NFL Touchdown Show | Week 7

Offered at plus 140 odds which the source considers too high; has three touchdowns in four games and has not had less than nine targets in any single game this season; lines up only 15% inline but 40% wide, making him the centerpiece of the Raiders offense in a high-scoring dome game; Kubiak using him fantastically.

Irving is priced at plus 120 to score and the source views him as a clear workhorse back. Sean Tucker is returning but Irving has been operating as the lead back for the last couple of weeks. Irving scored a goal line touchdown against Dallas and is getting significant playing time. With Baker Mayfield expected back this week, the offense should get into the red zone more frequently, supporting Irving's scoring chances.

Tate is priced at plus 330 to score and the source likes the odds despite a weak matchup. Over the last four weeks, Tate has received 9, 12, 5, and 7 targets, establishing himself as the number one receiver in the Browns offense. He scored his first career touchdown last week with 70 receiving yards. He's gotten a few red zone touches/targets this season and is a threat to score from most places on the field.

Bell is priced at plus 550 to score and the source views him as a talented rookie wide receiver with upside. The Dolphins drafted Bell in the third round despite some believing he was second-round or late first-round talent. He tore his ACL in mid-December last year, creating uncertainty about his rookie availability, but he's been healthier than expected and is now a full-time player. The source compares his upside to A.J. Brown and notes he scored a 60-70 yard touchdown a couple weeks ago that was called back on a penalty unrelated to the play.

Offered at plus 400 odds which the source considers excellent value; only has one touchdown on the season but is getting significant snap share every week due to Rams receiving room injuries (Adams out, Ferguson out); has 12-13 total targets with five in the red zone (three last week); at 6'7" he's a big target and will be the go-to guy in the red zone with Higby, Allen, and Parkinson running 12 and 13 personnel; scored eight touchdowns last year.

Watson is priced at plus 420 to score a rushing touchdown and the source believes the odds are far too high. Watson has 6 red zone rushing attempts with no touchdowns and 45 total rush attempts for nearly 200 rushing yards on the season. He leads the NFL in total scrambles and is the only quarterback with at least 15 scrambles who doesn't have a rushing touchdown yet this year, making him a strong value play.

London is priced at plus 140 to score and the source views this as undervalued. Six weeks into the season, London has no touchdowns despite a 25% target share (12th among all pass catchers), two end zone targets in week six, and 37% first read target share. All NFL players with at least 25% target share have at least two touchdowns this year, making London an outlier. The source values him closer to plus 110.

Isaac Nauta is the clear number three wide receiver for the Lions with Cleef Raymond now on the Bears, giving him zero competition for that slot. He is the number five target overall but got zero catches last week due to a blowout of the Cardinals that limited three-receiver sets. The source expects a back-and-forth shootout against the Packers, which should increase his playing time. Before last week's dud, he had 66-yard and 95-yard games with plenty of targets. The source is taking him at plus 425 odds to score a touchdown.

Likely is priced at plus 270 to score and the source bets him nearly every week. With J.J. McCarthy starting for the Giants, the offense is expected to simplify, making Likely and neighbors the primary read options. Likely plays over 90% of snaps with over 26% target share, making him a clear, massive option in the offense. The source compares his situation to Trey McBride's breakout second half last year, when McBride was the top guy but odds remained suppressed around plus 210.

Isaiah Likely is included as part of the source's favorite touchdown prop parlay for the week, which comes out to around 30-to-1 odds at DraftKings when combined with Pat Fryer and Tee Higgins.

Already displaced in the Jets receiving corps; the source notes he had a 6% route run rate and has been completely wiped out by Omar Cooper Jr.'s emergence. Described as 'already cooked' with minimal remaining role.

Mechie is priced at 11-to-1 to score and the source values him closer to plus 800. With Xavier Leggett on IR, Mechie has become the wide receiver three and slot guy, while Bryson Tremaine's snap share decreased with Jalen Coker's return. Despite limited snaps, Mechie's underlying metrics look strong; he scored a touchdown a few weeks ago and Bryce Young has looked his way in the red zone before.

Watkins is priced at 6-to-1 to score his first career touchdown and the source views this as too high. With Mike Evans out and the 49ers' wide receiver room decimated (Brandon Cooks, Jacob Cowling, Jordan Watkins), Watkins has emerged as a key option. In week six, he ran the most routes of any 49er (85% route participation, career-high 76% snap share) despite only one target. The source expects him to score against the Falcons given his high field time in an efficient offense.

Vikings wide receiver at plus 180 touchdown odds against the Colts. Sauce Gardner likely won't play for Indianapolis, improving Jefferson's matchup. Despite Colts being tough on the outside, the source expects Jefferson to remain a primary target given the offensive line situation.

Jefferson is the go-to receiver for Kyler Murray and one of the best wide receivers in the league; offered at plus 180 odds. The Vikings defense has been tough on the outside but bad over the middle, though Murray's offensive line issues force him to rely heavily on Jefferson. With a game total of 41.5, the plus 180 represents value; if the total were closer to 50, Jefferson would likely be priced at plus 120 to plus 130.

Treadwell is offered at plus 700 odds despite strong recent volume: six, eight, five targets over the last three weeks; played 93% of snaps last week (more than any other receiver); has three red zone targets in the last three weeks and is running deep routes. The Colts blitz at a massive rate and Treadwell is one of their deep threats; if the Colts pick up the blitz, Jones gets another half-second to throw and Treadwell can break free for a long gain. Plus 700 is absurd for his role and volume in the offense.

Andrews is priced at plus 240 to score and the source bets him nearly every week (still recovering from a drop two weeks ago). Andrews leads the Ravens in end zone targets with either Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley. The Bengals defense is bottom-five in targets and catches allowed to tight ends (29th in defensive DVOA vs. tight ends). If Huntley plays, 10 of his 14 career passing touchdowns have gone to tight ends, making Andrews a strong play regardless of quarterback.

The source identifies Mark Andrews as probably his favorite tight end touchdown scorer of the week, indicating a strong matchup setup for a touchdown prop play.

Marvin Harrison is officially out of the picture for the Cardinals, which elevates Michael Wilson to the clear wide receiver one role in the offense.

Matthew Golden is playing too well to be priced at plus 150 for a touchdown against the Lions; the source is taking him at plus 155. Golden is in a year-to-breakout trajectory with a 25% or higher target rate in every game, reaching 33% last week. He nearly had one or two more touchdowns last week but dropped the ball, which the source views as a buy-low correction opportunity. Jordan Love is expected to air it out heavily due to Josh Jacobs' return not fixing the run game and offensive line issues.

Top five in almost every receiver metric including separation scores; looks awesome in the Packers offense with Jordan Love playing a big part in his success; first-round receiver pick finally delivering for Green Bay.

Wilson is offered at plus 250 odds and is the clear wide receiver one for Arizona now that Marvin Harrison is officially out. Arizona throws a lot regardless of opponent and tests opposing secondaries. Wilson leads the team with six end zone targets, trails McBride only slightly in targets per route run, ran routes on 85% of dropbacks in week six with two end zone targets, and the touchdowns are coming. The Broncos secondary will likely be without Patrick Surtain, making plus 250 an attractive price.

First-round rookie wide receiver at plus 380 odds; the source cashed a receiving yards ladder on him last week with a 13.5-yard line that he cleared by over 100 yards. Described as a very talented receiver who was instrumental in Fernando Mendoza's Heisman-winning season at Indiana. Expected to be the number two target behind Garrett Wilson even if Aidy Mitchell returns from injury, making him a safe play with upside.

Freiermuth is back on the betting board at plus 280 after missing time with a calf injury last week; he's cleared from the injury report this week and expected to be at full health. The source notes he's an excellent pass-catching tight end in the red zone and also serves as a ball carrier in the Steelers' tush push play, giving him multiple scoring pathways.

RJ Harvey is the primary pass-catching back over JK Dobbins in the Broncos offense, running 12–14 routes per game with a 10-target game already this season; he has four red zone targets (second on the team), scored his first touchdown of the year in week six, and scored 12 touchdowns last year (five via pass). The source is taking him at plus 260 odds to score against the Cardinals, expecting the Broncos to continue using him in different ways near the goal line.

Tank Dell is returning for the first time in approximately two years and is priced at plus 850 to score. The source notes Dell was really good when he was playing consistently and has a decent touchdown history. While he's not expected to play significant snaps, the source sees value in the long odds, speculating that even if the game gets out of hand, the Texans might give Dell extra snaps in the end zone for his morale and development.

Higgins is priced at plus 160 and the source calls this his favorite touchdown prop of the week. While Jamar Chase gets more betting attention, Higgins' underlying metrics are nearly identical to Chase's: he's running more routes than Chase and has a higher targets per route run. Against the Ravens' zone-heavy defense (top-five rates in high safety looks), Higgins has a higher target rate and target share versus zone coverage. The source expects the Ravens to shade coverage toward Chase, leaving Higgins in one-on-one matchups he can win.

Higgins is the source's favorite touchdown prop scorer of the week at plus 150 odds at DraftKings. The source identifies a favorable matchup against the Ravens defense, which plays a lot of zone and two-high safety coverage; Higgins tends to have a higher target rate and target share versus zone and two-high looks, positioning him to win one-on-one matchups on the outside against the Ravens secondary.

Hanging on for limited role in Jets receiving corps; will be benched once Aidy Mitchell returns from injury. Currently competing with Isaiah Williams for scraps behind Omar Cooper Jr. and Garrett Wilson.

McBride is available at plus 180 odds at some sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon, though most other books have him around plus 130. The source expects the plus 180 price to disappear quickly once the prop is discussed publicly, so the source is passing on McBride in favor of Michael Wilson instead.

Shough is priced at plus 430 to score a touchdown and the source believes his rushing upside is undervalued, especially around the goal line now that Taysom Hill is gone. Shough was dealing with broken bones in his left hand in weeks 4-5, limiting his rushing attempts, but appears healthier now. Last week he scored a one-yard rushing touchdown using a tush push variant with C.J. Donaldson pushing him in, and the source expects this play to continue.