0:00Mom, are we there yet? Ten more minutes. Only ten minutes?
0:03Can you drive slower? What's up with them today?
0:06Lingo Kids. That app we downloaded last week? They love it.
0:10The games, oh, this funny baby bot character. Kids, we're almost there.
0:14No! With more than 4,000 interactive games, songs, and shows little ones can't get enough of, Lingo Kids is the number one entertainment platform for young kids.
0:22Why didn't we download this sooner? Lingo Kids! Everything kids love.
0:26Download it for free. Hey, this is Anthony from Raiders of a Lost Podcast.
0:30With movies, the actors get all the buzz. But nothing happens without the crew behind the scenes.
0:35That's how it is with GEICO. They're your support system behind the scenes.
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0:51Behind the scenes, taking care of all the hard stuff, so you have the confidence to keep moving.
0:56Learn more at GEICO.com. Lisa, tell them about our new show.
1:00We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me.
1:03I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
1:08And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
1:13And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
1:17Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
1:22Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:26I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.
1:29You've never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to rink on Halloween.
1:34Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:42I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast, the true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
1:51Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them.
1:54What? I could talk to you for an hour.
1:57You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job.
2:02And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
2:06Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:11Scam! The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action, boss.
2:15Ready! Hit! Alright, here we go. From the 10th, throwing in zone.
2:18Spectacular catch! They're saying it's a catch! Touchdown! You see, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win.
2:25Oh my God, that's incredible! Big bank, small bank, I like to make money.
2:30Alright. That is the ultimate kibosh. You want a bet?
2:33And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by DraftKings.
2:37I'm Brandon Kravitz, and I'm joined every Tuesday with futures analyst Brandon Anderson for a deep dive into the futures market and more.
2:44Another NFL weekend is in the books. All hail Dalton Schultz.
2:48What a call by you. Did you buy yourself anything nice with the winnings?
2:52I feel like I should be buying a Dalton Schultz jersey at this point, just to start out.
2:58That'd be a great place to start. So we have a lot to get to here.
3:03We've got a lot that we're going to pack into these shows.
3:07Brandon and I cook up all sorts of ideas to deliver to you in the futures market, market movers.
3:13We've got Brandon's big picture. I'll give you a market that you can buy stock on now for our weekly trading segment
3:20that I'm going to look to sell in the future, which we can now do at all of these wonderful prediction markets.
3:27And then Brandon's going to give you one big thing before we get on out of here.
3:32So it is time for some buy or sell.
3:35And this is where we hit the hottest stories and the biggest market shifts that we need to be aware of.
3:41Are you buying this? Buying or selling? What are you buying?
3:45You want to sell? Buy it. Time to sell us right now.
3:49At 70%, DK predicts has the Buffalo Bills as the heaviest favorite to win their division in the NFL.
3:55Buy or sell? The odds makers being spot on with this one.
3:59Man, Thursday night, it seems like a long time ago now, but that game was over so fast.
4:04I saw the Lions come out and not control the edge and not put a spy on Josh Allen as the Bills just marched right down the field.
4:13And I was like, oh, oh, we're doing that tonight.
4:16Like that thing was over immediately. Buffalo scored a touchdown on six of their eight drives, five for five in the red
4:23zone, nine of 12 on third down, 34 first downs, a crazy number.
4:27They over one EPA per play on late downs.
4:30We know Buffalo is a team I was, well, I wouldn't say out.
4:34No, we'll say out. I'll say out. I gave them 18th in my power rankings.
4:39I picked them to miss the playoffs. If that's not out, I don't know what out is.
4:44Clearly not looking great right now. Don Kincaid has been a monster.
4:48Dalvin Cook, or not Dalvin Cook, James Cook, and the running game are flowing.
4:53And Josh Allen obviously has been incredible. On defense, that's where my skepticism was more.
4:57Greg Rousseau up front. Deion Walker have been really great breakouts for them.
5:02Still not the best defense, but they're coming around a little bit.
5:05So what I noticed on Thursday night is obviously all the Buffalo points.
5:09But also the Detroit points that they kept scoring, missing three offensive linemen.
5:14And they kept never really being in it. But they did crack 30 points.
5:18So I looked it up. The Bills are only the third team in NFL history to start 2-0, allowing at least 30 points both of those games.
5:27The fourth team ever to start 2-0, allowing at least 62 points.
5:30Here's the other teams. They're going to sound familiar to you.
5:34The 91 Buffalo Bills, the 2000 Rams, the 2018 Chiefs.
5:37All three of those teams were really, really good offenses.
5:40They finished second, first, and first in offensive rating.
5:43They also finished 19th, 31st, and 24th defensively. Because guess what?
5:47If you give up 30 in both games, your defense stinks.
5:50But if you give up 30 and win both games, your offense is pretty darn good.
5:55So those teams averaged, if you make it out to 32 teams, a 26th place defense on the season.
6:01None of the three won the Super Bowl. One of them made it.
6:05They all did make the playoffs. But they only had three playoff wins combined.
6:10Averaged about a 12-4 finish, one playoff win each.
6:13Which, notably, they all got locked out in the playoffs, allowing, guess what?
6:1730 points. Again, just like these first two games.
6:20So, tiny sample, I know. But here's the thing that caught my attention.
6:24On those three teams, 91 Bills, 2000 Rams, 18 Chiefs.
6:27Thurman Thomas, MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.
6:30Marshall Falk, MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.
6:32Patrick Mahomes, MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.
6:35Even though we don't give it to quarterbacks anymore.
6:38In fact, the Bills, the year Thurman Thomas did it, Jim Kelly was second in MVP and OPOI.
6:44That's how good the offense was that year. So, I'm coming in hot with my first bet right off the bat today, Brandon.
6:51Josh Allen, 50-1 Offensive Player of the Year. The odds for MVP are obviously way low.
6:56So, this is not a quarterback award usually. But guess when it might be?
7:01Josh Allen was on pace for almost 5,000 passing yards and 77 touchdowns.
7:05That's a lot of touchdowns. And I know pace from two games is ridiculous.
7:09But so is a pace of 77 touchdowns. So, I think if the offense is this good, and if the defense is
7:16pretty bad, the offense is going to have to continue to be this good, I think you could be in the mix.
7:23It's 50-1. We don't have to put down much to get a huge payout there.
7:28So, back to your question. Bills Division. I think this is the right favorite among the favorites to win the division.
7:35FTN has them 82%. I looked it up. At FTN, there are six teams.
7:3975% are better to win the division. It's these teams.
7:42The Bills, Ravens. Sorry, not to win the division.
7:45To make the playoffs. Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs in the AFC.
7:49Seahawks, Niners in the NFC. You can play all six of those together at about 3-1 odds to make the playoffs.
7:55Technically speaking, that's odds in our favor per FTN.
7:58They would have that closer to plus 200, not plus 300.
8:02I can't watch the weekend we just had with every quarterback under the sun getting hurt and want six playoff teams knowing like one injury to one guy.
8:10I can't do it. But I think the Bills have to be the favorite among division favorites right now.
8:16What do you think? Yeah, for sure. I love the bet, by the way.
8:21That is one that I will be logging as well as soon as we hop off here.
8:26Josh Allen is just playing on a different level right now.
8:30He's really entered God mode. And we know that when they get down to the goal line, he's going to be the one that scores.
8:38Joe Brady, since he's taken over as the offensive coordinator, he's doubling up the second place team in terms of quarterback sneaks at the goal line.
8:46Those touchdowns are just simply going to Josh Allen.
8:49Sorry to the James Cook managers that are out there.
8:52But the only other one that I would look at that I think is stiff competition would be the Kansas City Chiefs.
8:59They're at minus 166 right now. Now, one thing that does stand out to me is that third in the NFC West
9:06is the LA Rams at plus 240. That is, I mean, we're talking about just slicing their Super Bowl odds in half.
9:13And they already look like they're back on track.
9:16So that could be one worth taking a look at.
9:19What do we do with these pesky Chicago Bears?
9:22Now, 21% plus 376 to win the NFC North.
9:25Buy or sell the buy low on Chicago, if you can follow the logic there.
9:29Yeah. And as you asked that this morning, since then, we've now got Baygent in concussion protocol.
9:35So not only we got the double dip, we might have Case Keenum playing Chicago Bears football on Monday night in Chicago against the Eagles.
9:43So it was obviously a goofy, weird game this weekend in the rain here in Chicagoland.
9:48Nine to three loss. The Bears had more yardage by about 50 yards that they had 17 to 11 first down advantage.
9:55The problem is they had two turnovers. One of them at the one yard line.
9:59They had a turnover in downs. That was a blocked field goal.
10:03They're 0-3 in the red zone. And when there's only 12 points all game, that's going to be enough to do the trick for you.
10:11So I thought the Bears were the better team.
10:14Probably should have won the game. But that's not how football works.
10:18So how good are the Bears? Probably not 59 points and probably not three points.
10:22Somewhere in the middle of those two. That's probably how good the Bears are.
10:27I don't know necessarily the need to buy the dip long term.
10:31So obviously the big story is Caleb Williams. We give the thumbs up for Caleb Williams.
10:36Where we're thinking like, I personally am thinking Achilles when we see him go down.
10:41Like I'm so glad it's not that it looks very minor comparatively.
10:44We don't know when he'll play. Ben Johnson's offense is so good that Bajan still drove the Bears for two scoring chances late.
10:52Like they could have won the game with him.
10:54And in my rankings matrix, even without Caleb, even if it goes down to Keenum, this goes from a top five offense to still league average.
11:03That's not terrible. You can live with that league average offense.
11:06Terrible defense. Not your best formula. But you can like hang around.
11:10So we go home against the Eagles, a team that they ran all over on Black Friday last year.
11:16So that's possible still to just don't even pass, just run the ball again.
11:20Then Jets, Packers, Falcons, even if Caleb is out up to a month in that stretch, I think they can survive this into the playoff mix.
11:29But between the Caleb injury and the defense, I don't need futures.
11:32So I'm not going to buy low on futures, but I might be buying low on Monday night with the one game underdog look against the Eagles.
11:41Even if it's Case Keenum, you're going to buy.
11:44I mean, if it stays above three, I think that's crazy.
11:47I have even with Keenum. I look, first of all, I don't know if Keenum is the worst quarterback than Baygent.
11:54I'm not sure if that's really a downgrade. And I have Chicago favored against the Eagles.
11:59So if it's above three, I have to play the Bears.
12:03Yeah, that's is tempting. I've got it at plus one and a half for the Chicago Bears with the with Baygent or Keenum, because you're right.
12:11I don't know if we're pricing those guys all that different.
12:14One of their division foes, Minnesota, is one of eight two and O teams, but they won without scoring a touchdown.
12:21And they played against Tyson Baygent, who we might not be the biggest fans of on this show for a quarter.
12:28Buy or sell the Vikings as the phoniest of phonies.
12:31And before we're done with buy or sell, we will give you our one through eight power rankings for the undefeated teams in the NFL.
12:39But buy or sell the phonies being the Minnesota Vikings.
12:42I mean, look, I'm a Vikings fan. So obviously, I bring a little bias into this one, but I will admit it.
12:49The Vikings have been the worst team in both of their games.
12:53So really, we're going to get to our big picture in a bit.
12:57We're going to talk about the O and two teams.
13:00The Vikings should be a buy low in the O and two group.
13:04That's what they should be right now. But they're not.
13:07They won the games and they won it with backup quarterbacks.
13:11This is now the first team in history to win four straight games with different starting quarterbacks.
13:16Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz.
13:19Talk about the four horsemen of the apocalypse right there.
13:22They're actually on a seven game win streak because J.J.
13:25McCarthy had three wins before that, apparently. So however you get there, they're 2-0 against division opponents.
13:31So I don't think they should have won the games.
13:34But the fact remains that they did win the games against division opponents with the backup quarterback.
13:39And now you're set up as 2-0 with probably still the healthiest team in the division.
13:44The Packers, awful offensive line, no run game. We just talked about the Bears defense.
13:49Caleb is hurt. The Lions don't have a defense.
13:52The Vikings are game up in the division. Really a game and a half with the two division games.
13:58I look this up. Kyler Murray, who's played like four plays so far, is 150-1 to win MVP.
14:04Sometimes you win MVP because your team won a couple games without you and kept the record up there.
14:10Like the NFC is wide open. I think you could do crazier bets.
14:14And I'm not giving that one out. But I think you could do crazier bets.
14:18I will say this. The Vikings beat the Packers a week ago.
14:22The Packers could very well be 0-2. They should be 0-2 based on the Jets game this week.
14:28They escaped on that one. I'm going to give you a Packers bet here.
14:32I'm going to scoot that one into the Vikings and Bears sections.
14:36They were 1-9 on third down. 32% success rate.
14:3918% on late downs. And on top of all the bad, they were on the field 38 minutes defensively.
14:45Now it's Thursday night off of overtime. I bought out of the Falcons game.
14:50It's a kitchen sink spot. And they lost tackle Zach Bako Baywole.
14:53That is their most important and only good player on the line.
14:57This is now, for me, with a bullet, the worst offensive line in the league.
15:02They are dead last. It's really bad. Love is not playing well without blocking.
15:06They cannot run the football without Jacobs. They lost Jane Reed.
15:10We talked about how their receiving core was already stretched thin.
15:13They're just running out of dudes. And I know eventually they're going to get some guys back.
15:19But FTN right now, the DVOA company, they have the Packers at 7.6 wins and 20% to make the playoffs.
15:25The Packers are still priced around a coin flip.
15:28Because I think everyone's like, I don't know. NFC North.
15:31I really don't know what's going to happen. I don't know what's going to happen either, but it's not going to involve the Packers.
15:39Packers to not make the playoffs is my bet at 51%.
15:42There's no way that should be near a coin flip.
15:45And we had that. We had that before the season too.
15:49So kind of doubling down on the, uh, make an extra investment in the Packers to miss the playoffs.
15:55Jordan love is getting pressured at a really high rate and he has completed just nine of 27 attempts under pressure.
16:01And with the offensive line issues that Brandon just pointed out, it's not going to get much better.
16:07The Eagles face third down 18 times. Only three of those were third and four or less.
16:13And they converted on 60% of their tries. That is a stat that tells you they're throwing the football.
16:19Well, I know that people see the Titans almost won the game and they covered the spread and the Eagles are dead.
16:26They might just be shifting their identity. Buy or sell the Eagles as a passing team.
16:31Now. I think the Eagles are not a passing team.
16:34They're just also not a running team anymore either.
16:37They're just not an offense team. They're a defense team.
16:40That's what they are. They're still juggling the offensive line already making switches on who's the lineup there.
16:45They can't run the ball at all. They're not creating running lanes.
16:49Saquon Barkley leaving with the stinger. That's early in the season.
16:53And obviously AJ Brown has gone. The weapons are downgrading.
16:56I thought Sunday was less about Jalen hurts more about Devante Smith.
17:00I thought Devante Smith was incredible in that game.
17:03He is a superstar. He looks the part. He carried them.
17:06But in that game against the Titans, Eagles had a 30% success rate on early downs, 64% on late downs.
17:12It's a great way to win a game. It's not sustainable for the season.
17:17That's what the Eagles have been doing. Both games, 32% on early downs.
17:21That is the third percentile. That is terrible on late down 61%.
17:25That's 96th percentile. That's not sustainable. Even if you're Patrick Mahomes, even if you're Josh Allen, that is not sustainable.
17:31That, to me, doesn't tell me the Eagles are a passing team.
17:35That tells me the Eagles are a fraudulent team.
17:38That Jalen hurts has hit the passes and is not going to keep doing that.
17:42I'm firmly on Philly fraud watch. I'm looking at Dallas division odds now.
17:47Now that Giants Island has taken a water with Jackson Dart seemingly out for the season.
17:52And we're going to talk about our 2-0 rankings now.
17:55I have the Eagles pretty low in the 2-0 rankings.
17:58So what are your thoughts on Philly? I am holding out on them because I believe in the defense.
18:04And I think the defense has really underperformed the first two weeks of the season.
18:09Their ceiling is much higher than that. And so I do think that Jalen hurts has probably been incorrectly criticized over the last couple of years.
18:17He had to change the style in which he played.
18:20And it looks like they're doing that. I'd like the way that they're opening up this offense.
18:26Devontae Smith being a dominant one was something that had to happen in order to unlock everything else.
18:31And if they can get Makai Lemon involved, do they drafted in the first round?
18:36Then this offense has a chance to be dynamic.
18:39It'll help if they can run, but it is nice that they can lean on the past now when they need to pick up first downs.
18:47It used to be Jalen hurts barreling into the line and then nothing else.
18:52And so now they have a little bit of a change there.
18:55All right. No buy or sell here, but let's quickly rank the two and O teams, all eight, one through eight.
19:02I'm very curious to see how our rankings match up here.
19:05I'll let you go first. One through eight. Let me, let me go quick because I've talked about most of these teams.
19:12Then you can get a little more into yours.
19:15So I'll grow top tier chiefs, Niners, Seahawks bills.
19:18That's my top four. I could be talked into arranging those for a different order, but that's that group.
19:24Then bangles five. I got Philly six third to last.
19:27And then it's gotta be Vikings and Raiders at the bottom.
19:31I think those two are the clearest for me ranking, but it's definitely Philly is the one I've got just above those two.
19:38What about you? Yeah. Philly is kind of like where there's a tier drop for me because I'm still not exactly sure
19:45what to do with them, but it's the 49ers at the top followed by the chiefs, the bills, the Seahawks and the bangles.
19:52And then that was the easy list to come up with how to rank these other teams is where I struggled a
19:59little bit more, but I went Eagles at six Vikings at seven, just because we do have to give credit to the
20:06fact that Brian Flores is just, he's cooking this year and the Raiders very fun group, a chance to make a wild card.
20:14I did bet that before the year at eight to one, maybe my sharpest preseason bet out there, but we should probably
20:21pump the brakes on a team that beat the dolphins.
20:24And we're given three extra possessions against the LA chargers.
20:27So to review, I'm curious, just let's just look at the top four real quick, how this differs between us, 49ers chiefs bills.
20:34And then Seahawks for me, what was it for you?
20:37Yeah. So we have the same, we're very close.
20:40Actually. We have the same top four, but I flip your one and two and I flip your three and four.
20:47I had chiefs ahead of the Niners. I'd Seahawks ahead of the bills for me, chiefs ahead of the Niners.
20:53It probably, probably right now. Niners should be number one.
20:56They beat the Rams. That was the best win of the season so far.
21:01That's probably me factoring in that the injuries are already getting there for the Niners.
21:06I'm already looking ahead a little bit. And Bill's bottom of that group is just because I started with them at 18th.
21:13Like they're coming a long ways up already to get up to number four here.
21:17So that's why they're at the bottom of that group, but still in the top tier.
21:22And their defense just as simply isn't good enough.
21:25I mean, their defense 27th and success rate. It's hard to be.
21:29It's hard for us to be the people that are going to tell you, yeah, buy all in on a team that
21:36can't defend and gave up 31 points to the Houston Texans whose offense still looks anemic and to the Detroit lions whose
21:43offensive line was all sorts of mangled. Warning. The following song has been rated dangerously catchy and may not be suitable for grownups.
21:50A, B, C, D. In the morning, brush your teeth and don't be late.
21:55Lingo Kids. Only suitable for kids. If it gets stuck in mom's head, that's not our problem.
22:00Lingo Kids! Everything kids love. Download now for free.
22:03ChatGPT can do more than answer questions. It can help you get real work done.
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22:11You bring the goal along with the information it needs, like briefs, notes, files, feedback, calendars, data sets, or project plans.
22:17Then ChatGPT can help turn all of that into something useful.
22:21An analysis, a tracker, a deck outline, a prototype, or a workflow you can keep shaping.
22:26It can also use approved apps, connected tools, files, and browser contexts to help move the work forward.
22:32And you stay in control. You give direction, review drafts, approve actions, redirect the work, and choose the final output.
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22:44Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.
22:48Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting work mode. Available on Plus and Pro Plans.
22:52Lisa, we should tell them about our new show.
22:55Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast.
22:58It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu.
23:01We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart.
23:04And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions.
23:10And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.
23:13I'm not going to get anywhere. You're fighting. That is wild.
23:17I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business.
23:23And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.
23:31We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older and a little wiser.
23:35We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are.
23:40Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.
23:48Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
23:52Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.
23:55Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:00I don't really care. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast.
24:05The true crime comedy podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it.
24:10Each week, I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debrey, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer.
24:15Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour.
24:19You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job.
24:24And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s all the way up to today.
24:30I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers.
24:33Call your grandparents. Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please.
24:37And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube.
24:41If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you.
24:44And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and
24:51protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:57Scam Goddess! Hey everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas Podcast.
25:02We've been catching up with some great friends, Paul Rudd, Michael Buble, Seth Meyers, and making some new friends while getting into
25:09what's really like to have sisters, like Alex and Astrid Neural.
25:12She likes to control everyone and tell everyone what to do.
25:15Okay, well control is a harsh word. Plus, we've been taking your calls, listening to your voicemails, and giving advice.
25:22Listen to Hey Jonas on America's number one podcast network, iHeart.
25:25Follow Hey Jonas and start listening on the free iHeartRadio app today.
25:29Hey Jonas is sponsored by Edible Arrangements. Order yours today at edible.com.
25:33And now, the moment you've all been waiting for.
25:36Isn't that why you're here? Oh, I can't wait.
25:39Let's look at the big picture here. Let's get to our big picture.
25:43What are we doing this week for the big picture?
25:46And remind the folks out there exactly what this segment is.
25:49Yeah, so each week in the big picture is going to look a little bit different.
25:54The buy or sell will be similar to what you just heard.
25:58We'll talk about some of the big games of the weekend, some of the big takes and what we think about them.
26:05The other segments will be pretty similar. The big picture is kind of my version of let's zoom out and let's look at the whole chessboard each week.
26:14So last week, we did what seemed like a game recap thing.
26:18Went through every game because it was week one and every game is new.
26:22We're not doing that this week. We're not going to do that most weeks.
26:27This is not a recap pod. It's a futures podcast.
26:30So this is a spot where we're going to zoom out, look at the chessboard.
26:35For this week, we're going to look at the 0-2 teams.
26:38It's something I do every year. Who among the 0-2 teams could still make the playoffs?
26:43Next week, we'll do the opposite. We're going to look at who's 3-0.
26:47Who might miss the playoffs? Some weeks, we maybe will do like an MVP ranking.
26:52Maybe we'll look at a division or conference. Anywhere that I think there's going to be some futures value, we'll zoom in on that.
27:00Kind of tell tomorrow's story today. Try to get ahead of the market.
27:04So let me set us up on the 0-2 teams here.
27:07How often does an 0-2 team make the playoffs?
27:10Since 1990, 12.8% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs.
27:13About 1 in 8. Since we expanded to 14 playoff teams, that was 2020.
27:17We're up to about 15.7% now. So more like 1 in 6.5.
27:21So somewhere in that range. Last year, we had three.
27:24Houston, Chicago, and Carolina. All 0-2, all in the playoffs.
27:28Previous year, three again. Baltimore, Denver, and the Rams.
27:30That's two years in a row. We've had three 0-2 teams.
27:34That extra game and the extra spot, they're giving a little more cushion now.
27:38So there is some room to breathe for these 0-2 teams.
27:42The Texans, they show up in this column I do every year pretty frequently because they love to stink for the first two weeks every year.
27:50They did this back in 2023. That was my pick 25-1 then.
27:54They came back on Texans Island, won us the division.
27:57That was only one of seven teams to start 0-3 and come back and make the playoffs.
28:02The Texans have done that now two in the last three years.
28:06The Chargers in 1992 are the only 0-4 team to make the playoffs.
28:10So 0-2, you're alive. 0-3, you're in pretty big trouble.
28:140-4, you're probably dead. So you have to start with, let's win this week.
28:18And then a bit of hope and non-hope. 2022 Bengals 0-2 recovered to go to the Super Bowl, but only three 0-2
28:25teams ever have gone on to win the Super Bowl.
28:28So you got to get there. You got to start out that way.
28:32So last year, we had 10 teams 0-2. Three of them made the playoffs.
28:37Five of them finished bottom of the division. So don't think there's hope for everybody here.
28:42We're going to get through some of the bad teams pretty quickly.
28:46What does it all mean? Something like one in six, one in seven chance that you might rebound and make the playoffs.
28:52So that's about a three quarters of a chance.
28:55We get at least one of these teams we're going to talk about now making the playoffs.
29:01It's about a one in three chance we get more than one of the teams.
29:05So we're going to rank them all, eight teams from least to most bettable to make the playoffs.
29:11No thanks to the rest of the league. There are 16 one in one teams.
29:16So half of the league is 500. They're out.
29:19We'll give you the division odds. We'll give you the playoff odds.
29:23I always do stuff in tiers. So Brandon, you'll introduce our tiers and our teams and we'll go through them one by one.
29:30All right, let's start with tier five. Sorry, but it's already over.
29:34Team number eight, the Miami Dolphins, 1% to win the division.
29:37That feels generous. 5% at DK predict to make the playoffs.
29:41I mean, what else can you say about the Miami Dolphins other than that?
29:45This is one of the worst teams in the history of the league.
29:49Yeah, it's looking pretty rough on the Dolphins. We don't have to spend too long here.
29:54We had fun with our Malik Willis escalator week one.
29:57I learned a hard way betting Miami spread against the Niners.
30:01That did not go well for me. They scored a touchdown in their first five possessions.
30:06During that stretch, 34 plays, 342 yards. That is 10 yards a play.
30:10It's a first down every single play for the entire part of the game that mattered because this defense in particular is so bad.
30:18They are number 32 by a wide margin defensively.
30:21There's just not a lot of talent up and down the roster.
30:24On offense, it's A-chan and I don't know after that.
30:28On defense, it's Jordan Brooks. I like some of the guys on the line, Patrick Paul, Aaron Brewer.
30:33We're naming names and we named off like two or three guys you already don't really know listening at home and that's the strength of the roster.
30:42I don't think we need to say too much else.
30:45And in any of these cases, the easiest way of the playoffs is winning your division.
30:50Well, the Jets look better and you're also chasing Buffalo and New England.
30:54So that's not great. And by the way, as if the Dolphins need any help losing, they've now played the Raiders and the Niners, both 2-0.
31:02They play next, the Chiefs, the Vikings, and the Bengals all 2-0.
31:06So we gave the Dolphins, the worst team in league history maybe, five 2-0 teams to start out the season.
31:12You said 1% seemed generous for playoffs. Here's my verdict.
31:16You can bet the Dolphins 175-1 at one book right now to make the playoffs.
31:20That is implied 0.6%. By FTN odds, that's still double as high as it should be.
31:25They have them 0.3%. 1% is too high. Dolphins are cooked.
31:29Rubber stamped. Retweet. Number seven, the Tennessee Titans. 3% to win the division.
31:338% to make the playoffs at DK predict. And maybe there's a little bit of life in Cam Ward and Robert Salas bunch.
31:40I don't think we can write them off as easy.
31:44Yeah, we talked about the Titans-Eagles game a little bit.
31:47They wanted to turn Jalen Hurts into a quarterback.
31:50Well, they were successful, and then he was successful.
31:52So he came back, got the win late. The Titans actually had a more successful game on down-to-down.
31:58Cam Ward, not that bad, especially against that defense.
32:01There were some signs of life, which is more than we can usually say.
32:05The problem is they didn't actually win. They still lost the game.
32:09They're still only 0-2 section. Now they're coming off 36 minutes defensively on what was like a 1,000-degree field, and everyone kept
32:16talking about the cleats are melting and everything. They didn't win a home game against the Jets.
32:22That's one of their best chances for a win.
32:24Here's the case against, and we've talked about all preseason.
32:28Bottom five quarterback in the league. Bottom five offensive line.
32:31Bottom five coaching. That's your core of the team.
32:34And frankly, five is pretty generous on all those rankings, if I'm being honest.
32:38The schedule is still tough because the division is tough.
32:41Look, I know the AFC South right now is 1-7, and the 1 was against the Browns.
32:47This division is better than that. So we're going to get to multiple other teams in the division here.
32:53They're only one back, and now they get the Giants with no jacks and dart.
32:57So that's the case for the Titans, is the Giants with no jacks and dart.
33:02But they already got the Jets, and they already got the Eagles.
33:06They already have their chances. My verdict is that up after the Giants, it's Baltimore and Houston.
33:11So even if you win that game, you're still 1-4.
33:14You're probably 0-5. I can't buy Titan stock when I don't like the quarterback.
33:19I don't like the line. I don't like the coaches.
33:22Yeah. Even eye test-wise, Cam Ward looked much better in week two.
33:26Stats-wise, still not so great. 13 of 20, 183 yards.
33:29He did have two rushing touchdowns. So is that the verdict then?
33:33Not buying the Tennessee Titans? Not buying the Titans.
33:36On to the next one. We have the Washington Commanders at number 6, 3% to win the division, 12% to make the playoffs at DK predict.
33:44And a lot of this is going to come down to the quarterback position.
33:48The elbow dislocation, the re-dislocation as the docs on Twitter are calling it.
33:52It's the same elbow. It's more likely to happen the second time.
33:56I don't need to get into the details because it's kind of gross.
34:00Also gross is that Marcus Mariota is still starting quarterback in the NFL.
34:05So what do we do with the Commanders? Yeah.
34:07Speaking of teams that almost beat the Eagles, we're going back to back.
34:11Titans and Commanders here. Washington was one play away from overtime against the Eagles.
34:16They were one play away from Ty in halftime against the Cowboys.
34:20Unfortunately, that one play in each scenario did not go their direction.
34:24They actually outgained Dallas by 57 yards. But that one play against Dallas obviously is the play that he dislocated his elbow on, Jaden Daniels.
34:31I think that decision to go for it on, I think it was third and goal basically.
34:37But from the one-yard line, I think it's the right decision, frankly.
34:41You've got to get some points to go beat the Cowboys.
34:44Sometimes the decision doesn't work out in your favor.
34:47And that decision, I think, is going to end up costing Dan Quinn his job.
34:52Because without Jaden Daniels, the Commanders are DOA. I taught this before this season.
34:56Their schedule starting out is so rough. Here you are 0-2 in the division.
35:01So you already have a huge hole. Games you could have won but didn't win.
35:05So you're in a huge hole in the division.
35:08And up next, it's Seattle with Mariota now, who might have Darnold back.
35:12Then you're going to London to play Indianapolis. Then you're coming home with no rest.
35:17And I always hate that against the Giants. Then you go at San Francisco, Philly, and the Rams after that.
35:23When does Jaden Daniels return here? So we don't have a good timeline yet.
35:28But if you kind of do the math on when does it make sense, are you bringing him back after one game away to go to London?
35:36Like, that's pretty fast. That seems too fast. Okay, two games away now means the team has been in London for a week without you.
35:44You've been here rehabbing. And now you're just going to jump right back in and start.
35:49Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But if you miss that game, now you're playing a Monday night game in
35:56San Fran, but a bye week after that. So if you skip that game, it's three extra weeks to recover.
36:03And now come back in health. That makes more sense.
36:06But now you're 1-5. Now you're 0-6. And why are we rushing Jaden Daniels back at all at that point?
36:12So this is the fear that we already lost Larry Tunsell for the season.
36:17We don't know how long Jaden Daniels is out.
36:19But without him in the lineup, this is a bottom-five offense now for me.
36:24And it's a bottom-five defense already. It's just DOA on the season.
36:28This was a team that was one of my favorite preseason unders.
36:31I bet alts. I bet the worst record. I'm along for the ride at this point.
36:37I'm not happy Jaden Daniels got hurt. Obviously, you want to see a star quarterback out there.
36:42But with him not playing and with Tunsell sidelined as well, the verdict for me is pretty easy.
36:48This is a worst-case scenario, and you can't bet on Washington.
36:51All right, that wraps tier five. Sorry, but it's already over.
36:55On to tier number four, a lone wolf. The worst playoff bet on the board.
36:59I guess if it's the worst, it has to stand alone.
37:03Number five, the LA Chargers, 7% to win the division, 21% to make the playoffs at DK predict.
37:09I have a feeling I know what it is you don't like about these Chargers, but go ahead and wax poetic on it.
37:16But is there anything to like about these Chargers?
37:19They're so disappointing so far. 26-14 losses both games against what was supposed to be the softest part of the schedule.
37:25Brandon, we talked about this team last week on this podcast.
37:29I was like, oh, no, you blew the easiest game.
37:32Well, now you better get this one because it gets real tough after that.
37:36But every show you watch, every podcast, every YouTube, every ESPN is flashing the Chargers schedule at you right now.
37:43Look how tough it gets. We did that last week, and we already bet the Chargers to miss the playoffs minus 120 then.
37:50Now they're more like 80% pricing to miss the playoffs.
37:53So I hope you got in then. You can't come back from this because you gave away the two surest wins on the schedule.
38:01I'm sure you've seen some of these stats, but I have to give them.
38:05They're the second team ever to lose both the first two weeks by six-point favorites or more.
38:11The good news is the other one was the 2022 Bengals.
38:14We talked about that made the Super Bowl, but they lost by three both times, not by 12, not to the Cardinals and the Raiders.
38:22These terrible teams. This one I had to say.
38:25The second team ever to lose back-to-back home games to start the season by double digits against sub-200 teams.
38:31The most ridiculous stat because there's like eight clauses there.
38:34The other team that did that was the 1926 Racine Tornadoes, who literally dissolved as a franchise the next game after that.
38:41That's how embarrassing it was to lose those games.
38:44By the way, the quarterback of that team, Mitt Romney Sr.
38:47So there's your little fun fact for the day.
38:50Wow. Yeah, that Mitt Romney. Chargers defense, no Jesse Minter.
38:53They're missing him. They let the Cards and Raiders go up and down the field.
38:58This should have been worse. They had six fumbles on Sunday.
39:02Herbert had three fumbles. They recovered five or else it's even worse.
39:05So you just can't like a lot about this team right now.
39:09Everything looks hard offensively. Mike McDaniel was supposed to be the answer.
39:13And Justin Herbert just looks so uncomfortable right now.
39:16He looks just bad. No more excuses. You're just not good enough right now.
39:20Joe Alt and the rest of the line has not been good enough.
39:24The interior is struggling. They had the worst rushing EPA in the league this week with the third highest run rate.
39:31I don't know what you're doing with that. They don't have any weapons outside of Lad McConkie.
39:36He's hurt already. Njoku and Kohler, the guys that got out in free agency that I was excited about, they're both on IR now.
39:44So they're only left with one tight end on the roster.
39:48The second tight end on this team now is Justin Herbert's brother.
39:51For real. That's the guy that they're going to have to bring out the practice squad and play now.
39:57So, look, I know it's Jim Harbaugh. He usually makes the playoffs.
40:01I know that there's a floor there. The offense can really only get better.
40:06But the schedule you've seen everywhere. Up next. At Buffalo.
40:09At Seattle. Denver. At Kansas City. Rams. Texans. At Ravens.
40:12Your underdogs. In all seven of those games. They have the second hardest remaining schedule.
40:17Barely ahead of the Cardinals. So, we bet this last week.
40:20We're ahead of the game. Chargers missed the playoffs.
40:23Minus 120 then. It's now 81%. FTN projects the Chargers at 5.8 wins.
40:27I don't think it's going to get that bad.
40:30But it's really bad. They have the 90% to miss the playoffs.
40:34Easy verdict for me. Because we gave it last week.
40:37It's over. Chargers. You already missed your shot at the easy ones.
40:41And you might have missed your shot to bet this.
40:44If you didn't listen to the Futures pod last week.
40:47And if you are in the camp where you say, no.
40:51BA is wrong about the Chargers. They're going to make the playoffs.
40:54Plus 240 to make the postseason. You are better off just taking their money line on Sunday.
41:00Yeah. Plus 275. Because I think you would agree.
41:03They're not making the playoffs if they lose to the bills.
41:06Oh, and three. It's just too tall a mountain to climb for most teams.
41:11No matter the schedule. But you laid out the schedule they have in front of them.
41:16If they lose on Sunday. So if you think they're going to make the playoffs.
41:20Just bet them on the money line. Yeah. And bet them all those other money lines too.
41:26Because you're going to have to win most of those games too.
41:30To get these back. And you're going to have plenty of chances.
41:33So look. I'm not counting the Chargers dead on the season.
41:37I might have to bet the Chargers game to game at some point.
41:41But Chargers futures. I think we've already ripped those up.
41:44Here number three. Imagination station. Number four. The Atlanta Falcons.
41:478% to win the division. 15% to make the playoffs at DK predict.
41:51And the fact that this team has been as bad as they are.
41:56And they are 8% to win the division. Just tells you how pathetic the NFC South is.
42:01But they are getting Michael Penix back. And perhaps that lifts the floor.
42:05It definitely lifts the floor. But perhaps that gets us to the window in some regard on the Atlanta Falcons.
42:11Are we buying any stock here in Atlanta? You know, I'll be honest.
42:16I thought that I might have to come in here and tell us to buy a stock on Atlanta.
42:22But the prices are factoring in all the reasons I thought we might have to.
42:26Because each year I do my island pick. My worst or first.
42:30And I was like, okay. I guess I'm going to have to give out the NFC South team.
42:36Because the division is terrible. It's wide open. Well, guess what?
42:39That gets priced into the pricing for betting. And then you get like, you know, 8 to 1 odds for Atlanta to
42:46make the playoffs or win the division. And it's not good enough.
42:50So look. I don't have any hidden silver linings about the first two games.
42:54It's all bad. The Steelers and Panthers losses were terrible.
42:58Atlanta's not played a play in the red zone yet for the season.
43:02We're two weeks in. They have not snapped the ball in the red zone.
43:06They have minus 53 EPA on offense so far.
43:09That is the worst in two games since the 2006 Raiders.
43:13That team averaged 10.5 points a game, went 2-14, and drafted Jamarcus Russell.
43:17That's the sort of thing that we're talking about with how bad the Falcons have been.
43:22I call this Tier Imagination Station. It's only them.
43:25Because here's the thing. There's no real shame losing two games with your third and fourth string quarterbacks.
43:30You're supposed to lose with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand.
43:33It just sucks that it happened right now. And it sucks that it happened against teams you probably could have beaten with a better version.
43:41They almost beat the Steelers anyway. So if you imagine that Michael Penix is ready and he's got the goods, okay, let's imagine.
43:49We've got plenty of weapons. The offensive line plays a little better with the real quarterback.
43:54You've got the bad division. The problem is it's still a pretty bad roster overall.
43:58I don't have a lot of faith in the coaching.
44:02And the schedule is not exactly kind. Next three weeks, by the way, all Falcons in prime time.
44:07Three games in a row. So we better hope they're at least watchable at the Packers Thursday night, at the Saints, then
44:14the Ravens, then Bears, Niners, Bucks, Bengals, Chiefs. I didn't skip any teams.
44:18That's who the Falcons are playing. That's the next eight games.
44:22No, thank you. I can't imagine enough. And it's already priced in at this number.
44:27So my verdict here is I thought this was going to be such a gross, gross bat that I have to give out.
44:34But no matter how much you squint and imagine it's already priced into the odds.
44:39I don't need it. Get out of here, Falcons.
44:42I like the talent on this roster. The problem is, is that a lot of the talent on this roster isn't playing.
44:49I mean, we haven't seen the quarterbacks that I think there was two is properly criticized.
44:54But at this point, it's almost become a meme at how criticized he is.
44:58If he was the starting quarterback and didn't have that oblique injury to start the year, I think he could help them maintain a competent offense.
45:06They have enough weaponry and Stefanski is a good enough play caller where they would have been able to be effective.
45:13They can't do that with Cooper Rush. Their offensive line is actually one of the, I would put them top 10 in the NFL.
45:21Defensively, they're without their two-star edge rushers. And now they're without AJ Terrell, their star defensive back.
45:26So I want so bad. If you've been listening to me on the favorites throughout the offseason, you know how much I've bought into the Falcons.
45:34I want this team to be good. They're just not.
45:37And maybe Michael Penix can fix things, but not enough to make an investment at this point.
45:43Tier 2 most likely doesn't necessarily mean best bets.
45:46Houston Texans, 41% to win the division. We're above 50% at 54% at DK predict to make the playoffs.
45:52I am of the same mindset as you. I want to bet the Texans, but the price doesn't feel right.
45:58Yeah, I thought that was just the free space answer for this one.
46:02And I don't think that the price is terrible, to be honest.
46:06It's basically right around at my number. That's just not a number I'm looking to bet usually.
46:11I'm mostly unbothered by the Houston Texans being 0-2.
46:14I think most of the time, if you lose to Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in back-to-back weeks in November, it happens.
46:21You know, you're going to lose those games sometimes.
46:24And these are pretty winnable games. Josh Allen was a dropped interception away from that being a win for Houston.
46:30And Cincinnati, the margin looks bad. But I thought Houston was actually the better team.
46:35They had 100 more yards. They had a higher success rate.
46:38They had 10 more first downs. They just went 0-4 in the red zone and a little bit self-inflicted.
46:44D'Amico Ryan's on that one, which he does do sometimes.
46:48I thought last week we talked about Josh Allen making one-of-one plays.
46:51I thought Jamar Chase did that this week. He just was doing these crazy catches.
46:56And look, you hold the Bengals to 20 points and their lowest success rate in three seasons, the healthy Bengals who have
47:03lost Joe Burrow for a bunch of those games.
47:06That's a great defensive performance. This defense, I have no problem with still.
47:10The offense, well, we're never too excited about the Texans' offense.
47:14And right now, no Nico Collins is the real problem.
47:17If Nico was playing, I'd still buy at this number.
47:20And maybe he plays Sunday and maybe he looks good.
47:23But he misses about four games a year for his career.
47:27He's already hurt. The Colts are a team he kills for his career.
47:31So this is a big matchup for him to potentially not be out this week.
47:35They don't have any other good weapons. My apologies to my guy, Dalton Schultz.
47:40But there's a reason you're catching 12 passes. The line's not good.
47:44The run game was successful on one of 15 plays against the Bengals.
47:48And that was a receiver run. So we thought good on week one with the run game.
47:53It went sideways against the Bengals. I think it's a bottom five offense when Nico is not out there.
47:59So that said, the defense is so good that this is still kind of like the Drew Locke Seahawks to me.
48:06And we just saw them have a huge win this weekend.
48:09I still think this is a pretty good team.
48:12The schedule. Okay. You got at Indy this weekend is missing a couple guys.
48:17You play Dallas after that returning from Brazil. So no rest in that spot.
48:21Then you go to London to have a Jaguars game.
48:24That is a quote home game for Jacksonville. That's a nice favor in a division game as well.
48:30By my count, I think the Texans will be favored every game until Christmas Eve.
48:35They have a pretty easy winnable schedule left on the book.
48:38So I like the Texans. I'm unbothered. I will be looking to play Texans game to game.
48:44I looked at even Super Bowl odds, AFC odds for this team.
48:47The problem is I think the book seemed to like the Texans too.
48:51Cause like you said, I just don't find a lot of value in the number.
48:56I still think the division is actually pretty tough.
48:59I think Jacksville and Indy both look pretty solid still.
49:02And 41% division, 54% playoffs. I think that's basically right about the number that I would have them.
49:08So verdict for me is kind of complicated. I believe in the Texans.
49:12I just don't see a lot of betting value.
49:15So I have two teams I think are better bets to make right now.
49:19I wonder if it's worth it to hold out on that Texans bet, because I still think they can win the division.
49:26Their schedule lines up much more favorable than Jacksonville's does.
49:30So as long as Houston takes care of the Jacksonville matchup, I think everything else should work itself out to where Houston
49:36can still take advantage and win the division. Indianapolis, Indianapolis, I'm not worried about all that much as a real threat, but we'll get to them.
49:45But the thing that I, the thing that I struggle with is, do I wait?
49:49Because Indianapolis feels like a pretty sharp side coming up on Sunday.
49:53And if the Texans are Oh, and three, I mean, that's the world that you probably want to be living in as
50:00an Oh, and three Texans team to either win the division or make the playoffs.
50:05So maybe we wait on the Houston Texans. I think so.
50:08I think, I think you wait and watch for your spot.
50:12And look, it's a long season where I'm giving you six futures bets today.
50:16So I am no stranger to putting another futures bet out there.
50:20I bet Houston just last week on the podcast.
50:23I will almost guarantee you, I will be back betting Houston futures again sometime down the road.
50:28I just think this, this is the spot in the Oh and two to bet them.
50:33They're the easy choice here. We're not looking for easy choices.
50:37I'm not even looking for winning tickets. I'm looking for ROI.
50:40And I don't think that they offer the right value on the ticket.
50:45Here, one of the two Oh and two bets to make right now.
50:49I may disagree with one of these, but we'll talk about it.
50:52The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26% to win the division, 28% to make the playoffs at DK predict.
50:58You like these bucks. Man, I just can't get off of this team.
51:02I guess the 23, 19 loss and basically a hurricane to Cleveland.
51:06That was ugly. I'm not going to make excuses for it.
51:09Bucs are barely moving the ball. They're settling for field goals all game.
51:13I think they just kind of thought this was a freebie.
51:17I did too. This was my survivor pick. So I'm out on survivor for the season.
51:22Thanks for that. With the two and a half hour delay, just to rub it in a little bit more.
51:28After that weather delay, they look pretty good. They come out, they pick up five yards, eight, six, three, six, six.
51:35They're moving right down the field because the Browns are just going to push back on the slippery surface.
51:41Then you get a second and a four and you're just like running the ball.
51:46Six, eight yards of pop right at them. You call a pass.
51:50You get a hold because that's what happens on a slick field.
51:53You can't get any footing on. Now you're on the second and 14.
51:57Now you're dead. Everything went awry after that. And look, it shouldn't come down to that.
52:03You shouldn't have to need that to beat the Browns and they lost.
52:07So it's been pretty bad. Baker has been terrible.
52:09I had him 10th in my top 10 of quarterbacks this year.
52:13Last year I had Geno Smith 10th. So maybe you don't want to be 10th in my quarterback rankings going into the season anymore.
52:21That's not going great for me. Baker's been all over the place.
52:25Week one, all behind the line scrimmage passes. Week two, 12 and a half ADOT.
52:29All just chucking it down the field. But he's overthrowing guys by like five yards.
52:34Or it's no rhythm for him. I think a lot of it is Zach Robinson, the offensive play caller.
52:40I just think does not seem like he's adjusted a lot from what he's doing in Atlanta, even with very different players here.
52:47A lot of just like, hey, just throw the ball to Bijan.
52:51Wait, we don't have Bijan anymore? What's happening? Where has he had on this team?
52:56Like you've got different dudes now. The offensive line, I thought this could be the number one offensive line.
53:02They don't look anything like that. Tristan Wurfs hasn't been good enough.
53:06My guy Cody Malk at right guard has struggled so far.
53:09The defense has not gotten any pass rush. Alec Anzalone at linebacker, maybe the worst linebacker in the league so far.
53:16It's just bad. It's all bad. The Bucs right now have lost 11 straight games against the spread.
53:22That is, there's catch the falling knife. And then there's like step outside into the raining falling knives all around.
53:28And that's what the Buccaneers are. Last week with the Chargers, we said, okay, that was the surest one on the schedule.
53:35You blew it. That's this with the Buccaneers. It was a double whammy.
53:39You lost your easiest one right as the Saints, presumed your top rival, win at Baltimore.
53:44One of their hardest games this season. For me, that is a one and a half win projection swing from what I had going into the season.
53:53I like the Bucs division so much because I had a three win margin them ahead of everyone else.
53:59That's half the margin. The margin for error is gone now.
54:02Luckily, it's the NFC South. So the margin for error is still there a little bit in that way.
54:08The problem is I thought Brandon before Sunday, I thought it'd be becoming here.
54:13And I'd have to say, you know what? But you might want to buy some 0-2 New Orleans Saints stock because have you looked at that upcoming schedule?
54:22I'll let you talk about the schedule a little bit later.
54:25But man, is it juicy. Yeah. I think it's tough later on.
54:29They play week 11 to 13 at the Bears, at the Bengals, and the Packers.
54:34They play the Bucs twice the last four. I don't think they're going to run away and hide.
54:39But it's pretty easy this next seven games. The Buccaneers, not so easy.
54:43Minnesota, Green Bay, at Dallas, and Pittsburgh. It could get ugly.
54:47It could get bad. This could be the end for the Bulls' era if they lose a few more of these games.
54:54I do think this is a great kitchen sink spot for the Bucs against the Vikings this week.
55:00Unfortunately for my guys, I still don't believe in the Saints.
55:03The Falcons stink. We talked about them. I think the Panthers need to play offense against a real team before I care about them.
55:11So the Bucs still get to play six games against those teams.
55:14That's the best news for them. You don't want to bet playoffs.
55:18If you're getting the playoffs out of 0-2, it's because you're in the division.
55:23You just want to bet the division here. My numbers still say some value.
55:27So here I am telling you to bet the Bucs at 23% to make the playoffs.
55:32Implied plus 335. I still have this team favorites to win the division.
55:36They're only a game back. FTN has them 36%.
55:39I have it closer to still a coin flip for them.
55:43Speaking of doubling down, here's a second Buccaneers bet.
55:46I gave it up last week. Ruben Bain is now 2% to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
55:51Guess why? Because he's done nothing for two games.
55:54He has zero stats of any sort as far as I can tell.
55:58He was the favorite two weeks ago. He was under plus 500 two weeks ago.
56:03You can't tell me that your odds should be 10 times worse right now from two games.
56:08It is a long season. You get like six, seven sacks over the next 15 weeks.
56:13No one will give a rip what happened these first two weeks.
56:17That's a terrible, terrible number price. So my verdict here is I'm kicking and dragging myself back across the line.
56:24Ruben Bain, D. Roy Stock, and Bucs division 23%.
56:26We're going to triple down. I'm going down with the pirate ship on this one.
56:31Boy, my man is a glutton for punishment going back to the well on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
56:37I can't hate on this one too much because the first bet I made for week three was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus two and a half.
56:45And on the money line, this is the ultimate get right for them against the most fraudulent two and O team in
56:52the NFL with Kyler Murray making his re-debut. There you go.
56:56Skol. All right. What about the team that finishes number one, the Indianapolis Colts, 17% to win the division, 28% to make the playoffs at DK predict.
57:04There are things to like about this Indianapolis Colts team, but they have a glaring weakness that you all may know.
57:11But what is it that puts them at the top of the list for you?
57:16Yeah. If you're surprised by this one, please know that I am too.
57:20This is not at all what I would have expected to come out with here, especially because I like the Texans so much.
57:27And that is who the Colts play this weekend in what seems like an elimination game since three teams don't make it back to the playoffs.
57:35But my number is like the Colts on that one for the spot this weekend.
57:40And my numbers like the Colts here and betting is about numbers.
57:44Betting is not about who do you think is going to do the thing.
57:48It's about let's give you some odds and see if you can get the right prediction and match up the numbers.
57:55So Colts Sunday night, they looked really good. They went toe to toe with the Chiefs, who I think are one of the best teams in the league.
58:04They moved the ball all game. I could tell you a lot of the stats, but you watched it.
58:10They look good out there. Compare that to the Broncos six days earlier against the Chiefs who couldn't do anything.
58:16Now the Colts are feeling pretty good about that, but give up 523 yards to the Chiefs.
58:22So that's not great, including they have now allowed the most yards in the first two games in NFL history by 143.
58:29So not even by a little bit by like multiple extra touchdown drives.
58:33They allowed the best Chiefs offensive performance since 2020, 22.
58:36So since the pre-Matt Nagy era, they now are a tired defense that just played 37 minutes on the field in overtime
58:43facing the Texans in a must win game. I don't like any of that stuff, but there's no real harm losing to the Ravens and Chiefs.
58:51That was your toughest stretch of the season. You're supposed to lose those games.
58:56They're big underdogs. You get the Texans with maybe no Nico Collins, Colts killer.
59:00You get the commanders after that now with no Jane Daniels.
59:04That's a pretty good stroke of luck. You get Pittsburgh with still Aaron Rodgers.
59:08That's a stroke of luck. If he stays in the lineup and then the Titans, they can win those games.
59:14And we just saw against the Chiefs, they can win any game.
59:18Shane Steichen has his team ready to start the game out.
59:22Do you know that with Steichen, the Colts are top three on their first drive of the game in points, yards, and EPA?
59:29They did it against the Chiefs. They went right down the field and got a score.
59:34That's important because you want to play on the front foot with this team.
59:38You want to play with the lead, run the ball with the best run blocking line in the game with Jonathan Taylor.
59:45And you don't want your defense out on the field because there's a reason I haven't said much about the defense.
59:52It stinks. The defense is so bad. They got the worst linebackers in the league.
59:57I think there's some talent out there on the line and at corner once they get a little bit healthier there.
60:03But I think this team has the best offense of any of the eight teams we're talking about here in my rankings.
60:10I don't love them losing Alec Pierce, but I think Slayton can kind of fill that role for them.
60:16Josh Downs is pretty good. Daniel Jones can only really get healthier coming back from that Achilles injury.
60:22I think there's a lot of runaway here. And just from a team rating standpoint, Texans are my number one out of this group of eight very easily.
60:31Colts are second for me of the group. Ahead of the Buccaneers now as the healthier team.
60:36They have the easiest remaining schedule of these eight teams.
60:39And now the numbers. Numbers are value in betting.
60:42The value is on the Colts. FTN has the Colts 22% to win the division.
60:47For comparison, that's about the same as Denver. It's about the same as the Saints, the Bears, the Rams.
60:53We don't think those teams are dead in the division.
60:56Why does it feel like the Colts are dead?
60:59They're only a game back right now because nobody else is winning games there either.
61:04They are this bet kind of can be a money line proxy bet against the Texans, as you mentioned in this 0-2 matchup this weekend.
61:12And in the AFC, if you look around, I don't love the Broncos or the Patriots.
61:17I'm out on the Chargers. There are spots in the AFC.
61:20So I don't want division here because I think they could, but I want the whole thing.
61:26I want to make the playoffs and get me in as a wild card, get me in as a division.
61:32Give me some options here. 21% to make the playoffs.
61:35I think it's a terrible number. That's about what FTN has them to win the division, but they also have 50% to make the wild card.
61:43So 37%. We're getting implied plus 376. I think it's a huge margin in our favor.
61:49And I also like that even if they lose to the Texans this week, which I think is very possible where I
61:56don't feel so dead, not having a division ticket there.
61:59So we're not buried. I would love for them to win for this bet.
62:03I might end up still in the Texans in that game too, but I'm going to close this out with my bet
62:10on the Indianapolis Colts and my verdict. 21% to make the playoffs.
62:14That's the trade. This is a team that started seven one last year.
62:18I think it's a long season. I think the number is in our favor.
62:22Ah, I hate the fact that you just kind of sold me on that.
62:27I really wanted the punch back. I really wanted the punch back on the Colts, but the more you laid it out
62:34there, I have such a hard time getting past how bad this defense has been.
62:39Number one in the league and points per game allowed so far this season, they have taken on two elite quarterbacks, but
62:46the chief's offense has not been elite for the last couple of years.
62:50And they made them look that way. So I got to dock them for that.
62:54But when I start to look at Indianapolis and their offensive upside, if your defense is going to be that bad, and
63:01I don't have a lot of hope that they're going to turn that around.
63:06Your offense has to have a very high ceiling.
63:09Well, we saw what that looked like last year.
63:12The offensive line is still elite. Jonathan Taylor is still elite.
63:15If Daniel Jones can get back to full health, be a running threat.
63:19I really like Josh Downs. I'm spending way too much money on my fab budget on him today in fantasy.
63:25Uh, and they are right now, and we're only two weeks into the season, but if we're going to use the defensive
63:32stats against them, we can use the office, the offensive stats for them.
63:37Third best conversion rate in the, in the red zone that, uh, so far for the Indianapolis cults.
63:42So, all right, whatever I'm into, let's go. Our weekly trading segment is coming up.
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64:27I mean, how long am I supposed to keep it for a week or so?
64:31Buy low, sell high. Time for our weekly trading segment.
64:35I am your weekly stock analyst, Brandon Kravitz. And we have my favorite buying opportunity that we will look to sell at a later date.
64:42Brandon Anderson will chime in with his as well.
64:45It might be time to add Tyler Shuck to the portfolio.
64:49VA 4% to win MVP. We'll at least get some down the road value along the way, the way that things are tracking pass.
64:56Everybody's eyes are set on Josh Allen right now.
64:59And it's allowing Chuck to fly just enough under the radar where I still think we have a buying opportunity at 4%
65:06passing yards, number one in the NFL, they've got an electric offense.
65:10Chris Olave looks like a legit top five wide receiver in the league right now.
65:15And they still have a chance to get better.
65:18Jordan Tyson hasn't hit the field yet. So the ceiling could be even higher upcoming schedule, not overly daunting Raiders, Falcons, Vikings,
65:25giant Steelers, couple of good pass rushes in there, but games that are winnable.
65:29And we know that this is a team stat as much as anything else.
65:33I think the saints lining up pretty well to have a good season and Tyler Shuck being the key reason why.
65:40So this is the perfect bet for the weekly trading section, in my opinion, because I think Brandon that this bet has a 0.00% chance of cashing.
65:49However, that's not the segment. The segment is buy a ticket now, sell the ticket later.
65:54Can we get some price on it? And with that schedule coming up, I do worry.
65:59Kelvin Banks is out now. They're tackled. So you talked about some of the pass rush there.
66:04I don't love that for them. I'd love for you not to fall behind double digits in the first half every game.
66:11How about start with that for the saints? But I think you're right.
66:15The schedule is very soft. This is definitely a podcast.
66:18I wanted to back the saints in some way.
66:21Then they kind of went out and spoiled it with the win.
66:25So maybe this is a way around that. I'll keep my bet very simple here.
66:30Give me Jeremiah Love offensive rookie of the year.
66:33It's plus 430. It's about 20% at prediction markets.
66:36It is a choice by default because you look at the top six available.
66:40Jadarian Price, second in odds. Hurt his chest. Hurt his shoulders.
66:43Splitting carries. This was a shot. He was the guy to get all the carries and he didn't do it.
66:50And now Charbonnet is back soon. Mendoza ain't coming anytime soon.
66:53The Raiders are 2-0 with Kirk. He's not getting benched right now.
66:57Colonel Tate not doing anything. Boston and Concepcion, they're kind of splitting the votes on their side of the things.
67:03They don't have a quarterback. Zach, that's it. That's our top six right now.
67:08So by Homer Simpson logic, the two greatest words in English language default.
67:12Give me Jeremiah Love, who we knew was going to start slow because the high ankle each week that passes, his stock
67:19should get better and more and more opportunities. So I like him.
67:23I did look at Jonah Coleman, 30-1 in Denver.
67:26There's some opportunity there. That's the one name down the list I looked at.
67:30But just give me the guy we all thought was the best rookie in the class and let him be rookie of the year.
67:38Yeah. Yeah. It's hard to win an award like this if you're not a dual threat.
67:43And it seems like they really like Jonah Coleman in between those tackles.
67:47And why would they not? Let's recap the bets that have been given out so far on the podcast before we get
67:54to our take home one big thing. Josh Allen, love this one.
67:58Offensive player of the year, 50-1. Packers to miss the playoffs.
68:01We're still buying that. 51%. Bucks to win the NFC South at 23% or plus 335.
68:06Ruben Bain, defensive rookie of the year. We've plummeted in the stock.
68:10We're buying back in 2% on that. Colts to make the playoffs at 21% plus 376.
68:15I really thought I was going to fight with you on that and it didn't end up happening.
68:21Jeremiah love offensive rookie of the year, plus 430.
68:24And I like Tyler shock to win MVP at 4%, but I will be looking to sell that.
68:29I have already targeted the date as well. He is November 22nd at Chicago.
68:34Just wait till he plays the bears and puts up a monster number.
68:38And then we'll go ahead and get out. Maybe we'll get out at like 10% at that point.
68:44All right. Take us home. What's your one big thing?
68:47Can I say one more thing? This better be important.
68:50There's one more thing before I go. Yeah. Week one was overreaction week.
68:54Week two, if you are a long time listener, you already know.
68:58It's kitchen sink week. Since 2010, 0-2 teams facing any team with at least a win.
69:0364, 38, and 2 against the spread. 63% cover rate.
69:06Only once that entire stretch. Did we have a season where we finished more than one game under 500 for those teams?
69:13Those teams are the ones we just talked about.
69:16That's the eight 0-2 teams we talked about. 11 straight years where the favorites against 0-2 teams won less than their pregame win expectancy.
69:23Nine straight years. We have at least one outright upset by a five-point dog or more from that group.
69:29Last three years, five upsets by seven-plus underdogs outright in this group.
69:33So don't count these teams dead just yet. We'll get to more of that on the Friday Playground.
69:39Houston and Indy doesn't count here. They're facing each other.
69:42Everyone else does. So get ready for some kitchen sink week picks.
69:46We already gave out a few hints along the way.
69:49Yes, we did. That's all from the Brandons. Keep an eye out for Stucky and Doug's week three betting preview on Wednesday.
69:56We've got the touchdown show on Thursday and Friday.
69:59It's Brandon's Playground. Shoots, ladders, parlays in the works for week three in the NFL.
70:04All to come right here on the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.
70:08And if you're not bet syncing on the Action app, then you're a loser.
70:12I don't know what to tell you. Oh, and catch me on the favorites.
70:17Thursday morning, we select our five picks for the contest.
70:20Until next time, good luck out there. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
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