PodcastFrom Establish The Run
How To Beat NFL DFS Tournaments In 2026 (Episode 1019 with Adam Levitan, Drew Dinkmeyer, Sam Brott)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 6, 2026
Published
Sun, September 6, 2026
38
Player insights
32
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldDalton KincaidJameson WilliamsJared GoffJosh AllenLamar JacksonAmon-Ra St. BrownBijan RobinsonBo NixBrock BowersBrock PurdyCade OttonCaleb WilliamsColby Parkinson
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveUsage100:39
Sam Brott notes that stacking Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams with Jared Goff is a powerful small-field strategy because it provides a high floor even if one player underperforms.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Baker Mayfield as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pagePositiveUsage73:25
Adam Levitan identifies the Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton stack as a historically underpriced, condensed offense option that offers high ceiling potential.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeUsage55:38
Sam Brott notes that while pairing Bijan Robinson with the Falcons defense is a logical correlation, the field often overplays this combination, reducing its leverage value.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Bo Nix as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection21:56
Drew Dinkmeyer identifies Brock Bowers as a high-end separator at the tight end position, noting that his lack of effectiveness last year was due to an early-season injury.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Brock Purdy as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pageCade Otton
PositiveUsage73:25
Adam Levitan highlights the Cade Otton, Baker Mayfield, and Mike Evans stack as a historically underpriced, condensed offense option that offers high ceiling potential.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeUsage65:00
Drew Dinkmeyer discusses stacking Caleb Williams, noting that he prefers getting deep into the game environment with multiple pass-catchers like Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland.
Insight pageColby Parkinson
PositiveValue68:38
Drew Dinkmeyer highlights Colby Parkinson as a mid-priced tight end who helped make Rams triple-stacks more affordable and viable last season.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection21:56
Drew Dinkmeyer identifies Colston Loveland as one of the high-end separators at the tight end position for the 2026 season.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
NegativeValue24:56
Adam Levitan notes that Dalton Kincaid is available on some main slates as a tight end option.
Insight pageNegativeUsage40:45
Adam Levitan references Dalton Kincaid (implied as Shakir's teammate/stack partner) in the context of Josh Allen's high-scoring games where pass-catchers failed to produce, noting that such outcomes tanked lineups.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Daniel Jones as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue24:52
Adam Levitan notes that George Kittle is available on some main slates, though not week one, as a tight end option.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveValue2:26
Adam Levitan notes that Polymarket offers a 7-1 payout for Jahmyr Gibbs to win Offensive Player of the Year, which is better value than the 6-1 odds found on traditional sportsbooks.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveRole35:36
Adam Levitan suggests that the departure of Kevin Patullo could lead to a change in Jalen Hurts' attitude, potentially resulting in him running significantly more and breaking more DFS slates.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveValue17:26
Sam Brott highlights Jameson Williams as a mid-priced player (around 5k) who could reach 22 fantasy points, providing value that allows for spending up on running backs in DFS lineups.
Insight pagePositiveUsage72:38
Adam Levitan highlights Jameson Williams alongside Jared Goff as a cost-effective stack that provides significant ceiling potential due to the Lions' condensed offensive nature.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Jared Goff as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pagePositiveUsage72:38
Adam Levitan notes that Jared Goff and Jameson Williams were not expensive for a long time, making them an ideal target for condensed offense stacking to capture ceiling potential.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveValue30:16
Sam Brott suggests stacking Jaxon Smith-Njigba with Sam Darnold as a cost-effective DFS strategy.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection35:48
Adam Levitan notes that Jayden Daniels was not healthy last year and expects him to return to form and break slates with his legs this season.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeProjection20:18
Drew Dinkmeyer notes that Josh Allen's 40-point games are becoming rarer, and Sam Brott adds that Allen had a down season in terms of rushing volume, which contributed to the overall decline in quarterback scoring.
Insight pageNegativeUsage40:24
Adam Levitan highlights that even when Josh Allen scored 40 points, he often failed to bring a pass-catcher with him, which made it difficult to build successful tournament lineups.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeValue23:52
Adam Levitan includes Kyle Pitts in a mid-tier tight end group that could provide sufficient production to avoid paying up for elite options.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Kyler Murray as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection35:26
Adam Levitan expects Lamar Jackson to be healthy and return to his rushing form in the 2026 season, which could help him regain his slate-breaking ceiling.
Insight pagePositiveProjection35:30
Adam Levitan expects Lamar Jackson to bounce back as a runner this season, noting that he should be healthy and return to his previous rushing form.
Insight pageMalik Willis
NegativeValue31:36
Adam Levitan lists Malik Willis as one of many quarterbacks likely to be priced in the 5k range, contributing to the depth of the position.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveUsage73:25
Adam Levitan highlights the Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield, and Cade Otton stack as a historically underpriced, condensed offense option that offers high ceiling potential.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
NegativeUsage54:04
Adam Levitan uses Quinshon Judkins paired with the Browns defense as an example of a running back-defense stack that requires careful consideration of ownership to maintain leverage.
Insight pageSam Darnold
PositiveValue30:13
Sam Brott suggests that paying a lower salary (around 5,100) for Sam Darnold and stacking him with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a viable strategy given the depth of the quarterback position and the lack of high-end separators.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeValue23:52
Adam Levitan includes Sam LaPorta in a mid-tier tight end group that could provide sufficient production to avoid paying up for elite options.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection20:36
Drew Dinkmeyer attributes the high tight end scoring data from last year largely to Trey McBride's exceptional season, noting he gapped the rest of the position significantly.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeValue23:52
Adam Levitan includes Tucker Kraft in a mid-tier tight end group that could provide sufficient production to avoid paying up for elite options.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue23:46
Adam Levitan likes the mid-tier tight end options, specifically mentioning Tyler Warren as part of a group that could make spending up for top-tier tight ends unnecessary if they perform well.
Insight pageZavion Thomas
NegativeValue98:33
Adam Levitan mentions that Drew Dinkmeyer attempted to get him to draft Xavion Thomas in the 20th round, illustrating a low-owned, late-round target.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan and I like season-long fantasy football.
0:06I like basketball. I like dynasty. But for me, the greatest, purest, most intense form of fantasy football is DFS and it's not particularly close.
0:14So I am very excited for today's show. Joining me to talk about the great game are two of the best daily fantasy sports players that I know.
0:23Drew Dinkmeyer, one of the biggest DFS winners ever.
0:26How's it going, buddy? It's going great. We're one and a half weeks away from sweating millions of dollars on the line on a Sunday afternoon.
0:34So it's a great time to be alive. Indeed, it is.
0:37And from our data side, team single entry, three max crusher, full-grown sim bro, Sam Brott.
0:43How's it going, buddy? It's going well. I couldn't be more excited for the season to start.
0:48You know, I'm with you. All this off-season stuff is fun with the best ball and everything.
0:53And preseason DFS is great too, but there really is nothing like regular season NFL football DFS.
0:59Indeed. On today's show, we are going to discuss how to beat NFL DFS tournaments in 2026.
1:04We'll talk about what the field has been doing lately, what has won lately, how the game has changed and adapted to
1:11the changing NFL, specific strategy for today's DFS landscape, and more.
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1:27I'm not just talking about players' ADP and fantasy.
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2:33All right, let's get into it here. I want to start with the theme of the NFL lately and this whole strategy
2:40concept and change that's been happening in the NFL.
2:42Teams are running way more. They're passing less. Teams are playing more cover too.
2:47Teams are playing lighter boxes. This has been the key to fantasy, has been, I think, over the last couple years, understanding
2:54this and getting back into more running back-centric lineups.
2:57So, Brat, what has the field been doing in response to how the NFL is changing and what should we be doing?
3:04And by the way, like, we can look at this through flex usage on DraftKings in tournaments.
3:09How often people are using running back and flex versus wide receiver versus tight end.
3:14So, Brat, any thoughts on the changing NFL and how that's flowed through to DFS tournaments?
3:19Yeah, I mean, there's certainly been a narrative and maybe not even just a narrative, just the fact that the NFL has gone more run-heavy.
3:27I know you've talked about it a lot recently, Adam, about how, you know, there is this whole shift to, okay, we got to throw the ball.
3:35We got to create big explosive plays. And then the defense is adjusted for that.
3:40So, then a lot of NFL teams responded by, okay, you're going to give me a lighter box.
3:46I'm going to run the ball more. I'm going to get more heavy personnel with tight ends on the field.
3:52I'm going to use less wide receivers. So, we see this shift in how the actual NFL teams have, you know, adjusted to the changing landscape.
4:00And then the fantasy football players are adjusting as well.
4:04So, we see that, you know, the field is kind of gravitating a little bit more towards using running backs in flex more often.
4:11But we're also seeing a situation here where ultimately the field is just not using running backs enough in flex.
4:18And I think part of that might just be this kind of anchor bias that we have to, you know, years ago
4:25where the fantasy like slates were basically won by, okay, did you get those like super high-end outcomes from your wide receivers
4:32that hit an unmatchable ceiling or not? Because we were seeing so many explosive plays.
4:36But one thing that we did look into a lot was just is the field using running back in flex enough right now?
4:44And I think the short answer is no. Yeah.
4:46Last season, the top 0.1% of lineups used running back in flex 44.8% of the time.
4:52That was way more often, significantly more often than the field did.
4:55So, you know, this has been going on for, I would say, one, two, maybe three years.
5:01I think it's kind of been somewhat gradual in the past.
5:04As Brat said, it was like, how many wide receivers who are capable of scoring 35 fantasy points on DraftKings can I get into my lineup?
5:12I feel like that might not be the right way to play now.
5:17Dink, any thoughts on the changing meta here and how it applies to DFS tournaments?
5:21Yeah. So, there's a couple of different factors at play.
5:24There's the league-wide changes that you both referenced in terms of, you know, more rushing against lighter boxes leading to more rushing efficiency.
5:32That's actually bringing somewhat of an equilibrium or closer to an equilibrium in terms of rush efficiency versus pass efficiency.
5:38And that has led to just, like, more volume on the whole for running backs, especially inside the opposing 10-yard line and more touchdowns as a whole.
5:47There's also been this, like, evolution over the last handful of years.
5:51And I think this is starting to change with more wide receivers and more players out running routes.
5:56And when there's more players out running routes, it's harder for the top-end player to condense target share in a way that
6:03makes the most expensive wide receivers really dominate consistently week in and week out.
6:08That, I'm interested to see if that shift really adjusts this year after we saw last year with the Los Angeles Rams,
6:15Chicago Bears, some other successful teams, started implementing, like, three tight end sets and getting more and more tight ends out on the field.
6:22I think that makes it easier to run the ball in terms of having bigger people out there to potentially block.
6:29But it also might have an effect of condensing wide receiver target share and allowing some of those high-end wide receivers to
6:36kind of get back to producing the level of consistency where they were competing with the top-end running backs.
6:42We haven't seen that the last few years. And then there's this third element.
6:46So we've got, like, league-wide shifts. And we've got this third element, like, ownership shifts, how the league is playing.
6:53And then we've got salary shifts. And what's happened in the last few years is ultimately running back pricing had hit, like, a bit of a peak.
7:01And especially on DraftKings, they hadn't really raised it much beyond the very top guys, whereas the wide receiver pricing, like, kept inching up, inching up, inching up.
7:10So the number of times last year when we were kind of going through tournament plays on Establish the Millionaire flagship GPP
7:17show on Saturday mornings, we were noticing that, man, like, a lot of the best plays are running back simply because they're
7:24as affordable as the wide receivers and they're carrying a better projection.
7:28And so as wide receiver pricing kind of stayed and running back pricing really kind of came down in terms of, like,
7:35the high end, met by a higher running back pricing floor, which went up from, like, 3K to 4K to 5K in terms of playable players.
7:43It made it so that you had to build lineups that had more of the kind of mid-tier running backs and getting that value.
7:51And it was harder to fit in the top end receivers because you didn't have the really cheap running backs that were, like, replacement injury running backs.
7:59You also didn't have injuries to running backs as much in the last few years creating those values.
8:05So it's a complex game that's ever-evolving. And what we're trying to understand each year is how are the league dynamics changing?
8:12We've talked a little bit about that in terms of the lighter boxes, teams having more rushing efficiency.
8:18How are the DFS landscape changes in terms of how people are playing?
8:22And then how are the sites going to change in terms of the pricing?
8:26That's an unknown going into the season. So that's one we have to react to in season as opposed to prepare for it.
8:34We know what week one pricing will look like, but we don't know how the algorithm is going to continue to alter in the course of the season.
8:42Yeah, all great points. We'll talk about pricing here more in a second.
8:47Some people have said to me, yeah, Adam, it's true that lately it's been more run heavy.
8:52And defense are daring teams to run. How do you know that's going to continue this year?
8:57Maybe some teams will swing the pendulum back a little bit.
9:01But I think on the whole, I don't think the pendulum's going to swing back.
9:06Like, I think most defensive coordinators have learned it is correct.
9:09It is optimal to dare teams to run. And the worst thing you can do on defense is give up explosives down the field.
9:17I do not think that this is going to swing back.
9:20I think defenses have convinced themselves this is the right way to play.
9:24Maybe there'll be a coordinator or two or three or four.
9:28That doesn't, but on a whole, I think we're going to continue to see this.
9:33So, Rob, before we wrap this up on flex usage, is there anything else you want to say about what people are doing in the flex here?
9:41We already established that top lineups last year, the GPP winning lineups last year were using running back and flex at a rate significantly higher than the field.
9:50Anything else you want to note about flex usage?
9:53Yeah, just one last point I'll make. And this is something I touched on in one of the weekly GPP leverage columns
10:00that I wrote last season for in-season subscribers is there just aren't as many wide receivers that are really separating or hitting ceilings on a weekly basis.
10:08And I think this goes back to Drew's point about how it's harder for wide receivers to consolidate the volume that they got in the past.
10:17So we already talked about how there was a few year stretch there where you basically had to get like three or
10:24if not four wide receivers that hit 30 points in your lineup.
10:27And like that was the key to unlocking those huge ceilings.
10:31And we saw this shift last year where there was only like a handful of wide receivers that would hit even 20 points on a weekly basis.
10:39And so if the super high end guys aren't separating to like 35 points on a regular basis, and there was a
10:46couple guys that were in the like 5k range, like Jamison Williams types that could get to like 22 points even.
10:53You'd like take that in a heartbeat. And then it's kind of opened up the salary of, hey, I can get three
11:007k on average priced running backs into my lineup.
11:03That of course means spending up for a third good running back and flex.
11:07And that was like the key to opening up all the ceilings.
11:11So I think there's a lot of like, you know, interlocked factors that are kind of coming into play here.
11:18Okay. It doesn't only matter, as Brad alluded to, who we're playing the flex, but it's also how much should we be spending at each position.
11:26And so one thing we found is that the top lineups were spending at an outsized rate at running back, as we
11:33just said, and also at tight end last year for what it's worth, spending down at wide receiver and quarterback a bit.
11:40So in other words, like the best teams last year, not every week, but on average, the best teams last year for
11:47tournaments were spending up at running back, spending up at tight end and finding cheap plays at wide receiver and quarterback.
11:53Dink, do you think that sustains this season, this whole idea of up at running back, up at tight end, down at wide receiver, down at quarterback?
12:02I think there's a decent chance that it sustains this season.
12:05And the reasons that I think there's a good opportunity for it to sustain.
12:10First and foremost, the quarterback position has been harder and harder for the top level quarterbacks to really separate in a way that's like backbreaking.
12:18You know, the Josh Allen 40 balls are fewer and further between.
12:22I mean, you saw a quarterback scoring on the whole kind of come down.
12:26So I think that's going to force quarterback scoring, you know, our quarterback pricing down in terms of where you're going to spend.
12:33Then the tight end thing last year, I think the tight end data is largely influenced by Trey McBride's exceptional season where he really just gapped everybody.
12:42Right. And when a top tight end gaps, everybody in that way, it's just points that is really hard to make up in other spots on your roster.
12:51Um, cause as we've seen, it's hard for running backs to set running backs are very good at producing 20 point games.
12:58It's hard for running backs to produce 40 point games that really separate.
13:02And that's what they need to separate from the other running backs.
13:06There's so many that are producing these 15 to 20 point games, tight ends.
13:10It's so hard for tight ends to generate 20 point games that a 25 point game from a tight end really starts
13:17to separate from the rest of the competitors. We have some high end separators at the tight end position this year in McBride, in Colston Loveland, Brock Bowers.
13:26I think there's a chance that that continues. Even like last year, Bowers gets hurt early in the season.
13:32Isn't really effective. It was just kind of McBride.
13:35And I think the depth of the quality of tight ends we have that could potentially generate those ceilings is going to
13:42shift spending just up because there's more options to even spend on.
13:46Even if the top end option comes down a little bit because they're all a little bit more competitive in pricing or
13:53Trey McBride has a more neutralized year compared to last year.
13:56I still think the average tight end spend is probably going to be a little bit higher.
14:02I think I think a lot of the things that played out last year are going to be somewhat similar this year
14:09in terms of lineup construction, which is going to be ultimately like trying to build your ceiling through surprising mid priced wide
14:15receiver options and build your floor through the really strong running back options and then try to pair correlation around.
14:22Yeah, it's really tight end positions really interesting because similar to season long.
14:26I actually kind of like that mid tier, you know, the Tyler Warren and then the next year after that pits and Laporta and Kraft and Fannin.
14:35It's really if those guys play well and hit, then it won't be as important to like spend up for McBride or
14:41Loveland or if they're not separating, as being said.
14:44So, you know, it kind of goes back to what you think of those guys.
14:49And then even after those guys, we're going to get George Kittle, not on the main week one, but on some main sites.
14:56We get Don Kincaid on some main slates there as well.
15:00brought anything you want to add about tight end before we go to quarterback?
15:04No, I completely agree with everything Drew said on tight end there.
15:08I think that, you know, historically tight end has not been an especially predictable position that, you know, looking at the data
15:15in retrospect, like it pretty much proves out that even if you're just looking at tight ends that are 5% rostered or
15:22higher in ownership, it's like pretty much a random walk.
15:25It's just, you know, complete unpredictability there. But it did show that it was predictable last year.
15:31And again, I think it's heavily skewed by McBride.
15:34Yeah. Okay. On the quarterback stuff, Drew mentioned it there briefly.
15:37The top 0.1% of lineups were spending $5,604 on DraftKings at quarterback last season.
15:41That was down from $6,121 on average in 2024.
15:44I think part of this is due to pricing brought just DraftKings just simply price quarterbacks lower, but they kind of have
15:51to price quarterbacks lower because quarterbacks are scoring so much less.
15:55So what do you think about what happened at quarterback last season?
15:59Again, point one, top 0.1% of lineups only spending 5,600.
16:02That is a very low number on DraftKings, 5,600 for a quarterback.
16:06Yeah, I think there's really three factors at play here.
16:09So one of them, I think goes back to the league dynamics of we're not going to allow explosive plays.
16:15So it's harder for quarterbacks to like really get there and really separate from the rest of the position.
16:21I think it's just like wide receiver in the sense that, you know, we used to see like a bunch of guys
16:28separate hit 30 points or whatever in a given week and be slate winners.
16:33Now it's like if you get into the upper 20s, that's like awesome.
16:37So then at quarterback, if you can just find a guy that gets you like 22 points and he's like on the
16:44lower side of salary last year, you would have taken that every week like guaranteed.
16:48So it kind of didn't matter as much who you played.
16:52And it was just a matter of like, okay, make sure he's correlated with one of your receivers, you know, a typical stack.
16:59So I think that's one factor too. I think there was a little bit of just small sample situations there where Josh
17:06Allen didn't run as much in the regular season.
17:09Lamar had a down season. Like those are kind of the two guys that have really broken the slate recently.
17:15So there, we always have to acknowledge their small sample in the NFL within just a single season.
17:21And I think the third factor is that the NFL has just gotten, you know, as a business, more and more revenue focused.
17:28And there was a time when, you know, Thursday night football was just like jets, Jaguars, like two of the worst teams you could imagine.
17:36And now every single primetime game is a really good quarterback matchup.
17:40You know, you get Patrick Mahomes on like every, uh, every main or every island slate there is every week.
17:46Uh, all these great quarterbacks are out there. And then the NFL is also adding additional island slates every single week.
17:53Like we have a Wednesday night game to start the season next week.
17:57And so if those guys are on the island slates, they're not on the main slate.
18:02And so then it's a situation where it's like, okay, am I going to pay up for like $7,500?
18:08Like, you know, pocket passer that I don't really think has an exceptional ceiling.
18:13No, I'll just pay 5,100 for Sam Darnold and I'll stack him with JSN because at least it's correlated.
18:19So, uh, I think there's just a lot going on there and you put it all together and it made so that
18:26the cheaper quarterback was the way to go. Yeah.
18:29I think it makes a lot of sense. If Sam mentioned the island games, there's so much action on these island games.
18:36It is absolutely insane. We're not going to talk about showdown today, but Cody's put out a bunch of articles and we
18:43cover showdown just massively intensely head to the site or Cody's Twitter.
18:46If you want to learn more, uh, about showdown there.
18:50One thing about quarterback Dink is the same way I feel about, um, season long in quarterback like, okay, I'll show up
18:57with Kyler Murray or Brock Purdy or Bo Nix or Jared Goff or Jackson Dart or Baker Mayfield or Malik Willis or Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold.
19:05Like I could just keep going with all these quarterbacks that are going to likely be priced in the five K's here.
19:12So to me, quarterback is very, very deep. I suspect that we're going to have a lot of them projected very, very close as Sam alluded to.
19:21So yeah, any more thoughts here on what's going on at quarterback in DFS tournaments right now?
19:26Yeah. I was really glad Sam brought up the primetime game stuff because that was one point I was going to bring up as well.
19:34And just that most main slates that you're playing might have one or two quarterbacks that are priced like seven K and above.
19:41And so just in terms of the pricing, if you get a bunch of quarterbacks in the five to six K range
19:48and then one or two, seven K above, you're just like, that's the extra salary gap between those provides a level of
19:55comfort in terms of how, how much they have to outperform that entire tier that it makes it hard to play into those players.
20:03Um, especially when the cap is a little bit tighter last year was a little bit looser on the whole, but still
20:10it just didn't make sense oftentimes to, to look, uh, up to those high end options.
20:15The depth of the quarterback position provides a lot of intrigue in terms of it kind of keeps, it keeps a tier
20:22of quarterbacks priced very similarly, and then keeps ownership like fairly spread out amongst them.
20:27So the ownership becomes interesting in terms of trying to identify which wide receivers are actually going to carry the quarterback ownership
20:34up with them in these, in these tournaments. And it's oftentimes, you know, that, that being a primary factor in terms of
20:41just divvying up the ownership between similarly projected options.
20:43So I think you're still going to want to live in a spot at a quarterback where you're in kind of the
20:50mid tier from a salary perspective, generally the season, I think there's going to be a plethora of options to do so each and every week.
20:59I think the combination of the league scheduling, the depth of the quarterback position this year, I think is going to make that ground very fertile.
21:07And I think you're, you're trying to find spikes with touchdowns, right?
21:11Because a lot of these quarterbacks, the reasons they're not priced as high as everybody else is they can't hit that, that
21:18mega ceiling on the rushing side, uh, that the top end quarterbacks have in the past.
21:23So it's going to be about identifying which offenses, you know, can have an abnormal outsized, uh, scoring environment through the passing.
21:30I do think on a micro level to Brat's point, Lamar Jackson should be healthy this year and return to running.
21:36Like I think he will bounce back as a runner, getting Kevin Petulo out of there, maybe changing Jalen hurts attitude.
21:43I could see Jalen hurts running a ton more and breaking more slates this year.
21:48Jaden Daniels was not healthy at all last year.
21:51He comes back and can break some slates with his legs as well.
21:55And then of course we know about Josh. So I don't want to ignore the high end quarterbacks here.
22:01Like there were definitely some factors last year that played into all of this, uh, quarterback stuff.
22:06Um, by the way, Dink just mentioned ownership. I did want to note for anyone with in season, obviously like we have the best projected ownership.
22:14We're working on it so much. It's like one of the most important things, survivor ownership and DFS projected ownership.
22:21Two of the most important things for people trying to play these games.
22:25Well, this year we're also really improving our FanDuel projected ownership.
22:28We are going to have a dedicated team. You know, we weren't happy with the way our FanDuel projected ownership was last year.
22:36We have a dedicated team that is working on that all week through the weekend to update FanDuel projected ownership as best
22:43as we can for in season product users. Um, oh, one question that I had brought, as I've just mentioned, it strikes
22:50me that these days it seems like there's more quarterbacks that are viable than ever.
22:54And, you know, that's part of the dynamic that we just talked about where the high end guys weren't going off, but we can quantify this.
23:03Do you think that there's actually more quarterbacks viable on a slate these days than there have been previously?
23:09Yeah. So we did look into this question, trying to understand like, are there more, uh, viable quarterbacks on a weekly basis or not?
23:16And the answer is yes. So I think, uh, you know, when we're looking at like top 1% of lineups or top
23:230.1% of lineups, depending on how big the contest is and you know, how high you want to get with your top percentile there.
23:31But, uh, basically we have seen a like greater diversity of the number of unique quarterbacks that make their way into those top lineups.
23:39And I think, you know, it just gets back to the point I was saying before, where there's just not that many quarterbacks that it's separated recently.
23:47And so if nobody's really separating, then it's kind of comes down to, okay, well, did you save salary enough to get
23:54to the other slate breakers on, you know, the given week?
23:58And then did they at least come close enough to ever score the most points?
24:02Because even if your guy doesn't score the most points, like if you're only losing by two to the top score, but
24:09you saved a thousand dollars, like that's just absolutely huge.
24:12And so then it kind of comes down to like, you might as well just correlate them in a smart way so
24:19that if your wide receiver does hit your quarterback is going to hit too.
24:24And I think that's one thing that we, uh, missed a little bit when we were talking about like the high end
24:31separators is like, even when Josh Allen was scoring 40 points, no wide receiver, no tight end would come along with them at times.
24:38And so one, it makes it harder to like hit the rest of the parlay when you're not stacking him.
24:45And if you did stack them, you were, you know, probably worse off for having played him, even though he scored 40
24:52points because Shakir like goose egged you or whatever happened that, uh, really tanked the rest of your lineup.
24:58Um, okay. We mentioned before the loosening of the salary.
25:01So I did think last year on draft Kings, it was looser than it has been historically from a salary standpoint.
25:08In other words, you get more stars than usual, always on FanDuel.
25:11It is pretty loose. I don't like, let's say this sustains dink.
25:15Is there any strategy things that you can think of for people where salaries loose?
25:20We should be doing this. And the way I think of this is actually, it's more for my opponents.
25:26Like the reason I prefer to play on looser salary slates and sites because my opponents can hang themselves so much easier.
25:33Like they have FPS. They want to play Caleb Johnson or whatever comes to their mind.
25:38Like maybe that's okay when it's tight. Some like FPS, IKB, I know better type stuff.
25:43When it's loose, if you're not like really jamming in the best plays, you can really hang yourself quickly.
25:49So I was thinking from an opponent perspective, why I like it loose, but is there anything else that you can say about strategy for loose setups?
25:58I think if you're thinking about pricing on a spectrum of loose to, um, extremely tight, I think, you know, generally if
26:05everything was, everyone was priced the same like preseason DFS, right?
26:08But you're playing during the NFL, of course, this season, there'd be a lot of overlap in lineups because people would just
26:15be able to play the very, very top plays.
26:18And, you know, there would be very, there'd be, it would be harder to differentiate.
26:23If you thought of like the tightest salary cap possible, it might funnel a bunch of people to just like a smaller combination of players ultimately.
26:31So somewhere in between is really like the sweet spot where there's more lineups available to create.
26:36There's more ways to play. There's more ways for your opponents to play.
26:41I tend to think of like what was happening a bit last year with the pricing.
26:46I think two years ago in 2024, 2025, it was too tight where the ranges of what people were playing, especially in the higher stakes was very narrow.
26:55And so it became a little bit more of like a game theory theme and leveling them like a projection game.
27:01Last year, I thought it was much more balanced in terms of the way that teams could build, where you were able to build different types of teams.
27:10Like some teams you could build where you did spend a good bit at wide receiver and some teams you could build
27:17where you, where you went really cheap at wide receiver.
27:20And it wasn't like one or two cheap plays that made a lineup work.
27:25Like we were talking two years ago about like this play, this 2,500 tight end or this 3k wide receiver makes everything work.
27:32And now we got to play him and it just makes it so that you're playing fewer differentiated players compared to everybody else.
27:39So the way that I think of it is when the pricing spectrum is a little bit towards the looser side, not
27:46so loose that everybody's priced ultimately the same. It opens up more pathways for you to be able to build.
27:53I think as you alluded to, it allows your opponents to potentially hang themselves a little bit.
27:58But when it's really tight, I think, yes, you can get people making drastic mistakes, but you get more like more sharp
28:05people just building towards the same structure of a lineup in terms of where you're getting the salary relief and where you're getting your spend.
28:13And so I think if pricing sticks to what it was last year, I think there's just more variance in what you
28:20can build to build a successful winning lineup. I think two years ago, things got a little bit narrow.
28:26And that's where we saw like all the double tight end with a tight end punt lineups, like ultimately getting to the top.
28:33I think last year was a little bit more balanced.
28:36And I hope that continues going forward. I mean, it's just not fun.
28:40I didn't show up here to play on DraftKings or whatever so that I can jam a 2,500 tight end into my
28:47flex, like, and then pray that he gets seven points.
28:51You know, so I'm glad the way they did it last year.
28:54I hope that they stick with that. I want to get some stacking and bring back stuff, Brad.
29:00But before we do that, I want to talk about defense because it is we don't talk about it in season long, probably as much as we should.
29:09And in DFS, I do think it is very, very important.
29:13Seemingly every year, it seems like to me, Brad, at least the top 0.1% of tournament lineups are spending more than the field at DST.
29:20Like last year in the Millie, the average 0.1, top 0.1% lineup spent over $3,000, 3115.
29:26That strikes me as very high. So any thoughts on what's going on with spending up at defense?
29:31Should we all be trying to spend up at defense more in tournaments here, Brad?
29:36Yeah, it's a really interesting question because if you just start trying to look at how predictable defensive scoring is, it's easily the least predictive position.
29:44I think intuitively, everybody would guess that. And then you look at the actual data and it shows it too.
29:51The correlation between defensive scoring and defensive salary is less than 1%.
29:54It's basically nothing. So that's to say that it's completely random.
29:58At the same time, we do see this consistent trend that spending up at defense on average is better season over season.
30:05So the way I interpret it is kind of two things.
30:08One, the defenses are still priced the way they are for a reason.
30:12Like the bad defense going up against a powerhouse offense is always going to be the cheapest defense of the week on DraftKings.
30:20And similarly, like a really good defense, regardless of who they're playing, is usually going to be the most expensive defense of
30:27the week, but especially if they're playing a bad team.
30:30So I think what you can kind of glean from that is, even though we might not be able to predict the
30:37actual results on a weekly basis, on average, those expensive defenses just provide a ceiling that the rest don't.
30:43Like in any given week could a random DST, like get a punt return touchdown and they get a fluky fumble six return.
30:50Like, yeah, of course. But on average, like when the Seahawks are at home against a middling offense and their defense is
30:57playing really well, they have their home field advantage.
31:00Like, yeah, they're going to look better than the Dolphins on the road against like Josh Allen.
31:05And so even though we might not realize that on a like actual, an actual point scored basis, I think we can
31:12predict the ceiling potential of a given defense. And then people also just don't like to spend up at defense.
31:19And I think there's this long, you know, long told idea in the industry that kind of everybody points out of like,
31:26just don't spend up at defense because it's not predictable.
31:29But people overly do that. So the cheaper defenses end up getting a little bit more ownership than they should.
31:35And they're played in cash for good reason. But then you come up with a situation where not only are you getting
31:42a higher ceiling, but you're also getting lower ownership.
31:45So it's kind of like a ceiling leverage play there that you can only get for spending up like $500.
31:51And you can't really get that other positions. Yeah.
31:54For so cheap. I think that last point is really the most important thing because I talk about this in cash.
32:01You know, it is tough to spend a lot on defense and cash and feel good about your team that flows through
32:08to tournaments and where the punts, the pun defenses get over owned relative to some of the ones with the big ceiling.
32:15Last thing on defense I want to talk about.
32:18And by the way, all this data that we're giving is being pulled from DraftKings CSVs of tournaments.
32:23We would talk about FanDuel more, but they do not allow us to have the CSVs of tournaments after they are done.
32:30Running back plus defense is, you know, as we start to get into stacking here has been, I think, a worthwhile thing to consider here year over year.
32:39In other words, when you play Bijan Robinson, you play him with Falcons defense.
32:44Or when you play Quinshawn Junkins, you play him with Browns defense.
32:48I think the data shows, Broth, that that is successful.
32:51Is it successful enough to actually prioritize it in your tournament lineups?
32:55Yeah, this one's a little tricky. So I think if you're using Sims, whether it's for classic format or showdown format, you've
33:02seen that the Sims like the running back defense correlation.
33:05And I think it makes perfect sense. It's easy for us to tell a story that, OK, if my defense is playing
33:12really well, they're getting a lot of third down stops and forcing punts.
33:16If they're getting turnovers that put my offense in the red zone, then great.
33:20Like my running back is going to be able to, one, have more scoring opportunities and to have more like time where
33:27my offense isn't forced into throwing the ball. You can just grind the clock away.
33:32So it's an easy story to tell. And so because of that, I think the field overplays it a bit.
33:38So even though it is positively correlated, you only want to do it to the extent where it's still providing leverage against the field.
33:46So if I'm playing Bichon Robinson and I want to play him with the Falcons defense, but like 50% of all the
33:53Bichon teams out there also have the Falcons defense.
33:56At that point, it might be a bad play.
33:59So I think that's really what you have to consider.
34:02If you're playing a lower owned running back with a lower owned defense, like that could be like a really big leverage play.
34:09And this is something that Leoni touched on an article that he just put out.
34:14I think it was yesterday or the day before on the site where, you know, you really have to be careful of
34:21those combinatorial ownerships because if you get in a situation where, yeah, you're playing this guy that's low owned, but everybody else
34:28who's playing that guy has the same bring back or the same stack partner or whatever, you're all of a sudden losing
34:35all that leverage from having played the low owned guy.
34:38And it can end up being a lot less plus EV than you're expecting it to be.
34:43Yeah. And like this is what Sims are for, right?
34:47And for anyone who is interested in Sims, those are run through the Solver, our sister company.
34:52And then you can check out more on DFS Sims in the tab, NFL tab, tools and research, and then head down to NFL DFS Sims.
35:00But yeah, I mean, you need to be able to pick up on that stuff on when 50% of the Bijan teams
35:07are also using Falcons defense and stuff like that.
35:10And I think Sims do a really good job of that.
35:14If you are thinking about playing DFS this season or playing DFS this season, I know I'm biased, but I honestly do
35:20believe it's really hard to compete without an ETR in-season subscription.
35:24All the sharpest people use our projections and our projected ownership for a reason, because we spend an absolutely insane amount of
35:31money and time to ensure that they are the best and most up to date.
35:36So over the next week or month, you'll undoubtedly come across a ton of people telling you about strategies and projections and the best plays or whatever.
35:44As everyone who really knows, knows DFS is our core product.
35:48This is a year-round thing for us. The origin of ETR was actually for DFS.
35:53And so I think any DFS players who have had our in-season product in the past can vouch for that.
35:59So again, head to EstablishTheRun.com. Check out the content schedule for NFL in-season.
36:03Subscribe page for NFL in-season. We do have annual, weekly, and monthly options available there.
36:08All right, Dink. Let's get more into stacking here.
36:11You know, there was a time when it was a novel approach in DFS to pair your quarterback with a wide receiver.
36:18And then it was like, oh my gosh, I can pair him with two of my wide receivers.
36:23And then it was like, oh my God, I can pair him with a tight end and a running back.
36:30And all of this stuff is helping me having to get fewer things right.
36:34And obviously when something does go right, it goes right for a lot of guys on the same team here in the same lineup.
36:42Are you still into stacking singles, doubles? Are you ever playing naked?
36:45What's your general feeling on stacking here these days, Dink, before we go to Brat for the numbers?
36:51Yeah, I'm still, I think one of the big takeaways that I had from last year's show and the data that Sam
36:58had put together was that essentially like, even though I'm stacking often, I'm probably still not stacking enough in terms of correlation
37:05with game pieces and depth of game pieces and different things like that.
37:09So I would say like almost every lineup I submit on a Sunday is stacked.
37:14Very, very unusual exceptions. There might be an unusual exception if there's like a backup rushing oriented quarterback, like a Malik Willis.
37:21It's like, you know, really cheap or something like that.
37:24But for the most part, I'm trying to find stacks.
37:27And one of the reasons I actually got away from playing some of the high end quarterbacks last year is I was
37:34just having a hard time, you know, finding good stacks with them ultimately.
37:38So I kind of live in the mid-range, mostly stack.
37:42And then what I've been focused on of late is really trying to lean into even more on the stacking correlation side,
37:49not necessarily running a simple template like, oh, every stack quarterback has two pass catchers and one bring back and different things like that.
37:56But trying to look and lean into the spots that I think there's more opportunity to get really deep into one game.
38:03And I think this certainly happens in the middle of the season with more bye weeks when the slates get smaller in
38:10the size in terms of the number of teams that are competing on them.
38:15And that's where some of the, you know, double bringbacks, the onslaughts, different things like that, where a heavy percentage of your lineup is invested in one game.
38:24That was the takeaway last year. And it's funny, we saw, you know, in the data that Sam provided for this year
38:30that people at the higher stakes were doing this more frequently and still not enough.
38:35So it remains a focal point for me going forward is to continue to lean into, you know, one offensive game environment
38:42a little bit more heavily, especially during the bye weeks when the slate sizes come down in the player pool in terms
38:49of the number of options you're competing with to generate a difference making score comes down.
38:54Yeah, I'm curious, Dink, when you'd say getting deeper into games, like, and I struggle with this too.
39:00Like, obviously, if I'm playing Caleb as my quarterback in a tournament, I need Caleb to go off.
39:06Does that mean that I can play Kalief Raymond?
39:09Or am I always going Caleb, Burden, Loveland and stuff like that?
39:12You know what I mean? Like, how deep are you willing to get once you start stacking?
39:18Because sometimes I feel like, God, I'm just pushing it too far with some of these thin wide receiver threes and stuff like that.
39:25Yeah, I do think it depends on the type of contest you're playing as well.
39:30I will note, like, similarly, when we were talking about the defense stuff in terms of spending up at defense, if you're
39:37trying to hit the pure nuts, like the absolute nuts on the slate, I think you have to spend a little bit
39:44more at defense in, like, the melee than you do in, like, the spy.
39:49Because the pure nuts is going to come with that ceiling at defense to separate.
39:53Otherwise, you might finish, like, 17th with, like, you know, a cheaper defense that kind of gets you home.
39:59I think there's some similar comparisons with how deep you're getting into things, whereas the smaller the field, the more it makes sense to get deeper into things.
40:08The more it makes sense to kind of concentrate your bets.
40:12The larger the field, the melee contests and different things like that, you might want to loosen up in terms of how deep you're getting.
40:20But I'm still talking about, in these situations, having a quarterback stacked with two players, two pass catchers, perhaps in the Caleb
40:27example, maybe one of Bird in our Rome and then also Loveland.
40:30And then let's say, you know, they're, you know, they're playing Carolina week one.
40:35So maybe not the best game environment to stack.
40:38But let's say they're playing the Lions, you know, in week 17.
40:41Can I fit in Gibbs and Jamison Williams? Can I fit in LaPorta and Jamison Williams?
40:47Like trying to figure out what combinations can ultimately fit when a team has somebody who's going to be on the field
40:54a bunch that is a salary relief play and you've already gotten deep into the game, especially at a position like tight
41:01end that doesn't have a lot of opportunity costs to it normally.
41:04This year might be different with the level of tight ends.
41:08I think those are great spots to get into deep.
41:11So a lot of times what I had been doing in the past is, let's say, like the Rams double stack of
41:18Stafford Adams Puka was just so expensive to get to.
41:21But if you make it a triple stack with Colby Parkinson last year, who was like a mid price tight end a
41:28bunch, if the average price starts to get a little bit friendlier.
41:32And so doing things like that, I think, is more of what I'm talking about in terms of getting deeper into games.
41:39Okay. Brought from a data perspective, what's working? What's not working in terms of single stacks, double stacks, naked, anything for you on stacking?
41:47Yeah, just from a pure data perspective, the field is still not stacking enough.
41:51If we break that down by the different types of stacks, I think the field is like basically caught up and it's
41:58stack single stacking at roughly the same rate as the very best lineups on the whole.
42:03So it's less about the field single stacking and it's more about, like Drew said, they're not double stacking enough.
42:09They're not onslaughting enough where onslaughts would be pairing your quarterback with any three skill players.
42:14So that could be any three of wide receiver tight end running back with your quarterback.
42:19And so this is something we saw last year and the field just still hasn't caught up enough.
42:25I think when you're looking at the spy contests, so that's the $100 single entry spy, the $200 single entry double spy,
42:32those contests, the field is closer to optimal, but it's still not enough.
42:36And in the Millie Maker, the field is like even further from optimal.
42:40So I think it's just a situation where, you know, especially on the like eight game slates in the middle of the
42:47season, like Drew was saying, there could only be one game that really shoots out.
42:52And if that's the game that shoots out, like you need all the pieces from it and you can kind of do it in a correlated way.
43:01And I think back to the like macro NFL trends we've been talking about, I think as the league continues to go
43:08run heavy, as the league continues to try and avoid, you know, creating these explosive plays for the opposing offenses, it creates
43:15a larger likelihood over time that there's only going to be a single game or even two games in a given week that really shoot out.
43:23So if, if most of the games are scoring like 40 points on average, and then you find the game that has
43:3060, 65 points in it, like, that's awesome. Just get all the pieces from that game, especially when some of the teams
43:37that have done that the most over the past couple of seasons, like the lions, like the Buccaneers, when the Bucs offense
43:44was rolling, like those kind of offenses are already pretty condensed.
43:47So like, I don't think you should just go blindly double stacking or onslaughting any teams out there.
43:53And it, you know, to Drew's example of the Rams, like it gets expensive at times.
43:58The, the Bengals double stack has gotten really expensive at times, but when you get the cheaper ones, like golf and JMO,
44:05uh, weren't that expensive for a long time. And, uh, uh, Baker Mayfield plus like Mike Evans and Kate Otten wasn't that expensive for a long time.
44:14So like you can find these condensed offenses that have the ceiling potential.
44:18And I think that's when you really like push the chips in on them, but I don't think like every week necessarily creates great onslaught opportunities.
44:26Yeah. We'll talk more about small field versus large field in a minute, but I do think that that is, you know,
44:33an important part when you're thinking about how many pieces of a game that you want to have.
44:39Speaking of pieces of a game, we kind of touched on it already, but bring backs were such a popular subject one
44:46or two years ago in the DFS streets. And by bring back, I mean, if you, if the lions are playing the
44:53Rams and you play a staff for double, a bring back would be anyone on the lions.
44:58And so, you know, that is clear. Having bring back is good.
45:02Leonie just wrote a whole article on this, on the site.
45:05I don't want to, uh, belabor the point, but brought anything quickly to add on bring backs.
45:11Yeah. Similar to what we're seeing with the stack rates, like the field is doing a better job than it used to,
45:18but it's still not using a bring back often enough.
45:21And it's especially not using a double bring back often enough.
45:24So similar to, you know, the double stacks and onslaughts being, uh, more successful than the field is playing for the double
45:31bring back is also more successful than the field is playing for.
45:35And that doesn't have to just be like two wide receivers.
45:39It could be a running back and a wide receiver that kind of compliment each other.
45:44That just suggests that the opposing, uh, offense against your quarterback is also putting up a lot of points.
45:50And if they have a fairly condensed offense as well, like you can just eat up most of the fantasy points there
45:57just through, uh, you know, a wide receiver getting a bonus and a running back getting two touchdowns.
46:02All right. I want to move to a topic that I think is, is super interesting.
46:08And people, I talk about this on the solo pod every year when the chalk goes off anecdotally to me.
46:14And I think to a lot of people out there, it feels like the best plays are hitting more often.
46:20In other words, the plays that we have projected best, um, the chalk is performing well more often.
46:26I guess the first question brought is, is this narrative true?
46:29Is the chalk actually more successful now than it's been in years past of DFS?
46:34Yeah. So my view is that in short, like, no, the chalk is not significantly better than it used to be.
46:41I do think that like we have proven to ourselves, our projections at ETR have continued to improve every single year, year over year.
46:48And that's, you know, like a hundred percent true.
46:51That said, it doesn't mean that the market is continuing to play the best plays every week to a greater success.
46:58So again, you know, just kind of looking at correlations between ownership and, uh, and actual fantasy points scored.
47:04It really hasn't improved significantly over the years. And in 2024, even only two seasons ago, it was like one of the
47:11worst seasons in recent, uh, history for that case.
47:14So overall, like, I think the short answer is no, but I do think what is happening is the field kind of
47:21gets tilted when they see a really chalky lineup win a GPP.
47:25And that has actually happened more. So it's kind of two different, two different things here.
47:30One, the chalk is not hitting at a higher rate, but the winning lineups have typically contained more and more chalk.
47:36And I think what it really comes down to is there's just like a wider spread adoption of SIM tools across the industry.
47:44And what the SIMs have shown us is that it is okay to play a little less contrarian than we previously thought.
47:51So, you know, whereas before we used to maybe want to make sure we had like two or three contrarian pieces in our lineup each week.
47:59And the SIMs have shown us like, you don't have to get completely off the board and it's okay to eat like
48:06some of the really chalk pieces each week because they're kind of chalk and really great plays for a reason.
48:12Obviously, there's always a threshold at which like, okay, this is too chalky.
48:16But the SIMs have shown us that it is okay to play.
48:20And I think that has helped the best players make better lineups.
48:24And those are the lineups that are kind of funneling to the top on a weekly basis.
48:29And it's just creating a situation where people see that and it's like this overreaction of, oh, the chalk is smashing.
48:36Yeah, you know, and again, this is anecdotal. But for me last year, I would say the first maybe like eight or
48:43nine weeks, I remember thinking to myself, I make, you know, seven, eight tournament teams every week.
48:48And for the first eight weeks of the season, my cash team was my highest scoring team every single week.
48:55And I was like, oh, I mean, why even make, why even spend my time making tournament teams every week?
49:01Like my cash team was my highest scoring team.
49:04So like there was definitely like something going on there.
49:07Towards the end of the season, it wasn't like that as much.
49:11But Dink, what do you think about this whole concept of chalk?
49:15And I know Dink coined the very famous phrase, what do you win when you win?
49:20It's great and all to put your cash team in the tournament and finish 50th or whatever.
49:25That's not gonna get you very much money. I didn't win very much when I won.
49:30What do I win when I win means trying to actually get first.
49:34So Dink, what do you think about the current landscape of chalk and DFS?
49:39Yeah, so I agree with most of what Sam said in terms of I think people using Sims are generating lineups that
49:46are naturally like a little bit chalkier than they have been in the past.
49:50And those lineups are competing better at the high end.
49:53But I do think 2025 was like an outlier year in terms of chalk hitting relative to the last four years.
50:00If you look at like Sam provided a table for us, that was the correlation between ownership and DraftKings points.
50:06And at quarterback, it was the highest last year of the last four years.
50:11At running back, it was the highest of the last four years.
50:15At wide receiver, it was the second highest. At tight end, it was the highest.
50:19And at defense, it was like neutral, basically. So I do think in 2024 was like the lowest in most of those years.
50:27So I think the difference between 2024 and 2025 made things feel even more significant.
50:31Plus the combination of users using more Sims and maybe playing a little bit more chalk, those lineups funneling up.
50:38I know there were people who literally won GPPs with cash lineups last year.
50:42So the what do you win when you win mantra even took a hit last year because people were actually winning some GPPs with cash lineups on occasion.
50:51I think it is a combination of the league getting a little bit more defensive on the whole.
50:57So they're really good offenses. They're fewer and farther between.
51:00We know where the points are kind of coming since they're fewer and farther between.
51:05And as a result, it's a little bit easier to predict in terms of where the points are coming.
51:11Now, if we get more spread top tier offenses in play, maybe that will change a little bit more going forward.
51:17But I think one of the lessons that we've learned in the last few years is that chalk is not necessarily bad.
51:24Just in general, like playing chalk is not bad.
51:27It's playing combinations of chalk pieces that start to narrow your path to winning.
51:32And that's ultimately like what we keep trying to hit home in the content that we provide our in-season subscribers is that
51:39you can play this like 45% owned running back.
51:42That looks like a really strong play. Just be aware of the combinations of players you're adding on to that very strong
51:49running back because you start to narrow your path a little bit more.
51:53Now, sometimes those narrow paths can still wait, even if it's a narrow path, if things break really right.
51:59And I think we saw that happen a couple times last year that was really frustrating for tournament players.
52:05I think it's unlikely for us to match last year in terms of what we saw in terms of chalk hitting.
52:11It's more likely that we get a little bit of a reversion to mean and quarterback and running back ownership relative to
52:18points scored regresses in terms of the predictive power it had last year.
52:22So I think it's something that did happen to some extent last year.
52:27I think it's overplayed in terms of how it happened and why it's happening.
52:31And I think it's less likely to recur this year, even if you look at the overall trend of like the last five years.
52:39Is the field getting better at playing DFS? Yes.
52:42Yeah. Yeah. I think that's well said and agreed.
52:44I do think like in my head, at least brought certain positions are more likely to fail as chalk.
52:50And so when I'm making teams, I'm like, you know, 40% running back, you know, our projections at running back, we feel
52:57really good about the volume that goes in 40% of wide receiver.
53:01I'm like, man, there's so much that could go wrong.
53:04Offensive line could play terrible. The quarterback could play terrible.
53:08They could go, the ball could be schemed somewhere else due to matchup reasons.
53:12I don't know. In my head, at least brought a 40% running back is a better play than a 40% wide receiver.
53:19I get that kind of sounds kind of fishy.
53:22So I want to confirm with you. Do you think that that is the case?
53:27Are certain positions at chalk better than others? Yeah, 100%.
53:30And the data does show this, that, you know, running back is the position, of course, that is like the best chalk
53:37in a vacuum because it is the most predictable position.
53:40It's very volume based. You know, you can generally figure out which teams are going to be in scoring position for those
53:47running backs to have touchdown opportunities and all those kind of things.
53:51So overall, yes, running back is the most, you know, predictive on average.
53:55That said, it does garner the most chalk as a reason or for that reason.
54:00So like, you know, we see on a regular basis, especially in like small field, single entry, where whoever the like chalk
54:07running back of the week is our like ownership algo will default to saying like, okay, they're going to be 35% owned.
54:14And then we start having internal conversations like, okay, do we need to move them up to 50% owned?
54:20And all of a sudden they flip at 70% owned.
54:23And it's like the field kind of over plays into that idea that running back is the best chalk.
54:29So yes, it is, but it doesn't mean that it always is going to be once the, you know, actual ownership is revealed.
54:36And the Sims are great just for helping us trying to figure out like, okay, I like this lineup that I built
54:43and I think it looks really good. And then you can go into the solver and use the Sims and say, okay,
54:50well, what happens if I do bump that running backs ownership up to 70%?
54:54Is it still going to look good? And you can test it that way to kind of answer that question.
55:01Okay. I just want to spend a minute on really low owned plays.
55:05So, you know, a lot of people's goal, it seems like it's not to win.
55:10It's to like be a hero for playing a 1% guy, you know, and it's like, congratulations.
55:15You played a 1% guy on your Sclancy Bucks.
55:18You didn't actually win any money. We kind of see this in golf.
55:22Where a lot of people run their optimizer, like, let me see all the optimals, but one, I need one player that's under 10% projected ownership.
55:30Do you think that these type of thin plays, 1%, 2%, anything under 5%, good, bad, should we all have a 5% guy in our lineup?
55:39And I'm talking about kind of larger field now.
55:41Let's just talk about the Millie for a second.
55:44Yeah, I think it's really interesting that you make the comparison, the golf.
55:48And I think in sports like golf, like it is very viable to have these like mega low owned guys because everybody
55:55has the same opportunity in golf and it's a very high variance sport.
55:59I think the big difference in NFL and other sports that are driven by opportunity is the field has gotten really sharp.
56:06We at ETR have gotten very sharp at being able to like project opportunity very well.
56:12And so usually any guy that's going to get great opportunity is going to be owned to some extent.
56:18So like maybe on like a 12 game slate, like we have to open the season.
56:23And sure, there's going to be some guys that fly under the radar, going to be one, 2% owned, even though they're
56:30going to be, you know, maybe the legitimate wide receiver two on their team.
56:34And are going to be out there for a large portion of the snaps.
56:38But once we get into like the eight game slates and that kind of thing, all those guys are probably going to
56:45be at least like 5% owned at best. So I do think it kind of creates a situation where it's harder to
56:52get unique simply by finding those like, you know, diamonds in the rough kind of plays.
56:58And so I think that the field is continuing to overplay it a little bit.
57:02And when you look at the top 1% of lineups versus the rest, you often see that the lineups that don't even
57:09cash are the lineups that are getting too contrarian or too off the board.
57:14And the lineups that are like funneling to the top are more like intelligently built lineups that have a lower ownership on
57:21average sometimes, but don't always have those like mega low owned players in general.
57:25I mean, Dink, you're playing a lot of large field stuff.
57:29How hard are you trying actively to find guys that are single digits sub 5% ownership?
57:34So the thing that I really want to highlight here is I think there's I think the easiest way that I'd summarize
57:41the data that Sam has provided us is that the field is too obsessed with chasing a 1% owned play when a
57:486% owned play is a great play. And that's ultimately like what it comes down to if you look at the data
57:55in terms of where, you know, number of players sub 10%, sub 5%, the top winning lineups are playing, they're still playing
58:02a couple players that are sub 5%, like one to two a week.
58:06But those players are more like four and a half, 4.8%, 4.2%, not 0.3%.
58:10And so I think you still want to crave or you still want to search out the ability to be unique and different.
58:17But you need to understand the power of having a few 7, 8% players in a lineup and how it starts to
58:24make your lineup have a narrower path on the whole as opposed to finding one sub 1% player.
58:30That is a that is a very narrow path that you're creating for yourself with that one player carrying the burden and responsibility of making your lineup unique.
58:39Whereas when you have three or four players that are in that sub 10% range, but maybe above 5% even, you start
58:46to create more unique paths because the combination of those players all used together is very low.
58:51And so I think ultimately, like the power in being unique and contrarian is an understanding that you don't have to find
58:58one player that nobody is talking about. Instead, you have to find two to four players that people just aren't valuing their upside as much as they have.
59:07Yes, that's all true. I do want to for the record, Dink was trying to get me to take Xavion Thomas in
59:14round 20 last night in our draft speaking of 1% players, but yes, totally agree.
59:19Okay. Before we get out of here, I do want to talk about large field versus small field.
59:25We probably have not highlighted this enough. There are so many huge differences.
59:29Dink's playing everything, but he is playing a lot of large field stuff.
59:33Sam plays mostly small field stuff. I'll go to you.
59:36Any heuristics or quick tips for players here that are interested in single entry, free max?
59:41I would consider small field anything, I don't know, 2,000 entries or lower.
59:45Yeah, I think the big difference between small field and large field is that in large field, you have to get closer
59:52to the pure nuts, closest to the pure optimal that you can.
59:56It's rare that anybody's going to hit the actual pure optimal, but you have to get closer to that.
60:02Whereas in small field, I don't really think about like, okay, how is my lineup going to run into the perfect ceiling?
60:09I think about if I'm playing in a contest of 300 lineups, how am I going to beat these other 300 lineups?
60:16And so I think doing things where you're kind of weighing the floor ceiling combination a little bit more is more viable.
60:23Whereas in you don't care about that floor so much in large field, but in small field, you know, we've shown that double stacks are more viable.
60:32And part of that is not just because of the game environment, but it's also because if you don't hit that perfect
60:39game environment and you stack, you know, Amin Ra and Jameson Williams with goth, one of them could hit 30 points and the other one could hit 15.
60:47And in small field, that's like really powerful that you still have that floor from the other one.
60:53And so if you're just, you can just like bet on single offenses to like go off at a time.
61:00And as long as it's not just completely funneled through a single player and everybody eats at least a little bit, it's
61:07going to give you a really solid floor. Which then gives the rest of your lineup a position to kind of propel
61:13you to the very top of the leaderboard, or at least is going to help you get a steadier cash rate if
61:20you're able to get on those offenses. Yeah. And, you know, really important for anyone using Sims to be sure you select
61:27the contest that you're playing for when you run your Sims.
61:31In other words, like it is going to pick up on what types of lineups actually can win here versus needing the pure nuts, as Sam said.
61:39And yeah, when I'm playing small field, like I'm way more likely to run a Baker triple or, or a Goff triple than I would.
61:47I would not feel good about doing that in the Millie maker or even things with, you know, 20,000 or 15,000 entries there as well.
61:55Dink, anything to add on small field or anything you want to add about specifically large field tournaments?
62:01The thing that I'd note is like a, and I don't love using heuristics in DFS because every slate is unique.
62:08Every pricing structure is unique. But in general, if you want to think through the difference between small field and large field,
62:15the larger the field that you're playing, the more of an upside you need to hit.
62:20The path to creating more upside is ultimately through more balance in finding more players that can really outperform their salary.
62:26It's really hard to find a couple cheap players that really, really crush.
62:31Now there might be some weeks where injuries allow this to happen, where there are really cheap players that are in great spots and projecting well.
62:39And it might not be the best week to go balanced in that regard.
62:43But many of these weeks, I think a lot of the data shows just generally like being a little bit more balanced
62:50than you probably think in terms of your roster, cutting out the roster spots that like everybody on your roster ideally has
62:57a chance of getting 20, like has a real chance of getting 20 if you're playing the really, really large field stuff.
63:04And I think that's where the data on the DST stuff really showed is that too much, especially like really cheap chalk
63:11defenses that's just making the salary work. That stuff is OK, more OK in small field, really bad in large field.
63:18I think you really need to have a lineup that is giving you a chance to find ceiling at all the positions and all the contributions through it.
63:27And so that's the way that I'd like a quick, simpler heuristic.
63:31It's not going to fit every single slate perfectly.
63:33But just in general, I'm trying to find more balance to the lineup, both in terms of salary spends and in terms
63:40of situations I'm trying to exploit in a small field lineup.
63:44As you alluded to, I might be only trying to exploit one game or two games in a large field lineup.
63:51I still might have a heavy concentration of trying to get into one or two games, but I'm understanding that I'm likely
63:57going to need to pull another upside piece from a different game to ultimately like find my way to the very top of the largest field contests.
64:06All right. I think we have said it all on DFS tournaments for 2026.
64:10Again, I know we mentioned a lot of stuff that we've learned from Sims.
64:15It's really a cool thing to use to help you build really good lineups.
64:19Again, if you want to use Sims, head to the NFL tab on ETR.
64:24We made a ton of improvements that you can read about.
64:27Be sure you're following The Solver on Twitter for more information on that.
64:31But yeah, check out the Sims stuff. And then also ETR in season, our first run.
64:36This is very exciting. I don't want to commit to anything, but I believe our first run of projections for the Wednesday
64:43night opener, sickening, but Wednesday night opener will come out Monday night.
64:47So clear the calendar. Monday night, first run of projections for the Wednesday night game.
64:52That will be a showdown slate. Highly, highly recommend you read all the showdown content that we have as you get ready for that slate.
65:00And yes, Sims are functional for showdown as well.
65:03We put a bunch of improvements in there too.
65:06All right. For. Dink. For Brat. For everyone behind the scenes, we'll put an unbelievable amount of work into making our projections
65:13better for this season and our Sims better. This season, producer Ryan, producer Luke.
65:17I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.
