NFL Betting Playground | Week 5
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 11 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 9, 2026
Published
Fri, October 9, 2026
19
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael WilsonJosh AllenTrevor LawrenceAaron RodgersBijan RobinsonBrayden WillisBrenton StrangeC.J. StroudChristian McCaffreyDeshaun WatsonGeno SmithKyle JuszczykLamar JacksonTyler Huntley
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
PositiveProjection5:00
Rodgers' passing yards line set at 220.5 is too low given his offensive scheme change under Mike McCarthy; he's averaging 250 yards per game this season (up from 208 last year), with attempts up from 31 to 38 and top-10 ADOT. Colts defense has allowed second-most passing attempts and yards (262 per game), with quarterbacks hitting 219+ yards in 71% of games (12 of 17). Rodgers hit 300+ yards twice in a row recently and faces a Colts pass rush ranked 28th by BetterDay. The escalator targets over 220.5 (nearly 2-1 value at 187 at DraftKings), 250+ yards (plus 310), and 300+ yards (plus 650).
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeMatchup44:01
Rolled over terrible run defenses in primetime twice; Ravens run defense is excellent with top-10 stuff rate and plays a lot of dime (defensive backs in space); Carly Lloyd expects Ravens to force Falcons into passing game and limit Robinson's effectiveness.
Insight pageBrayden Willis
PositiveBreakout58:30
Third-string 49ers tight end filling in for injured Kyle Juszczyk; played 13 snaps last week and 11 in opener; being used as H-back/fullback; has never had a reception in career; Seattle has allowed 2 running back reception TDs and Juszczyk had 2+ targets in 3 of 4 games vs. Seattle; Carly Lloyd likes Willis TD at +2200 as creative Kyle Shanahan angle.
Insight pageBrenton Strange
NegativeProjection39:20
Brandon Anderson projects Brenton Strange under 35.5 receiving yards against Philadelphia. Strange has been trending down this season: targets dropped from 5.4 to 4.5 (a 20% decline). He was over this line in 8 of 11 healthy games last year but has been 32 yards or less in three of four games this year. Philadelphia's defense under Vic Fangio is a strength against tight ends, allowing 36+ yards only 9 times in the last two seasons plus four games. Zach Vaughn's return at linebacker bolsters this strength. Higby had 67 yards last week, only the fourth Eagles opponent tight end to exceed 36 yards since the start of last season.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection53:20
Carly Lloyd is adamant the Texans are good despite win-loss record; likes Texans to win and under vs. Titans; Texans offense better than media perception; Stroud and offense will benefit from D'Amico Flores taking over defensive play-calling duties.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveUsage10:30
McCaffrey receptions escalator against Seattle is a strong play; he's averaging 6 catches per game in his last 5 games against Mike McDonald's defense (5, 6, 9 catches in prior matchups). Seattle allows the most running back receptions in the league while allowing second-fewest fantasy points to RBs overall—a by-design defensive scheme. McCaffrey's snap count has ramped from 54% in first two games to 79% in last two. Niners receivers are injured (Kyle Juszczyk out), creating more slot opportunities. Seattle has allowed at least 4 RB receptions in all but 3 games this year and is already third in RB receptions allowed. Escalator targets over 4.5 catches (minus 116), 6+ catches (plus 166), and 7+ catches (plus 305).
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeProjection51:36
Carly Lloyd expresses less confidence in Watson than Geno Smith in Jets-Browns matchup; prefers to sell the Browns and buy the Jets at -1.5.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveProjection51:36
Carly Lloyd trusts Geno Smith more than Deshaun Watson in Jets-Browns matchup; prefers Jets at -1.5 despite both teams having beatable run defenses and above-average pass defenses; Jets are the better team overall.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection48:00
Rushing TD odds at -105 (basically even) despite scoring in 4 of 4 games this season (2, 2, 2, 1 rushing TDs); last year scored rushing TD in 8 of 16 games (50%); Joe Brady using him heavily near goal line; Carly Lloyd notes this is underpriced relative to current usage and getting 30 cents of value vs. typical -130 to -135 line.
Insight pagePositiveUsage48:54
Bills consistently take ball on kickoff (only team doing so); Allen has scored first TD in 3 of 4 games; scored in first half as runner all 4 games; Carly Lloyd offers Allen first TD at +675 as a value angle given his early-game involvement.
Insight pageKyle Juszczyk
NegativeInjury58:30
Out for 49ers; important to 49ers' scheme as they motion him out of backfield and use him in slot; his absence opens opportunity for Braden Willis to fill in as H-back/fullback.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury42:00
Expected to be out for Ravens-Falcons game; injury status confirmed by Tuesday morning; Carly Lloyd notes this drops Baltimore from top-seven to bottom-seven offensively and from top-three overall to just outside top-10 as a team.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveBreakout17:00
Michael Wilson is Brandon Anderson's single favorite escalator of the season; he's the Cardinals' true WR1 against Detroit's bottom-3 DVOA defense. Over his last 12 games with Jacoby Brissette (8 last year, 4 this year), Wilson's pace projects to 115 catches, 1,463 yards, and 10 TDs—round-one fantasy receiver production. He's averaging 6.9 catches for 86 yards in that stretch, hitting 89+ yards in 7 of 12 games and 99+ yards in a third. Targets have remained consistent at 11 per game last year and exactly 11 this year (13 and 17 targets in last two weeks). Detroit allows second-most fantasy points to receivers (last two years and this year). True WR1s against Detroit average 7.1 catches, 104 yards on 11 targets, with 8+ catches in all but one game since start of last season (14 instances). Game total 54.5 and rising; both defenses bottom-3 by DVOA.
Insight pagePositiveProjection19:50
Carly Lloyd projects Michael Wilson at 7.5 catches and 95 yards against Detroit, with upside for double-digit catches and 100–150 yards. Over the last 12 games, Wilson averaged 7 catches for 86 yards; he has 4 double-digit reception games and has hit 99+ yards in a third of those games. Last year against Detroit, he had 15 targets three times, posting 118, 142, and 185 yards. This year in the last two weeks, he's averaged 11 targets per game (13 and 17 targets), matching last year's rate.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup21:00
Detroit's defense is predictably poor in coverage stats and ranks first in yards-after-catch per reception defensively, meaning receivers can catch anything and get tackled immediately. However, Lloyd notes this is a volume bet, not an explosiveness bet. Wilson is known as a possession receiver and route runner, not a big yards-after-catch receiver, and Detroit is near the bottom of the league in run and pass explosives. Lloyd expects 15–17 targets (matching WR1 volume against Detroit) and projects 10–12 catches for 10–12 yards per catch, still accumulating significant yardage.
Insight pagePositiveValue24:00
Carly Lloyd identifies multiple betting angles on Michael Wilson's receiving yards against Detroit. The line is 72.5 yards; Lloyd projects 86 yards average (last 12 games) and notes Detroit allows 104 yards to WR1s on average. Lloyd bets over 72.5 (too low), over 100 at +250, over 125 at +550, and over 150 at +1150. She also highlights a smaller sportsbook with juicy escalator pricing (159 over at 15-to-1, 163 at 20-to-1, 169 at 25-to-1, 173 at 30-to-1), where one extra catch can double payouts. Additionally, she targets most receiving yards of the week, noting Chris Olave and T-Mac hit that prop against Detroit recently.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection40:30
Brandon Anderson targets Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown at +310 against Philadelphia. The Eagles have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season: 7 in 2023 (second most) and 3 already in 2024, totaling 10 in 21 games (38% rate). Lawrence had 9 rushing touchdowns last season, making this a favorable matchup for this prop.
Insight pagePositiveProjection40:30
Eagles allow most rushing touchdowns to QBs since start of last season (10 total, 3 this year); Lawrence had 9 rushing TDs last season and 6 games with a score last year; 2 games with multiple TDs; Eagles allowed multiple QB rushing TDs in 2 games; Carly Lloyd likes Lawrence anytime TD at +310 and two TDs at 30-1 as a sneaky angle.
Insight pageTyler Huntley
NegativeRole43:00
Pro Bowl replacement for Lamar Jackson; stylistically similar player; Carly Lloyd notes Huntley is the right backup and that Ben Johnson disciple Declan Doyle (Ravens play caller) has shown backup QBs can provide value, especially on the road.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00I'm Fox Sports reporter Jenny Taft. And I'm former U.S.
0:03Women's National Soccer Team player Carly Lloyd. And on our new podcast, Whatever It Takes, nothing is off limits.
0:09I played with players that didn't truly love the game.
0:12I found the love with the ball at my foot.
0:15I don't care what I'm being asked to do at Fox.
0:18I'm going to go get some reps and love it and embrace it.
0:22Listen to Whatever It Takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:29The miles change how you move, but more importantly, they change how you show up for your life.
0:34I'm Emily Abadi. On the Hurdle with Emily Abadi podcast, I sit down with elite athletes, record holders, coaches, and everyday runners
0:41to unpack the mindset behind pushing through when things get tough.
0:44Because the discipline, grace, and grit you build out there on the pavement, that's what helps you show up as your best self everywhere else.
0:52I just love to say I never know who's watching.
0:55So you want to make sure you you through and through and you just stay true to who you are.
1:01Listen to Hurdle with Emily Abadi on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:07Hi, it's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season, we've got some awesome guests ready to dole out advice.
1:12Guests like Adam Scott. How does that make you feel?
1:15That I look like Tom Cruise? First of all, do you think?
1:19Do you think? Do you think? Do you think?
1:22Do you? I'm sorry. I started the sentence first.
1:24I think I started this interview. Do you? Portia Williams, Sarah Bareilles, Tiffany Haddish, Anna Faris, Kerry Russell, Kristen Johnston, and more.
1:31Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:36Do you love golf? If so, you should listen to 3-putt bogey.
1:40I'm Chuck Bryant from the Stuff You Should Know Podcast.
1:43And I'm Adam Pranica from a couple of embarrassing hit Star Trek podcasts.
1:47And each week on 3-putt bogey, we're going to get into the bunker and get to the bottom of what is just
1:53so alluring and frustrating about the most beautiful game in the world.
1:57So whether you're someone who pipes it on the driving range, but freezes up on the tee box.
2:02Or misses that 3-putt putt when everything's on the line.
2:05Whether to laugh about it with you on 3-putt bogey, a podcast about two mid-handicappers, one great shot, and the 3-putt that spoils it all.
2:13You can listen to it now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:18There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself.
2:22Get Worse with Kyle Pru is not one of those podcasts.
2:26So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptides, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your better, getting closure, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts.
2:34If you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something something for a dastardly individual like you.
2:42Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:47The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:50Run it! All right, here we go. From the 10th, throwing end zone.
2:54Spectacular catch! They're saying it's a catch! Touchdown! You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
3:01Oh my God, that's incredible! Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
3:05All right. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want a bet?
3:08And we are under the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
3:12I'm your host, Matt Moore. Joined, as always, by Brandon Anderson for Brandon Anderson's playground for NFL Week 5 Best Bets.
3:18Brandon's the most fun bettor that you're going to find to tail across the entire betting landscape here at Action Network.
3:24He's also the king of ROI. Nobody's going to bring you bigger swings than Brandon Anderson.
3:29This week, we're going to talk about his escalators, his ladders.
3:32We're going to take the shoot and the mine shafts all the way down.
3:37All sorts of great stuff for Brandon. Brandon, this week, we've got lots of bets for you to shake your head at and be like, okay!
3:45And then just hang on for dear life as he coasts through ancient quarterbacks and lots of other stuff to get to on today's show.
3:52Brandon, give us the breakdown of how you did last week.
3:55Yeah, finally, kind of a more normal week. We had two really good weeks.
4:00We had a truly awful week and then just like a kind of normal week last week.
4:05Up a couple units, up now just under 10% ROI on the year, plus 5.6 units on the season.
4:11So not a lot to say about last week.
4:13Ready for this week and October football. We're here.
4:16All right, getting into the swing of the season.
4:19This is when... I think this is where the metal meets the road when some of the priors that haven't been adjusted really have to be tested.
4:27We'll talk about that later today. Okay, let's start off with some ladder action.
4:31Let's go take the escalator all the way to the moon, Brandon Anderson.
4:35Shoot some ladders, really, as it's ups and downs.
4:38But mostly, it's lots of fun. Going up... I'll meet you at the bottom!
4:42You are starting off with a pretty trusty angle here.
4:45You're fading a bad defense. And to do it, you are taking...
4:49Well, a man who likes his hallucinogenic drugs. And likes his Bengay because it's a very old quarterback.
4:54And you like Aaron Rodgers to go off versus the Colts this week.
4:58I can't believe we're leading this way. I think Aaron Rodgers is about the same age as you and I.
5:04So here we are. We started last week with the Jordan Love escalator.
5:08How about the guy he replaced? So Aaron Rodgers it is.
5:11But Colts Steelers... We talked about this briefly at the end of the Tuesday show.
5:16This is, I think, the single worst spot on the schedule for any team this season.
5:21The Colts are back from London. On the road.
5:23No rest. The Steelers are home. Extra rest off Thursday night football.
5:27So just a huge, great setup spot for the Steelers.
5:30I would have bet anything. I would have been like minus 200 before the season, Matt, that I would be playing Steelers below three here automatically.
5:38But my numbers can't get there. My numbers actually still prefer Indy.
5:42Even when I priced in this big bump for the Steelers spot.
5:45So what's the matchup? Both defenses top 12 against the run by DVA.
5:49Bottom 10 against the pass. So both offenses prefer to run.
5:53That's what they're better at. They're not great passing.
5:55Bottom 10 at that. So then what happens? It's on the quarterbacks.
5:59If it's on the quarterbacks, that means... Cool. Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers.
6:03What a matchup we've got. And I guess I have to prefer Rodgers.
6:07And I check into my angles. I was ready to just cross this one off and be like, yeah, I got nothing on this one.
6:14And I saw Rodgers passing yards line. Only 220.
6:17I just think that's too low. So we're going to take the Rodgers yards over 220 and a half.
6:23So Colts defense has very much been a pass funnel under Lou Anarumo.
6:27They allowed the second most passing attempts. The second most yards last year as well.
6:31262 per game. That's way above what this line is.
6:34They allowed at least 219 yards. Basically the line we've got.
6:3812 of 17. So 71%. Of those five misses, two of them, the quarterback got hurt.
6:42So really only three times truly under this number.
6:45So over 220 and a half. And then I had to look at the escalator.
6:50This year, the Colts have already allowed the fifth most yardage to quarterbacks.
6:54Already two quarterbacks, 300 plus yards. Six most fantasy points.
6:57And though the Colts are very much the same, I think defensively, Rodgers is not.
7:01So this is not a, I still believe in Aaron Rodgers take.
7:05This is not that. I do believe Aaron Rodgers played different under Mike McCarthy.
7:09More aggressive, more downfield. Top 10 ADOT. His attempts are up 31 to 38.
7:13His yardage per game is up 208 last year to 250 this year.
7:17So I'm calling this the reluctant Rodgers escalator. 250 yards plus 187 at DraftKings.
7:21That's his average for the season. We're getting almost 2-1 on it.
7:25And Colts opponents hit that almost half of their games last year.
7:29275 yards. So 25 more yards at plus 310.
7:31That hit about a third of the Colts games last year.
7:35Rodgers has done that two games in a row.
7:37And then 300 yards is where we'll stop. Plus 650.
7:41Look, Rodgers has hit 300 yards one time since 2021.
7:44So this is why we're stopping there. But last week, 299.
7:47So one yard away. The Colts allowed it six times last year.
7:51They already had a 324 and a 382 this year.
7:54That was Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Aaron Rodgers at his peak.
7:57He's right in that mix. Let's just get a 300 and call it good.
8:01So Rodgers over the 220. And then we'll take it up to 300 on the escalator.
8:06The reluctant Rodgers escalator. Can I ask you why you think this line is this low?
8:11I don't really know. I think it's just because Rodgers' numbers, especially last year.
8:15I mean, last year his yardage per game was 208.
8:18So I think it's kind of just taking that number and maybe throwing out a bit that like, okay, well, he's not Lamar.
8:25He's not Mahomes. So, you know, the other two games this year, quarterbacks against the Colts have been below 200.
8:31And Rodgers is certainly closer to those guys at this point than to Lamar Mahomes.
8:36So I think there are a couple of plays I have today where I think the line is wrong, but the line
8:43sort of reflects what last year's numbers should indicate.
8:45And I think books are sticking with the priors.
8:48And I'm usually a stick to the priors person, but I'm kind of moving ahead on a couple of these.
8:54So I think maybe that's a... Yeah, it's weird.
8:57249.8 he's averaging versus... And like they've faced some actual teams here.
9:00I was like, okay, you know, the Colts defense, you can pass on them.
9:05Can they actually attack the quarter? No, 28th and pass rush on betterday.com.
9:09I can't... I was like, maybe it's a drive problem where like the Colts are going to keep the ball because their running game is so good.
9:17No, Steelers number nine in run defense. They should get enough stops here for him to get the ball.
9:22It... I mean, I can't argue with you on this.
9:26This is insane. Why would any line for the Colts, for any quarterback, any quarterback...
9:30It was not Cooper Rush. Any quarterback but Cooper Rush be less than their average.
9:35Yeah, I think he sniped a sharp one here but it's just like...
9:39Look, I... 350 yards is 22 to 1 and I was ready to bring that in.
9:43Any other quarterback, I'd bring that when we're at up to 300.
9:47Why not take a shot 22 to 1? But Rodgers just is not getting anywhere near that number.
9:52Even 300 is a pretty big stretch for him.
9:55So this is an escalator where I will definitely kind of focus more on like, let's get over the line on the
10:02surer parts of it rather than get too aggressive on the higher parts.
10:06Pittman is out as a receiver. I don't really mind that for this, but I'd rather him chuck it deep to DK
10:12Metcalf and not do the short stuff to Pittman.
10:15So I don't know that he's going to have a monster game.
10:19I just think the line is too low here.
10:21Okay. So Aaron Rodgers off of the bang with an ancient quarterback.
10:25Go over. Next up, divisional battle should be a great game as the Niners continue to head towards their annual status as the Walking Dead.
10:33Coming up against the Seahawks here. And I like this play a lot.
10:37Kind of been a... It was a quiet week for Christian McCaffrey last week in the win over the Broncos.
10:43And you like him to get going in the passing game going up against the Seahawks.
10:48Yeah, we're going to do the McCaffrey receptions escalator.
10:50And we are often looking at the running back reception escalator against the Seahawks.
10:54So that's kind of an autoplay for me here.
10:57Like you said, this game rocks. This is the game of the week, certainly on Sunday.
11:02This is for the early king of the NFC.
11:05These teams, the last two seasons since Mike McDonald got there, they split the regular season.
11:10Notably, all four road teams won in those games.
11:12Though also notably, Seattle defense killed this offense the last two times, including the big playoff win last year.
11:18So what does that mean for this matchup? Does Seattle defense have the answer?
11:22That's kind of been Mike McDonald's thing. That's why they went and got him.
11:27He's been the guy to have answers against the Shanahan and McVay offenses when nobody else does.
11:32Seattle's offense, I think, is the weak link here.
11:34Pretty obviously between the units. They can't run the ball at all right now.
11:39I would lean Niners plus three. There are some solid Niners trends, especially for unbeaten underdog.
11:43I think you kind of are leading Seahawks. I'll give the McCaffrey angle in a second, but what do you think about this matchup here?
11:51I just think that we're just entering that time when it's like, the Niners are so good.
11:56It's a shame that everyone's dead. That's a shame.
11:59I just think that this is inevitable with how they rack up injuries, and whether it's a substation or training staff or
12:06bad luck or whatever else you want to do.
12:08I also think Seahawks, I think the Seahawks are a little annoyed with how they've played.
12:13I think the Seahawks are very much, and look, teams have Super Bowl hangovers, but I think that this team is just
12:20kind of like, we should be better than we are.
12:23And when you look at their overall numbers, I mentioned BetterDay.com's got trend report rating, number two run defense, number two pass rush.
12:30The offense, I think, is the problem. Can the Seahawks generate enough offense?
12:34I'm higher on Sam Darnold than you are. We've talked about quarterbacks a lot in our chats.
12:39Please never mention Tyler Shuff to me again. I just had him high.
12:43I mentioned that I basically thought, hey, I think Tyler Shuck might be pretty good.
12:47And every time that Tyler Shuck, if Tyler Shuck gives incorrect change to someone, Brandon texts me about it.
12:53That's true. Every single time, if Tyler Shuck gets his sleeve caught in a car door, I'm getting a text from Brandon
13:00Anderson about how much Tyler Shuck is a clown.
13:02But I'm higher on Sam Darnold. So that's kind of the angle here.
13:06I just kind of look at the line and think that the Seahawks are, I just, I do think they're better.
13:13I think the Niners are good, but I'm not quite sure, especially with the interest.
13:17I think they're trending in the wrong direction here.
13:20As far as that goes, that's kind of where I'm at on this game.
13:24Yeah, I think that makes sense. I agree. The Niners are certainly trending in the wrong direction.
13:29I just think the market is a touch high on Seattle.
13:33I think we're still pricing Seattle like their last year's team, just kind of assuming them as the Super Bowl champions.
13:39And they just don't quite, quite seem that level to me.
13:42So this maybe is a spot where we see a little bit of that.
13:47McCaffrey receptions. I think that the angle is pretty easy, actually last year against Seattle, five, six and nine catches in those
13:53games, five games with the Niners against Mike McDonald defense.
13:56He's averaging six catches a game. Again, we've gone over this before.
14:00This is by design. This is Seattle's defense on purpose.
14:03They shut down the run game. They allowed the second fewest fantasy points to running back, but the most running back receptions.
14:10And that's again, continued into this season. So last year they allowed at least four running back receptions, all but three games this year.
14:17They're already third most in running back receptions. And McCaffrey has actually kind of had a, like you said, a bit of
14:24a quieter start only three, four, four and five catches this year, but snap count.
14:28The first two games, 54% last two, 79%. So I think that's part of it there.
14:33We tried the Kalen black escalator last week. He wasn't really doing much.
14:37It's the McCaffrey show. It just took a bit to ramp up for the season.
14:41And in this matchup, I think this is not only a Seattle weak spot, but the Niners receivers are all hurt.
14:48Kyle use check is out. That's going to be some more slot possibilities for McCaffrey.
14:52I think it's a great setup for him here in this spot.
14:56So over four and a half catches at minus one 16.
14:59He hit the over four and a half, 13 of 17 games last year, because normally it's like over five and a half.
15:06So we hit that all three Seattle games. CX have allowed at least five running back receptions, 13 of their last 21 since the start of last season.
15:15And then we'll just kind of do a small escalator here.
15:18Nothing too crazy until we see McCaffrey really look like himself.
15:21Six catches plus one 66 at DraftKings. That's hit in 11 of 17 last year, including two of the three Seahawks games,
15:28seven catches at plus three Oh five. He had that seven times last year.
15:32Seattle allowed seven plus running back catches, almost half of their games last year.
15:36So I like the running backs against Seattle. If you like running backs catching against Seattle, you're obviously playing McCaffrey all the way.
15:43And just as a little, a little spoiler here, we'll be back to this game.
15:48One more time. Way later in the show for, for one more similar angle.
15:52I will do as I always do the two high shell reference Seahawks number three and two high shell.
15:58And so like combine what I told you about the pass rush.
16:02If Purdy's under pressure and the safeties have it locked down deep, what is he going to do?
16:07He's just going to pass to McCaffrey. It's just like, this is a very logical schematic.
16:12If then diagram. It is, it's just very literally, Hey, they are putting pressure out.
16:16They're collapsing the pocket. He needs to get rid of the ball.
16:20So he doesn't die. There's nobody deep. And like, certainly it's McCaffrey.
16:24So the Seahawks will account for this, but McCaffrey is too good.
16:27So there will still be space for him. Especially.
16:30I love the receiving the receptions angle on this.
16:33I think that's such like a, like, this is a very good way to go about it in terms of just like
16:39going for the catches and not the extra yardage.
16:42I think that that's really smart here. I'm all the way with you on this.
16:47I regret to inform you as I think I have three of your bets this year.
16:52Moving on, you opened by attacking a Colts, terrible past defense.
16:55Um, and lo and behold, here comes the Detroit lions to afford you another opportunity this time with an Arizona Cardinals wide receiver.
17:02Yeah. So receiver, not a tight end. Kravitz brought this one up on the Tuesday show.
17:07He wanted the McBride escalator. I looked at it.
17:09I think McBride will have a nice game. I want wide receiver ones against Detroit.
17:14So we're taking the Michael Wilson escalator here. And let me just tell you, this did not lead the show, but this
17:21might be my single favorite escalator of the season.
17:23So far, I cannot believe the lines that we were getting.
17:27I think there's huge upside value. Look Cardinals lines.
17:29I don't need to really tell you too much.
17:32There's going to be a lot of points in the game.
17:35Total 54 and a half and rising lines game.
17:38So far this year, totals of 55, 58, 61 and 72.
17:41We're going to move the ball a lot. We're going to score a lot.
17:46That's what's happening in this game. And both defenses, bottom three by DVOA.
17:50So it's going to be just lots of possessions, lots of scoring, especially both bad against the past, lots of injuries in the secondary.
17:57A lot of trends on Detroit here. I wanted to look hard at Detroit, but I think they're a bit overpriced in
18:04the market and five and a half kind of no man's land.
18:07So back to the escalator, back to wide receiver one against Detroit.
18:11Lines have allowed the second most fancy points to receivers last year and the year before that.
18:16And guess where they rank so far this year?
18:19You got it right. It's second. They allow so many points to receivers.
18:23And I have some regrets. I have to admit, Matt, because we played this exact angle in the opener.
18:28Chris Olave. We smashed. We hit the escalator all the way up.
18:32And I forgot to give out most yards for the week.
18:35And he hit that one. And so then I was like, okay, got to remember the angle.
18:40So the next week, I was like, okay, Garrett Wilson.
18:43I don't know. Do we like Garrett Wilson? Do we trust the Jets?
18:47I like the angle. I don't know. We'll wait and see.
18:51Garrett Wilson, 10 catches, 107 yards. Would have hit a lot of escalator value for us.
18:56Didn't play it. Last week, we tried the Jamison Williams escalator Sunday night.
19:00In my notes, I had Teddero McMillan, wide receiver one against the Lions.
19:03Pretty good numbers here. Didn't play it. You watched 14 catches, 192 yards and two scores.
19:08So we're playing wide receiver ones against the Lions this week because they are crushing.
19:13Since the start of last season, I count what I'm calling true wide receiver ones, 14 times against the Lions.
19:19Here's the average stat line. 7.1 catches, 104 yards, averaging 104 yards on 11 targets, eight or more catches, all but one of those.
19:26They're getting peppered with targets. Over 100 yards in over half of those.
19:30So, we all know Trey McBride. For some reason, not everyone knows Michael Wilson as much.
19:35I think maybe just kind of like a boring name and easy to forget about him.
19:40He really broke out last season, the second half with Jacoby Brissette.
19:43If you look at just his last 12 games now with Brissette, so eight games last year, four this year, his season
19:50long pace for Michael Wilson, 115 catches, 14, 1463 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
19:54That's like a round one fantasy receiver. And nobody even knows that much about this dude.
19:59He's averaging almost seven catches for 86 yards in that stretch, 89 yards or more, seven of the 12, 99 or more in a third of the games.
20:07I kind of thought it was maybe a little fake last year with him because the Cardinals were just passing crazy amounts of volume down the stretch.
20:15Some monster target games. You're not going to get that.
20:18Well, he averaged 11 targets a game the last date.
20:22He's at exactly that same number again this year in the last two weeks, 13 and 17 targets.
20:27So Matt, I have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.
20:31I have 10 Michael Wilson bets. Any thoughts on the angle before I just start to rattle off a whole lot of numbers for you?
20:38So many, that's so many. So, you know, if you're going to do this, I just want to, I want to stress
20:45people because I make this mistake all the time because I have ADHD.
20:49And so I am like, and then I move on.
20:52You got to get everything that he puts in.
20:55You got to tell the whole, the whole meal.
20:58You can't be like, I'm going to get the steak and the potatoes, but I'm not getting the asparagus because then the asparagus is like what hits.
21:06So you got to do the whole meal when Brandon does these.
21:09Um, I have a question for you. Okay. This is via, uh, Sam Hoppin is excellent.
21:14Substack that I pay a lot of attention to.
21:17So, um, lions are predictably terrible in all of these coverage stats.
21:21This is going to be about explosives. Doesn't it?
21:23Well, it's yak. They're number one in yak per reception defensively.
21:27So it's basically like you can catch whatever you want on them and then they're going to tackle it immediately.
21:33That doesn't really help you lions, but you know, it is that I just want to confirm because like Wilson is known
21:39as a possession receiver and a route runner. So this kind of ties into that very well, but does the escalator nature
21:46of this concern you a little bit given that, that he's to my knowledge, not a big yak receiver and they're not a big yak defense.
21:54And they've not been good at explosives either. I think they're near the bottom of the league and run and pass explosives,
22:00but they haven't got to play the lions yet.
22:03So I think, you know, this is a bet on volume over anything else.
22:07So it's not necessarily like Jameson Williams last week was like, I think there'll be volume, but it's a bad defense.
22:14He might take one of the house. He may go 70.
22:17I don't really, I'm not expecting that from Wilson.
22:20I'm just expecting like the, if you look at the receiver ones against the lions, we're seeing like 15 targets, 17 targets.
22:26And if you get that and you catch 10 or 12 of them, and you're only getting like 10 or 12 yards
22:33of pass, you still racked up a whole lot of yardage and a whole lot of stuff along the way.
22:39So let me get into the numbers. I think you'll continue to answer that question.
22:44So you know how I do this. I kind of start with my own research and numbers before I even look at
22:50the lines, because I don't want to be spoiled by the line.
22:54So I projected Wilson something around seven and a half catches, 95 yards.
22:58I think he has upside for double digit catches.
23:01I think he has upside for a hundred, even 150 yards.
23:04So I thought receptions was a good angle. The line's five and a half and I have them at seven and a half.
23:11However, he's five catches or less in over half of this stretch of games.
23:15So he doesn't always have a ton of catches in the volume.
23:19It's just that when he does, he has a lot.
23:22He has four double digit reception games. So when he has the right matchup, when he gets the targets, they give him the target.
23:29So one receptions play here, just the one 10 catches at plus 900.
23:33So only that one. That's not the bottom of the escalator.
23:36I assure you, but it's because I prefer yards.
23:39Detroit's giving up the chunk plays they're tackling because it's like, Oh yeah, they hit you 25 yards down the field and tackled you.
23:46Well, you still got the 25 yards, even if they didn't give you much yak after that.
23:52So the line for Wilson on yardage 72 and a half.
23:55I just think that's way too low. His average the last 12 games is 86 yards.
24:00Detroit wide receiver one average we said was 104.
24:0272 is just too low. So that's the start.
24:05And then obviously a hundred yards plus two 50.
24:08We just said Detroit is allowing more than that on average.
24:11Wide receiver one. Wilson has 99 or more four times out of the 12.
24:15So a third of the time last two games, 89 and 95.
24:19So hasn't done it yet this, this year, but I think this is the spot against the lions last year.
24:25Wilson had 15 targets three times in those games.
24:28Here's the volume. 118 yards, 142 yards, 185 yards, even without busting super huge long ones.
24:33It's just so many passes to Michael Wilson. So here we go.
24:36125 yards plus five 50 Detroit allowed 120 or more six of 14.
24:40The wide receiver ones, 150 yards plus 11 to 50 Detroit allowed that four times twice this year.
24:46And for many of you, you may have to stop the escalator there, but there's, there's one book out there.
24:52We don't say the books on the show, but look around.
24:55There's one smaller book. Let me just point out.
24:58I'm going to read off a bunch of numbers here, but listen to the intervals.
25:02We're jumping like five yards and jumping plus 500.
25:05If you see an opportunity like that, when we're 150 to go to 159 to 163 to 169, that's the jumping.
25:11That's like not even one catch. One catch might jump two or three of those groups.
25:16159 over is 15 to one. 163 is 20 to one.
25:20169 is 25 to one. 173 is 30 to one.
25:23We jumped 14 yards and went from 15 to one to 30 to one.
25:27That's one catch. One catch should not make you double the payout.
25:30This is where the escalator is juicy because if we're right, and if we're right and we get one extra catch that
25:37we might hit all those extra steps for huge, huge extra payouts, even though the percentage only barely changed.
25:43So that's why I'm giving all those out. If you can find anything like that, you have to jump on it.
25:49We're probably not right. We're probably going to lose all those extra ones, but if we are right that once a season,
25:56when this one hits, you get a whole lot of payout on it.
26:00The last one, there's not lines yet because I think it goes up on like Saturday, but I talked about with Olave.
26:06I wish we'd given out most receiving yards of the week for week five.
26:11Olave hit that against the Lions. T-Mac hit that last week against the Lions.
26:15So watch for that one. I don't have a number for it yet, but it's Michael Wilson.
26:20It's not going to be among the favorites here.
26:23So we'll add that one as well. So to recap, over 72 and a half yards, and then a hundred, one 25 and one 50.
26:30And as high up as you can go. And then 10 catches as well.
26:35And most yards for the week. I told you 10 bets.
26:38It's Michael Wilson day. Let's, let's hope he hits.
26:41Woo. You love, love. I love this. You love this bet.
26:44Um, okay. Final for the escalator. And I'm actually going to coin, I coined the mineshaft and I'm going to coin these type of bets.
26:52Cause you've been putting these in a little bit more and it's money line.
26:56And then spread on the dog. We're going to call these the seven 10 split.
27:00Oh, because you're trying to hit two opposite angles on one in the same game parlay.
27:05And you're looking towards an NFC matchup between the New York giants and the Washington commanders.
27:10Yeah. And I like the underdog here. It's our second week in a row.
27:14We're ending our, our ladders section here with the giants.
27:17Give me the giants plus three and a half.
27:20Yeah. Look last week. I said, this was the wonk line of the week with the giants.
27:25I think it's again, the long line of the week.
27:28Why are the giants three and a half point underdogs against the commanders?
27:32What are the commanders done? this season, what have they done to be favorites, clear favorites in this one?
27:38I guess the answer is they got Jane Daniels back for the week.
27:42It looks like he's supposed to play. I expect him to play.
27:45I'm not picking this line, expecting him not to play, but what level we, we got like a game of him so far.
27:52He missed a lot of last season. He didn't look that great yet.
27:56He's coming back from injury. Now, how, how hurt is he?
28:00How rusty is he? We don't really know how good Daniels will be.
28:04What we do know is you kind of tend to focus on the quarterback being back, but how about the rest of the injury report?
28:11Cause Washington has 23 names on their injury report.
28:1423 is a lot of football players. I don't know if you know this, but 11 players play offense and 11 play defense.
28:21That's 22 and they have 23 guys on the list.
28:24So it's both starting receivers. It's offensive linemen. It's a bunch of defenders.
28:28It doesn't include Laramie Tunsil is already out for the year.
28:31And again, a team coming back from London with no rest.
28:34And here they are. They are at home. So at least they get that part out of it.
28:40But usually that means a tire defense. The giants defense, I think is the best unit of the four.
28:46That's what DVOA says so far, kind of around league average giant special teams.
28:50Looks like a huge advantage here. The second best.
28:53That is the, the John Harbaugh specialty. Washington has not been good there.
28:57And then I haven't done as many trends this year, Matt, but I had a lot of trends hit for us here.
29:03So Harbaugh as an underdog, 58% against the spread as a division underdog, 29 in the one ATS 69%.
29:09That's second best in bet labs. By contrast, Dan Quinn, the worst active coach as a favorite, 41% against the spread.
29:15And then Jameis Winston, not who you want to back a lot of the time, but as over a field goal underdog,
29:22we like him 23, 13 and one 64% against the spread.
29:25And then last one is team agnostic division road dogs between the three and seven points since 2006, the last two decades,
29:3257% cover rate on almost 400 games. That's the lowest percentage, but that's a huge sample.
29:37That's our strongest trend of any of them. So I think this line is goofy Tuesday.
29:42We gave it out giants plus four and a half.
29:45We'll take it at plus four here. There's three and a half in the market.
29:49Anything above the three I'm good with last week, we took the giants cover and we took your seven, 10 split, Matt.
29:56We took the alt minus six and a half.
29:59And by golly, on the last play of the game, we got the lock off pick six to cash it.
30:05Now look, we were lucky to cash the alt.
30:07We were not lucky to cash the giants. That was the right side and was our side all the way there.
30:14So let's roll some of that out money over.
30:16Let's try another giants alt. Here's the angle. This time 10 of the last 13 giants commanders games were one score games.
30:23Now four of them are six, seven, eight points.
30:26So I want all the way up to eight.
30:28Here's the angle. Same game. Parlay giants money line, Washington plus eight and a half.
30:33So we're taking the giants to win by eight or less.
30:36It's plus two 60. You can play giants by one to six at a lot of books.
30:41That's plus four 25 at draft Kings. You know me, Matt, I like the aggressive angle.
30:46I want the extra payout. The numbers say that we're going to touchdown game here a lot.
30:51So I'm going to be a little bit more conservative here.
30:55It's still the giants. Let's be real. So plus two 60 for giants to win by eight or less.
31:01Okay. I like this. I like the giants here.
31:03I think a lot of this is like why, you know, what are the commanders?
31:08It's just, I think most of this line is just Jameis Winston.
31:11Because if you look across the stats, it's like EPA per play 32 CPOE 29.
31:16Like every single quarterback stat is horrific. If you look at stable quarterback stats, first and second down non play action, he's fine.
31:23He's bone X. It's not good. Not good. Be very clear, but he's fine.
31:27He's not like, again, I will this poor guy, but I was really frustrated early in the season with the Falcons.
31:34He's not Cooper rush. So it's fine. I will note that the commanders are like second in blitz rate.
31:39So that makes me a little bit nervous here where it's like, if, if Winston is struggling when he's pressured and they pressure him, that could be bad.
31:48But I just think this line I'm with you.
31:50I think the line is wrong. And if the giants are going to win, it does feel like they win small.
31:57Uh, I like the seven, 10 split here on plus eight and a half for the commanders and giants money line plus two 60.
32:04Okay. We'll get to more best bets from Brandon, but first here's a quick word from our sponsor draft Kings.
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37:33NFL Sunday and all throughout the NFL weekend. Get into the sandbox.
37:37We're going to hit some simpler stuff here for you to go ahead and give your take on.
37:42And we're going to start by going to the Jaguars' real home abroad as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles.
37:48A lot of news about the Eagles this week.
37:51And you're taking some props on the Jags as they take on what is a pretty battered and a lot of criticism-led Eagles team.
37:58Yeah, I like to give bets for these Sunday morning games when we can.
38:03We're going to do all the island games now because, you know, we're all watching the island games.
38:08So we're watching, I guess England is a double island game here for Jacksonville.
38:12We're going to take a couple of Jaguars on the props.
38:16Weird line move, right? This was two and a half Sunday.
38:19Got all the way to eight and a half.
38:22I think it's seven and a half right now.
38:24Now, without really a ton of huge new injury news, like Lane Johnson retired, but we already knew he didn't play last week.
38:31And there are a lot of Eagles injuries, but they're not new.
38:35We knew what they were. It's just everybody loves the Jaguars and everybody hates the Eagles.
38:40And it's the bottom of the market on them.
38:43I think the value, if you're doing it aside, the value has to be filled out if you're nothing.
38:48Like there's a lot of two and two trends on this.
38:52The number has gone way too far. But I have tried the falling knife a couple of times in the last few weeks.
38:59This is like a falling cliff and universe. I want nothing to do with Philadelphia right now.
39:04So I'm not going to bet on them. I think the bottom could really be falling out.
39:09We gave out the Eagles win total mine shaft on Tuesday.
39:12So by the way, you coin mine shaft too.
39:15So I'm going to give you the 7-10 split and we'll just keep naming stuff here.
39:20Here's the props I do like this week. A rare under from me, Brenton Strange under 35.5 receiving yards.
39:26Look, we give out a lot of tight end love here.
39:29This week, we're going under on a tight end.
39:32Higby last week had 67 yards against the Eagles.
39:34Only the fourth Eagles opponent tight end to go over 36 yards since the start of last season.
39:40This is a strength of the Philadelphia defense under Vic Fangio.
39:43So they've only allowed 36 yards or more nine times in the last two seasons, plus now these four games.
39:49And importantly, Zach Vaughn at linebacker is back. That's part of why they're so good against tight ends.
39:55Strange has not been as good this season. He was last week because they played the Bengals.
40:00Our producer, David Payne, before I even put in my bets, had Brenton Strange 100 yards and 10 catches escalated.
40:06Now we went for Nate Borker, sure, it didn't work out for us.
40:10I probably should have done David's last week. But despite that, Strange is 32 yards or less in the other three games this year.
40:17His targets are down 5.4 to 4.5. That's a 20% drop in targets.
40:21He was over this line 8 of 11 healthy games last year.
40:25He's trending down and it's a bad matchup. So we're going to go Strange under 35.5 receiving yards.
40:30And then another Fangio tendency, kind of a weird one, the Eagles, for whatever reason, allow a lot of rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.
40:37They allowed seven last season, second most. They've allowed three already this year.
40:41Combine that, since the start of last season, that is the most of any team in the NFL.
40:46So Trevor Lawrence, anytime touchdown, plus 310. The Eagles have allowed at least one of those, 8 of 21 since the start of last season, 38%.
40:54Lawrence had nine rushing touchdowns last season, Matt. Did you know that?
40:58He hasn't had one yet, but that really has become a thing for him.
41:02He had six games with a score last year.
41:05He also has three games with, or two, sorry, two games.
41:08Three games, yeah, with multiple touchdowns. The Eagles have two games where they've allowed multiple touchdowns to a quarterback on the ground.
41:15So a little early morning crumpets nibble. Lawrence, two touchdowns at 30-1.
41:18So under on Strange and Lawrence to find the end zone.
41:22Hopefully a second time if we get a little bonus to start our Sunday.
41:26Yeah, I'm terrified of this game. As you mentioned, trying to catch a thermonuclear weapon with the Eagles right now.
41:32Like that's how bad it is. The nuclear football.
41:35Yeah, it's real bad. And look, you know, but you can't bet Jags because I feel like they're at top value.
41:41They're at Apex and Eagles or at Nadir. So I don't know how you put a spread play on this game, but
41:48I do think taking these angles in particular, pretty smart.
41:51That Lawrence one, that's a sneaky great one by Brandon.
41:54Okay. Sunday Night Football. Ravens taking on the Falcons.
41:57Falcons coming off of a monster win. Ravens without Lamar Jackson expected.
42:00It's going to be Huntley. And you like the Baltimore Ravens to get it done anyway.
42:05Excited to hear this cap. Yeah, I think this is the other wonk line of the week.
42:10Well, what are we doing with this line? So a quick recap on how this has gone this week.
42:16Sunday morning, this was Ravens minus six and a half.
42:19Lamar gets hurt. So Sunday night, you are texting with me and Raheem about, man, kind of like the Falcons.
42:25It's down to Ravens minus three and a half because Lamar is hurt.
42:29We don't know if he's going to play. Monday, the Falcons win and look amazing.
42:33And by Tuesday morning, Lamar is likely out. We still don't know for sure, but the line is certainly expecting him out for the week.
42:41So now it suddenly goes to Atlanta minus two and a half.
42:45Now it's minus three and a half. Minus three and a half from Ravens minus six and a half is a 10 point swing.
42:52What are we doing? That is way too much for anyone.
42:55Even Lamar Jackson. It's way too much faith in Atlanta.
42:58Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley is the right backup.
43:01Stylistically, you're getting a similar sort of player there.
43:04Technically, you're getting a Pro Bowl replacement. Because that's how we do Pro Bowls these days.
43:09Look, I would rather have Lamar Jackson. Drops Baltimore without him from top seven to bottom seven offensively.
43:14So pretty huge swing. It drops them from top three overall to just outside my top 10 as a team.
43:20Pretty big swing. Guess what? Just outside my top 10.
43:23Still miles better than Atlanta. What are we doing?
43:26Why is Atlanta better than a field goal favorite in this game?
43:29Normally, I like the Huntley-Unders angle. That's kind of an autoplay.
43:33But we don't really know what this will look like.
43:36A lot of that was under John Harbaugh. We have seen what Ben Johnson looked like with a backup quarterback recently.
43:42Declan Doyle, the Ravens play caller, is the Ben Johnson disciple.
43:45These backup quarterbacks keep showing up. There's usually value on them, especially on the road here.
43:50Is Atlanta real? I'm not ready to buy the Atlanta love yet.
43:54We saw last year a couple random big games and the right matchup.
43:58Atlanta is real. I don't think this is the right matchup.
44:01We saw Bijan now twice in primetime roll over terrible, terrible run defenses.
44:05Run defenses inviting the run. Jesse Minter is not going to do that.
44:09He's going to have answers and force the passing game.
44:12And we've seen Atlanta defense. Speedy defense. Great against certain opponents.
44:15Great when you're facing the Packers and the Saints who can't block.
44:19I don't love the Ravens offensive line, but I trust them to find some answers here.
44:24It's the better coach team. They're going to be ready here.
44:27They're going to have a plan. Atlanta is coming off a short week.
44:31I think an emotional division win that they're excited to get.
44:34And really, this is a big bet on Ravens defense.
44:38I don't even know that I believe this, but right now in my kind of ratings matrix, I have the Ravens number one defensively.
44:45They have not looked the part there yet, but I trust them, especially with Matabike back to hold the fort down here.
44:51And I still make the Ravens favorites in this game.
44:54I don't know what this line has done. Stefanski has a favorite.
44:58That's Atlanta's coach. 41% ATS. 41% ATS against teams over 500 as well.
45:02Here's another one. A couple of trends to fade the hot team.
45:06Two and two teams. That's Atlanta. Week five, where their yards per play so far in the season is five and a half or better.
45:13That's Atlanta. 17 and 35 against the spread. 33%.
45:16Since 2010, teams that just won by 17 or more as an underdog with touchdown or less.
45:21That's Atlanta. 36% ATS. Just get out of here with this line.
45:25This is the perfect buy low on the Ravens with Huntley.
45:28It's the perfect sell high on the Falcons. Ravens.
45:31I'll take Ravens plus three and a half. And I think they probably win the game.
45:36Ravens rush defense is excellent. They're top 10 stuff rate.
45:39They don't play heavy box. They don't stack it.
45:41They play a lot of dime. So it's theoretically, it's defensive backs in space trying to tackle Bijon.
45:47That makes me like a little nervous. Like a little, like a little nervous.
45:51But they are so good in this category. And I agree the line move is too much.
45:56Well, then one of those defensive backs in space is going to be named Kyle Hamilton.
46:01So it's a little different when you get the right players in space to have to make some of those plays too.
46:08Yeah. See, I'm mad because everybody talked about Kyle Hamilton a couple years ago in the Ravens Chiefs matchup.
46:13And I was like, really? Really? And then Travis Kelsey pantsed him.
46:17Monday Night Football. You're getting in on Josh Allen.
46:20Somebody tackle Josh Allen. If you haven't been on Instagram, that's everywhere.
46:23Where you want, you think Allen's getting in the end zone versus the Rams.
46:28Yeah, just pretty chalky play here. It's obviously one of the games of the year.
46:32Our best Monday night game of the season. Bill's Rams.
46:35We'll obviously all be watching it. I like Allen to score a touchdown.
46:39The Bill's defense is the obvious weak link here.
46:42I think this could be finally the breakout game for the Rams offense if they can get going.
46:47Can the smaller Rams defense hold up? They're kind of a smaller speedier D.
46:52The Bills are going to want to control the clock.
46:55They're going to want to ground and pound and get out on the front foot.
46:59And obviously the Rams are missing Garrett. And we'll see what Donald can play in this one.
47:04I would lean the Rams here. It's minus three.
47:07I don't really need it three or above. I'm going to mostly just enjoy an awesome game that we'll all be watching.
47:14But we know we're getting a lot of points.
47:16Total's over 54. We know Buffalo's going to get a lot of those points.
47:21They've been scoring. If Buffalo's scoring, Josh Allen is scoring.
47:24Josh Allen, anytime touchdowns, pretty much been a free space this season.
47:27In the four games, two, two, two, and one.
47:30Rushing touchdowns for Josh Allen. And whatever you think about it, whether you think it's a tush push, whether you think it's
47:37a cheat code for MVP, whatever else, we can bet it.
47:40Because I can't believe this line. His touchdown odds are minus 105.
47:44Basically even odds for the week. And I thought, why is this so low?
47:48So you're going to ask me the question. I'll answer it.
47:51Again, I think this is based off his stats from last year.
47:55Last year, he scored a rushing touchdown eight of 16 games.
47:58That's half of them. That's what this line would represent.
48:01That's not how Joe Brady is using him. When they get near, they just punch it in with Allen because it's pretty much unstoppable.
48:08I think also that the Bills are underdogs. It's giving us a little bit of value.
48:13Each week before this one, Allen touchdown is something more like minus 130, minus 135.
48:18So even there, I think we're getting like 30 cents of value.
48:21So Allen touchdown, minus 105. And then the angle I actually started on here, I thought I had something on the books.
48:28You never have something on the books. The books always know the angle that you thought you had on them.
48:34So the Bills have taken the ball on the kickoff, Matt.
48:37Have you noticed that? They win the coin toss.
48:40They take. You're the only team in the league that's consistently doing it.
48:44Everyone else defers. That means the Bills get the ball first because either they get it or the Rams give it to them.
48:51So I was like, okay, here we go, baby.
48:54How do we play this angle? Well, the books already sniffed it out.
48:58Like Bills to score first is minus odds, even though they're the underdog in this matchup.
49:03And the Bills haven't been that good early anyways.
49:05They're one and three in the first quarter. They're two and two at scoring first.
49:10I didn't have a lot of angles I could find on it.
49:13But I will say this one. If they get the ball first and Allen's going to score a touchdown, how about Allen
49:20scores the first touchdown of the game? It's plus 675.
49:23He does have that once so far this season.
49:26And he has the Bills' first touchdown of three of their four games.
49:30He scored in the first half as a runner all four games.
49:33I think there's a little bit of value on it here.
49:37So I keep trying. I've yet to hit in my life a first touchdown bet.
49:41So if you want to skip this one, this might be the one for you to skip.
49:46But, you know, it's Monday night. We're going to watch it.
49:50It'll be fun. Plus 675 for Josh Allen first TD.
49:53Yeah, I mean, look, it's always fun to bet on Josh Allen touchdowns.
49:57That's just like, it's so exciting. Somebody tackle Josh Allen.
50:00Grab an arm, grab a shoe. He just hurtled your corner.
50:03What are you supposed to do? Somebody tackle Josh Allen.
50:06Or he gets away too late. Touchdown. See you next play.
50:09I lean Bills a little bit here. I just, this is one of those where I think that everybody's like, No, the Rams are still good.
50:17The Rams are still good. They're still good. They're going to be as good as we all said they were.
50:23And I just, I'm kind of like, I don't know.
50:26I've seen that. I've seen these hype teams a lot.
50:29I like the Bills, especially with this number creeping.
50:32Final one for you in the sandbox. Yeah. You're taking what has become like one of my favorite teams this season.
50:38The Jets. The Jets. And we were so hopeful we were going to get Jets as a dog here.
50:44We were like Browns mania, Deshaun Watson. Everyone's losing their mind to talk about the adversity he's gone through.
50:50Oh my God. But instead, no, it's, it's the favorite, but we're still getting it at a short number.
50:56And you like the Jets versus the Browns. Yeah.
50:58I mean, how bad are the Browns to be three and one underdogs to the Jets?
51:03You're right. I wanted the underdog number. You know what I mean?
51:07Normally if I don't get the number I want or I kind of missed it, then I'm like, ah, whatever.
51:13And then I just skip it. I'm not skipping this one.
51:16I'm still happy to sell the Browns. Happy to buy on the Jets.
51:20So Jets minus one and a half is the angle.
51:23Pretty quick here. They're both beatable run defenses, but the Browns can't run the ball to save their lives.
51:29Both above average pass defense. So who can pass better?
51:32I don't really know that I love either spot, but I trust Gino.
51:36I trust the Jets a little bit more certainly than Deshaun Watson still.
51:40I don't love the spot for the Jets. That almost kept me off of this.
51:44Their defense was on the field for like the entire game against the Bears last week.
51:49The Browns are an extra rest. So it's not a great spot combination.
51:53That's not enough to get me off the one and a half.
51:57I still make this even factoring that in over a field goal for the Jets.
52:01This is a spot, Matt. This used to be my thing.
52:05It was just like the Jets are just better.
52:07The Jets are better. So that's I'm just taking the Jets.
52:11They're the better team. Matt, the Jets are better.
52:14I'm taking the better team. And I don't think the Browns can punish this tired defense.
52:18So Jets minus one and a half. Yeah, I would be a lot more in on this if they were if they were just dogs.
52:26If they were dogs, I would snatch this up.
52:29Hopefully this moves the other way. I just feel like they're the Jets this season are a team where it's like you
52:35absolutely want them when they're dogs and you absolutely want to stay away from them.
52:40If they're if they're writing momentum or being talked up, you just do not want them.
52:45I get it. I'm just like a little nervous about it now with them being favorites.
52:50I was so hopeful you're going to get like a juicy plus three.
52:53But no, those darn books are always a little bit too ahead of the stupid market.
52:58All right. Long shots and parlays. Let's rip through these.
53:01So you're telling me there's a chance. You are going for an ugly, ugly, ugly game.
53:06And this is like our you and I's biggest dividing point is you are just like adamant.
53:11The Texans are good. Don't don't you pay attention to those stupid win loss numbers.
53:16The Texans are good. And this is going to be an under versus the Titans.
53:20Yeah, I think it's an under and a Texans win.
53:23So that's the angle and I'll play those together.
53:26It's plus 147. I think this is a good get right spot for the Texans because you're playing the Titans.
53:32They don't have to be good. You're still playing the Titans.
53:36D'Amico is calling defensive plays this week. I think he's going to get a lot of good press.
53:41Like Matt, if I was going to take over my old play calling duties, I think I'd do it against the Titans.
53:48That seems like a good spot for me. Like, you know what, guys?
53:52Let me be the savior and step in. I'm just going to call plays this week because we're playing Cam Ward and Brian Dable.
53:59That's going to make me look really good. Titans don't hit the explosives that have hurt this defense.
54:04Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter, they're going to dominate the offensive line.
54:08Houston's offense actually better than the media would have it seem this year.
54:12But this feels like an under all day. A lot of trends.
54:15D'Amico wrote under 62%. Robert Sala unders at a total below 44, 62%.
54:19Looks rainy. It looks windy. Windy under 61% the last five years.
54:23And then the trend between the teams. The Texans have won six of the last seven against the Titans.
54:29All six of those wins, the total has been 37 or less.
54:32That's kind of the Houston thing. When they win, when they're playing Houston ball, their last five wins of any type at 36 points or below.
54:40So keep it easy. Take the under 38 and a half.
54:44Take the Texans money line. Classic Texans win plus 147.
54:47So I don't mind this because you're taking the money line.
54:50Here's the trend for you. After week three, winless teams that are road favorites are 14 and five.
54:55Straight up. So we'll get it done there. Unders are 12 and seven in those spots.
55:00I get it. I'm a little surprised you're not laying the wood.
55:04I'm a little surprised you're not just like, yep, they're going to win and they're going to cover.
55:09I'm a little surprised you're not going the whole way there.
55:13The value, again, I keep, we talked about this with Kravitz on the Tuesday pod.
55:17I keep wanting to, you know, I like the Texans.
55:20You know how I feel about this team, but so does the market and they're not giving us much value.
55:26So I'm creating us some value here. I don't think there's a lot of value on six and a half or seven.
55:33I'll stay away from the spread. Okay. I'm very interested on this next one.
55:37Vikings road trip extravaganza. As you wear your Vikings jersey here on a Thursday, tell me about this one.
55:43So this is a little bit by request. So we have a long time listener, Jeff Cole.
55:48We have mentioned him on this podcast before him and his buddies make an annual road trip to a Vikings game.
55:54This is the game. So we wanted some fun Vikings bets.
55:58Here we go. We took Vikings minus one and a half on the little cats.
56:02We already got that. I don't love the Vikings offensive line injuries, but I don't love the Saints offensive line and Tyler
56:09shock against the floor is defense shock already has 12 sacks and five fumbles in four games.
56:14I think we're going to get some mistakes there.
56:17So we're going to give Jeff a menu of options for the road trip.
56:21You can choose what you like and I'll build you a parlay at the end.
56:26Start with the under under 42 last three Vikings games.
56:29Not a lot of points 25.3 points. And most of that is Will Reichert kicking it in.
56:34Kyler road under 68% shock home under 75% and Kellen Moore under 44 under 67% to numbers like the under.
56:40How about Vikings? The score first in a win plus one 73.
56:43We know about the Saints bad, bad, bad in the first quarter.
56:47So maybe the Vikings get out early and you know, probably three nothing because the main bet here is they're going to
56:54kick the ball through the field goal and score some points.
56:57Will Reichert over seven and a half points at plus 105 in the last 10 Vikings.
57:02It's the last three Vikings games. Here's a crazy stat for you.
57:05The Vikings are three. Will Reichert has 35 points.
57:08The offense has six points and a punt return has six points.
57:12That's the stat. Reichert is doing all their scoring.
57:15He's scored seven, nine, 11 and 15 this year.
57:17The Vikings are going to move the ball some of them.
57:21They're going to stall and you can get fuel goal and you get this bet to cash for us.
57:26So Reichert last nine games, at least seven points in all of them.
57:30We just need one more than that. He's averaging 10 per game.
57:34I even looked up Matt saints are bottom seven.
57:37Most kicker points allowed last year. Like they allow a lot of those.
57:41I even looked for a kicker escalator. Can't find that.
57:44So we'll take Reichert over seven and a half.
57:46I think actually our guy Raheem loves this one also.
57:49I think I've seen them play the record about a couple of times too.
57:54So to Jeff Cole, have a little fun, put it all together.
57:57The parlay Vikings score first. Vikings win under 42 Reichert over seven and a half build the parlay.
58:03It's plus six 50. Look, if you can't have fun with your buddies on the road trip and enjoy a, you know,
58:09a fun long shot, what are we doing here?
58:12Let's have a little fun. You now open the door.
58:15You're going to be getting constant DMS for basically custom parlay bets for road trips.
58:20Brandon realized that this happens to me daily. This is not new.
58:23Brandon is available for your bachelor parties, bachelorette parties, gender reveal parties.
58:27If you want to parlay gender reveal party, make sure to hit that Brandon Anderson in the DMS and to wrap up your long shots here.
58:35You have a plus 2200. Of course it's on a tight end.
58:38Of course it's a tight end, but really, really maybe kind of more of a running back slash fullback this week.
58:45I learned of the existence of San Francisco tight end Braden Willis one week ago, Matt, and now we're betting him to
58:51score a touchdown at 22 to one. I mentioned, I teased this one earlier.
58:56Kyle Juszczyk is out. That is a big miss for the 49ers.
58:59The Niners motion him a lot out of the backfield.
59:02They have him play in the slot sometimes. He's really important to what they do.
59:07And when he missed last week or when he went out in the middle of the game, Braden Willis is suddenly the guy that started to fill in.
59:15He's the third tight end, but they started using him more as like the old H-back, the fullback.
59:21He played 13 snaps, 11 in the opener. Braden Willis is so unknown, Matt, that if you go on his pro football
59:27reference page, it lists his stats defensively. It lists his tackle stats because I'm assuming special teams.
59:33He doesn't have any stats in his career. He's never had a reception.
59:36I don't think he's even had a target as far as I can tell.
59:41Well, I think he's going to get one this week.
59:44Running backs, catch passes against Seattle. I think he's a running back this week, the fullback.
59:49Seattle's already allowed two running back reception touchdowns. Juice had at least two targets each of the last four games against Seattle
59:55and three of the four games this year. Two targets is not much.
59:59We might get one shot at this. We might get a fullback dive.
60:03Kyle Shanahan's creative. Kyle Shanahan, get our guy into the end zone.
60:0722 to one touchdown. Braden Willis. Oh, yes. Stacked.
60:09You got a stacked card this weekend. All right.
60:12It's time for our four square parlay presented by DraftKings.
60:15I'm not trying to be a square. We can play a game.
60:19You pass the time. Nobody even plays four square anymore.
60:22This is how we get ourselves set for the DraftKings pick them contest.
60:26We're going to put together a four square parlay where I put out.
60:30I give Brandon a number of choices of my stupid square picks, and he has to pick four of them to put together in a parlay.
60:38And boy, does he hate him this week. Last week, I was so excited.
60:42I went three and two. I got it. I did it.
60:45I went three and two. I'm going to. No, Brandon went four and one.
60:49He wins the skins. It's four. Oh, I'm never going to get a point on this guy the entire season.
60:55We're literally going to be. You're going to beat me 18 because you have the double point.
61:01You're going to beat me 18. Oh, it's going to be very annoying to me on the season on the contest.
61:07Brandon is 13 and seven. I pulled even at 10 and 10.
61:11Here are your six to seven choices that you get for the four square parlay.
61:15Brandon, I am going oppo Titans plus six and a half.
61:18The Titans have a better defense so far statistically than the Houston Texans.
61:22I understand waiting it by opponent. If the Titans are as bad to be six and a half at home, they should still be below the Texans.
61:31They are too close, both offensively and defensively. The Texans are the team this season that all the smarties are like, no, they're good.
61:38No, I refuse. Uh, uh. And I'm, I'm sorry.
61:41Titans six and a half is too many points.
61:43This is you're telling me an Owen 14 would be minus 11 at home.
61:48No, under no circumstances. Titans plus six and a half.
61:51Seahawks minus two and a half. We talked about that one.
61:54I'm taking chargers plus three and a half. I don't think the Broncos deserve this kind of consideration.
61:59I don't care that Sean Payton's taken over play calling duties from David Webb.
62:04I do not care. Chargers plus three and a half.
62:07Colts plus two and a half. Um, this one makes me real nervous with the, the London stuff.
62:12I'm still putting it in there. Dolphins plus seven and a half.
62:16I think that line's also a little wrong. Giants plus three and a half and lions minus four and a half.
62:22I did manage to get two favorites on here this week.
62:25So I'm proud of myself. Okay. Titans, Seahawks, chargers, Colts, dolphins, giants, lions, make a parlay out of those ones, mister.
62:32All right. So here we go with the four square parlay.
62:35I put in my notes. How do you manage to pick the worst sides imaginable?
62:40And you said, it's because it's what I'm picking.
62:42They're my picks. I go, okay. I hate these picks.
62:45Why did you give me this menu? Let's go giants plus three and a half.
62:50You and I are in that one together. We're in it on chargers plus three and a half as well.
62:56They're going to be a contest pick for me.
62:59They were my last cut from the podcast choices.
63:01I almost took it similar to the Houston one, like the seven, 10 split chargers to cover in an under a lot of under trends on that one.
63:10Chargers got nobody left. Everyone is hurt. And that and the Davis web thing threw me off a little bit, but I'll
63:16take them for the contest here over a field goal.
63:19So giants chargers, both three and a half. I will take the lions at four and a half.
63:25We talked about that briefly earlier. And then just because I'm out of options here, I'm going to take the Colts at
63:32two and a half because I do find a little bit of value there, even though I don't love the spot for them.
63:39So giants chargers lions and Colts plus 1250. That is this week's draft Kings four square parlay.
63:44All right. My, my contest plays for the week are Titans plus six and a half Seahawks minus two and a half
63:50chargers plus three and a half giants plus three and a half and lions minus four and a half.
63:56Brandon, what are you putting in for the contest for your five?
64:00So if you're wondering here, RIP to the Ravens, which is who I like to pick here.
64:05But remember these lines lock early on Wednesday. So if you want to pick the Ravens here, you get Ravens minus two and a half.
64:12That is the line available to us in this contest.
64:15I thought about it, Matt. I thought about just being like, no, I am not picking that you all pick the Falcons.
64:22Enjoy your CLV. If it was late in the season and I was a little behind, I'd like the game theory of that.
64:29But it's not late in the season. I'm just going to let everyone else lose that one.
64:34I still like the Ravens. I think everyone can lose their Atlanta pick.
64:38I will take giants and chargers, same as you.
64:41And I will go jets minus two and a half.
64:44We talked about that one. Rams minus two and a half.
64:47We're going to blow the key. I'll sneak a little value in there.
64:51And then Packers plus two and a half. I wish we got the three on that one, but I didn't love the choices here.
64:58So giants, chargers, jets, Rams, and Packers. I'm going to bet Packers.
65:02They're not in my contest, but I was close.
65:05I like that Packers plus two and a half quite a bit as well.
65:09A lot of good choices this week. All right.
65:12That's your four square parlay presented by DraftKings, which is going to be giants, chargers, lions, colts, all on the spread plus 1250 at DraftKings.
65:19Don't forget to download the DraftKings sports app and use promo code action network.
65:24When you sign up DraftKings, the crown is yours.
65:26Let's look ahead. Just give it a shot. How about next week?
65:30I got my mindset on you. I got my mindset on you.
65:34All right. Before we get out of here, hit me with a look ahead for week six.
65:39And you are once again going to go back to the Niners.
65:42You're going to fade those commanders. You like the Monday Night Football play for the look ahead.
65:47Yeah. All the way to the end of week six.
65:50The last one, Niners minus seven against the commanders.
65:53Again, I'm just taking the team I like way better here.
65:57I think Washington is weirdly overpriced in the market right now.
66:00Daniels is back, but will he be back for that one?
66:03Will he stay healthy enough to make it to that game?
66:07And through that game, we'll see. Talk about all those other Washington injuries.
66:1023 guys on their injury list so far this week.
66:13Washington has lost twice by 17 already. I think they lose to the Giants if they do that.
66:19This line is definitely not staying at seven. And I like the Niners even if it does because they have wins by 10, by 20, and by 22.
66:27That covers seven quite easily. The other one was by six, so you'd lose it by one.
66:33But in that one, they had a 17-point lead.
66:35They had multiple injuries after that. They still led by nine with 30 seconds left.
66:40And then the Cardinals kicked a field goal that ended up being meaningless.
66:44Otherwise, they would have covered this line all the games this year.
66:47It's already seven and a half and multiple books.
66:50I make this closer to 10. I have Niners nine and a half.
66:54Give me Niners minus seven. Well, I don't think it will be by next Monday.
66:59That'll do it here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week 5 episode of Brandon's Playground presented by DraftKings.
67:05Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and follow Brandon for any more picks you might be adding into the app before Sunday.
67:13He's got a lot of bets here and a lot of numbers, so you make sure you can get the clarity over at the Action Network app.
67:21Again, you've got to have the whole meal. You don't get to pick and choose.
67:25This is not a la carte. You've got to take the whole sides on whatever angle he's taking.
67:31You can also find quick slips for his plays at actionnetwork.com slash bet now.
67:35There's a link in the podcast description. If you want instant notifications when Brandon and other action experts track their picks, go
67:42to actionnetwork.com slash pro and use promo code pod20 for $20 off a year of Action Pro.
67:47Thanks for listening. If you guys happen to like the NBA, make sure to check out Buckets as we start our NBA
67:54Futures preview content over there with Best Bets. Enjoy the NFL slate and good luck with all your bets this weekend.
68:00Get in the playground. This is the Action Network podcast.
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68:10I'm Fox Sports reporter Jenny Taft. And I'm former U.S.
68:13Women's National Soccer Team player Carly Lloyd. And on our new podcast, Whatever It Takes, nothing is off limits.
68:19I played with players that didn't truly love the game.
68:22I found the love with the ball at my foot.
68:25I don't care what I'm being asked to do at Fox.
68:28I'm going to go get some reps and love it and embrace it.
68:32Listen to Whatever It Takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
68:39The miles change how you move, but more importantly, they change how you show up for your life.
68:45I'm Emily Abadi. On the Hurdle with Emily Abadi podcast, I sit down with elite athletes, record holders, coaches, and everyday runners
68:51to unpack the mindset behind pushing through when things get tough.
68:55Because the discipline, grace, and grit you build out there on the pavement, that's what helps you show up as your best self everywhere else.
69:02I just love to say I never know who's watching.
69:05So you want to make sure you you through and through and you just stay true to who you are.
69:11Listen to Hurdle with Emily Abadi on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
69:17Hi, it's Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. This season, we've got some awesome guests ready to dole out advice.
69:23Guests like Adam Scott. How does that make you feel?
69:26That I look like Tom Cruise? First of all, do you think?
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69:35I think I started this interview. Thank you. Portia Williams, Sarah Bareilles, Tiffany Haddish, Anna Faris, Kerry Russell, Kristen Johnston, and more.
69:42Listen to Dear Chelsea on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
69:46There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself.
69:50Get Worse with Kyle Pru is not one of those podcasts.
69:54So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptides, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your bed, or getting closure,
70:00then I would humbly recommend other podcasts. If you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got
70:07a little something something for a dastardly individual like you.
70:10Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
70:16Hey, what's up? I'm Tony Gonzalez. And I'm October Gonzalez.
70:19But you can call me Toby. We want you to join us on our new podcast, No Safe Words, with October and
70:26Tony Gonzalez, where we get real about marriage, parenthood, sex, divorce, and all the nitty-gritty stuff we all think about, but just don't say it out loud.
70:34You're probably just going to meet some rich guy, and he's going to whisk you away.
70:39And, oh. Well, this is awkward. Listen to No Safe Words with October and Tony Gonzalez on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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