NFL Touchdown Show | Week 5

Barner is heavily involved in the Seahawks' red zone offense at plus 310; inside the five-yard line he has two targets and one rush attempt (which resulted in a touchdown), and inside the 20 he has five targets. He's also capable of scoring on the tush push play. Last year he had six receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown, making him a huge part of the red zone offense. With Seahawks left tackle Duane Price now on injured reserve, the running game may not be as efficient, forcing more reliance on the passing game where Barner is the primary target.

The source targets Austin Hooper at plus 900 for anytime touchdown against the Ravens; Hooper has played at least 23% of snaps every week this season and is tied with running backs for most red zone targets (one) despite the Falcons' heavy run-first offense through Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr., making him a value play.

The source explicitly fades Bijan Robinson for anytime touchdown betting, noting that after his recent strong performances, the market has priced him too low and it will be hard to find value on Falcons touchdown scores if Bijan continues to score on every other carry.

The source explicitly avoids Blake Corum for anytime touchdown betting in the Bills-Rams game, noting this is one of those spots where he should not be targeted despite being his preferred running back in other contexts.

Strange is a strong anytime touchdown candidate at plus 290 against the Eagles in London. He had seven catches for 95 yards last week without scoring, but his underlying usage has been super steady and solid week-to-week; he's the top tight end in the Jaguars' offense. The Eagles could be without both starting linebackers (Zach Bond and Jihad Campbell, both questionable), which should make Strange a focal point in the passing offense.

Brevin Jordan is a boom-or-bust long-shot anytime touchdown play at 25-to-1 against the Titans. The third-string tight end on the Texans made his debut last week against the Cowboys after missing the majority of the last two seasons with knee and other injuries. The Texans love him for his leadership and toughness; he scored three touchdowns in his rookie year and had a 76-yard touchdown against the Browns in the 2024 playoffs. He has two targets on four routes so far this year. If the Texans get in the red zone (expected against this Titans defense) and he's on the field, he's likely to get targeted.

The source targets Brian Robinson Jr. at plus 240 for anytime touchdown against the Ravens; the source notes the market is aware of Robinson after his three-touchdown game on Monday Night Football, but argues he is still underpriced given his role taking over the Algier role at the goal line to keep Bijan fresh, his strong recent play, and the Falcons' extremely run-heavy offense with Michael Penix under center, which could lead to multiple running back touchdowns this season.

Bowers is heavily involved in the Raiders offense and the clear number one option; in two games played, he has 14 targets and 11 targets with a touchdown in each game. He's being absolutely force-fed by the offense under new head coach Kubiak and quarterback Kirk Cousins, both of whom are competent offensive minds. At plus 145, there's value on a player getting this level of volume and red zone involvement.

Bowers has four end zone targets through two games, which already leads the Raiders; this level of red zone volume is unlikely to stop given his dominance in the offense. Against the Patriots, who may be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez again, the Raiders' passing game should have favorable matchup conditions.

The source targets Dalton Kincaid at around 2-1 (plus 200) for anytime touchdown against the Rams; despite not scoring since week one, the source argues this is a spot where he would be more effective given the Rams' zone coverage and single-high safety looks, which fit Kincaid's wheelhouse.

Cooper is a strong anytime touchdown bet at plus 460 after taking over Devonta Smith's role as the Z receiver in the Eagles' offense. He had a fluky touchdown against the Titans and impressive touchdown catches against the Rams (including one where he mossed the defender). He was A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith's backup last year but didn't get a real chance until week 18. In a game where the Eagles are seven to eight-point underdogs and likely to pass more, Cooper has a good chance to find the end zone again.

Maye is being underpriced at plus 450 for a rushing touchdown against the Raiders; he has 23 rushing attempts so far this season and two of the Patriots' four rushing attempts within the five-yard line have been his. The market's hate on Maye has gotten too extreme after last week's loss, causing an overcorrection in his pricing. He's a very good rushing quarterback who shouldn't be priced this high in a favorable matchup.

The source targets Isaac Guerendo at around plus 425 to plus 450 for anytime touchdown as a value play against the Cardinals; Guerendo has three red zone targets and two end zone targets so far with no touchdowns yet, and the source notes his highlight-reel touchdown catch ability from his rookie year when he scored six touchdowns, mostly on highlight grabs.

Isaiah Likely is significantly underpriced at plus 245 (or potentially higher) for an anytime touchdown against the Giants despite not scoring since week one. He has six red zone targets on the year and a 29% target share. Potentially without Mark Andrews (Neighbors), Likely should get a ton of volume in this matchup. The rain forecast for the game is not expected to significantly impact the passing game.

The source targets Isaiah Likely at plus 245 for anytime touchdown; the source expresses confusion about why Likely is priced so high, noting he is by far the go-to target in the Ravens' passing offense and should not be priced at that level, with no concern about rain affecting the matchup.

Isaiah Williams is a strong anytime touchdown play at plus 450 for the Jets against the Browns. He was bet last week at five-to-one and rewarded with a 58-yard touchdown bomb over the top. The Jets have significant injuries piling up at pass catcher (Adonai Mitchell not practicing again this week; Mason Taylor might return but uncertain). Williams has been running routes on 90% of dropbacks in each of the last two games. He lines up in the slot 53% of the time so far, which should help him avoid the Denzel Ward matchup and likely avoid coverage from the Browns' top corner. Last week the Browns gave up a 12-yard touchdown out of the slot to Roman Wilson, suggesting vulnerability there.

Jaden Daniels is a solid anytime touchdown bet at plus 250 against the Giants despite not scoring yet this season. He has eight rushing touchdowns in fewer than 23 full games played in the NFL, making him a great threat with his legs. The Commanders' injury report is extremely long, leaving few other viable options. Daniels is likely to wear an arm brace to prevent further dislocations but should still be able to contribute.

The source targets Justin Jefferson for anytime touchdown against the Saints; Jefferson is returning from injury after practicing Wednesday and Thursday with intent to play, and the source projects he will see around 30% target share with Kyler Murray adding another element to get open downfield; additionally, this is the first time the Vikings have played in New Orleans since Jefferson's hometown, providing extra motivation.

The source targets Khalil Shakir at plus 270 for anytime touchdown against the Rams; Shakir leads the Bills in red zone targets with six so far this year, and with Moore doubtful to play, Shakir should see significant playing time (76% snaps last week, 73% the week before), making him the number one option outside of Kincaid in the passing offense.

Kyler Murray is a strong anytime touchdown play at plus 475 for the Vikings against the Saints. He hasn't been using his legs as much with the Vikings after getting hit on his second dropback in his debut, but he's had a few games to get comfortable in the new scheme. He's expected to start leaning on his legs more, especially in the red zone, as Kevin O'Connell likely wants him to scramble more. The Saints have faced three mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and others) this year, with Lamar managing only 34 rushing yards on four attempts, making it hard to assess their scramble defense. At plus 475 in an indoor matchup, the price is attractive.

The source targets Kyron Williams to score the first touchdown at plus 500 against the Bills; the source notes Williams is a touchdown machine who typically gets opening drive to himself and in big games the Rams lean on him even more, with potential to be in goal-line packages for the first two drives.

Treadwell has been the Alec Pierce replacement since Pierce went down, running around 75% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks; he's been making huge catches at the end of games to help the Colts win. Keenan Allen's potential return won't impact his usage since Treadwell runs deep routes while Allen, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren operate underneath. Darius Slayton remains a healthy scratch, suggesting the Colts are pleased with Treadwell's performance in the role.

Burden is at plus 240 and has 32% first-read target share, leading the Bears with six red zone targets; he's playing the Amon Ross-Ainth Brown role in Ben Johnson's offense. If the Bears' run game becomes less efficient and they're forced to throw more, Burden is the primary target. The Packers' secondary is dealing with injuries, and there's added motivation given the rivalry smack talk between Burden and Packers cornerback Kayshawn Nixon.

The source targets Mark Andrews at around plus 260 for anytime touchdown against the Falcons with Tyler Huntley starting for the Ravens; the source argues the price is too high given that Huntley has targeted tight ends frequently in his career and Andrews remains a focal point of the passing game, especially near the goal line.

Harrison is being targeted in the anytime touchdown market as the source's pick over Michael Wilson, despite Wilson having more convincing receiver metrics. The source took Harrison last week in their anytime touchdown preview and is returning to him this week.

The source targets Marvin Harrison Jr. at plus 300 or better for anytime touchdown against the Lions secondary, noting all Cardinals pass catchers are alive to score; the source also mentions trade speculation around Harrison with a projected return of only a fourth-round pick, suggesting the Cardinals may want to showcase him more to increase his trade value before the deadline.

Evans is at plus 210, which is historically high odds for him; the last time he closed with odds over plus 200 was in the post-Tom Brady, pre-Baker Mayfield era. Since Baker Mayfield arrived, Evans has typically been around plus 180 at best. At plus 210 in a high-scoring matchup against Seattle where the 49ers' offense is likely to put up points regardless of the Seahawks' strong defense, this is excellent value. Evans is a massive red zone threat who will get multiple balls thrown to him in the red zone and can go up against any cornerback.

The source highlights Mike Evans at plus 210 anytime touchdown odds as a solid value bet in San Francisco's offense, which is described as probably even better than anything the Buccaneers have shown; the source suggests you almost have to bet on him at that price.

Mike Gesicki is a strong anytime touchdown play at plus 500 for the Dolphins against the Bengals despite the Dolphins' terrible offense. Tight ends have been a great matchup against the Bengals (gave up 16 touchdowns last year and several this season). Gesicki did not get a single target last week against the Vikings, but he's running routes at the second-highest rate on the team (only behind Gordon). He has a 10% target share and two red zone targets so far this season (second only to Malik Washington on the team). Without A-Chan in the lineup, the Dolphins will be forced to pass more, making this a favorable matchup at plus 500.

Mitchell Tinsley is a strong anytime touchdown play at plus 310 for the Bengals against the Dolphins, especially if Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins don't play. He had two touchdowns last year in a very tiny role with just 24 overall targets, functioning as a jump-ball threat in the red zone (Mike Evans-type role). If Chase and/or Higgins miss the game, Tinsley will get significantly more playing time and volume. In the two games last year when Jamar missed one and T. Higgins missed one, Tinsley played double the amount of snaps and routes run.

With Michael Pittman ruled out, Freiermuth gets a boost in snaps and targets; he has a similar route tree to Pittman and should see extra red zone opportunities. More importantly, Freiermuth is the main ball carrier in the Colts' tush push play now that Connor Hayward has moved to the Raiders, making him a threat for a one-yard touchdown run that the market isn't pricing in enough; the source has this closer to plus 260 in their model versus the current plus 300 market price.

The source targets Pat Freiermuth at plus 300 for anytime touchdown; Freiermuth gets a boost with Michael Pittman officially ruled out, has the second-most red zone targets just behind Jalen Warren, and Aaron Rodgers typically loves targeting his top tight end; the source also notes Freiermuth is the main ball carrier in the Eagles' tush push and could score a one-yard touchdown run in addition to pass-catching upside.

Tony Pollard is a strong anytime touchdown play at plus 250 against the Titans despite the Texans' low offensive output this season. He's third in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line this year already, and among six running backs with 10-plus carries inside the 10, he's the only one without at least two touchdowns in that spot. The Titans' defense allowed Javante Williams to run for three touchdowns last week, making this a favorable matchup. Pollard could also be considered for first touchdown.

McBride has been completely priced out of the anytime touchdown market; he can no longer be gotten at anything over plus 120, making him no longer a viable bet at current odds.

Trey McBride has been completely priced out of anytime touchdown betting; the source notes you can no longer get him at anything better than plus 120, making him unavailable as a value play.

Franklin should see the biggest boost in playing time and usage if Pat Surtain is ruled out with an ankle injury; he's been a downfield threat for the Broncos. At plus 650, he's worth a play if Surtain is out, as he could connect with quarterback Bo Nix for a long touchdown, especially given they were college roommates.

Kraft finally scored his first touchdown in week four and is poised for a run; his snaps and routes run have increased each week as he's gotten healthier. In week four, he was targeted three times in the red zone with two in the end zone, catching one for a touchdown. At plus 250, this is too high of odds given the volume in the red zone; last year when he scored seven touchdowns over six games, odds never got better than plus 150. With favorable matchups coming (Cowboys, Panthers, Lions all bottom-10 in DVOA vs. tight ends), if Kraft scores this week, plus 200 odds likely won't return for a month.