0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1009 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:08And with drafting season nearly upon us, it is time to discuss the purest form of fantasy football drafting, the auction draft.
0:15For this, we are joined by old friend of the show, one of the sharpest auction players I've met.
0:21He's in the NFFC Hall of Fame. I can't believe there's an NFFC Hall of Fame, but there is and he's in it.
0:29Has insane results in auctions that has led him to third on the money list there.
0:34It is the one and only Chris Eibl from the high stakes streets.
0:38Chris, how's it going today? I'm doing great. Just like I said, just got back from a family vacation in Maine and
0:45gearing up for the usual trips to New York and Vegas for some high stakes auctions.
0:50Very exciting stuff. On today's show, we are going to discuss all things auction drafts 2026.
0:55Strategy adjustments, this year's auction landscape, best auction practices for this year, and lots more.
1:00I just also want to say huge thanks to Chris for doing this.
1:04He's playing big, but he still comes on here each year and tries to help out his fellow auction bros.
1:11So always appreciate the time and candor from Chris.
1:14Before we get into it here today, reminder that if you have a fantasy football draft coming up, we can help.
1:20Our NFL early bird bundle product is now live.
1:23That price is up for a limited time. It combines DraftKings Pro with our in-season product.
1:28DraftKings Pro, of course, includes all of our auction values, auction strategy, and cheap players to target.
1:34And then in-season, we will have Thorman's rankings and tons of other season-long content as well.
1:39So for more details on the early bird bundle or just DraftKip Pro, head to the subscribe tab on establishtherun.com.
1:45All right, Chris. I want to talk about the landscape first here in 2026 because I think we've seen some important changes.
1:53In snake drafts, the thirst for running back once we get past the first three wide receivers is absolutely out of control.
2:00In snake drafts, I'm expecting 12 of the first 20 picks this year to be running backs.
2:05What do you think that means for the auction streets this year?
2:09So I always want to pivot against trends, whether it's running back thirst or any other position.
2:14So doing the same thing as everyone else doesn't give you any type of edge.
2:19So if everyone else is panicking about running backs, that just means discounts at other positions.
2:24So I'm seeing really good opportunities to stack your wide receiver three spot this year with like Devonta Smith, Zay Flowers.
2:31And I've always been comfortable, especially in these standalone leagues where you're not trying to compete with a large field.
2:38Uh, rostering guys like Montgomery, Bucky Irving, Javante Williams, just guys who can get you by at that running back position.
2:44So yeah, the punchline is like, you don't win auctions by overpaying for the same position.
2:49Everyone else is changing. Yeah. Excuse me. Yeah. Do you think that these first running backs are, are bloated in price?
2:56Like, you know, I like a lot of these guys, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, James Cook.
3:01Um, I could put Chase Brown, I could poke some holes in H and and Martin Hampton, certainly, but I guess coming
3:08into my thought wasn't that they're overvalued necessarily. They're just expensive, but it sounds like maybe you think they're also overvalued.
3:15No, it's, it's not so much that they're overvalued.
3:18I've just always found it easier to construct a team wide receiver first, wide receiver first, because it allows you to use
3:25your waiver wire ability to pick up running backs as guys get hurt.
3:29So that's always just been an easier approach for me more so than anything's wrong with, with the guys you mentioned.
3:36Yep. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah.
3:39And that's like the auction specific strategy that I think is important to think through when you're playing auctions.
3:45You know, most auction players, most successful auction players employ a stars and scrub strategy.
3:50If you are passing on some of these expensive running backs and going for maybe undervalued stuff, Zay Flowers, Devonta Smith, you
3:57mentioned might be cheaper than they should, which I think is certainly, certainly possible as well.
4:02Are you still into stars and scrubs based on this year's landscape?
4:06Yeah. So no need to pivot from stars and scrubs this year, especially in those, those, uh, shallower formats.
4:12Yeah. I, one thing that I was thinking about stars and scrubs format is that I don't know if you feel this,
4:19but I feel like there's fewer good fantasy players and we can see this in the data too.
4:25Like scoring is down. Passing yardage is down. Um, plays per game is down.
4:29Um, and some of that I think is like kickoff rule stuff.
4:33I think some of that is also offensive coordinators responding to soft defenses by running the ball more.
4:39And so I think there's like been a macro change in NFL where it's harder for me to find round 16, 17,
4:4618, 19, 20 snake draft picks that I like.
4:49Does that flow through to auction where it's harder to find $1, $2 guys to complete out a stars and scrubs, uh, type of construction?
4:57I still think there are enough guy, like enough, like committee backfields for instance, where, you know, you don't have to necessarily
5:04know who's going to be best, but you can acquire the whole Washington backfield, the whole Carolina backfield.
5:10And still fill out those stars and scrubs lineups with, uh, with, with pretty good players.
5:15Um, some wide receivers get suppressed, uh, in the, in those formats, like the Colts and the green Bay guys that I
5:22think are, are people like, but we're still not seeing the prices catch up to that.
5:27So, um, I still think there are ways to fill out your, your roster with the stars and scrubs approach.
5:34You know, as I'm saying that it does kind of strike me that the stars are even better.
5:39In other words, like what we see is that wide receiver threes and wide receiver fours are getting worse.
5:46They're on the field. Last teams are throwing less often.
5:49And then you would get the wide receiver one and riders rear two competing more against tight ends and running backs for targets.
5:56They're going to win that battle. So like, yeah, the stars, I, yeah, it makes more sense.
6:02It makes more sense to me that there are, the stars are even better this year as it gets more condensed in
6:09terms of how teams are using their players. Um, oh, we always get the same question when we talk about stars and
6:16scrubs, Chris, they want to know what you mean by stars and scrubs.
6:20How much of your, how much of your budget is stars?
6:23Should they be having all stars and then like six, $1 guys or something like that?
6:29Or, or where do you draw the line on what's too much stars in a stars and scrubs construction?
6:35Yeah. So for this is going to be format specific, but if you're typical, like 12 team league, where maybe you're starting
6:42three receivers, um, you don't really want to go more than like 60% of your budget on those like top couple guys,
6:49because you don't want to leave both your wide receiver three and your flex spot uncovered.
6:54But where I start to get really aggressive is if there's two wide receiver formats or 10 team formats, I don't have a problem.
7:02Like you think of a typical 10 team league.
7:05If I get like Bijan and Gibbs for $75 a piece, like I can still get guys like Parker Washington and Devante
7:12Adams in that format just to fill out the roster.
7:15So definitely the shallower that, uh, roster is like that format is like the more you want to push up big prices on those, those top stars.
7:24Yeah. Okay. I mentioned that. I thought it was an interesting year or thinking it's an interesting year for stars to really separate from everyone else.
7:32Of course, stars are the hardest to acquire because even in casual leagues, you know, not high stakes or whatever there are,
7:39you know, everybody's going to want Jamar Chase, Gibbs, Puka, et cetera.
7:43How do you think about building around expensive guys?
7:46And are there any quote unquote unsexy guys near the top of the board that you think might get overlooked?
7:52Yeah, we we've talked before about how drafters are often timid early at the start of drafts.
7:58And I've always theorized that it's because there are probably multiple guys game planning around exactly the guys you mentioned, Bijan, Gibbs, Chase.
8:05And they kind of want to hoard that cash early because they've mapped out their whole draft around those guys.
8:11So I think that's the perfect time to nominate like the tier below a couple of my expensive favorites are Jonathan Taylor, JSN.
8:19And nominating those guys while Bijan, Gibbs and Chase are still on the board kind of forces everyone else to make a
8:26decision on them before before they're really ready, ready to.
8:29And, you know, Taylor in particular, we saw expanded past game usage still has running back one ceiling, but he's still viewed
8:36as somewhat as a or somewhat of a boring option by a lot of people.
8:41So the hope is by nominating them early, you're getting Taylor in the 30s or JSN at more of the Lamb Jefferson
8:48price than the Puka price when guys are holding on to those holding on to their wallets until those big four get nominated.
8:56Yeah, a couple of guys that came to mind for me as like top of the board might go overlooked.
9:02I don't know what you think. Drake London feels like people aren't that excited to like price enforce or run you up your price on.
9:10And also, I was gonna say Chase Brown, but I think he's gotten more steam lately.
9:15And then definitely Devon HN like I'm not on HN, but there's a lot of people like me that are also not on HN.
9:23So yeah, any thoughts on those guys going overlooked London HN or Chase Brown?
9:27Yeah, I see that second tier running through HN and Drake London.
9:31So I don't think player takes are super important.
9:34So like those guys exactly fit into the tier of the kind of guy where you nominate them early.
9:40People are gonna be like, I don't know what to do.
9:44I wanted to spend all this money on B.
9:47John and gets right. Yeah, it's a lot of sense.
9:50Okay. Anything stand out to you at quarterback this year?
9:53You know, for us, we have this huge tier of similarly projected quarterbacks from basically like Dak Prescott all the way to golf.
10:00And that tier includes a lot of guys that frankly, I like Jackson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Stafford, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Purdy, Mahomes.
10:09And I know I mentioned Dak and golf already.
10:11That kind of stands out to me that there's such a huge tier that we have projected similarly this year.
10:18Any thoughts on applying that to auction or any other quarterback thoughts?
10:22Yeah. And like interesting observation for me, like I don't base my values off of Vegas props, but like I was just
10:29looking at season leader passing props for fun. And four of the five favorites to lead the league in passing and passing
10:36touchdowns are like two $2 guys this year. You got Dak, golf, Stafford, Purdy.
10:40You've got rushing upside with Lawrence, who might be my favorite in that range.
10:45So, yeah, my instinct is to wait on this massive like middle tier of guys you mentioned and just take two of whoever is cheapest.
10:53It's not to say I won't bid on May or Burrow when there's like a discount to be had.
10:59Like by that, I mean when they drop to like a $7, $8 range.
11:03But, yeah, sign me up for that middle tier if I'm not getting a discount elsewhere.
11:09Yeah. So, like on our suggested values, like we have Josh Allen for 27, and this is out of a 200 budget.
11:16You know, Josh Allen, 27, Lamar, 18, Jaden, 15, Jalen Hurts, 13.
11:20Like in a vacuum, I think those are all good values.
11:23But if you tell me that I can get Trevor Lawrence for two, it seems really bad to spend 30 or whatever
11:30it takes to get Josh Allen, right? So, like I don't know.
11:34Like I don't know if people are going to be – I don't know if everybody thinks that or people are going
11:41to be like clicking the button on Josh Allen Lamar a lot.
11:45Yeah. So, like I think that I can get a little bit later and price enforcing also, which Chris just brought up.
11:52I did want to touch on the tight end landscape here.
11:56So, elite tight end is a controversial subject this year.
11:59There are people who think Brock Bowers is going to break the league and next year be a top five overall pick in Snake.
12:06And then there are people who think that taking Bowers, McBride, Loveland is too expensive given the tight end position.
12:13So, it's tough in auctions. Certainly, you still need a tight end.
12:17But what do you think about handling the elite tight ends, Bowers, McBride, and the Loveland steam, which I assume is coming?
12:24Yeah. I'm fine with like Bowers, McBride, Loveland at cost.
12:27And, you know, similar to that tier quarterbacks I just mentioned, I'll throw in bids of like 70% of what I think they're worth, 80%.
12:35And maybe I get lucky, maybe I don't. But they're maybe not targets of mine unless I'm in a shallower league, like
12:42a 10-team league or a home league where I can really build up my wide receiver and running back positions easier.
12:49And the reason there's just not maybe a target in maybe more difficult leagues is because, like, I know you're comfortable with the top eight this year.
12:58And when I look at that Fannin, Kraft, Pitts, or Laporta tier, it's the same thing as the quarterbacks.
13:04I don't know which of those guys is only going to go for $5 or $6.
13:09But because there are four of them, I know one of them will.
13:13And so, I think you're getting a fairly high floor and ceiling from all those guys that, like, in a tougher league, I'm sticking with that range.
13:22Absolutely. Yeah, and, like, Kraft, Laporta, Fannin, Pitts, I agree with you.
13:26Like, all four of them, I think, are similar-ish outlooks and bets.
13:29Like, I have personal preferences, but we certainly have them pretty close there.
13:34And then beyond that, like, even if you missed on that tier, which in auction, I don't think you really should.
13:40But even if you missed on that tier, I mean, you have George Kittle later.
13:45You have Don Kincaid later. I mean, there's some, like, legit options that are maybe going to be very, very cheap.
13:52Like, do you think you'd get Kincaid or Kittle for, like, $1 or two?
13:56Is that possible? Yeah. I haven't seen Kittle go for that cheap.
14:00I think there are enough people excited about Kittle in most auctions.
14:04But, yeah, you might like those guys. I might like Isaiah Likely just to see if he can cross that next tier.
14:11I think there's enough to make you feel like you're leaving a draft with some upside at that $2 range.
14:18Yeah. Okay. Let's go to roster construction. I wanted to ask about balanced builds.
14:22I know we talk so much about stars and scrubs on here.
14:26Are there any dynamics that would lead you to a balanced build this season?
14:30The only time I'm intentionally shooting for a balanced build is those deeper formats, like with a 14-teamer, where if you do
14:38go stars and scrubs, you might only be one injury away from, like, starting Justice Hill and hoping he catches a couple dump-off passes for five points.
14:46So, yeah, in 14-teamers, I might skew a little more towards, like, I'd rather have the collection of Mike Evans, Devontae Adams,
14:53and Parker Washington than, like, a single Justin Jefferson.
14:56But, in general, like, I think, you know, with myself, I think a lot of your listeners probably fit that waiver wire
15:03grinder mold where I feel like that shines best with the stars and scrubs approach.
15:08Right. And, yeah, if you're going to go stars and scrubs, like Chris is saying, you better be prepared to grind the wire.
15:15You know, like, we're going to help you as much as we can with the shows and the Q&As and our waiver
15:23wire list and everything else as part of the product.
15:26But, yeah, you've got to be in there to grind the waiver wire if you're going to go stars and scrubs.
15:33So, yeah, certainly be sure that you are up for that.
15:36Oh, we got a question from someone. I forgot to write in the name.
15:41He said, in more casual leagues, the stars will go for more than they should.
15:45What is our strategy if so? So, it's kind of like what we already talked about here where there's certain guys that are going to go.
15:54The stars are going to go for a lot.
15:57And what happens if you get in a room where everybody's trying to go stars and scrubs and even Jonathan Taylor and
16:04Drake London and Divine HN and all these guys are getting overbid based on your values?
16:09How do you respond then? Yeah, I think I still want to anchor my team to one star.
16:15So, maybe the first thing I'll say is, like, a lot of times I'll get questions where people say these stars are going for too much.
16:23Just make sure you're not in one of those shallower formats because, like, I don't think 70-something is too much for Bijan and Gibbs in a shallower format.
16:32But let's say they truly are going for too much.
16:35My preferred strategy is to zag then. And, like, well, I think it's appropriate to zag.
16:40Like, I think the mistake people make doing that is they wait until, like, the round four type guys to start buying.
16:47So, my preferred approach in that instance is maybe a one-star hybrid where, like, I'm playing a slight premium for that one star just because I have to.
16:56The market's making me. But as soon as the top tier clears out, if they're truly paying too much for those top
17:0324 players, like, I should be able to get the immediate next tier, like, Olave or George Pickens or something's wrong with my math.
17:11And so, like, I usually handle that with an inflation tracker in Excel, which sounds complicated, but it's really just actual winning bids against my projections going in.
17:20And if guys are going for too much, like, that discount should come in the next tier or two.
17:26Yeah. Well, the average, you know, budget that people have remaining is just going to keep going down, which obviously you should
17:33be tracking during your auction, too, how much money your opponents have left and how many spots that they need to fill.
17:40How much is an overpay, I guess? Like, let's say you have Josh Allen for 27 as your value.
17:47How bad is it to pay 30 for him?
17:49Or how bad is it to pay 32 for Josh Allen?
17:53How strict are you with your values going in?
17:56The only time I'm really wanting to overpay, like I said, is if it is for, like, one of those top 20 type talents.
18:04So, like, you'd never catch me unless it's, like, a super flex overpaying for Josh Allen.
18:09But if I am trying to overpay to get that star in my lineup, like, it can make sense to do 20%
18:16if I'm just trying to force, like, a single star in my lineup.
18:20Because, like I said, if you get left out until, like, the fourth round, then you risk having, like, guys you spent
18:27a lot on end up on your bench. And that's just of no use to you.
18:32Yep. Okay. You mentioned a little bit about nomination strategy already.
18:36General, more general nomination strategy. Should you be nominating guys you want or guys that you don't and then early, late, anything
18:43else on who to nominate when it is your turn to throw a guy out there?
18:48Yeah. Kind of expanding on what I mentioned about, like, Taylor and JSN, I always think it's easier to get guys when
18:55you're nominating just a single tier below, like, the current crop of players who's being nominated.
19:00So, like, that extends down the board where, like, if Kenneth Walker's the last, like, second round type running back left, that's
19:07the time to nominate Brees Hall or Javante Williams.
19:10The only thing I'll caution there is, like, don't go too far down your board because, like, if Jonathan Brooks is your sleeper, you're nominating him.
19:18Like, no one's going to view buying Jonathan Brooks as an impediment to buying Kenneth Walker.
19:24So, like, just stick to a tier below. Aside from that, the other nomination rule I go by is just to adjust on room, like, the room temperature.
19:33Basically, if guys are going for too cheap, you should be buying as much as possible, nominating guys you want at that
19:40moment before people realize they are going for too cheap.
19:43And conversely, if guys are going for too much, then that's when I want to throw out in that moment the guys I'm less interested in.
19:51Yeah. What about endgame nomination strategy? Like, you're down to six bucks, you have four spots to fill.
19:57There's certainly strategy in, like, bidding two when your opponents only have one dollar left on a guy that you want anything else for endgame nomination strategy.
20:06I would say second to knowing what your league has paid in the past for prices, like, the most important prep thing
20:13you need to do is set those one or two dollar guys, like, targets.
20:17Like, I know you recently had, like, a late round flyer article where you listed one injury away guys.
20:23Like, that's the type of thing I'm looking at and being, like, who am I targeting for one dollar or two dollars?
20:31Because my bench, I want that all to be about contingent upside.
20:34So, like, step one, get that list out. Be prepared of knowing who you're targeting.
20:39And then step two, like, look around the room.
20:42See who has money. If everyone has one dollar except for two teams have two dollars and one of those is the
20:49Saquon owner, like, don't nominate Tank Bigsby. Like, you know, you just wasted your nomination because that guy's hanging on to his two bucks.
20:57So, like, a little more advanced strategy would just be, like, to be really careful about, like, other teams' rosters needs who
21:04have more money than you and can kind of, like, lay down a hammer on you.
21:09Yeah, we have an article in the auction section of DraftKid where we're updating and continuously maintaining a list of our favorite one- and two-hour players.
21:17There's players we expect to go for one or two dollars.
21:21So, yeah, you can certainly take that to your draft and certainly bring some of your own there as well.
21:27Really important for the end. Okay. Let's talk about some of the trends going on this year in auctions.
21:34We mentioned the running back thirst. Is there anything else you've seen in terms of auction trends this year that is unique to this season?
21:42Yeah, nothing too crazy. Like, I think it is a little different to see guys like Gentry through Walker tier of running backs, like, above the A.J.
21:50Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins types. But I don't think that running back thirst is necessarily permeating to, like, the middle of the draft.
21:58So, in general, I don't know that there are any differences that are too substantial that auction players need to take into consideration just from the overall landscape.
22:07Okay. I don't know, like, if these auction- most of the auction opponents are, like, on Twitter and stuff, but there is some crazy steam going on.
22:16Like, players going up five, six rounds in ADP based on hype, etc.
22:20Are there any players you think are going to get bloated at auction this year?
22:25We already talked about some of the running backs at the top.
22:28But, gosh, I mean, you know, I log in now.
22:32I go to do a draft and I see Marshawn Lynch going in- Sorry.
22:36Marshawn Lloyd going in round 13. And Jaden Blue going in round 14.
22:40And Pat Bryant going in round 15. You know, these guys are, like, $1 players in auction.
22:46I understand that, but my point is that the steam on this can get really out of control.
22:52So, are there any players in the auction street specifically you think are going to get bloated this year?
22:58Yeah, I think it happens every year with, like, the preseason highlights and young ride receivers in particular.
23:04Like, I think the first time Jordan Tyson makes one of those, like, spectacular pirouette catches that, like, we've been seeing in highlight videos.
23:11Like, he's going to become a- It wouldn't shock me if he became, like, a $20 player at that point.
23:18Like, Carnell Tate, same thing. So, I think those are kind of the guys that are going to get steamed up as we get closer to the draft.
23:27You might have another class of players that have really high upside but are maybe being paid at that upside.
23:33Like, people are clamoring over Egbuka. I keep seeing him go higher and higher.
23:38Maybe the other two guys you hit on one of them, Marshawn Lloyd.
23:42Like, the second Marshawn Lloyd and Jonathan Brooks, like, pull off a preseason run where they look healthy.
23:48Like, I think we're going to see some real heavy steam.
23:51And I like their prices today, but I don't know that I'll like them tomorrow.
23:56Yeah, and I assume you're not chasing things like Tyson and Tate up the board, right?
24:01No, I definitely think it's best not to get caught up in the hype.
24:06Like, I think, like, as we see people rise and fall, I think it's important to analyze, like, whether what drove them
24:13to rise or fall, like, really matters or not.
24:16And I don't necessarily think, like, you know, preseason depth charts might, but preseason highlights don't really sway it for me.
24:22Do you get the sense that people are more anchored to their prices in auction?
24:27I'm sorry, more anchored to ADP and Snake than, like, prices in auction.
24:31In other words, like, I know people, including myself, like, before this Luther Burden injury really wanted to take him.
24:38But I still wasn't going to be like, oh, third round Luther Burden, no problem, because I'm more anchored to ADP.
24:44But in an auction, I could see myself being, getting, like, out of control.
24:49Like, hey, man, you're not taking Luther Burden. And for me, you know what I mean?
24:54And so, like, I guess my point is that I think the steam on guys like Burden or Parker Washington, or I
25:01don't know, maybe Parker Washington is a bad example.
25:04But the steam on guys who have a lot of hype, getting more out of control in auction versus Snake.
25:10I don't know if you feel that or think that's true.
25:14Yeah, it's really hard to predict. But you do see some of those auctions where, like, let's say a Burden is, like, the perfect.
25:22I mean, I know he just got hurt a little bit.
25:25But, like, he's exactly the type of player if you run into one where two guys just love Luther Burden.
25:32Maybe they're both Bears fans. I don't know. You see these, like, outrageous bidding wars where, like, you see, like, $35 for
25:39Luther Burden and you're just, like, WTF that puts him at, like, a second round pick.
25:44So, it's really hard to predict because it always takes two to do something like that.
25:49But, yeah, with these hype guys, it'll happen. Yeah.
25:52And it's certainly, like, you know, in homelings, there's going to be a lot of people that don't show up with their own auction numbers.
26:00How tied do you think they are? I don't know.
26:03You probably don't play much on the Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper type stuff.
26:07But how tied do you think they are to these suggested values that are on those sites like ESPN and Yahoo and Sleeper?
26:14I do think they're often tied just because, like, for a lot of players, that might be all they have to go off of.
26:22Unless they're, like, really into their home team or whatever.
26:25Like, I do think they are pretty tied to those, you know, expected auction values that ESPN has.
26:31Right. And it seems like a huge value add to, like, either have your own numbers or have ETRs auction values just
26:38so you're, like, tied to something that is not in the draft applet, you know?
26:43And, like, yeah, it should make a huge, huge difference.
26:46Okay. We mentioned players might go bloated at auction.
26:49What about players that might go underlooked maybe in the midrange or anywhere else?
26:54Any underlooked players at auction you think this year?
26:57Yeah. I think I annually like that whole tier of, like, $15 receivers.
27:01Like, I always just think, like, the Jamison Williams, Mike Evans, Adams, Parker Washington are a great tier.
27:07And in certain home leagues, I know you mentioned Parker Washington having some steam.
27:11Like, I still don't think certain home leagues have caught up to that.
27:15Further down the list, like, a couple guys who, like, I think, like, have the potential to be really valuable that everyone
27:22– that for different reasons, I think people are lower than they should be on.
27:27Like, DK Metcalf. Like, he could have had a thousand-yard season if not for the fan incident.
27:33And, yeah, gaining Pittman hurts, but losing Arthur Smith helps.
27:36So he's a guy who, like, I just don't hear any buzz on.
27:40Wouldn't expect to hear any buzz on. But, like, if he's falling for 5-6 at an auction, like, I feel really good
27:47about having them on my wide receiver core. And then, like, you guys have mentioned downs, and I still don't think the
27:54price has really caught up to where it should be.
27:57But, like, with everything breaking, like, totally perfectly so far.
28:01And, yeah, there's some Keenan Allen risk, but downs might be just so much better than Keenan Allen that maybe we shouldn't care.
28:08Yeah. That's what I said about Ladd McConkie last year, Chris.
28:11We shouldn't care about Keenan Allen, and that was an expensive mistake.
28:15Yeah, and I think last year I was cool on McConkie for the Keenan Allen reason, but I think we saw some
28:22decline from him that, like, I don't think we had quite a little more decline that I don't think we had quite
28:29seen with this previous year with the Bears. So I think it's more plausible that Keenan Allen goes there and just doesn't make an impact.
28:37One guy that came to my mind for undervalued in auction is just a guy who, if you pick him in snake,
28:45like, no one's even going to respond. They're not going to say nice pick.
28:49They're not going to say anything. It's David Montgomery, you know?
28:53And I don't even really love David Montgomery this year, but, gosh, I could see him going for way too cheap in
29:00an auction because he is, like, the least sexy pick you can make for a guy that probably is going to get 300 touches.
29:07Like, I don't really want David Montgomery in season long that badly at all, like, where he goes around, like, 50th overall.
29:14But an auction, if he went for something crazy cheap, I mean, let me see what we have.
29:20We have him for 20 bucks and half PPR.
29:23I could see him going for 15 or less.
29:26Any thoughts on that one? I was kind of expecting the same thing, but for whatever reason, I mean, I think people
29:33are interested enough in the team change that I am still seeing Montgomery go for 20.
29:38I think any time a player switches teams, there's just, like, a level of uncertainty that adds some intrigue.
29:44Like, I think that's the right idea. I think I'm kind of seeing it happen in practice more with, like, DeAndre Swift,
29:51where I am seeing him sometimes go in, like, 10 to 15 range.
29:56Sometimes, like, if you have enough people where, like, everyone just doesn't want to touch Josh Jacobs, like, he might go down to 15 too.
30:04But, yeah, I can definitely see it happen with Montgomery in some drafts, but I think the switching teams has helped his popularity just a little bit.
30:12Yeah. I like that DeAndre Swift one. Like, I take DeAndre Swift ahead of Dave Montgomery personally and Snake for now.
30:19So, yeah, I think that's an interesting one. Okay.
30:22Let's go to some miscellaneous topics here. We already talked about endgame strategy a little bit in terms of nominations.
30:28Anything else you want to say about endgame strategy for this year?
30:32No. I mean, the players, I do have the players I like.
30:36Like, I think Marshawn Lloyd, Jaden Blue, Tank Bigsby are great home league options.
30:41If you're in the high stakes world, like, you might have to dig deeper to, like, Ray Davis, Brian Robinson.
30:47But, like I said, it's definitely my strategy to focus solely on those contingent, like, one injury way upside guys.
30:53Yeah. Do you think Chris Rodriguez is going to go for, like, one or two dollars?
30:59Or do you think he's the type of guy where there's enough buzz around him that he'll go for more?
31:05Yeah. I've been seeing him go for three, four dollars.
31:08It wouldn't surprise me to see him go for a couple dollars.
31:12And he's another one where, you know, even if you want to, like, stack your running back bench with, like, the real
31:19high upside guys, like, the more exciting guys like Blue or Marshawn Lloyd.
31:23Like, Rodriguez can give you that floor even if he's in a split at, like, a very cheap cost that's going to
31:30insure you against, like, injuries to your backfield. So I like Rodriguez a lot.
31:35Do you think the handcuffs go for what they should?
31:38Like, the handcuff strategy is super interesting and I think super league dependent.
31:42Like, I really like Tank Bigsby as a guy to have on your bench all year this year because I'm so confident
31:49if Saquon got hurt, he would absolutely smash. I'm not nearly as convinced that Bryan Robinson or Isaiah Pacheco would smash if their starters went down.
31:58But yeah, how do you think handcuffing should or typically does go in auctions?
32:02I think, I mean, I think these guys go at the right price.
32:06It's just that tier where, like, you want to be the first person to nominate them.
32:12And I'm with you on Pacheco. Like, it's difficult to envision any world where an injury makes him, like, a stud all of a sudden.
32:20But with the Falcons, like, I do think they lack enough other players that, like, Bryan Robinson, any running back with a
32:27three-down rule is going to hit the RB2 ranks, like, just through volume.
32:31And I think he can do that. And so, no, I think, I do think that $1, $2 range should really be
32:38focused on those guys because if you're getting down to that wide receiver class, like, there's always going to be waiver wire guys.
32:45Those guys are super replaceable. They're not going to have upside.
32:49An injury doesn't give them more production in most cases.
32:52Yeah. Do you ever, like, try to build around cheap guys?
32:56In other words, like, there's a guy I know that I can get for $2, and that's part of my plan going in.
33:03Like, maybe you think you can get stribbling for $2, and that's a huge part of your plan because it allows you to access more.
33:11Do you ever go into a draft with actual targets to build your team around at the cheap range?
33:17Not that cheap because, like, you can feel, like, as good as you want to feel about stribbling.
33:23But, like, I don't think you should be that aggressive with your player takes that you know stribbling's going to be great.
33:30Like, we hope he is, and he's a great pick.
33:33But he sees a gamble, and anyone who says otherwise, like, I think is a little too confident.
33:39But I do go into drafts, like, where I might get confident.
33:43You know, I mentioned the example of, like, maybe getting Bijan and Gibbs on the same team.
33:48There are, like, $4 guys that, like, at the wide receiver position where I'm like, I can see starting Jacoby Myers.
33:55Like, he was on pace for $900 to $1,000 with the Jaguars last year.
34:00I can see starting Jalen Coker, like, once he was healthy.
34:03Like, it's not inconceivable that he could keep up with those six-round guys.
34:07So I wouldn't go down to, like, $2 guys.
34:10But, like, yeah, there are $4 guys I really like where their presence, like, gives me the confidence to bid higher on stars.
34:18Yeah. Do you think some of those wide receivers – you mentioned receivers that I think you can start also.
34:24So, like, also going in that range would be Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy, Jaden Reed sometimes, Steph Diggs.
34:30Like, do you think those guys are going to stick in that $4 range for the most part?
34:36Like, because if so, that seems like a great part of the plan.
34:40Yeah, I do. And, you know, outside of Worthy, who I just really struggle to ever envision trusting until he shows it again.
34:47Like, I think you absolutely nailed the type of players you can feel comfortable, like, starting.
34:52Like, there's enough volume. Like, Reed, Golden, those are great picks.
34:56So, yeah, you get the nail on the head there.
34:59Yeah. I mean, even, like, the Browns guys, you know, like Denzel Boston.
35:03I was in a draft last night. Somebody took Denzel Boston at, like, 120 overall.
35:08You know, I'm not going that far, but there's a lot of Denzel Boston hype right now.
35:14With Concepcion also on our list for cheap wide receivers to target, too.
35:18I like the Browns guys for, like, best ball.
35:21But, like, I'm still skeptical that we're ever going to see a Browns receiver this year that we can put in a
35:28lineup and, like, know they're going to get 40 yards.
35:31Yeah. Okay. I know you look at the ETR values.
35:34Are there any players on ETR in our auction values or rankings that you have differing opinion on versus our stuff?
35:41I always find it interesting when people push back on our rankings.
35:45Yeah, I don't. So, like, as a starting point, like, I think you guys do a great job with rankings, which always
35:52makes this question difficult because I do think you do a great job of filtering what matters and doesn't.
35:58But, like, there are subtle differences in kind of how I value players that have just made it so that I don't have any of them.
36:06And a couple of examples are probably Justin Jefferson where I'm pretty cool on him.
36:11Just, like, you know, a couple months ago I had a strong belief we were never going to see Nine play again.
36:18And great news that we have confirmation that Murray's starting.
36:21But, like, we build in all this risk with Trey McBride that, like, Carson Beck's going to be a starter later in the season.
36:29The fact that the Vikings haven't shot J.J. McCarthy to the moon, like, still makes me fear that he's going to be the quarterback late in the season.
36:38So, it's really hard for me, like, to absorb all that risk in, you know, a player who's being valued, like, in the 7 to 10 range.
36:47So, that's one example. I guess another is, like, I'm really high on Saquon, but, like, I just can't take him because
36:54I feel like in order to hit where he's ranked, he needs more checkdowns and he needs Jalen Hurts to do it.
37:01And there's a clear path for that because I think that's how he's effectively used.
37:06But I'm just always nervous projecting pass-catching volume from running QBs.
37:09And so, like, I honestly just feel safer about guys like Chase Brown or even A-chan.
37:14Interesting. Yeah. You know, I think in high-stakes stuff, A-chan might go for significantly cheaper than Saquon.
37:20Like, I can't find many people that I know who actually want to click on A-chan this year, you know, and so, including myself.
37:28But, you know, we'll see. Okay. Let's go to Superflex.
37:31We have to do Superflex because ETR CEO Taylor Kaby plays in a Superflex auction league, and so we're not allowed to
37:38do this show without talking about Superflex auction. I don't even know how much Superflex auction you play, if at all, Chris.
37:45But if you do or have any thoughts, what adjustments do you think people need to be making in auction for Superflex leagues?
37:52I don't play in as many Superflex, but dabble a little bit.
37:56And so, like, I think the most important thing for me when I'm doing those leagues is, you know, everyone knows you want two quarterbacks.
38:04But even more so than usual, like, soften your player takes on the top 20, top 21, and be in on every single one of those players.
38:13Because I want two of them. It's difficult to predict which quarterbacks are going to take off or not.
38:19And so that means I'm actively bidding on, like, almost every single one of them at, like, maybe 80%, 85% of their price.
38:26And I don't care which I get. Like I said, I just want two of them.
38:32The other thing I'm doing, I kind of mentioned this approach with the backfields of, like, you have these ambiguous situations where,
38:39like, you know, we had it with the Cowboys last year.
38:42You could get, just speaking about running backs, like, you could get Javante Williams and Jane Blue for $3 apiece.
38:49You didn't have to be right. You just had to start running back for $6.
38:53And I'm not saying these guys are going to be stars, but, like, the ability to corner the Raiders or the Falcons
39:00quarterbacks, get both of those guys for a few bucks.
39:04That makes, I'd much rather do that than pay, like, a Jalen Waddell price in a Superflex for Cam Ward or Bryce Young.
39:11And that's what I've seen them go for. I think that's really interesting.
39:15Obviously, you're managing this league, and so you know which quarterback to start at which point, Windows or Cousins, et cetera.
39:22Do you ever, how important do you think it is to get three quarterbacks?
39:27Because given that strategy, if one of your targets is, like, Raiders together for six bucks or something, maybe you could afford
39:34to have three quarterbacks or four quarterbacks on your roster.
39:37How important do you think that is? Yeah, in a 10-team, yeah, you can get three, and that's easy.
39:43But in, like, a 12-team, that is how I prefer to piece together that third quarterback.
39:48I want that insurance, but I'm looking at Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and hoping that I can get one of, like, a
39:55set of those guys for, like, six, seven bucks.
39:58And that's preventing me from spending enough money to lose out on, like, a Jalen Waddell, like I said, a Jalen Waddell quality player.
40:06Yeah, the Raiders idea is super interesting to me because, number one, I think Mendoza's actually going to be good.
40:12And number two, he has Clint Kubiak. And number three, he's undervalued, Mendoza is right now, because of this rhetoric that Cousins is going to start all year.
40:21I would be shocked if Cousins started all year.
40:24And so, you know, the price is down because of those three reasons on Mendoza, I think.
40:30Yeah, it feels like what any coach would say if they sign Kirk Cousins, I mean.
40:35It's all fun with Kirk Cousins on the first pick six.
40:38Okay. All right, let's get to some listener questions here.
40:41I have three of them. Appreciate everyone who sent in questions.
40:45A lot of them were topics that we already covered here.
40:48Hopefully, we covered yours. So, we'll do three here.
40:51First up, friend of the show, John Silas says, How much has your overall approach changed over the years as the landscape has evolved?
40:59Fantasy players becoming sharper. More resources available like ETR, etc.
41:02Strategies changing. So, yeah. Any notes on changing dynamics or changing strategy for you in auction over the years?
41:08Yeah, I would say for me, like, observe the same thing.
41:12People are better at this than they were 10 years ago.
41:15But it's still important to find areas where you can create your edges.
41:20And for me, the biggest thing has been become more adaptable in terms of roster construction.
41:25Like, 10 plus years ago, maybe before 2016, You could print money in these high-stakes leagues if you just spent all your money on four wide receivers.
41:33And the reason you could is because there was maybe one other person in your league doing it.
41:39Now, you get in the room with all these sharks.
41:42There's five or six guys trying to do the same thing.
41:46And like I said at the beginning of this, if everyone's doing the same thing, what's your advantage?
41:52So, I think it's really important to know when to pivot.
41:55And I'm not going into any auction thinking I have to have four wide receivers or I can't get three running backs.
42:02So, flexibility is important, more important than ever. The second is, I think one benefit of all this influx of information is
42:09we have so much groupthink when players rise and fall on draft boards.
42:14And, you know, everyone's saying the same thing on Twitter.
42:17And, like, one of the things I think your Marketplace Monday takes do a great job of is helping us, like, filter,
42:24like, what news matters and what doesn't. But I think that has allowed for some type of advantage when, I think, in
42:31recent years, we've seen some of these, like, you know, hype players, like I was talking about, just get steamed so much closer to the drafts.
42:39Yeah. Question two from Autism Warrior. He says, how does your strategy change with a 10-team league versus 12 or more?
42:46Are you more or are you more afraid or less afraid to overpay for your must-haves in smaller leagues?
42:52Yeah, we touched on this some already. You know, we have an article up on the site where you can read in
42:59detail how we think you should be attacking 10-team leagues and 14-team leagues in Snake.
43:04I assume some of the same strategies apply here to auction, Chris.
43:08But anything more for people in 10-team auction leagues?
43:11Yeah, most important thing is be uber aggressive on that top tier.
43:15Like I said, it's shallow enough that spend $70-something on Bijan and Gibbs.
43:19You can fill out the rest later. And so, like, overpaying for that top tier is absolutely something I'm not afraid of
43:26in a 10-team league versus, again, the broader your lineup requirements, like, the less you want to spend.
43:32And I don't think it's ever advisable to, like, view any players as, like, must-haves.
43:37But I get it. You know, in your home leagues, you might want your guy.
43:41But if we are maximizing EV, I think you've got to take the value as it comes.
43:47Yeah, and the other thing that I'd say about 10-team leagues, I mean, I'm way more likely to spend a lot on
43:54Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Brock Bowers, McBride, Loveland, because the waiver wire is just—you're going to find amazing running backs and wide
44:01receivers on the waiver wire in 10-team leagues. And so, but you're not going to find amazing tight ends and quarterbacks that
44:08can match Josh Allen or Brock Bowers. Last question here from Matt.
44:12I think historically I've done more harm than good trying to price enforce, especially when going stars and scrubs.
44:18I've been thinking about literally walking away from the screen for a period of time mid-draft.
44:23That sounds very drastic to me, Matt. But he wants to know if you have any thoughts on price enforcing and how
44:30to do this in a plus-EV way. Yeah, so don't place bids that you're not comfortable winning.
44:36Don't get me wrong. It's, like, definitely, like, a rush.
44:39It's, like, a poker bluff. But fantasy football is assessing risk versus reward.
44:43And this is just a poor bet because I'll see so many auctions where, like, the guy who bought Josh Allen, like,
44:50had to bid $7 on Jaden Daniels because he just can't see him go for $7.
44:55But the risk that guy's taking is that he's wasting $7.
44:59And the only benefit he's getting is some other player is going to spend more than $2, you know, $2 more than
45:06he should, maybe $4 more than he should. But that benefit doesn't even benefit just him.
45:11It benefits 11 people, but he's the person assuming all that risk.
45:15It just doesn't make sense from a risk-reward perspective.
45:18So, yeah, don't bid on anyone you're not comfortable winning.
45:21But also don't walk away mid-draft because I do think at other positions, you know, I like to be in on everyone.
45:28And I always want to be there just to bid 60%, 70% just in case an extreme value actually does pop up.
45:35And I feel like if you're not there to, you know, have the potential to get Kyron Williams for, like, $12 just
45:42because he's a boring player, like, it's probably not going to happen.
45:46But why cost yourself that chance? Yeah, and this is the other reason it's important to go into your auction with your
45:53own numbers because Chris is saying, you know, I can price in force on every running back and wide receiver probably by bidding 60%, right?
46:01And then, like, if I get him for 60% of my value, I'll probably be pretty happy about it.
46:07Even though if it wasn't my plan, I'll probably be pretty happy with it.
46:12Do you ever price in force up? Let's say you bid 60% and someone goes $2 more than you.
46:18Are you clicking back on that or what point do you stop the price enforcing if you don't want the guy?
46:25Yeah, it's a general matter. Like, I want almost everyone except for, like, a onesie position that I already have filled.
46:31So, totally agnostic to player when I'm coming in with my values, 60% to 70% on anyone, I'll take.
46:38Yeah. Sometimes I get into these clicking wars with people and I'm like, you know, this is still below my value, but
46:45I really, I just don't want, I like this guy.
46:48I don't want you, I don't really need this guy, but I don't want you to get this guy at a value.
46:55So, again, it's like these clicking wars, which, you know, I want to stop.
46:59Maybe I'll make it, like, 80% or something. I'll stop clicking it back to price enforce even on guys that I like, you know?
47:07Yeah, I find it hilarious when it gets personal.
47:10It's like 31 FU. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Why do auction if it's not going to get personal?
47:15It's great. Okay. Anything else you want to say here, Chris, about auctions before we get out of here?
47:22No. Most fun form, most fair form of fantasy football.
47:25Love it. Wish it was more popular and hope it becomes so.
47:29Yeah, you know, it's certainly more fair. You know, I mean, if you get the number eight pick this year, you are not getting Jamar Chase.
47:37Whereas in an auction, of course, you can get Jamar Chase and there's so many other different ways you can go.
47:44You have access to every player. I said at the top, it's the most pure form of fantasy football drafting.
47:50And I honestly think, like, I think it's the time commitment that people don't want.
47:55You know, like doing an auction for 150 players or 200 players or whatever it is, is like, it takes a really long time.
48:03I think that's partly held auction back from getting more popular.
48:06I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I always try to tell my kids, like, life isn't fair.
48:13But, like, I don't react that way when I draw the 12th pick in a fantasy.
48:18All right, Chris. I don't know if you want to be found.
48:22But if you do want to be found, tell the people where they can find you.
48:27Sure. And more. For Chris. For Brewster Ryan. Brewster Luke.
48:30I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.