NFL Futures Watch | Week 4

Blake Corum hasn't looked fantastic at points this season. The Rams are running five tight ends and trying different things offensively, with Kyron taking a bulk of the loaded points, suggesting Corum's role and production have been inconsistent.

After returning from meniscus surgery with only a two-week absence, Bowers posted 10 catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown on 13 targets in his first game back, finishing as tight end 17 in fantasy scoring. The source notes this is comparable to Jackson Smith-Njigba's target and yardage share in Seattle last year (JSN had 36% of targets and 44% of yards in week three; Bowers had 42% of targets and 47% of yards), suggesting Kubiak is building the entire offense around him despite limited receiving weapons on the Raiders roster.

The source identifies Bowers to finish as the top fantasy tight end at 11% in prediction markets (roughly 8-to-1 odds) as a strong buy. With Bowers already at tight end 17 after one game and Trey McBride at 26% (halfway there in two-touchdown comparison), the source believes Bowers can catch McBride despite McBride's two-game head start, especially if McBride misses time or gets shut down late in the season.

Bowers' points-per-game over/under is set at 14 PPR points; he scored 27.6 in his first game back. The source notes this metric is valuable because it doesn't require a full season of health—even if Bowers plays limited snaps or gets injured again, the per-game average can still be hit. Last year he averaged 14.7 PPR points despite being hurt all season, and as a rookie he averaged 15.5, both exceeding the current 14-point line.

Bowers is being deployed across the field by Kubiak—16 snaps in the slot, 16 out wide, 7 in line with a 9.3 average depth of target—and is mostly splitting out wide against corners rather than playing traditional tight end (only 9 snaps as a traditional tight end, no receptions in that role). The source emphasizes he is 'the man' and will be 'all over the place' because the Raiders lack other receiving weapons, particularly after Betch got hurt.

The source notes a potential downside: when Fernando Mendoza eventually takes over at quarterback for Kirk Cousins, there is uncertainty about whether Mendoza will target Bowers as frequently. However, the source mitigates this concern by noting that Cousins loves throwing to tight ends and Kubiak will force Mendoza to target the tight end position; additionally, rookie quarterbacks often lock onto one receiver, and Bowers is the clear target. The source also notes both Cousins and Mendoza 'feel like nerds' and should get along, and Mendoza's 'happy feet' from the preseason may actually help Bowers.

Brock Purdy has 56 career starts and has never faced Denver's defense. In his last three starts against Seattle, two of those three were his fourth and sixth worst success rate performances in terms of passing. The source notes these are unbelievable defenses he'll face in back-to-back weeks (Denver and Seattle in Weeks 5-6), and his historical struggles against Seattle are a concern.

CJ Stroud and the Texans offense have struggled to start the season at 0-3. While it's easy to make fun of the offense and Stroud, the source notes the numbers say the offense has been only a little below average, not as bad as it sounds. However, the real problem is the defense isn't as good as expected either, with predictability and corner play being issues.

Case Keenum lit up the Eagles defense in Week 4, playing mistake-free football with a coach-on-the-field effect that calmed the entire offense. The Eagles were one inch and one second away from a 34-0 shutout, with Keenum's performance being a key factor in the competitive nature of the game despite the Eagles' overall dominance in yardage.

Colston Loveland was involved in a controversial play against the Eagles where a touchdown was negated; the source notes they were one inch and one second away from a 34-0 shutout, with Loveland's play being part of the Eagles' near-shutout scenario.

Dalton Kincaid continues to be awesome for the Bills, part of an offense that is top-three in both running and passing under Joe Brady. The source notes that when an offense is this good, you can live with a mediocre defense, and Kincaid is a key component of that elite offensive output.

Brandon Anderson credited Dalton Schultz with clearing off his losses from the previous week, indicating strong recent performance that helped recover from a rough betting weekend.

David Montgomery looked fantastic for the Texans in Week 1, but the source notes that Week 2 and 3 have been a complete different story. The Texans' advanced numbers in weeks two and three show they're 27th in success rate and 29th in EPA, suggesting Montgomery's production has declined significantly.

The 49ers' receiving corps is down to Debo Samuel and a bunch of unproven depth pieces, with multiple injuries stacking up. The source notes that even in deep fantasy leagues, these backup receivers wouldn't be drafted, highlighting the injury crisis at the position.

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense have been terrible running the ball, posting a 31% success rate rushing the football against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints—bottom-five competition. The source notes this is outright bad and would likely be worst in the league if measured against better competition.

The source states that when Fernando Mendoza enters the game (expected soon given the Raiders' brutal upcoming schedule), a rookie quarterback will 'lower your ceiling' for the Raiders offense. The source likes Mendoza long-term but emphasizes that his arrival will result in more losses for the team.

The Vikings have lost two games of Jordan Mason through three weeks due to injury, part of a mounting injury crisis affecting the offense.

Josh Allen delivered an MVP-caliber performance in the Bills' win over the Chargers, including a late-game fourth-and-seven scramble where he stayed up and flipped the ball to Ty Johnson for what would have been a touchdown (called back for a first down). The source notes Allen 'does the other Josh Allen stuff' by saving games with his legs and creativity, even when he's making mistakes early. This demonstrates the margin for error the Bills' offense now has under Joe Brady.

Josh Oliver, an awesome blocking tight end and big part of the Vikings' run blocking scheme who is basically a starter for them, has been lost to injury. The source notes this is a significant loss for the run game.

The Vikings have lost one game of Justin Jefferson through three weeks due to injury. The source notes this is part of a broader injury crisis affecting the Vikings' offense, which has failed to crack 250 yards in all three games.

Kenneth Walker was everywhere in the Colts' Week 1 win over Denver, part of a dominant offensive performance where the Colts doubled up Denver in yardage and first downs.

Kirk Cousins is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns through week 3, but the source frames this in the context of the Raiders' deteriorating schedule and overall team weakness. The source suggests that while Cousins has had early success, the Raiders' upcoming schedule (Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos) will likely result in losses, and Cousins will eventually be replaced by rookie Fernando Mendoza, which will lower the team's ceiling.

The Vikings have effectively lost two games of Kyler Murray so far through three weeks due to his absence or limited availability. The source notes that there's no proof the Vikings' offensive system works with Kyler healthy, and the offense has been really bad without him.

Matthew Stafford threw a pick-six in the end zone against Denver in Week 3 after the Rams nearly won despite giving up two touchdowns, two-point conversions, and that pick-six. Brandon Anderson notes MVP is probably already gone for Stafford due to the Rams' 1-2 start and inconsistent performance.

Nico Collins is out for the Texans and his absence is critical to their offensive struggles. The source emphasizes that without Nico Collins, the Texans are just an absolute different team, and putting him back into the lineup could make Houston look a lot different. His injury is a major factor in the team's 0-3 start.

The source projects Mahomes at 9-1 MVP odds, suggesting strong upside despite coming off a torn ACL and being in a new offensive system with a revamped line and new cornerbacks. The source believes the Chiefs are top-six DVOA on both offense and defense through three weeks, indicating Mahomes is performing well in the early-season window.

Puka Nakua has not played this season due to injury. The Rams are operating without him, which impacts their offensive capabilities. Brandon Anderson notes the Rams are doing this without Puka and suggests his absence is a significant factor in their performance, with MVP and Offensive Player of the Year awards now likely out of reach for Nakua.

Trey McBride is currently favored to finish as the top fantasy tight end at 26% in prediction markets. The source uses McBride as a comparison point for Bowers, noting that Bowers is already halfway to McBride's odds despite having only one game of stats and McBride having a two-game head start.

Ty Johnson was the target on a crucial late-game scramble by Josh Allen in the Bills' win over the Chargers, receiving a flip on fourth-and-seven near midfield that went for what would have been a touchdown (called back for a first down).

Tyler Higbee lit up the Denver Broncos defense in Week 3, stepping in after Ferguson got hurt. The source notes this was unexpected, as Ferguson was supposed to be the primary target, but Higbee delivered strong production against a defense that looked dominant in the first half.