PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Silva Top-150 Fantasy Football Rankings Release Show: His Hottest Takes For 2026 (Episode 984)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
47 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 28, 2026
Published
Thu, May 28, 2026
14
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownTerry McLaurinBucky IrvingChris OlaveColston LovelandDe'Von AchaneJosh DownsKeaton MitchellKyle PittsKyren WilliamsMatthew GoldenRico Dowdle
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole0:42
AJ Brown is projected to be a New England Patriot, but concerns about his age and potential decline in performance are noted.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:45
Evan Silva ranks AJ Brown at 42 overall, significantly lower than the market, indicating concerns about his value this season.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeBust0:49
Bucky Irving's ADP is falling due to health concerns and competition from Kenneth Gainwell, making him a risky investment.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection0:12
Evan Silva ranks Chris Alave at 16 overall, well above the market at 32, due to his elite talent and the expected high-scoring nature of the Saints' offense.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout0:14
Evan Silva ranks Colston Loveland at 26 overall, ahead of Trey McBride, believing he will thrive as Caleb Williams' top target in a stable offensive situation.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue0:46
Evan Silva ranks Devon Achan at 29 overall, significantly lower than his ADP of 14, due to concerns about his workload under a new coaching staff and the potential impact of Malik Willis at quarterback.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveBreakout0:12
Josh Downs is positioned to potentially lead the Colts in receiving categories this season, especially with Michael Pittman gone.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveBreakout0:56
Evan Silva is significantly higher on Keaton Mitchell, believing that Mike McDaniel will find ways to utilize him effectively in the offense.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveBreakout0:19
Kyle Pitts is expected to have a significant target share this season, especially with limited competition in the Falcons' receiving corps.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeBust0:35
Kyron Williams is ranked lower than market due to concerns about offensive regression for the Rams and competition from Blake Corum for touches.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveBreakout0:28
Matthew Golden is expected to have a near every down role in the Packers' streamlined receiving corps, making him a player to watch this season.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
NegativeBust0:05
Rico Dowdle is viewed as a lower-tier option in the Steelers' backfield, with concerns about his role compared to Jalen Warren.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeRole0:22
Terry McLaurin is considered a fade for 2025 due to uncertainty around the Commanders potentially adding another wide receiver, which could impact his target share.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:43
Evan Silva ranks Terry McLaurin at 34 overall, higher than the market, due to the new offensive coordinator's plans to utilize him more effectively.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 984 of the official Establish The Run podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, as always joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva.
0:12And it is time for one of the highlights of the offseason, Silva Top-150 Rankings Release Show.
0:17Evan, a glorious day indeed. How's it going? It's going great.
0:21I'm excited. I'm excited to debate these rankings. I want to be clear, this is a rough draft and things will move
0:28all over the place as we move forward through the offseason.
0:32Things will be a little bit stagnant for a while.
0:35I mean, obviously we're monitoring this Josh Jacobs situation.
0:38But once we get into early training camp, players will show up with injuries that weren't unknown.
0:44You know, we will, coaches will talk, players will start practicing.
0:48A lot of things will change in July and August, but things will be a little bit stagnant here for the next month and a half or so.
0:57Indeed. On today's show, we are going to discuss 17 of Evan's hottest takes from his first Top-150 rankings of the 2026
1:04fantasy football season, AKA the places he is furthest off from market right now.
1:09In order to access Silva's Top-150 from now until week one, you do need DraftKit Pro access.
1:15That is $54.99. Head to establishtherun.com for details on everything that is inside DraftKit Pro.
1:20All right. Let's get into it here, Evan. Oh, before we get into it, I do want to be clear.
1:26Evan's 150 is aimed at season-long fantasy, half PPR format.
1:30That is decently different than best ball. I'll be keeping that in mind as we talk through this, but I'm more interested
1:37in Evan's player takes than I am any draft strategy or best ball versus season takes, etc.
1:43All right. 17 players, Evan disagrees with the market on.
1:46Start with number one, Devon Achan. Silva at 29 overall in his first Top-150.
1:51ADP right now is around 14. This one is going to raise some eyebrows, Evan, as Devon Achan is the prototypical fantasy back.
1:58Huge play ability, touchdown scoring ability, pass catching ability.
2:01Team obviously outlook is what's going to scare a lot of people why his ADP is 14 right now, but you are way lower down here at 29.
2:11Go ahead on Mr. Achan. Yeah, a lot of reasons for this.
2:15And I think that at the end of the day, I'm probably not going to end up winding up with Devon Achan this low.
2:23I don't think I need to be this low on him at the end of the day to be sort of out
2:30on Devon Achan this year, but I'm going to be out on Devon Achan this year.
2:35And that is because the complexion, first of all, it takes a special kind of a coach to commit the kind of
2:43workloads that Devon Achan has had for the past several seasons under Mike McDaniel.
2:47I'm not sure there's another coach in the NFL that would be willing to give Devon Achan at 188 pounds those kind
2:55of workloads that he was giving to him. Also, the offense was so geared up for Devon Achan to succeed with the
3:02short passing and getting the ball into the playmaker's hands.
3:05Now we're going from a short, high-percentage passer to Malik Willis, who's always been a downfield passer and is a runner, and
3:13on third down in passing situations will take off and run as opposed to dumping it down to Devon Achan.
3:19I would be worried that Devon Achan's receptions could almost get cut in half with Malik Willis at quarterback.
3:25And I'm not sure that this new coaching staff will be willing to commit those workloads to him.
3:31He's 188 pounds. He's also coming off a shoulder surgery.
3:35And Devon Achan has run really hot in terms of health, especially for a sub-190-pound running back over the past two seasons.
3:42He's only missed one game. So I think that there could be some injury regression.
3:47And I just don't think that the offense is going to be geared up for him to succeed, get the ball in
3:54his hands in high-percentage ways the same way that it was under Mike McDaniel.
3:59I also have major concerns around Devon Achan this year.
4:02I would not have him 29 overall because there are very few players in the NFL who can run for an 80-yard
4:10touchdown and catch 90 balls in a season, right?
4:13And also carry the ball 200-plus times. Not many of those guys exist.
4:17However, the setup is really scary. I mean, Dolphins' win total is 4.5.
4:21It's pretty likely they're going to win three, four, five, six games at best, something like that.
4:27You could argue they have the worst roster in the entire NFL.
4:31Perhaps just as concerning to me, you go from Mike McDaniel, like Evan alluded to, I don't really trust Jeff Halfley, Bobby Sloick.
4:39And we'll get to some of the Chargers stuff here in a minute.
4:43But going from McDaniel to those guys scares me.
4:46And then the biggest one that Evan brought up, we've looked at this.
4:50It is not just a narrative. It is true that Russian quarterbacks throw at their running backs less frequently.
4:57And so we don't know what Malik Willis looks like playing from behind.
5:01We've seen a lot of him playing from ahead.
5:04We've seen a lot of him running the football.
5:07We have not seen a lot of him just, hey, we're down 28-3.
5:11Let's drop back 30 times in the second half.
5:14I don't know how that runs out for Devon Achan.
5:18So the 78 balls he caught in 2024, 67 in 2025, I agree with Evan.
5:23It's hard to see that. So I've also been shying away from Achan.
5:27I like being lower than market here as well.
5:30Let's get to number two on the list. Mentioned Mike McDaniel.
5:34Silva is at 27 overall on Ladd McConkie. ADP is 41.
5:37In conjunction with that, so Silva's real high on Ladd McConkie here.
5:41In conjunction with that, Silva is also 40 spots behind current market on Quinton Johnston.
5:46So high Ladd, low QJ here, Evan. Go ahead with your thoughts on this one.
5:51Well, last year the Chargers essentially played four receivers.
5:54And I think that they're going to narrow that down.
5:58Use more multiple tight end sets. This year they signed David Njoku.
6:02Ronde Gadston is coming back. And I think that Ladd McConkie is going to be one of the receivers that's on the
6:09field in those two receiver sets all day long.
6:12And that's really good news. Ladd McConkie is a Mike McDaniel type of receiver.
6:17He ran sub 4-4 coming out of college. He is a player that you want to get the ball in his hands
6:24and let him make plays with the ball in his hands.
6:28And he's got quarterback stability. One of the better quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert.
6:33I think this is an easy one. I want Ladd McConkie.
6:37I believe in Ladd McConkie, first of all, as a player.
6:40And I want him on the vast majority of my teams this year.
6:45Especially if his ADP is going to be as reasonable as it is right now.
6:50I think he's a steal. Yeah. So I talked about Ladd a few weeks ago on Market Monday.
6:56And I like him. I definitely like him at this ADP of 41.
7:00My concern with like a truly massive season. And I've heard people say, oh, he's going to go full Jack Smith and Jigba.
7:08The Seahawks didn't throw to anyone else. Last year, if I'm being honest, Quinton Johnston outplayed Ladd McConkie for a lot of the year.
7:16As Evan mentioned, they have Trey Harris. They have Gadsden.
7:19They have Njoku. They drafted Brendan Thompson. I even saw they didn't rule out Keenan Allen reunion, which I don't think is going to happen.
7:27But they at least have not ruled it out yet.
7:31So I think there's just like more mouths to feed here.
7:34And then we'll get to the running backs here in a second.
7:38There's plenty of mouths to feed there, too. So it's hard from like a projection standpoint to get to 27 overall on
7:46Ladd when there's so many other guys. I mentioned, Evan, you are 40 spots below market on QJ.
7:52Sounds like you're just totally out on him. Thoughts on Quinton Johnston?
7:56Just don't see him as a Mike McDaniel type of receiver.
7:59I mean, that's really what it comes down to.
8:02And I think that Mike McDaniel, like Ladd McConkie is, Quinton Johnston isn't.
8:07And that's sort of my diagnosis. We'll see if that changes at any point.
8:11But I don't anticipate it. I think that this is the Ladd McConkie blow up year in his third season with the coaching staff change.
8:20Yeah. And the biggest thing for me on Ladd is what we've been talking about.
8:25I did not think that Keenan Allen would affect Ladd McConkie last year as much as he did.
8:31And Keenan Allen was just the security blanket for Justin Herbert so often.
8:35Hopefully, and I think this year, I agree with Evan, it'll be Ladd.
8:39All right. Let's stick with the Chargers for number three.
8:43Amarian Hampton, Silva 38 overall. ADP is 16. And I did want to mention with this also, Silva, your 50 spots, 5-0
8:50spots higher than market on Keaton Mitchell right now.
8:53So low Amarian Hampton, high Keaton Mitchell. Evan, go ahead on Chargers' backfield.
8:57It's more just I think that Mike McDaniel is going to fall in love with Keaton Mitchell.
9:03And again, we go back to the Devon Achan thing.
9:06There are not many coaches in the NFL, I think, that would commit that kind of workload to Devon Achan.
9:13Keaton Mitchell is not like Devon Achan. But Mike McDaniel is that kind of outside-the-box thinker that would look at Keaton Mitchell
9:20and be like, we've got to get this guy the ball.
9:24I also don't know how good Amarian Hampton is.
9:27He showed a little bit of positive and a lot of negative as a rookie.
9:32You know, technically the offensive staff that drafted him is gone.
9:36They gave Keaton Mitchell some money. And Jim Harbaugh also fell in love with Kamani Vidal.
9:41So I'm worried regarding Amarian Hampton, him at very best being in a three-way committee where Keaton Mitchell is an oft-used change
9:48of pace back and Kamani Vidal comes in on passing downs.
9:52And in that scenario, Amarian Hampton is not going to smash.
9:56I was looking at his Fantasy Pros ADP as like RB9 overall.
10:00And I was shocked to see that. I'm definitely out on Amarian Hampton at that price.
10:05And I'm going to be higher than marking on Keaton Mitchell.
10:08Yeah, I mean, Amarian Hampton has been going 16 overall in best ball.
10:13And we are lower than that in the ETR ranks as well.
10:17We are not as low as Evan. And it's interesting, Mike McDaniel had Raheem Mostert and Devon Achan in 2023.
10:23And both kind of went off. Now, I think this is a little different as Amarian Hampton is, I think, way better and more well-rounded than Mostert was.
10:33But you could certainly draw some comparisons to Keaton Mitchell's explosive ability, unlimited touches in 2023, and what we think Keaton Mitchell is going to do.
10:41The part that Evan brought up that I'm not sure I agree with is the Kamani Vidal stuff.
10:47My thought was, if Amarian Hampton is actually a round one pick, actually good.
10:52Vidal can be the direct backup. But I was thinking of it more of like a Tank Bigsby or like a Sean
10:59Tucker, you know, like one of those roles for Vidal, not really someone that plays that much.
11:05So maybe it'll work out differently. But I just don't think Vidal is like an actual threat.
11:11If Amarian Hampton's an actual round one talent, you know what I mean?
11:15I think that Kamani Vidal could be a threat in that the Chargers think that he might be the best pass-protecting running back that they have.
11:24And he winds up siphoning, you know, 25 to 35 percent of the snaps and just, you know, pulling playing time away
11:31from Amarian Hampton while Keaton Mitchell is also pulling playing time away from Amarian Hampton.
11:36That's my fear. Yeah. Last thing I'll say on Amarian Hampton, I agree he was up and down last year as a player.
11:44It's really hard to evaluate running backs in general, especially on a small sample.
11:48But he did catch 32 balls in nine games played last year.
11:52I thought that was encouraging for Amarian Hampton as a rookie to get almost four catches per game there.
11:59And he was limited in some of those. He has, I think, you know, obviously a way, way, way better pass-catching ceiling
12:06than Moistar did if we're comparing that to the Miami McDaniel stuff.
12:10All right. Number four on the list, Chris Alave.
12:13Silva is at 16 overall against a market of 32.
12:16He's also 13 spots high on Jordan Tyson. I know we've talked about this plenty already, Evan, about the Saints' offensive outlook this year.
12:24But people are going to say, my God, Evan, 16 overall on Chris Alave is very, very high.
12:30Go ahead on Mr. Alave. I mean, I'm not even worried about it.
12:35I mean, I'm fully buying in on the Saints' offense.
12:38Playing indoors. I believe in Tyler Shuck. I believe in Kellen Moore.
12:42Chris Alave last year showed that he is an elite wide receiver one.
12:46And, you know, almost everybody that we talked to before the draft thought that Jordan Tyson was the best receiver in the draft.
12:54I mean, it's just, and I also don't think that the Saints are really going to have, they're going to be able to stop anybody.
13:02So this is going to be a shootout offense.
13:05I just want to buy virtually every player in the offense.
13:09And that trickles down to Travis Etienne. I did talk to Nick Underhill.
13:13He thinks that it's going to be more of a wide receiver-centric offense this year, featuring Alave and Jordan Tyson and maybe less Juwan Johnson.
13:22But yeah, Tyler Shuck, you know, Travis Etienne, the two wideouts.
13:25Like, I want all those guys. And I'm going to be really aggressive drafting them this year.
13:31Yeah. I mean, I love the Saints this year.
13:34You know, I've bet a bunch of Saints futures a couple months ago or a month ago or whatever it was.
13:41Improved offensive line. Kellen Moore plays fast. 10 dome games.
13:44Shaky defense. They have a great fantasy playoff schedule.
13:47Like, I love being high Chris Alave. My pushback would be Silva has him ahead of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Drake London.
13:55I think, though, I would prefer those guys right now.
13:58But I don't disagree that Chris Alave is an awesome pick at an ADP of 32 overall here right now.
14:05All right. Let's get to one of the hottest takes Evan has here for 2026 early going.
14:10Number five is Colston Loveland. Silva, 26 overall on Colston Loveland.
14:14Market is closer to 47 overall. And that is ahead of Trey McBride.
14:18And that's the one that is going to get people's panties all in a bunch, Evan.
14:24Colston Loveland ahead of Trey McBride. Go ahead on the top of tight end here this year.
14:29Well, I think that when this season wraps up, the 2026 season wraps up, I think that it's very much within the
14:37range of potential outcomes that we look back and we say that Caleb Williams is the best quarterback in the NFL or
14:44a top five quarterback in the NFL. I mean, I think that that's where his trajectory is headed.
14:50You know, he won the Heisman Trophy. He was the number one pick in the draft.
14:55He took a huge step forward last year. And this is the second year of Ben Johnson.
15:01And who is Caleb Williams' best pass catcher? I think that it is not even close.
15:06And it's Colston Loveland. And so if Caleb Williams has that kind of year that I think is definitely within his range
15:14of potential outcomes, he's going to carry some dudes with him.
15:17And Colston Loveland will be at the top of that pecking order.
15:21Whereas with Trey McBride, you got all kinds of quarterback question marks.
15:25I mean, I think that by, you know, first of all, Jacoby Brissett is already like threatening a holdout.
15:32Carson Beck, I mean, I don't believe in him whatsoever.
15:35I think that he could be starting by week five.
15:38You have an offense that's changing. Whereas you have offensive stability in Chicago, you have an offense that's changing.
15:45We don't know that Mike LaFleur is going to let his quarterback and Nathaniel Hackett, by the way, Nathaniel Hackett, okay, is
15:52going to let his quarterback drop back to pass 50 times a game like they were doing with Jacoby Brissett last year.
15:59I mean, that's just, they're not going to want to do that.
16:03And certainly not with Carson Beck as a rookie.
16:06So it's just the situation is so much better.
16:09I also think that Colston Loveland is a better talent than Trey McBride.
16:14But the situation is so much more bankable for Colston Loveland than it is for Trey McBride.
16:19I mean, I have, what, six spots of top 150 separation between these two.
16:24I mean, I think it maybe should be more.
16:27Yeah. I mean, people are going to push back and say the sample size on Loveland wasn't that big.
16:33And they're also going to say it's a lot of mouths to feed.
16:38I love Loveland, but Burden Silva has a 39 overall.
16:41Dunesday Silva has a 54 overall. DeAndre Swift Silva has at 47 overall.
16:45You're asking a lot out of Caleb Williams. It sounds like Evan expects Caleb to fulfill that.
16:51But yeah, my only concern is like you're asking a lot.
16:54And Cole Komet is still there, by the way.
16:57Not that I think that's a huge factor, but he is still there for the Bears.
17:03So yeah, it's just a smaller sample. You know, McBride has been incredible for two straight seasons.
17:08I agree with Evan though. Like there's definitely concerns around McBride this year.
17:13It's really interesting, the top of tight end. And if you go back and listen to some of the elite, the strategies,
17:20best ball show that we did, we talked about the top of tight end this year for sure.
17:26All right. Number six, Brees Hall, Silva, 19 overall.
17:29Market is closer to 29 or 30 overall. I just kind of think people don't want to see Brees Hall at 19
17:36overall because they don't want to click a jet, period.
17:40Like that's the line of thinking. I can't take a jet at 19 overall.
17:44So thoughts on that, Evan, and go ahead on Brees Hall.
17:48So I want to be real clear that I do not think that the Jets are going to be good this year, okay?
17:56But I do think that they could be a little bit better than people are willing to give them credit for.
18:03Understandably, why people would not want to give them any credit for maybe being competitive this year.
18:08They have a really good offensive line. You know, could they get – I mean, it's a lot better situation really that
18:16Geno Smith has than he had with the Raiders last year.
18:19Geno Smith was a decent starting quarterback for the several seasons before he landed with the Raiders last year.
18:26And I think that that would really help Brees Hall if the Jets are just a competitive team that maybe goes –
18:33wins six or seven games this year. Brees Hall is a true three-down running back.
18:38And he's a guy that people don't want to draft because of the team that he plays on.
18:44But I think that we all know that he's, like, really good.
18:48And he's really good in multiple phases of the game.
18:51And all we really need is for the Jets to be fairly competitive.
18:56And I think that in that scenario, Brees Hall is going to smash behind this offensive line.
19:01So, I don't know. I like this. I'm going to be drafting a lot of Brees Hall this year.
19:08I feel pretty confident in this one. Definitely being above ADP on him.
19:12Yeah, I mean, the Jets' win total is 5.5, right?
19:15And it, like, scares me with running backs on teams that aren't expected to score a lot of touchdowns.
19:22Jets were 29th in touchdowns last year. The offensive coordinator is Frank Reich, who I do not have a lot of faith in.
19:29I do not think Aaron Glenn is, like, the type of head coach I want to invest in.
19:35The Geno stuff, I agree, is, like, the biggest thing that happens here.
19:40If you think Geno can play like he did for some of those seasons where he was fine in 2023, 2024, that's really great for Brees Hall.
19:49And by the way, Brees Hall is an awesome talent.
19:52I always thought Brees Hall, as, like, a pass catcher and runner, was among the best in the league.
19:58Jets obviously agreed, as they gave him the bag.
20:01So, I like it, as long as Geno is, like, stable.
20:05Just, like, be stable. And I think there's some risk there that the quarterback play won't be stable enough and Brees will go down with him.
20:14There absolutely is. There absolutely is risk. He plays on the Jets.
20:18You know, absolutely. Braylon Allen will be back. But, man, I have, like, high hopes for Braylon Allen.
20:24He's still super young, but I don't really view him as a threat.
20:28You know, whereas in the past, I had thought maybe Braylon can steal short yardage.
20:33Braylon can steal, you know, eight, nine carries a game.
20:36I'm not sure the Jets see it that way anymore.
20:40Number seven, Terry McLaurin. Silva is at 34 overall.
20:43Market is closer to 50 overall. We will be getting a new offensive coordinator here for Terry McLaurin.
20:49And we also will be getting Jaden Daniels back healthy this year.
20:53Evan, go ahead on being high Terry McLaurin. Yeah.
20:56And I like what we've heard from David bling-blang-blau, the commander's new OC.
21:00He's going to move Terry McLaurin around. I mean, it's kind of ridiculous to think back.
21:05Cliff Kingsbury would not move Terry McLaurin around. And he still had that monster season in 2024, even with, you know, Quinjon
21:13Mitchell's able to track his every move because he doesn't move around.
21:17And then you look at the target competition. Like, it's almost nonexistent.
21:21I'm actually higher than Market on Chigakonkwo for similar reasons, you know, lower down the 150.
21:26I think I have Okonkwo in, like, the early 130s or something like that.
21:31Silva 128 on Okonkwo. And Market's closer to, like, 150, 155.
21:34Yeah. But, I mean, I think that this can be a huge year, another huge year for Terry McLaurin.
21:41We saw what happened the last time that Jaden Daniels was healthy.
21:45Jaden Daniels is a guy who can elevate the talent around him.
21:49I guess it's kind of easy to forget because he was hurt, like, for almost all of last season.
21:55But we saw what he did in 2024. He's back now in a better offensive system.
22:00He's going to cook. And Terry McLaurin's going to cook right along with him.
22:05Yeah. I didn't obviously like the way Cliff used McLaurin.
22:08In 2024, he has this outrageous touchdown rate. And I thought McLaurin was a pretty easy fade in 2025.
22:15It was hard to see because Jaden Daniels was hurt for a lot of games.
22:20And it only played in seven of them. I think the reason the rankings are in the markets having a hard time
22:27with both McLaurin and Chigak is because the Commanders are the most likely team to add a wide receiver at some point.
22:34I don't know who it's going to be. Iuke, Diggs.
22:38Diggs. It's at least, you know, bullish that he's thinking like that.
22:42All right. Let's go to number eight. AJ Brown.
22:45Silva is far lower than markets. Silva 42 overall on AJ Brown.
22:49Markets closer to 26 overall. This is widely assumed and Schefter reiterated this week post June 1, which by the way is coming up very soon.
22:57AJ Brown will be a Patriot. So I assume that you are assuming that in your rank here.
23:03Evan, go ahead on AJ Brown as a Patriot.
23:06I am assuming that AJ Brown will be a New England Patriot, but I feel like there have been some other teams
23:14that have sort of been thrown around as potentially being in the mix to acquire him as well.
23:20So we don't have 100% certainty yet on where AJ Brown is going to be playing.
23:25Um, he's also like, he's getting a little bit older, you know, and, and big receivers don't tend to age gracefully all the time.
23:33He will be 29 years old when the season begins.
23:36And I think you can make an argument that he's shown some signs of decline on the field.
23:42Now, I think that the situation will be a pretty big upgrade.
23:46If he does go to new England, going from Jalen hurts to Drake may.
23:51Um, the Patriots did sign Romeo Dobbs, who's, you know, a solid number two receiver.
23:56I think AJ Brown theoretically should be the alpha, but he's getting older and he's shown some of the signs of decline
24:03and we don't have absolute certainty on where he's going to be playing.
24:07And I think that that's probably what is contributing here to me being lower than on, on AJ Brown than his ADP.
24:15It's so hard in these situations to separate, is he getting worse or was he just tilted and the offense wasn't for him?
24:22It's so hard to tell. It seemed like on some plays to me, he just quit.
24:28He was like, they're not throwing the ball to me anyways.
24:31Well, what's the point? You know? And he had some bad games.
24:35I agree with you. It's just hard to tell if it's because he wanted to whine at Petulo and the rest of
24:43the coaches, or, you know, if he didn't like Jalen hurts or whatever.
24:47So the reason he's leaving Philly is because of volume.
24:50Right? So I expect the Patriots to be like, yeah, man, we'll give you the volume.
24:56We have Romeo Dobbs, Kayshawn Booty, Mac Hollins, Kai Williams, Hunter Henry.
25:00I mean, we have plenty of volume to give you.
25:03Steph Diggs, and Steph Diggs isn't even in the NFL right now.
25:07He caught 85 balls last season for the Patriots.
25:10So I'd be higher than Evan here on AJ Brown.
25:13I think they have to like promise him, you're going to be the alpha.
25:18We're going to feed you the ball. Even if he's declining a little, I think the volume is going to be there for AJ Brown.
25:26When it becomes official that he goes to the Patriots, I'll probably move him up.
25:31Okay. Number nine on the list here is Kyron Williams.
25:35This is one we've had such a hard time with in the ETR ranks.
25:39I can explain why in a minute. But Silva, 49 overall on Kyron.
25:44Markets closer to 33, 34 overall. So decently lower than market here on Kyron.
25:48Evan, go ahead on this one. Well, the Rams ran really, really, really hot offensively last season.
25:54And they really did nothing to upgrade their offense.
25:57They had the 13th overall pick and they drafted a backup quarterback with that pick.
26:02You know, and I also think that you can make a really good case that Blake Corum is just as good as Kyron Williams as a runner.
26:11And I think you can make a really good case that Blake Corum deserves like a 50-50 split with Kyron Williams.
26:18So if we see some overall offensive regression from the Rams and Blake Corum starts to really – and Blake Corum was eating into his stuff last year.
26:27Oh, yeah. If Blake Corum starts to eat even more into Kyron Williams, you know, that's sort of the theory that I'm going with here.
26:36That is that the Rams are going to take a step back offensively and that Corum is going to get more of Kyron Williams' workload.
26:44It's so hard. You know, every year it feels like we're a little bit behind ADP on Kyron.
26:50And it's because he's not an explosive runner. He's not a volume pass catcher.
26:55But he beats ADP seemingly every year because he scores so many touchdowns.
26:5915 touchdowns, 16 touchdowns, 13 touchdowns the last three seasons.
27:02And the Rams are expected to score a ton of touchdowns again.
27:06They have one of the highest implied team totals in the NFL.
27:10So these guys who rely on touchdowns so much are really, really hard, I think, to rank and to do projections for.
27:18I'm uncomfortable. Like our ETR rank, we've talked about this a million times.
27:22I'm uncomfortable with it for the reasons that Evan said.
27:25Blake Corum could be better. And the offense stands to regress, especially Matthew Stafford's touchdown rate, which, you know, doesn't really flow through to Kyron.
27:34But yeah, I don't know. It's just really, really hard on Kyron.
27:38It's really, really hard. If he scores 15, 16, 13 touchdowns again, he's going to smash this ADP.
27:44If he doesn't, he's not. And I hate to make it as simple as that, but I really think that's it because
27:51he's not going to break 50-yard touchdowns. He's not going to catch 50 balls.
27:56That's just, it's not going to happen. He's got to score touchdowns.
28:00He's got to score touchdowns. Number 10. Cam Scadaboo.
28:03Evans below market here. Silva 57 overall ADP on Cam Scadaboo.
28:06Around 44 overall. You'll remember he had that really gruesome injury in October of last year.
28:12Dislocated right ankle. Fractured his fibula. Broke his fibula.
28:15Ruptured ligaments. It's, I don't know what Evan thinks, but I'm not counting it as like a lock that Cam Scadaboo is
28:22going to be out there in week one. Evan, what do you think about Scadaboo and being behind market there?
28:29So he's a player who dislocated his ankle, fractured his fibula, and tore his deltoid ligament halfway through last season.
28:35He has a fourth round ADP. I'm out on that.
28:39I actually also have Tyrone Tracy a little bit above ADP, and I think that if I was going to choose between
28:46the two based on cost, I think I would take my chances with Tyrone Tracy.
28:51Now, the Giants added like nothing at running back this offseason.
28:55Yeah, they added nothing at running back this offseason.
28:58So does that mean that they are sold on Cam Scadaboo coming back from this injury?
29:03Maybe it does. I don't know, but I'm not going to take a running back coming off that injury with a limited track record.
29:11You talk about sample size, you know, in a new offense coming off of that injury.
29:16Like I'm not taking him in the fourth round.
29:19Like there's no chance. So the bull case on Scadaboo is that his game translates really well to fantasy.
29:26He only played eight games last year. He scored seven touchdowns.
29:29Like he is a touchdown scorer around the goal line.
29:33Again, he only played eight games. He caught 24 passes.
29:36So catching passes, scoring touchdowns. That's what wins fantasy games and how you score fantasy points at the running back position.
29:43To me, like the biggest thing is just the health stuff.
29:47You know, it's just it's just really hard. And I agree with that.
29:51We're below market in the ETR ranks here also on Scadaboo just on.
29:55I'm not sure he's gonna be ready for week one, you know, and we'll see.
30:00And yeah, I think Tyrone Tracy is an NFL player.
30:04Like maybe not a star or anything close, but he's an NFL player.
30:08Unlike some of these teams backups where I'm not even sure that their backup running back is an NFL player.
30:15All right. Here's the one I disagree with on Silva the most.
30:19I can't with this. I'm sorry, Evan. I can't.
30:22Kyle Pitts. Silva's at 61 overall. Market is around 104 overall.
30:25I got to hear this, Evan. Kyle Pitts, 61 overall.
30:28Go ahead. I mean, you know, it's him and Drake London at, you know, and B.
30:34John Robinson, of course. But in terms of the pass catcher core, it's just him and Drake London.
30:40There's like nobody else. I mean, we're talking about like Zachariah Branch maybe is like a deep sleeper this year.
30:46That's how thin the Falcons are in the pass catcher core.
30:50Kyle Pitts like was pretty good last year. And I mean, I think that he's rounding into shape physically after really that
30:57knee injury bothering him for several seasons. He's still really young.
31:01He's 25 years old. He had 118 targets last year and 88 catches.
31:05So are we just going to let that hangover from him struggling through injury for multiple seasons?
31:11Are we going to let that really influence the way that we look at him now when he's healthy, when he's got
31:18access to a monster target share and he's coming off 120 target season and 90 catch season?
31:24I'm going to be drafting Kyle Pitts this year.
31:27God. This is by the way, and the knee thing I think is a valid point.
31:32And this is the same argument. And we don't we're not going to talk about Don Kincaid today, but we will talk about Don Kincaid.
31:41This is the same argument that you could have for Don Kincaid.
31:45My biggest pushback on Kyle Pitts is last season.
31:48Almost all of his good games came with Drake London were out and targets per route run with Drake London on the field last season for Kyle Pitts.
31:5718%, you know, solid, not spectacular. When Drake London was off the field, Kyle Pitts targets per route run 33%, just absolutely elite.
32:05And so when he was really going off, when he absolutely buried me in week 15 last year and like I was
32:12legit depressed for like 48 to 72 hours after he buried me in week 15.
32:17Oh, yeah. That came without Drake London on the field here also.
32:21So to me, Drake London is the alpha. Drake London has been an incredible, incredible target earner through his career.
32:28Can the Falcons support Drake London plus Kyle Pitts?
32:31I'm a little bit more skeptical. I like where we're at.
32:34And we're ahead of market, by the way, in the ETR ranks on Kyle Pitts, like slightly.
32:40I think we have in the 90s against an ADP of around 100.
32:44But yeah, 61 overall is going to be tough for me to get to here on Kyle Pitts.
32:50He isn't up. They did franchise tag him. I mean, he has a lot of motivation to play well this year.
32:57Like, again, a lot, lot, lot of motivation. Number 12, Josh Downs, Silva at 68 overall.
33:03Markets closer to 99 overall. I talked about this one on Market Monday.
33:07Hopefully you guys caught Market Monday this week. So you get my full thoughts on Josh Downs there.
33:13But Evan, go ahead on being so high on Josh Downs.
33:17I think that Josh Downs can be the Colts' number one receiver this season.
33:21Michael Pittman is gone. Alec Pierce has been largely a one-trick pony in the NFL and is also coming off an ankle
33:29surgery that was sort of a surprise. I think Josh Downs is good.
33:33I think he's going to jump into two receiver sets this year and he's going to play every down.
33:39And I think he can lead the Colts in every receiving category.
33:43You know, even besting Tyler Warren. I think that this is set up to be Josh Downs' breakout season.
33:50Yeah. So, you know, I mentioned all those things on Market Monday.
33:54My concern is that at 5'9", 171, are the Colts actually going to play him into receiver sets?
34:00Because otherwise you're looking at like a Jaden Reed situation where the upside is kind of capped.
34:05And they have Nick Westbrook-Akine who coaches seem to like to play.
34:09And he can play opposite Alec Pierce. So, yeah, do you have any concerns about size here?
34:15Do the Colts think he can actually play every down at 5'9", 171?
34:19I mean, that's a fair concern. Yeah. Yeah. And one part that I agree with Evan about, I'm skeptical that Alec Pierce
34:27can suddenly become some like run all the routes, win on in-breaking routes.
34:31Like that's not what he's done in his career.
34:34Maybe he can. That's not what he's done. So, I agree with Evan there that like there's room for a lot of
34:41Colts to earn targets if they're good and on the field for sure.
34:46All right. Number 13, Bucky Irving. Still was at 74 overall.
34:49ADP has been sliding. I mean, Bucky started around in the 30s, low 30s ADP.
34:54Now it's out to 45 overall. Silva's down at 74 on Bucky Irving.
34:59He's also 20 spots higher than market on Kenny Gainwell.
35:02Evan, go ahead on Buck's backfield this year. Yeah.
35:05So, I mean, I think that that's fairly self-explanatory.
35:08I'm betting on Kenneth Gainwell and betting against Bucky Irving.
35:11The vibes just are not good on Bucky Irving whatsoever.
35:15Big fall off in his second season. Coming off shoulder surgery.
35:18Don't trust his health really whatsoever at this point.
35:21And they gave legit money to Kenneth Gainwell. Two years, 14 million.
35:25Almost 10 million guaranteed. Sean Tucker coming back as well to potentially vulture goal line stuff.
35:31I don't really want any part of Bucky Irving at this point.
35:35Yeah, I mean, they're going to play three running backs.
35:38And maybe Sean, I always think Sean Tucker is going to play more than he actually does.
35:44But I do think they'll use him around the goal line.
35:47This year, particularly if Bucky's shoulder thing continues to kind of plague him.
35:52So we've tried to stay lower than market on Bucky.
35:55The thing is, the market's giving up on him.
35:58Like, I could see Bucky's ADP slipping into the 50s here.
36:02And at that, I just don't want to forget about the upside case.
36:06I agree with Evan. The most likely outcome for Bucky is a downside case.
36:11But there are some ceiling outcomes still here for Bucky as just a guy that is really good and can catch the football.
36:18But yeah, I mean, I like being low on him at this current ADP in the 40s for sure.
36:25All right. Number 14 on the list is Matthew Golden.
36:28Silva is at 88 overall. ADP is closer to 108 overall.
36:32This is an interesting one, Evan, because you were out and you were correctly out on Matthew Golden last year.
36:38This year, you're in on Matthew Golden. Go ahead on him.
36:42Well, it's just such a big move really for every Packers wide receiver that they're going to streamline the wide receiver core.
36:49This year. It's going to be Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jaden Reed.
36:54And in previous years, the Packers would play as many as five receivers on game day in a big rotation.
37:00And I mean, it made sense, I think, to some extent to try to help keep the guys healthy and involved and everything.
37:08But Matt LaFleur talked about it and he thinks that there are more benefits at this point to streamlining it, to build
37:15chemistry with Jordan Love and to get the guys into a rhythm.
37:19And, you know, they're not going to do that anymore.
37:22I mean, they basically said that publicly and that really helps Matthew Golden, who, you know, got trapped as a fourth receiver
37:30a lot of times in the old rotation. He was a first round pick in the draft.
37:35I don't know that he is a true first round talent, but he was drafted there and now he's going to have
37:43a near every down roll, I believe. Um, so he's a guy that I'm willing to take a chance on here at,
37:50um, uh, yeah, in the top 90. Yeah. I'm on this too.
37:54And I've already talked about this a ton this off season, like Packers stacks are some of my favorite stacks to get right now.
38:02I like all of them. You know, I like Christian Watson.
38:06I like Golden. I like Jaden Reed. I like Tucker Craft.
38:09I like Jordan Love. And the reason for that is I think they could get way more pass heavy this year.
38:16Now that is a leap of faith. That is not what they have done under Jordan Love whatsoever.
38:22And like, that's the debate that we've been having with the ETR ranks.
38:27How high can we get on Packers pass right here while still respecting the historicals on Jordan Love and LaFleur?
38:33I don't know what you think about that, Evan.
38:36I want us to get higher Packers pass rate, but it's really hard.
38:41So what do you think about that? In 2023, Jordan Love did almost have 600 pass attempts.
38:46So there's at least a little bit of history of that there.
38:50We had the Josh Jacobs situation now. You know, if they were to lose their bell cow running back, who I think,
38:58you know, and I know that you share the same sentiment, was kind of showing some signs of wear down last year anyway.
39:05That would give them more incentive to throw the ball more this season.
39:10And that would really help Matthew Golden and Christian Watson and Jaden Reed and Tucker Craft.
39:15Yeah. I mean, we'll see how it goes with the Josh Jacobs situation.
39:19If he gets suspended and they end up with a starter of like Chris Brooks or Marshawn Lloyd or James Conner or
39:27something like that, you got to throw the ball.
39:30And one of the reasons that I think we can take the leap of faith on Packers pass rate when this team
39:37has been healthy offensive line, wide receivers, Tucker Craft, we've seen the pass rate go up a little bit in very small samples.
39:45So and Matthew Golden was hurt last year, too.
39:48You know, I was critical of Matthew Golden's inability to earn targets.
39:52He was hurt. He was playing a rotation year, too.
39:55There's definitely reason for optimism here. And again, I like all three Packers wide receivers where they go right now.
40:02Number 15, a few more to get to here.
40:05Rico Dowdle Silva is lower than market. Silva 106 overall on Dowdle markets closer to 88 overall.
40:10Of course, this is a whole new situation. Mike McCarthy's coaching the Steelers.
40:15This will be Rico Dowdle's third team in three seasons.
40:18Go ahead on Steelers backfield, Evan. I like Jalen Warren this year and I don't like Rico Dowdle and that history with Aaron Rogers that Jalen Warren has.
40:27We know how important trust is to veteran quarterbacks like Aaron Rogers.
40:31And I just think that Aaron Rogers is going to want Jalen Warren on the field with him.
40:37And he's, you know, a lot more than Rico Dowdle.
40:41Rico Dowdle is an OK, like early down grinder.
40:44But I think that that's all he is. Jalen Warren can play in all scenarios, catch a lot of passes.
40:50We saw how many Jalen Warren actually had a good season as a receiver last year was obviously overshadowed by what Kenneth Gainwell did.
40:58But Kenneth Gainwell is leaving behind an awful lot of running back receptions.
41:03This could be a really big receiving year for Jalen Warren.
41:06Yeah, I mean, Aaron Rogers is good for fantasy running backs, you know, typically my pushback on this.
41:12And I've kind of had these guys closer or really close together to me because Mike McCarthy has shown a willingness to
41:20give Rico Dowdle big workloads, 235 carries in 2024.
41:23Then in 2025, Rico goes to Carolina for like peanuts.
41:26He steals the job from Chuba Hubbard who got paid.
41:29He gets 236 carries with Carolina. And by the way, he's caught 78 balls over the last two seasons.
41:36So my thought was like coaches don't mind or want to give big workloads to Rico Dowdle.
41:41I'm like begging them to give workloads to Jalen Warren to give big workloads to Jalen Warren.
41:47I know Jalen Warren had 211 carries last year.
41:50That was with Arthur Smith kind of boomer boomer it up a bit.
41:54So I think the guy who is like more likely for volume, in my opinion, is Rico Dowdle.
42:00Obviously, I think the better player, more explosive player is Jalen Warren.
42:04So I've had a hard time with this one.
42:07I kind of have them like back to back in my thought.
42:11So yeah, number 16 here, small one, but I thought it was interesting.
42:16Ryan Flournoy still was at 121 overall. ADP is back in that kind of flyer range at 177 overall.
42:22Ryan Flournoy was at 2024 round six pick. Did have some big games last year when CeeDee Lamb was out and missing time.
42:30Evan, go ahead on Ryan Flournoy sticking out to you as a wide receiver flyer.
42:35Yeah, I think that Ryan Flournoy is like kind of like legit kind of good.
42:40He was an awesome athlete coming out. The Cowboys took a chance on him in the sixth round because he was a really, really good athlete.
42:48And I think that that's kind of paying dividends for them.
42:52CeeDee Lamb has had some injury issues. George Pickens, who knows?
42:56I think we saw last year that Jake Ferguson, although he had a nice year in fantasy, a jag.
43:02The Cowboys are going to throw the ball a lot again.
43:06That's what you do when you have a quarterback like Dak Prescott and you have a defense that you have to compensate for.
43:13So I think that Flournoy is locked into three receiver sets this year.
43:18He had two games over 100 yards last year.
43:21And I think that, I mean, I think that he's a guy who's going to give you a little bit of a
43:28floor as like a wide receiver five or a wide receiver six on your bench.
43:33And then if George Pickens, you know, flies off the handle or CeeDee Lamb gets hurt again, Flournoy is a starter in fantasy.
43:41Yeah, I thought, you know, in the best ball stuff I've been doing, I take some Flournoy late.
43:47I don't take like overmarket on him. I just I'd mix in him, Antonio Williams, Calvin Ridley, Jalen Naylor, Jeremy Bernard.
43:53You know, I don't see like Flournoy separating from all those guys that much.
43:58But yeah, I mean, he certainly showed last year.
44:01If he catches a break, he could. I mean, right.
44:04I think he's an awesome best ball pick. He's going to give you a little bit of a floor and he has
44:12like legit upside if he catches that break we're talking about.
44:15All right. Last one to get to here today is the controversial Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt.
44:20Silva is at 131 overall, mark it around 114 overall.
44:24New look backfield for the Commanders this year. Ketron Allen, shout out Penn State, and Rashad White are joining JCM in the backfield.
44:31Evan, go ahead on Commanders backfield. Yeah, although that's like 20 spots, it's like in differential from ADP in my ranking.
44:38It's really not or like maybe 15 spots. It's really not that big.
44:43Once you start to get into like the 120 area, it's not that big of a separation.
44:48But I don't I'm not excited about Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt.
44:52I think that Rashad White will definitely end up leading Washington backfield in snaps.
44:56And I think that Ketron Allen could be just as good as Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt, if not potentially better.
45:03You know, PFF, PFF College in his final season at Penn State had Ketron Allen as the number two graded running back
45:10in the nation behind only Jeremiah Love in terms of just pure rushing.
45:14And I also think that Ketron Allen is a better receiving back than is Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt, who's really a zero in terms of receiving.
45:23So I don't I don't have any any, you know, intrigue, really.
45:27I'm not in any way, you know, trying to draft Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt this year.
45:32I mean, it's really hard for players like this to go off in fantasy one dimensional player.
45:37Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt, you know, just hand the ball to him.
45:41You got to score touchdowns. You got to make explosive plays.
45:45Now he showed he can do that. I will note people are like victory lapping their Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt takes last year
45:52because he went off in the fantasy playoffs. Chris Rodriguez was going to be the one going off.
45:58He got hurt. Chris Rodriguez was going to be the feature back.
46:02They bring in Ja'Cory Kroski Merritt. He gets some soft matchups and he shreds them.
46:07So credit to him. He did it. He shredded those matchups, but it wasn't like they were like, oh, we can't wait to get JCM in there.
46:16So yeah, and Jaden Daniels is also back healthy.
46:19He's going to steal some rushing touchdowns from this group here as well.
46:23And we know Rashad White's going to play every single passing situation.
46:27So just a player that's like really hard to get burned on JCM, I think, an ADP of around 114.
46:34All right. That's going to do it for the Silva top 150 rankings release show.
46:39If you would like to see Silva's full rankings, you do need DraftKit Pro.
46:44Head to establishtherun.com. A ton more comes in DraftKit Pro beyond Silva's rankings.
46:48If you're in the best ball streets, again, these rankings that Silva has are not intended for best ball.
46:54If you are in the best ball streets, you can upload our rankings.
46:59If you do need the best ball product for that, head to establishtherun.com and the best ball tab for details there.
47:06Four. Evan. Bruce Luke. Bruce Ryan. For everyone behind the scenes at ETR, I am Adam.
47:11Good luck, everybody. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.
47:14Bye-bye. Thank you.