0:00and welcome to Episode 1014 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:03My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, as always joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva.
0:10And we are embarking on arguably the biggest drafting weekend of the entire year.
0:15It is time for final exams. Evan, how's it going today?
0:18We are also embarking on one of our most actionable, useful podcasts that we do leading up to drafts every season.
0:25I think that last year we had some huge, huge hits on this very show that help people win their leagues.
0:32So hopefully we can bring that back again. More importantly, for anyone on Twitter, the king himself, Evan Silva, hath returned to the Twitter streets as promised.
0:41Yes, be sure you're following him at Evan Silva.
0:43Some of you younger people, I don't think you guys really understand how much Silva dominated fantasy Twitter from, I don't know,
0:512009 or 2008 until whenever he retired from Twitter because the Laundry Bros put him into retirement.
0:56We're not going to let the Laundry Bros get him down this year.
1:00Fantasy people are welcome to reply to Evan's tweets.
1:03Laundry Bros are not welcome to reply to Evan's tweets.
1:06So again, he is tweeting. Be sure you're following him at Evan Silva.
1:11On today's show, we will go round by round through the first eight rounds discussing our favorite pick in each.
1:17This is aimed at half PPR redraft formats. Obviously, we won't get all the player rounds exactly right.
1:23We are doing our best to mimic where we think guys are likeliest to go in your league.
1:29Speaking of which, if I had a draft coming up, here's what I would do.
1:33First, I wouldn't drink for at least 72 hours before my draft.
1:37I wouldn't smoke for at least 48 hours before my draft.
1:41I would buy the ETR draft kit for just $54.99.
1:44I would consume as many articles as I could.
1:47If I had a live draft, I would print out the ranks like a man and scratch the tiered names off with a pen.
1:55If I had an online draft, I'd use the ETR extension to get our ranks into the applets.
2:00Then during the season, I'd use Thorman's ranks, Dago's waiver wire, and then I'd come back in January at the full 3.9 inches to collect my winnings.
2:09Very easy game. Again, that is the draft kit on establishtherun.com.
2:13By the way, in all seriousness, I actually can't believe that Silva begged for subscribes on our free YouTube page a couple weeks ago.
2:20What he meant to do, and allow me to correct him here, what he meant to do is beg for subscribes on our NFL draft kit and bundle.
2:29So there you go. All right. Let's get into it here, Evan, with our perfect draft.
2:35Round by round, perfect draft. I'll let you start here, Evan.
2:38In round one, who is your perfect pick? Well, I am all in on the Lions offense this year.
2:44So I actually have two. I wanted to have a contingent one because you have to get the first overall pick to get Jameer Gibbs.
2:52I think he's in a tier onto his own.
2:55I think that this can be a historic season.
2:58The offensive line is looking better in Detroit than it was last year.
3:02The offensive line was a big problem, and the defense is looking worse.
3:07And I also really like the addition of Drew Petsing, who is – it sounds like he's leaving the offense up to
3:14Jared Goff, which by all means, leave it up to Jared Goff.
3:17Don't hand over the offense like they did in the first half of the season to John Morton.
3:23That wound up being a disaster. I like the hands that the offense are in Detroit.
3:28Obviously, we've got all the games in the dome, the defense in the decline, and the improvement on the offensive line.
3:35Jameer Gibbs, obviously no David Montgomery. I mean, the ceiling is just massive, massive, massive.
3:40My second favorite first-round pick is Amon Ross St.
3:43Brown, obviously on the same team. Again, all in on the Lions.
3:47Super solid every single year with, I think, underrated ceiling.
3:50Because he's a slot receiver who isn't maybe quite as flashy as Jamar Chase, maybe not quite as flashy as Puka Nakua,
3:57but he can score right with those guys. Massive floor, massive upside.
4:01Love Amon Ross St. Brown. I actually think that this could be Amon Ross St.
4:06Brown's best season because of the offensive environment, which I think is actually improving, certainly on last year.
4:12Yeah, so we haven't talked about Amon Ross that much in this lead-up to this season.
4:17Very, very safe. I think, as Evan said, the knock on him is people think his ceiling is not as big.
4:24One thing that I wanted to note about the Amon Ross stuff, they have not had a wide receiver three emerge as a target earner.
4:32The Isaac Tesla stuff does not look great. And the other point that I wanted to make on Amon Ross' outlook this
4:39year, when Jameer Gibbs is your starting running back, you should be more likely to drop back at a higher rate.
4:45When Dave Montgomery's back there, you could have more base stuff.
4:49You could have more runs up the middle. You should be throwing more if Jameer Gibbs is out there more, period.
4:56And there was no offensive coordinator in the NFL that was more willing to drop his quarterback back to pass than was
5:03Drew Petsing in Arizona with Jacoby Brissett last year.
5:06Now he's got Jared Goff, the penultimate prototypical pocket passer.
5:09I mean, we're going to see a ton of pass attempts.
5:12And that's good for both Jameer Gibbs and Amon Ross St.
5:16Brown. All right. I like those. So my perfect pick for round one was the same as Silva.
5:22I think Jameer Gibbs is going to go absolutely nuclear this season.
5:26I legit cannot believe people were taking B. John Robinson over Gibbs for a while.
5:31Just to hone in on Silva's point about Dave Montgomery being gone, Dave Montgomery had the eighth most carries from inside the
5:38five-yard line last year and the fifth most carries from inside the five-yard line in 2024.
5:43I expect a large portion of those to go to Gibbs now.
5:47And it's not like he wasn't a touchdown scorer already.
5:50Even with Montgomery at the goal line, Gibbs scored 18 touchdowns in 2025 and 20 in 2024.
5:55You also got the Lions with the softest schedule in the NFL.
5:59Only the Rams and the Bills are implied for more points.
6:03So yeah, you know, when you say, where do you want to pick?
6:07Obviously, you have to pick one to get Gibbs.
6:10I could talk about structural stuff. Yes, it is easier to get those strong RB, RB heavy starts from the back of round one.
6:18But at the end of the day, the way we win in fantasy is by having the player or players who score an outrageous amount of points.
6:26And to me, that's clearly, clearly Gibbs. My backup for my favorite pick in round one was Puka Nakua.
6:32Averaging, I repeat, averaging 7.1 catches per game through his first three NFL seasons.
6:37The ability to earn targets is just wild. And you could argue he has less competition this year.
6:43I mean, they're playing tight ends as their wide receiver three.
6:46The data is so clear. More tight ends on the field.
6:50Better it is for the wide receivers that are on the field.
6:54You also have Devonta Adams, another year older. No viable wide receiver three.
6:58Puka is 25 years old. You have Stafford still the kingmaker.
7:01So I think there's like minor risk of maybe a one game suspension at some point for Puka.
7:07But I don't even think that's really a big risk.
7:10And I'm not worried about it at all. So I would be very happy to get Puka there at three or four overall in my draft.
7:19If Puka Nakua were to retire today, he would finish his career having averaged 95.3 receiving yards per game.
7:25That's the most in NFL history. As time has moved on and no suspension has come down, I think that lessens the
7:32risk of Puka Nakua facing any suspension. And I recently moved him back up to my number three overall player in my wide receiver one overall.
7:40I mean, from a straight statistical perspective, from a projection perspective, when we first did this, we could have made a case
7:47based on just a few tweaks that Puka should be the number one player in fantasy.
7:53Like his underlying stats, his projection for this year is so, so outrageous.
7:57In the projections, we have an idiot tax on him.
8:00Part of that idiot tax is, frankly, him acting like an idiot, either getting hurt or doing off-field stuff.
8:06You know, so we have him at four overall.
8:09But yeah, I think Puka easily could finish the number one fantasy player if Gibbs doesn't.
8:14All right, Silva. Let's go to round two. I fear, and by the way, Silva and I did not talk about this beforehand.
8:22We wanted to be surprised by each other's picks.
8:25So I fear we might have the same one here, Silva, but I'll let you go first.
8:30Well, you're going to want Kenneth Walker, right? That was my preferred, yes.
8:34But you can take him if you want. No, I'm not going to take him.
8:39Why don't you go ahead on Kenneth Walker? Okay.
8:42So my perfect pick in round two is Kenneth Walker.
8:45I actually think the Seahawks wanted to retain Kenneth Walker in free agency.
8:49But he did not want to return because he did not like that they refused to go full workhorse with him, aka played Zach Charbonnet, way too much.
8:58So based on that, I can only presume that the Chiefs did promise Kenneth Walker that full workload.
9:04And the camp reports have backed that up. Walker reportedly been everywhere at camp, screen game, base work, everything in between.
9:11People are going to knock that he's been banged up in his career at times.
9:16He's been a boom bust runner. I don't dispute that he's been banged up.
9:20Any workhorse is going to get banged up. What I do dispute is that boom bust is bad for fantasy.
9:27Like, I think it's good. That freak athleticism that yields big plays and creates outlier games, like, that's what I want.
9:33But even better for this setup, I think for Walker, is the whole cover two deep thing that defenses have been doing against Mahomes.
9:41If Kenneth Walker gets all these light boxes, he's just going to absolutely turbo smash.
9:46So really, really excited about both the workload, ability, and kind of matchup stuff for Kenneth Walker, my favorite pick in round two.
9:53Yeah, just some runners historically who have been considered boom or bust runners.
9:58Saquon Barkley, Chris Johnson, freaking Barry Sanders. So definitely not always a bad thing to be a boom or bust runner.
10:04And to your point that the Seahawks wanted to re-sign Kenneth Walker, I think there's no doubt about it.
10:10If you remember at the Super Bowl celebration, the Super Bowl parade, John Schneider talked about it during his speech.
10:17And then cameras zoomed to Kenneth Walker or John Schneider was talking, oh, yeah, now we've got to negotiate Kenneth Walker's next contract.
10:24And Kenneth Walker was like, well, I'm hitting free agency, you know.
10:28But yeah, I think the Seahawks wanted him back.
10:31And the Chiefs are going to love to have him.
10:34All right, let's hear your round two perfect pick, Silva.
10:38So Kenneth Walker is at the top of the round.
10:41And he was obviously my preferred pick as well in the second round.
10:45I think he belongs in the first round. So I went with a guy in Brock Bowers who will go in the
10:52middle to later part of the second round. And I think that this is a truly generational talent.
10:58Only generational talents win the Mackey Award twice. And he did it twice as an underclassman.
11:03He didn't even win as a senior because he wasn't in college as a senior.
11:08Only generational talents finish third in the NFL in receptions with 112 as a rookie.
11:13That's the most by any rookie regardless of position.
11:16Only generational talents, despite suffering PCL injuries in week one, which happened to Brock Bowers last season, still finish, despite that injury,
11:23as a top four fantasy tight end in points per game.
11:26Brock Bowers, by all accounts, is 100% healthy now in an offense run by Clint Kubiak, who we saw.
11:32And there's not a whole lot of other talent in the Raiders' skill position core other than, say, Ashton Gentry.
11:39But that was not a problem for Clint Kubiak's offense last year because he really only had JSN in that premier pass catcher role.
11:47There was really nobody competing with JSN for targets.
11:49And Clint Kubiak still found ways to get the ball to JSN relentlessly.
11:54I think that something similar could happen with Brock Bowers this year.
11:57I think that all bets are off as to Brock Bowers' ceiling, like 1,500 yards.
12:02If he stays healthy, over 100 catches easily. I'm so, so excited about Brock Bowers.
12:07And the quarterback upgrade, just the offensive environment upgrade.
12:10I feel good about Kirk Cousins and then the eventual transition to Fernando Mendoza.
12:15Yeah, totally agree. Love Bowers. You know, legit chance to break tight end records at the NFL.
12:20Did it in college, as Silva said. Broke records as a rookie in the NFL.
12:25Last year was destroyed by the PCL injury. But man, if last year didn't get destroyed by the PCL, we could see
12:32Bowers have going in round one here this year.
12:35The point that I wanted to make on Bowers is structurally.
12:38Like, I think Bowers is going roughly right. His redraft ADP is around 22 overall.
12:43There are other tight ends in redraft ADP that are not going where I think they should go.
12:49And that, to me, is like a strategy point on Bowers and Loveland specifically.
12:54You can read more about that in my draft strategy article or in the exploiting the default rankings articles for Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo.
13:01Those are all up right now. But yeah, the tight end position, be sure you're very aware of ADP going into your draft.
13:09I think that's important there on the Bowers point.
13:12All right, Silva, let's go to round three. I give you the floor for your perfect pick in round three.
13:18Well, I have three options here. And two of them are very similar to me.
13:23I think that Chris Olave and Nico Collins are very, very similar.
13:27And I love both of those guys. Nico Collins' ADP is actually higher than Chris Olave right now.
13:32And I'm not sure that I agree with that.
13:35I mean, according to my rankings, I definitely don't agree with that.
13:39But either of those guys I feel great about as round three picks at wide receiver.
13:44But the guy that I'm going to tab here is Javante Williams, who is often available closer to that third slash fourth round turn.
13:52I think that he is the beneficiary. A lot of people are talking about, oh, Jaden Blue is faded.
13:58Maybe Malik Davis could be the Cowboys' number two back.
14:01Oh, Phil Maffa is still there. The beneficiary from this is Javante Williams, who I think is going to have one of
14:09the highest usage rates of any running back in the NFL this year.
14:13Brandon Thorne has the Cowboys with a top eight offensive line.
14:16So much stability coming from Dak Prescott, who has, you know, he was more of a running quarterback earlier in his career.
14:23He's a true pocket passer, a field general at this stage of his career.
14:28Even though Javante Williams is not efficient as a receiver, I think he still has a chance to catch 50 passes and score 12-plus touchdowns.
14:36Javante Williams, to me, you know, as safe as running backs can be, you know, without including the risk of injury, I
14:43think that he's got a really high floor and a really high ceiling because of his touchdown equity.
14:49Yeah. People are going to say that Javante is not talented enough to sustain the pass-catching role all season.
14:55I don't think Jaden Blue and Malik Davis and Phil Mafa are really going to push him, you know?
15:01And so it's hard to really poke holes in that.
15:04Like Evan said, he might not be the most efficient, but he might be the guy that's out there.
15:10And so in these drafts, if you want to start two running backs in your first three picks, there are options in round three.
15:18Evan mentioned Javante Williams as his. I had as one of my options, Brees Hall there as well as a round three
15:25pick if you don't start RB RB. However, if you do start RB RB, I'm going to go back to one that
15:32Silva mentioned for my perfect pick in round three, and that's Chris Alave.
15:37Simply one of the best wide receivers in the NFL on a per-round basis.
15:41We talked about him last year a ton. We got a huge discount on him last year because of the concussions.
15:48We're paying closer to full price here this year in round three, I think.
15:52But I do think the upside is here. I mean, remember, the Saints started last season with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, and Alave was just kind of meh.
16:01Then Tyler Shuck gets in there, and Alave goes berserk.
16:05Now, that was against a very soft schedule, but the setup this year is so clean, you know?
16:10Offensive line is going to be much better. David Edwards they got.
16:14Eric McCoy's back from injury. Kellen Moore's a lock to play fast.
16:18The schedule is very good. They get 10 dome games.
16:21Speaking of shootouts, like pass rush, corner play is shaky.
16:25So, and then you added the Jordan Tyson injury also, which, you know, I don't want to say it helps Alave, but
16:32it might, you know, he might get 30, 35 percent of the targets in a single game.
16:37So, Alave is probably my most exciting pick in round three.
16:41If I was going to go running back, it would probably be Brees over Javante for me, but I have no problem with either.
16:48Any more thoughts on Brees, Evan Brees versus Javante for you?
16:52I have Javante slightly ahead. I think I have Javante at RB11 and Brees Hall at RB13, and that's just almost entirely,
16:59I actually think that Brees Hall is more talented straight up.
17:03Certainly better in the passing game, much more efficient in the passing game.
17:07Just the offensive environment, you know? So, banking on that with Javante Williams in Dallas versus Frank Reich, you know, overseeing the offense with the Jets.
17:15Yeah, there was a quote from Frank Reich today that kind of is making the rounds where he said, we're going to have a lot of guys contribute.
17:24Basically, I'm paraphrasing. We're going to have a lot of guys contribute, but Brees Hall and Garrett Wilson are our bell cows.
17:31And I believe him on that. You know, I think the offense is going to run through those two guys in a huge way.
17:39Can the offense be efficient with Geno? Obviously, I hope that we're not sitting here in week six and being like, well, Geno torpedoed another offense.
17:47You know, I hope that's not the case. I don't think it will be, but I hope it's not.
17:53Let's go to round four here, Evan. Go ahead.
17:56So, I have a wide receiver and a running back selected here.
18:00I think I know who you might go with.
18:03So, I'm going to go with the guy I think that you will not go with.
18:08Well, I don't have a backup here, so let me – All right, go ahead.
18:13I'll say mine, and if it's not, you can go.
18:16The one I have down for my perfect pick in round four is Lad McConkie.
18:21Is that who you have? Oh, my God. That's one of the guys that I have, but it's not the guy that
18:28I thought you were going to pick. So, go ahead on Lad McConkie.
18:32Okay. Perfect pick in round four for me is Lad McConkie.
18:36There are – I don't want to get like too bogged down on Lad McConkie.
18:41The big point that I want to make is the wide receivers in this range.
18:46I could have gone with Egbuka or Waddle or T.
18:49Higgins or Zay Flowers or Devonta Smith. I'm really happy with any of them.
18:53The one that I'm highlighting is McConkie because I do not want to overthink this too hard.
18:59Two big things on Lad. First, we go from this like boomer-ish Harbaugh Roman scheme to the borderline nuts with Mike McDaniel.
19:06I know people like to make fun of my brother Mike McDaniel.
19:10You know, oh, he looks and talks like Levitan.
19:13He's not a football guy. You know, he's overrated.
19:16Come on. Even with what's left of Tua, he had A-chan and Tyreek and Waddle cooking.
19:21The EPA per play stuff, if you separate it out by play call, is extremely strong.
19:26The McDaniel scheme is about getting your fast guys the ball in a place where they can do things after the catch.
19:33I think that fits McConkie really nicely. So I want wide receiver here in this round four range is my big point.
19:40Second point on Lad specifically though, Keenan Allen is gone.
19:43And yeah, it scares me a little bit that McConkie wasn't great on his targets last season.
19:49But he also just didn't get enough targets. And didn't get enough targets in the right spots.
19:54Because Keenan was soaking up so much volume as he seemingly always does.
19:58So with Keenan gone, slot roll open more, expecting more tight ends on the field, which is good for Lad.
20:05And I just don't think that Quentin Johnston's that good.
20:08So Lad for me there in round four. I think it's an easy one.
20:13You know, Lad McConkie is a really, really easy one.
20:16It's almost too easy. It's just going to come down to health, which has been an issue for Lad McConkie.
20:22It was an issue for him last year. He played the entire season banged up.
20:27And it was an issue for him in college.
20:30That's really the only red flag that I could come up with on Lad McConkie.
20:35I think it's easy. So you took him. My other guy was a running back, Travis Etienne.
20:40And I know that you're really high on him as well.
20:44And the Alvin Kamara injury, I think, is overlooked as having a really positive impact on Travis Etienne.
20:50Because Alvin Kamara, you don't want to give him the ball a lot.
20:54You certainly don't want to give him the ball between the tackles.
20:58But you might have been able to justify giving him the ball in passing situations and near the goal line.
21:04And those are, I don't want to say weaknesses of Travis Etienne.
21:08But he did lose his goal line role to Basial Tootin last year.
21:12And film watchers have always had something against Travis Etienne in the passing game.
21:17So, but he's going to get all that now.
21:20And he's going to play on the fast track.
21:23He's going to play in this offense that we have really, really high hopes for.
21:27By the way, Tyler Shuck started out training camp not performing particularly well.
21:32Actually, at one point, Nick Underhill was mentioning that maybe Spencer Rattler was outperforming him.
21:36That all has changed. Tyler Shuck has been cooking.
21:39That's good news for Travis Etienne, as is the quote-unquote loss of Alvin Kamara.
21:44I mean, the Saints are not going to be incentivized to give the ball to any of their remaining running backs with
21:51Alvin Kamara out of the picture indefinitely. Another high floor, high upside selection, Travis Etienne in the fourth round.
21:57Yeah. I mean, one of the early moves in free agency was Travis Etienne four years, 47 million.
22:03That's a lot of money for a running back.
22:06And to Evan's point about Kamara, I think they wanted Kamara gone.
22:10I really do. And they just like kind of mercifully brought him back.
22:14Another sign they might want to go full workhorse.
22:17They've also had a ton of other injuries in their backfield, not just Kamara.
22:21They're down to Kendrick Miller right now as their only healthy backup behind Travis Etienne.
22:26All right. Round five. I'm going to go first here because I, again, fear that we have the same guy and I need to take this guy.
22:35I need to take him. Round five. Perfect pick for me would be Luther Burden.
22:40I know all the arguments you can make against Burden.
22:43Adam, you're extrapolating a small sample from last year.
22:46He can't sustain it. He has a groin injury now.
22:49He might not play every snap. All that stuff is just noise.
22:53I don't often or really ever. Well, I don't often cite the eye test when I'm talking about players.
22:59It is impossible to watch Luther Burden and not think that he's different.
23:03And it like the Bears just keep saying it.
23:06I mean, Ben Johnson can't stop. He said he's buying Luther Burden stock right now.
23:11He compared Luther Burden to Monra St. Brown. He's talked up his root expansion as well.
23:16So Ben Johnson inherited DJ Moore and Roma Dunze.
23:19He drafted Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. DJ Moore is gone.
23:22One, the ones that I want to bet on are Luther Burden and Colston Loveland.
23:27And the last point is just, you know, I know Evans talked about this.
23:32The Bears defense. I mean, definitely past them being a bottom five defense in the league, leading to a bunch of shootout spots.
23:39And then at the same time, Ben Johnson saying he wants to break the record for the most points in NFL season.
23:46You don't break the record for most points in NFL season by taking your foot off the gas in the pass game at any point.
23:54So I know these running back heavy starts that lead me into things like Lad and Luther and Alave just feel so good.
24:02I'm really excited about Luther Burden this year. Evan, I know he was probably on your list here as well in round five.
24:09So I was not ignoring you there. And also I was not eating.
24:13The YouTube commenters continually accuse me of eating during shows.
24:16I chew focus gum. Okay. It's to keep my focus because I'm often accused of ignoring Adam.
24:22I was not ignoring you. But did you mention there that Luther Burden returned to practice today?
24:27Yes. We are recording this on Wednesday, August 26th.
24:30I did not actually mention. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss it if you said it.
24:36Back in practice today doing some individual stuff was Luther Burden.
24:40You know, we never really put a doc on him and sounds like he'll be good for week one.
24:46Yeah. I never put a doc on him either, but the focus gum, it works.
24:51And that was going to be my pick as well, as you well know.
24:55So I will go with my backup then. And that is Terry McLaurin.
25:00Now, there are some red flags on Terry McLaurin.
25:03You know, he's 30 years old. I hate the loss of Laramie Tunsil for the Washington offense.
25:08But man, Jaden Daniels didn't have Laramie Tunsil in his 2024 rookie year when he finished as the quarterback five overall.
25:15And when Terry McLaurin had the best season of his career.
25:18And I love banking on that connection to be revitalized this season.
25:22Terry McLaurin has always been a really, really good player.
25:25There's a reason that he goes in the fifth round.
25:29It's because of those red flags that I mentioned at the top.
25:33But he's a great value in the fifth round.
25:35Playing in an offense that I think will be certainly coordinated better under David Blau than it was under Cliff Kingsbury with the return of Jaden Daniels.
25:44I mean, a locked-in number one receiver. However, I think that this is another easy one.
25:49Probably not the ceiling of Lad McConkie, but for safety.
25:52And plenty of ceiling in his own right, Terry McLaurin, in the fifth round.
25:57Yeah. So, people are going to have concerns. I think, Evan.
26:01A on the Tunsil thing. B on McLaurin age.
26:03C on Stephon Diggs' ability to earn targets. Here, his ADP has gone from kind of early 40s to kind of mid-50s.
26:11He's now on McLaurin since the Diggs signing and the Tunsil injury.
26:14So, McLaurin is... I like him. He's... I don't think I like him as much as Evan does through here.
26:21Like, Christian Watson's not on my list, but I assume you prefer McLaurin to someone like Christian Watson?
26:27Yeah, for safety. Yeah. I am huge on Christian Watson, though.
26:30Yeah. Actually, Christian Watson is my sixth round guy.
26:33Okay. That's called a teaser. Okay. Perfect. Okay. So, that we covered round five.
26:38Round six. I'll go first year in round six.
26:40Christian Watson is not mine. So, I want to be clear here.
26:44This is very price specific. But for round six, I did have Jaden Daniels.
26:49And I could have gone with Jalen Hurts. I could have gone with Drake May also.
26:54I want to make the point, though, that it is an extremely deep quarterback group in fantasy this year.
27:00Extremely deep. And it's a really good year for late round quarterback.
27:04But if any of that trio, Daniels, Hurts, or May, are available in this late round six range, it's a really tough pass for me.
27:12On Daniels specifically, ran for 891 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie while completing 69% of his passes.
27:18And didn't really have that much talent around him.
27:21Maybe he ran hot that year. Maybe that's the best we'll ever see of Jaden Daniels.
27:26But I want to find out. Because he had Steph Diggs.
27:30He had Chica Conquo. He has Terry McLaurin actually moving around the formation now.
27:34You know, to Evan's point, Kingsbury had McLaurin sitting in just one spot.
27:38He's going to move all over the formation now.
27:41Jaden was so banged up last year. You know, if you watch that quarterback show, it was really bad.
27:48I mean, multiple left elbow injuries. A knee sprain.
27:50A hamstring strain. The whole season was just a mess.
27:54If Jaden Daniels had been able to sustain health last year, where would he be going?
27:59Like around Lamar. So I think a pretty good discount here.
28:02I just, again, want to be clear. I'm not forcing quarterback here if these guys aren't coming to me.
28:08There's just so many quarterbacks later that I like that I'll touch on.
28:13But yeah, it's just really late for these dual threat quarterbacks like Jaden and May and Hurts, in my opinion.
28:19The position-specific stuff would be the only pushback that I would have against Jaden Daniels in the sixth round because Christian Watson goes in the sixth round.
28:28Because Mike Evans goes in the sixth round. Because oftentimes, Jamison Williams will last until the sixth round.
28:34And those were all guys that I have on my sixth round target.
28:38I actually wound up not even putting any quarterbacks in any of these rounds.
28:42But Jaden Daniels, absolutely. To your point, like, if he had stayed healthy, yes.
28:47Absolutely. He could be being drafted ahead of Lamar Jackson.
28:50I mean, he's considerably younger. If Jaden Daniels had stayed healthy last year going ahead of Lamar Jackson, that would be certainly in play.
28:58All right. Let's hear it on your sixth round pick, which I believe is Christian Watson.
29:03Yeah. I mean, I got three guys here. Christian Watson, Mike Evans, and Jamison Williams.
29:08Jamison Williams, we already talked about just investing in the Lions offense this year.
29:12Jamison Williams is a huge part of that. We saw what he did in the second half of last season when we had some competence at play caller.
29:21The Lions are going to be throwing the cover off the ball.
29:25You know, don't worry about any kind of volume concerns for Jamison Williams.
29:29There's going to be plenty of volume. I think the arrow is still pointing up on his trajectory in his career.
29:36The arrow, well, the Packers are certainly banking on the trajectory of Christian Watson's career because they gave him a lot of money.
29:43And he's never even come close to even so much as having 1,000 yards in a season.
29:49But we saw what he was able to do coming off a horrific injury last season.
29:54Jumps right in the lineup. They start using him as a true number one receiver.
29:59I mean, it was visible watching Packers games, how they were moving Christian Watson around, not just isolating him out at X receiver.
30:06Like, he was playing all over the formation. They paid him to be a number one receiver.
30:12He's going to be that this year in an offense that I think we all kind of agree is going to be
30:19more focused around the pass and around Christian Watson.
30:22No more five-man weaves at wide receiver. We're going to get three receivers out there consistently.
30:27Jaden Reed, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden. All that is going to work to his benefit.
30:32And then Mike Evans, whose ADP has absolutely plummeted over the course of training camp.
30:37I actually had to move him down in my rankings last night just to react to the market.
30:42I mean, I can't have a guy essentially valued, you know, at the end of the 30s when he's creeping toward the 60s in his ADP.
30:51I mean, it's just – it becomes a little irresponsible at some point.
30:55So I moved down Mike Evans. I'm still comfortably ahead of his ADP, and I want Mike Evans because, I mean, he's
31:02going to get really good quarterback play in a great offensive environment under Kyle Shanahan.
31:07You know, Kyle Shanahan, every single year of his career as a coach, whether it be as an assistant back in Washington,
31:14he's made the most of the players that he has had.
31:18And I think that this can be a big year for Mike Evans if he stays healthy.
31:23I understand why his ADP has gone down because he hasn't stayed healthy throughout training camp, the longest training camp in league history.
31:30Yeah. It's hard for me to tell whether Mike Evans is actually hurt during this camp or if he's just like, I'm 33 years old.
31:38I'm one of the best wide receivers ever. I'm just going to rest, you know, and I'm not going to – I'm
31:46going to pull myself out of practice. Honestly, with his price, you're going to say I'm crazy.
31:51I think people are scared of the substation. I think they hear about all the injuries Mike Evans has had and they
31:58believe the substation stuff, which I'm not even saying is right or wrong.
32:02But, like, they don't want to click Mike Evans.
32:05And his ADP, like Evans said, has been plumbing.
32:08You can get him in the 60s now pretty comfortably, pretty regularly there on Mike Evans.
32:13All right. Let's go to round seven. I think this one might surprise Evan.
32:18I'm not sure, but my perfect pick in round seven is Parker Washington.
32:22The important note for me on Parker Washington is that he is playing the slot in three wide receiver sets and he's
32:29staying on the field in two wide receiver sets.
32:32That role has been extremely productive in Liam Cohen schemes historically.
32:36The other big note for me that happened this camp is that we found out Travis Hunter is exclusively practicing at the X spot.
32:43If slash when Travis Hunter comes on the field, I expect it to be at the cost of Brian Thomas Jr., not Parker Washington.
32:51So I can make a case that Parker Washington is the clear wide receiver one for a passing offense, which closed last
32:58season on a tear and is now going into their second year with Cohen on the sticks.
33:04It's just late, you know, it's late to be able to get a player in this role with this quarterback play.
33:10Even if you think last season was a bit fluky relative to Parker Washington's talent and also shout out Penn State.
33:17So, yeah, you know, I think Parker Washington is going to go all over the place in redraft leagues.
33:23I could see people taking him in round five.
33:26I could see people being like, this guy sucks.
33:29He's not a great prospect. He's not going to go until round eight or nine.
33:34So I think if you can get him in round seven, I think that's a really good deal on Parker Washington.
33:41I think he's a button smash in the seventh round.
33:44All right. Absolutely. He's a guy that I started off kind of being like, I don't know how to rank them.
33:51There's four receivers here. There's two tight ends that they could play, you know, and his training camp is per guy.
33:57I wound up just kind of taking a stand on Parker Washington, having him inside my top 30 receivers, separating him from Brian Thomas.
34:05And I started getting him in my own drafts and I feel really good about that.
34:10And I also agree that he could go anywhere in the fifth round.
34:14And if he creeps into the seven, button smash.
34:17Yeah. So my seventh round options here were J.K.
34:20Dobbins and Chris Godwin, both kind of gross, but that's why they go in the seventh round.
34:26I'm going to focus on J.K. Dobbins here. I think that one thing that kind of people lose sight of is that J.K.
34:33Dobbins, because, you know, the injury history and R.J.
34:36Harvey and Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins is really, really freaking good.
34:405.2 yards per carry average in his career. He was at 5.1 last year.
34:44He can pass block. So he's going to play a ton of snaps because the Broncos trust him.
34:50I don't think that he has a ton of ceiling.
34:53If he got 40 catches, it would be a huge, huge win.
34:57And obviously the injury history. But the Broncos have the best offensive line in football.
35:02They have a top three to top five defense.
35:05What that combination gives you is like great field position.
35:08And I mean, because teams are not going to move the ball on them consistently and they're going to be able to impose their will offensively with J.K.
35:17Dobbins as their clear cut lead back. Before he went down last year, J.K.
35:21Dobbins was averaging 16.2 touches per game. I think that R.J.
35:25Harvey is pretty clearly a niche back, a changeup type.
35:28I really like Jonah Coleman as a later round pick.
35:31I'm doing a sleepers article right now. And Jonah Coleman is very near the top of the list in terms of my sleepers.
35:39But J.K. Dobbins is the clear lead back when all these dudes are healthy.
35:43And I think for as long as he lasts, he's going to be a guy that you can start every week in redraft.
35:51So the pushback on Dobbins is going to be the pass game stuff, you know, and beyond the injury stuff.
35:57J.K. Dobbins only caught 11 passes in the 10 games that he played last season with Bo Nix.
36:03So it's hard to find, I think, like the huge ceilings on J.K.
36:07Dobbins. But to Evan's point, he has been a incredible rusher of the football.
36:12And I think they want him to be in that role.
36:15The other question that I think people are going to have is, yes, J.K.
36:20Dobbins has been incredible. At what point do the injuries catch up?
36:24He has had so many severe injuries. Will he continue to be as efficient as he's been historically off yet another serious injury?
36:31I mean, it's crazy. This guy is like the bionic man.
36:35But at some point, it's just going to run out for him.
36:38But yeah, I think it's a little high for me on J.K.
36:42Dobbins, but I don't dislike him, you know. I should say Chris Godwin right now is the most stable of the Bucs pass catchers.
36:50Yeah, K. Dodden, we know he's going to be on the field a lot.
36:55Really, really low targets per route throughout his career.
36:57Emeka Egbuka has the toe injury. Jalen McMillan has been banged up and getting pushed by Ted Hurst.
37:03Chris Godwin is not a super sexy click at this stage of his career.
37:08Unfortunately, but this is the healthiest he's been in a long time.
37:12And his role is very, very stable. So for a non-sexy pick in the seventh round, Chris Godwin I like.
37:18Yeah, if Chris Godwin is himself, he's going to smash.
37:21You know, he is set up so well if he's himself.
37:25I fear he's no longer the player that he once was.
37:28But that's why he's available this late, obviously. All right.
37:32Let's go to round eight. I am going to go with Jaden Reed as my perfect pick in round eight.
37:38Evan, I mentioned Christian Watson. Jaden Reed is entering his fourth NFL season.
37:42This is the cleanest setup of Jaden Reed's career.
37:45The Packers are extremely thin at tight end. Like all that Jaden, Jaden Reed needs to be on the field.
37:52He has not been on the field enough. This year though, the Packers are extremely thin at tight end.
37:58They paid Jaden Reed a $50 million contract in April.
38:01In other words, I'm expecting them to have the highest three wide receiver set rate in recent memory, the Packers.
38:07And then we also add in Dobbs is gone.
38:10Wicks is gone. The Packers can't, won't. I don't think they want to rotate their wide receivers as much.
38:16So he's going to be on the field a ton.
38:20And then we know Jaden Reed is a baller.
38:22Career 2.09 yards per route run. Over 129. Passive rating when thrown at.
38:27Just really strong in every advanced stat. So again, like the players that I like through this range.
38:32Like for me, Jaden Reed versus J.K. Dobbins. I would take Jaden Reed.
38:37And so like, that's why I'm more running back heavy early is because I want to be taking wide receivers here later.
38:44Like Christian Watson, who I really like. Like Jaden Reed and like all the other wide receivers that I've mentioned.
38:50So yeah, I know you're on this, Evan, because you were on Christian Watson.
38:55But any more thoughts on Reed? Then you can go with your perfect pick in round eight.
39:00I like all the Packers receivers this year. I mean, I like the offense as a whole.
39:06And it's gritting my teeth a little bit because I'm a little bit worried about the offensive line.
39:11But I also trust in Matt LaFleur. Matt LaFleur will be very, very cognizant of the fact that he's dealing with an
39:19offensive line that isn't as good as Packers offensive lines have been in years past.
39:23But yeah, Jordan Love, Jaden Reed, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Craft.
39:27I mean, I think that they're all pretty good values in fantasy as well.
39:32So I've wound up with a ton of them.
39:35And Jaden Reed is very, very near the top of the list.
39:39In the eighth round for me, I had three guys.
39:42We've talked a lot about Josh Downs. I mean, everybody's talked about Desjuan Stribbling.
39:46I'm going to go with Dalton Kincaid. And in a lot of drafts, you might not have to draft him in the eighth round.
39:54You might be able to get him in the ninth or tenth.
39:58But he's a player that I'm willing to reach for in the eighth round if I don't have a tight end, if
40:05there's been a run on tight ends. Dalton Kincaid is my breakout pick at the position this season.
40:11His yards per route run is elite, elite over the course of his career, really.
40:16It's just been his playing time. And I don't even think that Dalton Kincaid needs to be a true full-time tight end
40:23to realize his potential and to lead the Bills in receiving.
40:26I think he just needs a little bit of a bump.
40:30And his efficiency will turn into more volume. And he'll be a player that we can lean on week to week.
40:37And knock on wood, there have been no talk.
40:39There's been no talk of any injuries for Dalton Kincaid throughout training camp.
40:44I like DJ Moore okay. But I don't think at this stage of his career he's a player that is capable of jumping in and dominating targets.
40:52I think Dalton Kincaid could be that guy this year.
40:56So he's become one of my favorite tight ends to draft in the true middle rounds of fantasy leagues.
41:02Yeah, I like Kincaid a lot. You know, I thought maybe we could get him a little bit later than this round eight.
41:09But I'm not sure on that really depends on your league.
41:13And when you start to see the tier of Laporta, Kraft, Fannin, Pitts go.
41:17If all those guys start going early, that's when you know that you might have to get on Kincaid there a little bit earlier if you want him.
41:26I don't think Kincaid is going to suddenly get up to like 90 or 95% of the snaps.
41:32But if he can just play 70%, run 75% of the routes.
41:36Give me 65. That'd be great. And I think we're cooking.
41:39I mean, and based on what it's been like this whole offseason, I'm talking about going back to OTAs, minicamps, and now training camp.
41:47He has been extremely, extremely healthy. So that is for round eight.
41:51I had Jaden Reed. Silva had Dalton Kincaid. A bubble guy for me here I just wanted to mention was Stripling.
41:58The price could be all over the place on Stripling.
42:01Like I could see him going in round six or round seven.
42:05I would not do that. I could see Stripling going in round 10, 11, 12 too.
42:10Somewhere in between there, I want to take a swing on Stripling in this Jawan Jennings plus role.
42:16He's just so much of a better prospect and player and athlete than Jawan Jennings was.
42:21And then the real ceiling case for Stripling comes in if Christian McCaffrey or Mike Evans or Kittle goes down.
42:27So yeah, Stripling was like a borderline one for me.
42:31And then just for quarterbacks, I just wanted to mention Jared Goff.
42:34We've talked enough about the Lions stuff, but I think the Lions set up this year from a schedule opponent perspective.
42:41Yields a lot of outcomes where Jared Goff goes over 4,000 yards, maybe pushes for 5,000 yards and pushes for 40 touchdowns.
42:48So yeah, and like Gibbs is his running back now.
42:51I mean, even the screen passes are going to go for more than they did with Montgomery.
42:57And it's just such a great setup for Goff.
43:00I like platooning with him. So like Goff and Kyler or Goff and Baker or Goff and Malik Willis or Jordan Love
43:07or Nix or Purdy or whatever you want. That entire tier of quarterback is flat and strong.
43:12And like if you don't do what I said about the Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Jalen Hurts type stuff, two of these
43:20guys I think makes a lot of sense there at the quarterback position.
43:24All right. That's going to do it for our annual round by round favorite picks show.
43:29Appreciate everyone who has been tuning in all summer.
43:32It feels like we're reaching the end here of camp.
43:35But alas, we are not. The season still has another two weeks.
43:39So be sure you are subscribed. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
43:42The preseason still has another two weeks. So be sure you're subscribed here on YouTube.
43:47It is totally free. And if you have a draft coming up, check out DraftKit or the bundle on EstablishTheRun.com.
43:53There's so much in there. I'm not going to sit here and take the time to go through everything that is in DraftKit and in season.
44:02Go to the site. Check out the content schedules.
44:05Check out the content list. I guarantee something will catch your eye.
44:08For Evan, for producer Ryan, for producer Luke, I am Adam.
44:12Good luck, everybody.