PodcastFrom Establish The Run
2026 Superflex Strategy and Quarterback Outlooks with JJ Zachariason (Episode 995)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 8, 2026
Published
Wed, July 8, 2026
30
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsLamar JacksonBo NixCaleb WilliamsJared GoffJosh AllenJustin HerbertMatthew StaffordTrevor LawrenceBijan RobinsonBrock PurdyChristian McCaffreyDak PrescottDrake Maye
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveProjection0:16
Bijan Robinson is part of a rare combination with Jameer Gibbs that makes taking a running back at 1.01 in superflex a viable alternative to Josh Allen.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveRole0:08
Bo Nix can run, representing the modern trend of NFL quarterbacks having baseline rushing ability.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:13
Bo Nix is going at 23 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is tight relative to pocket quarterbacks like Goff (25 overall) and Stafford (27 overall), suggesting he may be undervalued.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveRole0:08
Brock Purdy can run at least a little bit, representing the modern trend of NFL quarterbacks having baseline rushing ability.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection0:04
Caleb Williams is among the newer generation of dual-threat quarterbacks who have emerged as viable fantasy options with true top-three ceiling potential.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:19
Caleb Williams is going ahead of position players like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and JSN in superflex ADP, though analysts prefer position players in that range.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveValue0:19
Christian McCaffrey is being passed on the board by Caleb Williams in superflex ADP, though position players are preferred in that range.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection0:20
Dak Prescott is grouped in a tier with Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence in superflex rankings.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:04
Drake May is grouped in the tier of elite dual-threat quarterbacks (alongside Jaden Daniels and Joe Burrow) who have true top-three quarterback ceiling potential in fantasy.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveProjection0:13
Jalen Hurts is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks with true top-three ceiling potential and should not be going as close to pocket-style quarterbacks in ADP.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:13
Jalen Hurts is going at 9.1 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is tight relative to pocket quarterbacks like Goff (25 overall) and Stafford (27 overall), suggesting he may be undervalued.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Jalen Hurts is ranked at quarterback seven and is preferred ahead of Caleb Williams in superflex rankings.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeRole0:08
Jared Goff is a true statue quarterback becoming super rare, as almost all NFL quarterbacks now have baseline rushing ability.
Insight pageNegativeValue0:13
Jared Goff is going at 25 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is too close to dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts (9.1) and Bo Nix (23), suggesting he may be overvalued.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection0:13
Jaden Daniels is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks with true top-three ceiling potential and should not be going as close to pocket-style quarterbacks in ADP.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection0:19
Joe Burrow is in the elite tier of dual-threat quarterbacks (alongside Jaden Daniels and Drake May) and is ranked on his own tier in superflex rankings.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveValue0:19
Jonathan Taylor is being passed on the board by Caleb Williams in superflex ADP, though position players are preferred in that range.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection0:15
Josh Allen has ranked as a top two quarterback for seven straight years, providing exceptional stability and making him a viable 1.01 pick in superflex leagues despite the depth at the position.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:16
The addition of DJ Moore provides good news for Josh Allen's offensive environment heading into 2026.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveRole0:08
Justin Herbert can run, representing the modern trend of NFL quarterbacks having baseline rushing ability.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Justin Herbert is grouped in a tier with Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence, with Herbert at the top of that tier in superflex rankings.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveMatchup0:05
Kenneth Walker could have explosive games if defenses play cover two against the Chiefs, as he would face lighter boxes and have room to run.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury0:16
Lamar Jackson suffered a hamstring injury last year and came back not performing at his prior level, which has contributed to market recency bias against him.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:17
Lamar Jackson should see an upgrade in offensive coordinator and coaching, plus added weapons, and maintains his elite rushing upside, making him very similar to Josh Allen from an upside perspective despite going 2+ rounds later in best ball.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:17
Getting Lamar Jackson in the late fifth round in best ball formats represents strong upside value, making the 2+ round gap between him and Josh Allen unjustifiably wide.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeRole0:08
Matthew Stafford is a true statue quarterback nearing the end of his career, representing a dying breed as almost all NFL quarterbacks now have baseline rushing ability.
Insight pageNegativeValue0:13
Matthew Stafford is going at 27 overall in underdog superflex ADP, which is too close to dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts (9.1) and Bo Nix (23), suggesting he may be overvalued.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeValue0:13
Patrick Mahomes is going too close in ADP to elite dual-threat quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels, Drake May, and Jalen Hurts, suggesting he may be overvalued relative to those players.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveRole0:08
Trevor Lawrence can run, representing the modern trend of NFL quarterbacks having baseline rushing ability.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:20
Trevor Lawrence is grouped in a tier with Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott in superflex rankings.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 995 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:03My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:07As always, joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva. And the quarterback landscape in fantasy football continues to shift in massive ways.
0:14To discuss this, we are joined by a very, very, very special guest.
0:17JJ Zachariason of Late Round Fantasy Football is here.
0:20JJ, thanks for the time. How's it going, buddy?
0:23It's great, man. Thanks for having me on. Love talking ball with you guys.
0:27Wish we got to do it more often, honestly.
0:29Indeed. Also, Silva, how are you doing today? I'm doing all right.
0:33Now that the American soccer team has been eliminated, we can talk about real football on today's show.
0:38I don't disagree. That was humiliating. Absolutely. As Martin Cabrell would say for any poker fans out there, that was so embarrassment.
0:45Okay. Anyways, on today's show, we are going to focus on all things Superflex, aka two quarterback leagues, Superflex strategy, this year's ADPs.
0:52We'll also talk about quarterback-specific stuff such as sleepers, bus, and more.
0:55Before we get into it here today, reminder, our NFL early bird bundle product is now live.
1:00That combines DraftKings Pro, aka Silva's Top 150, all our ETR ranks, tons more, combines that with our in-season product, aka all
1:07our projections, premium shows, Silva's matchups, lots more there too.
1:09For details, head to the subscribe tab on establishtherun.com.
1:12All right, let's get into it here on quarterbacks.
1:15I want to start with kind of a bird's eye view of the quarterback position here, JJ, because quarterback stats have undoubtedly changed.
1:22In 2025, last season, we had just five, five quarterbacks who averaged 250 or more passing yards per game.
1:27In 2024, it was eight. I thought that was low in 2024.
1:31It was eight. In 2023, it was 11. 2022, 10.
1:342021, 12. In 2020, 16 quarterbacks averaged 250 or more passing yards per game.
1:38So there's a million different stats we can all throw out there about how passing games have gone down and down and
1:44down to the point we got bottomed out last year.
1:47JJ, what do you think the effects of this are for us in fantasy?
1:51And do you think that this trend is sticky?
1:54Yeah, I mean, look, if you think about this the way that we think about tight end pretty frequently, where tight end
2:00is really replaceable in fantasy football, because obviously you're starting one of them, but also because the points scored are like scrunched together.
2:07Right. There's not there's not as much variation from lower end tight end ones, et cetera, to, you know, obviously you're going
2:14to have the Brock Bowers of the world. But generally speaking, it's it's replaceable from that perspective with quarterback.
2:19You get a higher floor, but then obviously you get the higher ceiling because quarterbacks just score more points.
2:25But what this does and what this sort of new like meta in the NFL is doing, you know, we get these these run run heavy offenses.
2:33We get heavier personnel. What it's doing is that some of these quarterbacks are then just not scoring as many points.
2:39So we're just not seeing as good of quarterback ceilings.
2:42Now we're going to see one offs and stuff like that's going to happen.
2:46I'm just saying it from a macro level. And it's really interesting, actually, if you look at I think a couple of things are happening.
2:53One, there's that there's the macro stuff like a league wide the way offenses are running.
2:58But also I do this every year where I look at top 18 quarterbacks.
3:02You can do a top 24 if you want to as well.
3:06And I look at their ADP versus their postseason result.
3:09And I find the R square between those two things.
3:12So how predictive was ADP in explaining the variance of points per game in that given season?
3:17And so from like 2015 to 2019, which was that first MVP season from Lamar Jackson, there was literally like no correlation
3:23between where a quarterback was drafted in the top 18 and how he actually performed.
3:27And then that Lamar Jackson season happened and you start to get, I think, the market understanding that mobile quarterbacks mattered a little bit more.
3:35And so in 2020, we got the best correlation we had ever seen by far, like more than double any other season in terms of predictiveness.
3:42And then in 2021, it was even better. But then since 2021, every year, it's gotten progressively less predictive.
3:48And so what I think is going on is, number one, we get that that sort of like crunching, that scrunching of
3:55quarterback points that we're seeing that we saw last year.
3:57But the other thing that we're seeing is just more of these dual threat guys that have come out and have been viable.
4:04We've we've gotten Caleb Williams and Drake May and we have some guys this year that are really interesting.
4:10And what that means is that we now are getting to a point where there is I don't think we're quite there
4:16necessarily, but we're going to have like pretty soon 12 quarterbacks and a 12 team league where all of these guys have
4:23that like true top three quarterback ceiling. I don't know if we're like quite quite there yet, but we're gradually getting to that point.
4:30And that's a really big deal for our for our own strategies and how we approach the position.
4:35Yeah, deeper and flatter, I think, is is kind of the theme.
4:39And I'll talk more about that in a second.
4:41I'm curious if you think this is sticky, though, because I'm not always convinced that NFL trends are here to stay.
4:48In other words, lately, it has been let's go big.
4:50Let's run the ball. Let's throw short. That was a reaction to the way defense were playing, a.k.a.
4:56more cover to more safeties deep. You're not letting my homes throw over the top.
5:00What if, let's say this year, if you try to play cover two against the Chiefs, let's say Kenneth Walker is going to go absolutely berserk.
5:08I think if they try to play everybody deep, Kenneth Walker is going to be absolutely berserk.
5:13So maybe there's some like pendulum that swings back here.
5:16JJ, do you think there's any chance that this trend is not sticky starting this year?
5:20I think I mean, look, there's obviously a chance that last year was like the valley of this, right?
5:26Like it's a very real possibility. The one thing I'll say, though, is that I don't think it's going to be this
5:33dramatic shift from one year to the next, because also what's going on here is that like defenses are smaller because defenses
5:39were trying to react to what the spread of these spread offenses were doing, you know, in like that 2015 to 2017, 2018 time frame.
5:46And so how do you beat that? Well, you beat it with heavy and you beat it with with pounding the football
5:53and establishing the run, if you will. Yeah. And so and so I do think that, like, yes, it's a great point
5:59that a team like the Chiefs could easily just use Kenneth Walker and run all over these defenses.
6:05But at the same time, like if you take a step back and you look at just like EPA per play or
6:11EPA per rush, EPA per drop back, like you're still not getting enough of it.
6:16It's like it's like the the way that some defensive coordinators have looked at the game, you know, over the last decade
6:22where they're like, we'll let you run because we know that that's not nearly as effective as you making those big plays.
6:28I don't think we're quite there. Like you got to be really efficient on the ground for for that to dramatically change.
6:35I do think there's a chance, though, that last year was sort of the valley of this trend.
6:40But the other thing that really points me in the direction of like this might continue is the draft and the way
6:47that teams approach the draft and taking all these tight ends as early as they did and taking and like like even
6:53even Gladstone, the way that he talked about the Jags draft afterwards, where it was just like, well, the league's going heavy.
7:00So we got to go heavy, too, you know, and it's like, you know, I just I don't know if there's going
7:06to be enough innovation for them to really get out of this like this this this change so quickly.
7:12Yeah. Evan, do you have any takes on this?
7:14Generally speaking, the way NFL offenses have gone lately becoming so much more run heavy than we've seen over the last, I
7:21don't know, three to five years before that. Well, I think that one trend that could definitely be sticky is that I
7:27know that, you know, the premier dual threat quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, those guys are different.
7:32Those guys are, you know, generally like unicorns. But the quarterbacks in like the quarterback 10 through 19 range, you know, the
7:39vast majority of them can run at least a little bit.
7:42They have a baseline ability to and that was not always the case in the NFL.
7:47We saw like, you know, for years it was taught for quarterbacks not to run almost at all.
7:52And then we saw like Ben Roethlisberger retire and Philip Rivers retire and Tom Brady retire.
7:57And quarterbacks now or teams now want their quarterbacks to be able to run at least a little bit.
8:02Tyler Shuck can run, you know, Brock Purdy can run a little bit.
8:06Jackson Dart can definitely run. Bo Nix can run.
8:09Trevor Lawrence can run. Justin Herbert can run. That was not always the case that the quarterbacks that were not at the
8:15top of the heap in from a fantasy standpoint could run period.
8:19And that's another way to defeat cover two is to have your quarterback be able to run and pick up six yards, 11 yards here and there.
8:27And that's what guys like Tyler Shuck can do.
8:29And I think that that is here to stay.
8:32The true statue quarterbacks, and there are a couple of them left.
8:36Matthew Stafford, he's nearing the end of the line.
8:38Jared Goff. Those guys are becoming super, super rare.
8:41Almost all the quarterbacks in the NFL can run at least a little bit at a baseline level.
8:46Yep, and we're going to get into that too because that's such an important part of fantasy.
8:51Just to flip it to this year specifically a little bit more, I think what both JJ and Evan are describing is
8:58that the downstream effect of all these guys getting clustered is that the market is less willing to pay up for quarterback in single quarterback leagues.
9:05In other words, like outside of Josh Allen, who we'll get to, you get this huge cluster in one quarterback formats where
9:12you have 16 quarterbacks going between pick 60. And pick 125.
9:15You know, like from Jaden Daniels at quarterback three to Tyler Shuck at quarterback 20.
9:19They're separated by just five rounds. And so JJ's point at the beginning that these guys are not separating as much from
9:26each other anymore is reflected very much so in the ADP right now.
9:30And yeah, I mean, obviously I have some favorites in that range that I like more than other guys.
9:35But at least in the best ball streets for now, I'm just like kind of letting stacking guide the wheel for me.
9:42You know what I mean? Because there's such little that's separating a lot of these quarterbacks through here, especially quarterbacks.
9:48I don't know, quarterbacks seven through 20 or something like that.
9:51Anyways, what about super flex strategy specifically here, JJ?
9:54What is the typical super flex strategy that you think is correct or optimal for people?
9:58And then what about for this year specifically knowing everything we just said about the quarterback position?
10:03Yeah, I think over the last four or five years, it was smart to kind of go hero quarterback, if you will.
10:10Right. And kind of kind of get a guy that was super stable and had that super high ceiling.
10:15If you were in the 101 to 103 spot, like you could get Josh Allen and feel good about that and then
10:22kind of play that QB two spot by by tandem.
10:25Right. And getting a couple guys there. That's generally, you know, it's a solid enough strategy and approach.
10:30I wouldn't be spending too much capital on quarterback, you know, going like QB QB in the first couple rounds just because
10:37the opportunity cost becomes so immense with you not being able to get running back and wide receiver.
10:42But I think given the depth of the position and if you look at like, you know, obviously ADP, I always tell
10:48people to like I do super flex rankings and stuff and it's like like your individual league economy is going to drastically
10:55change from what an ADP source is going to say with super flex.
10:59Right. So you have to be very reactive to what's going on in your individual draft and like understanding tiers and understanding these drop offs and stuff.
11:07But the depth of the position this year makes me want to just grab three quarterbacks and like a late like quote
11:13unquote later rounds where you can get like you can realistically walk away from a draft this year with Tyler Shuck, Kyler Murray and like Baker Mayfield.
11:21Right. And have these three quarterbacks who are, you know, you get a couple guys who have the the the the the
11:27rushing upside and are in environments where we could see QB one upside and then a relatively stable piece that isn't going
11:34to lose his job and like a Baker. Right.
11:37And you get those three guys and you can get them after round four or three or four in like regular home league type super flex environments.
11:45And you're able to double tap running back if you want to and you're going to be getting better running backs in
11:51the typical double tap that you would get, you know, in a single quarterback league because all these guys are being pushed down a little bit.
11:59You can get one of the stud wide receivers.
12:01So you're winning at running back and wide receiver while also because of what we just talked about the depth of the position, how they're all scrunched up.
12:10You're still not losing that much at quarterback this year in particular with a trio like that.
12:15Now you could also like I think this year more than ever, you just got to understand like where these quarterback drop
12:21offs occur and where the tiers are and such because you could easily make the argument that like from QB nine or
12:28something or QB 10 to like QB 18. There's not a sincere difference whatsoever between those players.
12:33And so if you're getting the QB 18 at two rounds after the QB 10, then you're clearly getting a much better value out of that player.
12:40So understanding those drop offs are really what's key and I would try to get as many players at the bottom of that tier as I possibly could.
12:49Yeah. And this is really hard to convey in rankings, but like the underlying projection for us between quarterback 17 and quarterback 10 is like nine total points.
12:57Yeah. You know what I mean? So like, so I, you know, I, I, people get really caught up in where we have guys.
13:04It's really, really tight there at quarterback. I will say that like this kind of flows through to the one quarterback stuff
13:10also where I think that guys like Jaden Daniels and Drake may and Jalen hurts are going way too close to guys
13:17like Lawrence and Mahomes and Stafford and love and guys like that.
13:20Like, I don't think the separation there is. And I'll talk more about why here in a minute, but I want to
13:27note Evan, that's flowing through to two quarterback leagues.
13:30Also I'm looking at right now, underdog, a super flex ADP and like Jalen hurts goes at 9.1 and Bo Nix goes at 23.
13:37Overall golf goes at 25 overall Stafford goes at 27 or that strikes me as, as like very tight.
13:42So I know, you know, JJ talked about three late quarterbacks, hero quarterback with one of Allen Jackson, May Daniels, Burrow hurts
13:49also struck me as maybe working also. And then you hope to get your second quarterback there later.
13:54But yeah, Evan, any general thoughts on what's been going on at quarterback where some of the elites are going?
14:00Well, what I perceive to be the elites are going very close to more pocket ish type guys.
14:05I mean, I've just always, I mean, I've thought for a long time that the best way to draft in fantasy football
14:12is to have like, is to rely on tears.
14:14And I think that that is especially the case at the quarterback position.
14:18And that makes it very defined. Like we talk about how quarterback 11 and 19 could be separated by 10 points over the course of the season.
14:26Like just make sure that, you know, the quarterback in 11 through 19, like that's its own tier.
14:31You know, I mean, that's a tier of, it may, may feel uncomfortable to have like 10 years, 10 guys in a
14:38tier, but like, that's the way that it should be because of, you know, of the projections and how it falls.
14:44Even on a weekly basis, like quarterback 11, like in week four, quarterback 11 and 19 will be separated by like 4.7
14:51fantasy points, you know, at the end of, at the end of the week.
14:55So I just, I just think it's important to rely on tears.
14:58And I'm sure that trickles that I don't play a ton of super flex, but I'm sure that trickles down to super flex drafting as well.
15:06Okay. I want to talk about some super flex ADP here, JJ.
15:09And really, I also want to talk about one quarterback ADP when it comes to Josh Allen.
15:14Last year, Josh Allen and Lamar were going back to back.
15:18I thought that was right. You know, this year we're talking about a huge separation in where Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson go.
15:24Evan does not have it that wide in his top 150, the difference between Josh Allen and Lamar.
15:30The market thinks that Josh Allen is rounds and tears above Lamar.
15:33So JJ, where are you at on Josh Allen?
15:36Is it worth the 1.01 in super flex? And should he be going two or three rounds ahead of Lamar Jackson in one quarterback leagues?
15:43I don't think it's like absurd in a super flex league to take Josh Allen first overall, because, you know, if we're
15:50looking at this from like a, especially more of a season long angle, you know, in a, in a managed league angle,
15:56there is a lot of just insane stability. I mean, the dude's ranked as a top two quarterback for like seven straight
16:03years, you know, like there's so much stability from that perspective with Allen.
16:06And, and, and there's really not much changing other than, you know, hopefully good things with the, the addition of DJ more.
16:13And so I'm not, I'm not against that. You know, I think that you could easily argue that like, like it's very
16:19rare to find the combination that like Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs are giving you.
16:24So you don't have to go that route and you could easily go the running back route, but you know, let's just
16:30throw them all in the same tier. Now, if you're talking about like the difference between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I
16:37would agree wholeheartedly, especially in like a best ball environment.
16:40I mean, the best ball stuff right now hasn't made that much sense to me at all as to why, you know,
16:46Josh Allen's been going like two rounds ahead of Lamar Jackson, if not more in some drafts.
16:51Just because I think a lot of it's just, just a recency bias thing with Lamar in that hamstring last year where
16:58he came back and just was not the same.
17:00And, and now you get hopefully an upgrade in, in OC and coaching, you know, we'll see what happens there.
17:06They added some weapons as well. We have a backbone of Lamar doing crazy things with his legs.
17:11There's just, to me, very similar upside case. You could definitely argue the floor case is different because what if this was the turning point for Lamar?
17:19But I think all of us play with upside in mind a lot more, especially if you're in like the, you know,
17:26if you're playing on DK or something, you're getting Lamar in the late fifth.
17:30It's like, yeah, this is a, this is an upside case thing at this point.
17:34Right. So yes, I think the gap between the two should not be nearly as big as it currently is.
17:40Agreed. Do you think when you're playing super flex, how much does half PPR versus full PPR change your mind on this quarterback stuff?
17:47You know, I think underdogs format is way more conducive to taking Josh and Lamar types early.
17:52They will be a bigger part of your score.
17:55Obviously running backs and receivers score less raw points when it's half PPR versus full PPR.
18:00Do you think that flows through to super flex strat also?
18:03Yeah. I mean, I think that one of the big things that people miss with super flex is that you don't have
18:09to play a quarterback in the super flex spot.
18:12You know, like you, you can realistically stack wide receivers in a full PPR format and get some crazy ceiling weeks from
18:19them and they can find your super flex spot.
18:21If you're playing best ball, or if you do go with three later round quarterbacks, let's say it's by weeks, you know,
18:28you, you, you got two of them on by and you're going to have to throw one of these guys into your flex.
18:34Like realistically, some of these wide receivers, even from a point per game standpoint are going to outscore some of these like
18:41lower tiered quarterbacks just going to happen on a, on a weekend week out basis, let alone a random one week where
18:47you just need a guy to fill in in some way.
18:51So especially in best ball where you can have a grouping of seven, eight wide receivers that would be filling in for that super flex spot.
18:58It's a bigger deal in PPR. Yeah. Because those guys are getting that, that extra half point and that could, that could
19:05equate to three or four more points for that player in that week.
19:09And that alone is making up the difference between that guy to a, to a quarterback.
19:13All right. Behind Josh and Lamar, you get an ADP five or six more quarterbacks going in round one here.
19:19Evan Drake may Drayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen hurts, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert.
19:23In other words, like ADP on Caleb Williams and super flex.
19:26He's going ahead of Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, JSN.
19:29I think I lean more on JJ's side, that position player there.
19:32Once you get past that tier, that includes may Daniels, bro.
19:36For me hurts. I'll talk about why, but once you get past that tier, I'm more like a position player there, but
19:42Evan, do you have any favorites for you there out of that tier?
19:46The may Daniels burrow hurts, Caleb Herbert type stuff.
19:49I have all those guys fairly close together, but, um, I mean, they're, they're like all like next to each other in, in the tiers.
19:56I have burrow, Jaden Daniels and Drake may on their own tier.
20:00Skip down a little bit. Caleb Williams and Jalen hurts.
20:02I know that you're higher than I am on Jalen hurts.
20:06Probably Adam. Yes. I have Jalen hurts at quarterback seven.
20:09Would you have him ahead of Caleb Williams? Yes, definitely.
20:12Yeah. Um, and then I have Herbert Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence in their own tier with Herbert at the top.
20:18Um, I like so much. And I'd like to hear JJ's take on Jalen hurts because this is going to become a
20:24hot button thing because, you know, Adam is taking the stance that removing Kevin Petulo is going to be big time, uh, addition by subtraction.
20:32I don't like the fact that it's still going to be a super run heavy offense in all likelihood.
20:37I don't think that the Eagles are going to take a step back defensively.
20:41I don't like the potential deterioration of the offensive line and how much the offensive line has helped create, you know, what Jalen hurts sort of became.
20:49And I don't like the removal of AJ Brown.
20:52So I'm kind of a bear on Jalen hurts, although not really.
20:55I mean, I have him as the quarterback seven overall.
20:58Um, whereas Levitan is taking like, well, let's think of the upside possibilities, which I totally get because Jalen hurts does have
21:05it in his bag to maybe run for 10 to 15 rushing touchdowns alone.
21:09What do you think about Jalen hurts this year?
21:12JJ. I'm in on hurts. I mean, I was in on hurts last year because I didn't think Kevin Petulo could be such a freaking horrific OC.
21:20Um, but yeah, I mean like I I'm in because if you look at what Phillies offense did last year, uh, they
21:26were last in EPA per play, which is the, I mean, amongst Jalen hurts his seasons as starters.
21:31This wasn't overall last in EPA per play last in rushing EPA last in rushing success rate, uh, last in yards per play.
21:38Uh, they didn't see, I mean, we all know this.
21:41They haven't, they didn't see nearly as much motion.
21:44There wasn't nearly as much RPO. There wasn't, I mean, it's literally all the dumb things that we know offensive coordinator shouldn't be doing.
21:51And I don't want to, I don't want to understate that.
21:54Like, I think it's actually a pretty big deal because we know that that, uh, coordinator and the environment that they can create can do so much.
22:02I mean, I'm sure we're going to talk about Mike McDaniel at some point, but it's the reason that we're everyone's bullish on the chargers right now.
22:10Right. Um, and the other thing too, is before last year, Jalen hurts failed to score 20 standard fantasy points, zero times in his end as, as starter.
22:18I mean, the floor is crazy and it's why, like I have hurts ranked ahead of Joe burrow right now, which might
22:25sound spicy, but if you look historically at players, like where, we're with, like with burrow, where you get fewer than two
22:31points per game via rushing one season with a 6% touchdown rate or higher.
22:35So they were getting it all done, you know, basically through the air and look burrow is amazing.
22:41So he's going to be able to sustain this kind of thing, you know, better than, than any other quarterback will.
22:47But there is just such a great floor with rushing that still is underserved by the market and not recognized as well by the market.
22:54Like if you look at correlation of passing points per game and rushing points per game, a quarterback rushing points per game
23:01correlate more than twice as strongly as passing points per game do year over year.
23:05And so, cause we know there's just an insane amount of variance with the passing stuff.
23:10And so, um, my, my thing, like the, the hardest part for me with hurts is that I do think there is
23:16at least something to the idea of him, his frequency and throwing it over the middle of the field and his ability
23:23to throw it over the middle of the field and the talent that they drafted obviously with Mikhail Lemon and Eli Stowers.
23:29But then I look at the Eagles and it's a sharp organization and you have to think that they're not making those
23:36choices without knowing that, you know, without that being top of mind for them.
23:40So because of that, I'm, I'm willing to buy in because I think he's just, he's just a little bit undervalued versus
23:46like where like a guy like burrow ends up going.
23:49Yeah. I'll say this on hurts. I think that he, after the super bowl, maybe thought he had too much power and Kevin Petulo was too weak.
23:57And he told Petulo and the staff, I don't really want to do all these design runs anymore.
24:02I'm a great thrower. I'm a great pocket passer.
24:05And now after last year's disaster, they get rid of Petulo.
24:08They bring in Sean Mannion. I don't think he can say that anymore because he wants to keep his job.
24:14Like there's rumors in Philly that if he doesn't play well, they're going to go to someone else, Tanner McKee or, or, or whoever else.
24:21And so if he comes out, he's not going to come out and say, I don't want design runs anymore.
24:27If they want to win, if he wants to keep his job, if he wants to keep getting paid, he better start running.
24:34Jalen hurt Jarrett hurts and not run for fewer than 10 touchdowns in a season in his career as a starter also
24:41had not run fewer than 600 yards. It's just this one year blip where he runs for 421 yards and just eight
24:47touchdowns under this adult, under this adult Petulo. So I, you know, I, I like, I like her.
24:52So I, you know, I think at cost him or Jaden Daniels would probably be my favorites right now, but I take
24:59a ton of Lamar ton of Jaden. And I like Drake may also, and ton of Jalen hurts here as well in
25:05that tier in the one quarterback stuff. All right.
25:08JJ talked about the strategy in super flex of lighter quarterback starts.
25:11In other words, not as much draft capital early on quarterbacks.
25:15If you do that, I feel like you're under a lot of pressure or at least some pressure to hit on some of these thinner quarterbacks late.
25:23I'll throw three at you JJ that I really liked that go a little bit later.
25:27And just from a rushing perspective, Jackson Dart, Kyler Murray, Malik Willis.
25:31Like I'm taking those guys a lot in single quarterback.
25:34I could see how you could build a super flex room around those guys too.
25:38Do you have any favorites out of those? Or do you like those guys at all?
25:43And what do you think about strategy for people who eschew quarterback early in super flex?
25:48Yeah. I mean, yes. I like, like all of them.
25:51We, we developed a new metric this off season called market score, which takes average draft position.
25:56And then it takes some inputs from the previous season and it creates a score from zero to a hundred for that player.
26:02So it's just based on like market inputs, right?
26:05So if the ADP rises, his score will go up a little bit, but it's all dependent on like what they did in the previous season.
26:13Jackson darts market score is wild. Like wild and his comps are insane, which I think shouldn't, when you really think about
26:19it, shouldn't come as that much of a surprise given what he did last year and what he did from a fantasy football perspective last year, right?
26:27In the way that he threw his body around and was able to generate points via rushing.
26:32But like, we're getting like, like into that, like Josh Allen type territory from a comp perspective, like a ceiling comp perspective.
26:39Right. I think the fear with dart is, you know, they go more ground ground heavy and it's a more of a boring off and whatever.
26:46But I'm more bullish than not. Even without, even with the Malik neighbor stuff that's been going on.
26:52I think part of the reason why, like, even in, let's say in best ball that he goes where he goes, which
26:58I think is too late is just because there's not easy stacking partners for him.
27:02Right. It's a similar situation that you get with like Jalen hurts where it's only Devante Smith early.
27:08And so it's a little bit harder for, for people to want to draft him naked.
27:12Cause then you have to, you know, figure out what to do after that.
27:17So yes, I'm in on, on dart. I think that the other guys that you mentioned, uh, Kyler and Malik Willis, you
27:23know, they're obviously going to go even later. Kyler, um, is, is a really easy click.
27:28I think this year, he hasn't had less than 4.7 points per game via rushing in his career, which is, you know,
27:34usually if you're over the four mark, um, that that's a, that's a number that, that gives a lot of stability for these quarterbacks.
27:41A touchdown rate has really been the problem for Kyler Murray, where it's been under that 4% mark.
27:47But if you look at Kevin O'Connell and his offenses, they've been above that mark essentially every year outside of wet, well
27:53above that mark every year, aside from last year when, when JJ McCarthy was starting, but even still like JJ McCarthy's touchdown
28:00rate last year was comparable to what we've seen from Kyler Murray over the last like four years.
28:05Right? So I think that, that Murray has a really, really great shot to, uh, outpace his ADP and then Malik Willis.
28:11I'll say this about Willis in a single quarterback league.
28:14I think Malik Willis is the easiest click in fantasy football this year, period, because you can make up for the mistake really, really easily.
28:22You know, it's not that big of a deal if he does bust and I, you know, generally, generally speaking, we don't
28:28see busts like from guys who are, who could be this prolific from a rushing perspective.
28:33Um, but you know, in super flex, it's a little bit different because you do want to play the floor game a little bit more.
28:40Like you, like if I'm, if I'm drafting Malik Willis, I'm hoping that if he's my QB two, I'm getting that QB
28:47three really quickly after I draft Malik Willis and I'm not relying on like Geno Smith or someone who might not have
28:53his gig late in this or Jacoby Brissett or something like that later in the season.
28:58I want a little bit more stability for my quarterback room, but yeah, I mean like he averaged 58 rushing yards and
29:04a rushing touchdown per green Bay start. It's like almost 12 points per game with his legs.
29:09Cause he's shown a ceiling at times, you know, that Baltimore game, he was wildly good.
29:14Um, you know, for, for the Packers. And I know the, the circumstances are awful in Miami, like there's no doubt, but
29:20I think the question we have to just ask is like, what if he's just better than we expect?
29:26And what if he can throw the ball well?
29:29And then all of a sudden you're getting a literal cheat code at quarterback.
29:33So I think in both formats, he's fine. It's just that if you're drafting him in super flex, you really got to
29:39think of like, okay, what could happen if this does go South and just kind of make up for that later in the draft?
29:46Yeah. I mean, there, the, what judge is referring to is if you go on the waiver wire in a super flex
29:53league and start looking for quarterback, forget it. Like you're cooked.
29:56Whereas in a one quarterback league, there are a ton of guys that we could start on a week to week basis.
30:03If the Blake Willis thing goes bad, Evan, any favorite later round clicks for you in super flex?
30:08If you start off thinner at quarterback. Jordan love is a guy that I think is really interesting this year because we
30:14do have one season on his resume of him nearing 600 pass attempts.
30:18And I think that that, and he was the quarterback five that year.
30:22He threw for 32 touchdown passes. He ran for four.
30:25He ran for zero rushing touchdowns last year. I feel like that's a statistic that could regress a little bit positively for
30:31him, especially if Josh Jacobs is out for an extended period of time, which I sort of think that he might be,
30:38um, if you read the latest from drew Davenport, I mean, it wasn't particularly optimistic about Josh Jacobs playing a full season.
30:44And I also think that Josh Jacobs might be a little bit out of gas as well.
30:49I think that we could see the Packers lean more on Jordan love this year.
30:54And he's put together, he hasn't put together a full dominant season, but he's had like stretches where he is like the hottest quarterback in the NFL.
31:02If he could do that for the majority of a season or even for a full season, Jordan love could be an absolute steal, I think.
31:09And he's a guy that you can run. You kind of got to tell a story about yourself, about him being a
31:16productive rusher because he really hasn't been one almost at all in his NFL career.
31:20But I mean, he is athletic enough to run.
31:23So maybe they could encourage him to do so a little bit more.
31:27I liked that JJ brought up Jackson Dart. No one, myself included, wants to draft Malik Neighbors right now.
31:32But man, he continues to get cheaper and cheaper.
31:35And people don't really want to draft Jackson Dart either.
31:38That could actually be in best ball in particular, best ball super flex and super flex it in the stretch run.
31:44In the second half of the season, is it crazy to think that Jackson Dart and Malik Neighbors could be like a league winning stack?
31:51I mean, that's something that is possible. There are a lot of negatives that you could tell yourself about the Giants.
31:58Matt Nagy, you know, how are they going to use Jackson Dart?
32:01Are they going to let him run wild like Brian Daybold did, you know, theoretically to save his job, which didn't work last year.
32:08But I mean, the idea of Jackson Dart and Malik Neighbors being a big time upside connection in the second half of 2026, like that's not unrealistic.
32:16Yeah, I talked about that some on Market Monday for anybody who wants a deeper take from me on Malik Neighbors.
32:22I'll just say this, you know, people that are playing in super flex home leagues, you don't have to worry about stacking.
32:29And especially with some of these quarterbacks that we're talking about, I don't even worry about that much in best ball.
32:35Like I'm fine having naked Dart and I have an insane amount of naked Willis.
32:39I mean, people are making fun of me. They're sending me memes of me in bed with naked Malik Willis, you know,
32:46like that stuff is totally, totally fine. So don't get bogged down in the stacking stuff, certainly if you're in a super flex home league type of stuff.
32:54One guy that we didn't mention that's going mega, mega late, JJ is Daniel Jones.
32:59Like first half of last year, I was cooking, man.
33:01And now he is going, I mean, I'm looking at the super flex ADP here.
33:06He's going in like the Bryce Young, Cam Ward, CJ Stroud type range.
33:10I get it. You do not want your fantasy quarterback to have a right Achilles injury and have having lost Michael Pittman.
33:16Like I get all that. And having Alec Pierce coming off an ankle, I get all that.
33:21Am I crazy that Daniel Jones has more ceiling and super flex than maybe people are giving him credit for?
33:27I mean, you got to look at what team actions are.
33:30Right. And like they, it just doesn't seem like it's, I don't know, maybe the coaches don't panic over anything because they're
33:37not panicking over like the Alec Pierce stuff right now.
33:40And we're all sitting here like, what is this wide receiver room really going to look like?
33:45Especially if he's like banged up and maybe, maybe there's just not enough of that just like going on.
33:50And they're just a super calm front office and organization.
33:53But yeah, I mean, like it seems like they're cool with what's going on with Daniel Jones going into the season.
33:59And one of the, one of the trends. So I look at, at, at trends versus ADP.
34:04So I look at ADP expectation every year and I see what are sort of the, the, the traits that these players
34:11who really outperform their expected ADP or, you know, points per game based on their ADP historically, like what are the things
34:17that make them really blow up or play under and underperform and bust.
34:21And one of the things with late round quarterbacks, it's just so glaringly obvious is previous season fantasy points per drop back, right?
34:28Just that simple of a metric. And there's a threshold that you can generally look at.
34:33It's around like 0.45 last year. This got me on Trevor Lawrence, for instance this year, one of the only guy, I
34:39mean, Malik Willis is one obviously just because he has a smaller sample, but the other guy was Daniel Jones.
34:45Daniel Jones's fantasy points per drop back was sickening last year.
34:48And obviously the reason he's being drafted later is because of the Achilles.
34:52But I would argue that given the way the market views Jones in general, I don't know how much higher he would
34:59really be drafted even if he were totally healthy.
35:01You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. So like, I think he's not a bad pick.
35:06I, I'll be honest. Like I, I like him probably more in like deep single quarterback leagues where you can have like
35:12a bench quarterback or something like that because he's a nice like upside play.
35:17But realistically, I think he's going to start and I don't think he's going to necessarily lose his job unless an injury happens.
35:23And if that is the case, then you're getting a, a starter, a stable piece, you know, in super flex and it might be fine.
35:31I just, you know, beware of like, I mean, they were clearly playing over their heads.
35:35Like they were first in the league and touchdowns per drive line and points per drive last year through the first 10 weeks.
35:42It's not going to happen again, but still like there's, there's still some interesting upside there.
35:47For sure. Uh, two, uh, macro team takes that I have that I just want to get off my chest while we're talking quarterbacks.
35:54When you remove David Montgomery from the lions and you go to Jameer Gibbs feature back, perhaps you'd lean a little bit
36:00more throw heavy in the red zone. Perhaps you'd lean a little bit more throw heavy inside the five yard line.
36:07And I'm interested in that because the lions have the softest schedule in the entire NFL.
36:11I don't think it's crazy. I think the lions could lead the NFL in touchdowns this season.
36:16And if they're going to be more throw heavy in the red zone, maybe Jared Goff, there's for like 45 touchdowns.
36:22I don't think that's crazy at all. I just want to get that take off my chest.
36:27And the other tech I want to get off my chest is a lot of people are worried about Bucky Irving.
36:34If they go to Kenny Gainwell feature back, that screams throw heavy offense.
36:37And like Zach Robinson's been very into three wide receiver formation.
36:41So like the Baker, McMillan, Godwin, Egbuka, Otten stuff with Gainwell, I think is interesting if you're mega low Bucky, or if
36:47you think Bucky is going to be more of a receiving back than rushing back this year.
36:52I think both those make sense as like pocketish passers who could really see their TD rates spike off in Mayfield here this year.
36:59All right. Anytime that I draft Brock Bowers, I know that I can get Fernando Mendoza for very, very cheap near the end of the draft.
37:07The best ball, I think, are rightfully a bit more scared because you have to, when he doesn't start.
37:12You need guys to start. Right. Exactly. Whereas in like a more managed format, I agree with you, Mendoza is going to play a lot.
37:20And I think he's an interesting pick late there as well in managed super flex for sure.
37:25Okay. Let's get some guys that we don't like.
37:28Evan's not going to like this one. But just relative to where he goes, I'd say the quarterback that I like least is Caleb Williams.
37:35Caleb, even last year with Ben Johnson, sack rate was way down, which was great, but still he only completed 58% of his passes.
37:42It's really hard to be a really good NFL quarterback and a really good fantasy quarterback if you're not an elite runner.
37:48And I think Caleb's a good runner, not elite runner.
37:51He's not going to do like, you know, anywhere near what the elite guys do.
37:56And I also think that there's some other guys like, I don't know, like Trevor Lawrence and Drake May and guys like that who can outrun Caleb also.
38:04But 58% of his passes and not an elite runner.
38:07And then in the fantasy playoffs, Caleb plays at Buffalo, you know, as soon as can be very cold.
38:13Home against Green Bay, very cold and windy. Home against Detroit, very cold and windy.
38:17So I think like a toughish playoff schedule combined with the mess of a completion percentage.
38:22He's just going so high. I don't know if you're aware of this, Evan.
38:26I wasn't. I looked at it. Caleb Williams ADP and super flex on underdog is 11.1.
38:30A first round pick. Caleb Williams is going before Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jack Smith and Jigba, Amon Ross St.
38:36Brown, James Cook. That strikes me as just wrong.
38:39So Evan, I know you're a you've been a lifelong Bears fan since last year.
38:43Go ahead on Caleb Williams. I mean, I listened to enough Chicago sports talk radio to know that I can respond to your 58% completion rate statistic with.
38:52Well, yeah, but the Bears led the NFL and dropped passes last year.
38:56So, I mean, I ripped that right from 670.
38:58The score shout out. But that's insane that Caleb Williams would be going ahead of Christian McCaffrey and all those guys and super flex.
39:05I don't care what format it is. You know, like that's crazy to me.
39:09I mean, I just I think that Caleb Williams has a massive and he's going to have to hit it in order to fit.
39:16I think he's got a massive touchdown pass ceiling.
39:19I know that he can be a dynamic runner.
39:22It's not quite Jordan Love where you got to tell yourself a story about his rushing potential.
39:27Because Jordan Love has been in the league longer, a lot longer than Caleb Williams and hasn't run really almost at all.
39:33But we know that Caleb Williams can be a super, super dynamic runner.
39:37He was that in college. He has been that when he has run in the NFL.
39:42I mean, he can like break tackles. I mean, he's a he can be a prolific runner if he wants to.
39:48I think that Colson Loveland is an absolute beast and I think that Luther Burden can be an absolute beast and Ben Johnson obviously is.
39:55And they've got a good offensive line. I mean, they're set up to score a lot of touchdowns this year.
40:01So it's almost a similar theory to your Jared Goff thing.
40:04And also, I think their defense is going to be absolute trash.
40:08I mean, yeah, it's going to be worse than last year because there's no way they can maintain that their turnover differential.
40:14I mean, it's a shootout offense. Those are the factors that I'm baking on with Caleb Williams this year.
40:20I do agree with you. I think you've talked to me.
40:23Both of you guys have talked me into having Jalen Hurts ahead of Caleb Williams.
40:28I probably should have had that before. I'm going to make that change after the show.
40:32Yeah. I mean, Caleb's had some unbelievable finishes like clutch fourth quarter, putting up huge numbers.
40:37I don't know how sustainable that is, but there are certainly some guys that have better clutch gene than others.
40:43I think generally speaking. Yeah, I'm not leaning on the clutch gene, though.
40:47Yeah, I want to be clear about that. I mean, Caleb Williams, I mean, what if he does that for a full game?
40:54Yeah. You know what I mean? Like, he could do that, too.
40:57I mean, he did that stuff in college. JJ, where do you cut it off for round one in super flex?
41:03I think Josh, Lamar, Drake May, Jaden, I think are all round one super flex picks.
41:08But in ADP right now, Burrow, Hurts, Caleb, and Herbert are all going round one.
41:12Would you take those guys in round one? So I'm looking at my rankings right now.
41:17I do have that because I have a tier of Hurts, Jaden Daniels, and Burrow together.
41:22Right. So I have those guys in round one.
41:24But then in like later in round mid to late round two is where I get like the Caleb, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence type type guys.
41:32Right. So, yeah, I mean, I think it's too rich.
41:35Caleb Williams there. You know, you mentioned that it is really wild that Caleb Williams, according to next gen stats, was last
41:41in the league in completion percentage over expected last year, which is kind of wild when you think about like the perception of.
41:48And I get it. Like it's he's he's I mean, clearly we see the ceiling and clearly we see the intrigue.
41:54Right. But I do think there might be a little bit more risk involved than what the market is kind of showing right now to a degree.
42:02So I'm probably probably lean. I'm probably in between you guys, but probably lean a little bit more Levitan in the case of Caleb.
42:09Yeah. And even in our one QB rankings, we're pretty far behind market on Caleb in the ETR rankings.
42:15JJ, any avoids or busts for you at any at any spot in the draft at the quarterback position this year?
42:21Yeah, I'll call out two guys. The first one, I think, is an easier one, but I want to give the market
42:28some props because Matthew Stafford historically would have been like a top seven quarterback in ADP.
42:32Right. Like would have easily been like if you look at every quarterback, there's been 13 of them since 2014 who had
42:39a 7% touchdown rate or better in a season.
42:42All of them were top 10 quarterbacks the following year.
42:44The majority of them are top six quarterbacks. Um, and, and so, and that's, that's with, after coming off the seasons are
42:51this with a, uh, or no, yeah, that's right.
42:54Um, so they, they're, they're generally speaking, we're seeing these guys get drafted in the top eight, top six, you know, after
43:00these massive touchdown rate seasons, Matthew Stafford's not there.
43:03Now I still think personally that he's still a little bit too high.
43:07If you look at season long ADP and if you look even like best ball is different because you're just stacking, whatever.
43:13You're just, you're just taking them. If you take Puka or Devante Adams, but if you look at those quarterbacks, there's 13
43:19who had a 7% or better touchdown rate since 2014, 12 of them played eight or more games.
43:25The following year, those 12 averages 18 fantasy points per game.
43:28Right. And I know that you'll say, Oh, but Stafford's environment's different.
43:32And this is different, but it's like, no, I mean like these other guys had really good environments too.
43:37It's just that touchdown rate ends up regressing year over year.
43:40So Stafford, I also think that in home leagues, Stafford's going to end up being like QB seven, you know, oftentimes.
43:47And it's just way too rich for me. Just given the fact that he's going to be a zero from a, from a rushing perspective.
43:54And then the other one, I haven't really fired this off that much.
43:58So I'm very curious about your reactions to this.
44:00I'm still a little bit, I can be talked into it, but right now today, I'm still a little bit nervous about Patrick Mahomes.
44:07And the main reason for that is if you look at how, so he was good last year, obviously scored over 20 fantasy points per game.
44:15Like he finally got back to his old self to a degree.
44:19But, you know, even when you look at his passing numbers, you know, he still didn't have like a crazy yards per attempt rate.
44:26Like he did when he was throwing the ball down the field really frequently.
44:30The chiefs obviously didn't improve on their, their wide receiver room all that much.
44:34You know, this, this off season in their past catching room, what they did was they added Kenneth Walker, which screams to
44:40me that they're probably going to try, at least try to be a little bit more run heavy.
44:46And that could also impact what they do at the goal line and in the red zone.
44:51And then the other thing with Mahomes that part of the huge reason that he was as good as he was in
44:57fantasy last year is because he averaged over five points per game via rushing.
45:01And now he's coming off this ACL and it makes me a little bit nervous about drafting him at cost.
45:07Because to me, I like, you know, if you're, if you're comparing, I know he goes a little bit behind these guys,
45:14but if you're comparing him to like a T law or Justin Herbert, like, I think it's just very easy to go that direction.
45:21And then he's in this area where right after him is like a Brock Purdy, a Bo Nix or whomever who I
45:27think has just as good of a floor ceiling combo as he does.
45:31So to me, it's just not a necessary thing to take on.
45:35So he's been, been more of a fade for me so far this off season.
45:39I mean, the weaponry, you know, I'm not as worried about the ACL stuff.
45:43I think that's going to be fine. The weaponry situation continues to be really poor.
45:48I mean, you can't trust Rasheed Rice and he runs his route so close on line of scrimmage.
45:53Anyways, I'm still not convinced Xavier Worthy is a good player.
45:56And then they're gonna be rolling out this buffoon Travis Kelsey and Taequann Thornton.
46:00Like, you know, I just, I don't know what you expect from Mahomes.
46:04He has to go like full superhero to get there.
46:07So I agree, we're a little bit behind market on Mahomes in the super flex rankings here right now.
46:13But yeah, Evan, any thoughts on Mahomes or any other quarterbacks you want to highlight as a void or target?
46:18Yeah, I was looking at my quarterback rankings versus just ADP.
46:22And I mean, I'm within three spots of every guy.
46:25So there's no like huge gap between ADP and where I have a quarterback rank.
46:29Like the guys that I were going to bring up were Stafford and Mahomes.
46:33I don't really have a whole lot of optimism for Mahomes really at all in fantasy for almost all the exact same reasons that JJ laid out.
46:41He was so reliant on his rushing last year.
46:44He was awesome as a runner last year, which is easy to forget now.
46:48And I mean, you know, we've seen like the Chiefs wouldn't use Patrick Mahomes in sneak situations anymore after he had like the ankle stuff.
46:55You really think they're going to let him run coming off a double ligament knee tear?
47:00No. You know, and then they go out and spend all the money on Kenneth Walker.
47:05Like that is not adding up to be a productive fantasy situation whatsoever.
47:08I think that Brock Purdy and then the massive touchdown rate, you know, regression that's probably incoming for Matthew Stafford.
47:14I think that Brock Purdy could be a little bit of a steal.
47:18He can run a little bit. I mean, you know, the thought of and it's is George Kittle going to be ready for week one?
47:26I mean, that would be really nice, even if he's not a dynamic pass catcher right out of the gate.
47:31Mike Evans, I think, still can be even at his advanced age.
47:35I think that if Ricky Pearsall can stay healthy, you know, for if we get 13 or 14 games out of him, he can be a productive player.
47:43And then just, you know, relying on the system.
47:46And Brock Purdy is a dude who can make plays out of structure, too.
47:50I think that this could be a big year for him.
47:53Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But but at the end of the day, like I don't really have big separation between my rankings and
48:00ADP at the quarterback position in particular. Yeah. On Purdy, from a math perspective, we're pretty far ahead of market.
48:06And like Purdy has been a very, very underrated and good fantasy quarterback for a long time.
48:11And so we're definitely at the ETR model ranks with Evan on Brock Purdy.
48:15Just to double click on JJ's point real quick about Matthew Stafford.
48:18Like touchdown rate when it gets outlier year over year is like the biggest fade spot from these pocket quarterbacks.
48:24This is how we got on a big fade on CJ Stroud after his rookie year.
48:29He had this outrageously high year one touchdown rate throwing regressed massively.
48:32Baker Mayfield coming off that huge year was going way too high because of his touchdown rate.
48:37And so year over year, Matthew Stafford is going to regress.
48:41I just want to note we are baking that in and Stafford still looks OK for us from a math perspective.
48:47So like we're baking in a huge touchdown throwing rate reduction on Matthew Stafford.
48:51And he still looks OK for us versus market.
48:54So but I agree with JJ and home league Stafford is going to go higher than I think he should.
48:59Yeah. OK, let me ask JJ. What are your thoughts on a big second year step up for Kim Ward?
49:05I'm I'm much more in a Tyler Shuck than I am.
49:09Well, you're preaching to the choir. Yeah, for obvious reasons.
49:11The Ward stuff scares me just because historically, you know, the kinds of season that he had.
49:16The these are these are like I always think about this from like a dynasty lens to just because it's easier whenever
49:23you're because you're thinking about career trajectory a little bit.
49:26And like what typically happens. And this is usually nine times out of 10, eight times out of 10 the time that
49:32you just sell that player and move on and don't make excuses for him.
49:36Right. Because I think that's where we're at. With that being said, I like what Tennessee has done from a personnel standpoint.
49:43I think Wanda and Carnell Tate are the perfect pairing and what they do and where they win.
49:48And that, you know, Tate paired with with Cam Ward's big arm should be very helpful.
49:53And I think we could see a little bit more, you know, rushing, especially with Dable as OC, where we've seen historically,
49:59you know, Josh Allen and Jackson Dart and these guys, you know, like like the throw your body around type archetype.
50:06I think we could see it a little bit more with Cam Ward than what we saw last year.
50:11So I've actually drafted him in like basketball. I think it's fine as like a QB three type.
50:16But if I'm making a bet on a year two player, it's funny.
50:20If you look at ADP trends and you focus on career year, year two is one of the best years that you
50:27want to focus on from a value perspective because they give you such a huge ceiling.
50:32They give you a huge floor, an awful floor also.
50:34But generally speaking, we don't care about floor and single quarterback, you know, leagues.
50:39Obviously, super flex is a little bit different. But, you know, if I were to bet on one of these guys, I
50:45think Shuck just played better than him last year.
50:48Better environment this year. You know, pace of play is gonna be awesome.
50:52Jordan Tyson, et cetera. I mean, it just looks really great for for Shuck on paper.
50:56But with Ward, you know, I'm fine. I would just treat him as a QB three more than a QB two.
51:02I think they're going way too close together, you know, and like this is it goes back to my point about all the quarterbacks getting clustered.
51:10I think Shuck should be a tier ahead of Cam Ward and super flex.
51:14They're only going nine or 10 picks apart are Shuck and Cam Ward here.
51:18Last quarterback take for me. There has been so much discussion this offseason in the fantasy community about who is the right pick on the Jaguars wide receivers.
51:27Who's the right pick on the Jaguars running back?
51:29Who's the right pick on Chargers wide receiver? What about Chargers tight end?
51:33All of this is just like I don't want all the micro there to kind of blind me from Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are good picks.
51:41Like and in home league setting, super flex setting, I'm way more willing to take them naked and not worry about all that other stuff.
51:48From a coaching perspective, Liam Cohen and Mike McDonald from a weaponry perspective, from a skill set perspective with both of them.
51:55Like they both make so much sense to me.
51:57And so I just don't want to get the micro of arguing about the skill players lost.
52:02And I think Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are really good mid-round picks this year at quarterback.
52:07All right. Sylvan, any other quarterback takes you want to get off your chest before we get out of here?
52:13No, I think that's it. JJ, any final quarterback thoughts before we get out of here?
52:18No, I think I'm good. All right, JJ, really appreciate the time.
52:21Tell the people where they can find you and where they can find your work.
52:26Yes, on Twitter, at LateRoundQB. All the work and all the stuff we're doing.
52:30Draft Guide coming out soon over on LateRound.com. Yes, our great friends at LateRound.com.
52:34You can, of course, find me at Adam Levitan on Twitter.
52:37And Silva has promised to people. I'm putting it out there, Silva.
52:41He's promised to people he might tweet again this year.
52:44So be sure you're following at Evan Silva on Twitter for his triumphant.
52:47Once every Tuesday. Every Tuesday. Every Tuesday. On Tuesdays.
52:50Stay tuned. Four. JJ. For Evan. Bruce or Ryan.
52:53For Bruce or Luke. I'm Adam. Good luck. Everybody.
52:55Bye. Bye.