NFL Touchdown Show | Week 3

Mitchell had 27 total targets last year with 11 end zone targets and six receiving touchdowns; the source notes that much of his second-half production came during Sam Laporta's absence, but emphasizes Mitchell is 'such a touchdown machine' and 'if he's catching anything, it's probably for a touchdown at this point in his career.' Getting him at plus 475 in a not bad matchup with expected heavy red zone usage.

The source identifies Adonai Mitchell at plus 330 for first-touchdown scorer in the Jets-Lions game as 'a steal.' Mitchell is being used heavily in the Jets offense with 12 targets last week. The source cites his athleticism and talent despite 'hands of stone,' and notes the favorable matchup: Detroit has a great run defense (pass funnel) and horrific pass defense all season with injuries compounding the weakness. Playing in a dome further enhances his value.

Barner is the best touchdown option for the Seahawks outside JSN at plus 275. With Zach Charbonnet out the first four weeks, Barner is the main ball carrier in the tush push, which has been the most successful running play in the league for two years. He converted a tush push TD at the one-yard line last week and should get the next goal-line opportunity.

The source uses Amon Ra St. Brown as a comparison point when discussing Tesla's red-zone usage. St. Brown had 10 targets in the red zone last year, the same amount as Tesla, establishing a baseline for Tesla's red-zone opportunity.

Corum is positioned as a touchdown scorer against Denver's 28th-ranked DVOA run defense, which has struggled with tackling; the source likes him to score from anywhere on the field and specifically "give him one shot near the goal line" at plus 260 odds, viewing the price as favorable.

Kincaid is the favorite pick of the entire week at plus 190 to plus 230. Through two games, he has 225 receiving yards and 12 receptions on 14 targets with a 65% snap rate. The Bills are expected to pass at a high clip against the Chargers (much higher than their second-lowest pass rate last year), and Kincaid will be the focal point along with Moore if Moore plays.

Kincaid is averaging over 100 yards per game, scored a touchdown last week, and is "drastically underpriced" at plus 200 to plus 210 odds; the source likes him even if Stefon Diggs plays, and especially if he doesn't, as the line would be "drastically too high" in that scenario.

With Nico Collins out, Dalton Schultz is receiving increased target volume for the Texans. However, the source characterizes him as 'not really a touchdown guy,' limiting his value for first-touchdown scorer bets despite the elevated usage.

Waller is a touchdown bet at plus 450 anytime TD odds. He scored twice last week against the Falcons and remains heavily involved in the Panthers offense at this stage of his career. The Browns defense plays man coverage at a top-five rate and single high safety at a top-five rate in both games; historically, Waller has seen a target boost when defenses play single high coverage versus two high, making him a strong play against this defensive profile.

The source identifies Montgomery as having significant first-touchdown scorer value at 5-1 odds in a Texans-Colts matchup. The reasoning: the Texans are expected to score first, Montgomery will be heavily leaned upon early in the game, and once the Texans get into neutral game scripts, his usage will increase further. The source explicitly states 'Montgomery just has a ton of value here to score first at 5-1' and notes that first-team odds (plus 250) are insufficient value.

Watson is a touchdown bet at plus 310 as a ball carrier against the Panthers. Through two games, he has 12 carries and looked spry. If the Browns get inside the 10-yard line, Watson's conservative passing approach means he'll either throw it in the dirt or take off to the end zone with nothing in between. The Panthers run defense is weak.

Watson is a touchdown bet at plus 310 anytime TD odds. As a ball carrier through two games with 12 carries, he looked spry. The source expects that if the Browns get inside the 10-yard line, Watson's conservative passing approach means he'll either throw it in the dirt or take off to the end zone with little in between; Panthers run defense allowed six rushing touchdowns in week one and didn't have to defend the run in week two versus the Falcons.

Moore is in a 50-50 timeshare with Calvin Ridley in the downfield/in-zone target role for the Titans. As a rebuilding team, the Titans should give Moore more work going forward rather than less at Ridley's expense. He already has one touchdown this season and his snap rate should increase, making him a sneaky touchdown bet at plus 550.

Easing back from Achilles tear; not yet a full-time player; Luke Farrell currently seeing elevated role in red zone and heavier personnel sets until Kittle returns to full-time status.

Had two touchdowns last week and priced at plus 300 to plus 325; source questions the high price given he had eight touchdowns last year and is playing 65% of snaps, suggesting undervaluation.

Hurts has only one red zone carry through two games despite being routinely in the top 10 in red zone carries in the NFL; the source views this as an anomaly and likes him to score at plus 150 odds against Chicago, noting uncertainty about passing due to weather but confidence in his rushing upside in the red zone.

Jonathan Taylor is identified as the big threat to score the first touchdown for the Colts against the Texans. The source is setting up Taylor as the opposing first TD option to Dave Montgomery in this matchup.

The source identifies Jonathan Taylor as the primary red-zone threat for the Colts alongside Tyler Warren. With Daniel Jones returning from an Achilles tear, the Colts are expected to avoid design runs and scrambles near the goal line, making red-zone touches a choice between Taylor and Warren. Taylor is positioned as the lead option in this scenario.

Oliver is primarily known as a blocker but at plus 750 the source views his touchdown prop as a value bet; through two games he's run only 22 routes but been targeted on five of them, giving him a high target rate when on the field. The source expects Oliver to see increased snaps in two-tight-end sets because the Buccaneers blitz at 42 percent and Oliver is the superior blocker to TJ Hawkinson, meaning he'll likely be on the field more near the end zone against a bottom-five Buccaneers pass defense.

Superior blocker to Hawkinson; Vikings likely to deploy two tight end sets against Bucs' 42% blitz rate, positioning Oliver for red zone opportunities and touchdown upside that could upset those concentrated on Jettis or Jordan Addison.

At plus 900 odds, Farrell is running routes on 40% of Brock Purdy's dropbacks with Jake Tonjes out and George Kittle easing back from Achilles tear; source projects closer to plus 650, noting he scored two touchdowns last year in a smaller role and will see red zone work in heavier personnel sets.

Burden leads the Bears with a 19% first-read rate and should see increased targets if Case Keenum starts, as Keenum plays more structured football and will want to get the ball to his best playmaker; the source likes him at plus 295 odds and notes Ben Johnson may even design run plays for him similar to DJ Moore usage last year.

Fields is the Giants' third-round pick who should see increased playing time with Jackson Dart expected to miss the rest of the regular season. He's been the number three receiver with a 76% routes run rate last week and is a 6'4" bigger-body receiver who gives Kenny Galladay vibes. With James Winston as QB, he's a downfield threat at plus 500 value before the market catches on.

Washington is the go-to wide receiver in the Dolphins offense, playing 80% of snaps and running routes 93% of the time. He has one red zone target but no touchdown yet, making him overpriced at plus 330 for the main pass-catching piece of the offense behind Hill.

Harrison Jr. is described as "broken" by the source, drawing so much coverage that it has led to even more targets for teammate Trey McBride; this is mentioned as context for why McBride's touchdown odds are favorable.

The source notes that Nico Collins is out for the Texans-Colts game, which impacts the Texans' passing game distribution. With Collins unavailable, Dalton Schultz is receiving increased target volume, though the source characterizes Schultz as 'not really a touchdown guy,' making him less valuable for first-touchdown scorer bets.

Freiermuth is a set-it-and-forget-it play against the Bengals, who are 31st in targets, catches, and yards to tight ends and have allowed no TDs to the position this year. Freiermuth caught a TD in Week 1 and ran twice the routes of Darnell Washington last week. Last year in a Thursday night game, he had six catches and two TDs against this defense.

Dobbs is in a good spot to bounce back after two difficult game scripts (Seahawks defense, Steelers game where Patriots parked the bus). He led the Packers in end zone targets and receiving touchdowns last year and is one of the leaders on the Patriots in ADOT this season. If Drake May recaptures his deep ball magic, Dobbs can find the end zone against the Jaguars defense.

Diggs' status is uncertain heading into Week 3; the source notes "we don't know if Moore is going to play" in the context of Kincaid's value, suggesting Diggs' availability could impact target distribution.

Higgins is the favorite touchdown bet of the week at plus 200. Through two games, he leads the Bengals in target share, yards per route run, and first-read targets with 10 targets against the Texans. The odds discrepancy between him and Jamar Chase (who got the TDs last week) is unjustified; both should be around the same odds as in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.

Higgins leads the Bengals in target share and yards through two games with first-read targets; the source notes he would not be getting his current price if he had scored last week against Houston, implying the market is undervaluing him; he is included in the 24-1 touchdown parlay.

Lawrence is in a bounce-back spot against the Patriots defense, which has faced weak passing attacks (Drew Locke, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold) and runs man coverage at a top-five rate. The Patriots won't be able to stack the box like they did against the Steelers because the Jaguars have receiving threats in Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers. Lawrence led targets per route run against the Texans last week and should get opportunities to call his own number in the red zone.

Best tight end in the league; scored in both games so far; at plus 205 odds, source projects closer to plus 170, calling the current price 'silly' and locking him in as a strong value play despite typically juiced-down odds for elite players.

McBride is priced at plus 205 but the source believes his fair odds should be around plus 120 to plus 170, calling the current price "silly"; he has already scored in both games and the source attributes increased targets to Marv Harrison Jr. drawing coverage, making McBride the "anchor play" of the parlay.

The source backs Tyler Warren at plus 210 for first-touchdown scorer in the Colts game, citing two consecutive weeks of scoring in this role. The reasoning centers on red-zone opportunity: with Daniel Jones returning from an Achilles tear, the Colts are unlikely to call design runs or scrambles near the goal line, making the red-zone touches a binary choice between Jonathan Taylor and Warren. Warren has rushing upside in the playbook, making him the most steady option outside Taylor for Colts touchdowns.

Thornton is the only real deep threat in the Chiefs offense, playing 60% snaps and running routes at 70%, with a massive ADOT around 23. He's the only value on the Chiefs at plus 475 in a game where four Chiefs are under plus 200. He can take one deep at any time against the Dolphins defense.