Establish The Run

“To get him in the 30s now, with a chance to be 100% back half the season, that’s at least interesting to me.” @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva on Nabers avoiding PUP:

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

• Malik Nabers not expected to open camp on PUP • Alvin Kamara gets reconstructed deal • Alec Pierce not practicing @​adamlevitan and @​evansilva cover all the ranking updates from training camp news ⬇️

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers • Malik Nabers (+3.5) • Bhayshul Tuten (+3.2) • Chuba Hubbard (-3.1)

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers • Malik Nabers (+3.5) • Bhayshul Tuten (+3.2) • Chuba Hubbard (-3.1)

Market Monday & Episode 1,000! 🚨 @​adamlevitan discusses the moving price tags on: • Malik Nabers • Sam LaPorta • David Montgomery • And more ⬇️

Jonathan Brooks is the clear upside play over Chuba Hubbard in the Panthers backfield; as a capable receiver who must stay healthy, Brooks should get more fantasy-relevant touches than Hubbard despite similar volume splits. The Panthers' draft of deep-threat WR Jalen Coker signals a shift toward more passing, which favors Brooks. Novak prefers Brooks as a higher-upside dart throw in the late rounds, noting that if either back produces a zero, it doesn't matter much, so the higher ceiling is the better bet.

Chuba Hubbard's ADP is converging with Jonathan Brooks, but Novak (a Panthers fan) argues Hubbard is not a true pass-catcher despite catching many balls; he has 'bricks for hands' and was peppered with targets only because Bryce Young lacked other receiving options. Hubbard is a reliable, durable back who can handle 15 carries up the middle but offers limited ceiling and is essentially an average NFL running back.

Devante Adams led the NFL in red zone targets last year and likely repeats that role; even if Matthew Stafford regresses from 46 TDs to 35, Adams should secure at least 10 of those TDs, providing a safe TD floor. Novak sees Adams as a reliable red zone target who will likely return value at his Round 4–5 price, though acknowledges there are many other high-upside WR options at that stage and he is not 'enthralled' by the pick despite being above market on Adams.

Novak was an early enthusiast on Luther Burden, rostering him in nearly every league last year waiting for the breakout; now that consensus has caught up, he remains excited about Burden's dynasty value and the ascending Bears offense. Novak compares Burden's ball-in-hand ability to CD Lamb, noting his route-running ability to work intermediate parts of the field. However, Novak acknowledges the Round 4 price is steep given the depth of WR options at that stage.

Chris Rodriguez mentioned as a potential competing option in the Jaguars backfield alongside Javante Williams; uncertainty about who becomes the primary touchdown-getting back in an offense with good potential.

Novak hit with Javante Williams as a late-round value pick in his main league last year by targeting an offense with good potential but murky backfield clarity. Williams ended up with a 70% workload and touchdown upside, exemplifying the 'golden ticket' strategy of finding undervalued players in ascending offenses where role uncertainty creates draft-day value.

Andrew Novak loved Perriman out of college at Virginia Tech and was impressed by him at Jaguars fall camp last year. Novak attended the preseason camp through a sponsor connection (Dream Fighters Homes is a major Jaguars sponsor) and saw Perriman stand out among the players there. Going in round five this year, Novak considers him a potential hipster pick—a player with college pedigree and preseason camp performance that may be undervalued relative to his talent and opportunity.

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers • Jaylen Waddle (+4.0) • Malik Nabers (-2.0) • Travis Etienne (-2.2)

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers • Jaylen Waddle (+4.0) • Malik Nabers (-2.0) • Travis Etienne (-2.2)

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers • Jaylen Waddle (+4.0) • Malik Nabers (-2.0) • Travis Etienne (-2.2)

“I also just want to bet on Kyle Shanahan players.” @​adamlevitan on Ricky Pearsall’s moving price from this week’s Market Monday:

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers: • Jordan Mason (+3.9) • Deebo Samuel (+2.9)

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers: • Jordan Mason (+3.9) • Deebo Samuel (+2.9)

“What they did was, they added Kenneth Walker, which screams to me they’re gonna try to be more run-heavy.” @​LateRoundQB explains why Mahomes is a fade for him:

Matthew Stafford is going at 27 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is too close to dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts (9.1) and Bo Nix (23), suggesting he may be overvalued.

Jared Goff is going at 25 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is too close to dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts (9.1) and Bo Nix (23), suggesting he may be overvalued.

Bo Nix is going at 23 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is tight relative to pocket quarterbacks like Goff (25 overall) and Stafford (27 overall), suggesting he may be undervalued.

Jalen Hurts is going at 9.1 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is tight relative to pocket quarterbacks like Goff (25 overall) and Stafford (27 overall), suggesting he may be undervalued.

Jonathan Taylor is being passed on the board by Caleb Williams in superflex ADP, though position players are preferred in that range.

Christian McCaffrey is being passed on the board by Caleb Williams in superflex ADP, though position players are preferred in that range.

Bijan Robinson is part of a rare combination with Jameer Gibbs that makes taking a running back at 1.01 in superflex a viable alternative to Josh Allen.

Trevor Lawrence is grouped in a tier with Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott in superflex rankings.

Dak Prescott is grouped in a tier with Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence in superflex rankings.

Justin Herbert is grouped in a tier with Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence, with Herbert at the top of that tier in superflex rankings.

Jalen Hurts is ranked at quarterback seven and is preferred ahead of Caleb Williams in superflex rankings.

Caleb Williams is going ahead of position players like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and JSN in superflex ADP, though analysts prefer position players in that range.

Joe Burrow is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks (alongside Jaden Daniels and Drake May) and is ranked on his own tier in superflex rankings.

Patrick Mahomes is going too close in ADP to elite dual-threat quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels, Drake May, and Jalen Hurts, suggesting he may be overvalued relative to those players.

Jalen Hurts is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks with true top-three ceiling potential and should not be going as close to pocket-style quarterbacks in ADP.

Jaden Daniels is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks with true top-three ceiling potential and should not be going as close to pocket-style quarterbacks in ADP.

Jared Goff is a true statue quarterback becoming super rare, as almost all NFL quarterbacks now have baseline rushing ability.

Matthew Stafford is a true statue quarterback nearing the end of his career, representing a dying breed as almost all NFL quarterbacks now have baseline rushing ability.

Justin Herbert can run, representing the modern trend of NFL quarterbacks having baseline rushing ability.