PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: The Wildest ADP Move Adam Has Seen (Episode 992 with Adam Levitan)
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16 min
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Jun 29, 2026
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Mon, June 29, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 992 of the official Establish The Run podcast.
0:05My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:16Each week I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:26The idea is simple, give you an idea of how the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:35Reminder that if you want to use the rankings of the guys who won both the DraftKings and FanDuel flagships last year
0:43for $2 million each, you need the ETR Best Ball product.
0:47Obviously I'm biased, but the reason all the sharpest people upload our rankings before they draft is because they know how hard
0:56we grind every shred of information to ensure our uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible.
1:02Our Best Ball product is just $60, renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to EstablishTheRun.com for details.
1:10Also, for my true grinders out there, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant as Sam Shepard, the DraftKings $2 million winner did last year.
1:20Link to that is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
1:24Alright, going to start with the Risers from the Last 7 days.
1:29First one is Quinton Johnston, Chargers wide receiver, up 7.3 more spots to 72 overall.
1:35Someone is going to have to explain this to me.
1:39Two months ago, Quinton Johnston's ADP was 114. We were at 104 overall on him.
1:44Now, he's going 72 overall, and we're at 97 in the ranks.
1:49I'm not sure what has changed that's led to Quinton Johnston steaming up 40 spots.
1:55We already knew Keenan Allen was unlikely to come back to the Chargers.
2:00Lad McConkie, yeah, he sat out some of OTAs with a hamstring issue, but he's expected to be fine.
2:07And like, I agree that Mike McDaniel is a good thing for QJ in the entire offense, but he was hired six months ago, back in January.
2:18So, over the last two months, I legit do not see anything that has changed.
2:24This is one of the wildest moves I can recall in the Best Ball era.
2:2940 spots of ADP on total air. No depth chart change, no injuries around him.
2:35I mean, there's not even like rookie hype that sent Travion Henderson and Emeka Egbuka flying up the board last year.
2:43I'm also confused by this because Quinton Johnston has not been a very good NFL player.
2:50Yes, he showed improvement last year, but he was one of the worst round one rookie wide receivers ever back in 2023.
2:58Let's say you want to throw that out and say, oh, he was a rookie, whatever.
3:04I don't think you should throw it out, but okay, fine.
3:09Even across 2024 and 2025, QJ only posted a 60% catch rate, only caught 3.65 passes per game.
3:16He was at 1.54 yards per route run last two years.
3:20Even last season, he had eight games under 50 yards.
3:24That's half of the games that he played. And on top of all that, it's so crowded in Los Angeles this year.
3:32They drafted Brennan Thompson, Amarin Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, Kamani Vidal.
3:36The tight end room is really strong with Gadsden and Kohler and Njoku.
3:41Oh, and on the coaching change pod, which by the way, I think you guys should really watch slash listen to, but
3:50we forgot to mention when we were talking about Mike McDaniel.
3:54Yes, I love him. We love him. But his offenses tend to play pretty slow to press play volume.
4:01So I don't know, man. I was down to take Quentin Johnston around pick 100 as part of Justin Herbert teams or
4:10just as part of running back heavy starts. It's going to be really hard for me to ever take QJ when he's
4:18going around Drake May, Jaden Daniels, Jordan Tyson, Ramondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, et cetera.
4:24Second riser, Ricky Pearsall up 2.4 spots to 105 overall.
4:28I've mentioned a few times about this mini group of wide receivers.
4:32When I am making my running back heavy starts, I really try to get into that.
4:39Jaden Reed, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jordan Addison, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Worthy, Matthew Golden tier of wide receivers.
4:46On Pearsall specifically, of course, you know, got shot, got his Rolex back.
4:51But long time listeners probably know I am very much against the I can predict injuries crowd.
4:57Every NFL player who has a major role is a favorite to get hurt.
5:03You know, they told me Christian McCaffrey would never sustain health.
5:07And then he played 17 games in 2022, 2023, and 2025.
5:11They said Matthew Stafford was injury prone early in his career.
5:15And he's been one of the NFL's most durable quarterbacks since.
5:20So I'm not just going to ignore Ricky Pearsall's ceiling because I'm playing scared with regard to injury risk.
5:27I mean, he's just set up nicely. Mike Evans is in his age 33 season.
5:33George Kittle's coming off an Achilles tear. Juwan Jennings is gone.
5:37Brandon Ayuk is obviously gone. Kyle Shanahan is the schemer.
5:41If you think McCaffrey is going to regress or get hurt off the massive volume last year, that would be a boost to Pearsall as well.
5:51So if you ask me to rank those three that kind of go close, I would have it Pearsall, then Golden, then Worthy, I think.
6:01But it's super close and I like all three.
6:04Third riser to discuss today, Terrence Ferguson, Rams tight end up 5.2 spots to 202 overall.
6:11We've talked about this spot a few times already on the streams and on the shows.
6:17Yes, the Rams have legit five tight ends they can play.
6:21Terrence Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, Max Clare.
6:25So people's first instinct is to just ignore this spot, this Rams tight end spot.
6:31And I think that's a mistake. We know that they continue to trend to throwing out of fewer and fewer three wide receiver sets.
6:40In 2023, they had three plus wide receivers on the field for 94% of their pass plays.
6:47In 2024, it went down to 89%. Last year, it sunk to 72%.
6:52In other words, last year when they called the pass play, the Rams had two or more tight ends on the field 28% of the time.
7:02And I think that number will rise this year.
7:05They just have such little at wide receiver behind Puka and Devante.
7:10And they dedicated incredible resources to tight end. So is it crazy to think Terrence Ferguson could function as their wide receiver
7:18three at times in certain situations this season? He caught 117 balls over his final three years at Oregon.
7:266'5", 247, ran a 4'6", 3, 39-inch vertical. I think he has the highest pass catching ceiling among the Rams tight ends,
7:34especially if 33-year-old Tyler Higbee is toast. So I've been taking Ferguson as my tight end three or tight end four in
7:43round 19 or round 20 on DraftKings. The problem is people are starting to catch up to our rank here.
7:51We were at 191. It's getting harder and harder to get him in round 19 and 20.
7:57And obviously this could go bad. You know, maybe Higbee finds his old form.
8:03Maybe they fall in love with Max Clare. Maybe Parkinson plays ahead of Ferguson again.
8:08There's definitely plenty of zeros here with Ferguson. So I just, I want to be in on him as the archetype of
8:17ceiling I want to take late at a position where making a difference on my team isn't that hard.
8:24You know, a lot of my tight end builds with Ferguson have four tight ends.
8:30So I'm not relying on him. If he spikes, that's amazing.
8:34But at this range, 19-20, you only needed a few good games.
8:39If he starts going in round 16-17 Terrence Ferguson, that's kind of a different story.
8:45And I'm just not sure I'm going to start reaching for him in there.
8:50Let's get to this week's fallers. Bo Nix down 1.4 spots to 107.5 overall on underdog.
8:57Bo Nix is also down 4.5 spots over the last month.
9:01I don't think this is health-related, as all signs are the ankle will be ready for week one.
9:08But similar to what I mentioned with Dak on Market Monday last week, I'm just waiting for the market to correct a
9:16bit on the gap between the elite dual-threat quarterbacks and the mid-range.
9:21In other words, taking Bo Nix at 1.12 where he goes on DraftKings when I can get Jaden Daniels or Jalen Hurts
9:30around pick 70, that doesn't feel great. In terms of Nix himself, he's just been a good fantasy quarterback through two NFL seasons.
9:38In part due to rushing. I mean, Bo Nix has 786 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in 34 NFL games.
9:47That's pretty strong, especially for someone completing 65% of his passes, getting 1.6 passing touchdowns per game.
9:53So, you know, it's at least in my head that he's coming off his ankle injury and we need his rushing.
10:01I think it's going to be fine. And then you also add in Jalen Waddell, who I think is one of the more underrated NFL wide receivers.
10:12Just a very, very good player. So, there's some good things working for Nix.
10:17His true ceiling is going to be capped by Denver's elite defense.
10:22And I think J.K. Dobbins and the run game is going to be a big part of the game plan.
10:30But, yeah, I mean, Bo Nix is the kind of quarterback I can single-stack with Waddell or I can single-stack with Sutton
10:38at a reasonable cost and be okay with it.
10:42I do think that in a vacuum, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and probably even Goff for me have higher ceilings, which is
10:50why I end up with more of them in this range than Nix.
10:55But I'll probably just be like slightly below market on Bo Nix this year.
11:01Second follower, Katron Allen, Commander's rookie running back down 2.2 spots to 200 overall.
11:06I've just been having a tough time with Commander's running back.
11:10I've talked about Rashad White on here recently. Yes, he's going to play the most snaps as the pass protector and pass catcher.
11:19Ja'Cory Kraske-Meritt is the incumbent presumed starter. I like him.
11:23I think he's a really good pure runner. But let's be clear, he was playing behind Chris Rodriguez for most of last year.
11:32And then they also signed Jerome Ford. They have Jeremy McNichols.
11:36So, it's not like they're desperate to use Katron Allen.
11:40And I think the fantasy community in general just overrates round 6 rookies.
11:45Yeah, you get some hits like Kyle Monongai last year.
11:49But that was a really unique running back class.
11:53If Kyle Monongai was in the 2026 running back class, where does he go?
11:58You know, round 3, round 4. So, I'm okay with Katron in the 200s.
12:04Mostly as a piece of, you know, like the cheapest piece of an ambiguous backfield.
12:09But I say that knowing that there is a very strong possibility of Katron being a 0.
12:16And so, I've probably taken him too high a few times already.
12:21You know, he's going to need to beat out JCM for base slash goal line work.
12:27It's really tough for me to say how likely that is.
12:31I'd be lying if I said that I knew.
12:35I do think even at cost, I prefer JCM to Katron Allen.
12:39Especially on underdog. Where the lack of pass catching and lack of passing role for JCM doesn't really hurt as much.
12:47Alright, last guy to talk about today. Calvin Ridley falling down 3.0 spots to 191 overall.
12:54I gotta say, I've pathetically spent more time thinking about the Titans wide receiver 3 situation than I care to admit, you know.
13:03And honestly, zooming out, it does seem silly. We're talking about the third option behind Carnell Tate and Wandale Robinson for an
13:11offense, a Titans offense that ranked 31st in yards per play last season.
13:16But, with the improved personnel, Dayball coming in, Cam Ward year 2, there's a little bit of upside.
13:23And I do think getting late round wide receiver stuff right this year is quite important.
13:29As we're getting into so many running back heavy starts.
13:33So, I actually think that Calvin Ridley would be a pretty good pick here at 191.
13:39If I knew he was locked for the whole year as the wide receiver 3.
13:45You know, he's been okay. Last year, 1.89 yards per route run.
13:50Year before that, 1.86. And that was despite some really shaky quarterback play.
13:55Really shaky scheming. So, and I do think that he fits.
13:59He fits the intermediate role. Carnell Tate, the deep threat.
14:03Wandale Robinson is a short area possession guy. But, the problem is, I can't sit here and say that Calvin Ridley will
14:12definitely have this wide receiver 3 role on the Titans to himself all season.
14:17They have 2 young wide receivers. Who I thought showed pretty good flashes as rookies last year.
14:24In Elik Ayomanor and Shamir Dike. So, if the season starts going sideways.
14:29The Titans season starts going sideways. It would be a bit silly for them to play Ridley over these young wide receivers.
14:37So, you know, there's some team risk. And then the other risk is simply, Ridley's got to play well.
14:45He's got to play well enough to hold off Ayomanor and Dike.
14:49And Ridley's 31 years old. He was injured most of last season.
14:54He also had a pathetic 47% catch rate with Cam Ward last year, which is concerning.
15:00So, I do think Ridley should be dropping a bit behind the tier that I prefer.
15:06I prefer to get into the tier of Isaac Tesla, Ryan Flournoy, Denzel Boston, Aidy Mitchell, Jerry Judy.
15:13I prefer to get into that tier at late round wide receiver.
15:18Before it gets to the Calvin Ridley range down here at 191.
15:23All right. That is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
15:28I appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to hit the subscribe button on our free YouTube page so we can continue to
15:37bring you the shows you cannot fathom living without.
15:40Also, if you're serious about this stuff, check out the Establish the Edge show that's on YouTube and iTunes.
15:47Mark, Jack, and Ben Gretch are breaking down all the inputs on the projection side.
15:53Think if you're serious. It's really, really valuable. Four.
15:57Bruce Luke. Bruce Orion. For everyone behind the scenes at ETR, I'm Adam.
16:02Good luck, everybody.