2026 Midterm Election Odds & Trades to Make | Predicting Politics - Mon Oct 19
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Oct 19, 2026
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Mon, October 19, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00Lisa, tell them about our new show! We have a new podcast, it's called Don't Lie to Me.
0:06I'm Lexi Iwanu, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
0:11And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
0:19Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
0:24Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:28Back to School is here, and you know what that means.
0:32Dirty Rush is on. As campuses come back to life and Rush Week kicks into high gear, we're taking you inside the
0:39mysterious journey of a sorority girl, from pledging to initiation and just about everything in between.
0:44Join me, Gia Giudice, Daisy Kent, and Jen Fessler.
0:47Dirty Rush takes you deep inside Greek life. Let's get dirty.
0:50Listen to Dirty Rush on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:55In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author Patra Mathers and her husband Michael mailed letters to dozens of friends
1:02and family members to let them know they had died by suicide.
1:06Dear honeys, this is goodbye. By the time you get this letter, both Patra and I will be dead.
1:12Next stop, Wonderland. Why did they do it? And what did it do to the people they left behind?
1:18Listen to Death of an Artist on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:24Hey everybody, it's me, Debbie Kuma Bell. This season on my podcast, Who's With Me?
1:29I speak with Bruce Lee's daughter, Brandon Lee's sister, and my friend, Shannon Lee.
1:33Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that.
1:38You're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life.
1:41Listen to Who's With Me? with Debbie Kuma Bell on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:48Is there an epidemic against literature? More specifically, Black literature.
1:51I'm Jacquees Peace Thomas, and on this season of the Black Lit Podcast, we're outside asking why.
1:57They don't want a whole bunch of little Ella Bakers, Malcolm X's, and Martin Luther King's on the ground.
2:03And when you look at a lot of different cultures, they're like, you need to know where you came from.
2:09And considering this is Black Reading Month, the only real question is, what are you reading next?
2:14Listen to Black Lit from the Black Effect Podcast Network on our iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:21The Action Network Podcast. No one, no one, is offering you action like this.
2:26It's the gambling experience of lifetime. It's my way of saying, I understand men like you.
2:31I know what you are, I know what you need.
2:34This is where you belong. Hello and welcome into Predicting Politics, presented by DraftKings.
2:39I'm your host, Mike Calabrese. Each episode, we bring in guests to provide expertise about trading on DraftKings Predict for the midterm elections.
2:46We'll talk recent news, key events, and latest intel on the ground to give you the best information possible for trading on prediction markets.
2:53Today, we're joined by Kyle Hunter. He's been playing political markets all the way back to 2008.
2:59Kyle, welcome to the program. It's fun to be talking about the midterms.
3:03Usually, I'm talking about sports, and I love that as well, but nice for a little changeup.
3:08It's nice to start with kind of a holistic view, a 40,000-foot view, so to speak, of how you attack these markets.
3:15Because just like in sports, money management, avoiding some parlays or where the math doesn't actually line up with the value, having
3:22that core foundational intel and understanding how these markets work are a really great place to start.
3:28So if you could walk us through a little bit how you view playing these election cycles in the first place.
3:35So I think these elections are so different than sports, but I think the opportunities there are significant.
3:40So many people bet what they want to bet or trade what they want to trade.
3:45And if you have a really strong feel for something and you're not able to disconnect from that, you could have a
3:52really hard time trading in these markets. At the same time, if you're able to stay neutral or you just want to
3:59make money, I think there's really good opportunities here.
4:02I think a lot of times people want to take the big underdog, which can actually give value for the favorite.
4:09I don't want to lay big prices when it comes to MLB or something like that because one pitcher could dominate a game.
4:16But this isn't the same. There's not a ball that bounces weird like it does in football.
4:22So it's different, but it's similar. You know, we love diving into the stats and analytics for college football at the same way.
4:29I love diving into counties and how they swing from one election to the next when it comes to elections.
4:35You brought up the idea of kind of following along with the polls.
4:39And I think what's interesting for our audience is that really in the last two election cycles, you've seen a furthering of
4:46the distance between polling data, which is kind of traditional where you have lag time.
4:51You have people out in the field collecting the information.
4:54It can take weeks at a time presenting that data vis-a-vis the prediction markets, which are being adjusted in real time.
5:01How do you marry those two information sources together to go ahead and put together the best possible predictions and to be
5:08invested in the way that you think is most profitable?
5:11I mean, I think you have to realize that not all polls are created equal and try to figure out who you
5:18think has done a better job, even if it's particular states or even the national trends.
5:23But the other thing is, as I said, people love to take that underdog shot where somebody's going to be betting, say,
5:30the Republican to win California or something, and you just know that's not going to happen.
5:36You can take – and people say, well, I don't want to take a huge favor.
5:41I don't want to have my money locked up.
5:43Well, you could take it a week before the election at 93% or something like that.
5:49That's a really quick profit right there. So if you're willing to do things like that, I think you can make money.
5:56Polling has gotten more tricky, I think, Mike. I mean, you know, the amount of people who actually answer polls has definitely gone down.
6:03I mean, I've talked to a few pollsters who are like, man, it's really, really difficult to get people to answer.
6:10You know, now we're having to text, email. You can't just call a landline like you did 20 years ago.
6:16I mean, this is far different than it used to be.
6:20And then you kind of wait by what the last election was.
6:24But does the electorate look similar this time or does it not?
6:27You know, so that's kind of some predictions even being made by the pollsters.
6:32For the first time when people are opening up a prediction market like DraftKings predict, and they're seeing both yes and no
6:39on candidates, it's not as simple as a money line perhaps between two teams where you're picking the Jaguars or the Chiefs.
6:46There's not necessarily a way to say no to the Jaguars or no to the Chiefs.
6:51Just explain that in layman's terms for our audience.
6:54I mean, you can go and you can bet yes that candidate A is going to win, or you can bet no,
7:01which is essentially the same wager of the other person to win.
7:05The important thing is when it comes to this, they're not always equal.
7:09So, you know, that would be one of my biggest tips when you start out is it's super basic.
7:15But, you know, Mike, I've seen times where, you know, yes is 70% and no on the same wager is 65%.
7:22And, you know, I don't have to tell you this, but in the long run, that's going to make a big, big difference.
7:29It's kind of like somebody who's, you know, laying seven instead of laying six and a half constantly in college football.
7:36It's just going to make a big, big difference.
7:38So price shopping is really important. And yes and no are both options.
7:43And you definitely need to look for both. Midterm elections are just around the corner.
7:47And we've partnered with DraftKings, where you can follow election markets from the biggest national storylines.
7:52One of the things we've been doing here at the Action Network is following how the markets are reacting as the races change day to day.
8:01And what's been particularly interesting is watching the percentages and price charts move as new polls come out, news breaks, and we
8:08get closer to election day on Tuesday, November 3rd.
8:11With DraftKings, you can see what the market is saying, then make your own real money prediction on how you think things will play out.
8:18DraftKings has all the election excitement in select states.
8:21So be sure to check it out, follow the races, and see how the markets are moving.
8:27DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, Kyle, the way I view this is kind of the blue wave special, yes or no.
8:34And it could be something that we just discussed.
8:37Are you taking a yes for the Democrats to take the House and the Senate or a no for the Republicans to win the House and the Senate?
8:46There is a differential in price. Where do you think the value lies and how do you think members of our audience should be thinking about this?
8:54Because it's eating up column inches. Every podcast is talking about it.
8:58The blue wave has been something that's been percolating really for the entire calendar year.
9:03But as we stand, you know, less than two weeks out, you start to view this through the lens of the likelihood of it happening.
9:11And at what point is the cutoff in terms of value and doesn't make sense to get invested?
9:17So I think, you know, we're close enough to the election now to have a pretty good feel for what's going on here.
9:24Mike, you know this, but everybody who's tuned in, the party in power is usually not popular in the midterm.
9:30I mean, everybody always wants some kind of change.
9:33It's just how strong is that want for change?
9:36And I mean, a recent Wall Street Journal poll said 27% of people think America is on the right track.
9:4368% think on the wrong track. So you think of it this way, fairly or unfairly, I'm not here to judge that.
9:50And we're just trying to talk about value here.
9:52The GOP is going to take a lot of heat for that because President, Senate, House right now, GOP, high gas prices, clearly a big negative.
10:01The Iran war has been very unpopular. If you have this many Americans saying things are going off in the wrong track,
10:08the party is in power, it's really going to take a hit.
10:11I mean, we've seen that every election cycle, even when people like Obama, George W.
10:16Bush was relatively popular when it came to the midterms.
10:19Those guys were having a really tough time even in the midterm, even when they were popular themselves.
10:25So now you have Trump being unpopular, the party in power is unpopular.
10:29I think the Republicans are playing defense in a big way, Mike.
10:33I mean, you look at maybe the Democrats won't win the Senate seats in Kansas, South Carolina, etc.
10:39But the fact that the GOP is spending so much time and money there is really a bad sign for the GOP.
10:46I mean, you can't be playing defense in South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska.
10:50It just shows you what kind of trouble you're in.
10:53And if they're actually playing defense there, say they squeak out a win of 2% or something for the GOP, they're in big trouble in the House.
11:01I think the House is almost a given at this point.
11:05The House was always an easier path for Democrats.
11:08I think the blue wave is going to be real when it comes to the House.
11:13The Senate, I mean, favors the Democrats now on the markets.
11:16You know, DraftKings has them favored, and I understand why.
11:20The GOP certainly still has a chance there. But if you take Republicans to not sweep, so we're going against Republicans having
11:27House and Senate both, it could be a split and you win here.
11:31I think a fair price here is 97% or 98%.
11:34We're getting some fills here at 88%, 89%. I think that's definitely too low.
11:38This is one I feel strongly about. Like I said, you know, you have to be willing to lay the juice, something
11:45you don't do as much in sports betting. But I think in elections, I mean, we're talking about, you know, two or three weeks.
11:53This is going to be decided. So you're not locking your money up in some super long-term CD.
11:59This is some pretty good return on investment here.
12:02And I think I feel pretty strongly about the value here on Republicans to not sweep the House and the Senate.
12:08We talked about some of the foundational information, the polling, where the real-time markets, prediction markets are currently at.
12:14But then the third element of that can be the financial disclosures.
12:18How much is being raised? How much is being spent?
12:21Now, we're so deep in this election cycle that at this point, those financial advantages, I would imagine, are baked in both to polling and the prediction markets.
12:30But how often do you find yourself earlier, let's go back into the spring, really digging through some of those financials to
12:37look at the viability of these candidates, particularly those that are priced more in that long-shot category?
12:43I think that's probably the key to it is looking for the long-shots that are clearly getting a lot of small donors.
12:50I mean, there's got to be some kind of movement there.
12:53One person can have a lot of money or spend their own money or something like that, but that matters less to
13:00me than somebody who's getting a bunch of these grassroots donors.
13:04It's like, well, maybe this person that's sitting at 8% or 10% in the polls now for being the candidate for the
13:11Democrats or Republicans, maybe they're worth a shot. I mean, like you said, now it's so deep into it.
13:17Now we have all these PACs that are sending money to certain states and things like that.
13:22And, you know, I do kind of wonder when you get this late in the process, if that money matters as much.
13:29I think most people have made up their mind.
13:32I mean, here in Ohio, so many ads, every single ad is, you know, Sherrod Brown, this, John Husted, this, Vivek, Amy Acton.
13:39I mean, even my kids are like, man, can we turn this off?
13:43I'm like, it's just a commercial. I mean, I'm waiting for the game to come back on.
13:49But I think at this point, the money probably has dwindling returns as far as what it's going to actually change.
13:56But I do think you're right that early in the process, you look back in April, May, when the primaries are occurring,
14:03I think that's your chance to find the long shot that might be worth it.
14:07And that's something to remember when it comes to two years from now when we're finding who the candidates will be for president.
14:15Because, you know, I don't know that it will be decided super early and you can kind of be looking for where
14:22the small donors are really jumping on. Now, you just mentioned the Buckeye State hotly contested Senate race there in Ohio between
14:29Republican appointee John Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown.
14:32Now, prediction markets are moving towards Brown was around 60 percent a week ago.
14:36That's now up to 66. But just like everything with this election cycle, there's a serious differential between the prediction markets and the polls.
14:44Active vote, their latest poll released over the weekend, showed Husted nursing a narrow lead 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent, clearly within the margin of error.
14:52But Bowling Green's UGov poll from 10 days prior had Brown opening up a six point lead.
14:58So what is your thought process on this race being so invested in it and being there on the ground?
15:04And how do you put those thoughts into actions, either for an outright winner in terms of the value that's still on
15:11the board or perhaps specifying the margin of victory as well?
15:15Well, I think we need to be honest that candidate quality really does matter a lot.
15:20There's times in recent years where candidate quality being so poor kind of flipped key Senate seats, maybe even control of the Senate.
15:27I do live in Ohio. It's unquestionable that Sherrod Brown is more popular than the average Democrat in the state.
15:33No doubt about that. He's a very good candidate.
15:36If you're Democrat, you want to win the state of Ohio, which, Mike, I still think it leans conservative in the long run.
15:43It's gone more that way in presidential cycles. But let's look at how Sherrod Brown performed in recent elections.
15:50Yes, he lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024. But look at the margin.
15:54Trump beat Harris by 11.1 percent. Brown lost to Moreno by 3.6 percent.
15:58I mean, you don't have to be a math major to figure out that that's a pretty major overperformance.
16:04And there were a lot of Trump and Brown voters in 2024.
16:08So was that a one off or not? No, it really wasn't.
16:11In 2012, Obama defeated Romney by 2.98 percent in Ohio.
16:15Brown beat Mandel, the Republican candidate, by exactly six percent.
16:18So he was three percent overperforming there. And in the recent one, almost eight percent overperformer.
16:23Now, Republicans are clearly less popular than they were in 2024 in Ohio.
16:27Trump's job approval in Ohio is about 36 percent.
16:30I think Trump would have a difficult time winning Ohio if the election were today in a presidential race.
16:36He might win it, but he'd be really close.
16:39Brown was in a really tough national environment in 2024, and he almost won against Bernie Moreno.
16:44So now that the Democrats have the wind at their back, I think it looks a little different.
16:50One other note, too. Brown's been really closely tying Husted to the data center issue, and that's highly unpopular.
16:56You know this. You know, I think that that's been sticking pretty well.
17:00And the other thing I look at here is sometimes the governor or Senate race, like the other person can kind of
17:07pull the Senate person along or the governor can pull them along.
17:11It could be flipped because if you have such a strong candidate, not too many people will split tickets.
17:17I think in this case, Vivek Ramswami isn't very popular.
17:20In most polls, he's less popular than John Husted.
17:23So I don't think that Vivek helps Husted here.
17:26The price is cheaper on Sherrod Brown. And I see DraftKings right now has Sherrod Brown, yes, at 64%.
17:32I think this should be north of 70%. So I like the value here on Sherrod Brown.
17:37I think he's been a over-performer time and time again.
17:41I think he'll probably over-perform once again. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
17:46Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast.
17:49It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
17:51We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
17:55And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
18:01And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
18:04I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild.
18:07I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
18:14And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
18:22We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older.
18:25And a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree.
18:29Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight,
18:36but there's only so much fight I can fight.
18:39Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
18:42Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
18:46Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:51I don't really care. Whether you're stepping up to the starting line of a marathon or just trying to take the first
18:58step toward a big, scary goal, the conversation in your head is usually the same.
19:02Do I have what it takes? I'm Emily Abadi, and on Hurdle with Emily Abadi, we dive into the grit, vulnerability, and mindset that fuels our greatest comebacks.
19:11I talk to elite athletes, Olympic champions, industry changemakers, and everyday runners about how they face self-doubt, redefine success, and keep moving forward when life gets heavy.
19:20I just love to say I never know who's watching.
19:23So you want to make sure you're you through and through, and you just stay true to who you are.
19:29Yeah, your path might change because different things come on your path to disrupt it, but it's just putting you on a
19:36new path, and the skills, you have to have faith at the skills that you've learned and developed over time are going to continue to bring you success.
19:45When the world is burning and crashing around you, will you still say fight for your dream?
19:51Will you still say it's possible? Will you still believe you're a good person?
19:55Can you still see the brighter side of tomorrow?
19:58It's motivation, real talk, and practical wisdom for life on and off the run.
20:03Listen to Hurdle with Emily Abadi on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:08Hi, it's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season, we've got some awesome guests ready to dole out advice.
20:14Guests like Portia Williams. I like the wave of adult-onset lesbianism that has taken a hold.
20:19No, she's right. I have a girlfriend of mine who I think is really becoming attracted to me that I need to nip in the bud.
20:28Oh, please nip it. Nip it because now that I have people know, I feel like a lot of my friends are giving me an extra eye.
20:36Adam Scott. How does that make you feel? That I look like Tom Cruise?
20:41First of all, do you think? Do you think?
20:44Do you think? Do you think? Do you? I'm sorry.
20:47I started the sentence first. I think I started this interview.
20:50Sarah Bareilles. I think I have always been a little bit afraid of grief.
20:55Of course, I wish I had my friends again, but I almost wouldn't change the experience of the loss in my life
21:02because it has changed me so much for the better.
21:05Tiffany Haddish, Anna Faris, Keri Russell, Kristen Johnston, and more.
21:08Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
21:13The WNBA playoffs are here, and while the games will be spread across seven different channels and streaming services, you only need
21:20one podcast to keep up to date on all the action.
21:24Good Game with Sarah Spain is the only daily podcast for all your WNBA needs.
21:29Be the smartest fan at the sports bar by learning all the W stories, stakes, stats, and stars, and hear from top
21:36players and coaches about their pregame routines, the pressure of playoff basketball, and the moments that define legacies.
21:41Can we actually compete for a championship? And I think the answer is yes.
21:46You know, the best part about Stubbuds is parents have come up to me, thank you, you helped my relationship with my daughter so much.
21:54It goes a lot further than you would think.
21:57Every time you underestimate a UConn player, it comes at your own peril.
22:01You know, when you talk about women's sports, it's like Prego spaghetti sauce.
22:05It's in there. You know that commercial? Like, it's in there.
22:08You name it, it's in there. Want to know what's really going on in the WNBA?
22:13We got you. Listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
22:20A decade ago, the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil.
22:25So we met with a lot of larger farmers, went from Bahia to Tocatines to Mato Grosso.
22:31And he brought a team of executives. They were going to help the country get in on a gold rush.
22:37Carbon and its derivatives are going to be really the next great commodity that the globe's going to trade.
22:43But back home in Iowa, trouble was brewing. If you live in Iowa, your land, your water, and your voice could all
22:50be at risk thanks to a man named Bruce Rastetter.
22:53Now people are questioning if his climate solutions have anything to do with climate at all.
22:58You gotta give Bruce and the guys credit. They're Republicans.
23:01They don't give a s*** of money. On this season of Drilled, Carbon Cowboys, the story of how the ethanol kingpin of
23:08Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil, and what it tells us about the limits of technology and markets to solve the climate crisis.
23:16Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
23:21Prediction Pro is now live. Head on over to predictionpro.com today to check out our brand new subscription offering.
23:27You can compare prices across prediction markets to make sure you're getting the best price, and use Prediction Pro's free tools to
23:34help you find the best edges possible, including access to our model that will help show you where the trading edges exist
23:41in the market, plus daily expert analysis and analyst trading tracking.
23:44All right, let's finish up here in the Lone Star State.
23:48Very interesting races for both the Senate and the governor's mansion.
23:51Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, is seeking a fourth term in office.
23:55He's attempting to fend off Gina Hinojosa. Polling favors Abbott in a close race, although there is one major poll in the
24:02last two weeks, siding with Hinojosa by two points.
24:05She hasn't cracked the 30-cent mark, though, in most prediction markets.
24:08Where do you come down on this race, and do you believe the power of the incumbency is just too difficult for the Democrats to overcome?
24:17I mean, I think Abbott is quite a bit more popular than Paxton, the Senate candidate there.
24:22And Texas is one of those spots where I think Abbott does deserve to be favored.
24:27I think he's relatively popular. And if you look at Texas, Texas has a lot more Republicans than Democrats.
24:33So you really need the independents to vote pretty strongly for you if you're the Democrat.
24:38And, Mike, I think that Abbott is a pretty decent candidate.
24:42On the other side, I don't think Paxton is a good candidate.
24:46So I think this is one where we could see more split tickets than normal.
24:50And I think the markets have a pretty good handle on who should be favored on each side.
24:56I think the thing that's so interesting to me about Texas is, you know, if Trump hadn't backed Paxton and we had
25:03Cornyn running here, I think there's a good chance that Cornyn and Abbott would probably be getting a similar percentage.
25:09And as it is, it's going to be split.
25:12And there's going to be some people, if Paxton loses here, that are pretty upset over the fact that, you know, hey,
25:19Republicans blew their chance here by nominating Paxton, who really, in my opinion, carries a lot of baggage and struggles to motivate crowds.
25:27Cornyn, not a guy that sides with Trump all the time, but certainly would side with him a lot more than the Democrats would.
25:34So I think this is really unique handicap, though, Mike, because I feel like Democrats are getting super confident about Texas and
25:41they really haven't won anything in a long time in Texas.
25:45So that can be tricky. At the same time, Republicans have been really confident about Texas because like, well, we never lose in Texas.
25:52I mean, you know what? We're not going to lose Texas.
25:56Look at the recent. It's like, I don't know.
25:59I mean, this is one of those rare cases where both sides seem overconfident to me.
26:04And this is not something that I've placed a trade on at this point.
26:08I think it might be better for live trading election night.
26:12So I love to live trade election night. That's where most of my money has been won long term.
26:18But I think that when we look at both of these, the Senate and governor races, what you want to look at is the Hispanic vote.
26:26I mean, the Hispanic vote really swung toward Trump in 2024, made Texas not close at all.
26:32We've heard Democrats talk about blue Texas or Blexus, as they say for a long time, like this would change the electoral
26:39map significantly because Texas is such a big state.
26:41And the question is, you know, are they going to be able to pick up that key win that they thought, you
26:48know, O'Rourke would get against Cruz or somebody like that in the recent past?
26:53And they couldn't quite get to that point. You know, they've been close multiple times.
26:58They've never gotten over the edge. So I think one thing I wanted to point out is that I would look at
27:05specific counties where these things have swung significantly. Two counties that really stand out to me, Hidalgo County, Trump won at 51-48
27:12over Harris in 2024 after losing it by 17% to Biden in 2020.
27:16Webb County, Trump won it by 2% when he lost by 23% in 2020.
27:20So I think you get some early returns from those counties on election night.
27:25And you see how much the swing has been from 2024 to now to see if both Democratic, the governor and Senate have a chance here.
27:33I mean, it's going to need to be a big swing.
27:37I think it will be a pretty big swing.
27:39And, you know, in this case also, Mike, I mean, some people always talk about the percentages and say, well, you know,
27:46what percentage of the vote did candidate A get?
27:49What did candidate B get? But it's also not just the percentages.
27:53It's about how much the raw vote that you get out from your counties is.
27:58Democrats are going to run up the margin in Travis County, Austin.
28:02Republicans need big turnout in those rural Texas counties.
28:05So I think some people kind of make it too easy by saying, well, you know, it was this percent before and this percent this time.
28:13Well, yeah, but what if, you know, there's 25% more people voting in the Democratic counties or 25% more people voting in the Republican counties?
28:21My guess would be that Abbott will win the governor race here.
28:25I think Tal Rico is a deserving favorite in the Senate.
28:28The question, Mike, is how many people are willing to split tickets?
28:32I don't know the answer to this. I do think that one thing that most people are overlooking is that the libertarian
28:39candidate here in the Senate is polling two, two and a half percent consistently.
28:43That's absolutely pulling more from the Republican impacts than it would from Tal Rico.
28:48And I think this is a case where the winner here could finish with less than 50%.
28:53We might see a 49.1 to 48.1, something like that with, you know, 2.7% for the libertarian.
28:59And that's something that, you know, some of these polls are starting to show people.
29:03But when I see people, you know, predicting what it's going to be, they'll say 51, 49, 50 and a half to 49 and a half.
29:12But, you know, that 2 or 2 and a half percent could make a big difference in who wins that Senate race.
29:19In terms of your own conviction on this particular race, we had our own mini version of an October surprise with Tal Rico being sidelined on the campaign.
29:28And while it didn't come to fruition that the conspiracy theories were correct, that he was at a mental facility, he was
29:35still not out on the campaign trail, something that he effectively hammered Paxton on for really for months, not being out there
29:42and being among the people and having that energy and vigor.
29:45It clearly hurt him a bit in the polls.
29:48One of the most recent surveys from the University of Houston has him up by just two points.
29:54How much of that do you believe is just the gut reaction by the market saying that this is bringing this race closer?
30:01Or do you think the fundamentals of his candidacy are still strong enough to say he's going to be able to get over this hump?
30:09And perhaps in your opinion, it could be a play that has value all the way through election night as early returns start to come through.
30:17So I think the question is, which is true?
30:20Is it that he wasn't out there and he wasn't seen?
30:24So there was going to be some kind of a dip?
30:27Because, you know, the other side was seen and he wasn't.
30:31If that's the case, then it's probably just going to bounce back up to where it was.
30:36I mean, I think then the polling will go back to where it was.
30:40We still have a couple of weeks and that could happen.
30:44The other question is, are the undecideds like really Republican leaning?
30:48Because that's also possible as well. You know, if you have a decent amount of people that weren't exactly sure, you know,
30:55some people might say, well, it's Republicans quote unquote coming home, you know, because at the end they don't really like their
31:02candidate, but they don't want to vote for the other candidate.
31:05So I think we'll know this by the trends in polls here in the next week to 10 days.
31:11Does he bounce back up? And we see that 2% average that he has as a lead now versus what it was for.
31:18Or does it go back up to 3% or 4%?
31:22If that goes down to 1% or 1.5%, then I would think that the markets will start flipping toward the Republican because of the general trend.
31:30Kyle, thank you so much for joining us. You can follow Kyle in the Action app at KyleHunterPicks.
31:36He's a fantastic follow for college hoops and college football as well.
31:39Later this week, we're going to have Harry Crane on to talk about polls versus prediction markets.
31:45The BBOC Sixth Gear episode where Duck and I handle all the group of six football comes out early morning on Wednesday.
31:52We'll see you there. And as always, best of luck with all your bets.
31:56We'll see you at the window. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
32:00If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
32:06Someone once said everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
32:10I did. Mike Tyson. Oh, well, Mike Tyson and Boost are here to tell you that your mobile plan is punching you
32:17in the mouth with prices that can knock you out.
32:20That's a low blow. Totally. But you can do something about it.
32:24You have to punch back. No, Mike. You gotta switch to Boost with a plan that's $25 a month forever.
32:31Oh, that's a great plan. Maybe you can do both.
32:34Boost Mobile, what's your plan? Lisa, tell them about our new show.
32:38We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me.
32:41I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
32:46And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
32:51And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
32:55Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
33:00Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:04Back to School is here, and you know what that means.
33:07Dirty Rush is on. As campuses come back to life and Rush Week kicks into high gear, we're taking you inside the
33:14mysterious journey of a sorority girl, from pledging to initiation and just about everything in between.
33:19Join me, Gia Giudice, Daisy Kent, and Jen Fessler.
33:22Dirty Rush takes you deep inside Greek life. Let's get dirty.
33:26Listen to Dirty Rush on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:31In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author, Patra Mathers and her husband, Michael, mailed letters to dozens of friends
33:38and family members to let them know they had died by suicide.
33:42Dear honeys, this is goodbye. By the time you get this letter, both Petra and I will be dead.
33:48Next stop, Wonderland. Why did they do it? And what did it do to the people they left behind?
33:54Listen to Death of an Artist on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:59Hey everybody, it's me, Debbie Quimabelle. This season of my podcast, Who's With Me?, I speak with Bruce Lee's daughter, Brandon Lee's sister, and my friend, Shannon Lee.
34:08Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that.
34:13That you're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life.
34:17Listen to Who's With Me with Debbie Quimabelle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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