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0:17I'm your host, Gilles Gallant, and the Touchdown Show is back for NFL Week 4.
0:21And I'm back with Sean Koerner and Grant Neifer, and we're going to get into some Week 4 matchups, find some anytime touchdown scores.
0:28Now, if you want to tail any of the touchdown bets we give out today, easiest way to do it, the quick slip links.
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1:17Okay, gentlemen, Week 4. We're going to jump into these matchups.
1:20We've got a bunch of games, some really good matchups here, and we start with London.
1:25Our first London game of the year. We have the Colts taking on the Washington Commanders.
1:30Grant, you are on that beat. What did you pick for touchdowns for Colts Commanders?
1:34Yeah, so on the Colts side of things, I'm going with Danny Dimes, plus 400 at the moment.
1:40I was a little bit worried, obviously, coming off of his injury from last year, how much he was going to run,
1:46but he has three carries in each of the last two games.
1:50I think he has two within the 20-yard line so far this year.
1:54So he's still willing to run. Historically, he's been a very good runner.
1:58He has 20 rushing touchdowns in his career in 86 games.
2:01So didn't love a lot of other guys on the Colts in this spot here, so rolling Danny Dimes on the other side.
2:08However, I love Scary Terry to score a touchdown.
2:11You get him at plus 250. Last two weeks, nine targets each week.
2:15Obviously had a touchdown last week against my Seahawks, which I'm still very sad about.
2:19But he's been getting a decent amount of volume with Mariota at the helm.
2:24This offense is actually doing not terrible with Mariota at the helm here.
2:28So getting the guy who's getting the largest amount of volume at plus 255 in this spot here seems drastically too odd.
2:34Yeah, I mean, a wide receiver one, Terry McLaurin.
2:37And the other thing, too, is they are running a ton of man coverage now with Sauce Gardner, but they're kind of throwing him around.
2:45They're not keeping him on one side. I think Terry is in line to have a big game.
2:50Marcus Mariota, it's not that much of a drop-off as much as we think when it comes to him and Jane Daniels.
2:57I still would prefer Daniels, but Mariota is very serviceable as a thrower.
3:01And then Danny Dimes, this is the kind of the time I think we started wanting to invest in him.
3:07You don't want to really look at him in week one and week two where he's still kind of getting back familiar,
3:13you know, coming off of the Achilles. This is kind of a good spot here at four to one playing over in London.
3:20Okay, I am up next, and I've got a pretty decent matchup.
3:24This matchup was a crazy ending last year. Rams taking on the Eagles.
3:28Now, I have been very vocal about disrespectful odds, especially with certain players, like a Trey McBride or, you know, Justin Jefferson.
3:34Grant, you know what I'm talking about. The first couple of weeks where it was just out of control.
3:40They were putting him at like plus 170, plus 180.
3:43But I think we're there now with Jalen Hurts because against the Bears, he had the highest touchdown odds that he has
3:50had to score in a game since 2021. That includes 81 game span between playoffs and regular season.
3:55Now, he ended up scoring against the Bears, and he probably could have scored twice had Nick Sirianni actually managed his timeouts
4:02better and maybe just gave it a little bit extra time to get him out of the blue tent.
4:08And then with Hurts, now I'm seeing the odds around plus 175, so they're up a little bit higher again this game.
4:14But you're getting a quarterback who has been routinely in the top 10 and carries inside the 10-yard line, averaging nearly nine
4:21touchdowns a year since his rookie season. And this Rams defense, the strength of their defense is right now until Miles Garrett
4:28gets back, is kind of through their secondary. secondary, and I think that's kind of going to be able to aid Jalen
4:34Hurts to be able to run for a touchdown.
4:37I mean, we watched Bo Nix run for a touchdown against this defense last week.
4:42So I'm probably going to be laddering him for two touchdowns as well.
4:46It's around 15-1. But for his anytime touchdown for the show, I'm taking that at plus 175.
4:51Now, on the Rams side, this is kind of just a next man up bet, but I'm going to take Davis Allen.
4:57He's around 10-1, 11-1. Terrence Ferguson's probably going to be out.
5:01Colby Parkinson is dealing with a shoulder injury. I think he's going to play.
5:05And then Tyler Higby isn't exactly the picture of perfect health either.
5:09So the fact that they still like to run those two, three tight end sets, I think Davis is going to get
5:15a little bit of an opportunity boost here in this game.
5:19I mean, we saw last year he was a goal line merchant.
5:22He scored in the first two games of the year when they were still dealing with some injuries to open the season.
5:29So I like Tyler Higby, but again, at plus 310, I would just rather go for a long shot in this spot,
5:36just given how steamed the Ram touchdown scores are at the top, if Pukunakua especially is coming back.
5:41So give me Davis Allen at 10-1 to score a touchdown on this Eagles defense.
5:46Okay, we're moving to the next game now, and this is Packers Buccaneers.
5:50Sean, you are up, and you've got another game with a backup quarterback.
5:54Yeah, so I'm going to go with the backup quarterback to score here.
5:57Jalen Daniels at plus 380. He's an undrafted rookie out of Kansas who's going to be making his first start here with Baker Mayfield out.
6:05But he had a really solid preseason. That's kind of why he won the QB2 battle.
6:10Already helped me win money. I took him in the second half of one of their games knowing he'd get most of the snaps.
6:17He looked excellent. My comp for him is essentially a taller, a 6'1 Kyler Murray.
6:22So we'll see how he's going to hold up against the starting NFL defense, even if it is the Packers.
6:28But he's going to be a quarterback who just scrambles a ton.
6:31He has massive rushing upside. And just given it's his first game, I'm expecting him to lean on that even more.
6:38Maybe they even designed some run plays for him.
6:41But I think that's kind of how they're going to kind of break him in here in his debut.
6:46And the market's too sharp these days. So, you know, his rushing prop's already pushing 40 yards, which is right about where I have it.
6:54But I think his touchdown market is kind of overlooking him a bit.
6:58I mean, 380 is pretty low. But again, I'm projecting him closer to plus 320.
7:02And I think the time to kind of invest in him in this market is now before he does score.
7:08And everybody kind of sees him running wild out there.
7:11So, yeah, give me Daniels at plus 380 here.
7:14No, no. Sorry, before you give your Tampa Bay pick, when you said the comp is a taller Kyler Murray, the first
7:21thing I thought was like, that's a quarterback that could take over the league.
7:25Like if Kyler was just three inches taller, we might be talking about an MVP candidate.
7:30But just that's always been the issue is he can't see over the old line.
7:34Well, that's true. I didn't think of that. Yeah, if Kyler were taller, we'd be talking about him a little bit differently.
7:41And his arm talent's decent. Like he can make all the throws.
7:45I just don't know what his decision making is going to be or how he's going to look against a starting defense.
7:51But again, like he has massive rushing upside. So at least when it comes to touchdowns, I think that's where he's going to be sneaky.
7:59Yeah. So, I mean, at plus 380, love the value, especially if you're showing around plus 320 is fair.
8:05Getting in at plus 380, I like that spot here.
8:08What are we doing for the Bucs then now?
8:10Or pardon me, the Packers now. Packers. Yeah, I'm going to go with the random ass long shot here.
8:16J. Michael Sturdivant at 14-1. Just sounds like the ultimate troll touchdown where everyone's going to go, who the hell is that guy?
8:23If they pan to the Packers game on red zone and he scores.
8:27But let me just tell you a little bit about him.
8:30He's also an undrafted rookie out of Florida. Was a bit of a surprise making the 53-man roster.
8:36But with Jaden Reed out indefinitely, he's part of the wide receiver rotation right now.
8:40Had a 33% routes run last week. Wouldn't be shocked if that goes up this week.
8:45I know they're mixing in Bo Melton and Sky Moore.
8:48But J. Michael has sneaky upside. He gives, like he's a taller receiver.
8:52He's 6'3". He's pretty fast. He had a 4.440.
8:55He gives me like A.D. Mitchell or like a Timu George Pickens vibes.
8:59And just the way Jordan Love's playing right now.
9:02Kind of like Jameis Winston where he was just chucking it up.
9:05I would not be shocked if he does target J.
9:08Michael downfield or in the end zone the next couple weeks.
9:12So I think, you know, getting him at 14-1 right now is kind of the time to do that.
9:17Again, I gave out Matthew Hidner 18-1 where the very next week he scored.
9:22I never know when the hell these random guys are going to score.
9:26But I think while we're getting 14-1 odds on him, while J.
9:29reads out is kind of the time to invest in him.
9:33So yeah, give me J. Michael at 14-1 here.
9:35See, that's not bad at all. I thought you were going to go crazy with like Josh Wiley or something like, you
9:42know, like a 28-1 or something crazy. Or remember like last year we used to take Fitzpatrick, the 6'7 guy, but he's on the Browns now.
9:50But just we used to take John Fitzpatrick as a lot just as that big body target in the end zone.
9:56Love that pick, getting it at 14-1. Okay, let's move now to Jets-Bears.
10:00Grant, you've got this game. What do you like for touchdown scorers in this one?
10:05Yeah, starting off on the Bears side of things, going with Kalief Raymond to score a touchdown.
10:10You can find it plus 370. Odds seem way too high.
10:13I mean, 9-5-7 targets so far in three games this season.
10:17Played more snaps than Burden so far this season.
10:19He was in for 75% snaps last week. Case Keenum obviously had a good connection with him.
10:24Who knows if Keenum's going to start or Bajan's going to start.
10:28But I think regardless, he should be in for a decent amount of volume.
10:32Has a red zone target in each of the three games this season.
10:36He's currently second behind Burden in red zone targets.
10:39So everything's kind of pointing to him continuing to be a big part of this offense.
10:44So I don't really see a reason why he should price double what Burden is and over what Odunze is.
10:50So I'm rolling with him here. And I think that he's just a bit too underpriced.
10:55On the other side, Gino Smith to score a touchdown.
10:58Gino has 13 rushing tips on the year. The Bears allowed five touchdowns to opposing QBs last season.
11:03I've already given up one to both Bryce Young and Jalen Hurts so far this season.
11:08And I don't really see a reason why this line is nearly this high.
11:12Gino's a big part of this offense. He's dropping back a lot here.
11:16We don't know if A.D. Mitchell is going to end up playing here.
11:20We don't know if Sadiq's going to end up playing here.
11:23So he could be forced to do a bit more with his legs.
11:27And we don't know if Hall's going to be playing here.
11:31So a lot of injuries are kind of making this game a little bit tougher to figure out how it's going to go.
11:38And I mean, I think regardless, if all of them played, I think this line is a bit too high.
11:44But especially if Hall's out and if some of his other weapons are out, he could be forced to scramble a bit more.
11:51And he can do it with his legs. So plus 900 is just a bit too high for me in all circumstances.
11:57Yeah, the Gino Smith one reeks of a tush push.
12:00Or of just him, like, you know, quarterback sneak at the goal line.
12:04I just wanted to compare because, I mean, Brees Hall right now, his odds are pretty much off the board, across the board.
12:11And Braylon Allen all the way down to, like, plus 130 now at this point too.
12:16So, yeah, I think the Gino angle is a smart pick there.
12:20And then Kalief Raymond, you want to talk about involvement.
12:23Like, last year, what is it, 30 total targets in 15 games?
12:26He's got 21 and 3 this year. So, massive, massive increase.
12:30And just being a Ben Johnson disciple as well, I think that obviously helps and sees why he's being so heavily utilized in this offense.
12:37So, solid looks by you, Grant. Kalief Raymond and Gino Smith for the Jets and Bears.
12:42I'm up next. I have got the Patriots-Bills game.
12:45This one might have been the hardest one that I did this week because I wanted to try and find some decent touchdown odds on the Patriots side.
12:53And the only one that I was really, truly showing value on is Drake May at this point.
12:59He's around plus 500. The Patriots offense in general just through three games has just been pitiful in the past run game.
13:06The fact that Drake May technically leads the team with two red zone carries through three games should tell you all you
13:12need to know about how poor this offense has been going.
13:16But, again, the Pats need this game. They just need this game to go well on offense.
13:21The magic of that deep ball is kind of just not there yet, or at least it hasn't been recaptured this year.
13:27So, I don't really love the idea of picking any of these downfield targets for the Patriots.
13:33So, I think Drake May at 5-1 when you're getting a quarterback who is third amongst all quarterbacks in total scrambles.
13:39I think that's still a decent price when you get there.
13:42Now, this one is a little bit higher than 5-1, but it's asking for twice as much.
13:47Josh Allen, I'm going to take him for two touchdowns.
13:50This is a pretty square prop for me. I'll fully admit it.
13:54But through three weeks, if you have bet his two-touchdown prop, you're the one laughing in my face because he's done it in each game already this year.
14:03Six total rushing touchdowns. And you can tell now with Joe Brady calling the shots, like the Bills, they do not mess around near the goal line.
14:11And they just let Allen lead the way. And this Patriots defense, it remains to be seen what happens by the time we get to Sunday.
14:19But through Thursday, showing some injuries on the injury report for a couple of key guys.
14:23And their defense isn't really quite built to stop a power run game like the Bills have been using, at least what
14:30we've seen so far through three weeks. But if you want to take Keon Coleman, go for it.
14:36Again, I took him last week. He got tackled at the one-yard line.
14:39Classic me. But I just think if we're witnessing kind of this generational run right now by Josh Allen, en route to
14:46another MVP, we're going to see probably another two-touchdown passing, two-touchdown rushing style of game.
14:51So at 6-1, I think this is the best time to get it right now because I do think if we see
14:57this one more time, we're probably not going to get over 5-1 odds for the rest of the year.
15:03So I'm going to take Josh Allen for two touchdowns at 6-1 and Drake May for a touchdown at 5-1.
15:09All right, Sean, you've got this next one. This is actually a low-key, a really fun matchup.
15:14It's the Jaguars and the Bengals. What did you come up with for this one?
15:19Yeah, so I have a Myers and Myers parlay or Myers squared, whatever you want to call it.
15:24But first one's obviously Jacoby Myers at plus 255.
15:27And, you know, the Jaguars have been one of many teams embracing, you know, more heavy tight end personnel this year.
15:33And they kind of hinted at that when they drafted two tight ends in the draft this year when they already have Brenton Strange.
15:41Very talented tight end already. So they're going a lot more heavy personnel where it's really just Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington dominating the wide receiver snaps.
15:49With Brian Thomas Jr., you know, just having way less of a role.
15:53He only had a 40% routes run rate last week.
15:56Might not even be healthy. So now's the kind of time to buy in on Jacoby Myers, who has two touchdowns through three games.
16:03He's never really been, you know, a high touchdown kind of guy.
16:07But just given his role and just how much he's getting targeted while on the field in the red zone, I think
16:13this is going to be pretty sticky. So I like getting Jacoby here at plus 255.
16:18And the Bengals defense, they look great the first couple of games.
16:22But last week we kind of saw them turn into the old Bengals against the Steelers.
16:27So I think this is a sneaky good matchup for the Jaguars passing offense here.
16:31And then on the other side, I'm going to go with the other lesser known Myers, Dante Myers at plus 450.
16:38If you remember, I gave out Colby Young 18-1 in my lotto parlay last week.
16:42And I expected him and Myers to kind of tag team the Yosevosh role with him on IR.
16:48But Young got targeted on the very first play of the game.
16:51They schemed up a pass to Young. I thought he was going to have a big game.
16:56He got hurt on the very first catch. So he was done for the day.
17:01So Myers operated as the clear number three receiver.
17:04Basically just took over Yosevosh's role. This week they're calling up Mitchell Tinsley, who I think will step up as well.
17:10But I like Myers. I think he's sneaky. They haven't really had a true slot receiver since Tyler Boyd.
17:16And I think he kind of fills that role.
17:19So he could be kind of like the Tyler Boyd to go along with Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins.
17:24So I think he's going to have a pretty big role this week.
17:28Don't love the price here at plus 450. But I still think there's some value here with him probably being out there around 60% of Joe Burrow's dropbacks.
17:37So anytime somebody's going to be out there that many dropbacks in this passing offense, I'm usually going to be interested.
17:43Yeah, you can really tell with the Jaguars how much Jacoby Myers has just kind of leveled out this passing offense for them.
17:50Since his arrival last year, they've just been much more steady and consistent on that front.
17:55And then, of course, you look at Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins' touchdown odds after both scoring last week.
18:01They're around like plus 120 or minus odds, right?
18:03So we're looking at the wide receiver three in this spot.
18:07If Dante Myers is going to jump in at plus 450, it's not too bad.
18:11But you did bring up Mitchell Tinsley. He is somebody that I have been a big fan of in this offense.
18:18But only when it's usually when Tee or Jamar miss time because then he'll replace them one for one in a sense.
18:24But he is around 10 to one right now.
18:27But yeah, I prefer the Dante Myers angle here just given where we're at.
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19:42DraftKings, the crown is yours. We are back here with the Touchdown Show for Week 4.
19:47We continue going through the slate to find the best anytime touchdown bets, and we are now looking at the Titans visiting the Ravens.
19:54Grant, you've got this game. What did you look at for touchdowns?
19:58Yeah, this one was a little bit of a tougher one.
20:01On the Titans side of things, I'm going with Pollard scored a touchdown.
20:05I believe he practiced on Thursday. Spears, I don't remember if he did.
20:09I think regardless of Spears and Pollard play or just Pollard plays, I like this bet because Pollard's getting the lion's share of carries.
20:16He's had 17 last week, 14 the week before.
20:19He's only playing about half the snaps, but he's getting the majority of the workload every single week.
20:24So far on the season, just in the last two weeks, eight red zone touches, which is a ton considering he hasn't scored yet.
20:31But there's a spot here where I think Baltimore may end up struggling.
20:35I mean, we've seen Titans force the throw heavily or be down a lot or just be in a terrible situation all throughout the season.
20:43And with Baltimore, all the injuries, they could end up struggling here, end up keeping this game close, which would help out with Pollard.
20:50You can get them at around plus 205 at the moment.
20:54And on the other side, I'm going with Lamar to score a touchdown, plus 250.
20:58That offensive line is real beat up right now.
21:01So, I mean, I know the narrative that will still probably end up happening is Derrick Henry versus the whole team just
21:08hammer the ball over and over and over again.
21:10He's been running the ball a ton this season.
21:13But I think Lamar, with the offensive line issues, he may be forced to scramble.
21:18We don't know if Flowers. I'm guessing he's going to play, but he might be limited again with that hamstring.
21:24So there's a lot of unknowns here. And I think Lamar, who's already got 17 rushing attempts on the season and a
21:30TD, is likely going to be forced to rush the ball a little bit more and scramble a little bit more in this spot.
21:38So getting him at plus 250, I have some decent value on.
21:41Yeah, I tried to get cute last week. I took Justice Hill in this offense, thinking that maybe he might get a crack at some touchdowns.
21:49And he got zero. Zero touchdowns and zero carries inside the 20 or the five.
21:54Like right now, Derrick Henry, he technically, I believe, leads the NFL and carries inside the 20 with 18.
21:59And now facing his former team that he hasn't really had a chance to play against since coming over from Baltimore.
22:06So I imagine there will be a little extra pep in his step, especially from a Ravens standpoint, wanting to give him the ball to score.
22:14So the fact that right now you get Justice Hill off the field, you know Lamar is going to be on the field.
22:21If the Titans know that, then it's a perfect decoy play to be able to set up Lamar just to run one in untouched.
22:28And Tony Pollard, that's just a victim of circumstance.
22:31Like the Titans, I had to go back and look.
22:34I don't think they've led in any portion of any game yet this year.
22:38So what I was just looking, I was like, so if you're constantly in a trailing game script, it's going to be
22:44difficult to be able to run the ball and have some success here.
22:48But playing against Baltimore, I think they can come out early and be able to get that.
22:54So Tony Pollard, you're getting a running back one at plus 200.
22:57I think you still have to play that when you can.
23:01I am wearing a lot of Cowboys stuff today.
23:03I seems like, I don't know if it's the producer, but I keep getting assigned Cowboys games.
23:08And I just cannot pick this team to save my life.
23:12So I have the Cowboys visiting the Texans. And I feel like I'm just recycling picks.
23:17But again, just the matchup and the odds just still line up from where I like it.
23:22And I love Ryan Flannoy on this Cowboys team.
23:24He's around 4-1. This is the third week in a row I've bet him and still have yet to hit a touchdown bet with him.
23:32But they've had so many chances so far to score a touchdown.
23:36In Week 3, guys, against the Ravens. Four red zone targets, two in the end zone.
23:41Seeing a massive share of red zone snaps in the three wide receiver sets as well.
23:45And he's even filling in for CD or, you know, George Pickens if they need a breather as well.
23:51And then the thing about facing the Texans, I think Flannoy might just end up seeing kind of like the weaker cornerback matchup.
23:58I imagine Stingley, Petrie, Lasseter, they're going to be focusing a lot of their energy on stopping both those wide receivers.
24:04Now, if you want to take Jake Ferguson at plus 320, which I think is also a wild price, I'm fine with that.
24:11But Ryan Flannoy, my flag has been planted. I know he's going to get a touchdown this week.
24:17And this is where I feel good. On the Texans side, I'm going back to Xavier Hutchinson.
24:22So as of Thursday, I'm not certain if Nico is going to play.
24:26But I think he's trending towards playing even if it's on a pitch count.
24:30But he is the wide receiver, too, in this offense.
24:33And I think that's actually a better role for him because, for example, like last week, he was the wide receiver one, given what the circumstances were.
24:41Just not really that kind of role for him, especially if he's facing like the top corners.
24:47But you're facing now the Cowboys pass defense, which overall is just awful.
24:51They did just trade for Joey Porter Jr. He's not going to play this week at this point, just given the transition.
24:57But how I think that the Cowboys are going to try to set up their defense, they're probably going to role coverage
25:04and try to sell it to stop Nico Collins.
25:07This is kind of where I think that Hutch can come in and be that wide receiver, too, and get that touchdown.
25:13I mean, he had two end zone targets in week three.
25:17He should have scored a touchdown here. And we probably would be seeing odds closer to around three to one.
25:23So Xavier Hutchinson at plus 380, Ryan Flannoy around plus 360.
25:26Those are my two touchdown bets that I like for Cowboys-Texans.
25:29OK, let's keep it moving now. We have got Cardinals at the Giants.
25:33Kerner, you got this one. What do you like?
25:36Yeah, so for the Cardinals side, I'm going to go with Michael Wilson here at plus 220.
25:41He's the clear top receiver for Arizona right now.
25:44Just Marvin Harrison Jr. struggles continue. Where, if anything, you know, Marv just running wind sprints and defenses needing to put so
25:51much attention on Trey McBride is just opening things up for Wilson.
25:54And he's just his playing times massive. 95% routes run rate.
25:5725% target rate. This is a good matchup here against the Giants.
26:01So Love Wilson here at plus 220. And on the Giants side, I'm going to go with Najee Harris at plus 330
26:08because, you know, Najee signed with the Giants, I think, right before the season started.
26:12So they've been kind of easing him in at the expense of Tyrone Tracy, who's kind of out of favor with Harbaugh at this point.
26:20And they made Devin Singletary a healthy scratch last week, which I thought was kind of surprising.
26:25So this is really just a two-man backfield with Najee and Skadaboo.
26:29And this is another game this week in New York where you could see some pretty heavy rain.
26:34So they could have another run-heavy game plan here where, you know, obviously Skadaboo's excellent around the goal line.
26:40But if they rotate by drive or something like that, Najee can get some goal line work.
26:45And if you've seen him, I mean, Najee's been a big boy, but I think he's playing over like 250, 260 right now.
26:52He looks massive out there. So I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a short yardage tutty here.
26:57But, yeah, I think the time to kind of buy in on Najee is now because I think his roles is going to continue to grow a bit.
27:06He's been the more efficient back anyway. So I think getting him here at plus 330 against the Cardinals makes a ton of sense.
27:13Yeah, what a difference a year makes. If a year ago you had told me that Marvin Harrison would completely fall out
27:20of favor in this offense and Michael Wilson would then be the wide receiver one, I just – it's not that I wouldn't have believed you.
27:28It would have just been like I need to see more before I believe it.
27:32Well, I've seen it, and he's been dogging it on some routes.
27:36I will say that you had mentioned, I think, on the Fantasy Flex podcast that he might get traded at this point too.
27:43So I'm interested to see how they use him going forward.
27:46And then Najee, I mean, we love Najee, especially at plus 330.
27:50All right, this next matchup, this one was a little more difficult for me to find touchdown scorers.
27:55Grant, that's why you got this one. What do you got for Dolphins versus Vikings?
28:00The first one, I just absolutely love these odds.
28:03Malik Washington scored a touchdown plus 470 you can find him at.
28:06This is the clear number one option in this offense.
28:09He's playing 80-plus percent of snaps every week. He's running a bunch of routes.
28:14He's got 23 targets on the season. He has multiple red zone targets, which is impressive considering they're rarely ever in the red zone.
28:21A-Chan not being in the offense anymore out for season probably means even more passing volume his way.
28:26The one problem is that he plays the Dolphins, but that just is what it is.
28:31You've got to pick someone for the Dolphins, and this is just ridiculous to get a plus 470 for wide receiver one that's getting a ton of volume.
28:40I know that Flores is probably going to blitz Willis over and over and over again, and that's going to cause some problems.
28:47But I don't care when I'm getting odds these high for a guy with this much volume in this situation.
28:53And then on the other side, we haven't seen a ton of Kyler Murray in this offense.
28:58He didn't really have to do a ton last week.
29:01Only dropped back like 34 times, 35 times. But overall, I still think he has the ability to run.
29:07I don't see any reason that he's not going to be running for the majority of the season.
29:12He just hasn't done it in his one drive and one full game so far with just four rushing attempts.
29:18But Kyler's obviously got some legs. He can break off a big one at any given time.
29:23So I'm rolling with the Kyler Murray touchdown at plus 370.
29:27This is a dude with 32 rushing touchdowns in his career in 89 games, and he's probably going to use his legs in this spot.
29:34So plus 370, too high for me. That's what I'm rolling with over on the Vikings side because I don't want to
29:41take Jefferson at like plus 120 that we always thought he'd get to.
29:45Addison at low odds. Everyone's kind of pretty low odds because they're going up against the Dolphins, except for Murray.
29:51Yeah, and Jefferson, I do expect him to play.
29:53But again, he left last game. So they're steaming Addison's odds as if he's not going to play just to make sure
30:00that they have, you know, they're covered from a liability standpoint.
30:03But yeah, Kyler at plus 370. I mean, his longest rush prop.
30:07I watched Nick Giffen cash this. It was over.
30:10It was nine and a half. Cleared that on one attempt.
30:13Like that was the thing. Like we knew that was going to kind of happen, the fact that he only had two rushing attempts.
30:20But now facing a Dolphins team, definitely worth looking at.
30:23Plus 370. So nice spot there for Malik Washington at plus 470 and Kyler Murray at plus 370.
30:29All right. So we're on the 4 p.m. slate now at this point.
30:33And I've got the Broncos 49ers game. And on the 49ers side, it was a little bit more difficult given the substation
30:40seems to be making its way through the wide receiver room right now with the 49ers.
30:44Mike Evans might play. He might not. You know, they've called up Brandon Cook.
30:49So it's a bit of a mess all over there.
30:52So I'm going to go with Luke Farrell. He's around 11 to 1.
30:56He's kind of taken over that tight end two spot from Jake Tongass.
31:00And I think just to negate some of that Broncos pass rush, he might have to be on the field a lot more.
31:06And George Kittle, to his credit, has looked great through three games.
31:10But again, coming off of that injury that he came off of last year, I'm kind of wondering and hoping not that they're running him into the ground.
31:19And if that is the case, they might need, you know, somebody like Farrell to be out there just to help block,
31:25maybe leak out for a quick pass. And he's played the second most snaps of any Niners tight end.
31:31So by default, I'm going to take Luke Farrell at 11 to 1 because once you look at the top of the
31:38odds board in that game and you see all the Niners options, it's not fun.
31:42Like, I don't want to take Debo Samuel at plus 150.
31:46I don't want to take Christian McCaffrey at minus 300.
31:49So those two, we'll take Luke Farrell on the Niners side.
31:52On the Broncos side, I'm just going to keep going back to this one.
31:56Courtland Sutton at plus 230. He's still, to me, the wide receiver one in this offense.
32:01He's still playing the most snaps. He's still running the most routes run.
32:05But you're seeing as well that they're still making it a point to at least try and target him in the end zone.
32:12He's the only Bronco that has seen a red zone target and an end zone target in each game.
32:18He almost scored in week three versus the Rams.
32:20So there's a lot of receiving options you can look at if you wanted to go crazy with, I mean, in a
32:27Sean Payton offense, you can get real crazy. Start looking at Nate Atkins, who cashed for us last week, current around like 22 to 1.
32:35You could be looking at, you know, running back three that there's a lot of guys you can make the case for.
32:41But at least from a Courtland Sutton standpoint, that is the one case that I know that he's going to be on the field a lot.
32:49And they are going to at least have one, maybe two design throws into the end zone.
32:54So that's where I'm going to go with Courtland Sutton.
32:57He's around plus 240. Okay, Sean, you're up next.
33:00This one is low-key. I think a little bit of a fun one here.
33:04Chargers at Seahawks. What do you like for this one?
33:07I don't know if the Chargers are fun, Jill, but, you know, I don't mind this game.
33:13Chaos is fun. Yeah, I think the Brown Steelers is going to be fun.
33:17That's how sick I am. But I'm going to go with Trey Harris on the Chargers side, plus 550.
33:23Not expecting the Chargers to score many touchdowns here, so just going to go with a little bit more of a longer shot.
33:29But he's, you know, Harris has been the clear number three wide receiver.
33:33But with the Chargers tight end rooms is completely decimated right now, I think he's going to get a little bit of a boost.
33:41There's a chance if Quentin Johnson continues to drop the ball, we could just see Harris kind of take over that role or be featured.
33:48A little bit more, because I know Mike McDaniel has been talking him up ever since camp.
33:53So I know he loves him. So I think he's worth a flyer here.
33:58And it was a few minutes ago I actually got an alert that Lad apparently missed practice today with a foot injury.
34:04So, which is a new injury, right? He had the rib injury a couple weeks ago.
34:09Now it's a foot injury. So there's a chance that he might not play or, like, Harris's odds could be nuked by the time you actually hear this.
34:18So I'm locking it in right now. But I just like his upside.
34:22And, yeah, if Lad ends up being out, I'm going to like it even more.
34:26But at a lower price. So Trey Harris for me on the Chargers side.
34:30Seahawks side is kind of gross. I'm not going to go with my typical A.J.
34:35Barner bet here, Jill. I'm going to go with Emmanuel Wilson at plus 225.
34:39Because, you know, he's been the main goal line back with Zach Charbonnet on IR, which is kind of what I expected.
34:46I think they should use A.J. Barner anytime they're on the goal line or at the one.
34:51But they've been still, you know, trying to use Wilson in the Charbonnet role.
34:55And Charbonnet might be back next week. So this is kind of the last chance to get Wilson.
35:01But I thought, you know, it was a reach to take Jadarian Price for them in the first round.
35:06He's a very talented, explosive back. But he's not really a goal line back.
35:11He had some fumbling issues in his limited playing time at Notre Dame.
35:15And it kind of flared up last week. He fumbled the ball where, you know, he set up the commanders in the red zone.
35:22And they scored almost immediately. So they kind of had Wilson be the main back after that play.
35:27So I think Wilson's going to see an uptick in overall work here.
35:31And potentially see most of the goal line work again.
35:34And so, yeah, give me Wilson at plus 225.
35:37Then I think next week Charbonnet might be back or, you know, a couple weeks.
35:42And then, you know, he'll be back to being the real goal line back in this offense.
35:47Yeah, I was going to say Charbo. I just went to look because his practice window just opened up today.
35:53But he's not eligible to return until week five.
35:56But by week six, week seven, he could be back in this lineup.
35:59But, yeah, I was just like Jadarian Price has went to the medical tent, I think, in each game so far, too,
36:06which is a little slight of build. And I think that's one of the reasons why you're starting to see that maybe
36:13Emmanuel Wilson is actually going to be the ball carrier for this offense, at least until Charbo gets back here.
36:19Okay, last game for the 4 p.m. slate. Another fun one.
36:22Chiefs Raiders. Grant, you got this one. What did you like?
36:25Yeah, over on the Chiefs side, I was having a little bit of trouble deciding.
36:30I ended up going with Worthy. I mean, obviously, they've been running the ball a ton this season.
36:35But Worthy's still been pretty decently involved. Four targets in the red zone.
36:39So that's far this season. He has a touchdown, which for red zone targets is tied for the lead on the team with Rasheed Rice.
36:47So he's been used heavily in the red zone so far this year.
36:51He hasn't looked great. He hasn't done anything impressive at all.
36:54But he always has the chance to maybe get a gadget play in there or two that he hasn't seen yet this year.
37:01That I wouldn't be surprised if they do. Always has a chance to get a deep ball.
37:06But just the fact that he's getting some decent red zone usage makes it more than enough for me to take him
37:13at plus 240, regardless of how bad he's looked.
37:16And over on the other side, one I really like that I can't believe is at plus 200.
37:21Brock Bowers, plus 200 to score a touchdown. The dude is first or second best tight end in the league.
37:27I don't think many people argue with that. Had 14 targets last week, 10 receptions.
37:32He has a coach now that is very good offensively.
37:35He's going to be heavily involved. Obviously, I had a touchdown last week.
37:39I don't see a way that this line doesn't start dropping in the next few weeks.
37:44There's no same thing we saw with McBride. Like, why are you giving these odds?
37:48Why are you giving us these odds? Why are you giving us these odds?
37:52Okay, they finally figured out. That's what Brock Bowers is right now.
37:56There's no way he should be at plus 200 at the moment with the amount of volume he's getting, with how good
38:03he is, and strangle enough with how good the Raiders offense has been this year.
38:07So, decent chance they're playing from behind the spot.
38:10Everything points towards Bowers being drastically overpriced at plus 200.
38:13Yeah, Worthy always seems to be the by default guy that shows the most value in touchdown odds, just because they'll steam the hell out of Rice.
38:21Kenneth Walker, it's like minus 250 at this point.
38:24Travis Kelsey is still getting Travis Kelsey 2021 treatment with the plus 150 odds to score.
38:29So, yeah, Worthy is always a decent spot here, just given the speed and how they scheme him up.
38:35But, yeah, Bowers, we did bully them into changing it.
38:38Trey McBride is now around like plus 135, plus 140.
38:41So, I think they finally got the hint. But when I took Brock Bowers last week on the show, I kind of
38:47thought they were going to ease him in, kind of use him more in red zone situations, high leverage spots.
38:53It's like, no, we're going to use him and Michael Mayer all the time.
38:58And they looked really good offensively. Brock Bowers looked like a man amongst boys in that game.
39:03Very interesting to see how he goes against this Chiefs defense.
39:06Let's now move to Sunday Night Football. Detroit Lions visiting the Carolina Panthers.
39:10Instead of assigning this game to each person, we're going to each pick our favorite touchdown scorer from the game.
39:16I'm going to go with Jamison Williams. Panthers are going to be missing some guys in the secondary.
39:22They're bottom 10 in defensive DVOA versus the deep ball through three games.
39:25Hasn't scored yet. You know he's a fixture in this offense.
39:29I'm going to take Jamo at 2-1. Grant, what do you like?
39:32Well, Sean, who we'll get to in a second, took my favorite play.
39:36So I'm going to my second favorite play, which is Jalen Coker to score.
39:41I know that he's currently questionable. I think he ends up playing this week.
39:45Obviously, the first two games where he played the whole game, nine targets each week.
39:49He is tied to the lead on the team in targets in the red zone this year with five.
39:55Detroit, big pass funnel. Obviously, this game is probably going to have a lot of points in it.
40:01Carolina has been throwing at a massive clip so far this season.
40:04So Coker, plus 200, bit too high for me.
40:07All right. Jamo Coker. What are we looking at, Kerner?
40:10Well, it sounds like I stole Darren Waller from Grant.
40:13So I love this one even more. But Darren Waller at plus 260.
40:17He's seen his playing time go up every week as he gets up to speed with his new team.
40:23So, you know, his playing time will likely continue to tick up.
40:26And while he's, you got to bet him while he's healthy.
40:30We get like a four to five game stretch with him healthy.
40:33So we got to take advantage while we can here in week four.
40:37But the Panthers didn't bring Darren Waller in to block.
40:40They brought him in to catch passes and catch touchdowns.
40:43And the Lions, this is crazy. They've given up six touchdowns so far this year, all to different tight ends, which is just wild.
40:51We're in week three. So every week they give out a touchdown to two different tight ends.
40:56So maybe Waller just ends up scoring two touchdowns here.
40:59I think he's worth the flyer to take two plus touchdowns here.
41:02But definitely want to take him here at plus 260.
41:05Okay. So the parlay between Darren Waller, Jalen Coker, and Jamison Williams.
41:09Parlay for Sunday Night Football for our touchdown parlay is 30 to one.
41:13So loving this spot right here. I think there could be a lot of touchdowns in that game, especially on the passing front.
41:20Monday Night Football. We'll see about the touchdowns in that game.
41:23But again, we'll see how it goes. We did see some positive regression there for the Atlanta Falcons offense.
41:29So Monday Night Football, Falcons, Saints. We've got our favorite touchdown scores in this game.
41:34Somebody has to do it, Kerner. I'm going to take Kyle Pitts.
41:37It's a plus 450. First off, I'm done with Drake London forever.
41:41I cannot do that ever again after he pretty much cost me two touchdowns last week when he played.
41:47And I just think Kyle Pitts, given how much routes he's running, his size, profile, I'm not going to get into his fantasy stats and stuff like that.
41:55He has to be involved in this offense for this team to succeed.
41:59So I'm going to take Kyle Pitts, especially when I'm getting around plus 450.
42:03Grant, what did you do for this game? Going with another tight end on the other side.
42:08Juwan Johnson to score a touchdown. You can get him at plus 230 at the moment.
42:13Dude has six red zone targets so far this season.
42:16He has three touchdowns so far this season. He is being heavily used like he was heavily used last year.
42:22The volume is just far too good to have him at odds this high.
42:27I mean, I think he's another guy that, I mean, if he keeps seeing the same amount of volume and same amount
42:33of usage in the red zone, at some point his odds are going to get absolutely nuked.
42:38So I'm getting in while they're still over plus 200 right now and hoping that he keeps the same role he's had so far this season.
42:46Yeah, there are only four players with four end zone targets or more.
42:50Christian Watson, Trey McBride, Jackson Smith, the Jigba and Juwan Johnson.
42:54So those are the first two picks. Kerner, what are you looking at for the to round out this parlay?
43:00Well, I'm going to round it out to make it a true tight end parlay, which makes sense just given the NFL
43:06is really shifting to more tight end heavy league.
43:09So why not have three tight ends to score?
43:12So I'm going to go with Noah Fant at plus 500.
43:15And both Fant and Juwan have three touchdowns this season.
43:18So love stacking both Saints tight ends here. And I keep mentioning that a reason for that probably is, you know, Taysom Hill's no longer with the Saints.
43:27So, you know, the touchdown upside for everybody is kind of elevated.
43:30It wasn't just when Taysom Hill was running in touchdowns.
43:33It was him just like taking the snap and rushing it and not scoring.
43:38Like those plays kind of robbed the upside of everybody.
43:41So I just think not having him gets, you know, someone like Fant on the field more in these red zone packages.
43:47And we've already seen that where, you know, both Juwan and Fant are scoring a bunch of touchdowns this year.
43:53So I actually have Fant closer to plus 400.
43:56I do think he continues to kind of tear it up in the red zone along with Juwan.
44:01So I kind of like the idea of stacking all the tight ends in this game.
44:06Well, the true tight end parlay comes out to 95 to 1 for Monday Night Football.
44:11So loving the price that we're getting on this for Pitts, Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints.
44:17That's our touchdown parlay. But we still do have to give out our favorite touchdown score parlay of week four.
44:24So before we get out of here, let's give our favorite touchdown scores for the week presented by DraftKings.
44:29It could be from any game. We'll parlay them together over on DraftKings.
44:33Kerner, you can go first. Got to go with my guy making his debut this week.
44:38Undrafted free agent Jalen Daniels starting in place of Baker Mayfield.
44:41I love his price here at plus 390 because you'll see this weekend he has massive rushing upside.
44:47And I think he's going to just lean into that even more in his debut until he gets comfortable against starting NFL defenses.
44:54So love the price here at plus 390. Yes.
44:57Jalen Daniels, not Jaden Daniels, the way I heard it the first time listening to a broadcast.
45:02Jalen Daniels. All right. So Grant, you are up next.
45:05What do you like? What's your best touchdown score for week four?
45:08I'm going with Kalief Raymond. Again, plus 380 considering his role in this offense is just absolutely ridiculous to me.
45:14Playing more snaps than Luther Burden. Heavily targeted. If Keenum starts, again, their great rapport that they had last week should keep going.
45:21Everything kind of points towards this just being a bad overall line.
45:25And I'm going to take advantage of that. Absolutely.
45:28So Jalen Daniels, Kalief Raymond. I'm going to round it out with another Jalen.
45:32Jalen Hurts. It's my favorite touchdown bet of the week.
45:35Scored last week. I do expect his touchdown production to continue throughout the year.
45:39You're getting a perennial touchdown threat in this Eagles offense at plus 175 or better.
45:44So I'm going to take it almost every time at that price.
45:47So when you put Jalen Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Kalief Raymond together, gentlemen, that's a 61-1 parlay over at DraftKings.
45:54So I love the odds on this parlay. So those are our favorite touchdown scores for the week presented by DraftKings.
46:00Again, you'll absolutely want to tail these over on DraftKings.
46:03All customers will get a profit boost every game day.
46:06Download the DraftKings sports app. Use promo code ACTIONNETWORK.
46:09When you sign up, DraftKings, the crown is yours.
46:11All right. So that'll do it for us here on the Touchdown Show for week four presented by DraftKings.
46:17My thanks to Sean Koerner and Grant Neifer for joining me.
46:20As always, don't forget, BetSync is back in the Action app.
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