PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: Josh Jacobs Allegations, Patrick Mahomes Injury, And More (Episode 985 with Adam Levitan)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 1, 2026
Published
Mon, June 1, 2026
4
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Jacoby BrissettJosh JacobsNico CollinsPatrick Mahomes
Player analysis
Player insights
Jacoby Brissett
NegativeDepth Chart0:00
Jacoby Brissett has dropped 4.3 spots to 164 overall due to his holdout and uncertainty about his starting role with the Cardinals. The expectation is that he won't be the starter late in the season.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeInjury0:27
Josh Jacobs has fallen 10 spots to 39 overall due to serious domestic violence allegations and concerns about his declining performance. The potential for a suspension adds to the risk of drafting him.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue0:32
Nico Collins has risen 2.2 spots to 23 overall, showcasing his strong performance metrics despite shaky quarterback play. His high floor and potential for a breakout season make him a solid bet at this ADP.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection0:13
Patrick Mahomes has fallen 3.9 spots to 92 overall, raising concerns about his ability to scramble post-knee surgery and his overall fantasy production. There are cleaner quarterback options available at his ADP.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 985 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:15Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:25The idea is simple, give you an idea of what the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:34Reminder that if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and the Underdog Best Ball
0:42flagships last year for $2 million each, you need the ETR Best Ball product.
0:48Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason all the sharpest people upload our rankings is because they know how hard we grind every
0:56shred of information to ensure our uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible.
1:01Our Best Ball product is just $60, renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to EstablishTheRun.com for details.
1:09Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume in best ball, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant.
1:18That's what Sam Shepard, the DK winner, did last year.
1:22Link to the Solver Draft Assistant is in the best ball tab on EstablishTheRun.com.
1:27All right, going to start with the risers from the last seven days.
1:32First up, Nico Collins up 2.2 spots to 23 overall.
1:36I'm not sure the general public realizes how good Nico Collins is.
1:40Last three years, amongst all wide receivers in yards per route run, Nico Collins finished 10th, 2nd, and 2nd.
1:48Last three years, Nico is third in yards per target on a lot of volume, 7.8 targets per game.
1:55In the last two years, that's come with shaky quarterback play, shaky scheme.
2:00So yeah, I get that Nico has not had one of these insane Puka Nakua, Jamar Chase, JSN, Justin Jefferson, Amon Ross St.
2:09Brown type seasons. Maybe he can't have that because the Texans are such a strong defensive team, the quarterback play.
2:17But he's still been so absurdly good in fantasy despite this.
2:21And so my point is that even if you think CJ Stroud sucks, Nick Kaley doesn't know what he's doing.
2:29Still, the floor on Nico is so high. And if three, let's say things break right, CJ Stroud regains his rookie year form.
2:38Defense has injuries and regresses. There's more shootouts. Then you could get a really big season from Nico.
2:45Now, it sucks that with Rasheed Rice and the Malik Nabers situations I outlined last week, and now Josh Jacobs, which I'll
2:53get to in a minute, people are backing off Trey McBride for the reasons that Sylvan and I discussed on the Rankings release show last week.
3:03Because of all that, Nico Collins is rising. So I don't think he's like a windmill, but I think he's a solid bet here at 23 overall.
3:14I do prefer Nico Collins to George Pickens in that range, assuming CeeDee Lamb sustains health.
3:20And I also think Chris Alave is right there with those guys as well.
3:25But yeah, I do prefer Nico over those two back end of round two.
3:31Second riser, Greg Dolchich, up 2.2 spots to 210 overall.
3:35We have this really weird dynamic with the Dolphins where we expect them to be terrible, like easily the worst team in the NFL.
3:44But we also expect them to be really run heavy given their best players, De'Von Achane, Malik Willis.
3:51That's difficult to square, right? Like you're down 24 to 3.
3:55How much can you really run the ball? And we've also never seen Malik Willis play from behind, playing in known passing situations.
4:04The sample was, I thought he threw it really well last year.
4:09The sample was so small, 35 pass attempts. But anyways, my point is that if the Dolphins play this straight, if they
4:17play it like we're down 24 to 3, we're going to throw a ton.
4:22In those scenarios, I actually think Dolchich is very interesting, given the lack of competition in the wide receiver room.
4:30And Dolchich fills the tight end spot, but he's really a wide receiver, you know, similar to a Mike Kosicki or Eli
4:39Stowers, effectively a tight end in name only. And Dolchich is still only 26, by the way.
4:45So if you made me bet on who will lead the Dolphins' wide receivers and tight ends in receiving yards this year,
4:54I think the most likely candidate is Dolchich. I'd still take Malik Washington, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas.
5:00I think I'd take those guys higher in a vacuum because the ceiling is so much higher.
5:07But Dolchich has the tight end eligibility. And so I really do like him as a late tight end on Malik Willis' teams.
5:16And of course, I'm taking a ton of Malik Willis, where he goes right now.
5:22Third riser, Stephon Diggs, up 3.9 spots to 139 overall.
5:25Stephon Diggs remains on the street as a free agent.
5:29But there was some news a few weeks ago.
5:33Diggs found not guilty in court. He was accused of assaulting and strangling his live-in chef.
5:39Steph, since then, since he got that acquittal, he's back.
5:43He's posting videos of him doing these like quick jerk push-ups.
5:47He looked to be simulating the sex to me, but okay, at least he's working out.
5:53Seems to be in decent shape. So the ADP is rising in anticipation of Steph Diggs signing somewhere.
6:00There's certainly a lot of good landing spots for him.
6:04Perhaps the latest Rishi Rice mess prompts the Chiefs to take a look at Stephon Diggs.
6:10Commanders need a ton of wide receiver help. Ravens, Bills, I think are options.
6:16So I think Diggs is going to sign and get a decent role somewhere.
6:21A better question to me is how much does he have left in the tank?
6:27Diggs turns 33 in November. Average depth of target has been really low the last two years.
6:33He's really just a short area possession receiver, which is tough in fantasy.
6:38You need so much volume. And Diggs got that volume last year in New England, turned 102 targets into 85 catches, over 1,000 yards, four touchdowns.
6:49So I do think Diggs' ADP will rise when he signs.
6:53That's just like what always happens when these guys sign.
6:57But I don't really think that it should. Even if Diggs ends up in Kansas City or Washington, I doubt we'd get
7:05higher than like 140 overall in our ranks. So I have not been taking shots on him.
7:12Market seems very woke to the idea that Diggs is going to sign and sign somewhere decent, considering he's up at 139 overall right now.
7:21All right, let's get to this week's fallers. First one is the big one of the week.
7:28Josh Jacobs down 10 spots to 39 overall. I already had some mild concerns around Jacobs before last week's domestic violence accusation.
7:36Jacobs is 28 years old, ton of tread on his tires, over 1,800 carries in the NFL, plus 269 catches.
7:44Jacobs did not have a single 100-yard rushing game last season.
7:48He only had three runs of 20-plus yards all year on 234 carries.
7:53For reference, Derek Henry led the league with 17 carries of 20-plus yards.
7:58Last year, he had 307 total carries. So I was already kind of squeamish on Josh Jacobs.
8:05Now comes these ugly domestic violence allegations. Worth noting, Jacobs is denying these charges or allegations vehemently, but he was arrested on
8:14domestic abuse battery, domestic abuse criminal damage to property, domestic abuse disorderly conduct.
8:19Strangulation and suffocation and intimidation of a victim. He was released from jail.
8:24The investigation is ongoing. I'm a big innocent until proven guilty guy, but something about this isn't sitting right with me.
8:32Like there's a 911 call. There is a neighbor calling 911.
8:36There is Jacobs leaving the scene. Schefter is hinting about the Ray Rice situation, talking about other options at running back for the Packers.
8:45So I don't know. I'm no lawyer, but my gut is just there's a lot of smoke here.
8:52The other part of this is that under the personal conduct policy, the NFL will conduct their own investigation.
9:00And the NFL can suspend the player even if he isn't convicted.
9:04In fact, the NFL can suspend even if a guy doesn't get charged.
9:09And the baseline suspension for domestic violence is six games.
9:13Could be more. And if Jacobs is charged with a violent crime, NFL can put him on the commissioner's exempt list.
9:21So I know it's tempting to try to buy the dip here on Jacobs.
9:27I've seen him last until the late 40s in some drafts.
9:31Maybe the investigation shows nothing. Maybe a suspension is pushed out until 2027.
9:36At 40 overall, I'm still passing here on Jacobs.
9:39Like Javante Williams is there. Some really good wide receivers is there.
9:44But when you get closer to 50, where Bucky Irving, Quinchon Junkins types are going, I'll gamble there on Jacobs for now.
9:53We'll see what news comes out this week. Second follower, Jacoby Brissett down 4.3 spots to 164 overall on DraftKings.
10:00This is due to Brissett's holdout. Cardinals reportedly told Brissett he's their starter, but he's only scheduled to make $4 million this year.
10:09Doesn't matter how much you suck or the team sucks.
10:13Starting quarterbacks cost NFL teams $20 million plus, period.
10:16So I actually think that Brissett is right to hold out.
10:21Regardless, we've been massively lower than market on Brissett this whole time.
10:25And that's because we don't expect him to be the starter late in the season.
10:31We expect to see Carson Beck at some point.
10:35And we also don't expect the Cardinals to play this season like last season.
10:40You know, just get behind Massive and then drop back a zillion times.
10:45That was just so unique. Now we have a new coaching staff.
10:50Maybe they don't want to play it like that.
10:53Of course, there's some runouts, right? NFL is crazy unpredictable.
10:57There's some runouts where Brissett gets a deal done.
11:01Cardinals surprised. They're competitive. Brissett keeps the job all year.
11:04Just think that's kind of an unlikely outcome. And so in best ball, where weeks 15 through 17 are really all that
11:13matter, just can't take Brissett here at 164. I know people are desperate to get a third quarterback.
11:20But like the fact that Malik Willis is going just 34 spots ahead of Jacoby Brissett is pure insanity to me.
11:28And again, I know I've mentioned this a few times.
11:32I think the right strategy is ADP sits right now is more elite quarterback builds, more two quarterback builds, rather than trying
11:40to force three quarterback if it's not there. I just did my first 555 live draft of the season on DraftKings.
11:48I might write about it if I have time, but I took Jayden Daniels, and Malik Willis, and kind of stopped there.
11:57And given where Jaden and Malik goes, I really like that.
12:01I really like that. And so I didn't feel a need to force something like a Brissett on late.
12:09Third and final faller this week is Patrick Mahomes, down 3.9 spots to 92 overall.
12:14I'm a little surprised Mahomes is falling, given he participated in May OTAs, just five and a half months removed from knee surgery.
12:23There's been, I'd say, positive vibes around his ACL recovery the whole way.
12:28You know, videos of him dropping back, throwing, playing golf.
12:32It's far from a lock, but at this point, I'm playing it as if Mahomes will be out there week one.
12:40Remember that the NFL made Broncos at Chiefs the first Monday night football game of the season?
12:47I doubt they would do that if it was likely to be Justin Fields on their center for the Chiefs.
12:55The bigger question to me isn't about week one.
12:58It's about Mahomes' ability to scramble off this injury.
13:02And his willingness to do so. Because the last three years, Mahomes has not been elite fantasy quarterback via throwing.
13:09Like last year, a huge part of his fantasy production was that he averaged 4.6 carries for 30 yards and .34 rushing touchdowns per game.
13:19If we eliminate that coming off this knee injury, it's certainly not ideal.
13:24And the other issue that makes it tough on Mahomes for me right now is stackability.
13:30I talked about the Rasheed Rice situation last week.
13:34That's a mess. I don't have a lot of interest in Travis Kelsey.
13:39I like Kenneth Walker a lot, but he's unlikely to play in the two and four minute drill stuff where running backs can rack up catches.
13:49I'm okay with Xavier Worthy. Can do some stacking there, but it's far from thrilling.
13:54So I easily prefer Jalen Hurts to Mahomes. I also prefer Brock Purdy to Mahomes.
14:00Stafford, Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. Just easier stuff to stack.
14:04So I just think there's a lot of quarterbacks in this range where Mahomes goes that are cleaner options.
14:11And like, am I going to get burned? I don't see Mahomes returning to the early career, deep passing rate, really high touchdown rate.
14:20That's not the way NFL offense is played now.
14:24And I'm also worried about the rushing. So yeah, I don't want zero Mahomes, but it's just tough for me on him right now at this ADP.
14:34All right. That is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
14:40Appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to hit subscribe on our free YouTube page so we can continue to bring you the
14:48shows you cannot fathom living without like this one.
14:52Also remember the exposure tracker for best ball is free on Solver.
14:56Just need an account. Highly, highly recommend that if you're playing a lot of best ball.
15:02For Bruce Luke. For Bruce and Ryan. For Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world.
15:09I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.