PodcastFrom Establish The Run
The Worst Fantasy Pick In Each Round (Episode 1017 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
41 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 3, 2026
Published
Thu, September 3, 2026
17
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Bijan RobinsonCarnell TateCeeDee LambChuba HubbardCourtland SuttonDe'Von AchaneGeorge PickensHarold FanninJa'Marr ChaseJahmyr GibbsJeremiyah LoveJoe BurrowJonathon BrooksJustin Jefferson
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveProjection4:01
Evan Silva ranks Bijan Robinson as his number two overall player and expects a high-usage season, though he prefers Jahmyr Gibbs due to a superior offensive environment and quarterback situation in Detroit compared to Atlanta.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeBust33:12
Evan Silva and Adam Levitan identify Carnell Tate as a seventh-round bust, citing concerns about his college production, lack of elite speed, and a poor landing spot in Tennessee. Silva expects a difficult year for the Titans' offense, noting that quarterback Cam Ward is still developing and the offensive line is weak, which will hinder Tate's ability to function as a vertical receiver.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeBust9:57
Adam Levitan identifies CeeDee Lamb as his least favorite first-round pick, arguing his ceiling is capped by the presence of George Pickens and Ryan Flournoy, and noting a decline in targets per route run when sharing the field with Pickens.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust37:45
Adam Levitan fades Chuba Hubbard in the eighth round, arguing that he has a limited ceiling in a committee backfield on a poor Panthers offense. Levitan notes that with Jonathan Brooks returning from injury, the backfield will likely split work, making Hubbard an unappealing pick for fantasy managers looking for high-upside contributors.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeBust35:30
Adam Levitan and Evan Silva advise against drafting Cortland Sutton in the eighth round, noting that he is 30 years old and likely to be marginalized in a crowded Broncos receiving corps. They highlight the presence of Jalen Waddell, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims as factors that will likely lead to a rotation, capping Sutton's upside.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust15:39
Adam Levitan and Evan Silva label De'Von Achane the worst pick in round two due to a massive downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa to Malik Willis, a coaching change from Mike McDaniel to Bobby Slowik, and a poor Dolphins roster that risks tanking.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveUsage13:43
Evan Silva suggests that George Pickens could be considered a more talented one-for-one player than CeeDee Lamb, though Lamb maintains a volume advantage due to his route profile.
Insight pageHarold Fannin
NegativeValue28:46
Evan Silva and Adam Levitan both fade Harold Fannin in the sixth round, noting his ADP is significantly higher in redraft than in best ball. They prefer other tight ends in that tier like Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, and Tucker Craft, citing concerns about the Browns' offense, the addition of high-draft-pick wide receivers, and potential quarterback instability.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection8:20
Adam Levitan highlights that Ja'Marr Chase, alongside Puka Nacua, possesses a better floor-ceiling combination than Bijan Robinson in certain analytical models.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection5:00
Evan Silva prefers Jahmyr Gibbs over Bijan Robinson at the 1.01 draft slot, citing a better offensive line, the absence of David Montgomery, and a superior offensive environment in Detroit.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeBust26:41
Evan Silva labels Jeremiah Love a bust candidate in round three due to a high ankle sprain, a poor offensive environment in Arizona, and the presence of Tyler Allgeier at the goal line.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeValue26:21
Adam Levitan identifies Joe Burrow as a poor value in the fifth round, citing the high opportunity cost compared to rushing quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts. Levitan notes that even with elite passing stats, Burrow struggles to finish as the overall QB1, making him a difficult pick when cheaper pocket passers are available later.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
NegativeInjury38:32
Adam Levitan and Evan Silva discuss Jonathan Brooks' recent soreness, noting he missed practice time but is expected to be ready for Week 1. They anticipate a 50-50 split in the Panthers' backfield to start the season, with the role eventually going to whoever earns more work.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeValue14:55
Evan Silva fades Justin Jefferson in the first round, noting he ranks him three spots below his ADP and does not draft him because he is consistently taken before his turn.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveBreakout20:49
Adam Levitan highlights Mike Washington as a hand-picked player by Clint Kubiak who has capitalized on first-team reps during Gentry's injury, making him a potential threat to the backfield split.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection8:20
Adam Levitan notes that Puka Nacua has a better floor-ceiling combination than Bijan Robinson in some models and, following the news that he will not be suspended, is a viable consideration at the 1.02 draft spot.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeBust24:51
Evan Silva and Adam Levitan advise against drafting Rashee Rice in round three due to health concerns following knee surgery, potential suspension risk, and a reduced role caused by the arrival of Kenneth Walker.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to episode 1017 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:08As always, joined by Evan Silva. And you guys know me.
0:12I am a glass half full kind of guy.
0:15I am Mr. Positivity. I am a ray of sunshine.
0:18So I didn't even really want to do this show on the worst picks in each round.
0:24But we got so much good feedback on our best picks in each round show that I agreed to do this here.
0:31So we are here today. Evan, how's it going?
0:34It's going great. We're doing this on Thursday, September 3rd.
0:37Mere days, not even a week, days away from the start of the NFL season.
0:42Also the start in college football of the perfect season on beginning Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
0:47The perfect season. Yes, Rudy Rüdiger, I'm sure, and Evan will be joined hands watching together.
0:53On today's show, we are going to identify and discuss the worst pick in each round.
0:58We'll go through the first eight rounds of fantasy football drafts.
1:02This is aimed at half PPR formats. Obviously, it's difficult to know where players will go in each round.
1:08We are doing our best here to estimate how your drafts will go.
1:12Today's show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets and one that is now available in every U.S.
1:20state. Longtime listeners of this show know that I care most about getting the best price.
1:25I'm not just talking about players ADP and fantasy.
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1:37Because Poly is a prediction market, where traders trade against each other, we can often get the best price, aka the biggest payout.
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2:04Perhaps most importantly, there's no limiting or banning across any market on Poly.
2:09And there are tons of markets. Traditional ones, futures, alts, everything.
2:12Even if you're interested in player props or some of the smaller markets like I am, you will not get the dreaded max is 26 cents screen.
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2:33Bonus. All right, Evan, let's get into it here with worst picks in each round.
2:38We will start with round one. Evan, go ahead.
2:41So it's not that I think that Bijan Robinson is a bad pick.
2:45Obviously, I have Bijan Robinson as my number two overall player.
2:48But I think that when you're on the board and you're about to find out your draft fills, you're about to find
2:56out where you're going to draft, what your draft slot is going to be.
3:00It's just a blow. Like, I would so much rather have the 1.01 pick than the 1.02 this year because I really want Jameer Gibbs.
3:08It's talking about the offensive environment. No David Montgomery.
3:11You know, better offensive line. I mean, just, you know, the quarterback situations are diametrically opposed going from looking at Detroit and Atlanta.
3:19I would just so much rather have Jameer Gibbs this year than Bijan Robinson at the top of the drafts.
3:25And I think that Bijan, again, I think Bijan Robinson is going to have a really nice season.
3:31He's going to be a usage machine. You can use him in all different facets of the game.
3:37He's going to be really good. I think that Jameer Gibbs has a chance to be great, a truly great, like an historic kind of season.
3:46And when my draft fills and I see that I get the 1.02 instead of the 1.01, it's just like, ah, I
3:53just wish I would have been one spot closer so I could take Jameer Gibbs, one spot higher to take Jameer Gibbs instead of Bijan Robinson.
4:01Yeah, to me, obviously, the only concern on Bijan Robinson is the systemic risk.
4:06And he's overcome this in the past. They have not been a great team.
4:11He's been a very, very, very good fantasy player.
4:14I actually think the way Tua likes to play is good for Bijan.
4:18You know, like, don't take hits. Don't take sacks.
4:21You don't have a strong arm. Get the ball out quickly and let Bijan catch 70, 80, 90 balls.
4:27I do not think we're going to see Tua for the full season.
4:31We're also going to see Penix. I don't know if you have a preference, Evan.
4:36If you do draft Bijan, would you rather have Tua or Penix as your quarterback there?
4:41Tua has just looked so bad in the preseason.
4:44And by all accounts throughout training camp, that I think I would take my chances with Michael Penix, assuming that he is healthy.
4:52Because I think that he gives more upside to the offense as an entity.
4:56Yeah, you know, and from a straight math perspective, and some of you guys have seen this in certain sets of our
5:04rankings, from a straight math perspective, we have Puka and Jamar Chase coming out with more points than Bijan a lot.
5:10One of the reasons in most formats we do prefer Bijan at two is for structural reasons.
5:16But I actually don't think it's crazy to say that Puka and Chase have a better floor-ceiling combo than Bijan.
5:23And that's not to say anything bad about Bijan.
5:26I love him. But, like, it would not shock me at all.
5:29And it's so close between that tier. Agree with Evan, it's not close.
5:34Jameer Gibbs in a tier of his own there at the top.
5:38By the way, with this suspension news that just came out, you know, one of the things that kind of flew under
5:45the radar was that Puka Nakua did not receive a suspension, which had been rumored for weeks based on the reporting of Adam Schefter.
5:53I don't think it's crazy to at least consider Puka Nakua at 1.02.
5:57Okay. My pick for worst play in round one is going to be CeeDee Lamb.
6:02I want to be clear. It's not that I really dislike CeeDee.
6:06I think round one is really strong. I struggled to come up with a worst pick here.
6:11I am going with CeeDee because he is my least favorite of the wide receivers that go in round one.
6:18And so, yes, I think it's close between James Cook and CeeDee Lamb, between Saquon Barkley and CeeDee Lamb, between Kenneth Walker and CeeDee Lamb.
6:26But when it's close, I'm going running back there over wide receiver.
6:30Especially when I could argue that CeeDee Lamb's true ceiling outcomes are capped by the presence of George Pickens in emerging wide receiver three and Ryan Fornoy.
6:39Jake Ferguson caught 82 balls last year. I think the Cowboys are going to primarily be a three wide receiver set team.
6:46And that's worse for wide receivers when compared to wide receivers like Puka Nakua or Lad McConkie, whose teams we expect to
6:53throw more out of two wide receiver sets. So, like, I think and I know that this Cowboys offense can support both CeeDee and George Pickens.
7:02I would just note that we're picking nits here.
7:05CeeDee full season targets per route run last season was 27%.
7:08Pickens 23%. The year before when Pickens was not there, CeeDee was up at 30% targets per route run.
7:14Last season, when they both ran a route together, Lamb was only at 26%.
7:19So, it's a small thing, just a few percentage points.
7:22But I do think it matters when you're talking about round one.
7:26And so, Evan, CeeDee Lamb is my least favorite pick of round one.
7:31Yeah, I was looking towards the back end of the first round.
7:34If I was going to pick a player to be my least favorite pick in the first round, it would probably be CeeDee Lamb.
7:42Although, I'll tell you, and this is based on a little bit of a small sample size, just the drafts that I've done.
7:50And also, some negative sentiment throughout the fantasy football industry.
7:53CeeDee Lamb has been falling, I think, a little bit.
7:56I saw him go at the top of the second round in an FFPC main event that I did recently.
8:03And that's a very wide receiver friendly format because you can start four of them and it's full PPR.
8:09He wound up being an awesome value there. I do think that there are drafts out there where CeeDee Lamb is falling a little bit.
8:17And in that case, it becomes a value. Just the kind of routes that George Pickens runs.
8:23And you can make a really strong case that George Pickens is a more talented one-for-one player than CeeDee Lamb.
8:29But the kinds of routes that CeeDee Lamb is going to run give him a big advantage in terms of his target volume projection.
8:37I still feel very comfortable with CeeDee Lamb right around the 1-2 turn.
8:42But I'm with you that he's probably my least favorite pick at the back end of round one.
8:47I thought for sure you were going to say Justin Jefferson.
8:51Are you still on a Justin Jefferson fade here in round one, Evan?
8:55Justin Jefferson is difficult for me because I have him as the wide receiver six overall, which is right in line with consensus.
9:03His ADP is wide receiver six. However, I have Justin Jefferson, I think, three spots below his ADP in terms of overall.
9:10And when you're that high up in the draft, I mean, I never get Justin Jefferson.
9:15Ever. He always goes before me. Yeah, I mean, he would be right there with CeeDee Lamb in terms of least favorite.
9:22I mean, I would never take Justin Jefferson in the first round because I don't have him ranked in the first round.
9:30Yeah. So that's not a dilemma for me. Yep.
9:33All right, let's go to round two. I am going to say worst pick in round two is Devon Achan.
9:39I hate saying bad things about Devon Achan. Just an incredible fantasy player.
9:43The ability to run for an 80-yard touchdown and handle 20 touches in a game and catch 100 balls in a season.
9:51Like, Achan is capable of all of that. That is what fantasy dreams are made of.
9:56I think he's the worst pick in round two because his previous situation was so incredible.
10:01And his 2026 situation is just the exact opposite.
10:04Goes from Tua Tugavailoa, one of the NFL's premier checkdown artists, as I just mentioned, to Malik Willis.
10:10Malik Willis, a quarterback who is more likely to tuck and run rather than check down.
10:15Also going from Mike McDaniel, one of the best in the NFL in terms of run scheme EPA per play and a ton of other play calling stats.
10:24Going from that to Bobby Slowick is just a massive downgrade.
10:28And then not just that, you also have the team level risks.
10:32I mean, this is one of the worst rosters I've ever seen the Dolphins is in terms of talent.
10:38It's going to be hard to score touchdowns. And once the Dolphins are 2-9 or 1-10 or even 3-8, what's the point of subjecting Achan to big workloads?
10:47What's the point of taking injections to get through that sprained ankle in play when everyone knows you're tanking anyways?
10:54So I think Devon Achan is going to have some really nice games.
10:58He's too good of a player not to, but the opportunity cost in round two, I just cannot get there at that price on Devon Achan.
11:06Yeah, the downgrade from Mike McDaniel to Bobby Slowick could be absolutely massive.
11:11It could be catastrophic for Devon Achan this year.
11:14Also, you know, starting to write the week one matchups column, I'm looking at, you know, throughout like fantasy, pre-draft fantasy season, I'm really focused on offenses.
11:22But looking more into the defenses, the Dolphins, they have the worst secondary I've ever seen entering a season, ever.
11:29I mean, guys that were fifth round picks last year, you know, a rookie in Chris Johnson.
11:35I mean, they're not going to be able to generate any kind of pass rush.
11:39This team is going to get destroyed all season long, and that never bodes well for the starting running back in that particular offense.
11:47And then you have a running quarterback. I mean, it's a really, really – it's one of the worst situations for a
11:55running back that you could dream up, going from the coordinator downgrade to the kind of quarterback.
12:00And people would just be like, oh, well, Tua sucks.
12:03So, I mean, that doesn't mean that a guy who comes in and who has six career starts – Malik Willis has
12:11six career starts – under 100 pass attempts over the last two seasons is going to be any kind of an upgrade either.
12:18Yeah. I mean, that's also a big assumption. Now, we like the idea of Malik Willis in fantasy, but that's just an idea.
12:26This situation is horrible. My pick here was Ashton Gentry, who I think his situation has absolutely improved since last year.
12:32And I think he is – I'm optimistic that he will bounce back.
12:37I'm worried about Mike Washington. And I know that Mike Washington was a fourth-round pick, and Ashton Gentry was the sixth overall
12:44pick, and Mike Washington was like an underachiever in college based on his athletic measurements.
12:49Clint Kubiak hand-picked Mike Washington. There was a report that came out that Clint Kubiak, and this is always a figure of
12:56speech, was standing on the table or pounding the table for Mike Washington.
13:00But then Mike Washington comes in, and he delivers.
13:03Ashton Gentry mixes a big chunk of training camp with the angle injury, and Mike Washington capitalizes with first-team reps.
13:10He was already running away with the number-two back job.
13:13He jumps in the preseason as the best running back in the NFL during the preseason.
13:18Now, that only means so much. But, man, he looks like an awesome, awesome, awesome system fit.
13:24And I think coming out week one, the Raiders – I think it will be close to a 50-50 split in week
13:31one with Ashton Gentry coming off the injury and Mike Washington having shown himself and being the hand-picked player by Clint Kubiak.
13:38And then after that, things will be dictated based on performance.
13:42But if Mike Washington continues to perform, I think he's going to be a real problem for Ashton Gentry.
13:48Yeah, it's tough. You know, on the Gentry, the ankle thing has kind of thrown me a bit on that.
13:55On the Mike Washington stuff, you know, I think, to me, the max Mike Washington will play would be like the Brian Robinson type of role.
14:03And that was an annoying-ish role to Bijan last year.
14:06But Bijan was still fantasy's number-two player, I believe.
14:09So, you know, you can have Mike Washington with a real role, and Ashton Gentry can still absolutely smash if he's good
14:17enough, if the offense is good enough. To me, it's more just the ankle thing on Gentry than the Mike Washington stuff.
14:24The latest reports are Gentry has a very good chance to play here in week one.
14:29But it's an interesting spot, for sure. And to be fair, I stole A-Chan from Evan.
14:34I believe Evan would have said A-Chan as his number-one worst pick if I didn't take that one from him.
14:41Let's go to round three. I went first in round two.
14:44Evan, I will give you the floor here for round three.
14:48Round three, I am going with... Well, I have two.
14:51Jeremiah Love and Rasheed Rice. Both of these players were on my shy away list, which you can read in the Establish the Run draft kit.
15:00With Rasheed Rice, I am just not confident in his health at this point.
15:04There have been training camp videos that have come out.
15:08Again, he rehabbed from knee surgery in literal jail.
15:11There have been... The training camp videos that have come out do not reflect positively.
15:15I don't think it sounds like he's been outplayed by six-round rookie Cyrus Allen in training camp.
15:21I also think that the Kenneth Walker signing is going to be a huge blow to Rasheed Rice because the Chiefs now have a running game.
15:29And a running back that they believe is going to be a true every-down back.
15:34They're going to bring back the screen game, throwing screens to Kenneth Walker.
15:39And they don't really... And they're number two back behind him.
15:42It's like they're not trying to take any kind of a load off of Kenneth Walker.
15:47They're number two running back, and I like Emma Johnson a lot.
15:51But he's a fifth-round rookie. So it's going to be a ton of Kenneth Walker.
15:56Reduced role for Rasheed Rice, who I'm not confident in from a health standpoint.
16:01That's where I'm at with Rasheed Rice. With Jeremiah Love, again, health situation going on here.
16:06High ankle sprain. The only worst offensive environment in the NFL for a running back is in Miami, as opposed to Arizona.
16:13Arizona lost their starting... Who would have been their starting right guard?
16:17Chase Besantis through a season-ending injury early in training camp.
16:21They've got other running backs that they can play.
16:23Certainly Tyler Algier is going to play a role at the goal line.
16:28And I don't think the Cardinals are going to score very many touchdowns, period.
16:32So Jeremiah Love will have to hit his touchdowns from a long distance.
16:37And he did that at Notre Dame. That's a lot harder to do in the NFL to hit long home run touchdowns on a high ankle sprain.
16:45So all kinds of problems for Jeremiah Love. Yeah.
16:48Mine was actually Rasheed Rice here also. And Evan mentioned some of the flags coming off of the knee cleanup.
16:55He's like one more transgression away from what I would think would be a long suspension.
17:00I mean, I feel like the NFL has had enough of Rasheed Rice.
17:04They're just waiting for him to mess up one more time to drop the band hammer.
17:10I'm just not sure. Like Evan said, do you really want to run your offense through Rasheed Rice's three-yard drag routes?
17:16I don't think that's been successful for them from an offensive environment standpoint.
17:21So I think he'll be okay and get plenty of those.
17:24But if the offense runs more through Walker, more through Worthy, it's really Rice isn't that great of an NFL wide receiver.
17:32It's just a role and scheme-based thing for his production.
17:35So there's just enough risk with all this stuff with Rasheed Rice that I prefer to go with one of the other round three wide receiver options.
17:44And there are a lot of them. Chris Alave, Ladd McConkie, Devonta Smith.
17:48You know, a little bit later, you can get T.
17:51Higgins. Zay Flowers. Jalen Waddell. You do not have to force it at round three wide receiver.
17:57There are so many ones that I like through there.
18:00And so again, if we're nitpicking, Rasheed Rice, to me, would be the worst pick here in round three of your draft.
18:07Speaking of redraft, if you have your league coming up, I'm obviously biased, but I could not fathom doing it without the ETR draft kit.
18:15At a minimum, you know we put an incredible amount of thought and effort into every single spot.
18:21We haven't missed a single injury or coach quote or depth chart change.
18:26So just bringing those solid ranks to your draft is a huge edge.
18:30Be sure you pick up the draft kit if you don't have that.
18:34More importantly, most of our shows, and I appreciate everyone who's listened to all these shows all offseason.
18:40We've had a ton of fun doing it. Hopefully you guys have found value.
18:44Most of our shows will be part of our ETR NFL in-season product during the season.
18:50So starting next week, Friday night, myself, Silva, and Wiggins establish a show.
18:54We talk through every game on the main slate.
18:57Sunday morning, myself and Silva, last minute live stream.
19:00Also, Silva and Leone, Man vs. Machine show will be in the season.
19:04We also have a projections context show. Establish the Million with Dink and Leone.
19:09So if you like watching these shows, I'm sorry, most of them will be behind the paywall during the season.
19:15If you have draft kit and you want to upgrade to our in-season product, you want the bundle.
19:21So you can shoot a note to support at establishtherun.com.
19:24Tell us you have draft kit, you want to upgrade to bundle, and we'll get you set up at the bundle price.
19:32Again, the NFL bundle combines draft kit and in-season.
19:35Check that out at establishtherun.com. All right, Evan, let's go to round four.
19:39I'll go first here. My worst pick in round four is Cam Skadaboo.
19:43I'm just not sold that the new Giants regime really loves Cam Skadaboo.
19:47This is a guy who went in round four of the draft and is coming off of a major injury.
19:54I thought that he would be fine and good, but I'm not sure they agreed.
19:59They were linked to all kinds of running backs throughout the offseason.
20:03They were linked to Kenneth Walker in free agency.
20:06They were linked to Jeremiah Love in the draft.
20:09Plenty of other guys. They end up settling for Najee Harris.
20:12But in their head, I don't even know if they think they settled.
20:16I think this new regime, which is a ton of boomers, I think they actually think Najee Harris is good.
20:23And that's the other concern to me with Skadaboo.
20:26I just don't trust Harbaugh, Nagy, Greg Roman in today's NFL.
20:30So they keep four, four running backs on the final roster here, Evan.
20:34I don't think they're all going to be active on Sunday, but they have Skadaboo, Najee, Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary.
20:41In this range at running back, I'd much rather take someone that I think the regime really likes.
20:47DeAndre Swift, Jadarian Price, David Montgomery. All those guys go later than Skadaboo or at least around him.
20:52And I think are better plays at this point.
20:55So for me, Cam Skadaboo, worst pick in round four, Evan.
20:59That was also my pick, Cam Skadaboo. I had nothing to do with him really until maybe like round seven, maybe.
21:06Even then, I'm looking at different guys on the board.
21:09And it's for all the reasons that you mentioned.
21:12There are four playable running backs on the Giants roster right now.
21:16Cam Skadaboo is coming off a gruesome injury. I don't even know that he's – I know that he's practicing.
21:23But I don't know that he's going to have all of his explosion and, you know, his power that he showed as a rookie back from that injury.
21:32And there are just guys like Najee Harris is like a very similar player to Cam Skadaboo.
21:37They brought in a running back that is almost interchangeable with Skadaboo.
21:41That's an indictment on Cam Skadaboo. And as you mentioned, he's a holdover from the previous coaching staff who was a fourth-round pick.
21:49Those guys are not great bets from a projection standpoint almost in any scenario.
21:53Yeah, I don't want anything to do with Cam Skadaboo.
21:57You know, and like I thought Skadaboo was okay around like pick 50 at the beginning because the way he scores, the
22:04way he plays is so fantasy friendly. He's good out of the backfield, commands targets, really good at the goal line.
22:11But I just don't think that the staff is committed to him.
22:15So, yeah. I would still take him. I don't know if there's anything to be put into the rumors or anything, but
22:22there are like rumors that John Harbaugh doesn't like him.
22:25Yeah. And then like his teammates even don't like Cam Skadaboo at this point.
22:30Like his act is sort of starting to wear thin.
22:33If he had not done that backflip, I feel like he'd be going later.
22:37But once he did the backflip, everyone was like, look, his explosion's back.
22:42He's doing backflips. He didn't even land it. He didn't even land the backflip.
22:46Didn't he land one at the softball game or something?
22:50Then he did it again and he didn't land that one.
22:53I thought he didn't land any of them. All right.
22:56Let's go to round five. Evan, I think we have different guys for this one.
23:01I'll let you go first here in round five.
23:04Round five for me is Devontae Adams. And Devontae Adams, I know he's got a lot of support.
23:10Actually at ETR, I think that Adam Levitan has been drafting him.
23:14Leone caped for him. And he's a player that if you look at his Matt Harmon reception perception, you know, he's not
23:21the receiver from a vertical standpoint that he used to be.
23:25Devontae Adams last year finished under 800 yards. Now he played in 14 games.
23:29He missed three. But he lived off touchdowns. He scored 14 touchdowns last season.
23:34I think that what the Rams were doing last year, they were trying to get Matthew Stafford an MVP award.
23:41And they were spamming these little goal line routes to Devontae Adams.
23:45That's just a really tough way to live. And Devontae Adams is 33 years old.
23:49I just I don't think that he's the same player.
23:53So what you're going to be doing, you're going to be live.
23:57You're going to be trying to live on touchdowns when you draft Devontae Adams.
24:01And what if he what if he has a good year from a touchdown standpoint, but he only scores nine, which is five fewer than last year.
24:10And he's not making big plays in the passing game.
24:13I mean, you're going to be out of luck.
24:16I mean, nine touchdowns and 700 yards in the fifth round is not something that I want to deal with from the from Devontae Adams.
24:24And really no ceiling for for a whole lot more than that.
24:28I also think that Matthew Stafford is bound for negative touchdown regression.
24:32I mean, his 7.7 percent touchdown rate last year was just absolutely absurd.
24:37The highest of his career. He's played in the NFL for a long time.
24:41Also the highest in the NFL. I just think the Rams are going to score fewer touchdowns.
24:47They're not going to need to score as many touchdowns this year because of how loaded they are on defense.
24:53And that's going to work against Devontae Adams. Yeah.
24:56So I thought Evan made some very valid points there on Devontae Adams.
25:00Come on, man. If he plays 17 games, he's going over 700 yards.
25:05Let's not let's not let's not crush him that bad.
25:08Where does the ball go for the Rams? This is going to be one of the best offenses in the NFL.
25:15And this is like the dead zone argument, which I hate to make.
25:19But if they're actually as good as people think and the market thinks, they're going to score so many points and have so many yards.
25:27And they don't have that much talent beyond Puka and Devontae in the past game.
25:32Like that's why people are propping up Terrence Ferguson, who I like.
25:36But come on, we can't compare him to Devontae Adams.
25:39So we are above market in our rank on Devontae Adams.
25:43He goes 56.7 overall right now is his redraft ADP.
25:46I think at 56.7, I would take him there if you want to argue we shouldn't have him in the 40s.
25:53I can bite on that. But yeah, the cliff is like being gradual for Devontae Adams more than just like falling off.
26:00If he if he's as bad as Evan says this year, that's a problem for the Rams.
26:06They do not have anyone else. I mean, what are you talking about?
26:10Mumfield or Whittington or something like that? I mean, they're well, you could see how desperate they are.
26:16They just traded for two to out. You got to go get two to back.
26:21All right. My worst pick in round five is Joe Burrow.
26:24I actually think the Bengals are going to be very good this year.
26:29And Burrow is going to have a very good year.
26:32But it is very difficult for a pocket passer to really bury me at a round five price tag.
26:38Especially when runners like Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts go around or two later.
26:43Not and he's like, I don't think Joe Burrow is going to bury me when I can get Trevor Lawrence or Jared Goff for very, very cheap.
26:52Not when I can get a runner like Kyler or Caleb or Dart later.
26:56So my point is that Joe Burrow could sustain health, which has been a problem for him.
27:02But he could sustain health, throw for 4,500 yards, throw for 40 touchdowns, and still not finish as fantasy's quarterback one.
27:09In fact, that's what happened in 2024. Burrow went absolutely nuts.
27:124,900 yards, 43 touchdown passes, and still finished way behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
27:17So here in round five, when there are so many strong wide receivers and some high upside running back options, I'd rather
27:24just wait and hit some of the later round quarterbacks, some of the platoon setups that we've talked about.
27:31So for me, it's just like the opportunity cost in the fifth round, the quarterbacks that are available later, and Burrow as
27:38a pocket passer makes him a really tough click for me here.
27:42I'd rather have a good chance in round five, even though I love Joe Burrow, you know, in general.
27:48All right. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't take Joe Burrow in the fifth round either.
27:53Okay. Yeah, he's got to fall a couple more rounds for me.
27:57And I love Joe Burrow. I'll probably like him more than you this year.
28:01And yeah, I wouldn't touch him in the fifth round.
28:05I did take Bengals Super Bowl 30 to one.
28:08So, you know, and I do think Dexter Lawrence and they have like legit corner play now.
28:13I mean, I'm not saying defense is going to be good.
28:17They could have a competent defense. Yeah. If the defense is like average, how could they not be?
28:23You know, and that lines down to 20 to one now or so.
28:27But yeah, I think the Bengals are going to be good.
28:30Okay. Let's go to round six. Evan and I, I believe, have the same one here.
28:36I'll just say from a straddle that Evan talked a little bit more about the micro from a straddle.
28:42And it's Harold Fannin, who is both of our worst pick in round six.
28:46I'll just talk about from a strategy standpoint. Harold Fannin, the ADP on this tight end tier of Tucker Craft, Sam Laporta, Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin.
28:55That tier goes very high. Fannin's ADP is 70 overall in blended ADP.
28:59It's 71 on ESPN. It's 77 on Yahoo. It's 66 on Sleeper.
29:03That is way different than where Harold Fannin's been going in best ball, which has been closer to pick 100.
29:10So it's just a different conversation in terms of cost.
29:13From a strategy standpoint, I'd much rather take Brock Bowers or Loveland or McBride at our rank than reach for a Harold
29:20Fannin or any other tight end really in this tier.
29:23So that's kind of the strategy way I think about it here.
29:27Evan, there's also some micro points I think we can make that we have questions about around Harold Fannin.
29:34So go ahead on why Harold Fannin is your worst pick in round six.
29:38I feel like I don't not like Harold Fannin.
29:41For a tight end that is in a situation where the offense could be just absolutely putrid and they brought in a
29:48first round wide receiver and a second round wide receiver who are both going to start.
29:54Like they're playing the kids in Cleveland. I don't understand how people are justifying taking Harold Fannin as early as they are.
30:01And I also like in this same tier and I have all these guys in the same tier.
30:07I like Kyle Pitts better. I like Sam Laporta better.
30:10I like Tucker Craft better than Harold Fannin. They're all in better situations and tight ends can be fairly situation dependent because tight ends can be touchdown dependent.
30:19So you want tight ends that are in scenarios.
30:22I mean, the Browns aren't going to score very much.
30:25They're going to start out with Deshaun Watson. I think that they'll go to Shador Sanders by week three when they come home after a two-week road trip.
30:34And Shador Sanders and Harold Fannin showed a connection last year for sure.
30:39But this offense is not. I also think that there's something to the notion that outgoing Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Reese, those
30:46guys were a little bit of tight end whisperers.
30:49I like Todd Monk in a lot. You know, I love Todd Monk in.
30:53But I don't know that he's necessarily going to build this offense around Harold Fannin the same way that Stefanski and Shador
31:01Sanders did, especially with the first and second round wide receivers.
31:04Yeah, I was on the fence between Fannin and Pitts for a while.
31:08I do now prefer Pitts over Fannin because of that coaching point that Evan said.
31:13A lot of Kevin Stefanski's offense can be get the ball out quick to your tight end and let them make plays.
31:21I hate saying bad things about Harold Fannin because he was incredible in college.
31:25You know, not just against joke teams. He lit up Penn State also.
31:29Then the first year in the NFL, Harold Fannin ices David Njoku.
31:33Thought he played really well. But yeah, I mean, Concepcion and Boston I think are going to be good.
31:40Browns have not upgraded quarterback at all. You get the bad weather late in Cleveland.
31:44I mean, it's just a really tough price for me in round six when there are some awesome wide receiver bets to make in round six.
31:53One other positive thing I'll say about this player that I just told people not to draft is that Harold Fannin is
32:00going to play a ton this year. Look at the Browns tight end depth chart.
32:05Their number two tight end is Blake Whitehart and their number three tight end is Carson Ryan.
32:11I think that we're going to see a lot of three by one, 11 personnel with Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, Jerry Judy.
32:18We'll see how long that lasts. And then Harold Fannin as the primary tight end.
32:23Harold Fannin will play a ton. I think he's going to be all right.
32:27It's just, again, in that tier, I'd rather have the tight ends that are in better situations that are set up to
32:35score maybe twice as many touchdowns as Harold Fannin will this year.
32:38Yeah, and I thought coming into it that Harold Fannin would be going in round nine.
32:44And so, like, when I started looking at the redraft ADP really closely, that was one of the biggest things that stuck
32:51out to me is this tier does go round six.
32:54Sometimes round seven. All right. Let's go to round seven here, Evan.
32:58And I believe this is another one where we have the same guy.
33:02Evan and I are really in lockstep this year on fades, or at least for some of them.
33:08But our worst pick in round seven is Carnell Tate.
33:12I already had some questions around Carnell Tate's production in college.
33:15I get he was playing with Jeremiah Smith. But if you are worthy of being the number four overall pick in the
33:22draft, I would want more than 52 catches or 875 yards in a college season.
33:27I'd want you to show up in big college games.
33:30Tate really didn't. And then we have a landing spot concerns, which I'm sure is on Silva's mind here also.
33:37So, Silva, I'll let you go ahead on Carnell Tate as the worst pick in round seven.
33:43I just think it's going to be another really long year in Tennessee.
33:47And behind the worst offensive line in the NFL with a quarterback that is still fledgling and struggling in Cam Ward.
33:54I just don't know how they're going to get the ball downfield to Carnell Tate.
33:59And that is his bread and butter. Carnell Tate was a vertical receiver at Ohio State despite having 4-5 speed, which is
34:06another little bit of a concern for the transition, the translation of Carnell Tate from being a vertical wide receiver in college
34:13to, you know, is he going to play, is he going to be functional in the vertical passing game in Tennessee?
34:20I don't know that Tennessee has the makings of a team that can support a vertical receiver.
34:25I think that Wondell Robinson is going to outscore Carnell Tate this year.
34:30And I think that Brian Dable might get exposed as a guy who was just riding Josh Allen's coattails in Buffalo.
34:37And that's why we got excited about him. He didn't do a very good job.
34:41He did a good job the first year with the Giants.
34:45And it really plateaued and even went downhill. And I just do not have good vibes about anything that's going on in
34:52Tennessee outside of maybe Wondell Robinson at this point.
34:55Yeah. I mean, from a target earning perspective, Wondell Robinson is a target earner for sure.
35:00Calvin Ridley can be a target earner. You know, Io Minora, I thought, flashed at least a little bit last year.
35:07Gunner Helm, it's not like Carnell Tate has to be a focal point for this team.
35:13So it is tough being out on the number four overall pick when he's going this late, you know, round seven in drafts.
35:20But I do think it's right. All right. Round eight here, Evan.
35:24Last round we're going to do today. I'll go first.
35:27I believe we have different guys for this one.
35:30Worst pick in round eight for me is Cortland Sutton.
35:33We know what Cortland Sutton is at this point.
35:36He is 30 years old. He'll be 31 in October.
35:40He's never had more than 1,100 yards in a season.
35:43The Broncos make this huge play to bring in Jalen Waddell.
35:47They can't stop raving about Pat Bryant. I know they have some stuff for Evan Ingram in the passing game and RJ Harvey.
35:54Marvin Mims gets some gadget stuff. My point is that when you are a secondary piece in a Sean Payton offense, you
36:01can easily just get lost in the mix. So while I think Sutton will probably be okay, I'd rather take a bigger swing in this range.
36:10You know, maybe that's Marshawn Lloyd. Maybe that's Jaden Reed or Matthew Goldman a little bit later.
36:15Maybe it's an injury gamble on George Kittle or something like that.
36:19I just don't think Sutton will ever be a really big hit here at this cost in round eight.
36:26That is my worst pick. Corlin Sutton, Evan, any thoughts on that?
36:29And then go ahead with your worst pick in round eight.
36:33Yeah, so the Broncos gave up a first and a third for Jalen Waddell.
36:38He's going to be the clear number one. And then it's just a mishmash of dudes that they can play.
36:44Like, they have a lot of playable wide receivers.
36:47After him, I'm worried that this is going to be a big rotation of Cortland Sutton, Pat Bryant coming into the slot in three receiver sets.
36:56Sean Payton has always had an affinity for little Jordan Humphrey.
36:59He'll be in there for, you know, 10 to 15 snaps a game.
37:03And Marvin Mims, I mean, he's shown that he's not a full-time receiver.
37:08But, God, he's got explosiveness. You know, he's always been a big-time yards-per-route-run merchant.
37:12And, I mean, he's going to get some playing time because he's really, really good with the ball in his hands.
37:19And Troy Franklin is still around with the shower narrative with Bo Nix.
37:23So, I think that they could scale back Cortland Sutton's role this year.
37:28And, yeah, definitely not taking him. I don't even think I'd take him in, like, the 10th round.
37:34I think I've got him. I'm down to him in, like, the 130s.
37:38Don't want Cortland Sutton this season at all. Well, Chuba Hubbard, for me, and I just don't get what the point is.
37:45I don't get what the point is of drafting a running back with an obviously limited ceiling in a committee on a
37:52team that's probably going to be one of the worst in the NFL offensively, missing both of their starting offensive tackles.
37:59I just don't see the point in drafting Chuba Hubbard at all.
38:03Just doesn't – he's not going to help you win.
38:06And that's what we're trying to do, even in the 8th round, where it gets tougher to find guys who, you know, can help you win.
38:15And, yeah, Chuba Hubbard might give you, I don't know, 11 to 14 touches a game.
38:20You know, I mean, he's not going to help you.
38:23So, I just – I don't know what the point is of drafting Chuba Hubbard.
38:28Yeah, we should address that there was some news around Jonathan Brooks this week.
38:33He sat out back-to-back days of practice due to soreness.
38:36They would not identify where the soreness was. Everybody assumes it was the knee.
38:41Beat writers and coaches are saying, oh, we just – we were leaning on Jonathan Brooks a lot.
38:47It was just rest. He's going to be back.
38:49He's fine for week one. So, I believe them.
38:52You know, I think Jonathan Brooks – I do too.
38:56Chuba was out for a while. Chuba missed like – So, Brooks had to take on more of the load.
39:02Exactly. Chuba missed like three or four weeks with that hamstring thing.
39:06So, yeah, I think Brooks will be in there.
39:09I think it'll be close to 50-50 to start.
39:12And then it'll be – who can earn it?
39:15You know, who can earn more of the work?
39:18But I think most likely something around 50-50 makes sense.
39:21Obviously, in the Panthers' offense, that is tough to get excited about.
39:25All right. That is going to do it for our worst picks in each of the first eight rounds of fantasy football drafts.
39:33Really appreciate everyone who has tuned in all offseason.
39:36Huge, huge good luck in your drafts. I know I joke a lot about, you know, not smoking or not drinking, taking it seriously.
39:43Obviously, it's for fun. Get out there. Get out there and win.
39:47If you want to stick with us, check out the in-season product.
39:51If you want to support the show, best way to do that is just pick up the draft kit.
39:58It's $54.99. Helps us bring you shows like this for free each and every offseason.
40:02But it's been a great offseason. Honestly, I feel like it was one of our best in terms of shows and graphics.
40:10And so, shout out to everyone on the YouTube team.
40:13Producer Luke, Producer Ryan did an incredible job on the audio and video side as well.
40:18So, thank you. Thank you. Thank you to everyone for watching all offseason.
40:22We will be back, though, with some shows. Survivor Show coming up.
40:26We have a ton more Survivor coverage coming this year in in-season product.
40:31And How to Beat DFS Tournaments in 2026. Myself, Brat, and Dink are recording that soon.
40:36Stay tuned for that here on the free YouTube side.
40:39For Evan, Producer Luke, Producer Ryan, I am Adam.
40:42Good luck, everybody.
