PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: Should We Buy The Rising Prices On Stefon Diggs, Josh Downs, and Denzel Boston? (Episode 1006 with Adam Levitan)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
16 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 10, 2026
Published
Mon, August 10, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Denzel BostonJordan AddisonJosh DownsMakai LemonStefon Diggs
Player analysis
Player insights
Denzel Boston
PositiveBreakout10:24
Levitan is high on Denzel Boston, citing his elite physical profile (6'4", 212 lbs, 35-inch vertical) and production (20 TDs in his final 25 games at Washington). He trusts the Todd Monken regime to utilize Boston's talent and views him as a superior pick to other late-round options like Jawan Jennings or Trey Tucker.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveValue21:52
Despite concerns about the Vikings' quarterback situation and Matt Harmon's assessment that Addison is overrated, Levitan believes Addison is underpriced at 102. He argues that if Kyler Murray performs at a league-average level, Addison's talent and age (24) make him a strong value compared to the running backs available in that range.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeValue6:47
Levitan notes that while Downs is a talented player, his rising ADP to 86 makes him less of a 'smash' pick than he was at 100. Risks include the return of Alec Pierce to full health and the potential signing of Keenan Allen, which could impact Downs' role. However, he remains a target at 86 due to his age-25 upside and the Colts' thin wide receiver depth.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveValue13:38
Despite a falling ADP to 92 due to hamstring injuries and concerns about the Eagles' low-pass-rate offense, Levitan is becoming tempted by Lemon. He suggests that Dontavian Wicks may not hold the starting role all season and that betting on Lemon's talent as the price drops is a viable strategy.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue1:54
Despite a rising ADP to 105.7 following his move to Washington, Levitan views Diggs as a solid pick. He highlights Diggs' efficiency last season (2.42 yards per route run, 1,000+ yards) despite limited snaps and an ACL recovery. The move to Washington is viewed as a net positive due to expected two-tight-end sets that should increase his snap share and the presence of Jayden Daniels, who can elevate the offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1006 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:14Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:24The idea is simple, give you an idea of what the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:33Reminder, if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships lasted
0:41for $2 million each, if you want to use those rankings, you need the ETR Best Ball product.
0:48Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason the sharpest people all upload our rankings is because they know how hard we grind every
0:56shred of information to ensure those uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible.
1:01Our Best Ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date.
1:07So head to EstablishTheRun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant.
1:17Just as Sam Shepard, the DraftKings winner, did last year.
1:20Link to the Solver Draft Assistant is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
1:26Oh, and also, I know this is technically a Best Ball show.
1:30I think a lot of what I talk about on here from player take perspective applies to season long.
1:37Don't forget about DraftKings Pro or the Early Bird Bundle for all your season long slash redraft needs.
1:44Early Bird price only live for a limited time.
1:48So head to EstablishTheRun.com. All right. Gonna start with the risers from the last seven days.
1:54First one, Stephon Diggs up 31 spots to 105.7 overall on DraftKings.
1:58Of course, this is stemming from him signing with the Washington Commanders.
2:03Two important things on Diggs, I think. First, if last year is any indication, Stefon Diggs can still play.
2:10Remember, he was coming off an ACL tear last season, seemingly dabbling in pink substances, definitely chilling on boats with young women.
2:18And he still played in all 17 games, still posted an elite 2.42 yards per route run, still went over 1,000 yards,
2:26despite only playing 57% of the snaps. I mean, Diggs had a really nice season.
2:32And second, the opportunity in Washington is really strong.
2:35We are expecting plenty of two tight end sets, which should juice the opportunity for both Terry McLaurin and Stephon Diggs.
2:43Again, when you are competing with tight ends for targets rather than more wide receivers on the field, that is better for the wide receivers on the field.
2:54Do think that will be Diggs and McLaurin for most of the snaps.
2:59So we're expecting the snap count to jump. Antonio Williams, Traylon Burks, Luke McCaffrey, they aren't keeping Diggs off the field if his body can handle it.
3:09And then the other part of this opportunity is Jaden Daniels back healthy.
3:14He can really elevate teammates and you get some shootout effects with the way Jaden Daniels can play and also the defensive talent level in Washington.
3:24So, yeah, I had around 14% Diggs at the time of the signing, average pick of 133.4.
3:30It doesn't feel great taking him at 105 now once you have him at 133, but I'm trying to ignore that because
3:38I still think he's such a solid pick in a vacuum.
3:43And again, one of the reasons the running back heavier starts feel better this year is the quality of wide receivers in this range.
3:52And we can add Diggs to it. I'm talking Josh Downs, Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Matthew Golden, Worthy, Deboe, Stribbling, Coker, Diggs.
4:00I think that wide receiver range is pretty solid.
4:03Speaking of that range, let's get to riser number two.
4:07Josh Downs up 6.4 spots to 86 overall. I mean, nothing is stopping the Josh Downs hype train.
4:14There's just nothing pushing it the other way. I cannot find a single person on earth or a group to say anything bad about Josh Downs.
4:24The tape bros love Downs. The analytics bros love Downs.
4:28Alignment bros are convinced he's playing in all two wide receiver sets.
4:32The coaches are raving about Downs. Front office is raving.
4:36Beat writers, laundry bros. So you combine all this hype around Josh Downs with this lingering Alec Pierce ankle injury.
4:43And by the way, Alec Pierce still not practicing.
4:47Still reportedly a couple weeks away, even though they said a couple weeks ago he'd be ready.
4:53You're just getting a meteoric rise on Josh Downs.
4:57So the question is no longer, is Josh Downs a good pick?
5:01Clearly he is. It's how expensive is too expensive.
5:04The way it goes bad for Downs at this cost is Alec Pierce returns in two weeks, gets close to 100% for
5:13week one, and runs intermediate, short area routes unlike he did last year.
5:18And then at the same time, the other way it runs out bad for Josh Downs is Colts, sign, target earning veteran,
5:26Keenan Allen, who has some history with the coaching staff.
5:30Like both of those things are certainly in the range of outcomes.
5:34Pierce Health, Keenan Allen signing. So I do not want to chase Downs too far up the board, especially a guy who is 5'9", 171.
5:44It's just really difficult at that size to be a real load-bearing wideout.
5:49But as it sits now with what we know about Pierce and how much Downs has been running in two wide receiver
5:57sets at camp, I'm still willing to take him at 86 overall.
6:01Not a smash like he was around pick 100.
6:05But Daniel Jones is reportedly looking 100% off the Achilles tear.
6:09They're extremely thin at wide receiver, even if Pierce is fine.
6:13And we know Downs is very good as he enters his age 25 season.
6:18And I think that's enough at 86 to still make picks here on Josh Downs.
6:24Final riser is another wide receiver, Denzel Boston, up 12.2 spots to 157 overall and climbing.
6:30This is another wide receiver we've been way ahead of market on all offseason.
6:35And market is really starting to catch up now.
6:39The latest steam on Denzel Boston is coming from Beat Report saying that Boston's been the star of camp.
6:46Just making plays every day. Boston and Concepcion are the two best wide receivers on the field.
6:52And then today, Todd Monken comes out and announces that Denzel Boston is going to be getting more first-team reps.
7:00Boston had been a go-to for me late in drafts.
7:04I have 22%. In terms of fees, at an average pick of 168, he had been a target for me.
7:11Because just on talent, borderline first-round NFL talent in the real draft was targeted by this new Todd Monken regime, which I have a ton of respect for.
7:22And then if Deshaun Watson has anything left or if Shador Sanders can actually play, I trust Todd Monken to find it with those guys.
7:31And then we also get a downgrade on Brown's defense with Myles Garrett going maybe a little bit more shootout appeal.
7:39But really, to me, the Denzel Boston bet is simple.
7:43I want to bet against Jerry Judy. I want to bet on Todd Monken.
7:48And I want to bet on Denzel Boston as legit NFL talent.
7:53Scored 20 touchdowns in his final 25 games at Washington.
7:57Was an early declare. Just looks like the classic X at nearly 6'4", 212 pounds, 35-inch vertical.
8:03So I think both Concepcion at 128 overall and Boston here at 157, they're solid picks.
8:09You know, I easily prefer Boston to Jawan Jennings, Trey Tucker, Isaac Tesla, Travis Hunter, Malik Washington, etc.
8:16All right, let's go to this week's Fallers. First one, Eagles rookie Makai Lemon down 7.3 spots to 92 overall.
8:23Not the cleanest start to Makai Lemon's career. Missed roughly half of OTAs due to hamstring injury.
8:30And then missed a huge chunk of camp already due to hamstring.
8:34We know that preseason injuries are worse for rookies.
8:38They're already swimming in the playbook. Don't have chemistry with teammates to fall back on.
8:43Haven't established trust with the coaches yet. So add this to the list of concerns.
8:49The injury stuff, add that to the list of concerns that already existed for Makai Lemon.
8:55He profiles as a slot receiver in an offense that projects to be in a lot of two wide receiver sets.
9:03He does his best work over the middle in an offense that has one of the league's lowest pass rates over the middle.
9:12It's also an offense that will almost certainly be among the league leaders in rushing rate and among the league's lowest in pass rate over expectation.
9:21That's all the negative stuff on Lemon and why he's sinking closer to our rank now.
9:27But man, he's getting closer to the point where I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted by Makai Lemon.
9:35Right now, Dontavian Wicks is the clear starter opposite Devonta Smith.
9:40But how confident are we that that lasts? I mean, if you have torched as much money as I have on Dontavian
9:48Wicks and DFS in like really good and clear spots, you can't be that confident that Wicks can hold off Lemon all season.
9:57Lemon was a very, very good prospect. So again, as he sinks towards that hundred overall mark on DraftKings, I think there's
10:05some merit in just betting on talent and letting the chips fall.
10:09I also think there's a really good chance this whole Eagles offense rebounds in a big way with Petulo gone, Sean Mannion in.
10:18You know, we talked about that on the coaching change show, which everyone should watch before they draft if you haven't yet.
10:26So right now, I only have 2.5%. Makai Lemon, if he keeps sinking towards our rank, I'll be getting that exposure up on Lemon.
10:35Second faller, Chargers tight end Arande Gadsden down 6.9 spots to 155.
10:40Gadsden had a really impressive 2025. I mean, as a round five rookie, you're always a huge dog to have an impact.
10:48And a rookie tight end is typically a huge dog to have an impact as well.
10:54And yet, Gadsden catches 49 balls, 664 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1.66 yards per route run, on a pretty high for a tight end 9.4 yard ADOT.
11:04So it was exciting, I thought, what Gadsden did last year.
11:08But then, Chargers overhaul the coaching staff. New staff brings in Charlie Kolar.
11:13Then signs David Njoku. Where does that leave Gadsden?
11:17I mean, reports at campus he's been running with the backups.
11:21I think Charlie Kolar will lead this group in snaps by a wide margin as their base tight end.
11:28I still can't really figure out the Njoku thing.
11:31It's just so weird to me. Why the NFL has hated him so much.
11:37Like, no trade at last year's deadline when, to me, he was the most obvious trade candidate at the deadline.
11:44Maybe no one wanted him. Because in free agency, there was zero interest in David Njoku.
11:50Settles for a bottom-of-the-barrel deal. So, he's a veteran player.
11:54I still think he's going to get snaps. So, where is that lever on Gadsden?
12:00My thought is he'll play a package-specific role in passing situations.
12:04You know, similar to the way the Bills have used Kincaid.
12:08Or the Bengals have used Gasicki. Dolchich has played that role at times.
12:13Darren Waller at times. These really good pass-catching tight ends.
12:17Who can only play 40-60% of the snaps. And offense has kind of tipped their hand when you put them out there.
12:25Those guys aren't great bets. They can't have spike weeks, though.
12:29I do think there's more risk in Gadsden. Because, again, it's a new regime.
12:34We don't know exactly what his role will be.
12:38So, at 155 overall, I think I'm out at that price.
12:42At 155. I do think he's too gifted as a pass-catcher to let slip past, you know, 175, 180.
12:49I'm just not sure he's going to get there.
12:52So, I'll probably have a pretty big fade here on Arande Gadsden.
12:57Much prefer the Aconquo, Jawan Johnson. Hawkinson bets. And then later, like even if you pass on tight end in that range, Terrence Ferguson, Gunnar Helm, Michael Mayer.
13:07I think those are better picks at cost than Gadsden at 155.
13:12Third and final faller for me is Jordan Addison down 4.1 spots to 102 overall.
13:18I think the dip on Addison likely has to do with the Kyler Murray, J.J.
13:23McCarthy stuff Sylvan and I hit on on the news show last week.
13:28Along those lines, I do think things sound better now.
13:32I mean, Kyler's taking most of the first team reps.
13:36Hopefully name the starter soon. But the point remains that the Vikings, at a minimum, are not giving up on J.J.
13:44McCarthy. If Kyler struggles, we could certainly see J.J.
13:47McCarthy late. The Vikings are way more incentivized to get more looks at J.J.
13:52McCarthy than Kyler Murray. They have nothing invested in Kyler Murray.
13:56And if J.J. McCarthy is in there, well then, Jordan Addison is pretty much dust.
14:02And then the other negative on Addison is, on last week's wide receiver show with Harmon that hopefully you guys caught, he
14:10thinks Addison is overrated as an NFL wide receiver.
14:14You know, not ideal. But, gosh man, if Kyler can just play as well as Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullins, Carson Wentz has,
14:22if he can play as well as those guys have in the Kevin O'Connell, Justin Jefferson era, it's hard for me to
14:30believe Addison isn't underpriced at 102 overall. You know, just 24 years old.
14:35Scored 20 times in his first two NFL seasons.
14:39I consider Jawan Jennings a blocking wide receiver. So, again, you know, I mentioned it on the dig stuff, but this price
14:47contains some really interesting wide receiver bets. Like, this range of wide receiver, to me, is better than the running back range
14:55of Blake Corum, Chuba Hubbard, Kyle Manongai, Kenny Gamewell types.
14:59And so, I try to adjust my strategy accordingly earlier in the draft to leave room for me to address wide receiver
15:07in this range where I like a lot of the bets, including Addison.
15:12All right. That is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
15:18Appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to hit subscribe on our free YouTube page so we can continue to bring you shows
15:26that you cannot fathom without, like this one. Big week on the channel, by the way.
15:32Three more shows coming this week. The much anticipated Silva vs.
15:36Leone Man vs. Machine. Also, News and Rankings Show and Auction Strategy Show.
15:41Remember, Exposure Tracker for Best Ball is free on Solver.
15:45If you need an account, highly, highly, highly recommend that.
15:49Link to that is in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
15:53All right. For Bruce Luke, Bruce Ryan, with Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world, I am Adam.
16:00Good luck, everybody.