2026 Midterm Election Odds & Trades to Make | Predicting Politics - Mon Oct 12
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Oct 12, 2026
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Mon, October 12, 2026
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0:52Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast.
0:56It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
1:00We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
1:04And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
1:10And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
1:14Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
1:19Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:24I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast.
1:29The true crime comedy podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
1:33Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them.
1:38What? I could talk to you for an hour.
1:41You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job.
1:46And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
1:50Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:56The miles change how you move, but more importantly, they change how you show up for your life.
2:03I'm Emily Abadi. On the Hurdle with Emily Abadi podcast, I sit down with elite athletes, record holders, coaches, and everyday runners
2:11to unpack the mindset behind pushing through when things get tough.
2:14Because the discipline, grace, and grit you build out there on the pavement, that's what helps you show up as your best self everywhere else.
2:23I just love to say I never know who's watching.
2:27So you want to make sure you're you, through and through, and you just stay true to who you are.
2:34Listen to Hurdle with Emily Abadi on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:40On recent episodes of The Questlove Show, I chatted with JoJo about her music and WALO267 about his story and everything in between.
2:48Don't invite me to karaoke. I'm going to make it weird.
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3:02Check out my conversation with JoJo, WALO267, and more on The Questlove Show.
3:07Listen to The Questlove Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
3:13Peace. The Action Network Podcast. No one, no one, is offering you action like this.
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3:27This is where you belong. Welcome into Predicting Politics presented by DraftKings.
3:31I'm your host, Mike Calabrese. Each episode, I'm going to be joined by a host of special guests who can provide expertise
3:39about trading on DraftKings predict for the midterm elections.
3:42We'll be talking recent news, key events in the coming weeks that are going to shape and shake up these markets while
3:50trying to give you the smartest information for trading on predicting markets in general.
3:55Today, we're joined by Jaron Zhou, former head of politics at Calci.
3:59His sub-stack Capital Markets has a ton of really smart information on the midterms.
4:04Jaron, welcome to the program. Great to be on.
4:07Thanks for having me. Let's start with the week's biggest headlines.
4:11And I mean, I'm just going to pick this one from random.
4:15I don't know. James Tallarico's disappearance and reappearance. Let's get into this on the campaign trail.
4:21Was it a bad reaction to eating meat? Was he in a mental hospital in Ohio?
4:27Or did he simply have the flu? People wanted proof of life either way, and they got it as he returned to the campaign trail.
4:36But this mini controversy, what was interesting is you can question, did it really change anything?
4:41Because prediction markets were largely unmoved. And the Trafalgar Group released a poll over the weekend indicating that Tallarico remains in the lead by three points.
4:50So what are you seeing in Texas, Jaron? And how do you weigh the rumor mill against cold hard data?
4:57Yeah, I think this is fascinating because it shows a case where pollsters and traditional handicappers have a very hard time factoring
5:05something like this in on the campaign trail in a very timely, fast way, whereas the markets do react.
5:12And I think looking back at it, given the sort of recent debunking from the Lindner Center of Hope in Ohio and
5:20as well as Tallarico himself after he reappeared, that said that he was not in Ohio getting some sort of mental health treatment.
5:28And the markets sort of rebounded to where they were before this kind of broke.
5:33But during that couple of days where a lot of Republicans or people in the media kind of were speculating about his
5:41whereabouts and noting his absence, you know, Ken Paxton brought it up at a rally and had the crowd, you know, chant like, where is Tallarico?
5:50That actually did impact the markets. You know, his chances went from somewhere in the mid to high 60s to around 60 percent, which is significant.
5:59It means it brought it back from a leaning Tallarico race to almost a toss up.
6:05And I think there's a couple of reasons for this.
6:08First, he was absent from the trail for, you know, almost two weeks, around 13 days.
6:14And in the kind of peak of campaign season, that can matter in terms of your presence, especially since he had previously,
6:22I think, gone after Paxton for not campaigning as much or hiding from voters, etc.
6:27And secondly, even if he wasn't at a mental health hospital, just the fact that he had been gone, even with like
6:35a flu for so long, did raise questions about how much longer he would be out.
6:40Right. If he had been gone for, I think, another week, you would have seen a lot more movement potentially in the markets, maybe in the polls.
6:50Because for a while, this didn't really come up to voters attention until maybe like day nine or 10 when people started really talking about it.
6:59Previously, there was, you know, issues with Paxton and different things around like his personal dealings, his term as attorney general, the
7:07whole issue with the convicted pedophile and how he handled that.
7:11That was dominating the headlines. And I think Republicans in this race, especially really needed some sort of foothold to get back
7:19on their feet after just, you know, strings of unfavorable polls and nothing they could really use to attack Tallarico on.
7:26So in some cases, you know, this is kind of almost a trying to start like a snowball effect, trying to get some momentum going.
7:35And I think as soon as Tallarico's campaign became aware that this was becoming a larger issue that the right wing media
7:43ecosystem was picking up on, I think they were smart to, you know, nip it in the bud, have them appear quickly
7:50at like the Austin Music Festival, kind of showing, as you said, proof of life, going with Casey Musgraves, that kind of stuff.
7:58All right, let's head on down to South Carolina to check in on their Senate race.
8:04We just had a fiery debate between Democrat Annie Andrews and incumbent Republican Senator Darlene Graham.
8:10But the power of the incumbency needs to be couched in the fact that she replaced her brother, Lindsey Graham, following his
8:17death in July, edging out Ralph Norman in a special runoff primary.
8:22So let's start there. Her limited experience and a potential blue wave seem to align with this being a tight race.
8:29Polls have reflected that. Yet prediction markets are incredibly bullish on Senator Graham.
8:34How do you view this race with just three weeks left before Election Day?
8:39So I think you're right that her incumbency is not as strong as an elected incumbent.
8:44I think we've seen time and time again that the boost for an appointed incumbent is, you know, very slight, if there is any at all, actually.
8:54She also didn't necessarily help her case out back, you know, during the debate in the primary, where she was asked about national security.
9:02And she essentially said, you know, that was not that's not my thing, which is a very candid answer, but maybe not the best one in voters eyes.
9:12So. So the so the GOP nominee is, you know, I guess of.
9:17Limited experience politically. And I think Annie Andrews, the Democrat, has been running a more shrewd campaign, recognizing that she is in a red state.
9:26She recently had a ad where she was talking directly to the camera about how she did not support like gender surgeries for for minors.
9:34And so trying to get, I think, ahead of one of the most potentially powerful issues that Trump used, certainly in 2024.
9:42And that could still play in a red state like South Carolina.
9:46The polls have shown Graham narrowly ahead. I think they ran from her being up by one point to, I think, four points in a recent poll.
9:56But the markets still give her around like an 80 percent chance of winning the election.
10:02And I think this is actually where you see some divergence consistently with markets and polls is there are some states that are traditionally red or blue.
10:11And sometimes there can be a close race. But unless you see consistent evidence of, you know, the candidate who is from
10:19the party that's usually not winning the state ahead, like in Texas, there is some sort of natural elasticity.
10:25I think that the markets price in where if there's undecided voters or, you know, it's tied.
10:31It tends to favor the party that the state usually votes with.
10:36And I think that's what's happening in this case.
10:39This also happened about last year in the New Jersey governor race.
10:43There are some polls that showed Republican nominee Jack Ciudarelli, you know, tied or very close to Mikey Sherrill.
10:50But the markets actually never dipped below giving her around like a three and four chance of winning that governor's race.
10:57And ultimately, she won by a lot larger margin than what was expected.
11:02So there is, you know, national trends, the blue wave.
11:05But there's also state sort of DNA, as they say.
11:09And South Carolina is a very red state with low elasticity in the electorate.
11:14I would say in the past two to three election cycles, there's been pushback from the public when it comes to polling and the inexact nature of polling.
11:24And then on top of that, you're bringing into the fold prediction markets that are not only evolving, becoming more dynamic.
11:31There's also competition in the market so that we're seeing this recalibration of people's expectations, balancing both prediction markets and polling.
11:39And one thing that's really interesting, that's a bit of a new phenomenon, or at least perhaps for our audience, is this enthusiasm gap.
11:47Reuters released a poll on Thursday showing 48 percent of Kamala Harris voters from the 2024 election are, quote unquote, very enthusiastic
11:55about voting versus 30 percent of the Republican counterparts who voted for Trump in 2024.
12:00And this enthusiasm gap can also bleed into polling accuracy, with it becoming increasingly difficult to secure Republican voters for online panels, for instance.
12:09How important is this enthusiasm gap in your eyes as it relates to both turnout and the final results on November 3rd?
12:16I think it's absolutely critical. And that's actually one of the biggest open questions of the cycle, is you see a huge gap in enthusiasm, right?
12:25There are some states like Minnesota where if you look at, you know, all voters, it might be Democratic plus four.
12:33And then you look at likely voters or super enthusiastic voters, and it's Democratic plus 15.
12:38And that's, you know, massive. And I think the question of, you know, is there non-response bias, right?
12:45Are not just Republicans, but specifically Trump supporting Republicans, just harder to reach?
12:49And I think that is to a large degree true.
12:53But in this case, when Trump is not on the ballot, it's also a question of, you know, maybe they are actually
13:01are, you know, demoralized or tuned out. And they don't respond to polls, but they also don't turn out.
13:07And we've seen, you know, polling errors sort of shrink or be less in favor of Republicans when Trump is not on the ballot.
13:16So, you know, 2018, 2022, these are cases where I think you saw some of that low propensity voter that Trump can
13:24really get to the polls, sort of hold back a little bit when he was not there.
13:30And I think that plays into the Republicans' tactic of having Trump go to these red states, right?
13:36There was a big question of, you know, how much would Trump hurt or help on the campaign trail?
13:43And also, why is he going to Oklahoma and Kansas?
13:46And I think it's because there's a lot, they recognize there's a lot of Republican voters or Trump voters who supported him,
13:54who maybe are not happy or not enthusiastic. And they're hoping that he can disproportionately gin up turnout among those voters.
14:01So, yes, enthusiasm is in every midterm election sort of the name of the game.
14:07Let's turn from enthusiasm on a nationwide level to lasering into a particular state race.
14:12Let's look at the Michigan Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, who've been locked in arguably one of
14:20the more contentious and heavily polled races in the entire country.
14:24And this polling even extended to their recent debate.
14:27Wood TV, a Grand Rapids television station, reported that 76% of its respondents believe that El-Sayed won the debate.
14:33The Detroit Free Press had similar findings with a 74-26 split.
14:37Despite this, there's been tightening in the prediction market between the two candidates.
14:42Do you feel as though Rogers has nowhere to go but up?
14:46And perhaps that's, you know, accounts for a bit of this bump?
14:50Or do you think there's something contributing to him slightly closing the gap on El-Sayed post-debate?
14:56I think the, I'm not sure how large of an impact the debate had on this race.
15:02Historically, actually, what we've seen is unless a debate is like truly catastrophic for a candidate, especially at the, you know, below
15:10the presidential level, they don't tend to have a long sustained impact in terms of what voters think.
15:16And even in 2022, when you had a debate between, you know, Dr.
15:21Oz and John Fetterman, where it was almost universally agreed that John Fetterman did very poorly, he still ended up winning that race.
15:29So I think it's a couple of things. First, there's been some polling that I've shown at Close.
15:35And this race has consistently been in the margin of error.
15:39I would actually argue that it's sort of El-Sayed that has over time trended upwards, if you look at the averages, whereas
15:47Mike Rogers had sort of stayed a little bit stagnant somewhere in the mid-40s.
15:52It's entirely plausible that either candidate could win this race.
15:55What I will say is it's there's sort of two different, you know, forces that are conflicting each other.
16:02One is obviously the national environment and the fact that Michigan, even in previous years, has had a sort of distinct blue tilt in these midterm elections.
16:12Right. In 2018, that's kind of expected. But even in 2022, Gretchen Whitmer won by more than she did in 2018.
16:19And this time, again, there's a very strong candidate on the governor's side, Jocelyn Benson, the secretary of state, who's favored to
16:27win by, I think, a lot more than El-Sayed is.
16:30Then, of course, there's a candidate themselves. I think El-Sayed is one of the, you know, few truly progressive candidates that Democrats
16:38have put up in a swing state, especially in a statewide race over the past years.
16:44Generally, I think the Democratic primary electorate has been decent about nominating establishment or moderate candidates in these states.
16:50But El-Sayed won very narrowly over Haley Stevens in the primary.
16:54So it's kind of a test of how his brand of politics plays in the Midwest.
17:00He's sort of, you know, distanced himself from the DSA, from Hassan Piker, and some of the, you know, ultra left elements
17:08of the party, and sort of running more as a economic populist.
17:12Another thing is, you know, I think in a state like Michigan, his opponent, Mike Rogers, has run before and came very close to winning.
17:21So there is, I think, you know, a sort of higher ceiling of name recognition for Mike Rogers.
17:27So I think both of those are contributing to, you know, the closeness of the race.
17:33I think there's a lot of undecided voters who may make up their minds late.
17:38And that could cut, you know, for El-Sayed or against him, depending on what happens in the last few weeks.
17:45When you talk about the gamesmanship of a campaign and the chessboard, adding a former president like President Obama to the mix,
17:53he's at least, you know, on the record saying that he's going to campaign soon for Abdul.
17:59Is that a plus, a minus? Does it really not make a huge difference in the wash?
18:05How do your numbers kind of weigh something like that?
18:08Because obviously there's the approval rating for the president when he's in office.
18:13They still keep some polling data on overall approval rating post-presidency.
18:17But some of that data can be a little bit old, a little bit stale.
18:22So how do you view Obama's entrance here? So I think Obama is probably the most popular political figure in America nowadays, right?
18:30Most people are, even if they're popular, they're just even.
18:34Obama's actually has like plus five, plus 10, that approval.
18:37And he carried Michigan twice, both, you know, with pretty sizable margins.
18:42So I think he is someone who's very, who is a boon to Democrats.
18:46I, you know, there's a case where it doesn't make a ton of impact.
18:51But I think his appearance kind of helps legitimize El-Sayed and almost gives him more establishment credential.
18:57I think in the primary El-Sayed also had more challenges with black voters in Michigan and in Detroit and other cities.
19:05These voters are the ones who went for Haley Stevens.
19:08And I think, you know, recognizing that some of them may just stay home or not turn out in the general election.
19:16I think that's a demographic that Obama especially, you know, is revered in and can really help, you know, tap into and
19:24get more folks mobilized and to the polls on behalf of El-Sayed.
19:28Let's close out with a race that's perhaps more interesting in terms of the final margin than predicting the winner outright.
19:35And that's Minnesota Senate race between Peggy Flanagan and Michelle Tafoya.
19:39Tafoya recently broke from Trump in an ad affirming her pro-choice stance and stating plainly that if she disagrees with the president,
19:47she won't blindly follow along by party lines. Is it too late in your opinion for her to appeal to moderates or
19:55could this late sea change for her help her close the gap in your estimation?
20:00Well, I certainly think she could have done this earlier.
20:04Right. And I will say, I think Republicans in some of these states like Minnesota where Trump lost all three times are
20:11in a bit of a bind because if you run as a, you know, Trumpy Republican, it's very challenging to win given
20:19that he himself did not win it. And, you know, the environment has shifted against you.
20:25However, if you are seen as anti-Trump or too opposed to Trump, you risk sort of depressing your conservative base or getting
20:33them to vote for, you know, a third party or a libertarian or something like that.
20:38And I think that's, we've seen that with some Republican nominees in the past.
20:43I think in 2024, Sam Brown is running in Nevada and he, you know, tried to distance himself from Trump a little
20:51bit and he ended up losing because so many Trump voters pulled, you know, none of the above, which Nevada has as an option.
20:59So it's a tricky line to thread. I think, you know, it's a tough year for any Republican in Minnesota.
21:07The one thing they have, I think, going for them is that, you know, Tim Walls is not particularly popular.
21:14And I think the scandal around the, you know, daycares in Minneapolis has really damaged people's perception of Democratic governance in the state.
21:22And I think that's why you see close Senate polls, which is a bit unexpected, as well as close governor polls, sort
21:29of reflecting that, you know, this is not a nationwide even blue wave.
21:34It's hitting unevenly and it's actually hitting less so in states that have, you know, Democratic governors or haven't governed by Democrats for a long time.
21:43Before we look ahead to next week, a word from DraftKings.
21:47Midterm elections are just around the corner and we partner with DraftKings so you can follow election markets from the biggest national
21:55storylines, like which party will control the House and Senate, to gubernatorial races and the local elections getting the most attention.
22:02Election Day is coming up and one of the things we're doing here at the Action Network is following how the markets are reacting as the races change.
22:12What's been particularly interesting is watching the percentages and price charts move as new polls come out, news breaks, and we get
22:20closer to election day on Tuesday, November 3rd. With DraftKings, you can see what the market is saying, then make your own
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22:46Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast.
22:49It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
22:52We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
22:56And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
23:02And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
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26:27Hey, what's up? I'm Tony Gonzalez. And I'm October Gonzalez.
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28:18All right, it's time to look around the corner, see what is coming next week and could have an impact both on the polls and also the markets.
28:27It's going to be a heavy debate week. The Iowa Senate is one of those.
28:33A Republican. Ashley Hinson advocates her Democratic state challenger, Josh Turek, in their second debate.
28:38In Maine, incumbent U.S. Senator Susan Collins against her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, in their third debate.
28:44And then in Alaska, Dan Sullivan, who is currently in the position against Mary Peltola, a Democrat.
28:50They will be facing off in a debate as well.
28:54Then we can also see a batch of polls to be expected, you know, from a release perspective.
29:00The New York Times-Siena poll in particular should be coming out soon.
29:04The last round there was released on October 3rd.
29:07And then finally, another big piece of information that could have an impact, at least as it relates to the Republicans' chances
29:15of holding off this so-called blue wave. The next U.S.
29:19Consumer Price Index and core CPI report from the U.S.
29:22Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for Wednesday, October 15th.
29:26An early morning bust out your coffee at 8.30 a.m.
29:29Eastern time when that one hits. Do any of these stand above the rest for you?
29:35Any particular events or piece of data that you'd like to add to this mix?
29:40Yeah, I think of those above, the debates, again, are fascinating.
29:44And I'll be watching them, certainly. As you said, you know, there's already been debates in Iowa and in Maine, right?
29:51This is the third debate between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson.
29:55There have been some, I suppose, viral moments from those debates I see on social media.
30:01But they haven't necessarily moved the markets, in part because it's tricky to get a sense of what voters actually care about.
30:09I remember in 2020 there was a debate between, you know, then-Senator Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic nominee, over the price of corn and soybeans.
30:18And, like the Democrat Greenfield was able to pinpoint the price of, like, a bushel of corn or something like that.
30:26And when the moderator asked Joni Ernst for, you know, the other crop, soybeans or whatever it was, she couldn't answer it.
30:33And at the time, watchers thought, okay, this is, like, a huge moment for Democrats in Iowa.
30:39Like, it's clear that, you know, Joni's out of touch.
30:43And she still ended up winning the race by six points.
30:47So debate moments, I think, again, might matter. In rare cases, they do.
30:51But in general, unless there's some spectacular, you know, implosion, I don't expect to see a ton of movement from those.
30:59Now, I think the New York Times-Siena poll will be very instructive because it's kind of a longitudinal poll at this point.
31:07And you're seeing, you know, changes over time. And there was a huge sentiment shift captured in all the polling, but in
31:14New York Times-Siena as well, after Labor Day, where, you know, I wasn't sure if it was voters sort of tuning in
31:22to the midterm elections all of a sudden post-Labor Day.
31:26Or, you know, if it was something about Trump's approval or, you know, gas prices.
31:31But the Republican, you know, their polling in the generic ballot worsened substantially.
31:36I think Democrats surged, like, two to three points in, you know, two weeks there.
31:41And in different states across the country, their prospects worsened.
31:44And that is what led to the Senate being, like, 50-50 to, you know, 60-40 now in favor of Democrats.
31:51So it'll be interesting to see after all this money has been spent by Republicans because they have, you know, a huge money advantage across the board.
32:01If that has moved the needle at all, right?
32:04If they're seeing slightly improved polling, meaning that perhaps the shift away from them has stagnated a little bit.
32:11Or if it's, you know, the same or it continues to get worse.
32:15I think it's a good pulse check on sort of not just where things stand, but the sort of trend and direction.
32:23And you can extrapolate that perhaps to Election Day if you, you know, take that trend.
32:29I think with, you know, inflation, gas prices being the top issue, that's obviously going to be a huge focus, why people focus on the CPI announcement.
32:38I do wonder, you know, to what degree people's perceptions of the economy and inflation are sort of baked in at this point.
32:46There's certainly late decided voters who could, you know, based on a better CPI report or a worse CPI report, decide to
32:54vote for one party or the other. But I think most voters aren't necessarily following these drops, right?
33:01They're experiencing inflation through grocery stores and through gas prices.
33:04And if they do see gas prices go down at the pump, then that does help Republicans.
33:10But it could be a little, a case of too little too late, you know, with President Trump announcing the deal with Putin.
33:18Now, you know, a drop in gas prices could be sort of attacked as well as cutting a deal with, you know, the Russian dictator.
33:27So all of these three things have potential impacts.
33:30But it's difficult to sort of isolate their effect on the markets from all the other things that are happening.
33:37And one more thing that I'll add is, you know, I actually think what might move the markets the most is new early voting numbers.
33:46So some, you know, states have already started early voting.
33:50And in the next week, you're going to have two states that I think people should really keep an eye on.
33:57One is Texas. They start early voting in about a week.
34:01And historically, you know, the majority of votes are cast early.
34:05So you're going to get a very good read on the sort of enthusiasm of, you know, Democrats versus Republicans in urban versus rural areas.
34:14And you're already seeing some of that, you know, Democratic enthusiasm that you see in the polling show up in states like
34:21Virginia, where the congressional districts that Democrats usually win have higher turnout markedly than the very heavily Republican congressional districts.
34:28I also think in North Carolina, it's a rare state that, you know, when you register to vote, you register by party as well.
34:37So they actually can break down early voting turnout by party.
34:41And currently, it's all male voting, absentee votes that have been cast.
34:45It's usually a very small percentage of the electorate, around 5%.
34:49But on Thursday, in-person early voting begins. And in past presidential elections, that has been around, you know, 50 to 70% of all votes cast.
34:58And so when you have that much vote coming in, and by party, it makes for a lot better comparison, and a
35:05lot better read on, you know, whether the enthusiasm gap, as you said earlier, was real, or simply a, you know, conjuring
35:13of some polling error that is systemic. Let's close with a gubernatorial race in the Peach State, our analysis presented by DraftKings.
35:21And Georgia is fascinating. I mean, we've discussed it, hit it multiple points, the sentiment that there's a blue wave coming.
35:28The Senate candidate is projected to win by 10 plus points.
35:32But Democratic Keisha Lance Bottoms is trading below 50% after once being a solid favorite.
35:38Two months ago, she was running away with this race in both polling and prediction markets.
35:43And now Republican Rick Jackson appears to be in the driver's seat as of recording.
35:48If you add your choice between Georgia's historical preference between, you know, the two major parties, Jackson's financial backing and establishment positioning,
35:56or KLB's lack of momentum, what do you think will be the determining factor come election day in November?
36:03Yeah, I think a bit of context is really helpful for Georgia.
36:07It is, you know, at this point, a purple state.
36:11But historically, it's favored Republican governors like more establishment.
36:14They might not be like, you know, moderate in like the Phil Scott way, right in Vermont.
36:20But they are very mainstream Republicans, like reasonable Republicans, like Nathan Deal, and then, you know, currently Brian Kemp, who both are popular.
36:28And in some ways, Rick Jackson kind of continues that, you know, pro-business country club style of governance that Georgia has experienced in the past.
36:37His big advantages, as I just said, are, you know, one, he is a, you know, healthcare sort of executive and billionaire.
36:45And he spent, you know, over $100 million, I think, so far in the primary and the general election.
36:51If you recall, he was not actually the endorsed candidate of President Trump.
36:56That actually was Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones. And Jackson, you know, beat him, which is not an easy thing to do.
37:03So that actually, I think, also helps him because he can make the case that he's not beholden to Trump.
37:10He can make the case that, you know, he is not Trumpy or MAGA as much as, you know, Democrats try to
37:18tie him to Trump because Trump didn't endorse him.
37:21I also think on the Democratic side, Keisha Lance Bottoms was probably not Democrats, you know, top choice for a governor.
37:29They actually had, I think, from people who've launched, you know, exploratory committees and donor conversations to other potential nominees.
37:36They were looking at Congresswoman Lucy McBath from the northern suburbs.
37:40She, ironically, is the one who actually succeeded in winning the district that John Ossoff lost in the special election, even though,
37:47you know, he now is heavily favored to win and is now a presidential contender, potentially.
37:53And there was Jason Carter, who is, I believe, the grandson of, you know, former president Jimmy Carter.
37:59He ran for governor in 2014 against Nathan Deal, lost, but it was not like a resounding loss.
38:06And he actually performed well given the national environment.
38:09And so there was thought that, you know, he could make a comeback bid for governor.
38:15But they both actually had family members with sort of health issues that they, you know, prioritized over their sort of political runs.
38:23So Keisha Lance Bottoms is the former mayor of Atlanta.
38:26I think he was also considered for VP, actually, under President Biden or candidate Biden who's running.
38:32She only ran for that office once, and it was an extremely close election.
38:37And I think, you know, there have been reports about how she ran the office, her political operations, perhaps a bit more
38:45disorganized than, you know, Democrats would like to have.
38:48I think her biggest issue is, you know, fundraising, right?
38:52She, as of last count, will get Q3 reports, but she's only raised around $5 million throughout the campaign.
38:58And she's getting outspent 20 to 1 by Rick Jackson.
39:02And in a state like Georgia, you know, that really matters, even with a strong sort of tailwind at the top of the ticket.
39:10So I think this is still a race that is quite tight in the markets.
39:16Jackson is ahead. It's not sort of, you know, an 80-20 or 90-10.
39:20It's close to 60-40, and it's kind of been in that range for, like, the entirety of the campaign.
39:27And it's one that I think could genuinely be a sort of unknown going into Election Day.
39:33It's one of the races where the different forecasts, you know, across places like VoteHub or DDHQ or Nate Silver actually disagree with one another.
39:42And that's another reason why I think it's critical to watch early voting data.
39:47Georgia doesn't report it by party. They report it by race.
39:50And so, you know, there's been some heuristics in the past where if Democrats or if African-American turnout, if they're above 30%
39:58of the electorate, that's a good sign for Democrats.
40:01But in this case, you know, there's a lot of ticket splitters anticipated.
40:06So it might not be as instructive for, you know, Gisela's bottoms as a generic Democrat potentially.
40:12Jerome, thank you so much for joining us. Please let our audience know where they can access your sub stack capital markets
40:20so they can stay on top of everything that is happening in American politics.
40:25Yeah. And if you follow me on Twitter as well, I'm at Zoe Jerome.
40:30Thanks again. Our final segment of today's Predicting Politics episode is near and dear to my heart.
40:36We're talking penny stocks with James Weber. James holds a BA in political science from Cal State Long Beach and an MS
40:43in international business negotiation and geopolitics from the Rennes School of Business in France.
40:48He focuses on geopolitical risk and strategic analysis, bringing a background in open source intelligence and U.S.
40:54policy and law to prediction markets. At Prediction Pro, James runs the brand's political analysis, building fair value models, including a 2026
41:02midterms model covering the Senate and competitive house races and comparing them against prediction market prices for a community of traders.
41:10Welcome to the program, James. Hey, thanks for having me, Michael.
41:13So what's this month like for you from a workflow perspective?
41:17Are you just glued to three screens at the same time?
41:21Do you ever get an opportunity to touch grass on the outside or are you just in the bunker until Election Day?
41:29Yeah, I mean, I wish it was just three screens, but it's four monitors, a phone, it's a podcast going in both ears.
41:37Yeah, it is a lot of numbers, a lot of data floating around and a lot of analysis.
41:43All right, let's head to Big Sky Country and talk Montana's first congressional district race.
41:49Just for perspective, this is in the western part of the state, including Missoula, Great Falls, Butte and Helena.
41:55So some of the bigger cities and areas there in Montana.
41:59This race got interesting in the spring when incumbent Ryan Zinke announced that he would not run for reelection in the congressional district, citing health issues.
42:08So we now have a three horse race. We have Aaron Flint on the Republican ticket, Sam Forstag, the Democrat, and Nick
42:16Schiede, a libertarian who's polling sub six percent. But he's certainly capable of impacting this election.
42:22How do you view this race three weeks out, James?
42:25Yeah, well, I mean, I think that that independent is definitely going to draw a little bit of support from the Republican
42:33side that I don't think is reflected in the polling that's available right now.
42:38I'm seeing Sam Forstag, the Democrat, is across a bunch of different prediction market platforms, is now in the 25 to 30 cent range.
42:47And but the polling is really more reflective of a tighter race.
42:51Everything since mid-September has been within one or two points, which is totally within the margin of error on most of these more competitive races.
43:00I mean, locally, it does make sense for Democrats in the state.
43:04You have like John Tester, who has drawn plenty of votes across the aisle there.
43:09So ticket splitting is totally on the table in this part of the state.
43:14The libertarian vote is going to siphon off a little bit of that Republican support.
43:19And as that race gets closer, that might really become impactful.
43:23And then you have those issues, those more holistic issues out in that part of the state.
43:29You have like the fertilizer costs. You get the diesel costs.
43:33You've got cost of living stuff. It's just a bunch of stuff that's working against Republicans this cycle.
43:39And I think that could start to really impact as we get towards the end of October and some polling gets a little bit tighter.
43:48Historically, when you look at this in terms of a model, is there anything that's useful?
43:54Do you look at the last cycle? I know that we have brand new candidates here.
44:00So do you throw the baby out with the bathwater or do you think there's value in terms of turnout numbers, in terms of historical performance by party?
44:09Does any of that weigh more so in Montana than perhaps other congressional districts of the cycle?
44:15I'm not sure about Montana. I mean, we've so with our prediction pro, we have our own model that we use.
44:23And we have used the last 12 cycles, I believe, are factored into our model.
44:28And we have like 2018. The last Trump midterm year is definitely an outlier as far as Republicans usually overperforming, except for 2018, where Democrats overperformed.
44:37Montana specifically. I mean, it's very rural, a lot of farmland, a lot of ranching.
44:43So the turnout, it's looking like Republican turnout is going to be a little bit weaker this cycle, is what I would project.
44:51And I think that's what makes this race a little bit closer than what polling or even prediction market prices are reflecting.
44:58Up next, Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, Representative Bob Bresnahan Jr.
45:02is defending his seat in a district that President Trump won by 8.5 points in 2024.
45:08But as of now, the Democratic challenger, the mayor of Scranton, Paige Cognetti, is ahead in the latest batch of polling.
45:15You like the incumbent's positioning, however, spell it out for our audience why that is.
45:20Yeah, I mean, Pennsylvania 8th, it's down since mid-September, but we don't really have any new race polling.
45:27So I think it is reflective on just the national numbers and just the projected voter turnouts in the state.
45:34We're looking at like Cook polling. The Republican polling last week moved, I believe, the 10th and another neighboring district around that area of Pennsylvania.
45:43They moved it from Republican held to Democratic lean, but they have left the 8th notably as like a toss up.
45:50Yeah, Bresnahan's the incumbent. He has the Teamsters. He's got his stock trading scandal that we thought was going to dominate this
45:58cycle is kind of in the rear view mirror at this point.
46:02So like on our Prediction Pro model with the polling, we have him closer to it's interesting around around a toss up within the margin of error.
46:11In terms of the races in general, before I let you go, James, is there anything that you are keeping an eye out for a potential October surprise?
46:21It's kind of a cliched overused phrase. Yet there are elements, things that can change gas prices in particular, anything from the
46:29overall economy in terms of news that you believe could perhaps help the Republicans bounce back a touch?
46:35Or are you just taking it, you know, as a blank canvas and not viewing it through the lens of previous races
46:43where news and polling all of a sudden impacted the race in the closing weeks?
46:49Well, I think we've kind of saw the soft launch of the October surprise last week with the easing of sanctions on the Russian oil.
46:57And I think that's going to lead into trying to sow some distrust in results.
47:03I really think that's going to be our October surprise is just invalidating results.
47:08And we're watching Republicans already push back there and have bipartisan support pushing back against this, this Russian oil desanctioning.
47:15And I think it's going to be a couple of different versions of it.
47:20And I don't think we're going to get a big surprise like we've gotten in past cycles.
47:26Thanks for joining us, James. And for our audience, you're going to want to go over and head to Prediction Pro today.
47:33You'll be able to price shop and discover trading opportunities in the market from now all the way up to and beyond Election Day.
47:42And the best part, it's absolutely free. Have subscription fatigue.
47:45I'm not trying to sell you a subscription. I promise.
47:49Get trading angles for free today at Prediction Pro.
47:52That'll do it for episode one of Predicting Politics.
47:55We'll be back here on Friday with Alex Keeney, the founder of Eventual News.
48:00We'll recap everything that's happening today, tomorrow, this entire week.
48:04No stone left unturned. I'm sure there'll be no shortage of news and new data points to dig into.
48:10Also, I'd like it on the record. I have never been to an Ohio mental health facility.
48:16See, you can just go ahead and say it.
48:20Get ahead of the news story. See you guys soon for the sixth year on Wednesday where Duck and I talk college football.
48:28And as always, I'll see you at the window.
48:31Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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49:06Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast.
49:10It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
49:14We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
49:18And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
49:24And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
49:28Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
49:33Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
49:38I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast.
49:42The true crime comedy podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
49:47Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them.
49:52What? I could talk to you for an hour.
49:55You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job.
50:00And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
50:04Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
50:10On recent episodes of the Questlove show, I chatted with JoJo about her music and WALO267 about his story and everything in between.
50:18Don't invite me to karaoke. I'm going to make it weird.
50:22Someone's going to try to sing Leave Get Out or Too Little Too Late or Baby It's You.
50:29Oh, no. And I'm going to be like, okay, cool.
50:32Check out my conversation with JoJo, WALO267, and more on the Questlove show.
50:37Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
50:43Peace. I'm Fox Sports reporter Jenny Taft. And I'm former U.S.
50:47Women's National Soccer Team player Carly Lloyd. And on our new podcast, Whatever It Takes, nothing is off limits.
50:53I played with players that didn't truly love the game.
50:57I found the love with the ball at my foot.
51:00I don't care what I'm being asked to do at Fox.
51:04I'm going to go get some reps and love it and embrace it.
51:09Listen to Whatever It Takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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