minnesota Vikings who already had their bite week, top five EPA and Malik Mustafa.
28:32If you just like tackling, watch the highlights of this guy.
28:36He might be the best tackler in the NFL.
28:39Really impressive what this defense is doing right now.
28:42I'm with you on the San Francisco 49ers, and I'm glad that you were able to guide us in a way where
28:49we can buy on this team that right now is sky high.
28:53Let's go to tier two. Well, this feels familiar.
28:56It just feels like the bills and the chiefs are always in this discussion around this tier in the NFL.
29:02Yeah, here we are a third of the way into the season, and we thought it would be different.
29:09Every show I listened to before the season talked about the wide open AFC.
29:13Guess what? It's Josh and Pat in the AFC and it's the NFC that's wide open and everything flipped upside down again.
29:21So, look, already you see a big difference in the conferences.
29:24There's two teams in the AFC towering at the top.
29:27By the books, there's another one even, which we'll get to a little bit later.
29:32In the NFC, it's just the Niners and then the huge drop after that.
29:37And we know that you don't quite believe in the Niners like some of these other teams too.
29:43So, it's Josh Allen, it's Patrick Mahomes. We've seen this movie before.
29:47We don't need to go so long on these teams.
29:50It's Chiefs 5-0 coming off of their bye. Bills 5-1 heading into their bye.
29:55Buffalo, I think, just escaped its harder schedule spot.
29:58The Chiefs schedule is about to get tougher, so advantage Buffalo there.
30:02Advantage Kansas City and that obviously the weakest link of the four here is the Bills defense.
30:07We know that, but I think the Bills offense is the strongest, especially with all those Chiefs receivers.
30:13Their receiving core is really rough right now after Xavier Worthy and you don't want him as your number one.
30:20So, why these teams are a tier below is because there's two of them.
30:24They're not as good a position as the Niners.
30:27They're not as good a position in the division either.
30:31The Bills are up one in the Patriots who beat them head to head.
30:35So, that's a tenuous spot. The Chiefs are up one in the Broncos.
30:40The Chiefs beat the Broncos, so better shape for the division, but they're in each other's way to win the AFC and
30:47so is Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and so are the Jaguars and the Texans.
30:52Some of the other teams will get to and by comparison, the Niners are up much more in the division and their
30:59top one seed competition is the Vikings. So, let's just be honest later, obviously we know a Josh Allen team or Mahomes
31:06team can get to the Super Bowl out of the AFC.
31:10Right now at FTN, these teams have combined 65% combined odds for the one seed.
31:15So, in all likelihood, on Championship Sunday, one of these two teams and one of these two quarterbacks is hosting.
31:21That's where we're at. It's where we've been at for like six, seven, eight years now.
31:27The road to the AFC still runs through Josh and Pat and you might have to beat both of them if you're one of the other AFC teams.
31:36And I don't think that there is a reason to bet those teams right now, but it's important that we set the
31:43stage because there's a lot of other intriguing AFC teams and unfortunately they got to get through both of these guys.
31:50Yeah, then there's only one quarterback I trust in the AFC to get through both of these guys.
31:56We'll talk about him in a little bit with the bills.
32:00I find talking about them from a future perspective really tough because I just feel like we've been saying the same thing for about six years.
32:08It's Josh Allen. It's a struggling defense. It's turnovers.
32:11They've coughed the ball up five times on fumbles alone.
32:15And I do think the defense showed life against the Raiders.
32:18Four minutes left, Raiders down seven. The bills forced a three and out, gave the ball back to Buffalo.
32:24They were able to take a 10-point lead with a field goal.
32:28That's defense winning a game for Buffalo. That usually doesn't happen, but it just feels like we have the same dialogue with Buffalo all the time.
32:37With Kansas City, my concern with them, and I'm curious to get your thoughts on this, is there a paranoia I have
32:44before I invest in the Chiefs about the way they're using Kenneth Walker.
32:48They seem heavily, almost too heavily reliant on him, and he hasn't exactly been known for his health.
32:54If he goes down for a stretch of time, this offense, Brandon, is going to hit the skids, and that's what has
33:02me hitting pause on the Chiefs is I feel like they're overusing a player that is bound for the injury report.
33:09Yeah, I thought about that yesterday. I thought about a Travis Kelsey injury would actually be devastating to the Chiefs.
33:15That's where we're at on the receiving options for that team for a guy that could retire any moment he feels like it.
33:23That's the stage of career we're at with him.
33:26Let me tell you where I'm at on Kenneth Walker.
33:29This is true. Yesterday, Monday morning, I woke up and apparently realized that I dreamt vividly overnight that Kenneth Walker tore his Achilles.
33:37I was so sad and I was like, oh no, what do the Chiefs do?
33:42Right before the Chiefs have to play the Seahawks, it's this old team we're robbed of that matchup and the Seahawks explosives.
33:49I woke up and my mind exploded in all these ways.
33:52I was like, wait, did that happen? I don't think it happened.
33:56I think I might have dreamt that. I had to look it up and figure out, that did not happen.
34:03But you're right. There's not a lot there. Offensively, the line has not been that great.
34:08They have a lot of injuries there. They're running out of receivers.
34:12They hopefully will get some guys back at some point.
34:15We're not going to bury either one of these teams.
34:19We know the flaws. The flaws are what we just said.
34:22The flaws of the Bills defense are clear. But you still have Josh, you still have Pat, and it's still going to
34:30be there in the playoffs, which is what we should have known going into the season.
34:35So we'll have plenty of time on these teams.
34:38There will be chances to buy at a lower spot on these teams.
34:42This is not the spot. Let's move to tier three, the most likely underdogs.
34:47Who ends up landing on this list? Yeah, so I put these teams at like 8-12% to make the Super Bowl.
34:54For reference, the last tier was more for reference, by my numbers, there's about a 25% chance that the Super Bowl is just Niners Chiefs or Niners Bills.
35:0325%, 1-4 that we have our Super Bowl right now.
35:06It's about the same odds that none of those three teams make the Super Bowl.
35:11So put differently, about 75%, we get at least one Niners Chiefs or Bills in the Super Bowl right now, which is
35:18much more confident by the probability than I feel right now based on what I've been watching.
35:24And here's why. It's because it's a huge drop to rest of these teams.
35:29Here are the four teams I'm putting in this group at 8-12% to make the Super Bowl.
35:34Number four, I can't believe this, the Minnesota Vikings, the number five Detroit Lions, six New England Patriots, and seven Jacksonville Jaguars.
35:41So before I get into thoughts on those teams, just thoughts overall on that group of four.
35:47I was a little surprised to see the Vikings.
35:50in their dead last and offensive success rate. But if I could give them a little bit of grace where I think
35:57I could make the case for them to be a part of this discussion is when you look at the players that
36:05have missed at least one game this year for Minnesota, Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, Christian Derrisaw, their left
36:12tackle, TJ Hawkinson, Josh Oliver, who they use a lot in the red zone.
36:16So maybe their upside offensively has been capped by the fact that they have not been healthy.
36:22And I don't know, this defense is so good.
36:25I'm kind of tired of doubting them. When I first saw this list, they're the ones that stood out that I'm like, absolutely not.
36:33I don't think you can sell them to me, but they have a clear superpower.
36:38I'm very curious to see if they can establish some dominance this week against the Colts, because it feels like the only
36:45team on their schedule and they've played some cupcakes.
36:48The only team that they have dominated was the saints.
36:51And it was just a 10 point win, but it never felt like the saints were close in that game.
36:58But that entire team in new Orleans had the flu that week.
37:02So I don't know how seriously to take that.
37:05I need to see them curb stomp somebody before I can fully trust that this is a team that, yeah, they're not
37:12as sexy as these other teams that have done it or have better quarterback play.
37:17But I'm not completely out on it. That's my long winded way of saying I'm okay with it, but I'm skeptical.
37:24Yeah. So for regular listeners know that I am, of course, a Vikings fan, but also if you know that about me,
37:31you hopefully know part two of that, which is I'm a Viking skeptic like this.
37:36I assure you is not a fandom pick here.
37:39I bet against my own teams as much as anybody is out there.
37:43I'm a terrible Minnesota sports fan. So we'll get to that in a I think these four teams, Vikings, Lions, Patriots, Jaguars,
37:51I know it's kind of a common theme here as I get to them.
37:55Strong start so far despite the injuries, despite the missing guys for all four teams.
38:00I think for good reason, similarly, to believe the team should be better going forward, that we've actually seen maybe the worst of them so far.
38:09And then for the most part, soft winnable schedules, which is a relief again for some of these teams.
38:15So yeah, you kind of made the case for me on the Vikings.
38:19I'm as surprised as anyone that they're fourth here, but it's about the setup.
38:24They're 5-0. They're clear NFC North favorites. And look, if we're at number four, so far right now, if you had to
38:31project who are the top two seeds in each conference, you have the Niners, you have the Bills and the Chiefs, there's
38:38one spot left, it's in the NFC, and it's the NFC North champion, and the Vikings are almost a coin flip to be that team right now.
38:47So that's basically the answer, Brandon. That's where we get to is, by default, if they're the two seed, they have to
38:55be most likely among the teams left to get to the Super Bowl because they're set, and look, if they're the two
39:02seed and the Niners stumble at all, they're the one seed, and now you get a bye week, and now you don't
39:09have to play one of those games after that.
39:12We know about the defense, number one, the special teams is number one.
39:16That part makes me a little tenuous just because that feels not sticky at all, and we'll see if those plays are still there.
39:24The offense, you nailed it. So far this season in five games, because they already had the bye week, they've basically missed
39:32two games of Kyler Murray, two games of Justin Jefferson, four of the five without Jordan Mason, who I think is their
39:39best back, and then Addison, Hawkinson, Derrissaw, Jawan Jennings.
39:42Let's see, after a bye week, after two weeks of practice and a healthy team, let's see the offense, because I don't think we've seen it yet, honestly.
39:51I don't think we've really seen, we've seen Kyler and Jefferson play one game together, and they look pretty good in that game.
39:59Minnesota offense also faces the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL the rest of the way, thanks to the Lions and to
40:06the Bears, partly on that one, I'm sure. So the schedule overall for Minnesota gets much harder.
40:11They go fourth easiest to fourth hardest, but the offensive schedule gets a lot easier.
40:16Right now, they're about 85% for playoffs, 50% almost to win the division.
40:21They have to be fourth here, but that's the setup for my number five team, which is going to be the team
40:28we're batting, which is the Detroit Lions, because if you want to fade the Vikings, and if you think that the Lions
40:35are the team to invest in, it's the same argument, because if the Vikings slip and the Lions win the division, now
40:42they get that sweet two seed spot. So defensively, we know the Lions have struggled, but we just said it with the
40:50Vikings, the flip side is true here. The Lions have the easiest schedule of remaining offenses in the league.
40:56So that's going to help the defense, and so is Brian Branch, because he's back finally this week at safety, and Brian
41:03Branch is so, so important to this team. From true media, since 2023, the Lions have had the number three defensive success
41:10rate in the NFL with Brian Branch, their 30th without him.
41:14Their third best with Brian Branch on the field, their third worst with him off the field.
41:20So we'll see just how quickly he's himself after the Achilles injury, but he is a huge, huge swing for this team,
41:27probably like a top four or five most important player for them.
41:31Cade Mays is back now on the offensive line.
41:34That young line has actually played pretty well. They might be a top five unit, much better than I expected them to be.
41:41I have Detroit now fourth, fourth in my power ratings.
41:45I did not expect this team to get that high, but with the line playing better, with Branch back, now it's home for Green Bay and Minnesota.
41:54Those aren't easy, but you like them at home.
41:57We know how good Jared Goff is at home.
41:59So for a third straight week, as I do my futures outlook here, it's the Lions.
42:05That are like lighting up with value here. However you want to bet it, we've given it out a couple times already.
42:12For the playoffs, minus 150 at DraftKings. That's got a good number there.
42:16I have them about 75% to make the playoffs.
42:19That would be minus 300, so double that. Division, they're plus 330.
42:23We gave that out already. I think there's still value there as well.
42:27They still have all six division games to come as they're getting healthy.
42:32We like that for the Lions. So I think if you want to invest in the Lions and fade the Vikings, there's
42:39your setup for the two seed, maybe even the one seed, I think there's value on Lions to win the NFC at 7%.
42:47I have them about 8.5% or 9%, so a little bit of value there.
42:51The bet I prefer is at prediction markets, you can bet what's called NFC Championship Game Qualifier.
42:57What that means is you made the NFC Championship Game.
43:00You're in the final four. It's 12%, and I think that is the bet to make.
43:05It's one less win with this defense, and I'm going to trust the Lions defense to win four times.
43:12How about twice? How about twice in the playoffs?
43:15Maybe even one if we get lucky and get a bye.
43:18I think there's a lot of edge there. 12%, it's too low, and I think the Lions are the spot to invest in the NFC.
43:26Yeah, so I've been doing some digging on how to feel about the Lions.
43:31I've come to the conclusion that they're basically just the discount Buffalo Bills.
43:35These teams really are carbon copies of each other, and I think because the Bills have Josh Allen and maybe some of
43:43this involves the competitiveness of the conferences or whatever, though I would make the argument that the AFC is perhaps tougher to
43:50get through than the NFC is, but because they have Josh Allen, you have to pay a steeper price, but Detroit's offense
43:57is tied with Buffalo for the most points per game, 32.8, and boy, do we not treat them the same.
44:04Part of that is third down conversion rate. They're 22nd in the NFL, you know, and I mentioned last week that I'm
44:11not all that impressed with their line in doing some more digging and looking at offensive line impact scores.
44:17They rank fourth, so you're right. This is a top five unit based on what they've produced, but they are heavily penalized,
44:24fourth most penalized offensive line in the NFL, but when everything is on schedule for this offense, they're unstoppable, so replace Josh
44:32Allen with Jameer Gibbs and friends, and you have a much better price on the Lions to make it out of their conference than the Buffalo Bills.
44:41These two teams feel eerily similar to each other.
44:44Yeah, I think eerily similar, but in the conference you would far prefer to have to come out of, and that's the big difference.
44:52You're trading, like you didn't say the name Jared Goff, so let's say the name Jared Goff instead of Josh Allen.
44:58Like we know which one you want, but look at the rest of the team.
45:03Which receiver do you want? Which running back do you want?
45:07Which tight end do you want? Because the answers are all very definitely Detroit, and honestly the offensive line might be Detroit
45:14at this point too, as good as Buffalo's has been.
45:18I think Detroit has been as good, so that's the path there.
45:22Patriots and Jaguars in this tier, both north of 75% for the playoffs.
45:26I have them as the fourth and first easiest schedule left by DVOA, so they're set up pretty well.
45:32Young quarterbacks both kind of making the leap. You want that.
45:36If you've got to beat Allen and Mahomes, you'd like to have Trevor Lawrence, you'd like to have Drake May.
45:42I think probably both top 10 defenses. These teams can win games multiple ways.
45:47Jacksonville, I would probably slightly prefer as a team.
45:50I like their coaching better, certainly, and I like their versatility better.
45:54I think New England has a slightly better path in the playoffs.
45:58They have a shot at a top two seed because they're kind of catching up on the bills and the division there,
46:05and we have some doubts on the bills perhaps defensively, so I don't see a lot of value on either of these
46:12teams right now because, look, there's not a ton of value in bet an AFC or NFC team win the championship.
46:19Books are not looking to give us value on these teams, but I do think Patriots and Jaguars belong in this group.
46:26I'm having a hard time with Jacksonville because I was a big Jags buyer coming into the season, but the fact that
46:34they barely beat the Eagles when Jalen Hurts didn't sleep the night before is not sitting well with me.
46:40No team. I'd mentioned offense. Well, number one on that list is the Jaguars.
46:45Their offensive line cannot stop racking up the penalties, whether they're earned or not, because I know that was a big discussion this past weekend.
46:53Their defense is number one in red zone takeaways, which to me feels like the chancyest variance reliant stat that's out there.
47:00I don't like that. That does not feel sticky at all.
47:04And they are not getting after the quarterback 25th and sacks.
47:07It just feels like between the penalties and reliance on red zone turnovers and not sacking the quarterback.
47:13They're just on thin ice right now, but I can't sell them because their upcoming schedule after the buy is Colts Ravens.
47:20That's a tough one. Colts, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Titans.
47:23Those are four of those five. If they don't go four and one over that stretch, something has gone wrong.
47:30So hard time to sell on Jacksonville. Yeah. I mean, the whole schedule, the rest of the way is a hard time to sell on Jacksonville.
47:39So I I'm with you on the feeling tentative about the defense.
47:43What's crazy is I agree. The turnovers should not be sticky.
47:46We have a lot of stats that tell us that, but who was great at turnovers and red zone last year, the Jacksonville defense.
47:54I don't know. Maybe Campanelli has found some sort of way to, to, to, to skip around some of the things and make it sticky after all.
48:03Let's go to tier four. A lot has to go right.
48:07This is the six to 7% tier. Yeah. So I've got four teams in this tier, a lot of AFC representation here.
48:14It is at number eight, the Ravens, nine Texans, 10 bears and 11 bangles.
48:18And look six or 7% here, eight to 10 last year.
48:22You could say this is more like tier three B, but it's still a big drop from those teams at the top.
48:29And the Ravens are not being priced like it.
48:32The Ravens are plus five 20 at DraftKings to win the AFC barely behind the bills and the chiefs that by, by
48:40the books alone, they should have been in tier two, two tiers up from this one.
48:45That's implies 16%. I have them 7%. I think that is maybe the worst number on the board.
48:51And I really like the Ravens. Like I really like this team.
48:55And I still just think that's a terrible number.
48:58They, again, we've said this about how many teams they gave away one of their most winnable games on the schedule.
49:05And look, it's not quite as bad because no Lamar Jackson, but they should have beat the Browns.
49:11They were in control. They're double digits up and it's the Ravens.
49:14You're losing now two blown huge leads already, two fourth quarter losses already.
49:19The thing they were supposed to have fired and gotten rid of and fixed last year.
49:24They're still doing the same stupid Ravens stuff. And they've had the second easiest schedule so far.
49:30They now have the hardest remaining schedule, including immediately.
49:33You can't invest in the Ravens right now because look where we're going.
49:37Bengals coming off the bye, coming to you. If Lamar Jackson even plays, we don't know.
49:42Then at Buffalo, who's on bye week right now.
49:45So two in a row against powerhouses coming off a bye week.
49:49Then Thursday night, so they don't get a little rest.
49:52They go immediately Thursday to that Jacksonville game you just said.
49:56And Jacksonville has their bye week right before that.
49:59So they have three powerhouse AFC teams and look, I like the Ravens.
50:03I think the Ravens could win any of those games.
50:07They could win all of them. But how can you bet Ravens futures right now when they're about to have to run
50:14that gauntlet with the quarterback that we don't even think is healthy right now.
50:18So I think that is probably at least in the AFC the worst price on the board.
50:24The best price is the Texans and we're going to buy the Texans a second straight week.
50:30They needed that one Sunday morning. They got it.
50:33That was an awesome game. That felt like a playoff game against Jacksonville.
50:37I thought that felt honestly like it could have been the AFC championship game.
50:42That's how good those teams both are. Houston against that really good defense.
50:467.2 yards per play for the entire game. CJ Stroud is awesome right now.
50:50He is a top 10 quarterback and 10 is too high.
50:54This is a top five passing offense by DVOA right now.
50:58This was the one they had to have for the division.
51:01They are now basically a game and a half back.
51:05Colts are dead. Titans are dead. It's just them and Jacksonville.
51:08Jacksonville still has a bunch of their schedule. Lots of easy ones, but they have I think only three true home games left.
51:16They still go at Baltimore, at Chicago, at Houston, at Dallas.
51:19We'll see about Dallas, but four probably tough road games.
51:23Texans next four. Giants, Chargers, Browns, Colts. That smells like six and four to me.
51:28They have the second easiest schedule left, so Jacksonville and Houston are the top two there.
51:33By the odds, Houston is now officially above 50% to make the playoffs, even at two and four.
51:39They're up to about two to one to win the division now.
51:43They are priced 17 to one at DraftKings to win the AFC.
51:47That's eighth. That prices them as not a playoff team for starters.
51:51Here are the teams behind the Texans. I think this is crazy.
51:55The Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, okay, they all suck.
51:58The Colts, the Raiders, the Steelers, and the Browns.
52:01That's who we're putting the Texans with? They're so much better than all of those teams.
52:06So 17 to one is five and a half percent implied.
52:09I have it like seven percent, so a smaller edge.
52:13Again, the way I'm betting this is like with Detroit.
52:16Give me the AFC championship game qualifier. Give me Houston to make the playoffs and win two games.
52:22Get to the AFC championship. It is four percent right now.
52:26Get out of here at four percent. I have this more like 15 percent.
52:30This is a clear top ten team. They're right back in this thing.
52:35If you can't bet those markets, you can bet just win the AFC, win the NFC.
52:40Even if you don't like them in the matchup, you'll have options with a ticket.
52:45If you like this one, if you want a fun ticket, I looked it up.
52:50The Texans are 35 to one at DraftKings to win the whole thing right now.
52:55And I think they're alive to do it. Yeah, this team is really encouraging with what we've seen recently.
53:01They needed that win so bad. It was a 30 percent playoff probability swing in beating Jacksonville to if they had lost.
53:08They went from 17 percent with a loss 47 percent to make the playoffs with a win.
53:14We talked about this on last week's episode. You handed out Texans five to one to win the division.
53:20That's basically slashed in half at this point. No reason to not get in on the Texans market and they get tank Dell back.
53:28So nice emotional boost for a team that has all of a sudden they went from no receivers to I like what Marvin Harrison Jr.
53:36did to help this offense. Jalen Noel looked great.
53:39Now they get tank Dell back. Even if it's just an emotional boost, it's a boost nonetheless.
53:45I like the Texans bet. Yeah, I think I have the Texans like seventh in my wide receiver rankings now.
53:51Like that happened real fast because this is a team that could find nobody to throw the ball to Bears and Bengals.
53:59The other teams in this tier kind of similar opposite conference teams, all offense, not a lot of defense.
54:05They're both in loaded divisions. That's the problem here is they both are in divisions where everybody is over 500.
54:11That means lots of tough games, lots of losable games, especially when your defense is this bad.
54:17It probably means you're going to be not the division winner.
54:21And now you got three road games to get to the Super Bowl.
54:25And that's what the odds are here. So Dennis Allen has done awesome with Chicago's defense.
54:30Kyler Gordon back is huge for that team. We saw his impact immediately this week.
54:35I think the NFC playoff picture obviously is softer like we talked about.
54:39If the Bears are not the seventh seed, but the five or the sixth, they might even be favored in round one.
54:47I think they're set up nicely. I prefer them to the Bengals kind of same old, same old with the Bengals defense
54:54and the line slightly better as much as we wanted.
54:57No, but slightly better. I think if you want Bengals stock, I think you prefer regular season Bengals stock.
55:04I could see Bengals 13 and four. I could see Joe Burrow MVP.
55:08I think maybe that's the way you bet the team.
55:11I don't love betting either of these teams in the playoffs with their defenses.
55:16So I agree on the Bears. There's always one team that I, in every sport, there's just, I think we all have this.
55:23There's that team. You just feel like you can't quite get a wrangle on.
55:28I cannot make sense of the Bears. I can't tell if I fully love their offense.
55:33I can't tell if their defense is underrated, overrated, non-existent.
55:36You know, it's like I like them one week and then they get roasted by Jordan love.
55:42And then all of a sudden Kyle pits has his best game of the year.
55:47It's a very weird team. So I don't know what to do with the Bears.
55:52I'll leave them to the side. I am completely on the other side of this with the Cincinnati Bengals.
55:58I think that's the best value on the board.
56:017% to win the AFC. They're half the price of the Baltimore Ravens.
56:05Somebody please tell me why the Ravens are twice as expensive as the Cincinnati Bengals.
56:10The defense looked elite in the first couple of weeks.
56:14They're not. Obviously that was overstated, but we didn't need this defense to be elite.
56:19We needed them to be league average. And I think that they're good enough to be that.
56:24I would like the, if they ran the ball better, if they ran the ball more, but honestly, if you have burrow,
56:31if you have chase, if you have Higgins, do we really need to downgrade them if they can't run the football and
56:39you get to the playoffs and you tell me who are you going to trust more going up against my homes, going up against Josh Allen?
56:47Is it Lamar Jackson who hasn't really done that successfully yet?
56:51Or is it Joe Burrow who is ice cold, not scared when he goes up against these guys?
56:57I love the improvements I've seen and I love the bargain that we're still getting on Cincinnati.
57:02I don't get it. So a win against the Ravens would go a long way in changing that price.
57:09I like Cincinnati a lot. Yeah. I mean, I think, I think this week is a great opportunity for you.
57:15So that's a little, a little hint toward what will be my one thing today.
57:20Let's wrap up with tier five here. Last season is a distant memory because tier five is two teams.
57:27It's the Rams and it's the Seahawks and they're only included here because they're 12th and 13th.
57:32And I think their odds are the worst on the board for teams to make the Super Bowl.
57:38I have these teams at about 5% to make, not win, to make the Super Bowl.
57:43Seahawks barely above 50% to make the playoffs. The Rams below that now.
57:48We talked at length about the Rams already earlier.
57:51Neither offense feels right right now. Like it just, it feels off.
57:55You will watch them and it just feels wrong.
57:58It feels out of rhythm. Part of that is the explosives have disappeared.
58:02They're both in the bottom half of the league, explosives running and passing.
58:06And that's a huge swing from last year. It just, everything is harder for these teams right now on the offense.
58:13The division is gone. Remember nine Niners are 95% to win the division.
58:17So at best you make the playoffs as a wild card and you need to win three road games just to make the Super Bowl.
58:26That's the first problem here. And we said this before they play each other two of the last three games of the
58:33season and the way things are trending, they might be fighting for one spot that the playoffs start early for the Seahawks
58:40and the Rams are in the playoffs already. Like they got to start winning playoff games right now to get to the playoffs.
58:48Even so to win the NFC right now, the Rams are second at plus 650 and the Seahawks are third at plus 700 implied 13% each.
58:56I have them 5% each. That is ludicrous. If you want to bet the no at prediction markets, like I'm not going
59:03to tell you to bet you bet like a, you know, a 90% and tie your money up that way.
59:10But the odds are in your favor at the numbers posted there.
59:14I mentioned with the Rams maybe after a soft month we get a little better no price there.
59:20But most importantly, if the Rams and Seahawks are priced together at like 26% to come out of the NFC and it's
59:27really 10, that's 16% extra that belongs somewhere else.
59:30I think it belongs to the Niners and to the Lions and that's what we would bet them instead.
59:36Yeah, I'm with you. I would love to find that buy point on the Rams, but as we discussed earlier, it's just simply not there.
59:45I'm out. Devante Adams, the defensive injuries, the special teams woes.
59:48They still can't find a kicker. Sean McVay seems off to me.
59:52Matt Stafford has really struggled with consistency. This is a Bill Barnwell stat I found today.
59:57Stafford's completion percentage over expectation on deep passes went from plus 5.8 last year in his MVP season, which was one of
60:05the highest marks in the league to minus 8.5 in 2026.
60:08It's just been a different quarterback and the Seahawks plus 670 to win the conference.
60:13That is a horrendous bet. Horrendous. How are they?
60:16The second short shot makes no sense to me.
60:19Get it while it's hot. I mean, how long am I supposed to keep it for a week or so?
60:26Buy low, sell high. Time for our weekly trading segment.
60:29Buy now, sell later. I got a good one for you.
60:33Let's go with the New Orleans Saints 15% to win the NFC South.
60:37The Panthers are 54 and a half percent right now in the prediction markets to win the division.
60:43No one in week seven should be laying minus 120 in this division up by one game.
60:49You talk about ludicrous. That is ludicrous. The saints are one game back.
60:53These two teams haven't even played each other yet.
60:56The saints get the Steelers neutral site Browns. And then the Panthers after that, if at any point in the next three
61:03weeks, if the saints go on a little bit of a run here and the saints then flip it around and emerge
61:10as a minus one 20, like what we're seeing with the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South, where a different team
61:18in this division has been favored just about every week to win the NFC South a plus five 50.
61:24We buy now. We sell our position later. I mean, look, the best thing I can say for your bet is that
61:31I think the Panthers are going to lose this week to my Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
61:36The real bet you should be making the division for the 700th time box Island.
61:41Let's go. I knew you weren't going to be able to leave that one alone.
61:46All right. Quick futures recap. VA likes the 49ers to win the NFC at 25% NFC championship qualifiers.
61:52So you just have to make it to the final four lions at 12% and an AFC championship game qualifier on the Houston Texans at 4%.
62:00Love those three bets. Love those three teams. A buy on all of them.
62:05Take us home, Brandon. What's our one last thing?
62:08Can I say one more thing? This better be important.
62:11There's one more thing before I go. Yeah. You mentioned the bangles play the Ravens this week in Baltimore.
62:18We also have Packers at lions. These are huge, huge futures games.
62:21These are pivot games in the futures market. So that's the one thing.
62:26If you like a side in Packers lions, forget the plus or minus three, we can do so much better.
62:32Pick a team to make the playoffs, pick a team to win the division, pick a team to win the NFC.
62:39Maybe if you like green Bay, maybe they're the team you like rather than the lions in the spot.
62:46Packers were would have been one of my next teams off the list in our rankings.
62:51Ravens bangles. I think there's even more possibility. Again, if you like the bangles, Brandon, maybe it's a division bet, skip, skip
62:58betting the side, grab the division because they win the game.
63:02They're looking really good in the division. Now, after that or MVP odds right now, Joe Burrow, 16 to one, Lamar Jackson, 25 to one.
63:10If you're not invested yet, or even if you are, whoever you think wins that game.
63:15If you're right, you'll want that MVP ticket after that, because one of these teams is going to emerge and kind of make a push here.
63:24So if you're confident, skip the size, skip the spread investing futures.
63:28There are more than one way to bet a game.
63:31Well, you just nailed two of the ones. I'll be sprinting to the window to go and bet after this show, which
63:38is the lions and the bangles love their position right now in the 2026 season.
63:43A goodbye from us. That'll do it for today.
63:46Keep an eye out for Stucky and Doug's week seven betting preview on Wednesday, the touchdown show on Thursday.
63:52And then Brandon Anderson is back with the NFL playground shoots, ladders, parlays, and the works.
63:58That is a, you are so close to a monster weekend.
64:01I was following that. I love the Christian Watson stuff that you put out there and boy, boy, did that.
64:08It's just pure pain. You got screwed over in that one.
64:12That's all for us this week. Go and find all of this on the action network podcast presented by draft Kings.
64:18Make sure that your bet sinking on the action app.
64:22I'll be back on the favorites. See if we can go five and Oh, two weeks in a row with our contest plays.
64:29It was a hot week six on the favorites until next time.
64:33Good luck out there. Action network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
64:37If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 seven at one 800 gambler.
64:44Someone once said, everybody's got a plan till they get punched in the mouth.
64:48I did Mike Tyson. Oh, well, Mike Tyson and boost are here to tell you that your mobile plan is punching you
64:55in the mouth with prices that can knock you out.
64:59That's a low blow. Totally. But you can do something about it.
65:03You have to punch back. No, Mike, you got to switch the boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever.
65:10Oh, that's a great plan. Maybe you can do both.
65:13Boost Mobile. What's your plan? Lisa, tell them about our new show.
65:17We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me.
65:20I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
65:25And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
65:31And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
65:35Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business.
65:40Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
65:44Is there an epidemic against literature? More specifically, Black literature.
65:47I'm Jacqueline Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black Lit podcast, we're outside asking why.
65:53They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Baker, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King's on the ground.
65:59And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, you need to know where you came from.
66:06And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
66:11Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
66:18On recent episodes of the Questlove show, I chatted with JoJo about her music and WALO267 about his story and everything in between.
66:26Don't invite me to karaoke. I'm going to make it weird.
66:30Someone's going to try to sing Leave Get Out or Too Little Too Late or Baby It's You.
66:36Oh no. And I'm going to be like, okay, cool.
66:39Check out my conversation with JoJo, WALO267, and more on the Questlove show.
66:43Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
66:49Peace. Bloomberg's Big Take podcast has everything you need to know about the most expensive midterms in U.S.
66:55history, like the money being spent to control the Senate.
66:58Everyone has been waiting to see how Trump will spend his big war chest.
67:03He was sitting on nearly half a billion dollars.
67:06How candidates are rewriting their party's playbooks and how big business is throwing its money into the ring.
67:11There's obviously the AI super PAC, which are two sides there, so they're spending sometimes on different sides of races, sometimes on the same side of races.
67:20Listen to The Big Take on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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