NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

Rodgers has an interception in each of the past two weeks, but all three interceptions through Week 3 were not his fault—drop, tipped passes that should not have been charged to him (last week's interception came right off the receiver's hand to a safety). The source likes the bet on Rodgers no interception at minus 115 odds, noting that historically Rodgers does not turn the ball over.

Alec Pierce got hurt early in the Chiefs' Week 2 game against the Colts, impacting the team's receiving options.

Alec Pierce got hurt early in the Colts game, limiting his availability and impact in Week 1.

Baker Mayfield is the only Vikings running back to do anything in their first three games, with 42 rushing yards; this represents a limited rushing attack for Minnesota.

Bo Nix has been a profitable fade target for bettors; since the start of 2024, in 20 games where the other team received majority ticket support, Nix's team is 14-6 against the spread, making him the 'most profitable quarterback' to fade. This suggests consistent undervaluation of Nix and his team in betting markets, with the public consistently betting against him despite his success.

Brenton Strange is highlighted as a key weapon in the Jaguars' offensive arsenal alongside three elite receivers. The source notes that Liam Cohen can 'spread out teams' using the three receivers and then 'also have Brenton Strange,' suggesting Strange is a featured part of Jacksonville's passing attack and will be used to attack Cincinnati's weak coverage linebackers.

Brock Bowers is described as 'a cheat code' and 'the best unguardable' player on the Raiders offense, highlighting his elite receiving role and matchup advantage against the Chiefs.

Brock Purdy has played 'really unbelievable' through three games, though the source notes the competition level has been weak (Cardinals, Dolphins, Rams in Australia). Purdy's 64% dropback success rate leads the league by a wide margin—12 percentage points ahead of Baltimore at 54%—indicating elite efficiency in the passing game despite the soft schedule.

Stroud and Nico Collins have historically shredded single-high safety coverage; the Dallas Cowboys have been running a lot of single-high looks, which plays directly into Stroud's strengths. The source expects Stroud to have time to throw against Dallas's weak tackles and to take advantage of this favorable defensive scheme.

Cam Ward is struggling as a rookie and showing concerning traits. The source states 'I'm out on Cam Ward' and criticizes his 'nonchalantness' and lack of 'explosiveness' in his play. A specific interception is highlighted as evidence of poor decision-making. Despite the Titans' running game being 'okay' and pass blocking being 'better than you might think,' Ward's play is the limiting factor for Tennessee's offense.

Cam Ward faced minimal pressure from the Giants defense last week with only three pressures; with Brian Burns now out and the secondary banged up, Arizona's offense should have an easier time attacking the Giants' weakened defense.

The Giants' pass rush generated only three pressures on Cam Ward last week, and with Brian Burns out, their best pass rusher is unavailable. The secondary is also banged up, forcing Arizona to keep pace through the air rather than relying on run-heavy game plans like they did in rainy conditions with Skaddebo.

Dak Prescott faces an elite Texans edge rush duo that can 'take advantage of Dallas's tackles,' create negative plays, and force turnovers. The source explicitly states the Texans' defensive edge will 'get after Dak' and that Dallas's offensive line cannot provide resistance, positioning Prescott for a difficult game managing pressure and avoiding mistakes.

Derrick Henry has not been effective in short-yardage situations, as evidenced by being 'stopped at the one' in the previous week's game. The source criticizes the Ravens' play-calling, noting that Henry should not be used in Wildcat formations on goal-line plays; instead, the Ravens should use the sneak or motion a tight end. Henry's ineffectiveness in short yardage is a tactical liability that the Ravens are mismanaging.

Watson has been ineffective against the Steelers' defensive line; in Week 3 against the Panthers, he went 16-of-30 for 144 yards with no big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays, though he finished with two touchdowns and no interceptions. His sample size over the last couple of years remains poor, and the source views the Tampa game (24-30, 238 yards) as an aberration rather than a sign of improvement.

Watson has been terrible in first halves this season, ranking in the bottom five among NFL quarterbacks in EPA and success rate during first-half play; the source expects this trend to regress toward the median in Week 4 against Pittsburgh, particularly after his first home game.

Drake May is completely lost with no confidence; his footwork is off and he cannot grip the ball and throw it forward; the source compares his poor throw at the end of the first half to a Will Levis-level mistake and states he cannot back the Patriots until seeing a competent game from him again.

Drake Maye has looked pathetic and is playing like a baseball player with the yips; the source cannot back him in betting despite the Patriots being in a favorable spot against Buffalo, citing his poor early-season performance.

Wilson saw increased carries (9 for 14 yards) in the previous game against Washington, suggesting he may be taking over more of the workload from Jadarian Price, who was pulled and limited to 5 carries.

Price has a fumbling problem and carries are expected to decline; he was pulled in the previous game against Washington, receiving only 5 carries for 15 yards while Emmanuel Wilson got 9 carries for 14 yards. The source anticipates reduced workload going forward and recommends betting Price unders on both carries and yards.

Jameis Winston has looked terrible early in the season; the Giants went out and acquired J.J. McCarthy, signaling lack of confidence in Winston's performance.

Against Arizona's poor defense, Jameis Winston will likely air it out aggressively rather than rely on the run game; the source expects fireworks in the Cardinals-Giants game with Winston taking shots downfield.

Jaylen Waddle is noted as 'supposedly healthy but in a boot,' indicating a potential injury concern despite official healthy designation. This creates uncertainty about his full availability and effectiveness for Denver against San Francisco, though the source treats Denver as relatively healthy overall compared to San Francisco's injury-ravaged roster.

Joe Burrow will have 'plenty of opportunities to pick apart' the Jacksonville defense, which relies on turnovers and is vulnerable to regression. The source notes that Burrow has faced weak competition at home (Drake May and Deshaun Watson) and that Jacksonville's defense, once turnover regression hits, will be exposed. Burrow's arm talent and decision-making should exploit Jacksonville's secondary vulnerabilities.

Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has been incredible for the Bills; the source contrasts his performance with Drake May's struggles, noting Allen's excellence as a reason to back the Bills against the Patriots.

Allen is banged up heading into the Week 4 matchup against New England, adding some uncertainty to his availability and performance.

Allen is a consistent touchdown vulture; his anytime touchdown odds at minus 115 are underpriced and should be closer to minus 200 every week given his propensity to score near the goal line and on sneaks.

Jefferson did not practice and the source believes there is no reason to rush him back against Miami; he could be held out for two weeks given the Dolphins home game followed by New Orleans and a bye week.

Kenneth Walker has made a significant impact on the Chiefs' run game, which has been non-existent for years, demonstrating his value in a previously pass-heavy offense.

Kirk Cousins is playing well for the Raiders offense, which is functioning effectively with improved coaching, a healthy offensive line (Linderbaum, Colton Miller), and elite receiving talent like Brock Bowers.

The source states that Kyler Murray has not instilled any confidence moving forward for the Vikings offense, which ranks last offensively in EPA per play among all 50 teams that started 3-0 in the last decade; the Vikings are on pace to be outgained by 1,300 yards.

Lamar Jackson is positioned as the Ravens' primary advantage against Tennessee's weak secondary. The source states it is 'hard for me to see Lamar not moving the ball with ease against this Titans secondary,' indicating elite matchup advantage. Jackson's dual-threat ability is also emphasized as superior to running Wildcat formations; the source argues 'Lamar is the Wildcat' because of his elite running ability, making direct snaps to running backs redundant.

The source identifies Malik Willis rushing yards as the best bet in the Vikings-Dolphins game, noting that Willis will get out of the pocket and needs design runs; he is the path for Miami to score explosives against Minnesota's blitzing defense.

Collins is expected to return this week after missing time; his presence on the field transforms the Texans' offense. With Collins on the field, the Texans' rushing offense is significantly more effective, averaging one additional yard per carry due to the respect he commands from defenses. The source views Collins' return as making the Texans' offense 'completely different' and more dangerous.

Nico Collins's return from injury is viewed as a significant boost to the Texans' passing game and overall offensive capability. The source assumes Collins practiced and is back, and explicitly states that his return 'puts this over the top' for the Texans' chances against Dallas, suggesting his presence materially improves Houston's offensive efficiency and matchup advantage.

Patrick Mahomes has historically played well against the Raiders in Vegas; the source notes this as a favorable matchup context when evaluating the Chiefs' Week 4 divisional game against an undefeated Raiders team.

Puka Nakua is expected to play against Philadelphia and is one of the best receivers in the NFL; his availability is important for the Rams' offensive flexibility, as without him McVay would have had to rely more heavily on tight ends given their injuries at that position.

Trevor Lawrence faces a Cincinnati defense that struggles in coverage, particularly with linebackers and safeties. The source notes that if the Bengals' defensive line can generate natural pressure on Lawrence and force him into mistakes, Cincinnati can win; however, the secondary vulnerabilities—especially with Dax Hill moved inside and the nickel cornerbacks on IR—create opportunities for Jacksonville's passing attack.