0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1018 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and we did it.
0:11The 2026 NFL season has finally arrived. I have reached the full 3.9 inches.
0:16The Solo Pod is back. Normally, the Solo Pod will run Tuesdays during the season.
0:22Typically, all the time. Audio only, so be sure that you are subscribed on podcast feeds.
0:28But I wanted to pop on here a little early because I have a few things I wanted to talk about.
0:36Today's show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets and one that is now available in every U.S.
0:45state. Longtime listeners of this show know that I care most about getting the best price.
0:51I'm not just talking about players ADP and fantasy.
0:54I'm talking about making any predictions. around sports. Like, I legit feel sick when I don't get the best odds.
1:02And that's why I've been so interested in Polymarket.
1:05Because Poly is a prediction market where traders trade against each other, we can often get the best price, aka the biggest payout.
1:14For example, best price on sportsbooks right now for Jameer Gibbs, offensive player deer is 6-1.
1:20On Poly, it's 12%, almost 7-1. And the other thing about it, especially with the future stuff, we can trade out of our positions at any time.
1:30At market odds, you don't get that gouging that you see from sportsbooks cash out buttons.
1:36Perhaps most importantly, there's no limiting or banning across any market on Poly.
1:41And there are tons of markets, traditional ones, futures, alts, everything.
1:45Even if you're interested in player props or some of the smaller markets like I am, you will not get the dreaded max is 26 cents screen.
1:55Right now, Poly is offering new users a $50 bonus if you deposit $10 with promo code ETR.
2:02So I head to Polymarket US right now and use promo code ETR to get that $50 signup bonus.
2:09Figured I should start with a trip report from my surgery.
2:13For anyone who missed it, the TLDR is basically, in the spring, I found out I had thyroid cancer through preventative screening.
2:21If you're interested in more details around that, go back to episode 997.
2:26I believe we put that out around July 15th.
2:29Anyway, can't thank everyone enough for all the messages and love that you sent.
2:35It truly was overwhelming. Like, apparently Boomer Esiason was talking about me on WFAN.
2:40Like, the doctors at the hospital heard the podcast.
2:43My wife's friends. And then obviously, you know, all of you listeners who I consider friends as well.
2:50Just crazy stuff. But it feels like I owe you an update on what's happened since I recorded that pod.
2:58I recorded that pod a few days before the surgery.
3:01So, trip report from the surgery. I show up to the hospital for the day of the surgery.
3:08I really wasn't nervous at all. You know, I've been under anesthesia before.
3:13I know how incredible anesthesia is. I know there's no pain involved.
3:18You know, like, you're out. They could literally do anything to you and you won't feel it.
3:24So, I'm not nervous. I'm sitting there in the waiting, in the prep area.
3:29They put the IV in. I put on the gown.
3:33Anesthesiologist comes in. He's asking me a ton of questions.
3:37One of the questions he asked me was, have you done any drugs in the last six months?
3:43And I know, you know, I'm supposed to say no.
3:47But I felt like it was a spot I needed to tell the truth.
3:52So, I say, yeah, I've done drugs in the last six months.
3:57And he says, okay, what have you done? And so, I pause and I say, wow, how much time do you have, brother?
4:06And, you know, so he's laughing. So, I say, I've been smoking weed.
4:10You know, I've been doing some mushrooms, a little bit of acid, some MDMA.
4:16You know, I just keep going on and on.
4:19And the guy is like, oh, you know, okay, cool.
4:23But no heroin or hard drugs this week, right?
4:26I mean, my wife is sitting there next to my bed, just stone cold, humiliated, like burying her face in her hands.
4:34But it was funny. You know, the anesthesiologist was laughing.
4:38It was good. But then, a little later, the nurse comes over.
4:43And she's asking me some questions about my health, medications, you know, my pharmacy.
4:48And she says, have you ever been prescribed oxycodone before?
4:52And I say, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, I know what to do.
4:57You crush them up and you do them off your wife's stomach, right?
5:02So, and, you know, the nurse was laughing. She loved it.
5:06So, yeah, I felt like my material was on point heading into the surgery.
5:11You know, if I croaked in the OR, at least my bits killed.
5:16You know, my last bits killed, you know, no pun intended.
5:20So, anyways, some more time goes by. Eventually, they wheel me back to the OR.
5:26They say they're giving me some medicine to make me tired.
5:30And next memory I have is waking up. Like, it's so crazy.
5:35They literally sliced open the base of my neck, removed half of my thyroid gland, sewed me back up, two hours later,
5:43I'm walking to my car to go home. I mean, my neck was sore for one to two weeks afterwards, but I
5:51was never really in any severe pain. I didn't really need the oxys.
5:56I did the surgery on a Tuesday. I coached my son's basketball team on a Thursday.
6:02I mean, I'm just so impressed by modern medicine every day.
6:06It really was not a horrible experience at all, the surgery and the recovery.
6:11Like, not at all. So, I have to give a big shout out to everyone at University of Colorado, Anschutz Cancer Center.
6:20Incredibly organized, knowledgeable, skilled. Obviously, you know, I didn't want to have to go through this, but they made it all so
6:28smooth and successful, just forever indebted to them. Anyway, so anytime you have cancer, any kind of cancer, I believe, after you
6:36remove the tumors, the surgeon removes the tumors, send it to the lab to do a pathology report.
6:43The good news was my pathology report came back perfect.
6:47None of the cancer escaped my right thyroid gland.
6:50There were no abnormal variants. You know, just the best case scenario.
6:55And I suspect that's at least partly because I caught this so early, you know, before symptoms.
7:01Again, head back to the July 15th solopod for more on that.
7:05So, going forward, I'll just need to be monitored with ultrasounds of my neck and blood work.
7:12You know, I'm not 100% out of the woods.
7:15There's risk of recurrence, but my doctors think that my specific case is low risk for recurrence.
7:22I'm pretty optimistic on it overall. I guess at this point, my biggest concern isn't really recurrence of thyroid cancer.
7:29The biggest concern, at least in my head, is that this thyroid cancer thing makes me more likely to develop other cancers
7:37in other part of my body, you know, cancers that are more fast-growing or more dangerous.
7:43There is zero data to suggest that that's the case.
7:47Docs say that's not true. You know, there's no correlation.
7:51But yeah, I mean, it's tough not to think about.
7:55But regardless, I don't want to drone on about this.
7:58So, thank you again for the love. Really was incredible.
8:02Let's move on to some more important things. All right.
8:06I want to spend a few minutes on prediction markets since that is the talk of the sports speculating world as we head to 2026 NFL.
8:16I did a roundtable show on prediction markets with some really awesome guests, I thought, back in May.
8:22That was episode 982. Definitely, definitely, definitely recommend listening to that if you are just trying to get your head around prediction markets.
8:31And I guess I should also say up front that for full disclosure, Polymarket is a sponsor of some of ETR's content
8:39this season, including, you know, this podcast and a new projection show that we're doing as part of the in-season product.
8:47So, believe me, I am well aware that there is a lot of hate out there right now in the public on prediction markets.
8:56I want to put the legal stuff aside. I'm not going to get into that.
9:02You know, I'm far from a lawyer or a Supreme Court scholar.
9:06I also want to set aside opinions about whether gambling should be regulated, you know, rules on advertising, anything like that.
9:14People should make their own judgments on that stuff.
9:18But from my personal perspective, for people that are already into speculating on sports, I don't understand how more places that take
9:26action could ever be a bad thing. More outs is always a good thing.
9:31More competition on price is always a good thing.
9:34I mean, the number one thing we want as bettors is competition for our business.
9:40I would have zero. I would have zero interest in prediction markets if I wasn't limited massively on almost every legal sports book.
9:49You know, and I understand why I'm limited. I was only betting props.
9:54You know, I was only betting sharp stuff. I was only winning.
9:58You know, whatever. I get it. Sports books are a private business.
10:03They can run their business however they want. It only pisses me off when they say, come win in our book.
10:11When we all know if you do come win at their book, you're out.
10:16You're limited to pennies. So on prediction markets, I won't be limited.
10:20That is like, that's the only reason. Like that is why that this exists.
10:26The reason I won't be limited is because the counterparty isn't the house.
10:30The counterparty is not DraftKings or FanDuel or MGM, etc.
10:34Now, I think this counterparty issue is where people start to get pissed off.
10:39I think it's more of a transparency issue. And we talked about this a lot on episode 982.
10:46But yes, your counterparty on prediction markets is likely someone sharp.
10:50Often, but not always, it will be an institutional market maker such as SIG or JUMP or whatever.
10:57The question is, do we care? If I can get the best price on my Kenneth Walker to score a touchdown or
11:05Alec Pierce on their receiving yards, why do I care who is on the other side of the bet or the trade?
11:14I just want the best price. And I want to be clear, when I say best price, the reason you can often
11:22get the best price on prediction markets is because market makers are competing with each other for flow.
11:29You know, that's also how we get to the quote unquote right price in the stock market if you want to go buy a share of NVIDIA.
11:39So let's say I'm a market maker. You want to take Patrick Mahomes under 275.5 passing yards.
11:45I say, well, we'll give it to you at 272.5 and that's in the order book.
11:51Some other market maker comes in in the order book and says, oh, I can beat that.
11:58Take the Mahomes under with me. I'll give it to you at 273.5.
12:02And then maybe someone else comes in at 274.
12:06That competition for price is different than a sports book where there is no competition on price.
12:12FanDuel or DraftKings or whoever, they set a line and that's it.
12:17So again, competition is almost always good for the customer I think in any business.
12:22And the crazy thing is like not only is it the price stuff, not only is it not being limited, but the
12:31crazy thing is even within those parameters, there is so much more liquidity on prediction markets on props and smaller markets.
12:38Like even clean accounts on sports books often can only get 100, 200, 300 on a player prop on clean accounts.
12:46I don't know for sure what the liquidity will be on player props on prediction markets, but my suspicion is it will
12:55be absolutely insane, you know, at least on starter level, you know, or star players.
13:00Now, yes, more liquidity in a market, in any market, means more smart money going after that market.
13:07It is for sure going to get more competitive out there.
13:11But I'd much rather have that over the current situation where the only people that can actually bet are the people that
13:19are losing or the people that are grinding their face off to get beard accounts.
13:25So, I'm just talking as a better, you know, someone trying really hard to win.
13:31First, I can bet whatever I want on prediction markets.
13:34I can win. See how you can hate on that if you're someone trying to get it in good.
13:42If you're someone that is a plus EV better.
13:45I can get the best prices and, or even if it's not the best price, I can check to see if it's
13:53the best prices and I'm actually allowed to bet.
13:57You know, I'd rather be promoting that versus promoting, hey, go to X Sportsbook where if you win, you're going to get limited to pennies.
14:06So, you know, I'm happy to talk more about this.
14:10I, you know, I'm pretty passionate about it. If you have questions about, you know, the poly deal or anything prediction markets
14:18related, feel free, shoot me a DM on Twitter.
14:21Again, I usually check those, try to check them once a week or so during the season.
14:28Sometimes it's a bit tougher. All right. Need to get a list of questions, but I do want to talk about our
14:36plans for this season quickly because I've had a bunch of questions.
14:40I know people were worried that we were going to be taking stuff out of our NFL in-season product.
14:48I want to be clear. That is not true.
14:51True. Whatsoever. Not only was nothing removed from our NFL in-season product year over year, but we're actually adding a bunch to it.
15:00So, of course, fantasy slash DFS projections for every player in every game, projected ownership, Silva's matchups, Thorman's rankings, all the Thorne
15:08stuff, establish the show with me and Silva and Wiggins, establish the million with Dink and Leone, all the Sunday shows, trade calculators, tons more.
15:17I mean, everything from last year you can see in the content get on the site.
15:23And then I did want to talk about a few new things that are in in-season.
15:29First, Survivor stuff. I am really excited about Survivor.
15:33It is very clear to me that we are in the early stages of a Survivor contest boom, and therefore, it's pretty
15:41early in the learning curve for a lot of people on Survivor.
15:45I think it's a pretty good spot to get in early.
15:50So we are adding a bunch of Survivor stuff to the in-season product this year.
15:55Most important, we're adding projected ownership for the main Survivor contest on Splash and Circa.
16:01Cody's going to be, Cody Main's going to be running those, our projected ownership specialist with input from Skylar, Hoke.
16:08Good projected ownership is the most important thing to have if you're trying to play Survivor well.
16:15So again, if you want to get our Survivor, you do need our Survivor projected ownership, you do need to have the in-season product.
16:24We'll also have a weekly article on Survivor, a weekly show with Skylar and Cody.
16:29And one thing they'll be doing on that show is going over our ETR portfolio.
16:35We sold some pieces and we are firing 150 entries at the 1K on Splash for a couple reasons.
16:42First, we think we're plus EV in the contest and there will also be a ton of hedging opportunities to ensure that we don't get felted on it.
16:53And second, we just want to show that we are taking this Survivor stuff seriously.
16:58You know, I think we've really earned authority in DFS and Fantasy and Props.
17:04We want to earn it in Survivor as well.
17:07So anyways, that 1K buy-in on Splash Survivor is 21 million guaranteed.
17:11So crazy. It might overlay. If you want, you can use code ETR or sign up for Splash.
17:18We sign up with code ETR the first time.
17:22Make a deposit and enter the 1K Survivor. They'll give you $100 bonus.
17:26Other new stuff in season. Man vs. Machine show in every week.
17:31People love the Silva vs. Leone Man vs. Machine we do once a year.
17:36We're going to do it once a week in season as part of the in-season product.
17:42I will moderate the debate of our times on maybe 4, 5, 6 of the biggest topics of the week.
17:50Also new show is Projections Context Show. We'll be a mix of me, Leone, Mark, Jack, maybe others from the Projections team
17:58just talking through some tough spots each week. Like hey, we have Kyron Williams 63% of the carries, Blake Corham 37%.
18:06Here's why we have that. Here's where we could be wrong and just kind of talk through a lot of that.
18:14I think that'll be really useful. And then one other important add to in-season that I want to talk about.
18:21We now have dedicated people on FanDuel specific content, articles, strategy, projected ownership.
18:26I felt like our FanDuel coverage was lacking a little bit and part of that is because we can't download the CSVs
18:34but still I wanted to beef up our FanDuel coverage for our FanDuel brothers and sisters out there so really excited about that.
18:43If you're serious about your season-long league or if you're into DFS and by the way we do have a show coming
18:51out soon myself, Dink, and Brat about how to beat DFS tournaments in 2026.
18:57But yeah, if you're into DFS or you're serious about season-long or you want to read Silva's matchups or anything else in
19:05the in-season content sked we do have annual monthly and weekly options there.
19:10Be sure to check that out. If you have DraftKid and you want to upgrade to our NFL bundle aka DraftKid Plus
19:18in season shoot a note to support at EstablishTheRun.com and we'll get you the bundle price on that.
19:25All right. Enough is enough. It is time for everyone's favorite portion of the show the listener questions.
19:31Bruce Luke hit the theme music. All right. Thanks to everyone for the questions going to do five of them today.
19:39If I don't get to yours today stay tuned it's possible I get to it on a future solo pod.
19:47Question one from Jeff he says pretty sure I saw you during set break at Sphere third weekend of Fish.
19:54I thought Levitan? No way he'd be here. I seriously regret not saying hi and maybe lending a hand based on your face.
20:03Curious what was going through your mind. Well Jeff I'm upset with you.
20:08I mean I'm your brother I needed help and you weren't there for me.
20:13So yeah I mean it was my good friend Josh's birthday.
20:17He's an artist. He wanted to see Fish at Sphere.
20:21This is I thought one of those deathbed theorem spots.
20:25I really didn't have time. I really didn't want to leave the kids but I love Josh and I enjoy going to Fish shows.
20:34I've never been to the Sphere so I grab a quick flight and I go to Vegas.
20:40Well it turns out that Josh and the crew they already had tickets so I had to buy a single.
20:48I could not find a single in their row so I am riding solo in some random section in the Sphere for Fish.
20:56I'm really not a big drinker. I really don't enjoy it but when I get uncomfortable I start drinking whiskey and that's what I did.
21:06So I'm by myself. There's hippie freaks everywhere. You know they have no idea I have 10k worth of slow drafts going on in my pocket.
21:15Anyway so I'm drinking some whiskey I'm smoking whatever I get to my seat and there's this dude right next to me
21:24seat right next to me he's wearing jean shorts you know jorts if you will he's wearing like a hippie tie-dye shirt
21:32he's talking to me he's being so friendly he says he lives in Vegas comes to Sphere all the time for the
21:40shows he offers me some Molly normally I would never accept drugs from strangers like never ever you know pretty easy call
21:49I think but sometimes in life Jeff you just got to trust your reads you know live reads live tells if you
21:57will and my read in this spot was that this dude was legit you know just a fun loving hippie who wants
22:05to spread love share his drugs you know in an effort to bring peace to the world so I did the Molly
22:13with this random at the fish show I'm by myself I guess when Jeff saw me I was probably just wandering the
22:22concourse and he didn't help me you know I was on Neptune and Jeff didn't help me so thanks for nothing man
22:30question two from Gator Mab he says given your recent health scare what are the top three tests you recommend that we
22:38should all not be afraid to pay out of pocket for yeah good question I know I talked a bunch on episode
22:46997 about this but if you guys have questions I mean I'm happy to do at least one a week on solo
22:55pods about health and or preventative stuff so top three tests worth paying for first one I would say colonoscopy I know
23:03everyone's tired of me talking about colonoscopies but it really does pain me every time I hear about someone dying of colon
23:11cancer because it is the perfect storm not only you know colon cancer is both extremely dangerous and fast moving but at
23:19the same time we have this amazing screening for it in other words it's one of the most preventable cancers if you
23:28just suck it up and do the colonoscopy I think everyone 35 or older should do it after that I think it's
23:36tougher I'm sure plenty of people disagree with me I guess for the second one GatorMap I'll go with the carotid artery
23:44ultrasound I say that I say that because it should be relatively cheap I think like 200 bucks and it's not invasive
23:52at all it's just an ultrasound no radiation takes like five minutes basically you're just ensuring blood is flowing from your heart
24:01to your brain freely there's no plaque or blockages in your arteries that could lead to a stroke and then for the
24:09last one I'll say pre-novo scan I talked about some of the drawbacks on that episode episode 997 but I do think
24:17it's worth it you know and again if you're mentally like there I think it's worth it again not to find thyroid
24:25cancer but to scan for far more dangerous fast moving tumors or problems but yeah I mean that's not the final word
24:34on this stuff there's tons more non-invasive things to do just make a dermatologist appointment tell them you want to be screened
24:42for skin cancer like it's easy you know so I want to keep talking about this stuff so please keep asking questions
24:50about it question three from Galactic says who would you take for futures on division winners says okay who would I take
24:59for futures on division winners okay yeah I'll bite on this but I want to be clear this isn't who I think
25:07will actually win the division but who I like best at cost AFC East I think you know Bills minus 136 I
25:15still think it's close between them and the Patriots I do think the Patriots are a little bit better than last year
25:23but Josh Allen at minus 136 I think is probably best there AFC North Bengals plus 175 Ravens are the favorite at
25:32plus 102 I think the Bengals defense is better I mean Dexter Lawrence reasonable cornerback play like if they have a mediocre
25:40defense and Joe Burrow stays healthy I really like the Bengals long shot stuff mentioned I had that 31 Super Bowl there
25:48on them AFC South I'll say Jaguars plus 245 Texans are a big favorite here at plus 110 just a lot of
25:56faith in Liam Cohen and so I'll take the plus 245 there AFC West you know the Chiefs are the favorite the
26:05Chargers aren't far behind third choice is the Broncos at plus 220 I mean Broncos have such an incredible offensive line and
26:13such an elite defense and they get Jalen Waddell now I think Broncos plus 220 is decent there NFC East I'll go
26:21with Eagles plus 135 people are down on the Eagles because of the way Hurts played last year I want to put
26:29a lot of it on Patriots and their defense is truly elite there also so Eagles plus 135 NFC East NFC North
26:38I'll go Vikings plus 500 that's dead last that's the fourth choice a chance to bet on Kevin O'Connell at 5-1 just
26:46turning things around I think makes sense NFC South I did take Saints at plus 370 like four months ago that's down
26:54to plus 270 now at the current prices I think Bucks plus 180 actually looks best like when Baker was healthy last
27:02year they were really cooking NFC West I hate minus money obviously and like really tough divisions like this but Rams minus
27:11105 Rams have such an absurd roster I mean on both sides of the ball especially defense but everywhere and Seahawks lost
27:19Kling Kubiak which I think means a lot so yeah I'll never talk about those again unless they all hit in which
27:27case I'll victory lap them relentlessly yeah I appreciate it Chris you know we're always dropping new things these days we have
27:35such a huge team now we always email and tweet when we have stuff we try to talk about it the show
27:44but yeah it's a problem having cool stuff is great but if no one knows about it then what's the point what's
27:52the point if no one's using it and there's only so much shilling of stuff that I can do before people get
28:00turned off so yeah I mean one of the things that keeps me up at night is our menu is overwhelming I
28:09get all right last question we're gonna do today comes from Tyler he says how do you think prediction markets will affect
28:17the player prop ecosystem yeah so just following up on what I where there's the most action the most liquidity the most
28:25professional bettors that place is usually you know not 100% but almost always the better source of truth and so as fewer
28:33sharps participate in props on sports books in theory those lines should be softer but you know we know how this goes
28:42you know sports books are going to copy lines from the sharpest place from the most if you can get actually get
28:50down on those sites I suspect you could do very well you know so we'll see though it's a new world for
28:58all of us you know and we're tracking everything super close for sure all right that is going to do it for
29:06the first solo pod of the year these solo pods will run most weeks as I said audio only most weeks on
29:15Tuesdays be sure you're subscribed to our feed on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to pods last reminder if you plan
29:23to play DFS this year and or you want access to our projections or projected ownership you for Sir Ryan for Jerry
29:31the most beautiful beast in the world I am Adam good luck everybody