NFL Betting Playground | Week 2
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 18, 2026
Published
Fri, September 18, 2026
21
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Michael Penix Jr.Tua TagovailoaBo NixCarson WentzCooper RushDalton SchultzDaniel JonesDeshaun WatsonJ.J. McCarthyJalen HurtsJayden DanielsJordan LoveJustin JeffersonKyler Murray
Player analysis
Player insights
Bo Nix
PositiveUsage13:36
Brandon Anderson projects high passing volume for Bo Nix against Jacksonville, citing that both teams historically feature high pass rates and Jacksonville's defense allowed the most passing attempts in the league last year. Anderson notes Nix had 47 attempts in their previous matchup and argues the standard line of 32.5 is mispriced, recommending an 'escalator' strategy starting at 32.5 and laddering up to 48 attempts.
Insight pageCarson Wentz
PositiveRole42:48
The source expects Carson Wentz to start for the Vikings, noting he has a strong rapport with Justin Jefferson, having helped him clear his receiving yardage lines in all six of their previous games together.
Insight pageCooper Rush
NegativeRole58:06
The source views Cooper Rush as an undesirable option at quarterback for the Falcons, preferring other potential starters like Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
PositiveUsage16:04
Brandon Anderson identifies Dalton Schultz as a 'target monster' and a primary security blanket for C.J. Stroud, especially with Nico Collins dealing with a hamstring injury. Anderson recommends an escalator prop strategy for Schultz's receptions against the Bengals, starting at over 3.5 and laddering up to 10 receptions, noting the Bengals' poor linebacking corps.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeInjury61:48
Daniel Jones is returning from an Achilles injury, and the source notes that his first game back should not be over-analyzed when evaluating the Colts' upcoming matchup.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeBust46:52
The source suggests betting against Deshaun Watson, noting that he may be benched mid-game, potentially marking the end of his tenure as a starter.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeUsage42:18
The source expresses significant concern regarding JJ McCarthy's impact on Justin Jefferson's production, noting Jefferson averaged only 54 yards per game in 10 appearances with McCarthy compared to 95 yards with other quarterbacks.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeUsage49:15
Jalen Hurts struggled to execute the new offense, recording only two middle-of-the-field passes in Week 1, while the Eagles' offense relied heavily on big plays rather than consistent success.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeRole42:17
Jaden Daniels is expected to carry the Washington offense, as he will have to do everything for the team against a Dallas defense that Washington's offensive line may struggle to exploit.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection61:42
The source projects that Jordan Love will successfully pick apart the Atlanta Falcons defense, noting that Atlanta lacks the pass rush necessary to exploit the Packers' offensive line.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection42:32
The source projects Justin Jefferson to exceed his 73.5 receiving yards line, noting he averages 95 yards per game when not playing with JJ McCarthy. He has historically performed well with Carson Wentz, hitting the over in all six games played together with a 32% target share and 44% air yards share.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeInjury42:54
The source advises against starting Kyler Murray due to his lack of practice time and rhythm with the team, even if he clears concussion protocol by the end of the week.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveUsage35:28
Lamar Jackson is a strong first-half performer, covering the spread 60% of the time in his career, making him a key factor in the Ravens' first-half betting outlook.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveRole50:01
The source notes that Michael Penix Jr. is practicing and could potentially start, which would improve the Falcons' outlook for the week.
Insight pageNegativeInjury60:49
The source expresses doubt regarding Michael Penix Jr.'s availability for the upcoming Thursday night game if he is unable to play in the preceding Sunday contest.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeInjury16:25
Brandon Anderson notes that Nico Collins is dealing with a hamstring injury, which creates uncertainty regarding his availability or effectiveness as a decoy for the upcoming game against the Bengals.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection63:55
Patrick Mahomes has struggled against the spread as a favorite of more than three points, covering only 43% of the time, and the Chiefs rarely blow teams out.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeUsage53:39
Saquon Barkley's production in Week 1 was heavily reliant on one long run, with the Eagles' overall run game looking average and closer to last year's performance than the previous season.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeInjury50:06
The source expresses uncertainty regarding Tua Tagovailoa's availability, questioning if he will play again, which impacts the Falcons' quarterback situation.
Insight pageNegativeInjury60:49
The source expresses doubt regarding Tua Tagovailoa's availability for the upcoming Thursday night game if he is unable to play in the preceding Sunday contest.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout19:17
Brandon Anderson highlights Zay Flowers' impressive Week 1 performance (5 catches, 150 yards, 1 TD) and notes the Ravens' creative usage of him across the formation. While acknowledging a hamstring injury, Anderson suggests Flowers could be a dark horse for Offensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 odds.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:30Alright? That is the ultimate kibosh. You wanna bet?
2:32And we are underway. This is the Action Network Podcast.
2:35And this is Brandon Anderson's Playground. Thanks for joining us.
2:38I'm Matt Moore. Today's episode is brought to you by DraftKings.
2:42Joining me is Brandon Anderson to give his best bets for week two of the NFL.
2:47We are on this show to give out Brandon's plays for the week, which you're gonna see some fun stuff in here,
2:53because Brandon Anderson is, well, he's the emperor of ROI.
2:56And he's also the most fun follow on the Action Network app, which you can download right now to follow all of his picks.
3:04Sign up for Action Pro as well, because you are gonna have the most fun on Sundays with Brandon Anderson or any
3:10night that he's got action, because his bets go small, and they go medium, and they go big, and they go bigger, and they go biggest!
3:18All that kind of stuff. Brandon, speaking of, how did you do last week on these best bets?
3:24Yeah, we had a good week one. Week one is always tough for me.
3:28I know last year we had a slow first month.
3:31We finished about six and a half units up last week, counting the Wednesday and Thursday games.
3:36So thank you to Malik Willis. I got the Dolphins shirt on today, thanking my guy.
3:41Thank you to Carson Wentz, stealing us the Vikings alt spread.
3:44Thank you to Chris Olave, big hit for us on the escalator last week.
3:48Look, I'll be honest. The Vikings cover and the Malik Willis stuff, pretty lucky to get those.
3:53So pretty much we kind of came out mostly awash last week.
3:57But you know when you play the escalators and long shots, you hope you get lucky a few times.
4:03So we'll take the wins, we'll reinvest it this week, and we'll hit the playground.
4:07I missed the standard over on his rushing line.
4:10I only played the alts and I didn't play the touchdown.
4:13So this is a reminder that if you're going to tail Brandon on any bet, you have to tail him the whole way up and down the escalator.
4:22Very important. We're going to get to his best bets.
4:25Plus six units is phenomenal. Six and a half units is terrific, Brandon.
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5:04All right, let's get into some week two bets.
5:07Brandon, we're moving on. Great week one start. Let's keep it rolling with week two.
5:11Shoot some ladders really as it's ups and downs, but mostly it's lots of fun.
5:16Going up. I'll meet you at the bottom. Last week, we started with the mind shafts going all the way down on the shoot.
5:23We're going to start with the ladders this week.
5:26You got some escalators primed for us. Where do you want to start?
5:30Yeah, I think there are two really fun AFC games this week.
5:33So we're going to start with both of those.
5:36Jaguars at Broncos, the first one. Denver minus two and a half.
5:40I think maybe the most interesting game of the week.
5:43Is Jacksonville as awesome as they looked against Cleveland last week?
5:46We'll see if that meant anything. Is Denver as terrible as they looked against your Chiefs on Monday night, the last game we saw as we're recording?
5:54You'll have seen the Thursday night by the time you probably listen to this.
5:58I'm intrigued by Jacksonville, but watching the one back, their line wasn't really that great, even against a defense that they dominated.
6:05So let's see the line against this pass rush.
6:08Let's see the passing against these corners. Let's see it against a real team.
6:12But notably, I've been skeptical about Jacksonville had the late season swing last year.
6:16What are they on like an eight or nine game win streak or something?
6:20They're one good win in that stretch. Must have complained about the rest.
6:24In Denver, 34 to 20. Lawrence, five sacks, but four touchdowns that game.
6:28So I have some belief in Jacksonville. I'm not going to play a side here.
6:33I'm going to be on a prop. How are you feeling about the Broncos after what you just watched your team do to them on Monday night?
6:41I have basically taken all Broncos podcasts, video streams and local radio, and I have chopped them up and then snorted them into my brain.
6:49It has been a delightful week for me as a Chiefs fan.
6:52As a Chiefs fan living in Colorado. Yeah, as a Chiefs fan in Colorado specifically.
6:57A lot of fun texts for me this week.
6:59That said, they just can't tackle worse. They just, they can't be that bad at tack.
7:04That's the line around here on local radio was like, they're not this bad.
7:08I know this team and they're not this bad.
7:11And the contrarian in me wants to be like, but what if they are?
7:15Like, what if they're just bad this year? But they're just probably not going to be.
7:20You, I am always texting you and Ron in the thread.
7:24And one of the things I do every week is I'm always like, who had the biggest win of the week?
7:30The one that was like the biggest, like, let's go!
7:33And who had the most like, oh my God, the sky is falling.
7:37And this is a matchup of those two. Like the Jaguars looked like world beaters.
7:41They looked awesome. They looked like, hey, we're going to be the class of this division.
7:46And the Broncos looked like absolute hot garbage. Wrapped in wet diapers.
7:50Rolling down a hill on fire. So it's like, this has, this has to be Broncos or nothing.
7:55Like I tried to talk myself into Jags, but it has to be Broncos or nothing.
8:00I want to stay away because I want to hold out hope that the Broncos just are this bad.
8:06But you're not playing a side either. This, this prop.
8:09Oh my God. Tell the people. So for the first time that I can recall ever, I don't think I've even played this prop angle.
8:17Let alone, we are going all the way up on the escalator.
8:20We're going to do the Bo Nix passing attempts escalator.
8:23So my key read on this game, when I'm looking at the matchup and saying, okay, what do I think?
8:29What do I know about this game? We don't know a lot about these, these teams yet.
8:34What I do know is they were both really good run defenses last year, not Monday night for Denver, but typically very
8:41good run defenses so much that opponents pretty much don't even try to run.
8:45Usually last year, these teams played each other. They combined for 95 pass plays, 41 running plays.
8:50So 70% pass rate in that game. That's the usual for these teams.
8:54Denver last year allowed the sixth most passing attempts in the league.
8:58Jacksonville was number one, most passing attempts. Teams obviously are trailing in those games.
9:02That's part of it, but they just don't even try to run.
9:06So Jacksonville allowed 635 passing attempts. That's 37 and a half per game, including that game against Denver.
9:11Bo Nix 28 for 47 in that game, 352 yards.
9:1447 was the second most passes in his career.
9:17Now, Monday night, Nix only threw 28 times, but you might recall, Matt, that's because he got sacked four times.
9:23He fumbled three times. Those were supposed to be passes.
9:26That wasn't, well, it was his fault. It wasn't his fault.
9:29They weren't passes. That's still a 70% pass rate for them.
9:33So here we go. Bo Nix over 32 and a half passing attempts.
9:37That's the standard line. I think that is badly mispriced.
9:40He had 34 attempts or more, 11 of 17 games last year.
9:43Jacksonville allowed 33 or more passes, 15 of 17 games last year.
9:4788% hit rate to this line to the quarterback that led the league in passing attempts last year.
9:52Jacksonville actually allowed 38 passing attempts over half of its games.
9:56Bo Nix was over half of his games, 37 or more.
9:59So that's the next step up the escalator. We're going to go 38 passing attempts at plus 212 at DraftKings.
10:05That's about where I project this, way above the line.
10:08And now here we go. 40 passes at four to one.
10:11That's only two more. Jacksonville allowed 45 passes four times last year.
10:15Bo Nix did it three times, including against the Jaguars.
10:18So all the way to the top, 45 passing attempts, plus 950.
10:2248 passing attempts, 16 to one at DraftKings. And why are we stopping there?
10:26Because it's the last highest line that I could have found.
10:29And if we're playing it, we're playing all the way to the moon.
10:33Let's pass this game. Bo Nix season in full effect.
10:36Okay. I should have commented on this before and talked this through with you.
10:40So I'm going to deposit some stuff at you.
10:43The first thing I will tell you is that on local radio this week, the number one talking point coming out of
10:50the game, the first thing that was said was, what is Davis Webb doing?
10:54What is Davis Webb? Why is Dave? What is wrong with Davis Webb?
10:58What was his game plan? What was his offensive strategy?
11:01Why did they rush the ball nine times in the first half?
11:05What is happening? And Sean Payton's halftime interview where he was like, yeah, we're gonna have to talk about some things.
11:11Like he was like through his offensive coordinator under the bus.
11:14I don't think very highly of Sean Payton, by the way.
11:18I think he's a big reason they lost that game.
11:21But like that's like the talk. So the Broncos, the entire week have been peppered with questions consistently in the media, both coaches, players, everyone.
11:28The talking point is why didn't they run the ball more?
11:32So that makes me like a little bit nervous.
11:34Second thing, you did your offensive line rankings preseason and that work was built off of Brandon Thorne and PFF.
11:40This isn't like you going through and grading every individual offensive lineman.
11:44So it's like a composite, right? And you had them number one.
11:48I checked in with you after this game because I was really surprised at kind of like what happened.
11:53I don't necessarily think that highly of the Broncos offensive line because I just don't think Garrett Bowles is as good as
12:00he had like a good year and I don't actually think he's good.
12:04Same way. I don't think Patrick's retain is good.
12:07Are you getting a theme here of me thinking that Broncos that are actually good suck?
12:11But, but I am a little bit just like, shouldn't the offensive line provide them with better opportunities to run the ball?
12:18And if that's the case, like, does that worry you at all?
12:22So I'll just bounce those off of you. Does that concern you at all?
12:26Yeah. So I have thought through those things. The Broncos line, I did rank them number one, but we talked about on the offensive line podcast.
12:34They're not number one. Like the Eagles have been number one or like the lines have been number one.
12:40They are much closer to the rest of the pack.
12:43They're also a little bit of bone nicks and quick passing merchants in that they are helped by this quick getting the
12:49ball out and they are much better pass blocking unit than run blocking.
12:53And so I think they're just going to keep passing.
12:56And I agree that the conversation already Monday night was what are we doing?
13:00Why are there so many passes right now? Where are the runs?
13:04Well, because you can't run the ball because it's not a good run blocking line and your running backs are not that great.
13:11And Jacksonville is built to stop the run. That is what Anthony Campanelli's defense is built for.
13:16And so if I'm wrong here, maybe they're running 10 times the first quarter and they're going to lose that way.
13:23And I think that they don't want to lose.
13:25I think they would like to win. And the way you win this game is by passing.
13:30Look, there's also a narrative about how did we trade a first round pick for Jalen Waddell and get him the ball
13:37one time for two yards, three targets. So how about we get that narrative?
13:41Let's pass there instead. Instead, I am thinking that the narrative is actually buying us a little bit of value here.
13:48So I'm sort of playing into the narrative of maybe they're deflating the passing attempts number.
13:52I'm inflating. I'm going for the whole boat. So 32 and a half on the over for Knicks and all the way
13:59up as high as we can take it to 48.
14:02And let's hope he passes. I love the attempt.
14:05But I will be honest with you. When I first saw this, I thought I just like I just saw Bo Knicks pass.
14:12And I was like, he's taking the over on the on the like, you're you want to trust Bo Knicks to take to get you bubble up.
14:20And then now I'm like, oh, no, this makes sense because it's just going to throw the ball a lot and we'll
14:27see how it's not a vote of confidence in Bo Knicks or the Broncos.
14:31It's really the opposite. It's just a vote of volume.
14:34It's a vote of volume for them. All right, let's move on to your next best bet.
14:39This is a tight end play versus the Bengals.
14:42Yeah, Texans Bengals, I think, is the other really great game on Sunday.
14:46Those two games, Jaguars, Broncos, Texans Bengals. That's going to really give us a clear shape of what the AFC looks like early on.
14:53This one is more strength on strength, weakness on weakness.
14:56So obviously Bengals offense, Texans defense is a strength.
14:59The Bengals offense is their line improved enough to handle the Texans front.
15:03Can Chase and Higgins beat the man to man coverage?
15:06I don't really have a great answer to that.
15:08So I'm not going to do a side here again.
15:11Bengals defense. Are they improved enough to stop a Texans offense that actually kind of found some answers last week?
15:17And I wasn't aware necessarily of how bad these trends were.
15:21You know that D'Amico Ryans, for as much as we love him, won in nine against the spread the first three weeks
15:27of the season now in his career. The Texans have not started out well early in the season.
15:33He is 41% as a favorite against the spread.
15:36Joe Burrow as an underdog, always dangerous. So again, I'm not going to play a side here.
15:41I'm going to go back to Old Faithful, a tight end against the Bengals.
15:45You know, I love my tight end props. You know, I love fading the Bengals.
15:50Look, we didn't hit the tight end props last week.
15:53The Bengals tight ends at nine catches. Just not Eric Hall.
15:56We found four other guys on the roster to split all the catches up.
16:00K-Don didn't hit for us either. Otherwise, we had a much better unit total.
16:04I'm going Dalton Schultz. I trust him this week.
16:07I think he is a target monster in Houston.
16:10He had eight targets last week. Second only Nico Collins with 10.
16:13That's the usual. He is second in Houston targets each of the last two years behind only Nico Collins.
16:19And by the way, I love this prop before news came out that Nico Collins tweaked his hamstring.
16:25And now we'll see, is Nico even going to play?
16:28Or if he does play, is he a decoy?
16:30I think we're going to get a lot of those CJ Stroud security blanket dump off passes against a team whose linebackers are not good.
16:38So we're taking the Schultz escalator and boy, are we taking it.
16:42Over three and a half receptions. Last week, I said on Kate Otten against the Bengals, don't take the median.
16:48And Schultz is a much better median play. He had at least three catches, all but two games last year.
16:54So we're one away from basically his floor. We just need one to hit the over.
16:58The Bengals allowed four catches to a tight end 14 times last year.
17:02So I love the over three and a half.
17:05That's the base play. Schultz had five catches 10 times last year.
17:09The Bengals allowed five catches to a tight end 10 times last year.
17:13So five catches plus 180. There's the next step up and we're hitting every step on the way up here.
17:19Six catches for Schultz six times last year, 35% of his games.
17:22Bengals, six catches 11 times the last two years.
17:25Six catches is plus 375. And then all the way up.
17:28I don't even know where to stop, but I stopped too soon on Chris Olave last week and I have regrets.
17:35So we're doing the whole thing this week. Schultz last year had catches of seven, seven, eight, and nine.
17:40The Bengals the last two years have allowed three eights and two tens.
17:44So I'm going to rattle off numbers, watch the app, watch the article.
17:48We're playing seven, eight, nine, and 10. Seven's about seven to one.
17:52Eight is 11 to one. Nine is 19 to one.
17:55And 10 is 28 to one at DraftKings. Start at three and a half.
17:59Play all the way up. Dalton Schultz. I'm going to need David Payne to hit the Mike Ehrmantraut from Breaking Bad.
18:06No half measures. That's going to, we're going to need that for this podcast.
18:10No more half measures, Walton. You tell me that there's a bad linebacking crew and my immediate thought is like, oh, tight ends.
18:17That's where that goes. Tight ends. Okay. Let's move on to Ravens-Saints.
18:20Really interesting game. Saints hung around last week and kind of impressed a lot of people.
18:25Shuck was terrible in the first half and then kind of bounced back.
18:29I was texting with Raheem and Brandon this week.
18:32And Brandon, who I would say is like you could describe as a Ravens hater over the last like half decade.
18:38I think you could describe it. Lamar. Lamar hater.
18:41I would say. Lamar hater. Sorry. And he is very bullish on this Ravens team in general.
18:46And in particular this week, you have a slice of a side that you want to play on Baltimore.
18:52Yeah, I thought the Ravens were honestly the most impressive team that I watched in week one.
18:57So we're going to play a Ravens escalator in just the first half of the game, even the first quarter of the game against the Saints.
19:05I thought Declan Doyle, the offensive coordinator there, was fair on all cylinders last week.
19:09Creative looking run game. I have not been a big Zay Flowers guy, just like I kind of rag on Lamar and Zay both.
19:17Zay was awesome last week. Five catches, 150 yards, and a touchdown all in the first half.
19:22They're moving him all around the formation. He's doing a choice route out of the backfield, busting for a touchdown now.
19:28He also has a hamstring injury. I don't love that.
19:31Week one for speed receiver. They lost Jacoby Lane, the rookie, last week.
19:35I don't love no receivers for the team. But I liked what I saw from Zay so much that I looked this up.
19:42He's 100 to 1 for offensive player of the year.
19:45The way they're using him all over the field and as explosive as this offense is, I think that could be in play.
19:52I can't give it out right now while we don't know if he'll play this week, but I will give Ravens out right now.
19:59They look like they could score any possession, any play.
20:02That game last week, they had 31 at the half.
20:05Their touchdown drives were three plays, six, five, and three.
20:08That is just like bang, down the field, touchdown.
20:11We don't need to do this like meticulate the ball down the field craft.
20:15We're just getting right down the field. They scored on their first five drives, five touchdowns, except one got called back in a penalty.
20:23So field goal out or they turned over and downs that one.
20:26But here we are. Ravens minus eight and a half.
20:29I like it. Like I like eight and a half just fine.
20:33I think it's a great teaser leg. I'm not giving a teaser this week, but getting that under a field goal.
20:39I love that spot. I would make this Ravens minus 10.
20:43I think they're just the way better team. I'm going to play it early in the game because I think we get even better lines.
20:50We get to cut under those key numbers. So here's what we're doing.
20:54Ravens first half minus five and a half. Great.
20:57We get to get under the seven. We're under the six.
21:00And if you've been watching the Saints and Evan Abrams talks about this trend a lot in his article, the Saints early in games are awful.
21:08They're so bad. The Saints have not covered. The Saints have not won a first quarter since 2024.
21:13They are they've tied, I think, two or three of them.
21:17They've lost all the rest. They're terrible ATS in the first quarter.
21:20The Saints failed to cover a five and a half point first half line over half of their games last year and in week one.
21:28And you know, Lamar Jackson, this is a stucky favorite.
21:31Lamar Jackson, the first half, 60% ATS in his career.
21:34So we'll take the Ravens first half line five and a half.
21:38That's just the normal line. We're gonna take the first quarter line to minus two and a half.
21:43Great. We ducked another key number. They're just handing these key numbers to us.
21:47Now we're below the three. Also, the Saints are two and 16 in the first quarter since the start of 2025.
21:54That is against the spread two and 16. That's gross.
21:57We're gonna duck below the three. The Saints failed to cover this 82% of the games last year and week one again.
22:03And then I thought, okay, so we're going first quarter, going in first half.
22:07What's how do we play the escalator? How do I get aggressive here?
22:11So here's what I came up with. I like first half better than first quarter.
22:16I did a few first quarter plays last year.
22:19Teams don't give a rip about the quarter ending.
22:21I'll just score a touchdown the first play of the second quarter and screw your bet.
22:26It doesn't really matter because it doesn't affect anything.
22:29Halftime matters because now possession changes. So I prefer first half.
22:32Ravens, first half, minus nine and a half. So I got to win by double digits in the first half, plus 162.
22:39The Saints trailed by nine or more seven times at halftime last year.
22:43So I like that one. And then if the Ravens explode, it's going to be their offense.
22:48So team total over 20 and a half in the first half.
22:52So at least 21 points, plus 490. The Saints allowed that 20 times.
22:56Or sorry, they allowed 20 plus five times last year.
22:59So Ravens first quarter, Ravens first half, and then a couple of first half alts.
23:03I think Baltimore is just way better. And I think they put this game away early.
23:08And I don't want to mess with the shock backdoor stuff and all that that we saw late last week.
23:14Get that out of here. Let's just get our money and be done in halftime.
23:19I like this. I have a feeling that our good friend Ra is going to like it even more.
23:24But that's a tale for another time. I do think that like I'm going to be on Ravens.
23:30I like this angle. I'm with you that it just seems like I think the Saints are going to be pesky.
23:36I think there will be great spots to bet them this season.
23:40I do not think right now you want to get in front of the juggernaut.
23:44I just don't think you want to get in front of it.
23:48And I'm not scared about the full game because I'm just kind of like, yeah, he can backdoor a teaser.
23:54But that's like where I'm kind of at on this is I think the full game is fine.
23:59But like the first quarter and first half trends you outlined are like they are what they are.
24:05Those numbers on the Saints are that's insane. That's crazy.
24:08So bad. 2024. That's crazy. It's crazy for a coaching staff that we kind of like that we think is pretty good.
24:15Like you can have your team ready. What are you doing?
24:18Like how about coaching before halftime and actually have your team ready in the first quarter?
24:23It's a very strange trend. Yeah, that's that is absolutely nuts.
24:26Okay. So got the Ravens first quarter first half Escalade versus the Saints.
24:30You're going to a division matchup now in a game that I want zero part of after week one.
24:36And I applaud you for the braveness that you're showing here because how about them Cowboys?
24:41You like Dallas versus the commanders. And I still trust the Cowboys just fine.
24:45I'm going to take the Cowboys minus three and a half against the commanders.
24:49We're going to play some all. So I thought this was the easiest spread pick of the week for me.
24:55I make this closer to like five and a half or six for Dallas.
24:59I think Washington's getting a little bit overrated in the market just because they hung around against an Eagles team that I think is pretty mid.
25:07And the Cowboys are a bit down in the market after getting crushed by the Giants that I think are like also
25:14kind of mid, but in a good way because you're the Giants.
25:17I'm worried about Dallas's defense. That's not great. But I don't think this is the team that can exploit their defense.
25:24So Dallas's run defense, terrible. But Washington, bottom five offensive line, they're not good at running the ball.
25:29They're not going to hurt the Cowboys the way the Giants just did.
25:33I think Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark can dominate the interior this game.
25:37Jaden Daniels is going to have to do everything.
25:40That's the Washington story. And he's got some good receivers.
25:43I think they'll do some stuff. I just don't think they'll do much.
25:47On the flip side, I just think for Clayton Adams, this offense that everyone loved coming into the season.
25:52The offense was fine last week. They did well against the Giants.
25:56They just only had six possessions to score. The defense couldn't get off the field.
26:01So the offense never got to play. I thought they did fine.
26:04I think they're going to put up a big number on Washington.
26:08That is a bottom five defense. Dallas's interior line is struggling a little bit, but Washington's not the team to exploit that factor either.
26:15I just trust Dallas to score and I think get back on track here.
26:19This is the spot you want Dak as a favorite.
26:22And in the division is where he's been great.
26:25As a division favorite of three or more, 25 and 10 against the spread in his career, covering by almost a full touchdown.
26:32And guess what? A lot of those covers are against Washington.
26:35So we'll take the minus three and a half.
26:38And if you've listened in the past, we get these games twice a year, obviously.
26:43A lot of times when Dallas plays Washington, I just play alts both ways and hope that we get a big spread
26:49because Dallas has won eight of 10 against Washington.
26:52But the key thing is that the last 15 games these teams played, only one game is closer than seven points.
26:58Nine of the 15 are 15 points or more.
27:01Over half are 20 point spread. Average margin, 19 points difference between these teams.
27:05These are not close games. Whoever is good crushes the other team.
27:09I don't need a Washington this time. I think Dallas is the better team.
27:13So I'll take the three and a half. Four if you need it.
27:17I'm not intimidated because I'm going to go big here.
27:20Dallas minus 13 and a half at plus 360.
27:23Dallas minus 19 and a half at seven to one.
27:26I think the Cowboys hang a big crooked number on Washington and everyone gets right back on them.
27:31There's the phrase week one is a liar or week one is fake that I've heard a lot.
27:37Is that a little bit of this that this is basically you're like, I'm not moved off my priors by week one.
27:43Like I'm pretty much. Yeah, I think I liked Dallas.
27:46I didn't like Washington and I'm not really moved too much by week one and I'm just going to stick with it here.
27:53OK, all right. Now that concludes the escalators and the ladders portion.
27:57Now we're going to go the other direction and go all the way down on the chute and get the mineshaft.
28:03And you're looking towards. I this is an interesting choice.
28:06You're going for Eagles versus the Titans and all the way down.
28:10Look, what I really wanted for a mineshaft was something Deshaun Watson.
28:14I just wanted any under all the way down Deshaun Watson because I think legitimately this might be our last chance ever to bet against Deshaun Watson.
28:22I think he gets benched mid game and that's the end of the Deshaun Watson thing.
28:27I can't find an angle, Matt. I can't find you know me.
28:30I'm looking everywhere. I can't find enough unders. I liked on Deshaun Watson.
28:34So if you're listening and you find the Deshaun Watson mineshaft, I want to join you on it.
28:40So hit me up on Twitter. We'll get that into the app instead.
28:44Eagles Titans. I'm going under, under, under 39 and a half.
28:47Put in the app already earlier this week at 40 and a half.
28:51If you're able to follow that. I'm not sure there were many offenses I was less impressed with in week one than these two teams.
28:58The Titans, end of the game, get a garbage time touchdown.
29:02Before that drive, 40 plays, 130 yards, 3.2 yards of play, six first downs the entirety of that game.
29:08Under 100 yards for Cam Ward until that final stretch.
29:11Ryan Dable, just awful. Every week one, every start of the season, his offense looked rudderless.
29:15They're like almost 80% in shotgun. I know what they're doing.
29:19The Eagles aren't supposed to be that bad, but they had four scoring drives in their game against Washington.
29:24Each of those scoring drives had a one really long play, a long Saquon run, three long passes of 30 plus.
29:31Outside of those four big plays, 50 Philadelphia plays all game for 99 yards.
29:35Under two yards of play. So you're basically just tush pushing 50 times and then once every quarter, you get one big play.
29:42They had six first downs outside of those four big plays.
29:45They were 28% success rate on early downs. That's third percentile.
29:49Remember Sean Mannion, the new offense? We're going to get under center.
29:52We're going to pass over the middle. Guess what?
29:55Two middle of the field passes for Jalen Hurts.
29:58Congratulations on your new offense. The Eagles line is struggling.
30:01Landon Dickerson is out. The interior is not creating rushing lanes.
30:04And look, the Eagles defense we know is good.
30:07That's the one reliable unit here. I've seen people I trust betting Titans shut out here.
30:12I would say that's possible. Their line is in big trouble.
30:15I don't really trust Philly to score that much either, though.
30:18I think Tennessee run defense can be stout. So it's got to be Jalen Hurts passing.
30:23And you know, I'm fine betting against Jalen Hurts passing.
30:26So under 39 and a half. Best number you can find.
30:29Even if I'm wrong about Eagles offense and they find some answers here, I still like this.
30:35It might just be like 31 to 6 Philadelphia.
30:37And we still go under in that case. Robert Sala totals under 44, 59% to the under.
30:42Week two unders from 30 to 40 points, 67% to the under.
30:46And then here's the mineshaft part. It's kind of only a bit of a mineshaft.
30:51I'll be honest. But if we're going under 39 and a half and one team is catching a touchdown on the spread, they have to get your attention.
30:59Because seven points suddenly becomes a lot if there's only 35 in the game.
31:03Since 2014, in week two, teams that are three to seven point underdogs that failed to cover in week one, 70% against the spread.
31:11And here's the crazy one, Matt. Over the first eight games of the season, last two decades, home underdogs of seven or
31:17more points, 19, two and two against the spread.
31:2090% cover rate. So I'm not playing Tennessee outright.
31:23I'm not playing Tennessee spread. I'm going to play the Tennessee spread plus the seven with the under because I think it's very correlated.
31:30I want a low scoring, ugly game. That's what we're getting.
31:33And if it is, can the Titans just keep it within seven?
31:37How about like 13 to seven? How about that?
31:40Can we just keep it low and close? It's plus 270 on a very correlated same game parlay.
31:45Okay. I have one time for one quick question.
31:48I think I need to ask it. All right.
31:51So you were unmoved by the performances in week one by the Cowboys and the commanders, right?
31:56Yes. We went into the season thinking that the Eagles had a good offensive line because they've had a good offensive line for like ever.
32:03Am I wrong on that? They've been great forever and they've been slowly slipping.
32:07I dropped them to five in my rankings, which was about as low as I saw them.
32:13And then Landon Dickerson got hurt. They're only good interior linemen.
32:16So they, the run game was not great last year.
32:19The run game was very average and Saquon wasn't getting the big ones.
32:23And it looked much closer to last year than the previous year in week one.
32:27So I, this is not to me. This is, I was very mid at best on Eagles offense coming into the year.
32:34And now I'm more that than I started, but this is not like, well, we thought this would be pretty good offense.
32:41No, I did not think that. I don't think that about the Eagles offense.
32:45I thought they were looking not great and they looked worse than not great in week one.
32:50It feels like between the commanders play and this one, we're going to find out a lot about if the commander's defensive
32:57line was actually good or if that was a mirage or if the Eagles line is actually bad or if that was a mirage.
33:04So we'll see how good, maybe both, maybe neither.
33:07We'll see. Okay. We're going to continue with, we'll go into the sandbox next and hit some more plays from Brandon Anderson.
33:13But first let's toss it over to Jill Galant with a word from our sponsor.
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36:19All right, back here on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast with Brandon Anderson.
36:24We're in the playground. Brandon, let's hit the sandbox.
36:26We'll keep it simple. When I was in the sandbox as a kid, I got no respect.
36:31I like it. It's playful. Keep it simple, smarty pants.
36:34Your sandboxes are the best. That's why I want you involved.
36:38Hit me with any other simple sides, totals, and props that you want to hit.
36:42Yeah, we are going to go against your team here, but I know you like this play.
36:47We're going to go to Sunday Night Football. Give me the Colts, plus six and a half at the Chiefs.
36:54This is just a classic buy low, sell high spot.
36:57A lot of trends in our favor. We just watched the Chiefs demolish.
37:00We talked about that. We talked about the Colts getting crushed by the Ravens.
37:05I think they're maybe the best team in the NFL right now.
37:08Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles. First game back.
37:11I'm not going to take too much out of that.
37:14Denver's defense got run over. The Colts' run defense is usually solid.
37:18They got picked on in the pass game last week.
37:21Nickelback, Justin Wally. Baltimore was chasing him all over the field.
37:24Anywhere he went, that was where Lamar was throwing.
37:27Guess what? Kansas City is not beat to bill you that way anymore.
37:31The Chiefs don't have the weapons to beat you and run it up in the passing game.
37:36That's just not what this team is able to do right now.
37:39So I don't think they can really hurt them that way.
37:43We talked about the offensive lines. I think the Colts' line is about as good as Denver's, except they're a much better run-blocking line than passing.
37:51So I think the Colts run in this game.
37:53We know the Chiefs now are a running team.
37:56So I think we're set up for another classic Mahomes home primetime under, a slow run-the-football both ways, close game late.
38:02We trust Pat to go beat Daniel Jones down the stretch when it matters.
38:07Usually the Chiefs don't blow teams out. They've only had four and five wins the last two years by more than a score.
38:14So this is a good trend spot for the Colts.
38:17Let me just hit you with a bunch of them here.
38:20Week two spot, buy low. I gave you the three to seven-point underdogs failing to cover, 70%.
38:25That hits here again. Road dogs off a double-digit loss, same time frame, 83% against the spread, 24 and five.
38:31Week two favorites playing at home a second straight week, 30% against the spread.
38:35That's the Chiefs. Mahomes has not been good as a three-point, better than a three-point favorite against the spread, 43%.
38:41Danny Dimes, 66% as an underdog on the road.
38:44Shane Steichen, seven and three ATS, first three games of the season.
38:48And then just generally speaking, week two or not, anytime you get a team that wins by 17 or more and then
38:54faces a team that loses by 17 or more, it's a classic buy low, sell high, 59% against the spread to the underdog.
39:01So I think the Colts hang in. I think they keep it close.
39:05I think we get kind of one of those like, man, I miss the good old days on the Chiefs sort of looking games on Sunday night.
39:14I would wait for the plus seven. We had that much of the week.
39:18If you can get the plus seven, I obviously prefer it.
39:21But for today, give me the Colts plus six and a half at the Chiefs.
39:26Yeah, I love this one. And look, I love Broncos last week.
39:29And Brandon always thinks I just blindly bet against Casey and he might be right.
39:34But like, I think, um, I do think that the offensive line matchup is like a big problem here.
39:40Uh, the Broncos didn't try and run on Casey and that's been a consistent problem under spags.
39:45It's like, if your run blitz does not, if your blitz does not get home, those holes are giant.
39:50And you're relying on a very underwhelming pack of linebackers to be able to maintain gap coverage.
39:56And it just, I don't think that that works well.
39:59Uh, so yeah, I, I'm with you on this.
40:01I just think this is a, I think this is the spot when you looked at, like I said, who absolutely had
40:08like a, oh my God, they got killed. And who got the, wow, what a performance.
40:13It's literally Casey running over Broncos that don't, that choose not to tackle.
40:17And then the Colts getting hit with what we think is a juggernaut in the Ravens.
40:22Like, I just don't think the Colts are that bad.
40:25I am absolutely still in. I'm, I am higher than Brandon is on the Colts.
40:29He's not high on them. I just like the spot.
40:32I actually think the Colts are going to be good.
40:35Um, and so I'm willing to give them this break early with the schedule.
40:39Uh, love this at plus six and a half.
40:42You're going to a Minnesota. You look at you back to back weeks plan of Vikings play.
40:47I know from your team to my team. She's going to do a very basic, straightforward.
40:52Justin Jefferson over 73 and a half receiving yards in Chicago at the bears.
40:56You and I texted about this. I really wanted to go bears team total over.
41:01Like I think the bears, I fear this game as a Vikings fan.
41:05Ben Johnson, I think is about to shred this brand floor is defense.
41:09They have matched up nine times with Ben as the offensive coordinator, averaging 28 points a game on floors, 29 or more six of the nine times.
41:17Here's the problem. Two of those came last year with the bears.
41:21Two of those misses. I should say came last year.
41:24They did not hit over 26 and a half.
41:26I think Ben Johnson knows where to hit the weak spots when the blitz has come.
41:31And if Minnesota can stay in more in base, then maybe they hang, but I don't think the defense is talented enough
41:38to stay in base and do that. So at the end of the day, I always fear I've lived in Chicago now
41:44for a quarter of a century and the Vikings normally come and die in Chicago.
41:49So I have that built into me too. Not lately though.
41:52The Vikings have won eight of 10 against the bears, including six straight in Chicago.
41:57Add that in add. The total is up three or four points.
42:00It's windy this weekend. It's too many reasons to not go over the inflated team total, but I want overs some sort of overs in a bears game.
42:09Whoever is playing, I need an over. So how about just the best receiver on the planet?
42:14How about just that? It's amazing how Justin Jefferson magically just became great again.
42:18As soon as we sent JJ McCarthy to the moon, isn't that 90 yards a game in his career is the best in NFL history.
42:26He played 10 games with JJ McCarthy, average 54 yards a game.
42:29He's terrible with JJ McCarthy because McCarthy can't throw him the ball.
42:33He's 95 yards a game with everyone else. So just the over 73 and a half.
42:38I think it's Carson Wentz this week. I actually would prefer him for this bet because I know Wentz has been good with Jefferson.
42:45He's gone over this line all six times with Carson Wentz.
42:4932% target share, 44% air yards, average 95 yards a game right at his non McCarthy career.
42:54I think Wentz plays. You can't play Kyler after not practicing all week, even if he clears concussion protocol like Friday or Saturday.
43:01I don't know how you play him when he just has no rhythm with the team.
43:05So I think it's Wentz. I like either one that's not named JJ McCarthy.
43:10The bears allowed 74 yards to receiver 13 times last year than two more times last week to both Carolina guys.
43:16I think this line is too low. So no escalators, no craziness here.
43:20Just a standard Justin Jefferson receiving yards over. Let's get moving.
43:23Let's head on over. I, this one, this, I am.
43:26This is the, the very prototypical gross play that every sharp better talks themselves into.
43:31You are not that type of better, but in this instance, there are times when even you cannot resist because sir, you are taking the Miami dolphins.
43:39Taking the dolphins plus 13 and a half at the Niners.
43:42Like I'm not going to pretend to make a case for the dolphins on a football field.
43:47This is a trends play. This is a spot play.
43:51This is a numbers play. Shanahan's teams often struggle with bad teams.
43:54They play with their food. Here are the angles you like for the dolphins.
43:58The Niners returned from Australia after a full week there.
44:01We don't know what that means yet. I thought going into week one, it was going to be bad for the Rams.
44:08Good for the Niners in week one and flip after that.
44:11I think a week there is a lot of worries about how did your body clock readjust afterward?
44:17And you know, Matt, we've been for years. I like to fade the teams coming back from London without rest.
44:23Well, Australia is a lot further here. And usually those teams particularly give up a lot of points on the team total to their opponent.
44:30Shanahan teams don't win by this much that often either.
44:33Last year, they won by 14 or more only three times against Jacoby Brissett, Schroeder Sanders and Phillip Rivers straight off the couch.
44:40They didn't win by 14 against the Saints or the Falcons or the Giants or the Panthers or the Titans.
44:46In fact, they only covered 14 or more four times the last two seasons as much as we think that the Niners are this huge juggernaut.
44:54And I'm not usually the one to do this either, Matt.
44:58But before the season, this line was 10 and a half.
45:01Before the season was one week ago. We're moving this line three points after one game for both teams.
45:07That is a huge overreaction. Week two road dogs off a double digit loss.
45:1124 and five ATS, 83%. Here's a great one.
45:14This is a small sample because it's a week two stat.
45:17Teams that win by 17 or more in week one as underdogs of a touchdown or less.
45:22So that's the Niners. They were underdogs by a bit.
45:25They won by a bunch. We overrate them. Those teams go three and a 15 against the spread in week two.
45:32I don't know how we get there. Maybe we get a big Dolphins special teams play.
45:36We got a sloppy mistake late from a tired Niners team.
45:40We had a garbage touchdown late 30 to 17 Niners.
45:43We covered by half. I don't really care how we get there.
45:46I got no football analysis. Dolphins plus 13 and a half.
45:50Just hold your nose and play it. I get it.
45:53I get it. I get it. I, I, the trench advantage is so big for the Niners in this game.
45:59And I kind of like, I am in a spot right now with the Niners.
46:03Like you, you've kind of coming on the, on the health stuff.
46:07Everybody knows the health stuff. I am of the opinion though, where I'm like, I want to bet them until the injuries happen and then stop betting them.
46:15And they had six players that mispracticed before them were just resting.
46:19And so I'm kind of like, okay, like, I kind of want to play them until the wheels fall off and then
46:26immediately bail and not talk myself into, well, they're missing.
46:29No, they need guys. Like they, they are a team that needs their guys.
46:33I get it. But this is a, this is, this is a, this is, this is a fun one.
46:39If you were just like, yep, I've got money on the dolphins.
46:42What about it? Uh, as always, Brandon's got long shots and some parlays for you.
46:47Uh, you've got a little bit of a tighter one this week, but you are taking a dog straight up in a big AFC matchup.
46:54So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah. Just a couple of smaller long shots.
46:59I'm going to do the Steelers on only the money line plus two 10 at the Patriots.
47:04Look, we all saw how bad the Steelers look last week, but I think both offenses here are pretty rough.
47:10The Patriots weapons are all in the hospital. This feels like an under.
47:14So if you like the under and the total is falling, you think about the underdog.
47:19I think the matchup sets up pretty well for Pittsburgh.
47:22I think they can run on this defense a little bit.
47:25The Patriots don't have much pass rush to bother Rogers.
47:28We've talked about how that is the key thing in a Pittsburgh matchup.
47:32I don't think the Patriots will run that much.
47:35They're going to have to pass and Drake may can do that, but who's he passing to?
47:40Because all the receivers are hurt. AJ is out.
47:43Booty is gone. There's a beautiful secondary here, but you've got to pass to somebody.
47:47And by the way, is that offensive line really improved?
47:50Can they hold up against all the Pittsburgh pass rushers?
47:53So I just think Steelers can hang around here.
47:56Patriots are off lots of extra rest, and they're kind of playing for their season.
48:01You don't want to go down 0-2 here. So I don't love that.
48:05They've owned Pittsburgh this century. Here's a stat that you're going to just hate that I'm giving out.
48:10But Aaron Rogers has more than a field goal underdog in his career.
48:1414 and 16 straight up. 37% ROI. Who cares?
48:17Because that's 20 years ago of Aaron Rogers. Well, I care because he went 3-0 to the trend last year.
48:23Even with the Steelers, even when he was a bigger underdog, they still won three times as a big underdog in the last year.
48:30Now look, I would like this place so much more with Mike Tomlin.
48:34So much more. McCarthy is playing faster. They're playing pass heavier.
48:37That is not conducive to upsets. This is a small play for me.
48:41My numbers say this should be 3.5, not 5.5.
48:44That's not a lot of value on the spread for those key numbers.
48:48So that's why I'm doing the money line instead.
48:50I make this plus 160, and it's plus 210.
48:53So we're getting 50 cents of value. I don't really love it, to be honest.
48:58I'm trusting my numbers in the play, and I'm going to pay and find out.
49:02And I just think the numbers are in our favor.
49:05So we'll do a little nibble on the Steelers money line.
49:09Yeah, I want to mock this. And yet Mike McCarthy had himself won.
49:13Mike Tomlin ass win last week. So maybe it's just a Steelers thing.
49:16Maybe it's just like incorporated into the uniforms. This next play, like this one speaks to my heart.
49:22I love this play. I'm sorry. This probably means it's a loser.
49:26But I love this play because I love overtime plays.
49:29You've got an overtime play on an NFC matchup that I'm absolutely making box one this week because I love this matchup.
49:35Panthers, Falcons, give me the overtime play. I so, so wanted to give out Atlanta plus two and a half here.
49:42I make Atlanta favorites right now. Even with Cooper Rush, I have Atlanta favored.
49:46Why is Carolina road favorite? I don't understand. It's the fake division title.
49:50It has to be the only reason. Here's the problem.
49:53We're all focused on the quarterback. There are literally four quarterbacks that might play for the Falcons.
49:58We don't know which one. It might be Cooper Rush.
50:01Looks like Penix is practicing now. Jack Strand's just hanging out, waiting to go from undrafted to starter.
50:06Tua, I don't know if he's ever going to play again.
50:10Meanwhile, Chris Lindstrom, the best offensive lineman, he's in concussion protocol.
50:13So we don't know if he's going to play.
50:16He looks doubtful. AJ Terrell, their best cover guy.
50:18He looks like he might not play as well.
50:21So here's the problem. The fact that this is sitting steady at two and a half for Carolina all week, I have
50:28to read that as a better as bad news for me as an Atlanta guy.
50:32Thinking like, man, the books might know more than I do.
50:36And those guys might not necessarily be setting up to go for Atlanta this week.
50:40So that makes me nervous. I'll tell you this.
50:43If we get Penix or even Tua starting, that would put Atlanta up to minus three for me.
50:48So I'm playing whatever the number is at that point.
50:51It won't get to minus three. If this hits Carolina plus three, I'm probably playing regardless of whoever's at quarterback in the injuries.
50:58So keep an eye out. It might hit the app.
51:01The Panthers famously have lost 12 straight times outright as favorites in the NFL, half a decade's worth.
51:07I'm going for the overtime play because I think this is just a close, gross NFC South game.
51:12These teams split the season series five straight times until Carolina swept last year.
51:17One of those in overtime. Guess what? These teams play a whole bunch of overtime games.
51:21Eight of those 12 games have been within one score.
51:24Three of the last eight have gone to overtime.
51:27There was a two point game in there as well.
51:30I think it's close all the way. Here are the two bets I'm giving you.
51:35And I'm going to tell you right now, Matt, these are minus EV bets this game.
51:40You should not bet these on plus EV. I don't give these out often.
51:44I just think this is fun and it's a long shot.
51:47And I like the setup at DraftKings. Overtime is 12 to one.
51:51Typically that number looks like to me historically closer to 20 to one.
51:55So it's not in our favor here. I want it for Panthers Falcons.
51:59I'm playing a nibble. And if we're playing overtime, ain't no way I'm not playing the escalator on a tie.
52:05100 to one odds for a tie. If we're in overtime, 10 more minutes and nothing.
52:09That's all I have to hope for in an FC South game.
52:13We had seven ties and 118 overtime games since 2017 when we switched to the 10 minute overtime.
52:19That's again, minus EV. I don't care. We're going for an overtime and we're going for a tie.
52:24It's the grossest, stupidest thing that would happen. Doesn't it feel like exactly what should happen in Panthers Falcons?
52:30We all got to add the little extra dash one at the end of the standings for 16 weeks for this stupid division.
52:37I just think it could happen. I love it.
52:39I'm in. This is absolutely to script for NFC South matchup.
52:43Love this. Love everything about it. It's absolutely phenomenal.
52:45I'm not trying to be a square. You can play a game.
52:49You pass the time. Nobody even plays four square anymore.
52:52Let's square dance. We're going to get to our four square parlay presented by DraftKings.
52:57We're going to get to our Pick'em Contest. We are entered into the DraftKings Pick'em Contest.
53:01Pick five games every week. You may have heard about those contests.
53:05We are in that. Brandon and I both have selections.
53:08We went three and two last week. Both of us did.
53:11Brandon had a... Brandon in typical Brandon fashion had a terrible start and then dug his way back out of it to
53:18finish three and two as he always does. And I very typically had a tremendous start and then completely fell apart with
53:25the Eagles and the Broncos at the end. That Broncos...
53:28The tackle... 28 missed tackles. How was that ever?
53:3028 missed tackles! That's impossible! Like I enjoyed it.
53:33Don't get me wrong! But I can't feel bad about taking them on the side either.
53:38On the season, both of us three and two.
53:41We're going to play skins on this. So it's 0-0.
53:44Week two is now worth two points. And we'll see where we get to.
53:48So what we're going to do for four squares.
53:51I'm going to give out six to seven sides that I like for the week.
53:55Brandon has to pick from those six to seven square sides for a parlay that we're going to put in.
54:01The four square parlay presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. So here are the sides that I like this week.
54:07Eagles, minus six and a half. Falcons, plus one and a half.
54:10I'm not scared. Jets, plus four and a half.
54:13Ravens, minus eight and a half. Colts, plus six and a half.
54:17Tampa, minus eight and a half. I don't care what it is.
54:20It's Deshaun Watson. And I'm on the other side of the...
54:24I think the Patriots kill them in this game.
54:26I think that Steelers win was fake. I do not think that the Tomlin magic holds up.
54:32But New England is... I think that was a tough spot for New England in a lot of categories.
54:37I think Seattle is still very good. So I like Patriots, minus four and a half.
54:42So Eagles, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Colts, Bucks, Pats. You have to pick four, Brandon.
54:46What's your four square play? All right. Four square choices.
54:49I'm going to start with two that are very easy.
54:52Give me the Ravens. Give me the Colts. We basically made the entire case for those early in the podcast.
54:58So you and I are in those two together.
55:01Ravens, Colts. I will take the Falcons here, given the choices.
55:05I want to anyways. I think I'll feel good about it by Sunday.
55:08So I'll take the Falcons. And then the last one is tough.
55:12You and I are opposite on Eagles and Patriots.
55:15So they're out. I don't trust Bucks, eight and a half, specifically because I think Shadur comes in and maybe they get
55:21a spark and who knows what happens after that.
55:24We had the look ahead Bucks, minus six last week.
55:27I feel good about that. I don't like the eight and a half.
55:31So give me the Jets as the last one.
55:34We didn't talk about that game. I actually, by my numbers, make that nearly a coin flip.
55:39Jets against the Packers. I can't get there. I don't know what my numbers are telling to tell me to do.
55:45I think maybe the Jets lose by three or four and that's how they cover this.
55:50But the Packers, I don't see losing that game.
55:53I think they're much better than perception is right now.
55:56But I'll go Ravens, Colts, Falcons, Jets, all of those against the spread.
56:00That's the four square parlay. And each week we do that.
56:03You parlay four sides together, ATS. You're going to get about a plus 1250 parlay at DraftKings.
56:08And we'll put that into the app and play it.
56:11And we'll hope to hit some of those. I love the Jets.
56:15I think the Jets are good. I just think the Jets are good.
56:19I'm not saying that they're going to like make the AFC championship game.
56:23I think the Jets are good. I just, I really, I liked them last year and saw some stuff.
56:29Like a lot of it is, I did, I learned this from, from covering NFL or for covering NBA.
56:34If you watch a team and you're just like, oh, they know what they're doing.
56:39You could tell teams where it's like, oh, they know what they're doing versus teams where you're like, I do not know what you like the Browns.
56:47You're like, I do not know what you are doing.
56:50Right. The Jets, you know what they're doing. And that's good.
56:53Like there's a plan. There's a plan in place.
56:56I gotta be honest. So especially early in the season, I rewatch every single game after Sunday.
57:01I watch it back again, the condensed version on NFL.com.
57:04And of course I start with like Bill's Texans and, and Bengals box, like the ones that matter, which leaves me watching
57:11Jets, Titans, and Raiders, Dolphins near the end of the week.
57:14Well, guess what? It's near the end of the week.
57:17So last night before I fell asleep, I watched the Dolphins and just like an hour ago before we recorded, I finally
57:24watched the Titans game knowing that I've already put into our dock my Dolphins bet and my Titans bet.
57:30And then I watched them and it's like watching a horror movie, Matt.
57:34It's terrible. These are terrible, terrible looking teams. I don't want to bet them.
57:38And that's, that's why we have to bet them because no one else wants to bet them either.
57:43So your contest picks, are you taking the Jets?
57:46Are they one of your five this week? Yeah.
57:49So my five are going to be Eagles minus six and a half.
57:53I am not. I think the command I'm on the other side where I think the commander's actual defensive line probably is
57:59pretty decent and I'm not ready to like sell on the, on the Eagles O-line yet.
58:04They're too good. I think they've got too much experience.
58:07They still are able to run pretty consistently. I think Eagles minus six and a half is the play Falcons plus one and a half.
58:15I don't trust the pan. I think that Falcons were in that game.
58:19I think the Falcons should have covered that game.
58:21Everyone that's on this side is praying that, that either, either Tua or Penix is available.
58:26Like anyone else. Yeah. Yeah. If it's Cooper rush, I'm going to be like, Oh boy.
58:31You take Jack strand over Cooper rush. Wouldn't you?
58:34Would you take Jack strand over Cooper rush? Yes, I would absolutely.
58:37I would too. Yeah. I would take Jack Palance over Cooper rush.
58:41Uh, so Falcons plus one and a half jets plus four and a half just talked about him.
58:46I think the jets are good. Ravens minus eight and a half.
58:50They're, I, they're a juggernaut. I'm going to back them until the number gets absolutely ridiculous.
58:55And then Colts plus six and a half, because as we talked about a lot of reasons why that's like a perfect
59:02spot to get in and fade the chiefs there.
59:04So Eagles, Falcons, jets, Ravens, Colts. What about you?
59:07What are you playing in the contest? Yeah, my five, I'm going to go Ravens Colts as well.
59:12So you and I are in that together on those two.
59:16I'm going to take the Cowboys minus three and a half.
59:19We talked about that one earlier and I'll take those two nasty long underdogs, the dolphins and the Titans at 13 and
59:26a half and even six and a half. Come on, DraftKings.
59:29You can't give me a seven and a half on that one.
59:33Like that's just mean. Give me the point back on the seven, but I'm sticking with it.
59:38Colts, Cowboys, Ravens, dolphins, Titans. So here's the setup, Matt.
59:41We're playing for two this week because it's skins.
59:44Colts and Cowboys, sorry, Colts and Ravens. They're out.
59:46We got both of them. So I need to get two of the three from dolphins and Titans covering with the Cowboys.
59:53You're banking on Cooper Strand, Agavailoa and the Jets.
59:56And I'm banking on the dolphins and the Titans.
59:58And that's how we've decided to start out our contest for the year.
60:02We are back, baby. We are back. That's going to be it.
60:06That's a four square parlay of the week is Ravens, Colts, Falcons, Jets on the spring.
60:11Remember, you'll want to tell these over at DraftKings because all customers get a profit boost every game day in the month of September.
60:18Don't forget to download the DraftKings sports app and use promo code Action Network when you sign up.
60:24DraftKings, the crown is yours. As we always do, we're going to end with the look ahead.
60:29Let's look ahead. Just give it a shot. How about next week?
60:32I got my mindset on you. I got my mindset on you.
60:36Brandon, let me know. What are you looking forward to in week three?
60:40We're going to go with the first one on week three.
60:43The Thursday night game. Green Bay minus five and a half against those Atlanta Falcons we just talked about.
60:49This is an injuries play for me. If we don't get those guys we talked about, if AJ Terrell and Chris Lindstrom
60:56don't play Sunday, now you got a game like three days after that.
61:00And if you don't play Sunday for what I think is pretty much a tanking team, I'm not sure that we rush
61:06those guys back later in the week either. If Tua and Penix aren't ready Sunday, then they ain't going to be ready.
61:13I don't think Thursday either. And suddenly we're just going to get more of that.
61:17So if those guys are all out, I would make this line minus eight and I'm low on the Packers versus the market too.
61:25So that might even be higher. I think even if some of those guys do play, I like the matchup.
61:31The Packers likely beat the Jets this week, I think.
61:34And we forget about that bad five minutes against the Vikings.
61:37Even if they lose, we get a desperate 0-2 Packers team playing for the season.
61:42So I like the setup either way for Green Bay, Atlanta.
61:45We're going to be looking at them being like, you lost to the Panthers and the Steelers.
61:50My goodness, that is the end for you if that's what happens for them.
61:54They don't have any pass rush to hurt the bad line.
61:58Love's going to pick them apart. Matt LaFleur early in the season is the guy you want to back.
62:0317-5 ATS, first three games of the season, as the best in our database, active or non-active as a coach.
62:09So Packers minus five and a half. Obviously, you know we love that number.
62:14We ducked the six and the seven. I don't see this staying there.
62:18I think by Thursday night, we're at the key number and beyond.
62:21So we'll take Packers minus five and a half against the Falcons Thursday night, week three.
62:26Yeah, hard to argue that. There's also the very strong possibility that either Penix or Tua starts and then is not available for this game.
62:34That seems like. Sure. Not a crazy idea. All right, that'll do it here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL
62:40Week 2 episode of Brandon's Playground, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook.
62:43Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and follow Brandon for any more picks you might be adding in the app before Sunday.
62:51If you want instant notification when action experts track their bets, just go to actionnetwork.com slash pro and use promo code POD20
62:58for $20 off a year of Action Pro. Really need to stress this.
63:02Brandon is always sniping lines and you want to get them immediately.
63:05Make sure to sign up for Action Pro. Thanks for listening.
63:09Enjoy the slate and good luck with all your bets this weekend.
63:12This has been the Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
63:17If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
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