PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Levitan’s Solo Pod: Week 1 Results, Sad Underdog News, Listener Questions (Episode 1021)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
34 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 14, 2026
Published
Mon, September 14, 2026
9
Player insights
9
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian WatsonColston LovelandDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryJahmyr GibbsJalen CokerJonathan TaylorLamar JacksonMichael Mayer
Player analysis
Player insights
Christian Watson
PositiveValue0:59
Christian Watson performed well in Week 1, justifying his status as a recommended round six draft pick.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveUsage13:57
Colston Loveland saw good usage in Week 1, and Levitan remains comfortable with his role in tournament lineups.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeUsage7:09
Levitan avoided Devon Achane in DFS cash games due to an 'insanely wide outcome' range, lack of surrounding talent, concerns about quarterback check-downs, and poor team touchdown potential.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveProjection0:30
Derrick Henry led all fantasy players in points in Week 1 and remains a strong play, as evidenced by his success in DFS tournaments and his high simulation performance.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveUsage5:08
Levitan considers Jahmyr Gibbs a 'lock of all locks' for DFS cash games due to his role, spot, projection, and structure, despite being only 77.3% owned in a major double-up contest.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveProjection0:51
Jalen Coker led all wide receivers in scoring in Week 1, validating the ETR team's aggressive drafting stance throughout the offseason.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveUsage9:13
Jonathan Taylor was the preferred DFS cash play because he was expected to handle 90%+ of team touches, possessed elite talent, and benefited from a home matchup with a strong offensive line.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection15:17
Levitan targeted Lamar Jackson in tournaments, betting that his reduced rushing production last year was injury-related rather than a permanent decline.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveValue5:42
Michael Mayer was an 'absolute stone-cold lock' for DFS cash games at a $2,900 price point on DraftKings.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1021 of the official EstablishTheRun.com Podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and we're coming off of a running backs
0:12continue to own the NFL kind of week. Yes, that's right.
0:16Week 1 was a familiar story for running backs.
0:19One story that we've seen play out over the last two years repeatedly.
0:24If you played the running back position in the NFL in Week 1, you likely went off.
0:30Derrick Henry led all fantasy players in points Week 1.
0:34Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Gentry, DeAndre Swift, Bijan Robinson, Dave Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Javante Williams, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving.
0:40They all went over 20 PPR fantasy points as well in Week 1.
0:45And yeah, certainly wide receivers did well too. But it's just easier to find those guys down board.
0:51Jalen Coker led all wide receivers in scoring. You know, we were one to two rounds ahead on him all offseason.
0:59Shout out to us. Christian Watson was not far behind.
1:02He was a great round six pick or so that we talked about a ton.
1:08But my point is, if you listen to episode 1019, the how to beat DFS tournaments in 2026 episode, one of the
1:16things that we found in the data over the last couple of years was that the field has not been playing running
1:24back in the flex enough on draft games. You know, so yeah, more on that in a little when I get to tournaments.
1:32The other note that I wanted to make on the running back stuff was about injuries.
1:38Running backs have stayed healthier than wide receivers the last couple of years.
1:43So far this year, the big preseason injuries have been Brock Bowers, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Tyson, Jaden Higgins.
1:49You know, three wide receivers and a tight end.
1:52And then in Week 1, we lost Kyler Murray, Ladd McConkie.
1:56Zay Flowers left early, should be fine though. AJ Brown.
2:00De'Jong Shribbling. Sam Darnold. Meanwhile, all of these injuries at other positions, no running back injuries of note.
2:06And so if these things are going to continue at the macro level, defenses playing light, defenses petrified of giving up explosives
2:14in the past game, defenses playing deep safeties. If that stuff is sticky, and I tend to generally think that it will
2:22be, if that's sticky and running backs continue to sustain health at the rate they had the last couple of years, you
2:30know, running backs are going to rule fantasy again.
2:33As for DFS cash this week, when I say cash, by the way, for anyone new, I just mean head-to-head, 50-50, any
2:41contest where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out and doubles their money.
2:46So as for DFS cash in Week 1, I really only played DraftKings due to the unfortunate site issues that Fandle was experiencing on Sunday morning.
2:56Um, I'll talk about some of the decisions that I made in DraftKings cash, but before I do that, I just want
3:04to reiterate that the cash games on DraftKings are not dead.
3:08I mean, Jameer Gibbs, to me, was the lock of all locks in cash for so many reasons, you know, role, spot, projection, structure, just so obvious.
3:17I opened up the massive $25 double up on DraftKings, and Jameer Gibbs was only 77.3% owned.
3:24I was just shocked. 22.7% of people in there decided not to play Jameer Gibbs.
3:29They decided to torch their money. You know, even if they played Derrick Henry or DeAndre Swift or whatever, and they still
3:37won, trust me, 22.7% of people did not play Jameer Gibbs in cash.
3:42They torched it. Michael Mayer was $2,900 on DraftKings, another absolute stone-cold lock.
3:46He was only 72.5% owned in the massive $25 double up.
3:50Amon-Ra St. Brown was only 36%. So yeah, I understand that it was week one, and early season is when cash is
3:58softest, but I was encouraged by what I saw for sure.
4:02I don't want to spend too much time on cash.
4:06You know, the biggest decision was the one we spent a lot of time on on Friday night, established the show, Sunday morning, last-minute live stream.
4:15The biggest decision to me was who to play at running back two in DraftKings cash.
4:21I think this was a really good example of how ceiling is notable and important in cash, but not the most important thing.
4:29Devon Achan projected pretty well for his price, but as we talked about relentlessly all week, it's just an insanely wide outcome spot.
4:38You know, he's playing with zero talent around him is Achan.
4:42We doubt the quarterback will check down. The team's not going to score very many touchdowns.
4:47The coach is a mess. I was just never playing Achan in cash.
4:52I did play him some in tournaments, but I was just never playing Achan in cash.
4:58I thought Amarin Hampton was fine and definitely playable in cash.
5:02I did have him on FanDuel on the dummy team I was going to play in FanDuel cash, but we also didn't
5:10know how much Keaton Mitchell would play or how much Kamani Vidal would play.
5:15We also don't know for sure that Hampton is even a stud NFL running back, and he was priced on DraftKings at
5:23least really close to some studs that I'll get to.
5:26Um, Ashton Gentry was another incredible tournament play. I thought we talked about that on the shows Friday and Sunday too, but
5:34for cash coming off the ankle, Mike Washington stuff, not really an option for cash, I didn't think.
5:41Um, Derek Henry, you're not sure how it goes if they fall behind.
5:46Bijan Robinson dealing with horrific quarterback play. So anyways, the guy who I thought would handle 90% plus of the team's running
5:53back touches in any situation is a freak talent, can hit a home run, was at home with a great offensive line.
6:01It was Jonathan Taylor and that worked out well.
6:05But, um, if you're curious about my results from week one cash, uh, all the other decisions that I made, you can head to the site, establishtherun.com.
6:14Cash line of review is always free on there.
6:18Um, it's crazy. As I was writing that last night, I was thinking to myself, this is 11 years every week I've
6:26written the cash lineup review going over my team for 11 years straight.
6:30Every slate. Um, even as the haters and losers of cash, of which there are many, tell me it's a waste.
6:38I still do it. I still like it. I don't know why.
6:42All right. Uh, DFS tournaments from week one. I was mostly focused on the $250 buy-in on FanDuel.
6:49Thankfully got my teams in there before the site issues, put four teams in there.
6:54Cash three. Didn't get any real sweats though. Two of my big takes for tournaments, you know, both did well.
7:01I mean, number one, Jaguar is going to score a lot of points.
7:06Brian Thomas can be shadowed by Denzel Ward. Jacoby Myers off the hand thing.
7:11So Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington skinny. And then my other big take was just a perfect spot to play Ashton Gentry at $7,000 on FanDuel.
7:20Um, if you made a case that the ankle injury was fine and the Mike Washington hype was overblown, two very reasonable assumptions, by the way.
7:30Ashton Gentry at 7K at home against the worst team in the NFL with actual quarterback playing Kirk Cousins.
7:37Like, you know, that was a really great play.
7:40So I was happy about that. You know, my best team, I did play the Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, skinny, had Gentry.
7:48Also got on Derrick Henry at just 9% owned in this contest on FanDuel.
7:53Shout out to Leonie for the Saturday established the million flag plan on that one.
7:58Leonie also won the Thunderdome for $50,000 on DraftKings this week with Derrick Henry.
8:03Big dog was just simming incredibly well. So, yeah, you know, Trevor Lawrence, P-Wash, Gentry, Gibbs, of course, Derrick Henry.
8:11That was close to what I needed to win this tournament, you know, for the first five.
8:17But I was pissed at myself. I played a 37% owned Titans defense on FanDuel.
8:22Just so bad. There's so many other defenses to choose from.
8:26The scoring is so volatile. I preferred the Jets anyway, and they were less owned.
8:32I'd rather eat chalk at like an expensive defense than these cheap thin ones.
8:37In tournaments, at least. Oh, and then I also played Colston Loveland on this team, which the usage for Colston Loveland was fine.
8:45It was actually really good. I'm fine with that.
8:48But the mini that I played with it was Ted Rory McMillan rather than Coker.
8:54I mean, results aside, obviously Coker went off. The results aside, though, just getting salary and ownership discount with Coker may have
9:02been right, considering Coker had out-targeted, outplayed Ted Rory for the final seven games of last year anyways.
9:08So, yeah. Oh, I want to talk about one other team quickly.
9:12The one that I was most excited about, I love this team.
9:17I played a Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers skinny stack with Tyler Warren bring back from that game.
9:23I just thought that made a ton, ton, ton of sense.
9:27Like, Lamar was going to be under-owned if you were willing to say the reason he did not run as much last year was due to injury.
9:37I was willing to say that. So, anyways, Lamar, Zay skinny, Tyler Warren bring back from that game, you know, just trying
9:45to beat Michael Mayer badly with Tyler Warren. Tried to do the same thing with Loveland.
9:50Chuba and Luther Burden mini stack from that game at really low ownership I liked.
9:56Gibbs and Vele mini from that game I really liked.
9:59And then Barkley-Eagles D correlation I really liked. You know, Barkley-Eagles D burden.
10:04Tyler Warren didn't do enough, but really liked that team.
10:08But big thing for anyone, you know, playing on FanDuel, or trying to play on FanDuel at least through the site issues,
10:16our projected ownership this year is just so much better, flows through to the Sims, which is a huge, huge help.
10:23For anyone interested in DFS optimizers or Sims, solver is what you need.
10:28Head to the bottom of the NFL menu for more on that.
10:32Today's show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets, and one that is now available in every U.S.
10:41state. Long-time listeners of this show know that I care most about getting the best price.
10:47I'm not just talking about players ADP and fantasy.
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10:57And that's why I've been so interested in Polymarket.
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11:17Even if you're interested in player props or some of the smaller markets like I am, you will not get the dreaded max is 26 cents screen.
11:27Right now, Poly is offering new users a $50 bonus if you deposit $10 with promo code ETR.
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11:40All right. One more topic here before I get to listen to your questions.
11:45It is the underdog situation. A bunch of people asked for my take on the underdog stuff that broke last week.
11:53For those who are not terminally online, the cliffs on this are basically underdogs sold for $1.3 billion, billion with a B,
12:01a couple months ago to IG Group, which is a United Kingdom-based trading and fintech company.
12:06You know, going back through underdogs history, you know, they were trying to be a sports book.
12:13That never really got off the ground. The forced parlay stuff was extremely profitable for them.
12:18The last six to nine months, they've been all in on prediction markets, obviously.
12:23So anyways, fast forward to last week, the consequences of that being of the sale and being all in on prediction markets.
12:31Well, the consequences, I mean, frankly, they suck, you know, for us.
12:36There's no way to really sugarcoat it. Underdog announced that they are no longer offering best ball or snake draft style games
12:44in a bunch of states, including Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, etc.
12:48So Jeremy, underdog CEO, he makes the announcement on Twitter.
12:52It's just a huge shitstorm. I mean, people are understandably pissed, disappointed, upset, tilted.
12:57It's just a nuanced thing. The one thing I want to be clear about that I hope everyone now understands, people like
13:05me, people like you listening to this, people like us, we are not very valuable to operators.
13:11We are grinders. We're trying to get it in good.
13:14We like playing peer-to-peer games. We are not the people that operators actually make a lot of money from.
13:21If you know someone who plays online blackjack or someone who bets parlays every night for fun or someone who goes to
13:29the casino and plays slots, those are valuable customers to operators.
13:33As for us, you know, the grinders, well, we pay some rake and that's great, but it's just not very much.
13:41Let's say you played $10,000 on underdog best ball last year.
13:45I would guess, I have no idea. I'm guessing only 1% to 2% of people play 10K plus in underdog best ball each year.
13:53But even if you did play 10K, you only paid around $900 in rake.
13:58I mean, that is not a home run business.
14:02That's not even a ground rule double business. Hosting best ball games is not a good business, period.
14:08Now, it can become a good business if you're able to scale these people into playing other games.
14:15Can you get them to bet on your sports book?
14:18Can you get them to play the, you know, forced parlay nonsense?
14:23Can you get them to rip packs? I don't know, whatever these games are.
14:28I don't know. But I don't know about you guys.
14:31I literally never played those things. Never even crossed my mind to do anything else on underdog other than draft.
14:38I literally never touched those other products. And I'm sure most of you did not either.
14:44You know, this is not this. This is the same deal as sports books at ETR.
14:50We don't get advertising deals with sports books because we are not the target audience for them.
14:56Our audience is actually trying to win. And I know in theory, everyone's trying to win.
15:02I mean, actually grinding your cock to 3.9 inches to try to win.
15:07I remember a long time ago when PrizePix was first getting big.
15:11They did a, you know, marketing deal with us.
15:14They ran a promo where they wouldn't move a line that we wanted to bet.
15:20And our guys beat them for seven figures. We never got to deal with PrizePix again.
15:25So my point is, we are just not valuable to operators.
15:29Now, if the operator is a prediction market, it is a little bit different.
15:34Grinders, people like us, we can be very valuable because we create liquidity in sports markets and the prediction markets need that to operate.
15:43You can go back to my last solo pod for more on why.
15:48But yeah, you know, definitely go back to last solo pod if you want to hear more about prediction markets.
15:55All right. Now that's out of the way, you know, now that we understand where we stand, the grinders stand in this
16:03whole ecosystem, the second part of the underdog story, or at least recent news, and the most important part of it to me, is just simple business goals.
16:13I have learned so much about business since we started ETR in 2019.
16:18I think there's two very clear paths for a business to take.
16:22Like, the first kind of business, I would call it a lifestyle business.
16:27You don't raise money. You don't take on professional investors.
16:30You have no intention of selling. You run the business to make money, of course, but you do not run the business
16:38with the intention of scaling it to get sold.
16:42And that's how I would describe ETR to some degree.
16:45Now, believe me, we are doing everything in our power to make as much money as we possibly can.
16:52And I have news for you guys, you know, breaking news.
16:56If someone offers us $1.3 billion for ETR, we are saying yes, period.
17:01But we don't answer to professional investors. We don't optimize for a sale.
17:05We optimize for the health of the business, for staying ahead of the market, for executing on products that we believe in,
17:13for taking care of people that we work with in the fairest way possible.
17:18So, that's just like one type of business, lifestyle business.
17:22The other option, the more intense option, the more, I don't know.
17:26I don't even know how to describe it, but I would call it a growth business.
17:32You immediately start raising money before you even have a product.
17:36Then you raise another round. Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D.
17:41Maybe shareholders keep getting diluted, but hopefully your valuation is going up and hopefully you have a massive exit.
17:48You know, that's a growth business. I don't think either of these paths for a business are right or wrong.
17:55Like, it's way more nuanced than that. And I probably didn't say clearly enough there that like both can be great businesses.
18:03Both can be great for people that you work with.
18:06Both can be great in so many different ways.
18:10But from a goal perspective, Underdog's goal was to hit a home run.
18:14We at ETR, yeah, we don't deal with a lot of the stuff that growth businesses deal with, but we also never had a billion dollar valuation.
18:24You know, we try to hit singles, maybe an occasional double.
18:28So, if Underdog's goal was to hit a home run, everybody knew.
18:32This is obvious. Jeremy came on my podcast like five years ago and said, best ball is a straight up bad business.
18:40It is not a good business. It's not even close to a home run.
18:45And they're trying to hit a home run. If you did not see that Underdog was spending a ton of money to
18:53acquire best ball customers, to upsell them to products which make more money, I'm not really sure what to tell you.
19:01Now, I do understand the sentiment around the news.
19:04You know, we, us, the grinders, we put Underdog on the map.
19:09And after we put them on the map, they went on to create games that actually made them an insane amount of money.
19:17You know, not a few hundred bucks here, a couple hundred thousand here, or a million here on best ball.
19:24Like, insane amount of money. Things like the pick'em, force parlay thing.
19:28And now it got to a point where they had to take best ball away from some of the people in some
19:36states that put them on the map. So, I get that sentiment.
19:41I get it. I really do. It sucks. It sucks bad.
19:45I guess I just don't agree that we were owed.
19:48They owed us to keep running the games forever.
19:51Like, we didn't pay them money going forward. We paid the rake in the games.
19:57And now if there's no games, if you're in a state with no games, then you don't pay them.
20:04Someone else will step up. You know, the best ball games aren't dead.
20:08Draft Kings, drafters, I'm sure more sites will pop up.
20:12Like, it's a great thing. I think best ball is a great product for Draft Kings because as I am on Draft
20:20Kings checking my best ball teams, I'm firing at DFS, et cetera.
20:24But yeah, Draft Kings, drafters, I'm sure more sites will pop up.
20:29And Underdog is still running, just not in those nine states where they had to pull it.
20:35All this, though, is just another reminder to me of why I get worried when people are into, quote-unquote, community around gambling.
20:43I remember during the Top Shot and NFT craze, I went on this podcast, I went on an Overzet show, other shows,
20:51and I just went fucking nuts about how dumb community is when we're playing for real money.
20:57Like, oh, Adam, you don't understand, you don't understand.
21:00The Hairy Horses NFT project has a great community.
21:03You know, you should buy it. Shut the fuck up.
21:07There is no community when I'm gambling against my peers.
21:11You know, I'm going to try to tear your eyes out.
21:15Man, I should really repost that rant. This was at like the peak of the NFT boom.
21:21I had like three different rants about this stuff.
21:24It was great times. I should look for those.
21:27But anyways, I could keep talking about this underdog stuff for hours.
21:32I'll say three more things as fast as I can.
21:35First, if Jeremy had just come out and said, look, guys, we're running a business.
21:41If we had kept best ball in those nine states, it would have cost us $50 million, $100 million.
21:47You know, would that have been better? Would that have changed the reaction?
21:52I don't know. It doesn't actually change anything. But, you know, I don't think that anyone in his shoes would or should have done anything different decision-wise.
22:02Like, all the people complaining about this, would you turn down $1.3 billion for something that you built?
22:08Well, second, I want to say I'm really happy for everyone who invested in underdog.
22:14For transparency, I was given a chance to invest in the seed round of underdog along with some other ETR guys.
22:21We all decided to pass on that chance because we did not want people to think that we were biased towards one operator.
22:30Turned out to be, didn't matter. Nobody gives a shit.
22:33You know, crime is legal. Doesn't matter. We're biased towards one operator.
22:38Wouldn't have mattered. Turned out to be easily the biggest financial mistake of my life by a huge margin.
22:44You know, someone asked me if underdog selling from $1.3 billion was worse than having thyroid cancer.
22:51And believe me, like, it's not even close. Underdog thing is way worse.
22:55But, you know, all jokes aside, seriously, so many people in the fantasy community got a huge score thanks to underdog sale and certainly happy for them.
23:05Last thing I want to say about this. The biggest reason I think we should be sad about the underdog thing is
23:13not community or they rugged us or whatever, you know.
23:17I don't really feel any of that. The main reason that I'm sad about it is just competition.
23:23I know I am a broken record on this, but competition is always going to be good for the consumer.
23:30You know, DraftKings Best Ball is a legit awesome product.
23:34I'm not sure they even would have launched that or put effort into it if underdog didn't exist.
23:40So yeah, no underdog. And by the way, underdog is not dead.
23:45It's just these states. But no underdog would be bad for the ecosystem generally.
23:50I'm hopeful slash optimistic that between DraftKings, drafters, some new entrants, it's going to be fine.
23:56Oh yeah, and by the way, I should mention, you know, there's still good action on underdog.
24:02They're running their battle royales, the weekly snake drafts.
24:05They're still running with good prizes just without those states.
24:09We've actually put a lot of work into our rankings and ownership and data for battle royales.
24:15In-season subs can check that out in the NFL menu.
24:18All right. Enough is enough. It is time for everyone's favorite portion of the program, the listener questions.
24:25Bruce and Luke, hit the theme music. All right.
24:28Thanks to everyone for the questions. Going to do four today.
24:32If I don't get to yours, stay tuned. It's possible I get to it on a future solo pod.
24:39Question one comes from Penny Heist says, if you drop soap on the floor, is the floor clean or is the soap dirty?
24:47Great question. Great question. It's so crazy. Penny Heist.
24:50The things you remember away from when you were a kid.
24:54I have a very, very clear memory of traveling with my dad when I was young.
25:00I mean, I was probably 10 years old or so.
25:04We're traveling. We get to a hotel. He goes in the shower.
25:08I go in the shower next. I go to grab the bar of soap and there is a pube on the bar of soap.
25:17Obviously, I didn't use that. I just lathered with shampoo.
25:20I get out of the shower. I start arguing with my dad about it.
25:25He's using the argument that by definition, soap is clean.
25:29And therefore, any pubes on said soap are clean and don't matter.
25:33You are just never going to convince me that someone can rub anything, anything all over their cock, hand it to me,
25:41and then claim that there's no remnants. You can't convince me that it's clean, even soap.
25:47So I am a bar soap guy. You know, the hard stuff.
25:51No body wash loofah nonsense for me. But I do not share my bar soap ever.
25:57Hope that helps. Penny Heist. Question two from Dylan.
26:00He says, Can you touch on changes, if any, to your thoughts on contest selection in general this year?
26:07Obviously, it depends on individuals' goals. I'm considering more satellites and qualifiers this year.
26:12Curious about any new thoughts on cash as well.
26:16Yeah, first on satellites and qualifiers. I think those games can be softer.
26:20Definitely, like satellites, like play a 10-man, whoever wins it gets a ticket to a 50-year whatever, you know, type of deal.
26:28Yes, I think those are typically good action. Qualifiers are just so hard on your bankroll.
26:34They're often expensive and so hard to win. And then once that's raked, and then once you get to the final, that's raked as well.
26:43And that will be a very, very tough field.
26:46So, if you're trying to like grow your role, I do not think you should be playing qualifiers.
26:53Satellites, qualifiers to live finals. Satellites to bigger contests, sure, I think that's probably good action.
26:59Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, I still think DFS cash is good and beatable for a decent ROI.
27:05I mean, definitely a really good ROI early in the season.
27:09Later in the season, I think a decent ROI, you know, nothing massive, but fine.
27:15I think if you're serious about maximizing your ROI, it's about finding off the beaten path games.
27:21We have an article up on the site right now about the 100 mans on Fandle.
27:26That's under a Fandle contest selection. You know, 100 mans on Fandle is a good place to look.
27:33I would look at the quote unquote reposting of GPPs.
27:37In other words, DraftKings and Fandle put up DFS tournaments all week.
27:41The big ones, when those fill, they post smaller ones.
27:44Those are typically really good action. Another example could be 10 man contests that pay three spots.
27:51I could keep going, but you get my point.
27:54If your goal is to maximize ROI, it's unlikely that's going to come in the main contests that are in front of your face in the lobbies.
28:04And I fall victim to this too. You know, like the 250 on Fandle that I talked about earlier, it's a tough contest.
28:12You know, it is. But like, it stares me in the face.
28:16I want to play big contests and try to win a lot of money.
28:21If I was trying to grind as hard as I could, I probably wouldn't be playing that.
28:27You know, like the main contest that are in front of your face, that's like walking into Bellagio cold and just saying,
28:35oh, I'm going to sit down and play 10-20 no limit.
28:39It's going to be rag infested. It's unlikely to be great action.
28:44So, just think about where you think most regs professionals are going to be.
28:49Find places they aren't and look for better games there.
28:52Question three from Matt says, I want to let you know that my wife and I listening to your podcast on only
29:00children, it ultimately impacted our decision to have a second kid.
29:04My wife is pregnant now and due with a boy in November.
29:09Think about that solo pod often. Daughter turns four in October.
29:13God, Matt. I got to tell you guys, I get a disturbing amount of these kind of messages and by these kind
29:21of messages, I mean ones where people tell me I literally influenced some of the most important decisions they will ever make in their entire life.
29:30Me, I, influenced their decisions on the most important stuff.
29:34I want to be clear on this. I'm not an influencer.
29:37I did not set out to be an influencer.
29:41I understand that I influence people now, but I was like just a dude who was really into peer-to-peer gambling and I
29:49like to tell jokes and somehow we ended up here.
29:52So please, don't take anything I say about life too seriously.
29:56Now, with that disclaimer out of the way, I have really changed my tune on the multiple kids thing, Matt.
30:03If, and believe me, this is a big if, if you can survive the first four, four and a half years of
30:11the kid's life, and yes, those will be the worst years of your life.
30:16If you can survive that, my new take is I'd actually have as many kids as possible.
30:23So, I have two kids, they're 11 and 8 now.
30:26If you said I could have another kid or two or even three kids and they enter my house at five years
30:34old right now, I actually think that I would take it.
30:38I would take three more five-year-olds right now and have five kids.
30:42I mean, that's how much I've been like enjoying this age from when they turned five until now when they're 11.
30:50But, under no circumstance whatsoever would I take a baby right now.
30:54I mean, it literally almost killed me when my kids were between the age of zero and four.
31:01It literally almost killed me. I was clinically depressed during that time.
31:05So, anyways, shout out to you, Matt. You know, glad you went for it.
31:10I'm an only child and everyone knows how deranged I am and some people would say that the fact that I am
31:18an only child is the reason I'm so deranged.
31:21So, be careful out there. All right, question four.
31:25Last question we're going to do today comes from Kiko.
31:28He says, ETR seems quite selective in who you interact with in the fantasy world and no participation in the fantasy pros rankings.
31:37You are outliers in the best ways. How did you establish the culture with such a unique edge and fresh perspective?
31:44Well, that's too kind, Kiko, first of all. Second of all, I'm not exactly sure to answer your question.
31:51I think one of my strengths strengths, like for me personally, is reading people.
31:56Like, it does not take me very long to establish if people are sharp, trustworthy, if they're actually doing work, doing the right work, or if they're frauds.
32:06And quite frankly, most people in this game are frauds.
32:10So like, it's really easy to spot. The people out there beating their chest, you know, being super arrogant, we know they don't have the goods, you know?
32:20Like, of course we have to do some of that selling or running a business, but really we expect our work to
32:28speak for itself in like, an if-you-know-you-know situation. So, people who don't know, you know, they're gonna say crazy things to us,
32:36they're gonna be like, you got this wrong. It's an if-you-know-you-know situation.
32:40And that's why so many pros and RecPlus people and the Sharpers people are using our stuff because they know.
32:47So, we're just so confident that if you're serious about predicting what's gonna happen with players and you interact with ETR in
32:55any way, you will see or can tell that we have the goods.
33:00Like, there's a reason that sportsbooks did everything in their power and then some to stop us from releasing props.
33:07They know that we're winning. Most people who are releasing props, they don't even move the line, let alone have sportsbooks going
33:15crazy trying to stop us from taking stuff. So anyways, there's just so many advantages I think to being as deep as
33:23you can in your niche as you possibly can be.
33:27Like, a ton of us have been doing this kind of work for 20 plus years, either, you know, playing professionally or doing content or running a business.
33:37When you know everything about your niche, it's pretty easy to know who's real and who's a fraud, Kiko, and hopefully that answers your question.
33:46All right, that's going to do it for another edition of the Solo Pod.
33:51I'll be back Tuesday evening with Silva for the first team-by-team show of the year.
33:56Looking forward to that. For producer Luke, for Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world, be sure you subscribe to the pod feed.
34:05It is indeed free. I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.
34:09everybody.
