NFL Touchdown Show | Week 6

A.J. Brown is expected to be held out again this week against the Jets, which would elevate Afton Chisholm's role as the wide receiver two.

Williams ran 77% of routes last week and is expected to see similarly high route share if Diggs remains out, especially in a trailing game script; offensive coordinator David Blau reportedly wanted to draft him in the third round as the Amon Ra in his offense, and Blau was Amon Ra's backup quarterback in his rookie season. The source projects a breakout game on Monday Night Football before the market catches on.

With Stefon Diggs still not returning to practice, there's a good chance he will be held out again. Williams had 77% routes run rate last week and would expect it to be just as high if Diggs is out, especially in what should be a trailing game script. The source compares him to Amon Ra St. Brown (both wear number 14) and notes that offensive coordinator David Blau wanted to draft Williams in the third round to be the Amon Ra in his offense. At plus 350, the source likes him.

Gilles Gallant targets Caleb Williams at plus 350 or plus 360 for anytime touchdown, believing he will be healthier than the market is pricing in after nearly returning last week from a hamstring injury. Williams scored twice in Week 1 and even at an average scrambling rate, the odds are too high; the Falcons' run defense has been decent but faces a Bears team with numerous receiving options that won't allow stacking the box.

Watson is coming off a six-catch, 143-yard, two-touchdown game against the Bears and the source was surprised to see his odds at plus 130. This is a great matchup against the Cowboys, who rank dead last in pass DVOA. While Joey Porter Jr. could be on Watson quite a bit, the source still likes Watson at plus 130 given Jordan Love's ability to air it out to both him and Matthew Golden.

Knox has three red zone targets on the season, including a target in the end zone last week. The source notes he is schemed into the red zone and generally targets him on island games (Bills at Raiders is an island game). The Raiders have been bad versus tight ends this year, and while Knox only gets one to three targets per game, many tend to come right around the end zone. At plus 600, the source likes him despite the odds being a bit high.

Devonta Smith may be unavailable, which could increase target volume for Dallas Goddard in the Eagles offense.

Sean Kerner likes Isaiah Bond at plus 550 for the Browns because both Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion are questionable; Concepcion is in concussion protocol and typically misses at least one game. Bond saw a huge boost in usage once Concepcion went out last week with a 77% routes run rate, three catches for 74 yards; he went undrafted last year due to legal issues but is considered a third-round talent by many.

Sean Kerner is all in on Isaiah Likely at plus 225 for the Giants against the Saints; Likely's underlying usage has been elite with 66 yards, 94 yards, and two touchdowns in recent games. The Giants have been in three straight heavy rain/sloppy conditions where Jameis Winston missed Likely wide open a couple times with bad throws, but the forecast for the Meadowlands shows perfect weather—the best the Giants have seen in over a month. Additionally, Theo Johnson is dealing with a neck injury and may be out, meaning Likely could play every snap.

Likely is finally seeing the breakout the source has been waiting for with James Winston at quarterback; the source projects he will keep the good vibes rolling against the Saints defense and is using him as the third leg of a parlay at around 44-to-1 odds.

Gilles Gallant likes Jahan Dotson at plus 400 against the Bears defense; in three games with Michael Penix, Dotson has 10 targets with three to the end zone (including a 31-yard TD catch). He runs routes at the second-highest clip on the Falcons behind Drake London, leads the team in ADOT and deep targets, and faces a Bears defense ranked 31st in defensive DVOA versus the deep ball that has allowed seven 40-plus yard passes (most in NFL) through five games.

Ferguson will be heavily involved in the Cowboys offense and is still getting a lot of red zone targets. The source expects him to see targets against the Packers defense, which is not doing well in stopping tight ends. The source likes him to score a touchdown on the Cowboys side for the Cowboys-Packers game.

With Marvin Harrison Jr. out last week, Brooks stepped up and took most of his snaps, running 57% of routes just behind Bourne's 59%. He saw two end zone targets and nearly caught both—one was a 20-yard pass where he nearly made a one-handed catch but dropped it, and another in the back of the end zone where he only got one foot in. The source sees him as having a ton of upside in the Marvin Harrison role, especially in potential garbage time when the Cardinals might use more three-wide receiver sets. At plus 650, the source likes him.

Coker is returning this week and will see increased volume as the Panthers' offense runs through him and McMillan. The source notes Coker has nine targets in each of his two full games played this year and is moving into a wide receiver two role. With Philadelphia's great secondary likely focusing on McMillan, Coker could see extra volume. The source likes him at plus 320 and would hit down to plus 250, citing the Carolina team's massive passing yards output week-to-week.

Jalen Hurts is out, which is expected to increase target volume for Dallas Goddard and potentially other Eagles receivers if Devonta Smith or Saquon Barkley are also unavailable.

James Winston at quarterback for the Ravens is enabling Isaiah Likely's breakout performance, suggesting improved target volume and efficiency for Likely.

Treadwell has 14 targets over the last two games with three in the red zone and two to the end zone. He's been lining up outside mostly with Alec Pierce still out, and this indoor game against Tennessee (31st in defensive DVOA versus the pass, bottom five versus the deep ball) sets up great for him. Treadwell leads the team in average depth of target (ADOT), making him the deep target option for Indianapolis. The source likes him at plus 550.

Gilles Gallant targets Mason Taylor at plus 450 as the likely starting tight end if Kenyon Sadiq misses time due to concussion protocol; Adonai Mitchell hasn't practiced and Christian Gonzalez's status is uncertain. Taylor was heavily used last year, averaging just over five targets per game with two games of 10-plus targets, and led the Jets in red zone targets last year with Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. At tight end one pricing of plus 400 or better, Taylor is the preferred target.

Golden has eight red zone targets so far on the season with only two touchdowns, but two of those have come in the last three weeks. He is getting targeted heavily every single time and the Dallas defense is not good. At plus 145, the source sees the odds as a bit low for his role. There's a decent chance the Packers will have to throw later in the game, which should benefit Golden.

Mayer is effectively the tight end one for the Raiders because Brock Bowers is no longer running stuff from the tight end position and is effectively a wide receiver. Mayer plays 80+ snaps almost every week (only 65 last week as an outlier) and has gotten a decent amount of targets in the red zone. The Bills have been giving up boatloads of yards and points through the air, with nearly every game scoring 26+ or 29+ points. At plus 320, the source sees this as good value in what could be an incredibly high-scoring game.

Westbrook-Ikhine has an ultimate revenge game angle as he plays the Titans for the first time since leaving them in free agency. He's priced at around 17 to 1 and scored nine touchdowns in 2024, giving him significant upside in this matchup.

Grant Niefer recommends Nico Collins at plus 175 as underpriced; Collins has three touchdowns through three games played and the addition of Harrison (a great deep threat) should open things up rather than diminish usage. The Texans are likely to pass heavily against Jacksonville, who has been a massive pass funnel this season, creating favorable conditions for Collins.

Grant Niefer highlights Parker Washington at plus 185 as underpriced despite four touchdowns through five weeks and 35 targets on the year; he's the clear number one wide receiver in the Texans offense and the source notes coach speak about his off-season extension discussions proved true, with Washington looking like a top-five wide receiver at this point in the season.

Grant Niefer recommends Pat Freiermuth at plus 350 despite weather concerns (wind) in the Steelers-Buccaneers game; Freiermuth gets mostly shorter passes where wind is not a problem and can score via the tush-push. He has four touchdowns through five games, consistently gets five-plus targets virtually every game, and has scored in three of five games this year.

Grant Niefer likes Rachaad White (referred to as Igbuka in the transcript, but context indicates this is Rachaad White/Bucky Irving discussion) at plus 310 as underpriced; with Daniels in the Buccaneers offense, they are not throwing downfield much (nine targets last week, longest reception 21 yards), so White gets a lot of shorter area touches. He is the clear number one overall target and can score on the ground or in short area situations.

Saquon Barkley may be unavailable, which could increase target volume for Dallas Goddard in the Eagles offense.

Diggs still hasn't returned to practice yet heading into the Commanders-49ers game, and the source projects a good chance he will be held out again.

At 37 years old, Kelce is still heavily involved in the Chiefs passing game with two touchdowns this year and leads the team in targets per route run. With Rasheed Rice potentially out, Kelce remains an end zone threat and key target as long as Patrick Mahomes is on the field. The source notes the Chiefs historically play well coming off a bye, which should help rejuvenate Kelce's burst. At plus 190, the source takes him as the chalkiest pick of the week.

With Terrence Ferguson still on IR and Colby Parkinson banged up, Higbee is the lead tight end for the Rams. He saw 63% routes run rate last week and has had five or more catches in three straight games. Facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in the last three games, the source expects this game could get ugly early with a ton of touchdowns. At plus 260, the source likes Higbee.