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How To Win Your Auction Draft This Season (Episode 1009 with Adam Levitan and NFFC Hall of Famer Chris Eibl)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

49 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 15, 2026
Published
Sat, August 15, 2026
61
Player insights
47
Players mentioned
Topics
Tank BigsbyBrian RobinsonBrock BowersChris RodriguezColston LovelandDavante AdamsDavid MontgomeryJosh DownsLuther BurdenMarShawn LloydMike EvansParker WashingtonTrey McBrideBijan Robinson
Player analysis

Player insights

61

Bijan Robinson

PositiveValue41:54

In 10-team auction leagues, Chris Eibl recommends being aggressive on the top tier, noting that spending $70-plus on elite players like Bijan Robinson is a viable strategy because the league is shallow enough to fill out the rest of the roster later.

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Brian Robinson

PositiveSleeper29:01

Chris Eibl identifies Brian Robinson as a deeper target suitable for high-stakes league endgame strategies.

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NegativeUsage32:29

While Adam Levitan is not convinced Brian Robinson would 'smash' as a handcuff, he acknowledges that any running back with a three-down role in the Falcons offense will likely hit RB2 ranks purely through volume.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeValue20:24

Chris Eibl is comfortable with Brock Bowers at cost but prefers not to target him in difficult leagues, preferring to wait for value in the middle tier of tight ends.

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PositiveValue43:47

Adam Levitan advocates for spending heavily on elite tight ends like Brock Bowers in 10-team leagues, as the waiver wire does not offer players capable of matching their production, unlike the running back and wide receiver positions.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeRole3:58

Chris Eibl views Bucky Irving as a viable, low-cost running back option to help fill out a roster in standalone leagues.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveBreakout38:38

Adam Levitan expects Carnell Tate to see significant price inflation in auction drafts as preseason highlights generate hype among drafters.

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Chase Brown

NegativeValue15:10

Adam Levitan notes that Chase Brown has been gaining steam in the market, potentially making him less of an overlooked value than previously thought.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeValue29:17

Chris Eibl notes that Chris Rodriguez is currently going for $3-$4 in auctions, though he could potentially be acquired for less depending on the draft room.

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PositiveValue30:59

Chris Rodriguez is a strong value target in auction drafts, typically going for $3-$4, though he could be had for a couple of dollars. He provides a reliable floor even in a committee, making him an excellent insurance policy for backfield injuries.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeValue20:24

Chris Eibl is comfortable with Colston Loveland at cost but does not prioritize him in competitive leagues, preferring to wait for value in the middle tier of tight ends.

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PositiveValue43:47

Adam Levitan includes Colston Loveland among the elite tight ends worth a significant auction spend in 10-team leagues, citing the difficulty of finding similar production on the waiver wire.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue27:32

Adam Levitan and Chris Eibl view D'Andre Swift as an interesting auction value, with Levitan noting he prefers Swift over David Montgomery in snake drafts.

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Davante Adams

PositiveValue24:06

Chris Eibl suggests that in deeper formats like 14-team leagues, a collection of players like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Parker Washington is preferable to a single star like Justin Jefferson.

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PositiveValue27:01

Adam Levitan highlights Davante Adams as part of a preferred $15 receiver tier in auction drafts that offers significant value.

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David Montgomery

NegativeRole3:58

Chris Eibl is comfortable rostering David Montgomery in standalone leagues as a serviceable running back option to help complete a roster.

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PositiveValue26:07

Adam Levitan identifies David Montgomery as an unsexy but high-volume asset who could be a value in auctions if he goes for $15 or less, despite his $20 market price.

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De'Von Achane

NegativeValue15:15

Adam Levitan notes that there is a split in the market regarding Devon Achane, with many drafters avoiding him, making him a potential candidate to go overlooked.

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DeVonta Smith

PositiveValue3:44

Chris Eibl identifies Devonta Smith as a strong opportunity to stack the wide receiver three spot, noting he is potentially cheaper than he should be in the current auction landscape.

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DK Metcalf

PositiveValue27:27

Adam Levitan views DK Metcalf as undervalued, noting he lacks buzz despite a strong outlook; he believes Metcalf is a great addition to a wide receiver core if he can be acquired for $5-6 in an auction.

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Drake London

NegativeValue15:02

Adam Levitan notes that Drake London is a player who may go overlooked at the top of the board, as drafters are less excited to aggressively price-enforce him compared to other stars.

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Emeka Egbuka

NegativeValue38:53

Adam Levitan notes that Emeka Egbuka is currently being drafted at a high price point, suggesting that drafters are already paying for his potential upside.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveSleeper23:24

Chris Eibl highlights Isaiah Likely as a potential $2 target who offers upside at the tight end position.

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Isiah Pacheco

NegativeBust32:29

Adam Levitan is skeptical of Isaiah Pacheco's upside as a handcuff, noting it is difficult to envision a scenario where an injury to the starter makes Pacheco a stud.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeValue47:36

Adam Levitan uses Ja'Marr Chase as an example of the fairness of auction drafts, noting that unlike snake drafts where the number eight pick precludes you from drafting him, an auction provides every manager with the opportunity to acquire him.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveValue41:54

Chris Eibl suggests that in 10-team auction formats, managers should not fear spending $70-plus on top-tier assets like Jahmyr Gibbs, as the shallow nature of these leagues allows for filling out the remainder of the roster effectively.

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Jakobi Meyers

PositiveValue34:08

Jakobi Meyers is highlighted as a $4 auction target who provides enough confidence to start, given his previous production pace with the Jaguars.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveValue34:20

Jalen Coker is identified as a $4 auction target who could potentially keep up with mid-round wide receiver picks once healthy.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveValue27:01

Adam Levitan highlights Jameson Williams as part of a preferred $15 receiver tier in auction drafts that offers significant value.

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Javonte Williams

NegativeRole3:58

Chris Eibl considers Javonte Williams a serviceable running back option to help complete a roster in standalone leagues.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

PositiveValue13:31

Chris Eibl suggests nominating Jaxon Smith-Njigba early to potentially secure him at a price closer to Lamb or Jefferson rather than Puka, as drafters often hold cash for the top four stars.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeValue44:32

Adam Levitan warns against 'price enforcing' on players like Jayden Daniels, noting that bidding on a player just to force others to pay more is a poor risk-reward strategy that can result in wasting budget on a player you don't actually want.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveValue13:31

Chris Eibl identifies Jonathan Taylor as an expensive but high-ceiling player who can be targeted as a 'boring' option; he suggests nominating him early to potentially acquire him in the 30s while others hoard cash for top-tier stars.

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Jonathon Brooks

PositiveValue39:02

Adam Levitan likes the current auction price for Jonathan Brooks but warns that his price will likely increase significantly once he demonstrates health during the preseason.

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Jordyn Tyson

PositiveBreakout38:24

Adam Levitan expects Jordan Tyson's auction price to skyrocket to around $20 if he makes a spectacular highlight-reel catch during the preseason, though Levitan advises against chasing such hype.

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Josh Allen

PositiveValue43:47

Adam Levitan is significantly more willing to spend heavily on elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen in 10-team leagues because the waiver wire provides ample depth at running back and wide receiver, but lacks high-end quarterback production.

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Josh Downs

PositiveValue24:37

Adam Levitan and Chris Eibl agree that Josh Downs is undervalued in auction drafts, noting that his price has not yet caught up to his potential upside.

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PositiveValue28:47

Adam Levitan suggests that Josh Downs' current auction price has not yet caught up to where it should be, implying he remains a value target.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeValue27:32

Adam Levitan notes that Josh Jacobs can occasionally be found for as low as $15 in auction drafts if the room is hesitant to bid on him.

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Justin Jefferson

NegativeValue24:06

Chris Eibl notes that in deeper 14-team formats, he would rather have a collection of mid-tier players than a single high-cost star like Justin Jefferson.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeBust25:28

Chris Eibl suggests there is a risk that Keenan Allen could see a decline in performance, potentially making him an ineffective asset compared to younger teammates like Josh Downs.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeValue35:42

Adam Levitan notes that it is unique to see running backs in the tier of Kenneth Walker III being drafted ahead of wide receivers like A.J. Brown, Drake London, and Nico Collins in current auction markets.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveValue45:35

Chris Eibl advises staying present during an auction to potentially capitalize on 'boring' players like Kyren Williams, who might be available at a significant discount (e.g., $12) if other managers overlook them.

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Lamar Jackson

PositiveValue43:47

Adam Levitan prioritizes spending high capital on elite quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson in 10-team leagues, noting that the scarcity of such production makes them worth the investment compared to the easily replaceable skill positions on the waiver wire.

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Luther Burden

NegativeValue23:51

Adam Levitan notes that Luther Burden is a prime candidate for irrational bidding wars in auction drafts due to hype, potentially driving his price up to the equivalent of a second-round pick despite his recent injury.

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NegativeInjury40:31

Adam Levitan mentions that Luther Burden suffered an injury that impacted his draft stock, noting that he was not willing to draft him in the third round even before the injury occurred.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveSleeper28:36

Chris Eibl highlights MarShawn Lloyd as a great home league option for endgame strategy, focusing on his contingent upside.

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PositiveValue37:12

Adam Levitan notes that Marshawn Lloyd is currently a $1 player in auctions, but warns that his price will likely see heavy steam and increase significantly once he shows he is healthy in the preseason.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue24:06

Chris Eibl suggests that in deeper formats like 14-team leagues, a collection of players like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Parker Washington is preferable to a single star like Justin Jefferson.

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PositiveValue27:01

Adam Levitan highlights Mike Evans as part of a preferred $15 receiver tier in auction drafts that offers significant value.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue24:06

Chris Eibl suggests that in deeper formats like 14-team leagues, a collection of players like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Parker Washington is preferable to a single star like Justin Jefferson.

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PositiveValue25:01

Adam Levitan identifies Parker Washington as part of a valuable $15 receiver tier, noting that while he has some hype, many home leagues have not yet caught up to his actual value.

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Pat Bryant

NegativeValue37:20

Adam Levitan identifies Pat Bryant as a player currently valued as a $1 auction asset, though he warns that hype can cause these late-round players to become over-drafted.

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Ray Davis

PositiveSleeper29:01

Chris Eibl suggests Ray Davis as a deeper target for high-stakes leagues, focusing on his contingent upside.

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Tank Bigsby

PositiveSleeper28:36

Chris Eibl lists Tank Bigsby as a viable endgame option for home league drafts.

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PositiveSleeper32:02

Adam Levitan identifies Tank Bigsby as a high-priority bench stash because he is confident that Bigsby would 'absolutely smash' if Saquon Barkley were to miss time.

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NegativeUsage34:09

Chris Eibl warns against nominating Tank Bigsby in the endgame if other teams have money, as it wastes a nomination on a player that opponents with remaining budget might easily outbid you for.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveValue17:20

Chris Eibl identifies Trevor Lawrence as his favorite quarterback in the middle tier, citing his rushing upside and the potential to acquire him for a very low cost compared to top-tier options.

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Trey McBride

NegativeValue20:24

Chris Eibl is comfortable with Trey McBride at cost but generally avoids targeting him in competitive leagues, preferring to wait for value in the middle tier.

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PositiveValue43:47

Adam Levitan suggests that in 10-team leagues, managers should be willing to spend a significant portion of their budget on elite tight ends like Trey McBride, as the waiver wire is unlikely to yield comparable production.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveValue3:44

Chris Eibl highlights Zay Flowers as an undervalued wide receiver option to target for building out a roster, particularly in the wide receiver three slot.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

522
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1009 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:08And with drafting season nearly upon us, it is time to discuss the purest form of fantasy football drafting, the auction draft.
0:15For this, we are joined by old friend of the show, one of the sharpest auction players I've met.
0:21He's in the NFFC Hall of Fame. I can't believe there's an NFFC Hall of Fame, but there is and he's in it.
0:29Has insane results in auctions that has led him to third on the money list there.
0:34It is the one and only Chris Eibl from the high stakes streets.
0:38Chris, how's it going today? I'm doing great. Just like I said, just got back from a family vacation in Maine and
0:45gearing up for the usual trips to New York and Vegas for some high stakes auctions.
0:50Very exciting stuff. On today's show, we are going to discuss all things auction drafts 2026.
0:55Strategy adjustments, this year's auction landscape, best auction practices for this year, and lots more.
1:00I just also want to say huge thanks to Chris for doing this.
1:04He's playing big, but he still comes on here each year and tries to help out his fellow auction bros.
1:11So always appreciate the time and candor from Chris.
1:14Before we get into it here today, reminder that if you have a fantasy football draft coming up, we can help.
1:20Our NFL early bird bundle product is now live.
1:23That price is up for a limited time. It combines DraftKings Pro with our in-season product.
1:28DraftKings Pro, of course, includes all of our auction values, auction strategy, and cheap players to target.
1:34And then in-season, we will have Thorman's rankings and tons of other season-long content as well.
1:39So for more details on the early bird bundle or just DraftKip Pro, head to the subscribe tab on establishtherun.com.
1:45All right, Chris. I want to talk about the landscape first here in 2026 because I think we've seen some important changes.
1:53In snake drafts, the thirst for running back once we get past the first three wide receivers is absolutely out of control.
2:00In snake drafts, I'm expecting 12 of the first 20 picks this year to be running backs.
2:05What do you think that means for the auction streets this year?
2:09So I always want to pivot against trends, whether it's running back thirst or any other position.
2:14So doing the same thing as everyone else doesn't give you any type of edge.
2:19So if everyone else is panicking about running backs, that just means discounts at other positions.
2:24So I'm seeing really good opportunities to stack your wide receiver three spot this year with like Devonta Smith, Zay Flowers.
2:31And I've always been comfortable, especially in these standalone leagues where you're not trying to compete with a large field.
2:38Uh, rostering guys like Montgomery, Bucky Irving, Javante Williams, just guys who can get you by at that running back position.
2:44So yeah, the punchline is like, you don't win auctions by overpaying for the same position.
2:49Everyone else is changing. Yeah. Excuse me. Yeah. Do you think that these first running backs are, are bloated in price?
2:56Like, you know, I like a lot of these guys, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, James Cook.
3:01Um, I could put Chase Brown, I could poke some holes in H and and Martin Hampton, certainly, but I guess coming
3:08into my thought wasn't that they're overvalued necessarily. They're just expensive, but it sounds like maybe you think they're also overvalued.
3:15No, it's, it's not so much that they're overvalued.
3:18I've just always found it easier to construct a team wide receiver first, wide receiver first, because it allows you to use
3:25your waiver wire ability to pick up running backs as guys get hurt.
3:29So that's always just been an easier approach for me more so than anything's wrong with, with the guys you mentioned.
3:36Yep. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah.
3:39And that's like the auction specific strategy that I think is important to think through when you're playing auctions.
3:45You know, most auction players, most successful auction players employ a stars and scrub strategy.
3:50If you are passing on some of these expensive running backs and going for maybe undervalued stuff, Zay Flowers, Devonta Smith, you
3:57mentioned might be cheaper than they should, which I think is certainly, certainly possible as well.
4:02Are you still into stars and scrubs based on this year's landscape?
4:06Yeah. So no need to pivot from stars and scrubs this year, especially in those, those, uh, shallower formats.
4:12Yeah. I, one thing that I was thinking about stars and scrubs format is that I don't know if you feel this,
4:19but I feel like there's fewer good fantasy players and we can see this in the data too.
4:25Like scoring is down. Passing yardage is down. Um, plays per game is down.
4:29Um, and some of that I think is like kickoff rule stuff.
4:33I think some of that is also offensive coordinators responding to soft defenses by running the ball more.
4:39And so I think there's like been a macro change in NFL where it's harder for me to find round 16, 17,
4:4618, 19, 20 snake draft picks that I like.
4:49Does that flow through to auction where it's harder to find $1, $2 guys to complete out a stars and scrubs, uh, type of construction?
4:57I still think there are enough guy, like enough, like committee backfields for instance, where, you know, you don't have to necessarily
5:04know who's going to be best, but you can acquire the whole Washington backfield, the whole Carolina backfield.
5:10And still fill out those stars and scrubs lineups with, uh, with, with pretty good players.
5:15Um, some wide receivers get suppressed, uh, in the, in those formats, like the Colts and the green Bay guys that I
5:22think are, are people like, but we're still not seeing the prices catch up to that.
5:27So, um, I still think there are ways to fill out your, your roster with the stars and scrubs approach.
5:34You know, as I'm saying that it does kind of strike me that the stars are even better.
5:39In other words, like what we see is that wide receiver threes and wide receiver fours are getting worse.
5:46They're on the field. Last teams are throwing less often.
5:49And then you would get the wide receiver one and riders rear two competing more against tight ends and running backs for targets.
5:56They're going to win that battle. So like, yeah, the stars, I, yeah, it makes more sense.
6:02It makes more sense to me that there are, the stars are even better this year as it gets more condensed in
6:09terms of how teams are using their players. Um, oh, we always get the same question when we talk about stars and
6:16scrubs, Chris, they want to know what you mean by stars and scrubs.
6:20How much of your, how much of your budget is stars?
6:23Should they be having all stars and then like six, $1 guys or something like that?
6:29Or, or where do you draw the line on what's too much stars in a stars and scrubs construction?
6:35Yeah. So for this is going to be format specific, but if you're typical, like 12 team league, where maybe you're starting
6:42three receivers, um, you don't really want to go more than like 60% of your budget on those like top couple guys,
6:49because you don't want to leave both your wide receiver three and your flex spot uncovered.
6:54But where I start to get really aggressive is if there's two wide receiver formats or 10 team formats, I don't have a problem.
7:02Like you think of a typical 10 team league.
7:05If I get like Bijan and Gibbs for $75 a piece, like I can still get guys like Parker Washington and Devante
7:12Adams in that format just to fill out the roster.
7:15So definitely the shallower that, uh, roster is like that format is like the more you want to push up big prices on those, those top stars.
7:24Yeah. Okay. I mentioned that. I thought it was an interesting year or thinking it's an interesting year for stars to really separate from everyone else.
7:32Of course, stars are the hardest to acquire because even in casual leagues, you know, not high stakes or whatever there are,
7:39you know, everybody's going to want Jamar Chase, Gibbs, Puka, et cetera.
7:43How do you think about building around expensive guys?
7:46And are there any quote unquote unsexy guys near the top of the board that you think might get overlooked?
7:52Yeah, we we've talked before about how drafters are often timid early at the start of drafts.
7:58And I've always theorized that it's because there are probably multiple guys game planning around exactly the guys you mentioned, Bijan, Gibbs, Chase.
8:05And they kind of want to hoard that cash early because they've mapped out their whole draft around those guys.
8:11So I think that's the perfect time to nominate like the tier below a couple of my expensive favorites are Jonathan Taylor, JSN.
8:19And nominating those guys while Bijan, Gibbs and Chase are still on the board kind of forces everyone else to make a
8:26decision on them before before they're really ready, ready to.
8:29And, you know, Taylor in particular, we saw expanded past game usage still has running back one ceiling, but he's still viewed
8:36as somewhat as a or somewhat of a boring option by a lot of people.
8:41So the hope is by nominating them early, you're getting Taylor in the 30s or JSN at more of the Lamb Jefferson
8:48price than the Puka price when guys are holding on to those holding on to their wallets until those big four get nominated.
8:56Yeah, a couple of guys that came to mind for me as like top of the board might go overlooked.
9:02I don't know what you think. Drake London feels like people aren't that excited to like price enforce or run you up your price on.
9:10And also, I was gonna say Chase Brown, but I think he's gotten more steam lately.
9:15And then definitely Devon HN like I'm not on HN, but there's a lot of people like me that are also not on HN.
9:23So yeah, any thoughts on those guys going overlooked London HN or Chase Brown?
9:27Yeah, I see that second tier running through HN and Drake London.
9:31So I don't think player takes are super important.
9:34So like those guys exactly fit into the tier of the kind of guy where you nominate them early.
9:40People are gonna be like, I don't know what to do.
9:44I wanted to spend all this money on B.
9:47John and gets right. Yeah, it's a lot of sense.
9:50Okay. Anything stand out to you at quarterback this year?
9:53You know, for us, we have this huge tier of similarly projected quarterbacks from basically like Dak Prescott all the way to golf.
10:00And that tier includes a lot of guys that frankly, I like Jackson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Stafford, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Purdy, Mahomes.
10:09And I know I mentioned Dak and golf already.
10:11That kind of stands out to me that there's such a huge tier that we have projected similarly this year.
10:18Any thoughts on applying that to auction or any other quarterback thoughts?
10:22Yeah. And like interesting observation for me, like I don't base my values off of Vegas props, but like I was just
10:29looking at season leader passing props for fun. And four of the five favorites to lead the league in passing and passing
10:36touchdowns are like two $2 guys this year. You got Dak, golf, Stafford, Purdy.
10:40You've got rushing upside with Lawrence, who might be my favorite in that range.
10:45So, yeah, my instinct is to wait on this massive like middle tier of guys you mentioned and just take two of whoever is cheapest.
10:53It's not to say I won't bid on May or Burrow when there's like a discount to be had.
10:59Like by that, I mean when they drop to like a $7, $8 range.
11:03But, yeah, sign me up for that middle tier if I'm not getting a discount elsewhere.
11:09Yeah. So, like on our suggested values, like we have Josh Allen for 27, and this is out of a 200 budget.
11:16You know, Josh Allen, 27, Lamar, 18, Jaden, 15, Jalen Hurts, 13.
11:20Like in a vacuum, I think those are all good values.
11:23But if you tell me that I can get Trevor Lawrence for two, it seems really bad to spend 30 or whatever
11:30it takes to get Josh Allen, right? So, like I don't know.
11:34Like I don't know if people are going to be – I don't know if everybody thinks that or people are going
11:41to be like clicking the button on Josh Allen Lamar a lot.
11:45Yeah. So, like I think that I can get a little bit later and price enforcing also, which Chris just brought up.
11:52I did want to touch on the tight end landscape here.
11:56So, elite tight end is a controversial subject this year.
11:59There are people who think Brock Bowers is going to break the league and next year be a top five overall pick in Snake.
12:06And then there are people who think that taking Bowers, McBride, Loveland is too expensive given the tight end position.
12:13So, it's tough in auctions. Certainly, you still need a tight end.
12:17But what do you think about handling the elite tight ends, Bowers, McBride, and the Loveland steam, which I assume is coming?
12:24Yeah. I'm fine with like Bowers, McBride, Loveland at cost.
12:27And, you know, similar to that tier quarterbacks I just mentioned, I'll throw in bids of like 70% of what I think they're worth, 80%.
12:35And maybe I get lucky, maybe I don't. But they're maybe not targets of mine unless I'm in a shallower league, like
12:42a 10-team league or a home league where I can really build up my wide receiver and running back positions easier.
12:49And the reason there's just not maybe a target in maybe more difficult leagues is because, like, I know you're comfortable with the top eight this year.
12:58And when I look at that Fannin, Kraft, Pitts, or Laporta tier, it's the same thing as the quarterbacks.
13:04I don't know which of those guys is only going to go for $5 or $6.
13:09But because there are four of them, I know one of them will.
13:13And so, I think you're getting a fairly high floor and ceiling from all those guys that, like, in a tougher league, I'm sticking with that range.
13:22Absolutely. Yeah, and, like, Kraft, Laporta, Fannin, Pitts, I agree with you.
13:26Like, all four of them, I think, are similar-ish outlooks and bets.
13:29Like, I have personal preferences, but we certainly have them pretty close there.
13:34And then beyond that, like, even if you missed on that tier, which in auction, I don't think you really should.
13:40But even if you missed on that tier, I mean, you have George Kittle later.
13:45You have Don Kincaid later. I mean, there's some, like, legit options that are maybe going to be very, very cheap.
13:52Like, do you think you'd get Kincaid or Kittle for, like, $1 or two?
13:56Is that possible? Yeah. I haven't seen Kittle go for that cheap.
14:00I think there are enough people excited about Kittle in most auctions.
14:04But, yeah, you might like those guys. I might like Isaiah Likely just to see if he can cross that next tier.
14:11I think there's enough to make you feel like you're leaving a draft with some upside at that $2 range.
14:18Yeah. Okay. Let's go to roster construction. I wanted to ask about balanced builds.
14:22I know we talk so much about stars and scrubs on here.
14:26Are there any dynamics that would lead you to a balanced build this season?
14:30The only time I'm intentionally shooting for a balanced build is those deeper formats, like with a 14-teamer, where if you do
14:38go stars and scrubs, you might only be one injury away from, like, starting Justice Hill and hoping he catches a couple dump-off passes for five points.
14:46So, yeah, in 14-teamers, I might skew a little more towards, like, I'd rather have the collection of Mike Evans, Devontae Adams,
14:53and Parker Washington than, like, a single Justin Jefferson.
14:56But, in general, like, I think, you know, with myself, I think a lot of your listeners probably fit that waiver wire
15:03grinder mold where I feel like that shines best with the stars and scrubs approach.
15:08Right. And, yeah, if you're going to go stars and scrubs, like Chris is saying, you better be prepared to grind the wire.
15:15You know, like, we're going to help you as much as we can with the shows and the Q&As and our waiver
15:23wire list and everything else as part of the product.
15:26But, yeah, you've got to be in there to grind the waiver wire if you're going to go stars and scrubs.
15:33So, yeah, certainly be sure that you are up for that.
15:36Oh, we got a question from someone. I forgot to write in the name.
15:41He said, in more casual leagues, the stars will go for more than they should.
15:45What is our strategy if so? So, it's kind of like what we already talked about here where there's certain guys that are going to go.
15:54The stars are going to go for a lot.
15:57And what happens if you get in a room where everybody's trying to go stars and scrubs and even Jonathan Taylor and
16:04Drake London and Divine HN and all these guys are getting overbid based on your values?
16:09How do you respond then? Yeah, I think I still want to anchor my team to one star.
16:15So, maybe the first thing I'll say is, like, a lot of times I'll get questions where people say these stars are going for too much.
16:23Just make sure you're not in one of those shallower formats because, like, I don't think 70-something is too much for Bijan and Gibbs in a shallower format.
16:32But let's say they truly are going for too much.
16:35My preferred strategy is to zag then. And, like, well, I think it's appropriate to zag.
16:40Like, I think the mistake people make doing that is they wait until, like, the round four type guys to start buying.
16:47So, my preferred approach in that instance is maybe a one-star hybrid where, like, I'm playing a slight premium for that one star just because I have to.
16:56The market's making me. But as soon as the top tier clears out, if they're truly paying too much for those top
17:0324 players, like, I should be able to get the immediate next tier, like, Olave or George Pickens or something's wrong with my math.
17:11And so, like, I usually handle that with an inflation tracker in Excel, which sounds complicated, but it's really just actual winning bids against my projections going in.
17:20And if guys are going for too much, like, that discount should come in the next tier or two.
17:26Yeah. Well, the average, you know, budget that people have remaining is just going to keep going down, which obviously you should
17:33be tracking during your auction, too, how much money your opponents have left and how many spots that they need to fill.
17:40How much is an overpay, I guess? Like, let's say you have Josh Allen for 27 as your value.
17:47How bad is it to pay 30 for him?
17:49Or how bad is it to pay 32 for Josh Allen?
17:53How strict are you with your values going in?
17:56The only time I'm really wanting to overpay, like I said, is if it is for, like, one of those top 20 type talents.
18:04So, like, you'd never catch me unless it's, like, a super flex overpaying for Josh Allen.
18:09But if I am trying to overpay to get that star in my lineup, like, it can make sense to do 20%
18:16if I'm just trying to force, like, a single star in my lineup.
18:20Because, like I said, if you get left out until, like, the fourth round, then you risk having, like, guys you spent
18:27a lot on end up on your bench. And that's just of no use to you.
18:32Yep. Okay. You mentioned a little bit about nomination strategy already.
18:36General, more general nomination strategy. Should you be nominating guys you want or guys that you don't and then early, late, anything
18:43else on who to nominate when it is your turn to throw a guy out there?
18:48Yeah. Kind of expanding on what I mentioned about, like, Taylor and JSN, I always think it's easier to get guys when
18:55you're nominating just a single tier below, like, the current crop of players who's being nominated.
19:00So, like, that extends down the board where, like, if Kenneth Walker's the last, like, second round type running back left, that's
19:07the time to nominate Brees Hall or Javante Williams.
19:10The only thing I'll caution there is, like, don't go too far down your board because, like, if Jonathan Brooks is your sleeper, you're nominating him.
19:18Like, no one's going to view buying Jonathan Brooks as an impediment to buying Kenneth Walker.
19:24So, like, just stick to a tier below. Aside from that, the other nomination rule I go by is just to adjust on room, like, the room temperature.
19:33Basically, if guys are going for too cheap, you should be buying as much as possible, nominating guys you want at that
19:40moment before people realize they are going for too cheap.
19:43And conversely, if guys are going for too much, then that's when I want to throw out in that moment the guys I'm less interested in.
19:51Yeah. What about endgame nomination strategy? Like, you're down to six bucks, you have four spots to fill.
19:57There's certainly strategy in, like, bidding two when your opponents only have one dollar left on a guy that you want anything else for endgame nomination strategy.
20:06I would say second to knowing what your league has paid in the past for prices, like, the most important prep thing
20:13you need to do is set those one or two dollar guys, like, targets.
20:17Like, I know you recently had, like, a late round flyer article where you listed one injury away guys.
20:23Like, that's the type of thing I'm looking at and being, like, who am I targeting for one dollar or two dollars?
20:31Because my bench, I want that all to be about contingent upside.
20:34So, like, step one, get that list out. Be prepared of knowing who you're targeting.
20:39And then step two, like, look around the room.
20:42See who has money. If everyone has one dollar except for two teams have two dollars and one of those is the
20:49Saquon owner, like, don't nominate Tank Bigsby. Like, you know, you just wasted your nomination because that guy's hanging on to his two bucks.
20:57So, like, a little more advanced strategy would just be, like, to be really careful about, like, other teams' rosters needs who
21:04have more money than you and can kind of, like, lay down a hammer on you.
21:09Yeah, we have an article in the auction section of DraftKid where we're updating and continuously maintaining a list of our favorite one- and two-hour players.
21:17There's players we expect to go for one or two dollars.
21:21So, yeah, you can certainly take that to your draft and certainly bring some of your own there as well.
21:27Really important for the end. Okay. Let's talk about some of the trends going on this year in auctions.
21:34We mentioned the running back thirst. Is there anything else you've seen in terms of auction trends this year that is unique to this season?
21:42Yeah, nothing too crazy. Like, I think it is a little different to see guys like Gentry through Walker tier of running backs, like, above the A.J.
21:50Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins types. But I don't think that running back thirst is necessarily permeating to, like, the middle of the draft.
21:58So, in general, I don't know that there are any differences that are too substantial that auction players need to take into consideration just from the overall landscape.
22:07Okay. I don't know, like, if these auction- most of the auction opponents are, like, on Twitter and stuff, but there is some crazy steam going on.
22:16Like, players going up five, six rounds in ADP based on hype, etc.
22:20Are there any players you think are going to get bloated at auction this year?
22:25We already talked about some of the running backs at the top.
22:28But, gosh, I mean, you know, I log in now.
22:32I go to do a draft and I see Marshawn Lynch going in- Sorry.
22:36Marshawn Lloyd going in round 13. And Jaden Blue going in round 14.
22:40And Pat Bryant going in round 15. You know, these guys are, like, $1 players in auction.
22:46I understand that, but my point is that the steam on this can get really out of control.
22:52So, are there any players in the auction street specifically you think are going to get bloated this year?
22:58Yeah, I think it happens every year with, like, the preseason highlights and young ride receivers in particular.
23:04Like, I think the first time Jordan Tyson makes one of those, like, spectacular pirouette catches that, like, we've been seeing in highlight videos.
23:11Like, he's going to become a- It wouldn't shock me if he became, like, a $20 player at that point.
23:18Like, Carnell Tate, same thing. So, I think those are kind of the guys that are going to get steamed up as we get closer to the draft.
23:27You might have another class of players that have really high upside but are maybe being paid at that upside.
23:33Like, people are clamoring over Egbuka. I keep seeing him go higher and higher.
23:38Maybe the other two guys you hit on one of them, Marshawn Lloyd.
23:42Like, the second Marshawn Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks, like, pull off a preseason run where they look healthy.
23:48Like, I think we're going to see some real heavy steam.
23:51And I like their prices today, but I don't know that I'll like them tomorrow.
23:56Yeah, and I assume you're not chasing things like Tyson and Tate up the board, right?
24:01No, I definitely think it's best not to get caught up in the hype.
24:06Like, I think, like, as we see people rise and fall, I think it's important to analyze, like, whether what drove them
24:13to rise or fall, like, really matters or not.
24:16And I don't necessarily think, like, you know, preseason depth charts might, but preseason highlights don't really sway it for me.
24:22Do you get the sense that people are more anchored to their prices in auction?
24:27I'm sorry, more anchored to ADP and Snake than, like, prices in auction.
24:31In other words, like, I know people, including myself, like, before this Luther Burden injury really wanted to take him.
24:38But I still wasn't going to be like, oh, third round Luther Burden, no problem, because I'm more anchored to ADP.
24:44But in an auction, I could see myself being, getting, like, out of control.
24:49Like, hey, man, you're not taking Luther Burden. And for me, you know what I mean?
24:54And so, like, I guess my point is that I think the steam on guys like Burden or Parker Washington, or I
25:01don't know, maybe Parker Washington is a bad example.
25:04But the steam on guys who have a lot of hype, getting more out of control in auction versus Snake.
25:10I don't know if you feel that or think that's true.
25:14Yeah, it's really hard to predict. But you do see some of those auctions where, like, let's say a Burden is, like, the perfect.
25:22I mean, I know he just got hurt a little bit.
25:25But, like, he's exactly the type of player if you run into one where two guys just love Luther Burden.
25:32Maybe they're both Bears fans. I don't know. You see these, like, outrageous bidding wars where, like, you see, like, $35 for
25:39Luther Burden and you're just, like, WTF that puts him at, like, a second round pick.
25:44So, it's really hard to predict because it always takes two to do something like that.
25:49But, yeah, with these hype guys, it'll happen. Yeah.
25:52And it's certainly, like, you know, in homelings, there's going to be a lot of people that don't show up with their own auction numbers.
26:00How tied do you think they are? I don't know.
26:03You probably don't play much on the Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper type stuff.
26:07But how tied do you think they are to these suggested values that are on those sites like ESPN and Yahoo and Sleeper?
26:14I do think they're often tied just because, like, for a lot of players, that might be all they have to go off of.
26:22Unless they're, like, really into their home team or whatever.
26:25Like, I do think they are pretty tied to those, you know, expected auction values that ESPN has.
26:31Right. And it seems like a huge value add to, like, either have your own numbers or have ETRs auction values just
26:38so you're, like, tied to something that is not in the draft applet, you know?
26:43And, like, yeah, it should make a huge, huge difference.
26:46Okay. We mentioned players might go bloated at auction.
26:49What about players that might go underlooked maybe in the midrange or anywhere else?
26:54Any underlooked players at auction you think this year?
26:57Yeah. I think I annually like that whole tier of, like, $15 receivers.
27:01Like, I always just think, like, the Jamison Williams, Mike Evans, Adams, Parker Washington are a great tier.
27:07And in certain home leagues, I know you mentioned Parker Washington having some steam.
27:11Like, I still don't think certain home leagues have caught up to that.
27:15Further down the list, like, a couple guys who, like, I think, like, have the potential to be really valuable that everyone
27:22– that for different reasons, I think people are lower than they should be on.
27:27Like, DK Metcalf. Like, he could have had a thousand-yard season if not for the fan incident.
27:33And, yeah, gaining Pittman hurts, but losing Arthur Smith helps.
27:36So he's a guy who, like, I just don't hear any buzz on.
27:40Wouldn't expect to hear any buzz on. But, like, if he's falling for 5-6 at an auction, like, I feel really good
27:47about having them on my wide receiver core. And then, like, you guys have mentioned downs, and I still don't think the
27:54price has really caught up to where it should be.
27:57But, like, with everything breaking, like, totally perfectly so far.
28:01And, yeah, there's some Keenan Allen risk, but downs might be just so much better than Keenan Allen that maybe we shouldn't care.
28:08Yeah. That's what I said about Ladd McConkie last year, Chris.
28:11We shouldn't care about Keenan Allen, and that was an expensive mistake.
28:15Yeah, and I think last year I was cool on McConkie for the Keenan Allen reason, but I think we saw some
28:22decline from him that, like, I don't think we had quite a little more decline that I don't think we had quite
28:29seen with this previous year with the Bears. So I think it's more plausible that Keenan Allen goes there and just doesn't make an impact.
28:37One guy that came to my mind for undervalued in auction is just a guy who, if you pick him in snake,
28:45like, no one's even going to respond. They're not going to say nice pick.
28:49They're not going to say anything. It's David Montgomery, you know?
28:53And I don't even really love David Montgomery this year, but, gosh, I could see him going for way too cheap in
29:00an auction because he is, like, the least sexy pick you can make for a guy that probably is going to get 300 touches.
29:07Like, I don't really want David Montgomery in season long that badly at all, like, where he goes around, like, 50th overall.
29:14But an auction, if he went for something crazy cheap, I mean, let me see what we have.
29:20We have him for 20 bucks and half PPR.
29:23I could see him going for 15 or less.
29:26Any thoughts on that one? I was kind of expecting the same thing, but for whatever reason, I mean, I think people
29:33are interested enough in the team change that I am still seeing Montgomery go for 20.
29:38I think any time a player switches teams, there's just, like, a level of uncertainty that adds some intrigue.
29:44Like, I think that's the right idea. I think I'm kind of seeing it happen in practice more with, like, DeAndre Swift,
29:51where I am seeing him sometimes go in, like, 10 to 15 range.
29:56Sometimes, like, if you have enough people where, like, everyone just doesn't want to touch Josh Jacobs, like, he might go down to 15 too.
30:04But, yeah, I can definitely see it happen with Montgomery in some drafts, but I think the switching teams has helped his popularity just a little bit.
30:12Yeah. I like that DeAndre Swift one. Like, I take DeAndre Swift ahead of Dave Montgomery personally and Snake for now.
30:19So, yeah, I think that's an interesting one. Okay.
30:22Let's go to some miscellaneous topics here. We already talked about endgame strategy a little bit in terms of nominations.
30:28Anything else you want to say about endgame strategy for this year?
30:32No. I mean, the players, I do have the players I like.
30:36Like, I think Marshawn Lloyd, Jaden Blue, Tank Bigsby are great home league options.
30:41If you're in the high stakes world, like, you might have to dig deeper to, like, Ray Davis, Brian Robinson.
30:47But, like I said, it's definitely my strategy to focus solely on those contingent, like, one injury way upside guys.
30:53Yeah. Do you think Chris Rodriguez is going to go for, like, one or two dollars?
30:59Or do you think he's the type of guy where there's enough buzz around him that he'll go for more?
31:05Yeah. I've been seeing him go for three, four dollars.
31:08It wouldn't surprise me to see him go for a couple dollars.
31:12And he's another one where, you know, even if you want to, like, stack your running back bench with, like, the real
31:19high upside guys, like, the more exciting guys like Blue or Marshawn Lloyd.
31:23Like, Rodriguez can give you that floor even if he's in a split at, like, a very cheap cost that's going to
31:30insure you against, like, injuries to your backfield. So I like Rodriguez a lot.
31:35Do you think the handcuffs go for what they should?
31:38Like, the handcuff strategy is super interesting and I think super league dependent.
31:42Like, I really like Tank Bigsby as a guy to have on your bench all year this year because I'm so confident
31:49if Saquon got hurt, he would absolutely smash. I'm not nearly as convinced that Bryan Robinson or Isaiah Pacheco would smash if their starters went down.
31:58But yeah, how do you think handcuffing should or typically does go in auctions?
32:02I think, I mean, I think these guys go at the right price.
32:06It's just that tier where, like, you want to be the first person to nominate them.
32:12And I'm with you on Pacheco. Like, it's difficult to envision any world where an injury makes him, like, a stud all of a sudden.
32:20But with the Falcons, like, I do think they lack enough other players that, like, Bryan Robinson, any running back with a
32:27three-down rule is going to hit the RB2 ranks, like, just through volume.
32:31And I think he can do that. And so, no, I think, I do think that $1, $2 range should really be
32:38focused on those guys because if you're getting down to that wide receiver class, like, there's always going to be waiver wire guys.
32:45Those guys are super replaceable. They're not going to have upside.
32:49An injury doesn't give them more production in most cases.
32:52Yeah. Do you ever, like, try to build around cheap guys?
32:56In other words, like, there's a guy I know that I can get for $2, and that's part of my plan going in.
33:03Like, maybe you think you can get stribbling for $2, and that's a huge part of your plan because it allows you to access more.
33:11Do you ever go into a draft with actual targets to build your team around at the cheap range?
33:17Not that cheap because, like, you can feel, like, as good as you want to feel about stribbling.
33:23But, like, I don't think you should be that aggressive with your player takes that you know stribbling's going to be great.
33:30Like, we hope he is, and he's a great pick.
33:33But he sees a gamble, and anyone who says otherwise, like, I think is a little too confident.
33:39But I do go into drafts, like, where I might get confident.
33:43You know, I mentioned the example of, like, maybe getting Bijan and Gibbs on the same team.
33:48There are, like, $4 guys that, like, at the wide receiver position where I'm like, I can see starting Jacoby Myers.
33:55Like, he was on pace for $900 to $1,000 with the Jaguars last year.
34:00I can see starting Jalen Coker, like, once he was healthy.
34:03Like, it's not inconceivable that he could keep up with those six-round guys.
34:07So I wouldn't go down to, like, $2 guys.
34:10But, like, yeah, there are $4 guys I really like where their presence, like, gives me the confidence to bid higher on stars.
34:18Yeah. Do you think some of those wide receivers – you mentioned receivers that I think you can start also.
34:24So, like, also going in that range would be Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy, Jaden Reed sometimes, Steph Diggs.
34:30Like, do you think those guys are going to stick in that $4 range for the most part?
34:36Like, because if so, that seems like a great part of the plan.
34:40Yeah, I do. And, you know, outside of Worthy, who I just really struggle to ever envision trusting until he shows it again.
34:47Like, I think you absolutely nailed the type of players you can feel comfortable, like, starting.
34:52Like, there's enough volume. Like, Reed, Golden, those are great picks.
34:56So, yeah, you get the nail on the head there.
34:59Yeah. I mean, even, like, the Browns guys, you know, like Denzel Boston.
35:03I was in a draft last night. Somebody took Denzel Boston at, like, 120 overall.
35:08You know, I'm not going that far, but there's a lot of Denzel Boston hype right now.
35:14With Concepcion also on our list for cheap wide receivers to target, too.
35:18I like the Browns guys for, like, best ball.
35:21But, like, I'm still skeptical that we're ever going to see a Browns receiver this year that we can put in a
35:28lineup and, like, know they're going to get 40 yards.
35:31Yeah. Okay. I know you look at the ETR values.
35:34Are there any players on ETR in our auction values or rankings that you have differing opinion on versus our stuff?
35:41I always find it interesting when people push back on our rankings.
35:45Yeah, I don't. So, like, as a starting point, like, I think you guys do a great job with rankings, which always
35:52makes this question difficult because I do think you do a great job of filtering what matters and doesn't.
35:58But, like, there are subtle differences in kind of how I value players that have just made it so that I don't have any of them.
36:06And a couple of examples are probably Justin Jefferson where I'm pretty cool on him.
36:11Just, like, you know, a couple months ago I had a strong belief we were never going to see Nine play again.
36:18And great news that we have confirmation that Murray's starting.
36:21But, like, we build in all this risk with Trey McBride that, like, Carson Beck's going to be a starter later in the season.
36:29The fact that the Vikings haven't shot J.J. McCarthy to the moon, like, still makes me fear that he's going to be the quarterback late in the season.
36:38So, it's really hard for me, like, to absorb all that risk in, you know, a player who's being valued, like, in the 7 to 10 range.
36:47So, that's one example. I guess another is, like, I'm really high on Saquon, but, like, I just can't take him because
36:54I feel like in order to hit where he's ranked, he needs more checkdowns and he needs Jalen Hurts to do it.
37:01And there's a clear path for that because I think that's how he's effectively used.
37:06But I'm just always nervous projecting pass-catching volume from running QBs.
37:09And so, like, I honestly just feel safer about guys like Chase Brown or even A-chan.
37:14Interesting. Yeah. You know, I think in high-stakes stuff, A-chan might go for significantly cheaper than Saquon.
37:20Like, I can't find many people that I know who actually want to click on A-chan this year, you know, and so, including myself.
37:28But, you know, we'll see. Okay. Let's go to Superflex.
37:31We have to do Superflex because ETR CEO Taylor Kaby plays in a Superflex auction league, and so we're not allowed to
37:38do this show without talking about Superflex auction. I don't even know how much Superflex auction you play, if at all, Chris.
37:45But if you do or have any thoughts, what adjustments do you think people need to be making in auction for Superflex leagues?
37:52I don't play in as many Superflex, but dabble a little bit.
37:56And so, like, I think the most important thing for me when I'm doing those leagues is, you know, everyone knows you want two quarterbacks.
38:04But even more so than usual, like, soften your player takes on the top 20, top 21, and be in on every single one of those players.
38:13Because I want two of them. It's difficult to predict which quarterbacks are going to take off or not.
38:19And so that means I'm actively bidding on, like, almost every single one of them at, like, maybe 80%, 85% of their price.
38:26And I don't care which I get. Like I said, I just want two of them.
38:32The other thing I'm doing, I kind of mentioned this approach with the backfields of, like, you have these ambiguous situations where,
38:39like, you know, we had it with the Cowboys last year.
38:42You could get, just speaking about running backs, like, you could get Javante Williams and Jane Blue for $3 apiece.
38:49You didn't have to be right. You just had to start running back for $6.
38:53And I'm not saying these guys are going to be stars, but, like, the ability to corner the Raiders or the Falcons
39:00quarterbacks, get both of those guys for a few bucks.
39:04That makes, I'd much rather do that than pay, like, a Jalen Waddell price in a Superflex for Cam Ward or Bryce Young.
39:11And that's what I've seen them go for. I think that's really interesting.
39:15Obviously, you're managing this league, and so you know which quarterback to start at which point, Windows or Cousins, et cetera.
39:22Do you ever, how important do you think it is to get three quarterbacks?
39:27Because given that strategy, if one of your targets is, like, Raiders together for six bucks or something, maybe you could afford
39:34to have three quarterbacks or four quarterbacks on your roster.
39:37How important do you think that is? Yeah, in a 10-team, yeah, you can get three, and that's easy.
39:43But in, like, a 12-team, that is how I prefer to piece together that third quarterback.
39:48I want that insurance, but I'm looking at Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and hoping that I can get one of, like, a
39:55set of those guys for, like, six, seven bucks.
39:58And that's preventing me from spending enough money to lose out on, like, a Jalen Waddell, like I said, a Jalen Waddell quality player.
40:06Yeah, the Raiders idea is super interesting to me because, number one, I think Mendoza's actually going to be good.
40:12And number two, he has Clint Kubiak. And number three, he's undervalued, Mendoza is right now, because of this rhetoric that Cousins is going to start all year.
40:21I would be shocked if Cousins started all year.
40:24And so, you know, the price is down because of those three reasons on Mendoza, I think.
40:30Yeah, it feels like what any coach would say if they sign Kirk Cousins, I mean.
40:35It's all fun with Kirk Cousins on the first pick six.
40:38Okay. All right, let's get to some listener questions here.
40:41I have three of them. Appreciate everyone who sent in questions.
40:45A lot of them were topics that we already covered here.
40:48Hopefully, we covered yours. So, we'll do three here.
40:51First up, friend of the show, John Silas says, How much has your overall approach changed over the years as the landscape has evolved?
40:59Fantasy players becoming sharper. More resources available like ETR, etc.
41:02Strategies changing. So, yeah. Any notes on changing dynamics or changing strategy for you in auction over the years?
41:08Yeah, I would say for me, like, observe the same thing.
41:12People are better at this than they were 10 years ago.
41:15But it's still important to find areas where you can create your edges.
41:20And for me, the biggest thing has been become more adaptable in terms of roster construction.
41:25Like, 10 plus years ago, maybe before 2016, You could print money in these high-stakes leagues if you just spent all your money on four wide receivers.
41:33And the reason you could is because there was maybe one other person in your league doing it.
41:39Now, you get in the room with all these sharks.
41:42There's five or six guys trying to do the same thing.
41:46And like I said at the beginning of this, if everyone's doing the same thing, what's your advantage?
41:52So, I think it's really important to know when to pivot.
41:55And I'm not going into any auction thinking I have to have four wide receivers or I can't get three running backs.
42:02So, flexibility is important, more important than ever. The second is, I think one benefit of all this influx of information is
42:09we have so much groupthink when players rise and fall on draft boards.
42:14And, you know, everyone's saying the same thing on Twitter.
42:17And, like, one of the things I think your Marketplace Monday takes do a great job of is helping us, like, filter,
42:24like, what news matters and what doesn't. But I think that has allowed for some type of advantage when, I think, in
42:31recent years, we've seen some of these, like, you know, hype players, like I was talking about, just get steamed so much closer to the drafts.
42:39Yeah. Question two from Autism Warrior. He says, how does your strategy change with a 10-team league versus 12 or more?
42:46Are you more or are you more afraid or less afraid to overpay for your must-haves in smaller leagues?
42:52Yeah, we touched on this some already. You know, we have an article up on the site where you can read in
42:59detail how we think you should be attacking 10-team leagues and 14-team leagues in Snake.
43:04I assume some of the same strategies apply here to auction, Chris.
43:08But anything more for people in 10-team auction leagues?
43:11Yeah, most important thing is be uber aggressive on that top tier.
43:15Like I said, it's shallow enough that spend $70-something on Bijan and Gibbs.
43:19You can fill out the rest later. And so, like, overpaying for that top tier is absolutely something I'm not afraid of
43:26in a 10-team league versus, again, the broader your lineup requirements, like, the less you want to spend.
43:32And I don't think it's ever advisable to, like, view any players as, like, must-haves.
43:37But I get it. You know, in your home leagues, you might want your guy.
43:41But if we are maximizing EV, I think you've got to take the value as it comes.
43:47Yeah, and the other thing that I'd say about 10-team leagues, I mean, I'm way more likely to spend a lot on
43:54Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Brock Bowers, McBride, Loveland, because the waiver wire is just—you're going to find amazing running backs and wide
44:01receivers on the waiver wire in 10-team leagues. And so, but you're not going to find amazing tight ends and quarterbacks that
44:08can match Josh Allen or Brock Bowers. Last question here from Matt.
44:12I think historically I've done more harm than good trying to price enforce, especially when going stars and scrubs.
44:18I've been thinking about literally walking away from the screen for a period of time mid-draft.
44:23That sounds very drastic to me, Matt. But he wants to know if you have any thoughts on price enforcing and how
44:30to do this in a plus-EV way. Yeah, so don't place bids that you're not comfortable winning.
44:36Don't get me wrong. It's, like, definitely, like, a rush.
44:39It's, like, a poker bluff. But fantasy football is assessing risk versus reward.
44:43And this is just a poor bet because I'll see so many auctions where, like, the guy who bought Josh Allen, like,
44:50had to bid $7 on Jaden Daniels because he just can't see him go for $7.
44:55But the risk that guy's taking is that he's wasting $7.
44:59And the only benefit he's getting is some other player is going to spend more than $2, you know, $2 more than
45:06he should, maybe $4 more than he should. But that benefit doesn't even benefit just him.
45:11It benefits 11 people, but he's the person assuming all that risk.
45:15It just doesn't make sense from a risk-reward perspective.
45:18So, yeah, don't bid on anyone you're not comfortable winning.
45:21But also don't walk away mid-draft because I do think at other positions, you know, I like to be in on everyone.
45:28And I always want to be there just to bid 60%, 70% just in case an extreme value actually does pop up.
45:35And I feel like if you're not there to, you know, have the potential to get Kyron Williams for, like, $12 just
45:42because he's a boring player, like, it's probably not going to happen.
45:46But why cost yourself that chance? Yeah, and this is the other reason it's important to go into your auction with your
45:53own numbers because Chris is saying, you know, I can price in force on every running back and wide receiver probably by bidding 60%, right?
46:01And then, like, if I get him for 60% of my value, I'll probably be pretty happy about it.
46:07Even though if it wasn't my plan, I'll probably be pretty happy with it.
46:12Do you ever price in force up? Let's say you bid 60% and someone goes $2 more than you.
46:18Are you clicking back on that or what point do you stop the price enforcing if you don't want the guy?
46:25Yeah, it's a general matter. Like, I want almost everyone except for, like, a onesie position that I already have filled.
46:31So, totally agnostic to player when I'm coming in with my values, 60% to 70% on anyone, I'll take.
46:38Yeah. Sometimes I get into these clicking wars with people and I'm like, you know, this is still below my value, but
46:45I really, I just don't want, I like this guy.
46:48I don't want you, I don't really need this guy, but I don't want you to get this guy at a value.
46:55So, again, it's like these clicking wars, which, you know, I want to stop.
46:59Maybe I'll make it, like, 80% or something. I'll stop clicking it back to price enforce even on guys that I like, you know?
47:07Yeah, I find it hilarious when it gets personal.
47:10It's like 31 FU. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Why do auction if it's not going to get personal?
47:15It's great. Okay. Anything else you want to say here, Chris, about auctions before we get out of here?
47:22No. Most fun form, most fair form of fantasy football.
47:25Love it. Wish it was more popular and hope it becomes so.
47:29Yeah, you know, it's certainly more fair. You know, I mean, if you get the number eight pick this year, you are not getting Jamar Chase.
47:37Whereas in an auction, of course, you can get Jamar Chase and there's so many other different ways you can go.
47:44You have access to every player. I said at the top, it's the most pure form of fantasy football drafting.
47:50And I honestly think, like, I think it's the time commitment that people don't want.
47:55You know, like doing an auction for 150 players or 200 players or whatever it is, is like, it takes a really long time.
48:03I think that's partly held auction back from getting more popular.
48:06I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I always try to tell my kids, like, life isn't fair.
48:13But, like, I don't react that way when I draw the 12th pick in a fantasy.
48:18All right, Chris. I don't know if you want to be found.
48:22But if you do want to be found, tell the people where they can find you.
48:27Sure. And more. For Chris. For Brewster Ryan. Brewster Luke.
48:30I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.

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