Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance: Week 7 Picks, Props and Survivor Pool Picks

Baker Mayfield is playing with a protective brace; the source notes this may reduce his passing volume and effectiveness, though the Panthers are described as 'low-key kind of a wagon' defensively.

The source critiques Bo Nix as an extreme checkdown artist, describing him as 'the biggest check down charlie in the history of football literally 701 out of 701,' though acknowledging the truth likely lies between this extreme and his prior season performance when Denver made the AFC Championship game.

Brandon Smith was the wide receiver three for the Pittsburgh Steelers in their game against the Buccaneers; he is an undrafted player from 2021 who attended the University of Iowa and was previously a two-time DC Defender, born in 1998.

Bryce Young's broken plays and scrambles consistently target Jalen Coker downfield; the source uses this as evidence of Coker's role as the Panthers' primary deep threat.

Chris Godwin is out; the source describes him as 'Chris Godwin Jr basically doesn't exist rest in peace,' emphasizing his absence elevates K.D. Cannon's role and reception opportunities.

Christian McCaffrey is a lock for one-yard touchdowns at this stage of his career; adding him to the parlay takes it from 2.34x to 3.12x, and the source believes his touchdown is so unrelated to anything else that happens in the game that it's essentially a mortal certainty.

Christian Watson does not have the full route tree that Matthew Golden has; while Watson will see more red zone plays, the source believes Golden is the superior receiver and more likely to score.

Chuba Hubbard is a strong anytime touchdown play; the source starts every build with one touchdown and when they get Hubbard they know it's locked in; despite the Buccaneers having a good run defense, the Panthers will keep feeding Hubbard (as evidenced by his 25 carries against the Eagles last week on second-and-two, third-and-one, and fourth-and-one situations).

David Montgomery is out, elevating Jaquavius Woody Marks to the primary running back role for the Texans.

Derrick Henry is a lock to score a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC North divisional game; the source states he was put on this earth to score touchdowns in these matchups, and adding him to the parlay takes it from 4.2x to 6.24x.

Deuce Vaughn is the practice squad running back being called up for the Texans; the source notes the Texans' backfield this week consists of Woody Marks, Deuce Vaughn, and Dare Ugumbawale, with Ugumbawale having no rushes on the season.

Emeka Egbuka is listed as doubtful and not expected to play; the source notes he was at practice Friday but the concussion protocol requires Thursday and Friday practice participation, and Friday alone is insufficient, so his absence is expected.

Garrett Wilson is part of the Jets' 11-personnel grouping with Kenya and Sadiq Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. with Breeze Hall; the source describes this as potentially the fifth-best 11-personnel offense and certainly the best in the AFC East.

Geno Smith is an 'EPA merchant' and 'EPA hacker' who has generated 0.3 EPA per play passing, ranking top 15 in per-play passing offense despite limited volume; the source notes he hasn't had many opportunities to rack up negative EPA but consistently produces efficient passing metrics.

George Kittle's anytime touchdown line is priced at approximately 1.58x, which the source finds suspicious because his receptions and receiving yards are juiced (normally around 4.5 receptions and 54.5 yards) while his touchdown number is unchanged; the source calls it a honeypot and feels like sportsbooks know something they don't.

Isaiah Likely is averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game, which would rank him as the wide receiver seven if eligible at that position; priced at 1.7x for anytime touchdown, the source believes he's a good play because the Vikings will be trailing and chucking, and the route trees for Likely work well with JJ McCarthy's tendencies.

JJ McCarthy is expected to perform well in Week 7; the source believes the JJ bulls ran badly, but McCarthy will be in his element playing in the same stadium where he won the national championship; the route trees for tight ends Likely and Neighbors work well for McCarthy because he throws too hard for layups, so these deeper routes allow him to cook.

The source expresses frustration with JK Dobbins' limited rushing production, noting that every 1.7-yard rush from Dobbins will be a painful watch in the Broncos-Cardinals survivor game, indicating concerns about the Broncos' offensive efficiency.

Jalen Coker is targeted for longest reception over 22.5 yards; the source notes that other than the Steelers, the Buccaneers have given up receptions greater than 22.5 in every game, and Coker has 'a ridiculous like yards per target' already, making this a favorable matchup prop.

Jalen Coker is the Panthers' primary deep threat on broken plays and scrambles; the source notes that 'every time there is a bryce young broken play a bryce young scramble like he's you know he's vibing out there it feels like it's always coker is the recipient of that and never tedderoy mcmillan.'

Jalen Coker is the primary deep threat for the Carolina Panthers; the source is taking him over 22.5 yards for his longest reception in the game against Tampa Bay.

Jawar Jordan is out, making Jaquavius Woody Marks the primary running back for the Texans.

The source projects Jalen Waddle to have eight receptions, 112 yards, and a touchdown against Denver this week, framing it as a 'get right spot' for the Dolphins offense against a weak Denver defense.

Jalen Wright started for the Dolphins against the Vikings two games ago; the source notes this as a limited out for Ollie Gordon, suggesting Wright could get carries if Gordon doesn't have the hot hand, though Gordon is expected to be the primary back.

Jonathan Taylor is in trade rumors; the source cites this alongside other Colts roster instability (Nelson's exit, Josh Downs trade speculation) as evidence the team is in disarray heading into their Vikings matchup.

Jordan Mason is an 'EPA hacker' who consistently produces strong rushing yards over expectation and yards before contact metrics despite appearing 'positively Ramondrean or Stevensonian' on film; the source notes he 'always just looks like really good' in the fancy metrics.

Josh Downs is subject to trade speculation from national beat writers; the source describes this as 'insane' but notes it as part of broader Colts roster instability.

Justin Jefferson faces the Colts without Sauce Gardner in coverage; the source emphasizes the Vikings will 'go all in on Justin Jefferson' given the defensive matchup advantage and the Colts' inability to stop the rush, creating a favorable script for Jefferson.

K.D. Cannon is the source's 'goat' and top prop play at 3.5 receptions (minus 160 odds, 1.6x multiplier); with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out, Cannon has produced 9 for 81 and 2 TDs vs. Atlanta, 8 for 77 and 1 TD vs. Kansas City, and 5 for 35 with no TD vs. San Francisco in 2024. The source notes Godwin 'basically doesn't exist' and Emeka Egbuka is doubtful, leaving Cannon as the primary receiving option.

Kenneth Walker is a mortal certainty to score an anytime touchdown against his former team Seattle in a revenge game; the source notes this is so set in stone that DraftKings and Underdog had to add more to their player reserve funds because it changed their financial forecast, with the liability coming up in underdog sale discussions.

The source humorously references Malik Willis as the reason to plan survivor strategy around the Broncos, implying Willis' poor play with Denver makes them a risky pick despite being favored against Arizona.

Matthew Golden is the best wide receiver on the Packers and is getting plus odds on his anytime touchdown; the source has a strong conviction that Golden is better than Christian Watson, noting that Golden has a more complete route tree and is a very special player with impressive point-of-catch ability; the source acknowledges this is their most controversial opinion but won't change their mind.

Mike Evans is out, leaving K.D. Cannon as the primary receiving option for the Buccaneers; the source emphasizes Evans' absence as the key reason Cannon's reception total is elevated.

Ollie Gordon is targeted for a lower on rushing plus receiving yards at 59.5; the source argues the combined total is overpriced because adding the individual rushing (49.5) and receiving (14.5) projections doesn't reach 60, suggesting the sportsbook is overestimating his combined output. The source also notes Gordon has outs (Jalen Wright could get carries) but expects him to be the primary back.

Ollie Gordon's anytime touchdown prop was initially selected as higher but the source accidentally clicked lower instead, creating a brief moment of confusion about the selection.

The source notes that Ollie Gordon ripped off a 60-yard run in the Vikings-Cardinals game that could have led to a scoring drive, highlighting his explosive play potential despite the Cardinals' overall offensive struggles.

The source notes uncertainty about Puka Nacua's availability for the Rams, suggesting the Rams' season is 'hanging on by a thread' if they don't win without him, indicating his importance to their offensive success.

Woody Marks is effectively the sole running back for the Houston Texans; the source notes this is unusual because even backup running backs like Hubbard typically get some snaps, but Marks might be the only running back to get a touch in the game.