2026 Midterm Election Odds & Trades to Make | Predicting Politics - Fri Oct 16
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Oct 16, 2026
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Fri, October 16, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00Lisa, tell them about our new show! We have a new podcast, it's called Don't Lie to Me.
0:06I'm Lexi Iwano, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
0:11And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
0:20Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
0:25Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:29The Action Network Podcast. No one, no one, is offering you action like this.
0:33It's a gambling experience of lifetime. It's my way of saying, I understand men like, I know what you are, I know what you need.
0:42This is where you belong. Welcome in to Predicting Politics presented by DraftKings.
0:46I'm your host, Mike Calabrese. Each episode, I'll be joined by various guests who can provide expertise about trading on DraftKings predict for the midterm elections.
0:54We'll be talking recent news and key events in the coming weeks that will shake these races and give you the smartest information for trading on prediction markets.
1:03Today, we're joined by Alex Keeney, the founder of Eventual News, streaming live every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, breaking down all the important news for prediction markets.
1:12Now, Alex, you've had Anthony DiBondo on your pod in the past, an Action Network alum.
1:17Any friend of Anthony is a friend of ours.
1:20So welcome to the show. Thanks for having me, Mike.
1:23Yeah, Anthony DiBondo is a real OG. Don't have enough good things to say about him.
1:29Well, we don't want to give him too much of a big head.
1:33He already has a little bit of that going for him over at the ringer, but he is very sharp when it comes to prediction markets.
1:41I talk to him regularly about these midterm elections.
1:44Let's just jump right into it because there's many market movers, you know, happening both, you know, races, polling, news stories.
1:51There's things that are shaping these races and providing potentially value for, you know, folks out there in the market.
1:57And one of the big things and drivers of this has been the big debate week that we just had.
2:04So let's start with a simple question before diving into some specifics and debates in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Maine to name a few.
2:12Do debates really matter in your eyes, especially with the election just weeks away?
2:16Well, in this cycle, they clearly don't. I mean, we had what did we have?
2:21We had debates in Texas, Maine, Georgia. Georgia. I'm stretching my imagination right now, but we had five sets of debates last week and the markets.
2:30The only debate that moved the market more than one cent was the Georgia governor's debate, which makes sense.
2:36It's a little bit more obscure of a race.
2:39I don't think people nationally are like deeply concerned about Keisha Lance bottoms versus Rick Jackson.
2:44Like these are not household names. They do not have any purview over whether or not Donald Trump will be impeached or something like that next year.
2:53So the only race that really moved within the markets off of a debate was like the one that was intensely local.
3:00So this cycle, like the debates have been absolute zeros, maybe another cycle presidential cycle where you get some really bad candidates
3:07who say like, yes, actually, you know, I did pay for sex with that hooker or I did actually disown my own son.
3:14Like we just haven't seen that this cycle. It's all about President Trump and the economy.
3:19Let's actually stick in the peach state. I'm glad that you brought that up.
3:24You know, the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate that you mentioned, Keisha Lance Bottoms took the debate stage on Monday.
3:30That part was normal. What wasn't was the fact that a Republican opponent, you know, Rick Jackson, wasn't there at all.
3:37And KLB basically said, you know, Rick Jackson being the first gubernatorial candidate not to take the stage in 32 years that
3:44provided her with an opportunity to just talk about her campaign.
3:48It was kind of a weird energy, obviously. And she continued on.
3:52She said that her candidate or her opponent would rather hide behind his billions than explain his record of making billions off the taxpayers of Georgia.
4:00But she was kind of shadow boxing. You know, there was nothing coming back at her.
4:05What do you make of this situation? And in general, when someone has a lead like Jackson, you know, has, is it
4:12worth it to pull out of debates to have kind of the optics that took place on Monday?
4:18Well, I mean, Rick Jackson and Keisha Lance bottoms did do a debate, you know, a week prior to that.
4:25So, look, it's beyond me to tell candidates and states that I don't fully understand what's, you know, the best path for them to succeed.
4:33But, you know, Georgia is a tough state to win as a Republican in the Senate.
4:38It's a tough state, I think, for the Democrats to win at the state level.
4:43So it's it seems like it's purple federally, but still pretty red at the state level.
4:48So, you know, I wish Keisha Lance bottoms and Rick Jackson the best.
4:52But, you know, their their their campaign is up to them.
4:56I don't think there's signal there. Let me just say that like flatly.
5:00Let's stick in Georgia and switch over to the Senate debate between John Ossoff and Mike Collins.
5:06Things were fiery. Oh, boy, that was fun. Yeah, that was a lot of fun.
5:10And Ossoff promised that he would not run for president in 2028.
5:14We'll see if he ends up walking that back in the future.
5:18But he fended off Collins multiple times attacking him as a socialist, kind of going to the tried and true playbook on the right.
5:26But it makes sense. Collins is lagging in the polls.
5:29He needs to take some aggressive swings to try to score some points.
5:33Do you think that paid off for him at all?
5:37And do you think we're going to see any movement in the market as we get closer to November 3rd?
5:43Well, let me actually send your users in a different direction here.
5:47So there's a great like if that then or maybe you could see it as an arb or maybe you could see
5:54it as a way to get more value out of your your trading belief in the state of Georgia.
6:00If Rick Jackson, the Republican becomes wins the election, becomes the next governor of Georgia.
6:05This is very bad for any intentionality that John Ossoff has to run for president in 2028.
6:11So like right now, all the wine moms in America and like all the like man bun left of center tech bros
6:18are sending their campaign contributions to John Ossoff. They love him.
6:21But if a Republican wins the governor's race this year, that means a Republican governor would get to appoint John Ossoff's replacement.
6:29So the pressure would on him would be like quite unbearable to run for president.
6:33And that's like a that's an expensive buyout on the markets right now to back John Ossoff to be president.
6:40So if you think that Rick Jackson is going to defeat Keisha Lance Bottoms, you can really multiply your earnings by betting
6:47against John Ossoff to run for president, because at the end of the day, those two events are going to be correlated.
6:54So your first question was, did this debate between what's his face, John Ossoff and Collins matter at the end of the day?
7:02Like, absolutely not. It was hilarious. It was entertaining.
7:05These two candidates hate each other in a way that's like very rare to see.
7:09They couldn't be more different. I would not watch it for any trading signal.
7:14I would only watch it for entertainment value. And I genuinely mean that.
7:18Speaking of two candidates that don't seem to like each other very much, let's move up to vacation land up north in Maine.
7:26One of the most hotly contested and tightest races in the country.
7:30Susan Collins attempting to win reelection over Troy Jackson right now, statistically, from a polling perspective, we're inside the margin of error.
7:37It's a toss up, although some prediction markets clearly favor Jackson.
7:40The latest debate had hecklers Jackson telling Collins to shut up when she insinuated that the heckler was with his team.
7:47A lot of theatrics. Does it add up to anything or is this just an entertainment value at this point in a race?
7:55That is anyone's guess. I mean, this is actually the most interesting and maybe least entertaining race this year.
8:01So, I mean, you have Maine. It's basically a state full of like old people and Tevas with like trust funds and
8:08canoes and then like a kind of blue collar constituency of loggers.
8:12And Susan Collins has, as everyone knows, this magic sauce that has kept this like a 60-40 race as far as the prediction markets are concerned.
8:20That's probably fair pricing. I'm actually about to get on a plane after this and go to Maine and try and figure
8:27out what the hell's going on there. You know, it's a small state and I think you can figure out what's going on there.
8:35But again, like the you have one of the most cunning politicians in America, which is Senator Susan Collins, the Republican.
8:42She is very old. She looks old. She sounds old.
8:45So, like, is she losing her edge? I think from a trading perspective, you have to factor that into your forecast and
8:52your trades that Susan Collins, despite her political acumen, is not the soldier she used to be.
8:58But Troy Jackson, man, like whenever I look at Troy Jackson speak, like what does the world know about him?
9:04They know that weird video where he's drinking boba tea like he's a 19-year-old college girl.
9:09Like this is not the candidate that Mainers were hoping for.
9:13It is not hard to find reporting that says that like ardent Maine Democrats think that they've backed a loser.
9:20He is he does not sparkle. He reminds me of tofu or at least his brain does.
9:25Like this is this is this is this is this is a fun race to trade.
9:30But like, good luck. I'm going to Maine today for a reason.
9:34Like, good luck. It's it's going to be a tough one.
9:38All right. From tofu brain to a hard question for you.
9:41If you're going up to Maine, how do you take your lobster roll?
9:46Are we talking cold or is it hot with drawn butter?
9:49This is an important distinction. I hate lobster rolls.
9:52I never want to eat another one in my life.
9:55All right. You may want to keep that one close to the vest when you head up there.
10:01All right. Let's go to another cold weather political climate.
10:04And that's Alaska. Another race where prediction markets have more conviction than the polls.
10:09Democrat Mary Peltola is approaching an 80 percent likelihood in the DraftKings prediction market.
10:13And the debate didn't seem to slow our momentum down.
10:17This is a race that has nearly flipped in the past 10 months.
10:21I think it's more interesting to discuss it in terms of the perceived blue wave across the country.
10:27Does those national trends explain why she's running away with this?
10:30Or is there something in terms of her campaign strategy that helps her build such a sizable lead?
10:36I mean, Alaska is like a unique state. I think we can all just like understand that in our gut.
10:43It's a very independent, like by registration, by modern standards.
10:46Even it is a very independent leaning state. You saw Lisa Murkowski win a write in campaign in Alaska during the sort of Tea Party era.
10:54So this is a state that produces weird things by normal standards.
10:58So to me, yes, it's absolutely believable that the market price of 75 cents for Mary Peltola to win is fair.
11:05Dan Sullivan would be a formidable challenger in another cycle.
11:08But there is a train coming. There is a big blue train coming.
11:12The Democrats are on it. The Republicans are standing on the tracks.
11:16And it's just very difficult to find instances where like trading the Republican underdog is the smartest play to make.
11:23Like look no further in the Alaska primary. Alaska has a jungle primary.
11:27So the Republicans and the Democrats run against each other and the best people move on.
11:32And then they have this thing called rank choice voting that Trump tweets mean things about.
11:37Now, Mary Peltola won that first ballot like decisively.
11:40So like, of course, she should be advantaged in the markets.
11:44The polls also support it. The fundraising supports it.
11:47The vibes support it. Like this is a fairly priced market.
11:50You know, I'm not buying more, but I like the trade.
11:54Now, we do have a batch of new polls to get into, namely what's going on in Texas.
12:00When you look at the Tallarico campaign, Marist has him plus two.
12:04Qantas, you know, has him down by one. Anything to note from those crosstabs?
12:08Any thoughts on, you know, the difficulty of polling and markets being able to really get their arms around this one?
12:15There's been a lot of noise in this. You know, was he in a mental hospital?
12:20Why was he off the campaign trail? Regardless of the reason, it seemed that perhaps it had opened the door for him
12:27to blow this lead that at least he had.
12:30Anything that you want to take or point to as it relates to this race in Texas?
12:36I will actually I will point towards one contrarian take that exists out there in the world of prediction markets that I think is worth listening to.
12:45So what James Tallarico and the Democrats have going for them is basically every credible poll since this race began has favored them.
12:52The fundraising is so lopsided. And specifically, you know, a month ago, you had the opportunity to wisely spot that Latino voters
12:59were going to revert to the Democrats this cycle.
13:02And we have seen that happen in Texas, especially down in the Rio Grande Valley, where Republicans were really anticipating and needing that support.
13:10The one contrarian case that that is valuable if your users want to take the other side of this trade is that
13:17they study their own data and they found that a majority, like 52 percent of their Texas based traders were betting on the Republican to win.
13:25Do with that what you will. But like there's that's certainly some anecdotal evidence that people in Texas are a little bit
13:33more skeptical of the blue wave than people outside of Texas.
13:36Like maybe that plays into the partisan registration advantage the Republicans have there.
13:40But I hear this when I like canvas my own sources in Texas, like they think it's Tallarico, but they don't have
13:47the conviction that the markets do, you know, that he'll win this in a walk.
13:52This next one comes from our producer, Gifford. He wants to present, you know, an option here in terms of a reverse correlation.
14:00I think this is interesting because the latest poll on Maine and Suffolk has Susan Collins trailing by two points.
14:06Could it be interesting to take Susan Collins to win Maine, but the Dems to take the Senate at a three to one payout?
14:14Sorry, it's early in the morning here. I'm trying to correlate that.
14:18So Susan Collins to win Maine. So that's like a 40 cent trade.
14:22And then the second leg of this is, is that the Dems take control of the Senate.
14:28Yeah, I mean, like the Dems have infinite paths, right?
14:31Like if they're, if they're within the margin of error in every competitive state, like I'm trying to think if there's even
14:38Iowa to me is the only state that I sort of favor Republicans in right now.
14:43I think Ashley Hinson is a very strong candidate for them and we can talk more or talk less about that.
14:50But, you know, they need three wins, right? And they have seemingly infinite opportunities.
14:55Like now there's talk about Republicans redeploying assets to Mississippi, you know, so like that's the kind of cycle we're in right now.
15:02So absolutely, like, you know, Susan Collins can win in Maine or what's his face?
15:07Troy Jackson can win in Maine. It might not really matter at the end of the day, depending on how strong the Democratic vote comes in.
15:15In terms of damage control, you just mentioned the state of Mississippi.
15:19Kansas has also gone from a lean Republican to a toss up, although at DraftKings in terms of the prediction markets, Roger Marshall is at 67 percent.
15:28Adam Hamilton at 41 percent. What do you think is closer to the truth?
15:33Do you think it is truly a toss up or do you think this is still well on hand for the Republicans?
15:40This is this is a real hot potato. So if you live in the world of prediction market sharps, which is like
15:47at eventual, we live in the world of prediction market sharps.
15:50Those are our contributors. Like that's our core audience.
15:53You know, we live among them. There's not a really strong consensus here.
15:58You know, oftentimes in political prediction markets, there's a pretty like the sharps have a perspective and it's sort of sharps versus retail.
16:05And then we count the votes and find out.
16:08I tend to think that, like, if you look at the way this election has unfolded from a pricing perspective, like it's
16:15just been a staircase down for Republicans. Every race looks harder and harder and harder for them to win.
16:21But in some of these places like Kansas, for example, I am very tempted to go in and start buying Roger Marshall,
16:28the Republican shares as they get down close to 60 cents.
16:32You know, every year there are elections that were embarrassed that we ever thought were competitive.
16:37And like Kansas and Iowa feel like they might be like if we see a Republican win in those states, like we're
16:44going to be laughing and ever thinking that these were competitive races.
16:48So, you know, don't I don't want anyone to like sell their houses or, you know, their kids social security numbers or anything to make these trades.
16:57But I do think the pricing on Roger Marshall is becoming very attractive.
17:01I do think the pricing on Republicans in places like Florida and South Carolina is starting to look attractive because the blue
17:08wave fear is just like so thick in the air right now.
17:12We have some more midterm adjacent news, and I kind of want to just present a bushel basket of all of these items.
17:20And you can either say that it's all useful information or perhaps it's all rubbish.
17:25You know, the inflation CPI report higher than expected.
17:27You have Kimberly Guilfoyle out as ambassador to Greece after bribery allegations.
17:31Katie Zachariah now in the White House as the press secretary struggling in her first appearance just from an optics perspective.
17:38The Fort Hood shooter, that live stream that was planned for his execution will no longer be live streamed.
17:44So there's lots of different elements just from a pure optics.
17:48It has not been a good run for the party in control and kind of trying to deflect and spin some of these instances.
17:56Is it just noise at this point or is there anything that you could point to, perhaps the economic numbers that kind
18:03of heaps a little bit more dirt on their grave leading up to November 3rd?
18:08I mean, I think at the start of this election cycle, traders were saying, well, the election is going to get bad
18:15because like core CPI will go up and Trump will do some stupid stuff.
18:19And like lo and behold, core CPI has gone up and Trump has done some stupid stuff.
18:25But it's all priced in at this point. You know, like at this point, the road is forked.
18:31And like if you want to go out there and make your first trade, you either need to be comfortable with, you
18:38know, hey, I'll make 10, 12 percent on my money in the next couple of weeks.
18:43And I'll just like safely bet on some obvious conclusions.
18:46Or you need to be OK with like going to ride with the dragons and like trade on some risky stuff that
18:53has like huge upside and just like be OK with the fact that it might not work out for you.
19:00I have two questions for you. The first is on polling.
19:03And we discussed this off air a bit in terms of the difficulty to really reach the true MAGA voter and to get a feel for it.
19:12And anyone who has been on the other side politically has a bit of PTSD with looking at polls leading up.
19:19And then all of a sudden there's a bit of a surge in Republican registered voters in terms of their turnout.
19:26And some of that leads back to the difficulty of getting these MAGA voters to participate in panels, particularly online panels, to
19:33sign up to use their real name. And all of a sudden you kind of have skewed data sets that perhaps some
19:40of these races are going to be closer. I haven't heard a political analyst or someone from the prediction market space say
19:47that the blue wave is a myth by any stretch.
19:50But do you think that polling could end up leading us to believe that this is going to be a runaway when
19:58in reality there's going to still be some key races that will be sweat out late into the night on November 3rd?
20:05Absolutely. I mean, I think I don't think anyone would be surprised to find out that Iowa, Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed.
20:11I think that honest, Democratic-leaning thinkers realize that he's going to underperform the Democratic ballot nationwide.
20:16There are certainly going to be close races. But I would just say if you are a rookie trader and you're thinking,
20:24can I be confident in buying these obvious things like Democrats to win the House at 90 cents?
20:29Or you can get slightly better pricing if you buy one tier deeper, like the obvious members of the House of Representatives
20:37that you can just Google and Politico will say, like the Republicans have given up on this race versus Greg Landsman.
20:43The Republicans have given up on Marionette Miller-Meeks in Iowa.
20:47Like you can feel confident paying those 85 to 90 cent prices because all of the qualitative indicators for the national scene reinforce the trend.
20:55It's like, you know, Ashley Hinson is like weeping in her bedroom because Donald Trump is coming to do rallies in Iowa
21:02and she's been trying to distance herself from Donald Trump.
21:05Republicans in places like Florida running away from Trump, like don't want anything to do with him.
21:11So like these are people that have a lot to do, like a lot to lose.
21:16They have a lot to lose from sort of like defying and nagging the president.
21:21And yet they are. So fundraising, like Q3 fundraising reports came out today.
21:25James Tallarico in Texas raised more money from his donors than every Republican in a competitive Senate seat combined.
21:31So like the vibes and the qualitative indicators are really reinforcing the available data.
21:36And like, of course, we're going to be surprised.
21:38Of course, there are trades that are going to look stupid that sound smart right now.
21:44But like it's just extremely difficult to find any reason to believe that the trend that polls are describing is fake.
21:50The Q3 financials that you just mentioned, I want to ask, do you believe that those advantages are already baked in?
21:57Or do you think you get an extra bump, you know, just by this being a news item to say, look how much money has been raised?
22:06This is kind of, you know, a way to view overall optimism about a candidate or capacity.
22:12Like how much can they actually do, even if they have a huge financial advantage in the last 10 days?
22:18Yeah, this is a super good question, because on some level, it's almost a rearward looking question with, you know, what is
22:25it, 17 or 18 days left until the election?
22:28You know, a lot of that money is probably already been spent, to be honest.
22:33I think that the place where you can get the best value with that information is if you go to, if you
22:40just search the DCCC, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the DCCC publishes the list of House seats that they want to attack.
22:47Like the Republicans do it when they're on the offensive, but like clearly they're on the defensive this year.
22:53And so like, if you go look at those races, like House races are not as efficient.
22:59It's like betting on the WNBA or college baseball or something like that.
23:03Like they're abstruse, they're boring, like the Sharps aren't spending as much time in them.
23:08You can get good pricing in there. So if you look at the DCCC's red to blue list, and then you start
23:15looking at like how the candidates in those races have done in their fundraising, which they just reported this week, you know,
23:22I think in the last 24 hours, you can find some gems in there.
23:27Like that's the place where you can probably find some high multiple trades that like the market hasn't figured out yet.
23:34And you can get a good sense of it by like how much fundraising they're doing, I think.
23:39I think that is actually a good indicator. I'll give one that I'm circling.
23:44Can I go there? So this is my favorite YOLO trade right now.
23:48Again, it's in the nature. It's in the nature of long shots and YOLO picks that they might look incredibly stupid, right?
23:55But like they also might look brilliant and visionary.
23:58So if this looks incredibly stupid, can you just like bless me and say, I forgive you, Alex?
24:04As we've said on other shows, you know, sometimes you think couch change, pizza money.
24:09It's important to have risk tolerance at the forefront.
24:12So I'll go ahead and bless you that this is, you know, advice for someone to go out in the market.
24:19We're looking for value and you're looking for something that is outsized value.
24:23You know, if John Mellencamp, someone gives you 10 million to one that he's going to win the Academy Award.
24:29That's great value. You should take it. All right.
24:32Okay. I like that. We're going to call it value trading.
24:36We're not going to call it YOLO trading here.
24:39The state of Indiana, Hoosier state, reliable red state.
24:42I think Obama won it in 2008, which sounds insane, but Democrats have been drawing dead there basically ever since.
24:48I think they've won like one or two statewide elections.
24:51There is a congresswoman in the suburbs of Indianapolis named Victoria Sparks.
24:55She is known to be the most dysfunctional, like.
24:58She's known to be maybe like the worst member of Congress.
25:02Like this is reported. Go Google it. Politico, whatever.
25:05Like can't hold on to staff. I can't find a lot of evidence that she really has a campaign staff.
25:11Like I've been going through her her FEC reports trying to see who she's paying money to.
25:17She's not really raising money. She has some wealth of her own.
25:21So she just lent herself $450,000 to kind of keep her campaign solvent.
25:25The DCCC is targeting this race. Again, like you have a bad candidate.
25:29You have minimal, if any, campaign infrastructure surrounding her.
25:32And you have like maybe a Dem plus 8 to 10 generic ballot.
25:36Like it guarantees that we're going to see some crazy stuff happen that people thought was impossible.
25:42And like losing a safe red district like this, I think is, is, you know, worth taking the flyer at 17 or
25:49so cents, which is the current price on most of the prediction market exchanges.
25:53You know, that the Republicans lose this seat. Before we hop over to the Hawkeye state, a quick word from DraftKings.
26:00Midterm elections are just around the corner and we partner with DraftKings so you can follow election markets from the biggest national
26:07storylines, like which party will control the House and Senate to gubernatorial races and the local elections getting the most attention.
26:14Election Day is coming up. And one of the things we're doing here at the Action Network is following how the markets are reacting as the races change.
26:23What's been particularly interesting is watching the percentages and price charts move as new polls come out, news breaks and we get
26:30closer to Election Day on Tuesday, November 3rd. With DraftKings, you can see what the market is saying, then make your own
26:38real money prediction on how you think things will play out.
26:41DraftKings has all the election excitement in select states.
26:44So be sure to check it out, follow the races and see how the markets are moving.
26:50DraftKings, the crown is yours. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
26:54Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast.
26:57It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwano.
27:00We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
27:04And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
27:09And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
27:13I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild.
27:16I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
27:23And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
27:31We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older.
27:34And a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree.
27:38Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight,
27:45but there's only so much fight I can fight.
27:48Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
27:52Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
27:56Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
28:00I don't really care. All right, it's time to talk Iowa.
28:04This is a state that Trump carried by 13 points in the 2024 election, but it's now looking as though it's going to be flipped blue.
28:12Democrat Rob Sand is running as a moderate Democrat for governor against Republican Zach Lane, and is currently trading at a whopping
28:1994% at DK to become the next governor of Iowa.
28:23But in the Senate, we got ourselves a tight race.
28:26Republican Ashley Hinson is trading at 63%. We mentioned her earlier in the show, hoping that she doesn't get any more support from the president.
28:34And the Democratic candidate, Josh Turek, is at 46%.
28:37How much of having a strong gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket could help pull Turek across the finish line?
28:44We mentioned earlier in the show a state like Alaska.
28:47There's a lot of independent thinkers. You have the potential, perhaps, for a higher percentage of split tickets.
28:53Do you see something similar materializing in Iowa? Yeah, I was actually just talking on our show at Eventual.
28:59Plug, go check out Eventual on YouTube, Eventual-News. That's also our Twitter, Eventual News.
29:04Anyway, so I was just talking to Chris Saliza.
29:07Do you remember him from when he was like a CNN politics guy?
29:11Absolutely, yeah. Yeah, I asked him this same question because it is the golden question in Iowa.
29:17And he sort of takes the classic view that Iowa is still a big split ticket voting state.
29:22And I think actually, like, these two candidates are – like, it's not hard to imagine why a voter, like an average
29:29voter in Iowa, would be inclined to vote for both Ashley Hinson, the Republican for Senate, and Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor.
29:37Like, they're both very attractive. Like, these are probably the two hottest people running for office this cycle in a contested state.
29:44Wine moms don't come at me. I know John Ossoff is attractive, too.
29:49And they're both, like, from the aristocracy. You know, Ashley Hinson went out to Los Angeles, went to USC, fight on, go
29:56Trojans, worked as a local TV anchor. Rob Sand went to Brown.
30:00So – but they both feel good. So I think that, like, an Iowan can look at either of these candidates and
30:07feel like they're representative of them and will, you know, serve them well.
30:11So I totally believe that with this sort of candidate, this combination of candidates that split ticket voting is reasonable.
30:17And actually, my trading strategy reflects that. The market is just not believing that Josh Turk is the guy, or at least
30:25to the extent that, like, the polls say he is.
30:28So I've actually been unwinding that position, and I'm looking to get into Ashley Hinson at this point to win the Senate,
30:35while at the same time holding Rob Sand to win the governor's race for the Democrats.
30:40One final question for you, and we really appreciate your time here on the program.
30:45As it relates to Iowa or any races across the country, how much do you tether yourself to historical data in terms
30:52of turnout, in terms of the parties that are winning, the comeback stories that have materialized?
30:57Or do you try to, you know, put into a vacuum, into a silo, we'll keep it Iowa farmer friendly here, and
31:05say, this is a special race, this is a special year, and some of the historical data just isn't all that useful?
31:12I think you have to, like, you have to situate what's happening now in context, right?
31:17And, like, that can help you early in the cycle, you know, if you sort of spot the trend, and you say,
31:24oh, this reminds me, like, the way the generic ballot is moving right now reminds me of 2006.
31:30By the way, I was wrong about that. So a lot of the sharps that we have on our platform, and eventual,
31:37a lot of them were saying, this is more like a 94-2006 wipeout year that's coming.
31:42And I thought, oh, you guys are, you're crazy.
31:45But they were right. So I'm not right about everything.
31:48But on election night, you get another chance to do this.
31:52And if you just pick a few states where you think you have some knowledge, you know, you grew up there, your
31:59family lives there, your first job was there for a couple years, you pick those couple states, you ask ChachiBT or Google,
32:06like, what are the most important counties? You put those counties into a spreadsheet.
32:11You start filling in the data. How many people voted there in 2018, 2006?
32:15You know, these were good years for Democrats. Let's throw in a good Republican year.
32:20How many people voted there in 24 when Trump overperformed?
32:23And you just have that staring at you in the face so that when returns start coming in on election night, you
32:30can say, wow, these numbers look kind of like the good year for the Democrats, the good year for the Republican, or the middle year.
32:39So, like, just set yourself up for success, right?
32:42Because, like, in that moment on election night, oh, my gosh, the prices, they're on a yo-yo.
32:47It's crazy. You suppress the desire to panic sell the entire time.
32:51This gives you the opportunity to say, well, I understand what's happening in the larger context, and I know the number to
32:58buy it, and I know the number to sell it.
33:01So do that. Do it. Do the work. It's not that hard.
33:05ChachiBT will do it for you now. That would be my advice.
33:09I know that we're closing in on election day, but hopefully we can get you back on the program.
33:15We really appreciate all of the insight that you provided here.
33:19If you aren't able to do so and people want to follow you, what's the best way for them to consume your
33:26insights and your content in the coming weeks? Yeah.
33:29Yeah. I would say follow our X feed at Eventual News.
33:32You can sign up for our newsletter at Eventual.news.
33:35But we are nine prediction market sharps making content.
33:38We think that it's interesting and entertaining and useful for those of you out there.
33:43So check it out. Check out Eventual. Thanks again, Alex.
33:46Thanks, Mike. As promised, we're bringing in more intellectual heft to today's episode.
33:51Tyler Jacobsma, a prediction market trader who specialized in politics for the past four years, joins our discussion with two specific Senate races in his crosshairs.
33:59Tyler, welcome to the show. Thank you, Michael. Glad to be here.
34:03So Prediction Pro just went live this week. One of the best features, at least from my vantage point, is the ability
34:10to see where the biggest trades and traders have their positions in their portfolio.
34:15Let's talk about two races and where some of that action is headed right now, Alaska and Texas in their Senate races.
34:22Talk us through the positioning of those two, if there's still value for folks who haven't got invested yet and where they should be going.
34:30Yeah, absolutely. Like you said, Alaska and Texas are two of the most pivotal Senate races of this cycle when determining like Senate control and stuff.
34:38And so Alaska is one I've been looking at closely.
34:42It's got Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan. Peltola, the Democrat.
34:45And I think she's a really strong candidate. She's at, I think, around 73% right now on prediction markets.
34:51And I like her for a few reasons. She's, she's native Alaskan.
34:55She's performed well in previous races. She won a seat in 2022.
34:59And Alaska, usually a pretty red state. And she, she outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024 by 10 points.
35:05And so I think now with an environment that's a lot more friendly to Democrats, I think that historical performance, you know,
35:12kind of shows that she's probably going to perform pretty well.
35:15And so another reason that I like her is because, yeah, like you said, there's tools out there where you can see
35:22some of the top traders positions and what side they're on.
35:26And I like to look at that similar to how you look at, you know, in sports betting, how much money is
35:33on one side and how many tickets and stuff.
35:36And so there's some really historically profitable traders with some large positions on Peltola in Alaska.
35:41There's, I think, a total of about four, four traders with $75,000 on Peltola.
35:46And so that, that's something I like to look at when I'm looking at these markets.
35:51I like to know, you know, who's positioned on each side and who my counterparty is and maybe if they see something
35:58I'm missing and, and things like that. So it doesn't always give you a full picture because, you know, they could have
36:05a position on another platform or they might be looking to take profit and things like that.
36:11But it's a great data point to look at when you're trading these markets.
36:15So, yeah, that's, that's an interesting position that I've been watching.
36:19I mean, I'm glad that you started with where the traders are on this particular race, because when you start looking at
36:26the polls, it tells a slightly different story. In the last four polls dating back to the end of September of the
36:33New York Times, Siena poll had Peltola up by seven points.
36:37Now, the latest coming from public policy polling that was released on October 15th, that lead had shrunk to a single point.
36:44Why do you think it's so difficult in the modern era?
36:47And by that, I mean, you know, the last we'll call it three to four election cycles.
36:53It seems that overall confidence in polling has been waning where the belief in prediction markets, their ability to react in real
37:00time, make them a better, you know, vantage point.
37:03And, you know, when people are trying to figure out exactly where something is in real time, folks seem to be flocking
37:10to that and kind of taking with a grain of salt.
37:14Some of these polls that can have wide margins of error.
37:17Do you believe that the polling is closer to the truth in Alaska or do you think the prediction markets have it pegged?
37:25I think the prediction markets are closer to the truth in Alaska.
37:29I think there's a lot of noise in polling.
37:32And that's what originally drew me to prediction markets was, you know, people speak with their wallets, you know.
37:38And so when you have a lot of money behind a certain position, that's, you know, really, I think, indicative of, you
37:45know, what the truth is, I guess. I think it's a lot of noise in the past, but I think it's a lot of noise in the past.
37:54Yeah. So, yeah, the prediction pro model is also is closer to the polls for Alaska, 59% for Pertola for prediction pro.
38:01So the prediction markets are a lot more bullish on Pertola.
38:05And there's a few other nuances for that, too.
38:08Like Alaska does have ranked choice voting. So that's a little bit different wrinkle that can affect maybe some of the projections and polls and stuff.
38:16But I think the prediction markets being so, so heavily skewed towards Pertola versus the polls, I think, is a great example
38:23of like where prediction markets can shine. And some of those really historically profitable traders on that side kind of is a good example of that.
38:32Let's close with the Senate race in Texas. It has been covered ad nauseum really from the beginning.
38:37But the last few weeks have added to the drama.
38:41And now we're in a situation where polling data is in conflict.
38:45They have some where Tellurico is trailing, others where he's up by a point or two, certainly within the margin of error.
38:52You also just in the last eight hours have Elon Musk donating $150 million to the fundraising cause for the GOP in
38:59Texas, with the majority of those funds likely earmarked for this particular race.
39:03Is there a vantage point, an entry point for anyone who does not have a stake in this race at this point?
39:10And beyond just the winner or loser outright in the election, do you think that the margin is of interest to traders?
39:17Yeah, Texas is, like you said, very, very much a popular one for traders.
39:22I think, in my view, I think there's still value on Tallarico here.
39:26What some of the positioning is saying is there's about 10 traders that I've been watching that have a total of around $150,000 on Tallarico.
39:34And these are traders who have a profit of millions trading on prediction markets.
39:39And so, you know, some of them have gotten it, you know, got in at quite a bit lower price than the current 63%.
39:46So, you know, you don't always know if they're looking to take profit soon or holding to resolution.
39:52But I think it's, you know, a fair value, I think, is still probably in the 70s for Tallarico.
39:58I think Paxton is just such a weak candidate with all of his scandals.
40:03You know, Tallarico has been able to maybe reach some voters with his more, like, faith-based, religious message that Democrats haven't been
40:10able to really reach in the past. So, yeah, I think there's value on Tallarico.
40:15I haven't looked a ton at the margin markets yet.
40:18But I think in the, let's see, like, the 0% to 3% range is probably where I would look for his margin of victory.
40:26I think it's still Texas. It's still, you know, they haven't elected a Democrat senator since 1988, I think.
40:32So, anything above a 3% margin would be really surprising to me.
40:36But I think Tallarico is a strong position here still at 63%.
40:40Now, Prediction Pro is a brand new free tool for people to use when trading on the midterms.
40:46If you could direct them to any functionality of it, what can people use today on Prediction Pro?
40:52Yeah, it's got all of the live odds. So, it's a great tool to quickly get a view on the differences in prices across platforms.
41:00So, even in, like, the battleground states and, like, the main senate races, it's just, you know, you don't have to click
41:07through a bunch of different screens and filter out.
41:10It's just right there in the midterms hub. You can find any odds movements and compare prices a lot more quickly than
41:17some of the other bigger platforms where there's so much going on.
41:21It's hard to find. So, it's just a quick and easy way to see updated odds.
41:26Thank you, Tyler. We're going to talk soon to you again before Election Day on November 3rd.
41:32This Monday, we're going to have a familiar face to Action Network.
41:35Folks, Kyle Hunter is going to join us to give tips for trading on midterm elections and some of the races that
41:43we've already touched on and others that are just heating up.
41:46He has his sharp eyes trained on some of these races.
41:50You're not going to want to miss it. BBOC tomorrow at 1030 a.m.
41:54Eastern. Don't miss Colin Wilson, Stucky, myself, and Duck as we run through our full college football card.
42:00See you there. And, as always, see you at the window.
42:03Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
42:11Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast.
42:15It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwani.
42:18We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
42:22And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
42:27And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
42:31Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
42:36Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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