0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1016 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, as always joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva
0:11and we are just nine short days away from week one.
0:14Truly makes you feel happy to be alive. Evan, how's it going today?
0:18Yeah, it's going well. All the preseason games are behind us.
0:22Final cuts are behind us. Fifty three-man rosters are largely set.
0:25So yeah, it's time to start writing the matchups article.
0:28Indeed it is. And we are getting set for our week one content as we get going here.
0:34Part of the in-season product, all the fantasy projections and everything that goes along with that for week one.
0:40Certainly exciting times. On today's show, we will be discussing what has happened at training camps and in preseason games over the
0:47last seven days and how we should be adjusting our fantasy rankings for that.
0:52We will also go over how all that has affected Silva's Top 150.
0:56If I had a draft coming up, here's what I would do.
1:00First, I wouldn't drink for at least 72 hours before my draft.
1:03I wouldn't smoke for at least 48 hours before my draft.
1:07I would buy the ETR draft kit for just $54.99.
1:10I would consume as many articles as I could.
1:13If I had a live draft, I would print out the ranks like a man and scratch the tiered names off with a pen.
1:21If I had an online draft, I'd use the ETR extension to get our ranks into the applets.
1:26Then during the season, I'd use Storm in his ranks, Daigle's waiver wire, and then I'd come back in January at the
1:33full 3.9 inches to collect my winnings. Very easy game.
1:37Again, that is the draft kit on establishtherun.com. All right, let's get into it here.
1:41Story number one comes from Green Bay. Josh Jacobs placed on the commissioner's exempt list.
1:46In other words, Jacobs will keep getting paid, but he is not eligible to practice or play while he is on this list.
1:53I think the thought here is that the NFL has conducted its own investigation, has possibly seen the video of the alleged
2:00domestic violence incident, and the rumor is that the video is so bad that the NFL is effectively taking justice into their own hands.
2:08In other words, Jacobs has only been charged with two misdemeanors, but the NFL knows it will look awful if the video
2:15comes out while Jacobs is playing for the Packers.
2:18So, Evan, I know you were already mega low Jacobs, mega high Lloyd, which is very, very, very good.
2:24What are your latest thoughts now that Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list?
2:29Yeah, and before this, I had already pulled out Josh Jacobs out of the top 150.
2:34I thought that he was not draftable, and now I don't think he's really, he's not a player that I'm trying to
2:41draft, even if people are like, oh, we could get him in the eighth or the ninth round.
2:46Like, I don't think so. Also, if the video comes out, it's going to be very hard for the Packers to justify having him on their team.
2:55You know, I think it's probably a coin flip at this point whether Josh Jacobs ever plays football again.
3:01And Marshawn Lloyd is a player that we have been high on throughout the process.
3:06I think he's my highest drafted running back in fantasy.
3:09I've been taking him since we started doing, you know, analysis for the 2026 fantasy football season.
3:14I think he's good. You know, he was a guy who ran 4-4-6 at 220 pounds coming out of USC.
3:21He averaged 7.1 yards per carry. His final season in college, 17.8 yards per reception.
3:26Actually, I was watching a clip of Daniel Jeremiah doing the draft analysis when the Packers picked Marshawn Lloyd, and Daniel Jeremiah compared him to DeAndre Swift.
3:34I'm really, really excited about Marshawn Lloyd. I have him up at 65 overall.
3:39So, if you're using the 150 and you haven't done your draft yet and you want to use those rankings, good chance you're going to get Marshawn Lloyd.
3:48I think that he settled in from a consensus standpoint, just from reading other rankers.
3:52I think that he's probably around like maybe pick 75 or 80.
3:56I'm up at 65. Yeah. So, I'll touch more on Jacobs in a second.
4:01I do want to go back to what Silva said about Marshawn Lloyd.
4:05So, Marshawn Lloyd has played in one game in his NFL career.
4:09Even in college, he had never had more than 129 touches in a season.
4:13The price that you have to pay for Marshawn Lloyd now, I think is going to be somewhere in the 70s or 80s.
4:20In the ETR ranks, we went to 72 overall on Marshawn Lloyd.
4:24The question I have with taking him that high, and believe me, you know, I like Marshawn Lloyd a ton.
4:31It felt amazing to get him in the 150s and 160s and 200s earlier.
4:35Now that it's peak redraft season, do we want to take him in the 70s or 80s, knowing his history and knowing that they traded for Caleb Johnson?
4:44I don't think this is a big deal, but this is the holes that people are going to poke in Marshawn Lloyd.
4:51By the way, on Caleb Johnson, Packers gave up a round six for him.
4:55The Steelers used a round three pick on Caleb Johnson.
4:59The Mike Tomlin, Arthur Smith regime hated Caleb Johnson, didn't play him.
5:02It was like a joke. Then a new regime comes in.
5:06It's like, oh, maybe the new regime will like Caleb Johnson.
5:09Mike McCarthy regime comes in. Caleb Johnson is behind some other undrafted free agents and other dust balls.
5:15They give him up to the Packers for a round six pick.
5:19So there's people out there that are going to say, Silva, Marshawn Lloyd cannot stay healthy.
5:24He's only ever had 129 touches in his season.
5:27Do you have any interest in Caleb Johnson or Chris Brooks, who I think is more of their pass protection back?
5:34Yeah, I think that Chris Brooks is like a one-trick pony pass protector.
5:38I don't think that the Packers are going to be trying to give him the ball very much.
5:44They are going to use him a decent amount, though.
5:47I mean, think of like a Samaj P. Ryan kind of role because I think that the Packers are going to end
5:54up throwing the ball a lot this season. We already had theorized that, and now that's accentuated by the fact that now
6:01the Packers are without their big-time grinding rusher and, as you mentioned, are going to have to turn to Marshawn Lloyd, a
6:08player with very, very limited rushing volume on his resume, even going back to college.
6:13So I think they're going to be a throw-first team.
6:16I think that the construct of the team at this point points – everything is pointing to the Packers throwing the ball 600-plus times this season.
6:24Also, the way their defense is constructed. I mean, I'm very excited about all the Packers wide receivers and Marshawn Lloyd.
6:31And I know that you've been on Jordan Love as well.
6:34Like, I'm really excited about those guys this season in fantasy.
6:38Yeah, and by the way, just quickly, Savion Williams did start on IR return.
6:42I mean, their top three receivers are locked, and they're going to throw more.
6:47We've been talking about that all offseason. I don't want to go back to that point.
6:52Just lastly on Marshawn Lloyd. The other risk besides Marshawn Lloyd that you get on health, and I think he's going to
6:59play well, the risks are health, and the other risk is standard suspension on domestic violence issues for the NFL is six games.
7:06Right? So let's say after six games, they say he served his time, he's off the exempt list.
7:12Then Josh Jacobs could come back. So, you know, I don't think that's likely.
7:16And I think the video – I mean, I assume TMZ or someone's going to get the video at some point.
7:23Maybe I'll be wrong. I don't know. But if the video doesn't come out and Jacobs served six games, I could see him coming back.
7:31So it's kind of like – I like Marshawn Lloyd where we have him.
7:35I think it's right, but it's definitely a wide range of outcomes.
7:39Like I would take Marshawn Lloyd over Jonathan Brooks now, and I think that's kind of the distinction where people have, and
7:46I do think Lloyd over Brooks makes sense. I didn't say anything about Caleb Johnson.
7:51Yes, go ahead. Caleb Johnson was a prolific rusher at the University of Iowa.
7:55Prolific. I mean, crazy statistics. Had 21 rushing touchdowns his final season there.
8:00Very limited receiving track record. Everybody's got a very limited receiving track record when they come out of Iowa.
8:06Ran 4.57 at 224 pounds. But as you mentioned, just has not been able to endear himself to coaching staffs, and I
8:13think that he's the clear number three in Green Bay right now because although, again, the Packers are not going to want
8:20to give Chris Brooks the football, he's definitely going to be ahead of Caleb Johnson.
8:24So I don't really even think that Caleb Johnson is a better stat, like a great stash at the end of your bench.
8:32I think that there are better stashes throughout the league.
8:35Guys that actually got affected a little bit by final cuts with Caleb Johnson.
8:39I think he's made, you know, if I were to extend my rankings, I think that he would be like maybe like
8:46in the 200s, maybe like the 210s or something.
8:49But, yeah, he's not even close to the 150.
8:52Agreed. You know, I wouldn't be drafting Caleb Johnson or Chris Brooks in most formats here.
8:57Maybe in some of the FFPC main event type stuff where you get 10 bench spots, maybe I could see it, but
9:04it'd still be a bit thin there for me.
9:07But, yeah, I'm excited about the Packers stuff that I have.
9:11You know, obviously really high on Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden, Jordan Love, and, you know, the health signs on Tucker Craft have been good.
9:19So, yeah, feel really good about that. All right.
9:22Story two, more legal stuff. You know, I'm so tired of this legal stuff, but Keenan Allen was arrested on a DUI type situation.
9:29Actually, I'm not sure it was DUI because he was actually parked when he got arrested, but whatever.
9:35At the same time, Alec Pierce came off the PUP list, returned to practice.
9:40First on Keenan Allen. So, the NFL will suspend players three games for a DUI.
9:44However, in these cases, the NFL almost always lets the case play out.
9:49In other words, Keenan Allen has not pled guilty to anything.
9:52He has a court date in a couple months that I'm sure his lawyers can get pushed back.
9:58So, it seems like the consensus out there right now is that this issue will not affect Keenan Allen for this year.
10:05He can plead to whatever he wants in the offseason and then maybe retire.
10:09We did put a one-game doc on Keenan Allen in the ETR ranks just for some risk while we kind of sort through this.
10:17But I kind of think he's going to be fine.
10:20Kevin Silva, any moves for you on the Keenan Allen DUI situation?
10:24No moves. Not anticipating any moves from the team.
10:27Not anticipating any suspension this year. Okay. At the same time, I mentioned the Alec Pierce thing.
10:32So, it was good to see Alec Pierce actually come off PUP and get back into practice.
10:38At least proof of life that he's out there running routes even if he's not in team drills yet.
10:44He was asked if he'll be ready for week one.
10:47He said that's the goal. Hopefully. You know, we're considering him 50-50 right now for week one.
10:52I really don't know. Now that we've seen Alec Pierce, Evan, any moves for you on that one?
10:58No moves there either. I think signs are pointing toward Alec Pierce and Josh Downs opening the season in two receiver sets.
11:05Josh Downs being given every opportunity to earn that role and to keep it.
11:10And then Keenan Allen coming in as a possession receiver in three receiver sets, at least to open the season.
11:16Yeah. One more note. And by the way, we're at 100 overall on Alec Pierce now in the ranks.
11:22Somewhat close to Josh Downs. I think our gap in the ETR ranks is a bit tighter.
11:27They're downs 92. Pierce 100 versus Silva's gap between those two guys.
11:31Last note on the Colts, there was some speculation that Seth McGowan and DJ Giddens were competing for one spot.
11:38Turns out both of them made the team. And I could see that making sense if something were to happen to Jonathan Taylor.
11:45And by the way, I think Jonathan Taylor is going to be like a pure three down back, play a ton of snaps.
11:52But in the event Jonathan Taylor got hurt, I think we'd see both these guys play.
11:57McGowan more of a base back. Giddens more of a passing back.
12:01But yeah, any final thoughts on Colts' backfield as we head to this season here, Silva?
12:06That's exactly how I would analyze it. Okay. Let's get to some good news.
12:11I'm tired of this legal nonsense bad news stuff.
12:14Good news. Luther Burden, according to Ben Johnson, looks 100% as he is back from his groin injury.
12:19Now Burden appears to be practicing in full. Ben Johnson made that comment.
12:23It was a full two weeks before the Bears open at Carolina in week one.
12:28So this is exciting, I would say. That one injury that I thought may have really been bad turns out it was
12:35the two to three week groin injury. He's totally fine.
12:38Evan, any final thoughts on Bears wide receiver here as we head to this season?
12:43Just super, super high on Luther Burden. He's up to 33rd overall for me.
12:48So if you're using the top 150, like you're probably going to get Luther Burden.
12:52Oh my God. 33rd overall. I didn't even realize Silva got that high.
12:57Yes. You will not have to take Luther Burden at 33rd overall in order to get him.
13:02But don't wait too long. Don't wait too long.
13:05Don't wait. Don't wait too long. Yes, indeed. All right.
13:08Let's go to story four. Falcons declined to name Tua Tugavailoa their starter after the preseason.
13:13Rapsheet said it's Tua's play that has made it quote unquote impossible for them to name Tua the starter.
13:19And then today, Monday, Schefter said that the Falcons still haven't made a decision on their week one quarterback.
13:25I mean, they have a game in like, I don't know, 13 days or something like that.
13:31And they still haven't named their week one quarterback.
13:34I'm not sure I've ever seen this before, Evan.
13:36But I guess it's possible that Tua was so bad.
13:40He lost a one man competition. This wasn't even a competition.
13:43Pennix didn't even play. It was a one man competition.
13:46And Tua still may have lost it. I don't know.
13:50What do you think about what the Falcons will and should do at quarterback year?
13:54Yeah, I mean, I guess assuming that Tua starts week one, it's just going to be a matter of time.
14:01I mean, it's just going to come down to health.
14:04How healthy is Michael Pennix? Because at the point at which the Falcons team doctors deem Michael Pennix healthy enough to start
14:11an NFL game, he's going to be under center.
14:14I mean, I think that that much has been clear.
14:17Also, Jack Strand is on the 53 for now.
14:20The Falcons actually are carrying four quarterbacks. Cooper Rush, Jack Strand behind Pennix and Tua for now.
14:25One thing I was thinking about, maybe we didn't hit it on enough.
14:29I believe we hit on it during the coaching change show, which I think everybody should go back and watch.
14:36But Kevin Stefanski, the way he uses tight ends kind of fits with the way Tua wants to play.
14:42In other words, Tua, the best thing he is good at is getting the ball out quickly and accurately.
14:48You know, just like quick dump offs that are accurate and let guys run after the catch.
14:53Stefanski did that with tight ends in Cleveland. I mean, David Njoku averaged 5.4 catches per game under Stefanski 2023 and 2024.
15:00Last year, he held Fannin four and a half catches per game.
15:04And I tweeted a clip from the preseason game that they had.
15:08It was just Tua immediately get the ball out in the flat to Kyle Pitts.
15:13And he ran for like 30 yards. I could see that working for Kyle Pitts if Tua is in there, just like a PPR scam type of setup.
15:22So yeah, I just wanted to harp on it.
15:24I just want to note that Stefanski tight end thing because we haven't talked about it enough probably.
15:30I know Silva's on Kyle Pitts. What about Pitts versus Fannin straight up, Silva?
15:35How do you have that? I have Pitts for sure.
15:38Oh, yeah. Yeah, Silva is at 74 overall Pitts, 79 overall Fannin, but also has Pitts ahead of Kraft and Laporta there in the ranks.
15:46We'll talk more about Laporta here in a minute.
15:49Yeah, and I, you know, theoretically, you could build a case that Tua is better for Pitts for sure.
15:55It's just like a guy that, as you mentioned, like Kyle Pitts is the first read.
16:00Tua gets it out of his hands. That's something that we've seen.
16:04Those are throws that we've seen Tua make, throws that Tua can make.
16:08I don't think that Kyle Pitts is dead if it's Michael Penix.
16:12Michael Penix can throw the ball downfield more and Kyle Pitts can run downfield routes as well.
16:17Yep, agreed. Okay, story five, Kirk Cousins officially named the Las Vegas Raiders starter for week one.
16:22Not a surprise. I mean, Raiders have been saying Cousins would be the week one starter since before the NFL draft.
16:29I don't think this really changes anything. Still think Mendoza is a really good bet to start a lot of games.
16:36There are just so many paths. Like, Kirk Cousins is shown to be injury prone.
16:41He's 38 years old. Maybe he just sucks. I mean, he was 29th in yards per attempt last year and they just bench him.
16:48Also, the Raiders could lose a lot. In weeks four through seven, they have to play Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, and the Rams in four straight weeks.
16:57Like, you lose those four games in a row, which I would say is likely.
17:02Then how do you not go to Mendoza? Now, I don't know if you saw, Evan, but Mendoza has been shaky in the preseason.
17:10I know you're really high on him as a player.
17:13Are you thrown at all by how shaky Mendoza has been this preseason?
17:17Not for his long-term outlook. But, yeah, like, just standing in the pocket and not getting the ball out, that is an issue for his, like, near-term readiness.
17:26I think that he's way too smart a kid and too hard of a worker to not be able to get over that hump.
17:34But, yeah, just holding the ball in the pocket, you're going to end up taking a bunch of sacks, getting hit a bunch.
17:41And that is a sign that, yeah, we're going with Kirk Cousins.
17:45They're paying Kirk Cousins like $25 million anyways. I mean, they're going to get some starts out of him.
17:51And then, as you mentioned, when the losses start racking up, that's when I think that we will see Fernando Mendoza.
17:57Yeah, I mean, I've been taking a lot of Mendoza late just because I'm so confident he's going to be starting late.
18:04But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit put off by 55% completion rate in the preseason, 59.5%
18:11past the rating because he took four sacks, got picked off twice.
18:15Like, it was not a good performance in the preseason for Mendoza.
18:19I mean, you're going to probably end up taking six or seven zeros from Fernando Mendoza.
18:24But you're prepared for that. I'm prepared for that.
18:27I'm not prepared for him to be like, come back and be Cam Ward level, you know, 2025 Cam Ward when he gets back.
18:35I was hoping that I would get more out of him upon his return.
18:39And maybe we will. You know, it's only the preseason.
18:42But yeah, I thought it was just a little shaky.
18:46Speaking of the Raiders, so Ashton Gentry off the ankle sprain has not been ruled out for week one.
18:52I think he's something around 50-50 to play, maybe a little bit better than that.
18:56I just want to note this because Clint Kubiak has changed his tune a little bit on workload since the Gentry ankle plus Mike Washington playing so well.
19:05I want to read two quotes to you, Silva.
19:08The first quote is from a couple months ago.
19:11This was Clint Kubiak. He said, we want to put a lot of pressure on Ashton.
19:16I don't know the play snap percentage, but you look at Christian McCaffrey, his play snap percentage is high.
19:22So those great backs, they don't want to come off the field.
19:26And that's when everybody's like, oh my God, Gentry is going to be Kubiak's, you know, play 90% of the snaps as his CMC role.
19:34Then a couple days ago, in the midst of the Mike Washington mania and Ashton Gentry ankle, Kubiak said, I think that
19:41they're both going to prepare to play a lot of football.
19:45As these games unfold, you react to the game.
19:47I think we've got two guys we're really excited about.
19:51So I don't want to go nuts about this coach speak stuff.
19:54You know, I don't think it matters too much, but are you worried at all, Evan, that Mike Washington has done enough
20:01to eat into Ashton Gentry's workload this year? I do.
20:05I do. You know, Clint Kubiak wasn't there when they used the number six overall pick on Ashton Gentry.
20:11So I think that although that matters for the way that we are going to project out Ashton Gentry, the fact that
20:18he was the number six pick in the draft, it doesn't matter probably as much to Clint Kubiak.
20:23And then, you know, Clint Kubiak was there when they drafted Mike Washington.
20:28And Mike Washington, it sounds like, has done everything right.
20:31He's 233 pounds or 223 pounds. And he ran a 4-3-3 with a 39-inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump.
20:37I mean, he is explosive. And the way that he looks, he has looked in the preseason in terms of being a
20:44schematic fit for what the Raiders want to do with their run blocking and getting back Colton Miller and, you know, signing Tyler Linderbaum.
20:52Like, I think that they, the Raiders probably want to make the foundation of their offense their running game.
20:58So, yes, I do think that they will use both backs.
21:01I would project, assuming that Ashton Gentry plays, maybe like a 55-45 split in week one as Ashton Gentry continues to ramp up.
21:09They get the Dolphins in week one, by the way.
21:12People should be drafting the Raiders defense to use in week one.
21:16But this is a game where, you know, and it's at home.
21:19I mean, that place is going to be roaring.
21:22That's a game that the Raiders could, like, win and put up some points.
21:27So, we're already talking about week one start-sit dilemmas.
21:30Yeah. Well, they should win. I mean, the Dolphins have maybe the worst roster I've ever seen.
21:35I mean, it is so bad for the Dolphins.
21:38Yeah, and Silva's down to 34 overall on Gentry.
21:41He's been going, you know, 25, 24. I've seen some 20th overall lately on Gentry.
21:46Silva has Gentry behind Travis Etienne, behind Bruce Hall, behind Javante Williams there at the running back position.
21:51Story seven, Jeremiah Love. Update on his ankle injury.
21:54No great update on Jeremiah Love. Still think he has a chance to play week one.
21:59We had the video of him carrying the pizza onto the plane.
22:03He looked good. There was later a video of him working out over the weekend before the Cardinals preseason finale.
22:10Definitely did not look anywhere near 100% to me in that video.
22:13But still, we're two weeks away from week one.
22:16Definitely live. I would note, Evan, that the Cardinals only kept three running backs on their 53-man roster as of now.
22:23Jeremiah Love, Tyler Algier, and Bam Knight. James Conner was placed on IR return.
22:27Still is not ready off of the ankle injury.
22:30So I know a lot of people thought, oh, James Conner is going to Dallas.
22:35James Conner is going to Green Bay. James Conner is old and coming off a very, very, very serious injury that he
22:42is not ready to return from yet. But anyway, Silva, thoughts on Cardinals backfield as we head to the season here again.
22:49Love, Algier, and Bam Knight are the three that made it.
22:53No updated thoughts on Jeremiah Love, really. We're just kind of waiting for him to get over the hump in regard to his high ankle sprain.
23:01And I'm with you. I thought he didn't quite look 100% running on the sideline.
23:06I'm no doctor, though. So what I think there does not matter.
23:09I do think that, well, the Cardinals play the Chargers in week one.
23:14And I don't know. Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself too much here.
23:18But, I mean, Tyler Algier, if it's no Jeremiah Love, Tyler Algier is a guy that he's going to be at very
23:25least a decent bet to score a touchdown. Because we know that any time that they get in, like he's built to
23:32punch the ball into the end zone. And I think he can handle a big workload.
23:37Now that, you know, from like a, I mean, the Chargers are probably favored by like eight points or something like that.
23:44But, so, you know, from that standpoint, it could be a little dicey.
23:48But I think if no Jeremiah Love, Tyler Algier is at least in play as like a flex starter.
23:54We have the entire, we have access to the entire league in week one.
23:59There's no teams on by. Everyone is, you know, about as healthy as they're going to be all season.
24:05So, but I mean, you could draft Tyler Algier.
24:07And, I mean, he's in play as a flex starter week one.
24:11Yeah, so he was at 35 overall on Jeremiah Love here.
24:15I think he's going to go around there a little bit earlier for people that haven't drafted yet.
24:21You know, I think he's going to get over this injury and be okay.
24:25I wouldn't dock him too, too much. Him or Gentry too, too much.
24:29Like, I don't want to be week one brained.
24:32Like, the season is so long. We're not trying to win week one in season long.
24:37We're trying to win week 14, 15, 16. So, I still think Gentry and Love in the 30s there, if they get that far, are good.
24:45I'm just not sure that they're going to get that far.
24:49The other part of these guys being hurt that has changed drafting dynamic is it has pushed Brees Hall, Kyron Williams, Javante
24:56Williams up a lot in drafts to the point where people are taking them now early round three, late round two type
25:03stuff because they don't have, they don't want to take Gentry and Love.
25:07So, yeah, you know, draft stuff is certainly changing a lot here.
25:11Be aware of that as you get into the mix.
25:14Story eight. I thought it was an interesting quote from Lamar.
25:18You know, reporters asked Lamar Jackson about not running as much last year.
25:22Why didn't you run as much last year? And he just said, I was hurt.
25:26They were asked, will you run more this year?
25:29He said, I'll do whatever it takes to win.
25:32And that's kind of like the answer that I wanted to hear because this was my thesis the whole time.
25:39He was so banged up last year. Hamstring, back, knee, ankle, toe.
25:42He only averaged 5.1 rush attempts per game. He had never been under 8.2 rush attempts per game.
25:48His peak was around 11 rush attempts per game.
25:51If he can get back to that like eight, eight and a half rush attempts per game, it's pretty strong.
25:57So do you buy this, Evan, that Lamar is going to run at his previous levels now?
26:03He is inching towards age 30. He might actually be 30 already.
26:07Oh yeah, I'm buying it. I'm buying that Lamar Jackson is going to be like, he's a player that will operate with a chip on his shoulder.
26:15You know, and after having the worst season of his career and having stuff come out in the Baltimore media about him, negative stuff.
26:23I don't know if you remember that. Mike Preston wrote an article, yeah, he's going to have a chip on his shoulder.
26:30And also Declan Doyle, this is a really exciting story.
26:33I think, you know, from the Ben Johnson and the Sean Payton.
26:37I mean, if Lamar Jackson bounces back, all Declan Doyle needs is for Lamar Jackson to bounce back to his previous level
26:44of play to become the youngest head coach in NFL history.
26:47I mean, Declan Doyle will be 31 next offseason and he will be an NFL head coach if Lamar Jackson has a big year.
26:55And I think that signs are pointing toward that.
26:58I mean, it's crazy. Lamar is 29. Declan Doyle is 30.
27:01They're like the same age. Yeah. You know, I know I've been maybe too hard on the Harbaugh guys, but I think it's a huge upgrade.
27:10The more I've thought about it, it's just a huge upgrade for the Ravens to get rid of Harbaugh and Roman and
27:17these guys, you know, just Declan Doyle is going to do more creative things with Lamar.
27:22And if he's healthy and running, yeah, so is at 51 overall on Lamar here.
27:27I think that's roughly right. In 10 team leagues, I would take Lamar even higher than that, where everybody's going to have
27:34really good running back and wide receiver, but there's not that many quarterbacks and tight ends where you can really separate.
27:40So yeah, story nine, Sam Laporta off the hip injury is back.
27:44Good for week one. I want to mention this because I was a little worried about Sam Laporta because it was a
27:51hip issue, which can be related to your back.
27:54And of course, Laporta herniated a disc last November, had surgery on his back.
27:58Seems like the hip issue that he had this camp was just a bruise.
28:03So I am playing it as if Laporta is ready to go.
28:07Silva again does have Laporta behind Kyle Pitts in his rank.
28:10Silva, any final thoughts here on Mr. Laporta heading to the season?
28:14Yeah, I have and I like this tier of tight ends.
28:18I have Kyle Pitts, Tucker Craft, Sam Laporta and Harold Fain and all jammed together in the same tier.
28:24It's just, you know, whatever flavor of ice cream you like the best.
28:28I like all those guys to an extent, to different extents.
28:31I mean, the case for Laporta is tight end scoring often comes through touchdowns, right?
28:36They're not going to get huge yardage numbers, typically not going to get huge catch.
28:41Numbers, you need touchdowns. That's good for Sam Laporta because the Lions have the softest schedule in the NFL.
28:47They're implied for 26.2 points per game. Only the Rams and Bills are implied for more points.
28:52So if Laporta is 100% off the back and the hip, I really like him.
28:57And the other thing you get with Laporta is anytime one of the other guys goes out, Gibbs, Amon Ra, Jameson Williams.
29:04You know, Laporta is going to have a huge spike in our projection.
29:08I mean, huge spike. My confidence level in the Lions having the best offense in the NFL this year has only grown as training camp has progressed.
29:17And Sam Laporta is a really big part of that.
29:20You know, in previous years, people had kind of thrown around Jared Goff as an MVP bad, you know, like 20, 30 to one.
29:28Why not Jared Goff? And I was always like, no, I think this could maybe be the year that Jared Goff.
29:34And we have the story out that, you know, that Jared Goff is going to be essentially implementing and running the offense even more so than Drew Petsing.
29:43I mean, this is Jared Goff's year. Yeah, there was some 40.
29:47We're just living in it. There was some 40 to one out there on Jared Goff, which, you know, if he throws
29:54for 5,000 yards and 45 touchdowns, that's enough to do it.
29:58And I do think he can do that. Like, that is in the bag for sure.
30:03Yeah. Okay. A couple injury guys I want to talk about because these are guys that we are unclear on.
30:09I mentioned Pierce as one we are unclear on.
30:12As of now, we're recording this Monday afternoon. The other two spots we're unclear on are Keaton Mitchell and Emeka Egbuka.
30:19I'll go to Keaton Mitchell first. This is an undisclosed injury.
30:22Mike McDaniel mentioned last week that Keaton Mitchell had a quote-unquote little setback.
30:26Somehow, no one asked him or he didn't say a setback from what.
30:30I don't think the public knows what the injury is.
30:34I suspect it is a soft tissue injury, lower body, not too serious.
30:38Maybe they don't know if he can go week one.
30:41Obviously, they think that Keaton Mitchell can play before week four as he did not go on IR return.
30:47But it's not great, Evan. I mean, Keaton Mitchell has only played 26 games our last three seasons due to injuries.
30:54The knock on him has been he's like this small guy who's always banged up and now he's banged up going to the season.
31:01So has this changed you, your outlook at all on Keaton Mitchell here, Evan?
31:06Because it's so vague, and this is the same case with Emeka Egbuka too.
31:10Like we don't have anything definitive on either of these guys.
31:14I just, I haven't messed with them in the ranks at all.
31:18Yeah. Also, the Keaton Mitchell thing, I feel like it surfaced not long ago at all.
31:23And he did not, although there was some speculation he might start the season on the IR, he did not.
31:29So I have not had any impetus to move Keaton Mitchell in my rankings.
31:34And the Egbuka thing is like frustrating. Yeah. I don't know.
31:37What are your thoughts on the Egbuka thing? Yeah.
31:40Well, let me just say real quick before we get to Egbuka on Keaton Mitchell.
31:45I think it's going to be kind of tough to pinpoint when to start Keaton Mitchell in like redraft leagues.
31:51Obviously in deep leagues where you're like, oh yeah, seven touches, eight touches from Keaton Mitchell.
31:56That's good enough for me. If you're in like a 10 team league or like a softer 12 team league, I could
32:03see how it could be harder to be like, how many is he going to get?
32:08He's just a bench player in those. Right. Exactly.
32:11And so like, I want to get a look at Keaton Mitchell's role on my bench.
32:16So I guess my point is I wasn't trying to get Keaton Mitchell into my starting lineup right away anyways.
32:23So this injury doesn't bother me as much anyways, because he wasn't going to be in my starting lineup early season regardless.
32:30So I still want to get a look at Keaton Mitchell on my bench.
32:34On, on a booka. So the quote from Todd Bowles was Bowles expects Jalen McMillan and hopefully a Mecca booka to be ready for week one.
32:42I mean, we've seen turf toe and it hasn't been the word turf toe.
32:47I have not seen used just toe injury. I assume it's something turf toe related though.
32:52We've seen that hinder guys for really, really long periods.
32:55So it's scary. We have docked a booka down in the ETR ranks, which pains me because I thought he was a
33:02really good pick in like late round three, early round four.
33:06We've gone to 45 overall on egg booka. Um, in the ranks, we were closer to like 36, 37.
33:12There's just so many wide receivers there that I like that if it's close and this dude has a toe injury, it's kind of easy to pass.
33:20So I don't know, man, like it's definitely not good heading to the season with a toe injury, but Todd Bowles is the worst on injuries.
33:29I don't know. Evan, what do you think? I don't even know what to think.
33:33We don't, we don't have any information, man. You know?
33:37Well, and then my point is that like, when you get to this part of the draft, you can take Devonta Smith,
33:44Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddle, Lad McConkie, Garrett Wilson, T Higgins.
33:47I think those are all really good picks. Really, you know, really close to egg booka.
33:52And if he's going to have this toe thing that we don't know about, it pains me, but maybe we should just
33:59say, Hey, belongs behind all those guys. Yeah, exactly.
34:02And that's kind of what we've done. The sheer uncertainty of the situation.
34:06Right. And that's the way we were handling in the ranks.
34:09So yeah. God, I love the situation so much, you know, aside from the injury, I think that Emeka egg booka could
34:16be like what happened with JSN in JSN second year when he went, went off for a hundred catches and was a massive, massive steal.
34:24And then was still a steal again last off season.
34:28I mean, I think that egg booka can be that kind of player, but you're right.
34:33The health uncertainty sucks. Right. And everything is like, I don't trust Chris Godwin to stay healthy for the entire season.
34:39You know, and that would be a good thing for egg booka also.
34:44So yeah. McMillan has been heard. Yeah. Ted Hurst is a third round small school rookie.
34:49Kate Otten has never commanded targets. I mean, you can really build it.
34:53I think Baker can have a big season. You know, who would that, who would that funnel through that would funnel through a Mecca egg booka for sure.
35:02And like the, I hate these injuries. Like you remember the Matthew Stafford thing last year.
35:07If anybody doesn't remember, people were so scared on Matthew Stafford.
35:10He was in like a hyperbolic chamber, getting his back worked on.
35:14They were like, he might never play football again.
35:17Then he comes out and wins MVP. We've also had cases where guys come into the year with an injury and they're
35:24just messed up for the whole year. You know, guys, um, Duncan Cade is an example, you know, like, oh, he has this knee thing.
35:32He's going to be okay. No, he's not okay.
35:35You know? And like, so it can go either way.
35:38I want to gamble on, on a book. It just, it'd be tough for me if I was in like one league,
35:45that was most important thing to me. And all these guys were on the board ahead of him.
35:51So that's why we've kind of moved egg booka back.
35:54But God, I agree with Evan, you know, if healthy, and he certainly could be still a transfer massive, massive season for egg booka.
36:02Speaking of the bucks, uh, story 12, Sean Tucker took a $1 million pay cut to stay with the bucks.
36:08So Sean Tucker was set to make 3.5 million.
36:11Now he'll make 2.5 million instead. He stays on the active roster bucks wave Josh Williams, but they did resign Josh Williams to the practice squad today.
36:19I don't think Sean Tucker is really draftable in most formats, Evan, but has this changed your thoughts on Bucky Irving or Kenny gain well at all?
36:28Um, no, I think it was the right decision by the Buccaneers.
36:32They could probably stop stash Josh Williams on their practice squad.
36:35He's back already. Yep. Oh, he is already back.
36:38Okay. Yeah. So no, I mean, I, I, this is just the depth chart that we anticipated happening for the, you know, the duration of the off season.
36:47Now the question is going to be, will the bucks go back to using Sean Tucker inside the five yard line?
36:54We're not going to even find that out until the games are played.
36:58You know, the bucks do have a new OC and Zach Robinson too.
37:02Exactly. You know, and Bucky Irving is healthy, healthier, you know, than he was last year, which maybe they were holding him
37:09out of the short yardage situation and goal line situations because he wasn't as healthy then.
37:14Like we're not going to figure it. We're not going to know that.
37:18It's just, we're guessing until the games start getting played.
37:22Um, yeah, there's two reasons why Bucky might get the goal line job back.
37:26Number one, what Silva said, new OC. And number two, the shoulder thing, he said like the short yardage stuff was mentally,
37:33it scares me a little that like the shoulder thing was so bad.
37:37He couldn't or didn't want to do goal line short yardage stuff last season.
37:42They use Sean Tucker there exclusively. If he actually feels a hundred percent on that shoulder, I could see Bucky getting some goal line stuff back.
37:50And we do have a little bit of a bump on, on Bucky here lately.
37:55We're up to 44 overall on Bucky Irving in the ETR ranks.
37:59Did you see, um, Baker Mayfield talking up Gainwell though?
38:02He talks about everyone. I mean, he's just like a good dude, you know?
38:06Yeah. Okay. But yeah, I think Gainwell is going to play a lot.
38:10I mean, yeah, I don't, I don't for sure.
38:13Okay. Yeah. So do I. All the passing situations for sure.
38:17Um, let's go to story 13. Jaden blue got waved by the Cowboys on Sunday and then not claimed by anyone on Monday.
38:24Subsequently, Cowboys turn around and claim Amari Demercato on waivers.
38:27Demercato was cut by the chiefs. We'll get to that here in a second, but pretty much the worst possible run out
38:34for Jaden blue who had some momentum early in the off season, early in camp and something happened.
38:40I don't know. So there was like something turned on a dime and they went back to hating Jaden blue.
38:46And now they cut him and replace him with Amari Demercato.
38:50So Evan thoughts on what happened here in Cowboys backfield.
38:53They wanted the Cowboys wanted Jaden blue to, to be a thing this year.
38:58I mean, they hyped him up. They try to build up his confidence through the media and everything.
39:03He's a really explosive player. He's obviously like immature or something.
39:07Um, you know, going back to wearing the Louis Vuitton cleats and getting blisters all over his feet.
39:12And then they hype him up to start training camp.
39:16And then it was clear, I would say about maybe like a week and a half or a week or like two
39:23weeks ago that all of a sudden he just fallen out of favor.
39:27Like he did something to piss him off. Winds up getting cut.
39:31Doesn't even get claimed off waivers. I don't know.
39:34He'll probably end up on a practice squad or something like that.
39:37But the Cowboys are going forward with Malik Davis and Amari Demercato.
39:41Phil Mafa also did not make it. Do you think that the Demercato signing, Demercato was a pass pro specialist, kind of a passing down specialist.
39:49Do you think this hurts Javante Williams passing down stuff at all?
39:53No. Javante Williams is going to cook this year.
39:56Yeah. I mean, this like, this situation where they couldn't settle on a backup, they wound up really going with the least
40:03talented option in Malik Davis and then just claiming a guy off waivers in Amari Demercato.
40:08Like Javante Williams is going to be on the field a ton.
40:12The Cowboys love him. They trust him in all situations.
40:15Remember, re-signing him was the second transaction that the Cowboys made this offseason.
40:19That was a huge priority. They went out, didn't draft anybody at running back, didn't sign a single free agent running back,
40:26brought back all these guys, and none of these guys really stood out.
40:31That's all good news for Javante Williams. And what really is a bulletproof offense from the offensive line to Dak Prescott being
40:38a field general to all the points that they're going to score?
40:41Yeah. I mean, and I've seen the Cowboys getting hyped as like maybe like a surprise, you know, maybe like Super Bowl caliber team.
40:49Their defense should definitely be better this year. You know, I know it's the Cowboys and blah, blah, blah.
40:55But like they have a really good roster on paper.
40:58Agreed. And we did put a give a boost to Javante Williams in the ETR ranks.
41:03We're now up to 25 overall in the ETR ranks on Javante Williams.
41:08And basically on what Silva said, we were thinking that one of these guys, whether it's Malik Davis or Jaden Blue or
41:15Phil Moffa, like one of these guys was going to cut into Javante.
41:19Given all of the chaos and like them really not liking Jaden Blue or Phil Moffa or anything like that, it's a
41:26nice vote of confidence for Javante Williams. I do think Malik Davis is worth noting as the clean handcuff here.
41:32In other words, if Javante went down, we would see Malik Davis in that role and Demercato staying in the pass down role there most likely.
41:40Let's go to the other side of this. Demercato, story 14, Amari Demercato cut by the Kansas City Chiefs.
41:46This was a small one, but I thought really notable because I was surprised Demercato got cut by the Chiefs.
41:53You have Patrick Mahomes, you want to protect him.
41:56I would have thought Demercato is your best pass pro back.
41:59You keep him no matter what. I just think Emma Johnson went out and earned it.
42:04And so we've moved up Emma Johnson a decent amount here, moving up in the one injury away article, which anyone who's
42:11trying to like optimize their handcuff stuff, highly recommend that you check out the one injury away article.
42:17But Chiefs only kept three running backs on the roster, Evan.
42:21Kenneth Walker, who's going to be the full workhorse and hopefully go completely berserk.
42:25And then Emma Johnson and then Brashard Smith. So Evan, thoughts on the way the Chiefs played their backfield here going into the season?
42:33Love it for Emma Johnson. And Emma Johnson earned it, man.
42:36I know Jared Smola of DraftSharks had some really good metrics from Emma Johnson just in the preseason.
42:42He's really, really impressive. He caught a bunch of passes in college too.
42:46He nailed down this number two running back job behind Kenneth Walker, who, although we love Kenneth Walker in the NFL, Kenneth
42:53Walker has never handled, you know, a massive, massive workload all to himself.
42:57He's going to be given that opportunity this year.
43:00But Emma Johnson, one of the best RB bench stashes.
43:03He's like up near at the top of the list of RB bench stashes.
43:08He should be owned in every single league and toward the end of drafts is a priority to stash on the end of your bench.
43:16Yep. Agreed. And again, if you want to see those stashes, check out the one injury away list there.
43:22And I think in redraft, you can actually take those kind of handcuff backs higher than you would in best ball.
43:28Obviously, the zeros are on your bench in redraft.
43:31And in best ball, those are counting zeros there for you as part of your roster.
43:36Story 15. Positive injury news, Evan. Chris Bell. Good to see it, man.
43:40I was impressed he was able to make it back from the ACL tear in November at Louisville, play in the preseason.
43:47Now he says he's going to play week one.
43:50Not only did Chris Bell play in the preseason, he played 14 snaps in that game.
43:55He got five targets on those 14 snaps. Caught two balls for 22 yards.
44:00Silva, any thoughts on Chris Bell's NFL debut? I don't have any really big thoughts on Chris Bell, you know, playing.
44:07In this offensive environment, it's going to be really, really tough.
44:10But yeah, I mean, for the best ballers who are drafting, you know, in rounds 18, 19, 20, this is a guy
44:17that, you know, should absolutely be on their radar.
44:20Really probably round 17, 18 at this point because the trajectory on his recovery, just screaming upward.
44:25Yeah. It's just, you know, I don't know. It's the Dolphins.
44:29He's still, you know, a third round pick coming off a massive injury with no NFL track record.
44:35He's intriguing. You know, he's worth bringing up. He would have been around one pick in the NFL draft if not for this injury.
44:42Like, for sure. And it would not shock me if Chris Bell is the clear leader of this team in projected target
44:49share on a week-to-week basis come November, December. So what is that worth?
44:53Probably not that much. But yeah, I do think it's worth putting out there.
44:58All right. Before we get out of here, three more small notes from roster cut day.
45:03First one, Evan Giants keep four running backs on their active roster.
45:07So there were rumors that Tyrone Tracy could be cut or traded.
45:11That did not happen. They go with Cam Scadaboo, Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary all making the team.
45:17This is the boomer stuff, man. This is the Jim, the Harbaugh boomer stuff that worries me when I take, and I
45:24like Jackson Dart a lot, you know, but it worries me that he's just going to boom it up.
45:30So have any thoughts on the Giants keeping all four running backs?
45:34It didn't really change anything for me. I think it does make sense in light of the factors that you pointed to, Al.
45:41You know, this regime did not draft Jackson Dart.
45:44You know, this coaching staff did not pick him.
45:47Um, and I think that they probably, the Giants probably want to try to run the ball, um, to establish some sort of a foundation on offense.
45:56Because Jackson Dart can be a very, while very exciting and very productive in fantasy, can be a herky-jerky dude who, you
46:03know, I don't know that there's going to be a steady rhythm to the Giants passing game.
46:08They'll try to find some offensive rhythm from their running game and use, they might end up using all these running backs.
46:15I mean, all these guys are playable, at least.
46:18I don't think that there's a star among the group.
46:21Some people might think that Cam Skadaboo's a star.
46:24I don't know that the Giants view him that way.
46:27And again, I think that he's very interchangeable from a skill set standpoint with Najee Harris, who's been getting first team reps.
46:34I think that three backs will see touches in week one.
46:38Three Giants backs will get touches in week one.
46:41Yeah, and I've gotten much lower Skadaboo. You know, Silva's convinced me over the last few weeks I have not really taken Skadaboo at all.
46:49We're down, sorry, Silva is down to 64 overall in his ranks on Cam Skadaboo.
46:53He's going in the 40s in most redraft setups is Skadaboo.
46:57You know, and his ADP hasn't really moved since the Najee Harris signing.
47:01And I'm not sure that's right. Like, I think it should have moved off of the Najee Harris signing.
47:07And it really hasn't. Oh, also, small note on the Giants.
47:10Ronan reporting that Malachi Fields is a likely wide receiver, too.
47:14I would also note that Odell Beckham did make the team, which, you know, good for him.
47:19But yeah, I think they have a rotation at wide receiver, too.
47:23Like Slayton, Odell, Fields. I'm not trying to get too excited about Fields here.
47:28When Ronan has talked about it, like Odell Beckham is still, he can still get open.
47:33Yeah. So I think that he'll have a little bit of a role, maybe like a situational deep threat.
47:39Story 17, Christian Kirk lands on IR return for the 49ers.
47:42Just continues to stack up really well for Dijon, Stribbling, Ricky Pearsall out for the season.
47:47Now Kirk on IR return. I know some people have been worried, like, Demarcus Robinson's going to play a lot.
47:54I just think it's going to be a lot of Mike Evans and Stribbling and then Debo in the gadget role.
48:01So it's run out so well for Stribbling. The problem is he goes so high.
48:05It's like really hard to even get Stribbling. Even in redraft setups, I've seen him go round six, round seven.
48:12Silva's at 85 overall. You're probably going to have to take him around there or maybe even higher to get him.
48:18So at this point, it's not a question to me if Stribbling is, like, going to play well.
48:24I think he will. He'll be productive. It's just a question of how high you're willing to go to get him.
48:31Silva, any final thoughts on 49ers wide receiver room as we head to the season?
48:36I'll just kind of reiterate that with Mike Evans now consistently being available in, like, the six rounds of drafts, I mean, I think that that's crazy.
48:44And I think that I would love – I actually did get him in, like, a home league 14-teamer in the sixth round on Saturday.
48:52And I think that people will be able to do that.
48:56I think that that's an auto-click in the sixth round.
48:59You see Mike Evans there, just take him, please.
49:02Agreed. And I've seen him go even later than that.
49:05I mean, in the ESPN default ranks, and you guys – I updated that article because they updated their defaults.
49:11So, anyone drafting on ESPN, like, Mike Evans is totally buried.
49:15And, yeah, people are taking Mike Evans in, like, round seven and stripling in round eight.
49:20Like, it's just that's way too tight. And I love stripling.
49:23I'm like a stripling guy. You know, I think he's going to have an awesome year.
49:28It's just getting very, very expensive. All right, last one here.
49:32Tank Dell lands on IR return. This was a great story.
49:35You know, things looked good in OTAs and mini camps, but Tank Dell just could not sustain practices.
49:41If Tank Dell ends up playing this season, I think the Texans should see it as a bonus of sorts.
49:48So, Nico Collins, Kishon Booty, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jalen Knoll will be the top four wide receivers for the Texans.
49:54Sylvan, any thoughts on this room here at the Texans?
49:57No, but I did see in the YouTube comments the other day – I can't remember which show it was below –
50:04somebody was, like, criticizing our analysis, which is fine.
50:07But then they went on to say that Xavier Hutchinson is going to be the Texans' deep threat this year.
50:13And I was just like, I mean, if you're going to criticize our analysis, at least come correct with yours.
50:20Because Xavier Hutchinson is about as far from a deep threat as you could possibly come up with.
50:26So, get it together, YouTube commenters. And, you know, I have – I'm like a Jalen Knoll guy.
50:31I think Jalen Knoll is actually good. I'm still worried that they're going to play Xavier Hutchinson ahead of him because they just want him to block.
50:40Just get out there, do some dirty work, be reliable, and block in the run game.
50:45And then play really good defense with their defense and try to win games that way.
50:50So, we'll see how it plays out. I think most likely, Booty – Booty eventually once gets up to speed, and Nico
50:57Collins will be the guys that you want to click there, if at all.
51:02But hopefully, Knoll can have, like, a real slot role.
51:05But we'll see. We'll see. All right. Yeah, Booty is going to be the Texans' deep threat, not Xavier Hutchinson.
51:11Yes. All right. That is going to do it for what may be the final news and rankings show of this NFL lead-up.
51:18Hope you guys got value out of this. If you did, there's plenty more in our draft kit.
51:24Be sure you check that out. Establishtherun.com. Wanted to note, if you have draft kit and you want to upgrade to bundle,
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51:46Coming up later this week on YouTube, Silva and my worst picks.
51:49I know a lot of people liked our favorite pick in each round.
51:53We're going to do a show about our least favorite pick in each round, so be sure you stay tuned for that.
52:00Four, Silva, Priester Ryan, Priester Luke, I'm Adam. Good luck, everybody.