PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Patriots vs. Seahawks Showdown Breakdown (Episode 1020 with Adam Levitan, Cody Main, and Sam Brott)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 8 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 8, 2026
Published
Tue, September 8, 2026
28
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Cooper KuppRhamondre StevensonA.J. BrownJadarian PriceRashid ShaheedRomeo DoubsAJ BarnerAlec PierceCorey KinerDrake MayeElijah ArroyoGeorge HolaniHunter HenryJaxon Smith-Njigba
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveDepth Chart14:26
A.J. Brown is a significant upgrade for the Patriots' offense over Stefon Diggs, allowing other receivers to move into more appropriate secondary roles. He is a key component to unlocking Drake May's ceiling.
Insight pagePositiveRole44:41
Cody Main highlights AJ Brown as one of the slate's best captain options. Main expects Brown to consolidate targets in New England and serve as the alpha wide receiver one that Drake Maye needs, similar to his role in Philadelphia.
Insight pageAJ Barner
NegativeUsage53:39
Adam Levitan notes that AJ Barner has 'tush push' equity, which is baked into his projections. While he is an interesting alternative, there is uncertainty regarding his exact role compared to Hunter Henry.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
PositiveInjury1:46
Alec Pierce was dealing with an injury scare during the preseason but is expected to be okay and play in Week 1.
Insight pageCooper Kupp
NegativeUsage38:48
Despite being labeled 'washed' by some, Cooper Kupp led the Seattle receiving room in targets during the Super Bowl with 12. The analysts note that his role as a slot/tight-end-adjacent receiver is the primary way to beat elite corners, keeping him relevant despite his declining physical profile.
Insight pagePositiveValue42:06
Adam Levitan prefers Cooper Kupp's target projection over Rashid Shaheed's, noting that Kupp is $1,200 cheaper at $5,200. Levitan views Kupp as having one of the best matchups on the slate.
Insight pagePositiveProjection65:33
Adam Levitan projects Cooper Kupp to see five or six targets in the upcoming game, despite acknowledging the controversy surrounding his best ball ranking.
Insight pageCorey Kiner
NegativeDepth Chart21:24
Corey Kiner is identified as the likely RB3 for the Patriots, having been acquired via trade just 10 days prior. Despite the team's lack of depth, the analysts express skepticism that the coaching staff wants to utilize him or other reserves like Hassan Haskins unless the game script forces them to.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection11:53
Drake May is a strong fantasy option with a high floor due to his dual-threat ability (6% design rush rate, 10% scramble rate) and improved offensive line/receiving corps. He is considered underpriced for the Week 1 showdown slate.
Insight pageElijah Arroyo
PositiveSleeper54:41
Sam Brott suggests Elijah Arroyo as an interesting punt play. Arroyo is a fast, athletic player who may see extra routes if other tight ends are out, potentially catching a touchdown or a splash play.
Insight pageGeorge Holani
NegativeRole28:48
George Helani is expected to handle passing-down work and potentially the two-minute drill for Seattle. While there is speculation about him receiving goal-line work, the analysts are skeptical, noting that Jadarian Price may be the superior option. However, Helani remains a viable play at his price point, and the analysts suggest playing both him and Price together is a valid strategy for large-field tournaments.
Insight pageHunter Henry
PositiveMatchup50:55
Adam Levitan and Cody Main highlight Hunter Henry as a strong play due to the Seahawks' defensive tendency to allow fantasy points to tight ends. Henry is priced at $4,800, which is significantly cheaper than his previous season average, and he is expected to be popular as a 'safety blanket' for the field.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveValue28:48
Adam Levitan and Cody Main view Jadarian Price as a strong value play at $7,200. Despite offseason uncertainty regarding the Seattle backfield split, Price is viewed as a first-round talent in an efficient, run-heavy offense who may slip through the cracks in ownership due to the perceived committee situation.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout66:27
Adam Levitan highlights Jadarian Price as a potential breakout candidate, suggesting he may be a top-six NFL running back whose talent was hidden by limited usage at Notre Dame and in the preseason.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeMatchup36:15
Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces a difficult matchup against Christian Gonzalez, who successfully limited him in the Super Bowl. While JSN remains a high-ceiling player, the 'Gonzo' shadow narrative may suppress his ownership in single-entry contests, though he remains a strong play for large-field tournaments due to his $10,600 price tag and target-earning potential.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveInjury1:46
Jeremiah Love was dealing with an injury scare during the preseason but is expected to be okay and play in Week 1.
Insight pageKyle Williams
NegativeProjection45:31
Cody Main and Adam Levitan are skeptical of Kyle Williams at $2,600. While he had a strong preseason, they doubt there will be enough volume to justify the price tag. Levitan views him as a binary outcome player who might only run 8-10 routes, making him a 'lotto' click rather than a high-probability play.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveInjury1:46
Luther Burden was dealing with an injury scare during the preseason but is expected to be okay and play in Week 1.
Insight pageRashid Shaheed
NegativeBreakout40:24
Adam Levitan views Shaheed as a high-ceiling, low-volume receiver who can pay off at flex or captain with just a few catches. Despite a disappointing previous season, Levitan is willing to bet on a turnaround given the off-season reports of an expanded role and improved chemistry with Sam Darnold. Levitan notes that if ownership stays in the 4-5% range, he is interested, but he would fade if ownership rises.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout64:43
Cody Main selects Rashid Shaheed as his flag plant, citing his elite aDOT (27.5, 23, 25.8 in the postseason) and the potential for an expanded role with more underneath volume.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveUsage19:38
With Trevion Henderson likely out, Ramondre Stevenson is projected for an massive workload, potentially handling 85-90% of the Patriots' running back touches.
Insight pagePositiveValue19:55
Cody Main identifies Rhamondre Stevenson as an excellent value on FanDuel at $10,000, noting the price point makes him a strong play despite the half-point PPR format.
Insight pageNegativeUsage20:00
Adam Levitan and Sam Brott agree that Rhamondre Stevenson is poised for a massive workload, potentially 85-100% of Patriots running back touches, due to a lack of depth behind him and the team's apparent lack of preparation for injuries. He is considered significantly underpriced for this role, making him a primary target for lineups, though his high projected ownership necessitates careful roster construction to avoid duplicates.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveDepth Chart14:26
Romeo Dobbs is a significant upgrade for the Patriots' receiving corps, allowing other receivers to move into more appropriate secondary roles.
Insight pageNegativeValue44:13
Cody Main notes that Romeo Doubs fits a similar price-point mold to Rashid Shaheed, where he does not fit neatly into the slate's pricing. Main expects Doubs to face ownership squeezes in small-field contests.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeValue17:14
Sam Darnold is priced at $9,400 for the Week 1 showdown, which is considered too cheap given his role as a starting quarterback and his historical average price of $10,400. He is a strong cash game play.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeInjury19:48
Trevion Henderson is almost certainly out for the Week 1 game against the Seahawks, having not practiced since August 24th.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveInjury1:46
Tyler Warren was dealing with an injury scare during the preseason but is expected to be okay and play in Week 1.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to the 2026 NFL season. My name is Adam Levitan and we are gathered here today to talk about
0:07actual, real life, NFL, regular season football, Patriots at Seahawks Super Bowl rematch is tomorrow night, and of course, tons of action
0:13in the DFS showdown streets for that game. Joining me today are two of the most dedicated NFL DFS showdown virgins you will ever meet.
0:21Showdown specialist and king of the size slash mass streets, Cody Main.
0:25How's it going today? Cody, I can't hear you.
0:27Tech Lord difficulties to kick off the season. It wouldn't be an ETR show without that.
0:32It feels good to be back. It feels good to be back.
0:36It's almost time to put the pencils down. It's almost time to start the damn games.
0:41I'm feeling good. Indeed. It's enough already. We needed to start the games like two weeks ago.
0:46It's ridiculous. Anyways, Lord of the Simbros from our Data Sci and NFL teams, Sam Brott.
0:51How's it going today? It's going great. I'm with you guys.
0:54You know, we needed to start the games a long time ago.
0:58Preseason was great, but this lull we've had with the extended training camps and everything this year, like September 9th is way too late to get started.
1:06Yeah. And like every player, not every player, but most of the players who had injury scares, you know, Alec Pierce, Jeremiah Love, Ashton Gentry.
1:14I could keep going. Luther Burden, Tyler Warren, Brees Hall, all these guys that were quote unquote hurt.
1:19Seems like they're all going to be okay for week one or at least play here in week one.
1:25So yeah, there was so much fun out there.
1:28Hope you guys had a great drafting season. It is now time though to play the greatest game.
1:33There is DFS on today's show. We are going to talk all things Patriots Seahawks from a DFS showdown perspective.
1:39We'll go position by position. We'll give a flag plant at the end.
1:43Reminder, most of these shows will be part of our NFL in-season product through the season.
1:48In other words, not free here on YouTube, part of the in-season product.
1:52That means our showdown shows, established the show with myself, Silva and Wiggins, established a million with Dink and Leone, weekly man
1:59versus machine, Silva versus Leone, weekly projections, context show, survivor show with Cody, tons more.
2:03All of those shows are part of our in-season product along with projections, Silva's matchups, ton more there.
2:09So head to establish the run.com and check out the in-season product.
2:12And if you have draft kit and you want to upgrade to bundle, shoot a note to support at establish the run.com.
2:19And we'll take care of your upgrade there. So again, if you have draft kit, you want to upgrade to bundle, shoot
2:26a note to support at establish the run.com. All right.
2:29There's some stuff changing here in the NFL and in the showdown streets here, Cody.
2:33I think a big thing was kicker stuff. Any quick thoughts on changes for this year that you see that are important for the showdown streets?
2:41Yeah, it felt really good to go back through the last couple of years worth of data from a couple of different
2:48angles, seeing what the field has been doing, seeing what DraftKings has been doing from a pricing perspective.
2:53And then to actually look at what's been happening on the field, we know that there's been rule changes to kickoffs.
3:00We know that there's been rule changes to the K-balls that the kickers can actually use.
3:04And I think all of those things are really important to try to analyze.
3:09This is probably the biggest format where kickers matter the most is DFS and his showdown.
3:14And I think looking through those three angles kind of helps paint a picture of what we should be doing with kickers.
3:20I think it's probably one of the biggest changes the format has had over the last couple of years since the early days.
3:27And I think from an on-field perspective, it's really tough to deny that kickers have become more valuable components to showdown slates.
3:34We can see that in 2025, for example, they scored 10-plus points 38.4% of the time compared to 33.7% of the time in 2021.
3:41They went north of 15 points, 10.3% of the time in 2025 compared to 7% of the time in 2021.
3:47So you can see the trend of kickers simply getting better.
3:51It's not really a trend. It's just simply a benefactor of the rule changes over the last couple of years.
3:57I think that's important. But I think the component that gets lost when watching how well these kickers are performing on primetime
4:03showdown slates is that, A, they've become more popular.
4:06The field has become aware of these things and they're more owned in 2025 than they were in 2021.
4:12And B, they've become more expensive. So it feels natural to kind of gravitate towards kickers more often than we have in
4:19the past because of how well they're performing on the field.
4:22You kind of have to factor in those other components.
4:25It's something I want to keep an eye on this season.
4:28And both Andy Borgallis and Jason Myers, who are on this slate tonight, are pretty expensive.
4:33Coming up are pretty expensive. And I expect the field to want to own them.
4:38We'll see where ownership ultimately lands. But the kicker analysis is up on the site.
4:42I think it's a worthwhile read as you try to figure out how to handle these guys.
4:48But the general consensus that I came to after going through this process was that the way that they project now, the
4:54way that they're performing now, has kind of been caught up with by the DraftKings pricing algorithm and the rest of the field.
5:01Yeah. And I think it's a really important part of understanding what's changing in the NFL and what's changing what people are doing.
5:08Also, hopefully you guys caught our YouTube show about beating DFS tournaments.
5:12We talked a lot about the changing NFL and what the field is doing and what is actually winning there as well.
5:19Be sure to check out that video from over the weekend.
5:22And Brat, any high-level showdown thoughts from you on Sims or anything else heading into this season?
5:27Yeah, I think the availability of Sims kind of widespread throughout the industry has really changed how people have been building lineups over the past couple seasons.
5:35And we've updated our Sim field lineup projections or dupe counts in the Sims we have at Solver to account for that.
5:42I think kind of the big trend that we've seen over the past couple years is this gravitation towards the 5-1 builds,
5:49the 1-5 builds that Cody talks about where people are kind of onslaughting teams.
5:53And when they do that, they tend to use the defense, the kicker, and they just kind of play for one team
6:00to kind of dominate the other team. And the Sims have shown that that's a very viable strategy.
6:05But it has come to the point where the field has played it so much that you kind of have to wonder
6:12at what point is that stop being the optimal way to play.
6:15But just want to, you know, point out that our Sim product at the Solver does account for all of that now
6:22even more than it has in the past. All right.
6:25With that out of the way, let's talk about Patriots at Seahawks.
6:29This is a really interesting game. Obviously, it's a Super Bowl rematch.
6:32The last game that everybody watched was Seahawks-Patriots. The first game that everybody will watch this season is Seahawks-Patriots.
6:38Strikes me, Cody, that these are two very, very good defenses and specifically two very, very good secondaries.
6:44I mean, remember, the Super Bowl was 12-0 Seahawks after three quarters.
6:47I mean, the offenses could not do anything. And then in the fourth quarter, we get a pick six to speed the game up.
6:55There's a garbage time touchdown. It ends up with a reasonable final score.
6:59But after three quarters, people are like, this is the worst Super Bowl I have ever watched in the history of Super Bowls, 12-0 again.
7:06So Nick Imanawari, I think, has a chance to play.
7:09I'm not sure if he's going to or not.
7:12But Seahawks do return nine of 11 starters if you include the amount of worry in there.
7:17Of course, Patriots have Christian Gonzalez, who they just locked up, and a very, very good secondary as well.
7:23So I was a little surprised that the total came in here at 44-1⁄2.
7:27I see a lot of people wanting to take the under here.
7:31I know Silva is on the under in this game as well.
7:34Cody, any high-level thoughts on this version of Patriots-Seahawks?
7:37Yeah, I mean, it sure does. I was just on the surface feel like one of those games that could be a
7:44stinker of a primetime game to kick off the season from an offensive scoring perspective.
7:48I mean, there's bullish signals everywhere, I think, for both of these teams.
7:52Obviously, they were both in the Super Bowl last year.
7:55The Seahawks win the Super Bowl last year. You can paint pictures of losing Clint Kubiak being a big deal, of not
8:02having Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker having a big impact on what their offense wants to do.
8:07And then on the other side, reading through Pat Thorman's pace preview, there were a lot of positives to take away from
8:14what New England did last year, of course. Seventh highest pass rate over expectation, but they were still 17th in snaps per
8:21game, 28th in combined plays, did not use the no huddle often.
8:24So you get the sense that this game, you think that both teams probably want to play this one pretty slow, and
8:31it's going to stay pretty competitive and has a chance to be pretty low scoring.
8:35But on the other side of that, you've got offseason additions for the Patriots, you've got second year for Drake May, who
8:42had an MVP caliber season last year in Josh McDaniel's system.
8:46So I think you can also kind of paint the picture that maybe this one has a little bit more back and
8:52forth shootout potential to it, which I don't think the field is going to be playing for, which kind of makes for
8:59an interesting angle for those of us that like to root for offense.
9:03Yeah, I mean, Patriots got better, I think. You know, they added A.J.
9:07Brown, they added Romeo Dobbs. I think the offensive line is improved there as well.
9:11And it's year two Vrabel, you know, I mean, I'm so impressed by Vrabel, like every time.
9:17So, you know, year two Vrabel, I think makes a difference.
9:20I think the Patriots are better. You could argue that the Seahawks are worse.
9:24You know, they did lose a couple of pieces on defense, even though they returned nine of 11 starters and they lose Clint Kubiak here as well.
9:32You see, this is an important table that we have here in the Showdown Breakdown article.
9:37This is how often we project each users to do one Seahawk versus five Patriots or one Seahawk and five Patriots in
9:44their lineup, just 2.1% of the time. The other way, five Seahawks, one Patriot, 9.4%.
9:48This will be updated closer to game time here.
9:51But yeah, Brad, any general thoughts on the game and what we're showing here in terms of these splits?
9:57Yeah, I mean, I'm also thinking that the game probably leans towards the under here.
10:02Like, I'm not betting sides or totals or anything like that.
10:05But, you know, you just think about the environment here and it's hard to imagine it getting into a shootout the way I'm seeing the game.
10:13And I do think that that's going to lead the field to really want to play running backs, to really want to
10:19play defenses and especially correlate their running backs and defenses together.
10:23So, I could see situations where a lot of the field ends up playing for these kind of like low scoring games.
10:29And, you know, I do think that it's going to go that way too.
10:34But that gives us an opportunity to either play those kind of lineups in unique ways or to just kind of play
10:40for the shootout and play for a more interesting game to take place here.
10:45But I do think that the Kubiak loss and the new offensive coordinator coming in, you know, it does present this really interesting angle here.
10:52And it's something that I like to write about for the classic slate week one GPP leverage where, you know, the biggest
10:59unknowns we'll have all season are week one. Like, we could have a situation where Kubiak is a big loss.
11:05And he was so great for them last year that we all think that, you know, it's probably a loss.
11:11But what if it gets better? Like, it can get better.
11:14There is potential there. And there's also no tape for the Patriots to study of how this new offensive coordinator is going to operate within the Seattle offense.
11:23So, you know, they could get caught off guard with some stuff.
11:27And who knows? Maybe the Seahawks come out and surprise everybody.
11:30So, I think it's a great time in week one to just go against what you think is going to happen and
11:37just take contrarian angles and contrarian builds and try and get leverage against the field here.
11:42Yep. And we'll talk about some of those as we go through here.
11:45Let's start at the quarterback position where you get Drake May in one of the toughest spots that he will find all season here, Cody.
11:53And so, playing quarterback in showdown at these prices, I think, is typically pretty strong.
11:58Again, this will be the toughest spot maybe that Drake May has all season 12% captain ownership here.
12:03Cody, let's start on the Drake May side. What do you think about him?
12:07Yeah, quarterbacks are really cheap. And I think that's probably the biggest takeaway from the slate in general is that the slate is just very loosely priced.
12:16You're going to be able to build lineups that you feel you should feel good about using $46,000, $47,000, $48,000 worth of
12:22the $50,000 salary cap on draft kings. Part of that big reason behind that is Drake May's price tag and Sam Darnold,
12:29who we'll talk about in a second. These guys are probably $1,200 to $1,600 cheaper than maybe they should be or they were last season.
12:37And I think for May specifically, obviously, this is going to be a very difficult matchup.
12:41Three and a half point road underdog against a very good Seattle defense.
12:45I mean, during his season last year was kind of a model of fantasy consistency.
12:50Had 10 separate outings north of 20 draft kings points.
12:53Was in the double digits on every single game.
12:56So I think from a, you know, if you're thinking small field GPP, if you're thinking cash game style contests, it's tough
13:02to find anybody that has a better floor than Drake May.
13:06That doesn't discount the ceiling either. He had a 6% design rush rate last year, 10% scramble rate last year.
13:12We already mentioned the improvements for the offensive line.
13:15Adds A.J. Brown, adds Romeo Dobbs. I think there's reasons to be reasonably bullish about Drake May's full season outlook and specifically
13:21here in week one, even against a very good Seattle defense.
13:25I'm pretty in on May at flex. I think we're going to be able to find better captain options.
13:30And I think sometimes these quarterbacks that do offer some dual threat upside end up being a little bit over-owned at captain,
13:37both in large and small field tournaments. So I'm more interested in finding some of these running backs, wide receivers that I
13:44think just have a little bit more raw upside than Drake May might.
13:48But I think probably the best at current ownership, the best flex play in small and large field tournaments right now.
13:54Yeah, I agree. It's just too cheap for a player who could be, you know, well, should be a top five fantasy
14:01quarterback this season, if not top three or better.
14:03But we see here in our ceiling projections that we actually have Drake May fourth on this slate in terms of ceiling behind JSN, Ramondre and A.J.
14:12Brown. One thing about the Drake May play brought is, I mean, I know Diggs was good last year.
14:17He only played 57% of the snaps. He only worked really close to the line of scrimmage.
14:23Getting A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs is such a big upgrade because now they can play Pop Douglas and Matt Collins and
14:29Kyle Williams in secondary roles instead of primary roles.
14:32So if A.J. Brown goes out there and last year he was like, ah, I was just dogging it.
14:38Jalen Hurts stinks. Petulo stinks. Now A.J. Brown goes out there and balls out.
14:42I think that's how you find the real ceiling on Drake May.
14:46I have another take for Drake May pass catcher, but I think playing Drake May with A.J.
14:51Brown and that being the angle like, hey, A.J.
14:54Brown is such a big upgrade. He's such a good player.
14:57That's how you find the ceiling. But Brad, any more thoughts on handling Drake May tonight?
15:02Yeah, I'm totally with you on the upgrades here for Drake May.
15:05And, you know, I was kind of completely out on A.J.
15:09Brown at his cost for best ball and redraft purposes.
15:12But then you get him in this kind of situation here.
15:15And I think it's, you know, an awesome play here on a showdown slate just because, you know, everybody is going to
15:22be taking this idea that, you know, Seattle's defense kind of dominated them in the Super Bowl.
15:27And now they're at home in their own stadium and they're the three point five point favorites.
15:32So, you know, Drake May struggled in the Super Bowl.
15:35He's going to struggle here. But I think A.J.
15:38Brown really is such a big upgrade over Steph Diggs.
15:41And to your point about Steph Diggs, you know, he didn't play all that high of a percentage of the routes or snaps last year.
15:49And that kind of created a situation last year where Drake May did end up being owned quite a bit at captain
15:55when he was on these showdown slates because people didn't really feel comfortable making any of the Patriots receivers a captain.
16:02But I do think that here it might protect Drake May's captain ownership just a little bit because there is like this
16:08clear alpha now that you could just put A.J.
16:11Brown in the captain spot and he saves you a little bit of salary off Drake May too.
16:17So that could kind of cap Drake May's captain ownership.
16:20But I do think that when Drake May is the captain, it's going to kind of lead to some chalky combinations of like it's going to be A.J.
16:28Brown and Dobbs or A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry when Drake May is captain.
16:32So I think one thing that you could do is just play Drake May captain or Drake May skinny without A.J.
16:39Brown and say, OK, if Drake May is going to be the optimal captain, he's going to get a rushing touchdown or
16:45two or he's going to have a big rushing day.
16:48So I think that's the way I would want to play Drake May if I were to play him in captain.
16:55Yeah. Only thing about A.J. Brown, I would say I do expect him to see a lot of Devin Witherspoon, who I
17:02believe was PFF's number one graded cornerback last season.
17:04So like this is no bargain whatsoever for the May A.J.
17:08Brown stack. I just think that's the way he finds a true ceiling is with some outrageous plays by A.J.
17:14Brown. On the other side with Sam Darnold, Cody, it's like only six hundred dollars less like the gap between Sam Darnold,
17:20who I believe we had as like quarterback 25 or something in the fantasy rankings to Drake May, who I believe we had like QB four, QB five.
17:29It's only be six hundred dollar difference here is striking.
17:32But then again, we only have them two point one points apart in base projection and two points apart in ceiling.
17:38So, Cody, what do you think about handling Sam Darnold here at ninety four hundred?
17:43Yeah, I think there's a few things working in Sam Darnold's favor.
17:47Obviously, he's a quarterback. Quarterbacks are very valuable in showdown formats where it's positionless.
17:51You don't have to worry about rostering a single position across the board.
17:55So you have that working in his favor. He is a three and a half point home favorite.
18:00You have some at least uncertainty with what the offense is going to look like from a pass run split perspective with
18:07with Clint Kubiak gone, with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet not playing.
18:11Maybe they go a little bit pass heavy here, though.
18:14I don't think that's what we're necessarily projecting. And then Darnold himself.
18:17I mean, you're going to hear this about almost every player, but Darnold's a little bit too cheap as well at ninety four hundred.
18:25Last season, his showdown price point was ten four on average.
18:28And at ten four, he averaged forty six and a half percent total ownership, five point six percent captain ownership.
18:34So he's he's cheap here. Then you kind of you know, we're going to get to JSN in a second here.
18:40Some of these other guys, JSN is only ten six.
18:43JSN is is equally underpriced in this spot as well.
18:46So you can't spend up for everybody. You're going to be able to spend up for quite a few options on this slate.
18:53But I think when you start thinking about making cuts towards the top of the board, do you want to JSN at
19:00ten six or do you want Darnold at nine four?
19:03That's where you start to get into some of those some of those discussions.
19:07I still think Darnold's a phenomenal cash game option, given the safety that's provided by the quarterback position on every slate.
19:14But when I'm starting to think about tournaments, I'm a little bit more interested in some of the upside of the pass catchers running backs.
19:21And obviously, Drake May, who are priced directly around Sam Darnold.
19:25Yeah, I mean, if if I was playing cash, I would have both quarterbacks on my team in flex at a minimum, you know.
19:32So, yeah, I mean, I think just like too cheap here.
19:35Floor is too high. Let's go to running back here.
19:38Brat, this is the story of the slate. I'm just going to sort by New England for a second here.
19:44Seems like Trevion Henderson is almost certainly out for this game.
19:48That's not official yet, but seems to be very, very, very much trending that way.
19:52Has not practiced since I believe it was August 24th.
19:55What that is going to lead to is an outrageous usage projection for Ramondre Stevenson.
20:00Look at the names that they have behind Ramondre Stevenson for this game.
20:04I know Silva put an update in his matchup saying that he thinks Ramondre could handle 100 percent of the Patriots running back touches in this game.
20:12I don't think it's going to be like that, but I could see 85, 90 percent of the running back touches in this game going to Ramondre Stevenson.
20:21This is not sneaking by anyone, though, Brat. We keep pumping up the ownership on Ramondre up to 58 percent now.
20:27To me, this is one of the biggest stories on the slate how to handle Ramondre.
20:32What do you think, Brat? Yeah, this is really an unfortunate situation where the pricing came out on DraftKings, you know, quite
20:39a while ago when there was no indication that Trevion Henderson might miss this game.
20:43And it was going to be a great spot to play Ramondre.
20:47I think I, you know, have been really into Ramondre throughout the offseason and would have loved to play him here while
20:53a bunch of people were still playing Trevion. But I do agree with Silva.
20:58I do think that Ramondre will get 100 percent of the running back touches for the Patriots unless it turns into a,
21:04you know, blowout in either direction, whether they're up by a lot, they can get these other guys mixed in or they're
21:11losing by a lot and they just want to get Ramondre some rest for next week.
21:16I don't think they're going to turn to these other guys while the game is, you know, close at all.
21:22I'm really interested to hear Cody's thoughts on Kiner, on Haskins.
21:25You know, these are guys that we all played in the preseason.
21:29Kiner is actually good in the preseason, but, you know, I don't think the Patriots want to go to them.
21:35They haven't really played with the full team very much.
21:38And I'm kind of surprised, you know, I'm also, like you said earlier, Adam, I've been really impressed with Vrabel as a
21:45head coach, but they seem very underprepared here for potential injury.
21:48And they kind of shot themselves in the foot with a lack of depth here.
21:53So I'm sure I'll play plenty of Ramondre, but you got to be really careful about how you play him.
21:59He's very underpriced. So one easy thing to do is just play him when you're leaving salary on the table, pretend that
22:06he's priced correctly at like 10K or make sure you get some contrarian pieces or contrarian game scripts around him that you're
22:12telling a story with in your lineup, because it's going to be easy to run into dupes with Ramondre, the slate, whether it's at flex or at captain.
22:21Yeah. So, Cody, if for anyone who's wondering what's on the screen here, this is the solver.
22:26If you have ETR in season and then you add on the solver optimizer, our projections will sync to your optimizer.
22:32So basically, here's the optimizer here. All I did was ask for 10 lineups optimized by projection.
22:37You can also optimize by ceiling or 50% or projected ownership or floor, however you want to optimize by.
22:43This is by our straight projections, Ramondre. And this is just our top 10 optimals.
22:48Ramondre is our optimal captain in nine out of those top 10.
22:51So I'm worried that we're even like light ownership on Ramondre.
22:55But again, story of the slate here, Cody, how do we handle Ramondre?
22:59Yeah, there's not going to be a player with a bigger gap between like high stakes, sharper contests and slower stakes, more casual contests than Ramondre.
23:07Something in like the 3-3-3 or 4-4-4 or even higher stakes stuff.
23:10Ramondre is going to be in virtually every lineup in those contests and going to be even higher on the captain.
23:17I think maybe this is just wish casting. I think there's a couple of things that could potentially keep just the larger
23:23field lotto style stuff in check a little bit.
23:26But first of all, he's going to project for massive ownership regardless.
23:30You can see some leveling off of that. I can't play Ramondre at 60% or 15%, 20% captain.
23:35I've got to play somebody else to get different.
23:38Then you have the fact that Seattle's run defense is phenomenal.
23:41You have the fact that they're a three and a half point road dog.
23:46You have the fact that the fantasy masses just clearly do not like Ramondre Stevenson.
23:50I think that was pretty evident based off of how little his best ball ADP moved to this offseason.
23:56So I think there are some things that could potentially keep Ramondre's ownership in check.
24:00But it is a serious problem on the slate given where he was initially priced.
24:05I wrote in the breakdown that I think Ramondre probably would have found his way into the top overall play section.
24:11Even if Travion Henderson was active just given how they used him down the stretch last season.
24:17I think to Silva and Brat's point about how much is he truly going to be used.
24:22I don't know if it matters if it's 85% or 100%, but to those points, the backfield situation behind Travion is truly a travesty.
24:29They had an RB3 battle that they let play out through the entire preseason between Jan Miller, Lan Larrison, Jemichael Hastie, and Hassan Haskins.
24:36And were apparently so unimpressed by those guys that they traded for Corey Kiner, who was the Cardinals RB4 or 5 at the time on August 28th.
24:44So you've got a guy in here who is presumably RB3, the only other running back on the 53-man roster right now if Travion is out.
24:52And you just traded for him 10 days ago or so.
24:56So regardless of who ultimately ends up being active, whether it's Lan Larrison or Hassan Haskins.
25:01And I know Hassan Haskins has had some familiarity with Rabel before from their time in Tennessee.
25:06It just would stun me if they were using those guys to any meaningful degree, which makes them less interesting.
25:12And it just further kind of proves the point that Ramondre is the most underpriced player on this slate.
25:18Yeah. I'm curious, Brat, you know, from a contrarian perspective, I brought up the optimals if we fade Ramondre completely.
25:24No captain and no flex. And you get different stuff.
25:27Obviously, you get a lot of Drake May and JSN in captain.
25:30But what kind of teams do you think, Brat, if you wanted to go for a Ramondre fade, what kind of teams
25:37do you think make the most sense? Yeah, I think sometimes with like a lead back like this, it's easy to kind of project.
25:44OK, if I want to fade this player, what does the game look like?
25:49Like if we're looking at the extreme, somebody like Derek Henry.
25:52OK, if he's not going to be having a good game, you could just say like, OK, his offense isn't playing well.
25:59He's not getting touchdowns. So you could just play the opposing defense and play for a blowout.
26:04But it's tough with Ramondre because he's probably going to be the pass catching back throughout the entire game, too.
26:10If you do believe that he'll be playing 100 percent of snaps are close to it.
26:15So then it's like he kind of works in a blowout script, too, if he's just catching checkdowns and they're in a lot of hurry up spots.
26:23So it's really tough with Ramondre. I think a couple of ways you could do it is one.
26:28You could just imagine that the New England offense can't move the ball at all.
26:33They can't get first downs. So they're just not on the field for Ramondre to be able to have success.
26:39And then I think another way to do it is there is a situation where Patriots are able to score, but maybe
26:46they score two or three touchdowns through the air.
26:48They get a field goal or two and maybe Ramondre has like a solid 12 point game, but it's just not needed at his salary.
26:56And you need the passing game and the kicker or something like that.
27:00So I think it's easy to like tell ourselves certain narratives of like how a game is going to play out and
27:07then assume that, OK, how does Ramondre not get there?
27:10But he could just not get there because other players score more like that is a completely valid point, too.
27:16So I don't think it's a certain game script that you need to go down to fade Ramondre.
27:21Yeah. And like Ramondre scored caught in the Super Bowl.
27:24I mean, he was like dead. You know, he had seven carries for 23 yards.
27:29Travion Henderson had six carries for 19 yards. I mean, they could not run the ball whatsoever.
27:34Ramondre saved his day by catching a touchdown there in garbage time.
27:38So, yeah, I mean, he could just fail here, period.
27:41Brad, I brought up, I just simmed just as an example, the top 10 lines without Ramondre.
27:46Just to be clear for people like this is not the type of distribution that we're looking for when we're making good lineups.
27:53But anything you want to note here, Brad, for people that are interested or using the sims here for showdown?
27:59Yeah, I would definitely sim many different combinations of lineups.
28:02You know, Adam's doing 10 here just for demonstration purposes.
28:05But, you know, you do see that these Drake May captain lineups, the sims aren't really liking.
28:10So maybe they do prefer the route of, you know, more Seattle heavy and New England's either more concentrated or they just fail entirely.
28:18But again, I would try many, many different combinations.
28:20Take a look at the sim ROI. Take a look at the cash rate.
28:25Take a look at the top 1% rate. Don't just go solely off ROI because, you know, you need to kind of
28:31factor in more than just how often it gets first place.
28:35And that's sometimes what the sims are pointing to.
28:37But Cody did a really great breakdown on the site.
28:40Kind of a two-part series that highly recommend for everybody.
28:43All right. Let's go to Seattle running back, which is also a very interesting spot.
28:48You know, we've struggled a bit to get this exactly the way that we want it or the way that we feel really good about.
28:56Because there has been a lot of speculation about what the split will be between Jadarian Price, George Helani, and Emmanuel Wilson.
29:02My take was that throughout the offseason was that Helani would play the clear passing downs and a little bit more.
29:09Not as much as Charbonnet played, but clear passing downs, probably two-minute drill.
29:13So then we got this report. I don't want to call it a report, like a take last week.
29:18I believe it was from Brady Henderson, who covers the Seahawks for ESPN.
29:22He suggested that Helani could be getting goal line work.
29:25That did not make a lot of sense to me.
29:28I don't know if he's just like porting over the Zach Charbonnet role because Zach Charbonnet did get a lot of goal line work last year.
29:36And I agree, Helani generally will be in the Charbonnet role.
29:40But it would shock me if the coaches actually thought Helani was a better option at the goal line than Price.
29:46And then you also have Emmanuel Wilson, who's the biggest of the three backs and was a short yardage kind of guy in Green Bay.
29:54They signed him to a very cheap contract. He makes the team as a third back here.
29:59Did have a hamstring injury for a lot of camps.
30:02We do not have Emmanuel Wilson playing very much.
30:05Maybe he's a threat at the goal line. I tend to doubt it.
30:08I just think Jadarian Price is good. If you watched Hard Knocks, the coaches were already loving him from like the first day of training camp.
30:16And when the chips are down, like you're going to play the best players.
30:21Now, I said that a lot about Kenneth Walker should be playing more ahead of Zach Charbonnet.
30:26Coaches did not agree. But man, I'm not sure that Helani is the same player that Charbonnet is.
30:31So it's really hard. I like Price maybe a hair more than our projection here.
30:36But there is some error bans on the projection here for Seattle backfield.
30:40Cody, how are you thinking about playing this one?
30:43Yeah, it's such a tough spot. Because I think they're priced at a point where both Price and or George Helani could be valuable options.
30:50You could see a situation where both find their way into winning lineups.
30:54I would not hesitate to play them together. You could also get into a spot where one of them looks totally dead.
31:01And the other one looks even better than we have projected.
31:04And I think playing into a little bit of that uncertainty is the way that I plan on handling it.
31:10It's going to depend ultimately where final ownership projections land.
31:13But I'm kind of with you on the Price stuff in that you just expect a first-round draft pick, first-round talent to win out.
31:21Maybe that doesn't immediately happen in week one. But you have a first-round pick who is in one of the league's most
31:27efficient offenses, in one of the league's run-heaviest offenses at $7,200.
31:31And because of all the uncertainty that we're accounting for, is not going to catch a ton of ownership.
31:36And you also kind of have the fact that this slate is so loosely priced that if you even view Price as
31:43a value, the $7,200 tag just isn't necessary because you can get up to Ramond, you can easily get up to Drake
31:50May, you can get up to JSN. So I think that you get the situation where Price maybe slips through the cracks because of all the off-season uncertainty.
31:58And that's kind of the uncertainty that I want to plan to.
32:02So I'm pretty into Price. I don't think that necessarily means I'm out on George Helani either.
32:07I think that both are just at a salary point where I'm kind of interested in playing both of them.
32:13Well, Price is in seven of our top 10 optimals here, Brat.
32:17And they're all in flex. But it just shows how cheap Price is relative to a starting running back role.
32:23And that Super Bowl game, I mean, Kenneth Walker shredded the Patriots.
32:26He averaged five yards of carry. Had some really big runs.
32:30Thoughts on handling Price and Helani here, Brock? I also have a lot of interest in both of these guys.
32:36I do think that, like you said, with our optimals, Adam, Price is going to make it into a lot of lineups.
32:43Helani is going to make it into a lot of lineups just because on a base projection per dollar value, they're both
32:49underpriced and they fit kind of all the different builds.
32:52I have a lot of interest in playing both of these guys at Captain where going back to the point I made
32:59earlier, week one is the least amount of information we're going to have all season.
33:04We have an idea of how this split might go, but it could be something completely different that we're not anticipating.
33:10So I like the idea of playing these guys in Captain without the other ones so that if one of them plays
33:17a lot more than we're anticipating or just runs hot and gets the touchdowns, whether that's, you know, Helani gets two goal
33:23line touchdowns and it's a low scoring game, or Jadarian Price is able to break a long one or two and maybe
33:30he even gets the goal line role that we're not anticipating right now.
33:34Whatever the case is, their ceilings I think are much higher than their base projections indicate they would be just because there
33:41is ability for work to consolidate more than we're expecting here.
33:44And again, by week two, everybody's going to have an idea of like, okay, this is how it's going, but it's week
33:51one and we don't really know until we see it.
33:54So I think they're both great leverage plays at Captain.
33:57Yeah. And I mean, you know, we have price right now for 8% projected ownership in the Captain spot.
34:03You know, if you just say who is good, like I feel like so many times, and I'm guilty of it too,
34:09we get into this spot of it's pre-scripted. Oh, you know, the coaches know that they're going to do this and this.
34:16What if Jadarian Price is just so much better than Helani?
34:19And that's like the base case. He's just going to just be so, so, so much better.
34:24I'm interested in your take on this, Cody. What do you think about playing both Helani and Price in the same lineup?
34:31Yeah. We're going to talk about this a lot this year.
34:34I feel like there's going to be situations where running backs are just priced at a point, running backs on the same
34:41teams are priced at a point where you don't have to have that same level of concern.
34:46If one provides a slate winning type score, then that automatically means the other one in the backfield cannot provide a slate winning type score.
34:54I don't think that that's the case here for Price and Helani at all.
34:58If it's 60, 40 split on base downs, Helani gets a little bit more work as a pass catcher and they split touchdowns or Helani gets the touchdowns.
35:07And Jerry and price just racks up more volume.
35:09There's certainly outcomes where both of them can find their way into winning lineups together.
35:14I think it's more of a problem when the prices are a little bit prohibitive and it's more of a problem when
35:21you're considering what to do specifically in those instances at captain.
35:24If Jerry and price was more expensive and he provides a slate winning score at captain, that almost certainly doesn't certainly mean,
35:31but it's, it's much more likely that George Helani just didn't get enough volume or have enough opportunities to score enough points
35:37to find his way into winning lineups at flex.
35:40I think, I think there's a really good chance that both of these guys could end up in winning lineups together.
35:46For sure. And like, to be clear, what we're trying to do and show down, especially if you're playing large field stuff is fine.
35:54Tail outcomes that the field is not playing enough because like, you're going to need a tail outcome to win this and not be duped a million times.
36:02Small field is different, but if you're playing the lotto and stuff, like what you're looking for is weird stuff and maybe
36:09weird stuff is something like price and Helani together here tonight.
36:12Okay. Sorry. Wednesday night. Let's go to wide receiver here.
36:15Brat. We'll start with the Seattle side where of course, Jason is coming off just an outrageous season in which he had
36:2250% of the targets in multiple games, 40% of the targets in a ton of games ended up with over a 30% target share.
36:29Just absolutely unheard of stuff. The entire offense flowed through him.
36:33They did talk somewhat this off season about, Hey, we need to get more out of Rashid Shahid.
36:38We need to have other guys do it more.
36:41They also lose Clint Kubiak, which I think matters for JSN.
36:44Also Christian Gonzalez did an incredible job on JSN in the Superbowl.
36:48JSN had four catches for 27 yards in the Superbowl on 10 targets.
36:52So Brat, what do you think about JSN here in this spot at 10, six?
36:56Yeah, there's so much buzz on Christian Gonzalez, especially after he got that big contract too, that I do think that at
37:03least people hand building lineups, you know, in the single entry stuff and that kind of tournaments.
37:08I do think JSN could squeeze a little bit at captain.
37:12Like, I don't think people are super excited to play him.
37:15I think everybody's scared of Christian Gonzalez. I think people saw what happened in the Superbowl.
37:20You could, you know, write off what have some of what happened in the Superbowl to JSN was hurt in that game as well.
37:27But regardless, I think the narrative out there is just that JSN.
37:31Uh, could get shut down here. Or even if he's not shut down, the Seahawks might just look in other directions.
37:37So I think it creates a situation in hand builds where people aren't going to really like want to play him in captain.
37:44And that's going to limit how much Sam Darnold is played.
37:47That's going to maybe limit even how much the other wide receivers are played in kind of a weird way because they're
37:54just going to stay away from the Seattle passing game in general.
37:58So it creates a weird ownership dynamic for the small field, single entry stuff where I do think that we could see
38:04kind of wider discrepancies than normal of the ownership in those contests versus the, you know, Millie maker type contest, which is
38:11what Cody's doing these projection projected ownerships for. So I would definitely be considerate that when you are building your, uh, small
38:18field lineups and your single entry lineup that if you, if you like JSN, like go for it, play him in captain.
38:25Cause I think he has some protection here, um, with the Gonzo, uh, narrative out there.
38:29Yeah. And I don't love JSN in this spot, but there just aren't that many players on the slate that can actually get you 30 or 35 points.
38:38And so from that perspective, I'm still interested, but I do not think this is a great spot for JSN.
38:44I will note, Torrey Horton, I believe is still questionable.
38:47We do not have him, uh, in right now.
38:50Cooper cup led this receiving room in targets in the Superbowl.
38:53Cody with 12. This has been a controversial, uh, thing all off season for a while.
38:58We had Cooper cup at like one 70, one 80 in the best ball ranks.
39:03And you would have thought that we like murdered someone's mother.
39:06How could you have Cooper cup at 180th overall in the best ball ranks?
39:10I mean, I don't disagree that he's washed. There's not much of a ceiling, but he did have 12 targets and way
39:17that you beat, uh, these really good corners is by working over the middle, you know, tight end slot guys and stuff like that.
39:24So Cody, any thoughts on cup JSN or any other Seattle wide receiver thoughts?
39:28Yeah. I wanted to note on JSN specifically, the, the ownerships that we have for our, for large field as Sam pointed
39:35out, and they have been manually adjusted at this point already.
39:38They'll be adjusted again before lock, uh, Wednesday night, but they are kind of accounting for some of the stuff that Sam
39:45talks about with Christian Gonzalez, uh, shadow treatment and everything else.
39:48Clint Kubiak being gone, it comes down to a price thing though.
39:52I just think that we're ultimately going to see a ton of the field pile into him at 10, six.
39:58He's, he's $1,200 under price, just like a lot of the rest of these guys are and has the highest ceiling on the slate.
40:05So I think ultimately it'd be a ton of, a projection and Simbros that find their way there.
40:11But I do think that as Sam pointed out, the hand built stuff could ultimately keep his ownership in check.
40:17I hate to do this things. I feel like I do this on every showdown show, but you know, the, the Rashid
40:24Shaheed stuff, the high dot, low volume type receivers are the ones that, and they could get there on just a couple of catches.
40:31And those are the types of outcomes that we're looking for to get that, that ceiling that we're looking for at both
40:38flex and captain at this price point. And we've already talked about it a bunch.
40:42I think it's going to be a roster construction.
40:45It's going to be a stars and scrubs heavy as possible.
40:48You're going to get as many people that play JSN and Drake may and Ramond Ray Stevenson and AJ Brown.
40:54And then you're going to funnel further down the leaderboard into some of the four and three K type options that are available.
41:01Helani is one of them. There's some receivers that we'll talk about in a second that also fit that build.
41:07But I think Shaheed is the one that to me feels like he could get lost in the sauce.
41:13And there's so much uncertainty around what his role is going to look like this season.
41:18And if we're looking for an opportunity to take advantage of that uncertainty feels like week one's a pretty good chance to do it.
41:25Got paid this off season cups, another year older.
41:28There's all this off season smoke about the role expanding and, and improved chemistry with Sam Darnold.
41:33It didn't look pretty for Shaheed last year, but I'm kind of willing to bet on that turning around with another off
41:40season under his belt with the Seahawks. I feel like the ownership now is appropriate.
41:45I do worry that these types, these kind of wide receiver archetypes like Shaheed, we'll talk about Dobbs too.
41:50On the other side, they just tend to get a little bit more captain ownership than maybe they should because the field
41:57like me is trying to play for some of those tail outcomes.
42:01So if it stays in the four, four and a half, 5% range on Shaheed, I'm pretty interested.
42:06If I get the sense that it's going to seem higher than, then I'm willing to check out there.
42:12I mean, if you want to talk about who has, you know, the best matchups, it's Shaheed and, and cup much more than JSN.
42:19The, you know, she'd got to the team mid season last year.
42:23I thought that they would integrate him more into the offense quicker.
42:26They did not. They had an entire off season now to do so with a new coordinator.
42:32I kind of buy that they're going to integrate him more.
42:35It doesn't mean that it'll all happen early, but I do buy that they'll integrate him more.
42:40Or the other thing that you get when you play Shaheed is I expect him to be continue to be their punt and kick returner.
42:48If you play him with Seattle defense, the patented double dip, uh, you could get six points from Shaheed for scoring a
42:54punt return touchdown and six points for Seahawks defense.
42:57If he scores a punt or kick return touchdown there.
43:00So yeah, but I mean a cup at 5,200, I feel better about his target projection than Shaheed at 6,400.
43:06I think it'll be close, but you do save the 1200 there with cup.
43:11Uh, if that matters. All right, we'll get to tight end here.
43:14I'm sorry. Oh, we need to do new England.
43:17I almost forgot our precious new Patriots wide out core.
43:20So we already mentioned the AJ Brown stuff a lot, uh, a while, uh, at the top, uh, going to see a
43:27bunch of Devon Witherspoon, who was, uh, PFS number one corner last year.
43:31The base three wide rise. You were set for the Patriots will be Brown and Dobbs.
43:35Pop Douglas comes on and three wider sets for the slot.
43:39I do want to be clear though. The Patriots will rotate.
43:42I mean, Matt Collins is going to play. He's like their favorite blocker.
43:46Kyle Williams. I'm, did he make, uh, the preseason, uh, first team, all preseason team.
43:51Kyle Williams was absolutely unreal. This preseason for the Patriots.
43:54I think he deserves to get some snaps also.
43:56So I think AJ Brown is going to play a ton beyond that.
44:00I expect to see somewhat of a rotation and that includes Romeo Dobbs.
44:04Like I liked Dobbs, but I do think they like Matt Collins and pop Douglas here as well.
44:10So Cody, how are you thinking about playing Patriots wide receiver?
44:13Yeah. Dobbs fits the same mold. I think as, as Shahid of that price point stuff, you know, not the, not the
44:20exact same archetype, but the same type of price point where he just doesn't really fit neatly into the slate.
44:26The projection and price, uh, value price adjusted value is pretty similar on him.
44:30So I think you get into a same situation, the same situation where in small field stuff, specifically, you're going to see
44:37total ownership and maybe captain ownership squeeze just a little bit, uh, on Romeo Dobbs.
44:41Uh, I think AJ Brown is among the slate's best captain options as well.
44:46If you can just kind of port over some of the stuff that he was doing in, in Philadelphia last year, when
44:52it was kind of a roller coaster season for him, he could have, has a chance to kind of consolidate targets here in new England as well.
45:01And kind of be that alpha wide receiver one that Drake may has been looking for.
45:05I think pop Douglas is really interesting. I hate to like put too much into the preseason stuff, but it felt like
45:12a really bullish preseason from him in that, that the training camp stuff looked, felt really good.
45:17And the, the fact that he just didn't play in the preseason was a really bullish signal.
45:22The Patriots didn't play any of their starters in any of the three preseason games.
45:27And they felt good enough to ship away. Kayshawn booty, Matt Collins played in the preseason.
45:32As you mentioned, Kyle Williams was like a focal point of what they were doing in the preseason was just an absolute
45:39monster as they were trying to get him going in those exhibition games as well.
45:43So it felt like a pretty good signal that pop Douglas has a secure enough role in this offense that he was not out there at all.
45:51So as you pointed out, I think being out there in three wide receiver sets consistently is a strong signal at 3k.
45:58Makes sense is a really strong value option. The thing and reason why he's not coming with any ownership is you just
46:05don't need that 3k value all that often. So I think he ends up getting a little bit underplayed.
46:10And if you just play for him, as Sam kind of pointed out with Ramondre, like if you just play for him
46:17to be appropriately priced and outscore the guys that are priced directly above him, you can get lineups that would look very
46:24similar to others that just leave salary on the table by playing to Mario Douglas.
46:28I like him as well. I wanted to be in on Kyle Williams.
46:322,600 just isn't free. And you have this situation where because of the way the slate is priced, like he's actually going
46:39to have to do something to find his way into winning lineup.
46:43So if, you know, catches a bomb for 60 yards and a touchdown, obviously that's going to be plenty, I think at
46:492,600, but I just have doubts that there's going to be enough volume for him to pay off that price tag at 2,600.
46:56So I'll wait and see on Kyle Williams, see if he gets cheaper throughout the showdown season, where I can take chances on him.
47:04But the, the, the off season narrative around him was, was obviously pretty bullish too.
47:08And they want to get him going on some of those deep shots and use his speed if they can.
47:14I know. I want, I like, I'm probably not going to play the lotto, but I, I'd be hard pressed not to
47:21click Kyle Williams in the lotto just because I'm like, you know, if you're hashtag team preseason, Cody, how could you not call Kyle Williams in the lotto?
47:29I mean, he might only run 10 routes in this game.
47:33He might run eight routes in this game. It's certainly possible.
47:36And obviously 2,600 is way too much for eight routes or 10 routes, but man, it's at least a fun click.
47:43And I did click in some of my final best ball drafts.
47:46I did take some round 20, uh, Kyle Williams there, uh, in the last round is a guy who will be unowned bright.
47:53Anything to add on Patriots wider C before we get to tight end.
47:57I'm with Cody on, uh, pop Douglas. I do think he's a pretty strong floor play, probably better for small field where
48:04you maybe don't need the pure nuts. Um, but he should provide you with a decent floor and a little bit of upside.
48:11Um, I think Kyle Williams is a really tough click here, especially if he gets any kind of, uh, ownership at all.
48:18Like I know we have half a percent, but even if he came in like 2% owned, I wouldn't feel great about the click there.
48:25Um, I think he like the most likely outcome for him in my eyes is he gets one deep shot and he
48:32either connects on it or he doesn't. And it's just a very binary outcome.
48:36And even if he does connect, let's say he gets a 40 yard touchdown.
48:40That's 11 points on draft Kings. There are situations where there's that's just not enough, um, to even make the winning lineup
48:47on this slate because the pricing is so loose elsewhere that if there's just other players who all score 15 or more,
48:54you're not going to need that, uh, salary savings for Kyle Williams.
48:57So I do like him in general. I was excited about the preseason usage usage.
49:02I just don't really like him in the context of this slate.
49:06And I'll echo what Cody said on Dobbs too.
49:08I think if you're playing small field and you want to play passing games, like mixing in two of Dobbs cup and
49:15Shahid is a really sharp way to go where it's highly likely at least one of those three squeezes, if not all
49:22three of them once you're in small field. So I think it's especially, uh, to play like two of them together and,
49:28you know, just hope that those are the guys you need because they're going to get squeezed in small field.
49:34Yes. Yeah, I agreed. One of them is definitely, I mean, for sure.
49:38One of them is going to squeeze there. All right.
49:41Need to get to tight end before we do need to remind everyone.
49:45Today's show is brought to you by poly market, one of the world's largest prediction markets and one that is now available
49:52in every U S state, two big things on poly.
49:55First, there is a good chance we can get the best price on our predictions around sports or sports books or anywhere else.
50:02Long time listeners know how important I think that is to get the best price, whether you're serious about this stuff or
50:09just having fun, getting the best price just makes such a huge difference.
50:13Second, there is no limiting on poly markets. So traditional NFL markets, futures, alts, props, small markets.
50:18There's so many. You can trade positions on poly market without the fear of being limited because you won or because you got CLV.
50:25And now next thing you know, you're limited to 26 cents.
50:29Also much better cash out value than what the sports books offer by just trading out of the position at market price.
50:35Whole thing really does function like a stock market right now.
50:39Poly market is offering new users at $50 bonus.
50:41If you deposit $10 with promo code ETR. So head to poly market us right now and use promo code ETR to get that signup bonus.
50:49All right, tight end. So I want to start with new England because I, this is really interesting.
50:55Um, if you go up here, if you have the, uh, in season product and you go up here to defense versus
51:01position, and this is the 2025 numbers. Again, this is looking backwards more than looking forwards.
51:06You see here that the Seahawks actually gave up more than expectation, fantasy points than expectation to tight end.
51:12And that is adjusted for who they faced at every other position.
51:16The Seahawks defense was dominant except against tight ends.
51:18And you see this with a lot of teams that have really good corner play and play the style of defense that the Seahawks do.
51:26You see them give up a lot of stuff to tight ends.
51:30Eli Raritan did make some new noise in the preseason, but I think now the chips are down here, Cody, it's going
51:36to be a lot of Hunter Henry. So just from a straight matchup perspective, I can make a case that Hunter Henry
51:43has one of the best matchups in this game.
51:46What do you think about him? Any other thoughts on tight end on the new England side?
51:51Yeah, I think, I think Henry's going to end up being really popular now.
51:55Obviously there's a lot of stuff that we have to account for that happened in the Patriots off season that could impact how he's used this year.
52:03Obviously the addition of AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs could have an impact.
52:07Maybe Eli Raritan steals a little bit of his work though.
52:11I think the expectation would be for him just to be out there in multi-tight insets when Henry's already on the field.
52:17But last year, Henry was, was nearly $2,000 more expensive than he's priced here in week.
52:22Once we talk about all these guys that feel a little bit underpriced.
52:26Henry, despite everything that has changed around him also feels really underpriced.
52:30And last year at 6,800 at a $6,800 average salary price point, he carried 36% ownership, five and a half percent captain ownership.
52:37I just, just like a safety blanket that the field seemed to like to roster pretty frequently last year.
52:43So I think if anything, we're probably under projecting both total and captain ownership right now.
52:47And then you also add in the fact that he's cheaper than both kickers.
52:52He's priced kind of right around the defenses. I think people would just rather roster Hunter Henry, given the matchup, given the volume that he saw last year.
53:00So he does make for, for a really safe click.
53:03I think if you're thinking cash games, there are safer options that don't have the floor concerns that somebody like Hunter Henry
53:10does, but he's, he's certainly in the mix at 4,800 makes for a really strong play.
53:15And it's tough to poke any or, or many holes in his outlook on Wednesday night.
53:20Yeah, certainly really cheap price there on Hunter Henry and, you know, always good bet to score a touchdown or at least
53:26be in the mix for a touchdown here as well around the red zone where they like to look for him.
53:33So yeah, just from a matchup respect, I thought that was really strong on the other side, we get AJ Barner with
53:39a similar projection and price point here brought, I do think Elijah Royal like can play.
53:44I do think he's like a legit pass catcher.
53:47I'm not sure exactly what his role is going to be.
53:50We saw Barner have some nice games. I would say relative to what I thought he could do as a receiver last
53:57season brought any thoughts on handling Barner versus Hunter Henry, anything else like that?
54:01Yeah. Hunter Henry is probably the leading candidate to kind of get the most steam when it comes to a small field hand-built lineups.
54:09He just fits everything like you guys talked about.
54:11So I'd be careful with that. Don't think that, you know, these ownerships are going to hold in the really small field
54:18stuff that you might be playing single entry for.
54:21Barner is kind of interesting here where I feel like people were into him for a while last season, but kind of
54:27trailed off and he got a little bit of steam for a little bit in the best ball market, but that kind
54:34of trailed off and didn't really come up. So I don't know how excited people are going to be to go to Barner.
54:41I kind of have some interest in Arroyo, especially if we keep on having this situation where only projecting JSN cup and Shahid at wide receiver.
54:49I do think that Arroyo could just play out wide or, you know, not in line the whole time whether it's in the slot or actually out wide.
54:58So I don't think he's going to get much volume.
55:01Maybe he gets a target or two, but I do think that he's just like an interesting alternative punt play that could
55:07catch a touchdown, could get one splash play for 30 yards.
55:11Like he is a really fast athletic dude and not really your traditional tight end.
55:15Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, if Horton is out for this game, you know, more wide receiver S routes at the bottom
55:22of the depth chart may be available. Just a few extra for Arroyo might make a difference.
55:27And I do think he's more of a, you know, Terrence Ferguson, Eli Stowers, Mike Kosicki type than, you know, an inline AJ Barner, Hunter Henry type.
55:35All right. Let's do kickers and defense together here.
55:38Cody, we already talked a bunch about the kicker stuff at the top.
55:42I do think defenses are going to be somewhat popular here today, just on, uh, on Wednesday, just on people think the
55:49game is going to be go under the total.
55:51So they think they're sneaking stuff by people by playing the defense.
55:55But yeah, Cody thought specific to kicker and defense on this slate.
55:59Oh, I think this, sorry, sorry. Uh, Marcus brought this up earlier.
56:02Yes, we are breaking this into projection. We do have AJ Barner with a little bit of tush push equity here, a hair of it.
56:10We have seen them do it in the past.
56:13So yes, that is baked into projections. We do think there's some chance they will use AJ Barner here on tush push.
56:19Sorry. Go ahead, Cody. That's the, the projection team is truly grinding it to a nub, just accounting for every possible outcome.
56:26Uh, I think Jason Myers is like the perfect example to kind of highlight all of the off season research that I
56:33did on the kicker stuff, because you can see it there in the price point.
56:37$5,400 for a kicker is not cheap, right? I'm sure we're going to see Brandon Aubrey approach that six figure, not six
56:44figure approach that six K mark at some point this season, but he projects for nine draft Kings points right there at
56:51or above Hunter Henry and AJ Barner. And then you can also see it there with ownership to 28.8% is not nothing.
56:571.3% captain ownership is also not nothing for the kicker position.
57:01So I think Jason Myers kind of perfectly encapsulates everything.
57:04And again, if you're thinking about cash game contests and lineup building decisions, going back to kind of playing the quarterbacks at
57:10the top of the show, I think kickers also offer just a safety that is tough to get from other players at similar price points.
57:18So if you're thinking about Jason Myers versus Cooper cup or Hunter Henry or AJ Barner, I think somebody like him has
57:25a little bit of a higher floor and still has access to a reasonable ceiling as well.
57:30We've also found that underdog kickers just tend to go under owned.
57:33They obviously have a worse projection most times because they don't account for as many points.
57:38But I think that's going to result in a situation where you get a little bit of a lower owned Andy Borgalis.
57:45And I felt good enough about the ownership coming down on him that I wrote him up as a leverage option.
57:51So if you're thinking about playing kickers and just want to go with the other direction, I think Borgalis will come in a little bit under owned.
58:00I'm with you on the defense is coming up.
58:02I think specifically the Seahawks being a favorite. And then if you look at Brandon Thorne stuff, I know his week, I
58:09don't think his week one O-line D-line mismatches are out yet.
58:12If they are, I apologize, but just looking at the off season stuff Patriots offensive line, I think he had ranked 24th
58:19last I had looked Seahawks D-line fifth. So you have a nice matchup there for a home favorite defense that is also
58:26just very good across the board and has good corner play.
58:29As well. So I think the Seahawks, you know, the fact that I felt confident enough in their price point and projection
58:36to write them up as a potential value option is just further indication that the field is going to have no problem gravitating toward them as well.
58:44I do think the Patriots will stay in check.
58:47The $3,400 price point feels really cheap, but you're going to be comparing them to again, players like Hunter Henry, AJ Barner,
58:53Demario Douglas, and then some other guys that are a little bit more expensive.
58:58I think the Patriots will probably stay in check despite most of the field anticipating this game being kind of gross.
59:04Yeah. I mean, the Patriots can get very pass heavy under Josh McDaniel, which is obviously something that you want when you're playing and opposing defense here.
59:12Brad, any interest for you in either of these in the captain spot or how are you planning on handling kicker and defense?
59:19It feels weird to say, but I do think that these special teams positions here are going to like really decide the slate.
59:26I do think, like you said, Adam, Patriots could get a little bit pass heavy here, especially if they want to give
59:33Ramondre a breather without really having to play these other running backs, which I do think is going to be the case.
59:40Like Cody said, the underdogs, especially on the road tend to go underplayed.
59:44So I think the Patriots defense is a really interesting leverage spot, not only because of just the low ownership on them,
59:50but also because of the scripts that typically come with a particular defense being optimal.
59:55I think Andy Borogales is really interesting. I always have interest in the Seahawks defense, especially when they're playing home.
60:01They're just one of these defenses that has a ceiling that others don't.
60:05And then I think Jason Myers is really interesting because he was unreal good last season and the field really caught on to that.
60:12He got a lot of ownership whenever the Seahawks were on island games, including in the Superbowl, but he was awful this
60:19preseason for those of us, you know, playing preseason showdown every week.
60:22He's just like ruining lineups. Like he couldn't make an extra point.
60:26It was really bad. And as somebody who played a lot of him, I wasn't really happy with it.
60:32So I was, you know, already tilted with him.
60:35But if, if that continues over here, I don't think like a lot of the field was, you know, watching him miss
60:41these extra points like Cody and I were. So I do think it could be a case where he gets a little
60:48over-owned and maybe he just turns around and ends up, you know, bouncing back for the regular season here.
60:54But if he's got any kind of issues continuing over into the regular season, I do think he's going to be quite a bit over-owned.
61:01I see the comment too, that Boragallis wasn't very good either, but at least he's not going to come with the ownership of Jason Myers.
61:09All right. Yeah. I'm your Huckleberry, who I believe is a Patriots fan said Andy, he, he's on a first name basis
61:16with the Patriots kicker said that Andy sucked in the preseason too.
61:19All right. Need to get the flag plants, but shout out to Tony.
61:23Appreciate you. So get the in-season package. Thank me later.
61:26Appreciate you, Tony again for anyone. Does not have ETR in season.
61:30We have dedicated people on fan duel this season for ownership for the main slate, but and content as well.
61:36But yeah, any fan duel specific notes here for the people, Cody?
61:40Yeah. Pricing actually maps pretty closely to fan from fan duel, the draft Kings this week.
61:44That's not always the case. I think as we get into the season more, there will be more discrepancies.
61:50The two biggest ones that stood out to me was Ramondre.
61:54We've already talked about it. I think when I wrote it up, I was kind of expecting Travion to play and just
62:00be limited, but he's an even better value on fan duel than he is on draft Kings where he's $10,000.
62:06Obviously the running back position and that the half point PPR nature kind of changes things a little bit, but Drake may is more expensive.
62:14Sam Darnold's more expensive. Jackson Smith and Jigba is, is 13 K flat.
62:18So I think the, the 10 K price tag on Ramondre just makes him an even better value, which probably doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.
62:26And then the aforementioned Jason Myers is 6,400 there on fan duel.
62:30He is cheaper than the, both defenses and excuse me, $400 cheaper than his own defense, $200 cheaper than the Patriots defense.
62:37So I think that price point on, on Jason Myers on fan duel makes him a superior value play there.
62:43All right. Let's go to the moment. Everybody has been waiting for the first flag plants of the season.
62:49They didn't watch the show. They just fast forwarded to the flag plants.
62:53No pressure whatsoever. I will give brought the floor first for your flag plant.
62:57Yeah. So I w I was thinking back, I believe it was two years ago for the NFL opener in 2024 was
63:04the first show I ever did with you guys.
63:06It was the first show I'd ever done. Uh, just period, uh, for DFS.
63:11Very nervous. Had never done anything before. And, uh, got the chance to join you guys for a free show, not even behind the paywall.
63:18So extra people watching it. And I came on here and I flag planted the Kansas city defense and I got booed off the show.
63:26I thought I was never coming back and somehow I'm still here two years later.
63:30So I'm going to take that as a sign.
63:33It was actually a good flag plant, not a bad one.
63:36And I'm going to go back to a defense, exactly what everybody wants defensive flag plant.
63:41And I'm going to go to the Patriots because like I said earlier, I think it just gets you in different game
63:48scripts than what the field is going to be playing.
63:51I think George Halani is going to catch some ownership.
63:54Patriots defense are cheaper than him and they provide direct leverage off of him.
63:58There's other plays that are going to be pretty popular down there.
64:02I think there's a lot of good leverage spots on the slate, but I'm going to go with another defense here for my official flag plant.
64:10Oh, right. Brat with the Patriots defense. For a flag plant.
64:13Love it. You know, one thing you could say, man, what if Clint Kubiak was the whole key to this thing and now he's gone?
64:21It wouldn't be the craziest thing I've ever heard.
64:23Cody, go ahead. We had an opportunity to do the funniest possible thing and get a natural CSU double dip there.
64:30When Sam teed up the defense, I thought he was going with Seahawks, but I'm going to go with the guy that
64:37would benefit from a Seahawks touchdown or be the reason why the Seahawks potentially score a defense or special teams touchdown.
64:43Sometimes you just, you have to stay true to yourself.
64:46That's what I'm going to do here. It's been a long running thing of me losing money with guys that have mouthwatering
64:53a dots and just generally don't see the volume or perform well enough to actually realize those air yards.
64:58But Rashid Shaheed, 27 and a half yard, eight out, 23 yard, eight out, 25.8 yard, eight out in the three games, the last post season.
65:06What if that role expands? What if he still sees those downfield targets specifically with Torrey Horton still sidelined, and he gets
65:13some more underneath stuff to actually supply some more volume to this current role?
65:17I think the ownership is going to come down or at least be held in check here.
65:22So I'm going to go Rashid Shaheed captain for my first flag plan of the year.
65:27With or without Seahawks defense for the double dip, Cody?
65:30I'm going without. He's going to do it offensively.
65:33He doesn't need, he great if he wants them, but he doesn't need the punt or kick return touchdowns to find a slate winning score.
65:41He's going to do it on offense. Okay. All right.
65:44I thought about a few guys here. I thought about going with Cooper Cup just to shove it down all the haters
65:50throats who were so angry about our best ball rank of 180 or 190 or whatever it was on, on Cooper Cup.
65:57And I do think Cooper Cup is going to see five or six targets in this game, but I'm not going to
66:04go Cooper Cup for the first flag plan of the season.
66:07That would be embarrassing. When I'm playing week one, I'm trying to think of things when we look back at week one,
66:14from week two, be like, Oh, of course that was obvious.
66:17And the number one thing from this game that I can think of along those lines is, of course, Jadarian Price is
66:24a thousand times better than George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson.
66:27Of course, Jadarian Price was stuck beyond Jeremiah Love.
66:30That just kept his tires fresh. And now he's here to go nuts on the NFL.
66:34So what if Jadarian Price is actually like a top five, top six running back in the NFL right now?
66:41And we just don't know because we didn't really see him that much in Notre Dame.
66:45And we didn't really see him that much in the preseason.
66:49And we just don't know. And so there's just like no excitement whatsoever around Jadarian Price.
66:54If he goes off on the Patriots, there will be a lot of buzz on Jadarian Price going to week two.
67:00So I'm very interested in the usage. I'm very interested in how he plays.
67:04I think the ceiling outcomes on Price are way better than the floor outcomes.
67:09So I will go with Jadarian Price here at 7,238% ownership.
67:12All right. That's going to do it for the first showdown show of the season.
67:16Not sure yet if the showdown show for Rams 49ers will be free or in-season subscribers.
67:21But starting next week, most of these shows will be for in-season subscribers.
67:25What I do know, Friday night, myself, Silva, and Wiggins established the show for in-season subs.
67:30And then Saturday morning, Leonie and Ding talking DFS tournaments for in-season subs there as well.
67:35Looking forward to that very much. Also, projections for all the games will be up tomorrow night.
67:40All right. Appreciate y'all being here. So glad the season is back.
67:44Thanks to everyone who tuned in all off-season. But alas, it is time for the actual games.
67:49For Cody. For Brat. Bruce and Ryan. For everyone behind the scenes at ETR, which is a ton of people who put
67:56in a ton of work this summer to get us here ready for week one.
68:00I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.
