PodcastFrom Establish The Run
The Best Bets In NFL Awards Markets Right Now (Episode 987 with Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, Ryan Reynolds)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 10, 2026
Published
Wed, June 10, 2026
20
Player insights
19
Players mentioned
Topics
Joe BurrowA.J. BrownAbdul CarterArvell ReeseBaker MayfieldBrock BowersCaleb WilliamsChris OlaveDavid BaileyJacob RodriguezJared GoffJayden DanielsJeremiyah LoveKC Concepcion
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue0:15
AJ Brown is seen as a strong value at 50 to one for offensive player of the year, given the team's commitment to getting him the ball.
Insight pageAbdul Carter
PositiveProjection0:40
Abdul Carter is noted for his raw talent and potential to be in the mix for defensive player of the year, especially if the Giants perform well.
Insight pageArvell Reese
PositiveBreakout0:32
Arvell Reese is compared to Micah Parsons, suggesting he could approach 80 tackles as an off-ball linebacker while also getting pass rush opportunities, making him an intriguing candidate for defensive rookie of the year.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveProjection0:03
Baker Mayfield has a favorable early schedule that could lead to increased production, especially with a weak division.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveBreakout0:03
Brock Bowers, a first team all pro as a rookie, is considered a strong long shot bet at 80 to one for offensive player of the year due to limited competition for targets.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveProjection0:15
Caleb Williams has the potential to be a strong MVP candidate in his second season, especially with a favorable schedule and primetime games.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue0:01
Chris Olave is viewed as a long shot at 100 to one for offensive player of the year, with potential for a breakout season under Kellen Moore.
Insight pageDavid Bailey
PositiveBreakout0:22
David Bailey, the second overall pick pass rusher, is a solid bet at plus 500 for defensive rookie of the year, although he may face challenges due to a lack of support on the defensive front.
Insight pageJacob Rodriguez
PositiveBreakout0:08
Jacob Rodriguez has the potential to compete for the league lead in tackles on a bad team, similar to Carson Schwestinger's outlier season last year.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection0:41
Jared Goff has a favorable schedule and could potentially throw for 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards this season.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection0:11
Jaden Daniels has shown potential as a talent elevator and could be a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year if he plays well.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeValue0:03
Jeremiah Love's chances for Offensive Rookie of the Year may be hindered by the Cardinals' difficult schedule and potential lack of wins.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection0:10
Joe Burrow has a strong chance to be an MVP candidate if he stays healthy and the Bengals win 13 or 14 games this season.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:52
Joe Burrow is viewed as potentially the best quarterback in the NFL, making the Bengals' 22 to one odds to win the Super Bowl an attractive bet.
Insight pageKC Concepcion
PositiveSleeper0:21
KC Concepcion could be a target machine in a new offensive scheme and is worth considering as a long shot for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveProjection0:06
Kenneth Walker is expected to be the every down back for the Chiefs, showcasing explosive play ability and catching skills, making him a focal point of the offense.
Insight pageMicah Parsons
PositiveInjury0:16
Micah Parsons, despite being sidelined for the first few weeks, is viewed as a potential candidate for defensive player of the year if he can rack up significant sacks upon his return.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveValue0:33
O'Marion Hampton is viewed as a player with a favorable situation at plus 4000, but the speaker expresses skepticism about his talent.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection0:16
Trevor Lawrence had a strong season last year and could benefit from a deep group of pass catchers this season.
Insight pageZachariah Branch
PositiveSleeper0:06
Zachariah Branch has the potential to make an impact as a rookie and could be a fun long shot for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 987 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:03My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR.
0:08As always, joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva. The time to get the best prices in the NFL futures market is now, a few months before week one.
0:16To discuss this, I am joined by our own award specialist, Ryan Reynolds.
0:21Ryan, how's it going today, buddy? Adam, Evan, pleasure as always.
0:24Looking forward to my annual stop on your show.
0:27Evan, how's it going today, buddy? It's going great.
0:30I think this is actionable shows that we do each offseason.
0:33Can't wait to hear the takes. All right. On today's show, we are going to discuss all of the awards markets from
0:40a betting perspective, MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback, etc.
0:43And then at the end, we'll also hit quickly on some futures that we see.
0:48Things like odds to win the Super Bowl, division, odds to make the playoffs, etc.
0:53All right. Let's get into it here, boys. Want to start with MVP.
0:57This was a hotly contested race last year. Matthew Stafford barely edges out Drake Maye.
1:01Any thoughts on what happened last year and what typically wins the NFL MVP award?
1:06Yeah, it's generally a quarterback award for a long time now.
1:09Each of the last two years were really close races, really.
1:13And one thing I think we learned from those is if there's a close race, legacy tends to be the tiebreaker.
1:19Two years ago, Josh Allen winning his first MVP over Lamar Jackson winning his third.
1:24And Stafford, you know, it's a career achievement award.
1:27He had an edge in raw production. Drake May had a super efficient season against a pretty, pretty historically weak schedule, I'd frame it.
1:34But yeah, I would say if we're in a situation again where young guy, good year, older guy that needs like that,
1:41that featherness cap for his legacy, voters are that's going to swing some voters.
1:45It's just a reminder that the people voting for this are humans and they're going to have biases such as, hey, Matthew
1:52Stafford's been a great guy, been a great player in this league for dozens of years.
1:57Even if you thought that Drake May was maybe slightly better, these people are humans and they're voting.
2:03And again, as we say every year, our job is not to figure out who should win the award.
2:09It is to figure out who these people will vote for.
2:12And a lot of the voters aren't analytically driven.
2:15They might just be ball guys or whatever. So yeah, it's important point.
2:19I think for sure. One thing that sticks out this year to me, Reynolds, is that Stafford and May were the two clear favorites last year.
2:27And this year they're nowhere near the top. You know, May is 11 to one.
2:32Stafford's 14 to one. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow are all ahead.
2:37So what do you think about the 2026 race for MVP right now, Reynolds?
2:42I know I was very upset to see Justin Herbert in the spot that you said because I was kind of bullish
2:48on him coming into things, but he's priced too high for me.
2:52Too low, rather. Again, I generally like the favorites in this race, so I don't really have anything interesting apart from this comment.
2:59I'm not a Baker Mayfield guy. He's plus 5,500 on FanDuel.
3:03He opens the season against Cincinnati in a potential shootout.
3:06When you guys are doing your daily fantasy takes going into week one, I'm sure you'll be talking about that one at length.
3:13Then he's got Cleveland at home versus Minnesota versus the no Micah Parsons Packers at home at Dallas on Thursday Night Football.
3:20I could see him being very productive during that stretch with a three and two or better record in a very, very weak division.
3:27So I don't think Mayfield's going to end up winning, but I could see him being much more expensive in week two or three.
3:35Okay, so a big thing that's changed since we did this last year is the liquidity in prediction markets.
3:41And so what Ryan is talking about here, you can start with Baker Mayfield at 45 to 1.
3:46Even if you don't think he's going to win, he gets out to a hot start, he gets down to 20 to 1.
3:53You can immediately turn a profit there much better than you get on cash out offers on sportsbooks.
3:59So, you know, keep that in mind. I think the entire awards process and market has gained so much liquidity through their prediction markets.
4:06And there's so many other ways to play it now.
4:10From a football perspective, Evan Baker, the excuse for Baker last year was he was just hurt.
4:15And he was playing hurt for much of the year.
4:18And that flowed through to just a really, really rough second half.
4:22So that's not the craziest thing that I've ever heard.
4:25I mean, Baker was, people were talking about the level Baker was playing at early last year prior to the injury.
4:31So Evan, any thoughts on Baker and any other MVP thoughts for 2026?
4:35Yeah, so I understand Baker Mayfield, the idea behind Baker Mayfield potentially getting off to a hot start.
4:41He actually was, people were talking about him as being an MVP running through five or six weeks last year when he
4:48had led a bunch of comebacks and did some late game heroics.
4:52And then, you know, Mike Evans is hurt and Chris Godwin in the same.
4:56I mean, Egbuka has the hamstring injury and maybe Baker was playing at less than 100%.
5:01At the end of the day, I just don't think that Baker Mayfield is good enough to win an NFL MVP award.
5:08A player that I do think at least has the potential to be good enough to win an NFL MVP award is
5:15Caleb Williams, who took a really big step in his second NFL season.
5:19This will be his second season in the Ben Johnson offense, who will also be the second season for his top two
5:26pass catchers in Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. As you mentioned, you know, we want to get inside the heads of voters.
5:32And so, like when we're trying to forecast who's going to win these awards, and the Bears play a ton of primetime games this year.
5:40And I don't think it hurts that Caleb Williams is the Madden cover boy.
5:45And I don't think it hurt, it certainly doesn't hurt that the Bears did very little to upgrade their defense this offseason.
5:51Very little. I mean, they've received a ton of criticism in Chicago for that.
5:56And I think that that could lead to an amplification of Caleb Williams' counting stats at the end of the day.
6:02I was looking at, you know, the overall odds, obviously, before this show.
6:06And I thought that Caleb Williams belongs more in the Justin Herbert tier.
6:10Justin Herbert 10-1. Caleb Williams 14-1 on DraftKings. I think that Caleb Williams belongs neck and neck with Justin Herbert.
6:17Yeah. My only thought on Caleb is that we're going to talk about coach of the year.
6:22And there is 25-1 out there on Ben Johnson.
6:25If Caleb Williams plays well enough to be MVP, I kind of think Ben Johnson 25-1, coach of the year, you get much longer odds there.
6:33He'd certainly be in the mix as well. I'll talk more about that when we get to coach of the year.
6:39The guys at 10-1, to me, are fascinating. When the tackles, Slater and Alt, were healthy last year, Justin Herbert was shredding.
6:46Now he gets rid of these boomers coaching staff, and he brings in Mike McDaniel, gets rid of Keenan Allen.
6:52I could see it on Justin Herbert if the Chargers can stay healthy.
6:56The Chargers have not stayed healthy in the history of NFL football.
7:00So maybe that's a moot point. The guy that I had written down, though, as my favorite, which I'm really curious to
7:07get your guys' take on, was the Joe Burrow at 10-1.
7:10The Bengals have the third easiest schedule this season.
7:13Burrow has had one healthy season in the last three.
7:16That was 2024. I feel like people forget how good Joe Burrow is because he's been hurt so much.
7:22In that 2024 season when he sustained health, 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, completes over 70% of his passes, throws just nine interceptions.
7:29Insane, insane stuff. Now that year in 2024, he still finished only fourth in the MVP race because the Bengals only won nine games.
7:37Bills won 13 games. Josh Allen was the MVP that year.
7:40And so this goes back to my point that if you are going to win MVP, your team needs to win 13 games.
7:47At least. If the Bengals win 13 or 14 this year, I really think, and Joe Burrow stays healthy, obviously, I think
7:54Joe Burrow has a really, really good chance as like a feel-good story, been in the league a while, finally sustains health, goes nuts.
8:01Reynolds, any thoughts on the Joe Burrow stuff? Yeah, for sure.
8:05I mean, whenever I look at an MVP candidate, I think I ask myself two questions.
8:10Can this be the most productive quarterback in the league?
8:13And with Burrow, I think the answer is absolutely.
8:16Record-wise, can they have the best record in the conference?
8:19I think it's at least on the table. 11, 12 wins, I think, puts them in play.
8:24I think Cincinnati has a 10-and-a-half game win total.
8:27So, yeah, I like Burrow. Do you think the Bengals' defense can help at all this year, Evan?
8:33They were so, they've been so, so, so bad.
8:35I know they're not going to be good. They're probably in the bottom third.
8:40Can they get to, like, league average, though, and maybe win 13 games?
8:44Any thoughts on Bengals' defense playing better? I mean, I would rank them in the low 20s still.
8:49Yeah. You know, so, I mean, I would, I still wouldn't view them as totally a negative, maybe as it pertains to
8:56the Bengals' win total, but I wouldn't view them as totally a negative as it pertains to Joe Burrow, his counting stats at the end of the year.
9:05I mean, I think it could help with that.
9:08And really, at the end of the day, I think that the Bengals, the way that they're going to win games is not through their defense.
9:16I mean, they could have what, you know, maybe do what the Bears did last year and have, like, an awesome turnover differential.
9:23But I think at the end of the day, you're going to want the Bengals to outscore their opponents on Joe Burrow's back.
9:30And that's your path to an MVP for Joe Burrow.
9:33All right. A couple other ones I wanted to run past you guys.
9:37Jared Goff, there is 40-1 out there. I know he's 35-1 on DraftKings.
9:41As a reminder, please shop for this stuff. There are different numbers everywhere.
9:45If you need accounts on different books, you can head to the props tab on ETR.
9:50But Jared Goff, you can find 40-1 out there.
9:53Now, the Lions have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
9:57I don't think that Goff can really throw 50 touchdowns like Joe Burrow could.
10:01But could Jared Goff throw for 40 touchdowns and 5,000 yards?
10:05Sure. So at 40-1, I thought that was okay.
10:07And then there is also 25-1 out there on Jaden Daniels.
10:11If you go back to Jaden Daniels' rookie year, it looked like he would be a future MVP in the league.
10:17Like, the team was not good. And Jaden Daniels was so spectacular as a rookie.
10:22And that's the kind of stuff that can win MVP.
10:25I just don't think the commanders are really... Like, how do the commanders win 13 games?
10:30It seems almost impossible to me, given their roster.
10:33But yeah, Evan, any thoughts on those? Goff or Jaden Daniels' MVP?
10:37Yeah, I had Jaden Daniels written down. You know, I feel a greater comfort level, and I think it may even raise
10:44the probability, looking forward, that these guys that have won awards before.
10:47I mean, we have seen voters vote for these guys for prominent awards before.
10:52Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams won a Heisman Trophy. Jaden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy.
10:56And he was the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
10:59So we've seen voters vote for him for stuff before.
11:02If you go back to Jaden Daniels' 2024 season, these are his top six pass catchers in terms of receptions.
11:08Okay, Terry McCorn, we think he's good. Zach Gertz was number two.
11:12Olimini Zaccheus was number three. Austin Eckler was number four.
11:15Noah Brown, five. And Dayami Brown, six. All those guys had 30-plus catches.
11:19Jaden Daniels, when he is healthy, is an elevator of the players around him.
11:24And that was in, you know, not the greatest offensive scheme either under Cliff Kingsbury.
11:28I like what we've heard from David Blau, the Redskins or the Commander's new offensive coordinator so far.
11:34And I'm betting on Jaden Daniels to be a talent elevator.
11:37We've seen him do that before in the NFL.
11:40And I also noticed that Ryan Reynolds is on the Commanders to win the NFC East, which supports this hypothesis because, I
11:47mean, that certainly would work in the favor of Jaden Daniels if the Commanders are good again.
11:52There's a lot of different ways. If you like Commander stuff, which, you know, we'll talk more about that at the end,
11:59but if you like Commander stuff, there's definitely a lot of ways to play this.
12:04Reynolds, any final thoughts on MVP, Goff, Daniels, anything else before we move on?
12:08My list was Herbert, Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow, Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jaden Daniels.
12:12So no real pushback, gentlemen. What do you guys think about Trevor Lawrence?
12:16The Jaguars confused me, so I don't have a strong stance on that.
12:20Well, yeah. Speaking of guys that have gotten votes before, he was fifth in MVP voting last year.
12:26He was awesome last year. He was awesome last year.
12:29If you look at like the – we're having problems projecting the Jaguars' pass catchers in fantasy right now because there are so many of them.
12:37I think that could work in the favor of Trevor Lawrence.
12:41You know, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas, Jacoby Myers in his first full season as a Jaguar.
12:46Travis Hunter is like a forgotten man. Brenton Strange was nice last season, and he's a second-round pick on the other tight end, Nick Borkercher.
12:53So, I mean, they're kind of flush with weapons, and Liam Conant kind of unlocked Trevor Lawrence as a runner last year.
13:00I just – I think that he's at least worth throwing out there.
13:04Okay. Last thing I'll say on MVP, I know people are going to respond in the comments.
13:10Why didn't you guys talk about Jameer Gibbs or Bijon Robinson or Jamar Chase for MVP?
13:14Let's not torch money on that stuff, guys. Christian McCaffrey, Barkley, they've gone for like over 2,000 yards and did not come close to winning MVP.
13:23So this is a quarterback award period. All right.
13:25Let's go to Offensive Rookie of the Year here, Reynolds.
13:29This was a very weak award last year. It was good for me because at one point, Ted Arari McMillan got down
13:35to 16-1, and I got a little taste of him there.
13:39It's just everybody else fell. Everybody else fell on their face, including Ashton Gentry, and Mekka Buka falls on his face down the stretch.
13:46And Ted McMillan, just by playing decent for 17 weeks, he ends up winning it.
13:51Ted McMillan, I thought he was fine. He averaged 4.1 catches per game.
13:55He only had two 100-yard games. He barely got over 1,000 yards.
13:59So again, you don't have to blow the doors off.
14:02It just all depends on the class, Reynolds' general thoughts on what happened last year and Offensive Rookie of the Year.
14:08Yeah, just a race where it didn't really have a true winner.
14:12Just like a lot of guys who had solid rookie seasons where McMillan's team went to the playoffs.
14:18He hit that magic number in receiving yards. So this year seems to have more headliners.
14:23So hopefully someone runs away with it. Okay. Jeremiah Love of the Cardinals, number three overall pick, is the favorite here at plus 320.
14:30Fernando Mendoza's second choice at 4-1, and then you get the receivers, Tate, Tyson, Mekhi Lemon, all under 10-1, and Jerry and Price.
14:37Anyone beyond those six guys, you're getting very, very long odds on Reynolds.
14:41Any initial thoughts on 2026 Rookie of the Year?
14:44That's my cluster. I don't have anything interesting to say about a long shot.
14:48I'd have to invent one for myself personally. I like Price at plus 1,400.
14:53I see him at plus 750 now. I don't like that.
14:56I'm thinking maybe Love opens the year and kind of a messy, messy backfield in terms of volume.
15:02And, you know, does Mendoza start on opening day?
15:05So if I was going to bet on any of these guys now, it would be Tate.
15:10He's a little too short for me to do that in June.
15:14But I think like how I'm treating it is, if Mendoza doesn't start, I'll be looking to jump in in like week two or three.
15:21Yeah. I'll open his odds dip. One thing about the quarterbacks though, like you don't have to start.
15:27I thought Tyler Shuck had a pretty good case last year to be the offensive rookie of the year.
15:33And he didn't play for like, what was it, half the season or something like that?
15:38I might've actually voted for Shuck over McMillan, even though he only played half the year.
15:43So I think Mendoza is going to play more than people think.
15:47I don't think he's going to start week one, but I do think he's going to start a ton of games.
15:53We talked about this after the draft though, Evan.
15:56I think Mendoza was more like five to one, six to one.
16:00Now he's four to one. He was exactly what he is right now today at four to one.
16:05Oh, was he four to one back then? Yeah, I remember this distinctly because I was like, this is crazy.
16:12He should be the favorite for offensive rookie of the year.
16:15Talk about a guy who already won an award.
16:18He won the Heisman last year. He was the number one pick in the draft.
16:22The Raiders have had one winning season in the last nine.
16:26If the Raiders somehow have a winning season and Mendoza starts 10 plus games, I mean, I think he's like a virtual lock.
16:33And he's got Brock Bowers and he's got Clint Kubiak.
16:36He's got enough. He's also a really likable character.
16:39I think. And I just, yeah. I mean, let's say he doesn't start until week five or week six, but then he
16:46leads the Raiders to a winning record. None of the voters by week 18 are going to care that he didn't start
16:53the first five or six games of the season.
16:55If this guy's out here playing well and turning the Raiders around, that is a heck of a task to accomplish.
17:02And I think that he is a guy that could do it four to one.
17:07I mean, I think he should be the favorite.
17:09Well, you'll get a better number. I don't think he's going to start week one.
17:14If he doesn't start week one. Neither do I.
17:17But yeah, you're right. I mean, if he doesn't start week one, I mean, you may get him at seven to one by week two.
17:25I mean, you're 100% going to get a better number.
17:28Every week he doesn't start. You'll just keep getting better and better and better numbers.
17:32So I might hold off on that because I do think Cousins will start week one, but Mendoza will get in there relatively quickly.
17:40Bet it now, bet it then, and win them all.
17:43This Cardinals situation, man. They were one of the worst teams in the league last year, and they have one of the hardest schedules I can remember.
17:51Like, this Cardinals schedule is so brutal. They are an underdog on the look of headlines in every single game this season.
17:58So can Jeremiah Love win this award if the Cardinals only win three or four games?
18:03Yeah, he can. I don't think that this is like a win requirement type market, but it certainly doesn't help if your
18:10team lane wins three or four games. So I certainly would not be betting Jeremiah Love here at plus 320.
18:16I had one long shot written down only because I love our boy, Evan.
18:21What if KC Concepcion is Todd MF and Monkens, Nusei Flowers, and Deshaun Watson comes out back, or Shador Sanders, and plays reasonably?
18:28Todd Monkens can get those guys. To play reasonably.
18:31Can KC Concepcion do what Ted McMillan did last year, 70 catches and 1,000 yards?
18:35I don't think that's crazy. So the 30-1 on Concepcion at least made a little sense to me.
18:41Any thoughts on what's going to happen there with Concepcion and Boston and Todd Monkens?
18:46I definitely had KC Concepcion written down. You know, we know about all the environmental issues with the Browns, but KC Concepcion
18:52could be a target machine right away. Super dynamic with the ball in his hands.
18:57He had two punt return touchdowns. Last year he won the Paul Horning Award, which recognizes basically the most versatile player in college football.
19:05There's just – everything's up for grabs. We've got a new coach.
19:08We don't really know who the quarterback's going to be.
19:11We've got a first-round pick, 30-1. You know, big-time playmaker.
19:15So I think it's fine at 30-1. Reynolds, any final thoughts here on Offensive Rookie of the Year?
19:20No, my one concern would be that you have three guys that were taking the top four picks in this race.
19:27So you're going to have to jump three blue-chip talons would be my only concern taking any long shots.
19:33But Concepcion makes sense. It does. It makes sense to me.
19:36All right, last one I'll throw out here, Evan.
19:39The people are going to hate this. Dazon Stripling is 60-1.
19:42The 49ers seem to think he was like a first-round talent.
19:46Ricky Pearsall has struggled to stay healthy. Mike Evans, at this point in his career, I think is a big injury risk.
19:53And you get this crazy efficiency when you play for Kyle Shanahan.
19:56So, you know, I don't feel great about it, but 60-1 on Stripling at least made some sense.
20:02Any final thoughts on that or any other final O-R-O-Y thoughts, Evan?
20:06I'll just throw out another nutty one, and that is Zachariah Branch at 75-1.
20:10And he only needs to get past journeymen Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus for regular playing time on offense.
20:16He's already generated some buzz at OTAs. 4-3-5 speed, was a home run hitting return guy in college.
20:21You know, I mean, Zachariah Branch ain't going to win this, but if you want to have a little bit of fun, 75-1, why not?
20:29Yeah, and like returns can matter in this race, right?
20:32Like if he runs a couple back for touchdowns, that I guess could matter too.
20:37But yeah, he would be like the lightest guy that I've ever bet on in my entire life probably, Zachariah Branch.
20:44Okay, let's stick with the rookies here. We'll go to defensive rookie of the year.
20:48This was an outlier what happened last year, Ryan.
20:51Typically, this award goes to whoever gets the most sacks as a rookie, basically.
20:55That is not what happened last year. Carson Schwestinger, Browns linebacker, won it.
20:59Nick Imanowari finished second. Schwestinger only had two and a half sacks, but he had the sixth most tackles, just raw tackles in the entire NFL.
21:08And I guess that's what won him the award.
21:10Reynolds thought someone happened last year with defensive rookie of the year.
21:14Yeah, you know, just like a very, very good linebacker season.
21:17Darius Leonard years ago is probably the one it reminds me most of.
21:22That was the last time a non-first round pick didn't win the defensive rookie of the year.
21:27I wouldn't really comp Schwestinger's win the Kukleys because Kukle was, I think, like the ninth pick.
21:32So just like, and again, like two Browns winning awards last year was a bit weird too.
21:37But, you know, Abdul Carter didn't really have sack numbers.
21:41And, you know, the guy in the Falcons, some off-field issues.
21:44So James Pierce. Yeah. Yes. Yes. James Pierce. So that's, you know, definitely.
21:48I would not, like you said, I primarily bet on pass rushers.
21:52I pay attention now to corners, first round corners that are doing well analytically to see if they rise.
21:58But I, this is still a pass rusher race for me.
22:01For sure. And the market reflects that, right? So as we turn to this year's race, Ruben Bain is the favorite.
22:08David Bailey is right there. Arvell Reese, Sonny Stiles, all are the favorites there.
22:12Reynolds thoughts on the 2026 version of defensive rookie of the year.
22:16I think David Bailey at plus 500 is actually pretty solid.
22:19You know, second overall pick pass rusher. The one caveat that I have is he doesn't really have a lot of help on that front.
22:27So teams can game plan around, game plan around him if he gets hot.
22:31Arvell Reese reminds me of, how will I frame this?
22:34When Micah Parsons was a cowboy, I'll say 85% Micah Parsons.
22:38I don't think he's quite as good as Micah Parsons, but he's a guy who could approach 80 tackles as an off-ball
22:45linebacker that's going to get pass rush reps too.
22:47So that makes him a very, very interesting candidate.
22:50And Josh Downs is a cowboy and an elite player.
22:53So people are going to see him play. And if he has interceptions in the right moments, he's going to be a factor too.
23:01Yeah, Caleb Downs. I love Josh Downs also, but yes, referring to Caleb Downs.
23:05Evan, any thoughts on defensive rookie of the year?
23:08Well, you know, Reynolds kind of shot down my thesis on this guy already as an outlier, but Jacob Rodriguez is in
23:15a very, very similar situation to what Carson Swechinger was in last year as a guy who has a chance at a million tackles on a bad team.
23:24So I kind of, I'm just kind of, how could we find this year's Carson Swechinger?
23:29Now, now is this an outlier? Yeah, probably. But I mean, he does check those boxes.
23:33Jacob Rodriguez is like a freak athlete. He went to UVA as a true freshman.
23:38They were giving him carries and catches. He transfers to Texas Tech.
23:42You want to talk about a guy who's won awards before?
23:45Jacob Rodriguez won the Butkus Award, the Bednarik Award, the Nagurski Award, the Lombardi Award, was the Big 12 Defensive Player of
23:52the Year, and finished fifth in Heisman voting last season.
23:55So, he's got awards all over his wall. And, you know, again, kind of an outlier, but I do think he could,
24:02he could compete for the league, league and tackles on a bad team.
24:06Yeah. And so the Dolphins are going to win, you know, three or four games.
24:11I think to, to Reynolds point, yes, I agree.
24:14Swechinger was an outlier, but the market is not adjusted.
24:17In other words, all the favorites are still the pass rushers, you know?
24:21And so the market is not saying, oh, now this is a linebacker award, and we're going to make Jacob Rodriguez 10 to one.
24:28He's 22 to one. You can probably find longer prices out there on Jacob Rodriguez than that as well.
24:34I don't really have many takes here. I feel like this is more of like a defensive ball knower market than one that is more up my alley.
24:43So Reynolds, any other thoughts on defensive or good year, or shall we move on?
24:48Evan sold me a little bit on, on a, on a longer shot, but for me, it's generally, it's generally that cluster
24:54that I'd throw styles in there too, because people will see Washington play as well.
24:59They're a, they're a big market team. So if they're, if they're competitive, you know, eight plus wins, like we're kind of,
25:06it sounds like we're expecting them to be, I think he'll be a factor too.
25:11Evan, anything else on defensive rookie of the year, or shall we move on?
25:15All right, let's go to offensive player of the year.
25:18Of course, the market that is nearest and dearest to our heart, because what this has turned into is effectively the fantasy award.
25:25Last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba was the winner, narrowly beating out Christian McCaffrey, who won comeback player of the year.
25:32So, you know, people typically treat this award as like, who was the best fantasy player?
25:37So it's no surprise to me that this year, Reynolds, Gibbs, Bijan, Chase, Puka, CMC, JSN.
25:42Those are in ADP, the first six picks of the draft.
25:45And those are the favorites here. So Reynolds thoughts on offensive player of the year, last year, JSN and going forward this year.
25:52Yeah. The, the favorites make sense to me. Like you said, it's, it's the best fantasy player award now where historically it was kind of a mess.
26:01Like sometimes the MVP would, the MVP quarterback would double dip.
26:04Sometimes a second quarterback would be in play. Where I think for that to happen now, you're going to need very underwhelming
26:11seasons from skill position players for a quarterback to rise in this race, especially with the last two races where there were two guys in play, you know?
26:20So I'm treating it as a, as a best fantasy player award for the most part.
26:25Now I have one thing I'm going to lean into the prediction market a little bit, just trying to get some early value on a guy.
26:33O'Marion Hampton, who I don't really like as a player, but I really like his situation plus 4,000 in multiple books opens up at home against the Cardinals.
26:41And then against the Raiders, if he ran for 250 yards with four touchdowns, no surprise more again.
26:47I don't, I'm not sure he's going to take it down, but I can see him being much more expensive heading into week three.
26:55Yeah. I mean, charger stuff is certainly super interesting.
26:57Evan, any thoughts on offensive player of the year?
27:00Yeah. One of the guys that really stood out to me was Kenneth Walker, um, who just won Superbowl MVP.
27:06So we saw these same voters vote for him for Superbowl MVP.
27:10Uh, the chiefs gave him a really big contract.
27:13I think he's going to be an every down back.
27:16We're like debating, um, right now, who's going to be the number two back for the chiefs.
27:21I mean, that's why it was, is it going to be Amari Di Mercado?
27:26Is it going to be Emmett Johnson? I think at the end of the answer is going to be Kenneth Walker, um, as the true every down back.
27:34And we, we know that he has that explosive big play ability.
27:38We know that he can catch at this point in his career.
27:42Um, you know, coming out of Michigan state, that was a question mark.
27:46It's not a question mark anymore. And he could be the focal point of the chiefs offense for a while as Patrick
27:53Mahomes comes back from his knee stuff. Rasheed Rice, who knows?
27:56Travis Kelsey is awfully old. You know, we could see this Kenneth Walker as the fulcrum, the chiefs offensive focal point this season.
28:03Yeah. I like Kenneth Walker, man. I've been taking him a lot, uh, in that early round two in best ball.
28:10I think I agree with you. Kenneth Walker can catch and will catch plenty of balls.
28:15I still think that there are past protection concerns that like, you can't be out there if you're going to get Pat Mahomes killed, you know?
28:23And so if they think he's going to get Pat Mahomes killed, if they get into a two minute drill, if they
28:30get into, you know, third and long, um, it might be someone else, but I agree with you that we're going to see 300 plus touchdowns.
28:38For Kenneth Walker is 35 to one is certainly interesting there.
28:41I mean, it's ridiculous. Malik neighbors is 30 to one.
28:44He's probably going to start the year on pup or something like that.
28:48And Kenneth Walker is 35 to one. Um, a couple of guys on my mind, I had Walker on my list there at 35 to one.
28:57Also, if you stop this race Reynolds, like maybe like halfway, maybe even like 12 games in the last year, I think Jonathan Taylor would have won it.
29:05I mean, the guy was absolutely shredding was Jonathan Taylor.
29:08So I saw some torn to one out there on him.
29:12I thought that was interesting. AJ Brown at 50 to one.
29:15I talked about this on market Monday. The Patriots know what they are getting into.
29:20If you do not get the ball to AJ Brown, he will whine and be a distraction and cause problems.
29:26And they still traded for him. They still gave up a first round pick and gave him $33 million guaranteed that they picked up.
29:34So they know what they're getting into. I think the game plan is going to be get the ball to AJ Brown a ton.
29:41So for him to have the same price as Ted McMillan, like I think AJ Brown is really interesting at 50 to one.
29:48And then the long shot. I mean, what a slap in the face.
29:52Where is this guy? Where is he? Chris. Oh, I can't even find them.
29:57He's so far down. Okay. It's a hundred to one on draft Kings.
30:01I saw some 150 to one Chris. Alave man with Kellen Moore.
30:04All these dome games, shootouts on defense, better office line, all the stuff we've talked about with the saints already to get
30:11151, hundred to one on a lava. I think you'll be able to get, he might not win it, but it's like the stuff Reynolds is talking about.
30:20I think you'll get a better number than that.
30:23At some point this season on a lava, if you want to get out from it.
30:28So that was who was on my list. JT Walker, AJ Brown and a lava Reynolds.
30:33Any thoughts on those guys or anyone else you want to mention?
30:36Yeah, I definitely think a lobby again, leaning into prediction markets.
30:40That makes sense. Like I can't wait to dive into that more.
30:44That's, you know, kind of my wheelhouse. Those finding those, those like short-term margins really love Walker and AJ Brown makes it on a sense to me too.
30:52So I'm on board with both of those. All right.
30:55Evan, any other OPO Y you want to talk about?
30:58Brock Bowers, previous award winners. He won the Mackey award twice in college.
31:03And as a rookie, Brock Bowers was the first team all pro again, same voters that vote here was the first team all pro tight end.
31:11That is incredible for a rookie to, to be the first team all pro tight end.
31:1680 to one, you know, very little competition for past catching targets.
31:19I think the 80 to one, I mean, this, this is a cinch bet for a long shot.
31:25Devante Smith, I think is at least mildly interesting.
31:28It's 70 to one. He won the Blitnikoff award in the Heisman at Alabama.
31:32We're removing AJ Brown, the offensive, the passing game should be focused on Devante Smith.
31:37Dallas Goddard is getting up there. So I think that those guys, and I also think that a Mecca at Buka is at least a little bit interesting.
31:45He could start hot right along with Baker Mayfield as Ryan Reynolds described at the top.
31:50And I also think that it's very much in play for a Mecca at Buka to have a second year, similar to JSN.
31:58You know, those, those guys scouting reports were very similar coming out of Ohio state.
32:02JSN had a hundred catches in his second year.
32:05And of course, one OPOY last year, Mecca at Buka, who I'm trying to be, I'm trying to stay ahead of market
32:12in terms of ADP and fantasy this year. Yeah.
32:15I thought about Brock Bowers when I was looking at this, because I want to be on the Clint Kubiak stuff.
32:21Like I'm a big believer that Clint Kubiak is going to make a big difference for this Raiders team.
32:27I guess my concern on Bowers is like, can tight end win this award?
32:32Do you, what type of season does a tight end actually need?
32:35Like even the McBride season last year, he didn't sniff it.
32:39And that was an outrageous McBride season. So I don't know, Reynolds, what do you think about Bowers and the tight end chances of winning this award?
32:47I'm with Evan on Bowers. I'm very bullish. Like if he led the league in receptions, it really wouldn't blow me away.
32:54My, my bigger concerns actually for the Raiders and be a playoff team because team success has been a factor in this race at this point.
33:02So that, that would be my one pushback against it.
33:05Okay. Anything else on OPOY before we move on?
33:08All right, let's go to defensive player of the year where, I mean, I thought I was going to retire for a
33:15little bit last year when Benito was like going nuts at the beginning.
33:19I mean, I had a lot on Benito at like 60 to one, 70 to one.
33:24I was like, man, this is, this is actually getting exciting.
33:27Unfortunately, it didn't work out. Now we get him back.
33:30If you want to bet Benito this year, it's 14 to one, but he was never going to win last year because miles Garrett broke the sack record.
33:39If you break the sack record, you're going to win the award is what it is.
33:44Reynolds thoughts on what happened last year in DPOY and any other DPOY thoughts.
33:48Yeah. Like you said, you break the sack record.
33:51It doesn't matter what your team's record is. If Micah Parsons doesn't go down, maybe it becomes a little bit more interesting,
33:58but you know, again, sack record, it is what it is.
34:01I have, I mentioned Dexter Lawrence in my last column at 500 to one.
34:06I think, I think it was just as he went to the, to the bangles.
34:11I thought that was absurd. He's set plus 1750, 500 right now.
34:14I still would do it at that. Two years ago, he was in the hunt until he got hurt.
34:20He was on a bad team. The bangles we've, we've talked about it.
34:24We think the bangles can be a plus team.
34:27They can be a competitive team, team success, best defensive tackle in football.
34:31Again, I would still bet it at that price.
34:34And I don't like the negative press Abdul Carter's gotten, but he really surged late in the year last year.
34:40And if the giants are a playoff team, I think he's going to be in the mix here too.
34:46Yeah. Abdul Carter was also on my list. 70 to one here on DK.
34:50He got a little bit banged up at OTAs, but Ronan already reported that he's going to be fine.
34:56And they're not worried about it. So yeah, I thought Abdul Carter just on raw talent alone.
35:02When Abdul Carter was at Penn state, I mean, he was like freakishly dominant.
35:06I mean, really freakishly dominant. 70 to one is interesting there.
35:09Evan, any thoughts on defensive player of the year?
35:12The one that stuck out to me was Micah Parsons at 50 to one.
35:16And I understand that he's probably not going to play until maybe week three or week four.
35:22But again, I think that by week 18, like let's say he racks up 17 sacks.
35:27Voters are not going to care that he missed the first three or four games of the season.
35:32I guess this is an opportunity to bet on Micah Parsons to win defensive player of the year at 50 to one.
35:39You know, I don't think we're, we may never get this opportunity again.
35:43Also a history of winning awards. He was the NFL defensive rookie of the year, three time first team, all pro, but kiss award.
35:51You know, he is an award winning player. And if he can get his legs underneath him, you know, in the second
35:58month of the month of the season and just go absolutely berserk the rest of the way, we know that he, you
36:04know, he's capable of doing that 50 to one for Micah Parsons.
36:08Please give it to me. Yeah. Current timeline that I've seen on Micah Parsons is like mid October is what they're talking about for Parsons.
36:16It's very early to be giving timelines on him.
36:19The one thing that I will say though, about injury stuff, and we'll get to come back player of the year in
36:26a second, guys are coming back from clean ACL tears, like faster, stronger, better than ever.
36:31And so I don't want to get too clouded on a guy like that, but yeah, he's going to miss time.
36:37Like, I don't know Reynolds, if you know, do you have to lead the league in sacks?
36:42If you're Micah Parsons, like it, it seems like you might have to actually lead the league in sacks to win defensive player of the year.
36:50These days, generally, like there's been exceptions, like Trey Henderson, Hendrickson a few years ago did it and didn't win.
36:57I'm glad you brought up Parsons. Cause like I sweated on this a little bit.
37:01Cause one, he's going to win one of these, you know, I don't know if it's this year or next year, but mid October, that would be tough.
37:10But like you said, Evan, especially like if he really goes nuts late, like if he goes nuts in the, in the
37:17final, final month of the season, he ends up with 16 and green Bay makes the playoffs.
37:22Like he's, he's going to be in the hunt.
37:25He is. All right. Anything else for you guys on defensive player of the year?
37:30You want a really nutty idea. I don't even know if he's on the board.
37:34Aaron Donald. Oh yeah. I love it. He is not on the board.
37:38He's not on the board. But we, the people haven't gotten your take on the miles Garrett trade.
37:44Evan, I'm curious what you thought about the Rams decision to give up Jared verse and go get miles Garrett.
37:50I mean, you know, trades really are, they're meant, they're intended for both sides to benefit.
37:55And I think it makes sense for both sides.
37:58I love what the Browns got. I mean, Jared versed a one, two and a three.
38:03You know, I love that for the Browns and I understand what the Rams are trying to do.
38:09I think that they gave up a crap load, but I also understand.
38:13I mean, he's the best defensive player in the league and you might get back Aaron Donald.
38:18It sounds like they're getting back Aaron Donald because of this.
38:21Yeah. I mean, Schefter reported today, this morning that he thinks there is a greater chance than not that Aaron Donald returns
38:28to the Rams here as they try to go get Matthew Stafford here.
38:32Superbowl in this window. Hopefully Ty Simpson can learn how to play left tackle because they might need one of those.
38:39All right. Let's go to the market that has given me the most fits through the years.
38:44Coach of the year. Mike Vrabel won last year.
38:47It was just like a classic case for Vrabel.
38:50First year coach, first year in New England. We know quarterback.
38:53We know their quarterback was insanely talented. We knew the Patriots had one of the softest schedule in the NFL.
38:59It was just like an easy one. I don't think the odds ever got long on Vrabel Reynolds.
39:05Like he was one of the favorites at the beginning.
39:08Everybody knew that this crazy soft schedule. Everyone knew they had Drake May.
39:12They executed and he won it. So thoughts on what happened last year, coach of the year Reynolds and any thoughts going forward?
39:19Yeah, super. I would say last year was the deepest coach of the year race that I've covered.
39:25And you, like you said, Vrabel was always in, always among the favorites.
39:29The whole season never really deviated from that. I realistically think five different, maybe even six different guys could have, could have won.
39:36But for me, I've always treated it like exceeds expectation award.
39:39Most of the time, it's your team was sub 500 last year.
39:43They make the playoffs this year, but it can also be a rut of injuries that you overcome.
39:49I don't look for that because we can't predict that.
39:52That's, you know, crystal ball stuff. I have, I have two names.
39:56One, we've talked about Washington a few times. I think Dan Quinn at plus 2800.
40:00It's a very good value. I do think Jaden Daniels would get the lion's share of the credit if Washington returns, you
40:07know, to prominence, but I think he's mispriced. And one that I'm actually thrilled to talk about, because this is a very,
40:14very broken award as we've talked about over the years.
40:17Andy Rita plus 6000. Kansas City was six and 11 last year.
40:21You're getting my homes coming off an injury. So if they have to get creative and schematically early on in the season
40:28two and Kansas City wins 11, 12 games, he's only won one of these.
40:32Well, guys like Kevin Stefanski and Ron Rivera have won two.
40:35So if guys like John Harbaugh fail, like say the giants don't make the playoffs and a few other people in that
40:42cluster, I think reads very, very interesting at plus 6000.
40:45It's such a messed up award because like, if your team's always good, you can't win it.
40:51Andy reads teams are always good. He can't win.
40:54I think Kyle Shanahan has been the best coach in the NFL in a number of seasons.
40:59He can't get any votes, right? Cause his team is always good.
41:03So it's certainly a broken award in that sense.
41:05Evan, any thoughts on coach of the year? Yeah, I got three ideas.
41:09The first is Clint Kubiak. Um, a lot for the same reasons that I talked about Fernando Mendoza as a potential award
41:16winner, Clint Kubiak, a 20 to one. I mean, if he can turn the Raiders into even like a 500 team or,
41:23or, or sneak into the playoffs, which I mean, what almost half the league makes the playoff these days anyways, um, that would be massive for him.
41:31We know that he's an awesome offensive coach. We saw that in new Orleans.
41:36We saw that in Seattle. He doesn't have a ton to work with, but if he can somehow get this team to
41:43go nine and eight, uh, I think that he belongs in the conversation.
41:47And then Liam Cohen almost won it last year.
41:50I think he finished second. Yeah. He had 16 first place votes last year.
41:54Maybe he's sort of starting behind the eight ball because the Jaguars were a winning team last year, but we we've seen
42:01recently, you know, voters vote for him for this award.
42:04A lot of them. And then Ben Johnson, and these guys are a little bit longer shots, but Ben Johnson, I mean,
42:11he was, I know that Reynolds was just talking about, you know, six guys, maybe deserving.
42:16Ben Johnson was just as deserving as any of them.
42:19And if, if he can get, you know, the bears to the promised land this year, you know, I think that he
42:26at least deserves a bunch of votes. Uh, I mentioned Ben Johnson earlier when we were talking about the Caleb stuff.
42:32I think Ben Johnson 25 to one is super interesting because the narrative in the public domain amongst these media members is
42:39Ben Johnson is just like a genius. And he is the pure reason that the bears are turning it around.
42:45And so when a coach starts to get credit like that before the season even starts, it's really interesting to me.
42:52The problem is that they made the playoffs last year.
42:55Right. And so like, it's really hard to win this award.
42:58If your team made the playoffs last year, you'll have to be really, really, really good.
43:03Like 13 or 14 games maybe. But yeah, I thought that was interesting.
43:07The bet that I made already like a month ago and the line didn't move, which, uh, you know, no respect for
43:14me, but Kevin O'Connell at 30 to one, the credit he's going to get.
43:19Like, I think nothing was wrong with Kevin O'Connell or the Vikings last year.
43:23What was wrong is JJ McCarthy sucks, right? Period.
43:26That's it. And so you remove him. Who's going to get the credit.
43:30I don't think anyone really should, but KOC probably will.
43:33Like if Kyler comes in and plays well, I think Kevin O'Connell is going to get a ton of credit there.
43:39And they were bad last year. Didn't make the playoffs.
43:43So 30 to one on KOC, uh, is one that I took.
43:46I wanted to take Kellen Moore, but God, 12 to one on Kellen Moore Reynolds.
43:51Like in this market, it moves so much just on wins and losses.
43:55If you just wait till like the saints go on a two game losing streak, you'll probably get a better number than this.
44:02And that's why this award really pisses me off.
44:05It's not really about the best coach. It's just like wins and who was bad last year.
44:10So yeah. Any thoughts on those Reynolds, KOC, Kellen Moore, anything else on coach of year?
44:15I really liked that whole cluster. Quinn Campbell and KOC.
44:18I think all, I think they all have a path and they're all well-priced to your point with Kellen Moore.
44:25I a hundred percent agree. I either bet on long shots now, or I wait till the final four weeks and I
44:31try to catch someone with the right schedule run.
44:34But like you said, if, if the saints start off, Oh, and two Kellen Moore is a guy who could be plus 2,800 at the end of that.
44:43So he, I couldn't, he's interesting, very winnable division, good situation.
44:46Plus 1200 is too much for me. Yeah. Okay.
44:49Anything else for you guys at coach of the year?
44:52All right. Let's go to comeback player of the year.
44:55So it seems like finally the market understands the criteria for this award.
44:59It is not coming back from sucking. That is no longer eligible within the criteria to win this award.
45:05You have to be coming back from a legitimate injury.
45:08There are some very good players coming back from legitimate injuries this year, last year, comeback player of the year went to Christian McCaffrey in a landslide.
45:17I mean, no one else was even close. Remember in 2024, McCaffrey had that weird Achilles tendonitis thing.
45:22He also had a PCL sprain comes back and obviously shreds last year.
45:26It feels kind of similar this year. Reynolds, where we know Patrick Mahomes is one of the best players in the NFL
45:33and he's coming off an injury and you get him here at two to one, really, really, really short in this market.
45:40So Reynolds, what do you think about comeback player of the year?
45:44I can't quite call it a quarterback market, but you know, last year, McCaffrey was the first running back to win since Garrison Hurst.
45:51And I think 2002, if memory serves, uh, quarterbacks win more often than not in the last decade or so.
45:58So I lean towards it being a quarterback award team success matters.
46:01You're going to have to make the playoffs or be above 500.
46:05I would love Kyler Murray in this race because he's the perfect situation because not only is he coming off an injury,
46:12but he still has the sucks narrative. So he could, he could get both, but it's going to be very, very hard
46:19to be Patrick Mahomes if he's, if he plays from the, from the jump this year.
46:24So I'm staying away from this one currently, which is unfortunate because there's a few interesting guys on here.
46:30I mean, Mahomes coming back from injury. Jane and Daniels coming back from injury.
46:34Kyler Murray, Micah Parsons coming back from injury. Kittle's talking about playing week one.
46:38I'll get to him in a second. There's a lot of options in this race, but man, if Patrick Mahomes plays week
46:45one or week two and he plays up to his, you know, average standard, it's going to be really hard to beat him.
46:52Like Reynolds said, so have any thoughts on comeback player deer?
46:56Yeah. I mean, you need a quarterback who's going to outplay Patrick Mahomes, right?
47:00I mean, so I do think that that's not crazy.
47:03I think that Jaden Daniels could do that at a hundred percent.
47:07He's not coming off the knee injury. The Patrick Mahomes is, you know, he certainly is more dynamic as a runner.
47:13I kind of like Jaden Daniels, but it's not, you know, it's, it's pretty short odds.
47:18And I kind of like Kyler Murray, but I don't think that he's going to outplay Patrick Mahomes and he's only six to one.
47:26So yeah, this, I didn't love this market. On the Kittle stuff.
47:30So there is 30 to one out there on Kittle.
47:33I believe him. Like, I don't know what you guys think.
47:36I believe him that he's ahead of schedule and going to play in September.
47:41I don't think he's going to play week one in Australia, but week two, week three, week four, Kittle comes back.
47:47Is it crazy to think that he can catch 10, 11 touchdowns if he plays the full season here coming off an Achilles tear?
47:55Everybody loves Kittle. I mean, the media loves him.
47:57Girls love him. Dudes love him. Everybody loves George Kittle.
48:00So at 30, I had the 20 to one.
48:03I don't know. 30 to one. I thought was interesting on Kittle.
48:07If you believe like me, that he's actually be back here in September sometime off the Achilles tear.
48:13So that was a long shot on my board.
48:15Any thoughts on that or anything else you guys want to get to at comeback player of the year?
48:21Well, I have a, I have a quick hit on this to, to Evan's point about Parsons and the defensive player of the year market.
48:29If my homes Daniels and Murray are kind of middling through September and Parsons dips to like 35 to one land, I'm
48:36going to definitely be writing about him in the column at that point.
48:40Yep. And you can catch Ryan's column bi-weekly, right?
48:43Ryan, bi-weekly on the site in part of the in season product there for Ryan's updates throughout the year.
48:49And again, with prediction markets, like it's so much more liquid now and moving in and out of positions.
48:55It's just, it's a really, really good market to be in if you're trying to earn.
49:00All right. That's it for awards. Before we get out of here, I just want to talk about a couple futures at the team level.
49:07First one I wanted to talk about is some of this odds to win division stuff.
49:12Let me see if I can tech Lord here.
49:15Yes. So AMC South. I thought the Jaguars were the best team last year.
49:20Now, the Texans have this outrageously strong defense, but another year of Liam Cohen with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars are so loaded at the skill positions.
49:28I thought the plus 245 on them was interesting.
49:30Evan, any thoughts on Jaguars or AFC South market right now?
49:34Yeah. Jaguars look okay. Um, I hadn't put a ton of time into, you know, looking at the, at the AFC South
49:41as you obviously did here, Adam Levitan. Um, but, uh, yeah, Jaguars look all right.
49:45Okay. Let me get to one that maybe you've looked at more since you're the biggest bears fan.
49:51Will you stop? I know. This is fake news.
49:54There is some plus 325 out there on the bears.
49:57That is the third choice. This is a very tough division.
50:00Lions plus 180 Packers plus two 15. If you are to be believed that Caleb Williams is the second coming, that Ben
50:07Johnson is the second coming, they can overcome this defensive issue.
50:11And again, there's plus 325 out there, which to win the division is relatively long.
50:15Thoughts on that, Evan? Yeah. I mean, I, I think that the bears are firmly in square to, you know, firmly in play to win this division.
50:24It's just like the toughest division in the NFL.
50:26Yeah. So I don't feel great betting on this one.
50:30I know that Reynolds did have a take on the lions though, that I thought was pretty interesting.
50:35The lions had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
50:39Of course they play in the toughest division in the NFL, but if you go down their schedule, they have a ton
50:45of cupcakes outside of the division, but I want to hear Reynolds take on, on the lions.
50:51Yeah. The schedule is a little scary. I'll definitely readily admit that.
50:54But like you said, the division, everyone's good in the division.
50:58Now I think Chicago is a team that wins 10 games a year.
51:02Plus going forward. Green Bay is still a very tough out.
51:05I think Detroit's the third best team in the division.
51:08I don't think they got better. I think they are what they are, which is a good offense that does not have
51:15their, does not have Ben Johnson anymore. So I'm not really expecting like a jump from that.
51:21And they have a mediocre defense. So will they beat up on some of those cupcakes?
51:26Yes, but I like under 10 and a half because if they beat that, they're going to beat it small, 11, 12 wins top.
51:33So I'm, I think they are what they are now.
51:36I think they're at a nine, 10 win team.
51:39Yeah. And I mean, you can do the correlated stuff with this, right?
51:43Like lions under 10 and a half wins bears to win.
51:46Their division is obviously like really, really correlated there as well.
51:50Oh, you know, I got plus three 20 on this a while ago.
51:54I talked about it on the podcast. You can still get, there is some plus three 20 on saints to win the NFC South out there.
52:02I think that's on fanatics, but yeah, I mean, we've talked about the saints so much.
52:07I'm like already tired of talking about this, but yes, I think the saints will win the NFC South.
52:13And there's like some three to one out there as well, which strikes me as very, very good there on Kellen Moore's saints.
52:20Yeah. God, I hope we're right about the saints this year because we got a big position on them.
52:26I mean, Oh, we, we have planted our flag and it's June 9th.
52:30There's also saints plus two 20 plus 200 to make the playoffs.
52:34And then if you really want to get nutty saints to win the NFC, I got 70 to one, but there is
52:4150 to one out there on the saints to win the NFC and go to Superbowl.
52:46Okay. Speaking of Superbowl, I already gave my Joe Burrow take.
52:49There is 22 to one roughly on Bengals to win the Superbowl.
52:53You know, defense is probably not good enough to win the Superbowl, man, but I just have so much respect for Joe Burrow.
53:00Like I think he can be the best quarterback in the NFL.
53:04If you're going to give me the best quarterback in the NFL at 22 to one to win the Superbowl, I'm probably
53:10going to take a nibble, you know? So that was one that I took.
53:15Uh, Reynolds, any thoughts on Superbowl or any other team level futures you wanted to mention?
53:20Yeah, it's, it's odd. Like I think the bears year will be next year.
53:24So I'm going to pass on the bears this year, which means I think it's Rams and I haven't decided with JFC team.
53:31I'm tossing actually between Baltimore, Cincinnati. So I haven't, I haven't arrived at a final destination there yet, but it's going to
53:38be Rams, Ravens or Rams Bengals for me. Yeah.
53:41All right. Evan, any final thoughts on futures or the Bengals before we get out of here?
53:46No, we covered it. All right. That's going to do it for our first look at the awards markets for 20, 20, 26 NFL.
53:54Be sure you stay tuned to establish the run.com.
53:57Reynolds writes about this throughout the summer. And then of course, during the season, check it out in discord as well.
54:03What's the channel where you guys talk about the futures, uh, in discord Reynolds.
54:07Uh, I talk about survivor, a lot in survivor channel.
54:11So I would actually say if you have a, an awards market question, pop in the survivor pool channel this year.
54:17All right. And of course, be sure you are subscribed here on YouTube.
54:21It is indeed free for Silva for Reynolds. For producer Ryan, for producer Luke.
54:25I'm Adam. Good luck. Everybody.